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klw
12-10-2010, 01:50 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/reds-have-preliminary-extension-talks-with-cueto.html

Apparently talks have begun with Cueto


The Reds have locked up two players and discussed a potential extension with a third, but GM Walt Jocketty isn't stopping there. He has had preliminary discussions with Johnny Cueto's representatives about a long-term deal, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/12/10/9732/

The Reds also had preliminary discussions with Johnny Cueto on a longterm deal. Cueto, like Votto and Bruce, is eligible for arbitration.

reds44
12-10-2010, 01:50 PM
Where is all this money coming from?

PuffyPig
12-10-2010, 01:53 PM
Where is all this money coming from?

It's doesn't cost more to extend longer contracts, it should save money, though can be risky.

Oxilon
12-10-2010, 02:06 PM
Where is all this money coming from?

Who cares? Keep it coming. Lol

Ghosts of 1990
12-10-2010, 02:11 PM
I like it. This is similar to what those mid-90's Indians did with their parts. Except they didn't have nearly this much pitching. Times are good right now, Reds fans.

Benihana
12-10-2010, 02:11 PM
:clap:

Bruce and Cueto are the best two people to be extending at this point IMO, given their cost, potential, risk, and replacability.

Strikes Out Looking
12-10-2010, 02:12 PM
I have to say it. How in the world will Chris Carpenter explain this to his son?

Caveat Emperor
12-10-2010, 02:21 PM
Where is all this money coming from?

Cueto and Bruce are both arb-eligible -- I'm guessing the team included this into their thinking when forming the 2011 payroll and left significant "wiggle" space for all arb-eligible players. These long-term deals are really nothing more than cementing a number that's already been budgeted for in 2011 and writing the numbers into stone for 2012 and beyond.

And, for the record, I'm 100% against going long-term with Cueto. As happy and thrilled as I am with the Bruce deal, I'd be that disappointed with doing the same thing for Cueto. He's my #1 target to move this off-season to clear out the logjam in the rotation.

MartyFan
12-10-2010, 02:23 PM
I have to say it. How in the world will Chris Carpenter explain this to his son?

That still doesn't get old too me...LOVE IT! Spit coffee out of my nose when I read it because it made me laugh.

:D

RedsManRick
12-10-2010, 02:23 PM
Where is all this money coming from?

In most cases it's saving money in the short term. The amount of money to be paid to those players isn't increasing via these deals. All that's changing is that the Reds are committing to a specific value now rather than waiting until the offseason before hand.

Cost certainty has a good deal of value to a team on a tight budget and barring significant under-performance, increases the plaeyrs' trade value.

gonelong
12-10-2010, 02:30 PM
He's my #1 target to move this off-season to clear out the logjam in the rotation.

IMO there is not such thing as a MLB having a logjam in the rotation. The Reds success last season can be in great part to having a 6th, 7th, and 8th guy to pull up into the rotation for 6-10 starts and not be putting up a 6.50 ERA. Keep 'em all IMO. If you don't make the cut then you can work a bit in AAA or be a long guy in the bullpen. When the inevitable injuries hit, you have guys to plug in.

GL

Caveat Emperor
12-10-2010, 02:42 PM
IMO there is not such thing as a MLB having a logjam in the rotation.

You can never have too much pitching, but it strikes me as foolhardy to keep 6 legitimate starters (plus two extremely good "replacement-level" options in AAA: LeCure and Maloney) when your starting LF is Jonny Gomes and starting SS is Paul Janish.

kaldaniels
12-10-2010, 02:59 PM
Cueto has produced more than any other of the young arms and it's not even close. Think long and hard before showing him the door.

REDblooded
12-10-2010, 03:02 PM
Where is all this money coming from?

Our one home playoff game?...

OnBaseMachine
12-10-2010, 03:17 PM
I'm definitely in favor of extending Cueto. And I may be the only one who feels this way, but I'm in favor of extending Volquez too.

Benihana
12-10-2010, 03:31 PM
You can never have too much pitching, but it strikes me as foolhardy to keep 6 legitimate starters (plus two extremely good "replacement-level" options in AAA: LeCure and Maloney) when your starting LF is Jonny Gomes and starting SS is Paul Janish.

