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TRF
12-06-2010, 12:14 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5890574

He's a near ace switching leagues. If he can stay healthy, the Brewers just added a strong piece to their rotation.

RedsManRick
12-06-2010, 12:23 PM
Very good move by the Brewers. Marcum is a stud and while Lawrie has big upside, there are questions about his commitment to being as good as he can be. Brewers actually drafted him in part b/c he said he'd give catching a go - then changed his mind when he showed up at camp.

OnBaseMachine
12-06-2010, 12:28 PM
Great trade by the Brewers. Marcum is a very solid pitcher and the change in leagues should benefit him.

OldXOhio
12-06-2010, 12:41 PM
Perhaps I misread the quote, but didn't the TOR brass say they believe the jays are a Zach Grienke away from catching the Red Sox? And now they trade away Marcum?

oneupper
12-06-2010, 12:42 PM
Shame we didn't have another Encarnación to send their way.l

Homer Bailey
12-06-2010, 12:43 PM
Not that familiar with Marcum, but is Cueto (excluding age) a fair comparison to him, numbers wise?

Plus Plus
12-06-2010, 12:45 PM
Marcum is a bit better and significantly more injury prone than Cueto.

Numbers-wise, they are fairly similar.

Ghosts of 1990
12-06-2010, 01:09 PM
I don't think Marcum has any fit in Cincinnati, but it's another really quality pitcher that we're going to be facing now a few more times a year. He has lights out stuff. Brewers got better with this acquisition.

Homer Bailey
12-06-2010, 01:14 PM
I don't think Marcum has any fit in Cincinnati, but it's another really quality pitcher that we're going to be facing now a few more times a year. He has lights out stuff. Brewers got better with this acquisition.

Doesn't he top out in the high 80's?

His K/rate doesn't suggest "lights out stuff"

OnBaseMachine
12-06-2010, 01:17 PM
Marcum has a really nasty changeup and cutter that are death on left-handed hitters. In 2010, Marcum held lefties to a .530 OPS in 386 atbats while right-handed hitters had an .861 OPS in 361 atbats against him. He's so tough on lefties, at times, switch-hitters were batting RH against him.

jojo
12-06-2010, 01:31 PM
Doesn't he top out in the high 80's?

His K/rate doesn't suggest "lights out stuff"

He's had Tommy John surgery though so he can shoot lightning bolts outta his booty.

Concerning his stuff, he's got above average peripherals (make 'em miss/command) and his repertoire allows him to get both lefties and righties out though righties get more dingers.

Johnny Footstool
12-06-2010, 02:33 PM
Marcum is a quality pitcher -- a very strong #3, or a decent #2. Good K/BB, especially last season (3.84). Weird splits last year - on the road, he allowed more HR (15) than BB (14).

Sea Ray
12-06-2010, 02:38 PM
Since when are Opening Day starters only worth one AA player? I'd like to get in on that. I thought pitching was an expensive commodity.

Mario-Rijo
12-06-2010, 02:42 PM
It's pretty clear the division is trying to close the gap between the Reds and them, trying to match up better against them. Marcum vs. LHH and the Cards got a guy who is pretty tough on LHH's as well with Tallet who has given up just the one single in 7 tries vs. Votto and Bruce with 3 K's (all vs. Votto). Not that they worry me but it would be nice to have that big RH thumper between the 2 of these guys.

TRF
12-06-2010, 02:43 PM
The Jays are somewhat like the Reds, lots of young SP's and depth at AAA. How they are different? 18 games against the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.

mth123
12-06-2010, 02:48 PM
The Brewers are a threat now IMO.

Lucroy, Fielder, Weeks, Escobar, McGeehee, Braun, Cain and Hart is as solid a position player group as there is in the NL Central. Dickerson, Gomez, Gamel and Kottaras are a solid bench. Now Gallardo, Marcum and Wolf make a pretty nice top three. A couple relievers and a back end starter and they could be very solid all around and it shouldn't cost too much to do it.

