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Razor Shines
12-02-2010, 05:59 PM
The Chicago White Sox are closing in on a four-year, $56-million deal for free-agent slugger Adam Dunn, according to a major-league source with knowledge of the situation.


http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2010/12/chicago-white-sox-closing-in-on-four-year-56-million-deal-for-slugger-adam-dunn.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+LAT_Sports_Blog+%28The+Fabulous +Forum%29

I like it. I like that he won't be in the NL Central and he'll likely thrive as a part time 1st baseman and DH.

Unassisted
12-02-2010, 06:05 PM
Wonder how he'll get along with Ozzie.

edabbs44
12-02-2010, 06:14 PM
USA Today saying it is done, pending a physical

I(heart)Freel
12-02-2010, 06:15 PM
Embrace your inner DH, Adam!

Johnny Footstool
12-02-2010, 06:18 PM
Embrace your inner DH, Adam!

Also, embrace 600 career home runs.

indy_dave00
12-02-2010, 06:19 PM
He's also only getting $56 million over 4 years.

OnBaseMachine
12-02-2010, 06:19 PM
Great deal for both sides. It's nice to see Dunner land with a contender. I wish him the best, he'll always be one of my favorites.

WMR
12-02-2010, 06:20 PM
He's also only getting $56 million over 4 years.

Yeah, I hope he can scrape by...

WMR
12-02-2010, 06:20 PM
Also, embrace 600 career home runs.

Hope he chooses a Reds cap for that HOF bust. :D

westofyou
12-02-2010, 06:23 PM
He's also only getting $56 million over 4 years.

14 million bucks a year, or essentially more than any other Red has ever made in salary.

Yet it's "only" 56 for 4 years eh?

Redsfan320
12-02-2010, 06:24 PM
Hope he chooses a Reds cap for that HOF bust.

If he does go on to get 600 and make HOF, there is a decent chance the HOF chooses the Reds cap for him, isn't there?

320

mdccclxix
12-02-2010, 06:24 PM
I feel like he's finally found where he belongs, although that Ozzie factor could ruin that idea.

lollipopcurve
12-02-2010, 06:24 PM
Good homer-hitting park.

RedsBaron
12-02-2010, 06:28 PM
Good luck to Dunn, who finally will play on a team that puts him at his natural position of DH.

crazybob60
12-02-2010, 06:29 PM
I feel like he's finally found where he belongs, although that Ozzie factor could ruin that idea.

I really don't think that the Ozzie factor will be that big of a deal, especially with Dunn....but I could be wrong, I have been before.

OnBaseMachine
12-02-2010, 06:33 PM
Ryan Zimmerman's reaction to Adam Dunn going to the White Sox: "Adam is one of the most underrated players in the game. The contract is deserved for what he does every year. Obviously, I wish he could be on my team, but in the end, he has to do what is best for his family. He gets respected and gets what he deserves. It’s good for him.”

http://twitter.com/washingnats

Agreed, Ryan. Dunner is one of the most underrated players in the game, and in Reds history. The guy is an absolute stud at the plate. I wish he was still a Red. Yeah, his defense was frustrating but at least he made up for it with his bat.

RedsManRick
12-02-2010, 06:42 PM
I can see Dunn and Buehrle becoming good friends -- very similar personalities. I'll have to get down to the Cell a few times next season rocking some Reds gear in support.

Raisor
12-02-2010, 06:49 PM
Good for Adam and the Sox

Joseph
12-02-2010, 07:03 PM
Good deal for Dunn.

As to the HOF talk, if he gets to 600 and has HOF consideration, I think it'll depend greatly on what the Sox do over the course of the deal. If he hits say 200 HR for the Sox and they win another WS, he probably goes in as a member of the Sox.

traderumor
12-02-2010, 07:10 PM
Ryan Zimmerman's reaction to Adam Dunn going to the White Sox: "Adam is one of the most underrated players in the game. The contract is deserved for what he does every year. Obviously, I wish he could be on my team, but in the end, he has to do what is best for his family. He gets respected and gets what he deserves. Its good for him.

http://twitter.com/washingnats

Agreed, Ryan. Dunner is one of the most underrated players in the game, and in Reds history. The guy is an absolute stud at the plate. I wish he was still a Red. Yeah, his defense was frustrating but at least he made up for it with his bat.Oh please, doing what is best for his family. It is doing what is best for his investment portfolio. He is a millionaire many times over--maximizing your return it is, taking care of one's family it is not.

Sorry, that is offensive every time I read it when so many of us reading this stuff is to trying to scratch enough money together enough money to see ONE freaking game because of the salaries these guys make. They are so out of touch with reality it is sickening. I don't how the old timers that did not benefit from this millionaire era could not possibly be bitter when they read those type of comments.

Johnny Footstool
12-02-2010, 07:24 PM
Oh please, doing what is best for his family. It is doing what is best for his investment portfolio. He is a millionaire many times over--maximizing your return it is, taking care of one's family it is not.

Sorry, that is offensive every time I read it when so many of us reading this stuff is to trying to scratch enough money together enough money to see ONE freaking game because of the salaries these guys make. They are so out of touch with reality it is sickening. I don't how the old timers that did not benefit from this millionaire era could not possibly be bitter when they read those type of comments.

Building your bank account is generally a good thing for your family, and for your children's families as well. I applaud the players who turn down bigger deals to stay in a place where they are happy, but I don't fault any player for taking the largest contract offered.

CTA513
12-02-2010, 07:30 PM
This time he at least went to a team that has a chance to contend unlike when he went to the Nationals.

Blitz Dorsey
12-02-2010, 07:39 PM
I like it. A good fit for Dunn and a good deal for both sides. In fact, I'm surprised he got $14 mil a year. I thought he'd be capped at about $12 mil (made $10 mil each of the last two years). Good for him though. And if I'm a White Sox fan, I'm happy about the deal.

*BaseClogger*
12-02-2010, 07:48 PM
Sorry, that is offensive every time I read it when so many of us reading this stuff is to trying to scratch enough money together enough money to see ONE freaking game because of the salaries these guys make.

That's not how ticket pricing works... at all. It has a lot more to do with supply/demand and what your fellow fans are willing to play for a ticket...

traderumor
12-02-2010, 08:03 PM
That's not how ticket pricing works... at all. It has a lot more to do with supply/demand and what your fellow fans are willing to play for a ticket...As a Finance Director, I understand Econ 101. Higher salaries make it more expensive for me to go see a Reds game and sit somewhere besides the bleachers and eat a hot dog. Baseball is still a bargain compared to other sports, but that still doesn't mean my modest, middle income can afford much more than a game a year. It is silly to say that ticket prices are not driven by the item that takes up 70% of the budget.

traderumor
12-02-2010, 08:08 PM
Building your bank account is generally a good thing for your family, and for your children's families as well. I applaud the players who turn down bigger deals to stay in a place where they are happy, but I don't fault any player for taking the largest contract offered.I don't know, rich people seem as much, if not more miserable, than us poor working stiffs. My objection was the cliche Zimmerman spouted that "he was taking care of his family," as if he was taking a promotion as manager of Wendy's that required a transfer. When you work with the poor every day as I do, those kind of comments come off as ridiculous.

Anyhow, sorry for derailing the topic for my soapboxing.

membengal
12-02-2010, 08:12 PM
14 million bucks a year, or essentially more than any other Red has ever made in salary.

Yet it's "only" 56 for 4 years eh?

This. Bumped for truth.

corkedbat
12-03-2010, 12:27 AM
Wonder if it might make them a little more agreeable to moving Carlos Quentin?

AtomicDumpling
12-03-2010, 12:50 AM
As a Finance Director, I understand Econ 101. Higher salaries make it more expensive for me to go see a Reds game and sit somewhere besides the bleachers and eat a hot dog. Baseball is still a bargain compared to other sports, but that still doesn't mean my modest, middle income can afford much more than a game a year. It is silly to say that ticket prices are not driven by the item that takes up 70% of the budget.

Tickets, like all other products, are priced based on what people are willing to pay rather than how much it costs to build the product. If fans were not willing to pay so much for the tickets then player salaries would never have gotten so high, not the other way around. Even if players had tiny salaries ticket prices would still not be reduced -- the owners would just make even higher profits,.

MWM
12-03-2010, 01:03 AM
As a Finance Director, I understand Econ 101. Higher salaries make it more expensive for me to go see a Reds game and sit somewhere besides the bleachers and eat a hot dog. Baseball is still a bargain compared to other sports, but that still doesn't mean my modest, middle income can afford much more than a game a year. It is silly to say that ticket prices are not driven by the item that takes up 70% of the budget.

Actually, ticket prices are much more a determinant for salaries than the other way around. Ticket prices are, or at least should be, determined based on the prices that maximize revenue. They can get what they can for tickets regardless of how much their expenses are.

Ron Madden
12-03-2010, 05:03 AM
Oh please, doing what is best for his family. It is doing what is best for his investment portfolio. He is a millionaire many times over--maximizing your return it is, taking care of one's family it is not.

Sorry, that is offensive every time I read it when so many of us reading this stuff is to trying to scratch enough money together enough money to see ONE freaking game because of the salaries these guys make. They are so out of touch with reality it is sickening. I don't how the old timers that did not benefit from this millionaire era could not possibly be bitter when they read those type of comments.



Some of the old timers might be bitter but every single one of them would"ve signed a contract like this if given the chance.

I've been a workin' class stiff all my life, I don't begrudge any of these guys making as much money as they can in order to provide security for themselves and their families.

I'm an Adam Dunn Fan. I wish him nothing but the best. :thumbup:

PuffyPig
12-03-2010, 08:52 AM
A littel surprise Dunn got that much money for 4 years, after playing the last two years for less money.

His K's were up last year, his walks were way down and he posted close to the worse OBA of his career.

At 31, I expect his skills to erode quite quickly, and last year may have been the start of that.

_Sir_Charles_
12-03-2010, 10:49 AM
Hope he chooses a Reds cap for that HOF bust. :D :eek: You're not actually serious with this are you?!?

_Sir_Charles_
12-03-2010, 10:56 AM
A littel surprise Dunn got that much money for 4 years, after playing the last two years for less money.

His K's were up last year, his walks were way down and he posted close to the worse OBA of his career.

At 31, I expect his skills to erode quite quickly, and last year may have been the start of that.

This.

I like Adam, very much so. But Puffy's spot on here. I can't see ANY way he's even close to HoF material at the end of his career.

traderumor
12-03-2010, 10:57 AM
Tickets, like all other products, are priced based on what people are willing to pay rather than how much it costs to build the product. If fans were not willing to pay so much for the tickets then player salaries would never have gotten so high, not the other way around. Even if players had tiny salaries ticket prices would still not be reduced -- the owners would just make even higher profits,.Trust me, I get the law of supply and demand. However, prices for existing products that have a market will increase as costs to produce the product increase. That is just as elementary as what you are saying. Of course, if people aren't willing to buy the product at that price, then prices will fall and the business will lose money.

I do think you have the cart before the horse, though. Labor union, free agency, rising salaries, rising ticket prices. Really, the enormous salaries have been fed by tv contracts, so I think you have that fact mistaken as well. That also is the primary generator of the enormous popularity of the game.

This is all much more complex and I think all the attempts to explain the economics of the game, including mine, fall short of identifying the direct cause and effect of how expensive it is to go to a ballgame and have non-bleacher seats and eat a dog. But certainly we all can agree that multi-million dollar salaries for even average ballplayers have not helped reduce ticket prices.

traderumor
12-03-2010, 11:03 AM
Actually, ticket prices are much more a determinant for salaries than the other way around. Ticket prices are, or at least should be, determined based on the prices that maximize revenue. They can get what they can for tickets regardless of how much their expenses are.A vivid example of oversimplification. Costs are always going to be a factor in price setting. Any business that doesn't will not last very long.

westofyou
12-03-2010, 11:06 AM
This.

I like Adam, very much so. But Puffy's spot on here. I can't see ANY way he's even close to HoF material at the end of his career.

Yes, we got that from your prior post, he's a one trick pony, others have said...he'll never get a multi year contract, he'll never get over 10 million, we've heard it all before..

He's this generations Joe Adcock, all bat nothing else, yadda, yadda, yadda.

I'll wait and see myself.

traderumor
12-03-2010, 11:14 AM
Some of the old timers might be bitter but every single one of them would"ve signed a contract like this if given the chance.

I've been a workin' class stiff all my life, I don't begrudge any of these guys making as much money as they can in order to provide security for themselves and their families.

I'm an Adam Dunn Fan. I wish him nothing but the best. :thumbup:

Don't get me wrong, if I had a talent that allowed me to be a multimillionaire, I would take the money as well.


You should notice that I did not say one word about Adam Dunn maximizing his revenue potential. My comment was directed at the idea that $56M is referred to as "taking care of one's family." That is a fantasy world comment.

Buying life insurance to cover the mortgage is a better example of "taking care of one's family." Paying the rent would be another example. But choosing $56M from Chicago vs. whatever others were offering, say for sake of argument was $45M, taking the higher offer is not "taking care of one's family." Let's see if he mentions the great Chicago school system as part of his decision making process at his press conference. Maybe now he can afford Christmas presents!

Hoosier Red
12-03-2010, 11:41 AM
A littel surprise Dunn got that much money for 4 years, after playing the last two years for less money.

His K's were up last year, his walks were way down and he posted close to the worse OBA of his career.

At 31, I expect his skills to erode quite quickly, and last year may have been the start of that.

That's what I found to be most interesting. Two years ago, Dunn had to sign with the Nationals because no contender would touch him. Now after he has unquestionably become less valuable defensively(he's gone from being a poor LF who can also maybe play 1b, to a poor 1b who will probably have to DH)
and he's not producing at quite the same levels offensively, and he's worth more money and for more years?

Hoosier Red
12-03-2010, 11:51 AM
Don't get me wrong, if I had a talent that allowed me to be a multimillionaire, I would take the money as well.


You should notice that I did not say one word about Adam Dunn maximizing his revenue potential. My comment was directed at the idea that $56M is referred to as "taking care of one's family." That is a fantasy world comment.

Buying life insurance to cover the mortgage is a better example of "taking care of one's family." Paying the rent would be another example. But choosing $56M from Chicago vs. whatever others were offering, say for sake of argument was $45M, taking the higher offer is not "taking care of one's family." Let's see if he mentions the great Chicago school system as part of his decision making process at his press conference. Maybe now he can afford Christmas presents!

I understand your frustration Traderumor because the comment does show the disconnect from reality most players have, but 1) This was one athlete saying it about Dunn, and "Taking care of his family" is the preferred euphemism for players leaving. It's like when a boss fires you for spending all your work time on Redszone, and announces in the company wide memo, that Traderumor is leaving the organization. We thank him for his service and wish him all the best. 2) Even if his other decisions were better than what you and I could ever afford, he's still making the best decision given the choices he had.

westofyou
12-03-2010, 12:21 PM
That's what I found to be most interesting. Two years ago, Dunn had to sign with the Nationals because no contender would touch him. Now after he has unquestionably become less valuable defensively(he's gone from being a poor LF who can also maybe play 1b, to a poor 1b who will probably have to DH)
and he's not producing at quite the same levels offensively, and he's worth more money and for more years?

Economy is less unstable, he has garnered more good press for his non baseball skills since he left Cincinnati, leader, hard worker, good guy. That likely added to the intangibles... kinda sad he had to leave town to get some of those praises.

