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Will M
12-19-2010, 01:51 PM
My frustration is beginning to mount. There are several players that Walt passed on due to money (Lee, Crawford, Werth) which I agree with. I also would not have paid what the Brewers did for Greinke. However, there were several guys who where traded who could have helped the team. For example DeJesus or Willingham would have looked nice out in left field. Neither cost the As much in terms of prospects. Neither makes a ridiculous amount of money.

So far comparing 2011 to 2010:
1. We have had several discussions regarding improvements in young players & dropoffs in older ones.
2. Mes will show up at some point. However its tough to expect the catching to be better than last year.
3. Janish & Cozart in 2011 vs Janish (1.0 WAR) & Cabrera (1.3 WAR) in 2010.
4. Walt will likely dumpster dive for a 5th outfielder who won't match Nix's 1.5 WAR off the bench last year.
5. One good thing is that Harang's 111 IP will be pitched by someone else.
Maybe Volquez is lights out. Maybe Homer finally puts it all together.
6. Chapman will be with the team all year. IMO he is likely going to the pen. He'll replace Rhodes.

I am not sure what Bob/Walt are thinking. Even if they expect some awesome pitching out of guys like Volquez & Chapman in 2011 it would have been nice to improve the LF situation. Plus we seem to have surpluses at certain positions (SP, 1B) & a host of middling prospects in AAA. Other teams have been able to turn some of their middling prospects into major league talent while the Reds have passed. Presumably due to being "at payroll".

Standing pat after a 91 win season doesn't seem to be a smart move IMO.

RedLegSuperStar
12-19-2010, 02:06 PM
I'm at a loss Will! I didn't expect this after the season ended and Walt said payroll would increase. They went on record as saying they needed a leadoff guy.. Have yet to get one and now thought is Phillips and Stubbs will do the honors. Just get sick of the wait game when talent was out there to be had. Every team is improving this offseason but this team. I was ready to purchase season tickets.. But I'm holding out now till I see the commitment.

TRF
12-19-2010, 02:25 PM
Like what? There is no SS available. LF is sadly spoken for. Maybe JF grabs LF in ST. Maybe.


I just don't. See where to improve. Standing pat is fine.

Eric_the_Red
12-19-2010, 02:33 PM
They should trade Volquez, Leake, Wood and Alonso for Gardner. Then they could say they "made a move".

Make a move only if it improves the team without mortgaging the future. Otherwise, this is the same team that won the division last year, so the talent is there to win again.

Griffey012
12-19-2010, 02:36 PM
You can't make moves just to make moves. You only make a move if it improves the team in the short term and doesn't hamper the long term. We are not going to add a 13 million dollar player (Greinke). I can assure you that Walt is working constantly to fill the LF hole. As far as SS, we are fine with what we have, there are very few good offensive and defensive short stops around baseball.

Sure I would love to have Brett Gardner leading off and playing LF, but it takes to sides to make a deal, all of these hypothetical moves a lot of people around here want Walt to pull the trigger on are likely not available.

dougdirt
12-19-2010, 02:40 PM
The team is going to improve next year simply by keeping it together. The young guys continuing to improve next season will make the difference. While it would be nice to get that 'leadoff guy', it isn't like the Reds are the only team with a hole somewhere. Every team in our division has holes in it. More than the Reds do for that matter.

Roy Tucker
12-19-2010, 02:48 PM
The team is going to improve next year simply by keeping it together. The young guys continuing to improve next season will make the difference. While it would be nice to get that 'leadoff guy', it isn't like the Reds are the only team with a hole somewhere. Every team in our division has holes in it. More than the Reds do for that matter.

+1

I see several young Reds improving over last season and some new guys getting their feet wet this year.

Their pitching depth saved their bacon last year. I've been a Reds fan since 1964 and I can't ever remember them having the depth they do now. And pitching trumps everything else. Unless its the proverbial no-brainer deal, I'm more than happy with tweaks in the roster and not seismic shifts and lets keep all these arms.

Oxilon
12-19-2010, 03:00 PM
http://cache4.asset-cache.net/xc/98199984.jpg?v=1&c=NewsMaker&k=2&d=EDF6F2F4F969CEBDE210D3491BAB32B9728FD44519544F6C 4295445B0975877C

Will M
12-19-2010, 03:12 PM
Like what? There is no SS available. LF is sadly spoken for. Maybe JF grabs LF in ST. Maybe.


I just don't. See where to improve. Standing pat is fine.

Walt could have passed on Gomes ( -0.1 WAR in 2010 ). Heisey has upside. However IMO its as a center fielder or nice 4th outfielder, NOT as a left fielder. I am not for making a deal just to make a deal. However, left field screamed "UPGRADE ME!!!!!" after 2010. Then several guys who could have filled that void were moved cheaply while Bob/Walt sat on their hands.

I think that the payroll issue is part of the problem. We were told the team was going to up the payroll slightly. Harang is off the books (good). Votto & others entered their arbitration years (bad). Yet it still seems to me that there should be some cash left over (especially after restructuring Arroyo's deal) if the team really is upping the payroll.

I am not for making some deal just to make a move. I would not have paid what the Brewers did for Greinke. However, if the rest of the offseason consists of dumpster diving for a LH hitting bench bat I'll be very very disappointed.

Standing pat would seem a okey dokey move if the team was coming off a 110 win season & World Championship. Not a 91 win season & a first round playoff loss.

Mario-Rijo
12-19-2010, 03:12 PM
Will you are likely to get a massive list of people disagreeing with you so I hope you are ready for that. That said I agree with the disappointment but to a lesser extent because I never really expected a whole lot anyway. If they were serious when they speak about needs they would get it done.

However a LH hitting OF, a MIF and a LHRP are still possibilities. They do have a few open 40 man spots I believe and I suspect they plan to wait out the market to fill those needs.

alexad
12-19-2010, 03:26 PM
We got Johnny G very cheap. I have no problem resigning him. I will take his 80 plus RBI any day.

I think bringing back Kearns is an option for a 5 outfielder. He still can play D Bats right handed though. Francisco will probably see some time in left as will Alonso.

With the speed of Stubbs and one year under his belt. I can see him working on bunting in the off season and create some extra hits thus more stolen bases. He can hit 25 homeruns and still 40 bases while hitting 280, I would live with that. Hitting lead off is hard for a rookie.

Tony Cloninger
12-19-2010, 03:28 PM
Maybe during ST....the rotation will work itself out and the possible odd man out who they do not see as a swing man or the better option to trade.....will be sent packing for what they feel they need at that time. If Heisey shows he is more than the 4th OF....and can take LF all by himself and Juan can show he can play there as well you have a decent platoon possibility or the trade idea.

Plus you never know who might get cut or just given away (Like Billy Hatcher was in 1990 for Mike Roesler and Jeff Richardson)

edabbs44
12-19-2010, 03:46 PM
Walt could have passed on Gomes ( -0.1 WAR in 2010 ). Heisey has upside. However IMO its as a center fielder or nice 4th outfielder, NOT as a left fielder. I am not for making a deal just to make a deal. However, left field screamed "UPGRADE ME!!!!!" after 2010. Then several guys who could have filled that void were moved cheaply while Bob/Walt sat on their hands.

I think that the payroll issue is part of the problem. We were told the team was going to up the payroll slightly. Harang is off the books (good). Votto & others entered their arbitration years (bad). Yet it still seems to me that there should be some cash left over (especially after restructuring Arroyo's deal) if the team really is upping the payroll.

I am not for making some deal just to make a move. I would not have paid what the Brewers did for Greinke. However, if the rest of the offseason consists of dumpster diving for a LH hitting bench bat I'll be very very disappointed.

Standing pat would seem a okey dokey move if the team was coming off a 110 win season & World Championship. Not a 91 win season & a first round playoff loss.

Have they sat on their hands more this offseason or last?

Will M
12-19-2010, 04:04 PM
Will you are likely to get a massive list of people disagreeing with you so I hope you are ready for that. That said I agree with the disappointment but to a lesser extent because I never really expected a whole lot anyway. If they were serious when they speak about needs they would get it done.

However a LH hitting OF, a MIF and a LHRP are still possibilities. They do have a few open 40 man spots I believe and I suspect they plan to wait out the market to fill those needs.

1. I do see that I am in the minority here. Most folks seem OK with the improvement from within plan.
2. Is 'wait out the market' a more politically correct term for 'dumpster diving'? :D If so I agree with you.
3. Unfortunately Gomes/Hesiey/LH hitting 5th OF type was not what I had hoped for in left field next year.


Maybe during ST....the rotation will work itself out and the possible odd man out who they do not see as a swing man or the better option to trade.....will be sent packing for what they feel they need at that time. If Heisey shows he is more than the 4th OF....and can take LF all by himself and Juan can show he can play there as well you have a decent platoon possibility or the trade idea.

Plus you never know who might get cut or just given away (Like Billy Hatcher was in 1990 for Mike Roesler and Jeff Richardson)

This is a hope. Maybe a team sees in the spring that they really need a pitcher & the Reds can make a move to improve another spot by trading one of their seven starters.


Have they sat on their hands more this offseason or last?

I think this offseason is a bit different.
A) we just won the NL Central. lets try to 'raise it up a notch' as long as it doesn't hurt the team long term.
B) we have surpluses this year. it doesn't seem good to me for the team to leave Chapman in the pen or send Leake to AAA (or both) & at the same time start Gomes in left. Then we have a fair amount of lower grade prospects. IMO DeJesus & Willingham would have been big improvement for the Reds & were obtained for C/B prospects. since we have a fair number of these C/B prospects I would have liked to see Walt make either of those deals.

traderumor
12-19-2010, 04:10 PM
Its deja vu all over again. This thread happened several times last offseason, including the cutesy pictures of Walt sleeping or fishing. Basketball and hockey are in season, football is closing in on playoffs...baseball is in the offseason.

mth123
12-19-2010, 04:17 PM
Agree with Will. Status Quo isn't good enough. It really wasn't last year. The reds beat up on a weak division are were patsies for good teams.

dougdirt
12-19-2010, 04:22 PM
Agree with Will. Status Quo isn't good enough. It really wasn't last year. The reds beat up on a weak division are were patsys for good teams.

And yet the 'status quo' last offseason led us to 91 wins and the division title.... The Reds are still, on paper, the best team in the division. Could they have improved their team by making moves? Sure. But I think they also are going to improve simply by letting the young guys grow.

reds1869
12-19-2010, 04:22 PM
Its deja vu all over again. This thread happened several times last offseason, including the cutesy pictures of Walt sleeping or fishing. Basketball and hockey are in season, football is closing in on playoffs...baseball is in the offseason.

There is no offseason in baseball. This is when championships are won and lost.

WMR
12-19-2010, 04:26 PM
And yet the 'status quo' last offseason led us to 91 wins and the division title.... The Reds are still, on paper, the best team in the division. Could they have improved their team by making moves? Sure. But I think they also are going to improve simply by letting the young guys grow.

Enough to win the division? Definitely.

I'm hoping Walt would shoot a little higher than that, however.

Cashing in a couple chips for a legit difference maker could make the Reds legit WS contenders instead of just favorites to win the NL Central.

mth123
12-19-2010, 04:29 PM
And yet the 'status quo' last offseason led us to 91 wins and the division title.... The Reds are still, on paper, the best team in the division. Could they have improved their team by making moves? Sure. But I think they also are going to improve simply by letting the young guys grow.

91 wins from beating up on a weak division as I stated. And IMO they are not the best team on paper in the NL Central. Even if they are, now is the time to become powerhouse rather than hover on the firinge of the post season. Team needs to make a move to reach the next level. And for the record, I think Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are both contenders for the MVP in 2011. I simply think the rest of the roster is lacking. No TOR starter, no top of the order bats and one power bat shy in the middle. I'd feel a lot better if they would address at least one of those. It doesn't need to be a blockbuster, just somebody who fits.

Its not that the Reds have huge holes positionally, but key roles that winners need to have filled are missing anyone to fill them IMO.

Brutus
12-19-2010, 04:32 PM
The team is going to improve next year simply by keeping it together. The young guys continuing to improve next season will make the difference. While it would be nice to get that 'leadoff guy', it isn't like the Reds are the only team with a hole somewhere. Every team in our division has holes in it. More than the Reds do for that matter.

Unfortunately, it rarely works out that teams improve by standing pat. I'm not saying the Reds should make any radical moves. With the nucleus they have, they shouldn't. However, teams almost never are able to repeat success from the previous year simply by running out largely the same time.

Injuries, regression, slumps, all sorts of factors seem to often come into play the year after.

I think the Reds will win fewer games this year than they did last season, unfortunately. The Reds had a few positions that clearly could have stood to be upgraded and thus far, have not addressed them. In my honest opinion, even as a big, big Jocketty supporter, that's a mistake.

dougdirt
12-19-2010, 04:38 PM
Unfortunately, it rarely works out that teams improve by standing pat. I'm not saying the Reds should make any radical moves. With the nucleus they have, they shouldn't. However, teams almost never are able to repeat success from the previous year simply by running out largely the same time.

Injuries, regression, slumps, all sorts of factors seem to often come into play the year after.

I think the Reds will win fewer games this year than they did last season, unfortunately. The Reds had a few positions that clearly could have stood to be upgraded and thus far, have not addressed them. In my honest opinion, even as a big, big Jocketty supporter, that's a mistake.

I feel pretty good about the team in 2011. 1-5 in the rotation is strong. It doesn't have the top of the rotation guy, but it has 5 guys who are likely to post sub 4.50 ERA's. The bullpen is going to be good. Offensively shortstop and left field aren't going to be good. Every other position on the field is going to be league average or better assuming no major injuries cost someone 50+ games.

westofyou
12-19-2010, 04:43 PM
Are the Reds going to do anything to improve the team this offseason?


I'd say yes they are, on their timetable though.

They aren't going to sell a boatload of tickets through a big move, it's not the nature of the fan base to buy into that, so I don't expect a move for teh sake of a to get press over the Bengals and the Bearcats basketball team. Nor to I expect them to tie themselves into a short term gain at a huge talent drain.

TheNext44
12-19-2010, 04:54 PM
Unfortunately, it rarely works out that teams improve by standing pat. I'm not saying the Reds should make any radical moves. With the nucleus they have, they shouldn't. However, teams almost never are able to repeat success from the previous year simply by running out largely the same time.

Injuries, regression, slumps, all sorts of factors seem to often come into play the year after.

I think the Reds will win fewer games this year than they did last season, unfortunately. The Reds had a few positions that clearly could have stood to be upgraded and thus far, have not addressed them. In my honest opinion, even as a big, big Jocketty supporter, that's a mistake.


I think it just really is hard to repeat success in MLB, no matter what you do. I just want an organization that consistently puts a contending team on the field, year after year. I wouldn't be surprised if the Reds won less games in 2011 than in 2010, but I won't be upset if they are still playing meaningful games in September.

backbencher
12-19-2010, 05:03 PM
The Giants seemed to do pretty well last year by making in-season moves.

Figure out what you have, go from there. Don't squander resources.

Ron Madden
12-19-2010, 05:03 PM
Are the Reds going to do anything to improve the team this offseason?

Time will tell but I certainly hope so.

lollipopcurve
12-19-2010, 05:06 PM
I won't be upset if they are still playing meaningful games in September.

I will be upset if that's all they ever aspire to do with this group.

traderumor
12-19-2010, 05:24 PM
There is no offseason in baseball. This is when championships are won and lost.A gross exaggeration. The original poster is looking for transactions, somebody to look busy, a news snippet, rumors about the Reds in on a trade. I am saying there is not much going on that is newsworthy in a professional sport's offseason from a fan's perspective. I would submit that the more active teams are the ones that have the most holes to fill. The Reds are currently in a life cycle that splash moves that fans like in the offseason are probably going to hurt more than help the franchise. I wonder sometimes if that matters, because it seems fans on boards like this really like activity more than substance when it comes to transaction activity.

Whenever I see threads going like this, I only think of one offseason: the Erik Bedard offseason. Joey Votto for Erik Bedard.

Brutus
12-19-2010, 05:39 PM
I feel pretty good about the team in 2011. 1-5 in the rotation is strong. It doesn't have the top of the rotation guy, but it has 5 guys who are likely to post sub 4.50 ERA's. The bullpen is going to be good. Offensively shortstop and left field aren't going to be good. Every other position on the field is going to be league average or better assuming no major injuries cost someone 50+ games.

I'm not much worried about the pitching. In fact, I'm not worried at all (unless they make the playoffs, in which we'll see the same problem we saw this past season).

But the offense actually is a concern for me. First, I expect Rolen to take a step back, which is natural considering his age and how he played down the stretch last season. It just seems like his bat speed is deteriorating, and we could see a huge decline soon.

I'm actually of the belief Phillips' production will slowly start to go. I have nothing but a gut feel to base that on, but just a hunch. I am fine with Janish being the shortstop this year, and think he'll do better as the starter than Cabrera, but obviously we shouldn't expect much more than a 700 OPS.

Lastly, while I feel great about Stubbs, Bruce and Votto, I'm not expecting the same amount of production from the catcher position as they got in 2010, nor do I have any expectations for left field as is.

So I guess my concern is that while the pitching will keep them competitive, and they have a few great hitters, I feel there will be too many holes in the lineup as currently constructed. I'd like to see one or two more bats to either get on base a bunch or at very least, another guy to hit 30 homers as a substitute.

I'm certainly not expecting 75 wins, but I'm not expecting 90 either.

Brutus
12-19-2010, 05:46 PM
I think it just really is hard to repeat success in MLB, no matter what you do. I just want an organization that consistently puts a contending team on the field, year after year. I wouldn't be surprised if the Reds won less games in 2011 than in 2010, but I won't be upset if they are still playing meaningful games in September.

If the Reds put forth a good effort to improve the club and are still playing meaningful games in September, I too could live with not making the playoffs.

I'm just leery of too much an emphasis on standing pat based on the results of last year. Some would say, if it ain't broke don't fix it. But my thinking is if you keep routine maintenance, it's less likely to get broke.

Ron Madden
12-19-2010, 05:51 PM
I'm not much worried about the pitching. In fact, I'm not worried at all (unless they make the playoffs, in which we'll see the same problem we saw this past season).

But the offense actually is a concern for me. First, I expect Rolen to take a step back, which is natural considering his age and how he played down the stretch last season. It just seems like his bat speed is deteriorating, and we could see a huge decline soon.

I'm actually of the belief Phillips' production will slowly start to go. I have nothing but a gut feel to base that on, but just a hunch. I am fine with Janish being the shortstop this year, and think he'll do better as the starter than Cabrera, but obviously we shouldn't expect much more than a 700 OPS.

Lastly, while I feel great about Stubbs, Bruce and Votto, I'm not expecting the same amount of production from the catcher position as they got in 2010, nor do I have any expectations for left field as is.

So I guess my concern is that while the pitching will keep them competitive, and they have a few great hitters, I feel there will be too many holes in the lineup as currently constructed. I'd like to see one or two more bats to either get on base a bunch or at very least, another guy to hit 30 homers as a substitute.

I'm certainly not expecting 75 wins, but I'm not expecting 90 either.

Good post.

Does anyone think there's a chance Heisey or Sappelt can win the starting LF position from Gomes?

kaldaniels
12-19-2010, 05:56 PM
Good post.

Does anyone think there's a chance Heisey or Sappelt can win the starting LF position from Gomes?

Absolutely, someone beside Gomes is gonna get AB's and if they out produce JG by a fair stretch, the job will be theirs.

I'd also say Heisey had a shot to do so last year, but failed to come up with a passing grade.

And check back with me in the spring, but as of now I expect a new name in the LF mix.

edabbs44
12-19-2010, 05:59 PM
Absolutely, someone beside Gomes is gonna get AB's and if they out produce JG by a fair stretch, the job will be theirs.

I'd also say Heisey had a shot to do so last year, but failed to come up with a passing grade.

And check back with me in the spring, but as of now I expect a new name in the LF mix.

Was just about to post the same thing...either injury (Nix, Edmonds) or poor play (Heisey) allowed us to enjoy Gomes throughout the summer and fall. Gomes won the job in May and no one played well enough or stayed healthy enough to snatch the job from him.

Ron Madden
12-19-2010, 06:04 PM
Absolutely, someone beside Gomes is gonna get AB's and if they out produce JG by a fair stretch, the job will be theirs.

I hope so.

Captain Hook
12-19-2010, 06:09 PM
This thread is the offseason equivalent of people freaking out during the regular season in game threads because the Reds are loosing in the 6th inning by a few runs and have yet to score a run.We're still a few months away from pitchers and catchers reporting and even when we get to that point Walt still has over a month to figure something out if it's looking like he needs to.

It has been a pretty boring offseason though.:(

Will M
12-19-2010, 06:15 PM
A gross exaggeration. The original poster is looking for transactions, somebody to look busy, a news snippet, rumors about the Reds in on a trade.

Not true. I am looking for Bob/Walt to improve the team.

Upgrading the rotation with a true TOR starter or adding a 3 WAR shortstop is difficult. That would add salary & also require a trade partner that likes what the Reds offer.

However, left field is a glaring weakness on the team that could have been/could be improved without giving up the farm in prospects or taking on massive salary.

While I'd be all for Lee May and company for Joe Morgan and friends I realize those types of deals are very rare. But IMO a small move or two would improve the 2011 squad's chances.

Ron Madden
12-19-2010, 06:15 PM
This thread is the offseason equivalent of people freaking out during the regular season in game threads because the Reds are loosing in the 6th inning by a few runs and have yet to score a run.We're still a few months away from pitchers and catchers reporting and even when we get to that point Walt still has over a month to figure something out if it's looking like he needs to.

It has been a pretty boring offseason though.:(

I see this as Fans expressing legitimate concern more so than just freaking out but I do agree there is still plenty of time to make improvements.

westofyou
12-19-2010, 06:27 PM
The season ended 11 weeks ago and starts in 14.5 weeks.

Something will happen and chances are it won't be before NYE, maybe not before 1-21 either.

Captain Hook
12-19-2010, 06:28 PM
I see this as Fans expressing legitimate concern more so than just freaking out but I do agree there is still plenty of time to make improvements.

