PDA

View Full Version : People need to take a HUGE breath



brm7675
12-27-2010, 07:43 PM
All I keep reading is how the Reds are sitting on their hands and doing nothing to improve their team and how everyone else in the Central has either made major moves or will make major moves and so on. People, please, put down the rope and relax. Lets remember that outside of Votto and maybe Rolen, most of the starting Reds last year did not play up to their expected abilities. So there is no reason to think that Bruce, Stubbs, Hannigan and phillips won't put up better numbers next season. Right now we have one glaring weak spot and that is LF, and yes I hope Walt does address it, but what if that addressing comes in the form of Chris Heisey or Todd Frazier? I see no reason why Votto can't put up similar numbers, he sure has enough motiviation to do so. Our pitching staff is only going to get better. This year we get a full year of Wood and Leake will be able to go more innings.

The only team in the central that has done anything are the Brewers, a team that was 14 games back will have a new manager this year and a very close eye on it because if they don't get started fast watch for some major talent to be traded by the trading deadline. No other team has done anything close to improving themselves that much to pass the Reds, so please, relax, enjoy the HSL and remember Rome wasn't built in a day.:thumbup:

Hondo
12-27-2010, 08:20 PM
All I keep reading is how the Reds are sitting on their hands and doing nothing to improve their team and how everyone else in the Central has either made major moves or will make major moves and so on. People, please, put down the rope and relax. Lets remember that outside of Votto and maybe Rolen, most of the starting Reds last year did not play up to their expected abilities. So there is no reason to think that Bruce, Stubbs, Hannigan and phillips won't put up better numbers next season. Right now we have one glaring weak spot and that is LF, and yes I hope Walt does address it, but what if that addressing comes in the form of Chris Heisey or Todd Frazier? I see no reason why Votto can't put up similar numbers, he sure has enough motiviation to do so. Our pitching staff is only going to get better. This year we get a full year of Wood and Leake will be able to go more innings.

The only team in the central that has done anything are the Brewers, a team that was 14 games back will have a new manager this year and a very close eye on it because if they don't get started fast watch for some major talent to be traded by the trading deadline. No other team has done anything close to improving themselves that much to pass the Reds, so please, relax, enjoy the HSL and remember Rome wasn't built in a day.:thumbup:

And they brought in 23 Wins

brm7675
12-27-2010, 08:53 PM
And they brought in 23 Wins

How did they bring in 23 wins? They brought in 2 starting pitchers who could fall flat on their faces, they brought in a RP, wow 1 change in what was one of the worse pen's in baseball. Really, if you think that adding those 3 players is that big then more power to you...

Hondo
12-27-2010, 11:12 PM
How did they bring in 23 wins? They brought in 2 starting pitchers who could fall flat on their faces, they brought in a RP, wow 1 change in what was one of the worse pen's in baseball. Really, if you think that adding those 3 players is that big then more power to you...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6427

13 Wins

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883

10 Wins

Oh and I guess I was wrong... It was 25 wins if ya count Saito...

My Bad.

Kiss the Baby00
12-27-2010, 11:28 PM
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6427

13 Wins

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883

10 Wins

Oh and I guess I was wrong... It was 25 wins if ya count Saito...

My Bad.

you cant argue logic with retards. they are illogical.

Az. Reds Fan
12-28-2010, 12:19 AM
And they brought in 23 Wins

They also brought in 22 losses...just sayin'

Quatitos
12-28-2010, 01:26 AM
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6427

13 Wins

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883

10 Wins

Oh and I guess I was wrong... It was 25 wins if ya count Saito...

My Bad.

Well if that isn't a horrible way to look at how many wins were possibly added to the Brewers record.

According to http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/112441674.html

The additions of Greinke and Marcum will give Roenicke many options as to how to align his starting rotation. The general thinking is that Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum will line up in some fashion as the top three, with left-handers Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson at the bottom of pack.


