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Ron Madden
12-27-2010, 07:52 PM
Thanks for providing the link, Ron, but I think there is more here than meets the eye.

I think that the article that MLBTR provided here is pretty misleading. For example, they list the defending NL Central champions Reds' needs as: "Lefty reliever, left-handed hitting outfielder/leadoff hitter, backup shortstop, Joey Votto extension" but the lowly Astros' needs as solely "Lefty reliever." I think that the article is not referencing holes to fill in order to contend for the NL Central division crown (the Brewers' needs are listed as "none," yet they plan on using a certain terrible shortstop this year...), but rather parts that the teams are still looking to acquire.

In short, I would recommend that no poster use this article as a litmus test for where the Reds' currently stand in the NL Central.

Yep. I don't agree with the piece, just thought I'd share it with RZ. I Thought it might fit in with the discussion in this thread.

mth123
12-27-2010, 08:56 PM
I think an important distiction to made is that Rhodes was not a LOOGY, but a set up man. The Reds are going to need a new 7th/8th guy with Rhodes gone. And with Cordero not exactly firm as the closer, the Reds are going to need one of the young relievers to step up. I'm thinking the best shot is Smith, but that's just a gut feeling.

Chapman slides right into Rhodes spot. Masset is still here. Arredondo, Ondrusek and Bray all get some time late. Willis and Lecure fight for the last spot depending on whether the team wants a long man or a LOOGY. I actually expect a bit of a bounce back from Cordero. I thought Dusty wore him out in the first half. I'm guessing that Dusty has more confidence in the other guys now and that won't happen in 2011.

Fisher, Burton, Smith, Herrera, Valiquette and whichever starter they might want to use will all be available as well. The pen is the least of my concerns. There are enough guys that anyone who isn't performing can be changed out for somebody else.

RedLegSuperStar
12-27-2010, 09:37 PM
I think Chris Capuano would be a nice addition. Add Fred Lewis to the mix and it's not a bad offseason. Not a good one.. But not bad.

Edd Roush
12-28-2010, 09:01 AM
I think Chris Capuano would be a nice addition. Add Fred Lewis to the mix and it's not a bad offseason. Not a good one.. But not bad.

I agree Fred Lewis would be a solid addition. I see that he was hurt late last year for the Blue Jays and that caused him to miss the rest of the season. Does any one know if this injury will linger into spring training next year? Also, how does his glove look to play out in left field? Does he have a chance of being league average defensively in left? Thanks.

Scrap Irony
12-28-2010, 11:57 AM
It was bunion surgery, not something to likely keep him out of any lineup. It also may have contributed to his fairly poor UZR this season. Before 2010, Lewis was a pretty solid OF, with a UZR of just over average across all three OF spots in his career.

I'm guessing he becomes league average or better defensively in LF.

Edd Roush
12-28-2010, 12:47 PM
It was bunion surgery, not something to likely keep him out of any lineup. It also may have contributed to his fairly poor UZR this season. Before 2010, Lewis was a pretty solid OF, with a UZR of just over average across all three OF spots in his career.

I'm guessing he becomes league average or better defensively in LF.

Thanks for the information, Scrap Irony. Has anyone seen him linked to any teams yet?

I(heart)Freel
12-28-2010, 01:23 PM
Info on the available FAs out there.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/12/27/free.agents/

No Lewis mentioned. I'm still holding out hope for Damon, even though I know it's a long shot. I don't think I want to see Branyan again.

mth123
12-28-2010, 01:47 PM
I'm guessing that the only thing the Reds are liikely to add is a LH Hitting (or Switch Hitting) OF. Of the guys out there I'd rank them as follows:

1. Johnny Damon
2. Fred Lewis
3. Jeremy Hermida
4. Ryan Church
5. Laynce Nix
6. Scott Podsednik
7. Randy Winn

Griffey012
12-28-2010, 02:01 PM
Info on the available FAs out there.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/12/27/free.agents/

No Lewis mentioned. I'm still holding out hope for Damon, even though I know it's a long shot. I don't think I want to see Branyan again.

I'd actually like to see Branyan as a LH bat off the bench, he can back up Votto at first, provide some PH pop, and could probably play some LF and 3B occasionally. I know he hasn't played LF since '07 and 3B since '08, but I am sure he could be Gomesesque in LF.

marcshoe
12-28-2010, 02:03 PM
I hadn't realized Hermida was out there. Rough year last season, but he's still young and has put up decent enough numbers in the past. He'd be a good buy-low target.

Will M
12-28-2010, 02:15 PM
I hadn't realized Hermida was out there. Rough year last season, but he's still young and has put up decent enough numbers in the past. He'd be a good buy-low target.

