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mth123
12-15-2010, 07:02 AM
Maybe its time to consider a deal with them. They need help in the rotation and the pen and would probably have interest in both Cordero and Volquez. Adding Cordero to the pen would free Joba for a move to the rotation and Volquez would be that former all star type that they would lke to add to the rotation.

Francisco Cordero and Edinson Volquez for Curtis Granderson and two of Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman and Manny Banuelos.

For the Yankees, they address the rotation and the pen while opening a spot in the OF. Gardner moves to CF and LF becomes available as a possible spot for Jesus Montero or a signing of a guy like Magglio Ordonez. The Reds cut some dollars while balancing/fixing the line-up and adding a huge upgrade. The team would have money for Rhodes or another reliever to help in the pen and two more depth options behind the Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake rotation (a guy like Nova might beat out Leake for the 5th spot). Chapman would close with Masset and whoever they could sign setting up. I've been a Volquez supporter and recognize that he may have the potential to be the best of the bunch, but I've become a skeptic lately and have serious doubts about him. The Reds would probably still have the money and, with Leake and two arms from the Yankees top prospect group, enough depth of valued pitching prospects to add a rental TOR arm at the deadline.

alexad
12-15-2010, 07:06 AM
We always get fleeced by the Yankees. I pass.

membengal
12-15-2010, 07:17 AM
Isn't Granderson expensive going forward? I like the team and the general idea, mth, but think Gardner would fit the bill better for the Reds.

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2010, 07:21 AM
Maybe its time to consider a deal with them. They need help in the rotation and the pen and would probably have interest in both Cordero and Volquez. Adding Cordero to the pen would free Joba for a move to the rotation and Volquez would be that former all star type that they would lke to add to the rotation.

Francisco Cordero and Edinson Volquez for Curtis Granderson and two of Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman and Manny Banuelos.

For the Yankees, they address the rotation and the pen while opening a spot in the OF. Gardner moves to CF and LF becomes available as a possible spot for Jesus Montero or a signing of a guy like Magglio Ordonez. The Reds cut some dollars while balancing/fixing the line-up and adding a huge upgrade. The team would have money for Rhodes or another reliever to help in the pen and two more depth options behind the Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake rotation (a guy like Nova might beat out Leake for the 5th spot). Chapman would close with Masset and whoever they could sign setting up. I've been a Volquez supporter and recognize that he may have the potential to be the best of the bunch, but I've become a skeptic lately and have serious doubts about him. The Reds would probably still have the money and, with Leake and two arms from the Yankees top prospect group, enough depth of valued pitching prospects to add a rental TOR arm at the deadline.

Been thinking the same about Volquez to the Yankees. But I'd rather have Gardner than Granderson. Do they still have Swisher? He'd also be an option. Volquez for Swisher and cash? Gardner and Nova for Volquez? I doubt anyone is interested in Coco at this point.

jojo
12-15-2010, 07:35 AM
The Yanks like guys with track records. I'm skeptical that they'd panic into Volquez.

I(heart)Freel
12-15-2010, 07:45 AM
Volquez is a really good fit. His pending arbitration years don't scare the Yankees. This *could* be the way to solve LF for the Reds.

I simply don't see Coco being moved this off-season. Maybe in spring when another closer goes down and someone gets desperate. But not now.

mth123
12-15-2010, 07:52 AM
Yankees bullpen was brutal in the post season, They may prefer one year of Cordero to multiple years for somebody like Gregg or Wood.

As for Granderson vs. Gardner, Granderson makes more money (its why Cordero is included) but he's a better player. I don't really like the speedy no power type. Give me Granderson's 30 HR potential in a line-up with the incredible shrinking slugging percentage at 3B looking like the 3rd guy for the middle of the order. Let Rolen get on base in front of Votto and Bruce and let Graderson make 'em think about pitching around them.

As for the Yankees getting a proven option, I don't see one that they can get. Volquez may be the most "proven" option out there. Pavano and Garza probably aren't available to them and they don't have the MI prospects to get Greinke. Who else is there?

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2010, 08:17 AM
The Yanks like guys with track records. I'm skeptical that they'd panic into Volquez.

Guy went 17-6, with 206 K's and 167 hits in 196 IP in '08 with a fairly inadequate team around him. Since then he had TJS and hasn't really pitched all that much in that span. I'd call such a pickup more shrewd than gamble. I ain't saying he will be a future Cy Young award winner but he could easily be with that offense around him. But even still he should be pretty good going forward regardless. I don't really want to trade him but I think he makes the most sense for a small market team to deal off and get something solid in return before he starts making big money. I think no matter where he pitches in '11, come this time next year his value will be much higher than it is now.

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2010, 08:30 AM
Yankees bullpen was brutal in the post season, They may prefer one year of Cordero to multiple years for somebody like Gregg or Wood.

As for Granderson vs. Gardner, Granderson makes more money (its why Cordero is included) but he's a better player. I don't really like the speedy no power type. Give me Granderson's 30 HR potential in a line-up with the incredible shrinking slugging percentage at 3B looking like the 3rd guy for the middle of the order. Let Rolen get on base in front of Votto and Bruce and let Graderson make 'em think about pitching around them.

As for the Yankees getting a proven option, I don't see one that they can get. Volquez may be the most "proven" option out there. Pavano and Garza probably aren't available to them and they don't have the MI prospects to get Greinke. Who else is there?

I don't see anyone wanting CoCo at this point. Way too much money and he struggled almost every single outing last year. He had a nice little stretch at one point late in the season but other than that he was pretty much constantly under fire. I agree on Volquez being a pretty intriguing option for the Yankees, heck I think it might be wise to go ahead hold onto him for another season.

Trade them Bailey for Gardner, I'd be ok with adding Granderson but I don't see the Yanks wanting Coco so I don't see how it works. Plus he makes an awful lot of cash for a platoon guy. Swisher though makes some sense to me.

