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View Full Version : Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR



camisadelgolf
12-21-2010, 10:51 AM
Here is my method: I added up the total WAR and salary for each player that Jocketty and Krivsky have acquired or let go as GM of the Reds. If the player was acquired, I counted only his numbers as a Red. If the player was let go, I counted only the numbers since leaving. So here we are . . .

WAYNE KRIVSKY
OBTAINED LET GO
Salary WAR Cost/WAR Salary WAR Cost/WAR
$157.1M 45.6 $3.444M $134.9M 36.7 $3.676M

WALT JOCKETTY
OBTAINED LET GO
Salary WAR Cost/WAR Salary WAR Cost/WAR
$44.8M 19.5 $2.296M $69.6M 16.3 $4.269M

In conclusion, Jocketty's shrewd moves are putting up quite a bit more value than Krivsky's. The going rate for a point of WAR on the free agent market is said to be $5M, which is more than double the efficiency Jocketty is getting out of players like Nick Masset, Scott Rolen, Arthur Rhodes, etc. His worst investment has been Willy Taveras, but you could actually make an argument for Yonder Alonso until he turns things around.

As for Krivsky, he has been a lot more hit-and-miss. You have to love the acquisitions of Arroyo, Phillips, Hamilton/Volquez, Stubbs, etc., but there have been some very costly errors in Mike Stanton, Rheal Cormier, Kirk Saarloos, Josh Fogg, etc.

Overall, Jocketty clearly has the advantage, but it looks like Krivsky had less to work with and managed to come out ahead anyway.

REDREAD
12-21-2010, 11:00 AM
As for Krivsky, he has been a lot more hit-and-miss. You have to love the acquisitions of Arroyo, Phillips, Hamilton/Volquez, Stubbs, etc., but there have been some very costly errors in Mike Stanton, Rheal Cormier, Kirk Saarloos, Josh Fogg, etc.
.

Not trying to start a debate again on Wayne vs Walt, but this is a fair assessement. Wayne had talent, but he seemed to miss the big picture. Wayne also made enough big mistakes (ie Stanton) that one sometimes really wondered what his method was.

IMO, Walt's key strength is building a team. That's different from just collecting talented players.

Homer Bailey
12-21-2010, 11:34 AM
Do you have the breakdown of these numbers? I think that would be very interesting to see.

Thanks for the info. Pretty cool.

RedsManRick
12-21-2010, 01:29 PM
Do you have the breakdown of these numbers? I think that would be very interesting to see.

Thanks for the info. Pretty cool.

Agreed; would love to see the players behind the numbers.

kpresidente
12-21-2010, 01:48 PM
In fairness, Walt doesn't have an owner saying "win now" when the teams not good enough to win now. That approach leads to some bad contracts. Also, Walt came into a team with a good farm system. That means he doesn't have to fill holes with overpriced veterans like WK did.

camisadelgolf
12-21-2010, 01:51 PM
Agreed; would love to see the players behind the numbers.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArL6p8BSK8x2dHp4ODFZMldnN3hxX3Q4YnltNFg5Y 0E&hl=en

Homer Bailey
12-21-2010, 04:03 PM
That's some seriously awesome work golf shirt. Much appreciated.

Brutus
12-21-2010, 05:05 PM
Round of applause, gumshoe. Pretty cool breakdown and about as good of an analysis as one could come up with for such a topic.

Boss-Hog
12-21-2010, 10:08 PM
Interesting stuff and analysis...thanks for posting.

TheNext44
12-21-2010, 10:39 PM
When I read threads like this, it affirms my belief that Redsone is the best baseball site in the country. This stuff belongs on Baseball Perspectus, TangoTiger and Fangraphs, in fact it's more imprressive than some of the articles on those sites.

Thanks Camisadelgolf :)

kaldaniels
12-21-2010, 11:01 PM
Outstanding.

Is there anyway to factor Aaron Harang into this. He is the one big fish that is missing (he doesn't fit the data to be fair) that could possibly shape this discussion further regarding his extension in 2007.

REDREAD
12-24-2010, 12:53 AM
In fairness, Walt doesn't have an owner saying "win now" when the teams not good enough to win now. That approach leads to some bad contracts. Also, Walt came into a team with a good farm system. That means he doesn't have to fill holes with overpriced veterans like WK did.

Sure, they had the same owner, the same pressure.

Walt brought in Rolen, Hernandez, Chapman, Rhodes, etc.
Wayne spent his money/resources on Stanton, Cormier, Maj, Castro etc.

Wayne had some good moves, but more bad than good. That's why the W-L record deteriated every year under Wayne. I am pretty sure that Phillips and Votto are the only starting players left from when Wayne was fired. There's been turnover on the pitching staff too. Sure, Walt inherited some good farm players, but I can guarantee that if Wayne was still running the team, we would not have made the playoffs this year.

kpresidente
12-24-2010, 03:00 AM
Sure, they had the same owner, the same pressure.
No, Krivsky was told to win with a bad team or else he was going to get fired. It was an impossible situation.


Sure, Walt inherited some good farm players, but I can guarantee that if Wayne was still running the team, we would not have made the playoffs this year.

Sure we would have, since all our critical pieces were in place and we won the division by 5 games. It doesn't matter the starters weren't here. They were in Louisville.

Walt did get lucky on Rolen and Hernandez, who both overachieved. Just like WK got lucky on Hamilton and Ross (1st year). Rhodes was a good move, kinda like Affeldt. Maybe Krivsky would have held onto Alex Gonzalez instead of dumping him and going with somebody like Cabrera. And Chapman probably would have been signed under WK as well, since he'd already been either signing or aggressively pursuing the top Latin talent during his term (Rodriguez, Duran, a record-breaking offer to Michel Inoa who went to the A's for less money), meaning this clearly represents an organizational approach that Walt just continued. I give the credit to Chris Buckley.

Things are also a lot easier when you inherit the league MVP at pennies on the dollar instead of an overpaid, washed up Ken Griffey Jr., and when you don't have to dumpster dive to fill out your rotation, because the previous GM left you with a wealth of quality young arms.


Walt brought in Rolen, Hernandez, Chapman, Rhodes, etc.
Wayne spent his money/resources on Stanton, Cormier, Maj, Castro etc.
Stanton was bad, but not as bad as Taveras. The A's paid Cormier and WK had a deal in the works for Castro when he got fired. Would you rather have paid Kearns to be injured than Majewski? The Taveras signing is the one that gives away the fact that Walt struggles just as badly as WK did when he's desperate to fill holes (let's see if we give Podsednik $4M). Only difference is he hasn't had to be as desperate.

SMcGavin
12-24-2010, 11:39 AM
Walt brought in Rolen, Hernandez, Chapman, Rhodes, etc.
Wayne spent his money/resources on Stanton, Cormier, Maj, Castro etc.


Right, those are the guys they brought in. 400+ leadoff appearances for Willy Taveras never happened. And Wayne's legacy is defined by some middle relievers, not the All-Star middle infielder he got for nothing or the 200+ IP horse he got for the rotation.

Both Wayne and Walt are big reasons why the Reds went to the playoffs last season. They also both have done some stupid stuff.

kaldaniels
12-24-2010, 12:09 PM
I take offense to the notion that Walt "got lucky" with Rolen and RH. Give him credit where it is due and hold him accountable when he makes a bad move.

OnBaseMachine
12-24-2010, 12:28 PM
Right, those are the guys they brought in. 400+ leadoff appearances for Willy Taveras never happened. And Wayne's legacy is defined by some middle relievers, not the All-Star middle infielder he got for nothing or the 200+ IP horse he got for the rotation.

Both Wayne and Walt are big reasons why the Reds went to the playoffs last season. They also both have done some stupid stuff.

Yep. Good post.

MartyFan
12-25-2010, 02:08 AM
Not trying to start a debate again on Wayne vs Walt, but this is a fair assessement. Wayne had talent, but he seemed to miss the big picture. Wayne also made enough big mistakes (ie Stanton) that one sometimes really wondered what his method was.

IMO, Walt's key strength is building a team. That's different from just collecting talented players.

I loved Special K and had the Reds stuck with him I could see that he could build a winner...eventually...that said, his biggest mistake signing was that of Francisco Cordero not only because he is over-payed for the closer he is but because a closer was not the highest priority on the team at the time.

Additionally, don't discount the track record that Walt walked into the organization with. There is no way he and Special K were given the same authority in the organization to do things, not after the history Bob had with Walt and also the fact that Walt was brought in as an "adviser" to Bob while Special K was the GM.

kpresidente
12-25-2010, 10:09 AM
I loved Special K and had the Reds stuck with him I could see that he could build a winner...eventually...that said, his biggest mistake signing was that of Francisco Cordero not only because he is over-payed for the closer he is but because a closer was not the highest priority on the team at the time.

Cordero had a big impact. Our bullpen was terrible before, and became a strength afterward. Not that WK didn't overpay, he obviously did. But Cordero was the ONLY closer on the market at the time, so he had all the leverage. It smacks of one of those "desperate to win now" moves. I also have a feeling that Bronson Arroyo is going to look like Jocketty's version of Cordero in a couple of years. Not similar in the sense that we overpaid for him, similar in the sense that the money is going to be a payroll drag going to an unnecessary player, even though the player helps a lot in the first year of the contract.

My feeling on Krivsky was that he did a great job turning around the organization, and didn't deserve to be fired. But since he was replaced by another great GM, it doesn't really matter to us going forward. I just hope that some other team sees that it was him, not Jocketty, who engineered most of the reversal, and gives him another chance, because I think he earned it. I'm not optimistic, though. Baseball is a good ol' boys club, and WK wasn't around long enough to worm his way in.

TheNext44
12-25-2010, 12:09 PM
For me, the biggest difference between Krivsky and Jocketty is that Jocketty was able to convince Cast be patient. And that's really not Krivsky's fault.

WVRedsFan
12-25-2010, 03:01 PM
My feeling on Krivsky was that he did a great job turning around the organization, and didn't deserve to be fired. But since he was replaced by another great GM, it doesn't really matter to us going forward. I just hope that some other team sees that it was him, not Jocketty, who engineered most of the reversal, and gives him another chance, because I think he earned it. I'm not optimistic, though. Baseball is a good ol' boys club, and WK wasn't around long enough to worm his way in.The difference between Krivsky and Jocketty is one of vision. We all lived through Krivsky's experimentation with the bottom of the trash barrell players, his ability to overpay some players (Cordero, Harang), and the fact that only 2006 showed any improvement in record. Jocketty, being the sly veteran he is, seems to know which players will work and which ones will not. That said, Krivsky did do some great things, but his minuses, at least in my mind, are far greater than his accomplishments. The fact that no one even considers him for another GM job speaks volumes.

I'm glad who is in place here and shudder to think where we might be otherwise.

*BaseClogger*
12-25-2010, 04:27 PM
Nice work, cammy. This thread is a perfect example of why you continue to be one of the most valuable posters this site has to offer! :thumbup:

TRF
12-25-2010, 09:12 PM
For me, the biggest difference between Krivsky and Jocketty is that Jocketty was able to convince Cast be patient. And that's really not Krivsky's fault.

not exactly. The biggest difference was Walt had his complete trust and faith. The second biggest difference was Walt inherited a MUCH better team than WK did, and it isn't remotely close. Following that, WK had to change a culture of losing that permeated beyond the Reds organization. He had to do the things to make it appear that the Bowden days were done. The cheapness, trading players for a pile o cash, the punting of draft picks. WK had to continue to rebuild a minor league system decimated by ineptitude while trying to acquire major league talent. Krivsky, over his time in Cincinnati gave up no minor leaguers of consequence. He stunned all of MLB when he traded for Hamilton prior to the Rule V draft (50K to the Cubs without revealing the pick). Krivsky's work in 2006 was in fact a marvel to behold. The hill he had to climb was steep, but he added a 200 IP starter, a GG 2B, a starting C that hit 21 HR's that year and a 1B to bridge the gap to the reigning MVP. Hatteburg's numbers as a Red: .291 .384 .440 .823

He was hamstrung by KGJ's contract, Milton's contract and a legacy of cheapness of the previous 3 regimes.

Funny thing is, he improved the team in his first year by 7 games. Walt had been on board long enough that in 2008 he should have improved the team significantly. It didn't. But he realized what he had, what WK had handed him: a large talent pool. All Jocketty really had to do was plug some holes, which he didn't really do until mid 2009.

This takes nothing away from what happened. The Reds won the Central under Jocketty. But WK a big reason it happened. IMO he'll get a shot to be a GM again.

MartyFan
12-25-2010, 09:52 PM
Cordero had a big impact. Our bullpen was terrible before, and became a strength afterward. Not that WK didn't overpay, he obviously did. But Cordero was the ONLY closer on the market at the time, so he had all the leverage. It smacks of one of those "desperate to win now" moves. I also have a feeling that Bronson Arroyo is going to look like Jocketty's version of Cordero in a couple of years. Not similar in the sense that we overpaid for him, similar in the sense that the money is going to be a payroll drag going to an unnecessary player, even though the player helps a lot in the first year of the contract.

My feeling on Krivsky was that he did a great job turning around the organization, and didn't deserve to be fired. But since he was replaced by another great GM, it doesn't really matter to us going forward. I just hope that some other team sees that it was him, not Jocketty, who engineered most of the reversal, and gives him another chance, because I think he earned it. I'm not optimistic, though. Baseball is a good ol' boys club, and WK wasn't around long enough to worm his way in.

Our BP was bad...so was our starting pitching...so was the offense and on and on...an "elite" closer was not the biggest priority for this team to turn things around.

I also recall that Special K was under a great deal of pressure from Bob to lock up Harang...again, this is a memory and may not be accurate but it was my perception of the situation in that Bob wanted Harang locked up and so it got done.

This is another example of the difference between Special K and Walt...Walt has enough cache to do his job without too much over the shoulder impact from Bob.

edabbs44
12-25-2010, 10:55 PM
Krivsky's work in 2006 was in fact a marvel to behold.

Wow.


Walt had been on board long enough that in 2008 he should have improved the team significantly.

Wower. He was hired on Jan 13 2008 as an advisor and named GM on Apr 24 2008. You can't be serious.



Funny thing is, he improved the team in his first year by 7 games. Walt had been on board long enough that in 2008 he should have improved the team significantly. It didn't. But he realized what he had, what WK had handed him: a large talent pool. All Jocketty really had to do was plug some holes, which he didn't really do until mid 2009.

This takes nothing away from what happened. The Reds won the Central under Jocketty. But WK a big reason it happened. IMO he'll get a shot to be a GM again.

Wayne definitely pumped some talent into the system and obviously gets a piece of the credit for the division crown. But let's not act like Walt took over a dynasty in the making. The 2010 Reds did not really resemble the 2008 version all that much. Acquiring talent is only part of the battle.

TRF
12-25-2010, 11:48 PM
Wow.



Wower. He was hired on Jan 13 2008 as an advisor and named GM on Apr 24 2008. You can't be serious.




Wayne definitely pumped some talent into the system and obviously gets a piece of the credit for the division crown. But let's not act like Walt took over a dynasty in the making. The 2010 Reds did not really resemble the 2008 version all that much. Acquiring talent is only part of the battle.


Yep, a marvel. Name one player Krivsky gave up other than WMP when he filled a rotation spot, starting C and future 2 time GG at 2B?


Krivsky was hired on Feb 8, 2006, giving him LESS time to get familiar with the Reds before making what would be DRASTIC changes. Here is an exerpt from a Hal McCoy blog i found on redreporter.com

“When I’m told before the season that I better win, I’m going to get all the pitching I can get,” he said. “Fogg was a $100,000 gamble, what we would pay him if he didn’t make the team. He made it so it cost $1.5 million and I still think it’s a good deal.

“When Homer Bailey didn’t make the team and Matt Belisle was injured, who did we have for our fifth starting spot? Nobody,” he said. “That’s where Fogg fit in. He made $3.7 million from the Rockies last year.”

And then there was the $3 million paid to outfielder Corey Patterson.

“I was told to get him signed, whatever it takes,” said Krivsky, who signed him for $3 million. Patterson was paid $4.7 million last year.

And Mike Stanton? “Stanton and the $3.5 million is on me,” he said. “And Juan Castro ($975,000), but I had something going with the Los Angeles Dodgers when I was let go. I told (new GM) Walt Jocketty to please try to find something for Castro.”

Krivsky kept quiet about pitcher Rheal Cormier and it was thought the Reds had to eat his salary when they released him. But when the Reds traded outfielder Chris Denorfia to Oakland the A’s agreed to pay Cormier’s $2 million, “And, actually, with interest we got $2.08 million,” said Krivsky.

Sounds to me like some of the signings in 2007-08 were not WK's idea at all, but he owns up to his mistakes (Stanton).

Oh and if the Reds continue to win, with a WS appearance, well it may not be a dynasty, but it was SUCCESS in the making.

kaldaniels
12-25-2010, 11:54 PM
Odd blurb there about Patterson...does that suggest BCast said "sign him whatever it takes"...that really seems strange to me.

edabbs44
12-26-2010, 12:01 AM
Yep, a marvel. Name one player Krivsky gave up other than WMP when he filled a rotation spot, starting C and future 2 time GG at 2B?


Krivsky was hired on Feb 8, 2006, giving him LESS time to get familiar with the Reds before making what would be DRASTIC changes. Here is an exerpt from a Hal McCoy blog i found on redreporter.com


Sounds to me like some of the signings in 2007-08 were not WK's idea at all, but he owns up to his mistakes (Stanton).

Oh and if the Reds continue to win, with a WS appearance, well it may not be a dynasty, but it was SUCCESS in the making.

Unsure what your position really is here, but there is so much more to being a successful GM than "acquiring talent". No one will dispute that some of WK's acquisitions were kep contributors to the 2010 Reds team.

edabbs44
12-26-2010, 12:02 AM
Odd blurb there about Patterson...does that suggest BCast said "sign him whatever it takes"...that really seems strange to me.

The CPatt and Taveras acquisitions were so similar, if one was to believe that Krivsky was told to get Patterson at any cost I think you'd have to believe the same thing about the Taveras signing.

TRF
12-26-2010, 12:44 AM
The CPatt and Taveras acquisitions were so similar, if one was to believe that Krivsky was told to get Patterson at any cost I think you'd have to believe the same thing about the Taveras signing.

I don't believe that. I think It was more Dusty wanted Patterson and went to Cast to get him. I doubt very seriously that Dusty would have the same stroke to get Taveras after Patterson failed so completely.

TRF
12-26-2010, 12:53 AM
Unsure what your position really is here, but there is so much more to being a successful GM than "acquiring talent". No one will dispute that some of WK's acquisitions were kep contributors to the 2010 Reds team.

My position is this: WK did more with less time to get familiar with the Reds. And had the team on the right track. He just didn't have the depth in the rotation as Jocketty's depth was in AA-AAA or not even drafted yet when WK was fired.

Krivsky had no 5th starter, and his #2 starter was not fully developed yet (Arroyo).

You keep talking about "there is more to being a GM than acquiring talent". Yep, i agree. Sometimes you have to clean out years of losing severing ties with icons like Jose Rijo in an effort to remake the image of the organization.

WK will likely never have the success Jocketty has attained. That is true. But he had this team on the right track, and an owner that thinks any GM could take the Reds as they were in Feb. 2006 and make them winners in 2 years is delusional. And, no offense, but any fan that thinks that is too. I mean look at the roster of the 2005 team! then look at the minors at that point.

Once Jocketty was hired as "Special Advisor" the writing was on the wall. He was done.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 11:17 AM
No, Krivsky was told to win with a bad team or else he was going to get fired. It was an impossible situation.

And Walt inherited that same bad team and turned it around.
The first step was to get rid of a lot of the deadweight (Stanton, Castro, etc") that Wayne added.

If Stanton was Wayne's only mistake, I would agree with you on the rest of your commentary, but it wasn't.
Wayne did not realize the importance of having decent position players.
Thus, he trades Hamilton for a pitcher that has control problems.
He trades two starting players for two mediocre relievers during a pennant race.
He thinks that Bako, EdE, Patterson are ok.
He doesn't mind the horrible defense at any position, thus Keppinger is at SS, Dunn and Jr in the OF.

There is a reason why the Red's W-L record got worse each year with Wayne. He did more harm than good.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 11:20 AM
Right, those are the guys they brought in. 400+ leadoff appearances for Willy Taveras never happened. And Wayne's legacy is defined by some middle relievers, not the All-Star middle infielder he got for nothing or the 200+ IP horse he got for the rotation.

Both Wayne and Walt are big reasons why the Reds went to the playoffs last season. They also both have done some stupid stuff.

Sure Arroyo was a great move. As was Phillips.
I never said WillyT never happened, just that it was the only major mistake by Walt so far. (I'm sure Walt will make more mistakes, all GMs do).

Not only did he trade for Cormier, he picked up his option.

Wayne had a difficult time building a bullpen, and he undervalued position players, especially defense.

If Wayne was the GM last year, we would not have made the playoffs.

TRF
12-27-2010, 11:22 AM
And Walt inherited that same bad team and turned it around.
The first step was to get rid of a lot of the deadweight (Stanton, Castro, etc") that Wayne added.

If Stanton was Wayne's only mistake, I would agree with you on the rest of your commentary, but it wasn't.
Wayne did not realize the importance of having decent position players.
Thus, he trades Hamilton for a pitcher that has control problems.
He trades two starting players for two mediocre relievers during a pennant race.
He thinks that Bako, EdE, Patterson are ok.
He doesn't mind the horrible defense at any position, thus Keppinger is at SS, Dunn and Jr in the OF.

There is a reason why the Red's W-L record got worse each year with Wayne. He did more harm than good.

wow. I guess getting BP for almost nothing, acquiring Arroyo for WMP shows how bad WK was. And since Jocketty's ONLY major move was Rolen, how did he inherit the same bad team? The WK quote sure stated to me that he didn't exactly want Patterson. Oh, and in WK's first year he IMPROVED the W/L record by 8 games.

You are entitled to your opinion, but your post was factually wrong on several points.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 11:28 AM
Odd blurb there about Patterson...does that suggest BCast said "sign him whatever it takes"...that really seems strange to me.

Sounds like Wayne does not want to accept responsiblity for his mistakes, other than Stanton.

His excuse that Cormier was ok because he was able to sell Deno for 2 million makes no sense. The transactions are not connected. Or his excuse that he might've been able to trade Castro, etc.

Wayne had no clue on how to build a team. However, he did a good job grabbing Arroyo and Phillips. He drove away a lot of good front office people. He did a good job on the farm.

I doubt he ever gets another chance to be a GM.

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 11:43 AM
wow. I guess getting BP for almost nothing, acquiring Arroyo for WMP shows how bad WK was. And since Jocketty's ONLY major move was Rolen, how did he inherit the same bad team? The WK quote sure stated to me that he didn't exactly want Patterson. Oh, and in WK's first year he IMPROVED the W/L record by 8 games.

You are entitled to your opinion, but your post was factually wrong on several points.

Major moves aren't only acquisitions.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 11:48 AM
wow. I guess getting BP for almost nothing, acquiring Arroyo for WMP shows how bad WK was. And since Jocketty's ONLY major move was Rolen, how did he inherit the same bad team? The WK quote sure stated to me that he didn't exactly want Patterson. Oh, and in WK's first year he IMPROVED the W/L record by 8 games.

You are entitled to your opinion, but your post was factually wrong on several points.

Well, you can't say an opinion is factually wrong.
The team Walt inherited was bad enough to get Wayne fired, correct?

If Wayne truly did not want Patterson, then his job was to come up with a better option.
What about Bako, EdE, Keppinger, and keeping Hat around too long?

Wayne wasn't stuck with Jr.. Walt traded him shortly after he arrived.. There was at least one time I remember that the White Sox wanted Jr several years earlier.

If we blame Cast for all the bad moves Wayne made, how do we know that Cast didn't insist on the good moves too? Really, I think it's just excuse making.

Wayne made some really nice moves. Unfortunately, he made more bad moves than good ones.

Griffey012
12-27-2010, 12:42 PM
Well, you can't say an opinion is factually wrong.
The team Walt inherited was bad enough to get Wayne fired, correct?

If Wayne truly did not want Patterson, then his job was to come up with a better option.
What about Bako, EdE, Keppinger, and keeping Hat around too long?

Wayne wasn't stuck with Jr.. Walt traded him shortly after he arrived.. There was at least one time I remember that the White Sox wanted Jr several years earlier.

If we blame Cast for all the bad moves Wayne made, how do we know that Cast didn't insist on the good moves too? Really, I think it's just excuse making.

Wayne made some really nice moves. Unfortunately, he made more bad moves than good ones.

Wayne was definitely stuck with Jr. The only reason Walt was able to trade him was because it was in the last half season of his contract and the Reds picked up a good portion of the tab. Unless the Reds picked up a huge chunk of the remaining 2 or 3 years on Jr's deal, he was not getting delt.

The biggest reason Wayne was fired was not his job as the GM, but was because Walt Jocketty was available and was on staff. It was clear as soon as Walt was brought on board, he was going to take over as our GM sooner or later; BCast was way to fond of him.

Part of the reason Jocketty has been able to be successful during his tenure is because of the talent that was brought in during the O'Brien era and Krivsky era.

Nonetheless I like Jocketty way more than both of those.

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 12:50 PM
The biggest reason Wayne was fired was not his job as the GM, but was because Walt Jocketty was available and was on staff. It was clear as soon as Walt was brought on board, he was going to take over as our GM sooner or later; BCast was way to fond of him.

I think this was the 2nd biggest reason. The first biggest reason was that the product on the field in 2007-2008 was very lackluster, even when there was a decent amount of money to spend. Most of WK's biggest "wins" were at the major league level. Arroyo, Hamilton/Volquez, BP. He spent more money than any GM in recent memory on guys like Cordero, Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, Phillips, Gonzo, etc. And the 2007 was a joke. April 2008 was no better.

That's the biggest reason.

TRF
12-27-2010, 12:56 PM
Well, you can't say an opinion is factually wrong.
The team Walt inherited was bad enough to get Wayne fired, correct?

If Wayne truly did not want Patterson, then his job was to come up with a better option.
What about Bako, EdE, Keppinger, and keeping Hat around too long?

Wayne wasn't stuck with Jr.. Walt traded him shortly after he arrived.. There was at least one time I remember that the White Sox wanted Jr several years earlier.

If we blame Cast for all the bad moves Wayne made, how do we know that Cast didn't insist on the good moves too? Really, I think it's just excuse making.

Wayne made some really nice moves. Unfortunately, he made more bad moves than good ones.

An opinion based on incorrect facts? yeah, i can call shenanigans on that. In WK's first year the team won 8 more games than the previous year. that's one you got wrong.

Every GM makes boo boos. WT, Lincoln, and now the Gomes resigning are just three of Jocketty's. I'll go out on a limb by myself here and state that Leake to the rotation out of ST was a mistake. His peripherals show a lot of the team's success when he was pitching was luck more than skill. Leake has ability, a lot of ability, but he was clearly overmatched out of the gate. He had a lucky April, a very, very good May and was pretty horrible after that. So now his arb clock is started without proper development of the player. of all the SP candidates, he should be last on the depth chart, maybe ahead of Maloney. Certainly behind Wood, Bailey and Chapman.