Wheelhouse
12-03-2010, 12:22 PM
I think this is wonderful. I wish the best for Adam, and I hope no ticket buying baseball fan has to watch him play defense again!

traderumor
12-03-2010, 12:58 PM
Economy is less unstable, he has garnered more good press for his non baseball skills since he left Cincinnati, leader, hard worker, good guy. That likely added to the intangibles... kinda sad he had to leave town to get some of those praises.or get away from certain laissez-faire attitudes on the team during his stay here. The org. culture has changed dramatically since his time in Cincy.

westofyou
12-03-2010, 01:00 PM
or get away from certain laissez-faire attitudes on the team during his stay here. The org. culture has changed dramatically since his time in Cincy.

True, everyone needs a kick in the rear now and then. Landscape change infuses personal change quite often.

redsfandan
12-03-2010, 02:43 PM
That's what I found to be most interesting. Two years ago, Dunn had to sign with the Nationals because no contender would touch him. Now after he has unquestionably become less valuable defensively(he's gone from being a poor LF who can also maybe play 1b, to a poor 1b who will probably have to DH)
and he's not producing at quite the same levels offensively, and he's worth more money and for more years?
Right now Dunn would be their 1st baseman. Chicago might still resign Konerko but there's really not a big difference between the two defensively. But Dunn at 1st or DH is more valuable than Dunn in left. His defense in left negated alot of his value. That doesn't happen as much when he's at 1st since he's not THAT bad of a fielder there as he was in left. And being a dh won't make him less valuable. If anything it makes him more valuable. Yeah, he won't be able to help the team defensively as a dh but he won't hurt the team defensively either.

Offensively, he'll be in a better lineup and a better park. Because of those two factors I wouldn't be surprised if his stats improve. The market for players has improved so they're getting more money than they did a couple years ago. And if a team wants power, there really isn't a better free agent available to give it.

TRF
12-03-2010, 03:14 PM
Economy is less unstable, he has garnered more good press for his non baseball skills since he left Cincinnati, leader, hard worker, good guy. That likely added to the intangibles... kinda sad he had to leave town to get some of those praises.

Fay in Cincinnati, Boswell in Washington.

nuff said.

Johnny Footstool
12-03-2010, 03:29 PM
Right now Dunn would be their 1st baseman. Chicago might still resign Konerko but there's really not a big difference between the two defensively. But Dunn at 1st or DH is more valuable than Dunn in left. His defense in left negated alot of his value. That doesn't happen as much when he's at 1st since he's not THAT bad of a fielder there as he was in left. And being a dh won't make him less valuable. If anything it makes him more valuable. Yeah, he won't be able to help the team defensively as a dh but he won't hurt the team defensively either.

Offensively, he'll be in a better lineup and a better park. Because of those two factors I wouldn't be surprised if his stats improve. The market for players has improved so they're getting more money than they did a couple years ago. And if a team wants power, there really isn't a better free agent available to give it.

Depending on the stats you look at, Dunn is usually in the middle of the pack defensively as a 1B. Worse than Votto and Pujols, better than Howard, Fielder, and Cabrera. His closest comp is probably Billy Butler.

FYI, in a lot of those stats, Teixiera is only rated slightly better than Dunn.

TheNext44
12-03-2010, 04:03 PM
Hope he chooses a Reds cap for that HOF bust. :D

Why wouldn't he be wearing a Reds cap on his Reds Hall of Fame bust?

Razor Shines
12-03-2010, 04:22 PM
I think this is wonderful. I wish the best for Adam, and I hope no ticket buying baseball fan has to watch him play defense again!

I hope ticket buying Reds fans don't have to watch Jonny Gomes play defense any more, especially since his bat doesn't make up for much of it.

_Sir_Charles_
12-03-2010, 04:53 PM
Yes, we got that from your prior post, he's a one trick pony, others have said...he'll never get a multi year contract, he'll never get over 10 million, we've heard it all before..

He's this generations Joe Adcock, all bat nothing else, yadda, yadda, yadda.

I'll wait and see myself.

Ummm...okay. Not sure where you read all of THAT from my post. As I said, I LIKE Dunner. I think he's a great ballplayer/person. But he's a powerhitter who draws a ton of walks. There are a LOT of guys who meet those criteria and never come CLOSE to the Hall. He's also got a body-type that doesn't tend to hold up well with age. Seems to me that you're reading an awfully lot into my post that simply wasn't there.

westofyou
12-03-2010, 04:54 PM
There are a LOT of guys who meet those criteria and never come CLOSE to the Hall.

List some please.

_Sir_Charles_
12-03-2010, 04:55 PM
List some please.

Okay...hang on.

Now it's possible that SOME of these guys might make it into the hall (a few I'd think have VERY good shots...much better than Adam, but anyway...here's a few)

Frank Thomas
Gary Sheffield
Fred McGriff
Carlos Delgado
Jose Canseco
Dave Kingman
Juan Gonzalez
Mike Piazza
Jason Giambi
Andruw Jones
Andres Galarraga
Dale Murphy
Joe Carter
Jim Thome
Darrell Evans
Dwight Evans
Rafael Palmeiro
Todd Helton
Boog Powell

Razor Shines
12-03-2010, 05:05 PM
A littel surprise Dunn got that much money for 4 years, after playing the last two years for less money.

His K's were up last year, his walks were way down and he posted close to the worse OBA of his career.

At 31, I expect his skills to erode quite quickly, and last year may have been the start of that.

In terms of OPS+ he had two of the better seasons of his career in Wash. I expect his HR numbers to get back over 40 being in Chicago.

Razor Shines
12-03-2010, 05:14 PM
Okay...hang on.

Now it's possible that SOME of these guys might make it into the hall (a few I'd think have VERY good shots...much better than Adam, but anyway...here's a few)

Frank Thomas
Gary Sheffield
Fred McGriff
Carlos Delgado
Jose Canseco
Dave Kingman
Juan Gonzalez
Mike Piazza
Jason Giambi
Andruw Jones
Andres Galarraga
Dale Murphy
Joe Carter
Jim Thome
Darrell Evans
Dwight Evans
Rafael Palmeiro
Todd Helton
Boog Powell

Kinda silly to list guys who aren't eligible yet, IMO. Not one of the guys eligible have 500 HR and aren't linked directly to roids so should probably take them out as well. What you have left is a bunch of guys with less than 500 HRs.

So we're back to how AD will age. If as you think he falls off very quickly and doesn't get 500 then sure he won't get in, but if he has 3-4 more very good years and a couple decent years gets 500+ he's probably gonna get in.

westofyou
12-03-2010, 05:14 PM
Frank Thomas - Sure HOF
Gary Sheffield - Hit for Average, not a Dunn Comp
Fred McGriff - Didn't walk like Dunn
Carlos Delgado - Injuries out early
Jose Canseco - Walks?
Dave Kingman - Walks and Kingman?
Juan Gonzalez - Walks?
Mike Piazza - Sure HOF
Jason Giambi - Possible, not as much power
Andruw Jones - walks? Dunn is a better hitter
Andres Galarraga - he actually hit for average
Dale Murphy - Short career, isn't a Dunn comp at all
Joe Carter - walks?
Jim Thome - Dead on Comp
Darrell Evans - Most under rated player of my youth, fairly good comp
Dwight Evans - Evans was also under rated
Rafael Palmeiro - HOF likely
Todd Helton - he hit for average
Boog Powell - Got fat before his time, fairly good comp

_Sir_Charles_
12-03-2010, 05:54 PM
Kinda silly to list guys who aren't eligible yet, IMO. Not one of the guys eligible have 500 HR and aren't linked directly to roids so should probably take them out as well. What you have left is a bunch of guys with less than 500 HRs.

So we're back to how AD will age. If as you think he falls off very quickly and doesn't get 500 then sure he won't get in, but if he has 3-4 more very good years and a couple decent years gets 500+ he's probably gonna get in.

Yes, it all hinges on how he ages and his health. His body type doesn't bode well for EITHER unfortunately. As for listing guys who aren't eligible yet...neither's Dunn. I was only pointing to somewhat comparable players. There are obviously more but it was just a quick glance.

The thing I think people are overlooking is the fact that the so-called barrier numbers 500 HRs, 600 Hrs, etc are getting reduced in importance due to the circumstances of the past 10-20 years. Hall of Fame voters are going to want MORE from a player than just bombs. They're going to want to see batting average, defense, gold gloves, mvp's, all-star appearances. Unfortunately for Adam, those things don't lean in his favor either. I wasn't trying to knock Adam or anything...just saying that the odds of him even being remotely considered for the Hall are VERY long in my opinion.

WMR
12-03-2010, 05:59 PM
Listing Kingman as a comp for Dunn tells me just about all I need to know about someone's opinion regarding Dunn (i.e. whether or not it's a horrible opinion worthy of being disregarded).

The Thome comparison is the most spot-on as WOY pointed out. If he plays 6-9 more seasons and puts up consistent 30-40 HR seasons during that time period he will eclipse 600 home runs and will stand an EXCELLENT chance of being enshrined in Cooperstown.

As I have pointed out in the past, another thing that will work in Dunn's favor is that the intelligence level concerning SABRE players amongst those who vote for the HOF will most certainly be greater 20 years from now than it is today.

_Sir_Charles_
12-03-2010, 06:00 PM
Frank Thomas - Sure HOF
Gary Sheffield - Hit for Average, not a Dunn Comp
Fred McGriff - Didn't walk like Dunn
Carlos Delgado - Injuries out early
Jose Canseco - Walks?
Dave Kingman - Walks and Kingman?
Juan Gonzalez - Walks?
Mike Piazza - Sure HOF
Jason Giambi - Possible, not as much power
Andruw Jones - walks? Dunn is a better hitter
Andres Galarraga - he actually hit for average
Dale Murphy - Short career, isn't a Dunn comp at all
Joe Carter - walks?
Jim Thome - Dead on Comp
Darrell Evans - Most under rated player of my youth, fairly good comp
Dwight Evans - Evans was also under rated
Rafael Palmeiro - HOF likely
Todd Helton - he hit for average
Boog Powell - Got fat before his time, fairly good comp

Sorry, I didn't have time to do a ton of in depth research. I pulled up the HR list, wrote down some comparables...then pulled up the walk list. Some of the HR guys don't walk like Dunn does, but they do other things better than he does too.

As for the short career comments...we don't know about Adam yet either. If the guy stays healthy and continues to put up 40/100/100 numbers every year...sure, he's a sure thing. But the odds of him doing that for much longer (or at ALL) are VERY poor.

Side note...you really think Palmeiro gets in the hall? I don't think he's got a shot in you-know-where. The voters are going to look VERY poorly on the steroid guys IMO.

Lastly...Kingman. :O) Like I said, I was putting down guys off the HR list first. The walks are obviously non-existent for him compared to Dunn. But they DO share some similarities whether people want to acknowledge them or not. High HR numbers, low average, high K numbers, poor defense.

westofyou
12-03-2010, 06:02 PM
Side note...you really think Palmeiro gets in the hall? I don't think he's got a shot in you-know-where. The voters are going to look VERY poorly on the steroid guys IMO.

3000 hits/500 HR's - eventually he gets in, it might take awhile.

Ron Madden
12-03-2010, 06:02 PM
Yes, it all hinges on how he ages and his health. His body type doesn't bode well for EITHER unfortunately. As for listing guys who aren't eligible yet...neither's Dunn. I was only pointing to somewhat comparable players. There are obviously more but it was just a quick glance.

The thing I think people are overlooking is the fact that the so-called barrier numbers 500 HRs, 600 Hrs, etc are getting reduced in importance due to the circumstances of the past 10-20 years. Hall of Fame voters are going to want MORE from a player than just bombs. They're going to want to see batting average, defense, gold gloves, mvp's, all-star appearances. Unfortunately for Adam, those things don't lean in his favor either. I wasn't trying to knock Adam or anything...just saying that the odds of him even being remotely considered for the Hall are VERY long in my opinion.

In my opinion using All Star appearances for HOF inclusion is a joke.

WMR
12-03-2010, 06:03 PM
The guy is built like an ox, is now going to be DHing more and more as he ages, and has never had a serious injury... THAT'S the guy who you're counting on to break down?

I think he'll maintain at or near his current offensive production levels until at least his late 30s.

He's definitely done the work in the first part of his career to give himself a great chance at making it (or at least being HOF-worthy).

_Sir_Charles_
12-03-2010, 06:06 PM
In my opinion using All Star appearances for HOF inclusion is a joke.

I don't disagree...but it IS something the voters will look at. Especially in today's game with the numbers not being as trustworthy. They'll have to look at OTHER things besides the traditional statistics...and I don't see them looking heavily at sabr-stats yet either...unfortunately for Adam

Roy Tucker
12-03-2010, 07:07 PM
I understand your frustration Traderumor because the comment does show the disconnect from reality most players have, but 1) This was one athlete saying it about Dunn, and "Taking care of his family" is the preferred euphemism for players leaving. It's like when a boss fires you for spending all your work time on Redszone, and announces in the company wide memo, that Traderumor is leaving the organization. We thank him for his service and wish him all the best. 2) Even if his other decisions were better than what you and I could ever afford, he's still making the best decision given the choices he had.

I agree with the comment that its a euphemism. More polite than "glad to see he went after the biggest bucks, now he can make it an even dozen Bentleys".

My favorite was when a one-time poobah gets moved out of heading up a major division and goes to "special projects", i.e. we'll pay you 6 months to find another job. And then the blah-blah when he leaves of 'we wish him well". Yeah right.

if you ever fond yourself moved to "special projects", shine up that resume.

Razor Shines
12-03-2010, 07:43 PM
I don't disagree...but it IS something the voters will look at. Especially in today's game with the numbers not being as trustworthy. They'll have to look at OTHER things besides the traditional statistics...and I don't see them looking heavily at sabr-stats yet either...unfortunately for Adam

I like WMRs point that in 20 years there will likely be voters looking things differently. I think they're more likely to look at OPS as much if not more than BA.

_Sir_Charles_
12-03-2010, 07:49 PM
I like WMRs point that in 20 years there will likely be voters looking things differently. I think they're more likely to look at OPS as much if not more than BA.

For Dunn's sake, I hope so. But that's looking at things from the most positive outlook for Adam I'd think. The opposite end of the spectrum, they'd become even MORE hardliners for tradition (and traditional stats) due to the sacking of the historical stats by PED'ers. The HoF voters aren't historically known for accepting change. IMO, the biggest change they need to make is WHO does the voting.

PuffyPig
12-03-2010, 08:28 PM
In terms of OPS+ he had two of the better seasons of his career in Wash. I expect his HR numbers to get back over 40 being in Chicago.

FWIW, his BABIP in those two years is about .030 above his career average, and higher than any other year.

AtomicDumpling
12-03-2010, 09:26 PM
A littel surprise Dunn got that much money for 4 years, after playing the last two years for less money.

His K's were up last year, his walks were way down and he posted close to the worse OBA of his career.

At 31, I expect his skills to erode quite quickly, and last year may have been the start of that.

The reason he didn't make big bucks the last two years was because he happened to be a free agent at the exact same time the economy collapsed, so he wisely signed a short contract that would allow him to hit free agency again sooner. It paid off this year with a much better contract that better matches his skills to the market rate for star hitters.

I don't think Dunn's hitting skills have eroded at all. Any small drop in stats can easily be explained by moving to a pitcher's park and a lineup where he is surrounded by weak hitters. Even then his stats were still stellar with the Nationals. He has a chance to get even better stats now with the White Sox being a much better team in a hitter's park.

edabbs44
12-03-2010, 09:47 PM
I like WMRs point that in 20 years there will likely be voters looking things differently. I think they're more likely to look at OPS as much if not more than BA.