Your right but there was a lot that got done last after this point last year, like the Chapman signing as well as Ocab and Gomes being signed.Sure, maybe Walt could've let a deal slip by that would've improved the team, but I'm sure it was calculated.I have faith in this front office now and unlike a lot of the past offseasons, it's difficult to argue that it's blind faith.

Unassisted
12-19-2010, 06:36 PM
It seems like the main gripe is that the Reds could have delivered an equivalent return on the deals for Greinke, et. al. But most of the deals for upgrades lately have involved the club getting the upgrade taking on salary. The company line from the Reds is that there isn't much money to spare, so it's easy to understand their reluctance to take on salary.

In that situation, the opportunity cost of spending the budget down to the last nickel is that there won't be any nickels left to put toward Joey Votto's LTC offers or down the road a bit further... draft bonuses.

Kc61
12-19-2010, 06:58 PM
So far, this off-season has been a disappointment. There is still time to go, so maybe there will be productive moves. But as of now, the Reds haven't made the club better.

Starting pitching - I can see the team standing still. Volquez will be available for the whole season. The rotation is deep. I would have liked Cliff Lee, but am not that disappointed. I can live with the inactivity here.

Relief pitching - Reds are deep in relievers, but Cordero struggled last year and Rhodes was mostly fabulous. Yet, there's no deal with Rhodes, no new lefty reliever to replace him or (if Chapman replaces him) nobody to provide depth, the closer situation stands pat. Inactivity not helping here.

Position starters - As Walt has acknowledged, the team needs a high OBP leadoff hitter. The team hit last year, but still lacks high OBP players. Inactivity not helping here.

Also, the obvious left field and SS positions are currently Gomes/Janish. I would like one spot to improve. Inactivity not helping here.

Bench - So far, there's Hernandez/Hanigan, Cairo, Heisey. With Janish and Gomes starting, there are two available spots. A left handed bat. A middle infielder. I can see JF and Cozart possibly making the team, but you'd expect some proven guys to compete for these spots. Inactivity not helping here.

I'm sure Walt will pick up some guys to fill out slots, but absent some positive acquisitions, I'm not expecting the team to win the division.

I just don't believe this team improves by standing still. Sure, some guys will improve. Others will do worse. And with all the AAA depth, I don't see one AAA guy about to enter the starting lineup for this club.

So I'm disappointed so far, particularly as the Brewers continue to improve through aggressive moves. But there's still time.

RedLegSuperStar
12-19-2010, 07:54 PM
Johnny Damon for LF
Christian Guzman SS
Rafael Soriano RP/CP
and Hank Blalock Minor League Deal

Dreaming big!

traderumor
12-19-2010, 08:30 PM
Not true. I am looking for Bob/Walt to improve the team.

Upgrading the rotation with a true TOR starter or adding a 3 WAR shortstop is difficult. That would add salary & also require a trade partner that likes what the Reds offer.

However, left field is a glaring weakness on the team that could have been/could be improved without giving up the farm in prospects or taking on massive salary.

While I'd be all for Lee May and company for Joe Morgan and friends I realize those types of deals are very rare. But IMO a small move or two would improve the 2011 squad's chances.So, with the last sentence, how was I wrong? A small move or two, that's all you ask. We give you Miguel Cairo, two years, Bronson Arroyo extension, Jay Bruce extension. I would add, its December.

pedro
12-19-2010, 09:18 PM
Walt is methodical and is apparently working within a tight budget. That's a recipe for an unsexy offseason. My guess is that unless the Reds are able to get someone to take Cordero and at least half his salary off their hands we aren't going to see any more big pieces added any time soon. As the season approaches and all the chairs in offseason duck duck goose start to get filled up I wouldn't be surprised to see Walt trade a pitcher or two and maybe add a piece to the LF or SS mix but I wouldn't get too worked up waiting for it to happen because that's just a recipe for angst.

Strikes Out Looking
12-19-2010, 09:21 PM
Johnny Damon for LF
Christian Guzman SS
Rafael Soriano RP/CP
and Hank Blalock Minor League Deal

Dreaming big!

In my mind, those moves are a nightmare.

Oxilon
12-19-2010, 09:21 PM
I would have liked to nab Grienke but it would have seriously hurt our depth which is one of our strongest suits. I'm still more concerned about LF (which didn't produce anything outside of May), especially when you consider Rolen is due to regress. DeJesus was sitting there ready to be picked for a relatively cheap price, and we missed the boat on him. He would have gotten Gomes out of the starting lineup, improved our offense and defense, and would have been a good lead-off hitter. Considering he's relatively affordable and didn't cost too much to trade for, that's been Walt's biggest blunder this offseason.

That said, it's still only December.

The Voice of IH
12-19-2010, 09:23 PM
http://cache4.asset-cache.net/xc/98199984.jpg?v=1&c=NewsMaker&k=2&d=EDF6F2F4F969CEBDE210D3491BAB32B9728FD44519544F6C 4295445B0975877C

best thread ever! Can anyone find it? I am having trouble. :cool:

HokieRed
12-19-2010, 09:24 PM
I don't see us getting action on LF. Too many good in-house possibilities to spend money there. It's going to be Gomes until Frazier, Heisey, or Sappelt can take over the job. Same at SS: Janish, Cozart, or Negron. Frankly, while I see we could use help at these positions, I don't think it makes sense for this organization to spend a lot on marginal upgrades. The Votto contract is surely the first thing on the FO's table. And after that, if we're going to spend, I'd like to see it be on a top-flight starter. Unfortunately the best possibility just went to the Brewers.

pedro
12-19-2010, 09:48 PM
I don't see us getting action on LF. Too many good in-house possibilities to spend money there. It's going to be Gomes until Frazier, Heisey, or Sappelt can take over the job. Same at SS: Janish, Cozart, or Negron. Frankly, while I see we could use help at these positions, I don't think it makes sense for this organization to spend a lot on marginal upgrades. The Votto contract is surely the first thing on the FO's table. And after that, if we're going to spend, I'd like to see it be on a top-flight starter. Unfortunately the best possibility just went to the Brewers.

I agree that the Reds are very likely looking to firm up their position with Votto (and Cueto) before they tie up any more money.

edabbs44
12-19-2010, 09:49 PM
best thread ever! Can anyone find it? I am having trouble. :cool:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79120&highlight=jocketty

The Voice of IH
12-19-2010, 10:20 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79120&highlight=jocketty

thank you sir

Will M
12-19-2010, 11:50 PM
So, with the last sentence, how was I wrong? A small move or two, that's all you ask. We give you Miguel Cairo, two years, Bronson Arroyo extension, Jay Bruce extension. I would add, its December.

The moves you mention don't improve the 2011 team compared to the 2010 team. Right now we have the same players with a few excemptions:
1. Harang (solid move letting him go)
2. Cabrera (imo also a solid move letting him go)
3. Nix. much maligned but produced 1.5 WAR as a bench bat
4. Rhodes. very solid guy as a LH set up man
5. Edmonds

So we are in essence short a set up guy and a solid bench bat compared to the 2010 squad. Yet IMO Bob/Walt needed to improve the team beyond what would happen internally. So far that hasn't happened.

as to the 'its December' comment: yes it is. and a some guys who may have helped the 2011 squad have been snatched up by other teams.
the well of available players who might help the 2011 is not infinite. in fact its fairly small due to who is actually available & who might fit into a reasonable budget.

RedLegSuperStar
12-20-2010, 05:21 AM
Alonso is going to apparently take Nix spot.. A nice way to boost his value.(sarcasm)

Eric_the_Red
12-20-2010, 06:52 AM
I think fans sometimes have to remember that this isn't fantasy baseball. It isn't as easy as going to another team and saying "Let's trade" or picking up a free agent off the waiver wire.

I think perhaps this thread would be more appropriate if the Reds hadn't won the division last year, and there was a reason to doubt the direction of the FO. In Walt I trust.

MikeS21
12-20-2010, 07:50 AM
I think fans sometimes have to remember that this isn't fantasy baseball. It isn't as easy as going to another team and saying "Let's trade" or picking up a free agent off the waiver wire.

I think perhaps this thread would be more appropriate if the Reds hadn't won the division last year, and there was a reason to doubt the direction of the FO. In Walt I trust.
Right on. It takes two to complete a trade. It's easy to sit here and say "We could've matched that trade," but who is to say Walt didn't try? Other GM's do not value our bargaining chips as high as we do.

I am 100% sure Walt can make a trade for a LF. However, I am not at all sure he can improve our current LF situation without over-paying. We can live with what we have without over-paying.

Caveat Emperor
12-20-2010, 08:30 AM
I agree that the Reds are very likely looking to firm up their position with Votto (and Cueto) before they tie up any more money.

The other issue to consider is that, until the Votto situation is settled, the Reds are probably reluctant to wheel off a guy like Alonso and leave themselves holding the bag at 1st base with no in-house replacement should they need to deal Votto.

People need to relax. The Reds are bringing a good team back for 2011 even if Walt doesn't do another thing for the rest of the offseason. He won't miss opportunities to get better, but only if it makes sense for the long-term (read: not draining valuable talent from the minors) and the short term.

lollipopcurve
12-20-2010, 08:34 AM
He won't miss opportunities to get better, but only if it makes sense for the long-term (read: not draining valuable talent from the minors) and the short term.

If every opportunity had to benefit both the long-term and the short-term, very little would happen. Most trade fits involve swapping one for the other.

OldXOhio
12-20-2010, 09:02 AM
Right on. It takes two to complete a trade. It's easy to sit here and say "We could've matched that trade," but who is to say Walt didn't try? Other GM's do not value our bargaining chips as high as we do.

I am 100% sure Walt can make a trade for a LF. However, I am not at all sure he can improve our current LF situation without over-paying. We can live with what we have without over-paying.

Walt made a living in the trade market while in STL, often times because he had a talent base or resources to work with. He now has at least one of those in Cincinnati. I for one am willing to sit back and wait...even if that means until next September.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 09:38 AM
People need to relax. The Reds are bringing a good team back for 2011 even if Walt doesn't do another thing for the rest of the offseason. He won't miss opportunities to get better, but only if it makes sense for the long-term (read: not draining valuable talent from the minors) and the short term.

I agree on the relaxation point.

I disagree on everything else.

The Reds were a playoff team. Now is the time to focus on the short term.

What is the purpose of stockpiling talent in the minors? To have Alonso sitting around for three years while the team awaits Votto's decision? To watch guys develop endlessly while the major league team continues to have holes?

Every team trying to win reaches a point when it trades some prospects for proven talent that fills a hole. The Reds are now at that point.

I'm not saying destroy the entire minor league system. But just when does NOW become the imperative?

I hope there are irons in the fire and the Reds are about to do something positive to help the ballclub because at this stage it is the Louisville Bats fans who should be happy, not Reds fans looking toward 2011.

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 09:46 AM
I agree on the relaxation point.

I disagree on everything else.

The Reds were a playoff team. Now is the time to focus on the short term.

What is the purpose of stockpiling talent in the minors? To have Alonso sitting around for three years while the team awaits Votto's decision? To watch guys develop endlessly while the major league team continues to have holes?

Every team trying to win reaches a point when it trades some prospects for proven talent that fills a hole. The Reds are now at that point.

I'm not saying to destroy the entire minor league system. But just when does NOW become the imperative?

I hope there are irons in the fire and the Reds are about to do something positive to help the ballclub because at this stage it is the Louisville Bats fans who should be happy, not Reds fans looking toward 2011.

The purpose of stockpiling talent in the minors is so the team is competitive for an extended period of time. We need to be patient...we've had a drought for 15 years, get one taste and now it's time to go all in?

Doug said it before...we should see improvement from in house guys without doing a thing. This team should be better and, if they aren't (for whatever reason) then they'd be in trouble with or w/o certain additions.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 09:47 AM
The other issue to consider is that, until the Votto situation is settled, the Reds are probably reluctant to wheel off a guy like Alonso and leave themselves holding the bag at 1st base with no in-house replacement should they need to deal Votto.

People need to relax. The Reds are bringing a good team back for 2011 even if Walt doesn't do another thing for the rest of the offseason. He won't miss opportunities to get better, but only if it makes sense for the long-term (read: not draining valuable talent from the minors) and the short term.


Resting on laurels and settling for "good enough" is such a Cincinnati mentality- although its usually reserved for Mike Brown and the Bungles.

I agree with Will. People keep saying that this team will improve from last year's, or at least maintain status quo. While I don't necessarily disagree with that fact, my guess is that it may still not be enough to make the playoffs, and it almost certainly won't be good enough to advance in them.

Look at other rotations in the league- Halladay, Lee, Oswalt; Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum; Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner; Carpenter, Wainwright, whatever...

How are the Reds going to compete with any of those, let alone all of them, in a short series? Even if you say we couldn't get a hammer because the price was too steep (which is fine), at least go out and improve one of the glaring holes in the lineup- LF and SS.

People keep saying that this team will at worst maintain status quo, and should therefore still win the division. They are forgetting that while that may be true, our competition is quickly improving. Last year was an unbeliveably weak year for the division, including the Cardinals and the Brewers. Can't say the same will be true this year.

Winning teams look for ways to continue to get better even when they are winning. The Cardinals do it every year. Ditto for the Yankees and Red Sox and Philliles and White Sox, etc. While those teams clearly have much more money to spend, the Reds have no shortage of assets when it comes to acquiring talent. Everyone knew they had the most (and best) chips to acquire Cliff Lee last year or Zack Greinke/Justin Upton/Jose Reyes, etc. this year. Instead we sit on our hands, and as a result, will probably get nowhere come playoff time. I do think we will be good next year, but without doing anything to upgrade, we will likely not be great.

Count me in the camp of very frustrated if they continue to do nothing this offseason. And not trading Alonso because you're not sure what will happen with Votto 2-4 years from now is sheer stupidity and a waste of resources IMO. But hey, at least we did win the division last year. That should buy this fanbase another 10 years to not complain.

lollipopcurve
12-20-2010, 09:47 AM
I agree on the relaxation point.

I disagree on everything else.

The Reds were a playoff team. Now is the time to focus on the short term.

What is the purpose of stockpiling talent in the minors? To have Alonso sitting around for three years while the team awaits Votto's decision? To watch guys develop endlessly while the major league team continues to have holes?

Every team trying to win reaches a point when it trades some prospects for proven talent that fills a hole. The Reds are now at that point.

I'm not saying to destroy the entire minor league system. But just when does NOW become the imperative?

I hope there are irons in the fire and the Reds are about to do something positive to help the ballclub because at this stage it is the Louisville Bats fans who should be happy, not Reds fans looking toward 2011.

Nice post. Agree on all fronts.

My guess is that they're trying to get something done with Votto, and may then move Alonso. (If they're unable to extend Votto, things could get weird.)

Benihana
12-20-2010, 09:48 AM
I agree on the relaxation point.

I disagree on everything else.

The Reds were a playoff team. Now is the time to focus on the short term.

What is the purpose of stockpiling talent in the minors? To have Alonso sitting around for three years while the team awaits Votto's decision? To watch guys develop endlessly while the major league team continues to have holes?

Every team trying to win reaches a point when it trades some prospects for proven talent that fills a hole. The Reds are now at that point.

I'm not saying destroy the entire minor league system. But just when does NOW become the imperative?

I hope there are irons in the fire and the Reds are about to do something positive to help the ballclub because at this stage it is the Louisville Bats fans who should be happy, not Reds fans looking toward 2011.

This. You said it much better than I did. :beerme:

REDREAD
12-20-2010, 09:59 AM
Walt is slow and methodical. It's very "boring" after having Wayne and Jimbo around, who seemed to love to impulsively do a lot of roster turnover, which kept things interesting.

I do think Walt has money left to spend. I also think he's trying to resolve Votto and Cueto before making any more moves. I think Rhodes is gone, but Walt tried hard to get him back. I think we will see movement after Votto and Cueto get their salaries set for next year.

Many other teams are in a similiar position.. they have to wait for arb eligible players to get their salaries set before making moves.

I think we will definitely see an OF added in Jan/Feb.

I'm not really worried about the team not having a "name" guy as the ace. It sure would be nice, but we've got a lot of upside in the rotation. I'm not sure that spending 13 million on another starting pitcher is the best use of resources.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 10:05 AM
Walt is slow and methodical. It's very "boring" after having Wayne and Jimbo around, who seemed to love to impulsively do a lot of roster turnover, which kept things interesting.

I do think Walt has money left to spend. I also think he's trying to resolve Votto and Cueto before making any more moves. I think Rhodes is gone, but Walt tried hard to get him back. I think we will see movement after Votto and Cueto get their salaries set for next year.

Many other teams are in a similiar position.. they have to wait for arb eligible players to get their salaries set before making moves.

I think we will definitely see an OF added in Jan/Feb.

I'm not really worried about the team not having a "name" guy as the ace. It sure would be nice, but we've got a lot of upside in the rotation. I'm not sure that spending 13 million on another starting pitcher is the best use of resources.

I don't mind losing Rhodes (although it would've been nice to offer him arb and get the draft picks).

As for adding an OF, do you think it will be a legitimate starter (ie Johnny Damon) or another Laynce Nix? Because I don't really care about adding the latter.

I also don't mind not getting the ace, particularly if he is prohibitively expensive in terms of money and/or talent, but please then get a significant upgrade in the lineup. Johnny Gomes and Paul Janish et al are not acceptable starters given the makeup of this team. At least one of those three spots (SP1, LF, SS) must be significantly improved for this team to be a true threat for the pennant, or else we're one Scott Rolen tweaked back away from 3rd place mediocrity. No team with Gomes, Janish, and Cairo in their everyday starting lineup (and Bronson Arroyo as their #1 starter) will be contending with the 2011 Cards or Brewers.

REDREAD
12-20-2010, 10:13 AM
I don't mind losing Rhodes (although it would've been nice to offer him arb and get the draft picks).

As for adding an OF, do you think it will be a legitimate starter (ie Johnny Damon) or another Laynce Nix? Because I don't really care about adding the latter.



Extra draft picks are nice, but Rhodes would've accepted arbitration in a heartbeat. He had the numbers to get a nice arb award. He'd get more in arbitration than on the open market, most likely. I think it was smart to decline arb, but continue to negotiate with Rhodes.

I think the Reds will pick up an OF that could potentially win the starting job.
I think another Gomes is a better analogy than Nix.. a former starting OF that has either fallen out of favor, too expensive, or not in a team's plans.
I could see them dealing someone like Juan Francisco to a team that wants to get less expensive in the OF.
Heisley is passable as a backup CF, so they have some flexibility to take a chance on someone.

I really don't see Alonso making the team as a bat off the bench. That seems like a total waste. (Let him play in AAA, instead of rotting on the bench).

pedro
12-20-2010, 11:14 AM
"sheer stupidity"?

Wow. Talk about screaming "fire" in the movie theater when you see the light from someones cell phone.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 11:31 AM
"sheer stupidity"?

Wow. Talk about screaming "fire" in the movie theater when you see the light from someones cell phone.

Yes. Not trading Alonso to fill a need on a contending team because you are not sure what will happen with Joey Votto 2-4 years from would, in fact, be sheer stupidity.

If Alonso could play another position, or you think you might trade Votto next offseason (which I would loathe) then I would say otherwise. If you are hanging onto him to see what happens in 2013 or 2014 with Votto, you are wasting valuable resources during a precious window to contend- a window that we have been anxiously waiting for for 15 years.

To be clear, who knows if there is significant demand for Alonso? I can't speak to that. All that I'm suggesting is that if he is being kept for the Votto uncertainty reason, it is a complete and utter waste of resources and lack of direction.

pedro
12-20-2010, 11:40 AM
Yes. Not trading Alonso to fill a need on a contending team because you are not sure what will happen with Joey Votto 2-4 years from would, in fact, be sheer stupidity.

If Alonso could play another position, or you think you might trade Votto next offseason (which I would loathe) then I would say otherwise. If you are hanging onto him to see what happens in 2013 or 2014 with Votto, you are wasting valuable resources during a precious window to contend- a window that we have been anxiously waiting for for 15 years.

To be clear, who knows if there is significant demand for Alonso? I can't speak to that. All that I'm suggesting is that if he is being kept for the Votto uncertainty reason, it is a complete and utter waste of resources and lack of direction.

So what your saying is that the GM is stupid if something that you're not even sure is happening is happening and that it really upsets you? That's the definition of overreaction

IMO, Alonso doesn't have a lot of value right now and barring some team offering a great trade for him hanging onto him for at least another half season is the right thing to do.

MikeS21
12-20-2010, 11:47 AM
The one thing Walt is trying to prevent is creating another hole while trying to fix an existing hole.

If you've not read John Fay's article about the Grienke trade, find it here:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/12/19/brewers-add-greinke/

Here is what Fay said:


But Greinke came at the huge price. They gave up center fielder Lorenzo Cain, shortstop Alcides Escobar and top pitching prospect Jake Odorrizzi in the deal. They also got shortstop Yuniesky Betancount in the deal.

To make a similar deal, the Reds would probably have had to give up Drew Stubbs, Zack Cozart and a top young pitcher.

At first glance I leap at that trade. But the more I think it over, it becomes a BAD deal for the Reds long-term. It creates more problems than it fixes.

Caveat Emperor
12-20-2010, 12:09 PM
Resting on laurels and settling for "good enough" is such a Cincinnati mentality- although its usually reserved for Mike Brown and the Bungles.

I agree with Will. People keep saying that this team will improve from last year's, or at least maintain status quo. While I don't necessarily disagree with that fact, my guess is that it may still not be enough to make the playoffs, and it almost certainly won't be good enough to advance in them.

Look at other rotations in the league- Halladay, Lee, Oswalt; Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum; Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner; Carpenter, Wainwright, whatever...

They seemed to do OK last year -- won the NL Central and all. Along the way, they overcame other teams with names like Carpenter, Wainwright, and Gallardo.

Fact is, all the pitchers you named are very good. But, let's not sell the Reds short, as they have some good young pitching of their own -- and many of the pitchers on their roster have the ability (whether it comes together or not) to be very good, top-flight pitchers. Chapman is ace-level talent. Volquez is ace-level talent. Bailey is ace-level talent. Wood is upper-mid rotation talent. Cueto is upper-mid rotation talent. As shocking as it may seem to some, the best thing the Reds could do might be to just let the kids grow up and see what happens.