How about the ole minor league deal with an invite to spring training? The Reds have done well in recent years with this type of deal. Cairo in 2010. Nix in 2009. Hairston in 2007 (?). Rather than overpay for bench guys (who IMO are a big volatile from year to year) I would rather go this route.
They are also easier to 'cut bait' on if they don't work out. Find a LH hitting outfielder & a LH hitting infielder who could play SS and invite them to spring training. Then tell guys like Francisco & Cozart that they have to beat out these guys to make the team.

Now if the team can add solid major league talent cheaply then I am all for it. I just don't want them to pay $2-3M for a player who is no better than what we have in house.

Redsfan320
12-28-2010, 02:16 PM
1. Johnny Damon
2. Fred Lewis
3. Jeremy Hermida
4. Ryan Church
5. Laynce Nix
6. Scott Podsednik
7. Randy Winn

W/o stats to back it up, off the top of my head I'd take Nix over anyone else on this list.

320

Plus Plus
12-28-2010, 02:44 PM
Andruw Jones, anyone? He is still out there, and after looking at his stats from last season, I wouldn't mind seeing him in red...

Edd Roush
12-28-2010, 03:55 PM
W/o stats to back it up, off the top of my head I'd take Nix over anyone else on this list.

320

Lewis has a career .354 OBP against righties in over 1200 PAs. In around the same amount of PAs against righties, Nix has a career OBP of .293. Considering that Nix is already 30, I tend to believe his .346 OBP against lefties last year was an anamoly. IMO, Lewis is a better bet to be a good plattoon mate to Gomes next year, but if we can't get Lewis for the 4 million we had budgeted for Rhodes, I would be down with rolling with Nix on the cheap.

I just think Lewis has a much better chance of helping this team consistently at the plate next year than Nix.

REDREAD
12-28-2010, 04:48 PM
Andruw Jones, anyone? He is still out there, and after looking at his stats from last season, I wouldn't mind seeing him in red...

I was thinking the same thing the other day. Not anyone's dream candidate, but he's cheap, can still hit for power, have a respectable OBP.. Might be able to have an 800 OPS. I have not seen him much lately, but I'm guessing he's a better glove than Gomes too.

On the other hand, he's a low BA guy and similiar enough to Gomes offensively that I'd hate to spend money on him and miss out on something better.

If Gomes wasn't already in tow, I think it would be a great idea though.

Jpup
12-28-2010, 06:09 PM
I'm guessing that the only thing the Reds are liikely to add is a LH Hitting (or Switch Hitting) OF. Of the guys out there I'd rank them as follows:

1. Johnny Damon
2. Fred Lewis
3. Jeremy Hermida
4. Ryan Church
5. Laynce Nix
6. Scott Podsednik
7. Randy Winn

Good list. I also wouldn't mind Renteria for 2 million or less.

mth123
12-28-2010, 07:25 PM
W/o stats to back it up, off the top of my head I'd take Nix over anyone else on this list.

320

Nix is probably the best choice if you want somebody who can play CF in a pinch, but I'm hoping for somebody who can get 400 PAs against RHP and relegate Gomes to the bench. I think Damon and even Lewis are superior choices for that. I like Hermida's upside more than Nix. Nix and Church seem pretty even, but Church at least has some history of regular playing time in MLB at a passable level. Nix is younger and has been better lately so I can see that argument, but I just think he's a guy who would look a lot worse with more playing time. The only thing that keeps Podsednik off the bottom of the list is because I decided to put Winn on even though he's in quick decline in all areas and his career is likely over.

If Edmonds decides to play, I'd put him third behind Lewis and ahead of Hermida, but the Reds would probably have him at the top of the list. I would too if I thought he could hold up, but I'm thinking he'll just continue to decline.

Mario-Rijo
12-28-2010, 07:50 PM
I hadn't realized Hermida was out there. Rough year last season, but he's still young and has put up decent enough numbers in the past. He'd be a good buy-low target.

Same here, I think he'd do well as a Red and he can't possibly be expensive. I'd be pretty content with him if not Lewis. Heck if it were me I'd take them both.

edabbs44
12-28-2010, 10:39 PM
If the Reds were the old Reds, I'd be pulling for Hermida. Now I wouldn't want him anywhere higher than AAA.

corkedbat
12-29-2010, 12:20 AM
I've been banging the drum for a solid middle of the order bat LF bat and if that is not possible, then a left-handed platoon partner for Gomes with some pop. I don't think you can go into the season expecting Rolen to give you year-long cleanup-worthy performance. I just can't see lessening run production at another corner spot for a leadoff hitter. I believe they need to enhance the power potential in LF, not lessen it.

