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View Full Version : The Werth effect: Crawford signs with Boston for 7 years/$142M



RedLegSuperStar
12-05-2010, 10:06 PM
Looking for a speedy hitter to place at the top of your lineup? Well look no further then current Free Agent Carl Crawford. The definition of a table setter. Guy can bunt for hits, steal every base, and hit for some pop when needed. What would you pay for this gem of an OFer?

Carl Crawford is looking to be on your team for the holiday price of 180 million dollars for 8 glorious years!

Thank you Nationals and to all a good night!

*This figure comes from Jayson Stark of ESPN.com

buckeyenut
12-06-2010, 10:38 AM
As I see the deals going down this offseason, I am thinking, more and more, that
a) our extension for Bronson was a very good move and likely a bargain given the way prices are going.
b) other FA adds we have made so far aren't so bad after all
c) we need to add to our team via trade rather than FA.
d) we missed our window to sign Bruce/Votto to long term deals to a real bargain
e) Cordero might not be quite as hard to deal as we thought, especially by the trading deadline after a full offseason of these crazy deals.

MattyHo4Life
12-06-2010, 10:39 AM
Looking for a speedy hitter to place at the top of your lineup? Well look no further then current Free Agent Carl Crawford. The definition of a table setter. Guy can bunt for hits, steal every base, and hit for some pop when needed. What would you pay for this gem of an OFer?

Carl Crawford is looking to be on your team for the holiday price of 180 million dollars for 8 glorious years!

Thank you Nationals and to all a good night!

*This figure comes from Jayson Stark of ESPN.com

MattyHo4Life
12-06-2010, 10:40 AM
Crawford won't get a deal near Werth's deal, because Scott Boras isn't his agent.

blumj
12-06-2010, 11:19 AM
Crawford won't get a deal near Werth's deal, because Scott Boras isn't his agent.
Not sure, I thought he'd get a deal like Werth got before I ever imagined Werth would, because he's still in his 20's. And the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels all appear to have serious interest in Crawford.

Edit: There's a reason the Red Sox haven't signed Gonzalez to an official extension yet, they're saving a lot of room under the luxury tax for something in '11, it's not Werth, and the Yankees will not let that something be Cliff Lee, and relief pitchers and bench won't get them close to luxury tax.

Brutus
12-06-2010, 04:29 PM
Not sure, I thought he'd get a deal like Werth got before I ever imagined Werth would, because he's still in his 20's. And the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels all appear to have serious interest in Crawford.

Edit: There's a reason the Red Sox haven't signed Gonzalez to an official extension yet, they're saving a lot of room under the luxury tax for something in '11, it's not Werth, and the Yankees will not let that something be Cliff Lee, and relief pitchers and bench won't get them close to luxury tax.

Luxury tax is based on average annual value. So as long as the extension occurs sometime before the season, they'll still be taxed based on the average salary of Gonzo's new contract, and not what he's actually set to make in 2011. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you and they're holding the extension off until later in the season for that reason, which would make sense.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 04:41 PM
I'm taking this all to mean the economy is on it's way back.

RedsManRick
12-06-2010, 05:08 PM
Supposedly Boston pulled out of negotiations with Crawford because of his price. Now the Angels have done the same. I think he's going to have to come back down at some point and face the reality that just because the Nats were incredibly stupid doesn't mean some other team will be. Unless Dave Dombrowski gets involved...

camisadelgolf
12-06-2010, 05:17 PM
Supposedly Boston pulled out of negotiations with Crawford because of his price. Now the Angels have done the same. I think he's going to have to come back down at some point and face the reality that just because the Nats were incredibly stupid doesn't mean some other team will be. Unless Dave Dombrowski gets involved...
Or Jocketty has a stroke that results in Bill Bavasi taking over . . .

Sea Ray
12-06-2010, 05:39 PM
Traditionally speed doesn't pay like power does.

blumj
12-06-2010, 06:23 PM
Luxury tax is based on average annual value. So as long as the extension occurs sometime before the season, they'll still be taxed based on the average salary of Gonzo's new contract, and not what he's actually set to make in 2011. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you and they're holding the extension off until later in the season for that reason, which would make sense.
No, you have it right, they'd have to wait until after opening day, like they did with Beckett's extension last year. With Gonzalez on his current deal, they're still under $150M, leaving them almost $30M under. If they don't add any more big salaries, they'd do the extension before opening day and use his lower '11 salary to even the hit out over the whole contract, so it would be more like $20M each year starting in '11, instead of $6M in '11 and $23M a year after that.

Brutus
12-06-2010, 06:34 PM
No, you have it right, they'd have to wait until after opening day, like they did with Beckett's extension last year. With Gonzalez on his current deal, they're still under $150M, leaving them almost $30M under. If they don't add any more big salaries, they'd do the extension before opening day and use his lower '11 salary to even the hit out over the whole contract, so it would be more like $20M each year starting in '11, instead of $6M in '11 and $23M a year after that.

Thanks for the clarification. That makes a lot of sense then. I wasn't sure if you meant later this offseason or after opening day. But yeah, they'd save themselves the tax by waiting until then.

OnBaseMachine
12-09-2010, 12:42 AM
Source: The Red Sox have a seven-year, $142 million deal done with Carl Crawford.

http://twitter.com/PeteAbe

Think this makes Ellsbury available?

RedLegSuperStar
12-09-2010, 12:46 AM
Wow.. Rich continue to get richer.. Glad the Reds don't play in that league. Pisses me off that teams can have there picks of top free agents and teams like the Reds get stuck with the Miggy Cairo's and Dontrelle Willis's..

paintmered
12-09-2010, 12:46 AM
$20M per year? He's all yours, Boston.

