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Hondo
12-27-2010, 04:51 PM
Hey guys,

I have wrote about Greinke, Reyes, Justin Upton, and Now I will write about BJ Upton...

I think the guy has a lot of skills... Power/Speed... K's way too much though... but posts a .345 OBP for his career... Last 2 years have been belove avergae .313 & .322 in 2009 & 2010... But in 2007-2008 had a .386 & .383...

Rays need a 1B... Rays need to shed payroll... Upton 3 Million in 2010 will get a bump in the 5-6 Million Range...

I think he would be a good player to acquire...

Yonder Alonso for BJ Upton striaght up... I think the Trade helps both Teams...

Reds get a LF who can Lead off...

brm7675
12-27-2010, 06:14 PM
Rays are going to want proven talent, Yonder to this point has not shown enough to warren them getting just him. I could see Yonder and maybe either a Leake or Wood, which if the case i wouldn't do. I would go with maybe Fransico/Bailey for him...

Hondo
12-27-2010, 06:23 PM
Rays are going to want proven talent, Yonder to this point has not shown enough to warren them getting just him. I could see Yonder and maybe either a Leake or Wood, which if the case i wouldn't do. I would go with maybe Fransico/Bailey for him...

I wouldnt trade Leake or Wood for him but I think Alonso would get it done... A payroll slashing move for the Rays for sure and get a replacement possibly for Pena at 1st Base in Alonso...

Do you think Upton would be a good addition? For left field and lead off?

Pony Boy
12-27-2010, 06:24 PM
I wouldn't trade Yonder straight up for BJ Upton. Too light of a hitter to play a corner OF position and we have a better CF in Stubbs. We should be targeting a player with more bat and less glove than Upton.

Hondo
12-27-2010, 06:26 PM
I wouldn't trade Yonder straight up for BJ Upton. Too light of a hitter to play a corner OF position and we have a better CF in Stubbs. We should be targeting a player with more bat and less glove than Upton.

I was skimming the teams for players available... BJ Upton has some upside... He hit 24 Homers 3 years ago and I believe he would find more POWER at GAB plus his glove would be great in Left, not to mention he would be a Lead off hitter...

Pony Boy
12-27-2010, 06:30 PM
Double post...

brm7675
12-27-2010, 06:33 PM
I wouldn't trade Yonder straight up for BJ Upton. Too light of a hitter to play a corner OF position and we have a better CF in Stubbs. We should be targeting a player with more bat and less glove than Upton.

Okay whom do we target?

Pony Boy
12-27-2010, 07:06 PM
I was skimming the teams for players available... BJ Upton has some upside... He hit 24 Homers 3 years ago and I believe he would find more POWER at GAB plus his glove would be great in Left, not to mention he would be a Lead off hitter...

I just feel like we would be paying for something that we don't really need with Upton. We don't really need a CF type defender in left. We need a great bat and a capable glove, not a great glove and capable bat. Upton would be much more valuable to a team that needs a CF, which fortunately is not us.

Hondo
12-27-2010, 07:08 PM
I just feel like we would be paying for something that we don't really need with Upton. We don't really need a CF type defender in left. We need a great bat and a capable glove, not a great glove and capable bat. Upton would be much more valuable to a team that needs a CF, which fortunately is not us.

This Team needs a LEAD OFF HITTER so he has to play either SS or Left Field...

nmculbreth
12-27-2010, 07:52 PM
This Team needs a LEAD OFF HITTER so he has to play either SS or Left Field...

If that is true why would the Reds have an interest in BJ Upton? I don't understand why anyone would be clamoring for BJ Upton when the club already has Drew Stubbs, who profiles to be a similar player. If you're uncomfortable with the thought of Stubbs leading off, why would you want to add Upton?

brm7675
12-27-2010, 07:57 PM
I wouldnt trade Leake or Wood for him but I think Alonso would get it done... A payroll slashing move for the Rays for sure and get a replacement possibly for Pena at 1st Base in Alonso...

Do you think Upton would be a good addition? For left field and lead off?

A) why would the Rays want an untested player for a decent ML talent?
B) He is okay but kinda expensive and is kinda a head case, I would pass

brm7675
12-27-2010, 07:58 PM
This Team needs a LEAD OFF HITTER so he has to play either SS or Left Field...

So you don't think Stubbs or Phillips can fit that bill?

Hondo
12-27-2010, 09:54 PM
So you don't think Stubbs or Phillips can fit that bill?

We have already spoken about Phillips. Bat .306 in the 2 hole to .251 in lead off...

I think BJ Upton has a Higher OBP than Stubbs and has hit .300 before...

I am not saying he isnt similar too Stubbs but this team needs to make an improvement somewhere... This is a player available that fits OF and Lead off... AVAILABLE

Quatitos
12-27-2010, 10:53 PM
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pos
2004 19 TBD AL 45 177 159 19 41 8 2 4 12 4 1 15 46 .258 .324 .409 .733 93 65D/7
2006 21 TBD AL 50 189 175 20 43 5 0 1 10 11 3 13 40 .246 .302 .291 .593 56 5
2007 22 TBD AL 129 548 474 86 142 25 1 24 82 22 8 65 154 .300 .386 .508 .894 136 84/D
2008 23 TBR AL 145 640 531 85 145 37 2 9 67 44 16 97 134 .273 .383 .401 .784 108 *8/D
2009 24 TBR AL 144 626 560 79 135 33 4 11 55 42 14 57 152 .241 .313 .373 .686 82 *8
2010 25 TBR AL 154 610 536 89 127 38 4 18 62 42 9 67 164 .237 .322 .424 .745 105 *8
6 Seasons 6 Seasons 6 Seasons 6 Seasons 667 2790 2435 378 633 146 13 67 288 165 51 314 690 .260 .345 .413 .758 102
162 Game Avg. 162 Game Avg. 162 Game Avg. 162 Game Avg. 162 678 591 92 154 35 3 16 70 40 12 76 168 .260 .345 .413 .758 102


Upton did have some really good years in 07 and 08, with 07 being his best year. Since 08 he has had his average go down each year and the only part his game he has seemed to improve on is his base stealing, with 42 steals and 9 CS being very impressive.

He seems to suffer from some of the same problems that Stubbs is ridiculed for in terms of his ability in the lead off spot, high SO numbers and too much power to be wasted at the top of the order (not something I believe in but enough people think that 20 HR potential is wasted in the leadoff spot). Now, moving out of the AL east would probably give him a bump in his overall batting stats.

For the price it would take to land him (I would imagine that it would be a steeper price than just straight up for Alonso), I would prefer the Reds don't try and make a sideways move like this since Upton and Stubbs are so similar and Upton seems like he would only provide around a ~.750 OPS, not enough for a corner spot. If we were to pursue another outfielder I would rather pursue Fred Lewis as a platoon mate for Gomes and part time leadoff hitter split with Stubbs.

Nathan
12-28-2010, 12:14 AM
For some reason, and I can't put my fingers on it, I don't want anything to do with either of the Upton brothers. There's something about them I don't like.

Krawhitham
12-28-2010, 12:29 AM
Yonder needs to prove he can hit MLB pitching


Stubbs is a better leadoff hitter, and Gomes but up better numbers in general

Krawhitham
12-28-2010, 12:32 AM
This Team needs a LEAD OFF HITTER so he has to play either SS or Left Field...

.322 OBP
.237 AVG
82% steal rate


.329 OBP
.255 AVG
83% steal rate


seems we have a better leadoff hitter already playing center

Redsnake
12-28-2010, 08:01 AM
As far as lead off hitter go. I'm okay with Stubbs getting another chance.

On that note, if the Reds could get a LF that could steal 40 bases, hit 20 HR, 80RBI and close to 100 runs scored. All while playing above average defense. You have to make that move. The salary addition is low inpact, the Rays want to shed him from the roster and a small lose in minor league talent is worth it.

Reds: BJ Upton

Rays:
Yonder - Rays need 1B help.
Heisey - Helps the Rays now with the lose.
Maloney - FA losses of Balfour, Soriano. Maloney could help now.

BEETTLEBUG
12-28-2010, 09:38 AM
I like deal

brm7675
12-28-2010, 11:29 AM
As far as lead off hitter go. I'm okay with Stubbs getting another chance.

On that note, if the Reds could get a LF that could steal 40 bases, hit 20 HR, 80RBI and close to 100 runs scored. All while playing above average defense. You have to make that move. The salary addition is low inpact, the Rays want to shed him from the roster and a small lose in minor league talent is worth it.

Reds: BJ Upton

Rays:
Yonder - Rays need 1B help.
Heisey - Helps the Rays now with the lose.
Maloney - FA losses of Balfour, Soriano. Maloney could help now.

No chance I give all that for Upton. Again i would offer Yonder and Maloney or say Bailey and maybe Frazier, but not 3.

Pony Boy
12-28-2010, 12:19 PM
A lot of love for a guy that hasnt OPS'ed north of .750 since 2008. He hit .237 last year and .241 in 2009. And you want to stick him in LF and bat him leadoff? Plus, his inexpensive years are over. I don't get it.

Isnt Heisey a better option than Upton? Both would be excellent defensively in left, their recent offensive numbers are similar, Heisey is still cheap, and he wouldnt require us giving up Alonso and pitching.

Answer this question; If you gave both Upton and Heisey 500 ABs next year, what are the odds that Heisey produces better offensive numbers than Upton?

Hondo
12-28-2010, 12:57 PM
A lot of love for a guy that hasnt OPS'ed north of .750 since 2008. He hit .237 last year and .241 in 2009. And you want to stick him in LF and bat him leadoff? Plus, his inexpensive years are over. I don't get it.

Isnt Heisey a better option than Upton? Both would be excellent defensively in left, their recent offensive numbers are similar, Heisey is still cheap, and he wouldnt require us giving up Alonso and pitching.

Answer this question; If you gave both Upton and Heisey 500 ABs next year, what are the odds that Heisey produces better offensive numbers than Upton?

I would be hoping a change of scenery and 2 years from Free Agency would get him back to his .300 hitting days...

brm7675
12-28-2010, 01:02 PM
I would be hoping a change of scenery and 2 years from Free Agency would get him back to his .300 hitting days...

Why risk it? Why not give Heisey a shot? To me this sounds like someone who just want's to see the Reds make move so they can say...Hey look the Reds made a move....

Hondo
12-28-2010, 01:08 PM
Why risk it? Why not give Heisey a shot? To me this sounds like someone who just want's to see the Reds make move so they can say...Hey look the Reds made a move....

No, BJ Upton 2 years ago was untouchable... He is only 26 and can Improve... Possibly even a 30/30 Guy...

What is it with you? Janish a starter? Hits .211 one year and .260 in less games & At Bats the very next year and you think he can hold up an entire season... Then I like Heisey but he is proven as a 4th OF'er now... Maybe not a Starter but LOVE his skills off the bench...

BJ Upton is available Now and has GREAT Upside... And you think it is a mistake...

TheBigLebowski
12-28-2010, 01:17 PM
I'd be very happy to see BJ manning left for the Reds....but it'll take more than Yonder....probably Yonder plus a top 15 system prospect...