They didn't get Greinke. Whatever. Dude's a headcase and didn't exactly burn the world down last year (and he sure as heck won't burn the world down in Milwaukee next year either, unless they fix their glaring defensive issues). They didn't sign Lee or Crawford. Whatever. You'd need to be 7 kinds of foolish to think a small/mid-market club was getting either of those two pieces. There is plenty of offseason left for Jocketty to work (and remember, some of the best deals -- see: Arroyo for Pena -- don't get made until very late in the game). I'd rather wait for the deal that makes sense than make a panic-trade just to "respond" to what other teams are doing.

And, if nothing happens, nothing happens. Great. I'll take the 2010 Reds + a full year of healthy Edinson Volquez + a full year of Travis Wood + a full year of Aroldis Chapman + an improved Jay Bruce, etc. Worst case scenario, you have a defending-champ team with payflex and spare parts for a midseason acquisition.

I think people need to back up and get an ounce of perspective here.

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 12:24 PM
They seemed to do OK last year -- won the NL Central and all. Along the way, they overcame other teams with names like Carpenter, Wainwright, and Gallardo.

Fact is, all the pitchers you named are very good. But, let's not sell the Reds short, as they have some good young pitching of their own -- and many of the pitchers on their roster have the ability (whether it comes together or not) to be very good, top-flight pitchers. Chapman is ace-level talent. Volquez is ace-level talent. Bailey is ace-level talent. Wood is upper-mid rotation talent. Cueto is upper-mid rotation talent. As shocking as it may seem to some, the best thing the Reds could do might be to just let the kids grow up and see what happens.

They didn't get Greinke. Whatever. Dude's a headcase and didn't exactly burn the world down last year (and he sure as heck won't burn the world down in Milwaukee next year either, unless they fix their glaring defensive issues). They didn't sign Lee or Crawford. Whatever. You'd need to be 7 kinds of foolish to think a small/mid-market club was getting either of those two pieces. There is plenty of offseason left for Jocketty to work (and remember, some of the best deals -- see: Arroyo for Pena -- don't get made until very late in the game). I'd rather wait for the deal that makes sense than make a panic-trade just to "respond" to what other teams are doing.

And, if nothing happens, nothing happens. Great. I'll take the 2010 Reds + a full year of healthy Edinson Volquez + a full year of Travis Wood + a full year of Aroldis Chapman + an improved Jay Bruce, etc. Worst case scenario, you have a defending-champ team with payflex and spare parts for a midseason acquisition.

I think people need to back up and get an ounce of perspective here.

Yep.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 12:42 PM
They seemed to do OK last year -- won the NL Central and all. Along the way, they overcame other teams with names like Carpenter, Wainwright, and Gallardo.

Fact is, all the pitchers you named are very good. But, let's not sell the Reds short, as they have some good young pitching of their own -- and many of the pitchers on their roster have the ability (whether it comes together or not) to be very good, top-flight pitchers. Chapman is ace-level talent. Volquez is ace-level talent. Bailey is ace-level talent. Wood is upper-mid rotation talent. Cueto is upper-mid rotation talent. As shocking as it may seem to some, the best thing the Reds could do might be to just let the kids grow up and see what happens.

They didn't get Greinke. Whatever. Dude's a headcase and didn't exactly burn the world down last year (and he sure as heck won't burn the world down in Milwaukee next year either, unless they fix their glaring defensive issues). They didn't sign Lee or Crawford. Whatever. You'd need to be 7 kinds of foolish to think a small/mid-market club was getting either of those two pieces. There is plenty of offseason left for Jocketty to work (and remember, some of the best deals -- see: Arroyo for Pena -- don't get made until very late in the game). I'd rather wait for the deal that makes sense than make a panic-trade just to "respond" to what other teams are doing.

And, if nothing happens, nothing happens. Great. I'll take the 2010 Reds + a full year of healthy Edinson Volquez + a full year of Travis Wood + a full year of Aroldis Chapman + an improved Jay Bruce, etc. Worst case scenario, you have a defending-champ team with payflex and spare parts for a midseason acquisition.

I think people need to back up and get an ounce of perspective here.

I'm sorry, but you really didn't respond to my point.

What you're suggesting is exactly what I'm talking about- resting on laurels. They won the division last year. Great. So did the Bengals. Look where they're at this year.

That's football, fine. The Dodgers won their division in 2009. Won 95 games actually. The next year, without losing any of their core pieces, they were sub-500. Again, not saying that will happen with the Reds, but just assuming that everything will work out fine and dandy because they won the division last year is no way to continue to build a winning club. Have you ever heard of Kaizen?

Never asked for Lee or Crawford, I'm not stupid. Other guys who are reportedly available and would be HUGE upgrades at an area of need would be nice. Greinke, either of the Upton brothers, Ellsbury, and Reyes are all guys who might fit the bill. Even Brett Gardner, although trading with the Yankees makes me nervous because they would only be interested in significant major league pieces.

Last season, the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs all had close to if not the worst season they've had in a decade. You can't count on that happening again.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 12:44 PM
Yep.

Nope.

Are the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Brewers, Cards, Dodgers, etc., all lacking in perspective? Why are these teams out there using the off-season to try to get better players?

Only the Reds conveniently seem to view sitting still as progress. It isn't.

It would be different if the Reds had a left handed hitting lead off left fielder waiting in house; an all-around shortstop waiting in house. It's possible someone may emerge, but not likely.

Most good teams don't sit still and call it perspective. In any sport.

pedro
12-20-2010, 12:45 PM
I think people need to back up and get an ounce of perspective here.

Indeed.

westofyou
12-20-2010, 12:49 PM
Nope.

Are the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Brewers, Cards, Dodgers, etc., all lacking in perspective? Why are these teams out there using the off-season to try to get better players?

Only the Reds conveniently seem to view sitting still as progress. It isn't.

It would be different if the Reds had a left handed hitting lead off left fielder waiting in house; an all-around shortstop waiting in house. It's possible someone may emerge, but not likely.

Most good teams don't sit still and call it perspective. In any sport.


Dodgers?

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/dec/11/sports/la-sp-simers-20101212/2



Just to be clear here, I think the Dodgers are stockpiling garbage when they should be acting more like one of the game's top franchises located in one of the country's top cities.

I think Dodgers fans have come to accept a lower standard of player when it comes to their team, management counting on it and knowing Dodgers fans will keep buying tickets.

Roy Tucker
12-20-2010, 01:01 PM
I hardly think that WJ thinks he has the reincarnation the '75 Reds and sitting on his laurels and doing crossword puzzles in his office.

I think it is more a prudent evaluation of his roster and his team and his budget and he realizes that he doesn't have to hit a home run here in the offseason for the Reds to compete very well in 2011.

Plus, its Dec. 20. There is a long time to go before ST 2011 even starts and even longer till Opening Day 2011.

pedro
12-20-2010, 01:02 PM
Nope.

Are the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Brewers, Cards, Dodgers, etc., all lacking in perspective? Why are these teams out there using the off-season to try to get better players?

Only the Reds conveniently seem to view sitting still as progress. It isn't.

It would be different if the Reds had a left handed hitting lead off left fielder waiting in house; an all-around shortstop waiting in house. It's possible someone may emerge, but not likely.

Most good teams don't sit still and call it perspective. In any sport.

They don't freak out halfway through the off season and go into panic mode either.

The Cardinals? They've traded for Ryan Theriot and signed Lance Berkman and Gerald Laird. Those are hardly earth shaking moves, especially considering Berkman is slated to play RF.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2010, 01:21 PM
I'm sorry, but you really didn't respond to my point.

What you're suggesting is exactly what I'm talking about- resting on laurels. They won the division last year. Great. So did the Bengals. Look where they're at this year.

That's football, fine. The Dodgers won their division in 2009. Won 95 games actually. The next year, without losing any of their core pieces, they were sub-500. Again, not saying that will happen with the Reds, but just assuming that everything will work out fine and dandy because they won the division last year is no way to continue to build a winning club. Have you ever heard of Kaizen?

Never asked for Lee or Crawford, I'm not stupid. Other guys who are reportedly available and would be HUGE upgrades at an area of need would be nice. Greinke, either of the Upton brothers, Ellsbury, and Reyes are all guys who might fit the bill. Even Brett Gardner, although trading with the Yankees makes me nervous because they would only be interested in significant major league pieces.

Last season, the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs all had close to if not the worst season they've had in a decade. You can't count on that happening again.

I'll respond:

1. The offseason isn't even half over. We have no clue what Jocketty has up his sleeve.

2. Even if the Reds choose to do nothing, they could very well improve a great deal:

-- Jay Bruce could blossom into a monster 900 OPS bat, meaning Rolen's possible slide to merely major league average wouldn't hurt all that much. Bruce's emergence into that 900 OPS bat (his OPS over the last half of the season was 951)
-- Drew Stubbs could blossom into a better offensive player, capable of OPSing 800+ on the year, thereby also negating the possible slide of Rolen. (His second half OPS was 852.)
-- Jonny Gomes OPS two years ago: 879. He could very well improve to those levels, or at least to levels approaching those. Chris Heisey could also blossom into a bone fide option at LF, as could Dave Sappelt.
-- Homer Bailey pitched very well late in the year. He could blossom into an ace.
-- Edinson Volquez will be a year removed from TJ surgery, which is usually where pitchers rediscover control and stuff. He could be primed to become again that 17-game winner and All-Star from two years ago. That would make him the team's erstwhile ace of a staff that, for all its success, had a 110 OPS+ as its best. Volquez's 138 OPS+ would be a HUGE addition.
-- Aroldis Chapman will now be with the Reds all year, instead of August. Few other teams in baseball added an arm like that to their pen. Certainly not anyone in the division. As a middle reliever, he's a difference-maker in and of himself. A HUGE addition.
-- Travis Wood will be with the team for the entire season, largely in place of Aaron Harang. If he repeats his 2010, that in itself would be worth 20-ish runs, or two wins.
-- Nick Masset, Logan Ondrusek, Jared Burton, Bill Bray, and others replace innings from guys like Micah Owings, Mike Lincoln, and others, which may further improve the pen. (Beyond the Chapman for Rhodes move.)
-- Mike Leake provides both starting depth and the bullpen long relief of 2010 swing men, Micah Owings and Sam LeCure.
-- Paul Janish's OPS at SS-- 723. Orlando Cabrera's OPS-- 657. That jump would be just as positive as Rolen's supposed decline is negative.

The other teams are active largely because they need to be in order to compete with the Reds, as they were in 2010. The 2011 Reds may indeed be much better than the 2010 team just because of the young talent.

Projections indicate the Reds would be just about the same as they were last season, with the pitching improving and the offense regressing slightly. That's with offensive seasons from Stubbs, Votto, and Bruce that are conservative, to say the least. (It also factors in declines from Rolen and the catchers.)

As to the bolded part, you're asking for a blockbuster deal that doesn't damage the "core" major leaguers yet also adds significant talent in an area of supposed weakness. You do realize this, right?

Kc61
12-20-2010, 01:23 PM
They don't freak out halfway through the off season and go into panic mode either.

The Cardinals? They've traded for Ryan Theriot and signed Lance Berkman and Gerald Laird. Those are hardly earth shaking moves, especially considering Berkman is slated to play RF.

If Berkman is healthy, then despite his defensive question marks, he adds to the middle of the Cards order. A healthy Berkman hitting with Albert and Holliday is meaningful.

Some may not like what other teams are doing, some have budget constraints, but they are trying to fill holes as best they can. The Reds may also be trying but there's no evidence of it as yet.

I won't respond to "freak out" or "panic mode" which is just hyperbole and isn't true. Disappointment so far, is a term I would gladly accept.

pedro
12-20-2010, 01:34 PM
If Berkman is healthy, then despite his defensive question marks, he adds to the middle of the Cards order. A healthy Berkman hitting with Albert and Holliday is meaningful.

Some may not like what other teams are doing, some have budget constraints, but they are trying to fill holes as best they can. The Reds may also be trying but there's no evidence of it as yet.

I think Berkman still has some AB's left but at 8 million bucks and with his defense it's a very risky move. Not sure I'd be happy if that's how the Reds chose to spend their money.

As for "evidence" I think some posters are forgetting that it's bad poker to let everyone know you're trying to do. And if my GM is in a poker game with the other 29 GM's I sure don't want him telegraphing his hand to the people in the cheap seats.

IMO the internet has made people extremely impatient and a little too sure of the depth of their own knowledge of situations of which they only have partial knowledge. I'll be happy to listen to people complain when therr is something to complain about but honestly at this point it's just kind of annoying.

Caveat Emperor
12-20-2010, 01:54 PM
I'm sorry, but you really didn't respond to my point.

What you're suggesting is exactly what I'm talking about- resting on laurels. They won the division last year. Great. So did the Bengals. Look where they're at this year.

That's football, fine. The Dodgers won their division in 2009. Won 95 games actually. The next year, without losing any of their core pieces, they were sub-500. Again, not saying that will happen with the Reds, but just assuming that everything will work out fine and dandy because they won the division last year is no way to continue to build a winning club. Have you ever heard of Kaizen?

Never asked for Lee or Crawford, I'm not stupid. Other guys who are reportedly available and would be HUGE upgrades at an area of need would be nice. Greinke, either of the Upton brothers, Ellsbury, and Reyes are all guys who might fit the bill. Even Brett Gardner, although trading with the Yankees makes me nervous because they would only be interested in significant major league pieces.

Last season, the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs all had close to if not the worst season they've had in a decade. You can't count on that happening again.

Well, that's mostly because your point is -- no offense -- based on a supposition that the Reds of 2011 will not be improved enough to compete with the rest of the NL. It focuses on acquisitions other teams are making and discounts lots of other points being brought up, namely:

1. The natural improvement of young players who are either in age-prime years or approaching age-prime years (Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Cueto, etc.)

2. Pitching improvements from guys who didn't begin 2010 on the active roster (Volquez, Wood, and Chapman)

3. Pre-existing shortcoming of other squads that remain unaddressed (defense in STL and MIL, for example)

Your point also rests on a supposition that Walt Jocketty is "resting on his laurels" when, in fact, there is precisely zero evidence to support that point. The Reds have missed out on several big-dollar signings (Werth, Crawford, Lee), and now on one big-name trade acquisition (Greinke -- who, as a SP, really doesn't fall into a significant area of need for the team). The other names you mentioned haven't been moved, and there is no indication one way or the other that Walt is or is not involved in acquiring those players (or players like them). There is also no indication that the teams involved are at all interested in moving those pieces or would move those pieces at an acceptable cost to the Reds.

So, in summary, my counter to you is this:

1. The off-season is young, and we have no idea what Walt is or is not doing. This thread could be hillarious reading in a month if Walt pulls off deals to land a starting SS and a solid LH-platoon mate for Gomes in LF.

2. What you would call "resting on laurels," I would call allowing a *very* talented young team to grow organically isntead of lopping parts off to add other parts from outside of the organization (at a cost of both money and prospects, which could negatively impact long-term viability of the franchise).

3. The worst-case scenario here is that the Reds roll into 2011 with the following lineup and rotation:

C: Ryan Hanigan / Ramon Hernandez
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Scott Rolen
SS: Paul Janish
RF: Jay Bruce
CF: Drew Stubbs
LF: Jonny Gomes / LH Platoon-mate

SP: Johnny Cueto
SP: Bronson Arroyo
SP: Edinson Volquez
SP: Travis Wood
SP: Homer Bailey / Mike Leake / Aroldis Chapman

I'm genuinely OK with that. That's a solid lineup that wil score a lot of runs, strike a lot of guys out, and compete every night. If everyone stays healthy, that club will be contending for a post-season spot this September.

Things could be much, much worse.

TRF
12-20-2010, 02:01 PM
Ya know, I'm the guy usually thinking Jocketty could do better and I think he's had a great offseason.

Not offering Rhodes arb was the absolute RIGHT thing to do. He'd have accepted in a heartbeat, and at his age, I'm not inrterested in seeing the Reds pay him 6+ mil. He'd have won too.

Gomes, I think was a mistake... to a degree. The Reds did win with him. From all accounts he's a great clubhouse presence, but the Reds need a LH Bat there, badly. Yonder, JF or Dorn (in house options) should platoon and probably get more AB's than Gomes. Won't happen with Dusty in charge though. I don't think Dusty favors vets like his rep says, but he doesn't disrespect them either.

I'm more than content with Janish/Cozart at SS with Cozart occasionally spelling BP at 2B.

I'm very happy with the rotation. Past Arroyo and Cueto, I can't quite figure out the order or roster in the rotation. Volquez/Wood/Bailey? Wood/Leake/Chapman? Bailey/Volquez/Chapman? so many combinations.

I'm even more happy with the pen. Arredondo and Chapman are wildcards. Masset and Bray both return after ending the year healthy. A plethora of youngsters at AAA and Donnie Joseph, the closer in waiting.

There isn't a single FA SS I want the reds looking at. Not one. LF? nope. The acquisition of those two positions has to be via trade if at all.

The Astros and Pirates got worse, not better. The Cubs? lateral movement.(The Cubs theme song should be Glory Days) The Brewers got significantly better. I like their new rotation and their pen. But that is an awful defense, and their offense is not better than the Reds. The Cardinals are like a gator circling the drain. Eventually they will bottom out, but watch yer butt, cuz they can still bite. Garcia will likely imprive his overall numbers, giving them three very, very good starters. But that defense is awful, and the offense has some questions too. Freese being 100% healthy would help, but he had a serious foot injury... twice in one season. I'm betting it isn't 100% until JUne/July.

So, how do the Reds improve? Stubbs needs to be a 25-30HR guy, and solidify the 6th spot in the order. Bruce needs to be the Bruce of the 2nd half of the season. Etc. etc.

I'm content with minor moves from this point on.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 02:03 PM
IMO the internet has made people extremely impatient and a little too sure of the depth of their own knowledge of situations of which they only have partial knowledge. I'll be happy to listen to people complain when therr is something to complain about but honestly at this point it's just kind of annoying.

Some of us find it "annoying" - to use your word - when posters comment on people's "patience" and their "depth of knowledge". Now, that's annoying.

As for the Reds, hopefully they will soon make moves to improve the team, because they need to.

RedsManRick
12-20-2010, 02:05 PM
wrong thread...

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 02:14 PM
Nope.

Are the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Brewers, Cards, Dodgers, etc., all lacking in perspective? Why are these teams out there using the off-season to try to get better players?

Only the Reds conveniently seem to view sitting still as progress. It isn't.

It would be different if the Reds had a left handed hitting lead off left fielder waiting in house; an all-around shortstop waiting in house. It's possible someone may emerge, but not likely.

Most good teams don't sit still and call it perspective. In any sport.

I think the statement was that posters needed to sit back and get some perspective, not the team.

I'm not sure that the NYY, Cards or Dodgers have done anything that makes me jealous. The Phillies and BoSox play with monopoly money and the Brewers are depleting their farm system for a short term party.

I love a GM who does things properly on their terms. This is what I was saying in the other thread which quickly spiraled out of control. Does anyone actually think that Jocketty isn't trying to upgrade? Like KC offered Greinke for Gomes and he declined? Or that Theo has been begging him to take Ellsbury for a song and he hung up? He has said in the press that he wants a leadoff hitter. Do we think that he really doesn't believe this?

This team doesn't have to go all in this year. I like having a young team to watch grow up and compete. The last thing we need is for Walt to act like he's never been here before and start dealing himself into 4th place.

pedro
12-20-2010, 02:16 PM
Some of us find it "annoying" - to use your word - when posters comment on people's "patience" and their "depth of knowledge". Now, that's annoying.

As for the Reds, hopefully they will soon make moves to improve the team, because they need to.

We're all on the outside, there's only so much we can know and well, the season doesn't start for 5 months. Sorry if that offends you but that's the facts.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 02:22 PM
We're all on the outside, there's only so much we can know and well, the season doesn't start for 5 months. Sorry if that offends you but that's the facts.

Your choice of words offend, not the fact that a message board is obviously rife with speculation.

I have no doubt Jocketty is trying to improve the team. I also have no doubt that he is unwilling to overpay badly for players, which is proper.

But I also think the Reds are competing with the Brewers and Cards, and ultimately the Phils and others, and I see these teams being pro-active and getting things done.

If the Reds' delay is because they are bargaining and doing due diligence and making sure the deal is right, that's fine.

If the Reds' delay is because they plan to add only leftover players who otherwise can't get a contract, that's not fine. Nor is it fine, in my view, for the Reds to just sit still.

pedro
12-20-2010, 02:24 PM
Your choice of words offend, not the fact that a message board is obviously rife with speculation.

I have no doubt Jocketty is trying to improve the team. I also have no doubt that he is unwilling to overpay badly for players, which is proper.

But I also think the Reds are competing with the Brewers and Cards, and ultimately the Phils and others, and I see these teams being pro-active and getting things done.

If the Reds' delay is because they are bargaining and doing due diligence and making sure the deal is right, that's fine.

If the Reds' delay is because they plan to add only leftover players who otherwise can't get a contract, that's not fine. Nor is it fine, in my view, for the Reds to just sit still.


Any of these teams get a 6 year deal with a budding superstar done for 51 million?

Just asking.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 02:32 PM
Any of these teams get a 6 year deal with a budding superstar done for 51 million?

Just asking.

Budding superstar, we'll see.

Sorry to be demanding, but I'm not satisfied with the Reds just keeping their own good players. I want positive additions.

Caveat Emperor
12-20-2010, 02:33 PM
Any of these teams get a 6 year deal with a budding superstar done for 51 million?

Just asking.

Or, for that matter, any of those teams bringing back 23 y/o, 100 MPH+ lefty for his first full major-league season?

Kc61
12-20-2010, 02:37 PM
Or, for that matter, any of those teams bringing back 23 y/o, 100 MPH+ lefty for his first full major-league season?


And have the Reds added a former Cy Young award winner like the Brewers have?

Have the Reds added a top caliber starter like the Phillies have?

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 02:37 PM
Your choice of words offend, not the fact that a message board is obviously rife with speculation.

I have no doubt Jocketty is trying to improve the team. I also have no doubt that he is unwilling to overpay badly for players, which is proper.

But I also think the Reds are competing with the Brewers and Cards, and ultimately the Phils and others, and I see these teams being pro-active and getting things done.

If the Reds' delay is because they are bargaining and doing due diligence and making sure the deal is right, that's fine.

