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mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 01:38 AM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-redswintermeetings120510&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=br_reds


ORLANDO – The Cincinnati Reds continue to receive calls about Yonder Alonso(notes), their 23-year-old first baseman and No. 1 pick whose path to the big leagues is blocked at least in part by MVP Joey Votto(notes).

Several inquiring teams have come away from conversations with GM Walt Jocketty believing the Reds are hesitant to trade Alonso, however, because Votto could be difficult to sign to a long-term deal – both in terms of Votto’s expectations and the club’s ability to carry what would be such a large contract.

Jocketty, according to the clubs, has suggested he may be forced to trade Votto before he reaches free agency. Votto is arbitration-eligible for the first time, so the Reds might not consider trading him for at least another two years.

Alonso played 30 games in left field in the minors last season, though first base is viewed as his more natural position.

The Votto / Alonso crunch is palpable at this point if this rumor holds weight.

thatcoolguy_22
12-06-2010, 01:45 AM
Could just be a play by WJ to up the asking price somewhat. If teams think Alonso is completely unneeded, then they will only want to pay pennies on the dollar. BCast seems pretty adamant about signing Votto.

redsfandan
12-06-2010, 04:55 AM
Maybe, but Votto hasn't sounded as interested in a long term deal as Bruce. Maybe Walt is trying to up the price on Alonso. Maybe he's using Alonso as a hedge against what Votto may do. Maybe it's just part of the negotiations between Walt and Vottos agent. Maybe it's all of the above. Who knows.

At least it's nice to hear that teams are showing interest in Alonso.

Dan
12-06-2010, 07:14 AM
Votto has 3 years before he reaches free agency. That's a lifetime in terms of baseball contracts, etc. To hold onto Alonso now because of what might happen 3 years down the road is extremely foolish. I'm guessing, like others, that this is to drum up a market for Alonso more than anything.

mth123
12-06-2010, 07:31 AM
Votto has 3 years before he reaches free agency. That's a lifetime in terms of baseball contracts, etc. To hold onto Alonso now because of what might happen 3 years down the road is extremely foolish. I'm guessing, like others, that this is to drum up a market for Alonso more than anything.

:thumbup:

Eric_the_Red
12-06-2010, 07:37 AM
Votto has 3 years before he reaches free agency. That's a lifetime in terms of baseball contracts, etc. To hold onto Alonso now because of what might happen 3 years down the road is extremely foolish. I'm guessing, like others, that this is to drum up a market for Alonso more than anything.

I agree that 3 years is foolish, but 1 more season won't hurt anything. Let's give Alonso another year at AAA to continue to improve and show that he truly is legit. And give Votto another year to show what he can do in the majors. Votto won the MVP this year and, unless he wins another, I doubt his price can go much higher.

The time to make a decision on Votto/Alonso is next off-season, IMO. If they both mash, then the team should be able to trade either one to improve another area of the team.

I would hate to lose Votto, because I think he brings a work ethic and demeanor that is a good example to the rest of the team. But no matter how many tickets are sold, we will always be in a small to mid-size market, and you have to operate as such. If a trade of Votto next year can be offset with Alonso bat in the lineup in 2012 and allows the team to trade for/sign a SS, LF or ace, then I'm all for it. As much as I want to keep Votto, I want a championship more.

mth123
12-06-2010, 07:59 AM
I agree that 3 years is foolish, but 1 more season won't hurt anything. Let's give Alonso another year at AAA to continue to improve and show that he truly is legit. And give Votto another year to show what he can do in the majors. Votto won the MVP this year and, unless he wins another, I doubt his price can go much higher.

The time to make a decision on Votto/Alonso is next off-season, IMO. If they both mash, then the team should be able to trade either one to improve another area of the team.

I would hate to lose Votto, because I think he brings a work ethic and demeanor that is a good example to the rest of the team. But no matter how many tickets are sold, we will always be in a small to mid-size market, and you have to operate as such. If a trade of Votto next year can be offset with Alonso bat in the lineup in 2012 and allows the team to trade for/sign a SS, LF or ace, then I'm all for it. As much as I want to keep Votto, I want a championship more.

