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dunner13
12-13-2010, 09:13 AM
From Mlbtraderumors.com

If you believe in the mystery team, the lefty may have three legitimate suitors. Otherwise, it's just the Yankees and Rangers. The top bullets have the latest:

The unidentified third team is only willing to go four or five years, writes George A. King III of the New York Post.

Its a longshot that we are the mystery team or that there is a mystery team at all, but my only hope is that I heard one baseball analyst saying that if an owner really wants a player sometimes he will tell the GM to go get him and he will pay for him separate from the budget. I know Walt tried hard to get Lee during the season, you have to think if we were willing to trade prospects to get him then maybe we were willing to spend the money to sign him long term.

westofyou
12-13-2010, 09:24 AM
Not a chance in the world.

RedLegSuperStar
12-13-2010, 09:25 AM
I always like to think that.. But I can't see this team spending $20+ million for the next 6-7 years on Lee. I'd love to see this team make a splash like that.. But just don't think it's financially fiesable.

Red Leader
12-13-2010, 09:28 AM
I agree. There's about a zero percent chance we are the mystery team. I could see that mystery team being either the Angels, Cubs, Nats, or the Red Sox (how big of a dagger would that be?).

lollipopcurve
12-13-2010, 09:29 AM
Given their previous interest in Lee, their ability to be "creative" with contracts, and the fact they swooped in quietly on Chapman, I don't put it past them. But with the microscope that's on these negotiations, I'm guessing no.

alexad
12-13-2010, 09:45 AM
It is Christmas time. So why not wish for it. The Reda have not been in their current position since 1995. So who knows what may happen. Getting over the hump is what needs to happen.

Maybe we get Lee and then trade a starter to the Royals for Greinke.

No chance I know but if you do not ask for it chances are you do not get it.

GoReds
12-13-2010, 09:46 AM
I think it's just Lee's agent trying to drive the process.

lollipopcurve
12-13-2010, 09:54 AM
I think it's just Lee's agent trying to drive the process.

Good chance of that. But the fact that it's taking a several days following "final offers," or what was reported as final offers, makes the machinations of a mystery team seem more plausible.

But you're probably right. The ink may not have dried on the Texas and NYY true final offers.

I(heart)Freel
12-13-2010, 09:59 AM
It's the years that will keep the Reds out of it. There just is no way they pay premium price for the number of years it would take. Not with a 7-deep roto right now and a Votto extension looming.

A trade would be a much smarter way to get the ace this team needs for another October run.

edabbs44
12-13-2010, 10:00 AM
Given their previous interest in Lee, their ability to be "creative" with contracts, and the fact they swooped in quietly on Chapman, I don't put it past them. But with the microscope that's on these negotiations, I'm guessing no.

My thoughts exactly.

Ron Madden
12-13-2010, 10:07 AM
Doubtful.

Griffey012
12-13-2010, 11:34 AM
I really hope we are not. I would love to have Lee for the next couple of seasons, as in about 3. But it would be horrible for our team to tie down that kind of money over that many years.

Johnny Footstool
12-13-2010, 12:00 PM
Yomiyuri Giants?

LoganBuck
12-13-2010, 01:46 PM
Yomiyuri Giants?

I would love to see Chris Carpenter explain that one to his son.

TRF
12-13-2010, 01:52 PM
Well, since I don't feel monkeys coming out of my butt, I doubt the Reds are the mystery team.

cincrazy
12-13-2010, 02:28 PM
Even if we were, there's no way he's going anywhere but New York or Texas. And this franchise can't afford to pay a pitcher nearing his mid-30's $20 million a year.

Benihana
12-13-2010, 05:30 PM
Any chance the Cards are the mystery team? Reportedly (if the team even exists) the offer is for less money but from a place that Lee loves. He is from Arkansas, so the closest team other than the Rangers (and Royals) would be the Cardinals (I think?)

At first glance, I don't think so with their staff already set and Pujols contract coming up. BUT maybe this is an indication to Albert they are serious about winning? They've surprised us before (with the Holliday deal) and this could be a semi-hedge if Pujols doesn't re-sign.

Also could be Houston but I seriously doubt it given the impending sale of the team.

Ron Madden
12-13-2010, 05:45 PM
Philadelphia maybe?

Benihana
12-13-2010, 05:51 PM
Philadelphia maybe?

Would Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels be the best pitching rotation of all time?

RedsManRick
12-13-2010, 06:36 PM
I sure as heck hope we're not the team. Whoever signs Lee is going to lose a lot of money on the deal. The guy has had 3 stellar seasons. And now somebody is going to pay him as if he's going to continue to doing it for twice as long as he's done it already.

I would not want to be on the hook for him after the age of 35. His stuff is good, but his success is built on the back of HOF caliber control. Once that slips, he could be very mediocre.

MattyHo4Life
12-13-2010, 07:24 PM
Any chance the Cards are the mystery team? Reportedly (if the team even exists) the offer is for less money but from a place that Lee loves. He is from Arkansas, so the closest team other than the Rangers (and Royals) would be the Cardinals (I think?)

I doubt it. The Cards don't have the payroll room, especially with an extension for Pujols hopefully in the near future.

GoReds
12-13-2010, 07:34 PM
Just thinking out loud to try to figure out who the "mystery team" could be, discounting the idea that I don't believe it in the first place.

Would have to be a team that follows this criteria:

1. Is a team that Lee likes. I have no idea who he likes, but I'm thinking you can rule out teams without playoff aspirations or a team that plays in a band-box stadium.

2. Would probably need to be a team that has a good offense and is a ringer away from being a WS contender.

3. Would have to be a team that has good prospects moving forward.

4. Has to be a team who can afford to take on his payroll without crippling the franchise.

With those criteria, I think I can eliminate Florida, Philly, Washington, Cubs, Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, San Diego, Arizona, Colorado, Seattle, Oakland, Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, Minnesota, Toronto, Tampa and, yes, Cincinnati.

That leaves the Mets and Yankees, Boston, Baltimore, White Sox, Texas, Anaheim, Atlanta, St. Louis, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Out of this group, I would guess either Atlanta or Baltimore. Baltimore needs to make a splash and has money, but my guess is they don't have the offense to support. So, that leaves Atlanta. They couldn't afford a long-term deal and I doubt they would offer one, but I could see them making a smaller offer to Lee.

UPDATE: So much for my reasoning - it's the Phillies.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/13/rosenthal-phillies-involved-in-pursuit-of-cliff-lee/

RedLegSuperStar
12-13-2010, 08:33 PM
I'll get sick if the Phillies land him! This is not good for baseball at all. Texas or bust in my opinion.. He wants to stay and taxes are so minimal it just makes to much sense.

Oxilon
12-13-2010, 08:36 PM
Ha! Called it!

RedEye
12-13-2010, 09:51 PM
Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt

That definitely has to be one of the sickest rotations of all time. We'll see what happens...

OnBaseMachine
12-13-2010, 10:04 PM
From Jon Heyman:

the #phillies look like a very strong candidate to win lee's services. #mysteryteam

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

I'd rather see him go to the Yankees. That way, the Reds wouldn't have to worry about facing him unless it's in Interleague play or the World Series.

The Operator
12-13-2010, 10:13 PM
And I thought I hated The Phillies this year.