Those same voters would probably consider defense a little more as well, which probably wouldn't help his case.

PuffyPig
12-03-2010, 10:15 PM
I don't think Dunn's hitting skills have eroded at all. Any small drop in stats can easily be explained by moving to a pitcher's park and a lineup where he is surrounded by weak hitters. Even then his stats were still stellar with the Nationals. He has a chance to get even better stats now with the White Sox being a much better team in a hitter's park.

Dunn experienced a 30% decline in walk rate in 2010.

That's a huge drop.

redsfandan
12-04-2010, 12:55 AM
Listing Kingman as a comp for Dunn tells me just about all I need to know about someone's opinion regarding Dunn (i.e. whether or not it's a horrible opinion worthy of being disregarded).

The Thome comparison is the most spot-on as WOY pointed out. If he plays 6-9 more seasons and puts up consistent 30-40 HR seasons during that time period he will eclipse 600 home runs and will stand an EXCELLENT chance of being enshrined in Cooperstown.

As I have pointed out in the past, another thing that will work in Dunn's favor is that the intelligence level concerning SABRE players amongst those who vote for the HOF will most certainly be greater 20 years from now than it is today.

Some of us have pointed out how Thome is a pretty good comp for Dunn. But not a perfect one. Dunn has a career line of .250 .381 .521 .902. At virtually the same point in his career Thome had a line of .288 .417 .558 .975. Thome now has a line of .278 .404 .559 .963 and he's almost 10 years older than Dunn. Do people think Dunn will still have a .900+ ops when he's done playing?

Thome has had 5 all-star appearances, led his league in homers, been on several playoff teams, has been one of the top 10 vote getters for the MVP a handful of times, and has a shot at 600 homers next year. Dunn has 1 all-star appearance, his best finish for the MVP was 21st last year, and he has to hope that the next decade is good to him.

Defense is what will hurt both of them the most. Their offense not only has to be impressive on it's own but has to make up for the damage their defense, or lack of it, will do in the minds of the voters. Signing with a contender helps. Being a dh on that contender... not as much. Do people think Thome will be a lock for the HOF with the label 'dh' hanging over his head?

Dunn has a shot at the HOF but I don't think people should get their hopes up. It's possible that Dunn ends up just like every other player that was good but just not quite good enough.

dfs
12-04-2010, 02:25 AM
Joe Carter? Kingman? Really

One of the reasons to believe Dunn will age well is how durable he's been. They guy started early and he's played in a LOT of games already.

One of the reasons to believe that Dunn will not age well is that he's a walks and power guy. It's a great skillset, but it could fall off a cliff fast and when it does, he does not have other skills to keep him in the league.

Look at baseball reference's most comparable hitters at the age of 30

Canseco - If he had been able to stay in baseball after the age of 36 he would have been in the HOF. Was still an effective hitter at 36, but the roid issue and his mouth got him kicked out of baseball. Had "health" issues that in retrospect were lifestyle problems that Dunn should be able to avoid.

Rocky Colavito. I don't know what to make of his post 30 career, but he was done at 34. It was a long time ago. Cliff meet career.

Killebrew. Hall of Famer. Was a very effective hitter till 36 and was in the game till 39.

Sosa - Not a good comp. Had other baseball skills. Roids. Still, out of baseball at 37.

Reggie - Hall of Famer. Not a good comp. Had other baseball skills. Stayed in the league till 41.

Daryl - Could still hit at 37. Drugs pushed him out of the league.

Ralph Kiner - Hall of Famer. Done at 32. Dunn started earlier and will last longer.

Thome - Active at 39.

Barry - Was putting up unreal numbers as a 42 year old. Roids ended career more than an inablity to hit.

Boog - Was essentially done at 33. Prime example of a player falling off a cliff.

Cansecoe/Daryl/Sammy/Barry a bunch of guys forced out of the game due to lifestyle issues or roids....that's not Dunn. Still most of them had pretty impressive careers and even Daryl was around at 36.

Killebrew/Jackson/Thome Power hitters who got the aura of "winner" and stayed around as elder statesmen.

Boog/Kiner/Colvetto..... guys whose career fell off a cliff in the early 30's.

A couple of things pop to mind. The guys whose career fell off the cliff all played in the pre-free agency era. Careers last longer now simply because there is a ton more money to be had by staying around.

The elder statesman role depends on being perceived as a winner. I suspect there is something to be said for players who have been on winning teams having more fun and wanting to stay around longer.

What I'm getting at in a roundabout way is that I wonder if the length of Adam Dunn's career might be directly related to the fortunes of the Chicago White Sox over the next couple of years. If they win some games, Dunn might gain the reputation of being a leader of men that can be counted on to produce when it comes to clutch situations. On the other hand, if the White Sox implode then maybe Dunn runs into some minor physical issues and says "bag this. I'm done."

The final thing that pops into my mind....All of the guys on that list are either in the hall of fame or were perceived to have hall of fame talent. These guys are some of the most recognizable recent names in the game. You recognize many of them on a first name basis. That's the fame part of the hall of fame.

Matt700wlw
12-04-2010, 04:32 AM
Looking back, I think a lot of the Dunn bashing came from frustration to the team and franchise as a whole. 40, 100, 100 is consistant offense. A bunch of strike outs is part of that. BA...eh..he's still a career .250, I think...

He wasn't a fit in Cincy. He wouldn't be one now, since they've changed their approach. Maybe he can be a fit for the Sox.

I wish him the best.

Matt700wlw
12-04-2010, 04:32 AM
(This post replaces a duplicate)

*BaseClogger*
12-04-2010, 04:53 AM
Some of us have pointed out how Thome is a pretty good comp for Dunn. But not a perfect one. Dunn has a career line of .250 .381 .521 .902. At virtually the same point in his career Thome had a line of .288 .417 .558 .975. Thome now has a line of .278 .404 .559 .963 and he's almost 10 years older than Dunn. Do people think Dunn will still have a .900+ ops when he's done playing?

Different eras, the 90s and 00s-- bring out the OPS+ numbers...

Brutus
12-04-2010, 04:53 AM
Listing Kingman as a comp for Dunn tells me just about all I need to know about someone's opinion regarding Dunn (i.e. whether or not it's a horrible opinion worthy of being disregarded).

The Thome comparison is the most spot-on as WOY pointed out. If he plays 6-9 more seasons and puts up consistent 30-40 HR seasons during that time period he will eclipse 600 home runs and will stand an EXCELLENT chance of being enshrined in Cooperstown.

As I have pointed out in the past, another thing that will work in Dunn's favor is that the intelligence level concerning SABRE players amongst those who vote for the HOF will most certainly be greater 20 years from now than it is today.

There's no such thing as a horrible opinion.

But if anything should be disregarded, it's the idea that Dunn will get to 600 homers. That just isn't likely given his body type and unlikelihood that he will be able to sustain this pace for that much longer.

*BaseClogger*
12-04-2010, 04:55 AM
Trust me, I get the law of supply and demand. However, prices for existing products that have a market will increase as costs to produce the product increase. That is just as elementary as what you are saying. Of course, if people aren't willing to buy the product at that price, then prices will fall and the business will lose money.

I do think you have the cart before the horse, though. Labor union, free agency, rising salaries, rising ticket prices. Really, the enormous salaries have been fed by tv contracts, so I think you have that fact mistaken as well. That also is the primary generator of the enormous popularity of the game.

This is all much more complex and I think all the attempts to explain the economics of the game, including mine, fall short of identifying the direct cause and effect of how expensive it is to go to a ballgame and have non-bleacher seats and eat a dog. But certainly we all can agree that multi-million dollar salaries for even average ballplayers have not helped reduce ticket prices.

http://www.amazon.com/Diamond-Dollars-Economics-Winning-Baseball/dp/0977743632

If I had the book with me I'd quote it, but it literally has a chapter about how raising salary prices has little to do with increasing ticket prices...

Razor Shines
12-04-2010, 06:13 AM
There's no such thing as a horrible opinion.

But if anything should be disregarded, it's the idea that Dunn will get to 600 homers. That just isn't likely given his body type and unlikelihood that he will be able to sustain this pace for that much longer.

The more I think about it, the more I think he'll get 575 or so. Thome is a good body type comp. and he was hitting 40+ HRs through his 35 year old season. Dunn's contract will take him through his 34 YO season. I have to problem thinking he continues to average 38-40 HRs through this contract. That would give him around 510-515 HRs. Then another 3-4 years with some drop to 25-30 per. I think he'll have a shot.

I think he should be a lock at 500+, but that may not be enough for the writers. If he gets 550+ I think he's likely getting in. If he gets 575+, I think he's in for sure.

It'll take a little luck health wise, but he's got a shot.

Strikes Out Looking
12-04-2010, 08:38 AM
Looking back, I think a lot of the Dunn bashing came from frustration to the team and franchise as a whole. 40, 100, 100 is consistant offense. A bunch of strike outs is part of that. BA...eh..he's still a career .250, I think...

He wasn't a fit in Cincy. He wouldn't be one now, since they've changed their approach. Maybe he can be a fit for the Sox.

I wish him the best.

Where's the like or rep points button when you need it?

RedsBaron
12-04-2010, 08:56 AM
The more I think about it, the more I think he'll get 575 or so. Thome is a good body type comp. and he was hitting 40+ HRs through his 35 year old season. Dunn's contract will take him through his 34 YO season. I have to problem thinking he continues to average 38-40 HRs through this contract. That would give him around 510-515 HRs. Then another 3-4 years with some drop to 25-30 per. I think he'll have a shot.

I think he should be a lock at 500+, but that may not be enough for the writers. If he gets 550+ I think he's likely getting in. If he gets 575+, I think he's in for sure.

It'll take a little luck health wise, but he's got a shot.
Baseball-Reference.com shows that the most similar hitter to Dunn at age 30 is Jose Canseco, with a similarity score of 888. The other ten most similar hitters to Dunn at age 30 are, in order, Rocky Colavito, Harmon Killebrew, Sammy Sosa, Reggie Jackson, Darryl Strawberry, Ralph Kiner, Jim Thome, Barry Bonds and Boog Powell.
The Killer, Reggie and Kiner are all in the HOF. Sosa, Thome and Bonds all have the raw stats to justify admission, although it remains to be seen how the stats of Sosa and Bonds will be viewed by voters. Killebrew, Sosa, Reggie, Thome and Bonds all reached 500 career HRs.

redsfandan
12-04-2010, 09:21 AM
Different eras, the 90s and 00s-- bring out the OPS+ numbers...

I'm guessing you want to point to how a 147 career ops+ for Thome and a career 133 ops+ closes the gap (but not all the way). Or did you want to look at the 178 ops+ that Thome had last year when he was 39/40? Thome also had a 155 ops+ in '06 when he was 35/36 and a 150 ops+ in '07 when he was 36/37. (Dunn's best ops+ for a season: 146) And that's where the big question with Dunn comes in: how is he going to age?

I guess the people that think he has an excellent chance at the HOF think that his stats won't slip and that he'll continue to play 158+ games a year. And maybe you guys are right. Maybe nothing will change with him. And maybe Dunn will finally be on a half dozen playoff teams like Thome. Maybe he'll finish in the top 10 for the MVP a few times like Thome. Maybe he'll get a few more all-star appearances to catch up to Thome. Thome also played 3rd for a half dozen years which might help him a little. Dunn? Well...

Here are some awards that Thome has won:

a Silver Slugger award

Comeback Player of the Year award

the Roberto Clemente Award

the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award in 2004

and in a 2005 survey was chosen the "Best Teammate in Major League Baseball" by a wide margin


Here's the awards that Dunn has won:

none


People may not like it but some of those voters will still care about things like playoff appearances, mvp consideration, and awards. And Dunn has just never been known as one of the best players at his position. So, he's a guy that can't afford to see his stats slip or DL stints if he wants to get into the HOF. Again, I'm not saying he doesn't have a shot. I just think Thome has a little better shot.

By the way, Dunn has never had a season where he was one of the top 5 players in his league in ops+. Thome has had 7 seasons in the top 5.

Ron Madden
12-04-2010, 09:34 AM
I wonder how long it'll take Bad Fundamentals to start trolling the White Sox message board? I'd love to see Adam Dunn play at least ten more years and I hope Adam proves all of his detractors wrong by finishing his career in HOF fashion.

Ron Madden
12-04-2010, 09:46 AM
I'm guessing you want to point to how a 147 career ops+ for Thome and a career 133 ops+ closes the gap (but not all the way). Or did you want to look at the 178 ops+ that Thome had last year when he was 39/40? Thome also had a 155 ops+ in '06 when he was 35/36 and a 150 ops+ in '07 when he was 36/37. (Dunn's best ops+ for a season: 146) And that's where the big question with Dunn comes in: how is he going to age?

I guess the people that think he has an excellent chance at the HOF think that his stats won't slip and that he'll continue to play 158+ games a year. And maybe you guys are right. Maybe nothing will change with him. And maybe Dunn will finally be on a half dozen playoff teams like Thome. Maybe he'll finish in the top 10 for the MVP a few times like Thome. Maybe he'll get a few more all-star appearances to catch up to Thome. Thome also played 3rd for a half dozen years which might help him a little. Dunn? Well...

Here are some awards that Thome has won:

a Silver Slugger award

Comeback Player of the Year award

the Roberto Clemente Award

the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award in 2004

and in a 2005 survey was chosen the "Best Teammate in Major League Baseball" by a wide margin


Here's the awards that Dunn has won:

none


People may not like it but some of those voters will still care about things like playoff appearances, mvp consideration, and awards. And Dunn has just never been known as one of the best players at his position. So, he's a guy that can't afford to see his stats slip or DL stints if he wants to get into the HOF. Again, I'm not saying he doesn't have a shot. I just think Thome has a little better shot.

By the way, Dunn has never had a season where he was one of the top 5 players in his league in ops+. Thome has had 7 seasons in the top 5.

Thome has had a great career and should make it to the HOF.

Dunn doesn't have to be better than Thome to have a shot at the HOF, Adam just needs to keep getting on base and putting up the power numbers he always has.

bucksfan2
12-04-2010, 09:51 AM
I wonder how long it'll take Bad Fundamentals to start trolling the White Sox message board? I'd love to see Adam Dunn play at least ten more years and I hope Adam proves all of his detractors wrong by finishing his career in HOF fashion.

I really could care less for Dunn now. He doesn't play for the Reds anymore. He was a nice player for the Reds but thats about it. There was very little winning during his tenure as a Red. IMO I will have more fond memories from Scott Rolen that I do of Adam Dunn. Its not his fault that the Reds didn't win its just the reality of his time as a Red.

I wonder how the White Sox are going to play Dunn and whether or not that will extend his career. He has been very durable during his time in the big leagues but lets be honest, guy is a big dude. Dunn takes a lot of pounding playing day in day out during a baseball season, more so than a smaller guy would. Most larger 1b types extend their career by going to DH but they also seem to break down regardless. And as a White Sox fan I would worry about Dunn's bat speed slowing a little bit as he gets older. We saw it first hand with Jr and how he was forced to start his swing earlier which led to more bad swings and swings and misses. Dunn has such a large swing that slowing it down just a little would not be good.

redsfandan
12-04-2010, 09:58 AM
Thome has had a great career and should make it to the HOF.