Walt did NOT inherit the same bad team WK did, that's just ridiculous to even state. WK acquired a C that went on to hit 21 HR's that year, a 2B that has won two GG's, a starting P that has averaged 215 IP in his 5 years with the Reds and a 3.97 ERA. He didn't trade Jr., but there wasn't as much of a market for him then. Trading KGJ in the last year of his contract with his injury history is a lot easier. Keeping Dunn was the right thing to do, and he obviously had/has value. Too bad Walt didn't get value for him. Getting Masset was a fantastic move by Walt, but I doubt the White Sox understood what they had in Masset. Krivsky got the right 1B to bridge the gap to Votto, and got him the first week he was hired.

What WK did was phenomenal considering the time he had to do it. He signed or dealt for 3 position players and a SP in about 45 days at the start of his job.

Jocketty signed WT, traded for an aging 3B that was just about league average in the second half, and for all his post season experience was a complete non-factor, signed Lincoln to a 2 year deal, and Ramon Hernandez. Other than that, what he did do right, and has done right this offseason is let the assets he has in place mature and progress (except for Leake, who was rushed).

westofyou
12-27-2010, 01:00 PM
Jocketty signed WT, traded for an aging 3B that was just about league average in the second half


Sorry, you can't downgrade the Rolen acquisition by bundling it with the Taveras deal, that's shenanigans.

Rolen's presence can't be tied directly to any failures of the this franchise over the past 18 months, if anything even despite "just about league average" the guy won a GG, and lead this team in ways that aren't in every day's box score.

TRF
12-27-2010, 01:17 PM
Sorry, you can't downgrade the Rolen acquisition by bundling it with the Taveras deal, that's shenanigans.

Rolen's presence can't be tied directly to any failures of the this franchise over the past 18 months, if anything even despite "just about league average" the guy won a GG, and lead this team in ways that aren't in every day's box score.

Sure I can. REDREAD did much the same thing. :)

I acknowledge what Rolen did in the first half, but Jocketty extended the guy three years and he barely showed up in the second half. I hope Dusty saw this and plans to rest him more during the year otherwise 1 of two things are likely to happen. 1. he breaks down again, can't catch up to a fastball and is replacement level in the second half. 2. he gets injured, and at his age, and history of back problems he's on the DL for an extended length of time.

I don't think the Reds make the playoffs in 2010 without Rolen. I do think they might have done a bit better if he wasn't worn out by that time, but still bounced in the 1st round.

Look at the stats for players in MLB in 2010 age 35 or older. Rolen was impressive with the second highest OPS. Now change the age to 36. Now do 37. It's a steady downgrade. He might buck the odds though.

But you are right. Lumping him with WT isn't fair.

dougdirt
12-27-2010, 01:36 PM
And Walt inherited that same bad team and turned it around.


Walt inherited a team with Joey Votto in his prime years, the minor league player of the year getting called up (Jay Bruce) and a plethora of young starting pitching on its way in (Cueto in his first year, Bailey in his second along with guys like Maloney and Thompson sitting down in AAA in 2008) that gave them actual options that didn't have to fully weigh down small chunks of payroll here and there in order to have 'depth'. Wayne didn't inherit Brandon Phillips or Bronson Arroyo. Walt did. I think that is a whole lot different of a scenario than what Wayne inherited. Sure, all of those guys were Reds property when Wayne took over, but they were at very different stages while he was here.

I like what Walt has done. I like what Wayne did. But they didn't come close to inheriting the same type of clubs.

westofyou
12-27-2010, 01:44 PM
Look at the stats for players in MLB in 2010 age 35 or older. Rolen was impressive with the second highest OPS. Now change the age to 36. Now do 37. It's a steady downgrade. He might buck the odds though.

True, heck in the middle of the 60's the league rarely had 10 position players over 36, it is a gamble, but I think it's the type that pays off down the road in building the teams younger players in a similar mold.


But you are right. Lumping him with WT isn't fair.


That's true, Howsam made some horrible trades, some good ones and a couple of great ones.

I think he might have made more poor ones.

But the great ones were great.

TRF
12-27-2010, 01:44 PM
Krivsky inherited a rotation of Harang, Milton, Ortiz, Claussen and Hudson. He inherited KGJ's contract and injuries. The pen at the end of 2005 was Weathers, Merker, Belisle, Coffey and Wagner. He also had appearances by such stalwarts as SP's Keisler and Wilson, RP's Standridge, Stone, Graves and Valentine.

How is that even remotely close to what Walt had in May 2008?

TRF
12-27-2010, 01:46 PM
True, heck in the middle of the 60's the league rarely had 10 position players over 36, it is a gamble, but I think it's the type that pays off down the road in building the teams younger players in a similar mold.

Changing a culture of losing is hard, it can take years. I think WK did a lot more to do that than Jocketty has, simply because there was more to do.

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 02:02 PM
Walt inherited a team with Joey Votto in his prime years, the minor league player of the year getting called up (Jay Bruce) and a plethora of young starting pitching on its way in (Cueto in his first year, Bailey in his second along with guys like Maloney and Thompson sitting down in AAA in 2008) that gave them actual options that didn't have to fully weigh down small chunks of payroll here and there in order to have 'depth'. Wayne didn't inherit Brandon Phillips or Bronson Arroyo. Walt did. I think that is a whole lot different of a scenario than what Wayne inherited. Sure, all of those guys were Reds property when Wayne took over, but they were at very different stages while he was here.

I like what Walt has done. I like what Wayne did. But they didn't come close to inheriting the same type of clubs.

Votto was pretty prime under Wayne.

Walt definitely had more major league close/ready talent in the house upon arrival, but WK had a fairly open wallet. That 2008 team was his. He acquired Ross and Bako, Hatteberg, Phillips (and extended him), Gonzo and Keppinger, extended and picked up Dunn's option, signed Patterson, extended/acquired Arroyo and extended Harang, acquired Fogg, and acquired Bray/Cordero/Maj/Lincoln/Burton/Affeldt/Stanton.

Those acquisitions and extensions cost a lot of money. Walt may have had more close to the majors talent due to timing, but he has had hardly any money to spend since he got here. And the money he has spent, he has had to have gotten creative with the players. Walt arrived in the midst of a financial debacle in 2008 and when you look at his acquisitions, he hasn't spent a lot of money. The 2010 Reds had 5 guys on it who made more than $3MM. Walt acquired one. Walt's top 6 guys (by way of $), combined, made $6MM or so more than Cordero did alone.

Cincy's payroll went from $60MM to $75MM from 2006 to 2008. Last year it was $76MM. About 33% of that went to Harang and Cordero.

Griffey012
12-27-2010, 02:05 PM
I think this was the 2nd biggest reason. The first biggest reason was that the product on the field in 2007-2008 was very lackluster, even when there was a decent amount of money to spend. Most of WK's biggest "wins" were at the major league level. Arroyo, Hamilton/Volquez, BP. He spent more money than any GM in recent memory on guys like Cordero, Arroyo, Harang, Dunn, Phillips, Gonzo, etc. And the 2007 was a joke. April 2008 was no better.

That's the biggest reason.

I'll give you that, it's amazing how quickly you forget about 2007 and 2008 after this season.

One of the biggest differences between WK and Walt I feel like are the FA signings. Walt has shown an ability to stand pat if the right deal is not out there, where I felt like WK was much more of a person that was going to make something happen. Like with the Cordero signing, yes our bullpen was bad, yes Cordero would improve it, but is 48$ million reasonable? No. Also, WK seemed to make quite a few $1-$3 million dollar FA moves that eventually added up

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 02:12 PM
An opinion based on incorrect facts? yeah, i can call shenanigans on that. In WK's first year the team won 8 more games than the previous year. that's one you got wrong.



Ok, I stand corrected on that. The team did improve on Wayne's first year, as he got Phillips + Arroyo and Hat's first year was nice. Actually, that brings up a good point. Wayne's first year was truly awesome. In fact, other than Rule V, all his good moves that I recall were done in his first year (I maybe be forgetting something). That's another thing that lead to his firing, I think.

How can you say resigning Gomes now was a mistake? It hasn't even played out yet. He's signed at the price where all he has to do is be a decent bench player to earn his money.

Lincoln was a decent risk, but he got hurt. It's a reasonable risk to sign an injury prone reliever coming off a good year. It's not reasonable to throw away money on Stanton and Cormier, two guys that are clearly over the hill. Even most of Redszone was ok with Lincoln signing, but the Cormeir and Stanton deals threw up immediate red flags. Trading for Maj, who had a documented injury history that year was not a good move to make to get a contending team over the top (Likewise, trading for Bray who was a year or two away). I also think that doomed Wayne. When the team was close, Wayne made the team worst.. His misplaced confidence in Freel and Deno in 2006.. Then he gave Freel a 7 million dollar extension, despite Freel flopping and proving that he is not a starter.. Wayne made comments like "I don't care who plays SS".. that to me underscored his misguided belief that the pitching staff was the only thing that mattered. Wayne believed that position players did not have to play defense. His only good defenders were Phillips and Patterson.




. I'll go out on a limb by myself here and state that Leake to the rotation out of ST was a mistake. His peripherals show a lot of the team's success when he was pitching was luck more than skill. Leake has ability, a lot of ability, but he was clearly overmatched out of the gate. He had a lucky April, a very, very good May and was pretty horrible after that. So now his arb clock is started without proper development of the player. of all the SP candidates, he should be last on the depth chart, maybe ahead of Maloney. Certainly behind Wood, Bailey and Chapman.


Leake gave us the boost last year which really helped us make the playoffs. Even if he never pitches an inning again, I think it was worthwhile to promote him. I am not worried about Leake's arbitration clock being started. If need be, they can option him to AAA for 2 or 3 more seasons, right? If he hasn't figured out how to pitch by then, I guess we are stuck with another Homer dilemma.. Leake might have been hurt last year as well. He did go on the DL (although maybe the injury was fake?)

Leake has already done more at the ML level than Maloney will ever do. I would not be surprised to see Maloney cut loose this year, as I think he is either out of options (or very close to being out).

Anyhow, Leake helped us win the divsion, so it worked out well. He bought time for Wood and Chapman to stay in the minors. IMO, if Wood/Chapman are the more valuable assets, it makes sense to develop them properly at Leake's expense. But I think Leake will be fine. Not a Cy Young guy, but a fine middle of the rotation guy.




Walt did NOT inherit the same bad team WK did, that's just ridiculous to even state. WK acquired a C that went on to hit 21 HR's that year, a 2B that has won two GG's, a starting P that has averaged 215 IP in his 5 years with the Reds and a 3.97 ERA. He didn't trade Jr., but there wasn't as much of a market for him then. Trading KGJ in the last year of his contract with his injury history is a lot easier. Keeping Dunn was the right thing to do, and he obviously had/has value. Too bad Walt didn't get value for him. Getting Masset was a fantastic move by Walt, but I doubt the White Sox understood what they had in Masset. Krivsky got the right 1B to bridge the gap to Votto, and got him the first week he was hired.


David Ross gave the Reds one great year, then like many of Wayne's pickups, he was extended for more money than he was worth. The Dave Ross that Walt got only hit 225 and loss his job to Paul Bako..
Somehow Walt was able to trade Jr within months, and get a good reliever for him.. so Jr was not that immovable. If it was so easy to trade Jr in the last year, why didn't Wayne do it before the season started?

I'm guessing that Wayne would've probably resigned Dunn. That just fits Wayne's MO. The truth is that Dunn was probably worth about as much as Jr at that time. In the following offseason, AZ didn't want to retain him, and his only multiyear contract was with the Nationals.. Please recall that Dunn was resisting moving to 1b. That was one reason that Dunn agreed to his previous extension with the Reds.. The Reds promised him that he could stay in LF.
Just this year, reportedly, a trade of Dunn to Tampa was killed because Dunn refused to be a DH.. Dunn is a guy that has hurt his own marketablity in the past by not moving to a less demanding defensive position. I like Dunn as a person, but frankly.. giving Dunn to AZ for basically nothing was one of the best things this team did. Otherwise, we still might be paying him 15 million/year and have him still patrolling LF, which would've probably prevented us from improving the team. I kind of doubt Wayne would have had the vision to try something different than Dunn..









What WK did was phenomenal considering the time he had to do it. He signed or dealt for 3 position players and a SP in about 45 days at the start of his job.


Yes, the problem is that the rest of his tenure was not nearly as successful.
He was an upgrade from DanO, no doubt.



Jocketty signed WT, traded for an aging 3B that was just about league average in the second half, and for all his post season experience was a complete non-factor, signed Lincoln to a 2 year deal, and Ramon Hernandez. Other than that, what he did do right, and has done right this offseason is let the assets he has in place mature and progress (except for Leake, who was rushed).

Oh, the old argument that the team was already on cruise control, and any GM could've won the division, since the farm was so ripe with talent.

The whole team was a non factor in the playoffs, but at least we got there.
Criticize Rolen all you'd like, but he was a huge upgrade to EdE (another guy that Wayne did not have the guts to cut bait on).

Arroyo has come out and said that the team finally got them the talent they needed to compete this year, something that did not happen in previous years. Seems that is praise for Walt.

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 02:13 PM
Changing a culture of losing is hard, it can take years. I think WK did a lot more to do that than Jocketty has, simply because there was more to do.

Out of curiosity, how do you think that WK accomplished that? Because the 2007-2008 Reds were, in my mind, just as pathetic on the field as what was there prior to Wayne's arrival. The Reds were 18 games under .500 on August 1, 2007, .5 games in front of Pittsburgh. When Wayne was canned on 4/23/08, the Reds were 9-13 and, on August 1, 2008, the team was in dead last in the Central, 8 games under.

Changing a culture of losing doesn't necessarily mean acquiring a few players who were good ballplayers. It means showing results on the field. That culture didn't change much when WK was here. Those teams were just plain bad.

If WK was scaling back, I would have had zero issue. But when you are committing the capital that he was, the product should have at least improved on the field. It didn't.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 02:31 PM
Walt inherited a team with Joey Votto in his prime years, the minor league player of the year getting called up (Jay Bruce) and a plethora of young starting pitching on its way in


And Wayne signed Hat to another year, because he didn't think Votto was ready (or at least needed insurance).
Wayne kept Bruce in the minors that year.
We can make whatever conspiracy theories we want, but it seems clear that the GM was not under orders from Cast to save Bruce's arb time.
Cueto was a young pitcher that was ready.
With all respect, Bailey, Maloney and Thompson have not really produced anything yet, so I don't see how Walt benefited from having them.

If we want to play the "GM inherited" argument.. Well Wayne inherited quite a bit of OF talent. He wisely used Pena to get Arroyo. He inherited Harang.
He was given plenty of money, but decided to spend it on Rick White, Joe Mays, Cormier, Guardado, Kim, Chris Hammond.. He did make some decent spending choices like Weathers and Mercker. Overall, did he give the team the depth it needed each year? I don't think so. That's why guys like Michalak and the Lizard were pressed into service every year. He was counting on guys like Belsisle and Sarloos to put up quality starts.

He finally figured out the bullpen in 2008, thanks largely to the much maligned Lincoln (I guess he got lucky ?? ) and Affedlt and dumping a ton of money on Cordero and Weathers.



I like what Walt has done. I like what Wayne did. But they didn't come close to inheriting the same type of clubs.

Walt inherited a bad team. The most fortunate thing about the team that Walt inherited was that approximately 13 of the players were pending free agents. We've definitely have had worst GMs than Wayne, but he was far from being great.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3363283


The answer: 21 games into the season.

Off to their worst start in five years, the Reds fired Wayne Krivsky on Wednesday and replaced him with Jocketty

Castellini said a 9-12 start was the main reason he turned to Jocketty

Jocketty's job will be to set a course for the impatient owner, who has increased the payroll and expanded the front office during his two years in charge but hasn't been able to produce a winner. Cincinnati's payroll increased from $69 million at the start of last year to $74.3 million on opening day

kpresidente
12-27-2010, 02:56 PM
Walt inherited a bad team.

C'mon man. This is the what team would've looked like last year with WK's players:

1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Gonzalez
CA Hanigan
LF ?? Dunn ??
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

SP Arroyo
SP Cueto
SP Volquez
SP Bailey
SP Harang

CL Cordero
RP Ondrusek
RP Burton
RP Roenicke?
RP Smith


Seriously, that team doesn't win 90 games, too? At least something close to it? Sure, there's no Rolen. He's worth a few games over EE. Maybe Rhodes is another win. But Gonzo's significantly better than Cabrera. If Dunn stays, he's a couple wins better than Gomes. All in all, it's a pretty similar team.

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 03:03 PM
C'mon man. This is the what team would've looked like last year with WK's players:

1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Gonzalez
CA Hanigan
LF ?? Dunn ??
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

SP Arroyo
SP Cueto
SP Volquez
SP Bailey
SP Harang

CL Cordero
RP Ondrusek
RP Burton
RP Roenicke?
RP Smith


Seriously, that team doesn't win 90 games, too? At least something close to it? Sure, there's no Rolen. He's worth a few games over EE. Maybe Rhodes is another win. But Gonzo's better than Cabrera. If Dunn stays, he's a couple wins better than Gomes. All in all, it's a pretty similar team.

90 games? In the majors?

kpresidente
12-27-2010, 03:12 PM
90 games? In the majors?

Why don't you explain where it's so bad, smart guy?

Is the hitting worse? No.
Is the pitching worse? No.
Is the defense worse? At one position.

Thanks for playing. Come back when you've got something.

dougdirt
12-27-2010, 03:22 PM
Votto was pretty prime under Wayne.

Walt definitely had more major league close/ready talent in the house upon arrival, but WK had a fairly open wallet. That 2008 team was his. He acquired Ross and Bako, Hatteberg, Phillips (and extended him), Gonzo and Keppinger, extended and picked up Dunn's option, signed Patterson, extended/acquired Arroyo and extended Harang, acquired Fogg, and acquired Bray/Cordero/Maj/Lincoln/Burton/Affeldt/Stanton.

Those acquisitions and extensions cost a lot of money. Walt may have had more close to the majors talent due to timing, but he has had hardly any money to spend since he got here. And the money he has spent, he has had to have gotten creative with the players. Walt arrived in the midst of a financial debacle in 2008 and when you look at his acquisitions, he hasn't spent a lot of money. The 2010 Reds had 5 guys on it who made more than $3MM. Walt acquired one. Walt's top 6 guys (by way of $), combined, made $6MM or so more than Cordero did alone.

Cincy's payroll went from $60MM to $75MM from 2006 to 2008. Last year it was $76MM. About 33% of that went to Harang and Cordero.

It has been well noted that Wayne wasn't the only person signing contracts either. There were several contracts signed under his watch that he had nothing at all to do with. Its tough to say that he spent all this money when in truth, he didn't. Sure, the Reds spent it. But he wasn't in on it all.

TheNext44
12-27-2010, 03:23 PM
C'mon man. This is the what team would've looked like last year with WK's players:

1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Gonzalez
CA Hanigan
LF ?? Dunn ??
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

SP Arroyo
SP Cueto
SP Volquez
SP Bailey
SP Harang

CL Cordero
RP Ondrusek
RP Burton
RP Roenicke?
RP Smith


Seriously, that team doesn't win 90 games, too? At least something close to it? Sure, there's no Rolen. He's worth a few games over EE. Maybe Rhodes is another win. But Gonzo's significantly better than Cabrera. If Dunn stays, he's a couple wins better than Gomes. All in all, it's a pretty similar team.

I agree Wayne handed a solid team over to Walt. But if Krivsky were still the GM, my fear is that the team would look very different from the one you have above. As I've said before, wayne's biggest fault was not having the gravitas with Cast to convince him to be patient. Heck, the first thing Cast said after he fired Wayne was the infamous, "The losing stops now" quote.

Jocketty got it Cast's head that they werent going to compete right away, but that hey had the building blocks to compete in a few years if they just wrer patient. I don't think Krivsky ever convinces Cast of this, and is forced to trade guys like Stubbs, Wood, Cueto, Bailey and/or for big named vets, and to sign guys like Pat Burrell and Derek Lowe to crippling Corderoesque contracts.

Krivsky did a great job and his contributions to the Reds division title in 2010 should not be understated. However, I just don't think he ever would have gotten Cast to go along with a wait and see approach... Ever.

camisadelgolf
12-27-2010, 03:24 PM
And Wayne signed Hat to another year, because he didn't think Votto was ready (or at least needed insurance).
He didn't 'sign' Hatteberg to that last year because of doubts about Votto. There was a club option, and it was picked up because it was such a bargain compared to market value. If anything, give Krivsky credit for getting so much production for so cheap out of Hatteberg. The only problem was that Hatteberg's bat speed declined in the off-season, and there was no way to prepare for that except to hand the reigns to Joey Votto, which is exactly what happened.

Wayne kept Bruce in the minors that year.
We can make whatever conspiracy theories we want, but it seems clear that the GM was not under orders from Cast to save Bruce's arb time.
How is it clear?

With all respect, Bailey, Maloney and Thompson have not really produced anything yet, so I don't see how Walt benefited from having them.
Granted, Thompson hasn't really done anything (although he's still young and on the roster), but both Bailey and Maloney have contributed in positive ways during Jocketty's tenures.

If we want to play the "GM inherited" argument.. Well Wayne inherited quite a bit of OF talent. He wisely used Pena to get Arroyo. He inherited Harang.
He inherited Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Chris Denorfia, Ryan Freel, and Chris Dickerson. Dunn was so bad in left that it reduced his value to that of an average regular. Griffey was a huge negative. Kearns got hurt and supposedly hasn't recovered fully. Pena was flipped for Arroyo. Denorfia was pretty much sold, and the Reds haven't missed him since. Freel had only one more year left in him. Dickerson was still in the middle of being developed and never played for the Reds until Jocketty took over. The same is true of Bruce. Krivsky inherited a lot of big names in the outfield, but he didn't inherit a lot of talent. What he brought on board was Drew Stubbs, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, and Josh Hamilton. Let's compare that to Jocketty's track record of outfielders since being GM of the Reds, shall we?

He was given plenty of money, but decided to spend it on Rick White, Joe Mays, Cormier, Guardado, Kim, Chris Hammond.. He did make some decent spending choices like Weathers and Mercker. Overall, did he give the team the depth it needed each year? I don't think so. That's why guys like Michalak and the Lizard were pressed into service every year. He was counting on guys like Belsisle and Sarloos to put up quality starts.
Have you considered how much all those guys cost? White, Mays, and Kim were all paid less than $500k combined. Guardado actually did well when he was here, so I'm not sure why you'd criticize that acquisition. Rheal Cormier was a bad move, but the Reds sold Denorfia to the Athletics because of it, and as a result, it hardly hurt the Reds. Chris Hammond was signed by Dan O'Brien, so don't hang that on Krivsky.

He finally figured out the bullpen in 2008, thanks largely to the much maligned Lincoln (I guess he got lucky ?? ) and Affedlt and dumping a ton of money on Cordero and Weathers.
Don't forget about Bill Bray and Jared Burton, both of whom were Krivsky acquisitions. Did he overpay the bullpen? Yes. But if he had actually inherited anyone worth keeping around, he wouldn't have needed to.

Walt inherited a bad team. The most fortunate thing about the team that Walt inherited was that approximately 13 of the players were pending free agents. We've definitely have had worst GMs than Wayne, but he was far from being great.
Here are the non-free-agents-to-be that Jocketty inherited: Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jeff Keppinger, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Dave Ross, Chris Dickerson, Ryan Hanigan, Paul Janish, Adam Rosales, Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Francisco Cordero, Bill Bray, Jared Burton, Homer Bailey.
Now let's compare that to Krivsky: Joey Votto, Jason LaRue, Felipe Lopez, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Austin Kearns, Ryan Freel, Wily Mo Pena, Javier Valentin, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Harang, Eric Milton, Brandon Claussen, Matt Belisle, Kent Mercker, Todd Coffey, Ryan Wagner, and Elizardo Ramirez.

I really don't see how you could make the argument that Jocketty inherited an organization that was in worse position than Krivsky did.

Griffey012
12-27-2010, 03:34 PM
Lincoln was a decent risk, but he got hurt. It's a reasonable risk to sign an injury prone reliever coming off a good year. It's not reasonable to throw away money on Stanton and Cormier, two guys that are clearly over the hill. Even most of Redszone was ok with Lincoln signing, but the Cormeir and Stanton deals threw up immediate red flags.

The Lincoln move was horrible no questions asked. Post All-Star break in 2008 Lincoln was awful. There was all the sign we needed to not resign him to a ridiculous 2 yr 5 mil contract. Equally as bad as the Stanton contract. At least Cormier was only a 1 year deal.


Trading for Maj, who had a documented injury history that year was not a good move to make to get a contending team over the top (Likewise, trading for Bray who was a year or two away). I also think that doomed Wayne. When the team was close, Wayne made the team worst..

I am surprised we still have to bring up this trade, it's pretty clear that all players involved bad players. Except maybe Bray. We won the deal in the long term. That team really had no business claiming to be in contention, it was not that good.



Somehow Walt was able to trade Jr within months, and get a good reliever for him.. so Jr was not that immovable. If it was so easy to trade Jr in the last year, why didn't Wayne do it before the season started?

KGJ had 10 and 5 rights, thus he had to approve a trade. Griffey really didn't want to leave Cincinnati and agreed to approve a trade to the Sox after talking with Ozzie, Kenny Williams, and his family. Masset was nothing more than an average arm who was up and down between AAA and long relief. He blossomed after a move to the bullpen, which could be as much credit to the Reds pitching coaches and scouts and it was Jocketty.


What I believe is a big difference between Walt and WK's situation was the Walt inherited an organization that had depth, he could pull in guy after guy into the bullpen if people struggled. WK had to make quick acquisitions, which ultimately was the downfall of WK.

WK didn't do a bad job for us, he left us in a much better situation than when he came in. Walt took the team WK left and pushed some more buttons to get the wheel spinning.

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 03:34 PM
Why don't you explain where it's so bad, smart guy?

Is the hitting worse? No.
Is the pitching worse? No.
Is the defense worse? At one position.

Thanks for playing. Come back when you've got something.

Wow. Ok, here are my thoughts:

1) The defense is likely materially worse in LF as well. If you believe in UZR, it could be much, much worse. But we don't really know since Dunn isn't really a LFer anymore. So you still need to find a LFer, unless you want to move Votto. Which could change a whole lot. Add that to the Rolen to EdE downgrade and that's two huge downgrades.

2) Pitching? The bullpen is likely much, much worse. Masset and Rhodes were the best relievers on the 2010 team and WK didn't really have the golden touch when it came to the pen, from what we saw previously.

3) Starters? Volquez blew out his arm. Bailey wasn't pitching well at the start of 2010, God only knows what happens if he pitches the whole year there. We all know about Harang. That staff isn't a 90 game winning staff.