I will try and look at this in terms of win projects based off the last season, while taking into account what was replaced. Brewers starters accounted for a record of 52-56. Of the three brewers expected to to stay in the rotation, they went a combined 12-9 + 13-12 + 14-7 = 39-28. So if we go by saying how many wins were "added" to the team. Then you could replace the other 2 spots in the rotation, which went a combined 13-28 with the combined record of Greinke and Marcum which was 10-14 and 13-8 respectively which is 23-22, effectively "adding" 10 wins only assuming they are replacing the bottom 2 pitchers in the rotation.

Even this is not a satisfactory way to access what was added to the starting rotation of the brewers lineup, since so many things factor into win numbers than just the starting pitcher. Also, don't even bother quoting how many wins Saito "adds" to the Brewers, because if wins aren't a good way to gauge the impact a starting pitcher has, then wins for a reliever are about 10 times as useless as that. We will just count Saito as one good addition to a very bad bullpen.

It better to look at it in terms of runs allowed, although that is not ideal because there are still a lot of factors that go into it but it is easy to analyze, and we will look at the stats with only respect to last year. The Brewers starters accounted for a 4.65 ERA, in 921 innings. When you consider the contributions from the three starters expected to remain in the Brewers rotation, the other 2 spots in the rotation accounted for 69 starts, 352 IP, and a 5.21 ERA. When you put Marcum and Greinke into this rotation, along with the remaining starts left over using these average stats for the "6th starter spot" for any spots starts needed due to injury, the team ERA goes down to 4.17 and would have ranked tied for 16th with the Twins and Red Sox. For reference the Reds starting pitchers ERA was 4.05 (13th) last season and the Cardinals was 3.50 (2nd).

Numbers:

2010 Wolf Gallar Narve Other Grein Marc Spot Starts NewRotation
starts 162 34 31 28 69 33 31 5 162
IP 921 216 185 168 352 220 195 26 1010
ERA 4.65 4.17 3.84 4.99 5.21 4.17 3.64 5.21 4.17


For next season I would predict Marcum staying consistent in his ERA around 3.5-4.00, and I would possibly predict Greinke somewhere in the 4.00 range +/- .5 since I don't want to look at how much more hitters friendly the NL central is compared to the AL central. So, based off this limited evaluation of what the Brewers are replacing, you will probably see them run about middle of the pack in terms of runs allowed, maybe slightly better depending on injuries and performance of the rotation, since there is a big dropoff when it comes to what replaces any of those startes since the Brewers lack the depth that the Reds have in the starting rotation.

Quatitos
12-28-2010, 02:00 AM
Just a little follow up to analyze what wins would have been added had Greinke and Marcum been pitching for the Brewers last season (since I used last years stats, thats what it pretty much is). With the new starters stats of 4.17 ERA and 1010 innings, this will affect the stats of the bullpen as well. With the starters posting more innings this will in turn affect the innings that the bullpen will be required to work. Also assuming a lower workload for the bullpen it can be assumed that the better arms in the pen won't be overused and the not so good arms in the pen will not have to be put into tough situations, allowing their stats to improve slightly.

In 2010 the Brewers bullpen posted a 4.48 ERA over 518 innings, with my projected stats for the "new" Brewers rotation, the bullpen would only be required to work 429 innings and I will say that the bullpen will see a slight improvement and post a 4.23 ERA. Taking these stats into account the total team ERA will be lowered to 4.19 from 4.59.

Now I will look at the effect this would have on Runs allowed. Last season the Brewers had 70 unearned runs, and since I am using the same defense that should stay the same. Based off the new team ERA of 4.19, the earned runs allowed would be lowered to 679. So the total runs allowed would come out to 749. With Milwaukee scoring 750 runs last season and using the Pythag, I would expect them to have a 50% win percentage. This would end up 81-81 versus the 77-85 they posted last season, so it could be expected that adding these 2 pitchers would have added a total of 4 wins to the Brewers team last season. The Brewers did perform 2 wins better than their expected Pythag last season so you could additionally add those 2 wins onto this hypothetical record and the wins added would increase to 6.

UPRedsFan
12-28-2010, 10:38 AM
All this assumes Greinke doesn't improve his numbers from last year.

Have to figure in the effect of going to the NL with no designated hitter. His ERA should drop below 4 just because of that. If he's playing for a team with a better offense, i.e. more competitive, he may perform a little better himself. May be more loose, less afraid of giving up one run because he knows Fielder, Braun, Hart and Weeks will get them back in the game.