One more season does hurt something. The Reds need to add talent to the major league team now. Holding Alonso while Rolen continues to decline, Phillips contract comes to an end and the team continues to have holes in LF and at SS is a waste. The time to go for it is now while 2B and 3B are still solid positions and that means dealing some prospects with some value at positions of strength to add missing pieces.

Hanging onto Alonso is like punting 2011 IMO.

RedLegSuperStar
12-06-2010, 08:15 AM
MVP or unproven prospect... Hmmm

I'm sorry but if you are going to resign Arroyo and Scott Rolen and not focus on it's key asset baffles me. Trade Alonso.. Not the MVP!

Eric_the_Red
12-06-2010, 08:16 AM
One more season does hurt something. The Reds need to add talent to the major league team now. Holding Alonso while Rolen continues to decline, Phillips contract comes to an end and the team continues to have holes in LF and at SS is a waste. The time to go for it is now while 2B and 3B are still solid positions and that means dealing some prospects with some value at positions of strength to add missing pieces.

Hanging onto Alonso is like punting 2011 IMO.

I don't follow you. How does Alonso make essentially the same team from last year worse? I think Bruce improves, perhaps even Stubbs and Heisey too. The defense improves with Janish playing SS, and hopefully the young pitchers can step forward to improve also.

Trading Alonso may improve the team this year, but what happens when Votto goes somewhere else? I want to team to experience sustained success, not just a two year window.

Mario-Rijo
12-06-2010, 08:27 AM
I don't follow you. How does Alonso make essentially the same team from last year worse? I think Bruce improves, perhaps even Stubbs and Heisey too. The defense improves with Janish playing SS, and hopefully the young pitchers can step forward to improve also.

Trading Alonso may improve the team this year, but what happens when Votto goes somewhere else? I want to team to experience sustained success, not just a two year window.

Because the window as it has been set up is the next 3 seasons at best, time to ante up now, win and worry about that when the time comes. If they win now they will be in a better position to extend Joey when it comes up to help the winning to continue.

HokieRed
12-06-2010, 08:44 AM
Seems to me Walt's just being honest. Uncertainty over Votto makes trading Alonso a more difficult, complex matter over which one would be uncertain. Keeping Alonso enables Walt to entertain transactions involving Votto, not this year necessarily but perhaps next and certainly for the following year. IMHO, there's no way Votto signs for less than 100 for 6; in fact, I don't see the slightest reason he'd sign anything that would prevent him from hitting the free agent market as soon as possible. If Alonso's good enough--which we don't quite know yet, I'd contend--the right trade of Votto, at the right time, might bring both the players and free the cash needed to extend the so-called "window" a good bit longer. I should add I reject the idea the "window" depends primarily on Votto, good as he is. It mostly depends on the depth of our starting pitching; that's what won the division last year.

RedEye
12-06-2010, 08:45 AM
Maybe, but Votto hasn't sounded as interested in a long term deal as Bruce. Maybe Walt is trying to up the price on Alonso. Maybe he's using Alonso as a hedge against what Votto may do. Maybe it's just part of the negotiations between Walt and Vottos agent. Maybe it's all of the above. Who knows.


Whatever the case, it seems clear that Walt has every reason to amp up perceptions of the Reds interest in keeping Alonso. That's what you always do before you trade something, no? Unless you are having an absolute fire sale, which they obviously aren't.

Mario-Rijo
12-06-2010, 08:56 AM
Seems to me Walt's just being honest. Uncertainty over Votto makes trading Alonso a more difficult, complex matter over which one would be uncertain. Keeping Alonso enables Walt to entertain transactions involving Votto, not this year necessarily but perhaps next and certainly for the following year. IMHO, there's no way Votto signs for less than 100 for 6; in fact, I don't see the slightest reason he'd sign anything that would prevent him from hitting the free agent market as soon as possible. If Alonso's good enough--which we don't quite know yet, I'd contend--the right trade of Votto, at the right time, might bring both the players and free the cash needed to extend the so-called "window" a good bit longer. I should add I reject the idea the "window" depends primarily on Votto, good as he is. It mostly depends on the depth of our starting pitching; that's what won the division last year.

I don't know that anyone is contending that the window depends primarily on Votto. However since you bring it up it probably does take up a good part of the equation. But Arroyo has 3 more years, Rolen was extended for another 2 and alot of these youngsters will be making big money in 2-3 years including Votto. I think that is what creates the window.