And, if you believe many outside of this board, guys like Rolen, Gomes and Cabrera did a lot to change the team beyond their own personal stats. We really don't know what effect that they had on the performance of others. Does Votto get to the MVP level w/o Rolen or Cabrera, for example? Does Bruce turn it on w/o Walt's additions like Edmonds?

edabbs44
12-27-2010, 03:36 PM
It has been well noted that Wayne wasn't the only person signing contracts either. There were several contracts signed under his watch that he had nothing at all to do with. Its tough to say that he spent all this money when in truth, he didn't. Sure, the Reds spent it. But he wasn't in on it all.

The only one I saw was the Patterson one and, to be honest, the only person saying that was Wayne. Unless you have another source to quote.

Which ones are you referencing?

kaldaniels
12-27-2010, 03:38 PM
What about the "controversial" (yet in the real world, insignificant) Kearns trade. Do those taking up the cause for Wayne have any opinion on that one? Redszone hated that trade. What would the archives show?

dougdirt
12-27-2010, 03:42 PM
The only one I saw was the Patterson one and, to be honest, the only person saying that was Wayne. Unless you have another source to quote.

Which ones are you referencing?

Wayne has said in the past there were more deals done without his knowing. I don't have the quotes with links, but he said it.

kaldaniels
12-27-2010, 03:45 PM
From Waynes wikipedia page...

"During his time at Baltimore, he played a key role in the trade of catcher Ramón Hernández to Krivsky's former team, the Reds, in return for utility player Ryan Freel, along with minor league infielders Justin Turner and Brandon Waring"

Point - Jocketty

camisadelgolf
12-27-2010, 03:57 PM
The Lincoln move was horrible no questions asked. Post All-Star break in 2008 Lincoln was awful. There was all the sign we needed to not resign him to a ridiculous 2 yr 5 mil contract. Equally as bad as the Stanton contract. At least Cormier was only a 1 year deal.
In case anyone forgot, it was Jocketty that extended Lincoln.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 03:57 PM
C'mon man. This is the what team would've looked like last year with WK's players:

1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Gonzalez
CA Hanigan
LF ?? Dunn ??
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

SP Arroyo
SP Cueto
SP Volquez
SP Bailey
SP Harang

CL Cordero
RP Ondrusek
RP Burton
RP Roenicke?
RP Smith


Seriously, that team doesn't win 90 games, too? At least something close to it? Sure, there's no Rolen. He's worth a few games over EE. Maybe Rhodes is another win. But Gonzo's significantly better than Cabrera. If Dunn stays, he's a couple wins better than Gomes. All in all, it's a pretty similar team.

You are assuming that WK would've stood pat the last 2 years. Given his desire for roster turning, that's probably not going to be true.

Rolen is probably worth at least 3 games over EdE
Ramon Hernandez worth about 2 games over Bako like player that Hannigan would share time with, plus one reason both catchers played so well is that they shared the position.

A player like Rhodes is hard to put a value on.. Only 55 IP, but 69 games, almost all were in pretty high leverage situations. I would argue that it's more than one game over the average reliever though. Texas agrees, since they are giving him a pretty rich contract. We also got a good boost from Chapman, another Walt acqusion.

OCab was very productive in the first half of the year until he got hurt. I agree, after he was injured he was not of much use. But overall, he was better than Gonzales. Like Leake, his early contributions were valuable in turning the team around, and getting them to first place. This is difficult to qualitify. OCab got many timely hits also. Whether that was a true skill or just random luck, he still got them to win many games. I did not watch AGon that much last year. I see from his stat line that he had a good August and beginning of the season, so maybe it's a push.

I just don't see a whole lot of depth in your lineup listed above.
That was a strength of last year's team, and something Wayne was weak at. We'd probably still have Freel and Castro on the team if Wayne was running it :) (Joking)

I could make the argument that
Rolen added 2-3 wins
Hernandez added 1-2
Chapman and Rhodes.. 2-3..

So yea, I could see that if Wayne was running the team, we'd be over 500 but still lose the division. I could see Wayne bringing in more washed up vets for the pen instead of Ondrusek and Smith. With Volquez's health problems, and Homer's questions, another vet starter like Fogg or Joe Mays would be brought in, because Dunn's contract would leave no payroll room.

We'd still have the horrible, deflating left side defense that cost us so many games in the Wayne era. Dunn might still get pitched around in every key situation to get to EdE. Without Edmunds, maybe Bruce does not finish as strong.

westofyou
12-27-2010, 03:59 PM
YouTube - Arcade Original Pong (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPkUvfL8T1I&feature=related)

kaldaniels
12-27-2010, 03:59 PM
In case anyone forgot, it was Jocketty that extended Lincoln.

Wasn't it 2 yr 4 million, not 2 yr 5 million.

camisadelgolf
12-27-2010, 04:00 PM
Wasn't it 2 yr 4 million, not 2 yr 5 million.
Correct. $1.5M in 2009 + $2.5M in 2010.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 04:03 PM
It has been well noted that Wayne wasn't the only person signing contracts either. There were several contracts signed under his watch that he had nothing at all to do with. Its tough to say that he spent all this money when in truth, he didn't. Sure, the Reds spent it. But he wasn't in on it all.

Ok, more accusations that somehow Wayne wasn't really the GM.

Let's say hypothetically that Dusty wanted Patterson (although there's never been proof of that).. Isn't it the GM's job to say NO? Isn't it the GM's job to find someone better? Or isn't it the GM's job to just offer Patterson min salary in a take it or leave it offer? I mean, it's not like Dusty is going to quit because the Reds failed to sign Patterson.

In contrast, I think Dusty was more productive under the Wayne era than he was given credit for. Dusty was the one that lobbied for Stanton to get released before the 2008 season.. Also notice how a lot of dead weight was immediately removed when Wayne was fired. Wayne was so busy trying to find a home for Castro (supposedly to LA) that he didn't care that Castro was dragging the team down. Castro should've never been signed in the first place.

Really, I lose a lot of respect for Wayne when he takes credit for all the good moves, yet blames the bad things on someone else. Dusty (deservedly) got a lot of crap when he said basically that he lost because it was not "his team".
Do I hear Wayne give proper credit to the scout that saw Phillips hit against Oswalt in spring training? That scout that lobbied the Reds to pick up Phillips?
Seems that he deserves more credit than Wayne, by Wayne logic.

IMO, a GM should get credit for all the good and bad under his watch.

dougdirt
12-27-2010, 04:24 PM
Ok, more accusations that somehow Wayne wasn't really the GM.

Let's say hypothetically that Dusty wanted Patterson (although there's never been proof of that).. Isn't it the GM's job to say NO? Isn't it the GM's job to find someone better? Or isn't it the GM's job to just offer Patterson min salary in a take it or leave it offer? I mean, it's not like Dusty is going to quit because the Reds failed to sign Patterson.

In contrast, I think Dusty was more productive under the Wayne era than he was given credit for. Dusty was the one that lobbied for Stanton to get released before the 2008 season.. Also notice how a lot of dead weight was immediately removed when Wayne was fired. Wayne was so busy trying to find a home for Castro (supposedly to LA) that he didn't care that Castro was dragging the team down. Castro should've never been signed in the first place.

Really, I lose a lot of respect for Wayne when he takes credit for all the good moves, yet blames the bad things on someone else. Dusty (deservedly) got a lot of crap when he said basically that he lost because it was not "his team".
Do I hear Wayne give proper credit to the scout that saw Phillips hit against Oswalt in spring training? That scout that lobbied the Reds to pick up Phillips?
Seems that he deserves more credit than Wayne, by Wayne logic.

IMO, a GM should get credit for all the good and bad under his watch.

According to Wayne, he was told by his boss that these deals were done. He wasn't able to say no. You are making some large assumptions by assuming that Wayne is taking credit only for the good. Outside of Patterson, he hasn't said that any other specific moves were made without his consent. You are assuming he is only referring to the bad ones. We don't know that.

As for your final statement, in general I would agree. But when your owner is making deals without your knowledge, I have to disagree. Should he have just resigned from his dream job?

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 04:27 PM
He didn't 'sign' Hatteberg to that last year because of doubts about Votto. There was a club option, and it was picked up because it was such a bargain compared to market value. If anything, give Krivsky credit for getting so much production for so cheap out of Hatteberg. The only problem was that Hatteberg's bat speed declined in the off-season, and there was no way to prepare for that except to hand the reigns to Joey Votto, which is exactly what happened.


But this is the pattern though. If Wayne gets a good year out of a player, he extends him way too long. Hat served his purpose. It was time to move on.
"Signed" or "Picked up the option".. same thing.. Wayne didn't have to bring him back and waste the money. More dead weight on the 2008 team.



How is it clear?


Because Walt ended up Calling up Bruce early enough to be a super 2 player anyhow.
So Wayne was under no orders to keep Bruce in the minors to put off arbitration.
If that was the motive, Wayne himself decided it, not the ownership.



Granted, Thompson hasn't really done anything (although he's still young and on the roster), but both Bailey and Maloney have contributed in positive ways during Jocketty's tenures.


Homer gave us about 100 IP of 4.50 ERA.. That is not bad, but not exactly earth shaking.
Malony has not given us much of anything his entire career. He stinks. That's why they keep him in the minors.




He inherited Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Chris Denorfia, Ryan Freel, and Chris Dickerson. Dunn was so bad in left that it reduced his value to that of an average regular. Griffey was a huge negative. Kearns got hurt and supposedly hasn't recovered fully. Pena was flipped for Arroyo. Denorfia was pretty much sold, and the Reds haven't missed him since. Freel had only one more year left in him. Dickerson was still in the middle of being developed and never played for the Reds until Jocketty took over. The same is true of Bruce. Krivsky inherited a lot of big names in the outfield, but he didn't inherit a lot of talent. What he brought on board was Drew Stubbs, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, and Josh Hamilton. Let's compare that to Jocketty's track record of outfielders since being GM of the Reds, shall we?


When Wayne came on board, the OF was viewed as a strength.
Griffey had just OPSed 946 in 2005.
Kearns hadn't completely lost his luster yet. He had begun to decline, but people were still hopeful, as he was only 26. Dunn was coming off a 927 OPS year. Wayne thought so much of Dunn that he eventually extended him and tried to build the team around him. Pena had enough percieved potential to get Arroyo. Wayne percieved Freel and Deno as having value, as he planned on using them to replace Kearns.. Remember the famous "It's Deno's time" quote?
Freel was valued enough by Wayne to extend him.. Now it is easy to see in hindsight the true value of some of these guys, but Wayne certainly thought a lot of them by his actions.





Have you considered how much all those guys cost? White, Mays, and Kim were all paid less than $500k combined. Guardado actually did well when he was here, so I'm not sure why you'd criticize that acquisition. Rheal Cormier was a bad move, but the Reds sold Denorfia to the Athletics because of it, and as a result, it hardly hurt the Reds. Chris Hammond was signed by Dan O'Brien, so don't hang that on Krivsky.


Ok, sorry about Hammond, I forgot who signed him, but I believe you.
But here is the big point.. Wayne wasted money on bad signings and extensions..Therefore, he was forced to backfill with guys like Guardo, Kim, etc.




Don't forget about Bill Bray and Jared Burton, both of whom were Krivsky acquisitions. Did he overpay the bullpen? Yes. But if he had actually inherited anyone worth keeping around, he wouldn't have needed to.


Burton had one decent year and then pretty much vanished. Non factor last year.
Bray might finally be putting it together.
Did Walt whine about the team he inherited? Nope. He got rid of the trash and started spending his money far more wisely.




Here are the non-free-agents-to-be that Jocketty inherited: Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jeff Keppinger, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Dave Ross, Chris Dickerson, Ryan Hanigan, Paul Janish, Adam Rosales, Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Francisco Cordero, Bill Bray, Jared Burton, Homer Bailey.
Now let's compare that to Krivsky: Joey Votto, Jason LaRue, Felipe Lopez, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Austin Kearns, Ryan Freel, Wily Mo Pena, Javier Valentin, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Harang, Eric Milton, Brandon Claussen, Matt Belisle, Kent Mercker, Todd Coffey, Ryan Wagner, and Elizardo Ramirez.

I really don't see how you could make the argument that Jocketty inherited an organization that was in worse position than Krivsky did.


The team was in shambles when Wayne left.. Wayne never got the team to finish above 500. It was time to ax him.
Based on his track record, I am confident that Wayne would not have gotten us to the playoffs last year.

Based on your lists of inherited, Wayne got better talent. Wayne got Harang's good and cheap years. Walt got the bad and expensive ones. Same for Cordero. The only millstone that Wayne inherited was Milton who I think only had 1 more year left. Wayne inherited far better position players.

The heart of the matter was that Wayne was very inefficient in spending his limited resources. Wayne did a great job in his first year, I will give you that.. But after that, it was pretty poor. Lots of money spent and roster churning, but poor results.

mth123
12-27-2010, 04:28 PM
This is silly IMO. The situations between WK and WJ are like apples and oranges. WK inherited a team that was flawed in many ways and had no kids on the verge to fix it with. As a result he was dealing, dumpster diving and signing stopgaps to overpriced deals. Its easier to avoid making a Cormier or Stanton signing when there are kids coming up and ready. Under Dano's and WK's watch kids were added and developed while the overpriced guys were attempting to resemble a major league team. By the time WJ arrived, the farm was producing and the need for Juan Castro, Jeff Conine and others of that ilk was a thing of the past. My opinion was that the Reds should have passed on the pricey has beens at the time and given a chance to a long shot with upside (like Brandon Phillips was), but had WJ been in WK's position, I find it hard to believe he would have done much better. Both of those guys did OK moving the team from 70 win talent to 80+ win talent.

I do however, think that taking the next step was a completely different animal and I'm not sure that WK would have been able to take the team the rest of the way, but we'll never know because WK wasn't operating under the conditions that WJ was just like WJ wasn't saddled with WK's problems. Comparing who they signed and for how much is just not something that can be compared. Where they were in the standings, who was available from the farm and what the market was like at the time are all differences that are hard to reconcile. Remember that when WK took over, the team had to overpay just to get crummy players to play in Cincy.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 04:34 PM
According to Wayne, he was told by his boss that these deals were done. He wasn't able to say no. You are making some large assumptions by assuming that Wayne is taking credit only for the good. Outside of Patterson, he hasn't said that any other specific moves were made without his consent. You are assuming he is only referring to the bad ones. We don't know that.

As for your final statement, in general I would agree. But when your owner is making deals without your knowledge, I have to disagree. Should he have just resigned from his dream job?

Where is the documentation that Wayne was "forced" to sign Patterson.
We have Wayne saying he was told to sign Patterson, at any cost.
But Cast is not a meddling owner. For all we know, Wayne tried to sign Patterson to a 1 million deal, and Patterson turned it down. Then Wayne lobbied Cast for more money, saying how Patterson was key, so Cast agreed to sign him at any cost.

Wayne has obviously distorted the truth a bit to make himself look good in other parts of the interview. How does selling Deno "undo" the horrible Cormier move? I guess it made John Allen happy, but as a fan, it doesn't remove the suffering I had to endure with Cormier. It doesn't add back wins.

There's no evidence in my mind that Wayne was forced to do anything.
It's just sour grapes from being fired unexpectedly. Even if he was "Forced" to get Patteron.. Patterson was just a drop in the bucket. It's not even Wayne's worst mistake. I can accept taking a 3 million dollar flyer in a reclamation project in hopes of filling a gaping hole in CF. Not all these risks pan out.. There was a bigger issue at play with Wayne. He made so many similiar moves like this.. overpaying for bad players and just throwing crap against the wall, hoping it would stick.

HokieRed
12-27-2010, 04:35 PM
As usual an excellent, rational post from mth123. It seems to me too that a fair narrative of what's happened since Bowden's departure is that the team has been steadily improved by three GM's, each operating under different and difficult circumstances: O'Brien, WK, WJ.

dougdirt
12-27-2010, 04:37 PM
Because Walt ended up Calling up Bruce early enough to be a super 2 player anyhow.
So Wayne was under no orders to keep Bruce in the minors to put off arbitration.


The date is a moving target that you don't know until years down the road. Walt kept Jay Bruce in AAA until the end of May to try and avoid early arbitration.

dougdirt
12-27-2010, 04:39 PM
There's no evidence in my mind that Wayne was forced to do anything.
It's just sour grapes from being fired unexpectedly. Even if he was "Forced" to get Patteron.. Patterson was just a drop in the bucket. It's not even Wayne's worst mistake. I can accept taking a 3 million dollar flyer in a reclamation project in hopes of filling a gaping hole in CF. Not all these risks pan out.. There was a bigger issue at play with Wayne. He made so many similiar moves like this.. overpaying for bad players and just throwing crap against the wall, hoping it would stick.

All I know is that a guy that I have known for 8 years now, who is a scout for a national league team was told by Wayne that moves were made without his knowledge and he didn't find out until after they were made. Take it for what its worth I guess.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 04:43 PM
This is silly IMO. The situations between WK and WJ are like apples and oranges. WK inherited a team that was flawed in many ways and had no kids on the verge to fix it with. .

Walt was actually in a similiar situation.
However, Walt filled his holes with Hernandez, Cairo, Rolen, OCab, Rhodes, and Gomes.

IIRC, the only starting position player from Wayne's 2006 opening day roster that is still getting playing time is Phillips. If I recall, Votto was benched on opening day.. (maybe not).. so that's a turnover of 7 or 8 position players. That's significant. There was also significant turnover in the bullpen. I agree that Walt was blessed with the farm, but he also picked Leake in the draft and had the guts to promote him. He had to work around an ineffective Harang and an injured Volquez.

Sure, Walt inherited Bruce, but the previous GM thought it was best to keep Bruce in AAA.

This revisionist history that Wayne had already set up the Reds for success, but just wasn't given enough time to see it through doesn't make sense.

I can't believe all the love for a GM that never finished above 500, and consistently made more dumb moves than good ones. He traded away the 2010 AL MVP for a pitcher on PEDs that had a history of poor control, yet that move is still defended to this day.

TRF
12-27-2010, 04:51 PM
O'Brien was fortunate to be the GM during two excellent draft classes. Unfortunately he threw money at Milton, Ortiz etc. Krivsky had 1 starter worth a damn, Harang.

Let that sink in, 1 starter in his rotation the day he started that wasn't horrible.

It's like being the GM of the Pirates every year.

And yes, I'd have made the Hamilton/Volquez trade every year. I love how you mention Volquez' PED use without mentioning Hamilton's crack addiction. Volquez was a hammer in 2008 and appears to be poised to return to that level in 2011. The Reds were pitching poor still when that trade was made with Bruce and Stubbs on the horizon and Jr. and Dunn in house.

Again, WK had way more to do than Jocketty to create a winner.

mth123
12-27-2010, 04:56 PM
Walt was actually in a similiar situation.
However, Walt filled his holes with Hernandez, Cairo, Rolen, OCab, Rhodes, and Gomes.

IIRC, the only starting position player from Wayne's 2006 opening day roster that is still getting playing time is Phillips. If I recall, Votto was benched on opening day.. (maybe not).. so that's a turnover of 7 or 8 position players. That's significant. There was also significant turnover in the bullpen. I agree that Walt was blessed with the farm, but he also picked Leake in the draft and had the guts to promote him. He had to work around an ineffective Harang and an injured Volquez.

Sure, Walt inherited Bruce, but the previous GM thought it was best to keep Bruce in AAA.

This revisionist history that Wayne had already set up the Reds for success, but just wasn't given enough time to see it through doesn't make sense.

I can't believe all the love for a GM that never finished above 500, and consistently made more dumb moves than good ones. He traded away the 2010 AL MVP for a pitcher on PEDs that had a history of poor control, yet that move is still defended to this day.

Walt inherited Bruce, Cueto, Stubbs, Votto, Wood, Bailey, Arroyo, Phillips, Volquez and some lesser guys like Janish, Hanigan and Heisey. That is pretty much the core of the team that won the division. IMO, Walt's best acquistion to date was getting Masset for Griffey. He upgraded with Rolen but IMO overpaid to acquire him. He got stiffed when he dumped Dunn and the move added nothing that helps the cause. He made a good signing with Rhodes but merely was exchanging him for a similarly good signing that WK had made with Affeldt. Leake was a good pick. Jury is out on Alonso and Grandal who both may be blocked and harder to convert into something that actually helps the major league team than many want to believe. Chapman will end up being his signature move. Early returns are favorable, we'll see how it works out.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 05:08 PM
The Lincoln move was horrible no questions asked. Post All-Star break in 2008 Lincoln was awful. There was all the sign we needed to not resign him to a ridiculous 2 yr 5 mil contract. Equally as bad as the Stanton contract. At least Cormier was only a 1 year deal.


Cormier was here about 1.5 years. He was a known crappy pitcher.
Maybe Lincoln was already hurt when the Reds' resigned him.. It wouldn't be the first time the medical staff has missed something.. But Lincoln was at least coming off a solid year. Was it ultimately a mistake? Yes. If you tally up the list of such mistakes, Wayne has many more per year.




I am surprised we still have to bring up this trade, it's pretty clear that all players involved bad players. Except maybe Bray. We won the deal in the long term. That team really had no business claiming to be in contention, it was not that good.


Nope, we lost the deal. The deal was made to help 2006. It failed miserably, making thet team worse. Washington got better production out of Felipe and Kearns than we have out of Bray and Maj.. I'm thankful that Bray gave us 28 good innings of middle relief last year and 47 IP in 2008, but he's not that great of a prize.




KGJ had 10 and 5 rights, thus he had to approve a trade. Griffey really didn't want to leave Cincinnati and agreed to approve a trade to the Sox after talking with Ozzie, Kenny Williams, and his family. Masset was nothing more than an average arm who was up and down between AAA and long relief. He blossomed after a move to the bullpen, which could be as much credit to the Reds pitching coaches and scouts and it was Jocketty.


So Bray makes us "Win" the Washington deal, but Masset is only "Blah"
No offense, but you are showing your bias here. The bottom line is that Jocketty moved the "immovable" Jr. He got a setup man (who is better than Bray). That's not a win to you. Yet, trading your young RF and SS for a middle reliever is a win.
As I said.. the GM should get all credit and blame.





What I believe is a big difference between Walt and WK's situation was the Walt inherited an organization that had depth, he could pull in guy after guy into the bullpen if people struggled. WK had to make quick acquisitions, which ultimately was the downfall of WK.


Not correct. Walt inherited something like 13 pending FA.. The definition of a thin team. Plus he inherited bad contracts. WK didn't have to make quick acquisions.. he wanted to. WK made good moves his first year, right (before the season started)? Wasn't the same pressure there? The fact is that after Philips/Arroyo, it was pretty much all downhill.





WK didn't do a bad job for us, he left us in a much better situation than when he came in. Walt took the team WK left and pushed some more buttons to get the wheel spinning.

Exactly, Walt made the right moves. WK made some good moves, but more bad moves than good ones.. that's why the W-L record deteriorated. Cast also got tired of eating all of Wayne's bad contracts.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 05:10 PM
.

And yes, I'd have made the Hamilton/Volquez trade every year. I love how you mention Volquez' PED use without mentioning Hamilton's crack addiction. Volquez was a hammer in 2008 and appears to be poised to return to that level in 2011. The Reds were pitching poor still when that trade was made with Bruce and Stubbs on the horizon and Jr. and Dunn in house.

.

I hope Volquez is good next year, but it's still a crapshoot, IMO.
Most likely, he will great about 20-60% of the time and mediocre to bad the rest of the time. It's hard to say, but he will probably continue to be inconsistent.

Hamilton was the AL MVP.. I don't see how Volquez remotely compares based on his track record. Volquez can't live off of 2008 forever.

Griffey012
12-27-2010, 05:12 PM
In case anyone forgot, it was Jocketty that extended Lincoln.

I was implying that but didn't make it clear. I was trying to compare the fact that both men gave equally awful deals to relievers.

REDREAD
12-27-2010, 05:15 PM
Walt inherited Bruce, Cueto, Stubbs, Votto, Wood, Bailey, Arroyo, Phillips, Volquez and some lesser guys like Janish, Hanigan and Heisey. That is pretty much the core of the team that won the division.

He was also stuck with Harang and Cordero this year, who were like 33% of the payroll. Much worse than poor Wayne getting "stuck" with Jr.

Wayne could not get the job done. The record will always show that. How many people were truly optimistic in the beggining of 2008? Not many.
I seem to remember complaints about Bruce being trapped in AAA, and Votto losing playing time to Hat.

Without Walt's moves, that core you mentioned is a 500 team.

TRF
12-27-2010, 05:42 PM
Exactly, Walt made the right moves. WK made some good moves, but more bad moves than good ones.. that's why the W-L record deteriorated. Cast also got tired of eating all of Wayne's bad contracts.

Your revisionist history is amazing.

Fact: WK had far less to work with than Jocketty. He had to remake the entire system which Wayne has for the most part kept intact.

Fact: WK had no rotation, and nothing really on the horizon. Cueto and Bailey were years away when he took over. Wood was 4 years away.

Fact: while Hamilton was the AL MVP, he won that while missing almost a month. He's a health risk in that there is no comp for a recovering crack addict in baseball.

Fact: WK had MORE to do with fewer assets in place.

Griffey012
12-27-2010, 05:51 PM
Cormier was here about 1.5 years. He was a known crappy pitcher.
Maybe Lincoln was already hurt when the Reds' resigned him.. It wouldn't be the first time the medical staff has missed something.. But Lincoln was at least coming off a solid year. Was it ultimately a mistake? Yes. If you tally up the list of such mistakes, Wayne has many more per year.

I guess you didn't read my entire comment on Lincoln. He had a good first half and a brutal 2nd half, that doesn't constitute a solid year. That is like saying Gomes had a solid year this season when we all know he had a very good May, and was below average the rest of the season, thankfully Walt didn't sign him to a 2 year 4 million dollar extension. The 1 year 1.75 million is just fine.




So Bray makes us "Win" the Washington deal, but Masset is only "Blah"
No offense, but you are showing your bias here. The bottom line is that Jocketty moved the "immovable" Jr. He got a setup man (who is better than Bray). That's not a win to you. Yet, trading your young RF and SS for a middle reliever is a win.
As I said.. the GM should get all credit and blame.

My bias is that I love having Walt as our GM and stand behind his every move, as witnessed by my posts in the "Are the Reds going to do anything to help improve this team in the off-season" thread. You failed to address the fact that JR had 10 and 5 rights and had to approve any trade. I want to know your opinion on how Wayne could move Griffey if Griffey didn't approve the trade? It is well known Junior was apprehensive to move away from his family in Cincy, and thus it is almost a given he was immovable until the trade deadline under the final year of his deal. Walt never had the opportunity to move JR in that situation.

I am not trying to claim Masset is "blah" he was a great pickup, but treating the JR trade under the aspect of "Walt traded immovable washed up Griffey for a great set-up guy" is false. That is the same as saying that Wayne traded Jeff Stevens for an all-star second baseman. Both guys traded for players who had little roles on their respective teams and have blossomed into great players for the Reds. Both moves have been fantastic, there is no doubt about it.

I am not trying to pick a side and claim that WK was a great GM, because he was not, but a lot of the critiques against him in this thread are false and unfair.

