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mth123
12-05-2010, 10:14 AM
Earlier in the off-season we heard that the Reds were looking at potentially dealing Francisco Cordero to free some payroll and address its other needs. Reading some of the comments about the Reds lack of interest in any free agents, doing the math and seeing that Reds are already looking to be over $80 Million after the arb awards and with no additions, I’m beginning to wonder if this won’t be the more likely route (if anything happens at all) than dealing some young cheap players for vets. Arroyo’s extension might just be an indication that Chapman isn’t being considered for the rotation down the road and may be ticketed for the late innings to combine with Masset and maybe Willis to replace Rhodes and Cordero. Following that line of thinking, I thought I’d look at some potential places to deal Cordero. Cordero is owed $12 Million in 2011 and has an option for another $12 Million in 2012 with a $1 Million buy-out. Any team taking him would be obligated to pay $13 Million guaranteed, so dealing Coco would mean the Reds get a bad contract back, send some money along with him or both. Here are some scenarios:

Atlanta:

The Braves might be a good match. Billy Wagner retired and while adding Scott Linebrink gets a little experience, they have alluded to wanting to get somebody to mentor Ventors and Kimbrel. Cordero might appeal to Atlanta in the right deal. The Braves have Nate McClouth coming off of a bad year and owed $6.5 Million in 2011 with an option for $10.65 Million in 2012 with a $1.25 Million buy-out. McClouth’s .620 OPS in 2010 included an horrific .378 vs. LHP. He still wasn’t great against RHP posting a .685 OPS, but he’s a lefty bat who had a .788 OPS in 2009 which included 20 HR, He put up an .833 OPS vs RHP in 410 PA’s and his OBP was .352. He’s a pretty good defender in either OF corner who can play CF if needed and in 2009 he stole 19 bases so he can run a little. 2011 might be a bounce back year for him and his 2009 numbers indicate that he would be fairly capable in a platoon that addresses either of the Reds primary needs. He could lead-off in a platoon with Heisey or he could hit in the 5 hole in a platoon with Gomes. The dollar disparity would probably require the Reds kick in a Million or two, but I think it could work and may improve the team.

The LA Angels:

If the Angels land Carl Crawford, Juan Rivera might become a $5.25 Million bench player. The Angels have already shown that they aren’t satisfied with Fernando Rodney as the primary closer and are likely looking for an established guy. The team has shown a tendency to prefer Latin players and Cordero might be right up their alley. Rivera’s righty bat isn’t ideal and he profiles a lot like Gomes so he’s not helping out a ton, but a deal of say Cordero and Gomes to the Angels for Rivera and Rodney with the Reds getting a flier on Brandon Wood to boot might not be bad.
In Cordero and Gomes the Angels get a more established closer back and a cheaper similar player for the bench than what they have in Rivera. Combined, the cost of Cordero and Gomes (including Coco’s buy-out) is $14.75 Million. Rivera and Rodney combine at a cost of $10.75 Million. Wood makes the minimum and would be a non-factor in the money. The Reds would get a guy with some closing experience to mix in with Masset and Chapman at the end of the pen and Rivera would replace Gomes. The team would have a $4 Million savings to add a lefty counterpart for Rivera (Johnny Damon??). Wood is a lottery ticket at this point but could figure into the mix at SS or as a caddy for Rolen at 3B. He and Francisco might even be a lottery ticket platoon if Rolen goes on the DL at some point.

The NY Mets:

The Mets need to prevent K-Rod from finishing 55 Games in 2011 or his option for $17.5 Million in 2012 becomes guaranteed (the Mets would also save $150K in performance bonuses). Coco sharing closing duties with K-Rod might be a pretty good way to do that while deepening the Mets pen. The Mets have lots of bad contracts to send back to the Reds, but its doubtful that they would want to do core players IMO. Cordero for Jose Reyes would save the Reds a couple Million and when avoiding K-Rod’s bonuses and option are figued in, would save the Mets as well. It would certainly satisfy the Reds lead-off and SS problems if Reyes is healthy and the team would be much improved. The Mets would be left with a hole at SS. Wilmer Flores is probably the long term answer, but he just completed A+ and probably is a year or two away. Reese Havens is another young option, but he had only 75 PA’s at AA himself. Ruben Tejada would probably play SS for now if Reyes is dealt, but he’s a light hitting young option similar to suspects that the Reds have been running out there. A deal like that might work, but the Reds would probably need to kick in a little more. Carlos Beltran is another option, but it would require the Reds to take on an $18.5 Million salary with lots of injury risk or the Mets to kick in a bunch of cash and I just don’t see either of thse happening. My guess is that the most realistic option would be for the Reds to take Oliver Perez (Owed $12 Million in 2011 in his final year) and get Angel Pagan in the process. Pagan would look pretty good leading off. He’s a switch hitter, but he’s better hitting lefty against RHP so platooning him with Gomes or Heisey would make some sense. He’s a good defender. The Reds would surely prefer to substitute Luis Castillo for Perez in that deal (owed $6 Million in 2011 in his final year), but would probably require the Reds kicking some money and some more players (maybe Heisey and/or Valaika).