As far as dealing Votto, they better never. At least not in the next 6-7 years anyway. If they do they might as well just fold this thing up, sick of seeing it. If I were a Padre fan right now I'd be livid and seriously consider moving on.

mth123
12-06-2010, 09:02 AM
I don't follow you. How does Alonso make essentially the same team from last year worse? I think Bruce improves, perhaps even Stubbs and Heisey too. The defense improves with Janish playing SS, and hopefully the young pitchers can step forward to improve also.

Trading Alonso may improve the team this year, but what happens when Votto goes somewhere else? I want to team to experience sustained success, not just a two year window.

Holding onto Alonso doesn't make the team worse, it simply passes on the opportunity to make a good team strong enough to win. Right now the window is 2011 and 2012. After that 2B and 3B will be holes. The core will be expensive. The same team in 2011 won't be good enough IMO. They made the play-offs by playing in a weak division and beating up on those weak teams. Good teams manhandled the Reds not only in the play-offs but all season. In 2011, they won't get a two month Cy Young turn from Leake. They won't likely get a two month Cy Young run from Travis Wood either. They will see declines at 3B, C and most of the bench players. In the line-up, I'm guessing that we won't see an .800 OPS at 3B, its possible we won't see a .700 OPS behind the plate and there is a very real possibility that we won't see a .600 OPS at SS. IMO the team needs to add talent to the major league team to not only get to the next level, but to offset the drop-offs we're likely to see in multiple spots. I see a solid team that can win with the right addition or two, but status quo isn't good enough.

If/when Votto leaves it might be nice to have Alonso around, but he's most likely nothing more than a backfill and not an MVP caliber replacement. Backfills at 1B can be had pretty easily and there is no need to hang onto him for that. If things go well he's Dan Dreissen to Votto's Perez. But Dan Driessen's are out there every year in the form of the Lyle Overbays, Adam Laroches, aging Lance Berkmans or aging Derek Lees of the world. Other than the long shot chance that Alonso becomes an upper echelon player, there really isn't a future value that he'll have to make it worth passing on an upgrade when the team is in position. I won't pass on the now on the long shot bet that Alonso becomes that caliber and at 1B, even if he's only a notch below, a similar guy won't be hard to find. If he was a starting pitcher or a middle infielder it might be different.

hebroncougar
12-06-2010, 09:05 AM
I deal Alonso ASAP. I still try and find something Tampa has that I want/need, or at least include them in a 3 way.

I(heart)Freel
12-06-2010, 09:12 AM
If/when Votto leaves it might be nice to have Alonso around, but he's most likely nothing more than a backfill and not an MVP caliber replacement. Backfills at 1B can be had pretty easily and there is no need to hang onto him for that.

I agree with this. I like Alonso, but if you can get something you need for him now, you do it. If Votto shows no signs of signing a LTC in the next two years, then you either ask for a stud 1B prospect in the package of players you require for him, or you use some of the money you earmarked for Votto to go get a league average 1B who are seemingly available every off-season.

Orenda
12-06-2010, 09:16 AM
Could just be a play by WJ to up the asking price somewhat. If teams think Alonso is completely unneeded, then they will only want to pay pennies on the dollar. BCast seems pretty adamant about signing Votto.

Jocketty knows what he is doing here, if he is thinking about trading Alonso he knows that it's not going to help his return if he makes it sound like he is just trying to deal him within a limited time frame.

buckeyenut
12-06-2010, 09:33 AM
We can help the team by dealing Alonso now, or by dealing Alonso at the deadline. Obviously, now helps more, but I think we have enough to get us to the playoffs already so better to find the right deal.

Dan
12-06-2010, 09:57 AM
I deal Alonso ASAP. I still try and find something Tampa has that I want/need, or at least include them in a 3 way.

Alonso and Leake/Bailey plus prospects for Garza and Joyce.

Another point about the Alonso/Votto debate. I think this was made before, but let me reiterate it. This isn't an either/or decision. A Votto trade could return a 1b prospect of equal or greater value than Alonso. Or a 3b prospect of that caliber and Rolen moves to 1b to finish his career. Or the Reds draft another 1b who is ready in 3 years (Alonso took 2.5 years to develop). Holding on to Alonso while he has trade value is a waste of resources, plain and simple.

mth123
12-06-2010, 10:11 AM
Alonso and Leake/Bailey plus prospects for Garza and Joyce.