Sure, I'd love someone at the top of the order that the will OBP .350 plus, but when I look at the way the rest of the lineup, that would have to be someone at SS. We can't afford less power in the corners.

Having said that though, if they're gonna start discussing Posednik, then Freddie Lewis and Johnny Damon are starting to sound awfully good. I wouldn't mind adding Branyan if he can play a passable LF (I have serious doubts that he can though). I only consdier Hermida for a minor league deal with a ST invite.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 03:23 PM
Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com reports that the Reds have expressed interest in free agent outfielder Fred Lewis.


http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/reds_showing_interest_in_free_agent_lewis/3897568

Mr. January?

Captain Hook
01-11-2011, 02:34 AM
I'd say at this point the only thing left for the Reds to do this offseason is to sign the reigning MVP to a LTC.Get that done somehow and it'll have been a perfect offseason in my book.

corkedbat
01-11-2011, 03:02 AM
I'd say at this point the only thing left for the Reds to do this offseason is to sign the reigning MVP to a LTC.Get that done somehow and it'll have been a perfect offseason in my book.

I'd love nothing more, but I just don't see it happening. I don't think JV is willing to give up any FA years less for less than top market dollars and the Reds can't afford that. I don't see the Reds signing him to an LTC unless a FA year or two is included. I really, really hope I'm wrong.

buckeyenut
01-11-2011, 07:20 AM
I think this offseason has been great from a positioning standpoint. They tweaked their weak spots in FA without giving up anything. They go into the season with a strong farm system and young ML roster. And hopefully, with a little wiggle room in the payroll.

I think now, they go see how the rest of the offseason and season plays out. If something opportune comes along, you jump on it, but otherwise, you wait it out until the deadline, see where you stand and what your biggest needs are, then make it happen then.

Eric_the_Red
01-11-2011, 07:35 AM
They may not have improved their team the most for 2011 in the NL Central, but they improved the most for 2012 and beyond. :thumbup:

bucksfan2
01-11-2011, 09:36 AM
I think this offseason has been great from a positioning standpoint. They tweaked their weak spots in FA without giving up anything. They go into the season with a strong farm system and young ML roster. And hopefully, with a little wiggle room in the payroll.

I think now, they go see how the rest of the offseason and season plays out. If something opportune comes along, you jump on it, but otherwise, you wait it out until the deadline, see where you stand and what your biggest needs are, then make it happen then.

This off season has been meh to me. Nothing to get too excited about, nothing to get too upset about. In order for the Reds to win the NL Central again this season they need to be better than last years club. IMO as of right now here is what I can see.

Jay Bruce 2011 > Jay Bruce 2010. Lets hope so. He can't go through another awful swoon in the middle of the season.

Joey Votto 2011 ~= Joey Votto 2010. Can't have Joey drop off. The Reds will be ok if he puts up comparable stats.

Renteria + Janish 2011 > Cabrera Janish 2010. Should happen.

Lewis/Hermida/Gomes 2011 > Gomes/Nix/Heisey 2010. This is another one that should happen.

Cordero 2011 > Cordero 2010. Relievers can have an awful season and then bounce back. Hopefully Cordero bounces back.

Also having Harang out of the rotation should help this club. They have an abundance of young arms who you hope would develop going into next year. I do think you will see a drop off with Rolen but you never know.

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 09:42 AM
I agree with the last few posts. Thoroughly unsexy off-season that got the job done. This team's depth is in tact and the three holes we had entering the off-season (catcher, shortstop and left field plattoon partner with Gomes) were all addressed in a very frugal manner. I would rather have gone for slightly higher upside moves, but like wheels said in the Lewis thread, these moves are all very high floor moves. Hernandez, Renteria and Lewis are all solid, proven major league guys that are above replacement level. If this penny pinching pays off in a Joey Votto 5+ year extension, I would have to say Walt gets an A+ for this off-season.

A Votto extension now has to be Walt's top priority with possibly obtaining a solid lefty reliever as priority number two. I hope we can acquire a lefty reliever so we don't have to rely on Willis and Chapman can start out in the AAA rotation.