OnBaseMachine
12-09-2010, 12:47 AM
IMO, the Red Sox are now the favorites to win the World Series next year.

Caveat Emperor
12-09-2010, 12:48 AM
Traditionally speed doesn't pay like power does.

Traditionally doesn't age too well either. He'll be 35 years old when this contract expires.

RedLegSuperStar
12-09-2010, 12:49 AM
Guess now the Yankees offer 7 years to Lee at an astronomical number and will try to combat this Gonzalez/Crawford acquisitions.

RedEye
12-09-2010, 01:03 AM
Guess now the Yankees offer 7 years to Lee at an astronomical number and will try to combat this Gonzalez/Crawford acquisitions.

I wish you weren't right. At least every once in awhile teams like the Reds swoop in and sign... Aroldis Chapman. :)

Oxilon
12-09-2010, 01:06 AM
Crawford is almost making as much annually as the entire Pirates payroll. Would you take Crawford over the entire Pirates roster? Yeah, I'd take Crawford too...

mdccclxix
12-09-2010, 02:20 AM
I wish you weren't right. At least every once in awhile teams like the Reds swoop in and sign... Aroldis Chapman. :)

Yeah, what's up with the international scene this year anyway? Are the Reds in on anything?

JaxRed
12-09-2010, 02:23 AM
But I wouldn't take Crawford at 20 million per for 7 years. Crawford's a nice solid player. But he's not worth that kind of money. Never hit 20 homers, never hit more than 90 RBIs, .never hit more than .315, never OPS'd over .850.

For 20 million you should be getting mega star numbers.

This was well played by Tampa. They did exactly what a small market team needs to do. Use a player during his cheap years, and then either trade him or offer him arb and get picks.

RedsManRick
12-09-2010, 03:45 AM
FWIW, the market rate for WAR is $5M per this offseason. Crawford has averaged 4.3 WAR per season over the course of his career and put up 5.7 and 6.9 the last two years.

Big contract? Sure. But I don't think it's unreasonable given the going rate. If he stays healthy (and he's averaged over 600 PA a season for the last 8 years), I think he'll earn the money.

Ron Madden
12-09-2010, 05:16 AM
The Red Sox are going to have one heck of a lineup!

I hope they leave the Yankees in the dust.

buckeyenut
12-09-2010, 06:58 AM
FWIW, the market rate for WAR is $5M per this offseason. Crawford has averaged 4.3 WAR per season over the course of his career and put up 5.7 and 6.9 the last two years.

Big contract? Sure. But I don't think it's unreasonable given the going rate. If he stays healthy (and he's averaged over 600 PA a season for the last 8 years), I think he'll earn the money.
anyone have any idea what the market rate for WAR was the last couple of offseasons? I get a sense that the number has gone way up this year.

And does that # include things like Tulo's extension?

I think this is another sign that the baseball market has rebounded and teams have money. It also says to me that the Arroyo extension was likely a much better deal than we might have thought at the time.

MattyHo4Life
12-09-2010, 09:04 AM
But I wouldn't take Crawford at 20 million per for 7 years. Crawford's a nice solid player. But he's not worth that kind of money. Never hit 20 homers, never hit more than 90 RBIs, .never hit more than .315, never OPS'd over .850.

For 20 million you should be getting mega star numbers.

If Crawford is worth 7 years at $20 Mil per, then what is Pujols and Votto worth? This is not good timing for this contract. Right when the Cards are talking to Pujol's agent about an extension.

NJReds
12-09-2010, 09:28 AM
The Red Sox are going to have one heck of a lineup!

I hope they leave the Yankees in the dust.

They might ... but there's no difference between the Red Sox and the Yankees, especially if you're a fan of a team like the Reds.

MattyHo4Life
12-09-2010, 09:30 AM
It also says to me that the Arroyo extension was likely a much better deal than we might have thought at the time.

It makes the Matt Holliday deal look good too.

MattyHo4Life
12-09-2010, 09:32 AM
They might ... but there's no difference between the Red Sox and the Yankees, especially if you're a fan of a team like the Reds.

Yeah there is, the Red Sox are worse than the Yankees.

edabbs44
12-09-2010, 09:53 AM
If Crawford is worth 7 years at $20 Mil per, then what is Pujols and Votto worth? This is not good timing for this contract. Right when the Cards are talking to Pujol's agent about an extension.

Votto's market value right now is different. He has to weigh the unknown of his pre-FA years while Crawford was on the open market.

Votto might be worth $20MM per year now, but if he regresses or has some issues over the next couple of years, that $20MM gets into the single digits awfully fast.

Redsfan320
12-11-2010, 07:50 PM
Listening to his press conference (http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13063911) right now. His throat was killing him, but he joked through it. The more I listen, the more I like him. He sure would've been great in LF, but there's no way we could have afforded him...

320

PuffyPig
12-11-2010, 07:57 PM
Listening to his press conference (http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13063911) right now. His throat was killing him, but he joked through it. The more I listen, the more I like him. He sure would've been great in LF, but there's no way we could have afforded him...

320

He's mnot worth $20M today, and his value will only go down.

You can't pay $20M for a LF unless he really mashes.

traderumor
12-11-2010, 09:21 PM
He's mnot worth $20M today, and his value will only go down.

You can't pay $20M for a LF unless he really mashes.The Red Sox can, if you're speaking relative $. With the disparity in payrolls, you gotta consider the % of total payroll.

Brutus
12-11-2010, 09:24 PM
He's mnot worth $20M today, and his value will only go down.

You can't pay $20M for a LF unless he really mashes.

Absolutely disagree about him being worth it today. He's a heck of a player, and statistically, relative to market value, he's absolutely worth $20 million. He put up 7 wins of production last year. But I don't anticipate it will stay that way for 7 years.