REDREAD
12-28-2010, 04:32 PM
IMy bias is that I love having Walt as our GM and stand behind his every move, as witnessed by my posts in the "Are the Reds going to do anything to help improve this team in the off-season" thread. You failed to address the fact that JR had 10 and 5 rights and had to approve any trade. I want to know your opinion on how Wayne could move Griffey if Griffey didn't approve the trade?


Players with no trade deals get traded all the time. Jr approved the trade when Walt made it. I am assuming Jr was not that thrilled to be in Cincy. The honeymoon wore off pretty quick. I can not read his mind, but I'm sure he thought he was conned by Lindner/Allen and would've jumped at the chance to leave Cincy after 2000 or 2001, when it was apparent that he made a tremendous financial sacrifice and ownership broke their promise to build a winner.
Of all the people with no trade clauses in baseball, I think Jr would've been very amiable to accepting. The proof is that he seemed to have no problem going to the White Sox when Walt dealt him there.. So, how do you know he wouldn't approve a deal?





It is well known Junior was apprehensive to move away from his family in Cincy, and thus it is almost a given he was immovable until the trade deadline under the final year of his deal. Walt never had the opportunity to move JR in that situation.


Nope. His family lives in Florida, not Cincy. A lot changed since 1999. I am pretty sure Jr said publicly that he'd be open to a trade.




I am not trying to claim Masset is "blah" he was a great pickup,


ok, if I misunderstood, I apologize, but it seemed like the conversation was framed that Bray was a better pickup than Masset.. Again, I did not mean to misinterpret that.




I am not trying to pick a side and claim that WK was a great GM, because he was not, but a lot of the critiques against him in this thread are false and unfair.

Wayne was mediocre as a GM. Phillips was a great pickup. Arroyo was too.
Hamilton was great, but then he made the mistake of giving him away for 20 cents on the dollar. Then there's a long list of mistakes he made.

IMO, he is overrated here, based on a few dumpster dive pickups and Arroyo.
His entire body of work is not that great. He was horrible at contracts, risk management, and never knew when to cut bait on a player. He also overvalued pitching at the expense of position players. He also undervalued defense. His clubs were some of the worst defensive clubs the Reds have had in my lifetime (which negated his efforts to improve the pitching staff).

REDREAD
12-28-2010, 04:44 PM
Your revisionist history is amazing.
Fact: WK had MORE to do with fewer assets in place.

Let's look at facts. Run differential

2005 (basically the team Wayne inherited)
RS 820 (1st in the league)
RA 889
Differential .. -69

2006
RS 749
RA 725
Differential... +24
Wayne did good job this year

2007
RS 783
RA 853
Differential... -70
Wayne regressed to the level of the team he inherited

2008 (largely Wayne's roster, which Walt inherited)
RS 704
RA 800
Differential .. -96
Getting worse

So Walt inherited a team with a worst run differential. Walt also inherited a team which had its two middle of the order hitters (Dunn and Jr) as pending FAs. A pretty big problem to inherit. Sure, there was talent in the minors, but the 2008 team had a lot of holes to fill. IMO, run differential seems to support that Walt inherited a worse team. I agree with other posters that Wayne added pitching, but look at the Run Scored numbers.. He clearly decimated the offense, while the defense got horrible too.

Griffey012
12-28-2010, 05:05 PM
Players with no trade deals get traded all the time. Jr approved the trade when Walt made it. I am assuming Jr was not that thrilled to be in Cincy. The honeymoon wore off pretty quick. I can not read his mind, but I'm sure he thought he was conned by Lindner/Allen and would've jumped at the chance to leave Cincy after 2000 or 2001, when it was apparent that he made a tremendous financial sacrifice and ownership broke their promise to build a winner.
Of all the people with no trade clauses in baseball, I think Jr would've been very amiable to accepting. The proof is that he seemed to have no problem going to the White Sox when Walt dealt him there.. So, how do you know he wouldn't approve a deal?

The White Sox tried to acquire Griffey in 2005 but the deal was nixed by Carl Lindner because they wanted the Reds to foot 60% of the remaining tab. Griffey probably brought close to that much in because of ticket sales himself, it likely didnt make financial sense to pay that much of his contract. In 2006 he plays 109 games due to various injuries, making him a pretty untradeable piece at 15 million a year. In 2007 he bounces back and has a strong year, Wayne may have been able to trade him at the '07 deadline or the off-season in 08 if the Reds picked up a strong portion of the bill.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3512365

Here are some quotes regarding the Griffey deal you may want to look into:

"Reds general manager Walt Jocketty was surprised when the White Sox approached him on Wednesday about Griffey, who was also caught off-guard by the trade offer." --- This tells me WJ was not looking to trade JR, but a trade came to him by another team

"I think he was just a little bit surprised, maybe, but I think he thought about it and said he wanted to talk to his family about it," Jocketty said. "I think he agreed it's a very good opportunity for him, and the club obviously wanted him and pursued him and came after him. That's got to be a good feeling for him, I guess." --- Griffey talked it over with his family, and also one big thing about Griffey was he was always jealous of his father's championship rings. He would have only accepted a trade to a contender, and most all the contenders were not looking to take on a risk like Griffey in the off-season.

Griffey grew up in Cincy, and was always beside the BRM, he wanted nothing more than to win and Cincinnati, and if he really disliked it as much as you say, he would have demanded a trade behind the scenes and found his way out sooner. Even when offered the idea of leaving, he still talked with his family, with Kenny Williams, and Ozzie Guillen before accepting the trade. And he was hesitant because he wasn't sure he could still play CF.

Great deal for Walt, sure was, but it was hardly some kind of wonder act. You are right about the fact his family lives in Florida, I should have known that.

Griffey012
12-28-2010, 05:16 PM
Let's look at facts. Run differential

2005 (basically the team Wayne inherited)
RS 820 (1st in the league)
RA 889
Differential .. -69

2006
RS 749
RA 725
Differential... +24
Wayne did good job this year

2007
RS 783
RA 853
Differential... -70
Wayne regressed to the level of the team he inherited

2008 (largely Wayne's roster, which Walt inherited)
RS 704
RA 800
Differential .. -96
Getting worse

So Walt inherited a team with a worst run differential. Walt also inherited a team which had its two middle of the order hitters (Dunn and Jr) as pending FAs. A pretty big problem to inherit. Sure, there was talent in the minors, but the 2008 team had a lot of holes to fill. IMO, run differential seems to support that Walt inherited a worse team. I agree with other posters that Wayne added pitching, but look at the Run Scored numbers.. He clearly decimated the offense, while the defense got horrible too.

The 2005 team consisted of a lot of career years (LaRue, FeLo, Randa for 90 games, and Griffey's last hurrah) so it is not fair to use that as the baseline for Wayne's demise. But the difference between 2007 and 2008 is the prime example of Wayne's failures. We gave up less runs (acquired pitching) at the expense of a lot of offense. We go from an 800+ OPSing David Ross to Paul Bako playing in 99 games (hardly replacement level), AGon gets injured and we have a SS OPSing .657 and playing poor defense, and lastly Josh Hamilton gets replaced with Corey Patterson. Even if Patterson was not Wayne's move, he was the one who traded away Hamilton without a replacement in house.

Mario-Rijo
12-28-2010, 06:43 PM
While I appreciate the effort Cam has put in here and suspect this exercise has/will have some value in some way I don't believe that this is the best indicator of the success of each GM, especially not at this juncture. Organizational progress can't be measured strictly in major league production.

Here are the undebatable facts IMO.

Fact: Wayne traded for talent on the cheap to create a major league and organizational structure. He managed this despite not having much in the way of tradeable assets. He got something for nothing time after time.

Fact: Wayne Krivsky didn't have the complete unwavering trust of his owner, this was something that had to be earned. Time ran out on doing so. Walt had this from the get go.

Fact: Walt had a much more progressed organization to start with than did Wayne. Major League W/L's and R/S-R/A or statistics in general have little bearing on that. If one can't see this with just a glance of the organizational rosters they are lying to themselves and/or the rest of us.

Fact: You can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.

Wayne Krivsky was bound to make mistakes but he had the most important skill a GM can have and that is talent evaluation skills. Had he been given the opportunity to learn from his mistakes I'm sure he would have been a very good GM at some point. IMO his handful of deals he got right, he got so right that it accelerated the re-birth of our beloved Reds and it's to early to say he got any trades wrong from my point of view (Even though I'm on record as saying I didn't like the Hamilton deal at the time and am liking less and less as time goes on).

The contracts he took on that didn't pan out I frankly don't care about, the major league product wasn't gonna win anyhow whether they panned out or not and it's not like if he hadn't spent that money it would have been guaranteed to rollover to the next year or go into any other aspect any less risky. It's only a positive move if it ends up positive. So maybe you save money from signing Mike Stanton but if the result is Juan Duran at least you got some major league innings that didn't kill some youngster not ready to fill that role. If you get Yorman well then great but there is no guarantee you will (just examples because clearly it's too soon to make a judgement on either of the kids).

Bottom line I may one day be happy Wayne was fired if for no other reason than Walt couldn't be the GM with him still occupying the position. But frankly I doubt that ever happens because so far all Walt has shown is the willingness to do what he has always done and that is add expensive well established vets on the downside of their careers and that isn't a recipe for prolonged success.

edabbs44
12-28-2010, 09:27 PM
While I appreciate the effort Cam has put in here and suspect this exercise has/will have some value in some way I don't believe that this is the best indicator of the success of each GM, especially not at this juncture. Organizational progress can't be measured strictly in major league production.

Here are the undebatable facts IMO.

Fact: Wayne traded for talent on the cheap to create a major league and organizational structure. He managed this despite not having much in the way of tradeable assets. He got something for nothing time after time.

Fact: Wayne Krivsky didn't have the complete unwavering trust of his owner, this was something that had to be earned. Time ran out on doing so. Walt had this from the get go.

Fact: Walt had a much more progressed organization to start with than did Wayne. Major League W/L's and R/S-R/A or statistics in general have little bearing on that. If one can't see this with just a glance of the organizational rosters they are lying to themselves and/or the rest of us.

Fact: You can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.

Wayne Krivsky was bound to make mistakes but he had the most important skill a GM can have and that is talent evaluation skills. Had he been given the opportunity to learn from his mistakes I'm sure he would have been a very good GM at some point. IMO his handful of deals he got right, he got so right that it accelerated the re-birth of our beloved Reds and it's to early to say he got any trades wrong from my point of view (Even though I'm on record as saying I didn't like the Hamilton deal at the time and am liking less and less as time goes on).

The contracts he took on that didn't pan out I frankly don't care about, the major league product wasn't gonna win anyhow whether they panned out or not and it's not like if he hadn't spent that money it would have been guaranteed to rollover to the next year or go into any other aspect any less risky. It's only a positive move if it ends up positive. So maybe you save money from signing Mike Stanton but if the result is Juan Duran at least you got some major league innings that didn't kill some youngster not ready to fill that role. If you get Yorman well then great but there is no guarantee you will (just examples because clearly it's too soon to make a judgement on either of the kids).

Bottom line I may one day be happy Wayne was fired if for no other reason than Walt couldn't be the GM with him still occupying the position. But frankly I doubt that ever happens because so far all Walt has shown is the willingness to do what he has always done and that is add expensive well established vets on the downside of their careers and that isn't a recipe for prolonged success.

Disagree with most of this, but I would like to ask you to expand on a few of your points:

1) You say that WK got something for nothing "time after time". Do you really believe that? Which transactions are you referencing? I didn't really see this trait showing up as much as his tenure got longer.

2) Where did you see WK's talent evaluation skills really come into play? His two biggest wins were taking on failed former top 5 prospects. Was talent evaluation really a part of taking a chance on a guy like Hamilton or Phillips? Did you see a trait that would have likely been able to be repeated as time went on?

3) You didn't care about the contracts that WK took on that didn't pan out? And the major league product wasn't going to pan out anyway? FYI...Harang and Cordero accounted for 33% of the 2010 payroll. Cordero is still on the books for $12MM in 2011.

4) All Walt has done is add expensive vets? Who is expensive? Thinking about it, hasn't he only added one guy who was over $3MM per year? What is your definition of expensive?

I think you are pretty off-base on this one. Surprising.

REDREAD
12-29-2010, 10:48 AM
The White Sox tried to acquire Griffey in 2005 but the deal was nixed by Carl Lindner because they wanted the Reds to foot 60% of the remaining tab. Griffey probably brought close to that much in because of ticket sales himself, it likely didnt make financial sense to pay that much of his contract. In 2006 he plays 109 games due to various injuries, making him a pretty untradeable piece at 15 million a year. In 2007 he bounces back and has a strong year, Wayne may have been able to trade him at the '07 deadline or the off-season in 08 if the Reds picked up a strong portion of the bill.


Well, if Jr was bringing in so much money that Carl didn't want to trade him, he's not exactly an albotross.
IMO, comparing Jr and Cordero is too completely different animals.
Jr was a poor defender at the end of his career, but other than 2002, he gave us solid offensive production. Not always elete production, but solid.
The fact that the White Sox wanted him (as you posted) proves that Jr was tradable. If Jr was generating a lot of ticket sales, then he was not a financial burden.

In contrast, the Cordero that Walt inherited is an overpaid mediocre middle reliever, that doesn't help draw any fans.

The whole point is that people used Jr as an excuse for Wayne's poor W-L record. Jr earned his money and then some. He was not the superstar we hoped for, but he earned his money.. Walt was saddled with Harang and Cordero (in addition to smaller albotrosses like Freel).. Walt had the disadvantage, by far.. Although IIIRC, Wayne did inherit one year of Milton.



"Reds general manager Walt Jocketty was surprised when the White Sox approached him on Wednesday about Griffey, who was also caught off-guard by the trade offer." --- This tells me WJ was not looking to trade JR, but a trade came to him by another team


If you are trying to imply that Walt was just sitting on his hands and the trade fell into his lap, that's very unfair to Walt. Both Walt and Wayne worked very hard at their jobs, beating the bushes to try to improve the team constantly. It doesn't matter who initiated the talks. In the end, Walt got value for Jr, and got ownership to agree to the trade, something that was supposedly impossible for other GMs.

REDREAD
12-29-2010, 10:54 AM
. But the difference between 2007 and 2008 is the prime example of Wayne's failures. We gave up less runs (acquired pitching) at the expense of a lot of offense. We go from an 800+ OPSing David Ross to Paul Bako playing in 99 games (hardly replacement level), AGon gets injured and we have a SS OPSing .657 and playing poor defense, and lastly Josh Hamilton gets replaced with Corey Patterson. Even if Patterson was not Wayne's move, he was the one who traded away Hamilton without a replacement in house.

This is the exact point I was trying to make. I'm not saying that Wayne was an idiot, it's just he didn't seem to grasp the point of assembling a team.
He didn't realize that no matter how good your starting pitching is, if the defense is horrible and you have 3-4 position players hitting well below average, the team is going to struggle to reach .500

Because of this weakness, I doubt he ever gets another chance to GM again.

REDREAD
12-29-2010, 11:05 AM
Bottom line I may one day be happy Wayne was fired if for no other reason than Walt couldn't be the GM with him still occupying the position. But frankly I doubt that ever happens because so far all Walt has shown is the willingness to do what he has always done and that is add expensive well established vets on the downside of their careers and that isn't a recipe for prolonged success.

Well, if Arroyo, Hamilton and Phillips prove that Wayne has talent evaluation skills, I offer this counter point.

Walt stole Wainwright from the Braves for JD Drew, an expensive vet with 1 or 2 years left on his contract.

Walt's organization got Leake in the draft. I'm not saying Leake will be an ace, but to have a #1 pick immediately contribute, even as a middle of the rotation starter is a major talent evaluation skill.

Walt showed trust/patience in Votto, Bruce, and Stubbs that few other managers have. In contrast, Wayne felt that he had to have Hat to transition to Votto. Wayne also wanted to keep Bruce in the minor leagues.

So there's 3 examples of Walt and his team having outstanding talent evaluation skills with young players.

In St Louis, they were fortunate enough to have the resources to constantly be in "win now" mode. If you can trade mediocre young players for Edmounds, Rolen , Larry Walker, etc.. why not do it if you are in the pennant race? I am trying to think if any of those players came back to bite them.. I guess Haren did, and I think they traded a young infielder (Kennedy?) that was a starter. But overall, they overwhelming won those trades. StL has been smart enough to keep the "keepers" from their farm as well.

But in all honesty, if we can be a contender for 8 years by trading prospects for declining Vets, I'm all for that..

camisadelgolf
12-29-2010, 11:19 AM
Well, if Jr was bringing in so much money that Carl didn't want to trade him, he's not exactly an albotross.
IMO, comparing Jr and Cordero is too completely different animals.
Jr was a poor defender at the end of his career, but other than 2002, he gave us solid offensive production. Not always elete production, but solid.
The fact that the White Sox wanted him (as you posted) proves that Jr was tradable. If Jr was generating a lot of ticket sales, then he was not a financial burden.

In contrast, the Cordero that Walt inherited is an overpaid mediocre middle reliever, that doesn't help draw any fans.

The whole point is that people used Jr as an excuse for Wayne's poor W-L record. Jr earned his money and then some. He was not the superstar we hoped for, but he earned his money.. Walt was saddled with Harang and Cordero (in addition to smaller albotrosses like Freel).. Walt had the disadvantage, by far.. Although IIIRC, Wayne did inherit one year of Milton.



If you are trying to imply that Walt was just sitting on his hands and the trade fell into his lap, that's very unfair to Walt. Both Walt and Wayne worked very hard at their jobs, beating the bushes to try to improve the team constantly. It doesn't matter who initiated the talks. In the end, Walt got value for Jr, and got ownership to agree to the trade, something that was supposedly impossible for other GMs.
Griffey's defense was so bad when Krivsky got him that he had negative value on the field. I doubt that a ton of people were spending a lot of money to see Griffey at that point in his career. He was an albatross in that he cost a lot of money and couldn't be moved due to his no-trade rights. It wasn't until he saw a chance to go to the playoffs in a city not so far away that he allowed the Reds to trade him for two people who were seen as role players at the time.

Also, Junior ($19.0MM) and Milton ($20.2MM) weren't the only albatrosses of contracts that Krivsky inherited. Don't forget Jason LaRue ($5.2MM), Dave Williams ($1.4MM), Chris Hammond ($1.0MM), and Tony Womack ($2.0MM). We're talking about ~$50MM of dead weight spread out over two years. (I didn't include Griffey's 2008 salary and buyout that Krivsky would've been on the hook for had he not been let go.) That's a drop in the bucket compared to what has been holding back Jocketty.

Mario-Rijo
12-29-2010, 12:46 PM
Disagree with most of this, but I would like to ask you to expand on a few of your points:

1) You say that WK got something for nothing "time after time". Do you really believe that? Which transactions are you referencing? I didn't really see this trait showing up as much as his tenure got longer.

Of course I believe that, nearly all of them. As his tenure got longer? So you agree then, so why am I detailing deals? Look the shorter list is when he didn't get something in return for nothing. Cody Ross to Fla., Hamilton to Texas & "The Trade". None of those deals hurt our then present or future bottom line with the possible (and probably likely) exception of Hamilton which I have already conceded.


2) Where did you see WK's talent evaluation skills really come into play? His two biggest wins were taking on failed former top 5 prospects. Was talent evaluation really a part of taking a chance on a guy like Hamilton or Phillips? Did you see a trait that would have likely been able to be repeated as time went on?

Well the next time Walt does this very thing it'll be the 1st, so apparently it isn't as easy as it looks. Wayne deals often for guys who have yet to blossom that takes some evaluation skills, pedigree is a part of the equation but a small one, plenty of top prospects don't pan out.


3) You didn't care about the contracts that WK took on that didn't pan out? And the major league product wasn't going to pan out anyway? FYI...Harang and Cordero accounted for 33% of the 2010 payroll. Cordero is still on the books for $12MM in 2011.


Fair enough but I didn't have a problem with either of the signings when they happened and I'm not gonna start now. Harang signed a decent contract for what most expected of him at the time, not many complained about this deal. And while some didn't like the Cordero deal and they obviously overpayed to get him I'll never have a problem with spending money to add good, productive players. My only issue initially with it was would he be productive or a flop, well up until last year he was great. BTW noticed you didn't add Arroyo to your list.


4) All Walt has done is add expensive vets? Who is expensive? Thinking about it, hasn't he only added one guy who was over $3MM per year? What is your definition of expensive?

I think you are pretty off-base on this one. Surprising.

Rolen was expensive and looking at the likelihood of his present deal being expensive relative to what we are likely to get is the same. You constantly harp on Wayne making poor use of his funds, this is a deal right up your proverbial alley. Walt didn't have to extend Rolen to get the benefit he received from acquiring him. He just extended Arroyo and I disagree with that deal as well it's in essence adding a vet (likely on the downside) who he thinks he can expect continued similiar production and I doubt it.

Bottom line we will have only so much in the way of funds going forward Walt can't rely on trading for aging vets like he did in St. Louis so he needs to adapt to a new style, one of taking advantage of every resource possible.

Mario-Rijo
12-29-2010, 01:04 PM
Well, if Arroyo, Hamilton and Phillips prove that Wayne has talent evaluation skills, I offer this counter point.

Walt stole Wainwright from the Braves for JD Drew, an expensive vet with 1 or 2 years left on his contract.

Walt's organization got Leake in the draft. I'm not saying Leake will be an ace, but to have a #1 pick immediately contribute, even as a middle of the rotation starter is a major talent evaluation skill.

Walt showed trust/patience in Votto, Bruce, and Stubbs that few other managers have. In contrast, Wayne felt that he had to have Hat to transition to Votto. Wayne also wanted to keep Bruce in the minor leagues.

So there's 3 examples of Walt and his team having outstanding talent evaluation skills with young players.

In St Louis, they were fortunate enough to have the resources to constantly be in "win now" mode. If you can trade mediocre young players for Edmounds, Rolen , Larry Walker, etc.. why not do it if you are in the pennant race? I am trying to think if any of those players came back to bite them.. I guess Haren did, and I think they traded a young infielder (Kennedy?) that was a starter. But overall, they overwhelming won those trades. StL has been smart enough to keep the "keepers" from their farm as well.

But in all honesty, if we can be a contender for 8 years by trading prospects for declining Vets, I'm all for that..

J.D. Drew? Ok not sure what he has in common with Jeff Stevens, Wily Mo Pena, Bobby Basham, Ben Kozlowski, etc... As far as your other examples I don't really think they apply. You may have to expound on those not sure what you are trying to say.

We can't afford to continually add Edmonds, Walkers, Rolens etc. so Walt needs to adapt and start dealing away guys before they wither on the vine, adding solid cheaper players who don't have a long track record of success but might in the future. As far as him not trading much away well not sure he had much to trade away in the 1st place and he clearly takes his sweet time making deals which limits the opportunities he has to screw something up, combine those 2 things and you might have a better understanding as to why he didn't have more losses.

Scrap Irony
12-29-2010, 01:43 PM
J.D. Drew? Ok not sure what he has in common with Jeff Stevens, Wily Mo Pena, Bobby Basham, Ben Kozlowski, etc... As far as your other examples I don't really think they apply. You may have to expound on those not sure what you are trying to say.

We can't afford to continually add Edmonds, Walkers, Rolens etc. so Walt needs to adapt and start dealing away guys before they wither on the vine, adding solid cheaper players who don't have a long track record of success but might in the future. As far as him not trading much away well not sure he had much to trade away in the 1st place and he clearly takes his sweet time making deals which limits the opportunities he has to screw something up, combine those 2 things and you might have a better understanding as to why he didn't have more losses.

So Jocketty isn't a good GM because "he takes his sweet time" to make trades that aren't considered "losses"? :rolleyes:

Wow.

Maybe Trader Frank Lane can come back?

As to adding the Walkers and Edmonds and McGuires, I'll just agree to disagree with you, while I point to Rolen, Cairo, Cabrera, Hernandez, Rhodes, and the NL Central title.

In today's salary climate, you can find fairly cheap, older players as both free agents and as trade targets. Hernandez cost Ryan Freel. Rhodes cost a couple million. Cabrera was about the same. Rolen cost a decent prospect, but made a monster impact.

Without any of these guys, the Reds don't win the division.

westofyou
12-29-2010, 01:47 PM
Maybe Trader Frank Lane can come back?


Bite your tongue.

I just traded hamburger for a steak.

Frank Lane (after he dealt Colavito for Kell)

Mario-Rijo
12-29-2010, 01:54 PM
So Jocketty isn't a good GM because "he takes his sweet time" to make trades that aren't considered "losses"? :rolleyes:

Wow.

Maybe Trader Frank Lane can come back?

As to adding the Walkers and Edmonds and McGuires, I'll just agree to disagree with you, while I point to Rolen, Cairo, Cabrera, Hernandez, Rhodes, and the NL Central title.

In today's salary climate, you can find fairly cheap, older players as both free agents and as trade targets. Hernandez cost Ryan Freel. Rhodes cost a couple million. Cabrera was about the same. Rolen cost a decent prospect, but made a monster impact.

Without any of these guys, the Reds don't win the division.

Who said he wasn't a good GM? Way to pick apart something and make what you want out of it.

Where are those additions this offseason? When you don't take advantage of finding Arroyo's, Phillips and the like you run out of money with holes left in your team. Not only that then you have to rely on those guys to remain healthy and productive to get where your going, it worked one year let's see if it continues.

Rojo
12-29-2010, 02:16 PM
The best trade between the two of them was Krivsky's -- Pena for Arroyo. Over 200 innings of better than league average for five straight years.

Wayne also conjured a TOR starter and GG, power-and-speed middle infielder out of the ether.

Cueto, Bailey, Votto and Bruce were kept. Stubbs was added. And Eric Bedard was avoided.

The Kearns trade didn't work out, neither did the Dunn trade.

Walt brought in Hernandez. Ok. But David Ross has OPS+'ed in the 130's the last two seasons.


I'm not saying that Wayne was an idiot, it's just he didn't seem to grasp the point of assembling a team.

That's backwards. Wayne lost his share of deals but the direction was right. The team was going slow-slugger with a new ballpark built for that game. Wayne added pitching and up-the-middle guys

edabbs44
12-29-2010, 02:53 PM
Wayne also conjured a TOR starter.

Wayne conjured up a guy who looked like a TOR starter for 3 months. He then resembled a MOR starter for the 4 months after.

edabbs44
12-29-2010, 02:54 PM
Who said he wasn't a good GM? Way to pick apart something and make what you want out of it.

Where are those additions this offseason? When you don't take advantage of finding Arroyo's, Phillips and the like you run out of money with holes left in your team. Not only that then you have to rely on those guys to remain healthy and productive to get where your going, it worked one year let's see if it continues.

Where is this team so weak that they have to do anything?

Rojo
12-29-2010, 02:59 PM
Wayne conjured up a guy who looked like a TOR starter for 3 months. He then resembled a MOR starter for the 4 months after.

We should conjure that up so often.

edabbs44
12-29-2010, 03:25 PM
We should conjure that up so often.