This isn't a blockbuster that will get much press, but its a fine example of sending off a prospect to sure up a weakness w/o subtracting from the big league team. Lawrie may go on to be a good player, but IMO so what? This deal has the most impact of any move in the NL Central so far.

Homer Bailey
12-06-2010, 02:49 PM
The Brewers are a threat now IMO.

Lucroy, Fielder, Weeks, Escobar, McGeehee, Braun, Cain and Hart is as solid a position player group as there is in the NL Central. Dickerson, Gomez, Gamel and Kottaras are a solid bench. Now Gallardo, Marcum and Wolf make a pretty nice top three. A couple relievers and a back end starter and they could be very solid all around and it shouldn't cost too much to do it.

This isn't a blockbuster that will get much press, but its a fine example of sending off a prospect to sure up a weakness w/o subtracting from the big league team. Lawrie may go on to be a good player, but IMO so what? This deal has the most impact of any move in the NL Central so far.

It's a good move for the Brewers, but I still think they need plenty more pitching as you indicated. Marcum is a start, but I'm not quite ready to call them contenders yet.

They do have the bats to compete, but pitching and defense wise, not so much IMO.

mth123
12-06-2010, 02:52 PM
It's a good move for the Brewers, but I still think they need plenty more pitching as you indicated. Marcum is a start, but I'm not quite ready to call them contenders yet.

They do have the bats to compete, but pitching and defense wise, not so much IMO.

They have their top three. They can fill in around them fairly easily IMO.

camisadelgolf
12-06-2010, 03:23 PM
If the Brewers can find a way to keep Fielder and Weeks around, they're built for the next few years as opposed to just 2011. Granted, a lot of things have to go right for the Astros to make them a contender, but the only real non-contender in my eyes is the Pirates.

fearofpopvol1
12-06-2010, 04:17 PM
If the Brewers can find a way to keep Fielder and Weeks around, they're built for the next few years as opposed to just 2011.

Good luck with Fielder. There is some bad blood there. At this juncture, it would take a monster contract to keep him and I can't see the Brewers paying it. The Brewers need more pitching as well, but Marcum is a big step in the right direction.

Joseph
12-06-2010, 04:47 PM
Prince Fielder seems like he has a major attitude problem. He can't get along with his dad, and now the Brewers. How 'babied' does he need to be? Granted I know NONE of the specifics, but thats just the perception I have of him based on things floating around.

Now, Marcum does help them Brewers alot, they might have the best line up in the division even, but unless they do something with their whole staff, especially the rotation, I don't think they are a serious contender.

mth123
12-06-2010, 05:06 PM
Prince Fielder seems like he has a major attitude problem. He can't get along with his dad, and now the Brewers. How 'babied' does he need to be? Granted I know NONE of the specifics, but thats just the perception I have of him based on things floating around.

Now, Marcum does help them Brewers alot, they might have the best line up in the division even, but unless they do something with their whole staff, especially the rotation, I don't think they are a serious contender.

I wouldn't be so sure. With Chapman probably in the pen, unless Bailey becomes what he was thought to be back in his to prospect days, the Reds don't really have a starter as good as Gallardo or Marcum. Wolf can give innings in the middle of the rotation. A few back end guys to sort through and maybe hit on a rehab guy (Jeff Francis is my pick as most likely to come back big) and they will be pretty darned tough. IMO they are already a force to deal with. The things they need aren't so hard to get. They seem to be pretty set in the top of the rotation, the middle of the order and up the middle defensively. Even if they deal Fielder (and really fortify the arms in the process), the middle of the order with Braun, McGeehee and Hart is still pretty good and Matt Gamel might slide in at 1B join them as big bat for the line-up (or a free agent like Adam Laroche might step in and provide solid production). With those top three arms and Braun the MVP caliber bat in the fold (and Rickie Weeks vastly under rated), they can afford to deal Fielder if they think they need to. He plays the position where they can backfill with some decent production fairly easily.

