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Hondo
12-03-2010, 07:25 PM
Ok guys, I was reading up in ORG about Jusin Upton ideas, and I think since the guy is available this team should seriously trade for him and bat him lead off and left field.

Ok I know he strikes out at a high high rate. But his OBP is about .350-.360 which is good enough and I see him Improving his Strike out ratio as he is only 23.

I would rather the Reds trade for him If they cannot commit dollars to Carl Crawford. Also if the Reds find a SS who can lead off and steal bases then they could move Upton down in the Lineup.

I think 1B Yonder Alonso, RHP Edinson Volquez, and 3 other Prospects could get this done.

You wouldnt have to trade Leake, Cueto, or Bruce in this scenerio so do not go there. When has a team given away established talent for a player like this who is 23 and not a consistent .300-30-100-100 run guy...

Cliff Lee cost Smoak and some also rans

Carlos Beltran cost John Buck, an ok Catcher and 2 other also rans...

Curtis Granderson cost a Minor league outfield "prospect" Austin Jackson and Phil Coke, a reliever & another pitcher already traded.

Cameron Maybin cost 2 relievers who could be great...

Dan Uggla Cost Infante, Dunn, and another pitcher...

So as you see, Upton is not going to net Leake, Bruce, Chapman, Joseph, and Fransicso as a starting point.

Upton is still going to be considered a Salary Dump, but not like a Manny Ramierez Salary Dump, there is obviously still potential.

From another Big Bat in the works to be traded....

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5880440

Trading Gonzalez now would allow Hoyer to address the multiple holes the club has entering the season while acquiring low-cost players that would remain under the team's control for up to six years.

According to the source familiar with the negotiations, the proposed deal centers only on minor leaguers, meaning the Red Sox would not lose star young reliever Daniel Bard. Hoyer and his assistant, Jason McLeod, who served as Boston's scouting director until going to San Diego, are intimately familiar with the Red Sox system. They almost certainly would seek pitcher Casey Kelly and first baseman Anthony Rizzo in any deal, with outfielder Ryan Kalish, shortstop Jose Iglesias, outfielder Josh Riddick, 19-year-old outfielder Reymond Fuentes, pitcher Stolmy Pimentel, and catcher Ryan Lavarnway also potential targets.

So you see where the "proposed" deal centers only on Minor Leaguers... In todays market, the Reds will not have to part with Leake, Chapman, Bruce, etc to trade for OF Justin Upton...

RedLakerFan24
12-03-2010, 08:13 PM
Volquez for Jason Kubel
Bailey, Alonso, Frazier, Yorman for Grienke

bshall2105
12-03-2010, 09:44 PM
Volquez for Jason Kubel
Bailey, Alonso, Frazier, Yorman for Grienke

:confused: Grienke for 2 of our top 5 and 3 of our top 10 prospects?????

Vottomatic
12-03-2010, 09:57 PM
Our minors and draft picks netted us Votto, Bruce, Hanigan, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Ondrusek, Heisey, Stubbs, etc...........and is a huge reason this team has turned it around, and now so many people on Redszone are so ready to trade it all away.

I don't get it.

mattfeet
12-04-2010, 01:17 AM
Volquez for Jason Kubel
Bailey, Alonso, Frazier, Yorman for Grienke

You're kidding me, right? :confused:








...right?

webbbj
12-04-2010, 01:26 AM
i would be all for getting justin upton but alonso, volquez and 3 prospects seems a bit much.

i mean upton is basically a young player who has shown flashes of brilliance with some inconsistency. well volquez is the same player pretty much from the SP spot.

alonso is our top prospect. him/maloney/some lower level guy should do imo for this.

or volquez + 1 lower level prospect.

in the OP example i think the dbacks have a steal.

scott91575
12-04-2010, 04:59 AM
Tough to gauge what is required to get him. You have to remember he is signed through 2015, so any guy on your list that had a short term deal you can't really compare to Upton. Plus he is also really young. His deal works out to just under $10 million a year for the next 5 years, which is pretty good for a player like him.

The closest on your list is Granderson. Yet Austin Jackson is pretty good (he was voted the Yankees best prospect, and almost won rookie of the year), and you left off Ian Kennedy (kind of important since he was a major prospect at the time, and still is). So you are looking at 2 big time prospects that the Yankees gave up (both top 25-50 prospects in baseball type guys, that is a lot). It was a 3 team deal and in essence the Tigers gave away Edwin Jackson and Kennedy for more prospects. Yet the Yankees gave up Jackson, Coke, and Kennedy to get Granderson.

For the Reds, Alonso is one, but I am not sure of the value of Volquez at this point. Perhaps you are right, but it would definitely take Alonso and a high rated arm to get Upton at the very least. Just because the Tigers did something like that does not mean the DBacks will or are asking the same price.

urdun
12-04-2010, 05:46 AM
rather have bj upton. would cost much less in money and prospects. has 3 straight seasons of 40+ steals even with a rather low obp. i think its a great buy low opportunity with a high upside. this is his 1st year arbitration eligible, he is 25 and he isnt a FA until after 2013.