Walt conjured up a division title. We can quibble over how much credit to give to every employee who has worked for Cincinnati since 1995, but the fact is that he was at the helm for 2+ years before that title happened. So he could have steered that team in a number of different directions. The fact that he managed the roster to the point of a division title is cool by me.

TRF
12-29-2010, 03:32 PM
Walt conjured up a division title. We can quibble over how much credit to give to every employee who has worked for Cincinnati since 1995, but the fact is that he was at the helm for 2+ years before that title happened. So he could have steered that team in a number of different directions. The fact that he managed the roster to the point of a division title is cool by me.

That's an interesting thought, so i'll put this one forward. Had Jocketty been hired in Feb. 2006, would he have been fired 3 weeks into 2008? would he have won the division that year? would it still have taken 2 more years? Would he in his history of trades acquired Phillips or Ross? Arroyo? How about the flyer on Hamilton?

No one is saying Jocketty is a bad GM, but what in his history suggests he would have done better in 2006 to set the Reds up for 2010?

Scrap Irony
12-29-2010, 03:35 PM
Who said he wasn't a good GM? Way to pick apart something and make what you want out of it.

You've certainy intimated that he's been lucky, that he's had millions to play with, and that he's relied too heavily on veterans and in-season acquisitions in order to win. I picked apart nothing.



Where are those additions this offseason? When you don't take advantage of finding Arroyo's, Phillips and the like you run out of money with holes left in your team.

Boy, Julia, I thought you said you could cook! But that cake you're assembling to bake is way too dry. And besides that, all it only has flour and sugar in it!

I know it won't need to be ready for another four hours, but it tastes like crap!



Not only that then you have to rely on those guys to remain healthy and productive to get where your going, it worked one year let's see if it continues.

If you can name another team that doesn't rely on its better players to stay healthy so that it can compete, I'll admit your point at valid. Got one?

And, finally, you're right about one thing-- for one year, it worked. For the first time in 15 years, it worked. Why not trust that the guy who did that (and who won seven more titles in those 15 years at another stop) to plug the holes? Why not wait and see? If the team isn't "fixed" to your specifications at the beginning of the year, then perhaps you'll have a point. Until then, however, it's so much howling at the moon.

edabbs44
12-29-2010, 04:09 PM
That's an interesting thought, so i'll put this one forward. Had Jocketty been hired in Feb. 2006, would he have been fired 3 weeks into 2008? would he have won the division that year? would it still have taken 2 more years? Would he in his history of trades acquired Phillips or Ross? Arroyo? How about the flyer on Hamilton?

No one is saying Jocketty is a bad GM, but what in his history suggests he would have done better in 2006 to set the Reds up for 2010?

I have no idea what he would or wouldn't have done.

But when you look at the roster from 2010, would you say that Wayne's acquisitions were the keys to the season? Phillips, Arroyo, Volquez, Cordero, Harang's extension, Stubbs, Heisey, Bray. Unsure if I forgot anyone. I guess my point is that, while Wayne did infuse some talent into the system, I'm not sure that we can say that any of those transactions were so critical to the 2010 performance of this team. Like that we couldn't live without, like a Votto or Rolen.

So if you were to hand that 2006 roster over to Walt, remove those players, add somewhere in the neighborhood of $45MM of payroll flexibility to 2010 and give him 4 years to fill in the blanks...it's probably doable, if not likely. But fairly difficult to say.

westofyou
12-29-2010, 04:15 PM
YouTube - Ferris Bueller s Day Off After Credits Scene (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-Sgvq98mjc&feature=related)

Ron Madden
12-29-2010, 04:17 PM
Maybe it's just me but I believe this thread has jumped the shark.

Griffey012
12-29-2010, 04:30 PM
Maybe it's just me but I believe this thread has jumped the shark.

I think it's due to there not being a whole lot else to talk about this off-season.

Scrap Irony
12-29-2010, 04:36 PM
That's an interesting thought, so i'll put this one forward. Had Jocketty been hired in Feb. 2006, would he have been fired 3 weeks into 2008? would he have won the division that year? would it still have taken 2 more years? Would he in his history of trades acquired Phillips or Ross? Arroyo? How about the flyer on Hamilton?

No one is saying Jocketty is a bad GM, but what in his history suggests he would have done better in 2006 to set the Reds up for 2010?

$45 million, the players in the system, and the players at the major league level? My supposition is that he'd do better than Krivsky did.

But we'll never know.

REDREAD
12-29-2010, 05:00 PM
Griffey's defense was so bad when Krivsky got him that he had negative value on the field. I doubt that a ton of people were spending a lot of money to see Griffey at that point in his career.


Ok, I'm confused. You said that Wayne could not trade Jr because he was selling tickets. Now you are saying he wasn't selling tickets.

Jr's contract had a fair market value of about 9 million/year, when you count deferals in. That comes directly from the mouth of John Allen.
Contrast that to the money Harang and Cordero made last year.
Harang (12.5 million), Cordero (12.1 million).. Although in Cordero's defense he was not totally useless.. he was about equivalent to a mediocre middle reliever. Even with all his injuries, Jr still averaged an 876 OPS as a Red.
That's pretty darn good. People tend to forget that. He was a legit middle of the order bat.

IMO, there's no comparison.. in terms of bad contracts inherited.. especially if you add Freel to the mix. '

Wayne.. 1 year of Milton.. 3 years of Jr

Walt.. 2 years Freel.. 2 years Cordero.. 1 year Harang.. plus the cleanup of a lot of deadweight when he first arrived (Stanton, Hat, Castro, Patterson) which severely limited his ablity to make moves when he arrived. Yes, Stanton was released before Walt arrived, but that still ate up part of the budget.



He was an albatross in that he cost a lot of money and couldn't be moved due to his no-trade rights. It wasn't until he saw a chance to go to the playoffs in a city not so far away that he allowed the Reds to trade him for two people who were seen as role players at the time.


I guess we are going to just have to disagree. I think the fact that Walt actually traded Jr means that Wayne could have. Wayne could've easily done it prior to the 2008 season.. Jr was still hitting. There was still interest. It's a lot easier to trade a guy that can still hit but can't play defense than it is to trade someone like Harang or Cordero, who are vastly overpaid and produce little..




Also, Junior ($19.0MM) and Milton ($20.2MM) weren't the only albatrosses of contracts that Krivsky inherited. Don't forget Jason LaRue ($5.2MM), Dave Williams ($1.4MM), Chris Hammond ($1.0MM), and Tony Womack ($2.0MM).

I will give you LaRue, I had forgetten that one.
Hammond and Womack were just one year contracts.. combined they made about what Patterson did. If we count all the one year contracts, Walt had far more bad players (see list above).




We're talking about ~$50MM of dead weight spread out over two years. (I didn't include Griffey's 2008 salary and buyout that Krivsky would've been on the hook for had he not been let go.) That's a drop in the bucket compared to what has been holding back Jocketty.

Again, Jr OPSed 876 as a Red, he was a legit middle order of the bat.
Now granted, his best years were not under Wayne

2006 > 802 OPS
2007 > 869
2008 > 778

Still, Wayne had the White Sox interested supposedly, but could not get it done. Walt traded Jr within a month or two of coming to Cincy. Wayne could not get it done in almost 3 years.. To me, that's further proof that Walt is a better GM.

Honestly, I think Wayne wanted Jr on the team. Wayne has a pattern of not valuing defense.. that's why he kept Dunn around, Keppinger at SS, EdE at 3b, Jerry Harriston playing CF and middle infield, etc.

Jr was overpaid for his production under the Wayne era, but not near the albotross that Cordero is. Wayne didn't seem that concerned about it, as he took no action.

REDREAD
12-29-2010, 05:04 PM
J.D. Drew? Ok not sure what he has in common with Jeff Stevens, Wily Mo Pena, Bobby Basham, Ben Kozlowski, etc... As far as your other examples I don't really think they apply. You may have to expound on those not sure what you are trying to say.


Examples that Walt does more than pick up expensive veterans on the tail of their careers.
If three good moves can prove that Wayne was a master talent evaluator (despite more than 3 moves that failed miserably), then 3 examples should be sufficent to prove that Walt can bring in young talent.



We can't afford to continually add Edmonds, Walkers, Rolens etc. so Walt needs to adapt and start dealing away guys before they wither on the vine, adding solid cheaper players who don't have a long track record of success but might in the future.

Isn't that what he's doing with Leake and Chapman? What about trading Dunn and using the money saved to sign reach draft picks? What about all the Latin players he's signed? I agree that Wayne and DanO did a good job with the farm, but if anything, Walt has been more aggressive. We will see in a few years what the results are.

kaldaniels
12-29-2010, 05:07 PM
Maybe it's just me but I believe this thread has jumped the shark.

Can we at least re-name it...Jocketty vs. Krivsky: Cage Match :dunno:

REDREAD
12-29-2010, 05:09 PM
That's backwards. Wayne lost his share of deals but the direction was right. The team was going slow-slugger with a new ballpark built for that game. Wayne added pitching and up-the-middle guys

I disagree. Wayne kept Jr and Dunn in the OF, while dealing Hamilton.
Wayne gave Jerry Harriston Jr and Keppinger a lot of time at SS.
Wayne kept EdE at 3b.

Phillips and Hamilton were the only above average defensive players (other than Patterson) that got significant playing time that I remember under Wayne's rule.

There was a steady decline in runs scored under Wayne. Sure, the pitching improved, but in the end run differential (other than 2006) didn't improve.
Seems like he missed the big picture. Isn't the whole point of improving pitching to improve the run differential?

REDREAD
12-29-2010, 05:12 PM
That's an interesting thought, so i'll put this one forward. Had Jocketty been hired in Feb. 2006, would he have been fired 3 weeks into 2008?

It's hard to say, but I bet the team would've showed steady improvement from 2006-2008, instead of just spinning its wheels as it did.

I bet we win the division in 2006 (or at least came much closer) if Walt was here and he was given as much money to work with as Wayne did. Walt would've gotten real help.

Rojo
12-29-2010, 05:54 PM
Wayne gave Jerry Harriston Jr and Keppinger a lot of time at SS.

Like Wayne was calling that. He brought in the OK AGon for short.



Wayne kept Jr and Dunn in the OF, while dealing Hamilton.

Jr and Dunn wasn't going to net you a Volquez. Combined, Walt could only get Masset for the both of them. That's not a case of valuing offense over defense, it's valuing pitching over everything else.


Wayne kept EdE at 3b.

Ah, ok, he didn't pick up a replacement. Bare in mind that when Krivsky was fired EdE was still 24 and many of us were hoping his glove would gel. It wouldn't.

Krivsky came from the Twins, an organization that almost fetisihizes defense. That Krivsky didn't value it is bunk.

mth123
12-29-2010, 06:24 PM
Some points that need to be considered:

1. When Walt traded Jr and Dunn, they had about 2 months left on their contracts. Does anyone honestly believe that Jr. Could have been traded in the season's prior when he was owed tens of Millions more? Saying Walt upgraded the defense and WK didn't because Walt traded Jr and WK didn't is one of the most nutty things I've ever read on Redszone. I was only a lurker when BadFundementals was posting, but I think he might be back in disguise.

2. Its true Walt dumped EdE when WK didn't, but prior to doing so, Walt actually extended EdE and cost his team one its best pitching prospects in the process of dumping him. If WK made a poor judgement on EdE, so did Walt. Walt had the benefit of seeing another season of EdE not stepping forward before making a move (and Rolen demanding a trade home). Neither were benefits that WK had.

3. We can say that Walt didn't get that much benefit from WK's acquisitions, Cordero, Arroyo, Phillips, Stubbs, etc. and that the core of the team wasn't Wayne's doing, but Walt did get the benefit of the kids brought in before WK. Guys like Bailey, Wood, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Hanigan, etc were the real core along with WK's guys. Walt did have the benefit of using them. When WK was in charge those guys were still cooking and not ready to be served.

I'm not this biggest WK fan in the world, but so far, the primary difference that I can see between he and Walt is timimg. Timing is everything.

Mario-Rijo
12-29-2010, 06:26 PM
$45 million, the players in the system, and the players at the major league level? My supposition is that he'd do better than Krivsky did.

But we'll never know.

If you truly believe that we have nothing more to discuss. You, Edabbs & RedRead have your minds set that Walt is the correct guy for this small market team, I have my doubts.

I'll end my part of the discussion with this. If Walt is who you all think he is we will progress even further as an organization. Wayne Krivsky had his flaws but at the end of the day this organization was better for him being here after he left. We made the playoffs largely on the work of the guys before Walt, it is up to him to find a way to keep it going/improve upon it. I hope you guys know what your talking about.

kaldaniels
12-29-2010, 07:24 PM
For all the boasting of Wayne's Pena for Arroyo trade that I'm seeing, I don't see an equal amount of taking him to task for trading Hamilton for EV. (Which I supported doing I might add).

Bronson Arroyo has 12.6 WAR since joining the Reds (per fangraphs). Hamilton had 8.0 WAR last year. Volquez has totaled 5.4 as a Red.

What I'm getting at is that in the year 2025, looking back at this era, there is a good chance that the Hamilton trade will be worse than the Arroyo trade was good.

Rojo
12-29-2010, 07:55 PM
What I'm getting at is that in the year 2025, looking back at this era, there is a good chance that the Hamilton trade will be worse than the Arroyo trade was good.

And there's a good chance that it won't. How's that?

Don't underestimate the value of five straight years of 200 quality innings.

Rojo
12-29-2010, 07:57 PM
Some points that need to be considered:

1. When Walt traded Jr and Dunn, they had about 2 months left on their contracts. Does anyone honestly believe that Jr. Could have been traded in the season's prior when he was owed tens of Millions more? Saying Walt upgraded the defense and WK didn't because Walt traded Jr and WK didn't is one of the most nutty things I've ever read on Redszone. I was only a lurker when BadFundementals was posting, but I think he might be back in disguise.

2. Its true Walt dumped EdE when WK didn't, but prior to doing so, Walt actually extended EdE and cost his team one its best pitching prospects in the process of dumping him. If WK made a poor judgement on EdE, so did Walt. Walt had the benefit of seeing another season of EdE not stepping forward before making a move (and Rolen demanding a trade home). Neither were benefits that WK had.

3. We can say that Walt didn't get that much benefit from WK's acquisitions, Cordero, Arroyo, Phillips, Stubbs, etc. and that the core of the team wasn't Wayne's doing, but Walt did get the benefit of the kids brought in before WK. Guys like Bailey, Wood, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Hanigan, etc were the real core along with WK's guys. Walt did have the benefit of using them. When WK was in charge those guys were still cooking and not ready to be served.

I'm not this biggest WK fan in the world, but so far, the primary difference that I can see between he and Walt is timimg. Timing is everything.

All great points. I'd forgotten about the 2nd. Krivsky was wrong not to move EdE earlier but, like I said, I didn't see it either. By the time of Jocketty's extension, it was clear to me his glove was permanently made of iron.

Mario-Rijo
12-29-2010, 09:22 PM
For all the boasting of Wayne's Pena for Arroyo trade that I'm seeing, I don't see an equal amount of taking him to task for trading Hamilton for EV. (Which I supported doing I might add).

Bronson Arroyo has 12.6 WAR since joining the Reds (per fangraphs). Hamilton had 8.0 WAR last year. Volquez has totaled 5.4 as a Red.

What I'm getting at is that in the year 2025, looking back at this era, there is a good chance that the Hamilton trade will be worse than the Arroyo trade was good.

If Volquez never does anything remotely close to what he pulled off in '08 (I believe it was '08) then you will have a very fair point. More than fair even, but it hasn't happened yet, this is the reason why. Just too soon to get riled up over it. Although as tough as it is to get pitching it's still a tough pill for me to swallow, Hamilton was more special a player than almost any I have ever seen. Tough to watch him go. But if EV turns out to be Pedro-esque how can one complain?

kaldaniels
12-29-2010, 09:33 PM
If Volquez never does anything remotely close to what he pulled off in '08 (I believe it was '08) then you will have a very fair point. More than fair even, but it hasn't happened yet, this is the reason why. Just too soon to get riled up over it. Although as tough as it is to get pitching it's still a tough pill for me to swallow, Hamilton was more special a player than almost any I have ever seen. Tough to watch him go. But if EV turns out to be Pedro-esque how can one complain?

I'm not all riled up nor am I convinced my scenario will happen...but as I said I'm surprised that possibility is not mentioned more often.

edabbs44
12-29-2010, 09:47 PM
Some points that need to be considered:

1. When Walt traded Jr and Dunn, they had about 2 months left on their contracts. Does anyone honestly believe that Jr. Could have been traded in the season's prior when he was owed tens of Millions more? Saying Walt upgraded the defense and WK didn't because Walt traded Jr and WK didn't is one of the most nutty things I've ever read on Redszone. I was only a lurker when BadFundementals was posting, but I think he might be back in disguise.

I think that's a fair point, but Dunn probably could have been traded. Griffey was a rapidly depreciating asset that would have likely been very, very difficult to move. Especially from a PR standpoint.


2. Its true Walt dumped EdE when WK didn't, but prior to doing so, Walt actually extended EdE and cost his team one its best pitching prospects in the process of dumping him. If WK made a poor judgement on EdE, so did Walt. Walt had the benefit of seeing another season of EdE not stepping forward before making a move (and Rolen demanding a trade home). Neither were benefits that WK had.

You can look at the Rolen trade two ways, depending on what side you are on. Either Walt cost the team one of its best pitching prospects or Walt shrewdly dumped Edwin on Toronto. Let's not forget that Edwin was coming off a fairly solid 25 year old offensive season, he didn't extend a completely useless player.

One thing we have to remember is that GMs aren't perfect. But recognizing mistakes and remediating them is key.


3. We can say that Walt didn't get that much benefit from WK's acquisitions, Cordero, Arroyo, Phillips, Stubbs, etc. and that the core of the team wasn't Wayne's doing, but Walt did get the benefit of the kids brought in before WK. Guys like Bailey, Wood, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Hanigan, etc were the real core along with WK's guys. Walt did have the benefit of using them. When WK was in charge those guys were still cooking and not ready to be served.

Walt definitely got the benefit from his predecessors. And much of the core was definitely still cooking when WK was here. But that's been my point all along. Why was he (relatively) making it rain when the team wasn't in place?


QUOTE=mth123;2310122]I'm not this biggest WK fan in the world, but so far, the primary difference that I can see between he and Walt is timimg. Timing is everything.[/QUOTE]

I would also add patience. That to me is a huge difference as well. We can say that Bob forced Wayne and whatever else, but Walt got wrecked on this board throughout 2008 and 2009 for not doing anything and then got even more wrecked by some for trading for Rolen. Then got mocked last offseason for his lack of activity. But he stuck with what he thought was right and ended up with a division crown.

Now we go into another offseason and some are clamoring for him to make moves b/c of what Milwaukee is doing. But he is staying the course and not worrying about the rest of the league. I like that.

Griffey012
12-30-2010, 01:18 AM
Well, if Jr was bringing in so much money that Carl didn't want to trade him, he's not exactly an albotross.
IMO, comparing Jr and Cordero is too completely different animals.
Jr was a poor defender at the end of his career, but other than 2002, he gave us solid offensive production. Not always elete production, but solid.
The fact that the White Sox wanted him (as you posted) proves that Jr was tradable. If Jr was generating a lot of ticket sales, then he was not a financial burden.

I never said JR was bringing in "so much money". Simply put, footing 60% of 40 plus million dollars with 3+ years left of a deal is a pretty risky move with a player of superstar caliber. During 2005-2008 why do you think a majority of people came to the ballpark? To see Brandon Claussen be a bust? No it was to see KGJ play on a bad team. All I was saying is that Griffey probably brought in more than 40% of his contract, which would have made it a poor fiscal move for Lindner to allow the trade of Griffey. And it makes sense because we know how tight wadded Lindner was.



The whole point is that people used Jr as an excuse for Wayne's poor W-L record. Jr earned his money and then some. He was not the superstar we hoped for, but he earned his money.. Walt was saddled with Harang and Cordero (in addition to smaller albotrosses like Freel).. Walt had the disadvantage, by far.. Although IIIRC, Wayne did inherit one year of Milton.

Griffey is my favorite player of all-time, and always will be. But 2000 and 2005 were the only years he "earned" his money during his Reds tenure. Years of injuries and + or - .3 WAR do not correlate to a 10+ million dollar salary.

An honest question..were you for the Harang extension when it happened? I know I was. I was not in tORG at the time, thus do not recall your posting against the move, but to claim Walt was strung by the "poor" Harang deal, I would expect a lot of negativity toward the deal for you to make that claim. Nobody could have projected his fall from grace, and that deal should not be looked at as a knock on WK, it was a great move at the time. Harang was pitching like an ace, had great stuff, great K numbers, he had 4.2 and 5.4 WAR. His 1st season after the deal he finished 4th in Cy Young voting.


If you are trying to imply that Walt was just sitting on his hands and the trade fell into his lap, that's very unfair to Walt. Both Walt and Wayne worked very hard at their jobs, beating the bushes to try to improve the team constantly. It doesn't matter who initiated the talks. In the end, Walt got value for Jr, and got ownership to agree to the trade, something that was supposedly impossible for other GMs.

Once again, I ask you to read my other posts on Walt. I love having Walt as our GM. I have full confidence in him working all off-season to make moves happen. I had the same confidence last season. I am in no way trying to imply he was sitting on his hands during the trade deadline. I do not recall making one negative post towards Walt in the past. The entire point I made was that Griffey had very little trade value, and that was proven by Walt's comments about being surprised the White Sox were interested.

REDREAD
12-30-2010, 11:53 AM
Like Wayne was calling that. He brought in the OK AGon for short.


That's true, it was not a planned thing. But the point is, under Wayne's rule, he did not have a "glove" middle infielder on the bench.. This is not necessarily a huge sin.. but it's nice to have one bench infielder that can hit and one that can field well. The backups Wayne had were (largely) Harrison, Castro, Keppinger.. more emphasis on hitting. AGon was not a good signing. He was not really that great of a fielder or hitter.

Anyhow, my point was not about Harriston being planned to get all the playing time he did. My point was that in the BIG picture, Wayne did not value defense nearly as much as Walt does. That was a fundamental change of thinking that Walt brought here.




Jr and Dunn wasn't going to net you a Volquez. Combined, Walt could only get Masset for the both of them. That's not a case of valuing offense over defense, it's valuing pitching over everything else.


Well, the smart move would've have been to tell Texas that Hamilton was not going to be traded for a project pitcher with inconsistent control. I know a lot of people on this forum agree with the idea that pitching takes priority over everything (that's part of the reason Wayne is still so popular), but that's clearly a trade the Reds lost.

Jr for Masset was a fine trade. Not saying it was the greatest move ever, but it was solid.

6 weeks of Dunn for AZ scraps and some cost savings.. I agree, this was not exactly something to brag about (although it did allow the Reds to sign a couple more draft picks).. But it wasn't a disaster by any means. The Reds were not going to resign Dunn or offer him arb anyhow.





Krivsky came from the Twins, an organization that almost fetisihizes defense. That Krivsky didn't value it is bunk.

Ok, where's the evidence that Wayne did value defense? Phillips was an opportunity pickup. A great move for sure, but he would've been acquired even if his D was poor. The only other move Wayne made that improved defense was Corey Patterson. AGon was basically the only FA SS willing to talk to the Reds, so Wayne overpaid for him. It's not like AGon really was that great of a defender at the stage the Reds picked him up.

Look at the list of players that Wayne extended, aquired and gave playing time to over Wayne's reign. Then contrast that to the move that Walt has made. It's clear Walt values defense a lot more than Wayne does.

REDREAD
12-30-2010, 11:57 AM
Some points that need to be considered:

1. When Walt traded Jr and Dunn, they had about 2 months left on their contracts. Does anyone honestly believe that Jr. Could have been traded in the season's prior when he was owed tens of Millions more? Saying Walt upgraded the defense and WK didn't because Walt traded Jr and WK didn't is one of the most nutty things I've ever read on Redszone. I was only a lurker when BadFundementals was posting, but I think he might be back in disguise.



Again. look at the big picture. Other than signing Corey Patterson, what did Wayne do to improve defense?



I'm not this biggest WK fan in the world, but so far, the primary difference that I can see between he and Walt is timimg. Timing is everything.

Oh yea, Walt was just lucky to reap the fruits of Wayne :rolleyes: Giving fulltime jobs to Votto and Bruce, trimming dead weight and replacing 4 other position players had nothing to do with the team's improvement.

I don't dispute that the farm pipeline helped us win last year, but without the transactions Walt has done, we are probably around a 500 team at best.


2. Its true Walt dumped EdE when WK didn't, but prior to doing so, Walt actually extended EdE and cost his team one its best pitching prospects in the process of dumping him. If WK made a poor judgement on EdE, so did Walt.


Yes, I agree, extending EdE was a mistake by Walt. I have said that on other threads. I'm not worried about the prospects the Reds gave up. They are extremely overrated. Rolen has already given more value to the team than that prospect wonderkid will ever do. Does anyone regret trading BJ Ryan for Juan Guzman? I don't think so.

REDREAD
12-30-2010, 12:13 PM
I never said JR was bringing in "so much money". Simply put, footing 60% of 40 plus million dollars with 3+ years left of a deal is a pretty risky move with a player of superstar caliber. During 2005-2008 why do you think a majority of people came to the ballpark? To see Brandon Claussen be a bust? No it was to see KGJ play on a bad team. All I was saying is that Griffey probably brought in more than 40% of his contract, which would have made it a poor fiscal move for Lindner to allow the trade of Griffey. And it makes sense because we know how tight wadded Lindner was.


I just don't understand your position then.
Was Jr a good revenue generator for the Reds, or a milstone (or nuetral)?
If he sold tickets, combined with his offense, he was an asset, even with his poor D in RF. I really don't care what WAR says in this particular case. If Jr had a negative WAR, that means someone could get an 800 OPS bat from a replacement level player, which is obviously not true. It just does not pass the smell test.

If he was a millstone, I have to ask, why didn't Wayne do something about it? Why didn't he trade him?

I want to know where you stand on this. Not saying you specifically, but Wayne's defenders love to claim that Cast demanded instant results, Cast had no patience, Dusty and Cast forced Wayne to sign bad players, Dusty and Cast wouldn't let Wayne trade people away, etc.. This is all a bunch of excuses. Walt has obviously thrived under this environment and not been a whiner like Wayne... Wayne drove away a lot of Reds' employees, and then failed to take responsiblity for most of his mistakes (other than Stanton)..
It seems to me that Wayne is one of these guys that blames everything on everyone else.. Not an attribute I want in my GM.. Wayne had some talent, but is not the type of person you want running a team.

I really appreciate Wayne talking the O's into taking Freel off our hands though :lol:







An honest question..were you for the Harang extension when it happened? I know I was. I was not in tORG at the time, thus do not recall your posting against the move, but to claim Walt was strung by the "poor" Harang deal,


Sure, I liked it at the time. But thankfullly, I am not running the team.
I've supported many dumb moves, only to be proved wrong in hindsight.
That doesn't mean that the GM gets a free pass, just because I liked it.
I will say that even though the dollar value of Harang's deal was high, due to the risk-reward at the time, it was a smarter move than Stanton, Freel, and AGon.





