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View Full Version : Which SP to trade?



Benihana
12-18-2010, 11:26 AM
Lot of talk around here surrounding which young SP the Reds should be looking to trade in a deal for Greinke/Reyes/whoever. There are obvious pros and cons for each one:

Cueto is short in stature and arb-eligible but has shown the most consistency.
Volquez is inconsistent and arb-eligible, but is coming off injury and has put together the best season of any of them.
Bailey is incredibly erratic but has yet to hone his TOR stuff.
Leake and Wood are the youngest and cheapest but have perhaps the lowest ceilings of the group.

Assuming the return is equal, which pitcher would you be most inclined to trade?

Bob Borkowski
12-18-2010, 11:37 AM
I really don't want to trade any of them, but Bailey, I guess.

nemesis
12-18-2010, 12:26 PM
Leake.

Power arms that stay in the rotation are harder to find, develop and reach the bigs.

Soft tossing RHP are prone to have up and down seasons. Leake's value IMO is much higher in a trade due to 5 more controllable years...

chicoruiz
12-18-2010, 01:01 PM
I tried to weigh future expectations against what value each would bring right now, and I surprised myself by ending up with Cueto.

dougdirt
12-18-2010, 01:01 PM
Leake.

Power arms that stay in the rotation are harder to find, develop and reach the bigs.

Soft tossing RHP are prone to have up and down seasons. Leake's value IMO is much higher in a trade due to 5 more controllable years...

This.

With that said, the return most certainly isn't going to be the same for those guys.

hebroncougar
12-18-2010, 01:04 PM
This.

With that said, the return most certainly isn't going to be the same for those guys.

This. I'd give up Volquez or Cueto to get Greinke. Bailey, Leake, aren't going to bring near as much. Just my opinion, but I'd keep Wood. He's young enough, and great control, and swing and miss stuff.

nemesis
12-18-2010, 01:20 PM
Just my opinion, but I'd keep Wood. He's young enough, and great control, and swing and miss stuff.

Lol. This.

LHP's with good control and enough movement to get a greater than 3 to 1 K/BB ratio is a pitcher you don't move. Still controllable for 5 years and more than likely to stick around after that. He would be the last pitcher in the group I would move.

mace
12-18-2010, 01:45 PM
Leake.

Leake's value IMO is much higher in a trade due to 5 more controllable years...

Except that the OP said "assuming the return is equal."

Of course, that begs another question: Which of those pitchers would bring the most in return?

My guess is:

1. Volquez
2. Cueto
3. Wood
4. Leake
5. Bailey

Which is why my vote went to Bailey. For the same return.

corkedbat
12-18-2010, 01:51 PM
wood may have a lower ceiling than some of the others, but I have a feeling he may also be more consistent - and he's a lefty. I can see him having a Browningesque career. Not saying he's untouchable by any means (I'd deal any one of them for the right return), but I'd like to have Wood as one of my keepers, if possible.

I chose Leake as my first choice to deal.

Captain Hook
12-18-2010, 01:58 PM
This.

With that said, the return most certainly isn't going to be the same for those guys.

I agree and choose Leak as well.

While I'd rather keep Bailey I feel he has had more of a chance to prove what he is then Leak has but for some reason I think I have a better idea of what Leak is now and become in the future then I do Homer.I guess I just value a guy that has a chance to be dominant for a few years then I do a guy that you almost know will have a long career as a useful starter.

Caveat Emperor
12-18-2010, 02:02 PM
Cueto - closest to arb & short pitchers have a history of not aging well.

TheNext44
12-18-2010, 02:04 PM
Bailey.

I don't think he ever gets it. I can see him being a Paplebon or Wood like closer, but I see him never being a consistent starting pitcher.

I value pitching smarts and composure more than stuff once you get to the majors.

Mario-Rijo
12-18-2010, 02:08 PM
Bailey.

I don't think he ever gets it. I can see him being a Paplebon or Wood like closer, but I see him never being a consistent starting pitcher.

I value pitching smarts and composure more than stuff once you get to the majors.

This. There is virtually no way I deal Leake or Wood anytime soon. Bailey is just an enigma and I don't buy into him being a TOR starter ever. But I'm guessing someone out there thinks he might be and that has to make him valuable to them.

fearofpopvol1
12-18-2010, 02:29 PM
Volquez. Has the worst control of the bunch and still is a big question mark.

HokieRed
12-18-2010, 02:54 PM
As the thread indicates, the ones we want to trade are not likely to bring as much as the ones we don't want to trade.

kpresidente
12-18-2010, 03:24 PM
As the thread indicates, the ones we want to trade are not likely to bring as much as the ones we don't want to trade.

Which is why Chapman should be included in the poll. For those that want to win now, he's to guy to move. $5 million/year for a relief pitcher that would probably bring more return than any of them.

remdog
12-18-2010, 04:23 PM
Leake.

Power arms that stay in the rotation are harder to find, develop and reach the bigs.

Soft tossing RHP are prone to have up and down seasons. Leake's value IMO is much higher in a trade due to 5 more controllable years...

Good point. Just like that Greg Maddux guy. Soft tosser, short, can't hit, can't field. How the heck did he hang around? (sarc notation). ;) Just kidding.

Your point is a good generalization. It just depends upon the individual in that position and Leake strikes me as a very intelligent young guy that understands more about pitching, at this point in his career, than Homer Bailey. And, IMO, I think that he will continue to grow his game whereas I don't have that feeling about Homer.

Anyone reading this post may surmise that Homer would be my pick to crate up and move out. They would be correct.

I'm not suggesting that Leake will match Maddux but I do like his approach to the game a lot better than Homers'.

Rem

Hap
12-18-2010, 08:12 PM
Volquez is the only one on the list whom has had elbow surgery.

mth123
12-18-2010, 08:46 PM
Leake is the guy I'd move. Maybe Volquez, but I voted for Leake.

Oxilon
12-18-2010, 08:59 PM
I don't even think Volquez has all that much value right now. Yes, I realized he had TJ surgery recently but you still have to hold that against his value. However though, trading Volquez now wouldn't be too bright considering his value is at an all-time low (since joining the Reds).

Put me in the Leake camp. He's definitely a gamer but I really don't see him much more than a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. That's still valuable but I wouldn't be hesitant to give him up.

Wood is untouchable if you ask me. Within the next 5 years, he's going to win a Cy Young. Book it.

TheNext44
12-18-2010, 09:10 PM
I know this is an overly romanticized view of the situation, but I see Leake and Wood as Maddox and Glavine, with Bailey being Avery.

I'm not saying any of these Reds pitcher will be as good as those guys, but Leake and Wood are the decent stuff, million dollar brains and fortitude guys, and Bailey is the million dollar arm, so-so brains and fortitude guy.

Razor Shines
12-18-2010, 10:59 PM
I'm not saying any of these Reds pitcher will be as good as those guys, but Leake and Wood are the decent stuff, million dollar brains and fortitude guys, and Bailey is the million dollar arm, so-so brains and fortitude guy.

Wow, thanks for laying that out. It's something that you've been able to figure all this out without ever having spoken to any of them.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-18-2010, 11:13 PM
Volquez.

I just don't think he has what it takes between the ears to be someone that this club can rely on. Especially if they ever make the playoffs again.

Hope I'm wrong.