Alonso, Heisey & Janish for Upton and Bartlett

lonewolf371
12-04-2010, 01:10 PM
You wouldnt have to trade Leake, Cueto, or Bruce in this scenerio so do not go there. When has a team given away established talent for a player like this who is 23 and not a consistent .300-30-100-100 run guy...

Cliff Lee cost Smoak and some also rans

Carlos Beltran cost John Buck, an ok Catcher and 2 other also rans...

Curtis Granderson cost a Minor league outfield "prospect" Austin Jackson and Phil Coke, a reliever & another pitcher already traded.

Cameron Maybin cost 2 relievers who could be great...

Dan Uggla Cost Infante, Dunn, and another pitcher...

So as you see, Upton is not going to net Leake, Bruce, Chapman, Joseph, and Fransicso as a starting point.

Upton is still going to be considered a Salary Dump, but not like a Manny Ramierez Salary Dump, there is obviously still potential.
Actually, you're taking those trades out of context. All of those trades were either rentals or small-market teams looking to get cost savings. Upton is cost controlled through 2015. The closest thing to a Justin Upton trade would be the Roberto Alomar trade where he was dealt for two All-Stars in their primes. I don't think you're looking at dealing Votto for Upton, but at least you're probably going to have to part with Bruce or Philips and a few top prospects. That's why the guy isn't getting moved.

Hondo
12-04-2010, 06:27 PM
Actually, you're taking those trades out of context. All of those trades were either rentals or small-market teams looking to get cost savings. Upton is cost controlled through 2015. The closest thing to a Justin Upton trade would be the Roberto Alomar trade where he was dealt for two All-Stars in their primes. I don't think you're looking at dealing Votto for Upton, but at least you're probably going to have to part with Bruce or Philips and a few top prospects. That's why the guy isn't getting moved.

You are really going to compare Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter going to the Toronto Blue Jays?

I rest my case.

Hondo
12-04-2010, 06:56 PM
rather have bj upton. would cost much less in money and prospects. has 3 straight seasons of 40+ steals even with a rather low obp. i think its a great buy low opportunity with a high upside. this is his 1st year arbitration eligible, he is 25 and he isnt a FA until after 2013.

Alonso, Heisey & Janish for Upton and Bartlett

Now that would be a good trade!

Hondo
12-04-2010, 06:57 PM
Tough to gauge what is required to get him. You have to remember he is signed through 2015, so any guy on your list that had a short term deal you can't really compare to Upton. Plus he is also really young. His deal works out to just under $10 million a year for the next 5 years, which is pretty good for a player like him.

The closest on your list is Granderson. Yet Austin Jackson is pretty good (he was voted the Yankees best prospect, and almost won rookie of the year), and you left off Ian Kennedy (kind of important since he was a major prospect at the time, and still is). So you are looking at 2 big time prospects that the Yankees gave up (both top 25-50 prospects in baseball type guys, that is a lot). It was a 3 team deal and in essence the Tigers gave away Edwin Jackson and Kennedy for more prospects. Yet the Yankees gave up Jackson, Coke, and Kennedy to get Granderson.

For the Reds, Alonso is one, but I am not sure of the value of Volquez at this point. Perhaps you are right, but it would definitely take Alonso and a high rated arm to get Upton at the very least. Just because the Tigers did something like that does not mean the DBacks will or are asking the same price.

Yes but Austin Jackson wasn't an established Major Leaguer so he is in the same range as Yonder Alonso...

Also look at the Adrian Gonzalez trade. No Major Leaguers.

scott91575
12-04-2010, 11:30 PM
Yes but Austin Jackson wasn't an established Major Leaguer so he is in the same range as Yonder Alonso...

Also look at the Adrian Gonzalez trade. No Major Leaguers.

Gonzalez has one year left on his deal. Again, not really comparable.

I already admitted Jackson was essentially equal to Alonso, but Ian Kennedy was still a top prospect while I am not sure Volquez has that same value.

lonewolf371
12-05-2010, 12:06 PM
You are really going to compare Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter going to the Toronto Blue Jays?

I rest my case.
Much more wrong to compare it to any of the trades you mentioned. Justin Upton trade isn't anything like those; he has a perennial All-Star/Hall of Fame ceiling and his floor is likely around where his contract is right now.

As much as you'd like to have it be that way; teams don't accept a couple of unproven prospects for potential Hall of Famers that have team-friendly contracts for the next five years.

Even with Gonzalez, the Sox only get him for one year on his current contract, but are likely to extend him with Teixeira-like money. That's totally different from what a team would have to do if they traded for Upton.