Dunn doesn't have to be better than Thome to have a shot at the HOF, Adam just needs to keep getting on base and putting up the power numbers he always has.
No, Dunn doesn't have to be better than Thome to have a shot. But, Thome is one player that Dunn has been compared to as far as HOF chances. To be clear, I really wouldn't care if Dunn makes it. I just don't think his chances are as good as some think.

traderumor
12-04-2010, 10:44 AM
I really could care less for Dunn now. He doesn't play for the Reds anymore. He was a nice player for the Reds but thats about it. There was very little winning during his tenure as a Red. IMO I will have more fond memories from Scott Rolen that I do of Adam Dunn. Its not his fault that the Reds didn't win its just the reality of his time as a Red.

I wonder how the White Sox are going to play Dunn and whether or not that will extend his career. He has been very durable during his time in the big leagues but lets be honest, guy is a big dude. Dunn takes a lot of pounding playing day in day out during a baseball season, more so than a smaller guy would. Most larger 1b types extend their career by going to DH but they also seem to break down regardless. And as a White Sox fan I would worry about Dunn's bat speed slowing a little bit as he gets older. We saw it first hand with Jr and how he was forced to start his swing earlier which led to more bad swings and swings and misses. Dunn has such a large swing that slowing it down just a little would not be good.I also wonder if Dunn has come to terms with DHing or if he has been promised to be in the field most of the time by the White Sox. He made it very clear during his time here that he despised being the DH.

Sea Ray
12-04-2010, 11:04 AM
Adam Dunn will be an interesting HoF discussion when the time comes as will Thome. Folks around here like to crunch numbers but stats alone don't get you into the Hall. Recognition does and he's gotten very little. That has to change. Dunn has made it to only one All Star game in his career and that was nearly 10 yrs ago. Thome's been to 5 of them. If he can't get votes for the All Star game how will he fare garnering HoF votes?

bucksfan2
12-04-2010, 11:09 AM
Adam Dunn will be an interesting HoF discussion when the time comes as will Thome. Folks around here like to crunch numbers but stats alone don't get you into the Hall. Recognition does and he's gotten very little. That has to change. Dunn has made it to only one All Star game in his career and that was nearly 10 yrs ago. Thome's been to 5 of them. If he can't get votes for the All Star game how will he fare garnering HoF votes?

You can crunch number all you want but it ultimately comes down to perception. Was player X a HOF caliber player. While it may look like Thome and Dunn are similar Thome is perceived as a much better player. He played the majority of his baseball years on good clubs (one should have been dynasty). He has big meaningful moments throughout his baseball career.

RedsZone's favorite talk show host made a good point about the HOF. Cowherd was talking about the HOF one day and made the comment if you can't sum up if a player is a HOF player in one short sentence he doesn't belong. If you have to begin to make a place for a certain player in all likelihood he doesn't belong. Dunn should get to the important HR numbers (although it could be debated whether or not those mean anything anymore) but he will need to change his perception if he wants to make it into the hall.

Razor Shines
12-04-2010, 11:45 AM
Adam Dunn will be an interesting HoF discussion when the time comes as will Thome. Folks around here like to crunch numbers but stats alone don't get you into the Hall. Recognition does and he's gotten very little. That has to change. Dunn has made it to only one All Star game in his career and that was nearly 10 yrs ago. Thome's been to 5 of them. If he can't get votes for the All Star game how will he fare garnering HoF votes?

I don't think that Thome will be an interesting HOF discussion at all. He should be in. No question about it in my mind.

Razor Shines
12-04-2010, 11:49 AM
I really could care less for Dunn now. He doesn't play for the Reds anymore. He was a nice player for the Reds but thats about it. There was very little winning during his tenure as a Red. IMO I will have more fond memories from Scott Rolen that I do of Adam Dunn. Its not his fault that the Reds didn't win its just the reality of his time as a Red.

I wonder how the White Sox are going to play Dunn and whether or not that will extend his career. He has been very durable during his time in the big leagues but lets be honest, guy is a big dude. Dunn takes a lot of pounding playing day in day out during a baseball season, more so than a smaller guy would. Most larger 1b types extend their career by going to DH but they also seem to break down regardless. And as a White Sox fan I would worry about Dunn's bat speed slowing a little bit as he gets older. We saw it first hand with Jr and how he was forced to start his swing earlier which led to more bad swings and swings and misses. Dunn has such a large swing that slowing it down just a little would not be good.

Well in terms of bat speed Dunn may not even be on the White Sox any more when he has to start his swing early. Bat speed wise Jr. was putting up very good offensive seasons through age 35 and pretty solid seasons at 36 and 37.

If you want to use Griff as an example then I think it bodes well for AD's HOF chances that he wouldn't have the big time drop off until 37-38.

Sea Ray
12-04-2010, 12:02 PM
I don't think that Thome will be an interesting HOF discussion at all. He should be in. No question about it in my mind.

I think it'll be a close vote and not on the first ballot. What do you think?

Razor Shines
12-04-2010, 12:34 PM
I think it'll be a close vote and not on the first ballot. What do you think?

That's one thing I'm tired of. This first ballot, needs to wait a few years stuff. If he's a HOFer he's a HOFer and in my mind Thome is a HOFer.

WMR
12-04-2010, 12:42 PM
That's one thing I'm tired of. This first ballot, needs to wait a few years stuff. If he's a HOFer he's a HOFer and in my mind Thome is a HOFer.

Amen.

Self-important sports writers ... :bash:

cincinnati chili
12-04-2010, 12:58 PM
Some of us have pointed out how Thome is a pretty good comp for Dunn. But not a perfect one. Dunn has a career line of .250 .381 .521 .902. At virtually the same point in his career Thome had a line of .288 .417 .558 .975. Thome now has a line of .278 .404 .559 .963 and he's almost 10 years older than Dunn. Do people think Dunn will still have a .900+ ops when he's done playing?

Thome has had 5 all-star appearances, led his league in homers, been on several playoff teams, has been one of the top 10 vote getters for the MVP a handful of times, and has a shot at 600 homers next year. Dunn has 1 all-star appearance, his best finish for the MVP was 21st last year, and he has to hope that the next decade is good to him.

Defense is what will hurt both of them the most. Their offense not only has to be impressive on it's own but has to make up for the damage their defense, or lack of it, will do in the minds of the voters. Signing with a contender helps. Being a dh on that contender... not as much. Do people think Thome will be a lock for the HOF with the label 'dh' hanging over his head?

Dunn has a shot at the HOF but I don't think people should get their hopes up. It's possible that Dunn ends up just like every other player that was good but just not quite good enough.

The Thome comp raised an eyebrow with me as well. Thome is probably one of the top 7 or 8 first basemen in history, and first base is one of the most offense-laden positions.

Nevertheless, Dunn is a lot closer to Thome than guys like Dave Kingman are to Dunn.

The steroid controversy is going to skew the HOF elections for several years, but I suspect there will ultimately be a slingshot effect. Palmeiro will not get in for a long time, although his profile suggests he should (I even think Piazza might have problems getting 75% of the vote, even though he has never been caught red-handed). 30 or 40 years from now, the whole steroid controversy will seem silly. People will be taking much more intense performance enhancing drugs in everyday life and major league pitchers will be playing with bionic body parts. A sportswriter in 2050 is going to look at Palmeiro's stat line compared to his peers and won't necessarily bat an eye that he took nandrolone, which may then be available in a form with fewer side effects at your corner drug store.

mth123
12-04-2010, 01:55 PM
I think it'll be a close vote and not on the first ballot. What do you think?

Guy is going to retire with 600+ HR and he'll be 5th or 6th on the all time list. His career OBP is over .400 and his career OPS is .963. He's a sure thing. First Ballot IMO.

Brutus
12-04-2010, 02:09 PM
Guy is going to retire with 600+ HR and he'll be 5th or 6th on the all time list. His career OBP is over .400 and his career OPS is .963. He's a sure thing. First Ballot IMO.

I think people are severely jumping the gun on 600 homers. He has 350 and those last 250 are a lot harder than people are making it. He's 31 years old now. It's one thing to be as consistent as he has been, it's another thing to do it for 5-7 more seasons into his late 30's.

Either way, I don't think, given the way the ballot procedures work, there's a snowball's chance he's a first ballot guy. He doesn't fit the profile of guys that make it, much less first ballot.

MWM
12-04-2010, 02:17 PM
I was, and still am, a big fan of Adam Dunn. But not even I think we should be talking HOF for Dunn. Unless he gets better, he's not a worthy inductee, IMO. If he stays exactly how he's been for another 7 years, I still don't think he is. He's a really good baseball player, but he's never been one of the best players in the league.

westofyou
12-04-2010, 02:30 PM
I think people are severely jumping the gun on 600 homers. He has 350 and those last 250 are a lot harder than people are making it. He's 31 years old now. It's one thing to be as consistent as he has been, it's another thing to do it for 5-7 more seasons into his late 30's.




REER
AGE >= 31

HOMERUNS HR
1 Barry Bonds 470
2 Babe Ruth 405
3 Hank Aaron 389
4 Rafael Palmeiro 375
5 Mark McGwire 345
6 Willie Mays 341
7 Andres Galarraga 293
T8 Jim Thome 282
T8 Reggie Jackson 282
10 Hank Sauer 281
11 Willie Stargell 279
T12 Sammy Sosa 273
T12 Gary Sheffield 273
14 Stan Musial 269
15 Darrell Evans 267
16 Mike Schmidt 265
17 Dave Winfield 261
18 Edgar Martinez 260
19 Steve Finley 257
20 Ted Williams 256
21 Willie McCovey 253
22 Luis Gonzalez 247
T23 Graig Nettles 242
T23 Carlton Fisk 242
25 Jeff Kent 239

mth123
12-04-2010, 02:32 PM
I think people are severely jumping the gun on 600 homers. He has 350 and those last 250 are a lot harder than people are making it. He's 31 years old now. It's one thing to be as consistent as he has been, it's another thing to do it for 5-7 more seasons into his late 30's.

Either way, I don't think, given the way the ballot procedures work, there's a snowball's chance he's a first ballot guy. He doesn't fit the profile of guys that make it, much less first ballot.

We're talking about Thome.

_Sir_Charles_
12-04-2010, 05:25 PM
I was, and still am, a big fan of Adam Dunn. But not even I think we should be talking HOF for Dunn. Unless he gets better, he's not a worthy inductee, IMO. If he stays exactly how he's been for another 7 years, I still don't think he is. He's a really good baseball player, but he's never been one of the best players in the league.

This. HoF players, IMO, should at least be one of the top 2 or 3 players in their respective eras. Dunn...while good, isn't in that class.


We're talking about Thome.

Some are. 2 parallel discussions going on.

Sea Ray
12-04-2010, 05:30 PM
Guy is going to retire with 600+ HR and he'll be 5th or 6th on the all time list. His career OBP is over .400 and his career OPS is .963. He's a sure thing. First Ballot IMO.

Thome would get my vote. Dunn not

Razor Shines
12-04-2010, 05:58 PM
This. HoF players, IMO, should at least be one of the top 2 or 3 players in their respective eras. Dunn...while good, isn't in that class.



.

I'd say there a quite a few guys in the HOF that don't meet that criteria. Ozzie Smith and Sandberg are two I can think of off the top of my head.

_Sir_Charles_
12-04-2010, 06:09 PM
I'd say there a quite a few guys in the HOF that don't meet that criteria. Ozzie Smith and Sandberg are two I can think of off the top of my head.

While true, those 2 guys at least were at the top of their respective positions. Same case can't be made for Adam, especially now that he's moved to first base...and now DH (I assume). Although I admit we have no clue how successful Dunner will be as a DH going forward.

WMR
12-04-2010, 06:16 PM
While true, those 2 guys at least were at the top of their respective positions. Same case can't be made for Adam, especially now that he's moved to first base...and now DH (I assume). Although I admit we have no clue how successful Dunner will be as a DH going forward.

I'd say the back of his baseball card is a pretty good clue, adding in a slight bump for a move to a HR friendly park/league.

_Sir_Charles_
12-04-2010, 06:30 PM
I'd say the back of his baseball card is a pretty good clue, adding in a slight bump for a move to a HR friendly park/league.

Possibly. But we've got no clue how he'll adapt to being a DH (he's always been VERY opposed to the idea) or to how he'll adapt to the new league's pitching that he hasn't seen before. A lot more unknowns than knowns right now.

WMR
12-04-2010, 06:42 PM
"NO clue?"

Hyperbole there. We've got a pretty good idea of what Dunn will give the ChiSox, just as they do. Players with a "bunch of unknowns" aren't given 4 year 56 million dollar contracts.

Betting against Dunn to continue doing what he's done his entire career for at least the short-term is a sucker's bet.

_Sir_Charles_
12-04-2010, 06:59 PM
"NO clue?"

Hyperbole there. We've got a pretty good idea of what Dunn will give the ChiSox, just as they do. Players with a "bunch of unknowns" aren't given 4 year 56 million dollar contracts.

Betting against Dunn to continue doing what he's done his entire career for at least the short-term is a sucker's bet.

Have you seen Dunn face American League pitching on a regular basis? Have you seen him play regularly when he's not in the field every half inning? Have you seen him hit in that particular ballpark regularly?

Yes, unknowns. Maybe the phrase "no clue" was too strong, but I think you should see my point. We don't know how he will produce in the future...we can speculate and hope. But not "know".

WMR
12-04-2010, 07:03 PM
That's a little more reasonable. I still think the whole switching leagues thing is way overblown... he'll be new to them as well. Two of Dunn's greatest strengths are his eye and his discipline and those abilities will stick with him in any league.

_Sir_Charles_
12-04-2010, 07:06 PM
I'm not so sure it's overblown or not. Intro to a new league favors the pitcher heavily IMO. The pitcher is still going to just throw to locations.

Although I do agree Dunner's eye will certainly ease his transition. I certainly hope the best for him.

WMR
12-04-2010, 07:08 PM
I'm not so sure it's overblown or not. Intro to a new league favors the pitcher heavily IMO. The pitcher is still going to just throw to locations.

Although I do agree Dunner's eye will certainly ease his transition. I certainly hope the best for him.

Don't we see offensive players dominate opposing pitchers often their first couple times through the league?

_Sir_Charles_
12-04-2010, 07:21 PM
Don't we see offensive players dominate opposing pitchers often their first couple times through the league?

I seem to recall it being the other way around. It could just be an impression I've gotten though. I've certainly not done any research on it.

WMR
12-04-2010, 07:26 PM
I seem to recall it being the other way around. It could just be an impression I've gotten though. I've certainly not done any research on it.

Yeah I'm only speaking anecdotally... be surprised if someone somewhere hasn't researched it thoroughly.

TRF
12-04-2010, 07:43 PM
I'm guessing you want to point to how a 147 career ops+ for Thome and a career 133 ops+ closes the gap (but not all the way). Or did you want to look at the 178 ops+ that Thome had last year when he was 39/40? Thome also had a 155 ops+ in '06 when he was 35/36 and a 150 ops+ in '07 when he was 36/37. (Dunn's best ops+ for a season: 146) And that's where the big question with Dunn comes in: how is he going to age?

I guess the people that think he has an excellent chance at the HOF think that his stats won't slip and that he'll continue to play 158+ games a year. And maybe you guys are right. Maybe nothing will change with him. And maybe Dunn will finally be on a half dozen playoff teams like Thome. Maybe he'll finish in the top 10 for the MVP a few times like Thome. Maybe he'll get a few more all-star appearances to catch up to Thome. Thome also played 3rd for a half dozen years which might help him a little. Dunn? Well...