Once again, I ask you to read my other posts on Walt. I love having Walt as our GM. I have full confidence in him working all off-season to make moves happen. I had the same confidence last season. .

Sure, I know this. It's hard when we have 4 people on each side talking at once. I'm not saying Wayne is an idiot. I'm just saying that I am glad he's gone. I also am convinced that if Wayne was still GM, we'd be a 500 team at best in 2010, despite all the young talent that arrived.

Griffey012
12-30-2010, 01:16 PM
I just don't understand your position then.
Was Jr a good revenue generator for the Reds, or a milstone (or nuetral)?
If he sold tickets, combined with his offense, he was an asset, even with his poor D in RF. I really don't care what WAR says in this particular case. If Jr had a negative WAR, that means someone could get an 800 OPS bat from a replacement level player, which is obviously not true. It just does not pass the smell test.


Sometimes it is cheaper to keep running a plant that is losing money than close the plant all together. Because if you close the plant you still have to pay certain fixed costs such a rent or the loan on the building. From the perspective of Griffey, say he brought in 45% of his salary via ticket sales, merchandise, and what not. If the Reds have to trade him for minimal return and pay all but 40% of his deal, then they are losing out on that 5% of value. Lindner was in this business to make money, not win games, he was not going to allow the deal to happen. And I think I have already clearly stated my thoughts on why Wayne did not trade Griffey, so I will not repeat them.

Ticket sales a player brings in to not translate to wins. Maybe he was a financial asset, but he was not a winning baseball team asset. The fact that he was an icon and sold tickets still doesn't mean he is an asset, it just means it he is an asset at 40 cents on the dollar.

I doubt you'll get an 800 OPS from a replacement player, but do you remember how horrible and slow he was in RF. That's why he had a close to 0 WAR, his bad defense outweighed the good from his offense.



I am not here in an attempt to defend that Wayne was a good GM, I am only arguing against some of the things that are classified as a knock on Wayne were out of his control. Many things were under his control and he faltered with them, that is clear. The Harang contract was just another example, for example what if Chapman goes all D-Train on us and can't throw strikes, and becomes useless, should the deal be looked at as a negative against Walt? Absolutely not, it should still be viewed as a good deal. Locking up one of the top pitchers in baseball at the time (Harang) while still in his prime was a good move. At the time the Arroyo extension was a much more questionable move, but in hindsight it has worked out better.

edabbs44
12-30-2010, 01:33 PM
I am not here in an attempt to defend that Wayne was a good GM, I am only arguing against some of the things that are classified as a knock on Wayne were out of his control. Many things were under his control and he faltered with them, that is clear. The Harang contract was just another example, for example what if Chapman goes all D-Train on us and can't throw strikes, and becomes useless, should the deal be looked at as a negative against Walt? Absolutely not, it should still be viewed as a good deal. Locking up one of the top pitchers in baseball at the time (Harang) while still in his prime was a good move. At the time the Arroyo extension was a much more questionable move, but in hindsight it has worked out better.

The Harang extension is an interesting discussion point. While he was one of the "top pitchers in baseball", Keith Law described him as a middle of the rotation guy and was blasted by many on here for doing so. To people "in the know", maybe he wasn't exactly a top pitcher in baseball at the time. Looking back, maybe that extension wasn't a no-brainer.

Makes for an interesting discussion. Who makes the absolute decision that it was a "good move"? Do we know enough to make that statement, especially when it ends up the way it did?

Rojo
12-30-2010, 03:59 PM
It's clear Walt values defense a lot more than Wayne does.

Wayne added Phillips, AGon, Ross and Patterson up the middle -- all solid-to-very-good gloves. He dumped FeLo and, unlike Walt, made no effort to extend EdE. And to much moaning on this board, he signed Castro - who's only tool is his glove.

You're bending over backward to find fault but this "Wayne didn't value defense" tact is a non-starter. Try something else.

edabbs44
12-30-2010, 09:10 PM
Wayne added Phillips, AGon, Ross and Patterson up the middle -- all solid-to-very-good gloves. He dumped FeLo and, unlike Walt, made no effort to extend EdE. And to much moaning on this board, he signed Castro - who's only tool is his glove.

You're bending over backward to find fault but this "Wayne didn't value defense" tact is a non-starter. Try something else.

I was under the impression that Wayne was sent to the store for some milk and when he returned, Patterson was shagging flies during batting practice with a shiny new 2 year contract in his back pocket.

:)

TRF
12-30-2010, 09:11 PM
I was under the impression that Wayne was sent to the store for some milk and when he returned, Patterson was shagging flies during batting practice with a shiny new 2 year contract in his back pocket.

:)

And BP, AGon, Ross?

Rojo is right, it's a tired argument.

edabbs44
12-30-2010, 09:23 PM
And BP, AGon, Ross?

Rojo is right, it's a tired argument.

To be honest, I think the argument is ridiculous when it entails cherry picking a few of the ridiculous amount of players acquired by WK and saying he leaned one way or the other because of those 3 or 4 guys.

The guy acquired BP and AGon. I didn't think that Ross was some defensive stalwart. But he also signed Hatteberg, traded Kearns and kept Dunn around. So he obviously wasn't all about defense.

But I was just commenting on the whole "Wayne had nothing to do with Patterson!" position, and then when it fits an argument, he was the mastermind behind it all.

Kind of funny.

REDREAD
01-03-2011, 10:13 AM
Harang contract was just another example, for example what if Chapman goes all D-Train on us and can't throw strikes, and becomes useless, should the deal be looked at as a negative against Walt? Absolutely not, it should still be viewed as a good deal. .

I disagree with this line of thought.
It's ok to say "well, in hindsight, doing move X seemed like a reasonable risk", but if the move backfires, it's still a bad move.
That's why being a GM is so hard.
IMO, you have to judge on results.
Just because a player can throw 100 MPH or the stat computer program likes the player doesn't mean he's automatically it's a good acquision.

I will agree that extending Harang made a lot more sense that extending Freel (for example), but the move still turned out badly in the later years.

REDREAD
01-03-2011, 10:15 AM
Wayne added Phillips, AGon, Ross and Patterson up the middle -- all solid-to-very-good gloves. He dumped FeLo and, unlike Walt, made no effort to extend EdE. And to much moaning on this board, he signed Castro - who's only tool is his glove.

You're bending over backward to find fault but this "Wayne didn't value defense" tact is a non-starter. Try something else.

Well, if you are convinced that Castro was a good glove when Wayne reacquired him, I'm not sure this conversation is going anywhere.

The defense now is light years better than when Wayne was running the team.

I do agree that Walt extending EdE was a bad move. I've said that several times.

Hoosier Red
01-03-2011, 10:31 AM
I disagree with this line of thought.
It's ok to say "well, in hindsight, doing move X seemed like a reasonable risk", but if the move backfires, it's still a bad move.
That's why being a GM is so hard.
IMO, you have to judge on results.
Just because a player can throw 100 MPH or the stat computer program likes the player doesn't mean he's automatically it's a good acquision.

I will agree that extending Harang made a lot more sense that extending Freel (for example), but the move still turned out badly in the later years.

I agree with RedRead here. I think when looking at "future trades" or trades as they are happening, I'm more concerned with the logic and philosophy behind the deal.
But eventually the deal has to be judged on its merits, did it work or not? Any general manager will make enough trades over the course of time that even ones where "it made sense at the time but didn't work out" are evened out by "looked terrible at the time, but XYZ player really developed." A GM with a good intelligent philosophy behind his trades will come out ahead on the long run.

This gets to what RedRead said initially, Walt seems to be better than Wayne at making a number of trades as part of a larger overall team philosophy where the sum is worth more than the parts individually.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 10:38 AM
I disagree with this line of thought.
It's ok to say "well, in hindsight, doing move X seemed like a reasonable risk", but if the move backfires, it's still a bad move.
That's why being a GM is so hard.
IMO, you have to judge on results.
Just because a player can throw 100 MPH or the stat computer program likes the player doesn't mean he's automatically it's a good acquision.

I will agree that extending Harang made a lot more sense that extending Freel (for example), but the move still turned out badly in the later years.

Obviously some good acquisitions can turn out poorly. However, the thought that the general fan base can accurately assess the "goodness" of every transaction is probably somewhat flawed.

Harang's extension looked good at the time but the collective FO would be in a much better position that we would be to assess Harang's future at the time of a contract extension.

I give more leeway to injuries and things that would generally be out of the FO's control. The reason why Harang broke down (if there is a specific reason) can be debated in a number of ways, but the bottom line is that the extension ended up being a poor one for the Reds and, ultimately, a bad one for the guy who gave it to Aaron.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 10:40 AM
This gets to what RedRead said initially, Walt seems to be better than Wayne at making a number of trades as part of a larger overall team philosophy where the sum is worth more than the parts individually.

That's what I think some are missing in this discussion. Wayne's greatest wins were individual player acquisitions while the overall major league product showed no improvement. Those 2007-2008 teams were atrocious.

Griffey012
01-03-2011, 11:32 AM
I agree with RedRead here. I think when looking at "future trades" or trades as they are happening, I'm more concerned with the logic and philosophy behind the deal.
But eventually the deal has to be judged on its merits, did it work or not? Any general manager will make enough trades over the course of time that even ones where "it made sense at the time but didn't work out" are evened out by "looked terrible at the time, but XYZ player really developed." A GM with a good intelligent philosophy behind his trades will come out ahead on the long run.

This gets to what RedRead said initially, Walt seems to be better than Wayne at making a number of trades as part of a larger overall team philosophy where the sum is worth more than the parts individually.

I agree with you and RedRead, but also stand behind my original beliefs. There are really two points in time to evaluate a move by a GM. At the time of the move we all have our initial analysis and reactions. And then in the middle or the end of the player's contract or tenure you have to reevaluate the move.

Some moves initially seem boneheaded and work out well
Some are bad and stay bad, or good and stay good
Some seem like good or great moves and work out awfully either because of failure to evaluate talent or injuries.

To me it is the moves that are initially bad and stay bad, (ex. Cubs signing Milton Bradley) ,the moves that initially appear like a good move and work out that way (ex. Phillips trade), and the moves that seem great and work out awfully due to a poor evaluation of talent/player attitude (ex. would be the Dodgers resigning ManRam) that are the true evaluators of a GM's ability.

Other moves such as one that seems boneheaded and works out well can be an indicator depending on the situation, but it's hard for me to recall a situation where a GM made what seemed like an awful move and it really worked out well, but I am sure someone else could give me some examples.

The good moves that do not work out because of injuries are really out of the control of the GM (unless the player has a previous injury history). It's a whole external debate as to whether Harang falls into this category or not, and I am not trying to start that debate here. But a good example is Bowden's acquisition of Griffey, to me even with the outcome, the move was one of the best of Bowden's career, because nobody could have predicted such a poor outcome due to injuries.

Slyder
01-03-2011, 02:04 PM
Okay I tried to read through the thread since I've got my comp back and working again...

And the best posts of this thread is the one of the pong game and the Ferris Buehler post credit scene.

Can we just agree to disagree and say without either the 10 season doesn't likely happen? Please?

REDREAD
01-03-2011, 02:40 PM
To me it is the moves that are initially bad and stay bad, (ex. Cubs signing Milton Bradley).

The ironic thing is that many folks on this board really wanted the Reds to go after Bradley. Sure, they didn't want to give him as long of a deal as the Cubs did, but he was on a lot of folks' wish list.

I agree that moves that seem boneheaded at the time should be judged harsher if they fail to pan out.

On the other hand, there's some moves that are almost universally panned when they happen, yet turn out to be good. Rich Aurilla was a good example.
I think that's good evidence that us internet posters might not know as much as we think we know..

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 02:42 PM
The ironic thing is that many folks on this board really wanted the Reds to go after Bradley. Sure, they didn't want to give him as long of a deal as the Cubs did, but he was on a lot of folks' wish list.

I agree that moves that seem boneheaded at the time should be judged harsher if they fail to pan out.

On the other hand, there's some moves that are almost universally panned when they happen, yet turn out to be good. Rich Aurilla was a good example.
I think that's good evidence that us internet posters might not know as much as we think we know..

I got into more than a few scrums on the anti-Bradley side.

TRF
01-03-2011, 03:14 PM
I disagree with this line of thought.
It's ok to say "well, in hindsight, doing move X seemed like a reasonable risk", but if the move backfires, it's still a bad move.
That's why being a GM is so hard.
IMO, you have to judge on results.
Just because a player can throw 100 MPH or the stat computer program likes the player doesn't mean he's automatically it's a good acquision.

I will agree that extending Harang made a lot more sense that extending Freel (for example), but the move still turned out badly in the later years.

horse hockey. that kind of thinking would paralyze a GM. You take all the available data, plus your experience and you make the moves you fell are best. Some won't work out, not because the deal was bad, but because circumstances that did not exist at the time changed things. It doesn't always happen, but sometimes it does.

The Harang deal was a good one. What happened after was unfortunate, but it wasn't like he had a chronic knee injury the Reds knew about beforehand (Milton).

Jocketty IMO doesn't deal that way, neither did WK. In fact Any good GM will have his share of good deals that went south.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 03:24 PM
The Harang deal was a good one. What happened after was unfortunate, but it wasn't like he had a chronic knee injury the Reds knew about beforehand (Milton).

I think saying "the Harang deal was a good one" is questionable now. When something goes as bad as it did without injury, you have to change your mind just a bit.

It seemed good at the time. It ended up poorly.

Slyder
01-03-2011, 03:32 PM
I think saying "the Harang deal was a good one" is questionable now. When something goes as bad as it did without injury, you have to change your mind just a bit.

It seemed good at the time. It ended up poorly.

Anyone who says they saw Harang falling off of Mt. St. Helens the last 3 years at the ages of 29, 30, and 31 (using age opening day) is lieing or akin to Nostradamus (if this is the case could you tell me next weeks lotto numbers?). Harang had been so consistant for us that a small decline could have been seen but not what we were experience to from Harang-atang. Much like I write off the AGon contract, there was 0 way to anyone to predict his son would get as bad as he did (costing him time), getting hurt and losing a lot of his range (could argue his total cost) but we had a need at SS with little to no real in house options unless you want to count Keppinger or Hairston.

camisadelgolf
01-03-2011, 03:32 PM
I think saying "the Harang deal was a good one" is questionable now. When something goes as bad as it did without injury, you have to change your mind just a bit.

It seemed good at the time. It ended up poorly.
I think that's exactly what TRF is saying. Harang's deal turned out bad, but at the time, it was a good one. At one time, the Ken Griffey Jr. trade/extension was a great move, but it obviously didn't work out. Signing a 40-year-old Arthur Rhodes to a two-year contract was seen by many as a bad deal (or at least a mediocre one), but it turned out to be a very good one. The first Arroyo extension didn't necessarily look all that great, but it turned out very well for the Reds. Nothing in baseball is guaranteed, so you have to judge these things based on likelihoods.

One more example: the Jay Bruce extension looks like it will be a huge bargain, but there's a decent chance it could look like a horrible deal by the time the contract is finished. We can judge the deal with more accuracy later on, but in the meantime, we're going to call it a good deal based on the odds.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 03:39 PM
Anyone who says they saw Harang falling off of Mt. St. Helens the last 3 years at the ages of 29, 30, and 31 (using age opening day) is lieing or akin to Nostradamus (if this is the case could you tell me next weeks lotto numbers?). Harang had been so consistant for us that a small decline could have been seen but not what we were experience to from Harang-atang. Much like I write off the AGon contract, there was 0 way to anyone to predict his son would get as bad as he did (costing him time), getting hurt and losing a lot of his range (could argue his total cost) but we had a need at SS with little to no real in house options unless you want to count Keppinger or Hairston.

Maybe anyone who saw him falling off from our vantage point, but what about when your job is to do just that?

I give more leeway to AGon's contract due to extenuating circumstances. I think Harang is different.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 03:42 PM
I think that's exactly what TRF is saying. Harang's deal turned out bad, but at the time, it was a good one. At one time, the Ken Griffey Jr. trade/extension was a great move, but it obviously didn't work out. Signing a 40-year-old Arthur Rhodes to a two-year contract was seen by many as a bad deal (or at least a mediocre one), but it turned out to be a very good one. The first Arroyo extension didn't necessarily look all that great, but it turned out very well for the Reds. Nothing in baseball is guaranteed, so you have to judge these things based on likelihoods.

I agree with this, but when you sign someone and it doesn't work out from a strict performance standpoint, well maybe it was just a bad signing.


One more example: the Jay Bruce extension looks like it will be a huge bargain, but there's a decent chance it could look like a horrible deal by the time the contract is finished. We can judge the deal with more accuracy later on, but in the meantime, we're going to call it a good deal based on the odds.

Right. Just like we are judging the Harang extension with more accuracy now. It seemed good at the time. It ended up being a bad move.

camisadelgolf
01-03-2011, 03:50 PM
Right. Just like we are judging the Harang extension with more accuracy now. It seemed good at the time. It ended up being a bad move.
Then unless I'm misunderstanding something, it sounds like we all agree.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 04:00 PM
Then unless I'm misunderstanding something, it sounds like we all agree.

I get the feeling that the contract is treated by some with kid gloves for the wrong reasons.

REDREAD
01-03-2011, 04:46 PM
horse hockey. that kind of thinking would paralyze a GM. You take all the available data, plus your experience and you make the moves you fell are best. .

Yes, of course. I was talking about message board fans evaluating trades in hindsight. Obviously a GM has to do what he thinks is best.. I wasn't saying otherwise.

However, I have seen cases on this board where a transaction turns out horribly, yet it is still counted as "good" because the poster agreed with the line of thinking at the time.. The classic example is Volquez for Hamilton. We clearly lost that trade at this point in time, yet some claim it was a total no brainer and still defend it.. IMO, it was a risky move at the time. I'm not saying it was a bonehead move, but it's not as if it was a move that would be in the Reds favor 99 times out of 100 and the Reds simply lost due to bad luck.

REDREAD
01-03-2011, 04:51 PM
Maybe anyone who saw him falling off from our vantage point, but what about when your job is to do just that?

I give more leeway to AGon's contract due to extenuating circumstances. I think Harang is different.

Personally, I thought giving AGon three years at a pretty high salary was a huge mistake at the time. Even before he was hurt, he was not exactly a defensive wizard. About the only thing really going for him was his power.
It was comparable to offering Orlando Caberra a multiyear deal last year.
You only go year to year on guys like that.. If Toronto outbids us for Gonzo, so be it. Why commit 15 million (or whatever it was) to 3 years of almost certain mediocrity?

IMO, Harang seemed like a reasonable risk to me at the time.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 04:52 PM
Personally, I thought giving AGon three years at a pretty high salary was a huge mistake at the time. Even before he was hurt, he was not exactly a defensive wizard. About the only thing really going for him was his power.
It was comparable to offering Orlando Caberra a multiyear deal last year.
You only go year to year on guys like that.. If Toronto outbids us for Gonzo, so be it. Why commit 15 million (or whatever it was) to 3 years of almost certain mediocrity?

IMO, Harang seemed like a reasonable risk to me at the time.

I hated the signing as well but I cannot predict how it would have panned out if he didn't have the other things to deal with.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 04:53 PM
Yes, of course. I was talking about message board fans evaluating trades in hindsight. Obviously a GM has to do what he thinks is best.. I wasn't saying otherwise.

However, I have seen cases on this board where a transaction turns out horribly, yet it is still counted as "good" because the poster agreed with the line of thinking at the time.. The classic example is Volquez for Hamilton. We clearly lost that trade at this point in time, yet some claim it was a total no brainer and still defend it.. IMO, it was a risky move at the time. I'm not saying it was a bonehead move, but it's not as if it was a move that would be in the Reds favor 99 times out of 100 and the Reds simply lost due to bad luck.

This logic I agree with.

Hoosier Red
01-03-2011, 05:06 PM
Yes, of course. I was talking about message board fans evaluating trades in hindsight. Obviously a GM has to do what he thinks is best.. I wasn't saying otherwise.

However, I have seen cases on this board where a transaction turns out horribly, yet it is still counted as "good" because the poster agreed with the line of thinking at the time.. The classic example is Volquez for Hamilton. We clearly lost that trade at this point in time, yet some claim it was a total no brainer and still defend it.. IMO, it was a risky move at the time. I'm not saying it was a bonehead move, but it's not as if it was a move that would be in the Reds favor 99 times out of 100 and the Reds simply lost due to bad luck.

I think that deal is the perfect example of why its important to judge in the greater context of the team building. If you have a good vision and a good philosophy, eventually the good and bad trades will even out and you'll have built a good team. But in the end you have to be judged by the results of the team.

Griffey012
01-03-2011, 05:15 PM
That's what I think some are missing in this discussion. Wayne's greatest wins were individual player acquisitions while the overall major league product showed no improvement. Those 2007-2008 teams were atrocious.

That's a great one line analysis of Wayne. And Walt's line would read less about individual acquisitions and much more about team accomplishments.

kaldaniels
01-03-2011, 05:25 PM
That's a great one line analysis of Wayne. And Walt's line would read less about individual acquisitions and much more about team accomplishments.

I've made several points on Walt's behalf in this thread (as frankly I don't have a favorite and I'm trying to be objective) but I don't get this thought that Walt builds a team well while Wayne acquires single players well. Isn't an upgrade an upgrade? Doesn't enough upgrades = team success?

Are there any examples to this claim?

Griffey012
01-03-2011, 05:52 PM
I've made several points on Walt's behalf in this thread (as frankly I don't have a favorite and I'm trying to be objective) but I don't get this thought that Walt builds a team well while Wayne acquires single players well. Isn't an upgrade an upgrade? Doesn't enough upgrades = team success?

Are there any examples to this claim?

Wayne had a lot of good individual moves that we all know about which were big upgrades at certain spots. He also failed to create much depth which allowed for some travesties to play the field a lot. Walt's only big upgrade thus far has been Rolen, but he has brought in a handful of upgrades of a lesser extent such as Ramon and some bullpen guys, but has not suffered from weakening other spots in the process.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 06:29 PM
I've made several points on Walt's behalf in this thread (as frankly I don't have a favorite and I'm trying to be objective) but I don't get this thought that Walt builds a team well while Wayne acquires single players well. Isn't an upgrade an upgrade? Doesn't enough upgrades = team success?

Are there any examples to this claim?

Wayne's "wins" were mostly at the major league level. He spent at the major league level. He retained players at big money at the major league level. And the team didn't improve.

Phillips, Arroyo, Hamilton/Volquez acquired for a collective song. Retained Dunn, Harang and Arroyo. Spent big on Cordero. Saw the debuts of Bruce and Votto. Got Ross for nada. Spent decent money on Gonzo.

Is there any reason why we shouldn't have seen at least some improvement on the field? 2007-08 was ugly. Upgrades are upgrades, sure, but when you have those wins at the major league level and access to that money, shouldn't you see improvements? Upgrades only improve the team when you don't have offsetting downgrades.

Mario-Rijo
01-03-2011, 06:53 PM
Wayne's "wins" were mostly at the major league level. He spent at the major league level. He retained players at big money at the major league level. And the team didn't improve.

Phillips, Arroyo, Hamilton/Volquez acquired for a collective song. Retained Dunn, Harang and Arroyo. Spent big on Cordero. Saw the debuts of Bruce and Votto. Got Ross for nada. Spent decent money on Gonzo.

Is there any reason why we shouldn't have seen at least some improvement on the field? 2007-08 was ugly. Upgrades are upgrades, sure, but when you have those wins at the major league level and access to that money, shouldn't you see improvements? Upgrades only improve the team when you don't have offsetting downgrades.

There are loads of reasons why the product on the field didn't reflect the upgrades, you blaming Wayne for it is really not fair IMO. You keep coming back to the record of a team where the GM was handcuffed. If the organization was moving towards respectability during his tenure then he was doing his job. Walt fell right into the perfect storm so the standards by which he is measured should be different, to date all he has done is avoided making a critical mistake but when you take small measured steps you aren't real likely to. He has the good fortune of not having to take many risks as the guy before him had to do.

Judge each on their own merit within the timeline of the organization and the obstacles in front of them.

westofyou
01-03-2011, 07:50 PM
Wayne Krivsky = Murray Cook
Walt Jocketty = Bob Quinn

TRF
01-03-2011, 07:52 PM
Wayne's "wins" were mostly at the major league level. He spent at the major league level. He retained players at big money at the major league level. And the team didn't improve.

Phillips, Arroyo, Hamilton/Volquez acquired for a collective song. Retained Dunn, Harang and Arroyo. Spent big on Cordero. Saw the debuts of Bruce and Votto. Got Ross for nada. Spent decent money on Gonzo.

Is there any reason why we shouldn't have seen at least some improvement on the field? 2007-08 was ugly. Upgrades are upgrades, sure, but when you have those wins at the major league level and access to that money, shouldn't you see improvements? Upgrades only improve the team when you don't have offsetting downgrades.

Stubbs, Mesoraco, Juan Duran, (and possibly Yorman Rodriguez too, even though Walt actually signed him) DRH (who gave the Reds some very good outings and has been extremely good in the minors). Plus he cleared away a bunch of chaff.

Oh, and to an earlier point of WK had less to work with: after the 06 season WK acquired Hamilton from the Cubs as a Rule V selection, then took Burton from the A's. The Reds were so deep with talent that they had 2 Rule V picks on the 25 man roster on opening day 2007.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 09:20 PM
Stubbs, Mesoraco, Juan Duran, (and possibly Yorman Rodriguez too, even though Walt actually signed him) DRH (who gave the Reds some very good outings and has been extremely good in the minors). Plus he cleared away a bunch of chaff.

Oh, and to an earlier point of WK had less to work with: after the 06 season WK acquired Hamilton from the Cubs as a Rule V selection, then took Burton from the A's. The Reds were so deep with talent that they had 2 Rule V picks on the 25 man roster on opening day 2007.

Wouldn't at least some of that be on WK? I mean, he acquired like 20 relievers when he took over that atrocious bullpen and still had room for Burton.

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 09:27 PM
There are loads of reasons why the product on the field didn't reflect the upgrades, you blaming Wayne for it is really not fair IMO. You keep coming back to the record of a team where the GM was handcuffed. If the organization was moving towards respectability during his tenure then he was doing his job. Walt fell right into the perfect storm so the standards by which he is measured should be different, to date all he has done is avoided making a critical mistake but when you take small measured steps you aren't real likely to. He has the good fortune of not having to take many risks as the guy before him had to do.

Judge each on their own merit within the timeline of the organization and the obstacles in front of them.

I do. Anyone who is able to acquire Arroyo, Phillips and Hamilton for nothing and spend like he was able to spend should have been able to show improvement over 2+ years. I've said it for years...he struggled putting the whole picture together.

TRF
01-04-2011, 09:44 AM
Wouldn't at least some of that be on WK? I mean, he acquired like 20 relievers when he took over that atrocious bullpen and still had room for Burton.