Maybe, but Cueto would be the last one I'd trade.

Trade Leake and one of the CFs (Heisey, Sappelt, LaMarre) plus another prospect for Greinke or Upton. The Royals and D'backs would probably be more interested in Leake or Wood than Cueto anyway given the cost and their timeline to contention. Or you could trade Alonso and some change for BJ Upton. The Rays are letting all their veterans go while amassing draft picks and digging in for another strip down 4-year rebuild plan.

Extend Cueto. Add cost certainty while locking up the best young pitcher the Reds have produced in 30 years.

Griffey012
12-10-2010, 03:46 PM
I'm definitely in favor of extending Cueto. And I may be the only one who feels this way, but I'm in favor of extending Volquez too.

I would be in favor of that too, Volquez will never again be able to be signed for so cheap.

Mario-Rijo
12-10-2010, 03:51 PM
Not sure I'd sign Cueto long term. The kids lack of conditioning scares me a bit along with other smaller concerns. If it's a really, really friendly 3 year deal fine if not I think I pass.

dougdirt
12-10-2010, 03:57 PM
Where is all this money coming from?

What money? The Reds have likely saved money for 2011 by doing these deals and even more likely saved additional money in 2012 on forward.

TRF
12-10-2010, 03:58 PM
I would be in favor of that too, Volquez will never again be able to be signed for so cheap.

I'm starting to think Volquez will have a 5.50+ ERA next year similar to Liriano his second season after TJ. If he shows some positive trndes in the latter half of 2011, then snap him up.

reds44
12-10-2010, 04:42 PM
Wow people really want to deal Cueto? He's the last of the pitchers I'd be thinking about dealing.

OnBaseMachine
12-10-2010, 05:33 PM
Not sure I'd sign Cueto long term. The kids lack of conditioning scares me.

First time I've ever heard anything about that.

1990REDS
12-10-2010, 05:45 PM
Not sure I'd sign Cueto long term. The kids lack of conditioning scares me a bit along with other smaller concerns. If it's a really, really friendly 3 year deal fine if not I think I pass.


I could be wrong, but if I remember correctly didnt Chris Welsh always seem to make a comment about Cueto alway running the stairs at GABP? I remember this because it seemed like he brought it up everytime he pitched.

PuffyPig
12-10-2010, 05:52 PM
I could be wrong, but if I remember correctly didnt Chris Welsh always seem to make a comment about Cueto alway running the stairs at GABP? I remember this because it seemed like he brought it up everytime he pitched.

Players lacking conditioning aren't usually seen "running the stairs", unless they are chasing down a hot dog vendor.

Maybe you haven't done it before, but running the stairs is what fit people do.

1990REDS
12-10-2010, 06:01 PM
Players lacking conditioning aren't usually seen "running the stairs", unless they are chasing down a hot dog vendor.

Maybe you haven't done it before, but running the stairs is what fit people do.

Like I said, I could be wrong. For some reason it just sticks out in my mind that Welsh would always comment about it when he pitched. Maybe it was someone else.

lollipopcurve
12-10-2010, 06:12 PM
For some reason it just sticks out in my mind that Welsh would always comment about it when he pitched.

You're correct. Welsh stated over and over that last year Cueto was approaching the game differently -- and conditioning (yes, running the stairs being his favorite example) was a big piece of it.

Cueto's a short, stocky guy with a barrel chest. It doesn't mean he's soft or carrying much added weight.

corkedbat
12-10-2010, 06:16 PM
I have to say it. How in the world will Chris Carpenter explain this to his son?

"Son look, when you get right down to it, life's a crap sandwich and every day's another bite."

Caveat Emperor
12-10-2010, 06:59 PM
Wow people really want to deal Cueto? He's the last of the pitchers I'd be thinking about dealing.

Declining K rate, escalating cost, and the less-than-storied history of pitchers under 6' tall aging well would all scare me from buying Cueto long-term.

Superdude
12-10-2010, 07:11 PM
Declining K rate, escalating cost, and the less-than-storied history of pitchers under 6' tall aging well would all scare me from buying Cueto long-term.