Another point about the Alonso/Votto debate. I think this was made before, but let me reiterate it. This isn't an either/or decision. A Votto trade could return a 1b prospect of equal or greater value than Alonso. Or a 3b prospect of that caliber and Rolen moves to 1b to finish his career. Or the Reds draft another 1b who is ready in 3 years (Alonso took 2.5 years to develop). Holding on to Alonso while he has trade value is a waste of resources, plain and simple.

Amen

camisadelgolf
12-06-2010, 10:11 AM
Alonso and Leake/Bailey plus prospects for Garza and Joyce.

Another point about the Alonso/Votto debate. I think this was made before, but let me reiterate it. This isn't an either/or decision. A Votto trade could return a 1b prospect of equal or greater value than Alonso. Or a 3b prospect of that caliber and Rolen moves to 1b to finish his career. Or the Reds draft another 1b who is ready in 3 years (Alonso took 2.5 years to develop). Holding on to Alonso while he has trade value is a waste of resources, plain and simple.
Garza isn't an ace; he's more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter, so I'm not really sure a need is filled there. And if the Rays are going to deal Garza, I'm sure they'd have interest in only positional players or relievers.
Garza >>> Leake/Bailey (right now--later on, it might turn out to be a wash)
Joyce > Alonso (not by much, but it could change either way later on)
It would have to take at least one major prospect to make this deal happen, and like I said, the pitchers aren't filling needs for either team.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 12:12 PM
Grandal is another option at 1b, especially if Mez is legit.

RedsManRick
12-06-2010, 12:20 PM
I'm not sure I understand Walt's logic, unless 1 of 2 things is going on:

1) There's some thought about trading Votto sooner rather than later.
2) He's strengthening his bargaining position by suggesting that the Reds value Alonso more highly than others may think

If Votto's contract status isn't an issue for a few years, you're talking about letting a ripe Alonso rot on the vine in AAA. It's not hard to find quality 1B options; it's just not. If and when you have to Votto, if it comes to that, you can always include a 1B as part of the package coming back. As far as I'm concerned, given that the Reds' future is now and that there's so much uncertainty about the future, it seems odd to simply sit on a significant asset. I think it's still likely that if Walt makes a trade, Alonso is part of it.

kaldaniels
12-06-2010, 12:21 PM
Alonso and Leake/Bailey plus prospects for Garza and Joyce.

Another point about the Alonso/Votto debate. I think this was made before, but let me reiterate it. This isn't an either/or decision. A Votto trade could return a 1b prospect of equal or greater value than Alonso. Or a 3b prospect of that caliber and Rolen moves to 1b to finish his career. Or the Reds draft another 1b who is ready in 3 years (Alonso took 2.5 years to develop). Holding on to Alonso while he has trade value is a waste of resources, plain and simple.

I'm not sure how long you define "holding onto". But unless I'm bowled over today, I want Alonso in AAA hopefully fully recovered from the wrist injury putting up some great numbers this year. That will make him more valuable than he is today.

Eric_the_Red
12-06-2010, 01:22 PM
I'm not sure how long you define "holding onto". But unless I'm bowled over today, I want Alonso in AAA hopefully fully recovered from the wrist injury putting up some great numbers this year. That will make him more valuable than he is today.

Exactly. Again, I think this off-season is jumping the gun if the Reds dealt either one. Let's see what we have before we make a deal, lest we end up with no ML ready first baseman.

I also think the Reds can contend as is. Some more help would be nice, but if the season started today the Reds would be my pick to win the division again.

Ghosts of 1990
12-06-2010, 01:26 PM
I think they're going to wait and see whether or not Joey Votto is truly going to try and break the bank with a new contract. And I'll admit, the more time goes on I think we're all being a little naive to think that "he just wants to stay in a small town and play in Cincinnati because it's quaint and our city is a good baseball city".

Joey's quotes aren't sounding like he really knows what he is going to do yet. I saw firsthand a fan base selling themselves that an athlete was going to 'do the right thing' in their eyes and re-sign with the cavs when the fold should have been seen long before.

