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View Full Version : Off of ORG: Your challenge: Improve the team for $6M



Vottomatic
01-02-2011, 06:49 PM
Its rumored that the team offered Rhodes a 1 year deal for ~$4M and also offered Renteria a deal (i am guessing for ~$2M). It possible that the team wouldn't have done both of those deals but it seems there is at least $4M & maybe $6M in the budget. I wonder if its really ~$8M as I can't believe Walt doesn't also have ~$2M set aside for a left hitting outfielder. We have heard all winter that the Reds are 'at payroll'. Yet when we all added up the salary committments we got nowhere near $80M. I suspect the Reds being 'at payroll' included Walt setting aside $6-8M for LF, SS & Rhodes.

Now the challenge! Find the best way to improve the team if the Reds have either $4M, $6M or $8m to spend.

A) My $4M scenario. Pretty simple. Chapman to the pen to take Rhodes spot. Renteria at ~$2M for backup shortstop. Lewis or Edmonds at ~$2M for left field. Not great but it does add some value to the 25 man roster.

B) My $6M scenario. Chapman to the pen to take Rhodes spot. Renteria at ~$2M for backup shortstop. Trade Gomes to an AL team that could use help at DH. The Red Sox might as Ortiz can't hit lefties. The Yankees might as Posada may do a little catching. Rangers seem another possibility. The prospect we get back doesn't matter much. The trade is to free up $1.8M. The Reds use that $1.8M & the $4M left & trade for Kelly Johnson who will make ~$6M in arbitration. Based on what Willingham & DeJesus went for, I suspect a B & a C prospect would get it done. Maybe Valaika & one of our many relief pitchers stacking up in AAA. Johnson leads off & plays left field. He also adds another much needed (IMO) left handed bat to our lineup.

C) My $8M scenario is the same as the $6M scenario except we keep Gomes. Johnson can play 2B ( and maybe 3B?) so Gomes would still get some starts in left versus a right handed pitcher. If Heisey looks great in the spring the team could still deal Gomes prior to opening day (if it looked like he wouldn't get much playing time).

An alternative $8M is to use the 'B' scenario and use the $2M to try to sign a cheap lefty reliever to replace Rhodes in the pen. That frees up Chapman to be in the rotation.

What do folks think? Do you believe the team has $4-8M to spend? If so how best could Walt spend it? - Will M

I trade one of our young starting pitchers and a prospect to Cleveland for Shin Soo-Choo and make him our starting leadoff man and LFer.

LF Choo (LH)
2B Phillips (RH)
1B Votto (LH)
3B Rolen (RH)
RF Bruce (LH)
CF Stubbs (RH)
C Hanigan (RH)
SS Janish (RH)

mattfeet
01-02-2011, 07:04 PM
I was thinking of another move altogether, but I REALLY like the idea of Choo being a Red, so Ill just say "Ditto" to what you just said.


Ditto.


-matt

BLark = HOF
01-02-2011, 10:54 PM
I know we all as Reds fan would like the FO to make a big trade, with us giving up a SP and in return we get a good OF or a good SS. But in reality I think we all know that is not going to happen this off-season. I do think that closer to the trade deadline something will happen pending on the Reds record. But I would sign Scotty Pods b/c he is good against righties while Gomes is simply not good. And honestly I don't know why I say this, but I would sign Renteria. I know the guy is old, but I do believe the guy is better than OCab and may be the best option for what the Reds are looking for in a SS.

Kingspoint
01-03-2011, 01:46 AM
I'll improve the team for nothing.

Fire Dusty Baker and have Rick Sweet take his place.

Well, it wouldn't be nothing, I guess.

The cost of Rick Sweet's Major League salary for managing the team for 2011 would be somewhere around $1M, or perhaps $800K.

I think we'd get 3 to 5 more wins with Sweet than we'll get with Baker.

Tadasimha
01-03-2011, 02:50 PM
Deal Jonny Gomes and Edinson Volquez to Tampa Bay for Matt Garza and B J Upton. Then deal Upton to Cleveland for Choo.

Rotation:
Garza
Arroyo
Cueto
Leake
Woods/Bailey

Lineup as listed above already

brm7675
01-03-2011, 02:57 PM
Deal Jonny Gomes and Edinson Volquez to Tampa Bay for Matt Garza and B J Upton. Then deal Upton to Cleveland for Choo.