Agree with this. I could see extending Cueto a year or two past free agency, but I'd be pretty leery about a deal beyond that. Same could be said for most pitchers, but Cueto seems to present a few extra risks that you noted.

JaxRed
12-10-2010, 07:25 PM
I'd be more than happy to go year to year with him unless it's a great deal. 3 years 5m per would be about the most I'd go.

edabbs44
12-10-2010, 11:21 PM
I'm starting to think Volquez will have a 5.50+ ERA next year similar to Liriano his second season after TJ. If he shows some positive trndes in the latter half of 2011, then snap him up.

If I could get value for Volquez, he'd be the first guy I would trade.

OnBaseMachine
12-10-2010, 11:28 PM
I'm starting to think Volquez will have a 5.50+ ERA next year similar to Liriano his second season after TJ. If he shows some positive trndes in the latter half of 2011, then snap him up.

I disagree. He returned early from Tommy John Surgery this year and still posted a respectable 4.31 ERA in 62.2 innings with a 9.6 K/9. I thought he looked terrific, both mechanically and performance wise, after returning from his brief stint in the minors in early September. I think he's going to have a productive 2011 season - something like 185 innings with an ERA around 3.50 and 200+ K's. I really hope the Reds hang on to him because I think he's got a very good future ahead of him.

Cedric
12-10-2010, 11:44 PM
I have to think that some GM's would be overvaluing Cueto right now. I would love to get good value for him at this point before he declines further and makes more.

Volquez is the last guy in the rotation I would trade. Chapman and Volquez have the highest ceilings by far in the rotation, IMO. Getting rid of Volquez when he is at his lowest value makes no sense to me.

OnBaseMachine
12-11-2010, 12:26 AM
I have to think that some GM's would be overvaluing Cueto right now. I would love to get good value for him at this point before he declines further and makes more.


Declines further? Cueto has improved in each of his three big league seasons.

ERA+
2008: 92
2009: 95
2010: 110

HR/9
2008: 1.5
2009: 1.3
2010: 0.9

BB/9
2008: 3.5
2009: 3.2
2010: 2.7

K/9
2008: 8.2
2009: 6.9
2010: 6.7

He's made 30+ starts in all three seasons. The only thing that has declined is his K/9 but that's because he's moved away from trying to strike everyone out. His stuff is still as good as before as evidenced by his above average SwStr%. I'm not sure where all this talk about Cueto declining is coming from.

TRF
12-11-2010, 01:18 AM
I disagree. He returned early from Tommy John Surgery this year and still posted a respectable 4.31 ERA in 62.2 innings with a 9.6 K/9. I thought he looked terrific, both mechanically and performance wise, after returning from his brief stint in the minors in early September. I think he's going to have a productive 2011 season - something like 185 innings with an ERA around 3.50 and 200+ K's. I really hope the Reds hang on to him because I think he's got a very good future ahead of him.

look at Liriano's 2008 season. comparable numbers, right down to the IP.

johngalt
12-11-2010, 01:18 AM
Where is all this money coming from?

Could be that it's coming from avoiding making moves at the winter meetings or the trade deadline or whenever just to "do something" like a lot of fans have ranted about.

bucksfan2
12-11-2010, 12:42 PM
I have to think that some GM's would be overvaluing Cueto right now. I would love to get good value for him at this point before he declines further and makes more.

Investing long term in Cueto scares the crap out of me. I don't like his frame, don't like his mental makeup, and don't think his body will hold up over the life of a long term contract.


Volquez is the last guy in the rotation I would trade. Chapman and Volquez have the highest ceilings by far in the rotation, IMO. Getting rid of Volquez when he is at his lowest value makes no sense to me.

If I could get fair value for Volquez I would trade him asap. I just don't think he projects to be all that successful long term with his current control issues. He can have great stuff one game then look like a batting tee the next. His steriod suspension also has turned me off on his character.