JaxRed
12-15-2010, 08:35 AM
In reality, the guy that fits the Yankees best is Arroyo. They need a solid dependable starter. Now, I realize that isn't going to happen, but he's the best fit.

TheNext44
12-15-2010, 08:36 AM
The Yanks like guys with track records. I'm skeptical that they'd panic into Volquez.

Oh, they are already panicking. They had already picked the date for the Cliff Lee Bobblehead night.

The Red Sox reloaded just like the Yanks did in 2009, and the Yankees' best starting pitcher option right now is Carl Pavano.

They are in full panic mode. They might not want Volquez, but they don't have a lot of better choices right now, and they need a top arm badly.

lollipopcurve
12-15-2010, 08:49 AM
I like Gardner as a target. Takes a lot of pitches, gets on base, excellent base stealer and defender. Relatively inexpensive.

hebroncougar
12-15-2010, 09:03 AM
I was hoping the Yanks would sign Crawford, and then we could back into Gardner for next to nothing.

mth123
12-15-2010, 09:17 AM
In reality, the guy that fits the Yankees best is Arroyo. They need a solid dependable starter. Now, I realize that isn't going to happen, but he's the best fit.

Agree, but it won't happen. Of course, none of this will, but its fun to discuss.

mth123
12-15-2010, 09:58 AM
I don't see anyone wanting CoCo at this point. Way too much money and he struggled almost every single outing last year. He had a nice little stretch at one point late in the season but other than that he was pretty much constantly under fire. I agree on Volquez being a pretty intriguing option for the Yankees, heck I think it might be wise to go ahead hold onto him for another season.

Trade them Bailey for Gardner, I'd be ok with adding Granderson but I don't see the Yanks wanting Coco so I don't see how it works. Plus he makes an awful lot of cash for a platoon guy. Swisher though makes some sense to me.

As stated earlier, I prefer Granderson to Gardner because I think the middle of the Reds order is in trouble for 2011.

But.. I'd probably deal Volquez for Gardner and Nova. If I were as optimistic about Volquez as you are, I'd keep him, but if the Reds deal him, I want another starting option back. I'm high on Bailey and Wood, but they are still question marks in my mind. Since I'm not so high on Leake or Chapman as starters for 2011, I think another option to have as a fallback is a necessity.

I wouldn't deal Bailey at this point unless I'm bowled over and it would take more than Gardner to do that.

As for Cordero, the $12 Million salary won't phase the Yankees. Cordero had 40 saves in 2010 and I'm guessing the Yankees would want a veteran option with some track record before reconsidering Joba as a rotation option. The Yankees may see moving Joba into the rotation as a better option than anything they can get on the market and may want a proven reliever to make it happen. The Reds could oblige and take one of the OF salaries off of their hands in return. Swisher would be OK, but I prefer Granderson's defense and speed and ability to play CF in a pinch. His lefty stroke is suited for GABP. He's owed $8.25 Million in 2011 and $10 Million in 2012. After that its an option. Swisher is less splitty and would probably mash in GABP as well, but he's a significant downgrade on defense from what Granderson would be and the Reds have the guys to hit lefty pitching when Granderson might need to sit or hit in the 7 hole. Swisher is owed a little more in 2011 and there is one less year of control there. I just prefer Granderson (mostly for defense), but either would be a huge upgrade IMO.

Benihana
12-15-2010, 10:00 AM
I'm not interested in selling Volquez this low unless it is for a perfect solution (ie Justin Upton).

The Yankees might be desperate, but other than Arroyo, I don't see us having something they would pay through the nose for. I could see them taking Cordero, but I'm not sure we could get much back- would be more of a salary dump. I can't imagine them trading one of their starting 8 at the moment.

The Yankees and Red Sox are two of the few teams with which I don't see us matching up well.

Scrap Irony
12-15-2010, 10:38 AM
I'd definitely grab Gardner, demand Jesus Montero, then ask for JR Murphy. I'd also insist Cordero be a part of the deal. The Reds have the surplus here and the Yanks are going to need to do something to appease an already skittish fan base.

Gardner would be a solid leadoff option, similar to Drew Stubbs. His defense in LF is elite and his obp would be great at the top of a batting order that could then go:
Gardner LF
Stubbs CF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Hanigan/ Hernandez C

I'd platoon Montero and Mesoraco in AAA for now, with both hitting every day and catching every other. By June, I'm guessing one of them will be ready, meaning Cincinnati can then add either a veteran or prospect catcher in a deal for that ace they need or to fill another need. (Imagine the teams that will line up for a cheap, effective starting pitcher AND a good-hitting catcher!)

Murphy is added to the catching depth in the low minors, sandwiched between Tucker Barnhart and Yasmani Grandal in either High A or Dayton. he has a nice pedigree, as a second-round pick, and could suprise as he moves up the ladder.

Benihana
12-15-2010, 10:42 AM
I'd definitely grab Gardner, demand Jesus Montero, then ask for JR Murphy. I'd also insist Cordero be a part of the deal. The Reds have the surplus here and the Yanks are going to need to do something to appease an already skittish fan base.

Gardner would be a solid leadoff option, similar to Drew Stubbs. His defense in LF is elite and his obp would be great at the top of a batting order that could then go:
Gardner LF
Stubbs CF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Hanigan/ Hernandez C

I'd platoon Montero and Mesoraco in AAA for now, with both hitting every day and catching every other. By June, I'm guessing one of them will be ready, meaning Cincinnati can then add either a veteran or prospect catcher in a deal for that ace they need or to fill another need. (Imagine the teams that will line up for a cheap, effective starting pitcher AND a good-hitting catcher!)

Murphy is added to the catching depth in the low minors, sandwiched between Tucker Barnhart and Yasmani Grandal in either High A or Dayton. he has a nice pedigree, as a second-round pick, and could suprise as he moves up the ladder.