OnBaseMachine
12-07-2010, 05:14 PM
From Phil Rogers:

Look out for the #Brewers. They're rekindling Matt Garza talks with Rays. Possible deal could include supposedly "untouchable'' Matt Cain.

http://twitter.com/ChiTribRogers

If the Brewers acquire Garza to go along with Gallardo and Marcum, they become serious threats to win the NL Central, IMO.

BTW, he means Lorenzo Cain, not Matt Cain.

PuffyPig
12-07-2010, 06:44 PM
They have their top three. They can fill in around them fairly easily IMO.

They were 14 out of 16 teams in the NL in team ERA.

Marcum helps but you need 12-15 pitchers to win over the course of a season.

Joseph
12-07-2010, 07:31 PM
I wouldn't be so sure. With Chapman probably in the pen, unless Bailey becomes what he was thought to be back in his to prospect days, the Reds don't really have a starter as good as Gallardo or Marcum. Wolf can give innings in the middle of the rotation. A few back end guys to sort through and maybe hit on a rehab guy (Jeff Francis is my pick as most likely to come back big) and they will be pretty darned tough. IMO they are already a force to deal with. The things they need aren't so hard to get. They seem to be pretty set in the top of the rotation, the middle of the order and up the middle defensively. Even if they deal Fielder (and really fortify the arms in the process), the middle of the order with Braun, McGeehee and Hart is still pretty good and Matt Gamel might slide in at 1B join them as big bat for the line-up (or a free agent like Adam Laroche might step in and provide solid production). With those top three arms and Braun the MVP caliber bat in the fold (and Rickie Weeks vastly under rated), they can afford to deal Fielder if they think they need to. He plays the position where they can backfill with some decent production fairly easily.

Gallardo is a very good pitcher, Marcum is fairly solid, but two pitchers does not a rotation make. We had a few years of Arroyo and Harang and we didn't have much of a staff.

mth123
12-07-2010, 10:31 PM
Gallardo is a very good pitcher, Marcum is fairly solid, but two pitchers does not a rotation make. We had a few years of Arroyo and Harang and we didn't have much of a staff.

Arroyo and Harang weren't as good as Gallardo or Marcum, they were both about equal to the third guy in the Brewers rotation. The point is they don't need to sell the farm or break the bank for TOR guys cause they already have them. They can pick up a few solid bargains to sort through and fill in the back end.

Homer Bailey
12-07-2010, 11:12 PM
They were 14 out of 16 teams in the NL in team ERA.

Marcum helps but you need 12-15 pitchers to win over the course of a season.

I'm with Puffy.

PuffyPig
12-08-2010, 08:10 AM
Arroyo and Harang weren't as good as Gallardo or Marcum, they were both about equal to the third guy in the Brewers rotation. The point is they don't need to sell the farm or break the bank for TOR guys cause they already have them. They can pick up a few solid bargains to sort through and fill in the back end.

That third guy is Wolf who had a 95 ERA+ last year, and averaged 110 over the last two years, Gallardo has been 106 over the last 2 years, Marcum 114 last year.

Harang averaged 124 from 2006-2007, Arroyo was 126.

During their "run", Harang and Arroyo were better than Gallardo and Marcum are likely to be, and certainly better than Wolf.

I think many forget how very good Harang was during this period, he was one of the best pitchers in the NL.

Marcum has averaged 168 innings in his three full seasons as a starter, reaching a high of 195 last year. He's certainly not a TOR starter at this stage of his career.

Those TOR starters anchored that 14th place ERA last year. Query why the Brewers didn't simply "fill in" the back end of their rotation last year? Actually they did, with Bush, Narveson and Parra who were in the low 80 range of ERA+.

Ask the Cards how a 3 man rotation of very good pitchers worked for them last year.

TRF
12-08-2010, 09:14 AM
They also have what appears to be a solid closer, and the makings of a decent pen. It's certainly a step in the right direction.

camisadelgolf
12-08-2010, 09:47 AM
They were 14 out of 16 teams in the NL in team ERA.