If I am putting players in a sliding scale of the ones I would keep to the ones I would trade it would look like this:

Chapman-Wood-Leake-Cueto-Volquez.

westofyou
12-11-2010, 12:47 PM
Investing long term in Cueto scares the crap out of me. I don't like his frame, don't like his mental makeup, and don't think his body will hold up over the life of a long term contract.


Very small pool he's trying to swim into



CAREER
1950-2009

RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS
HEIGHT <= 70
ERA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
GAMES STARTED > 100
WINNING PERCENTAGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
HEIGHT displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RSAA RSAA ERA IP GS PCT HT
1 Tom Gordon 131 0.46 2108 203 .523 5'9"
2 Ned Garver 91 0.23 2055 274 .460 5'10"
3 Murry Dickson 63 0.14 1918.2 230 .461 5'10"
4 Lee Stange 21 -.05 1217 125 .504 5'10"
5 Carl Erskine 18 0.00 1575 204 .593 5'10"
6 Scott Bankhead 12 -.05 901 110 .543 5'10"
7 Pat Jarvis 7 -.08 1283 169 .538 5'10"
8 Tom Phoebus 0 0.04 1030 149 .519 5'8"
9 Steve Stone -22 -.15 1788.1 269 .535 5'10"
10 Ricky Bones -35 -.33 1278.1 164 .434 5'10"
11 Bill Stoneman -56 -.48 1238 170 .388 5'10"

OnBaseMachine
12-11-2010, 12:49 PM
If I could get fair value for Volquez I would trade him asap. I just don't think he projects to be all that successful long term with his current control issues. He can have great stuff one game then look like a batting tee the next. His steriod suspension also has turned me off on his character.


Interesting since you are a noted Josh Hamilton supporter. :confused:

TheNext44
12-11-2010, 02:00 PM
Investing long term in Cueto scares the crap out of me. I don't like his frame, don't like his mental makeup, and don't think his body will hold up over the life of a long term contract.



If I could get fair value for Volquez I would trade him asap. I just don't think he projects to be all that successful long term with his current control issues. He can have great stuff one game then look like a batting tee the next. His steriod suspension also has turned me off on his character.

If I am putting players in a sliding scale of the ones I would keep to the ones I would trade it would look like this:

Chapman-Wood-Leake-Cueto-Volquez.

I have no problem with his mental makeup. I think he's shown a desire to learn and improve, and has made many adjustments during his young career. What exactly worries you about it?

Mario-Rijo
12-11-2010, 02:05 PM
I have no problem with his mental makeup. I think he's shown a desire to learn and improve, and has made many adjustments during his young career. What exactly worries you about it?

Not only that he isn't intimidated by anyone, so I'd have to agree here, be interesting to hear this.

Griffey012
12-11-2010, 03:01 PM
look at Liriano's 2008 season. comparable numbers, right down to the IP.

The difference is that Volquez best pitch is his changeup, where Liriano's was his filthy slider. It took him a long time after the elbow injury to get used to not being able to rely on his slider as much, and his slider was not as effective. Volquez ditched his slider and came back with a pretty good curveball, I see no reason to believe Volquez will struggle next season.

Jpup
12-11-2010, 11:33 PM
Interesting since you are a noted Josh Hamilton supporter. :confused:

Josh Hamilton doesn't have character issues. I don't believe Volquez does either.

TRF
12-11-2010, 11:48 PM
Josh Hamilton doesn't have character issues. I don't believe Volquez does either.

I'm sorry, what?

Hamilton has some serious character issues. he also has a PR machine stating he doesn't.

Eric_the_Red
12-12-2010, 09:34 AM
Everyone has character issues, us included.

bucksfan2
12-12-2010, 12:07 PM
Interesting since you are a noted Josh Hamilton supporter. :confused:

Point taken.

I do see the two as different. Hamilton on one hand was an addiction and Volquez on the other hand was performance related. Hamilton has spoken openly about the addiction while Volquez has hidden behind his "trying to get pregnant" stance.

Volquez is a live arm and has the potential to be a dominant pitcher. He probably has the best pure stuff out of any Red. But the issue I have with Volquez is when you take away his great start to the 08 season it has been a roller coaster ride with him. I am willing to trade him to a team that over-values his arm.