The Chicago Cubs:

Cordero for Kosuke Fukudome works out money wise. Fukudome makes $13.5 Million in 2011 and Cordero is owed $13 Million with the buy-out. Fukudome could play LF and lead-off. His lefty bat would help balance the line-up, he plays good defense and in spite of being viewed as a bust, his line in 2010 was .263/.371/.439/.809. A .371 OBP would really legitimize the top of the Red’s order. The Cubs would open the OF for Soriano, Byrd and Colvin to be the regulars w/o having to eat a substantial portion of any contracts. Cordero and Marmol may combine to be a decent force at the end of the Chicago pen. Cordero’s leadership with latin players might be appealing to the Cubs. He could help mentor Marmol a bit and maybe he would be a good influence on Carlos Zambrano. Its probably unlikely, but there is some logic that could motivate both sides.

The Texas Rangers:

The Rangers might be looking to add a reliever if they can’t re-sign Lee or deal for Greinke. Another option for them may be to move Neftali Feliz back to the rotation to fill the hole and add a veteran closer. Since moving CJ Wilson worked-out so well for Texas in 2010, this is not an option that they would dismiss IMO. The Rangers don’t have any horrible contracts that they want to move, so the Reds would need to kick-in quite a bit of cash in any deal, but the Rangers have money slotted to address the rotation so if they do that with Feliz, they might take on a decent portion of Cordero’s salary. David Murphy is a LH Bat along the lines of Gomes who went .298/.368/.479/.847 in 342 PA’s versus RHP in 2010. He would be a perfect complement to Gomes in a platoon batting 5th. Murphy is first time Arb eligible for his 2011 contract so he’d likely cost around $2 to $3 Million in salary. The Reds would probably need to kick in a significant amount, but say they kick in $6 Million. They cut the payroll by $3 Million in 2011, get out from under a $1 Million buy-out for 2012 and create a strong power platoon in LF. Murphy can play 1B, so a back-up for Votto would be in hand.

Thoughts?

Mario-Rijo
12-05-2010, 10:41 AM
Reds get Fukudome and Castro
Cubs get Cordero, Alonso & Janish

;)

edabbs44
12-05-2010, 10:52 AM
Walt may have to include some coca to get the other team to take Coco. ;)

mth123
12-05-2010, 11:12 AM
Walt may have to include some coca to get the other team to take Coco. ;)

So you're saying Texas would be the best place?;)

Cooper
12-05-2010, 11:26 AM
Why would any team want him? I just don't see any team wanting the guy.

I do think that Hanigan, for whatever reason, brings out the best in Coco. The best ain't near nuff good enough.

My hope is that he could be spotted -have Hanigan catch him and hope to heck that he appears to have a good April/May (at least on the surface). If that occurs- then pull the trigger and deal him.

Wheelhouse
12-05-2010, 11:29 AM
Why would a team want a shaky closer? If Coco continues this decline, I think we're looking at a best-case scenario of mid-season release, and a hope the Reds can crawl out of whatever hole they're in after that.

Razor Shines
12-05-2010, 11:37 AM
He was just signed by TBS for a lot of money, I don't think they're going to be looking to deal him any time soon.

mth123
12-05-2010, 11:38 AM
Teams are looking to deal bad contracts of their own. If the Mets had a shot at keeping K-Rod from vesting while unloading Perez or Castillo, I'd bet they'd listen. A team like the Braves would listen for a chance to move McClouth and mentor the two young kids down there IMO. The Angels could use him and have a couple bad contracts to send back to make it nearly cash neutral.

Cordero did have 40 saves in 2010 and Dusty pretty much used both he and Rhodes up in the first half by ignoring his other options even when the team was behind at times. Some team trying to unload a bad deal of their own and hoping that an off-season of rest restores Coco a bit might be a taker. If the Reds hold onto him, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't bounce back a bit - at least until Dusty uses him up again.

Benihana
12-05-2010, 12:13 PM
The McLouth idea is interesting, I could see that working.

Can't imagine the Mets considering a Reyes-for-Cordero deal, unless the Reds added someone like Mike Leake.

mth123
12-05-2010, 12:16 PM
The McLouth idea is interesting, I could see that working.

Can't imagine the Mets considering a Reyes-for-Cordero deal, unless the Reds added someone like Mike Leake.