There are some smoke signals here--and its a very real possibility that Votto leaves here when his contract is up. Yes, he could yield first base prospects who are top of the line; but they're only prospects at the end of the day. Walt & co must feel like Alonso is another sure thing, they're being very careful with dangling him. It's weird

backbencher
12-06-2010, 01:42 PM
2) He's strengthening his bargaining position by suggesting that the Reds value Alonso more highly than others may think


This.

It's clearly a story planted by the Reds. Who else in baseball gives a hill of beans about Alonso? No fanbases are clamoring to trade for him, no reporters were told to ask Jocketty about him.

(That's not a knock on Alonso -- just the reality of a non-megastar AAA 1B.)

TheNext44
12-06-2010, 01:44 PM
.289/.386/.477

.291/.368/.458

First line is Votto's minor league career slash line.

Second is Alonso's minor league career slash line.

Alonso's includes a serious hand injury for most of it.

Even their AAA numbers are similar.

My only point is that shouldn't act like we know that Alonso will be a generic, easy to find 1B. Everyone said the same thing about Votto when he was coming up. Votto too was considered the Reds most tradable asset.

Caveat Emperor
12-06-2010, 02:59 PM
I'm not sure I understand Walt's logic, unless 1 of 2 things is going on:

1) There's some thought about trading Votto sooner rather than later.
2) He's strengthening his bargaining position by suggesting that the Reds value Alonso more highly than others may think.

Walt's in a fascinating game here where Alonso is his best chip against Votto (if they don't work out a deal with Votto, they can go year-to-year and then ship him someplace next year and install Alonso at first), but Votto is also the best chip Walt has against other team's for Alonso (as long as a deal ISN'T in place, Alonso still has perceived value to the club).

Once Votto signs, Alonso's value tanks -- but once Alonso is dealt, Votto's asking price probably increases.

RANDY IN INDY
12-06-2010, 03:06 PM
Walt's in a fascinating game here where Alonso is his best chip against Votto (if they don't work out a deal with Votto, they can go year-to-year and then ship him someplace next year and install Alonso at first), but Votto is also the best chip Walt has against other team's for Alonso (as long as a deal ISN'T in place, Alonso still has perceived value to the club).

Once Votto signs, Alonso's value tanks -- but once Alonso is dealt, Votto's asking price probably increases.

Wise, you are.;)

pedro
12-06-2010, 03:09 PM
I think the Reds will keep Alonso this year and if he does well they'll trade Votto next off season.

Brutus
12-06-2010, 03:17 PM
Could just be a play by WJ to up the asking price somewhat. If teams think Alonso is completely unneeded, then they will only want to pay pennies on the dollar. BCast seems pretty adamant about signing Votto.

Yes!

If teams sense there's no reason to keep Alonso, it lowers the leverage a bit. By floating the idea that Votto may not be able to be signed, it increases the asking price.

REDREAD
12-06-2010, 03:32 PM
My thought is that a GM calling Walt about Alonso doesn't really care if the Reds have Votto or not. I think this idea that other GMs think they will get a discount by trading for a prospect that is blocked by a vet is way overplayed. Look at it this way.. Say that hypothetically, something over the winter ends Votto's career.. Would opposing GMs suddenly offer more for Alonso? I don't think so. They are willing to pay X for Alonso, whether the Reds have one 1b or 100 queued up. They know the Reds can easily park Alonso at AAA next season. There's no urgency to trade him.

I agree that it's silly to hang on to Alonso as insurance in case Votto leaves, unless Walt feels that Votto is definitely gone after next year. I think Walt is just being honest. I agree that it's questionable whether the Reds will be able to sign Votto long term or not.

Brutus
12-06-2010, 03:37 PM
My thought is that a GM calling Walt about Alonso doesn't really care if the Reds have Votto or not. I think this idea that other GMs think they will get a discount by trading for a prospect that is blocked by a vet is way overplayed. Look at it this way.. Say that hypothetically, something over the winter ends Votto's career.. Would opposing GMs suddenly offer more for Alonso? I don't think so. They are willing to pay X for Alonso, whether the Reds have one 1b or 100 queued up. They know the Reds can easily park Alonso at AAA next season. There's no urgency to trade him.

