PDA

View Full Version : Joey Votto



Phhhl
12-18-2010, 01:19 AM
Right now, if someone asked you if the Reds could afford to add Albert Pujols, or Carlos Gonzalez, or Troy Tulowitzki or Robinson Cano... or reigning MVP Joey Votto for whatever an arbitrator decides that player is worth over the next three years... I think most of us would be pretty comfortable with Joey.

The Reds are in a comfort zone with this superstar. I have read about people wanting to trade him after this season if he doesn't sign long term as a Cincinnati Red. And so, you are prepared to throw away two years of one of the premier players in all of baseball for whatever chum some large market shark is prepared to throw in our general direction? I don't think so.

There is no need to trade Joey Votto at any point in the next three years, no matter where negotiations lead us this winter. We are fortunate to have one of the best hitters in all of baseball under control for more than a thousand days. We have that tremendous amount of time, plus an incredibly promising supporting cast, to try and win a World Championship and elavate this storied franchise into a better position in the modern world. To write Joey Votto's obituary in Cincinnati at this point in time is the stuff of Mark Twain.

If the Reds just signed the reigning NL MVP to a three year contract as a free agent, there would not be a soul among us who would care what that MVP would be worth in trade. We would only be focused on how many wins he would be worth above replacement, or something like that.

The Reds own Joey Votto for the next three years. That is not exactly a short term proposition.

mth123
12-18-2010, 01:55 AM
Agreed. When he's eligible for free agency, offer him arb, see if he'll return and be happy we had him for 6 years. Don't worry about replacing him. Deal Alonso for immediate help (if he's worth much) and go for it while we can.

Phhhl
12-18-2010, 02:05 AM
Incidentally, I believe this is the same philosophy the Brewers are employing by not having traded Prince Fielder before now. Why trade a player like Votto or Fielder when the chances of finding a single player as productive in trade is so miniscule statistically? Why trade a player like when quantity so rarely equals the quality of the principal in these deals?

The Reds have the best free agent signing in all of baseball in the three year deal they just made with Joey Votto. Jayson Werth will be 34 years old and declining when Joey works his first deal on the open market.

Brutus
12-18-2010, 04:26 AM
Incidentally, I believe this is the same philosophy the Brewers are employing by not having traded Prince Fielder before now. Why trade a player like Votto or Fielder when the chances of finding a single player as productive in trade is so miniscule statistically? Why trade a player like when quantity so rarely equals the quality of the principal in these deals?

The Reds have the best free agent signing in all of baseball in the three year deal they just made with Joey Votto. Jayson Werth will be 34 years old and declining when Joey works his first deal on the open market.

I think the Brewers only haven't traded Fielder because it serves them to wait until later in the offseason. There's a better chance of getting a good return if you wait until teams realize their top targets are off the board.

I don't think there's any question they're going to trade him. They most certainly won't get him signed, so it's just a matter of timing it to where they maximize the return.

kaldaniels
12-18-2010, 08:33 AM
Who wants to trade Votto for sure after '11 if no LTC is signed.

PuffyPig
12-18-2010, 09:17 AM
I have read about people wanting to trade him after this season if he doesn't sign long term as a Cincinnati Red. And so, you are prepared to throw away two years of one of the premier players in all of baseball for whatever chum some large market shark is prepared to throw in our general direction?

Why do many exoect that we will have to give up multiple premium propsects (including major league ready pitching) to obtain two years of Greinke, yet expect that we would simply get "chum" for two years of Votto?

Nobody wants to trade Votto, but many suggest that if we can't sign him long term, we should explore what we could get for him, the assumption being we could get multiple premium prospects for him. If not, we go year to year with him and collect draft picks when he becomes a FA.

No one wants to trade two years of Votto for chum. And there's no way we would have to do that.

Mario-Rijo
12-18-2010, 09:22 AM
Why do many exoect that we will have to give up multiple premium propsects (including major league ready pitching) to obtain two years of Greinke, yet expect that we would simply get "chum" for two years of Votto?

