PDA

View Full Version : Projecting Janish



RedsManRick
12-17-2010, 12:45 PM
There has been some spirited debate in the Jose Reyes thread about how much production we should expect from Janish given the full-time gig. My position is possibly the most optimistic of anybody's I've seen. But I'm curious just how out of line I am with the RedsZone consensus.

So, given the full-time job and assuming he keeps it (140+ games, 600+ PA), what level of production should we expect from Janish. No explanation is needed, but certainly feel free...

pedro
12-17-2010, 12:53 PM
.235/.305/.340

TRF
12-17-2010, 12:53 PM
.250 .350 .390 .740

And he'll get many presents from his pitching staff.

westofyou
12-17-2010, 12:54 PM
.235/.305/.340

I'm in that neighborhood too.

Griffey012
12-17-2010, 12:56 PM
I actually voted more than 2 wins, I have not been the biggest Janish supporter, but I have definitely seen the strides he has made offensively. When he came up in '08 he was awful offensively, in '09 he was bad but improved from '08. Last year he had made some clear strides in his overall strength and had a nice improvement offensively.

If he plays 130 games, I would expect about a .250/.325/.375. Somewhere around 8-10 HR's and great defense. I am thinking he will finish around 2.5 WAR.

Scrap Irony
12-17-2010, 12:56 PM
1.5 WAR.

He struggles mightily with the bat, while his glove is solidly above average, but not elite. As a #8 hitter, he's below average. As a SS, he's below average.

But, hey, he's cheap.

pedro
12-17-2010, 12:59 PM
.250 .350 .390 .740

And he'll get many presents from his pitching staff.

I have a real hard time accepting even the remote possibility that Janish could have an OBP of .350. I just don't see any evidence in his statistical history that would lead anyone to believe that's a possibility.

I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.

Edd Roush
12-17-2010, 01:05 PM
I think he will go 260/330/350

remdog
12-17-2010, 01:12 PM
1.5 WAR.

He struggles mightily with the bat, while his glove is solidly above average, but not elite. As a #8 hitter, he's below average. As a SS, he's below average.

But, hey, he's cheap.

That pretty much sums it up for me too. Although, I have to admit, I think his glove is just marginly above average. If he played for the Cardinals he'd be batting ninth. If he had played for the Cardinals in 2010 he'd be on the same bus to Seattle as Brendan Ryan.

Rem

RedLegSuperStar
12-17-2010, 01:12 PM
I'm in that neighborhood too.

Ditto.. Maybe slightly higher average. His D is what the Reds are in love with. I don't think they care about his offense. I do on the other hand. When Stubbs was near the mandoza line.. I thought Heisey should of gotten some starts. I think this club could potentially put together a package for a Jose Reyes. I think you solve issues at lead off and at SS.

I would propose:

CoCo Cordero, Homer Bailey, Logan Ondrusek, Zack Cozart & Todd Frazier to the Mets
Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez, & Cash to the Reds

Masset or Chapman become Closer
Reyes Leadsoff and is your starting SS
Perez is Long Relief or Situational

Mets get a Closer and a Set-up man
Bailey gives them a power arm to the rotation
Mets also get a young group up the middle with Cozart and Frazier

remdog
12-17-2010, 01:21 PM
Everytime I see Janish on the field I get flashbacks of Darrel Chaney and Woody Woodward.

Rem

indy_dave00
12-17-2010, 01:24 PM
.242, .288, .333

Red Leader
12-17-2010, 01:28 PM
Ditto.. Maybe slightly higher average. His D is what the Reds are in love with. I don't think they care about his offense. I do on the other hand. When Stubbs was near the mandoza line.. I thought Heisey should of gotten some starts. I think this club could potentially put together a package for a Jose Reyes. I think you solve issues at lead off and at SS.

I would propose:

CoCo Cordero, Homer Bailey, Logan Ondrusek, Zack Cozart & Todd Frazier to the Mets
Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez, & Cash to the Reds

Masset or Chapman become Closer
Reyes Leadsoff and is your starting SS
Perez is Long Relief or Situational

Mets get a Closer and a Set-up man
Bailey gives them a power arm to the rotation
Mets also get a young group up the middle with Cozart and Frazier

We better be getting a payroll's worth of cash back from the Mets.
Reyes is making $11M in 2011. Perez is due $12M in 2011. They are both set to become free agents after the 2011 season. And you're willing to give up young, cheap players like Bailey, Ondrusek, Cozart, and Frazier for that? No thanks.

RedsManRick
12-17-2010, 01:29 PM
I have a real hard time accepting even the remote possibility that Janish could have an OBP of .350. I just don't see any evidence in his statistical history that would lead anyone to believe that's a possibility.

I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.

His minor league career OBP was .351. He put up a .338 OBP last year. I would call that "statistical evidence that it's a possibility". Not a likelihood by any stretch, but certainly in the realm of possibility.

pedro
12-17-2010, 01:33 PM
His minor league career OBP was .351. He put up a .338 OBP last year. I would call that "statistical evidence that it's a possibility". Not a likelihood by any stretch, but certainly in the realm of possibility.

It was also .306 in AAA and is at .308 for his major league career.

Not all evidence is created equal. Just because I guy is able to draw some walks and get some isolated plate discipline against inferior pitching doesn't mean that will translate against the big boys.

westofyou
12-17-2010, 01:34 PM
Everytime I see Janish on the field I get flashbacks of Darrel Chaney and Woody Woodward.

Rem

Tom Veryzer as well

RedsManRick
12-17-2010, 02:19 PM
It was also .306 in AAA and is at .308 for his major league career.

Not all evidence is created equal. Just because I guy is able to draw some walks and get some isolated plate discipline against inferior pitching doesn't mean that will translate against the big boys.

Of course not. I wasn't saying it was a likelihood. In fact, I said the evidence suggested it wasn't likely. But my post was in response to a claim that there was no evidence of it being a possibility. I think there is some evidence that suggests .350 is possible. Do you disagree?

The statement I was referring to would be more appropriate to a suggestion he'd hit 30 HR or have a .900 OPS. There's no evidence suggesting those are possible. There's some evidence suggesting a .350 OBP is possible.

edabbs44
12-17-2010, 02:28 PM
.240/.315/.340

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 02:29 PM
Tom Veryzer as well

Janish is around 20 Lbs bigger than him and all the other weak hitting SS he so often gets compared to.

Considering his size, his batting eye, and contact rate, his 2010 stats make more sense than his previous ones.

westofyou
12-17-2010, 02:31 PM
Janish is around 20 Lbs bigger than him and all the other weak hitting SS he so often gets compared to.