Marcum helps but you need 12-15 pitchers to win over the course of a season.
That's true, but with the offense they have, they need less help than nearly all the other teams in the league. If they can get their pitching staff from 14th in the league to somewhere in the middle of the pack, they could win the division.

PuffyPig
12-08-2010, 12:48 PM
That's true, but with the offense they have, they need less help than nearly all the other teams in the league. If they can get their pitching staff from 14th in the league to somewhere in the middle of the pack, they could win the division.


Pretty much everyone can win the division.

Fielder could easily be gone before the season starts.

Their defense is very poor.

And as good as their offense was, we still outscored them (as we did everyone).

camisadelgolf
12-08-2010, 01:22 PM
Pretty much everyone can win the division.

Fielder could easily be gone before the season starts.

Their defense is very poor.

And as good as their offense was, we still outscored them (as we did everyone).
All I'm saying is that they have a legitimate chance. Even though the Reds are retaining all the important cogs of their division-winning team of 2010, it's very far from a sure thing that they'll be better than the Brewers. Heck, if Votto gets injured for an extended period of time, you could argue that the Reds won't have much of a chance at all.

PuffyPig
12-08-2010, 02:05 PM
All I'm saying is that they have a legitimate chance. Even though the Reds are retaining all the important cogs of their division-winning team of 2010, it's very far from a sure thing that they'll be better than the Brewers. Heck, if Votto gets injured for an extended period of time, you could argue that the Reds won't have much of a chance at all.

Or if Pujols gets injured, or Fielder.......

All teams in the Central have a similiar problem.

camisadelgolf
12-08-2010, 02:07 PM
Or if Pujols gets injured, or Fielder.......

All teams in the Central have a similiar problem.
. . . which proves my point even more. :cool:

mth123
12-08-2010, 09:02 PM
Those TOR starters anchored that 14th place ERA last year. Query why the Brewers didn't simply "fill in" the back end of their rotation last year? Actually they did, with Bush, Narveson and Parra who were in the low 80 range of ERA+.

No they didn't. Marcum was on the Jays last year. The Brewers just replaced their worst ham & egger with a guy who is likely to be better than anyone on the Reds staff. Last year they were filling in the front of the rotation.

Johnny Footstool
12-08-2010, 09:34 PM
That's true, but with the offense they have, they need less help than nearly all the other teams in the league. If they can get their pitching staff from 14th in the league to somewhere in the middle of the pack, they could win the division.

Yes, if Griffey stays healthy, and if Dunn and Kearns continue to develop, the 2004 Reds only need a slight improvement in pitching to contend for the division title.

Wait...is that who we're talking about? I must have slipped into a time warp for a second.:)

PuffyPig
12-08-2010, 09:42 PM
No they didn't. Marcum was on the Jays last year. The Brewers just replaced their worst ham & egger with a guy who is likely to be better than anyone on the Reds staff. Last year they were filling in the front of the rotation.

Marcum is a good pitcher, but you seriously overrate him. He hasn't pitched 200 innings yet in the majors and he is 29 years old.

mth123
12-08-2010, 09:50 PM
Marcum is a good pitcher, but you seriously overrate him. He hasn't pitched 200 innings yet in the majors and he is 29 years old.

3.64 ERA in 195 IP in his first year back from a year off with injuries while pitching in a division with three super teams and facing a DH every night. In the NL Central with more distance from his lay-off, you can shave a half a run (if not more) IMO.

The Reds won't have a starter with an ERA below 3.50.

PuffyPig
12-08-2010, 10:16 PM
The Reds won't have a starter with an ERA below 3.50.

Whether that is true or not, it doesn't make Marcum or the Brewers pitching generally any better.

It's always risky predicting that a 29 year old pitcher is about to have (by far) his best year ever.

Especially when he's going to a team which allowed a .317 BABIP last year (2nd worst in the majors) vs. a team which allowed only a .301 BABIP. Marcum allowed a .289 last year, and that should rise considerably.

jojo
12-09-2010, 06:58 AM
UZR ranked the Brewers and Bluejays almost identically last season and basically thought both clubs were neutral overall defensively.