I'd offer up Leake and a B-level prospect...I am in the Redszone minority in that I am not a big Leake fan....

Hondo
12-28-2010, 01:20 PM
I'd be very happy to see BJ manning left for the Reds....but it'll take more than Yonder....probably Yonder plus a top 15 system prospect...

I'd offer up Leake and a B-level prospect...I am in the Redszone minority in that I am not a big Leake fan....

Man, I would hate to Trade Leake... Love what that guy did for the Reds last year in only his first season in ALL of Pro Baseball... I am looking forward to Leake being in the rotation for years to come...

I think Yonder straight up would get it done, but that is just my opinion... Possibly Maloney and Alonso as the other Poster suggested... But I wouldn't give up any of the Reds starters for Upton because he is a Salary Dump...

Alonso would give them a Blue Chip 1st Base Prospect to take over for Carlos Pena...

TheBigLebowski
12-28-2010, 01:45 PM
Man, I would hate to Trade Leake... Love what that guy did for the Reds last year in only his first season in ALL of Pro Baseball... I am looking forward to Leake being in the rotation for years to come...

I think Yonder straight up would get it done, but that is just my opinion... Possibly Maloney and Alonso as the other Poster suggested... But I wouldn't give up any of the Reds starters for Upton because he is a Salary Dump...

Alonso would give them a Blue Chip 1st Base Prospect to take over for Carlos Pena...

You might be right....'round these parts, admitting to not having much confidence in Leake is tantamount to admitting you don't care for Beatles music at a yuppie cocktail party...something else I have done.

Pony Boy
12-28-2010, 02:02 PM
No, BJ Upton 2 years ago was untouchable... He is only 26 and can Improve... Possibly even a 30/30 Guy...

What is it with you? Janish a starter? Hits .211 one year and .260 in less games & At Bats the very next year and you think he can hold up an entire season... Then I like Heisey but he is proven as a 4th OF'er now... Maybe not a Starter but LOVE his skills off the bench...

BJ Upton is available Now and has GREAT Upside... And you think it is a mistake...

And you may be right. Upton is a great talent and it is possible that a change of scenary is all he needs to get back on track as a superstar. Dusty seems like the ideal manager for this type of player. But there is also an equal, perhaps greater, possibility that the Upton of the last 3 years is all he will ever be. I would be willing to give up something to roll the dice, but not a package of Alonso and Leake.

TheBigLebowski
12-28-2010, 02:16 PM
And you may be right. Upton is a great talent and it is possible that a change of scenary is all he needs to get back on track as a superstar. Dusty seems like the ideal manager for this type of player. But there is also an equal, perhaps greater, possibility that the Upton of the last 3 years is all he will ever be. I would be willing to give up something to roll the dice, but not a package of Alonso and Leake.

Whoa...no one wants to package Alonso AND Leake...from what I've gleaned, most would package Alonso + and I suggested I would do Leake + a B level prospect....and I am probably alone in that....but no one wants to deal both for BJ.

Knightro28
12-28-2010, 02:25 PM
I like Alonso-Upton straight up. And that might be over-paying. You never know what you have with Alonso until he is given consistent time in the bigs. It's definitely a risk, but I think of an outfield of Upton, Stubbs, and Bruce, and the potential Upton brings to the offense, and can't help but think that this is the piece the Reds need.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 02:34 PM
No, BJ Upton 2 years ago was untouchable... He is only 26 and can Improve... Possibly even a 30/30 Guy...

What is it with you? Janish a starter? Hits .211 one year and .260 in less games & At Bats the very next year and you think he can hold up an entire season... Then I like Heisey but he is proven as a 4th OF'er now... Maybe not a Starter but LOVE his skills off the bench...

BJ Upton is available Now and has GREAT Upside... And you think it is a mistake...

I don't see the upside in BJ, he is a head case and brings nothing more to the table then what we already have. Again i think Heisey can match whatever BJ would bring and he is cheaper. As for Janish, stop looking at just hitting, we have plenty of hitting, we need a strong defender at SS especially with the old man at 3rd.

Hondo
12-28-2010, 03:13 PM
I don't see the upside in BJ, he is a head case and brings nothing more to the table then what we already have. Again i think Heisey can match whatever BJ would bring and he is cheaper. As for Janish, stop looking at just hitting, we have plenty of hitting, we need a strong defender at SS especially with the old man at 3rd.

How id BJ Upton a "head case" ???

TheBigLebowski
12-28-2010, 03:27 PM
As for Janish, stop looking at just hitting, we have plenty of hitting, .

Hmmmm...not sure I would go that far. The Reds offense of 2010 performed admirably but I am not as confident that this team, which is basically the same to the player less OCab plus Janish, can reproduce those numbers. Possible, yes....probable....I dunno...

Let's go position by position by probable starters.

C: Rymon Hernandigan again.....platoon that should produce league-average numbers for the position, although I do expect Razor Ramon to drop off a bit next season due to age and the wear and tear that inevitably comes with an aging backstop.

1B: Votto is obviously a complete stud...MVP...while it is possible he does not reciprocate his 2010 numbers, I will gladly stipulate and acknowledge he is a total stud. Well above league average, even at the most prolific offensive position.

2B: Phillips, if used properly, is above league-average....but his 30/30 days are of the past...20/20, .265 should be what we expect.

SS: Janish is clearly no Tulo or ARod. I think, given a full season of AB's, he'll hit around .240-.250, maybe 10 dingers....a few rbi's....below league-average here.

3B: Rolen is an awesome player but he is getting old - he wore down noticeably last year during the stretch run and in the playoffs....he will be rested more frequently this year....when he sits, it appears Cairo and Juan Francisco will get his AB's....I think it would be a stretch to project our potential offensive production from the 3B position as anything above league average.

LF: Gomes, Heisey? TBD new acquisition? Face it - if we go into next season with Gomes as our de facto starter, even if there is a platoon with a Heisey or someone else in our system, production from LF should be projected to be below league-average. Gomes had one good month last season - one - and was abysmal the rest of the year. Let's not broach the subject of his outfield defense, which is far too similar to an orangutan trying to dice onions and tomatoes for a fire & ice salad (which is quite delicious - try it if you never have). LF is a big weakness for this team which has not yet been addressed. Right now we are below league average here.....by a good bit.

CF: Stubbs was awesome last year, any way you slice it. Outproduced even the most optimistic of expectations. However, he does lack the OBP and perhaps even the contact rate of a true leadoff hitter, and there is always the possibility that he does not match those numbers in 2011. Considering that most teams have CF's that are pretty effective at the plate and considering that no one here at Redszone would bet any significant amount of money that Stubbs will replicate 2010, we have to project our CF production as league-average.

RF: BRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCE.....I am a firm believer that this will be his breakout year.....I feel really good about Jay....but that doesn't mean I am right, sadly.....the dude has more pure baseball talent than anyone I have seen in quite some time....if he does put it together this year, RF offensive production is a huge plus.....if he replicates 2010, slightly above league average....either way, this is no weakness and could potentially be a huge plus...a 2010 Joey Votto plus.

3 positions I project at league average.....3 above league average...2 below....

Obviously these are just my opinions, although I daresay they are not far-fetched....and the bench is not full of pop either....to sum, in order or this offense to be effective, we need everyone who had great seasons last year to replicate them and we need some other players to outperform expectations. Thus far, this seems to be the game plan....Walt Jocketty has won a helluva lot more games than I have and undoubtedly has forgotten more about baseball than I know....but this is just the opinion of one fan...I think we need a reliable LF bat and another reliable stick off the bench.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 03:50 PM
How id BJ Upton a "head case" ???

Do some looking back and you will see, he has had some issues...

brm7675
12-28-2010, 03:53 PM
Hmmmm...not sure I would go that far. The Reds offense of 2010 performed admirably but I am not as confident that this team, which is basically the same to the player less OCab plus Janish, can reproduce those numbers. Possible, yes....probable....I dunno...

Let's go position by position by probable starters.

C: Rymon Hernandigan again.....platoon that should produce league-average numbers for the position, although I do expect Razor Ramon to drop off a bit next season due to age and the wear and tear that inevitably comes with an aging backstop.

1B: Votto is obviously a complete stud...MVP...while it is possible he does not reciprocate his 2010 numbers, I will gladly stipulate and acknowledge he is a total stud. Well above league average, even at the most prolific offensive position.

2B: Phillips, if used properly, is above league-average....but his 30/30 days are of the past...20/20, .265 should be what we expect.

SS: Janish is clearly no Tulo or ARod. I think, given a full season of AB's, he'll hit around .240-.250, maybe 10 dingers....a few rbi's....below league-average here.

3B: Rolen is an awesome player but he is getting old - he wore down noticeably last year during the stretch run and in the playoffs....he will be rested more frequently this year....when he sits, it appears Cairo and Juan Francisco will get his AB's....I think it would be a stretch to project our potential offensive production from the 3B position as anything above league average.

LF: Gomes, Heisey? TBD new acquisition? Face it - if we go into next season with Gomes as our de facto starter, even if there is a platoon with a Heisey or someone else in our system, production from LF should be projected to be below league-average. Gomes had one good month last season - one - and was abysmal the rest of the year. Let's not broach the subject of his outfield defense, which is far too similar to an orangutan trying to dice onions and tomatoes for a fire & ice salad (which is quite delicious - try it if you never have). LF is a big weakness for this team which has not yet been addressed. Right now we are below league average here.....by a good bit.

CF: Stubbs was awesome last year, any way you slice it. Outproduced even the most optimistic of expectations. However, he does lack the OBP and perhaps even the contact rate of a true leadoff hitter, and there is always the possibility that he does not match those numbers in 2011. Considering that most teams have CF's that are pretty effective at the plate and considering that no one here at Redszone would bet any significant amount of money that Stubbs will replicate 2010, we have to project our CF production as league-average.

RF: BRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCE.....I am a firm believer that this will be his breakout year.....I feel really good about Jay....but that doesn't mean I am right, sadly.....the dude has more pure baseball talent than anyone I have seen in quite some time....if he does put it together this year, RF offensive production is a huge plus.....if he replicates 2010, slightly above league average....either way, this is no weakness and could potentially be a huge plus...a 2010 Joey Votto plus.

3 positions I project at league average.....3 above league average...2 below....

Obviously these are just my opinions, although I daresay they are not far-fetched....and the bench is not full of pop either....to sum, in order or this offense to be effective, we need everyone who had great seasons last year to replicate them and we need some other players to outperform expectations. Thus far, this seems to be the game plan....Walt Jocketty has won a helluva lot more games than I have and undoubtedly has forgotten more about baseball than I know....but this is just the opinion of one fan...I think we need a reliable LF bat and another reliable stick off the bench.

i think if you do a comparison of each position with the other teams in the central, I think it is easily to see the Reds overall bring much more to the table offensivily then any other team in the central. The only offensive positions that concern me are 3rd and LF, the others I think will be okay and produce up to if not over set expectations.

wlf WV
12-28-2010, 04:06 PM
i think if you do a comparison of each position with the other teams in the central, I think it is easily to see the Reds overall bring much more to the table offensivily then any other team in the central. The only offensive positions that concern me are 3rd and LF, the others I think will be okay and produce up to if not over set expectations.