So wait, you're suggesting the Reds trade two of their young SP and Cordero for more catching prospects? Sorry, I'm just not following that logic AT ALL. I see no point in trading pitching for C/1B prospects at this point- none. They must look to plug holes at LF, SS, and/or the top of the rotation if they are going to improve in the next year or two. Anything else is unneccessary shuffling.

Not to mention, the Yankees certainly aren't trading one of their starting 8 AND Jesus Montero for anyone unless they won a Cy Young in the last two years. Volquez and Cordero are pretty far from qualifying for that.

jojo
12-15-2010, 10:58 AM
Guy went 17-6, with 206 K's and 167 hits in 196 IP in '08 with a fairly inadequate team around him. Since then he had TJS and hasn't really pitched all that much in that span. I'd call such a pickup more shrewd than gamble. I ain't saying he will be a future Cy Young award winner but he could easily be with that offense around him. But even still he should be pretty good going forward regardless. I don't really want to trade him but I think he makes the most sense for a small market team to deal off and get something solid in return before he starts making big money. I think no matter where he pitches in '11, come this time next year his value will be much higher than it is now.

I just don't think the Yankees would see him as someone to bank on solidifying their rotation. He's got control issues and has never went 200 IP. He's much more the type of guy a small market team takes a chance on then trades IMHO.

TRF
12-15-2010, 11:06 AM
I don't get the idea that the Yankees would WANT to trade Gardner. They may not worry about money, but they aren't stupid either. Gardner is devoid of power, but I can see him hitting in the double digits, maybe 10-12 a year. he's got speed to burn and a decent idea of HOW to steal a base.

Sure they COULD trade him, just don't know why they would.

KoryMac5
12-15-2010, 11:09 AM
If Andy Pettite doesn't come back than I think you will be looking at NY making a desperation move for an arm. I see them looking at a guy like Grienke first and than filtering through others before they get to a guy (Volquez) who has trouble throwing strikes, remember they already have Burnett who frustrates the heck out of them. I imagine tops on their list for Reds pitchers would be Cueto, followed by Wood. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing Swisher patrolling LF for the Reds, and why the Yankees like Swisher they are not thrilled with his inability to hit good pitching.

NJReds
12-15-2010, 11:19 AM
The Yankees won't panic. Those days are over with the passing of King George. They won't go for Grienke ... he's not an option because of his anxiety issues and he definitely won't fit in NY.

I see them kicking the tires on a lot of guys. They signed Prior and will give him a shot. I could see someone like Dan Haren being signed to a 1-year deal. They might consider Zambrano (that's the buzz in the tabloids today) ... but I doubt it. Joba most likely won't be going into the rotation, either. That ship has sailed.

They might consider Arroyo as a bottom of the rotation guy (although I think he'd be a much better fit with the Mets and their gigantic stadium where HRs go to die). Better chance at that happening at the trading deadline depending on where both teams stand at that point.

If I'm the Reds, no way would I deal Volquez so soon after TJ surgery. The Reds dealt the AL MVP for Volquez, and it's time to see what he's got. This is a big year for Volquez.

Johnny Footstool
12-15-2010, 11:23 AM
Homer Bailey and a lesser prospect for Brett Gardner would be about right.

Dealing Volquez is a panic move, and the Reds are nowhere near panic mode.

Decent OFs are much easier to find than starting pitchers who K a batter per inning.

Benihana
12-15-2010, 11:24 AM
Homer Bailey and a lesser prospect for Brett Gardner would be about right.

Dealing Volquez is a panic move, and the Reds are nowhere near panic mode.

Decent OFs are much easier to find than starting pitchers who K a batter per inning.

I'm far from the world's biggest Bailey fan, and even I wouldn't do that deal.

You said it right, decent OFs are much easier to find. I'd go for big (one of the Upton brothers, Beltran, Magglio, Vlad?) or go with what we have. No need to give up a great asset (young SP) for a marginal upgrade in the OF.

dfs
12-15-2010, 11:26 AM
I don't want Yankee prospects. They leave a bad taste in the organization.

TheNext44
12-15-2010, 11:31 AM
I don't get the idea that the Yankees would WANT to trade Gardner. They may not worry about money, but they aren't stupid either. Gardner is devoid of power, but I can see him hitting in the double digits, maybe 10-12 a year. he's got speed to burn and a decent idea of HOW to steal a base.

Sure they COULD trade him, just don't know why they would.

I agree.

They got a lot of offers for him last offseason, and they turned them all down. That was before he established what he could do. There's even less reason to trade him now.

RedsManRick
12-15-2010, 11:34 AM
Nothing about the Yankees screams panic to me. Will they open the season with Ian Nova and Sergio Mitre in the rotation? Of course not. But Pettite still seems more likely to come back than not and it's still December. Panic is being in this situation in February. Sure, they missed out on the studs in FA for the first time in awhile.

But as others have mentioned, their ability to taken on payroll means there are always options.

Bottom line however is that the Yankees current situation does not really increase our leverage in a trade with them. We're still going to have to give value to get value. As for those suggesting that Brett Garder is merely "decent", he was one of 12 OFs with 5.0+ WAR last year -- slighting edging Jay Bruce (with both guys getting 2 of those 5 wins in the field).

Sure, Gardner is probably not a 5 win talent long term, but if finding an upgrade in LF is so easy, I'd love to see who else people have in mind and what the price would be for that player. Gardner would be a perfect fit on this team. If it took Bailey to get him, I'd pull the trigger. Bailey might be a bit more valuable, but at this point, I'm looking to add wins to the roster even if it takes a slight overpay to get there. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the Yankees said no.

Benihana
12-15-2010, 11:37 AM
My guess is they get Zambrano. Makes too much sense for both sides.