They are quickly becoming The Yankees of the NL.

kaldaniels
12-13-2010, 11:30 PM
Lets talk dollars...how does Philly have the money to pay all these guys?

I know the Yanks and Sox make $$$ off YES and NESN, but where is this money in Philly coming from???

TheNext44
12-13-2010, 11:49 PM
Lets talk dollars...how does Philly have the money to pay all these guys?

I know the Yanks and Sox make $$$ off YES and NESN, but where is this money in Philly coming from???

They will have to shed salary. Not signing Werth saved them some, but they need to get rid of close to $10M to afford him. They have some big contracts they can move, so it is possible.

RedsManRick
12-13-2010, 11:57 PM
If I'm Roy Halladay, having just signed a 3 year, $60M deal, I'm VERY ambivalent about Lee coming aboard. That said, Phillies rotation is absolutely ridiculous now. Supposedly the Phillies are trying to dump Blanton somewhere. I could see him traded to the Twins with some of his salary paid.

edabbs44
12-13-2010, 11:59 PM
Texas has been told that Lee is headed to Philly. Crazy.

OnBaseMachine
12-14-2010, 12:03 AM
Hear Lee's deal is in the 5 yr, $100M range with #Phillies

http://twitter.com/Joelsherman1

Ron Madden
12-14-2010, 12:06 AM
Yep, it's Philadelphia.

http://trsullivan.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/12/cliff_lee_is_going_to_philadel.html

Ron Madden
12-14-2010, 12:07 AM
double post

HotCorner
12-14-2010, 12:08 AM
Good god. That rotation is filthy.

Red Leader
12-14-2010, 12:09 AM
The Phillies need to dump salary, immediately. Could you see a Cordero for Raul Ibanez trade working? He's one of their higher paid players and one of the players mentioned that they might need to cut ties with. I believe he also will be a free agent next offseason, so the contact might be a wash, or could be if a small amount of money was thrown into the deal. Anyone have interest in Ibanez?

EDIT: The Phils need to dump salary, not trade evenly in a salary wash. Therefore, would you offer a 'B' prospect or two to the Phils for Ibanez and $9.5M of his $11.5M contract for next year?

SirFelixCat
12-14-2010, 12:10 AM
Yup, done deal.


So sick. Wow.

SirFelixCat
12-14-2010, 12:10 AM
Barring injury, give them the trophy now.

RedsManRick
12-14-2010, 12:11 AM
Joe Blanton, your highest paid #5 starter? Making $10.5M in 2011 and 2012.

TheNext44
12-14-2010, 12:25 AM
Joe Blanton, your highest paid #5 starter? Making $10.5M in 2011 and 2012.

I can't imagine Blanton pitching for the Phillies next season. He has to be first on the "must trade" list.

Slyder
12-14-2010, 12:32 AM
Where's Bowie Kuhn with the "for the good of the game" response?

My goodness Philly's rotation went from being simply sick to absolutely freaking unfair!

1 Cliff Lee
2 Doc Halladay
3 Roy Oswalt
4 Cole Hamels

That 1-4 will out do most TEAMS by THEMSELVES! The #5 doesnt even matter. Just go 4 man and try to get 100 w's between those 4!

If we are to match them now

1)we absolutely HAVE to get Greinke and him be the 09 Greinke.
2)Chapman must make the rotation and IMMEDIATELY pitch like he's David Price
3) One (maybe two) of Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Wood, (Insert Starter here) has to blast through the glass ceiling and DESTROY stuff.

REDblooded
12-14-2010, 12:38 AM
gross.

KronoRed
12-14-2010, 12:40 AM
I think I hear the yankees stomping their foot and screaming.

Ron Madden
12-14-2010, 12:41 AM
I can't imagine Blanton pitching for the Phillies next season. He has to be first on the "must trade" list.

I bet Blanton goes on the trading block tomorrow.

Red Leader
12-14-2010, 12:44 AM
I bet Blanton goes on the trading block tonight.

Fixed that for you. :)

Chip R
12-14-2010, 12:46 AM
Good thing they traded him.

Ron Madden
12-14-2010, 12:47 AM
Good thing they traded him.

YES IT IS.

kaldaniels
12-14-2010, 12:56 AM
Why is the Cliff Lee signs with Phils stuff...shoved into the "are the Reds the mystery team thread"? How about a re-named thread at minimum?

kaldaniels
12-14-2010, 12:57 AM
Lee,Oswalt,and Halladay will all be 33 at some point next year.

If you want to give them the 2011 trophy...fine. But I hope this blows up in their face from the 2012 season on.

Homer Bailey
12-14-2010, 01:00 AM
And here I was happy that when I heard it wasn't the Yankees.

corkedbat
12-14-2010, 01:08 AM
Texas is now in the market for a starter. Offer up Vlquez or Bailey, Francisco, Valaika and Fisher for Nelson Cruz and one of their young SSs.

Slyder
12-14-2010, 01:18 AM
Texas is now in the market for a starter. Offer up volquez or Bailey, Francisco, Valaika and Fisher for Nelson Cruz and one of their young SSs.

Offer up Volquez and that short guy for Hamilton ;). I kid I kid.

If we're looking to compete with this group of guys we MUST go after Greinke or another of like ilk for the rotation. I'm sorry hoping and praying that Volquez, Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, Leake, Wood all hit the lottery at the same time is not an option if we want to win in October anytime in the next 5 years with Philadelphia looking like a freaking fantasy team with 3 cy young winners and a former World Series MVP, and San Francisco with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner (3 era as a rookie) already staring us down.

TheNext44
12-14-2010, 01:33 AM
We'll see...

Brutus
12-14-2010, 02:04 AM
Yankees missed out on both Crawford & Lee. Who saw that coming?

I hate that Lee signed with the Phillies, but I'd rather that happen than him go to the Yanks.

The Operator
12-14-2010, 02:05 AM
Less years and less money than I was expecting. Wow.

Let's just be thankful we aren't in the NL East. The unbalanced schedule is finally paying dividends!

That rotation is sick. Just sick. I sure hope their age catches up to them. That town simply DOES NOT deserve a team that good. I also hope no GM even thinks about trading for Joe Blanton. They signed him, let them pay him.

Will M
12-14-2010, 02:15 AM
Fangraphs posted this before the Lee deal: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-train-wreck-of-2006/
It a look back at some big fat contracts signed in 2006. Most haven't worked out well.

I think that a bit of caution is in order, especially for a small or mid market team, when other teams are throwing huge bucks at players. While there have been some deals I wish Walt would have done (say the DeJesus trade) the Lee, Werth or Crawford deals would not have been good for the Reds long term. Even looking at last years Holliday deal I think the 'jury is still out' on that one for the Cards. They have gotten one good year out of him. Now they need six more. There are many examples throughout the last two decades in baseball where a small to mid market team is put out of contention for years due to some albatross deal.

Yes it stinks that the Reds are in the same league as a team with 4 pitchers better than our best. Could be worse. We could be in the AL East. Lets hope Bob gives Walt the highest budget he can & then hope Walt builds the best roster he can with the limitations. Then lets play ball!

Ron Madden
12-14-2010, 02:19 AM
Fangraphs posted this before the Lee deal: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-train-wreck-of-2006/
It a look back at some big fat contracts signed in 2006. Most haven't worked out well.