Griffey012
12-12-2010, 01:47 PM
Point taken.

I do see the two as different. Hamilton on one hand was an addiction and Volquez on the other hand was performance related. Hamilton has spoken openly about the addiction while Volquez has hidden behind his "trying to get pregnant" stance.

Volquez is a live arm and has the potential to be a dominant pitcher. He probably has the best pure stuff out of any Red. But the issue I have with Volquez is when you take away his great start to the 08 season it has been a roller coaster ride with him. I am willing to trade him to a team that over-values his arm.

Jocketty should be willing to trade anyone to a team that over-values the player. Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, Stubbs, Votto, anyone. The problem is it is very hard to actually get a good feel for what value Volquez really brings.

Chip R
12-12-2010, 02:02 PM
I think the Reds should sign Cueto long term - just for kicks. ;)

paintmered
12-12-2010, 02:46 PM
Interesting since you are a noted Josh Hamilton supporter. :confused:

No! We are not jumping down this rabbit hole in this thread.

Eric_the_Red
12-12-2010, 03:13 PM
I think the Reds should sign Cueto long term - just for kicks. ;)

Well, you never know, Cueto could give the Reds a leg up on the Cardinals.

TheNext44
12-12-2010, 04:28 PM
I think the Reds should sign Cueto long term - just for kicks. ;)

It would definitely spike interest in the team. ;)

wheels
12-12-2010, 05:46 PM
Cueto and Bruce are both arb-eligible -- I'm guessing the team included this into their thinking when forming the 2011 payroll and left significant "wiggle" space for all arb-eligible players. These long-term deals are really nothing more than cementing a number that's already been budgeted for in 2011 and writing the numbers into stone for 2012 and beyond.

And, for the record, I'm 100% against going long-term with Cueto. As happy and thrilled as I am with the Bruce deal, I'd be that disappointed with doing the same thing for Cueto. He's my #1 target to move this off-season to clear out the logjam in the rotation.

I agree with your position in principle, but my mind tells me that maybe the same "targets" could be accquired via a Homer Bailey - centric deal.

Then I think to myself "Cueto's more proven", and so I go agreeing with your entire sentiment all over again.

However, I don't think that Cueto's extension precludes him from being traded, and the cost certainty could actually be more enticing to other clubs.

Bah. Who knows? This is one of a myriad examples of why Baseball is so fun.

REDREAD
12-14-2010, 03:03 PM
Wow people really want to deal Cueto? He's the last of the pitchers I'd be thinking about dealing.

I agree. Cueto and Arroyo are the core of the rotation. Everyone else has question marks.
We are trying to contend. Cueto is the surest thing we've got. He's the last guy I trade. I don't care that he makes more money than the other young starters. He's getting paid more because he has produced.

As I said in another thread, right now Cueto is what we hope the other youngsters become.. No way do I trade Cueto. I'm glad that Walt agrees.

TRF
12-14-2010, 03:31 PM
I'd do a 3 year deal for Cueto. I might do 4 years. I do not give a no trade clause. I love the guy, but history says his time as an effective starter will end about the time he hits 30.

But that is 5 years away.

So if I were the GM, I might be inclined to go year to year on him, and let someone give him the big payday for the years I think he'll start to decline.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2010, 05:50 PM
I'd do a 3 year deal for Cueto. I might do 4 years. I do not give a no trade clause. I love the guy, but history says his time as an effective starter will end about the time he hits 30.

But that is 5 years away.

So if I were the GM, I might be inclined to go year to year on him, and let someone give him the big payday for the years I think he'll start to decline.

Agree completely. :thumbup:

Benihana
12-14-2010, 05:56 PM
I'd do a 3 year deal for Cueto. I might do 4 years. I do not give a no trade clause. I love the guy, but history says his time as an effective starter will end about the time he hits 30.

But that is 5 years away.

So if I were the GM, I might be inclined to go year to year on him, and let someone give him the big payday for the years I think he'll start to decline.