Cubs then turn around and sign Webb and/or other reclamation projects. Hopefully they don't trade for Garza or Greinke, although I think either player could be a mental timebomb pitching in Wrigley.

MattyHo4Life
12-16-2010, 09:19 AM
They are in full panic mode. They might not want Volquez, but they don't have a lot of better choices right now, and they need a top arm badly.

Volquez is a top arm?

Scrap Irony
12-16-2010, 09:21 AM
Volquez is a top arm?

Has been before. Likely to be in the near future.

PuffyPig
12-16-2010, 09:30 AM
Volquez is a top arm?

There is nothing wrong with his stuff, it's potential #1 starter type. See 2009. His command can be iffy though.

I(heart)Freel
12-19-2010, 10:23 AM
Thought I would give this thread a bump, seeing as how the Yanks' fall-back plan for missing Lee had to at least include Greinke.

They have to make a deal, don't they? Nova and Mitre in an AL East roto?

The Reds will likely be brought into NY media rumors/discussions in the coming weeks/months.

Jpup
12-19-2010, 10:41 AM
Anyone wanting to trade for Montero is mistaken on his ability. Sure, he can hit, but he's a terrible catcher and not very good at first base. He is a DH only. The Reds have no place for him. The Yankees and Reds don't match up.

lollipopcurve
12-19-2010, 10:46 AM
The Yankees and Reds don't match up.

Disagree on that. The Reds would like to have Brett Gardner, I'm sure. Yanks need starting pitching and -- now that they've lost out on Kerry Wood -- some strong RH relief pitching. There's a possible match there.

mth123
12-19-2010, 02:16 PM
The more I think about it, the more I think that I wouldn't give up any starter that the Yankees would want for Gardner. Hate to agree with Jim Bowden, but a caller to XM asked him the other day if he thought that Homer Bailey for Gardner would be a good trade. Bowden thought it would be a good deal for NY but a bad deal for the Reds. I'm guessing the Yankees would have no interest in Homer. Maybe Volquez, and as down as I am on him, I don't think I'd deal him for Gardner.

Spitball
12-19-2010, 03:04 PM
Anyone wanting to trade for Montero is mistaken on his ability. Sure, he can hit, but he's a terrible catcher and not very good at first base. He is a DH only. The Reds have no place for him. The Yankees and Reds don't match up.

As the Reds should know, it is wise to stay away from Yankee prospects.

I saw the Trenton Thunder early last season up in Portland, Maine. I was shocked at how poor a defensive catcher Austin Romine was. His mechanics were terrible. With the go ahead run on third and late in the game, I witnessed him reach and backhand several sharply breaking pitches from a hard throwing reliever. Finally, one bounced in the dirt and zipped past his glove to the backstop allowing the go ahead run to score.

Whether he was lazy, untrained, or lacked the body type for the position, it was unbelieveable that he never once shifted his body to meet the ball. Yet, I keep reading about what a great catching prospect he is.

lollipopcurve
12-19-2010, 03:12 PM
Maybe Volquez, and as down as I am on him, I don't think I'd deal him for Gardner.

Check out Gardner's splits against RHPs last year.

Then think about Carpenter, Wainwright, Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum.

The Reds need another strong LH bat in the lineup.

Ron Madden
12-19-2010, 03:22 PM
The Yankees won more games than the Reds last season.

It's Ok for the Reds to stand pat but the Yanks are desperate.

I don't understand. :confused:

NJReds
12-20-2010, 09:21 AM
Thought I would give this thread a bump, seeing as how the Yanks' fall-back plan for missing Lee had to at least include Greinke.

The Yanks, by all accounts, had no interest in Greinke due to the belief that he'd melt in NY. Since Greinke declined a trade to Washington DC, I think it's probably safe to say he had both NY teams on his no-trade list as well.

I(heart)Freel
12-20-2010, 09:38 AM
The Yanks, by all accounts, had no interest in Greinke due to the belief that he'd melt in NY. Since Greinke declined a trade to Washington DC, I think it's probably safe to say he had both NY teams on his no-trade list as well.

Reports yesterday said he would have had no problems in NYC. He was most interested in going to a team with playoff hopes. He said no to the Nats for that reason. Surely the Yanks would have fit that bill. Moreso than the Brewers, clearly.

As for the Yanks having no interest in the best "available" pitcher when they're 4-5 guys are unprovens... yea, I'm not buying it. It's like when I saw a guy with a Yankees shirt on last week and I said, are you wearing that in memory of the Cliff Lee signing that never was? And he said, I'm glad they didn't sign him.

Sorry, doesn't pass the smell test.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 10:14 AM
Homer Bailey would be a ticking timebomb in Yankee pinstripes.

I don't think the Reds matchup with the Yankees or Red Sox for a trade. The Reds matchup with teams like the Royals that are happy to do major league pieces for prospects. That's why a Greinke deal would've made so much sense. If I were Walt, I'd be looking at Arizona and Tampa Bay right about now.

NJReds
12-20-2010, 10:28 AM
Reports yesterday said he would have had no problems in NYC. He was most interested in going to a team with playoff hopes. He said no to the Nats for that reason. Surely the Yanks would have fit that bill. Moreso than the Brewers, clearly.

As for the Yanks having no interest in the best "available" pitcher when they're 4-5 guys are unprovens... yea, I'm not buying it. It's like when I saw a guy with a Yankees shirt on last week and I said, are you wearing that in memory of the Cliff Lee signing that never was? And he said, I'm glad they didn't sign him.

Sorry, doesn't pass the smell test.

I'm just relaying that every report I've heard from every reporter that covers the team day-to-day said that they did not seriously consider Greinke because of concerns about his mental makeup and the ability to handle playing in NY. I'm not sure why that is so hard to believe. Guys a lot more stable than Greinke have come to NY and failed to perform.