Hondo
12-05-2010, 03:55 PM
Much more wrong to compare it to any of the trades you mentioned. Justin Upton trade isn't anything like those; he has a perennial All-Star/Hall of Fame ceiling and his floor is likely around where his contract is right now.

As much as you'd like to have it be that way; teams don't accept a couple of unproven prospects for potential Hall of Famers that have team-friendly contracts for the next five years.

Even with Gonzalez, the Sox only get him for one year on his current contract, but are likely to extend him with Teixeira-like money. That's totally different from what a team would have to do if they traded for Upton.

I disagree. Even though he is under control through 2015, its at $51 Million...

And you're getting the cart before the horse on "potential Hall of Famers" here for a guy who is 23

Hondo
12-05-2010, 04:12 PM
Gonzalez has one year left on his deal. Again, not really comparable.

I already admitted Jackson was essentially equal to Alonso, but Ian Kennedy was still a top prospect while I am not sure Volquez has that same value.

In case you hadn't noticed the deal is contingent on a 72 hour window for Boston to negotiate a LTC with Gonzalez.

The Red Sox were unable to complete a deal for Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, SI.com has learned.

The Padres and Red Sox had previously reached an agreement on a trade that would have sent the All-Star to Boston for four minor league prospects. The Red Sox had a deadline until 2.p.m. ET today to sign Gonzlaez to a contract extension.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz17GlzVVN8

lonewolf371
12-05-2010, 05:30 PM
I disagree. Even though he is under control through 2015, its at $51 Million...

And you're getting the cart before the horse on "potential Hall of Famers" here for a guy who is 23
A guy who at the age of 22 had the same season Votto had at age 26. "Potential" is perfect for him.

Yeah, it's at $51 million, but free agent Justin Upton would probably net $100 million over that same time span. That's a huge cost savings for a small-market team like the Reds. Really, $10 million a year for a player of his caliber is a bargain if he pans out, and it's likely even value if he just stays where he was last year.

scott91575
12-05-2010, 08:21 PM
In case you hadn't noticed the deal is contingent on a 72 hour window for Boston to negotiate a LTC with Gonzalez.

The Red Sox were unable to complete a deal for Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, SI.com has learned.

The Padres and Red Sox had previously reached an agreement on a trade that would have sent the All-Star to Boston for four minor league prospects. The Red Sox had a deadline until 2.p.m. ET today to sign Gonzlaez to a contract extension.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz17GlzVVN8

It still does not give the Padres the negotiating power that a team with a contract already in place has. Why? Because if Boston walks away they are still stuck with Gonzalez and a 1 year deal. Hence they will take less, including a contingency on a new contract.

Sorry, it is in no way similar. Totally different player, different contract, etc. Just not applicable no matter how much you want it to be.

scott91575
12-05-2010, 08:23 PM
A guy who at the age of 22 had the same season Votto had at age 26. "Potential" is perfect for him.

Yeah, it's at $51 million, but free agent Justin Upton would probably net $100 million over that same time span. That's a huge cost savings for a small-market team like the Reds. Really, $10 million a year for a player of his caliber is a bargain if he pans out, and it's likely even value if he just stays where he was last year.

I agree. That contract should not be a concern. It's not bad for a player with just his current production, let alone a guy that is really young.

Hondo
12-05-2010, 08:24 PM
It still does not give the Padres the negotiating power that a team with a contract already in place has. Why? Because if Boston walks away they are still stuck with Gonzalez and a 1 year deal. Hence they will take less, including a contingency on a new contract.

Sorry, it is in no way similar. Totally different player, different contract, etc. Just not applicable no matter how much you want it to be.

No you're wrong. It was a part of the Deal for the 72 hour window or they dont give up 3 Blue Chip Prospects. Read the AP, yahoo, espn, fanhouse, etc...

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/12/05/adrian-gonzalez-red-sox-fail-to-reach-contract-extension-trade/

Hondo
12-05-2010, 08:26 PM
A guy who at the age of 22 had the same season Votto had at age 26. "Potential" is perfect for him.

Yeah, it's at $51 million, but free agent Justin Upton would probably net $100 million over that same time span. That's a huge cost savings for a small-market team like the Reds. Really, $10 million a year for a player of his caliber is a bargain if he pans out, and it's likely even value if he just stays where he was last year.

What did he do the year afterward? Look it up. The DBacks signed him to that contract based on potential. I really could care less about your opinion at this point. I brought up similar trades... You could make the argument that a few of the players in the trades I mentioned were and are All-Stars and had/have "Hall of Fame" potential. You're wrong. I will not agree to disagree...

This isnt Manny Ramirez yet or Joe Carter here...

scott91575
12-05-2010, 08:30 PM
No you're wrong. It was a part of the Deal for the 72 hour window or they dont give up 3 Blue Chip Prospects. Read the AP, yahoo, espn, fanhouse, etc...