I'd say the estimates in this thread a little low. Greinke will be around 3.50 and the Brewers may be in the 88 - 90 win territory this year.

But having said all that, I still like our pitching better. No one, can beat the Reds depth of starting pitching. Not the Giants, not the Phillies, not the Brewers, not the Cards. It's a long season, things happen, you need 6 or 7 starters. I think the Reds will have 3 guys below a 4.0 ERA this year. Maybe 4 if Volquez is ok. The 3 will be Cueto, Wood for sure, and 1 of Arroyo-Leake-Bailey.

will5979
12-28-2010, 11:04 AM
I have a horrible feeling that we will not repeat the division in 2011, especially without a legit leadoff man AND another big bat in the lineup. I actually had a dream last night that it was April and we were struggling big time (I know I'm obsessed with Reds baseball). Again, pitching is fine, we need more offense, that is all.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 12:26 PM
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6427

13 Wins

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883

10 Wins

Oh and I guess I was wrong... It was 25 wins if ya count Saito...

My Bad.

That was last year, on different teams in different leagues.

Red Rover
12-28-2010, 12:57 PM
I have a horrible feeling that we will not repeat the division in 2011, especially without a legit leadoff man AND another big bat in the lineup. I actually had a dream last night that it was April and we were struggling big time (I know I'm obsessed with Reds baseball). Again, pitching is fine, we need more offense, that is all.

2010 season stats says otherwise. The 2010 offense had the following line
.272/.436/.774 and ranked in the top 5 of MLB most of the year. The 2010 defense ended the season with a .988 fielding%, first in all of MLB.

Now the pitching was another story. They were middle of the road for the season. Now, do I think the pitching will improve in 2011? Probably. With the subtracton of Harang, additions of Wood & Chapman all year, the return of Volkie and Leake being able to pitch more innings, I think the pitching will be fine. This is not even mentioning the depth. The only weak spot could be the bullpen with the loss of Rhodes.

This does not sound like a team that needs to be adding a lot of pieces. Yes, there are few weak spots(LF, SS, Closer, ACE pitcher), but with a limited budget, you can only do so much. I look forward to an improved 2011 Reds team, with or without changes.

Hondo
12-28-2010, 02:03 PM
2010 season stats says otherwise. The 2010 offense had the following line
.272/.436/.774 and ranked in the top 5 of MLB most of the year. The 2010 defense ended the season with a .988 fielding%, first in all of MLB.

Now the pitching was another story. They were middle of the road for the season. Now, do I think the pitching will improve in 2011? Probably. With the subtracton of Harang, additions of Wood & Chapman all year, the return of Volkie and Leake being able to pitch more innings, I think the pitching will be fine. This is not even mentioning the depth. The only weak spot could be the bullpen with the loss of Rhodes.

This does not sound like a team that needs to be adding a lot of pieces. Yes, there are few weak spots(LF, SS, Closer, ACE pitcher), but with a limited budget, you can only do so much. I look forward to an improved 2011 Reds team, with or without changes.

That is everyones point though... LF, SS, ACE Pitcher, Closer (maybe)

If the front office would have addressed one of these weak spots... I don't think people would be wary or upset...

But with the Reds interested in Scott Posednik... That is not something I am "stoked" about... The guy stole a bunch of bases but got caught an awful lot too... and is a year older... and the main thing he brings his speed, which doesn't get better with age... I would rather have Hesiey for 550 AB's that Podsenik at all...

I feel BJ Upton is a low risk - high ceiling possible player who is available... Would be great in Left for Defense and I would hope the change of scenery and being around this offense would help him back to his .380 OBP days... Guy has extra bases all over the place and would knock 40 Doubles, smack 20 HR, and Steal 40-50 bases for the Reds IMO...

Cutting the K's is a major issue but like I said, if he can get back to the .383-.386 OBP from a few years ago... He might be an ALL-Star

brm7675
12-28-2010, 02:04 PM
2010 season stats says otherwise. The 2010 offense had the following line
.272/.436/.774 and ranked in the top 5 of MLB most of the year. The 2010 defense ended the season with a .988 fielding%, first in all of MLB.