The Lee thing is different. Fans say dumb things. The Yankees were probably surprised that they didn't get him, and I'm sure that they consider it a huge setback.

From what has been reported, they will next make a push to convice Pettitte to come back. That would give them CC, Hughes, Pettitte, Burnett and Nova (or some other 5th man option). Maybe they'll make a deal, maybe not.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2010, 11:05 AM
I'd guess Jocketty gets a call from New York. Johnny Cueto, for example, would be an ideal starter for the Yankees or Red Sox to target, as he's about to get expensive-ish, he's got plus stuff, and he's young enough to both improve and keep for a few years.

The Reds may not want to deal Cueto, as he's not cost-prohibitive and he's a big reason Cincinnati fans look forward to 2011.

This could set up an actual talent for talent trade, rather than one of money and suspects for established player both New York and Boston tend to favor (for obvious reasons).

New York may bite on a Jesus Montero (and Gardner?) for Cueto (and Cordero?) deal.

Boston may bite on a Cueto, Cordero, and Hanigan deal for Jed Lowrie and Jacob Ellsbury trade.

Both deals are, IMO, solid wins for the Reds, though they don't come without risk.

The Montero deal would make Hanigan and Hernandez available as early as May and would save cash for a Votto extension. It would also mean Mesoraco and Montero would share time behind the plate (and back up 1B, I'd hope) as a plus bat at either the clean-up or fifth spot in the batting order for perhaps the next six years, a huge consideration on a team that would then arguably have the best lineup in the game for the next two or three years (or longer, depending on what happens with Votto's erswhile extension).

Gardner would be a solid leadoff option that would then fill out a lineup that is defensively outstanding (aside from catcher) and really solid 1-7, with Janish an easy option as SS until Cozart (or another prospect) can supplant him:
1. Gardner LF
2. Stubbs CF
3. Votto 1B
4. Mesoraco/ Montero C
5. Bruce RF
6. Rolen/ Francisco/ Frazier 3B
7. Phillips 2B
8. Janish/ Cozart/ Negron SS

The Boston deal would give more options to the major league squad right away. Lowrie at SS would be a good glove, good bat guy to plug in for the long term. This would allow Cincinnati to focus on 2B and 3B as long-term questions. Ellsbury would also be an outstanding LFer this year, keeping Sappelt as a fourth or fifth OF, along with Gomes. Losing Hanigan hurts, but Mesoraco could provide the same amount of offensive production. Lowrie and Ellsbury would settle into the top two spots in the lineup for the next four years at least, with a lineup of:
1. Lowrie SS
2. Ellsbury LF
3. Votto 1B
4. Rolen/ Francisco/ Frazier 3B
5. Bruce RF
6. Stubbs CF
7. Phillips 2B
8. Hernandez/ Mesoraco C

Benihana
12-20-2010, 11:11 AM
I'd guess Jocketty gets a call from New York. Johnny Cueto, for example, would be an ideal starter for the Yankees or Red Sox to target, as he's about to get expensive-ish, he's got plus stuff, and he's young enough to both improve and keep for a few years.

The Reds may not want to deal Cueto, as he's not cost-prohibitive and he's a big reason Cincinnati fans look forward to 2011.

This could set up an actual talent for talent trade, rather than one of money and suspects for established player both New York and Boston tend to favor (for obvious reasons).

New York may bite on a Jesus Montero (and Gardner?) for Cueto (and Cordero?) deal.

Boston may bite on a Cueto, Cordero, and Hanigan deal for Jed Lowrie and Jacob Ellsbury trade.

Both deals are, IMO, solid wins for the Reds, though they don't come without risk.

The Montero deal would make Hanigan and Hernandez available as early as May and would save cash for a Votto extension. It would also mean Mesoraco and Montero would share time behind the plate (and back up 1B, I'd hope) as a plus bat at either the clean-up or fifth spot in the batting order for perhaps the next six years, a huge consideration on a team that would then arguably have the best lineup in the game for the next two or three years (or longer, depending on what happens with Votto's erswhile extension).

Gardner would be a solid leadoff option that would then fill out a lineup that is defensively outstanding (aside from catcher) and really solid 1-7, with Janish an easy option as SS until Cozart (or another prospect) can supplant him:
1. Gardner LF
2. Stubbs CF
3. Votto 1B
4. Mesoraco/ Montero C
5. Bruce RF
6. Rolen/ Francisco/ Frazier 3B
7. Phillips 2B
8. Janish/ Cozart/ Negron SS

The Boston deal would give more options to the major league squad right away. Lowrie and Ellsbury would settle into the top two spots in the lineup for the next four years at least, with a lineup of:
1. Lowrie SS
2. Ellsbury LF
3. Votto 1B
4. Rolen/ Francisco/ Frazier 3B
5. Bruce RF
6. Stubbs CF
7. Phillips 2B
8. Hernandez/ Hanigan/ Mesoraco C

How in the world are either of those (especially the Yankees deal) a win for the Reds?

The Reds have absolutely zero use for Jesus Montero. Zero, zilch, none, he could not be less helpful to the club as it's currently constructed. Trading your de facto #1 starter for a blocked prospect couldn't be more counter-productive. Montero is at best a 1B and at worst a DH once he reaches the majors. Even at C, he would be behind Hanigan and Mesoraco, at least from a timeframe and defensive standpoint.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2010, 12:35 PM
No, Beni, he's ready now, offensively. He played all year in AAA and hit 300 with 20+ dingers in 400 or so ABs.

As to your claims about his D, I've discussed this before. I think Montero adds much more value with the bat as a poor defensive catcher than he gives up with the glove. He's been much maligned and his improvements have largely been ignored.

A scouting report from this past year by Frank Peliere said just this, BTW. He said Montero would be okay behind the plate. Serviceable.

He's Mike Piazza or Jorge Posada, in other words.