Here are some awards that Thome has won:

a Silver Slugger award

Comeback Player of the Year award

the Roberto Clemente Award

the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award in 2004

and in a 2005 survey was chosen the "Best Teammate in Major League Baseball" by a wide margin


Here's the awards that Dunn has won:

none


People may not like it but some of those voters will still care about things like playoff appearances, mvp consideration, and awards. And Dunn has just never been known as one of the best players at his position. So, he's a guy that can't afford to see his stats slip or DL stints if he wants to get into the HOF. Again, I'm not saying he doesn't have a shot. I just think Thome has a little better shot.

By the way, Dunn has never had a season where he was one of the top 5 players in his league in ops+. Thome has had 7 seasons in the top 5.

Four of those awards came after Thome's age 31 season. 1 came after an injury wiped out half his season.

So you are punishing Dunn for what he hasn't done, compared to a guy that hadn't done it at the same age.

As for stats, only once, maybe twice did Dunn play on a team with the offense that surrounded Thome.

mth123
12-04-2010, 07:48 PM
Guys who take a lot of pitches in theory are a lot less volatile when it comes to switching leagues. Hackers get owned for a while because they have no clue what is coming and swing anyway. Disciplined guys hit balls they can handle and aren't as susceptible to simply being fooled by unfamiliarity. That's not to say it won't happen every so often, but its not something that will be the primary factor in his PAs for half a season like it would a hacker. Add that seeing more pitches speeds the process of becoming familiar and I don't think switching leagues will be a big deal.

Adjusting to sitting around and only hitting might be a different story and seems to be more of an individual thing, so we'll just have to see.

_Sir_Charles_
12-04-2010, 09:21 PM
Guys who take a lot of pitches in theory are a lot less volatile when it comes to switching leagues. Hackers get owned for a while because they have no clue what is coming and swing anyway. Disciplined guys hit balls they can handle and aren't as susceptible to simply being fooled by unfamiliarity. That's not to say it won't happen every so often, but its not something that will be the primary factor in his PAs for half a season like it would a hacker. Add that seeing more pitches speeds the process of becoming familiar and I don't think switching leagues will be a big deal.

Adjusting to sitting around and only hitting might be a different story and seems to be more of an individual thing, so we'll just have to see.

This is pretty much what I was thinking. I'm hoping Adam adjusts quickly, but its nowhere close to a sure thing as some would suggest.

redsfandan
12-04-2010, 09:24 PM
Four of those awards came after Thome's age 31 season. 1 came after an injury wiped out half his season.

So you are punishing Dunn for what he hasn't done, compared to a guy that hadn't done it at the same age.

As for stats, only once, maybe twice did Dunn play on a team with the offense that surrounded Thome.
Not at all. I'm simply pointing out the kinds of things that Dunn will have to do before he's done playing to even get close to the same HOF consideration as Thome.

Heath
12-05-2010, 10:12 PM
This is purely speculation, however, I think Hawk Harrelson is going to be on the broadcasters DL list with a strained voice box of his screaming of Dunn homers.

I think this is the right place for Dunn. He will prosper, and if Konerko signs, that makes them a threat in the Central and arguably the projected division winner.

Sea Ray
12-06-2010, 03:36 PM
Guys who take a lot of pitches in theory are a lot less volatile when it comes to switching leagues. Hackers get owned for a while because they have no clue what is coming and swing anyway. Disciplined guys hit balls they can handle and aren't as susceptible to simply being fooled by unfamiliarity. That's not to say it won't happen every so often, but its not something that will be the primary factor in his PAs for half a season like it would a hacker. Add that seeing more pitches speeds the process of becoming familiar and I don't think switching leagues will be a big deal.

Adjusting to sitting around and only hitting might be a different story and seems to be more of an individual thing, so we'll just have to see.

I don't know, Vlad sure didn't seem to miss a beat when he changed leagues

mth123
12-06-2010, 03:51 PM
I don't know, Vlad sure didn't seem to miss a beat when he changed leagues

Vlad is pretty much an exception to everything we know about hitting. I wouldn't use his example as somethimng to expect from other players.

Sea Ray
12-06-2010, 03:58 PM
Vlad is pretty much an exception to everything we know about hitting. I wouldn't use his example as somethimng to expect from other players.

You mentioned "hackers" and I couldn't think of a better example

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:29 PM
Dunn struggling mightily so far, with this line over 151 ABs: .192/.322/.358, 5 HR and 22 RBI. Could the switch to DH be messing with his game?

Chip R
05-25-2011, 02:00 PM
Dunn struggling mightily so far, with this line over 151 ABs: .192/.322/.358, 5 HR and 22 RBI. Could the switch to DH be messing with his game?


I saw something the other day that he has taken the collar for the year against lefties.

mbgrayson
05-25-2011, 02:05 PM
OK, I can't resist this comparison:

Adam Dunn, 151 ABs: .192/.322/.358, 5 HR and 22 RBIs.
Cost for 2011: $12 million, cost for 2012-14 $44 million

Johny Gomes, 129 ABs: .171/.306/.372, 7 HR and 19 RBIs.
Cost for 2011: $1.75 million, cost for 2012 and later: no contract.

Sea Ray
05-25-2011, 02:05 PM
Wake me up when he retires 'cause I can't wait for the Hall of Fame debate on RZ

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 02:07 PM
I saw something the other day that he has taken the collar for the year against lefties.

0-31 with 6 walks. Wow.

Here's another crazy stat I just heard...Jose Bautista has more HRs in the new Minny park than Mauer and Morneau combined. Crazy, even crazier to think that they don't even play in the same division.

Granted that there have been some injuries, but still..

VERIFIED: Bautista has 7 in 7 games at Target, Mauer/Morneau have 5 in 132 games. WOW.

RedsManRick
05-25-2011, 02:10 PM
Wake me up when he retires 'cause I can't wait for the Hall of Fame debate on RZ

I don't think you give enough credit to the evolution of RedsZone posters over the past 4-5 years. Even those of us who were massive Dunn supporters back when the debate was over the importance of strikeouts have come around to the realization that his poor defense offset a good chunk of his offensive production, resulting in him in being a merely very good player, not a great one.

Even if he continues his level of production for another 7-8 years, I think you'll find the vast majority of us suggesting that he's not a HOF.

oneupper
05-25-2011, 02:11 PM
Dunn struggling mightily so far, with this line over 151 ABs: .192/.322/.358, 5 HR and 22 RBI. Could the switch to DH be messing with his game?

Forgetting how to hit because they won't let him field? Not buying it.

I think the source of his strength was in his appendix. :D

Sea Ray
05-25-2011, 02:13 PM
I don't think you give enough credit to the evolution of RedsZone posters over the past 4-5 years. Even those of us who were massive Dunn supporters back when the debate was over the importance of strikeouts have come around to the realization that his poor defense offset a good chunk of his offensive production, resulting in him in being a merely very good player, not a great one.

Even if he continues his level of production for another 7-8 years, I think you'll find the vast majority of us suggesting that he's not a HOF.

I sure hope so 'cause I counted 4 or 5 folks who were arguing his HOF credentials as of the time we traded him.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 02:14 PM
‘‘I would like to blame it on swinging at bad pitches, but I’m not doing that,’’ Dunn said. ‘‘I’m swinging at good pitches. It seems like I’m taking the balls and swinging at strikes and still fouling them off. Just have to keep battling.’’



http://www.suntimes.com/sports/5569988-419/this-is-ridiculous-dunn-says-of-slump.html

Red in Chicago
05-25-2011, 09:12 PM
Dunn has made about as much of an impact on Chicago as Junior did when he got here.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2011, 10:45 PM
Adam Dunn is absolutely killing my fantasy team this year. And where are all his apologists on this board? You can always count on a bunch of people on here racing to the defense of Adam Dunn. His career seems to be in a huge decline. Perhaps he got that big contract from the White Sox a few months ago and then got "fat and happy"? He has been a complete mess for two full months now. No small sample size. Basically 1/3 of the season is already in the books.

bucksfan2
05-25-2011, 11:20 PM
Adam Dunn is absolutely killing my fantasy team this year. And where are all his apologists on this board? You can always count on a bunch of people on here racing to the defense of Adam Dunn. His career seems to be in a huge decline. Perhaps he got that big contract from the White Sox a few months ago and then got "fat and happy"? He has been a complete mess for two full months now. No small sample size. Basically 1/3 of the season is already in the books.

Perhaps a large frame, father time, and a slowing bat speed have caught up to Dunner. I do wonder if he is learning how to DH. It can't be that easy to just sit on the bench and hit. I think it would take you out of rhythm, especially if its your first season doing so.

westofyou
05-26-2011, 12:15 AM
Perhaps a large frame, father time, and a slowing bat speed have caught up to Dunner. I do wonder if he is learning how to DH. It can't be that easy to just sit on the bench and hit. I think it would take you out of rhythm, especially if its your first season doing so.

True, on all counts.

But he also had an appendectomy earlier this year.

What I see is that 43% of the 757 pitches he has seen this year were either called strikes or he swung at them. Not exactly a huge amount of pitches to offer at, but still a good portion of strikes and 'supposed' strikes. In these swings he's:


Missed 90 29%
Fouled Off 127 41%
Put in Play 96 31%

His timing looks to be off, but he did get cut on earlier this season, Holiday seemed to get by fine , but perhaps the new league also is a factor (as it was for Holiday in Oakland??)

VR
05-26-2011, 12:24 AM
As a non-roid user....his career decline is pretty typical from the sluggers of the 70's, 80's and 90's.

Razor Shines
05-26-2011, 02:39 AM
.875 or better OPS. 32+ bombs. 90+ walks. Mark it down.

Ghosts of 1990
05-26-2011, 02:39 AM
He is not that old (31). I refuse to believe he is in decline. Its a bad slump, the worst of his career. But he's far from done. He will hit 40 home runs again in a season and he will still end up with 30 and .800 OPS for this year.

Dunner has 6 or 7 productive years left, although his finest in 2004 will end up his finest--and I can't believe he will only be a one-time All-Star who never won a home run title and HOW did he hit .300 on the nose for the first half of 2002 when he was an All-Star? That's not him

Ron Madden
05-26-2011, 05:00 AM
Adam Dunn is absolutely killing my fantasy team this year. And where are all his apologists on this board? You can always count on a bunch of people on here racing to the defense of Adam Dunn. His career seems to be in a huge decline. Perhaps he got that big contract from the White Sox a few months ago and then got "fat and happy"? He has been a complete mess for two full months now. No small sample size. Basically 1/3 of the season is already in the books.

I've always been an Adam Dunn Fan. Probably always will be. I'm still here. Does Adam Dunn have his faults? Yes he does and most of his Fans admit that.

We just aren't allowed as much freedom to defend his good traits (without receiving a Warning) as his detractors have to trash him.

vaticanplum
08-03-2012, 12:21 PM
I see that the long Dunn threads are closed, and didn't want to start a new one, so resurrecting this here. Just a quick article on the...several varied records Dunn could be set to break this year:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/8/3/3217282/adam-dunn-record-book-white-sox

For the record, Dunn is on my fantasy team (in a league admittedly skewed more toward OPS than BA), and my fantasy team is currently making a case for being the most successful fantasty team that ever fantasied. Everybody in my league laughed at me for taking Dunn and Encarnacion. hahahahaha who's laughing now suckers?

My faith in Adam Dunn is unshakable.

Chip R
08-03-2012, 01:30 PM
I see that the long Dunn threads are closed, and didn't want to start a new one, so resurrecting this here. Just a quick article on the...several varied records Dunn could be set to break this year:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/8/3/3217282/adam-dunn-record-book-white-sox

For the record, Dunn is on my fantasy team (in a league admittedly skewed more toward OPS than BA), and my fantasy team is currently making a case for being the most successful fantasty team that ever fantasied. Everybody in my league laughed at me for taking Dunn and Encarnacion. hahahahaha who's laughing now suckers?

My faith in Adam Dunn is unshakable.

Now you've done it. :eek:

vaticanplum
08-03-2012, 02:00 PM
Now you've done it. :eek:

I know, I know :laugh:

smith288
08-03-2012, 02:34 PM
Tip toeing away from this thread....

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2012, 03:20 PM
I see that the long Dunn threads are closed, and didn't want to start a new one, so resurrecting this here. Just a quick article on the...several varied records Dunn could be set to break this year:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/8/3/3217282/adam-dunn-record-book-white-sox

For the record, Dunn is on my fantasy team (in a league admittedly skewed more toward OPS than BA), and my fantasy team is currently making a case for being the most successful fantasty team that ever fantasied. Everybody in my league laughed at me for taking Dunn and Encarnacion. hahahahaha who's laughing now suckers?

My faith in Adam Dunn is unshakable.

BuckeyeRedleg is with you.

Go get 'em, Big Donkey!

WMR
08-03-2012, 03:52 PM
Sea ray is VERY happy Dunn is having such a great year. ;)

Kc61
08-14-2012, 03:41 PM
As of today, Adam Dunn is leading all of major league baseball in strikeouts, walks, and homers. All three true outcomes. 33 homers, 82 walks, 167 strikeouts.

He has only a .208 BA, but a .340 OBP.

He has only 84 hits, 47 of which are extra base hits.

I don't know if there's ever been another hitter quite like Dunn. Whether you view it as good or bad, he's a real oddity and in his unique way is very productive.

Wonderful Monds
08-14-2012, 03:46 PM
As of today, Adam Dunn is leading all of major league baseball in strikeouts, walks, and homers. All three true outcomes. 33 homers, 82 walks, 167 strikeouts.

He has only a .208 BA, but a .340 OBP.

He has only 84 hits, 47 of which are extra base hits.

I don't know if there's ever been another hitter quite like Dunn. Whether you view it as good or bad, he's a real oddity and in his unique way is very productive.
But is still only half as productive as anyone who is leading baseball in home runs should be.

I know I'll get reamed for this, but you can only be so productive with a .208 average.

wolfboy
08-14-2012, 03:48 PM
But is still only half as productive as anyone who is leading baseball in home runs should be.

I know I'll get reamed for this, but you can only be so productive with a .208 average.

Maybe I don't understand what he "should be." He is what he is.

Wonderful Monds
08-14-2012, 03:50 PM
Maybe I don't understand what he "should be." He is what he is.

Right, and I'm saying that's not as good as you would readily assume the MLB leader in HR is.

Kc61
08-14-2012, 03:51 PM
But is still only half as productive as anyone who is leading baseball in home runs should be.

I know I'll get reamed for this, but you can only be so productive with a .208 average.

A .208 BA is problematic. Having said that, this could be the best .208 in the history of baseball.

As said, Dunn has 33 homers and a .340 OBP. He is also in the top 30 in MLB in runs scored with 67 (he's tied for 28th). He is tied for 9th in MLB in RBI with 78.

Just an odd set of stats. But worth noting, I thought.

Wonderful Monds
08-14-2012, 03:54 PM
A .208 BA is problematic. Having said that, this could be the best .208 in the history of baseball.

As said, Dunn has 33 homers and a .340 OBP. He is also in the top 30 in MLB in runs scored with 67 (he's tied for 28th). He is tied for 9th in MLB in RBI with 78.

Just an odd set of stats. But worth noting, I thought.

Very much so. Not that he isn't productive, but when I think baseball's home run king, I think MVP numbers. And yet it takes Adam an elite or near elite BB% to keep his OBP hovering around average at this point. That aforementioned HR lead only has him slugging .488.

traderumor
08-14-2012, 04:02 PM
Dunn is a lefty Dave Kingman after all. As time marches on, their careers are indeed mirroring despite so many denials that he was a great comp. for what one could expect from Dunn over his career.