I think that a bit of caution is in order, especially for a small or mid market team, when other teams are throwing huge bucks at players. While there have been some deals I wish Walt would have done (say the DeJesus trade) the Lee, Werth or Crawford deals would not have been good for the Reds long term. Even looking at last years Holliday deal I think the 'jury is still out' on that one for the Cards. They have gotten one good year out of him. Now they need six more. There are many examples throughout the last two decades in baseball where a small to mid market team is put out of contention for years due to some albatross deal.

Yes it stinks that the Reds are in the same league as a team with 4 pitchers better than our best. Could be worse. We could be in the AL East. Lets hope Bob gives Walt the highest budget he can & then hope Walt builds the best roster he can with the limitations. Then lets play ball!

I like this post and I'm in full agreement with it.

muddie
12-14-2010, 05:21 AM
Barring injury, give them the trophy now.

Never. Anything this sure is going to fall short of expectations. I think back to the Tigers a couple years back. They were picked to win it all and finished last. Not saying this bunch will finish last but would never say its a lock.

What a surprise...wow.

Brutus
12-14-2010, 05:28 AM
Never. Anything this sure is going to fall short of expectations. I think back to the Tigers a couple years back. They were picked to win it all and finished last. Not saying this bunch will finish last but would never say its a lock.

What a surprise...wow.

Plus, while this helps them in the regular season, once you have three dominant starters in the playoffs, a fourth doesn't really make much of a difference to be perfectly honest.

This is certainly a good insurance policy on 100 wins, but while it's one heck of a rotation in the playoffs, it's not like they didn't already have that.

mth123
12-14-2010, 06:33 AM
Plus, while this helps them in the regular season, once you have three dominant starters in the playoffs, a fourth doesn't really make much of a difference to be perfectly honest.

This is certainly a good insurance policy on 100 wins, but while it's one heck of a rotation in the playoffs, it's not like they didn't already have that.

Except if MLB figures things out and gets rid of all those off days in the play-offs, the fourth starter will become more important. It also gives them three studs if one of those guys goes down or if they get extended in a series and have their top guys pitching games 6 and 7 they still have two guys to start the next one w/o rushing number 1 and 2 back. As they add play-offs, its more likely that the 4th starter will play a bigger role in the post season.

15fan
12-14-2010, 06:36 AM
Plus, while this helps them in the regular season, once you have three dominant starters in the playoffs, a fourth doesn't really make much of a difference to be perfectly honest.

This is certainly a good insurance policy on 100 wins, but while it's one heck of a rotation in the playoffs, it's not like they didn't already have that.

This.

See the Braves under Bobby Cox for the better part of the 90s and early 00s.

blumj
12-14-2010, 07:29 AM
Stuff always happens, one of them will get hurt, another will stink it up for no reason anyone can figure out, the bullpen or defense will turn lousy, just seems to be how baseball works more often than not.

redsmetz
12-14-2010, 07:48 AM
Here's a piece I considered posting earlier. It's appropriate now given that the Yankees lost out again. This is a piece about when the Yanks lost out on Greg Maddox.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/sports/baseball/12yankees.html?_r=1&ref=baseball

Redsfan320
12-14-2010, 08:00 AM
Is this better than the 90's Braves rotation?

320

Strikes Out Looking
12-14-2010, 08:22 AM
Before you give the Phillies any trophys, remember the Giants beat all of these pitchers in the post-season.

And it's not like he's playing the outfield replacing Werth everyday.

And I second the opinion that I am very happy that its not the Yankees. I think they're fans really hurt them in the Lee sweepstakes during the post-season with their antics.

cincrazy
12-14-2010, 08:23 AM
Even if we were, there's no way he's going anywhere but New York or Texas. And this franchise can't afford to pay a pitcher nearing his mid-30's $20 million a year.

Whoops.

Redsfan320
12-14-2010, 08:23 AM
Phillies and Red Sox discussing Blanton (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/phillies-red-sox-discussed-joe-blanton.html)

First off, it looks like Blanton's time in Philly is running out real fast.

Secondly, how much money do the Red Sox have????

320

I(heart)Freel
12-14-2010, 08:24 AM
Just read the article on the signing on mlbtraderumors.com. This line jumped out:


Lee becomes the sixth pitcher in baseball history to sign for more than $100MM. He signed for more than Kevin Brown, the first pitcher to sign a $100MM deal, but less than C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, Barry Zito or Mike Hampton. Bargain or not, Lee's new contract is the 23rd most lucrative in baseball history.

Dubious company, don't you think?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/agree-to-sign-cliff-lee.html

cincrazy
12-14-2010, 08:26 AM
Offer up Volquez and that short guy for Hamilton ;). I kid I kid.

If we're looking to compete with this group of guys we MUST go after Greinke or another of like ilk for the rotation. I'm sorry hoping and praying that Volquez, Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, Leake, Wood all hit the lottery at the same time is not an option if we want to win in October anytime in the next 5 years with Philadelphia looking like a freaking fantasy team with 3 cy young winners and a former World Series MVP, and San Francisco with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner (3 era as a rookie) already staring us down.

I highly doubt that five years from now this Phillies team will be relevant. They're already pretty old, and while they're certainly scary right now, their window isn't going to be open very long. Utley and Rollins are clearly injury prone and declining, Howard and Victorino are aging, Werth is gone, and while one or two of Oswalt, Halladay, and Lee may age well, I doubt all of them do.

Caveat Emperor
12-14-2010, 08:30 AM
Plus, while this helps them in the regular season, once you have three dominant starters in the playoffs, a fourth doesn't really make much of a difference to be perfectly honest.

This is certainly a good insurance policy on 100 wins, but while it's one heck of a rotation in the playoffs, it's not like they didn't already have that.

Pretty much why this signing is a yawner to me.

Redsfan320
12-14-2010, 08:43 AM
7:35am: Word is that the Phillies have a Blanton deal in place with the Red Sox, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.

Blanton's time tickin' down real fast. He may gone by lunch.

320

blumj
12-14-2010, 08:44 AM
Phillies and Red Sox discussing Blanton (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/phillies-red-sox-discussed-joe-blanton.html)

First off, it looks like Blanton's time in Philly is running out real fast.

Secondly, how much money do the Red Sox have????

320
Doesn't make sense unless they found a place to send Dice-K, who makes a little more than Blanton and has a NTC.

hebroncougar
12-14-2010, 08:44 AM
I highly doubt that five years from now this Phillies team will be relevant. They're already pretty old, and while they're certainly scary right now, their window isn't going to be open very long. Utley and Rollins are clearly injury prone and declining, Howard and Victorino are aging, Werth is gone, and while one or two of Oswalt, Halladay, and Lee may age well, I doubt all of them do.

I was going to post something similar. They better find some offense, losing Werth, Utley's injury prone, Howard won't age well. Sure, they'll be good, and are a heavy favorite, but so were the Braves for about 15 years running, and they only won one world series. They "only" made like 5 in a 14 year span. Once the playoffs start, it's a crap shoot.

HotCorner
12-14-2010, 09:05 AM
If true this is a proverbial flipping of the bird to the Yankees ...



7:35am: Word is that the Phillies have a Blanton deal in place with the Red Sox, tweets SI's Jon Heyman. As one MLBTR commenter noted below, Boston's goal might have been to help facilitate Lee signing with a National League club. The Red Sox could always flip Blanton in the coming months, taking that burden off the Phillies.