(A guy like Ryan Doumit, who grades out as not only the worst catcher in baseball, but the worst by a factor of three, only loses his team 9 runs over the course of a season. Nine runs. Montero's bat would gain that in a month, if he's kept at the position.) He's a seven or eight WAR player, in his prime, at the catching position.

He'd supplant Hernandez as the primary catcher this or next season, becoming that secondary 900 OPS bopper (to Votto) this team needs. (A 3-4-5 of Votto, Montero, Bruce would be among the best in baseball and one that could stay together for a long, long time.)

And you'd give up Cueto, who's solid, though not yet anythign near an ace. Cincinnati has seven options at starter-- if one would garner both an outstanding catcher and a leadoff LFer, I'd think you would see the value in the deal.

I(heart)Freel
12-20-2010, 02:00 PM
From twitter:


Brian Cashman said Andy Pettitte is still leaning toward retirement. "In a month, maybe that changes," Cashman said.


But also...


If Pettitte stays retired, Cashman planning to fill out the rotation from within. The Yankees have low interest in Garcia, Millwood-types

http://twitter.com/#!/JackCurryYES

Benihana
12-20-2010, 04:41 PM
No, Beni, he's ready now, offensively. He played all year in AAA and hit 300 with 20+ dingers in 400 or so ABs.

As to your claims about his D, I've discussed this before. I think Montero adds much more value with the bat as a poor defensive catcher than he gives up with the glove. He's been much maligned and his improvements have largely been ignored.

A scouting report from this past year by Frank Peliere said just this, BTW. He said Montero would be okay behind the plate. Serviceable.

He's Mike Piazza or Jorge Posada, in other words.

(A guy like Ryan Doumit, who grades out as not only the worst catcher in baseball, but the worst by a factor of three, only loses his team 9 runs over the course of a season. Nine runs. Montero's bat would gain that in a month, if he's kept at the position.) He's a seven or eight WAR player, in his prime, at the catching position.

He'd supplant Hernandez as the primary catcher this or next season, becoming that secondary 900 OPS bopper (to Votto) this team needs. (A 3-4-5 of Votto, Montero, Bruce would be among the best in baseball and one that could stay together for a long, long time.)

And you'd give up Cueto, who's solid, though not yet anythign near an ace. Cincinnati has seven options at starter-- if one would garner both an outstanding catcher and a leadoff LFer, I'd think you would see the value in the deal.

Even IF you assume Montero will be a .900 bat in the majors this year (which I don't think will happen, given the fact that he doesn't even have a career .900 OPS in the minor leagues), you think that the upgrade from Hanigan's .834 OPS to Montero's .900, despite the enormous drop-off defensively, is worth giving up your best SP? Sorry, not buying it. Not now not ever. No interest whatsoever in such a trade.

I don't deal Cueto unless the Reds get a Justin Upton-type talent at a position of need. Montero is neither.

I would, however, trade a Homer Bailey or a Mike Leake, but the Yankees don't have the pieces that would interest me. The D-Backs and the D-Rays, however, are another story.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2010, 05:12 PM
Even IF you assume Montero will be a .900 bat in the majors this year (which I don't think will happen, given the fact that he doesn't even have a career .900 OPS in the minor leagues), you think that the upgrade from Hanigan's .834 OPS to Montero's .900, despite the enormous drop-off defensively, is worth giving up your best SP? Sorry, not buying it. Not now not ever. No interest whatsoever in such a trade.

I don't deal Cueto unless the Reds get a Justin Upton-type talent at a position of need. Montero is neither.

I would, however, trade a Homer Bailey or a Mike Leake, but the Yankees don't have the pieces that would interest me. The D-Backs and the D-Rays, however, are another story.

The dropoff from Hanigan to Montero is much, much steeper than the dropoff between Cueto and the sixth starter the Reds would trot out in his place, IMO. Cueto's a solid starter-- a #3 capable of logging a lot of innings without much damage.

But his perephials suggest that's all he is. An xFIP of 4.26 and a declining K rate may presage a solid if unspectacular career. The stuff that made scouts and opposing players alike stop and stare in wonder is seemingly gone.

Putting, say, Mike Leake (xFip of 4.31) in his place would result in only a couple runs per season.

Montero in lieu of Hanigan is harder to quantify. Montero's numbers across the board are beyond solid: 300+/370+/500+. That slugging shouldn't be ignored. As he ages (remember, he's only 20), he should fill out and add to it. Hanigan's 30 and as finished as he's going to get.

IMO, the Reds could use the boost in offense (especially in the cleanup or fifth spot of the lineup) more than the depth in the starting rotation.

jojo
12-20-2010, 05:18 PM
Even IF you assume Montero will be a .900 bat in the majors this year (which I don't think will happen, given the fact that he doesn't even have a career .900 OPS in the minor leagues), you think that the upgrade from Hanigan's .834 OPS to Montero's .900, despite the enormous drop-off defensively, is worth giving up your best SP? Sorry, not buying it. Not now not ever. No interest whatsoever in such a trade.

I don't deal Cueto unless the Reds get a Justin Upton-type talent at a position of need. Montero is neither.

I would, however, trade a Homer Bailey or a Mike Leake, but the Yankees don't have the pieces that would interest me. The D-Backs and the D-Rays, however, are another story.

I would believe that Montero can be a true skill .900 OPS bat before i'd believe that Hanigan is a true skill .834 OPS bat.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 05:28 PM
I would believe that Montero can be a true skill .900 OPS bat before i'd believe that Hanigan is a true skill .834 OPS bat.

That's fine, but that says nothing to whether Montero will OPS .900 this year. I'm betting he won't.