If the Reds' delay is because they plan to add only leftover players who otherwise can't get a contract, that's not fine. Nor is it fine, in my view, for the Reds to just sit still.

What have the Cards done exactly?

Freaking out about what the rest of the league is doing is not the right way to run a team. The Cards have done nothing. The Brewers have traded away the farm for basically the very, very near term. There is nothing we can do about the Phillies, though it remains to be seen if they can afford this lifestyle long term. Remember when Zona went all in, then all out?

You have a plan, you stick to that plan. The plan is to build an organization that can be competitive in the long-run. If a transaction is there to be done that fits into the plan, I'd be willing to bet that it will happen. But watching the Cards get Berkman isn't making me panic.

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 02:39 PM
And have the Reds added a former Cy Young award winner like the Brewers have?

Have the Reds added a top caliber starter like the Phillies have?

The Phillies are the millionaire neighbors to the Reds middle-upper class family. Just because Philly brings home a Bentley doesn't mean the Reds need to go out and get a Benz. If they do, that's when you invite serious problems.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 02:40 PM
What have the Cards done exactly?


You have a plan, you stick to that plan. The plan is to build an organization that can be competitive in the long-run. If a transaction is there to be done that fits into the plan, I'd be willing to bet that it will happen. But watching the Cards get Berkman isn't making me panic.

Again, the panic word. Nobody is panicking. Some of us are disappointed so far.

If the "plan" involves drafting, developing -- and sitting still regardless of whether your needs are all met -- then it's a crummy plan.

"Going with kids" shouldn't be a cop out. It shouldn't relieve a FO from the responsibility of trying to get over the top by filling needs.

pedro
12-20-2010, 02:44 PM
I just get a little Veruca Salt feeling....

YouTube - Veruca Salt - I Want It Now (Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRTkCHE1sS4)

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 02:54 PM
Again, the panic word. Nobody is panicking. Some of us are disappointed so far.

If the "plan" involves drafting, developing -- and sitting still regardless of whether your needs are all met -- then it's a crummy plan.

"Going with kids" shouldn't be a cop out. It shouldn't relieve a FO from the responsibility of trying to get over the top by filling needs.

Cincy isn't going with kids. They are going with a team who has a mix of younger players with vets. The entire team has "been there before".

And many were disappointed last Dec 20th.

REDREAD
12-20-2010, 03:07 PM
I think Berkman still has some AB's left but at 8 million bucks and with his defense it's a very risky move. Not sure I'd be happy if that's how the Reds chose to spend their money.
.

I wonder if the Reds signed Berkman for 8 million (and it ate up their remaining payflex), what the reaction here would be? Seems very risky.
Berkman was awesome at one time. He might rebound, but on the other hand, Gomes might outproduce him at the plate and in the field.

If Grienke required giving up Stubbs, forget it. IMO, Stubbs is a crucial part of this team. I wouldn't want to create a monster hole in CF (that Hiesley can't fill) just for the upgrade of Homer to Grienke.

RedsManRick
12-20-2010, 03:40 PM
How many wins does the current team project to? How about the Cards? The Brewers? I've yet to see anybody put forth a comprehensive analysis of where the Reds stand vis-a-vis our most likely competition. I've yet to see a strong case made that we're in deep trouble if we don't make a big move. The Cards finished 5 games out. The Brewers 14! Have the Cards gotten better? Maybe. Have the Brewers, certainly. Are the Reds suddenly behind the 8 ball? Not even close.

Comparing the number of moves our competitors make compared to the Reds is an awfully silly way to go about assessing things. The Cardinals traded defense for offense while adding salary. Good for them. The Brewers mortgaged their future for one last run at it with Prince Fielder around. Good for them. We aren't those teams. We have our own circumstances and must make decisions accordingly. Trying to play keep-up-with-the-Joneses leads you in to making the wrong moves for the wrong reasons.

Every single team in baseball has weaknesses and the Reds are no exception, to be sure. But why equate trade & signing activity with improvement? Shuffling deck chairs can be exciting, but it doesn't get you there any faster. Adding recognizable names can create buzz, but what's the real implication in terms of wins next year. The year after? The year after that?

If nothing else happens this off-season, the Reds are already in the mix. There are no reasonable moves left to be made which would make the Reds overwhelming favorites. There are no uniquely talented players who must be acquired now or never. All of the "upgrades" I've seen discussed are either hardly sure things or add significant salary -- or both. We can only take on a big salary if we move one, and it doesn't sound like Phillips or Cordero are going anywhere. Simply adding a different flavor of league average at best LF or SS doesn't improve the team.

Will Walt pursue a proven, above average LF or SS? Has he shopped Cordero? Alonso? Did he pursue Greinke? Has he asked about Reyes or Beltran? Who knows? Maybe he has and simply came up empty. Maybe he's on the phone with Sandy Alderson right now. None of us has any real insight. But I guarantee you Walt and his staff are not just sitting on their hands counting the days until Spring.

Like it or not, money is tight. To what degree? We can debate all we want, but Walt hasn't been known to lie and he says we're pretty much up against the budget ceiling. There are two things Walt has been consistent about in his approach to date: Don't screw it up and keep your mouth shut until you have something to talk about. Who thought we'd be signing Chapman? Many of us were upset last year by the lack of activity and then BAM. We can debate ad infinitum whether or not some big move will be made. But recent history tells us that we probably won't know about it until the ink is dry.

This team has a solid chance in 2011. If we add talent, that chance goes up. And we all hope the chance goes up. But bemoaning the lack of visible activity with 3+ months left to go, with no idea about what's actually happening behind the scenes and on the basis that we can divine the plan from what we've seen and heard so far is just plain silly.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2010, 03:42 PM
Again, the panic word. Nobody is panicking. Some of us are disappointed so far.

If the "plan" involves drafting, developing -- and sitting still regardless of whether your needs are all met -- then it's a crummy plan.

"Going with kids" shouldn't be a cop out. It shouldn't relieve a FO from the responsibility of trying to get over the top by filling needs.

If it smells like a duck and quacks like a duck, isn't it probably a duck, Kc? Right now, panic seems as good a word as any.

The "plan" is to see how the young people mesh and improve with the veterans.
Right now, the Reds have less holes than any team in the division. They hav less questions than any team in the division. They have fewer offensive black holes than any team in the division. (When your supposed worst player is league average and a year removed from an 850+ OPS or a slick-fielding SS who just finished his year with a 750+ OPS and a 1.0 WAR, you can't really complain about a lack of movement, IMO.)

The batting order, as composed, is likely:
Phillips 2B
Stubbs CF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Gomes LF
Hanigan/ Hernandez C
Janish SS

The bench, as the team is composed, is Cairo as middle infielder, Francisco as corner IF, Heisey as fourth OF, and a fifth OFer from Edmonds, Sappelt, Dorn, or Frazier.

Pretty weak bench, but Jocketty (again) has three months to make it stronger.

The pitching staff looks like:
Arroyo SP
Cueto SP
Bailey SP
Wood SP
Volquez SP
Leake SP/ RP
Ondrusek RP
Chapman RP
Masset S/U
Arredondo S/U
Bray RP/ LOOGY
Cordero Closer

That's the best 1-12 staff in the division, certainly, and has a claim as being one of the best in baseball. (When your weak link is likely your league average closer, life is good.)

pedro
12-20-2010, 03:43 PM
How many wins does the current team project to? How about the Cards? The Brewers? I've yet to see anybody put forth a comprehensive analysis of where the Reds stand vis-a-vis our most likely competition. I've yet to see a strong case made that we're in deep trouble if we don't make a big move. The Cards finished 5 games out. The Brewers 14! Have the Cards gotten better? Maybe. Have the Brewers, certainly. Are the Reds suddenly behind the 8 ball? Not even close.

Comparing the number of moves our competitors make compared to the Reds is an awfully silly way to go about assessing things. The Cardinals traded defense for offense while adding salary. Good for them. The Brewers mortgaged their future for one last run at it with Prince Fielder around. Good for them. We aren't those teams. We have our own circumstances and must make decisions accordingly. Trying to play keep-up-with-the-Joneses leads you in to making the wrong moves for the wrong reasons.

Every single team in baseball has weaknesses and the Reds are no exception, to be sure. But why equate trade & signing activity with improvement? Shuffling deck chairs can be exciting, but it doesn't get you there any faster. Adding recognizable names can create buzz, but what's the real implication in terms of wins next year. The year after? The year after that?

If nothing else happens this off-season, the Reds are already in the mix. There are no reasonable moves left to be made which would make the Reds overwhelming favorites. There are no uniquely talented players who must be acquired now or never. All of the "upgrades" I've seen discussed are either hardly sure things or add significant salary -- or both. We can only take on a big salary if we move one, and it doesn't sound like Phillips or Cordero are going anywhere. Simply adding a different flavor of league average or best LF or SS doesn't improve the team.

Will Walt pursue a proven, above average LF or SS? Has he shopped Cordero? Alonso? Did he pursue Greinke? Has he asked about Reyes or Beltran? Who knows? Maybe he has and simply came up empty. Maybe he's on the phone with Sandy Alderson right now. None of us has any real insight. But I guarantee you Walt and his staff are not just sitting on their hands counting the days until Spring.

Like it or not, money is tight. To what degree? We can debate all we want, but Walt hasn't been known to lie and he says we're pretty much up against the budget ceiling. There are two things Walt has been consistent about in his approach to date it's this: Don't screw it up and keep your mouth shut until you have something to talk about. Who thought we'd be signing Chapman? Many of us were upset last year by the lack of activity and then BAM. We can debate ad infinitum whether or not some big move will be made.

This team has a solid chance in 2011. If we add talent, that chance goes up. And we all hope the chance goes up. But bemoaning the lack of visible activity with 3+ months left to go and with no idea about what's actually happening behind the scenes is just plain silly.


Good post.

Hoosier Red
12-20-2010, 03:49 PM
Again, the panic word. Nobody is panicking. Some of us are disappointed so far.

If the "plan" involves drafting, developing -- and sitting still regardless of whether your needs are all met -- then it's a crummy plan.

"Going with kids" shouldn't be a cop out. It shouldn't relieve a FO from the responsibility of trying to get over the top by filling needs.

I guess I don't understand the hairs you're splitting here.

I guess you're disappointed in the notion that the Reds will not get a LF or a SS. Obviously you recognize that the offseason is only half over, so your disappointment stems from the assumption that the Reds are not interested in signing/trading for a better SS or LF? Is that correct?

One thing I've tried to train myself not to do is the "X player was available, I wanted X player, we should have gotten him."
I'd like for Walt to find a Left handed Platoon Partner for Gomes. If that guy's already on the squad, whether Alonso or Francisco, fine. I want improved production out of LF, that seems to be a reasonable goal. I don't care if it's not Josh Willingham or David DeJesus, I'm happy to let the people who know decide, but I'll try to save my disappointment for if "their move or nonmove pans out."

In this way, I don't get too worked up over the off-season. I want the team to have more wins in 2011 than they had in 2010, however they get there is up to Walt and Big Bob.

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 03:50 PM
How many wins does the current team project to? How about the Cards? The Brewers? I've yet to see anybody put forth a comprehensive analysis of where the Reds stand vis-a-vis our most likely competition. I've yet to see a strong case made that we're in deep trouble if we don't make a big move. The Cards finished 5 games out. The Brewers 14! Have the Cards gotten better? Maybe. Have the Brewers, certainly. Are the Reds suddenly behind the 8 ball? Not even close.

Comparing the number of moves our competitors make compared to the Reds is an awfully silly way to go about assessing things. The Cardinals traded defense for offense while adding salary. Good for them. The Brewers mortgaged their future for one last run at it with Prince Fielder around. Good for them. We aren't those teams. We have our own circumstances and must make decisions accordingly. Trying to play keep-up-with-the-Joneses leads you in to making the wrong moves for the wrong reasons.

Every single team in baseball has weaknesses and the Reds are no exception, to be sure. But why equate trade & signing activity with improvement? Shuffling deck chairs can be exciting, but it doesn't get you there any faster. Adding recognizable names can create buzz, but what's the real implication in terms of wins next year. The year after? The year after that?

If nothing else happens this off-season, the Reds are already in the mix. There are no reasonable moves left to be made which would make the Reds overwhelming favorites. There are no uniquely talented players who must be acquired now or never. All of the "upgrades" I've seen discussed are either hardly sure things or add significant salary -- or both. We can only take on a big salary if we move one, and it doesn't sound like Phillips or Cordero are going anywhere. Simply adding a different flavor of league average or best LF or SS doesn't improve the team.

Will Walt pursue a proven, above average LF or SS? Has he shopped Cordero? Alonso? Did he pursue Greinke? Has he asked about Reyes or Beltran? Who knows? Maybe he has and simply came up empty. Maybe he's on the phone with Sandy Alderson right now. None of us has any real insight. But I guarantee you Walt and his staff are not just sitting on their hands counting the days until Spring.

Like it or not, money is tight. To what degree? We can debate all we want, but Walt hasn't been known to lie and he says we're pretty much up against the budget ceiling. There are two things Walt has been consistent about in his approach to date it's this: Don't screw it up and keep your mouth shut until you have something to talk about. Who thought we'd be signing Chapman? Many of us were upset last year by the lack of activity and then BAM. We can debate ad infinitum whether or not some big move will be made.

This team has a solid chance in 2011. If we add talent, that chance goes up. And we all hope the chance goes up. But bemoaning the lack of visible activity with 3+ months left to go, with no idea about what's actually happening behind the scenes and on the basis that we can divine the plan from what we've seen and heard so far is just plain silly.

Agree. Agree. Agree.

Eric_the_Red
12-20-2010, 03:54 PM
Your choice of words offend, not the fact that a message board is obviously rife with speculation.

I have no doubt Jocketty is trying to improve the team. I also have no doubt that he is unwilling to overpay badly for players, which is proper.

But I also think the Reds are competing with the Brewers and Cards, and ultimately the Phils and others, and I see these teams being pro-active and getting things done.

If the Reds' delay is because they are bargaining and doing due diligence and making sure the deal is right, that's fine.

If the Reds' delay is because they plan to add only leftover players who otherwise can't get a contract, that's not fine. Nor is it fine, in my view, for the Reds to just sit still.

So which is it- is Jocketty trying to improve or not? I'm confused. You acknowledge that WJ is working on things, and that he doesn't want to make a move that may be overpaying, and then in the next breath you are questioning the method by which Jocketty is operating.

If panic is not an appropriate word, then how about "antsy"?

Kc61
12-20-2010, 03:54 PM
I'd like for Walt to find a Left handed Platoon Partner for Gomes. If that guy's already on the squad, whether Alonso or Francisco, fine. I want improved production out of LF, that seems to be a reasonable goal. I don't care if it's not Josh Willingham or David DeJesus, I'm happy to let the people who know decide, but I'll try to save my disappointment for if "their move or nonmove pans out."

In this way, I don't get too worked up over the off-season. I want the team to have more wins in 2011 than they had in 2010, however they get there is up to Walt and Big Bob.


I don't see the platoon left fielder on the Reds roster or the AAA roster. I don't see a shortstop who can hit on the Reds roster or the AAA roster.

I don't see a complete bench on the Reds roster and perhaps not from the AAA roster. Somebody posted Cairo as the middle infield replacement. Sure.

Seems to me virtually every other team in baseball has been addressing its needs, or making moves to try. I don't see the Reds doing anything so far.

Sure, there's still plenty of time. Sure, the Reds can fix this. I hope they do.

But nobody will convince me that the correct road for this club is to sit tight. It is precisely at the point in its development when it needs to fix the holes, add the finishing touches.

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 03:57 PM
I don't see the platoon left fielder on the Reds roster or the AAA roster. I don't see a shortstop who can hit on the Reds roster or the AAA roster.

I don't see a complete bench on the Reds roster and perhaps not from the AAA roster. Somebody posted Cairo as the middle infield replacement. Sure.

Seems to me virtually every other team in baseball has been addressing its needs, or making moves to try. I don't see the Reds doing anything so far.

Sure, there's still plenty of time. Sure, the Reds can fix this. I hope they do.

But nobody will convince me that the correct road for this club is to sit tight. It is precisely at the point in its development when it needs to fix the holes, add the finishing touches.

I'm not sure that anyone is saying that the Reds shouldn't look to upgrade certain positions.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 04:04 PM
So which is it- is Jocketty trying to improve or not? I'm confused. You acknowledge that WJ is working on things, and that he doesn't want to make a move that may be overpaying, and then in the next breath you are questioning the method by which Jocketty is operating.

If panic is not an appropriate word, then how about "antsy"?

Let me clear up any confusion, then.

First - I'm not panicked or antsy. The Reds will be pretty good and entertaining in any event. Stagnant, perhaps unimproved, but pretty good and entertaining.

Second - I don't doubt that Walt is trying - within the constraints he's been dealt. I have no doubt he is talking up a storm. He'll probably do some minor stuff, like adding back Nix or a similar replacement.

But, third - I do not see a real commitment by this ballclub to getting over the top. When a team in pro sports in 2010 is trying to become a champion, you generally can tell. They spend a little more. They are, perhaps, more aggressive in trading youth for experience.

In the Reds case, I see more of the same. Waiting for the cheap guys at the end of the off-season. Unwilling to make a bold move to bring the team in competition with the best ballclubs.

And, fourth - this could change in the next couple of months. Most of the big names are off the market by now, but it's possible the Reds can make a positive move before the spring. I'm only commenting on what's happened so far.

Hope that clears things up.

edabbs44
12-20-2010, 04:16 PM
Let me clear up any confusion, then.

First - I'm not panicked or antsy. The Reds will be pretty good and entertaining in any event. Stagnant, perhaps unimproved, but pretty good and entertaining.

Second - I don't doubt that Walt is trying - within the constraints he's been dealt. I have no doubt he is talking up a storm. He'll probably do some minor stuff, like adding back Nix or a similar replacement.

But, third - I do not see a real commitment by this ballclub to getting over the top. When a team in pro sports in 2010 is trying to become a champion, you generally can tell. They spend a little more. They are, perhaps, more aggressive in trading youth for experience.

In the Reds case, I see more of the same. Waiting for the cheap guys at the end of the off-season. Unwilling to make a bold move to bring the team in competition with the best ballclubs.

And, fourth - this could change in the next couple of months. Most of the big names are off the market by now, but it's possible the Reds can make a positive move before the spring. I'm only commenting on what's happened so far.

Hope that clears things up.

The bold there is an issue for me. We have no idea if they are unwilling or not. Maybe KC wanted them to make a stupid move for Greinke, not bold.

And I think giving $30MM to Chapman qualifies as pretty bold.

RedsManRick
12-20-2010, 04:25 PM
KC, what exactly are you arguing against? It seems to me you are making one of two arguments and I'm not sure which:

1) The Reds apparently don't think they need to improve and aren't actively trying to do so.

2) The Reds would like to improve, but simply aren't willing to pay the price they need pay to get it done.

Is your argument one of these or something else?

Kc61
12-20-2010, 04:25 PM
The bold there is an issue for me. We have no idea if they are unwilling or not. Maybe KC wanted them to make a stupid move for Greinke, not bold.

And I think giving $30MM to Chapman qualifies as pretty bold.


I agree that Chapman was a bold move. But the Reds recent history is not to go after highly rated free agents or to make big trades. They seldom make bold moves. Didn't say never.

Nor do I want a stupid move.

But a good FO finds fair deals to fill needs. It's no excuse that one seller asked for too much. There are other teams to deal with, other free agents, other fish in the sea.

Again, we'll see, hopefully the Reds will make moves to improve the ballclub.

westofyou
12-20-2010, 04:25 PM
Maybe the Reds are unwilling to make a move for the sake of making a move.

Certainly many here aren't, but then again they don't have a job that depends on what sort of moves one makes.

But please continue to spin your wheels, traction will be achieved someday.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 04:29 PM
KC, what exactly are you arguing against? It seems to me you are making one of two arguments and I'm not sure which:

1) The Reds apparently don't think they need to improve and aren't actively trying to do so.

2) The Reds would like to improve, but simply aren't willing to pay the price they should be willing to pay to do so.

Is your argument one of these or something else?

You are asking me for the Reds' subjective reasoning. I don't know whether they are unwilling to deal because they love the current team; or whether they are just unwilling to pay the price. I don't know.

I do know, however, that other teams are actively making deals with free agents and trades and the Reds so far aren't. Whatever their mindset, I'd like to see improvement through good personnel moves.

pedro
12-20-2010, 04:30 PM
Trading for Rolen was pretty bold if you ask me, as was signing Chapman.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 04:31 PM
IMO the internet has made people extremely impatient and a little too sure of the depth of their own knowledge of situations of which they only have partial knowledge. I'll be happy to listen to people complain when therr is something to complain about but honestly at this point it's just kind of annoying.

So feel free to stop browsing this message board, or the Internet for that matter, if it's so annoying.

There were two or three people that had the perfect blend of comprehensive understanding of the game and a smooth flow of articulation that used to post here, but I'd guess that statements like this (amongst other unrelated things) have long since driven them away.

Some of the people posting opinions in this thread that disagree with your own perspective have been around the game, the Reds, and this particular site longer than you have. So I'd think twice before making sweeping generalizations and dismissing people that are "annoying" like the statement above.

pedro
12-20-2010, 04:33 PM
So feel free to stop browsing this messageboard, or the Internet for that matter, if it's so annoying.

Some of the people posting opinions in this thread that disagree with your own perspective have been around the game, the Reds, and this particular site longer than you have. So I'd think twice when you making sweeping generalizations and dismissing people that are "annoying" like the statement above.

So what? I find the "freaking out" mentality ridiculous and over the top. Thats' my opinion. Sorry if YOU don't like it. Frankly I don't care.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 04:36 PM
So what? I find the "freaking out" mentality ridiculous and over the top. Thats' my opinion. Sorry if YOU don't like it. Frankly I don't care.

I think that most of the people who are in favor of doing something are not "freaking out" or "panicking". They (we) are just lamenting pure inertia and a lack of daring to be great.

westofyou
12-20-2010, 04:38 PM
Inertia?

That means nothing has happened.

Is that what is going on?

pedro
12-20-2010, 04:38 PM
I think that most of the people who are in favor of doing something are not "freaking out" or "panicking". They (we) are just lamenting pure inertia and a lack of daring to be great.