Sea Ray
08-14-2012, 04:08 PM
I give Dunn kudos for turning around his historically horrid 2011 season. He's back to the old Dunn that we've loved to debate for many years around here. I never said that he wouldn't, but I give him credit for doing so...:thumbup:

westofyou
08-14-2012, 04:12 PM
Dunn is a lefty Dave Kingman after all. As time marches on, their careers are indeed mirroring despite so many denials that he was a great comp. for what one could expect from Dunn over his career.

Kingman couldn't buy a walk, lifetime .302 OB% says not a great comp all around. But similar in many.

mdccclxix
08-14-2012, 04:14 PM
Dunn 2 HR away from 400. Should end up with 500 you'd think, although his quirky slash line will have to find a suitor in 2015 if he can continue to produce 30+ hr power.

mdccclxix
08-14-2012, 04:21 PM
I guess it should be noted here, the three ex reds leading baseball in HR, Dunn, Hamilton, and EE.

What kind of alterworld would have allowed them all to stay?

Bruce RF
Edwin 3b
Hamilton/Stubbs CF
Votto LF
Dunn 1b
Phillips 2b
Cozart SS
Mez

Worst defense ever, haha. Edit: maybe not?

You know, with a semblance of a pitching staff in the mid-aughts, the money might have been there, who knows.

Sea Ray
08-14-2012, 04:31 PM
I guess it should be noted here, the three ex reds leading baseball in HR, Dunn, Hamilton, and EE.

What kind of alterworld would have allowed them all to stay?

Bruce RF
Edwin 3b
Hamilton/Stubbs CF
Votto LF
Dunn 1b
Phillips 2b
Cozart SS
Mez

Worst defense ever, haha. Edit: maybe not?

You know, with a semblance of a pitching staff in the mid-aughts, the money might have been there, who knows.

The only one I want back is Hamilton. The other two is a testament to how the DH changes the game

CySeymour
08-14-2012, 05:25 PM
Kingman couldn't buy a walk, lifetime .302 OB% says not a great comp all around. But similar in many.

According to baseball-reference, Dunn's most similar players:

1 Darryl Strawberry (911)
2 Greg Vaughn (904)
3 Troy Glaus (896)
4 Pat Burrell (892)
5 Jeromy Burnitz (891)
6 Jay Buhner (891)
7 David Justice (879)
8 Ralph Kiner (870) *
9 Richie Sexson (863)
10 Danny Tartabull (859)

westofyou
08-14-2012, 05:27 PM
According to baseball-reference, Dunn's most similar players:

1 Darryl Strawberry (911)
2 Greg Vaughn (904)
3 Troy Glaus (896)
4 Pat Burrell (892)
5 Jeromy Burnitz (891)
6 Jay Buhner (891)
7 David Justice (879)
8 Ralph Kiner (870) *
9 Richie Sexson (863)
10 Danny Tartabull (859)

I like the Kiner comparison

Tom Servo
08-14-2012, 05:29 PM
I searched 'Adam Dunn Reds' the other day for a pic for the Magic Number thread, and the images made me really miss Dunner.

jojo
08-14-2012, 05:34 PM
As of today, Adam Dunn is leading all of major league baseball in strikeouts, walks, and homers. All three true outcomes. 33 homers, 82 walks, 167 strikeouts.

He has only a .208 BA, but a .340 OBP.

He has only 84 hits, 47 of which are extra base hits.

I don't know if there's ever been another hitter quite like Dunn. Whether you view it as good or bad, he's a real oddity and in his unique way is very productive.

He started the season off hot but he's not the same bat that he used to be as a Red.

mdccclxix
08-14-2012, 06:01 PM
K rate is 35% the last 2 seasons. BABIP is also about .240 the last two seasons.

He's back to OPSing mid .700's vs LHP, but last year it was an amazing .309.

It's a real question if he can live up to that contract the next few years.

kbrake
08-14-2012, 06:16 PM
I have 20 bucks on him getting to 600 HR's. Anyone like my chances? haha this was made a long time ago.

Sabo Fan
08-14-2012, 06:28 PM
I searched 'Adam Dunn Reds' the other day for a pic for the Magic Number thread, and the images made me really miss Dunner.

I was on Reds.com not too long ago and was listening to some of Marty's famous calls. Two involving Dunn stood out: the walkoff grand slam against the Indians off Bob Wickman (I was at that game, nothing short of incredible) and when he called the Banana Phone. Two of my all-time favorite Reds moments.

I was always a Dunn backer while he was here and still want to see him do well. I always thought way too much blame was placed on his and Griffey's shoulders during their time here, when the real culprit was not injuries (in Junior's case) or lack of committment/leadership (those criticisms were leveled at both) but rather a complete lack of a capable pitching staff. Also good to see EdE tearing it up, I was always a fan of his too. No regrets about them not being around anymore though, I don't think they'd fit too well on this current Reds club, you have to play defense and other than EdE maybe capable of playing a passable LF, it's just not happening at this stage of either's career.

Ghosts of 1990
08-14-2012, 10:48 PM
I searched 'Adam Dunn Reds' the other day for a pic for the Magic Number thread, and the images made me really miss Dunner.

Favorite Red, all-time.

Dunner has withstood the test of time.

George Foster
08-15-2012, 12:16 AM
Favorite Red, all-time.

Dunner has withstood the test of time.

he has a real good chance of batting below .200 and under 100 RBI's when the season ends. If still in the majors is withstanding the test of time, so be it. We are a better team without him.

If i'm not mistaken, if the White Sox stay above .500 for the year it will be the first time in Dunn's ML career he has played on a winning team..just sayin..

*BaseClogger*
08-15-2012, 12:19 AM
he has a real good chance of batting below .200 and under 100 RBI's when the season ends. If still in the majors is withstanding the test of time, so be it. We are a better team without him.

If i'm not mistaken, if the White Sox stay above .500 for the year it will be the first time in Dunn's ML career he has played on a winning team..just sayin..

:laugh:

AtomicDumpling
08-15-2012, 01:38 AM
he has a real good chance of batting below .200 and under 100 RBI's when the season ends. If still in the majors is withstanding the test of time, so be it. We are a better team without him.

If i'm not mistaken, if the White Sox stay above .500 for the year it will be the first time in Dunn's ML career he has played on a winning team..just sayin..

Yeah because batting average and RBIs are good ways to tell productive players from bad ones...

If you think Adam Dunn was even a tiny part of why those Reds teams of the Lost Decade were bad then I guess you live on a different planet than I do. It was clearly a terrible pitching staff that doomed those teams. Adam Dunn led those teams to the top of the league in scoring runs yet they still couldn't win thanks to their awful pitching. Dunn was the key component to a great offense for his entire stay in Cincinnati, it wasn't his fault the pitching was below major league quality. It just doesn't make any sense at all to claim one of the most productive hitters in the league is the reason why the Reds were losers.

Homer Bailey
08-15-2012, 01:40 AM
he has a real good chance of batting below .200 and under 100 RBI's when the season ends. If still in the majors is withstanding the test of time, so be it. We are a better team without him.

If i'm not mistaken, if the White Sox stay above .500 for the year it will be the first time in Dunn's ML career he has played on a winning team..just sayin..

:eek:

harangatang
08-15-2012, 01:46 AM
I like the Kiner comparisonI always thought Dunn and Harmon Killebrew were the most similar. Killebrew does have an edge with a career OPS+ of 143 vs. Dunn with a career OPS+ of 126.

Killebrew's career line: .256/.376/.509/.884
Dunn's career line: .241/.371/.502/.873

camisadelgolf
08-15-2012, 01:51 AM
I loved Dunn, but I'm so glad he's gone. Had the Reds been in the AL this whole time, it'd be a different story though.

Caveat Emperor
08-15-2012, 02:08 AM
Dunn's an odd duck. I'm glad the Reds had him early in his career, and I'm thrilled they don't have him now.

WMR
08-15-2012, 02:17 AM
he has a real good chance of batting below .200 and under 100 RBI's when the season ends. If still in the majors is withstanding the test of time, so be it. We are a better team without him.

If i'm not mistaken, if the White Sox stay above .500 for the year it will be the first time in Dunn's ML career he has played on a winning team..just sayin..

Oh Lordy...

vaticanplum
08-15-2012, 02:19 AM
I have 20 bucks on him getting to 600 HR's. Anyone like my chances? haha this was made a long time ago.

Completely. He's very healthy.

Caveat Emperor
08-15-2012, 02:25 AM
Dunn at 600 HRs would be a fascinating HOF debate. Can you exclude a clean 600 HR hitter just because he didn't hit for average or field his position with any great dignity?

cincrazy
08-15-2012, 02:29 AM
Dunn at 600 HRs would be a fascinating HOF debate. Can you exclude a clean 600 HR hitter just because he didn't hit for average or field his position with any great dignity?

Agreed.

He's an extremely unique player. I've gained more of an appreciation for him since he left, I think. He'll never be one of my favorite players, but he's much more valuable than I ever gave him credit for being in a Reds uni. And I think to just look at his .BA and RBIs is to totally discount what he's meant to that team this year. He's been a big part of their turnaround, and he's on pace for over 50 HRs, or close to it. That's HUGE.

Power has dropped off so dramatically across the game, he may be more valuable to the Sox now than he was to us, despite the lower OBP and BA.

I wish Dunner nothing but the best. Glad the Reds went in another direction. He's an AL player if there ever was one. But he's a good hitter, and a great power hitter, and his HOF discussion will be an interesting one.

cincinnati chili
08-15-2012, 02:48 AM
Jeez VP, why not bring up a less controversial topic?... say, the merits of work release programs for convicted sex offenders at elementary schools.

I swear I'm going to put my kid through college betting people who don't think Dunn will make the hall of fame. He's never been tied to steroids. He doesn't need to hit 600 home runs. Nobody with 500, not tied to steroids, has failed to get in.

Kingman is a terrible comp. Save one year, Kingman's peak is inferior to this year on the back end of Dunn's career

Wonderful Monds
08-15-2012, 02:57 AM
Yeah because batting average and RBIs are good ways to tell productive players from bad ones

A BA that hovers right around the Mendoza line is a pretty good way, yeah.

AtomicDumpling
08-15-2012, 04:35 AM
A BA that hovers right around the Mendoza line is a pretty good way, yeah.

The guy had a .900 OPS as a Red and averaged 90-100 RBIs and Runs Scored each season and you want to fixate on his Batting Average?

RichRed
08-15-2012, 09:34 AM
Kingman is a terrible comp. Save one year, Kingman's peak is inferior to this year on the back end of Dunn's career

Plus, people seem to actually like Dunn. Well, except for some Reds fans and possibly Marty. Kingman was as cuddly as a porcupine.

CySeymour
08-15-2012, 10:36 AM
Fangraphs and BBRef.com disagree on Dunn's career value. Fangraphs has Dunn's career WAR as 26 and BBRef has it as 13.8.

westofyou
08-15-2012, 10:44 AM
I always thought Dunn and Harmon Killebrew were the most similar. Killebrew does have an edge with a career OPS+ of 143 vs. Dunn with a career OPS+ of 126.

Killebrew's career line: .256/.376/.509/.884
Dunn's career line: .241/.371/.502/.873

Frank Howard more for me.

Both BIG men, both carrying around the K shackle and both hitting with tremendous power first and foremost

westofyou
08-15-2012, 10:44 AM
he has a real good chance of batting below .200 and under 100 RBI's when the season ends. If still in the majors is withstanding the test of time, so be it. We are a better team without him.

If i'm not mistaken, if the White Sox stay above .500 for the year it will be the first time in Dunn's ML career he has played on a winning team..just sayin..
True, that year Dunn was 2-14 from the mound with a 6.45 era killed the Reds

Sea Ray
08-15-2012, 10:59 AM
In 2006 the Reds finished 3.5 games away from the eventual World Series Champs, St Louis. Dunn (along with Griffey) tanked in Sept when we needed him most. He played that month like he did the entire year in 2011. He had 109 PAs, hit 2 HRs, 5 RBIs and had a BA of .161. Dunn does bare a great deal of the responsibility for us not winning a very winnable division that year

Tom Servo
08-15-2012, 11:22 AM
In 2006 the Reds finished 3.5 games away from the eventual World Series Champs, St Louis. Dunn (along with Griffey) tanked in Sept when we needed him most. He played that month like he did the entire year in 2011. He had 109 PAs, hit 2 HRs, 5 RBIs and had a BA of .161. Dunn does bare a great deal of the responsibility for us not winning a very winnable division that year
And it has nothing to do with the fact that we were sending out Sun-Woo Kim, Chris Michalak, and Eric Milton (as well as a still to that point mediocre Kyle Lohse) out for starts

Sea Ray
08-15-2012, 11:26 AM
And it has nothing to do with the fact that we were sending out Sun-Woo Kim, Chris Michalak, and Eric Milton (as well as a still to that point mediocre Kyle Lohse) out for starts

If you can show me how those pitchers caused Dunn to hit .161, I'll be with you

RedsBaron
08-15-2012, 11:58 AM
Frank Howard more for me.

Both BIG men, both carrying around the K shackle and both hitting with tremendous power first and foremost

Killebrew, Howard and Dunn also all seemed to be nice guys.
That said, Dunn is a long way from being the player the other two guys were. Baseball-Reference.com shows Dunn with a career WAR of 13.8, while Howard had a career WAR of 33.8 and Killebrew had a career WAR of 55.8. Howard and Killebrew also had a number of seasons with higher WAR scores than Dunn's best season.
Dunn also has played in a better hitters era than the other two giants did.
Baseball-Reference.com's stats neutralizer gives Dunn a career BA/OBP/SLG line of .237/.367/.495. Howard's was .292/.373/.531 and Killebrew's was .262/.383/.519.

WildcatFan
08-15-2012, 12:01 PM
And it has nothing to do with the fact that we were sending out Sun-Woo Kim, Chris Michalak, and Eric Milton (as well as a still to that point mediocre Kyle Lohse) out for starts

So, so glad I didn't turn 21 until 2007.

vaticanplum
08-15-2012, 12:08 PM
Dunn's bad September is not what did the Reds in in 2006. His season leading up to September is the only reason the Reds teased at all in 2006. Him and Eddie Guardado. And Farney.

Caveat Emperor
08-15-2012, 12:18 PM
Dunn's bad September is not what did the Reds in in 2006. His season leading up to September is the only reason the Reds teased at all in 2006. Him and Eddie Guardado. And Farney.

This thread is making a lot of repressed memories boil to the surface.

Tom Servo
08-15-2012, 12:26 PM
If you can show me how those pitchers caused Dunn to hit .161, I'll be with you
Junior hit .071 in Sept/Oct, making only 15 plate appearances due to injuries.
Scott Hatteberg hit .206 in 83 plate appearances in Sept/Oct
Edwin Encarnacion hit .205 in 105 plate appearances in Sept/Oct
Brandon Phillips hit .149 in 93 plate appearances in Sept/Oct
Ryan Freel hit .208 in 63 plate appearances in Sept/Oct
David Ross hit .179 in 68 plate appearances in Sept/Oct


I just don't see how Dunn is to blame anymore than anyone else. The team was just not very good.


and VP, you forgot about our whipping boy turned savior Richie Aurilia. :)

RedsBaron
08-15-2012, 12:47 PM
I can't recall-was Dunn playing hurt in September 2006?

vaticanplum
08-15-2012, 01:50 PM
I can't recall-was Dunn playing hurt in September 2006?

I think it was 2005 that he played the whole season with a hand fracture. I don't recall him being injured in 2006, but I'm not positive.