Now the pitching was another story. They were middle of the road for the season. Now, do I think the pitching will improve in 2011? Probably. With the subtracton of Harang, additions of Wood & Chapman all year, the return of Volkie and Leake being able to pitch more innings, I think the pitching will be fine. This is not even mentioning the depth. The only weak spot could be the bullpen with the loss of Rhodes.

This does not sound like a team that needs to be adding a lot of pieces. Yes, there are few weak spots(LF, SS, Closer, ACE pitcher), but with a limited budget, you can only do so much. I look forward to an improved 2011 Reds team, with or without changes.

I would challenge the 3 of those. To me the only "need" issue is LF. I believe Janish can more then handle the SS position and do enough at bat. We have ACE pitchers, in fact we are overloaded in pitching and we have a closer and others who can do that job in house already. Find a good LF with a strong bat and we are set.

Hondo
12-28-2010, 02:14 PM
I would challenge the 3 of those. To me the only "need" issue is LF. I believe Janish can more then handle the SS position and do enough at bat. We have ACE pitchers, in fact we are overloaded in pitching and we have a closer and others who can do that job in house already. Find a good LF with a strong bat and we are set.

Oh I thought Heisey could handle LF and it was "Not" a Team "Need" issue for 2011?

Better read your posts...

Quatitos
12-28-2010, 02:15 PM
All this assumes Greinke doesn't improve his numbers from last year.

Have to figure in the effect of going to the NL with no designated hitter. His ERA should drop below 4 just because of that. If he's playing for a team with a better offense, i.e. more competitive, he may perform a little better himself. May be more loose, less afraid of giving up one run because he knows Fielder, Braun, Hart and Weeks will get them back in the game.

I'd say the estimates in this thread a little low. Greinke will be around 3.50 and the Brewers may be in the 88 - 90 win territory this year.

But having said all that, I still like our pitching better. No one, can beat the Reds depth of starting pitching. Not the Giants, not the Phillies, not the Brewers, not the Cards. It's a long season, things happen, you need 6 or 7 starters. I think the Reds will have 3 guys below a 4.0 ERA this year. Maybe 4 if Volquez is ok. The 3 will be Cueto, Wood for sure, and 1 of Arroyo-Leake-Bailey.

If I substitute a 3.5 ERA for Greinke then the wins come out to be 83 to 84, and if I put in his best year (2.18) it gets 85 to 86 wins. For reference, Bill James' projection is a 3.54 ERA (I don't know if the projection is before or after the trade).

It must be taken into account that the Brewers top 5 in the rotation will not each start 32 to 33 games in all likelihood and the Brewers traded away some of their top young pitching so what is left will probably be a big drop off in quality if the Brewers have to use anyone else to start. Think of it like the crap the Cardinals had to start throwing out there to start when they went through some injuries in the rotation. You might see an 88 to 90 win team from this rotation with the offense they have, but you would probably have to assume perfect health to achieve something like that.

Hondo
12-28-2010, 02:24 PM
If I substitute a 3.5 ERA for Greinke then the wins come out to be 83 to 84, and if I put in his best year (2.18) it gets 85 to 86 wins. For reference, Bill James' projection is a 3.54 ERA (I don't know if the projection is before or after the trade).

It must be taken into account that the Brewers top 5 in the rotation will not each start 32 to 33 games in all likelihood and the Brewers traded away some of their top young pitching so what is left will probably be a big drop off in quality if the Brewers have to use anyone else to start. Think of it like the crap the Cardinals had to start throwing out there to start when they went through some injuries in the rotation. You might see an 88 to 90 win team from this rotation with the offense they have, but you would probably have to assume perfect health to achieve something like that.

I read your posts, but I woudl assume adding Marcum and Greinke with Gallardo and Wolf, etc... would improve the whole team much more than to 83-85 Wins...

But that is based on just looking at it from a "team" prospective... Wouldnt u assume Wolf and Gallardo and Naverson win more games because they all move down 2 slots in the rotation and face other teams 3-4-5 starters?