Jocketty had the reins for 5 months of 2008, all of the offseason and managed to increase the win total by 4 games in 2009. Is any of that on him? or is it that WK's team wasn't yet ready to win? The 2010 Reds were ready to win because of infusions of talent from JimBo, DanO, WK and Jocketty. But from reading your posts it would not have been possible if it hadn't been Jocketty even though his additions outside of Rolen were not all that unique.

edabbs44
01-04-2011, 10:04 AM
Jocketty had the reins for 5 months of 2008, all of the offseason and managed to increase the win total by 4 games in 2009. Is any of that on him? or is it that WK's team wasn't yet ready to win?

Not sure what you are getting at.



The 2010 Reds were ready to win because of infusions of talent from JimBo, DanO, WK and Jocketty. But from reading your posts it would not have been possible if it hadn't been Jocketty even though his additions outside of Rolen were not all that unique.

When handed a team you can act in a few different ways. You can overhaul, stay put, or pick and choose certain moves to make.

I think you should stop looking at the "additions" and start looking at the overall picture. The GM game isn't all about additions. It is about decisions. Walt has made some unpopular moves while here. And they all added up to a division title.

Other GMs could have kept Dunn around. Maybe traded Stubbs in the offseason for more "immediate" help. Maybe Bruce gets benched down the stretch. You never know what that would have meant for the team.

No one is saying that Walt did this all on his own. But he did put his stamp on the team and it ended up with a division crown. Would it have been possible without Walt? Kind of difficult to say. But I would think that a division crown was as much as we could have hoped for. I think Walt hit the Reds ceiling for 2010.

westofyou
01-04-2011, 10:11 AM
When handed a team you can act in a few different ways. You can overhaul, stay put, or pick and choose certain moves to make.

I think you should stop looking at the "additions" and start looking at the overall picture. The GM game isn't all about additions. It is about decisions. Walt has made some unpopular moves while here. And they all added up to a division title.

Other GMs could have kept Dunn around. Maybe traded Stubbs in the offseason for more "immediate" help. Maybe Bruce gets benched down the stretch. You never know what that would have meant for the team.

No one is saying that Walt did this all on his own. But he did put his stamp on the team and it ended up with a division crown. Would it have been possible without Walt? Kind of difficult to say. But I would think that a division crown was as much as we could have hoped for. I think Walt hit the Reds ceiling for 2010.

O'brien told Cast that the future was in the ML for teh reds, when asked about NOW he replied that it was still going to be in the ML he was canned and WK was hired.

That's the info I have from insiders, chances are about 100% that WK knew what the owner wanted when he took the job, so he shuffle as many cards as he could (and had to to keep his job)

He drew some bad hands early on, but he wasn't able to finish the game and thus no one will ever know how it wold have played out.

TRF
01-04-2011, 10:42 AM
O'brien told Cast that the future was in the ML for teh reds, when asked about NOW he replied that it was still going to be in the ML he was canned and WK was hired.

That's the info I have from insiders, chances are about 100% that WK knew what the owner wanted when he took the job, so he shuffle as many cards as he could (and had to to keep his job)

He drew some bad hands early on, but he wasn't able to finish the game and thus no one will ever know how it wold have played out.

best post on this thread.

can we stop now?

edabbs44
01-04-2011, 10:50 AM
O'brien told Cast that the future was in the ML for teh reds, when asked about NOW he replied that it was still going to be in the ML he was canned and WK was hired.

That's the info I have from insiders, chances are about 100% that WK knew what the owner wanted when he took the job, so he shuffle as many cards as he could (and had to to keep his job)

He drew some bad hands early on, but he wasn't able to finish the game and thus no one will ever know how it wold have played out.

If true, then I would have 2 somewhat simple thoughts/questions on the situation:

1) As you said (and as I have said in the past) WK knew the expectations when hired and knew what the team had. If he was told that he had to win now and accepted the job then it was a poor career move by him.

2) Even with that, why was he unable to improve the ML product? He had money to spend and made some really, really good low/zero cost acquisitions. He was given the opportunity to show improvement. No one is saying that Krivsky should have had them playing in October in 2007-2008. But I think improvement was a reasonable expectation.

If you were to give a GM the 2006 Reds, hand them Arroyo and Phillips in 2006 and Hamilton before the 2007 season and also tell them that they will be able to raise payroll by close to 25% over 2 years, would you expect the team to do better than +1 game from 2005-2008 while losing 27 runs in run differential?

REDREAD
01-04-2011, 11:00 AM
I've made several points on Walt's behalf in this thread (as frankly I don't have a favorite and I'm trying to be objective) but I don't get this thought that Walt builds a team well while Wayne acquires single players well. Isn't an upgrade an upgrade? Doesn't enough upgrades = team success?

Are there any examples to this claim?

Wayne also made a lot of bad moves which counteracted his good moves.
In 2006, the team got a huge boost from Arroyo and Phillips (among others).
Then the talent addition pretty much dried up. More subtractions than additions, which showed in both the W-L record and win differential.

I also firmly believe that Wayne did not see the big picture. He was fortunate enough to stumble upon Phillips (which I give him credit for), but totally neglected the rest of the up the middle (Bako, Patterson, Clayton, Agon, trading away Hamilton).. When you already have EdE and Dunn on the left side, that's a recipe for disaster, which is going to sabotage all the effort spent on upgrading pitching.

REDREAD
01-04-2011, 11:05 AM
There are loads of reasons why the product on the field didn't reflect the upgrades, you blaming Wayne for it is really not fair IMO. You keep coming back to the record of a team where the GM was handcuffed. If the organization was moving towards respectability during his tenure then he was doing his job. Walt .

I fail to see how Wayne was handcuffed.
He was given more money/payflex to spend on free agents/acquisions/extensions than any GM in Reds history (including Walt)
How many contracts did Cast end up having to eat because of Wayne's poor judgement? In the end, I think that's what did Wayne in. The team was not improving in the W-L record, and 2008 was a disasterous start with about 4-5 players that needed to be eaten. Cast had enough, and I don't blame him.

Walt was fortunate enough to inherit some young players, but I really doubt Wayne had the talent to add the Rolen, Rhodes, etc to get over the top.
Instead of Rolen, Wayne would pick up another Stanton, Castro, etc.

westofyou
01-04-2011, 11:20 AM
If you were to give a GM the 2006 Reds, hand them Arroyo and Phillips in 2006 and Hamilton before the 2007 season and also tell them that they will be able to raise payroll by close to 25% over 2 years, would you expect the team to do better than +1 game from 2005-2008 while losing 27 runs in run differential?
In a vacuum yes, but there are many other factors that are in that result.

But those teams lacked depth and they lacked team speed and defense, Arroyo and Phillips are not the bodies that pull a team over the top, Hamilton acquired something Arroyo wasn't a potential TOR.

Like I said WK is Murray Cook, he produced some changes, and was shuttled off before he could complete a 3rd season. Quinn (like Jocketty) was a seasoned baseball executive, he was seen as being more entwined in the culture of the other GMs.

Cook who was canned from the Expos GM job for having an affair with the owners wife (they married) was never a GM again after he left the Reds.

I'm thinking that WK might be in the same boat.

camisadelgolf
01-04-2011, 11:24 AM
How many contracts did Cast end up having to eat because of Wayne's poor judgement?
Other than Rheal Cormier and Mike Stanton, how many contracts has Castellini 'eaten' because of Krivsky?
Alex Gonzalez? He missed time primarily due to injuries and his child's medical condition. He was flipped for a young shortstop that's currently on the 40-man roster. Since then, he has been one of the better shortstops in baseball.
Dave Ross? He has been great since leaving and became part of the best catching corp in the NL.
I guess you could make a case for Scott Hatteberg, but he easily outperformed his contract and afforded Joey Votto time to fully develop in AAA.
Don't get me wrong--I think bad contracts were a factor in his firing, but it's not like he was the guy who paid Eric Milton, Jason LaRue, Dave Williams, etc.

Rojo
01-04-2011, 02:23 PM
Princeton had the best take on it when he said adding some more money to the Minnesota model was probably better in the long run then taking some money away from the St. Louis model.

But I like Walt and think that if the team commits to a higher level of spending, which they seem to be doing, the model can work.



He was fortunate enough to stumble upon Phillips (which I give him credit for)

Great backhanded compliment (which I'm not saying it is).

Mario-Rijo
01-04-2011, 05:36 PM
I fail to see how Wayne was handcuffed.
He was given more money/payflex to spend on free agents/acquisions/extensions than any GM in Reds history (including Walt)
How many contracts did Cast end up having to eat because of Wayne's poor judgement? In the end, I think that's what did Wayne in. The team was not improving in the W-L record, and 2008 was a disasterous start with about 4-5 players that needed to be eaten. Cast had enough, and I don't blame him.

Walt was fortunate enough to inherit some young players, but I really doubt Wayne had the talent to add the Rolen, Rhodes, etc to get over the top.
Instead of Rolen, Wayne would pick up another Stanton, Castro, etc.

Where was he handcuffed? Why did those teams stink so bad in the 1st place? They had no pitching, they were terrible on defense and for as much publicity as their offense got they were limited there as well (swing for the fences, feast or famine types). And the culture on the team was horrible due to all the years of losing prior to it. They got worse record wise because Wayne got rid of some of that offense. Wily Mo, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, you know guys who either stunk at defense (and were limited offensively) or were a part of that poor culture. Ya can't praise Walt for adding Rolen to help change the culture and not recognize the job Wayne had to do, purge a whole team of it.

They were gonna get worse before they got better from a W-L, RS/RA standpoint. All Wayne tried to do was keep them from hitting bottom while he remade the team. Certainly he made some poor judgement calls as to whom could keep it afloat. But make no mistake even though Wayne was given an edict to win he knew better and he was clearly looking at the big picture all along the proof is in the job he done. He aimed for pitching and defense with all of his acquisitions but mainly was trying to improve a talent base from an overall perspective, you need resources to get resources and he created them out of nearly nothing.

Wayne took a team with very little in the pipeline, almost all of it at High A or less, a major league product that would soon prove to have almost nothing of value to it and created progress. W/L record be damned, who cares, no one should have because it was in the process of being overhauled completely. If Wayne thought he could actually win with that team he wouldn't have dealt them away (in most cases) or attempted to (in others). And yet some can't see this, they focus on the Cormiers and Stantons, tragic.

edabbs44
01-04-2011, 08:56 PM
Where was he handcuffed? Why did those teams stink so bad in the 1st place? They had no pitching, they were terrible on defense and for as much publicity as their offense got they were limited there as well (swing for the fences, feast or famine types). And the culture on the team was horrible due to all the years of losing prior to it. They got worse record wise because Wayne got rid of some of that offense. Wily Mo, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, you know guys who either stunk at defense (and were limited offensively) or were a part of that poor culture. Ya can't praise Walt for adding Rolen to help change the culture and not recognize the job Wayne had to do, purge a whole team of it.

They were gonna get worse before they got better from a W-L, RS/RA standpoint. All Wayne tried to do was keep them from hitting bottom while he remade the team. Certainly he made some poor judgement calls as to whom could keep it afloat. But make no mistake even though Wayne was given an edict to win he knew better and he was clearly looking at the big picture all along the proof is in the job he done. He aimed for pitching and defense with all of his acquisitions but mainly was trying to improve a talent base from an overall perspective, you need resources to get resources and he created them out of nearly nothing.

Wayne took a team with very little in the pipeline, almost all of it at High A or less, a major league product that would soon prove to have almost nothing of value to it and created progress. W/L record be damned, who cares, no one should have because it was in the process of being overhauled completely. If Wayne thought he could actually win with that team he wouldn't have dealt them away (in most cases) or attempted to (in others). And yet some can't see this, they focus on the Cormiers and Stantons, tragic.

If you know that the team is going to get worse, why increase payroll by 25% in 2 years? Why sign Cordero to the biggest contract ever for a reliever when you know that he is getting old and the team isn't really there for 2008 and 2009? Why aren't you conserving payroll and looking beyond that near term window?

TRF
01-05-2011, 09:51 AM
If you know that the team is going to get worse, why increase payroll by 25% in 2 years? Why sign Cordero to the biggest contract ever for a reliever when you know that he is getting old and the team isn't really there for 2008 and 2009? Why aren't you conserving payroll and looking beyond that near term window?

because change isn't cheap? because changing a culture costs money? because team leaders rarely come from the minors? (Jeter and Longoria being two exceptions) Because having Cordero makes it easier to find his successor? Think about this, the next closer for the Reds likely won't make more than 3-4 mil. And the Reds have the luxury of finding that closer in house (Masset, Arredondo, Chapman, Bray, Burton).

You don't make an omelet without buying some eggs to break. Unless you live on a farm. And the Reds farm was barren for a decade prior to 2004.

edabbs44
01-05-2011, 10:00 AM
because change isn't cheap? because changing a culture costs money? because team leaders rarely come from the minors? (Jeter and Longoria being two exceptions) Because having Cordero makes it easier to find his successor? Think about this, the next closer for the Reds likely won't make more than 3-4 mil. And the Reds have the luxury of finding that closer in house (Masset, Arredondo, Chapman, Bray, Burton).

You don't make an omelet without buying some eggs to break. Unless you live on a farm. And the Reds farm was barren for a decade prior to 2004.

Which transactions do you think Krivsky made with culture and leadership in mind?

I don't buy the Cordero explanation. WK inherited a horrendous bullpen and became obsesed with remaking it. He acquired a ridiculous amount of relievers between 2006-2008 and Cordero was his finishing touch. He didn't sign him with culture or anything else in mind except that he though he needed a "name" closer in order to make the team better. And it was a bad move.

camisadelgolf
01-05-2011, 10:19 AM
Which transactions do you think Krivsky made with culture and leadership in mind?

I don't buy the Cordero explanation. WK inherited a horrendous bullpen and became obsesed with remaking it. He acquired a ridiculous amount of relievers between 2006-2008 and Cordero was his finishing touch. He didn't sign him with culture or anything else in mind except that he though he needed a "name" closer in order to make the team better. And it was a bad move.
I agree with you about Cordero, but I suspect Krivsky made a lot of moves with culture and leadership in mind.
Bronson Arroyo
Juan Castro
Eddie Guardado
Rheal Cormier
Todd Hollandsworth
Quinton McCracken
Jeff Conine
Joe Mays
Mark Bellhorn
Scott Hatteberg
Mike Stanton

. . . and others. Of course, aside from Arroyo, Hatteberg, and Guradado, these were some of Krivsky's worst moves in the eyes of RedsZone.

edabbs44
01-05-2011, 10:26 AM
I agree with you about Cordero, but I suspect Krivsky made a lot of moves with culture and leadership in mind.
Bronson Arroyo
Juan Castro
Eddie Guardado
Rheal Cormier
Todd Hollandsworth
Quinton McCracken
Jeff Conine
Joe Mays
Mark Bellhorn
Scott Hatteberg
Mike Stanton

. . . and others. Of course, aside from Arroyo, Hatteberg, and Guradado, these were some of Krivsky's worst moves in the eyes of RedsZone.

Those were on the low end of the spectrum when it came to raising the payroll, which is the basis of this discussion.

Mario-Rijo
01-05-2011, 12:43 PM
If you know that the team is going to get worse, why increase payroll by 25% in 2 years? Why sign Cordero to the biggest contract ever for a reliever when you know that he is getting old and the team isn't really there for 2008 and 2009? Why aren't you conserving payroll and looking beyond that near term window?

What, do you really think they would have conserved those funds for 2-3 years down the road? Despite the fact that he overpaid much like the Nats did with Jayson Werth, (when you need something sometimes you have to overpay to get it) he was trying to improve them and it did.

Mario-Rijo
01-05-2011, 12:46 PM
Those were on the low end of the spectrum when it came to raising the payroll, which is the basis of this discussion.

It is?

edabbs44
01-05-2011, 12:53 PM
It is?

The discussion I was having from which he quoted my response.

edabbs44
01-05-2011, 12:55 PM
What, do you really think they would have conserved those funds for 2-3 years down the road? Despite the fact that he overpaid much like the Nats did with Jayson Werth, (when you need something sometimes you have to overpay to get it) he was trying to improve them and it did.

I'm still confused as to what was improved. I think the perception of the team that some had was improved. But the major league product from 2006-2008 was not. Even with some great acquisitions, opening of a checkbook and youngsters hitting the show.

REDREAD
01-05-2011, 01:18 PM
Other than Rheal Cormier and Mike Stanton, how many contracts has Castellini 'eaten' because of Krivsky?

Don't get me wrong--I think bad contracts were a factor in his firing, but it's not like he was the guy who paid Eric Milton, Jason LaRue, Dave Williams, etc.

Hat in 2008 was something that Cast had to eat. One of Wayne's big weaknesses was that he did not know when to cut a player loose. That's a recurring thread in several of his mistakes.. Ross and Freel were extended for more money than they should have been.

Castro was another contract that Cast had to eat.
Ross was released in 2008. Cast had to eat that.
I guess technically, there were several mistakes that were allowed to play out their contracts and not technically be eaten. Entering 2008 though, there was quite a bit of bad contracts/decisions on the roster. Much more than Wayne inherited.

REDREAD
01-05-2011, 01:25 PM
Where was he handcuffed? Why did those teams stink so bad in the 1st place? They had no pitching, they were terrible on defense and for as much publicity as their offense got they were limited there as well (swing for the fences, feast or famine types).
[quote]

Well, that feast or famine offense in 2005 led the league in runs scored.
In the end, isn't runs scored the primary indicator of how well an offense works?

The other point I was trying to make was that Wayne improved the team a lot in 2006, yet then let the team decline. You say Wayne inherited a bad team. Well, when he left, the team had a worse run differential than when he arrived.

Wayne's method of collecting lotto tickets worked on Hamilton and Phillips and Arroyo.. Ok.. I will say it worked for Hat for 2 out of 3 years too. But on just about every major transaction afterwards, it failed miserably.

As Edabbs said, he was given a mediocre team in 2005, added Hamilton, Phillips, and Arroyo for practically nothing, and was given a lot of money, yet the team's W-L record and run differential declined. His plan failed.

It's pretty amazing how bad the team got from 2006 to 2007, despite getting Hamilton and an unexpected great year out of Burton. Wayne was trying to improve pitching, but the plan obviously failed.



[quote]
And the culture on the team was horrible due to all the years of losing prior to it.


And WAyne chased out a lot of good front office people by rubbing them the wrong way.
He did nothing to improve culture, other than getting rid of some of DanO's idiotic minor league rules.



If Wayne thought he could actually win with that team he wouldn't have dealt them away (in most cases) or attempted to (in others). And yet some can't see this, they focus on the Cormiers and Stantons, tragic.


I totally disagree.. Stanton and Cormier prove that Wayne was trying to go "all in" and win it all.

Mario-Rijo
01-05-2011, 01:27 PM
I'm still confused as to what was improved. I think the perception of the team that some had was improved. But the major league product from 2006-2008 was not. Even with some great acquisitions, opening of a checkbook and youngsters hitting the show.

Well again it was a transition period and it wasn't about just the major league team at the time but the entire organization. Gaining pitching was job one I.E. Arroyo, Volquez, Cordero, Burton, Bray, Thompson, etc. and blending those guys with Harang, and the youngsters when they got here. I assume this was the reason for signing Cordero to a 4 year deal in the 1st place with Harang and Arroyo extended out to 3 years.

REDREAD
01-05-2011, 01:33 PM
I agree with you about Cordero, but I suspect Krivsky made a lot of moves with culture and leadership in mind.
Bronson Arroyo
Juan Castro
Eddie Guardado
Rheal Cormier
Todd Hollandsworth
Quinton McCracken
Jeff Conine
Joe Mays
Mark Bellhorn
Scott Hatteberg
Mike Stanton

. . . and others. Of course, aside from Arroyo, Hatteberg, and Guradado, these were some of Krivsky's worst moves in the eyes of RedsZone.

Honestly, I think culture had nothing to do with all these moves.
They were all players that he was able to acquire at what he percieved to be a good value. In all seriousness (other than Arroyo), that's like saying picking up Hermida and Gomes were done to improve culture.. The main reason they were picked up is because they are percieved to be good risks to outproduce what they cost.

Wayne would've done Pena for another pitcher had Arroyo not been available.
That was something that DanO could not fanthom.. having Pena as a bench player was really underutilizing a resource which was better traded. I give Wayne credit for that.

REDREAD
01-05-2011, 01:40 PM
Well again it was a transition period and it wasn't about just the major league team at the time but the entire organization. Gaining pitching was job one I.E. Arroyo, Volquez, Cordero, Burton, Bray, Thompson, etc. and blending those guys with Harang, and the youngsters when they got here. I assume this was the reason for signing Cordero to a 4 year deal in the 1st place with Harang and Arroyo extended out to 3 years.

That doesn't explain a lot of the "win now" moves that Wayne was did.
I don't think there was a clear direction, and that was part of the problem.
Kearns and Felipe for Bray and Maj was justified as a rebuilding move to cut salary.. ok, but this was in a pennant race.. and after the Reds just picked up a couple million for Cormier, added some salary for Guarardo, etc. Let's be honest.. Maj and Bray was a "win now" move and was only spun as rebuilding because it failed so miserably.

Wayne was clearly attempting to do a lot of patching/acqusions to make the team win now.. Trading prospects for Conine, picking up Lohse, etc.

I know people will roll their eyes at this, but Burton and Hamilton were opportunity Rule Vpicks. Great picks, but it's kind of crazy to have a plan where you think you are going to be able to get a starting CF and setup man out of the rule V draft. In any event, Burton pretty much gave us one good year and fell off the face of the earth. Thompson has done nothing yet.

Mario-Rijo
01-05-2011, 01:44 PM
[QUOTE=Mario-Rijo;2311849]Where was he handcuffed? Why did those teams stink so bad in the 1st place? They had no pitching, they were terrible on defense and for as much publicity as their offense got they were limited there as well (swing for the fences, feast or famine types).



Well, that feast or famine offense in 2005 led the league in runs scored.
In the end, isn't runs scored the primary indicator of how well an offense works?

If you think so run with it, I would disagree. Is the best offense one that scored the most or the one who could score what it needed when it needed it? The fact there is alot more mediocre/poor pitching than there is good can allow for a team that isn't the best offense score alot against said crap pitching and eat it against good pitching.


The other point I was trying to make was that Wayne improved the team a lot in 2006, yet then let the team decline. You say Wayne inherited a bad team. Well, when he left, the team had a worse run differential than when he arrived.

Again you keep harping on the major league product, Waynes job was to progress the entire organization. He did that and he did that quite well, it's not his fault his Boss didn't have the ability to decipher the difference himself.


Wayne's method of collecting lotto tickets worked on Hamilton and Phillips and Arroyo.. Ok.. I will say it worked for Hat for 2 out of 3 years too. But on just about every major transaction afterwards, it failed miserably.

As Edabbs said, he was given a mediocre team in 2005, added Hamilton, Phillips, and Arroyo for practically nothing, and was given a lot of money, yet the team's W-L record and run differential declined. His plan failed.

It's pretty amazing how bad the team got from 2006 to 2007, despite getting Hamilton and an unexpected great year out of Burton. Wayne was trying to improve pitching, but the plan obviously failed.



If the way you measure progress is W-L in a short time frame you will never be satisified.



And WAyne chased out a lot of good front office people by rubbing them the wrong way.
He did nothing to improve culture, other than getting rid of some of DanO's idiotic minor league rules.

Reaching aren't we? He got rid of alot of guys only interested in their own numbers.


I totally disagree.. Stanton and Cormier prove that Wayne was trying to go "all in" and win it all.

Let's see what is more reasonable to believe that Mike Stanton and Rheal Cormier are proof of trying to keep the team from hitting rock bottom or proof he was trying to go all in? I'd have to go with the former.

Mario-Rijo
01-05-2011, 01:54 PM
That doesn't explain a lot of the "win now" moves that Wayne was did.
I don't think there was a clear direction, and that was part of the problem.
Kearns and Felipe for Bray and Maj was justified as a rebuilding move to cut salary.. ok, but this was in a pennant race.. and after the Reds just picked up a couple million for Cormier, added some salary for Guarardo, etc. Let's be honest.. Maj and Bray was a "win now" move and was only spun as rebuilding because it failed so miserably.

Wayne was clearly attempting to do a lot of patching/acqusions to make the team win now.. Trading prospects for Conine, picking up Lohse, etc.

I know people will roll their eyes at this, but Burton and Hamilton were opportunity Rule Vpicks. Great picks, but it's kind of crazy to have a plan where you think you are going to be able to get a starting CF and setup man out of the rule V draft. In any event, Burton pretty much gave us one good year and fell off the face of the earth. Thompson has done nothing yet.

If you say so. Clearly you want to see things this way so I'm done talking about it.

REDREAD
01-05-2011, 02:36 PM
If you say so. Clearly you want to see things this way so I'm done talking about it.