Will M
01-11-2011, 11:01 AM
Walt's offseason:
Ramon Hernandez (2.6 WAR in 2010) - one year at $3M.
Migueal Cairo (0.9 WAR in 2010) - two years at $1M/year.
Edgar Renteria (1.3 WAR in 2010) - one year at $2.1M & $900K in incentives.
Fred Lewis (0.9 WAR) - one year at $900K.
He picked up Gomes option for $1.8M rather than buying him out for $500K.
He declined Harang's option for ~$12M and paid the $2M buyout.
He declined Cabrera's option ($4M I believe) and bought him out for $1M.
He extended Bronson on a deal which I feel was good financially for the Reds.
He extended Bruce on a deal which most folks here really like.
He has been trying to extend Votto.
He signed two reclamation projects (Willis & Hermida) to minor league deals. He also brought back Corky on a minor league deal.

I actually like ALL of these deals. With the budget restrictions placed on him Walt has done a fine job this offseason. Yes he could have packaged a couple of lower grade prospects & gotten David DeJesus (or Willingham or someone similar). But DeJesus's $6M salary would have meant the Reds would have had to fill out the 25 man roster with reclamation projects or kids who Walt feels need more time in AAA (Mes, Cozart, etc). I think faced with those two options Walt chose the wiser path. Now, why are we going with Fred Lewis in left field as opposed to a better option? Answer: the Reds owner won't spend the money.

As to the original question: Are the Reds going to do anything to improve the team this offseason? Well the guys Walt has signed are better than going with the in house options we had under contract at the beginning of the offseason. However this wasn't the improvement I was looking for. How excited would you be if Walt had made the above moves plus two more?
1) traded a 'B' & a 'C' prospect for DeJesus
2) traded for Greinke
The team would be a runaway favorite for the division & we would be thinking about the World Series. Instead we are in a tight 3 way dogfight for the division title.

redsmetz
01-11-2011, 11:07 AM
A Votto extension now has to be Walt's top priority with possibly obtaining a solid lefty reliever as priority number two. I hope we can acquire a lefty reliever so we don't have to rely on Willis and Chapman can start out in the AAA rotation.

I'm not certain that it's a priority in this off-season to get the long term deal with Joey. At this point, it's more important to agree to a contract for next year without the bruising arbitration process. Next year, there's more money coming off the books and that may give them room to negotiate a LTC. They can still explore it this year, but again, I don't think it's essential.

edabbs44
01-11-2011, 12:35 PM
As to the original question: Are the Reds going to do anything to improve the team this offseason? Well the guys Walt has signed are better than going with the in house options we had under contract at the beginning of the offseason. However this wasn't the improvement I was looking for. How excited would you be if Walt had made the above moves plus two more?
1) traded a 'B' & a 'C' prospect for DeJesus
2) traded for Greinke
The team would be a runaway favorite for the division & we would be thinking about the World Series. Instead we are in a tight 3 way dogfight for the division title.

That would have entailed adding like $20MM to the payroll and depleting the farm system. That is a huge, huge commitment.

To be honest, if I was Bob I wouldn't add payroll like that without seeing some sort of commitment from the fanbase first. The team was a winner last year and they saw limited reciprocation from the fans. How frustrating would it be to do that and then hear things like "Well, attendance will rebound once the kids get out of school" and stuff like that?

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 12:47 PM
Answer: the Reds owner won't spend the money.

I never had a problem calling Carl Lindner cheap when it concerned his interest in the Reds, but I am not ready to call Castellini cheap. I think that he is putting much more money into the Reds and looking at it less as a strict financial investment than Carl did. I think Castellini is willing to lose a little more money for the benefit of having a winning ballclub. I really hope he is not refusing to put money into the club (who knows what's actually happening behind closed doors) and rather saving up a pot of cash for Joey Votto rather than spending signficantly for an upgrade at short, left or at the top of the rotation.

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 12:51 PM
I'm not certain that it's a priority in this off-season to get the long term deal with Joey. At this point, it's more important to agree to a contract for next year without the bruising arbitration process. Next year, there's more money coming off the books and that may give them room to negotiate a LTC. They can still explore it this year, but again, I don't think it's essential.


I actually agree with your post more than my own. However, maybe they are saving a little money this off-season so when they do go to lock up Votto, they have a little more in the coffers. I think signing Joey Votto long-term is a huge strategic decision for the Reds and impacts everything that happens to the Reds. They don't want to go out and sign a bunch of guys this year and push the budget too hard and have nothing left to give Votto and end up in a situation similar to St. Louis. Votto is integral for this club going forward and I think the decision not to trade for Dejesus and Willingham needs to be looked at in this context. Every penny counts and we need Votto and Bruce to be here to carry the offense and be the face of the franchise going forward.

Scrap Irony
01-11-2011, 01:09 PM
Branch Rickey insisted that attendance and interest would show the year after a team improves a great deal. That's when Castellini will bump payroll if he needs to, IMO.