Taking a sub .900 bat with terrible defense at an important defensive position (not to mention a 20-year old catcher to handle an already very young pitching staff) is not worth giving up what has been the Reds best young starting pitcher. Not to mention, a position where two of your top prospects are already in line to takeover in the next couple years even if your young incumbent who just OPS'd .834 fails to repeat that level of production. My opinion only, but I wouldn't consider this trade for a milisecond.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 05:45 PM
The dropoff from Hanigan to Montero is much, much steeper than the dropoff between Cueto and the sixth starter the Reds would trot out in his place, IMO. Cueto's a solid starter-- a #3 capable of logging a lot of innings without much damage.

But his perephials suggest that's all he is. An xFIP of 4.26 and a declining K rate may presage a solid if unspectacular career. The stuff that made scouts and opposing players alike stop and stare in wonder is seemingly gone.

Putting, say, Mike Leake (xFip of 4.31) in his place would result in only a couple runs per season.

Montero in lieu of Hanigan is harder to quantify. Montero's numbers across the board are beyond solid: 300+/370+/500+. That slugging shouldn't be ignored. As he ages (remember, he's only 20), he should fill out and add to it. Hanigan's 30 and as finished as he's going to get.

IMO, the Reds could use the boost in offense (especially in the cleanup or fifth spot of the lineup) more than the depth in the starting rotation.

I follow your logic, but you're not following through with it. Right now, I care more about 2011 and 2012 then the out years. IMO, the incremental difference between Johnny Cueto and whoever the Reds #6 pitcher is over those two years is significantly greater than the incremental difference Jesus Montero gives behind the dish instead of Hanigan/Mesoraco for the next two years.

Not to mention, this is redundant with the Reds' position of greatest depth in the organization (C/1B).

I don't disagree with the logic of trading a pitcher for an upgraded bat in the lineup. I just think that this is not the best way to achieve that goal. IMO Cueto is probably the wrong guy to deal, and Montero is probably the wrong guy to target.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2010, 05:58 PM
Montero will OPS more than 850 as early as this season. He'll certainly do it by 2012.

And he'll do it at a position that, for the Reds in 2011 and 2012, would otherwise have an OPS below 750 (IMO) without him.

I also think you're severely overestimating Cueto and his spot in the Red rotation.

Brutus
12-20-2010, 06:10 PM
I know I won't get much support for this, but I'll say it anyhow because I'm deadly serious.

I'd trade Cueto for Brett Gardner.

Prior to last season, I wasn't much of a Gardner fan. But I fell you what, after seeing him a lot more in 2010, that kid is a nightmare to pitch against.

He has great speed and is a terrific defender for obvious starters. He'd be a good LF for the Reds.

But despite lacking power, he's absolutely a perfect leadoff solution. He had a .383 OBP last year with a .763 OPS. Plus, he makes pitchers work so much because he's got a great eye at the plate and has terrific bat control. While he's not Ichiro with the bat (no one is), he has a similar approach being able to slap the ball to all fields.

I think the Reds' offense, with Gardner at the top, would be much improved and would be worth giving up Cueto. I've said it since September... it's not that I dislike Cueto. But he's the furthest along in salary and the other guys have similar or higher ceilings. I think it's worth using him as an asset to get a guy that would be perfect for what Cincinnati needs.

camisadelgolf
12-20-2010, 06:13 PM
I know I won't get much support for this, but I'll say it anyhow because I'm deadly serious.

I'd trade Cueto for Brett Gardner.

Prior to last season, I wasn't much of a Gardner fan. But I fell you what, after seeing him a lot more in 2010, that kid is a nightmare to pitch against.

He has great speed and is a terrific defender for obvious starters. He'd be a good LF for the Reds.

But despite lacking power, he's absolutely a perfect leadoff solution. He had a .383 OBP last year with a .763 OPS. Plus, he makes pitchers work so much because he's got a great eye at the plate and has terrific bat control. While he's not Ichiro with the bat (no one is), he has a similar approach being able to slap the ball to all fields.

I think the Reds' offense, with Gardner at the top, would be much improved and would be worth giving up Cueto. I've said it since September... it's not that I dislike Cueto. But he's the furthest along in salary and the other guys have similar or higher ceilings. I think it's worth using him as an asset to get a guy that would be perfect for what Cincinnati needs.
I would do that, too. It's a huge upgrade in left field, probably isn't much of a downgrade in the rotation, saves the Reds money, parts with a player who is likely at the peak of his value, and fills a need for multiple years.

_Sir_Charles_
12-20-2010, 10:46 PM
I know I won't get much support for this, but I'll say it anyhow because I'm deadly serious.

I'd trade Cueto for Brett Gardner.

Prior to last season, I wasn't much of a Gardner fan. But I fell you what, after seeing him a lot more in 2010, that kid is a nightmare to pitch against.

He has great speed and is a terrific defender for obvious starters. He'd be a good LF for the Reds.

But despite lacking power, he's absolutely a perfect leadoff solution. He had a .383 OBP last year with a .763 OPS. Plus, he makes pitchers work so much because he's got a great eye at the plate and has terrific bat control. While he's not Ichiro with the bat (no one is), he has a similar approach being able to slap the ball to all fields.

I think the Reds' offense, with Gardner at the top, would be much improved and would be worth giving up Cueto. I've said it since September... it's not that I dislike Cueto. But he's the furthest along in salary and the other guys have similar or higher ceilings. I think it's worth using him as an asset to get a guy that would be perfect for what Cincinnati needs.

Okay, this has been going on for days now. Can someone please explain to me this fascination with Brett Gardner? I haven't seen him play, but looking at his stats, he seems fairly mediocre. Certainly not worth trading away Cueto or any other starting pitcher. Can someone explain the Gardner love?

~edit~ This wasn't really directed at you Brutus...just a general observation over the past week or so.