I wasn't trying to annoy you or try to win you over.. This is about the only live thread on the forum, and it's been slow at work the last week.. Thanks for the conversation though.

camisadelgolf
01-07-2011, 11:06 AM
For anyone who wants to look at it, here's a comparison of the players acquired and let go by Jocketty and Krivsky.

edit1:
Oops. I just noticed some errors. This'll be back soon.

edit2:
I messed up Sun-Woo Kim's stats, but they're corrected now. Hopefully that was the only error.
Anyway, it's back now:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArL6p8BSK8x2dDMxZENRdEk3TE9xUXg0YmZqVnZJR lE&hl=en

KRIVSKY HERE
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
BrandonPhillips 756 3229 2955 430 814 141 24 106 404 121 41 197 448 0.275 0.326 0.447 0.773 1321 93 37 14 26 17
Scott Hatteberg 291 1017 869 115 253 58 1 23 105 2 3 130 83 0.291 0.384 0.440 0.823 382 21 6 3 9 9
Dave Ross 254 817 692 86 157 34 1 41 104 0 1 99 203 0.227 0.324 0.457 0.780 316 16 4 14 8 15
Drew Stubbs 192 779 694 118 179 24 7 30 94 40 10 70 217 0.258 0.328 0.442 0.770 307 7 5 4 6 2
Jeff Keppinger 188 778 700 84 202 40 4 8 75 5 2 54 36 0.289 0.342 0.391 0.733 274 25 6 12 6 3
Alex Gonzalez 178 700 636 71 158 39 1 19 81 0 2 39 111 0.248 0.299 0.403 0.702 256 16 10 8 7 5
Jerry Hairston 166 637 568 94 163 38 3 14 63 22 6 44 82 0.287 0.342 0.438 0.780 249 2 6 14 5 0
Corey Patterson 135 392 366 46 75 17 2 10 34 14 9 16 57 0.205 0.238 0.344 0.582 126 3 1 5 4 0
Paul Bako 99 338 299 30 65 11 2 6 35 0 2 34 90 0.217 0.299 0.328 0.626 98 9 1 3 1 5
Josh Hamilton 90 337 298 52 87 17 2 19 47 3 3 33 65 0.292 0.368 0.554 0.922 165 6 4 0 2 4
Jeff Conine 80 242 215 23 57 11 1 6 32 4 0 20 28 0.265 0.320 0.409 0.729 88 4 0 1 6 0
Chris Heisey 97 226 201 33 51 10 1 8 21 1 2 16 57 0.254 0.324 0.433 0.757 87 3 6 1 2 1
Juan Castro 115 209 194 14 43 10 1 2 19 0 1 10 34 0.222 0.277 0.314 0.592 61 2 0 3 2 0
Royce Clayton 50 164 149 13 35 8 0 2 13 6 3 11 32 0.235 0.290 0.329 0.619 49 3 1 2 1 0
Jolbert Cabrera 48 126 115 17 29 6 1 3 12 2 0 8 29 0.252 0.310 0.400 0.710 46 3 2 0 1 1
ToddHollndswrth 34 74 68 6 18 6 0 1 8 0 1 6 19 0.265 0.324 0.397 0.721 27 1 0 0 0 0
Jorge Cantu 27 68 57 8 17 8 0 1 9 0 0 7 10 0.298 0.382 0.491 0.874 28 3 2 0 2 0
QuintonMcCrackn 45 60 53 5 11 1 1 1 2 2 0 4 9 0.208 0.263 0.321 0.584 17 1 0 3 0 0
Jason Ellison 37 56 48 7 9 1 0 1 2 1 0 5 15 0.188 0.278 0.271 0.549 13 0 1 2 0 0
Chad Moeller 30 49 48 6 8 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 17 0.167 0.167 0.250 0.417 12 2 0 1 0 0
Pedro Lopez 14 47 45 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 0.178 0.213 0.222 0.435 10 0 1 0 0 0
Chris Valaika 19 40 38 3 10 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 9 0.263 0.282 0.368 0.650 14 2 0 1 0 0
Buck Coats 20 38 34 2 7 4 0 0 2 0 0 3 15 0.206 0.263 0.324 0.587 11 1 0 0 1 0
Kevin Barker 29 36 32 2 9 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 9 0.281 0.333 0.375 0.708 12 2 0 0 1 1
Andy Phillips 15 23 21 1 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 2 4 0.143 0.217 0.190 0.408 4 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Bellhorn 13 18 14 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 5 0.071 0.278 0.071 0.349 1 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Jorgensen 4 15 15 3 3 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 5 0.200 0.200 0.600 0.800 9 0 0 0 0 0
Brendan Harris 8 11 10 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 4 0.200 0.273 0.500 0.773 5 1 0 0 0 0
Cody Ross 2 5 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.400 1 0 0 0 0 0
Enrique Cruz 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jerry Gil 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3038 10532 9440 1274 2475 492 52 306 1181 223 86 818 1705 0.262 0.324 0.423 0.747 3989 226 93 91 90 63

W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Bronson Arroyo 70 60 0.538 3.97 169 169 0 10 3 0 1087.3 1075 519 480 148 319 26 751 39 1 18 4587 1.282 8.9 1.2 2.6 6.2 2.35
Edinson Volquez 25 11 0.694 3.62 54 53 1 0 0 0 308.3 260 137 124 26 160 5 320 22 2 17 1331 1.362 7.6 0.8 4.7 9.3 2.00
FranciscoCordro 13 15 0.464 3.13 215 0 186 0 0 113 209.7 187 81 73 13 104 6 195 5 0 8 899 1.388 8.0 0.6 4.5 8.4 1.88
Kyle Lohse 9 17 0.346 4.58 33 32 1 2 1 0 194.7 213 109 99 23 52 3 131 6 0 5 832 1.361 9.8 1.1 2.4 6.1 2.52
Jared Burton 10 3 0.769 3.40 158 0 39 0 0 0 164.3 145 69 62 13 70 13 140 8 2 7 708 1.308 7.9 0.7 3.8 7.7 2.00
Bill Bray 7 8 0.467 3.91 146 0 26 0 0 3 117.3 120 58 51 12 48 8 121 1 0 4 518 1.432 9.2 0.9 3.7 9.3 2.52
Mike Lincoln 4 6 0.400 5.73 102 0 25 0 0 0 113.0 120 74 72 18 53 3 78 9 0 5 506 1.531 9.6 1.4 4.2 6.2 1.47
DanielRayHrrera 5 7 0.417 3.62 113 0 16 0 0 0 92.0 104 47 37 8 33 4 66 4 0 1 403 1.489 10.2 0.8 3.2 6.5 2.00
Gary Majewski 2 6 0.250 7.38 88 0 18 0 0 0 78.0 134 67 64 10 22 3 46 8 0 1 384 2.000 15.5 1.2 2.5 5.3 2.09
Josh Fogg 2 7 0.222 7.58 22 14 3 0 0 0 78.3 97 69 66 17 27 1 45 6 0 1 362 1.583 11.1 2.0 3.1 5.2 1.67
Jeremy Affeldt 1 1 0.500 3.33 74 0 20 0 0 0 78.3 78 36 29 9 25 0 80 3 0 6 335 1.315 9.0 1.0 2.9 9.2 3.20
Mike Stanton 1 3 0.250 5.93 69 0 11 0 0 0 57.7 75 39 38 6 18 2 40 5 0 1 263 1.613 11.7 0.9 2.8 6.2 2.22
Matt Maloney 4 6 0.400 4.26 14 9 0 0 0 0 61.3 63 29 29 11 13 2 41 4 0 0 256 1.239 9.2 1.6 1.9 6.0 3.15
BobbyLivingston 3 3 0.500 5.27 10 10 0 0 0 0 56.3 77 35 33 8 8 0 27 1 1 2 250 1.509 12.3 1.3 1.3 4.3 3.38
Victor Santos 1 4 0.200 5.14 32 0 12 0 0 0 49.0 51 28 28 10 23 5 44 2 0 2 216 1.510 9.4 1.8 4.2 8.1 1.91
Kirk Saarloos 1 5 0.167 7.17 34 3 7 0 0 0 42.7 54 36 34 8 19 1 27 3 0 1 201 1.711 11.4 1.7 4.0 5.7 1.42
Jon Coutlangus 4 2 0.667 4.39 64 0 9 0 0 0 41.0 38 22 20 3 27 0 38 4 0 6 187 1.585 8.3 0.7 5.9 8.3 1.41
Jordan Smith 3 2 0.600 3.86 37 0 15 0 0 1 42.0 45 18 18 7 11 1 26 2 0 1 179 1.333 9.6 1.5 2.4 5.6 2.36
Mike Gosling 2 0 1.000 5.24 24 0 7 0 0 0 34.3 43 24 20 6 29 8 33 2 0 1 171 2.097 11.3 1.6 7.6 8.7 1.14
Chris Michalak 2 4 0.333 4.89 8 6 0 0 0 0 35.0 42 21 19 6 16 2 10 3 1 1 162 1.657 10.8 1.5 4.1 2.6 0.63
Joey Mays 0 1 0.000 7.33 7 4 0 0 0 0 27.0 40 23 22 4 12 2 16 0 0 3 130 1.926 13.3 1.3 4.0 5.3 1.33
Eddie Guardado 0 0 4.23 30 0 13 0 0 8 27.7 31 16 13 4 6 1 25 2 0 0 120 1.337 10.1 1.3 2.0 8.1 4.17
Ryan Franklin 5 2 0.714 4.44 20 0 6 0 0 0 24.3 27 14 12 3 16 6 18 0 0 1 110 1.767 10.0 1.1 5.9 6.7 1.13
Marcus McBeth 3 2 0.600 5.95 23 0 7 0 0 0 19.7 22 13 13 2 7 1 17 1 0 2 88 1.475 10.1 0.9 3.2 7.8 2.43
Rheal Cormier 0 1 0.000 5.29 27 0 8 0 0 0 17.0 25 10 10 4 5 0 7 1 0 0 80 1.765 13.2 2.1 2.6 3.7 1.40
Josh Roenicke 0 0 3.86 16 0 2 0 0 0 16.3 19 7 7 0 6 0 20 1 0 1 72 1.531 10.5 0.0 3.3 11.0 3.33
Daryl Thompson 0 2 0.000 6.91 3 3 0 0 0 0 14.3 20 11 11 3 7 0 6 1 1 1 69 1.884 12.6 1.9 4.4 3.8 0.86
Esteban Yan 1 0 1.000 3.60 14 0 4 0 0 1 15.0 13 7 6 4 7 2 8 0 0 1 63 1.333 7.8 2.4 4.2 4.8 1.14
ScottSchoenweis 2 0 1.000 0.63 16 0 8 0 0 3 14.3 9 1 1 1 8 1 11 1 0 1 60 1.186 5.7 0.6 5.0 6.9 1.38
Jason Johnson 0 0 3.12 4 0 0 0 0 0 8.7 11 5 3 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 38 1.269 11.4 1.0 0.0 4.2
Sun-Woo Kim 0 1 0.000 5.40 2 1 0 0 0 0 6.7 7 4 4 3 0 0 4 0 0 2 28 1.050 9.5 4.1 0.0 5.4
Adam Pettyjohn 0 1 0.000 20.25 3 1 1 0 0 0 4.0 11 9 9 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 26 3.250 24.8 4.5 4.5 2.3 0.50
Ricky Stone 0 0 10.13 5 0 3 0 0 0 5.3 7 6 6 4 0 0 3 1 0 0 23 1.313 11.8 6.8 0.0 5.1
Robert Manuel 0 0 0.00 3 0 1 0 0 0 4.3 5 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 18 1.385 10.4 0.0 2.1 4.2 2.00
180 180 0.500 4.33 1639 305 449 12 4 129 3145.3 3268 1644 1513 397 1154 107 2401 147 8 100 13675 1.406 9.4 1.1 3.3 6.9 2.08

KRIVSKY GONE
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Felipe Lopez 632 2644 2353 274 639 122 14 34 212 67 31 245 432 0.272 0.341 0.379 0.720 891 39 12 19 15 8
Cody Ross 606 2155 1968 268 523 124 10 83 304 22 6 146 458 0.266 0.323 0.465 0.788 916 42 28 1 12 10
Austin Kearns 510 1964 1722 232 417 84 5 44 208 11 9 225 386 0.242 0.347 0.373 0.721 643 56 40 1 9 10
Jorge Cantu 431 1843 1685 209 464 112 1 56 251 9 3 116 287 0.275 0.327 0.443 0.770 746 45 22 1 19 11
Josh Hamilton 378 1640 1478 236 466 94 10 74 284 25 5 131 300 0.315 0.372 0.543 0.915 802 24 13 1 17 16
Brendan Harris 433 1639 1477 184 389 89 7 26 149 5 4 119 295 0.263 0.321 0.386 0.707 570 50 13 16 14 1
Rich Aurilia 299 931 858 83 224 42 3 17 101 1 1 60 125 0.261 0.310 0.376 0.687 323 24 5 0 8 6
Wily Mo Pena 258 827 760 88 196 34 3 26 91 2 3 52 232 0.258 0.311 0.413 0.724 314 19 9 0 6 2
Jason LaRue 207 559 493 44 96 21 1 12 45 2 0 40 115 0.195 0.272 0.314 0.587 155 18 14 8 4 1
Dewayne Wise 193 414 383 57 92 15 7 11 43 17 5 15 88 0.240 0.278 0.402 0.680 154 7 6 8 2 0
Chris Denorfia 132 390 348 52 95 18 2 10 46 10 4 33 67 0.273 0.339 0.422 0.761 147 8 3 3 3 3
Chad Moeller 87 227 202 23 48 17 1 3 19 0 0 15 39 0.238 0.305 0.381 0.686 76 6 6 1 3 1
Matt Kata 118 219 208 23 45 10 1 3 21 2 0 5 38 0.216 0.244 0.317 0.562 66 6 3 2 1 0
Royce Clayton 77 216 195 24 48 14 0 1 12 2 1 14 53 0.246 0.296 0.333 0.629 65 10 1 3 3 0
Jeff Conine 33 123 116 9 33 2 0 3 9 2 1 6 7 0.284 0.317 0.379 0.696 44 6 0 0 1 0
Dane Sardinha 42 123 114 8 18 3 1 3 14 0 0 5 40 0.158 0.190 0.281 0.471 32 3 0 2 2 0
Jeff Fiorentino 26 76 65 8 19 1 0 0 9 2 0 8 16 0.292 0.360 0.308 0.668 20 1 0 1 2 0
Tony Womack 19 57 50 6 14 1 0 1 2 1 1 4 4 0.280 0.333 0.360 0.693 18 0 0 3 0 0
Terrence Long 12 40 36 6 6 1 0 0 2 0 0 4 8 0.167 0.250 0.194 0.444 7 0 0 0 0 0
Brandon Watson 5 19 18 2 5 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 1 0.278 0.316 0.333 0.649 6 0 0 0 0 1
Jason Ellison 9 14 13 5 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0.231 0.286 0.231 0.516 3 0 0 0 0 0
Buck Coats 8 6 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0.200 0.333 0.200 0.533 1 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Jorgensen 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0
J.C. Boscan 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 0
4518 16128 14548 1842 3841 805 66 407 1826 182 74 1247 2994 0.264 0.328 0.412 0.740 5999 364 175 70 121 70

W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Kyle Lohse 28 24 0.538 4.88 87 84 0 1 1 0 470.7 529 265 255 49 144 9 292 15 1 9 2050 1.430 10.1 0.9 2.8 5.6 2.03
Ryan Franklin 20 15 0.571 3.04 264 0 152 0 0 83 284.7 262 100 96 27 75 8 181 11 0 11 1177 1.184 8.3 0.9 2.4 5.7 2.41
Justin Germano 7 16 0.304 4.58 61 30 11 0 0 0 212.3 214 118 108 28 61 6 124 15 0 5 906 1.295 9.1 1.2 2.6 5.3 2.03
ScottSchoenweis 4 10 0.286 4.99 203 0 44 0 0 3 153.3 165 91 85 23 74 13 102 9 1 7 693 1.559 9.7 1.4 4.3 6.0 1.38
Luke Hudson 7 7 0.500 5.37 27 16 1 0 0 0 104.0 111 67 62 8 42 1 64 4 0 6 453 1.471 9.6 0.7 3.6 5.5 1.52
Eddie Guardado 5 6 0.455 4.28 112 0 25 0 0 4 94.7 89 47 45 12 34 3 53 2 0 2 393 1.299 8.5 1.1 3.2 5.0 1.56
Josh Hancock 3 4 0.429 4.01 70 0 19 0 0 1 89.7 84 43 40 11 28 2 59 1 1 4 379 1.249 8.4 1.1 2.8 5.9 2.11
Mike Burns 3 5 0.375 5.61 22 8 8 0 0 0 59.3 70 40 37 10 18 3 46 1 0 1 261 1.483 10.6 1.5 2.7 7.0 2.56
Ryan Wagner 3 5 0.375 5.05 40 0 7 0 0 0 46.3 56 32 26 5 23 5 29 2 1 4 214 1.705 10.9 1.0 4.5 5.6 1.26
Dave Williams 3 2 0.600 7.83 8 6 2 0 0 0 33.3 51 29 29 7 9 2 18 2 0 2 155 1.800 13.8 1.9 2.4 4.9 2.00
Jeff Stevens 1 0 1.000 6.53 29 0 5 0 0 0 30.3 35 25 22 6 18 1 24 1 0 3 143 1.747 10.4 1.8 5.3 7.1 1.33
Jason Johnson 1 2 0.333 5.22 16 2 5 0 0 0 29.3 32 19 17 5 12 3 20 2 0 3 130 1.500 9.8 1.5 3.7 6.1 1.67
Kirk Saarloos 1 0 1.000 5.47 8 1 1 0 0 0 26.3 37 17 16 2 4 1 12 0 0 0 118 1.557 12.6 0.7 1.4 4.1 3.00
Mike Gosling 0 0 5.04 15 0 7 0 0 0 25.0 30 15 14 5 11 1 13 0 0 0 114 1.640 10.8 1.8 4.0 4.7 1.18
Eric Milton 2 1 0.667 3.80 5 5 0 0 0 0 23.7 30 12 10 2 6 0 20 2 0 0 108 1.521 11.4 0.8 2.3 7.6 3.33
Marcos Mateo 0 1 0.000 5.82 21 0 5 0 0 0 21.7 20 15 14 6 9 1 26 1 0 1 93 1.338 8.3 2.5 3.7 10.8 2.89
Victor Santos 0 2 0.000 8.16 4 3 0 0 0 0 14.3 20 13 13 5 10 1 4 1 0 1 68 2.093 12.6 3.1 6.3 2.5 0.40
Carlos Guevara 1 0 1.000 5.84 10 0 6 0 0 0 12.3 13 9 8 2 9 2 11 0 0 3 60 1.784 9.5 1.5 6.6 8.0 1.22
JasonStandridge 0 1 0.000 8.22 4 0 2 0 0 0 7.7 11 10 7 2 5 2 6 0 0 0 41 2.087 12.9 2.3 5.9 7.0 1.20
Robert Coello 0 0 4.76 6 0 2 0 0 0 5.7 4 3 3 0 5 0 5 0 0 1 26 1.588 6.4 0.0 7.9 7.9 1.00
Mike Venafro 1 0 1.000 2.45 7 0 0 0 0 0 3.7 3 1 1 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 15 1.636 7.4 0.0 7.4 4.9 0.67
90 101 0.471 4.67 1019 155 302 1 1 91 1748.3 1866 971 908 215 600 64 1111 69 4 63 7597 1.410 9.6 1.1 3.1 5.7 1.85

JOCKETTY HERE
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Jonny Gomes 246 885 792 116 211 41 3 38 137 8 4 65 208 0.266 0.331 0.470 0.801 372 12 17 0 11 5
Scott Rolen 173 699 608 90 171 41 4 23 107 2 4 69 102 0.281 0.359 0.475 0.834 289 14 11 0 11 3
Ramon Hernandez 178 683 600 55 167 31 2 12 85 1 0 62 83 0.278 0.351 0.397 0.747 238 15 8 7 6 3
Orlando Cabrera 123 537 494 64 130 33 0 4 42 11 4 28 53 0.263 0.303 0.354 0.657 175 11 3 5 7 0
Laynce Nix 213 519 474 58 122 37 3 19 64 0 2 37 120 0.257 0.311 0.468 0.780 222 10 2 2 4 7
Willy Taveras 102 437 404 56 97 11 2 1 15 25 6 18 58 0.240 0.275 0.285 0.559 115 2 2 11 2 0
Corky Miller 53 148 130 9 28 6 0 3 19 0 0 11 30 0.240 0.275 0.285 0.559 43 3 3 3 1 0
WladimirBalntin 40 125 110 12 29 7 1 3 11 1 1 15 27 0.264 0.352 0.427 0.779 47 1 0 0 0 0
DarnellMcDonald 47 111 105 12 28 6 1 2 10 1 0 5 31 0.267 0.306 0.400 0.706 42 4 1 0 0 0
Andy Phillips 37 57 52 10 14 2 0 3 6 0 0 4 10 0.269 0.333 0.481 0.814 25 3 1 0 0 0
Danny Richar 23 46 44 5 10 2 0 0 3 1 0 1 10 0.227 0.244 0.273 0.517 12 1 0 1 0 0
Wilkin Castillo 22 37 35 6 11 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 5 0.314 0.333 0.343 0.676 12 0 0 1 0 0
Jim Edmonds 13 32 29 6 6 2 0 3 3 0 0 3 7 0.207 0.281 0.586 0.867 17 0 0 0 0 0
Yonder Alonso 22 29 29 2 6 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 10 0.207 0.207 0.276 0.483 8 1 0 0 0 0
WillieBlomquist 11 18 17 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0.294 0.333 0.294 0.627 5 0 0 0 0 0
1303 4363 3923 501 1035 222 16 111 507 50 21 320 757 0.264 0.324 0.413 0.737 1622 77 48 30 42 18

W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Micah Owings 10 14 0.417 5.35 48 19 13 0 0 1 153.0 154 95 91 21 89 3 103 9 1 2 695 1.588 9.1 1.2 5.2 6.1 1.16
Nick Masset 10 5 0.667 2.81 166 0 38 0 0 2 170.0 134 59 53 16 62 3 166 1 0 15 682 1.153 7.1 0.8 3.3 8.8 2.68
Mike Leake 8 4 0.667 4.23 24 22 0 0 0 0 138.3 158 77 65 19 49 2 91 3 0 2 604 1.496 10.3 1.2 3.2 5.9 1.86
Arthur Rhodes 5 5 0.500 2.41 135 0 18 0 0 0 108.3 75 30 29 7 38 3 98 2 0 2 432 1.043 6.2 0.6 3.2 8.1 2.58
Justin Lehr 5 3 0.625 5.37 11 11 0 1 1 0 65.3 72 39 39 14 28 1 33 3 0 3 286 1.531 9.9 1.9 3.9 4.5 1.18
Kip Wells 2 3 0.400 4.66 10 7 1 0 0 0 46.3 37 24 24 5 22 0 25 5 0 0 197 1.273 7.2 1.0 4.3 4.9 1.14
Aroldis Chapman 2 2 0.500 2.03 15 0 3 0 0 0 13.3 9 4 3 0 5 0 19 0 0 2 51 1.050 6.1 0.0 3.4 12.8 3.80
Russ Springer 0 0 5.40 2 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 1.200 10.8 0.0 0.0 5.4
42 36 0.538 3.94 411 59 73 1 1 3 696.3 641 329 305 82 293 12 536 23 1 26 2954 1.341 8.3 1.1 3.8 6.9 1.83

JOCKETTY GONE
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Jeff Keppinger 244 919 819 97 226 47 4 13 88 4 3 78 69 0.276 0.340 0.391 0.730 320 28 4 12 6 4
Adam Dunn 203 855 690 102 181 38 0 46 131 1 1 158 221 0.262 0.402 0.517 0.920 357 11 5 0 2 23
Alex Gonzalez 201 799 743 100 191 52 3 28 103 3 2 36 147 0.257 0.298 0.448 0.746 333 20 9 7 4 2
Ken Griffey Jr. 158 604 518 60 117 29 0 22 75 0 0 80 105 0.226 0.329 0.409 0.739 212 12 2 0 4 3
Jerry Hairston 164 569 506 68 123 18 2 12 62 9 7 42 62 0.243 0.307 0.358 0.665 181 6 8 6 7 2
EdwinEncrnacion 138 540 486 72 118 21 1 29 74 2 0 42 89 0.243 0.306 0.469 0.775 228 11 5 0 7 1
Juan Castro 166 427 392 40 87 15 0 3 38 0 1 24 76 0.222 0.265 0.283 0.548 111 11 1 5 5 1
Corey Patterson 106 370 337 43 86 16 1 8 32 23 5 20 88 0.255 0.298 0.380 0.678 128 4 1 11 1 2
DarnellMcDonald 117 363 319 40 86 18 3 9 34 9 1 30 85 0.270 0.336 0.429 0.766 137 5 2 12 0 1
Dave Ross 121 305 257 34 71 22 2 9 48 0 1 41 70 0.276 0.377 0.482 0.860 124 6 2 3 2 0
Adam Rosales 80 279 255 31 69 8 2 7 31 2 2 19 65 0.271 0.321 0.400 0.721 102 1 1 2 2 0
Aaron Miles 79 151 139 14 39 5 0 0 9 0 1 6 14 0.281 0.311 0.317 0.627 44 1 1 3 2 1
Paul Bako 44 130 116 12 26 4 0 3 9 0 1 13 32 0.224 0.308 0.336 0.644 39 2 1 0 0 2
Craig Tatum 43 126 114 11 32 4 0 0 9 1 0 12 21 0.281 0.349 0.316 0.665 36 5 0 0 0 0
Ryan Freel 41 101 88 11 17 2 0 0 5 1 0 11 23 0.193 0.290 0.216 0.506 19 1 1 1 0 0
Chris Dickerson 25 61 53 2 11 1 1 0 5 1 0 5 15 0.208 0.271 0.264 0.535 14 0 0 2 1 0
Justin Turner 21 40 35 3 4 1 0 0 3 0 0 5 6 0.114 0.225 0.143 0.368 5 1 0 0 0 0
Drew Sutton 11 39 36 4 8 1 0 1 4 0 0 3 12 0.222 0.282 0.333 0.615 12 1 0 0 0 0
Willy Taveras 27 37 35 7 7 0 1 0 4 1 2 2 6 0.200 0.243 0.257 0.500 9 0 0 0 0 0
Andy Green 4 5 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.250 0.400 0.250 0.650 1 0 0 0 0 0
Andy Phillips 4 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.400 1 0 0 0 0 0
1997 6725 5947 752 1501 302 20 190 764 57 27 628 1207 0.252 0.326 0.406 0.732 2413 126 43 64 43 42

W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Josh Roenicke 1 0 1.000 6.38 29 0 6 0 0 0 36.7 37 30 26 3 25 1 37 3 0 2 175 1.691 9.1 0.7 6.1 9.1 1.48
Robert Manuel 1 0 1.000 4.26 10 0 6 0 0 0 12.7 10 6 6 5 7 1 5 0 0 0 54 1.342 7.1 3.6 5.0 3.6 0.71
Gary Majewski 0 0 22.50 2 0 2 0 0 0 2.0 5 5 5 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 13 3.000 22.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 1.00
Justin James 0 0 4.50 5 0 3 0 0 0 4.0 7 2 2 0 4 0 5 1 0 0 23 2.750 15.8 0.0 9.0 11.3 1.25
Jeremy Affeldt 6 5 0.545 2.80 127 0 22 0 0 4 112.3 98 39 35 7 55 8 99 6 0 9 476 1.362 7.9 0.6 4.4 7.9 1.80
Josh Fogg 0 2 0.000 3.74 24 1 9 0 0 0 45.7 32 20 19 7 20 1 27 1 0 3 187 1.139 6.3 1.4 3.9 5.3 1.35
David Patton 3 1 0.750 6.83 20 0 5 0 0 0 27.7 31 22 21 4 19 2 23 0 0 3 134 1.807 10.1 1.3 6.2 7.5 1.21
Dave Weathers 1 3 0.250 4.88 25 0 4 0 0 0 24.0 26 15 13 3 11 1 10 2 0 0 107 1.542 9.8 1.1 4.1 3.8 0.91
EnerioDelRosrio 0 0 20.25 2 0 1 0 0 0 1.3 4 3 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 9 3.000 27.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
Todd Coffey 5 4 0.556 2.67 87 0 20 0 0 2 91.0 82 28 27 8 23 3 72 3 0 1 365 1.154 8.1 0.8 2.3 7.1 3.13
Matt Belisle 10 6 0.625 3.59 100 0 17 0 0 1 123.0 119 55 49 13 21 6 113 3 1 4 498 1.138 8.7 1.0 1.5 8.3 5.38
27 21 0.563 3.86 431 1 95 0 0 7 480.3 451 225 206 51 186 23 393 20 1 22 2041 1.326 8.5 4.5 8.2 2.2 2.11

TRF
01-07-2011, 11:15 AM
why did this need a new thread?

camisadelgolf
01-07-2011, 11:20 AM
why did this need a new thread?
I suppose it didn't 'need' a new thread, but it's a completely different set of stats. It's also a nice chance to start with a clean slate since the thread about WAR ventured into other topics. If any moderator feels it belongs in the thread about WAR, it certainly won't hurt my feelings.