That should mean wonders for his range going down the road then eh?


Considering his size, his batting eye, and contact rate, his 2010 stats make more sense than his previous ones.

Considering his age it's likely you're seeing the best he has to offer as well

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 02:35 PM
.235/.305/.340

Just for the record, if he puts up those numbers offensively, and his career numbers defensively, Janish would be very close to a 2 WAR player.

edabbs44
12-17-2010, 02:54 PM
Just for the record, if he puts up those numbers offensively, and his career numbers defensively, Janish would be very close to a 2 WAR player.

His career numbers defensively appear to be greatly skewed by a somewhat ridiculous 2009 measurement.

RedsManRick
12-17-2010, 03:00 PM
Considering his age it's likely you're seeing the best he has to offer as well

Has anybody suggested he's going to improve over last season? At 28, if that's the best he has to offer, we should be getting his best for the next few years, right?

westofyou
12-17-2010, 03:04 PM
Has anybody suggested he's going to improve over last season? At 28, if that's the best he has to offer, we should be getting his best for the next few years, right?

Yep.

Yippee!!

Still not impressed though.

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 03:28 PM
His career numbers defensively appear to be greatly skewed by a somewhat ridiculous 2009 measurement.

I could say the same thing about his offensive numbers being skewed by abnormally low 2008, or even his 2009 numbers.

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 03:29 PM
Yep.

Yippee!!

Still not impressed though.

Are you not impresed with what he did last year, or his career numbers? Just curious.

edabbs44
12-17-2010, 03:33 PM
I could say the same thing about his offensive numbers being skewed by abnormally low 2008, or even his 2009 numbers.

Are they really abnormal though?

I am comparing his 2009 UZR to recent other numbers put up by SSs in the league. His number was abnormal to the rest of the league, not his history.

westofyou
12-17-2010, 03:37 PM
Are you not impresed with what he did last year, or his career numbers? Just curious.

I don't think he's good enough to be a starter, I don't think his glove is elite and I don't think he has the stick for 400 PA's much alone 600PA's.

pedro
12-17-2010, 03:39 PM
Has anybody suggested he's going to improve over last season? At 28, if that's the best he has to offer, we should be getting his best for the next few years, right?

actually yes, TRF for one.

pedro
12-17-2010, 03:41 PM
I could say the same thing about his offensive numbers being skewed by abnormally low 2008, or even his 2009 numbers.

It's not abnormally low if it's in line with what he did in the minors.

I also think his defense is a little overrated here on RZ. He's no Adam Everett.

Red Leader
12-17-2010, 03:42 PM
I don't think he's good enough to be a starter, I don't think his glove is elite and I don't think he has the stick for 400 PA's much alone 600PA's.

You know, I completely agree with both statements that you made. I'm just not sure that there is a better option at this point.

Trading for someone better is going to cost the Reds a LOT in terms of prospects this offseason. The FA market for SS's is barren and I don't see an answer there either.

My best guess is that 1) They end up re-signing Cabrera after he tests the market, doesn't generate much interest and then is willing to sign a 1 yr deal, or 2) They don't re-sign Cabrera, go into Spring Training with Janish and end up trying to make a move in-season or closer to the deadline.

RedsManRick
12-17-2010, 03:42 PM
Yep.

Yippee!!

Still not impressed though.

I don't think anybody is getting worked up over mediocrity. But recognizing the difference between only mediocre and true replacement level is pretty important -- and one of the reasons this franchise struggled to put together winning squads.

If you pay like you're getting a 4 win bump but you only are getting a 2 win bump, you can run through your budget pretty quickly.

I agree with you that he's a less than ideal short term solution, not a long term solution and that the Reds should be looking for an upgrade (at the right price). I just don't think trading for Reyes is the right move unless it's a swap for Cordero and pocket change.

Rojo
12-17-2010, 03:48 PM
At 28, if that's the best he has to offer, we should be getting his best for the next few years, right?

No, Jose Reyes is the same age and he's in terminal decline.

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 03:51 PM
It's not abnormally low if it's in line with what he did in the minors.

I also think his defense is a little overrated here on RZ. He's no Adam Everett.

Well then they were abnormally low, because his minor league numbers project to a higher than sub .600 OPS.

westofyou
12-17-2010, 03:55 PM
No, Jose Reyes is the same age and he's in terminal decline.

Odd how that works out eh?

RedsManRick
12-17-2010, 04:01 PM
No, Jose Reyes is the same age and he's in terminal decline.

Well, I've never suggested that -- but there probably is a bit more to worry about with the guy whose best skill is speed and who has had 2 serious leg injuries and a thyroid issue in the last 18 months.

pedro
12-17-2010, 04:04 PM
Well then they were abnormally low, because his minor league numbers project to a higher than sub .600 OPS.

not really. In almost 1000 ab's in AA and AAA his OPS was around .670.

in fact, plugging his AAA numbers into this calculator

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html

gives you this equivalency .208/.253/.304

even if you throw out his 2007 and only include his 2008 AAA stats his projected line is .218/.265/.326

Now even I think he'll outperform that, but not by much.

TRF
12-17-2010, 04:46 PM
actually yes, TRF for one.

yep I think he'll improve. He's at his age prime year(s), he's more of a vet, and batting 2 or 8 (please let it be 8) he should see his numbers go up a bit. I don't see a single SS on the FA market I'd rather have. And now way did the Mets pick up an 11M option on Reyes just to unload him.

pedro
12-17-2010, 05:25 PM
yep I think he'll improve. He's at his age prime year(s), he's more of a vet, and batting 2 or 8 (please let it be 8) he should see his numbers go up a bit. I don't see a single SS on the FA market I'd rather have. And now way did the Mets pick up an 11M option on Reyes just to unload him.

Unfortunately I don't really see any better options either.

I'm hoping Cozart knocks the door down by mid season.

TRF
12-17-2010, 05:29 PM
Unfortunately I don't really see any better options either.

I'm hoping Cozart knocks the door down by mid season.

Honesty, me too.

REDREAD
12-17-2010, 05:41 PM
.235/.305/.340

That's about what I was going to say.

PuffyPig
12-17-2010, 05:56 PM
I have a real hard time accepting even the remote possibility that Janish could have an OBP of .350. I just don't see any evidence in his statistical history that would lead anyone to believe that's a possibility.

I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.

How about the fact that he's done it before in the minors, and came very close last year in the majors, as "some" evidence of a statistical history.