I agree with Lebowski.I think Brewers are best offensively.Our strength is overall pitching,but I hope for a breakout year from one of our kids.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 04:12 PM
I agree with Lebowski.I think Brewers are best offensively.Our strength is overall pitching,but I hope for a breakout year from one of our kids.

however stat's don't support that:

US: 162 5579 790 1515 293 30 188 2432 761 .272 .338 .436 .774
Them: 162 5606 750 1471 293 33 182 2376 710 .262 .335 .424 .759

Nathan
12-28-2010, 04:24 PM
Someone please tell me how Upton would be any better than Gomes in the outfield besides speed and defense?! The last few years, he's put up numbers similar to Tavaras. Would you want him back on the team? This guy stinks. BTW, he only hit .300 once in his career (just like willy t.)

Redsnake
12-28-2010, 04:32 PM
Someone please tell me how Upton would be any better than Gomes in the outfield besides speed and defense?! The last few years, he's put up numbers similar to Tavaras. Would you want him back on the team? This guy stinks. BTW, he only hit .300 once in his career (just like willy t.)

You had at me speed and defense. Serious?! You don't want a player that gives you better defense, steals 40+ bags and score more runs than Gomes?
Also, his numbers project better at age 27 and his value is a prime buy low situation.

I still think Yonder and Maloney gets the Rays to listen. Heisey, once BJ is here has no postion and would probably get the deal done.

ezluke
12-28-2010, 04:32 PM
however stat's don't support that:

US: 162 5579 790 1515 293 30 188 2432 761 .272 .338 .436 .774
Them: 162 5606 750 1471 293 33 182 2376 710 .262 .335 .424 .759

Those stats are with Braun and Fielder having career worst years. They combined to OPS around 100pts below their career averages. If we can expect our young guys to improve they should certainly expect their studs to revert back to their norms.

If they get back to normal they will cover whatever offense they traded away, and they now have probably the best staff in the central. Anyone who doesn't think that the Brewers leapfrogged the Reds is drinking the kool-aid.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 04:43 PM
Those stats are with Braun and Fielder having career worst years. They combined to OPS around 100pts below their career averages. If we can expect our young guys to improve they should certainly expect their studs to revert back to their norms.

If they get back to normal they will cover whatever offense they traded away, and they now have probably the best staff in the central. Anyone who doesn't think that the Brewers leapfrogged the Reds is drinking the kool-aid.

no I don't see their offense being better then the Reds overall, and there is no way in heck that their pitching staff is anywhere near the quality of the Reds as of right now. Please look at the overall staffs...

brm7675
12-28-2010, 04:44 PM
You had at me speed and defense. Serious?! You don't want a player that gives you better defense, steals 40+ bags and score more runs than Gomes?
Also, his numbers project better at age 27 and his value is a prime buy low situation.

I still think Yonder and Maloney gets the Rays to listen. Heisey, once BJ is here has no postion and would probably get the deal done.

We have speed with Heisey and good defense with Heisey and he is not costing us millions...if BJ is the best option out there, I keep my minor league talent and go with Chris Heisey in a heartbeat.:thumbup:

Quatitos
12-28-2010, 04:44 PM
I agree with Lebowski.I think Brewers are best offensively.Our strength is overall pitching,but I hope for a breakout year from one of our kids.

I actually don't think the brewers are better offensively, take a look at the head to head comparison and I think the only brewers I would pick over reds would be braun and rickie weeks.

Catcher: Easy win for the reds here, both Hannigan and Ramon beat anything the brewers can throw out there.

First Base: Tight race here, since you will probably see a good season out of prince in a contract year if he doesn't sign an extension. I would still take Votto here because we won't have to worry about his weight or a diet sapping his power.

Second Base: I would probably take Weeks here since he is entering his prime, although Phillips was very impressive from the #2 hole last year. Weeks over Phillips.

Short: The brew crew won't get any offense from this position so if janish can bat .250 and .320 obp (very reachable numbers for him) then I would take him over what the brewers have currently.

Third Base: As long as we don't get second half Rolen the whole year I would probably give him the edge. Mcghee is good, but even with Rolen's not so good half, Rolen ops'd 50 points higher than him. Slight win for rolen here.

Right Field: Hart had an impressive 2010, but I think that established his ceiling. Bruce matched Hart in noncounting stats and I think we can agree that based on age and potential Bruce gets a slight nod over hart.

Center field: Easy win for stubbs here. Rare mix of good defense, speed, and power give him the edge over anything the brewers currently have.

Left Field: Easy win for Braun assuming his power doesn't keep declining like it has been since his first season.

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Redsnake
12-28-2010, 04:51 PM
We have speed with Heisey and good defense with Heisey and he is not costing us millions...if BJ is the best option out there, I keep my minor league talent and go with Chris Heisey in a heartbeat.:thumbup:

I would rather have proven talent than hope. Millions sounds like it's 8, 10 12 million dollars. We're talking about adding a salary that would project in the bottom 10 in all of MLB.
Sure he compares now to Gomes, heisey on SOME catagories. I still would take a force on the base paths with projected numbers that would be better than both options on the team currently.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 04:53 PM
Those stats are with Braun and Fielder having career worst years. They combined to OPS around 100pts below their career averages. If we can expect our young guys to improve they should certainly expect their studs to revert back to their norms.

If they get back to normal they will cover whatever offense they traded away, and they now have probably the best staff in the central. Anyone who doesn't think that the Brewers leapfrogged the Reds is drinking the kool-aid.

Brewers 2010 stats:
162 5606 750 1471 293 33 182 2376 710 .262 .335 .424 .759

Brewers 2009 stats
162 5510 785 1447 281 37 182 2348 757 .263 .341 .426 .767

i don't see that much difference in their 09 stats and their 10 stats, so where do you see this massive increase?

Reds 2010 stats:
162 5579 790 1515 293 30 188 2432 761 .272 .338 .436 .774

our numbers are better then what the Brewers have done the past 2 seasons...

brm7675
12-28-2010, 04:56 PM
I would rather have proven talent than hope. Millions sounds like it's 8, 10 12 million dollars. We're talking about adding a salary that would project in the bottom 10 in all of MLB.
Sure he compares now to Gomes, heisey on SOME catagories. I still would take a force on the base paths with projected numbers that would be better than both options on the team currently.

don't you have to be on base to be a force? We took a chance with Stubbs adn that worked out well. Again we have limited financial resources and to spend what Upton will cost and not add that much is just not a wise baseball move. The idea of upgrading a position is to add someone who is miles better then what you have, and Upton doesn't offer that. If I am going to spend money on LF i want hitting numbers similar to say what Dunn produces and defensivly what Upton can bring, find me THAT player and i will deal some talent and pay the cost, if not, give me Heisey.

Hondo
12-28-2010, 04:58 PM
Do some looking back and you will see, he has had some issues...

Oh why even look it up if you say so?????

:rolleyes:

Quatitos
12-28-2010, 04:59 PM
Those stats are with Braun and Fielder having career worst years. They combined to OPS around 100pts below their career averages. If we can expect our young guys to improve they should certainly expect their studs to revert back to their norms.

If they get back to normal they will cover whatever offense they traded away, and they now have probably the best staff in the central. Anyone who doesn't think that the Brewers leapfrogged the Reds is drinking the kool-aid.

If you would like you can read my analysis of the brewers pitching in this thread http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2309625&postcount=7.

If you take greinke and marcum and use the same stats from last seaon (greinke would probably have seen a slightly lower era just getting away from the royals defense, although the worst defender came with him) the brewers are a middle of the rotation wise, slightly worse than the reds, and far behind the cardinals.

For next season I would expect the cardinals rotation to not be that good but still probably better than the reds and brewers, with those 2 being about equal. The reds are probably in the best position to replace any injuries with the cards and brew crew in a bad position if they need to dip into their starting pitching "depth" (there isn't really any)

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Hondo
12-28-2010, 05:03 PM
Since this Post is about BJ Upton

Would BJ Upton's addition to the Reds Improve or Not Improve team?

IMPROVE

NOT IMPROVE

ezluke
12-28-2010, 05:12 PM
Brewers 2010 stats:
162 5606 750 1471 293 33 182 2376 710 .262 .335 .424 .759

Brewers 2009 stats
162 5510 785 1447 281 37 182 2348 757 .263 .341 .426 .767

i don't see that much difference in their 09 stats and their 10 stats, so where do you see this massive increase?

Reds 2010 stats:
162 5579 790 1515 293 30 188 2432 761 .272 .338 .436 .774

our numbers are better then what the Brewers have done the past 2 seasons...

Weeks only played in 37 games in 2009,
A full year of McGehee which they didn't have in 2009
Corey Hart OPSed around 50pts below his career avg in 2009

Now put those guys along with Fielder/Braun all at just career avg, not career best and they take a serious step forward offensively

Thats 3 pretty big bumps right there from 2009, along with their pitching

ezluke
12-28-2010, 05:16 PM
If you would like you can read my analysis of the brewers pitching in this thread http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2309625&postcount=7.

If you take greinke and marcum and use the same stats from last seaon (greinke would probably have seen a slightly lower era just getting away from the royals defense, although the worst defender came with him) the brewers are a middle of the rotation wise, slightly worse than the reds, and far behind the cardinals.

For next season I would expect the cardinals rotation to not be that good but still probably better than the reds and brewers, with those 2 being about equal. The reds are probably in the best position to replace any injuries with the cards and brew crew in a bad position if they need to dip into their starting pitching "depth" (there isn't really any)

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I read that and pretty impressive research, but I didn't agree that you used Greinkes past year as his baseline, and I don't think you factored in heavily enough the benefits Marcum will get from leaving the AL East. We may have hitters parks, but they have better htters, and more of them. And it's not like Yankee Stadium and Fenway aren't hitters parks. I also think you underestimate the toll the DH takes on a pitcher, and the corresponding bump they will receive from having the automatic out at the bottom of the order.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 05:44 PM
Weeks only played in 37 games in 2009,
A full year of McGehee which they didn't have in 2009
Corey Hart OPSed around 50pts below his career avg in 2009

Now put those guys along with Fielder/Braun all at just career avg, not career best and they take a serious step forward offensively

Thats 3 pretty big bumps right there from 2009, along with their pitching

That could happen, but the odds that there offense is leaps and bounds better then the Reds is doubtful. you have a first basemen known as not being a physical guy, who could just as easily find himself on the DL due to injury as playing 150+ games. Weeks is good, but no better then Phillips. McGehee is 28, I don't see continued improvement of him, his numbers will reamain about the same. The same for Hart, i don't see massive improvement from a 28 year old, he will post similar numbers as he did last year. Will Milwaukee improve, sure it would be tough for them not to win more then 77 games next year, but a 20 game bump in wins, that I don't see and if they are not close come the trading deadline you will see them move Prince.