Nobody wants to trade Votto, but many suggest that if we can't sign him long term, we should explore what we could get for him, the assumption being we could get multiple premium prospects for him. If not, we go year to year with him and collect draft picks when he becomes a FA.

No one wants to trade two years of Votto for chum. And there's no way we would have to do that.

Well if they can't work out a deal maybe they can swap Votto for Greinke. :cool:

kpresidente
12-18-2010, 09:31 AM
And so, you are prepared to throw away two years of one of the premier players in all of baseball for whatever chum some large market shark is prepared to throw in our general direction? I don't think so.

Well, of course I don't want to throw away two years of Votto for whatever chum some large market shark is prepared to throw in our general direction. That would be stupid.

But what if you could get a top-10 major-league ready, power-hitting, right handed outfield prospect? Sounds a little better now, eh?

We have another 1B coming down the pike. What we don't have is a LF or RH power. "Untouchables" are bad business. If the right deal comes along, make the move.

HokieRed
12-18-2010, 02:58 PM
Agreed. When he's eligible for free agency, offer him arb, see if he'll return and be happy we had him for 6 years. Don't worry about replacing him. Deal Alonso for immediate help (if he's worth much) and go for it while we can.

Does the Phillies' acquisition of Cliff Lee change your sense that our going for it without another top starter is pretty much futile? It does mine, and the only way I can see to afford that starter is to be at least very careful not to trade a cheap likely very competent replacement for our most expensive player.

corkedbat
12-18-2010, 03:44 PM
Hold onto Joey his year and next, then deal him to the Nats for Bryce Harper and a prospect. They love Reds players and wanna spend like the Mets, Yanks, Red Sox and Phils, right? Well there's their chance to double-dip. :D

PuffyPig
12-18-2010, 05:31 PM
Does the Phillies' acquisition of Cliff Lee change your sense that our going for it without another top starter is pretty much futile? It does mine.....


In baseball, the worse team can beat the best team in a 7 game series. It is never futile.

If the Phillies cannot be beaten in a 7 game series (and it might be 5) then I assume they will win 140 games this year.

The Phillies were beaten this year, and it's interesting to note that Cliff Lee lost two games himself in the world series.

HokieRed
12-18-2010, 06:37 PM
In baseball, the worse team can beat the best team in a 7 game series. It is never futile.

If the Phillies cannot be beaten in a 7 game series (and it might be 5) then I assume they will win 140 games this year.

The Phillies were beaten this year, and it's interesting to note that Cliff Lee lost two games himself in the world series.

Of course what you say is true, but also highly unlikely. Most of this is what I'd call denial. The Phillies just raised the standard, and it behooves teams like the Reds to be very careful about spending large amounts of available resources on players--even as good as Votto--where they have very competent replacements.

Phhhl
12-19-2010, 12:15 AM
I think the Brewers only haven't traded Fielder because it serves them to wait until later in the offseason. There's a better chance of getting a good return if you wait until teams realize their top targets are off the board.

I don't think there's any question they're going to trade him. They most certainly won't get him signed, so it's just a matter of timing it to where they maximize the return.

I used to take that for granted, but they have passed on every opportunity to trade him so far. And, they are going to get a lot less for Fielder in an in-season trade in the last year of his contract than they would have gotten if they already dealt him. The way the Brewers are desperately trying to overhaul their rotation tells me that they plan to try and win in 2011, with Fielder as an integral piece. If they are buried by the trade deadline, they'll probably try to get something for him at that point. But, how could they justify moving him with a postseason looming for that unfortunate franchise (historically)?