I accept anyone's view that he won't do it, but do take exception when you say there is no evidence.

westofyou
12-17-2010, 06:00 PM
How about the fact that he's done it before in the minors, and came very close last year in the majors, as "some" evidence of a statistical history.

I accept anyone's view that he won't do it, but do take exception when you say there is no evidence.

Well, do echo what is always trotted out... small sample size in MLB and hasn't touched it above AA in the minors.

pedro
12-17-2010, 06:03 PM
How about the fact that he's done it before in the minors, and came very close last year in the majors, as "some" evidence of a statistical history.

I accept anyone's view that he won't do it, but do take exception when you say there is no evidence.

I think there's a lot more compelling evidence that it's an extremely unlikely possibility. Considering his track record in the high minors and in 2009 I think it's pretty safe to assume that last year was an outlier.

I hope I'm wrong though.

remdog
12-17-2010, 06:06 PM
I don't think he's good enough to be a starter, I don't think his glove is elite and I don't think he has the stick for 400 PA's much alone 600PA's.



Pretty good summary from my viewpoint.

Someone can say that Reyes will decline (at the age of 28) because his game revolves around his legs and thyroid but that doesn't equate to the decline of someone (of the same age) that has never done it in the first place.

Rem

TRF
12-17-2010, 06:13 PM
Pretty good summary from my viewpoint.

Someone can say that Reyes will decline (at the age of 28) because his game revolves around his legs and thyroid but that doesn't equate to the decline of someone (of the same age) that has never done it in the first place.

Rem

He may not decline. Can anyone come up with a scenario where the Mets trade him right now?

edabbs44
12-17-2010, 06:39 PM
yep I think he'll improve. He's at his age prime year(s), he's more of a vet, and batting 2 or 8 (please let it be 8) he should see his numbers go up a bit. I don't see a single SS on the FA market I'd rather have. And now way did the Mets pick up an 11M option on Reyes just to unload him.

If he OBPs .350, you would have a major issue with him hitting 2?

remdog
12-17-2010, 06:40 PM
He may not decline.

Who is 'he'? Reyes or Janish?

Rem

TRF
12-17-2010, 06:46 PM
If he OBPs .350, you would have a major issue with him hitting 2?

I think he can OBP .350. I'm not as convinced he can SLG .400. I like a little more pop at #2


Who is 'he'? Reyes or Janish?

Rem

Reyes.

remdog
12-17-2010, 06:48 PM
Can anyone come up with a scenario where the Mets trade him right now?

Can anyone come up with a scenario where Jason Werth signs with the Nats or Cliff Lee turns down an extra $38M to sign with a team that shipped him out of town just a year ago? (famous shrug).

Things happen and the Mets are under new management that may want to 're-make' the team in a form that doesn't resemble that of the past management. (Once again, famous shrug.)

Rem

remdog
12-17-2010, 06:51 PM
Reyes.

Thanks.

I think there are possible openings to the Mets trading Reyes given the Mets new management. I also think that it depends upon what direction the new management wants to go and what a trading partner could offer them.

Rem

PuffyPig
12-17-2010, 07:35 PM
I think there's a lot more compelling evidence that it's an extremely unlikely possibility. Considering his track record in the high minors and in 2009 I think it's pretty safe to assume that last year was an outlier.

I hope I'm wrong though.

I was simply responding to the statement that there is "no evidence".

I way well agree that the better evidence suggests he won't do it, but there is certainly some evidence , however weak, to suggest otherwise.

TRF
12-17-2010, 07:36 PM
Can anyone come up with a scenario where Jason Werth signs with the Nats or Cliff Lee turns down an extra $38M to sign with a team that shipped him out of town just a year ago? (famous shrug).

Things happen and the Mets are under new management that may want to 're-make' the team in a form that doesn't resemble that of the past management. (Once again, famous shrug.)

Rem

If that is the case, why not just let him walk? they won't get near what they will have to give up, and by give up i mean Reyes and a HUGE chunk of cash.

The only thing that makes any sense to me about picking up his option is they believe he is healthy and ready to go for a team that hasn't made a peep this off season.

Mario-Rijo
12-17-2010, 07:47 PM
Have no idea how to come up with WAR. But looking at the numbers I'd say what Pedro posted about his minor league numbers feels right to me. I usually expect a drop off of about .20 across the board from the minors to the majors. I also look to see if there is a way for a player to improve upon his talents/skills and with Paul his skills are/were pretty maxed out when he got up to the pros. He has increased his strength and maybe that isn't quite maxed but I doubt it. So bumping that .20 back up for his improved strength (could be more, could be less) he is a .220 - .230 hitter in my estimation. With a little luck he could be adequate in the 8 hole. When the luck isn't there we'll let's just say we might have the pitcher leading off a whole lot of innings. Put him in the #2 hole (Dusty) and that number should decrease.

Being pessimistic .210/.260/.320 - .580 OPS, Solid but unspectacular defense = less than replacement level???

WMR
12-17-2010, 07:52 PM
Where would you rank Janish defensively amongst all starting shortstops in the National League?

HokieRed
12-17-2010, 07:55 PM
Trading a "power arm" like Bailey for the upgrade of Reyes over Janish seems to me unlikely to help us move toward beating a Phillies team that just added a 4th Number 1 pitcher. I'm surprised how little the Cliff Lee signing has altered RZ discussions. To me, it now becomes completely irrelevant for a team like the Reds to consider marginal upgrade trades at positions where we have cheap young players. All the resources spent in such deals are going to have to be harbored to go after the best pitching available and we're going to have to hope, simultaneously, that our very best arms can be developed if we're going to have a rotation even remotely able to go up against the Phillies successfully. It seems possible to me that a Greinke, Bailey, Chapman, Wood lineup might be up to the task by 2012.

Griffey012
12-17-2010, 07:59 PM
Has anyone else noticed a large improvement in Janish's skills at the plate since we first saw him in the bigs? Or am I the only one. With him being 28 and showing noticeable improvement it doesn't make a ton of sense to use his minor league numbers to try and project his MLB numbers this year. If he went down in AAA he would be a .260-.280 hitter now days.

pedro
12-17-2010, 08:11 PM
Has anyone else noticed a large improvement in Janish's skills at the plate since we first saw him in the bigs? Or am I the only one. With him being 28 and showing noticeable improvement it doesn't make a ton of sense to use his minor league numbers to try and project his MLB numbers this year. If he went down in AAA he would be a .260-.280 hitter now days.

Not really.

I saw a guy who had a fairly decent 6 week hot streak.