Hondo
12-28-2010, 05:54 PM
That could happen, but the odds that there offense is leaps and bounds better then the Reds is doubtful. you have a first basemen known as not being a physical guy, who could just as easily find himself on the DL due to injury as playing 150+ games. Weeks is good, but no better then Phillips. McGehee is 28, I don't see continued improvement of him, his numbers will reamain about the same. The same for Hart, i don't see massive improvement from a 28 year old, he will post similar numbers as he did last year. Will Milwaukee improve, sure it would be tough for them not to win more then 77 games next year, but a 20 game bump in wins, that I don't see and if they are not close come the trading deadline you will see them move Prince.

But you see Marked improvement from 28 year old Paul Janish?

brm7675
12-28-2010, 06:27 PM
Since this Post is about BJ Upton

Would BJ Upton's addition to the Reds Improve or Not Improve team?

IMPROVE

NOT IMPROVE

If you say so, I think it would be a wash given what we would have to give up, what his contract calls for. I think for the dollar investment the better option is Chris Heisey.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 06:30 PM
But you see Marked improvement from 28 year old Paul Janish?

no, I see average numbers for Janish, I don't care and have never cared what he does at the plate, he is there for his defense, to cover for an aging poor defesnive 3rd basemen. We have the hitting to be just fine, anything he adds would be gravy, his contribution comes in the field and that is just as important. Great defense turns bad pitchers into average pitchers, average pitchers into good pitchers and good pitchers into great pitchers. Give me Janish and his .250 hitting any day given what he brings with his glove.

wlf WV
12-28-2010, 06:41 PM
no, I see average numbers for Janish, I don't care and have never cared what he does at the plate, he is there for his defense, to cover for an aging poor defesnive 3rd basemen. We have the hitting to be just fine, anything he adds would be gravy, his contribution comes in the field and that is just as important. Great defense turns bad pitchers into average pitchers, average pitchers into good pitchers and good pitchers into great pitchers. Give me Janish and his .250 hitting any day given what he brings with his glove.
I agree.If your going to bet,use the money you have and not mortgage your house.(talking about LF)

brm7675
12-28-2010, 06:45 PM
I would be intersted to know why people don't think either Frazier or Heisey can't be the answer for LF?

Quatitos
12-28-2010, 07:24 PM
I read that and pretty impressive research, but I didn't agree that you used Greinkes past year as his baseline, and I don't think you factored in heavily enough the benefits Marcum will get from leaving the AL East. We may have hitters parks, but they have better htters, and more of them. And it's not like Yankee Stadium and Fenway aren't hitters parks. I also think you underestimate the toll the DH takes on a pitcher, and the corresponding bump they will receive from having the automatic out at the bottom of the order.

Later in that thread I adressed concerns about greinke and used his 2.18 era and the effect it would have on the overall team record was about another 3 or 4 wins (kind of annoying to check it on my phone so that could be a bit off, just my memory) but I used the past season stats as baseline to address the notion that 23 wins were being added.


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Hondo
12-28-2010, 08:03 PM
Later in that thread I adressed concerns about greinke and used his 2.18 era and the effect it would have on the overall team record was about another 3 or 4 wins (kind of annoying to check it on my phone so that could be a bit off, just my memory) but I used the past season stats as baseline to address the notion that 23 wins were being added.


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Yeah but what about the Starters all moving down 2 notches... Even is Gallardo is #2 and Marcum is #3

Nathan
12-28-2010, 08:37 PM
Since this Post is about BJ Upton

Would BJ Upton's addition to the Reds Improve or Not Improve team?

IMPROVE

NOT IMPROVE

Not. Yes, he steals bases better than Gomes, and yes, he plays better defense than Gomes. But at what cost? I absolutely do not want anything to do with Upton. I think he is extremely overrated. They neither get on base often enough. (Instead of them, might as well put Stubbs, who I think is a better leadoff hitter than Upton). As a matter of fact, I think he will be similar to Willy Tavaras, just with more pop. Remember how that turned out? Nobody wanted Willy T, yet, we are willing to pay even more for a little more power that we can get out of Gomes for Upton? WHY?

Quatitos
12-28-2010, 09:26 PM
Yeah but what about the Starters all moving down 2 notches... Even is Gallardo is #2 and Marcum is #3

I addressed that question in the other thread so let's get back on this topic since its about bj upton :)

And I would view any trade for bj upton that included a top prospect as not an improvement since that is your question. I have also seen it mentioned that the rays want to move upton but from what I have read, they are not actually shopping him currently and would be reluctant to move him.


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ezluke
12-28-2010, 10:46 PM
That could happen, but the odds that there offense is leaps and bounds better then the Reds is doubtful. you have a first basemen known as not being a physical guy, who could just as easily find himself on the DL due to injury as playing 150+ games. Weeks is good, but no better then Phillips. McGehee is 28, I don't see continued improvement of him, his numbers will reamain about the same. The same for Hart, i don't see massive improvement from a 28 year old, he will post similar numbers as he did last year. Will Milwaukee improve, sure it would be tough for them not to win more then 77 games next year, but a 20 game bump in wins, that I don't see and if they are not close come the trading deadline you will see them move Prince.

Offensively speaking

1b fielder/Votto...career wise slight edge to Votto but close. I would give the edge to Fielder because he is more reliable. He looks like an injury risk but unlike Votto he hasn't missed games in stretches

2b weeks/phillips...edge to weeks but very close

SS..who knows who is playing for either team. But Janish doesn't excite me at the plate

3b..Mcgehee/Rolen..McGeHee and not close

c...Lucroy/Hanigan/Hernandez I go with the Reds platoon, easy win for the Reds.

rf....Hart/Bruce...push not much seperating the two except Hart has done it longer

cf don't know who will be playing Cf for the crew but likely win for the Reds

lf...Braun/Gomes and anyone else we have is a landlside of monumental proportions for the Brewers

Pitching

Arroyo/Greinke...Greinke, but Arroyos more reliable

Volquez/Marcum...Marcum..Volquez has had 1/2 of a good season mediocre to awful ever since

Cueto/Gallardo..Gallardo beats him in most every stat. Gallardos career era+ is better than Cuetos career best year

Wood/Wolf..i go with wood. statistically closer than I thought it would be but Wolf has trouble making 30+ starts

Leake/Bailey/Bush I take either leake or Bailey

Bullpen..edge to Reds as things stand now easy win for the Reds.

I like pitching, and I think the Brewers have 3 pitchers who are all better than anyone the Reds have on staff. So unless their supporting players tank it offensively, like the Cards last season, I don't know how anyone can discount the Brewers. I don't think we were as good as we looked last year, and I don't think the Brewers were as bad as they looked last year. If both teams stood pat they would have shifted towards each other..but the Brewers put the pedal to the metal.

Quatitos
12-29-2010, 12:17 AM
Offensively speaking

1b fielder/Votto...career wise slight edge to Votto but close. I would give the edge to Fielder because he is more reliable. He looks like an injury risk but unlike Votto he hasn't missed games in stretches

3b..Mcgehee/Rolen..McGeHee and not close

rf....Hart/Bruce...push not much seperating the two except Hart has done it longer



I guess you can consider the fact that fielder won't miss much time as reliable, although its amazing that he does considering his size. When I think of reliable I like Joey when there are Runners in scoring position, look at the career splits and the best statistical years both players have had. Joey is coming off his career best year and has done nothing but improve every year in the majors (although I don't know if he can beat last year). Fielder has had 2 years of going over 1.000 ops compared to Joey's 1, but Joey has 2 years over an .981 ops :). Fielder also has only broken an .880 OPS twice, with 3 years in the mid .800's. Joey was also able to swipe 16 bases last year, which is one over Prince's 5 year career total. Don't get me wrong, there are probably 28 or so teams that would love to have Prince, but Joey is just a step beyond Fielder and I couldn't imagine giving the edge based only on the fact that Joey missed ~20 games during one year in his career.


I Split G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
Votto Car RISP 320 498 405 136 34 2 19 196 84 82 .336 .448 .570 1.018 231 7 6 28 .377 114
Votto 10 RISP 110 167 130 48 8 0 9 69 33 28 .369 .491 .638 1.129 83 3 3 8 .406 122
Prince Car RISP 611 973 727 194 30 2 36 324 189 17 .267 .418 .462 .880 336 23 33 82 .289 95
Prince 09 RISP 130 206 152 45 7 1 13 93 43 31 .296 .437 .612 1.049 93 4 9 21 .274 108


As for McGehee vs Rolen, I don't see how there is much of a question, considering Rolen OPS'd about 50 points higher and McGehee has only 1 and a half season of ML experience and never OPS'd higher than .776 in the minors. Quite puzzling how you could think this.

Your point for Hart is valid, although I am of the opinion last year is the best you will see Hart play and last year was just a taste of what Bruce is capable of (second half OPS of .951).

brm7675
12-29-2010, 12:04 PM
Offensively speaking

1b fielder/Votto...career wise slight edge to Votto but close. I would give the edge to Fielder because he is more reliable. He looks like an injury risk but unlike Votto he hasn't missed games in stretches

2b weeks/phillips...edge to weeks but very close

SS..who knows who is playing for either team. But Janish doesn't excite me at the plate

3b..Mcgehee/Rolen..McGeHee and not close

c...Lucroy/Hanigan/Hernandez I go with the Reds platoon, easy win for the Reds.

rf....Hart/Bruce...push not much seperating the two except Hart has done it longer

cf don't know who will be playing Cf for the crew but likely win for the Reds

lf...Braun/Gomes and anyone else we have is a landlside of monumental proportions for the Brewers

Pitching

Arroyo/Greinke...Greinke, but Arroyos more reliable

Volquez/Marcum...Marcum..Volquez has had 1/2 of a good season mediocre to awful ever since

Cueto/Gallardo..Gallardo beats him in most every stat. Gallardos career era+ is better than Cuetos career best year

Wood/Wolf..i go with wood. statistically closer than I thought it would be but Wolf has trouble making 30+ starts

Leake/Bailey/Bush I take either leake or Bailey

Bullpen..edge to Reds as things stand now easy win for the Reds.

I like pitching, and I think the Brewers have 3 pitchers who are all better than anyone the Reds have on staff. So unless their supporting players tank it offensively, like the Cards last season, I don't know how anyone can discount the Brewers. I don't think we were as good as we looked last year, and I don't think the Brewers were as bad as they looked last year. If both teams stood pat they would have shifted towards each other..but the Brewers put the pedal to the metal.

i see the Reds pitching rotation as:

Bronson - 1
Cueto - 2
Wood - 3
Volquez - 4
Bailey/Leake battling for 5

With that lineup, I give the Brewers the edge with Grenkie over Bronson, but I will take Cuteo and Wood any day over Marcum and Gallardo. That leaves us still 3 good starting pitchers to match up with what ever the Brewers have.

In the field, I will take Votto, phillips, Janish, Bruce, H & H boys and Stubbs over their counter parts in Milwaukee. In the pen it's not even close

Ohioballplayer
12-29-2010, 12:30 PM
I would rather have proven talent than hope. Millions sounds like it's 8, 10 12 million dollars. We're talking about adding a salary that would project in the bottom 10 in all of MLB.
Sure he compares now to Gomes, heisey on SOME catagories. I still would take a force on the base paths with projected numbers that would be better than both options on the team currently.