This thread is making a lot of repressed memories boil to the surface.

That was such a wonderfully awfully weird season.

vaticanplum
08-15-2012, 01:51 PM
and VP, you forgot about our whipping boy turned savior Richie Aurilia. :)

Richie Rich!!!

I loved Scott Hatteberg so much. Why isn't he coaching?

westofyou
08-15-2012, 01:57 PM
That was such a wonderfully awfully weird season.

17-9 in April, 15-12 in June, under .500 every other month, July team era 5.21, August era 4.70.... 68-67 on September 1, 5 games back and with -25 run differential, blaming Dunn for the result of that season is at best a lie.

_Sir_Charles_
08-15-2012, 02:07 PM
he has a real good chance of batting below .200 and under 100 RBI's when the season ends. If still in the majors is withstanding the test of time, so be it. We are a better team without him.

If i'm not mistaken, if the White Sox stay above .500 for the year it will be the first time in Dunn's ML career he has played on a winning team..just sayin..

I know this forum...and I'm positive this won't be taken for the way it was intended.

I agree that the Reds are indeed a better TEAM without him. I agree that he has a good chance of hitting under .200. Productive or not, that's REALLY bad. And while I don't think for a second that George is implying that the Reds were below .500 while he was here BECAUSE of Dunn, he does still make an accurate statement. While a great HR hitter and a very productive OBP player, his flaws DO offset those positives pretty considerably. A favorite player or not, I don't think anybody can argue that Dunn is a very flawed player.

But as usual, if someone goes negative even a bit on Dunn...dog pile commence. *sigh*

westofyou
08-15-2012, 02:09 PM
I know this forum...and I'm positive this won't be taken for the way it was intended.

I agree that the Reds are indeed a better TEAM without him. I agree that he has a good chance of hitting under .200. Productive or not, that's REALLY bad. And while I don't think for a second that George is implying that the Reds were below .500 while he was here BECAUSE of Dunn, he does still make an accurate statement. While a great HR hitter and a very productive OBP player, his flaws DO offset those positives pretty considerably. A favorite player or not, I don't think anybody can argue that Dunn is a very flawed player.

But as usual, if someone goes negative even a bit on Dunn...dog pile commence. *sigh*


Well you must be an army of one eh?

Just sayin...

jojo
08-15-2012, 02:14 PM
Adam Dunn led those teams to the top of the league in scoring runs yet they still couldn't win thanks to their awful pitching. Dunn was the key component to a great offense for his entire stay in Cincinnati, it wasn't his fault the pitching was below major league quality. It just doesn't make any sense at all to claim one of the most productive hitters in the league is the reason why the Reds were losers.

While you're spot on about the pitching, here's the thing about the lost decade. The reds offense wasn't actually very good either. It managed to score more than 775 runs only twice during Dunn's career as Red. Meanwhile the Reds managed to only give up less than 800 runs once while he was in a Reds uni.

Dunn's legacy will be largely that he was a splash of true three outcome color on a run of very bad teams that largely couldn't hit, field, or pitch.

Here's how the Reds offense ranked during Dunn's tenure as a Red. It was above average only two seasons (averaging 9th in the NL):



Year NL rank
2001 12th
2002 9th
2003 13th
2004 10th
2005 1st
2006 9th
2007 7th
2008 12th

reds44
08-15-2012, 02:15 PM
I never understood how Hatteberg never played again after he left the Reds. He had an .868 OPS his last year full year in Cincinnati.

_Sir_Charles_
08-15-2012, 02:16 PM
Well you must be an army of one eh?

Just sayin...

I think he was pointing out that no matter how prodigious of a HR hitter/walk taker he is, he hasn't been able to lift his team up over the .500 mark. I think his flaws take away from his overall productivity too much for him to be a player who can carry a team like that. I love Dunn, I really do (as a person and a player) but his flaws are pretty big and daunting for a TEAM to overcome. Again, it's not an indictment of Dunn, he's just a really odd player to categorize.

Tom Servo
08-15-2012, 02:21 PM
Dunn couldn't carry the team, I don't know that anybody argues that. He was not Albert Pujols, or a Joey Votto like we are blessed with now. But he was a productive player who would have been a great compliment to other pieces, if we had other pieces. But people at the time just couldn't get over the fact that he wasn't a Pujols.

Boss-Hog
08-15-2012, 02:25 PM
Dunn couldn't carry the team, I don't know that anybody argues that. He was not Albert Pujols, or a Joey Votto like we are blessed with now. But he was a productive player who would have been a great compliment to other pieces, if we had other pieces. But people at the time just couldn't get over the fact that he wasn't a Pujols.
That sounds an awful lot like another Reds OF that just happens to currently be on the team... :)

_Sir_Charles_
08-15-2012, 02:26 PM
Dunn couldn't carry the team, I don't know that anybody argues that. He was not Albert Pujols, or a Joey Votto like we are blessed with now. But he was a productive player who would have been a great compliment to other pieces, if we had other pieces. But people at the time just couldn't get over the fact that he wasn't a Pujols.

Exactly. Well put.

camisadelgolf
08-15-2012, 02:27 PM
I never understood how Hatteberg never played again after he left the Reds. He had an .868 OPS his last year full year in Cincinnati.
You didn't need to be a scout to see how much his bat had slowed down between his last two seasons. He was absolutely finished. I think he was also kind of looking forward to retirement.

jojo
08-15-2012, 02:36 PM
I never understood how Hatteberg never played again after he left the Reds. He had an .868 OPS his last year full year in Cincinnati.

Hattie was largely a platoon bat who loved GABP and played first base.

Then considering that he was in his age 38 season when he parted ways with the Reds, that's just not a profile of a player with a lot of job opportunities.

Sea Ray
08-15-2012, 02:48 PM
I can't recall-was Dunn playing hurt in September 2006?

Dunn and Griffey were the big boys in that lineup thus more was expected of them.

Sea Ray
08-15-2012, 02:50 PM
That sounds an awful lot like another Reds OF that just happens to currently be on the team... :)

True. The difference is nobody is proclaiming that any current Red outfielder is Hall of Fame bound

Tom Servo
08-15-2012, 02:51 PM
I can't recall-was Dunn playing hurt in September 2006?
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51708


This was Dunn’s first foray into meaningful September baseball. He’s learned something from it.

“I think a lot of it had to do with me trying to do much, maybe trying to hard,” he said. “Other than that, I don’t know. Physically, I’m fine. I’ve got no excuse there.”

cincrazy
08-15-2012, 04:32 PM
The problem wasn't that Dunn wasn't a good player. The problem was we made him the centerpiece of our offense. As has been noted, and as I've said before, he's a very good complementary piece on the right team. But on a team like the Reds, with a small budget (especially at the time), it was a bad match. We allocated so much money to Jr. and Dunn, we didn't have all that much left over for anyone else.

reds44
08-15-2012, 04:34 PM
The Reds problem was never Griffey, Dunn, or their contracts. The Reds problem was they couldn't develop pitching. It's pretty simple.

jojo
08-15-2012, 04:35 PM
The Reds problem was never Griffey, Dunn, or their contracts. The Reds problem was they couldn't develop pitching. It's pretty simple.

The problem was that they couldn't hit, field or pitch.

The Reds turnaround in pitching coincided with a dramatic upgrade in their defense.

Wonderful Monds
08-15-2012, 04:42 PM
The problem was that they couldn't hit, field or pitch.

The Reds turnaround in pitching coincided with a dramatic upgrade in their defense.

Which likely would not have happened if an NL team had a DH starting in LF for them.

jojo
08-15-2012, 04:51 PM
Which likely would not have happened if an NL team had a DH starting in LF for them.

I get why some developed a great deal of fondness for Dunn. First he was homegrown. Second, for a good part of a decade, he was one of the only bright spots for the Reds. Seriously, remove Dunn from the Reds lineup during the lost decade and that team would have been unimaginably unwatchable. Which frankly is saying something.

We need to cherish every night of baseball we get to see with the current Reds play because it's not that it wasn't always this good, it was actually impossible to imagine it even being possible that it could become this good.

kaldaniels
08-15-2012, 04:55 PM
I'd love for Dunn to get to 600 somehow and go into the Hall as a Red.....yep, it's a reach but I'd love it.

wolfboy
08-15-2012, 05:43 PM
I'd love for Dunn to get to 600 somehow and go into the Hall as a Red.....yep, it's a reach but I'd love it.

If he gets to 600, less than half would have come as a Red.

kaldaniels
08-15-2012, 05:45 PM
If he gets to 600, less than half would have come as a Red.

But would he have hit more for any other team? Neither you or I know.

Wonderful Monds
08-15-2012, 05:48 PM
If Dunn goes into the Hall, it won't be without winning it all somewhere, a feat he never accomplished here, let alone even having a winning season. I have a feeling Adam would go into the Hall not as a Red.

kaldaniels
08-15-2012, 05:50 PM
If Dunn goes into the Hall, it won't be without winning it all somewhere, a feat he never accomplished here, let alone even having a winning season. I have a feeling Adam would go into the Hall not as a Red.

I don't believe that to be true. You may.

Wonderful Monds
08-15-2012, 05:57 PM
I don't believe that to be true. You may.

He's gonna need a boost from something (but I don't believe he will be coming close to 600 HR either.)

wolfboy
08-15-2012, 06:11 PM
He's gonna need a boost from something (but I don't believe he will be coming close to 600 HR either.)

He'll have to average around 33 homers a season over the next six. Highly unlikely, but not entirely impossible I suppose.

Wonderful Monds
08-15-2012, 06:15 PM
He'll have to average around 33 homers a season over the next six. Highly unlikely, but not entirely impossible I suppose.

Not impossible, but I don't see that happening. I don't think he'll even play nearly that long truth be told.

wolfboy
08-15-2012, 06:18 PM
But would he have hit more for any other team? Neither you or I know.

Pretty safe to say that he's not going to surpass the 270 he hit here with any other team. Assuming he finished his career with the White Sox, he'd have to reach 625 HR in his career to reach 271 with the White Sox. I suppose you're probably right that he'll go as a Red if he ever goes. I guess it's just hard to see since his tenure here was so controversial.

westofyou
08-15-2012, 06:20 PM
Pretty safe to say that he's not going to surpass the 270 he hit here with any other team. Assuming he finished his career with the White Sox, he'd have to reach 625 HR in his career to reach 271 with the White Sox. I suppose you're probably right that he'll go as a Red if he ever goes. I guess it's just hard to see since his tenure here was so controversial.

He doesn't get to make the choice IIRC

wolfboy
08-15-2012, 06:21 PM
Not impossible, but I don't see that happening. I don't think he'll even play nearly that long truth be told.

You could be right, but Jim Thome is still hanging around. The DH makes it possible for Dunn to hang around for quite a while. I think it's much more unlikely he stays around 33 homers a year for much longer.

wolfboy
08-15-2012, 06:22 PM
He doesn't get to make the choice IIRC

Wade Boggs aftermath?

westofyou
08-15-2012, 06:27 PM
Wade Boggs aftermath?

Winfield also

George Foster
08-15-2012, 11:33 PM
Yeah because batting average and RBIs are good ways to tell productive players from bad ones...

If you think Adam Dunn was even a tiny part of why those Reds teams of the Lost Decade were bad then I guess you live on a different planet than I do. It was clearly a terrible pitching staff that doomed those teams. Adam Dunn led those teams to the top of the league in scoring runs yet they still couldn't win thanks to their awful pitching. Dunn was the key component to a great offense for his entire stay in Cincinnati, it wasn't his fault the pitching was below major league quality. It just doesn't make any sense at all to claim one of the most productive hitters in the league is the reason why the Reds were losers.

Yes batting average and RBI's are good ways to tell productive hitters from bad ones. I'd take Joey Votto over Dunn's HR's anyday of the week...you would too.

I never said Dunn was the reason we lost. I just stated facts about Dunn 2012, and Dunn with the Reds. If he is so productive, why did the Reds and the Nationals both lose interest in him? If the White Sox could of found someone to eat just a little of his contract this year they would of traded him after the horrible season he had last year. To Dunn's credit...he bounced back. Bounced back to his norm.

He's back this year to hitting HR's...almost always solo's but HR's none the less.
He's OBP is good due to the walks, which he is not afraid to take...to his credit..
He's still strikes out A LOT.

That's Adam Dunn's career. He's still in the majors, doing his thing. He's perfect in the American League due to the DH. I wish him well. I'm just glad he's not playing left field for us.

Nasty_Boy
08-16-2012, 12:07 AM
Yes batting average and RBI's are good ways to tell productive hitters from bad ones. I'd take Joey Votto over Dunn's HR's anyday of the week...you would too.

I never said Dunn was the reason we lost. I just stated facts about Dunn 2012, and Dunn with the Reds. If he is so productive, why did the Reds and the Nationals both lose interest in him? If the White Sox could of found someone to eat just a little of his contract this year they would of traded him after the horrible season he had last year. To Dunn's credit...he bounced back. Bounced back to his norm.

He's back this year to hitting HR's...almost always solo's but HR's none the less.He's OBP is good due to the walks, which he is not afraid to take...to his credit..
He's still strikes out A LOT.

That's Adam Dunn's career. He's still in the majors, doing his thing. He's perfect in the American League due to the DH. I wish him well. I'm just glad he's not playing left field for us.

RBIs and BA can help tell the difference between good and bad hitters, but in no way do they paint the entire picture... Why are we comparing Dunn to Votto? Votto is clearly the superior player. I don't see anyone claiming otherwise. The bolded part is a joke, but whatever... Also, how do you know the Reds and Nats lost interest? Money, prospects, and the need for him to play DH don't mean they've lost interest. He's been big time for the Sox this year, and hit a ton of big HRs. He's quite possibly their MVP and I'm pretty sure they're in 1st place.

westofyou
08-16-2012, 12:19 AM
51% of Dunn's HR's this year have been solo

Nasty_Boy
08-16-2012, 12:47 AM
51% of Dunn's HR's this year have been solo

Is that pretty close league average? I'd say about 50% of all HRs are solo shots.

VR
08-16-2012, 01:50 AM
I don't think Dunner likes baseball enough to hang around for 600. JMO.

RedsManRick
08-16-2012, 02:44 AM
This random post on Fangraphs says that 57% of HRs b/w 2006 and 2009 were solo. If anything, I imagine an even greater percent are solo in the current run environment.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/flying-solo/

OnBaseMachine
08-16-2012, 03:23 AM
Dunn hit #399 tonight.

AtomicDumpling
08-16-2012, 04:27 AM
Yes batting average and RBI's are good ways to tell productive hitters from bad ones. I'd take Joey Votto over Dunn's HR's anyday of the week...you would too.

I never said Dunn was the reason we lost. I just stated facts about Dunn 2012, and Dunn with the Reds. If he is so productive, why did the Reds and the Nationals both lose interest in him? If the White Sox could of found someone to eat just a little of his contract this year they would of traded him after the horrible season he had last year. To Dunn's credit...he bounced back. Bounced back to his norm.

He's back this year to hitting HR's...almost always solo's but HR's none the less.
He's OBP is good due to the walks, which he is not afraid to take...to his credit..
He's still strikes out A LOT.

That's Adam Dunn's career. He's still in the majors, doing his thing. He's perfect in the American League due to the DH. I wish him well. I'm just glad he's not playing left field for us.

Ahh, the old Dunn isn't as good as Votto (or Pujols) so therefore he sucks argument. Classic.