Everyone looks good when they're on a hot streak.

And everybody, even Juan Castro, gets hot from time to time.

WMR
12-17-2010, 08:15 PM
Not really.

I saw a guy who had a fairly decent 6 week hot streak.

Everyone looks good when they're on a hot streak.

And everybody, even Juan Castro, gets hot from time to time.

And some guys just look good permanently...

http://thediamondangle.com/archive/july03/tampabay/P975_big.jpg :D

Griffey012
12-17-2010, 08:24 PM
Not really.

I saw a guy who had a fairly decent 6 week hot streak.

Everyone looks good when they're on a hot streak.

And everybody, even Juan Castro, gets hot from time to time.

In '08 and '09 he wasnt even capable of getting on a "hot streak."

Those 6 weeks of the season were also during the 2 months where he was getting regular playing time, instead of 5 at bats a week.

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 08:28 PM
Not really.

I saw a guy who had a fairly decent 6 week hot streak.

Everyone looks good when they're on a hot streak.

And everybody, even Juan Castro, gets hot from time to time.

That 6 week hot streak lasted 4 months. Janish had over an .800 OPS in Augest. Granted he wasn't playing everyday during it, but that makes it even more impressive, and less likely to be a "streak" and instead an actual change in skill level.

And Juan Castro never had a hitting streak with an OPS over .800 that lasted 100 AB. He never had one that lasted more than 8.

westofyou
12-17-2010, 08:36 PM
That 6 week hot streak lasted 4 months. Janish had over an .800 OPS in Augest. Granted he wasn't playing everyday during it, but that makes it even more impressive, and less likely to be a "streak" and instead an actual change in skill level.

101 ab's in august

.261/.340/.375/.715

Not over .800

Hot streaks?

See Dan Gladdens 1984 and 1987, or Chris Stynes 1997 or 2000 season.

they are what they are, "hot streaks" for middling players.

jojo
12-17-2010, 08:38 PM
In 1200 defensive innings (roughly a full season or the equivalent of 600 PAs worth of playing time), UZR rates Janish as a +10 glove while Dewan's thinks he's a +8 defender. Considering what Janish's potential value might be over a full season, for the purposes of calculating WAR, he starts out with 7.5 runs for playing shortstop and +20 runs for the difference between average (baseline) and replacement level over 600 PAs. So accepting the rough estimate of his defensive value, he'd be a 3.75 WAR (7.5+10+20) player before considering his bat. That means in order for him to be a 2 WAR player over a full season, he'd have to be no worse than a -17.5 run bat (wOBA=.295; something like .240/.320/.350).

It's possible that Janish could be a 1.5 to 2 WAR player over the course of a full season provided he could play a full season.

TRF
12-17-2010, 08:46 PM
101 ab's in august

.261/.340/.375/.715

Not over .800

Hot streaks?

See Dan Gladdens 1984 and 1987, or Chris Stynes 1997 or 2000 season.

they are what they are, "hot streaks" for middling players.

Not every team gets an all star at every position. Defensively he's very good. Can he hold up over a full season? Well, I sure hope so, because there ain't much out there on the market.

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 08:51 PM
101 ab's in august

.261/.340/.375/.715

Not over .800

Hot streaks?

See Dan Gladdens 1984 and 1987, or Chris Stynes 1997 or 2000 season.

they are what they are, "hot streaks" for middling players.

Sorry, I meant through Augest.

On Augest 19th, Janish's season OPS was .815.

pedro
12-17-2010, 09:00 PM
Sorry, I meant through Augest.

On Augest 19th, Janish's season OPS was .815.

That's because he had a hot streak in july and up to then he hadn't had many AB's.

Here are his monthly splits for the year. When I look at these in context to his career stats I just don't see a changed hitter..


By Day/Month AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
April 17 2 6 3 0 1 5 2 0 0 0 0 .353 .421 .706 1.127
May 15 1 3 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 1 .200 .368 .200 .568
June 12 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 .083 .214 .083 .297
July 19 4 7 0 0 1 3 2 0 4 0 1 .368 .429 .526 .955
August 88 9 23 4 0 2 11 11 0 11 1 1 .261 .340 .375 .715
September 43 6 11 3 0 1 4 2 1 8 0 0 .256 .304 .395 .699

remdog
12-17-2010, 09:04 PM
If that is the case, why not just let him walk? they won't get near what they will have to give up, and by give up i mean Reyes and a HUGE chunk of cash.

The only thing that makes any sense to me about picking up his option is they believe he is healthy and ready to go for a team that hasn't made a peep this off season.

I haven't followed the Mets/Reyes closely. Was it a team option? Player option? Mutual option. Honestly, I don't know.

Perhaps, if it was team option,the Mets view him as a valuable trading chip. If they can't trade him, they may be prepared to live with it. (famous shrug)

Maybe they think that if they can get a couple of pitchers to fill out their roster (Leake, Wood, Baily, Cordero?) plus a SS (Janish, Cozart) it's worth the trade even if they have to throw some money into the pot. Frankly, I don't know but I (nor almost anyone else) ever thought Lee would sign with Philly.

Rem

TRF
12-17-2010, 09:08 PM
I haven't followed the Mets/Reyes closely. Was it a team option? Player option? Mutual option. Honestly, I don't know.

Perhaps, if it was team option,the Mets view him as a valuable trading chip. If they can't trade him, they may be prepared to live with it. (famous shrug)

Maybe they think that if they can get a couple of pitchers to fill out their roster (Leake, Wood, Baily, Cordero?) plus a SS (Janish, Cozart) it's worth the trade even if they have to throw some money into the pot. Frankly, I don't know but I (nor almost anyone else) ever thought Lee would sign with Philly.

Rem

Team option. from a business standpoint, picking up his option to trade him makes zero sense. From a baseball standpoint, picking up his option to trade him makes zero sense.

The only thing that does make sense is keeping him, because there are maybe 3-4 teams that can take that contract even for one year. And those teams have SS's.

jojo
12-17-2010, 09:12 PM
Sorry, I meant through Augest.

On Augest 19th, Janish's season OPS was .815.

That's a misleading demarcation. During the first two weeks of August he posted a slash line of .326/.392/.500 over a span of 52 PA's. During the rest of the season (177 PA's), he posted a slash line of .240/.316/.351.

That OPS was inflated due to his uncharacteristic streak during his previous two weeks-a sample size that was roughly equal to his playing time during April through July.

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 09:20 PM
That's because he had a hot streak in july and up to then he hadn't had many AB's.