Proven talents dont usually hit .241, and having numbers that slightly decrease over the years, yeah I know but he could steal 40 and hit 20hr's, la dee da, so could BP or maybe even Stubbs, head case or not Upton for me is a BIG NO!!

ezluke
12-29-2010, 12:32 PM
I guess you can consider the fact that fielder won't miss much time as reliable, although its amazing that he does considering his size. When I think of reliable I like Joey when there are Runners in scoring position, look at the career splits and the best statistical years both players have had. Joey is coming off his career best year and has done nothing but improve every year in the majors (although I don't know if he can beat last year). Fielder has had 2 years of going over 1.000 ops compared to Joey's 1, but Joey has 2 years over an .981 ops :). Fielder also has only broken an .880 OPS twice, with 3 years in the mid .800's. Joey was also able to swipe 16 bases last year, which is one over Prince's 5 year career total. Don't get me wrong, there are probably 28 or so teams that would love to have Prince, but Joey is just a step beyond Fielder and I couldn't imagine giving the edge based only on the fact that Joey missed ~20 games during one year in his career.


I Split G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
Votto Car RISP 320 498 405 136 34 2 19 196 84 82 .336 .448 .570 1.018 231 7 6 28 .377 114
Votto 10 RISP 110 167 130 48 8 0 9 69 33 28 .369 .491 .638 1.129 83 3 3 8 .406 122
Prince Car RISP 611 973 727 194 30 2 36 324 189 17 .267 .418 .462 .880 336 23 33 82 .289 95
Prince 09 RISP 130 206 152 45 7 1 13 93 43 31 .296 .437 .612 1.049 93 4 9 21 .274 108


As for McGehee vs Rolen, I don't see how there is much of a question, considering Rolen OPS'd about 50 points higher and McGehee has only 1 and a half season of ML experience and never OPS'd higher than .776 in the minors. Quite puzzling how you could think this.

Your point for Hart is valid, although I am of the opinion last year is the best you will see Hart play and last year was just a taste of what Bruce is capable of (second half OPS of .951).

Q Votto didn't just miss time for the mental issues, which according to him he still deals with but I have never seen a guy miss as much time as he did last year for a stiff neck. Tracy Jones told a story about Paul Oneill missing a game because of a stiff neck, and the team rode him like crazy..Paul made sure he played the next game.

I would take McGehhee over Rolen because last year, well actually just the first half of last year appears to be an aberration. I don't count on Rolen to stay healthy let alone duplicate the numbers he did last year. After the all-star break Rolen was almost Taveras-like.

ezluke
12-29-2010, 12:35 PM
i see the Reds pitching rotation as:

Bronson - 1
Cueto - 2
Wood - 3
Volquez - 4
Bailey/Leake battling for 5

With that lineup, I give the Brewers the edge with Grenkie over Bronson, but I will take Cuteo and Wood any day over Marcum and Gallardo. That leaves us still 3 good starting pitchers to match up with what ever the Brewers have.

In the field, I will take Votto, phillips, Janish, Bruce, H & H boys and Stubbs over their counter parts in Milwaukee. In the pen it's not even close

You would take 2 guys who you hope to be good over two guys who have been proven to be good? Gallardos average year is better than Cuetos best year, and yet you would still take Cueto? We might as well stop the discussion because you are obviously debating from your heart, not your head, and since I have been married before I know this will go nowhere.

brm7675
12-29-2010, 01:02 PM
You would take 2 guys who you hope to be good over two guys who have been proven to be good? Gallardos average year is better than Cuetos best year, and yet you would still take Cueto? We might as well stop the discussion because you are obviously debating from your heart, not your head, and since I have been married before I know this will go nowhere.

I don't see that much difference in overall numbers between Cueto and Gallardos. I think Cueto has more long term potential, so i would go with Cueto. As for Wood vs. Marcum, I like what I saw from Wood, add in he is a lefty and his age over how old marcum is, i will take Wood.

Quatitos
12-29-2010, 01:40 PM
Q Votto didn't just miss time for the mental issues, which according to him he still deals with but I have never seen a guy miss as much time as he did last year for a stiff neck. Tracy Jones told a story about Paul Oneill missing a game because of a stiff neck, and the team rode him like crazy..Paul made sure he played the next game.

I would take McGehhee over Rolen because last year, well actually just the first half of last year appears to be an aberration. I don't count on Rolen to stay healthy let alone duplicate the numbers he did last year. After the all-star break Rolen was almost Taveras-like.

For reference, the past 2 years have been when Fielder played 160+ games, I would base that on Ken Macha not giving Fielder any games off and Fielder just being lucky he didn't get hurt, especially with that extra weight he lugs around. Before Ken Macha got there, prince was only playing 150-155 games a season, more in line with how many games Votto has played in 2008 and 2010. I wouldn't put the extra games Fielder played over Votto so much to Fielder's credit as I would Macha trying to save his job during 2 losing seasons by driving his star players too hard. This might be why Fielder had such a drop in 2010 from his 2009 season :dunno:

Rolen's half season splits.

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SF IBB tOPS+ sOPS+
1st Half 79 75 324 283 43 82 18 2 17 57 30 47 .290 .361 .548 .909 155 7 5 6 1 111 145
2nd Half 54 50 213 188 23 52 16 1 3 26 20 35 .277 .352 .420 .772 79 5 3 2 2 83 115


Well with Rolen's such Taveras-like second half he almost matched McGehee's season OPS :rolleyes:. Sure Rolen wasn't as good during the second half, but it was hardly as bad as people around here like to exaggerate it.

swaisuc
12-29-2010, 01:59 PM
I would be intersted to know why people don't think either Frazier or Heisey can't be the answer for LF?

Sure, they can be. That doesn't mean I want to go into the season counting on it without other options that are more likely to produce. 5 years ago, we were content to just field a lineup that had potential to score runs if everything worked out. Now, I'd like to believe this team has progressed to the point where a huge ??? in left field isn't plan A.

With that said, if they can't find a reasonable deal for a left fielder, it won't surprise me at all if one of those guys step up and take the job.

brm7675
12-29-2010, 02:26 PM
Sure, they can be. That doesn't mean I want to go into the season counting on it without other options that are more likely to produce. 5 years ago, we were content to just field a lineup that had potential to score runs if everything worked out. Now, I'd like to believe this team has progressed to the point where a huge ??? in left field isn't plan A.

With that said, if they can't find a reasonable deal for a left fielder, it won't surprise me at all if one of those guys step up and take the job.

But I really doubt there is that player out there this offseason...

Quatitos
12-29-2010, 02:31 PM
But I really doubt there is that player out there this offseason...Agreed, there was really only a couple of high profile players and then the dropoff in quality to the next set of free agents was pretty big, and there aren't too many players that fit the profile on the trade market.

texasdave
12-29-2010, 03:13 PM
Didn't Walt try to fill that LF hole last off-season as well? Big-stick LFers must be harder to find than originally thought. One and a half off-seasons and counting. And you can pretty much say the same thing for the SS position as well. Where's Walt-o?

brm7675
12-29-2010, 03:51 PM
Didn't Walt try to fill that LF hole last off-season as well? Big-stick LFers must be harder to find than originally thought. One and a half off-seasons and counting. And you can pretty much say the same thing for the SS position as well. Where's Walt-o?

no they are out there, you just either must be willing to offer up a lot in trade or take a player who may have a big bat but limited glove (Adam Dunn) or a player with limited bat and great fielder (like an Upton), it just all depends.

Hondo
12-29-2010, 04:07 PM
I addressed that question in the other thread so let's get back on this topic since its about bj upton :)

And I would view any trade for bj upton that included a top prospect as not an improvement since that is your question. I have also seen it mentioned that the rays want to move upton but from what I have read, they are not actually shopping him currently and would be reluctant to move him.


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yeah I read that... your explanation wasn't that good when you have to take in all factors... Opposing pitchers, bullpen, etc...

ezluke
12-29-2010, 04:44 PM
I don't see that much difference in overall numbers between Cueto and Gallardos. I think Cueto has more long term potential, so i would go with Cueto. As for Wood vs. Marcum, I like what I saw from Wood, add in he is a lefty and his age over how old marcum is, i will take Wood.

I'm not talking about long term future projections, we were talking about who will be better next year..and next year both of those guys figure to better than the Wood/Cueto. I'm guessing you are changing the debate to fit your needs, but. Going by career numbers, the things that they have actually done before, not the things we hope they will do someday MAYBE.... the Brewers have 3 pitchers who have been better then any pitcher on the Reds staff. Now if you wanna talk who will be better in 3yrs the argument will likely change.

And if you dont see a noticable difference between career numbers of Cueto/Gallardo than you are only seeing what you wanna see. Again, somehow you have decided to take the guy whose careeryear best era+ is worse than the average year for the other guy. You are basing your argument solely on who you wanna be better not who has shown themselves to actually be better.

Hondo
12-29-2010, 04:53 PM
I'm not talking about long term future projections, we were talking about who will be better next year..and next year both of those guys figure to better than the Wood/Cueto. I'm guessing you are changing the debate to fit your needs, but. Going by career numbers, the things that they have actually done before, not the things we hope they will do someday MAYBE.... the Brewers have 3 pitchers who have been better then any pitcher on the Reds staff. Now if you wanna talk who will be better in 3yrs the argument will likely change.

And if you dont see a noticable difference between career numbers of Cueto/Gallardo than you are only seeing what you wanna see. Again, somehow you have decided to take the guy whose careeryear best era+ is worse than the average year for the other guy. You are basing your argument solely on who you wanna be better not who has shown themselves to actually be better.

He also wants Janish to be better just because... "Trust Him..."

ezluke
12-29-2010, 04:54 PM
For reference, the past 2 years have been when Fielder played 160+ games, I would base that on Ken Macha not giving Fielder any games off and Fielder just being lucky he didn't get hurt, especially with that extra weight he lugs around. Before Ken Macha got there, prince was only playing 150-155 games a season, more in line with how many games Votto has played in 2008 and 2010. I wouldn't put the extra games Fielder played over Votto so much to Fielder's credit as I would Macha trying to save his job during 2 losing seasons by driving his star players too hard. This might be why Fielder had such a drop in 2010 from his 2009 season :dunno:

Rolen's half season splits.

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SF IBB tOPS+ sOPS+
1st Half 79 75 324 283 43 82 18 2 17 57 30 47 .290 .361 .548 .909 155 7 5 6 1 111 145
2nd Half 54 50 213 188 23 52 16 1 3 26 20 35 .277 .352 .420 .772 79 5 3 2 2 83 115


Well with Rolen's such Taveras-like second half he almost matched McGehee's season OPS :rolleyes:. Sure Rolen wasn't as good during the second half, but it was hardly as bad as people around here like to exaggerate it.

I said that Votto gets the nod, but I would personally take Fielder. I don't trust Votto, he seems both physically and mentally fragile, but that is my personal opinion. But understand that our far and away best hitter is basically even with their second best hitter.

Like I said I don't expect Rolen to have another year like he had last year. You seem to be counting on him continuing what he did last year, but it's more likely that he regresses more towards what he had done the previous few years. He had his first good/healthy year in quite a while and suddenly everyone here feels that he has suddenly been cured of his back problems. You feel like you can count on him, I look at his medical history and know that I hope he's healthy but I am not banking on it..If given the choice who to have for next year I would take the guy in his prime, not the guy who is one misstep away from another trip to the 60day dl

Quatitos
12-29-2010, 09:42 PM
yeah I read that... your explanation wasn't that good when you have to take in all factors... Opposing pitchers, bullpen, etc...