Quatitos
12-28-2010, 02:54 PM
I read your posts, but I woudl assume adding Marcum and Greinke with Gallardo and Wolf, etc... would improve the whole team much more than to 83-85 Wins...

But that is based on just looking at it from a "team" prospective... Wouldnt u assume Wolf and Gallardo and Naverson win more games because they all move down 2 slots in the rotation and face other teams 3-4-5 starters?

I think you will see Gallardo in the 1 or 2 spot, depending on how loyal the team wants to be, but then you would see Marcum down in the 3 spot. You would see that if everyone's rotations lined up nice, but after the first week or so everyone's rotations will be in different spots and the order doesn't really matter because your #5 could be facing a #1. Something like that is hard to predict and I wouldn't venture to guess if it would have a positive impact on their record or not, it really depends on luck.

If you want to look at it that way you could argue that Greinke and the other pitcher put in the #2 spot (Gallardo or Marcum) could be facing a lot of #1 and #2 from other teams, so they could only end up in the low teens in wins again even though they are the best 2 pitchers on the team. That is under the assumption they would face other #1 and #2 pitchers, which like I said, its really kind of up to luck after the first week or 2 of the season.

Red Rover
12-28-2010, 03:14 PM
Upgrades are not necessary to improve the 2010 team. The youth movement is here with more to come. A small market team can't afford to mortgage the future for slight improvements. Yes there are weak spots that could be addressed this offseason, but what if these upgrades keeps us from signing Votto/Cueto and others long term. And if they don't sign, then a small market team will need cheap qualtity youth to replace them.

I'm not a Gomes or Janish fan, but I think that the team offense and defense were way above average last season. Why the urgency to fix what isn't broke.

bubbachunk
12-28-2010, 03:26 PM
Everyone clamoring for moves seems to forget that young players espicially ones that are entering their prime are than likely to improve not regress.

Stubbs, Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake, Heisey, Chapman, Bray, and Francisco are canidates to improve due to youth so even if only half of them improve as hoped/expected it would still be an overall net gain for the team.

brm7675
12-28-2010, 03:30 PM
I read your posts, but I woudl assume adding Marcum and Greinke with Gallardo and Wolf, etc... would improve the whole team much more than to 83-85 Wins...

But that is based on just looking at it from a "team" prospective... Wouldnt u assume Wolf and Gallardo and Naverson win more games because they all move down 2 slots in the rotation and face other teams 3-4-5 starters?

Not neccessarily, also they have weaken themselves defensivly which will hurt their pitching.

Vottomatic
12-28-2010, 03:49 PM
I took a huge breath and I still feel bad about the Reds chances. :D

UPRedsFan
12-28-2010, 06:23 PM
Take another. Maybe you'll feel better when they're in Arizona and Heisey, Frazier, Fransisco and Alonzo are knocking the cover off the ball in spring games and forcing Dusty to think differently about left field. And Bailey, Leake, Wood, and Volquez are looking dominant. We are the Minnesota Twins of the NL Central. We'll be there in the end every year with a chance to win.

Vottomatic
12-29-2010, 09:53 AM
Take another. Maybe you'll feel better when they're in Arizona and Heisey, Frazier, Fransisco and Alonzo are knocking the cover off the ball in spring games and forcing Dusty to think differently about left field. And Bailey, Leake, Wood, and Volquez are looking dominant. We are the Minnesota Twins of the NL Central. We'll be there in the end every year with a chance to win.

Okay, I'm semi-kidding.

The glass half full people are counting on improvement from all the young guys on the team. I listened to Marty on the HSL last night and really thinks the starting pitching will be even better this year as these young guys continue to mature. They also look at how Bruce and Stubbs really emerged in the second half last year, and expect more of the same.

I will agree that if all of them continue to improve, this team should win the Central again.

But I'm not going to discount or underestimate the moves made by the Brewers. Nor am I gonna underestimate the Cardinals starting pitching. I think the Cards organization/players really has a bug up their you know what about how last year ended. I look for them to hit next season hard.