Spitball
12-20-2010, 10:50 PM
I think Gardner would be a great addition but not for a Cueto type starting pitcher. I just think Cueto is worth more than a left fielder who figures to have a career OPS around .770.

corkedbat
12-20-2010, 10:54 PM
If I'm crafting a deal with a spurned Lee suitor I turn to the Rangers, not the Yanks.

Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Jurickson Profar, Mitch Moreland would be my main targets.

Brutus
12-21-2010, 05:07 AM
I think Gardner would be a great addition but not for a Cueto type starting pitcher. I just think Cueto is worth more than a left fielder who figures to have a career OPS around .770.

As a .770 OPS guy last season, Gardner was worth 5.4 wins above replacement because of his being a tick above average offensively, speed and defense (where he was one of the best fielders in baseball statistically).

Johny Cueto last year was worth only half of Gardner's value -- 2.8 WAR. Now consider this: Gomes last year was basically replacement level in left field. So the Reds would be gaining (in theory) 5 wins by acquiring Gardner. If they inserted Wood/Leake/Chapman in for Cueto in the rotation, it's very possible they could break even. So the Reds could actually improve their club with that trade by 5 wins with one swoop. That's 95 wins if everything else remains equal.

All that to say: Gardner absolutely is worth giving up Cueto if he does only what he did last season going forward.

You'd be hard-pressed to find many 5-win players that the Reds could acquire that would be affordable.

lollipopcurve
12-21-2010, 07:28 AM
Can someone explain the Gardner love?

Excellent in 3 areas: OBP, swiping bags, OF defense. Visions of a latter-day Rose in the leadoff spot.

kpresidente
12-21-2010, 07:37 AM
As a .770 OPS guy last season, Gardner was worth 5.4 wins above replacement because of his being a tick above average offensively, speed and defense (where he was one of the best fielders in baseball statistically).

If I'm not mistaken, he was THE best defensive left fielder, statistically.

kpresidente
12-21-2010, 07:49 AM
I think Gardner would be a great addition but not for a Cueto type starting pitcher. I just think Cueto is worth more than a left fielder who figures to have a career OPS around .770.

Despite their fall from grace post-Money Ball, stolen bases aren't worthless. Bill James says a stolen base is worth .005 points of OBP. That's nothing if we're talking about 20 steals, but for a guy like Gardner who can swipe 50 easily, that makes him a ~.400 OBP guy. Add to that the fact that slugging percentage for a leadoff hitter (which somebody has to do) is less important, and your projected .770 OPS becomes very understated measure of his offensive value.

REDREAD
12-21-2010, 11:14 AM
As a .770 OPS guy last season, Gardner was worth 5.4 wins above replacement because of his being a tick above average offensively, speed and defense (where he was one of the best fielders in baseball statistically).

Johny Cueto last year was worth only half of Gardner's value -- 2.8 WAR. .

That's a reasonable arguement, but I'm not sure WAR on pitchers and position players is necessarily apples to apples.

Cueto was one of our top 2 starters last year. I think everyone agrees on that.. Whether that makes him only a #3 or whatever, that is inconsequental.

We have a lot of pitching depth, but not much certianty with it, beyond Arroyo and Cueto. Cueto also eats a lot of innings, which IMO is very valuable.

Garnder is a good player, no doubt, but I think giving up Cueto for him is overpaying.

Cueto's salary doesn't bother me at all next year. I'm not worried about trying to save money by dealing him, so that's not necessarily a benefit to me.

Spitball
12-21-2010, 10:38 PM
Despite their fall from grace post-Money Ball, stolen bases aren't worthless. Bill James says a stolen base is worth .005 points of OBP. That's nothing if we're talking about 20 steals, but for a guy like Gardner who can swipe 50 easily, that makes him a ~.400 OBP guy. Add to that the fact that slugging percentage for a leadoff hitter (which somebody has to do) is less important, and your projected .770 OPS becomes very understated measure of his offensive value.

As I said, I would love to see the Reds get Gardner...but not for one of the team's top starting pitchers. Not just no way, but no dog gone way. Not a decent starting pitcher for a corner outfielder with a probability of a .770 OPS.

Cueto and Heisey/Gomes > no Cueto and Gardner

Benihana
12-22-2010, 11:07 AM
The more I think about it, Brett Gardner wouldn't be so bad. I still definitely wouldn't trade Cueto for him (or even for him and Montero), but I might consider dealing Homer Bailey for Gardner and Dellin Betances, their hard throwing 6'8" righty in AA.

First, I'd much rather trade Bailey than Cueto.
Second, I think replacing Bailey with Betances gives the Reds pitching a more balanced timeline from an organizational perspective. In other words, there will be an odd man out for 2011 and 2012 out of the Reds Top 6 pitchers. But after 2012, which is right about the time that Betances should be ready to step into a rotation, the Reds will need a young gun capable of replacing Arroyo and/or one of Cueto or Volquez, who could likely be too expensive to hang onto at that point.

Homer Bailey for Brett Gardner and Dellin Betances. That's about the best I'd be willing to do with the Yankees.

For 2011 and 2012, the Reds could go with a rotation of

Cueto
Volquez
Arroyo
Wood
Leake/Chapman

with Betances stepping in for Arroyo, Cueto or Volquez after 2012.

lollipopcurve
12-22-2010, 11:20 AM
Checking out the Yankees personnel, I think there's very little chance they deal Gardner, unfortunately. They have zero OF depth, and not much speed. He's a pretty indispensable player for them. The possibility probably went out the window when Crawford signed elsewhere.

Benihana
12-22-2010, 11:22 AM
Checking out the Yankees personnel, I think there's very little chance they deal Gardner, unfortunately. They have zero OF depth, and not much speed. He's a pretty indispensable player for them. The possibility probably went out the window when Crawford signed elsewhere.

Don't disagree. One of the many reasons I actually don't think they matchup well with the Reds for a trade.

If the Cubs were smart they'd send them Zambrano for 2-3 of their top prospects (including Betances).