Well if you didn't like it in that thread why don't you complain about it there and try and come up with something better :p:. I know that it is not very accurate, since it did not take all those factors into account, it was more of a what if they had the same results in the Brewers rotation. I'm sorry my explanation does not stand up to adding 13 and 10 together :notworthy

Quatitos
12-29-2010, 10:37 PM
He also wants Janish to be better just because... "Trust Him..."

Your not one to talk, its a rare thing to see you actually present any evidence to back up what you say as well. If you don't want to put in the work to back up your statements, don't complain when someone else doesn't as well :rolleyes:


Statements like

Janish is a back up and his history shows he wears down the more he plays...
with such awesome evidence as

2 years ago he didn't even hit .200 and last year in a part time role he did well... when he had the 26 consecutive starts in August.. his average dipped and he made 4 errors at the end in a few game span... then OC came back...
2 years ago was his first crack at ML pitching and he had a measly total of 89 PA, referencing that does not prove much at all aside from Janish had trouble adjusting to ML pitching getting spotty playing time.

When he had the 27 consecutive starts (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=janispa01&t=b&year=2010&share=1.81#168-194-sum:batting_gamelogs) he posted a .263/.336/.400 line, and during the last 8 games he posted a .267/.333/.337 line. His average at the start of this streak was .269 and at the end it was .266, the lowest it went during that streak was .259. But I guess we should just "trust you" that Janish is nothing but a backup even though you have yet to actually prove this :p:

And then OC came back and we recieved a downgrade at shortstop.

Hondo
12-30-2010, 11:46 AM
Well if you didn't like it in that thread why don't you complain about it there and try and come up with something better :p:. I know that it is not very accurate, since it did not take all those factors into account, it was more of a what if they had the same results in the Brewers rotation. I'm sorry my explanation does not stand up to adding 13 and 10 together :notworthy

I did reply in that thread, you didn't answer... You can use Sabermetrics all you want, THe Brewers did more than just add 7-8 wins...

Hondo
12-30-2010, 11:59 AM
Your not one to talk, its a rare thing to see you actually present any evidence to back up what you say as well. If you don't want to put in the work to back up your statements, don't complain when someone else doesn't as well :rolleyes:


Statements like

with such awesome evidence as

2 years ago was his first crack at ML pitching and he had a measly total of 89 PA, referencing that does not prove much at all aside from Janish had trouble adjusting to ML pitching getting spotty playing time.

When he had the 27 consecutive starts (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=janispa01&t=b&year=2010&share=1.81#168-194-sum:batting_gamelogs) he posted a .263/.336/.400 line, and during the last 8 games he posted a .267/.333/.337 line. His average at the start of this streak was .269 and at the end it was .266, the lowest it went during that streak was .259. But I guess we should just "trust you" that Janish is nothing but a backup even though you have yet to actually prove this :p:

And then OC came back and we recieved a downgrade at shortstop.

Dude, I guess you're wanting a "that a 'boy" for all your "paragraphs" for your quest to be in the ORG...

But just because my "posts" aren't as long as yours, doesn't mean anything... When I am debating I get to the point... You type so much you think the greater quantity of "words" you use is your paragraphs, the "more" your point is proven...

Janish is not a starting SS and has proven it otherwise to this date based on his stats and not based on his 27 consecutive starts.

That would be like me saying 10 years ago, when Tuffy Rhodes of the Chicago Cubs his 3 Home Runs on opening day off Dwight Gooden, that he was going to be an All-Star and finish with 50+ Homers for the season...

Another example you all use is Jonny Gomes 1 GOOD month, then you go into how he isnt as good over a full season...

Oh an on the Brewers... The team added Shawn Marcum and Zach Greinke... and replaced a half year of Hoffman in the pen with Axelrod who throws more heat and added Saito to set up...

Marcum and Greinke are replacing Doug Davis, David Bush, and Jeff Suppan...
Chris Narveson will probably get the 5th hole in the rotation with Bush going as long man in the Bull Pen...

And you say the Brewers only improve by 7 Games? Alls I said is that they added 23 wins because that was the ammount of Wins Greinke and Marcum won last year... Which was using a Broad Stroke... But heres the deal, I dont have to go take Bill James out for Lunch to figure out all the Sabermetrics you went on and on and on about in your other Post...

Greinke will be absolutley better on a better team and with Greinke and Marcum getting the starts of Suppan and Davis... and everyone else moving down a knotch or 2 in the Rotation (Gallardo going to 2 & Wolf going to 4)... They will obviously win More games... than 7 or 8... Based on Common Sense

brm7675
12-30-2010, 12:56 PM
He also wants Janish to be better just because... "Trust Him..."

No i just want janish to play, unlike you i don't expect him to do much at the plate and don't care if he does, his glove play outweights his limited hitting ability.

brm7675
12-30-2010, 12:59 PM
I did reply in that thread, you didn't answer... You can use Sabermetrics all you want, THe Brewers did more than just add 7-8 wins...

We don't know what they have added, those they signed could stink up the joint, get injuried or who knows what. Have they bettered their pitching staff, sure, is it better and deaper then the Reds, I would say no.

brm7675
12-30-2010, 01:03 PM
Janish is not a starting SS and has proven it otherwise to this date based on his stats and not based on his 27 consecutive starts.



until janish is given the chance to be an everyday SS we don't know what he can or can't be. To date he has not been given that chance, so why not let it be this season?

Hondo
12-30-2010, 01:12 PM
until janish is given the chance to be an everyday SS we don't know what he can or can't be. To date he has not been given that chance, so why not let it be this season?

I think Janish is very Valuable off the bench, that is it. I am not comfortable with him getting 150 starts... When this team could at least Improve either LF or SS, and with Jonny Gomes hitting 20 HR and having 85 RBI although even 1 month was a monster and the rest of the year was average at best, where would the Reds have been with out that 1 Month Early in the season without Gomes Production in the Lineup...

So as Gomes is signed relatively Cheap for 1.85 Million for 2011 and will probably have at least 15 HR and 75 RBI

The one postition on this team that needs an absolute upgrade is SS, and preferably a Lead off Hitter at SS...

Janish is most valuable off the Bench...

Quatitos
12-30-2010, 01:25 PM
Dude, I guess you're wanting a "that a 'boy" for all your "paragraphs" for your quest to be in the ORG...

But just because my "posts" aren't as long as yours, doesn't mean anything... When I am debating I get to the point... You type so much you think the greater quantity of "words" you use is your paragraphs, the "more" your point is proven...Well I guess providing more evidence equals writing more words then putting more of them in a post does prove my point better. Its too bad you never learned in school that to prove a point, you should actually used evidence to back it up. If quality is not something you strive for then its good to know you are happy with a half hearted effort, some of us are not.

I won't get into a fight over your referencing a "quest to be in the ORG..." but how you phrase it is very amusing. It would be nice to post in there instead, people's standards are generally much higher than I have been subjected to in here :p:.


Janish is not a starting SS and has proven it otherwise to this date based on his stats and not based on his 27 consecutive starts.
And what stats would that be since the last time you tried to quote stats you were wrong :p:. I saw a year from him last year that was worthy of a starter in the playing time he did get, and he kept it up during the prolonged period of play that you referenced as showing he couldn't handle the everyday job. I have said that Janish will be below average with his bat but well above average with his glove allowing him to be an overall average shortstop, which wouldn't you know it would be a starter :p:. Also, I am wondering what your threshold is for a starter since I don't think you have quantified that and have actually resisted it by just repeatedly saying that he is not nor will ever be a starter.



That would be like me saying 10 years ago, when Tuffy Rhodes of the Chicago Cubs his 3 Home Runs on opening day off Dwight Gooden, that he was going to be an All-Star and finish with 50+ Homers for the season...



Another example you all use is Jonny Gomes 1 GOOD month, then you go into how he isnt as good over a full season...
I actually don't use that all that much and would like to see a reference to it. I am more than open to platooning Jonny, but I would like him around unless we get a starter that is clearly better than him. He hits much better with men on, even after his 1 hot month.


Dude, I guess you're wanting a "that a 'boy" for all your "paragraphs" for your quest to be in the ORG...

But just because my "posts" aren't as long as yours, doesn't mean anything... When I am debating I get to the point... You type so much you think the greater quantity of "words" you use is your paragraphs, the "more" your point is proven...Well I guess providing more evidence equals writing more words then putting more of them in a post does prove my point better. If quality is not something you strive for then its good to know you are happy with a half hearted effort.



Janish is not a starting SS and has proven it otherwise to this date based on his stats and not based on his 27 consecutive starts.
And what stats would that be since the last time you tried to quote stats you were wrong :p:. I saw a year from him last year that was worthy of a starter in the playing time he did get, and he kept it up during the prolonged period of play that you referenced as showing he couldn't handle the everyday job. I have said that Janish will be below average with his bat but well above average with his glove allowing him to be an overall average shortstop, which wouldn't you know it would be a starter :p:. Also, I am wondering what your threshold is for a starter since I don't think you have quantified that and have actually resisted it by just repeatedly saying that he is not nor will ever be a starter.



That would be like me saying 10 years ago, when Tuffy Rhodes of the Chicago Cubs his 3 Home Runs on opening day off Dwight Gooden, that he was going to be an All-Star and finish with 50+ Homers for the season...



Oh an on the Brewers... The team added Shawn Marcum and Zach Greinke... and replaced a half year of Hoffman in the pen with Axelrod who throws more heat and added Saito to set up...

Marcum and Greinke are replacing Doug Davis, David Bush, and Jeff Suppan...
Chris Narveson will probably get the 5th hole in the rotation with Bush going as long man in the Bull Pen...

And you say the Brewers only improve by 7 Games? Alls I said is that they added 23 wins because that was the ammount of Wins Greinke and Marcum won last year... Which was using a Broad Stroke... But heres the deal, I dont have to go take Bill James out for Lunch to figure out all the Sabermetrics you went on and on and on about in your other Post...

Yet you don't try and quantify the impact this will have on the team as a whole :p:. And if you think what I did was Sabermetrics than I think you need to learn what Sabermetrics is. I used ERA (not a sabertmetric stat) to try to prove my point which a lot of Sabermetricians would hate because ERA's predictive power is not that great, I just used it to show what kind of results the Brewers would have gotten last year with that rotation and a slight bump to the bullpen. What I did is in no way a prediction, I just did it to show that a lot more goes into a teams win/loss record than improving 2 starting slots and the bullpen.

I guess if basic math scares you then you can keep up with your assumptions (which have no backing) and keep saying that the Reds stink and the Brewers will win:rolleyes:.