Rotation:
Garza
Arroyo
Cueto
Leake
Woods/Bailey

Lineup as listed above already

why would TB make that deal?

Kiss the Baby00
01-03-2011, 03:27 PM
Sign Fred Lewis to a 1 year deal for 1mm with an option for yr 2. and save the rest. The FO has stated MULTIPLE times that there will not be any major moves as they are happy with the team they have.

brm7675
01-03-2011, 03:55 PM
I trade one of our young starting pitchers and a prospect to Cleveland for Shin Soo-Choo and make him our starting leadoff man and LFer.

LF Choo (LH)
2B Phillips (RH)
1B Votto (LH)
3B Rolen (RH)
RF Bruce (LH)
CF Stubbs (RH)
C Hanigan (RH)
SS Janish (RH)

Why do people think the Indian's are willing to give up Choo?

brm7675
01-03-2011, 03:58 PM
Sign Fred Lewis to a 1 year deal for 1mm with an option for yr 2. and save the rest. The FO has stated MULTIPLE times that there will not be any major moves as they are happy with the team they have.

Why on god's green earth would you sign Fred Lewis to anything?

Kiss the Baby00
01-03-2011, 04:15 PM
Why on god's green earth would you sign Fred Lewis to anything?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/reds-interested-in-fred-lewis.html

Vottomatic
01-03-2011, 04:22 PM
Why do people think the Indian's are willing to give up Choo?

Because they suck with Choo, and if the right offer came along to better their ballclub, they'd be stupid to not part with Choo.

Why keep one good player if you can gain 2 or 3 good players?
And maybe the team willing to give up 3 good players for one good player has one specific need to better their team and have excess players at certain positions, ready to be dealt?

Are you saying Choo = Pujols? Votto? Is Untradeable?

Doubtful. Choo is the type of player that will be dealt for the right offer. :thumbup:

brm7675
01-03-2011, 04:25 PM
Because they suck with Choo, and if the right offer came along to better their ballclub, they'd be stupid to not part with Choo.

Why keep one good player if you can gain 2 or 3 good players?
And maybe the team willing to give up 3 good players for one good player has one specific need to better their team and have excess players at certain positions, ready to be dealt?

Are you saying Choo = Pujols? Votto? Is Untradeable?

Doubtful. Choo is the type of player that will be dealt for the right offer. :thumbup:

You know Choo can produce, what guarentee is there that what they get in return can?

brm7675
01-03-2011, 04:27 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/reds-interested-in-fred-lewis.html

Ugg I think may upchuck....

swaisuc
01-03-2011, 04:39 PM
Because they suck with Choo, and if the right offer came along to better their ballclub, they'd be stupid to not part with Choo.

Why keep one good player if you can gain 2 or 3 good players?
And maybe the team willing to give up 3 good players for one good player has one specific need to better their team and have excess players at certain positions, ready to be dealt?

Are you saying Choo = Pujols? Votto? Is Untradeable?

Doubtful. Choo is the type of player that will be dealt for the right offer. :thumbup:


Choo is a great player that is cheap. Not a ton of those floating around. With that said, anyone is tradable if you are willing to overpay so of course it is possible. When I start thinking about dealing a package of Cueto, Alonso, along with whatever other prospects, I get gunshy. I don't care how good he is or how much he helps this year, that is scary to part with the kind of talent it would take.

Its easy to say, well I don't want to overpay, but you can't make dealing for a team's best player (who doesn't make much) your main priority unless you're willing to do whatever it takes to get him.

Hondo
01-03-2011, 04:54 PM
They are not going to trade Choo with his Salary...

Sizemore is on the block but you guys wouldnt want him anyway, but I would... Lead off and Left field ...

BEETTLEBUG
01-03-2011, 05:51 PM
True Hondo I was all for getting Sizemore for leadoff and leftfield to start with.

markymark69
01-03-2011, 05:58 PM
I trade one of our young starting pitchers and a prospect to Cleveland for Shin Soo-Choo and make him our starting leadoff man and LFer.