Here are his monthly splits for the year. When I look at these in context to his career stats I just don't see a changed hitter..


By Day/Month AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
April 17 2 6 3 0 1 5 2 0 0 0 0 .353 .421 .706 1.127
May 15 1 3 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 1 .200 .368 .200 .568
June 12 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 .083 .214 .083 .297
July 19 4 7 0 0 1 3 2 0 4 0 1 .368 .429 .526 .955
August 88 9 23 4 0 2 11 11 0 11 1 1 .261 .340 .375 .715
September 43 6 11 3 0 1 4 2 1 8 0 0 .256 .304 .395 .699

Monthly splis are random and really don't tell me much.

But this tells me something:

From Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010, Janish put up these numbers...

.344/.397/.741 over 294 PA's.

IslandRed
12-17-2010, 09:26 PM
When it comes right down to it, I think he could put up an acceptable-with-a-shrug OBP in the #8 spot in the order, but not at #2 as mentioned earlier in the thread. Any National League 8-hole hitter has OBP-padding walks available in certain situations, and taking them has some value. It beats hacking away and leaving the pitcher to bat first next inning, after all. Janish has the patience and eye to work those situations to the team's benefit. But in the second spot? Joey Votto's on deck. Pitchers don't want extra runners on base when Joey Votto comes to the plate. Janish doesn't inspire fear, so pitchers would be coming right at him, and I don't think that plays into his strength.

jojo
12-17-2010, 09:47 PM
Monthly splis are random and really don't tell me much.

But this tells me something:

From Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010, Janish put up these numbers...

.344/.397/.741 over 294 PA's.

First by my calculation over that span (Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010), Janish posted a slash line of .248/.326/.391 in 288 PA's. But inexplicably that arbitrary split contained the 50+PA's from his two week 2010 August out of body stretch (slash line of .326/.392/.500 over a span of 52 PA's) and completely ignores his final 95 PAs of 2010 in which he posted a slash line of .218/.284/.310. If the actual goal of discussing Janish in the context of this thread is to estimate his true skill level as reasonably as possible, arbitrary splits like above should be avoided in favor of all of the data.

For instance, adding in those post Aug 19th, 2010 PAs causes his slash line to become: .241/.316/.371.

TheNext44
12-17-2010, 09:56 PM
First by my calculation over that span (Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010), Janish posted a slash line of .248/.326/.391 in 288 PA's. But inexplicably that arbitrary split contained the 50+PA's from his two week 2010 August out of body stretch (slash line of .326/.392/.500 over a span of 52 PA's) and completely ignores his final 95 PAs of 2010 in which he posted a slash line of .218/.284/.310. If the actual goal of discussing Janish in the context of this thread is to estimate his true skill level as reasonably as possible, arbitrary splits like above should be avoided in favor of all of the data.

You're right. To get the best idea of Janish's current skill level we should include up to the end of the year. And I'm pretty bad at math, sorry for the wrong numbers.

BUt I have a feeling that if you did the math, it would reveal that since the end of Aug 2009 to the end of the 2010 season, Janish OPS'd around .700, which is what I would expect him to hit in 2011 if he were to start. Teamed with his defense, that would make him at least a league average SS.

jojo
12-17-2010, 10:14 PM
You're right. To get the best idea of Janish's current skill level we should include up to the end of the year. And I'm pretty bad at math, sorry for the wrong numbers.

BUt I have a feeling that if you did the math, it would reveal that since the end of Aug 2009 to the end of the 2010 season, Janish OPS'd around .700, which is what I would expect him to hit in 2011 if he were to start. Teamed with his defense, that would make him at least a league average SS.

If I did the math correctly, he had 441 PAs over that stretch (Aug 2009 through Oct 2010) with a slash line of .251/.324/.359 OPS=.683.

If he did that over a full season, he'd be something like a league average player assuming his defense was worth +10 runs. Keep in mind that +10 would make him a top 5 defensive shortstop on any given year in the majors.

PuffyPig
12-17-2010, 10:35 PM
That's a misleading demarcation. During the first two weeks of August he posted a slash line of .326/.392/.500 over a span of 52 PA's. During the rest of the season (177 PA's), he posted a slash line of .240/.316/.351.

That OPS was inflated due to his uncharacteristic streak during his previous two weeks-a sample size that was roughly equal to his playing time during April through July.

Players are allowed hot steaks.

Have you subtracted his cold steaks?

It's why you look at the whole season's stats for a clearer picture.

jojo
12-18-2010, 12:08 AM
Players are allowed hot steaks.

Have you subtracted his cold steaks?

It's why you look at the whole season's stats for a clearer picture.

Actually, you look at his whole career.

pedro
12-18-2010, 12:49 AM
Monthly splis are random and really don't tell me much.

But this tells me something:

From Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010, Janish put up these numbers...

.344/.397/.741 over 294 PA's.

all because of about 100 good ab's during a single hot streak.

PuffyPig
12-18-2010, 12:51 AM
all because of about 100 good ab's during a single hot streak.

Again, hot streaks count. As do cold streaks.

mth123
12-18-2010, 02:47 AM
.215/.275/.325/.600 - if all goes well.

He's a nice solid defender (like a SS is supposed to be to meet the minimum standards), but he's not the defensive stalwart he seems to have the rep for. Most teams have a guy in the minor leagues who can play similar defense while being a liability on offense. Because of that I consider him a replacement level performer who could be had for little cost or replaced by a journeyman from AAA w/o much loss of production (the recent deal of Brendan Ryan for a minor league suspect is exhibit A as far as cost to acquire some one of Janish ilk goes). Not sure how the voo doo in the numbers gets you to 2 wins, but for me, he's replacement level.

pedro
12-18-2010, 03:01 AM
Again, hot streaks count. As do cold streaks.

Indeed. As I think you'll find out if Janish gets 600 ab's this year.

Mario-Rijo
12-18-2010, 10:13 AM
Has anyone else noticed a large improvement in Janish's skills at the plate since we first saw him in the bigs? Or am I the only one. With him being 28 and showing noticeable improvement it doesn't make a ton of sense to use his minor league numbers to try and project his MLB numbers this year. If he went down in AAA he would be a .260-.280 hitter now days.

Not at all, his skills have always been quite good. Solid contact guy who has pretty solid discipline, good approach & mechanics. Maybe one could make an argument for his swing being a bit loopy/long but not too bad. Could be a smidge more selective perhaps but tough to really gauge that at times, could just be the pitching in certain instances. His wrist strengthening program helped him a smidge 2 years in a row but beyond that (and that is increasing his talent base) I've seen nothing.