Greinke will be absolutley better on a better team and with Greinke and Marcum getting the starts of Suppan and Davis... and everyone else moving down a knotch or 2 in the Rotation (Gallardo going to 2 & Wolf going to 4)... They will obviously win More games... than 7 or 8... Based on Common Sense
There is no assurance that Greinke with be better on a better team, heck he could get hurt in spring training and do nothing. Marcum is actually probably the easier to predict of the 2 since he is overall much more consistent than Greinke. There is no assurance that they will win more games next year, heck they could lose more games next year. I am comfortable putting their low end in the low 80's since they got rid of so much garbage, but injuries to one of their starters brings it right back.

And like I said, if you want to quote how many "wins were added" then it is only 10 wins since the people they are replacing won 13 :p:. I expect at least basic math skills from you if you want to argue anything. As for your common sense, you are clearly biased in that you are putting too much worth on these two pitchers and not actually viewing the team as a whole. I tried to remove any bias in my evaluation and actually changed some of the numbers upon request to show the results it would bring. If you find it unsatisfactory, why don't you do better. I have taken up that challenge from you before so why don't you do some real work for once.

Quatitos
12-30-2010, 01:28 PM
I did reply in that thread, you didn't answer... You can use Sabermetrics all you want, THe Brewers did more than just add 7-8 wins...

I did answer your reply, it was the post right after your question. (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2309714&postcount=18)

brm7675
12-30-2010, 01:44 PM
I think Janish is very Valuable off the bench, that is it. I am not comfortable with him getting 150 starts... When this team could at least Improve either LF or SS, and with Jonny Gomes hitting 20 HR and having 85 RBI although even 1 month was a monster and the rest of the year was average at best, where would the Reds have been with out that 1 Month Early in the season without Gomes Production in the Lineup...

So as Gomes is signed relatively Cheap for 1.85 Million for 2011 and will probably have at least 15 HR and 75 RBI

The one postition on this team that needs an absolute upgrade is SS, and preferably a Lead off Hitter at SS...

Janish is most valuable off the Bench...

So you would feel better with a AARP member at SS like we did last season? No Gomes had like one Monster month, one good month and the rest was below replacement level. This team needs a quality LF, the SS position is just fine. Gomes is your bench player not Janis.

Hondo
12-30-2010, 02:14 PM
Well I guess providing more evidence equals writing more words then putting more of them in a post does prove my point better. Its too bad you never learned in school that to prove a point, you should actually used evidence to back it up. If quality is not something you strive for then its good to know you are happy with a half hearted effort, some of us are not.

I won't get into a fight over your referencing a "quest to be in the ORG..." but how you phrase it is very amusing. It would be nice to post in there instead, people's standards are generally much higher than I have been subjected to in here :p:.

And what stats would that be since the last time you tried to quote stats you were wrong :p:. I saw a year from him last year that was worthy of a starter in the playing time he did get, and he kept it up during the prolonged period of play that you referenced as showing he couldn't handle the everyday job. I have said that Janish will be below average with his bat but well above average with his glove allowing him to be an overall average shortstop, which wouldn't you know it would be a starter :p:. Also, I am wondering what your threshold is for a starter since I don't think you have quantified that and have actually resisted it by just repeatedly saying that he is not nor will ever be a starter.




I actually don't use that all that much and would like to see a reference to it. I am more than open to platooning Jonny, but I would like him around unless we get a starter that is clearly better than him. He hits much better with men on, even after his 1 hot month.

Well I guess providing more evidence equals writing more words then putting more of them in a post does prove my point better. If quality is not something you strive for then its good to know you are happy with a half hearted effort.


And what stats would that be since the last time you tried to quote stats you were wrong :p:. I saw a year from him last year that was worthy of a starter in the playing time he did get, and he kept it up during the prolonged period of play that you referenced as showing he couldn't handle the everyday job. I have said that Janish will be below average with his bat but well above average with his glove allowing him to be an overall average shortstop, which wouldn't you know it would be a starter :p:. Also, I am wondering what your threshold is for a starter since I don't think you have quantified that and have actually resisted it by just repeatedly saying that he is not nor will ever be a starter.




Yet you don't try and quantify the impact this will have on the team as a whole :p:. And if you think what I did was Sabermetrics than I think you need to learn what Sabermetrics is. I used ERA (not a sabertmetric stat) to try to prove my point which a lot of Sabermetricians would hate because ERA's predictive power is not that great, I just used it to show what kind of results the Brewers would have gotten last year with that rotation and a slight bump to the bullpen. What I did is in no way a prediction, I just did it to show that a lot more goes into a teams win/loss record than improving 2 starting slots and the bullpen.

I guess if basic math scares you then you can keep up with your assumptions (which have no backing) and keep saying that the Reds stink and the Brewers will win:rolleyes:.

There is no assurance that Greinke with be better on a better team, heck he could get hurt in spring training and do nothing. Marcum is actually probably the easier to predict of the 2 since he is overall much more consistent than Greinke. There is no assurance that they will win more games next year, heck they could lose more games next year. I am comfortable putting their low end in the low 80's since they got rid of so much garbage, but injuries to one of their starters brings it right back.

And like I said, if you want to quote how many "wins were added" then it is only 10 wins since the people they are replacing won 13 :p:. I expect at least basic math skills from you if you want to argue anything. As for your common sense, you are clearly biased in that you are putting too much worth on these two pitchers and not actually viewing the team as a whole. I tried to remove any bias in my evaluation and actually changed some of the numbers upon request to show the results it would bring. If you find it unsatisfactory, why don't you do better. I have taken up that challenge from you before so why don't you do some real work for once.

You clearly are over stating here...

On the use of the words sabermetrics, it was sarcasm.

You still in all your "words" combined for several "paragraphs" have yet to address the position of Starters 1-5 and who they will face...

Oh and on your assertion that Greinke wont be better... Well I can not with out a doubt say he will be better but given the trend of his stuff and going to a better offensive team and somewhat better (albeit not as good for 2011 as 2010) defense, he will undoubtedly win More than 10 games, probably be closer to 16 as 2 years ago versus going 1-9 the first 2.5 months of the season... Example Roy Oswalt going from the Astros (6-12, 3.42ERA) to the Phillies (7-1, 1.74ERA)

So, go ahead, type your 2000 word essay and not answer anything.

brm7675
12-30-2010, 02:27 PM
You clearly are over stating here...

On the use of the words sabermetrics, it was sarcasm.

You still in all your "words" combined for several "paragraphs" have yet to address the position of Starters 1-5 and who they will face...

Oh and on your assertion that Greinke wont be better... Well I can not with out a doubt say he will be better but given the trend of his stuff and going to a better offensive team and somewhat better (albeit not as good for 2011 as 2010) defense, he will undoubtedly win More than 10 games, probably be closer to 16 as 2 years ago versus going 1-9 the first 2.5 months of the season... Example Roy Oswalt going from the Astros (6-12, 3.42ERA) to the Phillies (7-1, 1.74ERA)

So, go ahead, type your 2000 word essay and not answer anything.

No he answered, you just don't agree. You believe the additions as great and what will put the Brewers over the top in our division, there are those of us are not sold on either guy as having that large of an impact AND the Brewers sacrificing alot to get them and thus overall not improving their team that much.

Hondo
12-30-2010, 02:50 PM
No he answered, you just don't agree. You believe the additions as great and what will put the Brewers over the top in our division, there are those of us are not sold on either guy as having that large of an impact AND the Brewers sacrificing alot to get them and thus overall not improving their team that much.

No he didn't answer... Just putting number with other numbers doesn't take into account matchups, winnings streaks, team morale, streaks, opposing teams win %, etc...

brm7675
12-30-2010, 02:51 PM
No he didn't answer... Just putting number with other numbers doesn't take into account matchups, winnings streaks, team morale, streaks, opposing teams win %, etc...

ok...:confused:

Hondo
12-30-2010, 03:31 PM
ok...:confused:

Go think about it for a bit and come back...

brm7675
12-30-2010, 03:44 PM
Go think about it for a bit and come back...

Thought about it, he laid things out, you just don't buy into it...:rolleyes:

Hondo
12-30-2010, 04:08 PM
Thought about it, he laid things out, you just don't buy into it...:rolleyes:


Okay why didn't I think of that sooner...

:rolleyes:

brm7675
12-30-2010, 04:54 PM
Okay why didn't I think of that sooner...

:rolleyes:

You got me, his info was pretty clear cut and staright forward, not sure why it took you so long...:thumbup:

Hondo
12-30-2010, 05:16 PM
You got me, his info was pretty clear cut and staright forward, not sure why it took you so long...:thumbup:

Uh, that was Sarcasm... and it was only trading numbers, not taking variables into account...

Quatitos
12-30-2010, 06:33 PM
Uh, that was Sarcasm... and it was only trading numbers, not taking variables into account...
What variables do you want taken into account? Are you still complaining that I didn't answer you about the effect of pushing pitchers like Gallardo and Wolf down in the rotation? I said I don't think it would have much effect after the first week or two since rotations lining up after that point is based on luck depending on injuries to other pitching rotations, off days, how often the fifth starter is skipped, a lot of things. If you are complaining how I didn't take variables into account, why don't you prove that a pitcher being in the third spot in the rotation will face easier pitchers than the pitcher in the first spot after a couple of weeks have passed. Or is this post too long and wordy and the task I've set for you too hard :p:.

Also I love how you put "words" and "paragraphs" in quotes, it is highly amusing to see your apparent disdain for them. If you don't like "words" and "paragraphs" so much, might I suggest that you go watch the talking heads on TV, they might not hurt your brain so much.

I know you like only addressing the things I say that you think might be wrong and ignore what you know is right and won't admit it, but I like to actually address everything you say as opposed to tiny bits and pieces.

As for your accusation that I don't think Greinke will improve, its nice of you to put words in my mouth since I didn't say that ever. I stated in the other thread that I would expect his ERA to end up at around the 4.00 mark, +/- .5. So that is as low as 3.50 or as high as 4.5. I think he will be on the lower end of this range and I presented the numbers for if he improved to 3.5 as well as if he repeated his CY young performance. I don't see where I said he would not improve, I just didn't think he would return to his CY young numbers. As for Marcum, my projection for him is probably a little too high, but it is just my personal projection and is obviously up for debate.

Since I did not present any new information, just repetition of what I have already posted, please let me know which of your questions I did not answer for you, and I will gladly answer them. If not and you are just choosing to ignore what I type, well I'm sorry actually reading what I type hurts you and you feel the need not to do it.


No he didn't answer... Just putting number with other numbers doesn't take into account matchups, winnings streaks, team morale, streaks, opposing teams win %, etc...

Since you never asked me about winning streaks, team morale, streaks, opposing teams win %, it is actually kind of hard to answer that for you. If you can take those into account then feel free, since I don't think I am able/want to spend the time to do that. If you can't or don't want to then I don't think it is fair for you to hold it against me :p:

This post was 515 words not counting this last section helping you count them ;)

Ohioballplayer
12-30-2010, 07:08 PM
Are the two or three of you (in some cases) quite done yet, you all have made valid points, suggestions, you counted your basic math, sabermetrics, so on. Simply, neither of you can count addition or attrition because neither of you (as well as I) know what will happen in the 2011 season. Now I agree with Hondo 100000000000% about Janish, great back up, actually for 2nd, 3rd, and short as far as I am concerned for GLOVE puposes only. No on Upton if we wanted the the 150k's a year we could have kept Dunn. If we want someone cheap for left who hit well last year look no further than say, ummmmm, dare I? Andruw Jones! yeah I said it but for those who can't understand it is complete sarcasm, truth is I agree with Hondo also on ZG, he would have added another dimension to this rotation, but at the present time it is moot.