Back to the Reds. If Votto gets a 1 year arbitration deal, he will be playing for arbitration contract again. Same for alot of these young guys. Phillips is in a contract season. Could really have these guys working and pushing themselves hard for those big paychecks. :D

brm7675
12-29-2010, 12:45 PM
Okay, I'm semi-kidding.

The glass half full people are counting on improvement from all the young guys on the team. I listened to Marty on the HSL last night and really thinks the starting pitching will be even better this year as these young guys continue to mature. They also look at how Bruce and Stubbs really emerged in the second half last year, and expect more of the same.

I will agree that if all of them continue to improve, this team should win the Central again.

But I'm not going to discount or underestimate the moves made by the Brewers. Nor am I gonna underestimate the Cardinals starting pitching. I think the Cards organization/players really has a bug up their you know what about how last year ended. I look for them to hit next season hard.

Back to the Reds. If Votto gets a 1 year arbitration deal, he will be playing for arbitration contract again. Same for alot of these young guys. Phillips is in a contract season. Could really have these guys working and pushing themselves hard for those big paychecks. :D

The Cards really don't scare me, outside of Carpenter who is getting older and has mental issues and injury issues, Wainwright and Albert, who else really scares you on that team...surprise team next year will be the Stros...

Quatitos
12-29-2010, 03:23 PM
The Cards really don't scare me, outside of Carpenter who is getting older and has mental issues and injury issues, Wainwright and Albert, who else really scares you on that team...surprise team next year will be the Stros...
Agreed on Carpenter, I think if he gets into a bad start in the first half you might see a mental collapse of epic proportions. If he is outperformed by Wainwright and Garcia again I don't know if he could handle being the #3 in the rotation with that ego of his. And of course, how would he explain to his son that he is the third starter now ;).

Hondo
12-29-2010, 03:48 PM
The Cards really don't scare me, outside of Carpenter who is getting older and has mental issues and injury issues, Wainwright and Albert, who else really scares you on that team...surprise team next year will be the Stros...

Your suprise team is the Astros? Ha Ha

They will be battling all year for 4th place in the Division...

Vottomatic
12-29-2010, 04:36 PM
Didn't the Astros have the best record in the NL after the All-Star break? Kinda reminds me of the '09 Reds.

Stros might surprise now that they have a young team like the Reds.

brm7675
12-29-2010, 04:49 PM
Your suprise team is the Astros? Ha Ha

They will be battling all year for 4th place in the Division...

i would disagree, as we saw in the final few months of the season, this team needs to be watched out for. they won't win the division but they will make it interesting.

Hondo
12-29-2010, 06:33 PM
i would disagree, as we saw in the final few months of the season, this team needs to be watched out for. they won't win the division but they will make it interesting.

What are you and Vottomattic basing your Opinions on the Astros Improving next year... They have Question Marks all the way around the Diamond and the Bench and down into the Bull Penn... :confused:

brm7675
12-29-2010, 06:57 PM
What are you and Vottomattic basing your Opinions on the Astros Improving next year... They have Question Marks all the way around the Diamond and the Bench and down into the Bull Penn... :confused:

Yes they do, doens't mean that they can't be a surprise team next season, no one figured the Reds to do what they did last season or the padres or even the Giants and looked at what happened. No one has said they will win the division, just that they are going to suprise people and could finish in the top half of the division. I think I had them at like around 81-84 wins next year.

Hondo
12-29-2010, 07:02 PM
Yes they do, doens't mean that they can't be a surprise team next season, no one figured the Reds to do what they did last season or the padres or even the Giants and looked at what happened. No one has said they will win the division, just that they are going to suprise people and could finish in the top half of the division. I think I had them at like around 81-84 wins next year.

So they will Improve and be a suprise "just because"

Oh, okay!

:rolleyes:

brm7675
12-29-2010, 07:18 PM
So they will Improve and be a suprise "just because"

Oh, okay!

:rolleyes:

Look at what the Astros did after the All Star break and after they traded away Oswalt and Berkman. They matched the Reds pretty much record wise. I think you underestimate their young talent.