Again, none of us have a clue what the Reds are and aren't trying to do so from my perspective all the bomb throwing at the Reds FO is just that. It certainly isn't the nuanced discussion you seem to think you are promoting. Maybe you might want to think of that the next time your are accusing someone of being the reason other posters have stopped participating in RZ.

Hoosier Red
12-20-2010, 04:40 PM
You are asking me for the Reds' subjective reasoning. I don't know whether they are unwilling to deal because they love the current team; or whether they are just unwilling to pay the price. I don't know.

I do know, however, that other teams are actively making deals with free agents and trades and the Reds so far aren't. Whatever their mindset, I'd like to see improvement through good personnel moves.

I think many have made the same argument as Kc61 on the flip side. The Reds don't have to do anything to improve(Kc61 certainyl argues that) and there is still time to improve(Kc61 has acknowledged that but again many people don't think they need to make a move.)

No one really knows what the Reds think. I happen to agree with those who feel the Reds will be better in 2011 than they were in 2010 even if they make no changes. But I agree with Kc61 that the best option for LF is probably not on the roster at this point. I however do think AAA provides plenty of options for the bench whether they be Valaika, Frazier, Alonso, Francisco, Heisey, or Sappelt. You're essentially talking 2-3 positions(Cairo's already signed, Hanigan/Hernandez is the back up catcher, and there are 12 pitchers)

But perhaps Kc61's argument is best framed as "If the Reds don't make any moves of substance, I'll be disappointed."

TRF
12-20-2010, 04:44 PM
I don't see the platoon left fielder on the Reds roster or the AAA roster. I don't see a shortstop who can hit on the Reds roster or the AAA roster.


Then you aren't looking.

Dorn, Francisco and possibly Alonso in LF.

Cozart was the best SS in AAA last year.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 04:44 PM
Inertia?

That means nothing has happened.

Is that what is going on?

The major league roster has changed?

westofyou
12-20-2010, 04:47 PM
The major league roster has changed?

Rhodes gone?

Nix gone?

So yes it as changed... thus really not inertia.

Cedric
12-20-2010, 04:48 PM
I think many have made the same argument as Kc61 on the flip side. The Reds don't have to do anything to improve(Kc61 certainyl argues that) and there is still time to improve(Kc61 has acknowledged that but again many people don't think they need to make a move.)

No one really knows what the Reds think. I happen to agree with those who feel the Reds will be better in 2011 than they were in 2010 even if they make no changes. But I agree with Kc61 that the best option for LF is probably not on the roster at this point. I however do think AAA provides plenty of options for the bench whether they be Valaika, Frazier, Alonso, Francisco, Heisey, or Sappelt. You're essentially talking 2-3 positions(Cairo's already signed, Hanigan/Hernandez is the back up catcher, and there are 12 pitchers)

But perhaps Kc61's argument is best framed as "If the Reds don't make any moves of substance, I'll be disappointed."

If Rolen/Gomes/Phillips regress the Reds are in for major trouble. The Reds better hope Rolen is great again next year and better hope he never gets hurt. Expecting Cairo to pull another miracle isn't exactly the big off season move I hoped for.

Still plenty of time though I guess. Doesn't look good from Jocketty's comments though.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 04:50 PM
Then you aren't looking.

Dorn, Francisco and possibly Alonso in LF.

Cozart was the best SS in AAA last year.


Let's take them one at a time.

Dorn - Reds haven't even seen fit to put him on the 40 man roster. They haven't given him any major league time, not even a September call up. I don't see how he becomes the left fielder.

Francisco - hardly played outfield last year, almost entirely 3B. Reportedly suspect defensively in the outfield, certainly hasn't had the experience to play out there in the big leagues.

Alonso - Reds gave up on his LF experiment last year. They moved him back to first base, apparently for good.

Cozart - hit .255 with a .310 OBP at AAA last year.

Any others you want to propose?

Benihana
12-20-2010, 04:50 PM
Maybe the Reds are unwilling to make a move for the sake of making a move.

Certainly many here aren't, but then again they don't have a job that depends on what sort of moves one makes.


I'm sorry. Your statement has too many double negatives for me to understand.

westofyou
12-20-2010, 04:51 PM
I'm sorry. Your statement has too many double negatives for me to understand.

Maybe they are doing stuff but not telling you

Benihana
12-20-2010, 04:54 PM
Maybe they are doing stuff but not telling you

Maybe they aren't doing stuff and telling you.

Ron Madden
12-20-2010, 04:55 PM
I see this as Fans expressing legitimate concern more so than just freaking out but I do agree there is still plenty of time to make improvements. I believe this is worth repeating,

Benihana
12-20-2010, 04:56 PM
Let's take them one at a time.

Dorn - Reds haven't even seen fit to put him on the 40 man roster. They haven't given him any major league time, not even a September call up. I don't see how he becomes the left fielder.

Francisco - hardly played outfield last year, almost entirely 3B. Reportedly suspect defensively in the outfield, certainly hasn't had the experience to play out there in the big leagues.

Alonso - Reds gave up on his LF experiment last year. They moved him back to first base, apparently for good.

Cozart - hit .255 with a .310 OBP at AAA last year.

Any others you want to propose?

Don't forget there wasn't a single team in all of baseball that was willing to take a $25,000 flyer that Danny Dorn was worth a major league roster spot. Not-a-one. Not even Pittsburgh or Kansas City.

We all know Yonder Alonso is not a LF.

Just saying.

westofyou
12-20-2010, 04:57 PM
Maybe they aren't doing stuff and telling you.

Nope, my message box is empty

Benihana
12-20-2010, 04:59 PM
For the record, I hope this thread is ridiculous in hindsight and I eat crow, because either:

1. The Reds do make a major move this offseason and upgrade a weakness.

or

2. The incumbent players continue to improve so much that the Reds win the division (and the pennant) in 2011 without making any upgrades.

I recognize that either situation could indeed occur, and I would welcome either scenario. I fear what will happen, however, if this thread is not later proven ridiculous.

pedro
12-20-2010, 05:01 PM
I believe this is worth repeating,

That's fine but tossing bombs insinuating that the GM stupid and inert really just goes past "concern" and into hyperbolic territory IMO.

camisadelgolf
12-20-2010, 05:05 PM
Cozart was the best SS in AAA last year.
You don't mean all of AAA, do you? Luis Rodriguez, Josh Rodriguez, Elliot Johnson, Justin Sellers, Chris Nelson, Ryan Rohlinger, Mike McCoy, Donnie Murphy, Steve Tolleson, and maybe a few others (Oswaldo Navarro, Eduardo Nunez, Luis Figueroa, etc.) could be used to argue against that.

Ron Madden
12-20-2010, 05:05 PM
That's fine but tossing bombs insinuating that the GM stupid and inert really just goes past "concern" and into hyperbolic territory IMO.

I haven't tossed any bombs that I'm aware of. Not intentionally anyway. ;)

Roy Tucker
12-20-2010, 05:07 PM
There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speaking their minds
Getting so much resistance from behind

Cedric
12-20-2010, 05:09 PM
I can't imagine how people could be any more reasonable in discussing concerns as the posters on this thread have been.

If someone is "annoyed" by discussion and concern on Redszone, than I think they are on the wrong website. We fans overanalyze everything here :)

pedro
12-20-2010, 05:14 PM
I can't imagine how people could be any more reasonable in discussing concerns as the posters on this thread have been.

If someone is "annoyed" by discussion and concern on Redszone, than I think they are on the wrong website. We fans overanalyze everything here :)

Really? Calling the actions of the GM "sheer stupidity" over something that the poster admittedly doesn't even know is happening is "reasonable"?

hmmm.

Benihana
12-20-2010, 05:21 PM
Really? Calling the actions of the GM "sheer stupidity" over something that the poster admittedly doesn't even know is happening is "reasonable"?

hmmm.

I described a scenario that would be "sheer stupidity". I even clarified it later. If you have a problem with that, you can PM me. Otherwise, move on.

Red in Chicago
12-20-2010, 05:23 PM
Enough already.

Captain Hook
12-20-2010, 05:47 PM
I only bring this up because it's usually one reason that gets brought up when people argue that the offense must be improved but, I don't get why most people predict a regression from Phillips and Gomes.It almost seems like it's assumed that their production will be down in 2011.Neither are RBs in the NFL so 30 really isn't that old.Neither really had career years in 2010.Phillips played through injuries for a good part of the season and Gomes was probably overused.Gomes could potentially be much more productive in a little more of a limited roll like we saw on 2009.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say they'll both have better years in 2011 then they did in 2010.

Brutus
12-20-2010, 05:55 PM
I only bring this up because it's usually one reason that gets brought up when people argue that the offense must be improved but, I don't get why most people predict a regression from Phillips and Gomes.It almost seems like it's assumed that they're production will be down in 2011.Neither are RBs in the NFL so 30 really isn't that old.Neither really had career years in 2010.Phillips played through injuries for a good part of the season and Gomes was probably overused.Gomes could potentially be much more productive in a little more of a limited roll like we saw on 2009.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say they'll both have better years in 2011 then they did in 2010.

Phillips has been showing signs of deteriorating. I use that word loosely so I'm not predicting sudden doom, but consider:

His speed has been in decline -- in fact, his "speed score" has gone down the past 3 years

His power has been down a bit -- his ISO power has dropped each of the past 3 years (though I'll admit his discipline has improved a bit, so his overall OPS/wOBA numbers haven't suffered much)

And his defense, while still stellar, has not been as good the past few years (presumably from losing a step)

There's evidence to suggest Phillips is in fact declining, though I'll certainly confess it's not a smoking gun.

cincrazy
12-20-2010, 06:03 PM
The Reds are no worse, as of right now, than they were at the end of the 2010 season. But I think it's also fair to say they aren't any better. And with Milwaukee much improved, and St. Louis unlikely to stink bomb against under-.500 teams again, that could spell trouble.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2010, 06:04 PM
Phillips is trying to re-make himself as an offensive player, IMO. Defensively, he was just as good in 2010 than at any other time in his career.

But yeah, he may get old fast.

As for Gomes, I agree that he's a much better hitter when spotted against lefties only. A platoon would be ideal; he was pretty much in a platoon last season, however, until most of the rest of the OFers got hurt or went into a serious slump.

pedro
12-20-2010, 06:06 PM
The Reds are no worse, as of right now, than they were at the end of the 2010 season. But I think it's also fair to say they aren't any better. And with Milwaukee much improved, and St. Louis unlikely to stink bomb against under-.500 teams again, that could spell trouble.

I think there may be enough organic improvement from within to suggest that the Reds may well be better next year, even with assumed drop offs from Phillips and Rolen. Volquez and Chapman are going to add a lot of juice to the pitching staff and full season's worth of solid performance from Bruce and Stubbs will help losses from other areas.

pedro
12-20-2010, 06:10 PM
I'd still like to see some improvement, particularly in LF and perhaps SS but there is still some time.

cincrazy
12-20-2010, 06:14 PM
I think there may be enough organic improvement from within to suggest that the Reds may well be better next year, even with assumed drop offs from Phillips and Rolen. Volquez and Chapman are going to add a lot of juice to the pitching staff and full season's worth of solid performance from Bruce and Stubbs will help losses from other areas.

I see your point. It's just tough to tell. Bruce and Stubbs could click and a few of the young pitchers could peak, and we could be dynamite. Or, Stubbs could hit a wall, Bruce could be inconsistent, some young pitchers could struggle and/or get hurt, and the year could be a disaster.

My main concern is the decline of Rolen. He was such a key component of the team last year, and I'm not sure he can duplicate that season.

Ron Madden
12-20-2010, 06:20 PM
I think whoever the Reds choose to be Rolens back up will play a very important role and get plenty of AB's in 2011.

Let's hope they choose wisely.

Captain Hook
12-20-2010, 06:21 PM
I see your point. It's just tough to tell. Bruce and Stubbs could click and a few of the young pitchers could peak, and we could be dynamite. Or, Stubbs could hit a wall, Bruce could be inconsistent, some young pitchers could struggle and/or get hurt, and the year could be a disaster.

My main concern is the decline of Rolen. He was such a key component of the team last year, and I'm not sure he can duplicate that season.

Rolen's OPS in Sept. and Oct. was .668.The Reds were still able to pull away from the Cards to win the Central in that time frame.

Brutus
12-20-2010, 06:23 PM
Rolen's OPS in Sept. and Oct. was .668.The Reds were still able to pull away from the Cards to win the Central in that time frame.

Eh. That was more because the Cardinals were awful than anything the Reds did. The Reds took care of business in August when the offense was clicking on most cylinders. In September/October--not so much.

RedsManRick
12-20-2010, 06:25 PM
I do know, however, that other teams are actively making deals with free agents and trades and the Reds so far aren't.Your use of the word "actively" implies effort rather than results. Now, it's completely reasonable to say that "to date, the Reds have not yet signed (notable) free agents or made trades". But your language suggests that you think they aren't trying to do so.

There are 29 other teams; combined they have a whole bunch of needs which the Reds do not. Most teams have more holes than we do too. The Brewers are actively making moves? Well, they darn well better -- they won 77 games last year.

Nobody wants Walt to sit around and do nothing for the next 3 months. But the simple fact that he has yet to do so tells us very little about what is going to happen from this point forward.


Whatever their mindset, I'd like to see improvement through good personnel moves.
We all do. I don't believe you're getting any argument on this point.

Part of the reason nothing has happened yet is because of the "good" part of your statement. The Reds have a very specific set of needs and, given the budget, there are limited solutions. Which FAs have been signed or players traded where you feel Walt should have topped the offer?

We all want improvement. Everybody wants a better team. But it's a 6 month off-season. Patience -- no reason to beat that wish to death.

pedro
12-20-2010, 06:32 PM
I think whoever the Reds choose to be Rolens back up will play a very important role and get plenty of AB's in 2011.

Let's hope they choose wisely.

I'm definitely curious as to who the other IF they are going to carry on the roster is going to to be. Valaika didn't play a lot of SS in AAA last year and I'm not sure if that's just because they wanted him to get some experience at 2B and they wanted to promote Cozart or because they don't think he fields well enough at SS to hack it in the majors. I sure don't want to see Cairo play much in the MI.

Brutus
12-20-2010, 06:33 PM
Your use of the word "actively" implies effort rather than results. Now, it's completely reasonable to say that "to date, the Reds have not yet signed (notable) free agents or made trades". But your language suggests that you think they aren't trying to do so.

Nobody wants Walt to sit around and do nothing for the next 3 months. But the simple fact that he has yet to do so tells us very little about what is going to happen from this point forward.


We all do. I don't believe you're getting any argument on this point.

Part of the reason nothing has happened yet is because of the "good" part of your statement. The Reds have a very specific set of needs and, given the budget, there are limited solutions. Which FAs have been signed or players traded where you feel Walt should have topped the offer?

We all want improvement. Everybody wants a better team. But it's a 6 month off-season. Patience -- no reason to beat that wish to death.

The problem, Rick, is that the Reds haven't given much reason for people to think they're trying to do much (at least as it pertains to this offseason).

I realize there's some posturing going on, but everytime Jocketty is asked about a player or about talking to other clubs, he says that they haven't had any conversations, like the club they have, don't have room for payroll or some other variation. It's possible he's hiding his intentions, but right now, everything he's saying makes it sound like they're really not actively pursuing a whole lot.

So people are justified for thinking what they are not just because of the fact the Reds haven't done anything, but because they're telling us repeatedly they're not doing much. It is easy to rub folks the wrong way when you say you're not having any conversations at a meeting designed primarily for that. It's easy to rub them the wrong way when you say you've had zero conversations when it comes to a few of the top available players.

As I said: Jocketty has always played it close to the vest, and perhaps he's doing that now (though he was pretty forthcoming when they were chasing Cliff Lee last summer). But they're going out of their way to make it sound like they aren't trying too hard. And that's a little concerning.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 06:36 PM
Your use of the word "actively" implies effort rather than results. Now, it's completely reasonable to say that "to date, the Reds have not yet signed (notable) free agents or made trades". But your language suggests that you think they aren't trying to do so.

Nobody wants Walt to sit around and do nothing for the next 3 months. But the simple fact that he has yet to do so tells us very little about what is going to happen from this point forward.


We all do. I don't believe you're getting any argument on this point.

Part of the reason nothing has happened yet is because of the "good" part of your statement. The Reds have a very specific set of needs and, given the budget, there are limited solutions. Which FAs have been signed or players traded where you feel Walt should have topped the offer?

We all want improvement. Everybody wants a better team. But it's a 6 month off-season. Patience -- no reason to beat that wish to death.

I think I've said, perhaps a dozen times, that there is still time for the Reds to become more active and improve this off-season.

I used "actively" to indicate that other teams have been active and the Reds most definitely have not.

I do believe that some people do want Walt to sit back and not make moves. They want improvement from within. I disagree.

I think my position is clear and now let others speak on the subject.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2010, 06:39 PM
Who wants him to sit back and do nothing, Kc?

I see no one.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 06:41 PM
Who wants him to sit back and do nothing, Kc?

I see no one.


One or more posters said the Reds should improve by letting the prospects grow rather than making deals. Others have not been so forceful about it, but have implied the same.

Ron Madden
12-20-2010, 06:42 PM
I'm definitely curious as to who the other IF they are going to carry on the roster is going to to be. Valaika didn't play a lot of SS in AAA last year and I'm not sure if that's just because they wanted him to get some experience at 2B and they wanted to promote Cozart or because they don't think he fields well enough at SS to hack it in the majors. I sure don't want to see Cairo play much in the MI.

I agree. I'm not to thrilled with giving him very many AB's either.

RedsManRick
12-20-2010, 06:43 PM
I used "actively" to indicate that other teams have been active and the Reds most definitely have not.

Again, you are equating "active" with "having made deals". They are not the same thing.

A big part of the reason other teams have been more "active" is because they have a lot more holes to fill. When you have 10 holes, you can fill 5 of them and look really active. When you have 2, it's a big harder to seem "active".

The Reds have not yet made the upgrades you want them to make. You hope that are still trying to upgrade. That's it, right?

kaldaniels
12-20-2010, 07:10 PM
I can't help but think this thread is a kneejerk reaction to the Zach G. trade. But should it be?

The Red's offseason and the Greinke trade are isolated activities. The offseason is not even 1/2 over...why did this thread pop up?

I understand resources are "drying up", but I fail to see any reason for concern as of today. The Brewers-Greinke trade did nothing to cause me to question the brains/work ethic of the Reds' front office, though it certainly made the NL Central a tougher division next year.

Razor Shines
12-20-2010, 07:19 PM
I don't know what Walt has in mind and that's fine, I don't really need to know.

I do know that I'm not comfortable counting on Gomes/Heisey in LF or Rolen at 3rd. IMO Rolen's due for a big regression similar to what he did in the second half last season. And honestly if those positions aren't improved then I'm not comfortable with Janish at SS.

I do think that Bruce will produce a full season the way he ended last season, so that's a plus. I think Votto will be very good maybe equal to last season maybe a tick down from where he was last year.

I'm not worried right now. There are some deals that I would have hoped that the Reds could have made, but for whatever reason they didn't work out. I have enough faith in Jocketty that he will make some improvements this off season.

If we are in March and the team is the same I'll be worried for sure.

MartyFan
12-20-2010, 08:23 PM
Walt has said more than once that he LIKES THIS TEAM and doesn't see a real need to do a lot too it.

Kc61
12-20-2010, 08:39 PM
Again, you are equating "active" with "having made deals". They are not the same thing.

A big part of the reason other teams have been more "active" is because they have a lot more holes to fill. When you have 10 holes, you can fill 5 of them and look really active. When you have 2, it's a big harder to seem "active".

The Reds have not yet made the upgrades you want them to make. You hope that are still trying to upgrade. That's it, right?

Yes --

I'm not interested in a large quantity of deals. Other teams can make more deals, that's fine.

I'll settle for one or two real upgrades.

I want the quality improved, not necessarily quantity.

Caveat Emperor
12-20-2010, 09:36 PM
One or more posters said the Reds should improve by letting the prospects grow rather than making deals. Others have not been so forceful about it, but have implied the same.

Yup. Let your homegrown talent grow and prosper, both at the major league level and the minor league level. If the opportunity is there to make a deal or add a player at sensible cost (read: one that does not create holes in the farm system or at the major league level), go ahead and take it. But never lose sight of the fact that you're bringing back a 90+ win team where the overwhelming majority of your players on the upswing of their careers as opposed to the downswing.

I'm not saying that Walt should ignore efforts to improve the ballclub, but I am saying that the situation is not one where Walt needs to improve the ballclub significantly for the team to compete and win a postseason spot in 2011.

Also -- It's December 20th. Arguably the best trade in recent Reds history (Arroyo for Pena) was made on March 20th. There's plenty of time left for Walt to improve this club. In fact, I'd be shocked if he doesn't acquire another bench player / LH-bat to replace Nix in the outfield. Won't be a flashy name, but knowing Walt he'll find someone that fits the need exactly. Everyone needs to calm down and let the professionals do their job.

TRF
12-20-2010, 10:54 PM
Let's take them one at a time.

Dorn - Reds haven't even seen fit to put him on the 40 man roster. They haven't given him :beerme:any major league time, not even a September call up. I don't see how he becomes the left fielder.

Francisco - hardly played outfield last year, almost entirely 3B. Reportedly suspect defensively in the outfield, certainly hasn't had the experience to play out there in the big leagues.

Alonso - Reds gave up on his LF experiment last year. They moved him back to first base, apparently for good.

Cozart - hit .255 with a .310 OBP at AAA last year.

Any others you want to propose?

Nope. Don't. Ned too. You said platoon partner. All three are you left handed and kill righties.

Cozart was the best or one pf the best SS's at AAA last year. Mention someone available better.

corkedbat
12-21-2010, 01:03 AM
Let's take them one at a time.

Dorn - Reds haven't even seen fit to put him on the 40 man roster. They haven't given him any major league time, not even a September call up. I don't see how he becomes the left fielder.

Francisco - hardly played outfield last year, almost entirely 3B. Reportedly suspect defensively in the outfield, certainly hasn't had the experience to play out there in the big leagues.

Alonso - Reds gave up on his LF experiment last year. They moved him back to first base, apparently for good.