HeatherC1212
12-14-2010, 09:05 AM
Unbelievable. :eek:

Although I'm kind of amused that he chose to go to pretty much the only other city in the USA where his wife may get spit on by the fans again, LOL :laugh:

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2010, 09:52 AM
If true this is a proverbial flipping of the bird to the Yankees ...

:D

blumj
12-14-2010, 09:52 AM
If true this is a proverbial flipping of the bird to the Yankees ...

If Blanton's going to be so easy to flip to another team, the Phillies wouldn't need the Red Sox to do it for them.

Hoosier Red
12-14-2010, 10:28 AM
Lee,Oswalt,and Halladay will all be 33 at some point next year.

If you want to give them the 2011 trophy...fine. But I hope this blows up in their face from the 2012 season on.

I agree. I think it could start blowing up on them as early as this year.

MattyHo4Life
12-14-2010, 10:28 AM
If true this is a proverbial flipping of the bird to the Yankees ...

Well....the Red Sox have become the Yankees....if not worse! They sign any player they want, and even pay other teams to keep players away from their competitors. I think we have a new Evil Empire, and it isn't in NY this time.

Chip R
12-14-2010, 10:34 AM
Well....the Red Sox have become the Yankees....if not worse! They sign any player they want, and even pay other teams to keep players away from their competitors. I think we have a new Evil Empire, and it isn't in NY this time.


Sorry, Matty, this rings hollow from someone who is a fan of a team who draws 3 million a year, has a $94M payroll, is paying Matt Holliday $120M over 7 years and will at least offer Pujols $25M a year to stay put.

MattyHo4Life
12-14-2010, 10:36 AM
Sorry, Matty, this rings hollow from someone who is a fan of a team who draws 3 million a year, has a $94M payroll, is paying Matt Holliday $120M over 7 years and will at least offer Pujols $25M a year to stay put.

In a few years....the Reds could very easily have the type of payroll that the Cardinals have now.

MattyHo4Life
12-14-2010, 10:39 AM
Oh, and I noticed that the Cardinals are pushing the Reds games in their holiday ticket packs this year. They usually only push the Cubs this way. They know fans want to see the Cards play the Reds now.

Sea Ray
12-14-2010, 10:47 AM
Less years and less money than I was expecting. Wow.

Let's just be thankful we aren't in the NL East. The unbalanced schedule is finally paying dividends!

That rotation is sick. Just sick. I sure hope their age catches up to them. That town simply DOES NOT deserve a team that good. I also hope no GM even thinks about trading for Joe Blanton. They signed him, let them pay him.

Thank the wonderful baseball system that the Phillies can do this. Sure it's a long season, injuries happen and anything can happen once the playoffs begin but MLB clearly is not a level playing field. This is why the cards are stacked against teams like our Reds. Enjoy every year that the Reds contend because they'll have to overcome signings like this every year. Our team has already spent to its limit where it can't make any trades to take on salary and they'll have to go with AAA players to stock its bench (Francisco, Cozart).

Our Reds have to rely on the stars aligning whereas the Phillies just have to hope for decent health

MattyHo4Life
12-14-2010, 10:51 AM
Thank the wonderful baseball system that the Phillies can do this. Sure it's a long season, injuries happen and anything can happen once the playoffs begin but MLB clearly is not a level playing field. This is why the cards are stacked against teams like our Reds. Enjoy every year that the Reds contend because they'll have to overcome signings like this every year. Our team has already spent to its limit where it can't make any trades to take on salary and they'll have to go with AAA players to stock its bench (Francisco, Cozart).

Our Reds have to rely on the stars aligning whereas the Phillies just have to hope for decent health

Well...the Reds won't ever be able to compete with a city the size of Philly when it comes to biggest payroll. However, Cincinnati and St. Louis really aren't that different. The Reds can have a payroll similar to the Cardinals....that is within reach.

Redsfan320
12-14-2010, 10:56 AM
Oh, and I noticed that the Cardinals are pushing the Reds games in their holiday ticket packs this year. They usually only push the Cubs this way. They know fans want to see the Cards play the Reds now.

The Reds are doing the same, making the Cards games "select" games. They would only do that for, lol, the Cubs.

320

Chip R
12-14-2010, 10:58 AM
In a few years....the Reds could very easily have the type of payroll that the Cardinals have now.


Not unless they start drawing 3 million people a year which will never happen.

westofyou
12-14-2010, 11:02 AM
Not unless they start drawing 3 million people a year which will never happen.

If I had a buck for every time that sentiment was verbalized...

Heath
12-14-2010, 11:09 AM
Well...the Reds won't ever be able to compete with a city the size of Philly when it comes to biggest payroll. However, Cincinnati and St. Louis really aren't that different. The Reds can have a payroll similar to the Cardinals....that is within reach.

The Reds had that in the '70s. Ohio, West VA, KY, Indiana, even TN was "Reds country".

The Cards of the present have that now. They use MO, Illinois, Western KY & TN, Southern Iowa, Northern Arkansas. A Cardinal home game on the weekends? Sold out. It's the family weekend getaway.

blumj
12-14-2010, 11:35 AM
Well....the Red Sox have become the Yankees....if not worse! They sign any player they want, and even pay other teams to keep players away from their competitors. I think we have a new Evil Empire, and it isn't in NY this time.

If that was even close to true, why are they the team supposedly trading for Joe Blanton instead of the one that's actually signing Cliff Lee, you know, the really good pitcher in all this?

westofyou
12-14-2010, 11:40 AM
Oh, and I noticed that the Cardinals are pushing the Reds games in their holiday ticket packs this year. They usually only push the Cubs this way. They know fans want to see the Cards play the Reds now.

Whoa... that's a kick.

Roy Tucker
12-14-2010, 11:46 AM
Well....the Red Sox have become the Yankees....if not worse! They sign any player they want, and even pay other teams to keep players away from their competitors. I think we have a new Evil Empire, and it isn't in NY this time.

If the commish had any guts, he wouldn't allow these kinds of shenanigans to go on.

MattyHo4Life
12-14-2010, 11:50 AM
Not unless they start drawing 3 million people a year which will never happen.

There is no reason why that can't happen. The cities are similar in size, but Cincinnati has more bigger cities nearby than St. Louis does. With the correct management and marketing, there is no reason why Cincinnati can't draw 3Mil fans.

westofyou
12-14-2010, 11:52 AM
If the commish had any guts, he wouldn't allow these kinds of shenanigans to go on.

This stuff has been going on forever, only 2 times has a commish decided he was bigger than the owners, Landis and Kuhn, both were edged out because of it.

As for the talk that the RS are now like the Yankees... when has at least one team from that city not been?

Besides the 20's

Boston bought Kelly for 10 K over 120 years ago, they bought Grove, Foxx in the 30's, and tons of St. Browns in the late 40's again they chased them in the 70's and 80's.

This dance is a lot older than the ESPN era.

HotCorner
12-14-2010, 11:52 AM
There is no Evil Empire™ anymore but rather the Axis of Evil™ (Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies). :D

MattyHo4Life
12-14-2010, 12:06 PM
This stuff has been going on forever, only 2 times has a commish decided he was bigger than the owners, Landis and Kuhn, both were edged out because of it.

As for the talk that the RS are now like the Yankees... when has at least one team from that city not been?