The more I think about it, the more I agree with this logic. See what happens in 2011. Chances are one (or more) of the starters will emerge to be a true front-of-the-line guy. Just because Cueto has been the most consistent to date doesn't mean that will be the case for the next 5 years. We already locked up the "reliable" starter when we extended Arroyo. The next guy to get locked up needs to show the ability to go head to head with one of the Phillies starters, because that is what we'll need if we're ever going to get past them.

OnBaseMachine
01-17-2011, 05:38 PM
From John Fay:


The filing date is tomorrow. Jocketty said the Reds have discussed multiyear deals with some of the players. Cueto, who stands to make about $3.5 million in 2011, is most likely to be in line for the multiyear deal.



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/01/17/jocketty-on-the-votto-deal/

I would like to see both Cueto and Volquez receive multiyear deals.

camisadelgolf
01-17-2011, 05:42 PM
How much do you think a three-year deal for Cueto would cost? $15MM?

kaldaniels
01-17-2011, 06:59 PM
How much do you think a three-year deal for Cueto would cost? $15MM?

2011 3.5 MM
2012 5 MM
2013 7 MM

Yeah 3 yr 15 MM sounds about right.

I'd wave 5 yr 30 MM at him and see if he would bite. Although not an ace, he has produced nicely over the past 3 years and I expect it to continue.

mth123
01-17-2011, 08:59 PM
I wouldn't give 5 years to Cueto. 3 years $15 million sounds about right. Most I'd commit might be an extra million for an option buy-out on a 4th year with the opton for say $10 Million.

Jpup
01-17-2011, 10:38 PM
If you could get Cueto for 5 years and 30 million, it would be a steal. I'm all for it.

TRF
01-17-2011, 11:30 PM
If you could get Cueto for 5 years and 30 million, it would be a steal. I'm all for it.

History says you shouldn't be.

REDREAD
01-18-2011, 11:20 AM
I understand the risk of giving a pitcher a multiyear deal, but if we could get him for 5 years and 30 million, I would take that risk.
Ceuto turns only 25 this year. You'd be buying out 2 free agent years at only 6 million year.. Look at what guys like Arroyo earn when we have to pay free market prices.

If you give Ceuto 5 years at 30 million, and he only gives you 4 years of production like last year, you still come out ahead.

That said, I doubt Ceuto signs a deal like that.
I would like to buy out one or two of his FA years though.

I guess some people are concerned due to Cueto's height (and maybe weight) but the guy produces. I think he's a good bet to be productive through age 30-31.

westofyou
01-18-2011, 11:21 AM
History says you shouldn't be.

Size and the realities of the what the man does for a living screams... NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

bucksfan2
01-18-2011, 11:23 AM
Size and the realities of the what the man does for a living screams... NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Size and the realities of what pitchers do for a living scream no one should ever get more than 3 years.

Cueto may be the guy you go year to year with.

westofyou
01-18-2011, 11:28 AM
Size and the realities of what pitchers do for a living scream no one should ever get more than 3 years.

Cueto may be the guy you go year to year with.

Yep, but some still do and will...see large Cuban guy on current squad.

Then I'd rather lean on the chances of the later, not the former. The bigger the players have gotten over the years the less smaller guys have had prolonged STARTING pitching careers.

TRF
01-18-2011, 02:05 PM
Cueto is a perfect guy to go year to year on, or no more than three years. A three year deal would make him 27 in the final year of that deal. He'd be expensive, but tradeable in the final year.

I wouldn't do a year more than three. If he balks at that kind of deal, go year to year and let him become someone else's expensive #3 starter.

And I am a huge Cueto fan, have been since just after he was signed.

RedsManRick
01-20-2011, 07:33 PM
According to Enrique Rojas of espndeportes.com (via mlbtraderumors.com), it's done. 4 years, $27M.

By my math, the Reds were already set to get a bargain on Cueto in arbitration and this just continues along those lines.

Cueto was a 2.8 WAR pitcher last year. If we assume just a few reasonable things, the Reds got a steal:


WAR $/WAR Multiplier Salary
2.8 4.50 0.4 $ 5.0
2.8 4.75 0.6 $ 8.0
2.8 5.00 0.8 $11.2
2.8 5.25 1.0 $14.7
$38.9