Cozart - hit .255 with a .310 OBP at AAA last year.

Any others you want to propose?

Agree KC61. If Dorn were going to get a shot, it would have already haapened. If Alonso or Francisco were considered legitmateLF options, one of them would have been in LF instead of first and third respectively and Todd Frazier would have been in their place.

Griffey012
12-21-2010, 01:07 AM
Here is what I see from the Reds perspective vs. the Brewers and Cadinals.

The Brewers traded the farm for 2 years of Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Prince Fielder is gone after this season, their defense is pretty ehh, their bullpen is ugly (Axford appeared to be a solid closer), and their farm system was just set back a few seasons. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, they are making one last run while they still have Fielder.

The Cardinals have made some pretty marginal moves, Berkman may or may not be a good move, but they have to constantly bring in pieces to appease to Pujols and try to keep him in town. They may have a short period of Pujols left, and Carpenter is getting in there in age. They are in WIN NOW mode.

The Reds, well we are building ourselves for sustained long term success, much like the Rays model and what the Twins are doing. After a few season of sustained success attendance will continue to rise, and the budget will continue to increase, the way we have seen the Twins payroll increase. When players get too expensive, we ship them out to the big boys for younger cheap players, because we can't keep them all, much like the Twins.

So let those other teams in the NL Central take a shot here and there for a one or two season run. It is going to be wiser for us to make small moves and take a shot at a rental player later in the season, when the players will be much cheaper.

Would you rather push extra hard for a 1 year run, or continue the model we are putting forth for a decade long run or sustained success?

corkedbat
12-21-2010, 01:29 AM
I said last week in a different thread that I felt Walt would still make t least one move and that I thought between the 2nd week of January and the week the pitchers and catchers report would be a likely time frame.

I'm positive there will be at least one signing/deal before ST. They will add a LH hitting OF (probably one capable of playing all three OF spots). Not saying it will be a major deal - possibly someone along the lines of Nix, but an addition will be made. I wouldn't rule out a big time shocker by Walt either.

corkedbat
12-21-2010, 01:49 AM
Here is what I see from the Reds perspective vs. the Brewers and Cadinals.

The Brewers traded the farm for 2 years of Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Prince Fielder is gone after this season, their defense is pretty ehh, their bullpen is ugly (Axford appeared to be a solid closer), and their farm system was just set back a few season. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, they are making one last run while they still have Fielder.

The Cardinals have made some pretty marginal moves, Berkman may or may not be a good move, but they have to constantly bring in pieces to appease to Pujols and try to keep him in town. They may have a short period of Pujols left, and Carpenter is getting in their in age. They are in WIN NOW mode.

The Reds, well we are building ourselves for sustained long term success, much like the Rays model and what the Twins are doing. After a few season of sustained success attendance will continue to rise, and the budget will continue to increase, the way we have seen the Twins payroll increase. When players get too expensive, we ship them out to the big boys for younger cheap players, because we can't keep them all, much like the Twins.

So let those other teams in the NL Central take a shot here and their for a one or two season run. It is going to be wiser for us to make small moves and take a shot at a rental play later in the season, when the players will be much cheaper.

Would you rather push extra hard for a 1 year run, or continue the model we are putting forth for a decade long run or sustained success?

I would feel better about not making a standing pat, if the Reds had done a better job of stocking legitimate Corner bats in the Minors.

- You've got Alonso, whose true value is argable and is blocked at is only defensive position bu Votto

- You've got Francisco who's got as much raw power as anyone in baseball, but has questionable plate discipline and nowhere to hide his defensive short comings in the National League.

- And you've got Todd Frazier, who has value in his versatility, but whose defense and bat are not gonna make you forget Scott Rolen if Rolen goes down and is not a viable 3-4-5 option.

Your best hopes for power infusions over the next three years are Mesoraco and YRod.

There's no excuse to be so thin in legitimate third basemen and corner OFers, but it's easy to see why they are when you look at the last three drafts.

The Reds may not add a middle of the order bat this year, but they will have to at some point. I have my doubts about Rolen and Gomes being adequate this year and I'm pretty certain they won't be two years from now.

If you're gonna have to do it anyway, now would be a good opportunity.

mth123
12-21-2010, 02:12 AM
Your use of the word "actively" implies effort rather than results. Now, it's completely reasonable to say that "to date, the Reds have not yet signed (notable) free agents or made trades". But your language suggests that you think they aren't trying to do so.

There are 29 other teams; combined they have a whole bunch of needs which the Reds do not. Most teams have more holes than we do too. The Brewers are actively making moves? Well, they darn well better -- they won 77 games last year.

Nobody wants Walt to sit around and do nothing for the next 3 months. But the simple fact that he has yet to do so tells us very little about what is going to happen from this point forward.


We all do. I don't believe you're getting any argument on this point.

Part of the reason nothing has happened yet is because of the "good" part of your statement. The Reds have a very specific set of needs and, given the budget, there are limited solutions. Which FAs have been signed or players traded where you feel Walt should have topped the offer?

We all want improvement. Everybody wants a better team. But it's a 6 month off-season. Patience -- no reason to beat that wish to death.

David Dejesus? Josh Willingham? JJ Hardy? Cameron Maybin?

edabbs44
12-21-2010, 05:15 AM
David Dejesus? Josh Willingham? JJ Hardy? Cameron Maybin?

Jj hardy is going to make 7 or 8 million this year.

mth123
12-21-2010, 06:21 AM
Jj hardy is going to make 7 or 8 million this year.

And the Reds saved that with Arroyo's renegotiation. Pass on Cairo and it should make it possible.

That said, I agree that dollars are the reason moves aren't being made. It has nothing to do with a grand plan or that the Reds have better alternatives in house. The team can't afford it and the window on this group will be closed by the end of 2012 IMO. The next wave that many seem to want to hoard are a clear drop-off from the Votto/Bruce/Cueto core. Deal off a few of these futures to help win now because they won't be in this position for all that long IMO.

The next set of big moves will likely involve dealing off some of the current group for cheaper options. There is no one on the horizon for 2B, 3B or any of the OF spots who isn't a drop off and any expectations that Alonso can replace Votto are unrealistic. Alonso may be OK, but Votto is an MVP and there will be a distinct drop-off when he goes.

kpresidente
12-21-2010, 08:43 AM
Deal off a few of these futures to help win now because they won't be in this position for all that long IMO.

If you're going to go that route, then don't do it half-way. That's the mistake teams make. Trade Chapman now. He won't be much help before your window closes as a AAA starter/relief pitcher, he has a huge trade value, and he makes enough money to make a difference in adding quality LF or SS.

Benihana
12-21-2010, 09:51 AM
If you're going to go that route, then don't do it half-way. That's the mistake teams make. Trade Chapman now. He won't be much help before your window closes as a AAA starter/relief pitcher, he has a huge trade value, and he makes enough money to make a difference in adding quality LF or SS.

I get your general point, but disagree on Chapman specifically. I think he does add significant value to the big league club over the next 2-3 years. However, in the spirit of your point, I would be actively looking to trade pieces like Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger, Joseph, LaMarre, etc. for big league upgrades.

bucksfan2
12-21-2010, 10:05 AM
The problem, Rick, is that the Reds haven't given much reason for people to think they're trying to do much (at least as it pertains to this offseason).

I realize there's some posturing going on, but everytime Jocketty is asked about a player or about talking to other clubs, he says that they haven't had any conversations, like the club they have, don't have room for payroll or some other variation. It's possible he's hiding his intentions, but right now, everything he's saying makes it sound like they're really not actively pursuing a whole lot.

So people are justified for thinking what they are not just because of the fact the Reds haven't done anything, but because they're telling us repeatedly they're not doing much. It is easy to rub folks the wrong way when you say you're not having any conversations at a meeting designed primarily for that. It's easy to rub them the wrong way when you say you've had zero conversations when it comes to a few of the top available players.

As I said: Jocketty has always played it close to the vest, and perhaps he's doing that now (though he was pretty forthcoming when they were chasing Cliff Lee last summer). But they're going out of their way to make it sound like they aren't trying too hard. And that's a little concerning.

This is my favorite thread of the off season. Most of the expectations are unrealistic especially when you consider the way Jocketty has historically operated.

First and foremost Jocketty and the Reds owe nothing to the fan base except putting the most competitive team on the field come opening day 2011. They don't owe the fan base knowledge of every trade and discussion that goes on. The don't owe the fan base a trade or signing to generate interest. They have done that in the past and the signings and trades have worked out disastrous on many occasions.

I find it ironic that most of the loud and all telling GM's either end up on the scrap heap or don't end up getting their guy. This off season you had Nolan Ryan talking about how he expected Cliff Lee to go to the Rangers, he went to the Phillies who no one knew were in the discussion. The Angles GM thought Crawford was a shoe in to sign with the Angles, but Crawford went to the Red Sox. The Yankees were very vocal about going after a top tier FA only to come up whiffing. And in regards to Grienke, there wasn't a whole lot of Brewer chatter until the deal was close.

Heck even last season Jocketty was accused of being asleep at the wheel and fans were upset when he went on a vacation during the off season. In fact the Reds made one of the biggest splashes in the off season while he was on vacation when they signed Chapman.

If you want a GM who talks about everything check out Steve Phillips on Mad Dog Radio. If you want a GM who is actively throwing around money then start following the Yankees. If you want a GM who has a proven track record of building small market clubs then you may want to have a little more patience with Walt.

Benihana
12-21-2010, 10:34 AM
This is my favorite thread of the off season. Most of the expectations are unrealistic especially when you consider the way Jocketty has historically operated.

First and foremost Jocketty and the Reds owe nothing to the fan base except putting the most competitive team on the field come opening day 2011. They don't owe the fan base knowledge of every trade and discussion that goes on. The don't owe the fan base a trade or signing to generate interest. They have done that in the past and the signings and trades have worked out disastrous on many occasions.

They have also done nothing for many offseasons and at many trade deadlines and that has also worked out disastrously on many occasions. No one is saying they need to provide a day-to-day journal on any and all activities. But when Walt says "We have had zero discussions with any teams or players" at the winter meetings, and has repeatedly said he doesn't forsee any significant moves, one can pretty much draw their own conclusions about what the intentions are. Obviously I am very happy the Reds won the division last season. But it would be one thing if we were talking about a team that won over 100 games and are expecting no regressions. The Reds stole a division crown with 91 wins (which wouldn't have been enough to make the playoffs in the American League) because their divisional foes completely tanked, and then got completely wiped out in one of the more lopsided playoff serieses in recent memory. If you are satisfied with good enough, go be a Bengals fan. If you want to dare to be great, you have a right to constantly question the status quo and look for ways to continuously improve the team.


I find it ironic that most of the loud and all telling GM's either end up on the scrap heap or don't end up getting their guy. This off season you had Nolan Ryan talking about how he expected Cliff Lee to go to the Rangers, he went to the Phillies who no one knew were in the discussion. The Angles GM thought Crawford was a shoe in to sign with the Angles, but Crawford went to the Red Sox. The Yankees were very vocal about going after a top tier FA only to come up whiffing. And in regards to Grienke, there wasn't a whole lot of Brewer chatter until the deal was close.

Hmm, the Rangers (who were in Bankruptcy) went to the World Series last year after actually making the bold move to acquire Cliff Lee, despite already having a first place team. The Angels and Yankees have been two of the most successful franchises in the game for the last decade at least. Yeah, it's great we're not more like them. :rolleyes:


Heck even last season Jocketty was accused of being asleep at the wheel and fans were upset when he went on a vacation during the off season. In fact the Reds made one of the biggest splashes in the off season while he was on vacation when they signed Chapman.

If you want a GM who talks about everything check out Steve Phillips on Mad Dog Radio. If you want a GM who is actively throwing around money then start following the Yankees. If you want a GM who has a proven track record of building small market clubs then you may want to have a little more patience with Walt.

So I guess we should just shut Redszone down for the winter? No use in hypothesizing or speculating on what moves should and/or shouldn't be done, because we should all just shut up, sit back and see what happens. Isn't the point of the Hot Stove League to speculate and debate roster-shaping transactions?

bucksfan2
12-21-2010, 11:05 AM
They have also done nothing for many offseasons and at many trade deadlines and that has also worked out disastrously on many occasions. No one is saying they need to provide a day-to-day journal on any and all activities. But when Walt says "We have had zero discussions with any teams or players" at the winter meetings, and has repeatedly said he doesn't forsee any significant moves, one can pretty much draw their own conclusions about what the intentions are. Obviously I am very happy the Reds won the division last season. But it would be one thing if we were talking about a team that won over 100 games and are expecting no regressions. The Reds stole a division crown with 91 wins (which wouldn't have been enough to make the playoffs in the American League) because their divisional foes completely tanked, and then got completely wiped out in one of the more lopsided playoff serieses in recent memory. If you are satisfied with good enough, go be a Bengals fan. If you want to dare to be great, you have a right to constantly question the status quo and look for ways to continuously improve the team.

Just because they haven't told you what they are doing doesn't mean they are sitting on their hands doing nothing. This isn't fantasy baseball or stratamatic baseball. Trades have a real impact and aren't as easily completed as assumed here on RZ.

If the Reds luck into a division win every year I will be quite happy. This isn't the AL and I don't care if they won the division with only 91 wins. Heck I would be perfectly happy if they won the WS with 86 wins like the Cards did a few seasons ago.

Who says the Reds aren't daring to be great? Who says that the Reds aren't doing anything? Just because they don't throw out trades at the rate you do doesn't mean they aren't doing anything.


Hmm, the Rangers (who were in Bankruptcy) went to the World Series last year after actually making the bold move to acquire Cliff Lee, despite already having a first place team. The Angels and Yankees have been two of the most successful franchises in the game for the last decade at least. Yeah, it's great we're not more like them. :rolleyes:

I was talking specifically about this off season. If twisting my words makes your argument better then by all means go ahead and do so. The loudest voices this off season have been the Yankees, Rangers, and Angles. And all three have whiffed. Not really caring about what happened last season.


So I guess we should just shut Redszone down for the winter? No use in hypothesizing or speculating on what moves should and/or shouldn't be done, because we should all just shut up, sit back and see what happens. Isn't the point of the Hot Stove League to speculate and debate roster-shaping transactions?

I like speculating, but I like speculating in reality.

REDREAD
12-21-2010, 11:23 AM
I agree that Chapman was a bold move. But the Reds recent history is not to go after highly rated free agents or to make big trades. They seldom make bold moves. Didn't say never.


Walt has made a few bold moves.

Rolen was a bold move
Chapman was a bold move
Extending Bruce was a bold move.

You could even stretch it a bit and say that the Hernandez trade and Rhodes sigining showed vision.. These moves were not met with much enthusiasm, but were clearly part of Walt's plan to make the team better by patching holes and adding depth.. It's been a long time since we had a GM with that kind of vision.

In short, just about every move that Walt has made has turned to gold (other than Willy T).

I think you will see some moves in Jan/Feb.. I know that it's not exciting to watch Walt wait for the price of Gomes/Nix/Caberra type guys fall down to our budget, but be patient.

I still think Walt is going to add an OF before spring training. Hopefully, it's a starting caliber one.

Benihana
12-21-2010, 11:24 AM
Just because they haven't told YOU what they are doing doesn't mean they are sitting on their hands doing nothing. This isn't fantasy baseball or stratamatic baseball. Trades have a real impact and aren't as easily completed as assumed here on RZ.

Who says the Reds aren't daring to be great? Who says that the Reds aren't doing anything? Just because they don't throw out trades at the rate you do doesn't mean they aren't doing anything.

They don't have to tell ME anything. I will be quite happy with actions, not words. However, when their words all point one way, it is not terribly unreasonable to assume that nothing major will occur. (N.B. As always, I will be elated to eat my words here)

They didn't make a bold move to acquire Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt at the deadline. The former wasn't a money issue at all, either. More than anything else, this is probably the reason why they were so quickly eliminated from the playoffs. Similarly, they didn't make a bold move for Greinke. Ditto for Justin Upton. Maybe they were right in not doing so- maybe they would have had to overpay too much. I'm not crying over (the lack of) any one specific move. It's the full body of misses, the lack of daring to be great, that has me concerned.

Even if they attempt to go for it and fall short, I won't fault them. I don't think too many Milwaukee fans are rueing the day they traded LaPorta for Sabathia. Ditto for the Rangers with Smoak and Cliff Lee. Better to have tried and failed than to not try at all (or in the Reds case, keep dipping their toes in the water)


If the Reds luck into a division win every year I will be quite happy. This isn't the AL and I don't care if they won the division with only 91 wins. Heck I would be perfectly happy if they won the WS with 86 wins like the Cards did a few seasons ago.

Great, so will I. But being fooled by getting lucky one year and expecting it to happen again the next year without any significant improvements is exactly that- being fooled.


I was talking specifically about this off season. If twisting my words makes your argument better then by all means go ahead and do so. The loudest voices this off season have been the Yankees, Rangers, and Angles. And all three have whiffed. Not really caring about what happened last season.

Clearly there is a huge correlation there. Great job, amazing supposition!

By the way, there was some pretty loud rumblings surrounding the Red Sox and Adrian Gonzalez. Good thing that one never came to pass.


I like speculating, but I like speculating in reality.

I don't even know what that means. Is it unrealistic to hope for the Reds to get a Greinke, an Upton, a rental of Cliff Lee, etc. instead of the status quo? Is it unrealistic to hope for a David DeJesus, Brett Gardner, Jose Reyes, Cameron Maybin, instead of a Jonny Gomes? Is it unrealistic to hope for just one of these things to happen? Maybe it is, and that's the problem.

westofyou
12-21-2010, 11:29 AM
Just 91 wins?

Just the 3rd time it's been achieved in the past 33 years, only 15% of the best Reds seasons in the past 111 years have had 91 wins.

91 wins around here should be applauded, not derided.

Hoosier Red
12-21-2010, 11:29 AM
They have also done nothing for many offseasons and at many trade deadlines and that has also worked out disastrously on many occasions. No one is saying they need to provide a day-to-day journal on any and all activities. But when Walt says "We have had zero discussions with any teams or players" at the winter meetings, and has repeatedly said he doesn't forsee any significant moves, one can pretty much draw their own conclusions about what the intentions are.

And then signed Jay Bruce the next day. My guess is he had a conversation or two.



Obviously I am very happy the Reds won the division last season. But it would be one thing if we were talking about a team that won over 100 games and are expecting no regressions. The Reds stole a division crown with 91 wins (which wouldn't have been enough to make the playoffs in the American League) because their divisional foes completely tanked, and then got completely wiped out in one of the more lopsided playoff serieses in recent memory.
The Reds won 91 games which was enough to make the playoffs, they don't play in the American League so I'm not overly concerned with what would have been enough to get to the playoffs in the American League.


If you are satisfied with good enough, go be a Bengals fan. If you want to dare to be great, you have a right to constantly question the status quo and look for ways to continuously improve the team.

I am a Bengals fan already, God help me, the Bengals went 10-6, made a number of big moves by cutting their kicker(now kicking for New England,) signing a wide receiver who had a very productive season, drafting four players who are now starters, and they've lost 11 games. Sports are funny that way sometimes.


So I guess we should just shut Redszone down for the winter? No use in hypothesizing or speculating on what moves should and/or shouldn't be done, because we should all just shut up, sit back and see what happens. Isn't the point of the Hot Stove League to speculate and debate roster-shaping transactions?

I don't think anyone recommends that, but rather, simply asserting that the GM isn't doing his job because other teams have made trades/signings is silly.
There will be players you wished the Reds would sign/trade for, but sometimes it doesn't work out. That doesn't make the GM a fool, or prove he didn't try hard, or that he failed. THe only thing that will prove the GM failed will be if the Brewers and/or Cardinals catch the Reds. I still like our odds.

Benihana
12-21-2010, 11:30 AM
Walt has made a few bold moves.

Rolen was a bold move
Chapman was a bold move
Extending Bruce was a bold move.

You could even stretch it a bit and say that the Hernandez trade and Rhodes sigining showed vision.. These moves were not met with much enthusiasm, but were clearly part of Walt's plan to make the team better by patching holes and adding depth.. It's been a long time since we had a GM with that kind of vision.

In short, just about every move that Walt has made has turned to gold (other than Willy T).

I think you will see some moves in Jan/Feb.. I know that it's not exciting to watch Walt wait for the price of Gomes/Nix/Caberra type guys fall down to our budget, but be patient.

I still think Walt is going to add an OF before spring training. Hopefully, it's a starting caliber one.

Hope you're right.

I will take issue with calling a Hernandez or Rhodes signing a "bold move." But I get your point, and as always, hope I'm wrong here.

REDREAD
12-21-2010, 11:42 AM
Hope you're right.

I will take issue with calling a Hernandez or Rhodes signing a "bold move." But I get your point, and as always, hope I'm wrong here.

Yea, that's kind of what I meant.. It wasn't bold like Rolen, as the downside risk was pretty low.

Still, it showed vision. Walt did some work by dumping Freel's useless contract and getting value. IIRC, Bako was the incumbant catcher, so Walt beat the bushes, trying to find an upgrade at C.

I have no doubt that Walt is working the phones, trying to find an upgrade at LF and SS.. I'll even go out on a limb and say that he will get a reasonable upgrade at least one of those positions (over Janish or Gomes).

Benihana
12-21-2010, 11:42 AM
Just 91 wins?

Just the 3rd time it's been achieved in the past 33 years, only 15% of the best Reds seasons in the past 111 years have had 91 wins.

91 wins around here should be applauded, not derided.

It IS applauded, not derided, by me.

But thinking that winning 91 games means your team is so good that it doesn't need to be improved is foolhardy IMO. I don't think there is a team in the league foolish enough to think that they don't have to do anything to improve, and hopefully that includes the Reds.

The Phillies won 97 games last year. Did they have to improve?

westofyou
12-21-2010, 11:49 AM
But thinking that winning 91 games means your team is so good that it doesn't need to be improved is foolhardy IMO.

Nobody here thinks that the team doesn't need to be liquid, that's a given.

It's the timetable and chest pounding factor of how it's done that irks some from what I see.

My take is that the Reds available talent is going to be marketed when the FA's and must trades get cleared out. Until they (the Pavano's of the world) set their market price any talent the Reds might peddle have a unclear market price. It could rise once the smoke clears.