Besides the 20's

Boston bought Kelly for 10 K over 120 years ago, they bought Grove, Foxx in the 30's, and tons of St. Browns in the late 40's again they chased them in the 70's and 80's.

This dance is a lot older than the ESPN era.

I always love your history lessons WOY. :thumbup:

Eric_the_Red
12-14-2010, 12:47 PM
I always love your history lessons WOY. :thumbup:


Co-sign.

And to fans that complain about the Yankees, Red Sox and I suppose now Phillies, I'm sorry, but I don't get it. Those teams are playing within the rules. If you want to get angry at somebody for "destroying baseball", focus your attention on the owners that field a team on the cheap and pocket more in profits than the big(ger) boys.

Or better yet, get angry at the owners and player's union for not instituting a salary cap like the NFL or NBA.

Edd Roush
12-14-2010, 12:53 PM
I was going to post something similar. They better find some offense, losing Werth, Utley's injury prone, Howard won't age well. Sure, they'll be good, and are a heavy favorite, but so were the Braves for about 15 years running, and they only won one world series. They "only" made like 5 in a 14 year span. Once the playoffs start, it's a crap shoot.

I personally think Dominic Brown is going to fit in very well in Werth's spot next year. Brown was the #15 prospect in all of baseball before last year and OPSed .980 in his year 22 season between AA and AAA. I don't expect any drop off in this offense next year. Honestly, if the Phillies get lucky with health next year, I could see them approaching 100 wins next season.

Chip R
12-14-2010, 12:59 PM
There is no reason why that can't happen. The cities are similar in size, but Cincinnati has more bigger cities nearby than St. Louis does. With the correct management and marketing, there is no reason why Cincinnati can't draw 3Mil fans.

The Reds would have to average 37,000 per game for that to happen. That means the Tuesday night games in September with Arizona when school's in session. That means the businessman day specials against HOU in mid July when it's 95 in the shade. That means the Wednesday night games in April against PIT when it's 25 at 1st pitch. That means coming down from Dayton to go to the Reds game instead of the Dragons game.

The Reds were the last team to draw 1 million fans a season (1956). They didn't draw 2 million until 1973. Even during the BRM era they wouldn't draw on weekdays against the Atlantas and Houstons of the world on the weekdays. And that was with a very savvy marketing staff for the time. So it's not just this generation of Reds fans. This has been passed down for generations.

As for more larger cities in the region, that's true but all those cities have minor league teams with new ballparks. Back in the 70s when the BRM was in its glory, if one of those cities had a minor league team, it was probably in a crappy, old stadium and the games weren't well promoted.

Is it impossible for the Reds to draw 3 million? No, but it's highly unlikely and even if they do, they may not be able to sustain it like the other teams in the division - except PIT - have.

Sea Ray
12-14-2010, 02:53 PM
Co-sign.

And to fans that complain about the Yankees, Red Sox and I suppose now Phillies, I'm sorry, but I don't get it. Those teams are playing within the rules. If you want to get angry at somebody for "destroying baseball", focus your attention on the owners that field a team on the cheap and pocket more in profits than the big(ger) boys.

Or better yet, get angry at the owners and player's union for not instituting a salary cap like the NFL or NBA.

I don't blame the teams. I blame the system, thus you're correct. We ought to blame the Union and the owners but I particularly blame the Union because the owners tried to do a salary cap a long time ago but it was shot down by the Union. Bud Selig alsl shares in the blame

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2010, 03:19 PM
There is no Evil Empire™ anymore but rather the Axis of Evil™ (Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies). :D

:ughmamoru

redsmetz
12-14-2010, 03:32 PM
I don't blame the teams. I blame the system, thus you're correct. We ought to blame the Union and the owners but I particularly blame the Union because the owners tried to do a salary cap a long time ago but it was shot down by the Union. Bud Selig alsl shares in the blame

For 75 years, the owners had their way with players, telling them what they would make or to take a hike (yes, you had the occasional holdout that got some slightly higher amount). They held the rights to a player in perpetuity. So now the players have the pendulum swing their way for about 35 years or so, and it's their fault?

I'm not bothered by this contract. I almost started a thread saying this gives me a small bit of hope. There's no question that salaries are getting stratospheric and it is a risk for teams such as the Reds, but this player walked away from about $50M and signed with the team he wanted. I wonder these days when some players will decide that there's not much difference in the grand scheme of things between earning one enormous amount of money and some more enormous amount. Bronson, while not giving a "hometown discount" was candid that he could take his money deferred because he didn't need it now and he knew he would get it ultimately. I'm not nominating him for a Nobel Prize, mind you, but these things have a way of evening out.

And top players' salaries really aren't out of line with other entertainers such as actors and musicians who are at their peak. But I don't begrudge baseball players making what they're making. Clubs such as the Reds have to work smarter, but it can be done.

Brutus
12-14-2010, 03:36 PM
You know, I was just reading comments from Rangers GM and managing partner Jon Daniels and Chuck Greenberg and how they were basically saying Lee would have signed if they were willing to guarantee the 7th year.

It seems to me that if you've gone with a 6-year deal with a vesting option for a 7th, why not just be willing to guarantee the 7th if truly Lee would have signed? I have to say I think if that was the only thing standing in the way, the Rangers may have as well just done it. Make no mistake, I'm never keen on a 7-year deal for a 30-something pitcher. But if the only holdup was guaranteeing the 7th year they had on the table already, they probably should have done it.

westofyou
12-14-2010, 03:41 PM
For 75 years, the owners had their way with players, telling them what they would make or to take a hike (yes, you had the occasional holdout that got some slightly higher amount). They held the rights to a player in perpetuity. So now the players have the pendulum swing their way for about 35 years or so, and it's their fault?


Lou Gehrig took a 5 K pay cut in 1939 for not hitting .300 in 1938

.295/.410/.523/.932

That's just a tear in a salted sea as far as examples of the other sides misuse of the dollar in the game.

Sea Ray
12-14-2010, 03:50 PM
For 75 years, the owners had their way with players, telling them what they would make or to take a hike (yes, you had the occasional holdout that got some slightly higher amount). They held the rights to a player in perpetuity. So now the players have the pendulum swing their way for about 35 years or so, and it's their fault?


It sure is. The competitive balance is out of whack. With a salary cap the players will still get their money, but the Phillies couldn't sign Lee without cutting Oswalt or something like that. If that can't be done then I imagine Texas would have been able to fit him under a cap.

The players don't suffer under a salary cap because the total dollars stay high. Teams like the Yankees and Phillies have to cut salaries but this is more than accounted for by increases in places like Pittsburgh and Florida.

So the comparison to owners control is not valid. The players still enjoy free agency. In fact they'd likely enjoy more freedom because arbitration would likely go by the wayside under a new system

Sea Ray
12-14-2010, 03:57 PM
Lou Gehrig took a 5 K pay cut in 1939 for not hitting .300 in 1938

.295/.410/.523/.932

That's just a tear in a salted sea as far as examples of the other sides misuse of the dollar in the game.

1938 was his worst year in over a decade. What's wrong with a $5K cut? Are you saying he was underpaid in 1939?

Sea Ray
12-14-2010, 03:59 PM
You know, I was just reading comments from Rangers GM and managing partner Jon Daniels and Chuck Greenberg and how they were basically saying Lee would have signed if they were willing to guarantee the 7th year.