TheNext44
12-18-2010, 02:46 PM
Not at all, his skills have always been quite good. Solid contact guy who has pretty solid discipline, good approach & mechanics. Maybe one could make an argument for his swing being a bit loopy/long but not too bad. Could be a smidge more selective perhaps but tough to really gauge that at times, could just be the pitching in certain instances. His wrist strengthening program helped him a smidge 2 years in a row but beyond that (and that is increasing his talent base) I've seen nothing.

Actually, he walk rate has gone up and his K rate has gone down each year his been in the majors. BB rate from 7.9 to 9.6 and K rate from 22.3 to 15.0.

But besides that, I've seen a huge change in his approach. He was a steady up the middle, opposite field slap hitter. Around the end of 2009 it looked like he started to pull the ball just a bit more, and then last season he looked like he was pulling the ball a lot more. I would love see the data on that if anyone can find it.

He still didn't seem to have the bat speed to get around good fastballs in tight, but he did seem more aggressive and confident at the plate. At least that's what I saw.

Griffey012
12-18-2010, 02:55 PM
Actually, he walk rate has gone up and his K rate has gone down each year his been in the majors. BB rate from 7.9 to 9.6 and K rate from 22.3 to 15.0.

But besides that, I've seen a huge change in his approach. He was a steady up the middle, opposite field slap hitter. Around the end of 2009 it looked like he started to pull the ball just a bit more, and then last season he looked like he was pulling the ball a lot more. I would love see the data on that if anyone can find it.

He still didn't seem to have the bat speed to get around good fastballs in tight, but he did seem more aggressive and confident at the plate. At least that's what I saw.

Thanks for doing the analysis I was too lazy too look up. I couldn't have explained it better.

I know last season when he was on his "hot streak" he was pulling a lot of balls down the left field line for doubles. His hands have gotten quicker, allowing him to capitalize on mediocre pitching. His is always going to be overmatched by good pitching, but if he can hit decently against the rest of the pitchers he should be alright.

Mario-Rijo
12-18-2010, 03:16 PM
Actually, he walk rate has gone up and his K rate has gone down each year his been in the majors. BB rate from 7.9 to 9.6 and K rate from 22.3 to 15.0.

But besides that, I've seen a huge change in his approach. He was a steady up the middle, opposite field slap hitter. Around the end of 2009 it looked like he started to pull the ball just a bit more, and then last season he looked like he was pulling the ball a lot more. I would love see the data on that if anyone can find it.

He still didn't seem to have the bat speed to get around good fastballs in tight, but he did seem more aggressive and confident at the plate. At least that's what I saw.

Well I guess I see any movement in K or BB rate as a natural progression for a guy with the requisite skills. Just having more experience IMO changes that for him.

As far as his approach I'm not sure that isn't a by product of his strengthening program and again experience. The original question had to do with an improvement in skills, so maybe I'm just being a bit nit picky but to me there is a big difference between skills and talent. And I haven't seen anything different in the skill area.

TheNext44
12-18-2010, 04:41 PM
Well I guess I see any movement in K or BB rate as a natural progression for a guy with the requisite skills. Just having more experience IMO changes that for him.

As far as his approach I'm not sure that isn't a by product of his strengthening program and again experience. The original question had to do with an improvement in skills, so maybe I'm just being a bit nit picky but to me there is a big difference between skills and talent. And I haven't seen anything different in the skill area.

You are right, his skills have stayed the same for the most part. But I think he has become a different type of hitter. I'm not sure he'll be a better hitter giong forward, we have to see how pitchers adjusst to him and how he adjusts to them.

Griffey012
12-18-2010, 07:22 PM
Well I guess I see any movement in K or BB rate as a natural progression for a guy with the requisite skills. Just having more experience IMO changes that for him.

As far as his approach I'm not sure that isn't a by product of his strengthening program and again experience. The original question had to do with an improvement in skills, so maybe I'm just being a bit nit picky but to me there is a big difference between skills and talent. And I haven't seen anything different in the skill area.

I guess I should not have used the word skills, simply put I meant Janish has become a player that can produce much better results at the plate than he was able to when he first hit the big leagues.

Roy Tucker
12-19-2010, 01:17 PM
I'd like to see the Reds re-sign Cabrera and then have Janish and Cabrera swap roles from last year. Give Janish a couple months are starting SS at the start of the season when all teams are still giving it their all and see what he can do.

If he hangs around .650 OPS, I'll be happy. If not, Cabrera can probably do that with the stick but less range defensively.

Island Red made a good point about batting him #8. He'll adequately fill a slot there with a few gimme BBs to pump up his OBP. If you bat him #2, he'll get exposed like all get-out and sink like a battleship.

I'd like to be more optimistic about Janish but I don't think he has the minor league stats to back up that optimism. He's had a hot streak or 2 which is good, but I wouldn't want to bet my house payment on it.

Griffey012
12-19-2010, 03:40 PM
I'd like to see the Reds re-sign Cabrera and then have Janish and Cabrera swap roles from last year. Give Janish a couple months are starting SS at the start of the season when all teams are still giving it their all and see what he can do.

If he hangs around .650 OPS, I'll be happy. If not, Cabrera can probably do that with the stick but less range defensively.

Island Red made a good point about batting him #8. He'll adequately fill a slot there with a few gimme BBs to pump up his OBP. If you bat him #2, he'll get exposed like all get-out and sink like a battleship.

I'd like to be more optimistic about Janish but I don't think he has the minor league stats to back up that optimism. He's had a hot streak or 2 which is good, but I wouldn't want to bet my house payment on it.

I like your theory on Janish and Cabrera, but I'd rather bring in Renteria instead of OC back. Renteria offers a more offensively, both are pretty pedestrian on defense. Plus Renteria is coming off some injuries this past season, so I doubt he is expecting to be a full time starter, I believe OC still wants to be and sees himself as a starter.

bucksfan2
12-20-2010, 11:12 AM
I am not at all confident in Janish as the starting SS for the Reds. I think his D is a little bit over rated and am not sold on his offense one bit. He did better this year that I thought he would, but I think that may change when he plays more and pitchers get a better read on him.

If the Reds get a better option for LF or some minor league prospect blows up then I am find with Janish at SS. If he his hitting #2 for the Reds I think the Reds will have issues.

As for the original question I think Janish will be a boarder line average to below average SS next season. His WAR will probably be higher because of poor defensive ratings.

edabbs44
04-18-2011, 03:41 PM
So Paul's pre-2010 OPS called. He wants everyone to know that he is back. Just kidding...kind of.