I guess you can't argue with the hundreds of RBIs, hundreds of Runs Scored, hundreds of walks and hundreds of home runs so you just have to resort to saying he isn't a Hall of Famer. You have to ignore the stellar OBP and SLG (you know, the stats that actually matter) and whine about the batting average and strikeouts.

When a team stinks it is usually their best player's fault right? :confused: Blaming Adam Dunn for the Lost Decade is like blaming Mario Soto for those awful 80's Reds teams.

Tom Servo
08-16-2012, 04:33 AM
Also the Nationals never really lost interest in Dunn, they had a deal on the table for him before he hit free agency but he wanted to test the waters and ended up getting the big contract in Chicago.

AtomicDumpling
08-16-2012, 04:46 AM
Adam Dunn's career stats at the age of 32 years old:

399 Home Runs -- (#50 on the All-Time Career list)
1003 RBIs -- (#270 on the All-Time Career list)
969 Runs Scored -- (#353 on the All-Time Career list)
1147 Walks -- (#69 on the All-Time Career list)
1977 Strikeouts -- (#6 on the All-Time Career list)
.241 Batting Average -- (Not Ranked in top 1000)
.371 On-Base % -- (#236 on the All-Time Career list)
.502 Slugging % -- (#93 on the All-Time Career list)
.873 OPS -- (#109 on the All-Time Career list)


Some people get fixated on those strikeouts and the Batting Average and are unable to comprehend just how phenomenally productive Dunn has been in his career.

If he plays just three more years and retires at the relatively early age of 35 he will likely have achieved Hall of Fame caliber totals in Home Runs, RBIs, Runs Scored and Walks. If he keeps playing until 38 or 40 like Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Jason Giambi, Chipper Jones or Raul Ibanez he will rack up totals that will be impossible to keep out of the Hall. He is likely to finish his career in the top 25 for career Home Runs and the top 100 for career Runs and the top 100 for career RBIs and top 40 in career Walks. There are only about 5-7 players in history that have hit more home runs than Adam Dunn that are not in the Hall of Fame or one day will be in the Hall of Fame (Jose Canseco, Dave Kingman, Juan Gonzalez etc are the exceptions) and Dunn is very likely to pass all of them in the next couple years. Combine that with the fact that batting average is taken less and less seriously as an important stat as time goes by and it becomes quite conceivable if not downright probable that Adam Dunn could get elected to the Hall of Fame one day -- if he continues to be productive at the plate for 3-5 more years at least. Longevity is a key necessity for enshrinement in the HOF, not too many guys have made the Hall after retiring in their early-mid 30's. You have to keep playing well past your prime to rack up those career totals.

Wonderful Monds
08-16-2012, 05:01 AM
Adam Dunn's career stats at the age of 32 years old:

399 Home Runs
1003 RBIs
969 Runs Scored
1147 Walks
1977 Strikeouts
.241 Batting Average
.371 On-Base %
.502 Slugging %
.873 OPS


Some people get fixated on those strikeouts and the Batting Average and are unable to comprehend just how phenomenally productive Dunn has been in his career.

If he plays just three more years and retires at the relatively early age of 35 he will likely have achieved Hall of Fame caliber totals in Home Runs, RBIs, Runs Scored and Walks. If he keeps playing until 38 or 40 like Jim Thome or Raul Ibanez he will rack up totals that will be impossible to keep out of the Hall.

It's posts like these that always polarized people in camps for or against Dunn. To call Dunn "phenomenally productive" is completely hyperbolic. Adam has been a kinda above average left fielder most of his career, closer to average when you factor in his defense and consider that he probably has played out of position most of his career. The annual 40 HRs may have shined up his numbers a bit, but his career OPS is more solidly above average than it is "phenomenon" or "superstar" level for a player at a power position.

In summary, I guess my point is, the hype never quite met the reality of Adam Dunn. And two, that you can't really fault people for comparing Adam to the game's best players, and then turn around yourself and use such grand descriptors of his talent such as "phenomenon."

Wonderful Monds
08-16-2012, 05:05 AM
And as to the last part of that statement, Adam Dunn absolutely will not play to a high level until the age of 38. His contact abilities have *already* eroded to be worse than any of those players' at any point in their careers. Adam might be lucky to play productively for another 2 or 3 years at a reasonable level before his abilities erode beyond major league quality.

AtomicDumpling
08-16-2012, 05:38 AM
And as to the last part of that statement, Adam Dunn absolutely will not play to a high level until the age of 38. His contact abilities have *already* eroded to be worse than any of those players' at any point in their careers. Adam might be lucky to play productively for another 2 or 3 years at a reasonable level before his abilities erode beyond major league quality.

People have been saying that for years and he keeps on ticking. :thumbup:

There have been plenty of other big, lumbering sluggers that played until they were old: Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Frank Thomas, Tony Perez, Harmon Killebrew, Willie Stargell, Eddie Murray, Andres Galarraga, Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz is getting there, and many, many more.

I wouldn't write Dunn off as done just yet. You might be right that he will not last much longer, but I think history shows there is a good chance he will continue playing for a few more years. Maybe longer.

camisadelgolf
08-16-2012, 05:38 AM
Adam Dunn's career stats at the age of 32 years old:

399 Home Runs -- (#50 on the All-Time Career list)
1003 RBIs -- (#270 on the All-Time Career list)
969 Runs Scored -- (#353 on the All-Time Career list)
1147 Walks -- (#69 on the All-Time Career list)
1977 Strikeouts -- (#6 on the All-Time Career list)
.241 Batting Average -- (Not Ranked in top 1000)
.371 On-Base % -- (#236 on the All-Time Career list)
.502 Slugging % -- (#93 on the All-Time Career list)
.873 OPS -- (#109 on the All-Time Career list)


Some people get fixated on those strikeouts and the Batting Average and are unable to comprehend just how phenomenally productive Dunn has been in his career.

If he plays just three more years and retires at the relatively early age of 35 he will likely have achieved Hall of Fame caliber totals in Home Runs, RBIs, Runs Scored and Walks. If he keeps playing until 38 or 40 like Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Jason Giambi, Chipper Jones or Raul Ibanez he will rack up totals that will be impossible to keep out of the Hall. He is likely to finish his career in the top 25 for career Home Runs and the top 100 for career Runs and the top 100 for career RBIs and top 40 in career Walks. There are only about 5-7 players in history that have hit more home runs than Adam Dunn that are not in the Hall of Fame or one day will be in the Hall of Fame (Jose Canseco, Dave Kingman, Juan Gonzalez etc are the exceptions) and Dunn is very likely to pass all of them in the next couple years. Combine that with the fact that batting average is taken less and less seriously as an important stat as time goes by and it becomes quite conceivable if not downright probable that Adam Dunn could get elected to the Hall of Fame one day -- if he continues to be productive at the plate for 3-5 more years at least. Longevity is a key necessity for enshrinement in the HOF, not too many guys have made the Hall after retiring in their early-mid 30's. You have to keep playing well past your prime to rack up those career totals.
You're mainly talking about counting stats. Do you think Jamie Moyer is destined for the Hall, too? What about Edgar Martinez? I bring up Martinez because he was mainly a designated hitter. Although Dunn hasn't had much time as a DH, I'm willing to disregard all his bad defense that negated a huge chunk of his productive offense.

AtomicDumpling
08-16-2012, 05:40 AM
It's posts like these that always polarized people in camps for or against Dunn. To call Dunn "phenomenally productive" is completely hyperbolic. Adam has been a kinda above average left fielder most of his career, closer to average when you factor in his defense and consider that he probably has played out of position most of his career. The annual 40 HRs may have shined up his numbers a bit, but his career OPS is more solidly above average than it is "phenomenon" or "superstar" level for a player at a power position.

In summary, I guess my point is, the hype never quite met the reality of Adam Dunn. And two, that you can't really fault people for comparing Adam to the game's best players, and then turn around yourself and use such grand descriptors of his talent such as "phenomenon."

I would say top 100 in baseball history counts as phenomenally productive, and he is on pace to be top 100 in all the biggest counting stats in the game within a few more years.

AtomicDumpling
08-16-2012, 05:45 AM
You're mainly talking about counting stats. Do you think Jamie Moyer is destined for the Hall, too? What about Edgar Martinez? I bring up Martinez because he was mainly a designated hitter. Although Dunn hasn't had much time as a DH, I'm willing to disregard all his bad defense that negated a huge chunk of his productive offense.

It is an interesting question. No I don't think Jamie Moyer should be destined for the Hall. Moyer played until he was 50 years old. Adam Dunn is 32. If Dunn plays until he is 50 he will break Hank Aaron's records. I think Edgar Martinez will get in eventually and he deserves it.

Dunn's rate stats are excellent too, but yes it is mainly his counting stats that might garner him some Hall of Fame mojo. It is all going to come down to how long he plays at a productive level. Right now he is definitely ahead of pace, but who knows how much longer that will continue?

Some of us will be rooting for him, some of us will be rooting against him. Either way it should be fun.

Oh, I didn't say Adam Dunn was definitely destined for the Hall. I said his stats will be Hall of Fame caliber if he continues to be a productive hitter for 3-5 more years at least. That is a big if.

jojo
08-16-2012, 06:29 AM
I would say top 100 in baseball history counts as phenomenally productive, and he is on pace to be top 100 in all the biggest counting stats in the game within a few more years.

Dunn really doesn't have a realistic chance of being elected into the HOF.

AtomicDumpling
08-16-2012, 06:38 AM
Dunn really doesn't have a realistic chance of being elected into the HOF.

If he gets to top 25 in Home Runs and top 100 in RBIs and Runs Scored, then he will almost certainly get elected into the Hall of Fame. He has a very realistic chance of reaching those numbers.

mth123
08-16-2012, 07:05 AM
If he gets to top 25 in Home Runs and top 100 in RBIs and Runs Scored, then he will almost certainly get elected into the Hall of Fame. He has a very realistic chance of reaching those numbers.

If he does that, I'd vote for him, but I don't think the writers will. IMO, he has to get to 600 HR to have a chance to get in. Its not impossible IMO.

jojo
08-16-2012, 07:20 AM
If he gets to top 25 in Home Runs and top 100 in RBIs and Runs Scored, then he will almost certainly get elected into the Hall of Fame. He has a very realistic chance of reaching those numbers.

Dunn is in decline. At his peak, he was known as much for bad defense and strikeouts as he was for his power. He has no playoff heroics and unfortunately had an epic slump during one of the few playoff chases he was afforded. He has no real honors amongst her peers, managing only two AS appearances. Heck he doesn't even have a silver slugger.

As sabermetrics creeps more and more into the discussion of the hall, his chances only get smaller.

He'd better eclipse 600 HRs and probably by a good margin to just even enter the conversation.

jojo
08-16-2012, 07:22 AM
Who thinks of Dunn as one of the best players of his generation?

kbrake
08-16-2012, 08:30 AM
I think if he gets to 600 with no suspicion of PED use he has to get some serious consideration. For him to get to 600 he would have to be a great offensive player for a very long time.

redsfandan
08-16-2012, 09:05 AM
The Reds problem was never Griffey, Dunn, or their contracts. The Reds problem was they couldn't develop pitching. It's pretty simple.
I think the contracts didn't help. It's never good when two players (with flaws) make so much of the team payroll.

But, the biggest problem was that there wasn't a real will to build a winning team/organization.


Who thinks of Dunn as one of the best players of his generation?

Not me. Dunn had good points and bad points. But, I think he was overrated more by some than underrated by others.

Sea Ray
08-16-2012, 09:57 AM
Ahh, the old Dunn isn't as good as Votto (or Pujols) so therefore he sucks argument. Classic.

I guess you can't argue with the hundreds of RBIs, hundreds of Runs Scored, hundreds of walks and hundreds of home runs so you just have to resort to saying he isn't a Hall of Famer. You have to ignore the stellar OBP and SLG (you know, the stats that actually matter) and whine about the batting average and strikeouts.

When a team stinks it is usually their best player's fault right? :confused: Blaming Adam Dunn for the Lost Decade is like blaming Mario Soto for those awful 80's Reds teams.

Why post such an inflammatory paragraph? Do you just want to rile up the board? He clearly said that Dunn was not responsible for the lost decade but you just HAD to throw that last paragraph in there anyway. Did you notice that he said this:


I never said Dunn was the reason we lost

He never said that Dunn sucked yet you start your post with that...Shame on you:thumbdown:

MWM
08-16-2012, 10:31 AM
I cant' imagine Dunn will ever even sniff the HOF. I was one of the guy's biggest fans while he was in Cincy and still love the guy. But he's not a HOF player, and not even that close if you ask me.

Dunn has a very unique place in my fandom. He was my favorite player for much of the lost decade, and so much nonsense was heaped on him by the likes thoughtless wonks like Marty Brenneman, that I wound up constantly defending him to the point it might have appeared like I thought he was a HOF'er.

At the same time and even as much as I like the guy, he's also perhaps my biggest disappointment of the last decade. I know it's unfair to compare him to Pujols or to what Votto is now, but I still can't help but think he underachieved in his career. My disappointment lied in the fact that he didn't seem to get much better than when he first came up at 21 years old. I never expected him to become Pujols, but I do think he could have been better than he was. I have some theories about why he never progressed to what many thought he'd be, but it's pure speculation and moot at this point. I love the guy, but he was still a disappointment to me.

_Sir_Charles_
08-16-2012, 10:33 AM
Ahh, the old Dunn isn't as good as Votto (or Pujols) so therefore he sucks argument. Classic.

I guess you can't argue with the hundreds of RBIs, hundreds of Runs Scored, hundreds of walks and hundreds of home runs so you just have to resort to saying he isn't a Hall of Famer. You have to ignore the stellar OBP and SLG (you know, the stats that actually matter) and whine about the batting average and strikeouts.

When a team stinks it is usually their best player's fault right? :confused: Blaming Adam Dunn for the Lost Decade is like blaming Mario Soto for those awful 80's Reds teams.

AD, back off a bit. He's not blaming Dunn for the lost decade. He's not saying Dunn's a bad player. He's saying that he hits alot of HR's. He walks alot. He strikes out alot. And he's a bad defender. Any of that not true? He said he hits mostly solo shots. I think he's wrong on that one, but I can certainly understand where he gets that feeling from. There were certainly times it felt like that when he was here in Cincy, but that was just my gut feeling, not actually stat-backed.

I'm kind of in the same boat as George in regards to Dunn. I like my players to hit for a decent average. I like players to take walks, but I don't like to see my clean-up hitter not getting hits or striking out with men on base. Dunn does that more than most. The HR's are great, but more contact was what I always wanted from Dunn. It seemed that he was OVERLY patient at the plate, to his detriment. I may be wrong, but I always wanted Adam to be MORE aggressive during his AB's. If he strikes out, fine...but at least swing at the strikes. Again, this is just my feeling as the eye test on Dunn is usually pretty deceptive. Great guy, some great skills, but frustrating as hell in many regards.

_Sir_Charles_
08-16-2012, 10:41 AM
Dunn really doesn't have a realistic chance of being elected into the HOF.

I agree with this. While I like Dunn as a player, put it in this regard...how many times has Dunn been elected to an All Star game? How many MVP votes has he gotten over the years? How has he fared in the Triple Crown stats over the years?

Guys like Dunn (and there aren't many) usually need some THING to push them over the top. Some intangible. WS rings. Gold glove defense. Record breaking stats. Hitting streaks. Something. Unfortunately for Dunn, he doesn't have any of those things (the record setting stuff is usually the bad kind for him unfortunately).

No, I don't see him getting in. And even if he plays until he's 40...his contact skills aren't going to serve him well I'd think. Plus guys that big don't usually age very well.