It seems to me that if you've gone with a 6-year deal with a vesting option for a 7th, why not just be willing to guarantee the 7th if truly Lee would have signed? I have to say I think if that was the only thing standing in the way, the Rangers may have as well just done it. Make no mistake, I'm never keen on a 7-year deal for a 30-something pitcher. But if the only holdup was guaranteeing the 7th year they had on the table already, they probably should have done it.

Seeing as he signed for 5 yrs I find it hard to believe that a 7 yr deal from the Rangers was a must have for Lee

Caveat Emperor
12-14-2010, 04:03 PM
Is it impossible for the Reds to draw 3 million? No, but it's highly unlikely and even if they do, they may not be able to sustain it like the other teams in the division - except PIT - have.

The Yankees aren't a cash cow because of the tickets they sell -- the Yankees are a cash cow because they operate a cable network (YES) in a city that is larger all but 11 states in the union.

Chip R
12-14-2010, 04:10 PM
The Yankees aren't a cash cow because of the tickets they sell -- the Yankees are a cash cow because they operate a cable network (YES) in a city that is larger all but 11 states in the union.


That helps but they also have an advantage only one other team has. They are in New York City. No team other than the Mets can compete with that. Mess around with finances all you want but in the end, if everything's even, guys are going to go to NY because it's NY.

REDREAD
12-14-2010, 04:12 PM
Well...the Reds won't ever be able to compete with a city the size of Philly when it comes to biggest payroll. However, Cincinnati and St. Louis really aren't that different. The Reds can have a payroll similar to the Cardinals....that is within reach.

Yep. If anything, the Lee signing gives me hope.

Lee was the best FA pitcher. He took less money and less years to sign with a team that he liked. I'm glad NY or Boston did not get him.

And I agree Matty, no reason the Reds can't have the same payroll as the Cards eventually. They are similiar in market size. I've been saying that ever since Carl Linder and John Allen were pinching pennies.

Brutus
12-14-2010, 04:14 PM
Seeing as he signed for 5 yrs I find it hard to believe that a 7 yr deal from the Rangers was a must have for Lee

Why? It's not that much of a leap. If you were in Lee's shoes, wouldn't there be some teams you'd require more years or more dollars than others? I doubt any player truly has a unilateral request that would be the same for every single team.

I personally could see myself asking a little more from some teams than others.

REDREAD
12-14-2010, 04:14 PM
If that was even close to true, why are they the team supposedly trading for Joe Blanton instead of the one that's actually signing Cliff Lee, you know, the really good pitcher in all this?

I have no idea why they want Blanton, but they did fleece SD for Gonzales and signed Crawford.

To the casual fan like me, Boston operates pretty much exactly like the Yankees. They buy up the stars from other teams as they become expensive.
They usually get the best FAs. I don't blame them for doing it.

Sea Ray
12-14-2010, 04:15 PM
Yep. If anything, the Lee signing gives me hope.

Lee was the best FA pitcher. He took less money and less years to sign with a team that he liked. I'm glad NY or Boston did not get him.

And I agree Matty, no reason the Reds can't have the same payroll as the Cards eventually. They are similiar in market size. I've been saying that ever since Carl Linder and John Allen were pinching pennies.

He really didn't take less money. It was less guaranteed years but it was more money per year


Assuming that the reports of both the Yankees and Rangers offering Lee huge seven-year deals were true, that means Lee left $28 million on the table, though he does get a higher average annual value with the Phillies deal. http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/12/14/report-cliff-lee-to-sign-with-phillies/

Sea Ray
12-14-2010, 04:17 PM
Why? It's not that much of a leap. If you were in Lee's shoes, wouldn't there be some teams you'd require more years or more dollars than others? I doubt any player truly has a unilateral request that would be the same for every single team.

I personally could see myself asking a little more from some teams than others.

Why would you pitch in a less desirable place when you're going to be filthy rich regardless? After awhile you know you're going to get the money; you just want to pitch where you'll be most happy and it sounds like that was Philly for him

REDREAD
12-14-2010, 04:19 PM
He really didn't take less money. It was less guaranteed years but it was more money per year

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/12/14/report-cliff-lee-to-sign-with-phillies/

Sorry, less total guaranteed money is what I meant.

Brutus
12-14-2010, 04:21 PM
Why would you pitch in a less desirable place when you're going to be filthy rich regardless? After awhile you know you're going to get the money; you just want to pitch where you'll be most happy and it sounds like that was Philly for him

I don't think it was about going where he was most comfortable. I think it was about going where he was able to balance being comfortable with getting a good deal.

I think he was comfortable in Texas, but less so than in Philadelphia so given a little extra would have put it on equal or greater footing.

I think it makes complete sense. He was comfortable in Texas, but not as much as he liked Philly. If Texas had come through with one more year, perhaps that deal would have put them over the top. I think it's completely plausible.

RFS62
12-14-2010, 04:25 PM
I understand his family really loved Philly (yeah, really).

When you're rich beyond your wildest dreams, I never did understand why guys don't always go where they want to live and play when given a chance.

An Arkansas boy in New York City isn't the best fit in the world, but I wouldn't have thought Philly would be either.

Chip R
12-14-2010, 04:31 PM
I understand his family really loved Philly (yeah, really).

When you're rich beyond your wildest dreams, I never did understand why guys don't always go where they want to live and play when given a chance.

An Arkansas boy in New York City isn't the best fit in the world, but I wouldn't have thought Philly would be either.


Dallas isn't exactly Arkansas either. It's closer to it than NYC and Philly but it's still pretty cosmopolitan. Perhaps Lee wants to come back to the NL where he faces 8 good hitters in the lineup instead of 9. Also, the NL is supposed to be the inferior league quality wise.

I never thought Paul O'Neill would enoy NYC like he did so you never know.

blumj
12-14-2010, 04:35 PM
I have no idea why they want Blanton, but they did fleece SD for Gonzales and signed Crawford.

To the casual fan like me, Boston operates pretty much exactly like the Yankees. They buy up the stars from other teams as they become expensive.
They usually get the best FAs. I don't blame them for doing it.
Well, apparently the Red Sox don't want Blanton, that seems to have just been twitter rumors run amok. My point was, the Red Sox did not/would not trade for Blanton and his $18+M contract just so the Phillies could keep Cliff Lee away from the Yankees. Whether someone thinks that would be wrong or evil or whatever, it would be stupid.


Of course, feigning some interest in Blanton while Lee's still thinking it over might be wrong, but wouldn't necessarily be stupid.

Sea Ray
12-14-2010, 04:44 PM
I don't think it was about going where he was most comfortable. I think it was about going where he was able to balance being comfortable with getting a good deal.

I think he was comfortable in Texas, but less so than in Philadelphia so given a little extra would have put it on equal or greater footing.

I think it makes complete sense. He was comfortable in Texas, but not as much as he liked Philly. If Texas had come through with one more year, perhaps that deal would have put them over the top. I think it's completely plausible.

Perhaps. We can't know for sure but once you're talking that kind of $$, I sure hope he just goes where he's most comfortable.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2010, 04:48 PM
I understand his family really loved Philly (yeah, really).

When you're rich beyond your wildest dreams, I never did understand why guys don't always go where they want to live and play when given a chance.