Currently sitting at a .313/.327/.333 line with a raging .366 BABIP. 3 for his last 22 after collecting 12 hits in his first 6 games. 1 XBH in 48 ABs with 1 every 12 and 13 ABs in 2009 and 2010, respectively.

Added to that, IMO, is that he hasn't looked that great at the plate. Doesn't seem like he has just been running into some bad luck.

Thoughts on Paul? Is it a SSS? Was last year's jump into respectibility a mirage? Somewhere in the middle? What are your thoughts?

westofyou
04-18-2011, 03:44 PM
His game is his glove.

If he hits .235 with that sort of pop and BB rate he'll be sitting.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2011, 03:44 PM
Janish is playing some excellent defense. Definitely an upgrade over what we had last season.

edabbs44
04-18-2011, 03:46 PM
Janish is playing some excellent defense. Definitely an upgrade over what we had last season.

But if he hits more like pre-2010 than 2010, is that enough?

757690
04-18-2011, 05:08 PM
So Paul's pre-2010 OPS called. He wants everyone to know that he is back. Just kidding...kind of.

Currently sitting at a .313/.327/.333 line with a raging .366 BABIP. 3 for his last 22 after collecting 12 hits in his first 6 games. 1 XBH in 48 ABs with 1 every 12 and 13 ABs in 2009 and 2010, respectively.

Added to that, IMO, is that he hasn't looked that great at the plate. Doesn't seem like he has just been running into some bad luck.

Thoughts on Paul? Is it a SSS? Was last year's jump into respectibility a mirage? Somewhere in the middle? What are your thoughts?

Well, ignoring that stats this early are pretty meaningless, he actually is hitting much better than he did pre-2010. His low OBP is due to the fact that he only has one walk.

Unless he and Gomes had a Freaky Friday incident where their batting eyes switched places, it's likely that his 2% walk rate will improve to his career 9%. If that happened, his OPS would be .741. Adjust his BABIP to his career average, and his OPS would be .700.

I think it's hard to say he has looked bad at the plate when he's hitting .313, with a .366 BABIP and a 25% LD rate. If anything, he has looked much better at the plate than expected, imo.

westofyou
04-18-2011, 05:15 PM
Pitches Seen 186
Taken 97
Swung At 89
Missed 11
In play 44
Fouled 34

When you foul off almost as many as you put in play then you're not hitting well.

edabbs44
04-18-2011, 05:42 PM
Well, ignoring that stats this early are pretty meaningless, he actually is hitting much better than he did pre-2010. His low OBP is due to the fact that he only has one walk.

Unless he and Gomes had a Freaky Friday incident where their batting eyes switched places, it's likely that his 2% walk rate will improve to his career 9%. If that happened, his OPS would be .741. Adjust his BABIP to his career average, and his OPS would be .700.

I think it's hard to say he has looked bad at the plate when he's hitting .313, with a .366 BABIP and a 25% LD rate. If anything, he has looked much better at the plate than expected, imo.

I just see a lot of weakly hit balls. Nothing driven.

IslandRed
04-18-2011, 06:19 PM
Well, ignoring that stats this early are pretty meaningless, he actually is hitting much better than he did pre-2010. His low OBP is due to the fact that he only has one walk.

Unless he and Gomes had a Freaky Friday incident where their batting eyes switched places, it's likely that his 2% walk rate will improve to his career 9%. If that happened, his OPS would be .741. Adjust his BABIP to his career average, and his OPS would be .700.

I think it's hard to say he has looked bad at the plate when he's hitting .313, with a .366 BABIP and a 25% LD rate. If anything, he has looked much better at the plate than expected, imo.

The walk rate will go up... but. Unless he starts putting some more charge in the ball, he won't be drawing many free passes that aren't of the OBP-propping-but-relatively-empty "bases empty, two outs, pitcher up next, no sense giving you something to hit" variety.

RedsManRick
04-18-2011, 08:19 PM
In the FWIW department, Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR to date (BP at 0.4). Obviously the sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of prediction. However, if he were to merely keep this up, we're looking at an above average player.

Great defending SS who can merely hit at a replacement level are harder to find than might imagine.

That said, he's certainly not doing anything to hold off Cozart, should he show well in AAA.

jojo
04-18-2011, 09:17 PM
In the FWIW department, Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR to date (BP at 0.4). Obviously the sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of prediction. However, if he were to merely keep this up, we're looking at an above average player.

That's based upon a UZR that equates to a UZR/150=50. In other words, sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of anything.

edabbs44
04-18-2011, 10:00 PM
In the FWIW department, Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR to date (BP at 0.4). Obviously the sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of prediction. However, if he were to merely keep this up, we're looking at an above average player.

Great defending SS who can merely hit at a replacement level are harder to find than might imagine.

That said, he's certainly not doing anything to hold off Cozart, should he show well in AAA.

That's called playing games with the numbers.

RedsManRick
04-18-2011, 11:55 PM
That's based upon a UZR that equates to a UZR/150=50. In other words, sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of anything.

I believe the term is reductio ad absurdem or something like that. Yes, the numbers are meaningless.

The offensive numbers are just marginally more predictive than the defensive ones. What's happened so far this year is just more 50 PA on top of what we already knew.

edabbs44
05-21-2011, 03:16 PM
A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

Thoughts?

alloverjr
05-21-2011, 03:24 PM
A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

Thoughts?

I don't think the org has the desire to part with the prospects it would take to significantly upgrade the SS position. While Janish has been bad the team could probably live with him in the 8th spot if the hole in LF is addressed. Similarly, I think they could live with a replacement level LF if SS was upgraded. Both would be awesome but I think 1 has to be changed and I think LF is the most low cost alternative right now.

VR
05-21-2011, 03:40 PM
A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

Thoughts?

His injury set him back, but batting him 2nd is a major disservice to the team, and Paul. Just pathetic. Bat him 8th where he doesn't have the pressure to produce....and can plunk away and gain confidence.

HokieRed
05-21-2011, 03:52 PM
A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

Thoughts?

Here's my thought: he needs to do .675 to be carried as the starter.

Puffy
05-21-2011, 03:56 PM
His injury set him back, but batting him 2nd is a major disservice to the team, and Paul. Just pathetic. Bat him 8th where he doesn't have the pressure to produce....and can plunk away and gain confidence.

How exactly was batting Paul second a disservice to him?? I understand it was a disservice to the team, but to him? He got to hit in front of Votto. Meaning fastballs, fastballs, fastballs. If there was ever a way to get out of a "slump" its by seeing fastballs.