If that's what they think then I don't expect them to tell me that nor do I expect it to happen before the NY.

But I certainly don't think they aren't going to do anything for the next 14 weeks before season starts.

RANDY IN INDY
12-21-2010, 12:16 PM
Nobody here thinks that the team doesn't need to be liquid, that's a given.

It's the timetable and chest pounding factor of how it's done that irks some from what I see.

My take is that the Reds available talent is going to be marketed when the FA's and must trades get cleared out. Until they (the Pavano's of the world) set their market price any talent the Reds might peddle have a unclear market price. It could rise once the smoke clears.

If that's what they think then I don't expect them to tell me that nor do I expect it to happen before the NY.

But I certainly don't think they aren't going to do anything for the next 14 weeks before season starts.

Hope you are right. My biggest fear is a Rolen injury, and seeing Cairo in the lineup on a regular basis. Cairo is a nice piece if he isn't playing regularly. Betting heavily on Gomes also scares me a bit.

Caveat Emperor
12-21-2010, 12:48 PM
Hope you are right. My biggest fear is a Rolen injury, and seeing Cairo in the lineup on a regular basis. Cairo is a nice piece if he isn't playing regularly. Betting heavily on Gomes also scares me a bit.

Very few teams in the Reds financial position can afford to carry quality backups for any position on the diamond.

Benihana
12-21-2010, 01:08 PM
Very few teams in the Reds financial position can afford to carry quality backups for any position on the diamond.

I think the point is it would be a lot less of an issue if you had more sound players in LF and/or SS. No one has any control over Rolen's health, but a lineup with Cairo, Gomes, and Janish is almost definitely going nowhere as opposed to a lineup with Cairo, Gomes and Reyes or Cairo, Gardner, and Janish, or Cairo, Ellsbury, and Janish, or...

You get the point.

Benihana
12-21-2010, 01:15 PM
Nobody here thinks that the team doesn't need to be liquid, that's a given.

Au contraire.


I just don't. See where to improve. Standing pat is fine.



Make a move only if it improves the team without mortgaging the future. Otherwise, this is the same team that won the division last year, so the talent is there to win again.


The team is going to improve next year simply by keeping it together. The young guys continuing to improve next season will make the difference. While it would be nice to get that 'leadoff guy', it isn't like the Reds are the only team with a hole somewhere. Every team in our division has holes in it. More than the Reds do for that matter.

Shall I go on?

westofyou
12-21-2010, 01:20 PM
Shall I go on?

Isn't that what you've been doing for the past day?

Benihana
12-21-2010, 01:23 PM
Isn't that what you've been doing for the past day?

Wow, nothing else smart alec to say huh? I think you finally get the point. :clap:

westofyou
12-21-2010, 01:28 PM
Wow, nothing else smart alec to say huh? I think you finally get the point. :clap:

No I don't, you've actually you've rendered me speechless with your acumen.

Bravo.

RedsManRick
12-21-2010, 01:28 PM
Hope you are right. My biggest fear is a Rolen injury, and seeing Cairo in the lineup on a regular basis. Cairo is a nice piece if he isn't playing regularly. Betting heavily on Gomes also scares me a bit.

I echo your concerns about Rolen, but imagine that if he gets hurt, Fransisco, Frazier or Valaika get the nod as his replacement.

RANDY IN INDY
12-21-2010, 01:34 PM
I think the point is it would be a lot less of an issue if you had more sound players in LF and/or SS. No one has any control over Rolen's health, but a lineup with Cairo, Gomes, and Janish is almost definitely going nowhere as opposed to a lineup with Cairo, Gomes and Reyes or Cairo, Gardner, and Janish, or Cairo, Ellsbury, and Janish, or...

You get the point.

Bingo

RANDY IN INDY
12-21-2010, 01:36 PM
I echo your concerns about Rolen, but imagine that if he gets hurt, Fransisco, Frazier or Valaika get the nod as his replacement.

Rick, I would agree with that, but I'm not sure that Dusty would.;)

TRF
12-21-2010, 01:36 PM
Au contraire.

Shall I go on?

1st I was posting From my phone. Second, standing pat now doesn't mean no moves in the future. I am concerned about rolen's second half and his health and age. LF is a problem and nothing is certain about SS. But for today, I a content.

kpresidente
12-21-2010, 02:04 PM
The Phillies won 97 games last year. Did they have to improve?

Yeah, Jocketty passed on Cliff Lee because he thought we were fine. Had nothing to do with payroll.:rolleyes:

Redsfan320
12-21-2010, 02:10 PM
I did like what I saw out of Valaika last year... can he play SS and/or 3B?

320

TheNext44
12-21-2010, 02:13 PM
Not to add more fuel to the bonfire, but is anyone else worried that Votto could see a dropoff? It's hard to repeat 1.000+ OPS seasons. he could lose 100 points off his OPS and still be great, but that would be a lot of production that the Reds would have to get somewhere else.

pedro
12-21-2010, 02:17 PM
The Phillies have a pretty "iffy" OF IMO. They may have added Cliff Lee and I certainly wouldn't suggest that they'd have matched the Nats offer to Werth but I wouldn't be happy going into next season with that OF if I was one of their fans. I'm not sure Palanco isn't due to start regressing either.

pedro
12-21-2010, 02:34 PM
I did like what I saw out of Valaika last year... can he play SS and/or 3B?

320

The big issue I see with him is that he hasn't really proven himself at AAA yet.

edabbs44
12-21-2010, 02:39 PM
Sometimes I feel like Reds fans suffer from battered fans syndrome. Like "Jocketty can't be trusted, look at what our other GMs have done to us. All GMs are bad".

Believe it people, he knows what he is doing. Nobody is perfect but I am more than comfortable with him in charge. I think we all should be.

corkedbat
12-21-2010, 03:44 PM
Sometimes I feel like Reds fans suffer from battered fans syndrome. Like "Jocketty can't be trusted, look at what our other GMs have done to us. All GMs are bad".

Believe it people, he knows what he is doing. Nobody is perfect but I am more than comfortable with him in charge. I think we all should be.

Personally, I've come to trust Walt implicity. I believe the Reds need to add at least one more potent bat (SS/LF - leadoff/power) to keep their momentum going. I think, despite some comments that would seem contrary, Walt believes this two. I also believe that Walt will make such a move in after the holidays if a match can be found (but won't make a move just to make one).

I'm confident that at least one OFer will be added. Whether that OFer is part of a minor or major deal remains to be seen.

I believe that the trading chips are there to add a piece or two that will improve the club without breaking the nucleus. I also have a suspicion that the budget is as inflexible as some think. It's not unlimited by any stretch of the imagaination. With some creativity, I think Jocketty and Castellini can get it done.

And while I've thrown my share of names and deals out there, I believe the final deal may even stun many of us. For one thing, the LFer we end up with may be a younger guy that the Reds braintrust really like, as opposed to a more established star.

MattyHo4Life
12-21-2010, 04:02 PM
Sometimes I feel like Reds fans suffer from battered fans syndrome. Like "Jocketty can't be trusted, look at what our other GMs have done to us. All GMs are bad".

Believe it people, he knows what he is doing. Nobody is perfect but I am more than comfortable with him in charge. I think we all should be.

I think it's a good thing to keep an eye on your GM and critique them. I don't see anything wrong with doing that with Jocketty. Heck, I do that with Mo for the Cardinals. All in all...I like him as a GM, but that doesn't mean that I agree with all of his moves. Just because you are a fan of a team, and you like the GM, doesn't mean you have to be happy with everything they do....or don't do.

Cedric
12-21-2010, 04:14 PM
Sometimes I feel like Reds fans suffer from battered fans syndrome. Like "Jocketty can't be trusted, look at what our other GMs have done to us. All GMs are bad".

Believe it people, he knows what he is doing. Nobody is perfect but I am more than comfortable with him in charge. I think we all should be.

If Gomes is starting in LF without a platoon partner than he hasn't done his job this off season.

That's obviously a big IF considering it's December.

Kc61
12-21-2010, 04:21 PM
Sometimes I feel like Reds fans suffer from battered fans syndrome. Like "Jocketty can't be trusted, look at what our other GMs have done to us. All GMs are bad".

Believe it people, he knows what he is doing. Nobody is perfect but I am more than comfortable with him in charge. I think we all should be.

IMO, everybody is putting too much emphasis on the GM. He is a good GM. He is not the issue.

The question is whether ownership is willing to approve meaningful acquisitions of high level major league players.

Ownership of the Reds has proven to be very solid at investing in the farm system and, very occasionally, springing for a Rolen or Chapman, or extending an Arroyo or Bruce.

But to be a top contender, IMO it has to do more. It has to be willing to make those moves that complete a team. Not necessarily to acquire the elite, highest earning players. But to obtain guys who will provide a meaningful upgrade at positions like LF or SS.

Walt clearly is a very good GM who can make it happen. But the organization itself must, at some point, decide whether it wants to spend a bit more to become a top club.

westofyou
12-21-2010, 04:25 PM
IMO, everybody is putting too much emphasis on the GM. He is a good GM. He is not the issue.

The question is whether ownership is willing to approve meaningful acquisitions of high level major league players.

Ownership of the Reds has proven to be very solid at investing in the farm system and, very occasionally, springing for a Rolen or Chapman, or extending an Arroyo or Bruce.

But to be a top contender, IMO it has to do more. It has to be willing to make those moves that complete a team. Not necessarily to acquire the elite, highest earning players. But to obtain guys who will provide a meaningful upgrade at positions like LF or SS.

Walt clearly is a very good GM who can make it happen. But the organization itself must, at some point, decide whether it wants to spend a bit more to become a top club.

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty is on his family's holiday vacation this week

http://reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101220&content_id=16348454&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin


Jocketty certainly had the talent and depth of prospects in place if he wanted to make a competitive bid for Greinke. However, Cincinnati is at the ceiling of its roughly $80 million budget, and the 27-year-old Greinke is owed $27 million over the next two seasons before he can hit free agency and really cash in. The club has tried to position itself to contend for the long term, and clearing the cupboard of prospects to get someone for only two years would have betrayed that philosophy.

edabbs44
12-21-2010, 04:29 PM
The question is whether ownership is willing to approve meaningful acquisitions of high level major league players.

Ownership of the Reds has proven to be very solid at investing in the farm system and, very occasionally, springing for a Rolen or Chapman, or extending an Arroyo or Bruce.

But to be a top contender, IMO it has to do more. It has to be willing to make those moves that complete a team. Not necessarily to acquire the elite, highest earning players. But to obtain guys who will provide a meaningful upgrade at positions like LF or SS.

Walt clearly is a very good GM who can make it happen. But the organization itself must, at some point, decide whether it wants to spend a bit more to become a top club.

Ownership also has to think about this as a business as well.

The convenient excuse over past years has been "put a winner on the field and attendance will turn around". The Reds averaged 25,439 last year. 24 more people per game than they did in 2007 and 2008. That's right.

It wouldn't shock me if ownership were gun shy about adding significant payroll. Maybe that happens next year, when they will supposedly reap the attendance rewards from last season. Hopefully it will happen.

edabbs44
12-21-2010, 04:31 PM
If Gomes is starting in LF without a platoon partner than he hasn't done his job this off season.

That's obviously a big IF considering it's December.

I'd like to see LF upgraded in some fashion, but it would be difficult to make that statement if they don't get it done. His job entails more than finding a platoon partner for Gomes.

edabbs44
12-21-2010, 04:31 PM
I think it's a good thing to keep an eye on your GM and critique them. I don't see anything wrong with doing that with Jocketty. Heck, I do that with Mo for the Cardinals. All in all...I like him as a GM, but that doesn't mean that I agree with all of his moves. Just because you are a fan of a team, and you like the GM, doesn't mean you have to be happy with everything they do....or don't do.

Right, agree 100%.

pedro
12-21-2010, 04:36 PM
Ownership also has to think about this as a business as well.

The convenient excuse over past years has been "put a winner on the field and attendance will turn around". The Reds averaged 25,439 last year. 24 more people per game than they did in 2007 and 2008. That's right.

It wouldn't shock me if ownership were gun shy about adding significant payroll. Maybe that happens next year, when they will supposedly reap the attendance rewards from last season. Hopefully it will happen.

Cincinnati regularly gets out drawn by Milwaukee. I know that the "city" of Milwaukee has more people but the Cincinnati metro area is significantly larger.

I'm just not convinced that Cincinnati is all that big of a baseball town.

TheNext44
12-21-2010, 04:59 PM
Reds general manager Walt Jocketty is on his family's holiday vacation this week

http://reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101220&content_id=16348454&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

I keep harping on this point, but the Reds budget, based on what is currently known, is not near the $80M limit that has been projected. I have it at around $72-5M, but however you figure it, there clearly is some room.

I think Jocketty just doesn't want to do anything before the budget get settled by the arbitration players and by season ticket sales. Why go out and spend $5M on a player when there might be $10M available, or you find out that there really is only $2M?

I think that if the Reds thought Greinke was the answer, they would have traded for him and figured out how to pay him, just like the Phillies did with Lee. I think they just didn't think he was worth what KC was demanding, and are using the money issue as an excuse.

Eric_the_Red
12-21-2010, 06:49 PM
Au contraire.


Shall I go on?

Since you used my quote as "evidence" somehow that I am fine with the team standing pat, perhaps you need to re-read it. I am fine with them standing pat if the alternative is paying/giving too much to bring another player in. You disagree?

Will M
12-21-2010, 07:31 PM
I keep harping on this point, but the Reds budget, based on what is currently known, is not near the $80M limit that has been projected. I have it at around $72-5M, but however you figure it, there clearly is some room.

I think Jocketty just doesn't want to do anything before the budget get settled by the arbitration players and by season ticket sales. Why go out and spend $5M on a player when there might be $10M available, or you find out that there really is only $2M?

I think that if the Reds thought Greinke was the answer, they would have traded for him and figured out how to pay him, just like the Phillies did with Lee. I think they just didn't think he was worth what KC was demanding, and are using the money issue as an excuse.

I agree with you on the budget. I wonder if the orders from Bob C are that Walt cannot go above a certain amount on the budget. It would explain why he has passed on several guys who would have looked good wearing Red next year. He can't trade for a guy and then have the arbitration cases cause the team to go above his budget limit. There is a problem with this way of operating. Lets say he gets all the other guys signed & says "I have $6M for LF. Lets go get that DeJesus guy. Oh wait. OK then how about Willingham. Oh wait. Well who else is out there?" The cupboard of options for the team may be fairly sparse as several guys he might have obtained have already been moved.

westofyou
12-21-2010, 08:57 PM
I keep harping on this point, but the Reds budget, based on what is currently known, is not near the $80M limit that has been projected. I have it at around $72-5M, but however you figure it, there clearly is some room.

Actually it's also based on assumed Arb rates, and assumed young guy salaries.

Where's the disconnect, all the press report one number... anyone know?

I can't take stock in what will be assumed myself, if the press who have more access to the team say 80 million, where are THEY getting that number.

Mario-Rijo
12-22-2010, 01:24 PM
Not to add more fuel to the bonfire, but is anyone else worried that Votto could see a dropoff? It's hard to repeat 1.000+ OPS seasons. he could lose 100 points off his OPS and still be great, but that would be a lot of production that the Reds would have to get somewhere else.

This is really the crux of the issue IMO. We won 91 games with Votto contributing alot of big hits, that bat is gonna be taken away alot more next season and we have no answers for it. They are hoping Jay and Drew and more improve, they better be right.

Scrap Irony
12-22-2010, 01:58 PM
If you look to 2011 ZiPS projections, the Reds grade out as 106-ish OPS+ team, per offensive position.

That's worse than last year by a slight margin.

(This takes into account playing time projections as well, with Heisey playing around 50% of the time between Gomes, Stubbs, and Bruce; Cairo playing some middle infield and some corner IF; a 50/50 split in catching between Hanigan and Hernandez; Francisco with 200 ABs, mostly in place of Rolen, but also a week for Votto.)

If the pitching does what ZiPS says it will (and league average is where the computer says it will be), the Reds are a solid team capable of winning anywhere between 81 and 95 games.

Offensively, the entire team is almost league average. Stubbs' 92 OPS+ is because of his minor league lack of power and K rate. Hanigan and Hernandez look to be the big losers in the career year sweepstakes. But the projection most hurting the Reds is Paul Janish's 78 OPS+. Gomes' projection is league average, with lots of playing time. Both Bruce and Stubbs look low. ZiPS does not take natural improvement into account and minor league numbers and K rates have disproportionately high effects on projections.

On the mound, Chapman is apparently another person entirely, as ZiPS really, really doesn't like him. They do like Bill Bray, however, so take that for what it's worth. Both the starting staff and pen look like good bets to improve slightly.

Hoosier Red
12-22-2010, 02:35 PM
Scrap, I'm going to take one thing you said and stretch it out if you don't mind. This could be its own topic, but I'm curious if you could give a more laymans answer to my question...

ZiPS does not take natural improvement into account and minor league numbers and K rates have disproportionately high effects on projections.


To me this doesn't sound correct. It may not take Drew Stubbs or Paul Janish's personal improvement into consideration, but I'd imagine it does take the projected improvement of any player because most players improve from age 25 to age 26.

So basically given his minor league numbers, and the sharp increase in numbers from 2 years ago to today, it projects the 26 year old outfielder with 1 + year of experience to produce a certain number.

But if you say it doesn't take natural improvement into account, does that mean it gives no credit for the most recent numbers being improved? Or does it not give a projected increase above where the recent numbers have improved to?

I apologize if I'm asking an impossible to answer question, but the different projection methods really fascinate me.

Scrap Irony
12-22-2010, 03:21 PM
It doesn't really focus on improvement of individual players across a year.

For example, Stubbs' power numbers (especially his HR totals) are noticeably lower largely because he didn't show power in the minor leagues. (He has a 1% chance, according to ZiPS, of hitting 30+ HR, despite hitting his 22 dingers in the majors, but gives Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco double the chance to do just that at the major league level this season.) His major league power numbers are taken, by ZiPS, as a bit of an odd occurence not likely to be repeated. (Stubbs' high K rate also really dings his offensive value, as the computer sees guys who struggle to make contact as not long for the major leagues.)

Janish's 2010 bump offensively was taken into account, but ZiPS looks at it, again, as unlikely next season. The computer model doesn't see the improved swing and strength-- it sees a weak-hitting SS that's likely to struggle if given a full-time job.

Hoosier Red
12-22-2010, 04:54 PM
I think there's value in that balance to what is perhaps a fans overly optimistic viewpoint.

Sure Stubbs power has shown up at the major league level, for one season, which completely blows away his minor league numbers.
Sure Janish has improved his hand strenghth, and has better numbers, for one season, which was much better than what he had done in the past.

I'm not saying the improvements aren't real and aren't likely to stick, but I'm guessing Stubbs isn't the first player in the history of baseball to have one season where his power all of a sudden clicked.
I'm guessing Janish isn't the first player in the history to have a relatively weak stick throughout the minor leagues but have one season with higher than average SLG % and a better batting average.

We all like to think it's something they did and that they'll continue to do it. I hope it is, but there's a chance, perhaps as good of a chance as not that this was in fact a one year abberation, and Drew Stubbs and Paul Janish will be out of the league in two years.

The projection system in question may not put enough weight on last year which was an outlier to all previous seasons, but perhaps we're putting too much weight on it.

Man I just depressed myself. I had talked myself into Janish being a legit shortstop option. And Stubbs being a guy who could bat anywhere from 1-6 and get on base(even with a low BA) and score runs in bunches.

I still think that could happen, but I'm less certain that it will happen than when I started thinking about it.

The lesson here as always. Don't think.

kaldaniels
12-22-2010, 05:11 PM
I think there's value in that balance to what is perhaps a fans overly optimistic viewpoint.

Sure Stubbs power has shown up at the major league level, for one season, which completely blows away his minor league numbers.
Sure Janish has improved his hand strenghth, and has better numbers, for one season, which was much better than what he had done in the past.

I'm not saying the improvements aren't real and aren't likely to stick, but I'm guessing Stubbs isn't the first player in the history of baseball to have one season where his power all of a sudden clicked.
I'm guessing Janish isn't the first player in the history to have a relatively weak stick throughout the minor leagues but have one season with higher than average SLG % and a better batting average.

We all like to think it's something they did and that they'll continue to do it. I hope it is, but there's a chance, perhaps as good of a chance as not that this was in fact a one year abberation, and Drew Stubbs and Paul Janish will be out of the league in two years.

The projection system in question may not put enough weight on last year which was an outlier to all previous seasons, but perhaps we're putting too much weight on it.

Man I just depressed myself. I had talked myself into Janish being a legit shortstop option. And Stubbs being a guy who could bat anywhere from 1-6 and get on base(even with a low BA) and score runs in bunches.

I still think that could happen, but I'm less certain that it will happen than when I started thinking about it.

The lesson here as always. Don't think.

I have to ask, since you are the one that brought it up, what is the chance that Stubbs will be out of the league in 2 years.

westofyou
12-22-2010, 05:15 PM
I have to ask, since you are the one that brought it up, what is the chance that Stubbs will be out of the league in 2 years.
1 in 10 if he gets hit by a bus.

Corey Patterson is still around.

Tools get an invite to many parties.

kaldaniels
12-22-2010, 05:16 PM
1 in 10 if he gets hit by a bus.

Corey Patterson is still around.

Tools get an invite to many parties.

Exactly.

corkedbat
12-22-2010, 09:37 PM
Juat a slight quibble but Drew's MLB MLB emergence is not just a one-year occurance. IIRC, he had 8 dingers in 09 - numbers that more than a couple did not believe he could maintain (but did).

corkedbat
12-23-2010, 01:07 AM
OK, I was bored.