I like what Milwaukee has done here. The system seems to want to crush small market teams and force them to unload their best players before they should be compelled to. But, teams do not have to cooperate. Any team in baseball that does not have a hitter like Votto or Fielder in the middle of its' lineup is looking for one. This division is as weak and as "winnable" as it has been in many years. Three years from now, that may not be the case, so maybe I would feel differently with the same set of circumstances presenting itself then. But history has proven that it is difficult to win by constantly rebuilding. I say keep Joey a Red for the full three years, utilize his incredible talent and try to support him with as many good players as possible to try and win a World Championship now. If we are so fortunate to accomplish this mission, the payoff could easily catapult this franchise into the upper echelon of this game... reclaiming local regions of the country recently stolen by the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs and Indianapolis Colts, as well as a number of minor league franchises who have profited from the Reds' futility.

The Philadelphia Phillies evolved from a midling franchise only boistered by the size of its' considerable population to a challenger to the New York Yankees as the most valuable franchise in all of baseball by simply exploiting a modicum of success and gambling on it. A broad stroke like that could raise this Reds franchise into the same stratosphere. It is up to us as fans to continue to support this team as it takes its' strides towards greatness.

Now, if the opposite happens and the Reds are talking trade next year at this time, I could think of many lesser targets than Justin Upton. That kid is going to be a superstar sooner than later.

kpresidente
12-19-2010, 02:56 AM
Now, if the opposite happens and the Reds are talking trade next year at this time, I could think of many lesser targets than Justin Upton. That kid is going to be a superstar sooner than later.

I'd trade Votto for Upton and Drew tomorrow.

TheNext44
12-19-2010, 03:28 AM
I'd trade Votto for Upton and Drew tomorrow.

Upton for his career has a combined WAR just a tick above Votto's 2010 WAR.

Upton and Drew will cost more than Votto, and while very talented, have yet to live up to their potential.

I understand your thinking, but I'd rather have a known MVP, than two guys who might be MVP someday.

PuffyPig
12-19-2010, 09:01 AM
Of course what you say is true, but also highly unlikely. Most of this is what I'd call denial.

I wouldn't say "highly unlikley" or a team with 3 HOF pitchers (Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine) would have won more than 1 world series.

In baseball, randomness plays a large part.

Sure the better teams will win 60% of the time.

But when you factor that into a 7 games series, no team is anywhere close to a to win.

HokieRed
12-19-2010, 09:06 AM
I wouldn't say "highly unlikley" or a team with 3 HOF pitchers (Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine) would have won more than 1 world series.

In baseball, randomness plays a large part.

Sure the better teams will win 60% of the time.

But when you factor that into a 7 games series, no team is anywhere close to a to win.

How'd we do against the Phillies this year? Now they also have Lee.

HokieRed
12-19-2010, 09:08 AM
I'd trade Votto for Upton and Drew tomorrow.

I wouldn't. What I would do is consider how much Votto can be paid--which depends, in part, on how good Alonso is going to be, which we won't know for a while yet. Would we rather have Greinke, say, and Alonso in 2012 or Votto and no change to current pitching staff? Which one gives us a better match with the Phillies?

Hadn't see the Greinke news. Obviously Milwaukee's decided to do what it takes. Build powerful rotation instead of worrying over marginal expensive position player upgrades.

PuffyPig
12-19-2010, 09:42 AM
How'd we do against the Phillies this year? Now they also have Lee.

Not particularly relevant as a small sample size.

Pittsburgh, Houston and the Cubs all won their season series against the Phillies.

Should the Phillies fear them this year?

kpresidente
12-19-2010, 11:18 AM
Upton for his career has a combined WAR just a tick above Votto's 2010 WAR.

Upton and Drew will cost more than Votto, and while very talented, have yet to live up to their potential.

I understand your thinking, but I'd rather have a known MVP, than two guys who might be MVP someday.

It's not guaranteed that Votto repeats either. Fangraphs has him at 6.3 WAR next year, with Upton at 4.7 and Drew at 3.0. I'd probably add one of the host of FA 1B out there, too. Say Russell Branyon just for kicks. Then my math looks like this: Votto + Janish + Gomes = ~9+ WAR vs. Upton + Drew + Branyon = ~10 WAR. If it played out like that, you break even over the next couple years, but then you get to keep Upton for longer.

It's not going to happen, anyway. I'm just saying.