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/12/05/adrian-gonzalez-red-sox-fail-to-reach-contract-extension-trade/

I KNOW THAT! Geez. Yet that contingency does not mean the Padres suddenly gain huge amounts of bargaining power. In the end, if the Pads say no thanks, they are still stuck with a guy for at best one more year. If the DBacks turn down a deal for Upton, they still have him for 5 more years.

The Red Sox know the Pads position, and therefore can offer a lower deal. Seriously, read any book on negotiating. You need to know your opponents position, especially if they decide to walk away. The Pads are in a weak negotiating position in comparison to the DBacks. Just because the Pads make the deal contingent on a long term deal does not gain them a position of power. If gains them a little bargaining power, but no where near the power if Gonzalez already had a long term deal in place.

It is not about what the Red Sox are getting, it is about what the Pads will take. The Sox know the Pads want rid of him or they get nothing a year from now. No matter how valuable Gonzalez is with a long term deal, you still negotiate to your opponents lowest level. The Pads are in a weak bargaining position vs. Gonzalaez with a long term deal in place.

It is just simply a deal that is in no way similar to any Upton deal.

lonewolf371
12-05-2010, 08:33 PM
What did he do the year afterward? Look it up. The DBacks signed him to that contract based on potential. I really could care less about your opinion at this point. I brought up similar trades... You could make the argument that a few of the players in the trades I mentioned were and are All-Stars and had/have "Hall of Fame" potential. You're wrong. I will not agree to disagree...

This isnt Manny Ramirez yet or Joe Carter here...
Hey if you want to live in your fantasy world go ahead, but Upton isn't getting moved for anything close to what you suggested. I guarantee it won't happen. If you call up the DBacks today and offer the trade you suggested they would laugh at you and hang up.

Hondo
12-05-2010, 08:37 PM
Hey if you want to live in your fantasy world go ahead, but Upton isn't getting moved for anything close to what you suggested. I guarantee it won't happen. If you call up the DBacks today and offer the trade you suggested they would laugh at you and hang up.

I think 1B Yonder Alonso, RHP Edinson Volquez, and 3 other Prospects.

So you're saying that Alonso a Number 1 Pick isn't a Good Prospect, and you're saying former All-Star Edinson Volquez who all of you guys think the Reds got the better of the Hamilton-Volquez Trade with Texas, Volquez isn't any good either?

And the Reds couldn't give up 3 more prospects between #5-#15-#20 in the organization?

So all the Reds prospects must suck and are terrible...

You're right, I was confused... :rolleyes:

scott91575
12-05-2010, 08:41 PM
I think 1B Yonder Alonso, RHP Edinson Volquez, and 3 other Prospects.

So you're saying that Alonso a Number 1 Pick isn't a Good Prospect, and you're saying former All-Star Edinson Volquez who all of you guys think the Reds got the better of the Hamilton-Volquez Trade with Texas, Volquez isn't any good either?

And the Reds couldn't give up 3 more prospects between #5-#15-#20 in the organization?

So all the Reds prospects must suck and are terrible...

You're right, I was confused... :rolleyes:

Name the other prospects. Just saying "3 more prospects" sounds like throw ins with little worth.

FTR...I don't think you are far off, but my contentions are with some of your comparisons. Your reply wasn't to me, so I wasn't calling you crazy. Yet I do question the value of Volquez at this point.

Hondo
12-05-2010, 08:52 PM
Name the other prospects. Just saying "3 more prospects" sounds like throw ins with little worth.

FTR...I don't think you are far off, but my contentions are with some of your comparisons. Your reply wasn't to me, so I wasn't calling you crazy. Yet I do question the value of Volquez at this point.

Well at least we both question the value of Volquez. :beerme:

After all that we agree on that! :thumbup:

Hondo
12-07-2010, 04:03 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5895828

Upton off the Market as of Now.

Oh well, sure was fun to debate you guys on the value of a 23 year old player.

scott91575
12-07-2010, 08:37 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5895828

Upton off the Market as of Now.

Oh well, sure was fun to debate you guys on the value of a 23 year old player.

Looks like those people giving up a crazy number of prospects were closer....


anywhere between three and five can't-miss young players, including two who, other teams were told, would have to become "the next Justin Upton.

unless 1 of your 3 throw ins was not really a throw in but one of the top Reds prospects.

Hondo
12-07-2010, 09:44 PM
Looks like those people giving up a crazy number of prospects were closer....


unless 1 of your 3 throw ins was not really a throw in but one of the top Reds prospects.

I did not intend for it to be "throw ins"

Vottomatic
12-07-2010, 11:04 PM
Looks like those people giving up a crazy number of prospects were closer....


unless 1 of your 3 throw ins was not really a throw in but one of the top Reds prospects.

He's not worth that much in trade. I don't want him.