SS Jose Reyes
2B Dustin Ackley
1B Joey Votto
LF Justin Upton
RF Jay Bruce
3B Scott Rolen
CF Drew Stubbs
CA Ryan Hanigan

UT Todd Frazier *
IF Miguel Cairo
IF Paul Janish
OF Jonny Gomes
OF Angel Pagan
CA Ramon Hernandez

Bronson Arroyo
Jonny Cueto
Travis Wood
Edinson Volquez
Homer Bailey
Sam LeCure *
Logan Ondrusek
Bill Bray
Jose Arredondo
Arthur Rhodes
Nick Masset
Aroldis Chapman

* The 25th spot comes down to a 7th reliever (Lecure) or a 6th bat on the bench (Frazier)

Deals:
1. Brandon Phillips, Jared Burton & Matt Maloney for Jose Reyes & Angel Pagan
2. Juan Francisco, Dave Sappelt & Carlos Fisher for Dustin Ackley & prospect
3. Mike Leake, Yonder Alonso, Chris Heisey, Jordan Smith & the prospect(s) in the Cordero deal for Justin Upton
4. Coco Cordero & cash for the best prospect(s) they can get

Griffey012
12-23-2010, 02:30 AM
OK, I was bored.

SS Jose Reyes
2B Dustin Ackley
1B Joey Votto
LF Justin Upton
RF Jay Bruce
3B Scott Rolen
CF Drew Stubbs
CA Ryan Hanigan

UT Todd Frazier *
IF Miguel Cairo
IF Paul Janish
OF Jonny Gomes
OF Angel Pagan
CA Ramon Hernandez

Bronson Arroyo
Jonny Cueto
Travis Wood
Edinson Volquez
Homer Bailey
Sam LeCure *
Logan Ondrusek
Bill Bray
Jose Arredondo
Arthur Rhodes
Nick Masset
Aroldis Chapman

* The 25th spot comes down to a 7th reliever (Lecure) or a 6th bat on the bench (Frazier)

Deals:
1. Brandon Phillips, Jared Burton & Matt Maloney for Jose Reyes & Angel Pagan
2. Juan Francisco, Dave Sappelt & Carlos Fisher for Dustin Ackley & prospect
3. Mike Leake, Yonder Alonso, Chris Heisey, Jordan Smith & the prospect(s) in the Cordero deal for Justin Upton
4. Coco Cordero & cash for the best prospect(s) they can get

Which video game did you pull these off in?

Mario-Rijo
12-23-2010, 10:17 AM
Just something I came upon that I think needs to be added to this discussion. It's a piece on the Success Cycle, it's old but it still rings true.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1357


Recognizing a team's place in the cycle is perhaps the key element in any team's game plan, because it drives decision-making. If a GM misreads his team's place in the cycle, he may get overaggressive and commit too much cash in an effort to win before a core is in place, and quickly fall back to the rebuilding stage. On the other hand, being too passive with a team ready to win can cost the franchise a shot at a pennant.

Roy Tucker
12-23-2010, 12:39 PM
Just something I came upon that I think needs to be added to this discussion. It's a piece on the Success Cycle, it's old but it still rings true.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1357



Recognizing a team's place in the cycle is perhaps the key element in any team's game plan, because it drives decision-making. If a GM misreads his team's place in the cycle, he may get overaggressive and commit too much cash in an effort to win before a core is in place, and quickly fall back to the rebuilding stage. On the other hand, being too passive with a team ready to win can cost the franchise a shot at a pennant.



Yep. That's why MLB GM's make the big bucks.

Its a fine line to walk with pot-shots getting taken from both ends of the spectrum.

Benihana
12-23-2010, 12:49 PM
Agreed M-R.

membengal
12-27-2010, 08:19 AM
Tend to agree with KC et al on this thread in terms of disappointment so far this off-season.

My hope heading into the off-season was that Walt would be able to deal from this teams strength (depth at SP, prospects MLB ready Frazier-Francisco-Alonso-Maloney and good lower organizational talent) to address a need for this team long-term. The needs I had an eye on (and was not alone) was a hammer at the top of the rotation and dealing with LF (or maybe even SS). And I guess, given what Walt has gotten done at various times in his past (McGwire, Edmonds, and like deals) where he dealt from strength to acquire good and perhaps undervalued veteran value I was hoping this was in his GM wheelhouse.

The kinds of players that certainly would have addressed needs were a Grienke (that one still stings me) and in LF, with some creativity, a Justin Upton or a Matt Kemp (fully acknowedge Kemp is no sure thing, but he IS an outsized potential talent who I think would be a great fit with Dusty as his manager) for example. Heck, not sure of his health, but Grady Sizemore would make an interesting bloom-is-off-rose-but-still-may-be-really-good potential acquisition that would really fit a need on this team.

I was looking for an external move that would really cement this team for 2011 and heading into the years after (but loved the Bruce signing, that was a great internal move). And that external move hasn't happened. Not even close.

So, there is disappointment at this juncture. That could change on a dime for me if something big gets done, but if it doesn't, I will not be a satisfied Reds fan heading into spring training (not that that matters to any of you, obviously). I hope the copious talent we have on this team meets the challenge and can continue to step forward like they did last year, Bruce clearly has room to explode and well could, and Stubbs could get better I suppose (but man, he was surprisingly good last year and a step back from him is just as possible...) and Rolen might be as healthy and Votto might be as good and the pitching might all step forward again and Volquez might come back to pre-TJ form etc. etc. etc. but that is a LOT of uncertainty.

I was hoping that bringing in a hammer at the top of the rotation or a bolt of lightening in terms of talent in LF would help hedge the team against some of those questions not being answered like we want them to.

Small steps like pursuing a Podsednik certainly are not what I had in mind.

Roughly seven weeks until pitchers and catcher report, and I hope that Walt still has time to do something a little larger to help this team, otherwise I am certainly concerned it is going to be a year where a lot has to go right to get the team back to the playoffs. Not that it can't go right, of course, just hoping that they would have been able to increase their margin for error in the pursuit of the playoffs. So far, they have not done so. And that is, at this point in time, disappointing.

ETA: Btw, the above thoughts are not a criticism of Jocketty per se. I don't know his budget constraints other than what Fay is apparently tasked by the gods to constantly tell us are tight. So, if it's that tight, it's that tight. But then I do have some frustration with Castellini. His team is REALLY close to being able to contend for a World Series for the next several years, but I think an additional move or two and some additional expenditure of funds may be necessary to make good on this window of talent. In the end, it may be on him if this team doesn't make a move that it could have made to really help. Hard to ever know for sure.

But it is a wasted opportunity if nothing gets done, from where I sit.

mth123
12-27-2010, 09:51 AM
Tend to agree with KC et al on this thread in terms of disappointment so far this off-season.

My hope heading into the off-season was that Walt would be able to deal from this teams strength (depth at SP, prospects MLB ready Frazier-Francisco-Alonso-Maloney and good lower organizational talent) to address a need for this team long-term. The needs I had an eye on (and was not alone) was a hammer at the top of the rotation and dealing with LF (or maybe even SS). And I guess, given what Walt has gotten done at various times in his past (McGwire, Edmonds, and like deals) where he dealt from strength to acquire good and perhaps undervalued veteran value I was hoping this was in his GM wheelhouse.

The kinds of players that certainly would have addressed needs were a Grienke (that one still stings me) and in LF, with some creativity, a Justin Upton or a Matt Kemp (fully acknowedge Kemp is no sure thing, but he IS an outsized potential talent who I think would be a great fit with Dusty as his manager) for example. Heck, not sure of his health, but Grady Sizemore would make an interesting bloom-is-off-rose-but-still-may-be-really-good potential acquisition that would really fit a need on this team.

I was looking for an external move that would really cement this team for 2011 and heading into the years after (but loved the Bruce signing, that was a great internal move). And that external move hasn't happened. Not even close.

So, there is disappointment at this juncture. That could change on a dime for me if something big gets done, but if it doesn't, I will not be a satisfied Reds fan heading into spring training (not that that matters to any of you, obviously). I hope the copious talent we have on this team meets the challenge and can continue to step forward like they did last year, Bruce clearly has room to explode and well could, and Stubbs could get better I suppose (but man, he was surprisingly good last year and a step back from him is just as possible...) and Rolen might be as healthy and Votto might be as good and the pitching might all step forward again and Volquez might come back to pre-TJ form etc. etc. etc. but that is a LOT of uncertainty.

I was hoping that bringing in a hammer at the top of the rotation or a bolt of lightening in terms of talent in LF would help hedge the team against some of those questions not being answered like we want them to.

Small steps like pursuing a Podsednik certainly are not what I had in mind.

Roughly seven weeks until pitchers and catcher report, and I hope that Walt still has time to do something a little larger to help this team, otherwise I am certainly concerned it is going to be a year where a lot has to go right to get the team back to the playoffs. Not that it can't go right, of course, just hoping that they would have been able to increase their margin for error in the pursuit of the playoffs. So far, they have not done so. And that is, at this point in time, disappointing.

ETA: Btw, the above thoughts are not a criticism of Jocketty per se. I don't know his budget constraints other than what Fay is apparently tasked by the gods to constantly tell us are tight. So, if it's that tight, it's that tight. But then I do have some frustration with Castellini. His team is REALLY close to being able to contend for a World Series for the next several years, but I think an additional move or two and some additional expenditure of funds may be necessary to make good on this window of talent. In the end, it may be on him if this team doesn't make a move that it could have made to really help. Hard to ever know for sure.

But it is a wasted opportunity if nothing gets done, from where I sit.

Great post.

Though you clearly say you aren't and anyone with half a brain that reads this can see that you aren't, I'm guessing it will put you in the haters club with KC, Beni and me.;)

Roy Tucker
12-27-2010, 10:26 AM
A fairly astute commentary on the very tight Reds budget by John Fay...

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101226/SPT04/12270318/1071/Reds-lose-Rhodes-to-budget

HokieRed
12-27-2010, 10:27 AM
Great post, membengal. I confess to being disappointed a bit, but only slightly--primarily because I think the fate of 2011's team, and the possibilities for its dramatic improvement, lie with names already in-house: Bailey, Chapman, Volquez, Wood.

membengal
12-27-2010, 10:38 AM
A fairly astute commentary on the very tight Reds budget by John Fay...

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101226/SPT04/12270318/1071/Reds-lose-Rhodes-to-budget

If it's on Cast, it's on Cast. I didn't want them to go after the top free agents, Roy. I agree that was way beyond their means. And I sure as heck didn't want Werth into his late 30s at those prices.

But I do have some frustration if the budget is firm at $80 million. An extra 10 - 12 million really would have set this team up well for 2012-14. If Castellini can't do that, then there are going to be limits on how successful this team can be from season to season. Sustainability of success is no cheap venture. Or at least not an easy one if on a tight budget.

I stay out of the tedious threads on just how profitible the Reds are or are not or just what their budget for the MLB team should be because it is next to impossible to know. And I acknowledge there is not a direct relationship between "fielding a winner" and getting extra butts in seats. But it, at the least, doesn't hurt potential ticket sales to go as hard as reasonably possible to "field a winner" and I do not know that I believe Cast has done that this off-season. Perhaps he has and I am not being fair, but it feels like perhaps not.

At any rate, regardless, I will certainly be ready for spring training with a ton of optimism and the disappointment of the off-season I am sure will have faded (if nothing more really gets done). Course, the disappointment may come crashing back when Grienke fires a two-hit shutout at the Reds on Opening Day...

Unassisted
12-27-2010, 10:39 AM
A fairly astute commentary on the very tight Reds budget by John Fay...

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101226/SPT04/12270318/1071/Reds-lose-Rhodes-to-budget (http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101226/SPT04/12270318/1071/Reds-lose-Rhodes-to-budget)
Fay has been ringing the budget bell for weeks on Twitter. Few here or there seem to want to believe him. Now that so many FAs have been signed by other teams with no interest from the Reds, he seems to have been correct all along.

Also, the comments accompanying that article make my head hurt. Sour grapes about having to pay Griffey for a decade after his retirement and a bucketful of blame heaved in the direction of Ol' Leatherpants. A new round of Lindner-era grumbling that the Reds won't open their books so the public can see if they're truly hamstrung by budget. Ugh!

mth123
12-27-2010, 11:12 AM
Fay has been ringing the budget bell for weeks on Twitter. Few here or there seem to want to believe him. Now that so many FAs have been signed by other teams with no interest from the Reds, he seems to have been correct all along.

Also, the comments accompanying that article make my head hurt. Sour grapes about having to pay Griffey for a decade after his retirement and a bucketful of blame heaved in the direction of Ol' Leatherpants. A new round of Lindner-era grumbling that the Reds won't open their books so the public can see if they're truly hamstrung by budget. Ugh!

I don't think this is a surprise at all. Many were posting last summer that the savings that the Reds would realize by guys coming off the books would be eaten up by raises, arb and buy-outs. My frustration isn't with not getting Greinke, it was clear that the Reds can't afford him (and didn't have the key piece to solve the KC SS problem), but there are guys in the $5 to $7 Million range who could make a difference with just a little different allocation of the budget that is available. Signing replaceable talents like Ramon and Cairo for $4 Million and passing on guys who could fill key roles like JJ Hardy, David Dejesus or Josh Willingham is what frustrates me.

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 11:47 AM
I don't think this is a surprise at all. Many were posting last summer that the savings that the Reds would realize by guys coming off the books would be eaten up by raises, arb and buy-outs. My frustration isn't with not getting Greinke, it was clear that the Reds can't afford him (and didn't have the key piece to solve the KC SS problem), but there are guys in the $5 to $7 Million range who could make a difference with just a little different allocation of the budget that is available. Signing replaceable talents like Ramon and Cairo for $4 Million and passing on guys who could fill key roles like JJ Hardy, David Dejesus or Josh Willingham is what frustrates me.

Is Hardy really an upgrade over anyone? I've seen people pining for this guy and I'm not sure that spending $7-8MM on a guy who's numbers are on a steady decline in his "prime" years are the direction you'd want to go in.

mth123
12-27-2010, 12:39 PM
Is Hardy really an upgrade over anyone? I've seen people pining for this guy and I'm not sure that spending $7-8MM on a guy who's numbers are on a steady decline in his "prime" years are the direction you'd want to go in.

Versus the probable .600 OPS of Janish. Yes.

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 12:43 PM
Versus the probable .600 OPS of Janish. Yes.

I'm not the biggest Janish fan in the room but I think giving Hardy that much money is a bad move, especially if the budget is that tight. Spending whatever flexibility you have on a guy like that can end up killing your team later when Free Agent to be A is available at the deadline.

Griffey012
12-27-2010, 12:49 PM
Is Hardy really an upgrade over anyone? I've seen people pining for this guy and I'm not sure that spending $7-8MM on a guy who's numbers are on a steady decline in his "prime" years are the direction you'd want to go in.

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner. Nice post. I haven't understood the infatuation with Hardy either. Above average in the field, doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power, has an OPS of .659 and .714 the past 2 seasons. Cozart could probably come close to that.

For comparisons sake, Edgar Renteria was average fielding and OPS'd .706 and nobody wants to touch him for 2-3 million. Is the slight bump in fielding really work 4-5 million? I think not.

TRF
12-27-2010, 01:03 PM
Hardy does hit for power. Or rather he did. His power has been slow to return following his injury in 2009. He's 2 years removed from that, he's 28 and he'd be returning to the NL. He could easily be the player he was in 2008, which might make him a top 5 SS in the NL.

I'm not pining for him, but i wouldn't be upset at all if the Reds signed him. I just doubt they will. Jocketty seems high on clubhouse chemistry, and signing Hardy after stating the job is Janish's is a bad message.

TheNext44
12-27-2010, 01:07 PM
A fairly astute commentary on the very tight Reds budget by John Fay...

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101226/SPT04/12270318/1071/Reds-lose-Rhodes-to-budget

Another example of Fay's brilliance :rolleyes:

Not signing Rhodes does not tell us that the Reds are at payroll, or that they won't go above payroll to improve the team. It just means that they are smart enough (clearly smarter than Fay) to understand that a 40 year old set up man with a bad foot who had a bad second half of 2010' is not worth a two year contract. That s it. Nothing more to read into it.

Not offering him arbitration does not mean that the Reds can't afford to pay Rhodes the $5M he would have gotten in arbitration, but that they were smart enough to know that he wasn't worth $5M a year to this team.

All this article tells me is that Fay has no business being the Reds beat writer.

dougdirt
12-27-2010, 01:55 PM
Rhodes had a 3.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in the second half. Hardly a bad second half.

TheNext44
12-27-2010, 02:09 PM
Rhodes had a 3.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in the second half. Hardly a bad second half.

From June 29th to the end of the season he had a 5.09 ERA. That was when his record scoreless steak ended.

Rhodes had a great year, and I wish him well, but refusing to give him two years is a smart move, regardless of a team's payroll situation.

RedsManRick
12-27-2010, 02:19 PM
ERA is a pretty poor indicator of how well a middle reliever pitched, particularly over partial seasons. Small sample issues aside, when you're often getting just 1 or 2 outs, it's relatively easy to avoid allowing runs of your own.

Rhodes' poor 2nd half was no more or less an indicator of his ability than his scoreless streak. The reality is that he's a pretty solid reliever, when healthy. However, he wasn't always healthy and at 41 is unlikely to become more healthy over time. It's not all that complicated. If he was 30 and healthy, he never would have hit FA.

The Reds could afford to pay Rhodes what he cost if he could guarantee health. But he can't. And with both Chapman and Willis around, two guys who are death to lefties and cheap, Rhodes was simply extraneous. Maybe he'll earn his contract with Texas. Maybe he won't. But given the available alternatives, there was more downside risk than upside and the Reds chose to save their limited available resources to spend on something of more unique value.

Caveat Emperor
12-27-2010, 03:23 PM
And with both Chapman and Willis around, two guys who are death to lefties and cheap, Rhodes was simply extraneous.

Rule #1 of Small Market Baseball: Never pay (or, worse, overpay) for what you can effectively replicate in-house or on the cheap.

kaldaniels
12-27-2010, 03:42 PM
ERA is a pretty poor indicator of how well a middle reliever pitched, particularly over partial seasons. Small sample issues aside, when you're often getting just 1 or 2 outs, it's relatively easy to avoid allowing runs of your own.

Rhodes' poor 2nd half was no more or less an indicator of his ability than his scoreless streak. The reality is that he's a pretty solid reliever, when healthy. However, he wasn't always healthy and at 41 is unlikely to become more healthy over time. It's not all that complicated. If he was 30 and healthy, he never would have hit FA.

The Reds could afford to pay Rhodes what he cost if he could guarantee health. But he can't. And with both Chapman and Willis around, two guys who are death to lefties and cheap, Rhodes was simply extraneous. Maybe he'll earn his contract with Texas. Maybe he won't. But given the available alternatives, there was more downside risk than upside and the Reds chose to save their limited available resources to spend on something of more unique value.

At the time of the Willis signing I would have said there is a 10 percent chance he will ever make the 25 man roster. Now, I'd put odds at 50 percent...just a gut feeling.

RedsManRick
12-27-2010, 04:39 PM
At the time of the Willis signing I would have said there is a 10 percent chance he will ever make the 25 man roster. Now, I'd put odds at 50 percent...just a gut feeling.

I was pretty nervous about him given the highly visible falling apart as a starter. But as I've dug in to his stats, he really has been quite effective against LHP and I see no reason to expect otherwise. As a LOOGY, he could be a useful piece. My fear is that Dusty will be inclined to give him the opportunity to be more than that. That said, between Chapman and Bray (who is best utilized as a LOOGY himself), I don't see the need for a 3rd lefty necessarily. Thanks to his cutter, Jared Burton has historically been most effective against lefties as well.

I think the primary reason to bring Rhodes back was for his role as a stabilizing, veteran presence -- something Jocketty and Dusty clearly value. His innings are replaceable

Ron Madden
12-27-2010, 04:51 PM
According to MLBTR the Reds have more holes to fill than any team in the NL Central Division.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Plus Plus
12-27-2010, 05:51 PM
According to MLBTR the Reds have more holes to fill than any team in the NL Central Division.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Thanks for providing the link, Ron, but I think there is more here than meets the eye.

I think that the article that MLBTR provided here is pretty misleading. For example, they list the defending NL Central champions Reds' needs as: "Lefty reliever, left-handed hitting outfielder/leadoff hitter, backup shortstop, Joey Votto extension" but the lowly Astros' needs as solely "Lefty reliever." I think that the article is not referencing holes to fill in order to contend for the NL Central division crown (the Brewers' needs are listed as "none," yet they plan on using a certain terrible shortstop this year...), but rather parts that the teams are still looking to acquire.

In short, I would recommend that no poster use this article as a litmus test for where the Reds' currently stand in the NL Central.

bucksfan2
12-27-2010, 05:58 PM
ERA is a pretty poor indicator of how well a middle reliever pitched, particularly over partial seasons. Small sample issues aside, when you're often getting just 1 or 2 outs, it's relatively easy to avoid allowing runs of your own.

Rhodes' poor 2nd half was no more or less an indicator of his ability than his scoreless streak. The reality is that he's a pretty solid reliever, when healthy. However, he wasn't always healthy and at 41 is unlikely to become more healthy over time. It's not all that complicated. If he was 30 and healthy, he never would have hit FA.

The Reds could afford to pay Rhodes what he cost if he could guarantee health. But he can't. And with both Chapman and Willis around, two guys who are death to lefties and cheap, Rhodes was simply extraneous. Maybe he'll earn his contract with Texas. Maybe he won't. But given the available alternatives, there was more downside risk than upside and the Reds chose to save their limited available resources to spend on something of more unique value.

Until June 29th Rhodes had 4 outings in which he required only .1 outs. There was a scattering of .2 outs but the vast majority of outings Rhodes worked a complete inning. And with Masset's early struggles Rhodes was the go to 8th inning guy early last season.

You can say what you want about luck and other pitchers helping you out, but in order to have a streak of that many outings without allowing a run takes some luck, but a lot of great pitching. And I disagree with the notion that his bad second half and great first half were an indicator of skill. I think if anything you can look to the bad second half as a 40+ year old body's breaking down.

If I had an unlimited supply of cash I would have had no problem bring Rhodes back, throwing him out there every opportunity early in the season while Chapman and Willis got a little more seasoning in AAA. I would be willing to pay again for a great first half if money wasn't an issue. Because money is an issue then it makes sense to let him walk. Unfortunately they were unable to offer him arbitration.

TheNext44
12-27-2010, 06:36 PM
I think an important distiction to made is that Rhodes was not a LOOGY, but a set up man. The Reds are going to need a new 7th/8th guy with Rhodes gone. And with Cordero not exactly firm as the closer, the Reds are going to need one of the young relievers to step up. I'm thinking the best shot is Smith, but that's just a gut feeling.