Hondo
12-29-2010, 07:39 PM
Look at what the Astros did after the All Star break and after they traded away Oswalt and Berkman. They matched the Reds pretty much record wise. I think you underestimate their young talent.

Ok you're right that the Astors played better but it wasn't after they dealt Oswalt and Berkman, it all started May 31st and they went 59-52 to the Reds 61-49...

brm7675
12-29-2010, 07:50 PM
Ok you're right that the Astors played better but it wasn't after they dealt Oswalt and Berkman, it all started May 31st and they went 59-52 to the Reds 61-49...

Look at their W/L differintial after the all star break...

Hondo
12-29-2010, 08:11 PM
Look at their W/L differintial after the all star break...

They played 2 games less than the Reds so the same as May 31st

PeteRoseBelongs
12-29-2010, 10:22 PM
you guys are making my brain hurt

Hondo
12-29-2010, 10:27 PM
you guys are making my brain hurt

Dude, would you please read bdsm's posts... I am trying to reason with him!

:cool:

MikeThierry
01-05-2011, 02:08 AM
Didn't the Astros score the most runs in baseball after the All Star Break? I know there are question marks but every team in the central has question marks. I just think their starting rotation is setting up nicely with Rodriguez, Happ, and Myers. The might struggle getting to the closer position but I think they have a nice young closer. I agree with Votto that we need to watch out for the Astros. They could be a dark horse team.

At any rate, the NL Central will be competitive. For those not scared of the Cardinals, thats fine, but as someone said earlier, they are still pissed from how things ended. They got rid of some of the knuckleheadedness in the club house (Lopez and Ryan) and picked up some intriguing players. There are question marks whether Theriot and Berkman will play well but it is at least intriguing to have a Cardinals lineup that consists of Berkman, Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, and David Freese. It certainly looks more potent than last years lineup, barring injuries of course. At least they have more players that have better OBP's than last years team.

There are people certainly questioning the offseason moves by the Cards but I'm holding off judgment until we actually start playing games. Berkman could be a disaster in the outfield but it could also work if his bat returns to Puma form, esp. hitting in front of Pujols.

Hondo
01-05-2011, 02:14 PM
Didn't the Astros score the most runs in baseball after the All Star Break? I know there are question marks but every team in the central has question marks. I just think their starting rotation is setting up nicely with Rodriguez, Happ, and Myers. The might struggle getting to the closer position but I think they have a nice young closer. I agree with Votto that we need to watch out for the Astros. They could be a dark horse team.

At any rate, the NL Central will be competitive. For those not scared of the Cardinals, thats fine, but as someone said earlier, they are still pissed from how things ended. They got rid of some of the knuckleheadedness in the club house (Lopez and Ryan) and picked up some intriguing players. There are question marks whether Theriot and Berkman will play well but it is at least intriguing to have a Cardinals lineup that consists of Berkman, Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, and David Freese. It certainly looks more potent than last years lineup, barring injuries of course. At least they have more players that have better OBP's than last years team.

There are people certainly questioning the offseason moves by the Cards but I'm holding off judgment until we actually start playing games. Berkman could be a disaster in the outfield but it could also work if his bat returns to Puma form, esp. hitting in front of Pujols.

I don't think their pitching is any where near the Elite teams in the league... They may be like the Rockies of the 1990's with all stick and no pitch...

MikeThierry
01-05-2011, 03:33 PM
Well I could argue that the Reds don't have Elite pitching as well considering that they haven't developed an ace. That doesn't mean I don't like the Reds pitching and it doesn't mean that the Reds won't be competitive enough to win the Central again. I think the same is true with the Astros. Anytime there is a team that can run Wandy Rodriguez, JA Happ, and Brett Myers back to back, will give other teams problems. Do they have the pitching the Cards, Brewers, or Reds have. No. There are still problems in the bullpen until you get to their closer. However they are in much better shape than the Pirates and Cubs right now. I can just see them being competitive on a nightly basis. They will give a lot of teams trouble when facing them.

My point is just don't overlook them, they might sneak up on you.