As for Janish and this poll, this is always what Janish was. Dude didn't hit in college, didn't hit in the minors and isn't going to consistently hit up here. For the slash line he has now he better be Ozzie Smith with the glove and the baserunning to be contributing.

757690
05-21-2011, 04:08 PM
A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

Thoughts?

Janish has hit very close to his career numbers in every category except two big ones, walks and HR. He's hit zero home runs so far this year.

Maybe he won't hit any home runs this year, but that is unlikely. And his walk rate is creeping up towards his career average, so it's not crazy to think that he'll end up there.

If he keeps his single and double totals the same, walks his career average and hits just 5 HR's this year, which would be his career average, he'll OPS .638.

And he's currently in a bad streak. If I did the same thing right when he hurt himself, his OPS would project to over .725.

I'm sticking with my projection of im OPS'ing around .650 and being a decent 2-3 win player when you factor in his defense.

Patrick Bateman
05-21-2011, 07:30 PM
I'm sticking with my projection of im OPS'ing around .650 and being a decent 2-3 win player when you factor in his defense.


That makes no sense.

Really, your suggesting that he's actually a better player than you did before the season.

He's done worse than you originally thought. From here if he hits his projection he's still behind your projected eight ball. It's hard to suggest he's a better player than he was at the beginning of the season. At no point has he looked like a .750 OPS guy.

757690
05-21-2011, 07:38 PM
That makes no sense.

Really, your suggesting that he's actually a better player than you did before the season.

He's done worse than you originally thought. From here if he hits his projection he's still behind your projected eight ball. It's hard to suggest he's a better player than he was at the beginning of the season. At no point has he looked like a .750 OPS guy.

:confused:

Sorry, I really don't understand what you are saying.

I projected that Janish would OPS around .650 for the season. I still think he can and will end up there.

What did I say in the previous post that contradicted that? I never said he was an .750 OPS guy.

Patrick Bateman
05-21-2011, 07:49 PM
:confused:

Sorry, I really don't understand what you are saying.

I projected that Janish would OPS around .650 for the season. I still think he can and will end up there.

What did I say in the previous post that contradicted that? I never said he was an .750 OPS guy.

What I am saying is, if you thought he was a .650 OPS guy at the beginning of the season, then unless you think he has improved since then, then you should be expecting him to OPS .650 the rest of the way.

If he does that, considering his poor start, he should be expected to end the season below .650. Regression doesn't account for making up for lost time.

CTA513
05-21-2011, 08:03 PM
The shortstop who is supposed to be able to hit is now down below Janish at .228

757690
05-21-2011, 08:07 PM
What I am saying is, if you thought he was a .650 OPS guy at the beginning of the season, then unless you think he has improved since then, then you should be expecting him to OPS .650 the rest of the way.

If he does that, considering his poor start, he should be expected to end the season below .650. Regression doesn't account for making up for lost time.

I think he will end up at around .650 OPS. Of course I understand that he would have to go on a nice streak to get there. That was my point about him being way behind his career numbers in power and walks. Those will increase so that by the end of the year, he will be near .650.

HokieRed
05-21-2011, 10:32 PM
Stephen Drew's currently at .792, 230 points higher than our shortstop tandem. Question: will Votto put up 230 points more OPS than Yonder Alonso?

757690
05-22-2011, 12:12 AM
Stephen Drew's currently at .792, 230 points higher than our shortstop tandem. Question: will Votto put up 230 points more OPS than Yonder Alonso?

This is where I Think numbers on their own don't add up to tell the whole story.

First, I think a team needs at least one big bat lime Votto's to compete. It affects the entire lineup if you take him out, even if you replace his overall production somewhere else.

Second, I think with this pitching staff, I want the best defensive SS possible, and have no problem with Janish hitting like Marl Belanger, if he keeps fielding this way.

But I like the creativity, sometimes I wish Walt had just a little of that.

VR
05-22-2011, 04:04 PM
How exactly was batting Paul second a disservice to him?? I understand it was a disservice to the team, but to him? He got to hit in front of Votto. Meaning fastballs, fastballs, fastballs. If there was ever a way to get out of a "slump" its by seeing fastballs.

.

I missed them memo that #2 hitters get see nothing by fastballs. Apparently, so do did the Cards.

In his 10 at bats against them.....he saw fastballs in one at bat. ONE AT BAT. Kinda scary, huh? You put a below average hitter in the #2 spot, the pitcher doesn't suddenly have fear in him. They just work harder to get him out knowing that the MVP is on deck. Sadly, it's not too tough.

Not all batters are made to have the makeup of a top of the lineup guy. Pitchers have always pitched differently vs. the top of the lineup than they typically do vs. the bottom of the lineup. Nothing new there.

edabbs44
05-22-2011, 06:49 PM
I missed them memo that #2 hitters get see nothing by fastballs. Apparently, so do did the Cards.

In his 10 at bats against them.....he saw fastballs in one at bat. ONE AT BAT. Kinda scary, huh? You put a below average hitter in the #2 spot, the pitcher doesn't suddenly have fear in him. They just work harder to get him out knowing that the MVP is on deck. Sadly, it's not too tough.

Not all batters are made to have the makeup of a top of the lineup guy. Pitchers have always pitched differently vs. the top of the lineup than they typically do vs. the bottom of the lineup. Nothing new there.

Janish has a .561 OPS hitting 8th this season. And has a higher OPS in the 2 hole than hitting 8th in his career.

VR
05-22-2011, 07:00 PM
Janish has a .561 OPS hitting 8th this season. And has a higher OPS in the 2 hole than hitting 8th in his career.

Greetings small sample size.

edabbs44
05-22-2011, 07:32 PM
Greetings small sample size.

Not sure how much larger you can get than your career, but so be it.

VR
05-22-2011, 08:17 PM
Not sure how much larger you can get than your career, but so be it.

Sorry I wasn't clear on that. Using his .561 OPS in the 8th hole this year.....

Paul Janish is not a #2 hitter, on any team. Opsing .635 there vs. .609 in the 8 hole really magnifies that.

reds44
05-22-2011, 08:20 PM
I say we protect Janish by acquiring Jose Reyes!

edabbs44
05-22-2011, 08:23 PM
Sorry I wasn't clear on that. Using his .561 OPS in the 8th hole this year.....

Paul Janish is not a #2 hitter, on any team. Opsing .635 there vs. .609 in the 8 hole really magnifies that.

Very true, but I'm not sure that the spot in the order really matters. He just isn't a good hitter.