I agree that it's silly to hang on to Alonso as insurance in case Votto leaves, unless Walt feels that Votto is definitely gone after next year. I think Walt is just being honest. I agree that it's questionable whether the Reds will be able to sign Votto long term or not.

I think there's always going to be someone that will pay a little more than they ordinarily would if they want someone bad enough. Votto's situation won't change what clubs value Alonso at, certainly, but if the other club can maintain leverage and not having their hand forced, they can reasonably ask for more from clubs and perhaps get it.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 03:39 PM
Just move Alonso to 1st and Votto to LF already ;)

RedsManRick
12-06-2010, 03:47 PM
Once Votto signs, Alonso's value tanks -- but once Alonso is dealt, Votto's asking price probably increases.

Good point. And WJ definitely has a history of keeping his options open.

I saw on Twitter earlier a good quote from Dusty re: Votto. Something along the lines of "Votto likes it here, he's just not ready to say he wants to be here forever".

Regarding Alonso, even with Votto not signed long term, 3 years of control is a long time. Holding up Alonso as a high valued insurance policy probably doesn't hold too much sway and still leaves him worth less to the Reds than to a team that would have him in the majors tomorrow. Finding a pair of teams who value him as a starter in the majors to bid against each other is probably the best way to get full value.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 04:01 PM
When asked whether his reception to inquiries about Yonder Alonso are affected by Votto's status...

"I think right now, Yonder is a guy that still figures in the organization," Jocketty said. "It gives us protection. He believes that he's working this winter to come in and compete for a spot on the bench next year to play some first and left field and be a left-handed hitter off the bench."

from Mark Sheldon http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/12/quick_winter_meetings_update.html

Caveat Emperor
12-06-2010, 04:12 PM
I think the Reds will keep Alonso this year and if he does well they'll trade Votto next off season.

I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

pedro
12-06-2010, 04:18 PM
I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

I agree. I like Votto a lot but with what he'll likely command salary wise I think it just might be too big a risk with the Reds assumed payroll limitations. Votto with 2 years left pre-free agency would likely bring back a hefty return. Not sure the Reds could afford to turn that down should the right offer come along.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 04:24 PM
Wouldn't Votto, being the shrewd guy he is, see the value in showing he can play LF? Arrr.

Caveat Emperor
12-06-2010, 04:27 PM
Wouldn't Votto, being the shrewd guy he is, see the value in showing he can play LF? Arrr.

He's the reigning NL MVP, and teams have no hang-ups about handing over $100+ million dollar contracts to first basemen who put up MVP numbers (paging Mr. Pujols and Mr. Howard).

He doesn't need to do a thing to increase his value, right now, other than continue hit the baseball hard.

Ghosts of 1990
12-06-2010, 04:29 PM
I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

Look for the Bruce deal to be around 6 years and not four. Wouldn't make a lot of sense for them to sign him to a 4 year deal since he is already under their control for that many more years.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 04:29 PM
He's the reigning NL MVP, and teams have no hang-ups about handing over $100+ million dollar contracts to first basemen who put up MVP numbers (paging Mr. Pujols and Mr. Howard).

He doesn't need to do a thing to increase his value, right now, other than continue hit the baseball hard.

Very True.

mth123
12-06-2010, 04:31 PM
I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

I get the logic, but when, in this scenario, do the Reds take a shot at actually winning the whole sha-bang. Sounds like a way to ensure a low 80s win total for several years and to avoid another string of losing seasons for several years, but they need to go all in to become a 95 win team that is considered a serious WS threat IMO.

Orenda
12-06-2010, 04:34 PM
Wouldn't Votto, being the shrewd guy he is, see the value in showing he can play LF? Arrr.

i can't tell if your being sarcastic or not but I would agree with that if he could be at least an average lf defensively. There are a lot of big name 1 sackers out there, many of whom occupy spots on possible big market destinations already. The list of left fielders who can post the type of offensive numbers Votto is capable of is a much shorter list.

Although I wonder which position increases risk of injury more 1b or lf...my guess would be left field.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 04:38 PM
i can't tell if your being sarcastic or not but I would agree with that if he could be at least an average lf defensively. There are a lot of big name 1 sackers out there, many of whom occupy spots on possible big market destinations already. The list of left fielders who can post the type of offensive numbers Votto is capable of is a much shorter list.