An Arkansas boy in New York City isn't the best fit in the world, but I wouldn't have thought Philly would be either.

Small sample size! ;)

15fan
12-14-2010, 05:22 PM
You know, I was just reading comments from Rangers GM and managing partner Jon Daniels and Chuck Greenberg and how they were basically saying Lee would have signed if they were willing to guarantee the 7th year.

It seems to me that if you've gone with a 6-year deal with a vesting option for a 7th, why not just be willing to guarantee the 7th if truly Lee would have signed? I have to say I think if that was the only thing standing in the way, the Rangers may have as well just done it. Make no mistake, I'm never keen on a 7-year deal for a 30-something pitcher. But if the only holdup was guaranteeing the 7th year they had on the table already, they probably should have done it.

That's the way Mrs. fan works.

Me: Here's our price range for (insert: house / car / vacation / Christmas / furniture / home renovation project, etc). Anything up to $X. At $X, we have to stop. There is no more after $X. We can't cover debt above $X. We can't cover contingencies / emergencies / opportunities after $X. If we can't do it for $X, we can't do it.

Her: But why can't we go $X + (fill in the blank)? If we can go $X + ___, then we can also get/do/fix/buy/upgrade this other thing. There's a really great deal to be had if we go $X + ___.

Me: :explode:

Good for Texas for sticking to $X.

KronoRed
12-14-2010, 05:55 PM
In a few years....the Reds could very easily have the type of payroll that the Cardinals have now.

Then pigs will fly.:D

Brutus
12-14-2010, 05:58 PM
That's the way Mrs. fan works.

Me: Here's our price range for (insert: house / car / vacation / Christmas / furniture / home renovation project, etc). Anything up to $X. At $X, we have to stop. There is no more after $X. We can't cover debt above $X. We can't cover contingencies / emergencies / opportunities after $X. If we can't do it for $X, we can't do it.

Her: But why can't we go $X + (fill in the blank)? If we can go $X + ___, then we can also get/do/fix/buy/upgrade this other thing. There's a really great deal to be had if we go $X + ___.

Me: :explode:

Good for Texas for sticking to $X.

I understand drawing a line in the sand. But it seems it wasn't even about the dollars. Basically they were already offering a vesting option for the 7th year. So all, at least according to them, Lee was asking for was guaranteeing the 7th year.

In other words, they were already within their budget. If guaranteeing a season you were already offering was the only thing stopping it, just doesn't seem like something that should stop them.

RedsManRick
12-14-2010, 06:45 PM
You know, I saw a good point made by a commenter over at fangraphs. Sure, Lee is something like a 4 or 5 win upgrade in their rotation. But they also downgraded 2 or 3 wins by going from Jayson Werth to Dominic Brown and company. Sure, the Phillies are a better team than they were a month ago, but they're not an uber-team.

edabbs44
12-14-2010, 08:49 PM
You know, I saw a good point made by a commenter over at fangraphs. Sure, Lee is something like a 4 or 5 win upgrade in their rotation. But they also downgraded 2 or 3 wins by going from Jayson Werth to Dominic Brown and company. Sure, the Phillies are a better team than they were a month ago, but they're not an uber-team.

It's really, really tough to project what Dom Brown is going to do next season. Especially in comparison to a guy with a track record like Werth.

Red Leader
12-14-2010, 08:52 PM
It's really, really tough to project what Dom Brown is going to do next season. Especially in comparison to a guy with a track record like Werth.

There was a rumor that Philadelphia had talked to Boston about Mike Cameron now that he's no longer in their plans. That was about the same time that the Joe Blanton rumors were flying though, so maybe it was just talk.

Cedric
12-14-2010, 11:17 PM
I expect Howard to fall off the map in production soon. Oswalt is living on severely borrowed time also.

They might have enough depth to make up for it now though.

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2010, 01:17 AM
You know, I saw a good point made by a commenter over at fangraphs. Sure, Lee is something like a 4 or 5 win upgrade in their rotation. But they also downgraded 2 or 3 wins by going from Jayson Werth to Dominic Brown and company. Sure, the Phillies are a better team than they were a month ago, but they're not an uber-team.

And I wasn't impressed with Brown what little I saw of him. He's more likely to bust than be a semi-star. I think he will likely be alot like a Reggie Sanders type.

RedsManRick
12-15-2010, 01:57 AM
And I wasn't impressed with Brown what little I saw of him. He's more likely to bust than be a semi-star. I think he will likely be alot like a Reggie Sanders type.

My understanding is that he's got some great tools but that lefties eat him for lunch and that he'll absolutely need to be platooned or take some pretty big lumps.

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2010, 02:03 AM
My understanding is that he's got some great tools but that lefties eat him for lunch and that he'll absolutely need to be platooned or take some pretty big lumps.

Yeah and not much for off speed stuff in general either.

Topcat
12-15-2010, 04:03 AM
Phils have pitching and if they win the division chuck out all stats. If they get to the playoffs who wants to face there big 3 ? best part really though is who saw San Fran winning it all? That is why they play the game and I as a fan am grateful for that element.

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2010, 06:23 AM
Phils have pitching and if they win the division chuck out all stats. If they get to the playoffs who wants to face there big 3 ? best part really though is who saw San Fran winning it all? That is why they play the game and I as a fan am grateful for that element.

In all honesty Lee and Oswalt can be beat, Hamels is tough and Halladay is..well tougher. If Hamels or Halladay are beat up or injured all you gotta do is pitch well against them to beat them in a series.

traderumor
12-15-2010, 07:43 AM
If I've learned anything in closing in on 40 years following the game, the more a team is seemingly "stacked" through big name, free agent acquisitions, the less likely it is that they realize their potential. This rotation looks like an 8-team fantasy league rotation now, but I will be one of the least surprised people to see the Phillies struggle.

For example, Oswalt had a great bump after the trade last year, but he was starting to show decline while with Houston. Lee has the security of a LT contract for the first time. Will he keep his edge? Halladay had his first injury free season in a while last year. Hamels is historically streaky.

blumj
12-15-2010, 08:59 AM
There was a rumor that Philadelphia had talked to Boston about Mike Cameron now that he's no longer in their plans. That was about the same time that the Joe Blanton rumors were flying though, so maybe it was just talk.
Blanton for Cameron would make sense for the Phillies, so I would think the Red Sox were trying to figure out a way to flip Blanton or Dice-K to a 3rd team for something else they haven't been able to get for Cameron straight.

Chip R
12-15-2010, 09:11 AM
Who would pick anyone else to win that division?

TRF
12-15-2010, 09:39 AM
And I wasn't impressed with Brown what little I saw of him. He's more likely to bust than be a semi-star. I think he will likely be alot like a Reggie Sanders type.

Reggie Sanders:

.267 .343 .487 .830 lifetime with excellent defense, behind that rotation.

Jason Werth:

.272 .367 .481 .848 so far with average defense.

If Brown can be Reggie Sanders, the Phillies will be thrilled.

blumj
12-15-2010, 09:48 AM
Who would pick anyone else to win that division?
Nobody, but that says almost as much about the rest of that division as it does about the Phillies.

Chip R
12-15-2010, 09:53 AM
Nobody, but that says almost as much about the rest of that division as it does about the Phillies.