And, with Phillips and Cordero coming off the books, he should have a few million to spend, though not quite the $24 million they're owed this season. According to Cot's, he'll have $34 million in salary (though that includes Arroyo, Chapman, and Rolen's deferred monies). Votto'd be in his second arbitration year (along with Cueto, Bray, and Volquez), Masset in his third (along with Burton), and Janish, Hanigan and Bailey enjoying their first. Adding up all of them, you could come out with around $25-30 million conservatively.

Free agents at SS (Cozart), C (Mesoraco), reliever (Joseph), and OF (Frazier and Sappelt) should be seriously cheap. There are a few really interesting 2B along with Phillips (Weeks would look great as a leadoff hitter, Kelly Johnson as a super sub, or Reyes/ Furcal as either SS or 2B). OFers include Beltran, JD Drew, Ludwick, Hart, Sizemore, Swisher, and Willingham.

In short, Jocketty has the Reds set up to add a free agent of consequence in 2012.

Assuming, of course, the fans show up this year.

Will M
01-11-2011, 01:25 PM
That would have entailed adding like $20MM to the payroll and depleting the farm system. That is a huge, huge commitment.




I never had a problem calling Carl Lindner cheap when it concerned his interest in the Reds, but I am not ready to call Castellini cheap. I think that he is putting much more money into the Reds and looking at it less as a strict financial investment than Carl did. I think Castellini is willing to lose a little more money for the benefit of having a winning ballclub. I really hope he is not refusing to put money into the club (who knows what's actually happening behind closed doors) and rather saving up a pot of cash for Joey Votto rather than spending signficantly for an upgrade at short, left or at the top of the rotation.


I actually agree with your post more than my own. However, maybe they are saving a little money this off-season so when they do go to lock up Votto, they have a little more in the coffers. I think signing Joey Votto long-term is a huge strategic decision for the Reds and impacts everything that happens to the Reds. They don't want to go out and sign a bunch of guys this year and push the budget too hard and have nothing left to give Votto and end up in a situation similar to St. Louis. Votto is integral for this club going forward and I think the decision not to trade for Dejesus and Willingham needs to be looked at in this context. Every penny counts and we need Votto and Bruce to be here to carry the offense and be the face of the franchise going forward.

1) i am not sure trading for Dejesus (or someone similar) & Greinke would have 'depleted the farm system'. The As gave up 2 lower grade prospects for DeJesus (and also for Willingham) and the Brewers got Greinke for a reasonable haul. the Reds may have been able to make similar deals & still have good prospects in the system. Especially if we could move the right type of prospects. For example: Heisey and Sappelt are similar, we have two quality catching prospects, Alonso is blocked & if we brought in Greinke we could have moved a pitcher out.

2) no doubt adding DeJesus (or someone similar) & Greinke would have added to the payroll. However, its gonna be tough to win the NL Central with an $80M payroll let alone win in the post season. this doesn't get me excited as a fan. The new Reds slogan "We'll try to win the NL Central on the cheap & then get smoked in October! But hang in there fans. Maybe we'll pull a 2006 Cards & win it all". I completely understand Castellini's position. The attendance needs to improve otherwise he is risking a ton by upping the payroll. However, as a fan I don't have to simply say 'gee Bob. i get it. lets see how things go.' I can express my unhappiness that the team I root for isn't doing everything it can to win. Not only that its playing it quite conservatively. Even a $5M bump in the payroll could mean the difference between a cheapo platoon in left versus a solid everyday left fielder.

westofyou
01-11-2011, 01:34 PM
The new Reds slogan "We'll try to win the NL Central on the cheap & then get smoked in October! But hang in there fans. Maybe we'll pull a 2006 Cards & win it all"


New?

That's been the modus for 125 odd years.

RedsManRick
01-11-2011, 01:44 PM
Branch Rickey insisted that attendance and interest would show the year after a team improves a great deal. That's when Castellini will bump payroll if he needs to, IMO.

This is what I've always assumed as well. Fans don't support a team that is likely to win. They support a team that they believe is likely to win. You have to establish a credible expectation of success.

If attendance is strong this year, I could definitely see him taking on salary in a mid-season trade if the right one presents itself.

edabbs44
01-19-2011, 01:53 PM
This is what I've always assumed as well. Fans don't support a team that is likely to win. They support a team that they believe is likely to win. You have to establish a credible expectation of success.

If attendance is strong this year, I could definitely see him taking on salary in a mid-season trade if the right one presents itself.

What are your attendance expectations for this year?

westofyou
01-19-2011, 02:39 PM
What are your attendance expectations for this year?

2.3 Million