I can't see Reyes working either. I think the most likely scenario with the Mets is the Reds taking Oliver Perez back to make it cash neutral and getting Angel Pagan back. Maybe the Reds would need to add a bench player like Valaika.

TheNext44
12-05-2010, 12:57 PM
Codero is not a bad pitcher. He's just way overpaid. He's a nice addition to a teams bullpen, as long as he doesn't get too many important innings.

Mth has the right idea. A team looking for bullpen depth would want him, if they could unload another bad contract that they don't need.

The Fukudome deal makes the most sense to me.

Nice job mth123 :)

RedsManRick
12-05-2010, 01:01 PM
I've been pushing for the Fukudome option as well, but Fukudome is not the kind of player an old school manager can use well.

Hoosier Red
12-05-2010, 01:10 PM
The problem with the deals mentioned is that if they're not 100% cash neutral, the team is still paying a lot of money for "bullpen depth."

Take McClouth for example. If the Braves trade him for Cordero, the Braves are giving up McLouth which will save them $6.5 Million and $1.25 million in a buyout, but they're taking on Cordero who will cost $12.125 Million.

So essentially, even if the Reds get nothing out of McClouth, the Braves still are paying 4.375 for "bullpen depth." Unless they make him the closer, they're drastically overpaying for depth.

That's more than twice what I'd expect Arthur Rhodes to get for instance.

Perhaps the Reds could throw in a couple of million to help even this out, but if I'm going to have to pay $2 million + $7.75 million(McClouth) I'd rather take the chance that Cordero bounces back than that McClouth will be worthwhile.

mth123
12-05-2010, 01:16 PM
I've been pushing for the Fukudome option as well, but Fukudome is not the kind of player an old school manager can use well.

Last year's Bradley for Silva deal suggests that the Cubs are open to swapping bad contracts in hopes of finding a better fit. Hadn't thought of the old school angle, but I don't totally get it. Japanese players are usually fundamentally sound which old school managers usually love. I took Lou's dislike of Kosuke as simply Lou being his illogical self and not something I would project onto Dusty or other old school managers. Lou didn't like Paul O'Niell either. I think alot of his personality issues were him. If Lou was an announcer, he'd probably be cranky Marty. A lot of greatness in his ability but rubs way too many the wrong way.

Exacly what would the complaint be about Fukudome that would alienate old school managers in general?

mth123
12-05-2010, 01:22 PM
The problem with the deals mentioned is that if they're not 100% cash neutral, the team is still paying a lot of money for "bullpen depth."

Take McClouth for example. If the Braves trade him for Cordero, the Braves are giving up McLouth which will save them $6.5 Million and $1.25 million in a buyout, but they're taking on Cordero who will cost $12.125 Million.

So essentially, even if the Reds get nothing out of McClouth, the Braves still are paying 4.375 for "bullpen depth." Unless they make him the closer, they're drastically overpaying for depth.

That's more than twice what I'd expect Arthur Rhodes to get for instance.

Perhaps the Reds could throw in a couple of million to help even this out, but if I'm going to have to pay $2 million + $7.75 million(McClouth) I'd rather take the chance that Cordero bounces back than that McClouth will be worthwhile.

Actually, I said that the Reds would probably need to throw in a Milion or two. In the Braves case, its a safety net. They would want closing experience to mentor Ventors and Kimbrel and it would cost something on the market. That isn't Rhodes. A guy like Jenks probably isn't a great choice to be a mentor and Soriano would cost way too much. That leaves you with guys like Downs, Fuentes or Gregg and I'd guess they all will make in the $4 Million range and require more than a 1 year commitment. Coco would do his mentoring, let the kids gain experience and be out of the way at the end of 2011.

KoryMac5
12-05-2010, 01:23 PM
The only deal that I think matches up well is O Perez for Cordero. The Mets want to unload Oliver at any cost as the Wilpons don't want to release him and eat that salary. I am sure a swap of bad contracts may peak their interest. The question than would become what do the Reds do with Oliver, we already have one lefty who can't throw strikes in AAA.

Fukudome intrigues me but would the Cubs and Reds make a deal within the division knowing they play each other so much.

I think the Reds are stuck on the CoCo coaster and can't get off.

mth123
12-05-2010, 01:27 PM
The only deal that I think matches up well is O Perez for Cordero. The Mets want to unload Oliver at any cost as the Wilpons don't want to release him and eat that salary. I am sure a swap of bad contracts may peak their interest. The question than would become what do the Reds do with Oliver, we already have one lefty who can't throw strikes in AAA.

Fukudome intrigues me but would the Cubs and Reds make a deal within the division knowing they play each other so much.

I think the Reds are stuck on the CoCo coaster and can't get off.