Hondo
01-05-2011, 03:41 PM
Well I could argue that the Reds don't have Elite pitching as well considering that they haven't developed an ace. That doesn't mean I don't like the Reds pitching and it doesn't mean that the Reds won't be competitive enough to win the Central again. I think the same is true with the Astros. Anytime there is a team that can run Wandy Rodriguez, JA Happ, and Brett Myers back to back, will give other teams problems. Do they have the pitching the Cards, Brewers, or Reds have. No. There are still problems in the bullpen until you get to their closer. However they are in much better shape than the Pirates and Cubs right now. I can just see them being competitive on a nightly basis. They will give a lot of teams trouble when facing them.

My point is just don't overlook them, they might sneak up on you.

Understood. I also agree with you that this team has No definitive Ace Starter...

MikeThierry
01-05-2011, 03:46 PM
The Reds are kind of confounding to me. It seems they are the kind of team that is built to win the regular season but not in the playoffs. Who do you see on your pitching staff that could develop into an ace? Looking at Wainwrights progression, he was practically lights out from day one and he had Ace type stuff. He saved the Cardinals from total collapse in the world series run. You could tell he was going to be The Guy in several years like he is now. Do any of the Reds pitchers have that "it" factor?

Hondo
01-05-2011, 04:21 PM
The Reds are kind of confounding to me. It seems they are the kind of team that is built to win the regular season but not in the playoffs. Who do you see on your pitching staff that could develop into an ace? Looking at Wainwrights progression, he was practically lights out from day one and he had Ace type stuff. He saved the Cardinals from total collapse in the world series run. You could tell he was going to be The Guy in several years like he is now. Do any of the Reds pitchers have that "it" factor?

I don't know... I feel Leake has great command and Poise and looks like a Greg Maddux out there... Will he be another Maddux? I highly doubt it but that's who he looks like out on the Mound... Travis Wood looks like the Real Deal to me... Kinda like an Al Leiter or Chuck Finley... Wood just looks like a Gamer...

Bailey could figure it out but he is far from Elite... I would like to see him as a Closer kinda like Mariano Rivera went from so-so starter with a 96 MPH Fastball to the best closer of all time with a Cutter, and Bailey knows the Cutter...

Cueto is hard to tell... He reminds me of the Expos pitcher Ken Hill with his body type and stuff...

Arroyo is the Rock for 240 Innings who would be perfect in the 3 hole but he will be the Opening Day Starter No doubt facing Greinke of the Brewers...

Volquez is an enigma... His 17 win season he started out awesome and each month his ERA got worse during that season... I don't know what he will do but I know he has electric stuff... IMO I thought he should have been traded based on potential for a Lead Off Hitter... (Jose Reyes for Volquez could have been posssible)

I really wanted the Reds to add Zach Greinke but the Front Office failed me...

bounty37h
01-05-2011, 04:26 PM
The Reds are kind of confounding to me. It seems they are the kind of team that is built to win the regular season but not in the playoffs. Who do you see on your pitching staff that could develop into an ace? Looking at Wainwrights progression, he was practically lights out from day one and he had Ace type stuff. He saved the Cardinals from total collapse in the world series run. You could tell he was going to be The Guy in several years like he is now. Do any of the Reds pitchers have that "it" factor?

I truely feel Leake will be that guy, with Wood there as well. I think Vol and Cueto can have dominating stuff, but haven't seen them be able to pull it together esp when things get rough consistantly-they will hopefully improve and become that type of pitcher. Leake and Wood will hopefully become our 1-2 Aces, but not currently at that level.

Hondo
01-05-2011, 04:44 PM
I truely feel Leake will be that guy, with Wood there as well. I think Vol and Cueto can have dominating stuff, but haven't seen them be able to pull it together esp when things get rough consistantly-they will hopefully improve and become that type of pitcher. Leake and Wood will hopefully become our 1-2 Aces, but not currently at that level.

The names Wood and Leake just sound like Aces don't they!?

bounty37h
01-05-2011, 05:48 PM
The names Wood and Leake just sound like Aces don't they!?

They do, and seem to also have the mental makeup for it as well as the arms. I remember watching Leake in the CWS and thinking he was the cream of the crop in college that year talent wise, just so overshadowed by Strasburg mania. I only dreamed at that time he would be a Red.