Although I wonder which position increases risk of injury more 1b or lf...my guess would be left field.

I'm serious about it. I wish he was willing to move to LF, but I think he has no reason to try if he's comfortable at first. His value could increase like you say, and like I originally thought, but it's hard to see his value much higher these days anyway. If I were Votto, I'd try LF simply because you're one step further from the door when you're older. Adam Dunn never wanted to be a 1b because, boom, now he's a 1b/DH the very next year. He'll likely struggle to get his next deal beyond 1 year 4million. Just my take on it.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 04:39 PM
Interesting that Walt is at least paying lip service to Alonso in LF next year, ostensibly platooning with Gomes. I would love to see that come true!

mth123
12-06-2010, 04:52 PM
.289/.386/.477

.291/.368/.458

First line is Votto's minor league career slash line.

Second is Alonso's minor league career slash line.

Alonso's includes a serious hand injury for most of it.

Even their AAA numbers are similar.

My only point is that shouldn't act like we know that Alonso will be a generic, easy to find 1B. Everyone said the same thing about Votto when he was coming up. Votto too was considered the Reds most tradable asset.

But a lot of Minor League 1B put up strong numbers. For every one that ends up like Votto, about a dozen become Sean Casey and about 1000 become Brad Eldred. The whole point is that assuming Alonso is going to become any more than run of the mill as 1B go is a longshot assumption. Why pass on dealing him for a chance to put the team over the top? Run of the Mill 1B are obtainable every year. IF he hits the Votto Lotto and becomes an MVP caliber guy so be it.

...Or, they could hang onto him and those gaudy (but really not so gaudy at this point) numbers could qualify him as the next Roberto Petagine. If the Reds were far away from winning or it was a harder to acquire position the math changes, but no real need to hold onto a 1B prospect who is far from a sure thing as far as becoming elite goes if dealing him gets the Reds closer to the big prize.

mdccclxix
12-06-2010, 05:05 PM
But a lot of Minor League 1B put up strong numbers. For every one that ends up like Votto, about a dozen become Sean Casey and about 1000 become Brad Eldred. The whole point is that assuming Alonso is going to become any more than run of the mill as 1B go is a longshot assumption. Why pass on dealing him for a chance to put the team over the top? Run of the Mill 1B are obtainable every year. IF he hits the Votto Lotto and becomes an MVP caliber guy so be it.

...Or, they could hang onto him and those gaudy (but really not so gaudy at this point) numbers could qualify him as the next Roberto Petagine. If the Reds were far away from winning or it was a harder to acquire position the math changes, but no real need to hold onto a 1B prospect who is far from a sure thing as far as becoming elite goes if dealing him gets the Reds closer to the big prize.

I agree, if it's for a clear upgrade, why not trade him now. But as I see it, we may be in a position with an Alonso / Gomes platoon where LF is .300 / .370 / .475 type of slash. It would be hard to replace that with Alonso alone, although there is much depth elsewhere to be dealt from as well. I may like to see this play out in LF, although something tells me Walt is paying lip service to the idea. They went to great lengths NOT to give Alonso a start in LF last year.

IslandRed
12-06-2010, 05:26 PM
I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

I don't think shipping off Votto for prospects is ever going to be something Jocketty "wants." It's not his style. More likely that #3 reads "Votto re-signs, since the Reds figure they'll be able to afford him after winning the 2011 World Series."

mth123
12-06-2010, 05:47 PM
I agree, if it's for a clear upgrade, why not trade him now. But as I see it, we may be in a position with an Alonso / Gomes platoon where LF is .300 / .370 / .475 type of slash. It would be hard to replace that with Alonso alone, although there is much depth elsewhere to be dealt from as well. I may like to see this play out in LF, although something tells me Walt is paying lip service to the idea. They went to great lengths NOT to give Alonso a start in LF last year.

I think you are more likely to see a statue of Adam Dunn, a nearly crippled Ken Griffey Jr or Ed Roush's corpse playing LF than Alonso. The Reds made it pretty clear last season that he's not really an option (Francisco either for that matter).