If the Reds could get Pagan, I'd take Perez and let him be the mop-up man until I could find an excuse to DL him. He won't be worse than what the Reds got from Harang last year.

Will M
12-05-2010, 02:17 PM
1) IMO you are correct in your line of thinking. The team doesn't have a lot of money to spend. I just don't see the team dealing youth for some $10M+ player.

2) All of your deals make sense. I brought up Fukodome in the 'trade ideas' thread a while back. Coco for Fukodome would be a great deal for the Reds.
He has a no trade clause that we would have to get him to waive.
I don't understand why Lou wouldn't like him. He plays good defense in RF. Very patient at the plate. He would make a fine leadoff hitter against RHP.
His issue is that he just doesn't have the power to play a corner & isn't fast enough to play CF. However, as the LH part of a LF platoon he would work out great for the 2011 Reds. In fact he would work out so well for the team that I'd toss in a sweetener if needed.

Tom Servo
12-05-2010, 04:37 PM
He was just signed by TBS for a lot of money, I don't think they're going to be looking to deal him any time soon.
I'd trade our CoCo for Coco straight up. Cordero can host Conan and Conan can be our new closer.

http://popoholic.com/images/conan-obrien-baseball-01.jpg

RedLegSuperStar
12-06-2010, 11:08 PM
Washington Nationals:

Nats get Cordero, Chris Heisey, and Cash
Reds get Josh Willingham and Sean Burnett

LA Angels:

Angels get Cordero, Homer Bailey, Zack Cozart, and Cash
Reds get Scott Kazmir and Brandon Wood

Griffey012
12-06-2010, 11:24 PM
Washington Nationals:

Nats get Cordero, Chris Heisey, and Cash
Reds get Josh Willingham and Sean Burnett

LA Angels:

Angels get Cordero, Homer Bailey, Zack Cozart, and Cash
Reds get Scott Kazmir and Brandon Wood

While I like the Nats deal, I think the Angels deal would be awful. We would have little to no use for Kazmir. Bailey will outperform Kazmir next year, and I am not even as high on Bailey as a lot of people around here. Brandon Wood has been a monumental bust, and at this point he may not even be worth Cozart straight up.

Take Bailey out of the deal and it is a much better match up all around.

kaldaniels
12-06-2010, 11:58 PM
My best hope is that Coco steps it back up in 2011, and the Reds buy out his option year.

Trying to get rid of him and that albatross of a contract and actually get a decent net return is grasping at straws if you ask me. If it could be done, thats swell...but my hopes are not up.

Blitz Dorsey
12-07-2010, 01:52 AM
But if we get Fukudome as the LF/leadoff hitter, who is going to be the LF/leadoff hitter past the month of May?

Will M
12-11-2010, 08:20 PM
How about this one: Cordero & Gomes for J.D. Drew.

1) Reds get a left fielder. they can use Masset/Chapman as the co-closers. then maybe try to sign a cheap vet to give the pen some veteran savvy. still have Bray, Ondrusek & a host of other guys for the middle innings.

2) Sox get an arm to shore up their bullpen (they only had two above average guys in the pen last year ) & get a RH bat to platoon with Ortiz at DH ( Ortiz was terrible vs lefties last year). They can play Crawford in left, Ellsbury in center & Cameron in right.

3) the salaries are a near wash.

RedsManRick
12-11-2010, 08:41 PM
I don't think the Sox would have any interest in Gomes, but they do want to shore up the bullpen. Coco for either Drew or Ellsbury would be just fine by me.

Will M
12-11-2010, 09:19 PM
My 2nd trade idea with the Sox...
Cordero & Gomes for Mike Cameron & Marco Scutaro.


I suspect that the Sox would rather move Cameron than Drew. I suspect Ellsbury is pencilled in CF for 2011 & beyond.

I do think that they would have interest in a RH bat to platoon with Ortiz.
Ortiz had an OPS of 599 vs lefties last year. As a DH. Thats really bad.

The Sox bullpen was not a strength in 2010. Adding Crawford & Gonzalez won't help if they have a weak pen.

Reds get a left fielder. they can go out & get a cheap LH bat as a bench outfielder. Heisey & the LH bat are the 2 bench outfielders assuming Walt can't swing a major trade involving Heisey.
they fill LF & SS without taking on salary. They have cash left to maybe swing a deal for Greinke.

Sox get an arm to shore up their bullpen & get a RH bat to platoon with Ortiz at DH. They can play Crawford in left, Ellsbury in center & Drew in right.
They have been said to be trying to move Scutaro as they have Lowrie to play SS. Basically they add a decent bullpen arm and don't lose anything from the major league roster as they had an extra outfielder & an extra SS.