Yes. But I think they would be the favorite to win any division in bazseball, American or National League.

mth123
12-15-2010, 10:08 AM
Reggie Sanders:

.267 .343 .487 .830 lifetime with excellent defense, behind that rotation.

Jason Werth:

.272 .367 .481 .848 so far with average defense.

If Brown can be Reggie Sanders, the Phillies will be thrilled.

Absolutely. Sanders failed to live-up to overly high expectations, but was a pretty darned good player IMO.

Hoosier Red
12-15-2010, 10:29 AM
If I've learned anything in closing in on 40 years following the game, the more a team is seemingly "stacked" through big name, free agent acquisitions, the less likely it is that they realize their potential. This rotation looks like an 8-team fantasy league rotation now, but I will be one of the least surprised people to see the Phillies struggle.

For example, Oswalt had a great bump after the trade last year, but he was starting to show decline while with Houston. Lee has the security of a LT contract for the first time. Will he keep his edge? Halladay had his first injury free season in a while last year. Hamels is historically streaky.

I agree with this. The Phillies are the favorites to win the world series, but there's still a much better chance that someone else wins the World Series than they do.

I think right now, being the favorites to win the WS has a lot to do with the fact that they have the best chance of getting to the playoffs. They're the combination of really good team and really weak division that I'd expect them to make it. But whether or not they'd be favorites to win any other division, they won't win the NL Central or the NL West. If they win the NL East they of course won't win the Wild Card or any of the AL divisions or WildCards.

While this explanation is intentionally silly, the point is, I don't think the Reds have as good of a chance of winning the NL Central as the Phillies do of winning the NL East, but that won't matter in October. If the Reds, or the Cardinals, or the Brewers or God forbid the Cubs win the Central, they're in the playoffs and have roughly as good of odds as any at advancing.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 02:04 AM
The earliest Cliff Lee can now get a win is July. :eek: Who'da thunk it? Especially with his talent?

MikeThierry
06-30-2012, 02:12 AM
The earliest Cliff Lee can now get a win is July. :eek: Who'da thunk it? Especially with his talent?

Is this the most shocking thing in baseball this year? I think it is.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 02:48 AM
Is this the most shocking thing in baseball this year? I think it is.

I think when you consider that he won 17 games last year and that he usually good for at least 14 wins a year, I think it's definitely shocking. Or the Phillies downfall in general? Last place was certainly unexpected.

Is it the most shocking? Maybe? What about your boy Pujols possibly having the worst year of his career this year? He's on pace to probably be around a 3ish win player for the year. He started slow and has picked it up, but he's still not looking so hot. This coming on the heels of last year being his worst year, where he was worth 5.1 wins. And keeping with the Angels, Mike Trout's emergence has been pretty incredible as well.

I don't know. This could make for a good thread in of itself. What are the biggest headlines of the first half of the season?

MikeThierry
06-30-2012, 03:02 AM
I think when you consider that he won 17 games last year and that he usually good for at least 14 wins a year, I think it's definitely shocking. Or the Phillies downfall in general? Last place was certainly unexpected.

Is it the most shocking? Maybe? What about your boy Pujols possibly having the worst year of his career this year? He's on pace to probably be around a 3ish win player for the year. He started slow and has picked it up, but he's still not looking so hot. This coming on the heels of last year being his worst year, where he was worth 5.1 wins. And keeping with the Angels, Mike Trout's emergence has been pretty incredible as well.

I don't know. This could make for a good thread in of itself. What are the biggest headlines of the first half of the season?

Pujols is Pujols again and I wouldn't be shocked to get his usual .300 BA, 30 HR's, 100 RBI's at the end of the season. It would have shocked me if his slump lasted for more than just one month. His BA is up to .270 now and is almost OPSing .800 which is amazing considering where he was. Furthermore his OPS+ is still a respectable 121.

Tom Servo
06-30-2012, 03:07 AM
The emergence of RA Dickey has to be up there in terms of stories.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 03:09 AM
Pujols is Pujols again and I wouldn't be shocked to get his usual .300 BA, 30 HR's, 100 RBI's at the end of the season. It would have shocked me if his slump lasted for more than just one month. His BA is up to .270 now and is almost OPSing .800 which is amazing considering where he was. Furthermore his OPS+ is still a respectable 121.

He has come a long way, but his BB/K ratio is way down (career is 1.36 and he's currently at .80) and maybe most shockingly, his OBP is a career worst by a longshot. He's a career .417 guy and is currently sitting at .332. His SLG is down massively too, as he's a career .610 guy and is currently at .461.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 03:10 AM
The emergence of RA Dickey has to be up there in terms of stories.

yes, absolutely! how could i forget about that.

MikeThierry
06-30-2012, 03:23 AM
He has come a long way, but his BB/K ratio is way down (career is 1.36 and he's currently at .80) and maybe most shockingly, his OBP is a career worst by a longshot. He's a career .417 guy and is currently sitting at .332. His SLG is down massively too, as he's a career .610 guy and is currently at .461.


I've seen him long enough to know that his numbers can change quickly. Heck, he started off horrible last year and ended up being in the top 5 MVP voting for his 10th year. The amazing thing is that I think only Barry Bonds has more top 5 MVP votes all time. He has more to 5 MVP votes than Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, etc. It would not shock me if he carries his team to the playoffs like he did last year, that he wouldn't end up in the top 5. I've seen the unexpected from him and nothing surprises me anymore with him.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 03:29 AM
I've seen him long enough to know that his numbers can change quickly. Heck, he started off horrible last year and ended up being in the top 5 MVP voting for his 10th year. The amazing thing is that I think only Barry Bonds has more top 5 MVP votes all time. He has more to 5 MVP votes than Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, etc. It would not shock me if he carries his team to the playoffs like he did last year, that he wouldn't end up in the top 5. I've seen the unexpected from him and nothing surprises me anymore with him.

I think that all is definitely possible, but last year was the worst year of his career and he's not getting any younger. I think there is a very good chance that this will be the worst year of his career so far. I would be pretty surprised if he wins the MVP, or even receives a lot of votes for it. Especially when he's not even the best player on his own team this year. I don't think he'll catch Trout's WAR number.

MikeThierry
06-30-2012, 03:33 AM
That's another great story. With all the Harper hype, Trout is having one of the best rookie years since Albert Pujols came into the league.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 03:55 AM
That's another great story. With all the Harper hype, Trout is having one of the best rookie years since Albert Pujols came into the league.

Agreed. Harper is having a fine rookie season, but Trout is on another planet by comparison. But as we know, ESPN loves the east coast and doesn't pay as much attention to the west coast.

Who knows if it will hold, but Trout is on pace possibly to have the best rookie season of all time for a hitter (or at least 1 of). However, he's going to have to match his 1st half to get there or even be a tad better. I could be wrong, and I'm sure someone will correct me if I am, but I believe numbers wise, Ted Williams had the best rookie season ever as a hitter with 7.9 WAR (Pujols was 7.7), according to fangraphs.

dougdirt
06-30-2012, 11:40 AM
Trout is having a fantastic year. But not even the best year from a 20 year old that most of us on the board can even remember. Arod his .358/.414/.631 with 54 doubles and 36 home runs in 1996.

VR
06-30-2012, 12:43 PM
The earliest Cliff Lee can now get a win is July. :eek: Who'da thunk it? Especially with his talent?

Phillies are 10 games out of 1st.....would be nice to throw together a package to get him.