They will try to get Podsednik because he is cheap, fast, and will platoon, however if Pod decides to come here will he really be effective, small bat in a small park not a very good idea in my opinion.:thumbup:

brm7675
12-30-2010, 07:23 PM
Are the two or three of you (in some cases) quite done yet, you all have made valid points, suggestions, you counted your basic math, sabermetrics, so on. Simply, neither of you can count addition or attrition because neither of you (as well as I) know what will happen in the 2011 season. Now I agree with Hondo 100000000000% about Janish, great back up, actually for 2nd, 3rd, and short as far as I am concerned for GLOVE puposes only. No on Upton if we wanted the the 150k's a year we could have kept Dunn. If we want someone cheap for left who hit well last year look no further than say, ummmmm, dare I? Andruw Jones! yeah I said it but for those who can't understand it is complete sarcasm, truth is I agree with Hondo also on ZG, he would have added another dimension to this rotation, but at the present time it is moot.

They will try to get Podsednik because he is cheap, fast, and will platoon, however if Pod decides to come here will he really be effective, small bat in a small park not a very good idea in my opinion.:thumbup:

Why don't you think Janish can't play everyday? Also I hope with a capital HOPE that they stay as far away from Podsednik as possible, he would be a step down in every sense over what we already have on the team.

Hondo
12-30-2010, 07:57 PM
What variables do you want taken into account? Are you still complaining that I didn't answer you about the effect of pushing pitchers like Gallardo and Wolf down in the rotation? I said I don't think it would have much effect after the first week or two since rotations lining up after that point is based on luck depending on injuries to other pitching rotations, off days, how often the fifth starter is skipped, a lot of things. If you are complaining how I didn't take variables into account, why don't you prove that a pitcher being in the third spot in the rotation will face easier pitchers than the pitcher in the first spot after a couple of weeks have passed. Or is this post too long and wordy and the task I've set for you too hard :p:.

Also I love how you put "words" and "paragraphs" in quotes, it is highly amusing to see your apparent disdain for them. If you don't like "words" and "paragraphs" so much, might I suggest that you go watch the talking heads on TV, they might not hurt your brain so much.

I know you like only addressing the things I say that you think might be wrong and ignore what you know is right and won't admit it, but I like to actually address everything you say as opposed to tiny bits and pieces.

As for your accusation that I don't think Greinke will improve, its nice of you to put words in my mouth since I didn't say that ever. I stated in the other thread that I would expect his ERA to end up at around the 4.00 mark, +/- .5. So that is as low as 3.50 or as high as 4.5. I think he will be on the lower end of this range and I presented the numbers for if he improved to 3.5 as well as if he repeated his CY young performance. I don't see where I said he would not improve, I just didn't think he would return to his CY young numbers. As for Marcum, my projection for him is probably a little too high, but it is just my personal projection and is obviously up for debate.

Since I did not present any new information, just repetition of what I have already posted, please let me know which of your questions I did not answer for you, and I will gladly answer them. If not and you are just choosing to ignore what I type, well I'm sorry actually reading what I type hurts you and you feel the need not to do it.



Since you never asked me about winning streaks, team morale, streaks, opposing teams win %, it is actually kind of hard to answer that for you. If you can take those into account then feel free, since I don't think I am able/want to spend the time to do that. If you can't or don't want to then I don't think it is fair for you to hold it against me :p:

This post was 515 words not counting this last section helping you count them ;)

See what I mean? You didn't answer anything or debate it... Just talked smack on me about Quotations...

So give me your take on Winning Streaks, Strength of Schedule, Opposing teams schedule, Slumps, Starting Pitching Match Ups 1-5, etc...

Or wait, you could just type another 515 words and Not make any contribution to the thread...

Hondo
12-30-2010, 08:23 PM
Are the two or three of you (in some cases) quite done yet, you all have made valid points, suggestions, you counted your basic math, sabermetrics, so on. Simply, neither of you can count addition or attrition because neither of you (as well as I) know what will happen in the 2011 season. Now I agree with Hondo 100000000000% about Janish, great back up, actually for 2nd, 3rd, and short as far as I am concerned for GLOVE puposes only. No on Upton if we wanted the the 150k's a year we could have kept Dunn. If we want someone cheap for left who hit well last year look no further than say, ummmmm, dare I? Andruw Jones! yeah I said it but for those who can't understand it is complete sarcasm, truth is I agree with Hondo also on ZG, he would have added another dimension to this rotation, but at the present time it is moot.

They will try to get Podsednik because he is cheap, fast, and will platoon, however if Pod decides to come here will he really be effective, small bat in a small park not a very good idea in my opinion.:thumbup:

I agree with you too on Janish... The only reason I liked Upton was his potential to get back to .380OBP and the Speed/Runs plus the Outstanding Defense he would provide in Left, but I am content with Gomes and Heisey in on late in Games...

SS has to be improved though...

Quatitos
12-31-2010, 03:39 AM
See what I mean? You didn't answer anything or debate it... Just talked smack on me about Quotations...

So give me your take on Winning Streaks, Strength of Schedule, Opposing teams schedule, Slumps, Starting Pitching Match Ups 1-5, etc...

Or wait, you could just type another 515 words and Not make any contribution to the thread...
Yes, I didn't answer you even though I answered the questions you accused me of not answering, and I answered them like 2 or 3 times just to make sure you would actually read them.

Answer to your original question about the order and what effects it would have.

I think you will see Gallardo in the 1 or 2 spot, depending on how loyal the team wants to be, but then you would see Marcum down in the 3 spot. You would see that if everyone's rotations lined up nice, but after the first week or so everyone's rotations will be in different spots and the order doesn't really matter because your #5 could be facing a #1. Something like that is hard to predict and I wouldn't venture to guess if it would have a positive impact on their record or not, it really depends on luck.

Second answer to the same question after you didn't read the first one

I said I don't think it would have much effect after the first week or two since rotations lining up after that point is based on luck depending on injuries to other pitching rotations, off days, how often the fifth starter is skipped, a lot of things. If you are complaining how I didn't take variables into account, why don't you prove that a pitcher being in the third spot in the rotation will face easier pitchers than the pitcher in the first spot after a couple of weeks have passed.

If you want to keep accusing me of not answering your question then all you are showing is your inability to actually read something. If you want me to write more about it then don't try knocking me for having posts longer than 2 or 3 sentences.

Your question about "your take on Winning Streaks, Strength of Schedule, Opposing teams schedule, Slumps" you asked after accusing me of not answering your questions. If you want me to answer what my take on winning streaks, strength of schedule, etc. I don't even know what you want me to say. That is such a broad question I honestly don't know what to do with it especially if you don't want to read an essay. If you want me to try and predict what effect they would have on the Brewers then don't expect an answer because I don't claim to be psychic.

185 words here, I can do this every time for you, let me know when it is short enough :p:

brm7675
12-31-2010, 12:01 PM
I agree with you too on Janish... The only reason I liked Upton was his potential to get back to .380OBP and the Speed/Runs plus the Outstanding Defense he would provide in Left, but I am content with Heisey in LF...

SS thankfully has been improved over last season though...

There you go fixed it for you....:thumbup:

Hondo
12-31-2010, 02:39 PM
Yes, I didn't answer you even though I answered the questions you accused me of not answering, and I answered them like 2 or 3 times just to make sure you would actually read them.

Answer to your original question about the order and what effects it would have.


Second answer to the same question after you didn't read the first one


If you want to keep accusing me of not answering your question then all you are showing is your inability to actually read something. If you want me to write more about it then don't try knocking me for having posts longer than 2 or 3 sentences.

Your question about "your take on Winning Streaks, Strength of Schedule, Opposing teams schedule, Slumps" you asked after accusing me of not answering your questions. If you want me to answer what my take on winning streaks, strength of schedule, etc. I don't even know what you want me to say. That is such a broad question I honestly don't know what to do with it especially if you don't want to read an essay. If you want me to try and predict what effect they would have on the Brewers then don't expect an answer because I don't claim to be psychic.

185 words here, I can do this every time for you, let me know when it is short enough :p:

You showed everyone with your lack of knowledge by saying Managers don't put any emphasis on the Pitching order after the first week of the Season...

Matchups are prevalent in the Game.

It doesn't take me 515 or 185 words to get to the point, and No you didn't answer, you said it didn't matter which couldn't be further from the truth.

Happy New Years with your Smilies...

Hondo
12-31-2010, 02:40 PM
There you go fixed it for you....:thumbup:

Nice try BDSM... Not my quote sir.

Quatitos
12-31-2010, 07:14 PM
You showed everyone with your lack of knowledge by saying Managers don't put any emphasis on the Pitching order after the first week of the Season...

Matchups are prevalent in the Game.

It doesn't take me 515 or 185 words to get to the point, and No you didn't answer, you said it didn't matter which couldn't be further from the truth.

Happy New Years with your Smilies...

Since that is not what I said, please learn to read. I don't think I ever even used the word managers in there so how could I conclude that managers don't put an emphasis on pitching order after the first week of the season. They have the order so that the best pitchers pitch the most and can skip the pitchers lower in the order if they need to for important games. I said there is no real way to say that the 3 and 4 pitchers for the Brewers will be facing other 3 and 4 pitchers on other teams after the first couple of weeks because other clubs rotations will not be perfectly alligned with the Brewers. Because of that it is hard to say Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf will see an improvement by not being in the 1/2 spots since it is impossible to predict how opposing rotations will line up.

If you want an example, say the Brewers play a 3 game series against the cards and the rotations line up like so:
Wainwright vs Greinke
Carpent vs Gallardo
Garcia vs Marcum

and then they play the Phillies and the rotations line up like this:
Halladay vs Wolf
Lee vs Brewers #5(too lazy to look up his name)
Hamels vs Greinke
Oswalt vs Gallardo

An extreme case of course since that is 2 of the best top of the rotations in the NL, but it is not unlikely that they could face the top 1-2-3 pitchers of clubs back to back and hence being pushed down in the rotation wouldn't have helped those pitchers.

The flip side is that the #1 and #2 pitchers face a #4 and #5 and then the #3 and #4 face a #1 and #2. Like I said, after the first couple of weeks it is hard to predict how the rotations will all line up, and because of this the effect of being pushed down in the rotation is hard to predict.

Like I have said before if you would like to do some sort of analysis and prove me wrong then feel free to, since I have in know way proved this and it is just my opinion. If you do any real analysis of the effects of this then I will continue to discuss it with you, if not then I consider the topic done and will give up on having any form of real debate with you since you either don't read my answers or refuse to actually understand what I say and morph my words around into something I didn't actually write.

Once again, I am not saying it has no effect, I am just saying what effect it would have is very hard to predict because of the numerous factors involved. Clearly match ups matter, but trying to predict what pitchers will match up 2 months into the season isn't possible.
^Just so you know, this is my conclusion and answer to you since you generally can't find it.