If there was any chance that Alonso and Votto could be on the field at the same time, I'd be totally against dealing him and ready to hand him a starting spot. Given the message that the Reds sent last year, the team should be looking to deal Alonso.

Benihana
12-06-2010, 07:04 PM
I get the logic, but when, in this scenario, do the Reds take a shot at actually winning the whole sha-bang. Sounds like a way to ensure a low 80s win total for several years and to avoid another string of losing seasons for several years, but they need to go all in to become a 95 win team that is considered a serious WS threat IMO.

Which, IMO, is exactly why Yonder Alonso is NOT an insurance policy for Joey Votto. I think if the Reds ever give consideration to dealing Votto, it is after the 2012 season, not 2011. They have at least a 2 year window to compete now.

It is a complete waste of resources to have Yonder waiting around until then (2013 season), and therefore he should be traded in the next few months. They need to substantially upgrade at least one of LF, SS, and/or SP#1 if they are going to seriously contend for a World Series title next season. Otherwise, we are looking at another good but not great team, unless literally everything goes right.

pedro
12-06-2010, 07:20 PM
I'm not convinced that Alonso has all that much trade value right now. A big year at AAA could change that.

Benihana
12-06-2010, 08:07 PM
I'm not convinced that Alonso has all that much trade value right now. A big year at AAA could change that.

That's fine. My point is that either way, he should be traded- whether it's now or 6 months from now (after he mashes in AAA). If you keep him around until/if Votto leaves town 2+ years from now, you are wasting valuable resources at a time when you can least afford to (ie your window to compete).

MikeS21
12-06-2010, 08:44 PM
The thing about Alonso is that you really don't know what you have. Will he turn out to be Sean Casey, or a Paul Konerko with a little higher OBP? The wrist injury probably won't be 100% until next year. Right now, its too soon to tell.

Someone mentioned an intriguing idea earlier: Grandal. If Mes is for real, Grandal could be looking at a position change. 1B may be an option.

pedro
12-06-2010, 08:54 PM
That's fine. My point is that either way, he should be traded- whether it's now or 6 months from now (after he mashes in AAA). If you keep him around until/if Votto leaves town 2+ years from now, you are wasting valuable resources at a time when you can least afford to (ie your window to compete).

I wouldn't hold onto Alonso more than a year if he doesn't end up replacing Votto or playing LF.

kpresidente
12-06-2010, 09:16 PM
I think WJ has the right approach. Votto might have more trade value than any player in baseball, while trading Alonso is selling low. If he has a strong year in AAA, and at the same time it becomes evident that Votto's looking for big money, I'd have no problem moving Votto as soon as next season. The fact that he'd have a couple years left before FA will only up his trade-value even more, because it means more teams could be in on the sweepstakes. And the haul you could get for him, combined with the other young talent we have, could assure that we're in the hunt for the next 6-7 years.

corkedbat
12-07-2010, 12:00 AM
Votto has 3 years before he reaches free agency. That's a lifetime in terms of baseball contracts, etc. To hold onto Alonso now because of what might happen 3 years down the road is extremely foolish. I'm guessing, like others, that this is to drum up a market for Alonso more than anything.

Especially considering the position is 1B which should be fairly easy to fill. You hold onto Votto until the last possible moment. The only reason to hold onto Alonso is if you are considering a deal for Votto in the next year.

This franchise's draft and foreign player acquisiton needs to put a very solid emphasis on corner power bats. It is an essential area that this franchise has neglected for way too long.

TheNext44
12-07-2010, 02:06 PM
1B might be an easy position to fill, but an MVP winning 1.000+ OPS hitter is not.

kpresidente
12-07-2010, 02:30 PM
Walt's in a fascinating game here where Alonso is his best chip against Votto (if they don't work out a deal with Votto, they can go year-to-year and then ship him someplace next year and install Alonso at first), but Votto is also the best chip Walt has against other team's for Alonso (as long as a deal ISN'T in place, Alonso still has perceived value to the club).

Once Votto signs, Alonso's value tanks -- but once Alonso is dealt, Votto's asking price probably increases.

That only works if you've got one bidder. If multiple teams are interested, it won't matter that much how desperate the Reds are to make a move, they're bidding against each other.