LF Choo (LH)
2B Phillips (RH)
1B Votto (LH)
3B Rolen (RH)
RF Bruce (LH)
CF Stubbs (RH)
C Hanigan (RH)
SS Janish (RH)

You already alienated yourself by talking trade - we can't trade any young players because this board goes absolutely nuts (i.e. Zach Drysdale, I mean Stewart included in the Rolen trade).

I like it personally, but Choo would be costly - and this board would abolutely blow up.

brm7675
01-03-2011, 06:07 PM
You already alienated yourself by talking trade - we can't trade any young players because this board goes absolutely nuts (i.e. Zach Drysdale, I mean Stewart included in the Rolen trade).

I like it personally, but Choo would be costly - and this board would abolutely blow up.

I think it would depend on whom. I would offer either Wood or Leake or Bailey and maybe a "B" level prospect for him, but not much more.

brm7675
01-03-2011, 06:09 PM
They are not going to trade Choo with his Salary...

Sizemore is on the block but you guys wouldnt want him anyway, but I would... Lead off and Left field ...

not worth it, his career is over look at his numbers, they are trending down and he can't stay healthy, no want on this team....

Hondo
01-03-2011, 07:27 PM
I think it would depend on whom. I would offer either Wood or Leake or Bailey and maybe a "B" level prospect for him, but not much more.

I wouldnt trade Wood or Leake straight up for Choo...

Bailey Maybe possibly but it doesn't matter.. Choo is cheap and productive and that is what Cleveland Needs...

Quatitos
01-03-2011, 07:55 PM
I wouldnt trade Wood or Leake straight up for Choo...

Bailey Maybe possibly but it doesn't matter.. Choo is cheap and productive and that is what Cleveland Needs...
Agreed, if Cleveland was to move one of their good outfielders, it would be Sizemore.

Also on the Sizemore topic, I think the price would be too high right now along with the fact he is going to make $7.5mil this season which the front office say isn't in the budget. I do like the idea of trading for him around the trade deadline assuming he returns to his normal form though, we would also miss half of his pay for the season as well as the price in prospects should be cheaper (although if he has proved he is healthy then it may be higher than right now since there is some uncertainty, this is kind of harder to predict).

Sizemore also has an option for next year for $8.5mil with a $500k buyout. If he were to perform well you could keep him for another year with the flexibility provided by Cordero coming off the books and possibly Phillips.

Hondo
01-03-2011, 08:03 PM
Agreed, if Cleveland was to move one of their good outfielders, it would be Sizemore.

Also on the Sizemore topic, I think the price would be too high right now along with the fact he is going to make $7.5mil this season which the front office say isn't in the budget. I do like the idea of trading for him around the trade deadline assuming he returns to his normal form though, we would also miss half of his pay for the season as well as the price in prospects should be cheaper (although if he has proved he is healthy then it may be higher than right now since there is some uncertainty, this is kind of harder to predict).

Sizemore also has an option for next year for $8.5mil with a $500k buyout. If he were to perform well you could keep him for another year with the flexibility provided by Cordero coming off the books and possibly Phillips.

What is your opinion on Phillips after 2011? I don't know if his production will be worth the Salary he will want moving forward...

OGB
01-03-2011, 09:14 PM
You already alienated yourself by talking trade - we can't trade any young players because this board goes absolutely nuts (i.e. Zach Drysdale, I mean Stewart included in the Rolen trade).

I like it personally, but Choo would be costly - and this board would abolutely blow up.

The Yankees haven't been the same since they dealt Ed Yarnall, Brandon Claussen, and Wily Mo Pena to the Reds.

Vottomatic
01-03-2011, 09:16 PM
I wouldnt trade Wood or Leake straight up for Choo...

Bailey Maybe possibly but it doesn't matter.. Choo is cheap and productive and that is what Cleveland Needs...

Choo is arbitration eligible and due for a big raise. He's no longer THAT CHEAP.

Cot's Baseball Contracts verifies that.

Vottomatic
01-03-2011, 09:23 PM
Choo is a great player that is cheap. Not a ton of those floating around. With that said, anyone is tradable if you are willing to overpay so of course it is possible. When I start thinking about dealing a package of Cueto, Alonso, along with whatever other prospects, I get gunshy. I don't care how good he is or how much he helps this year, that is scary to part with the kind of talent it would take.

Its easy to say, well I don't want to overpay, but you can't make dealing for a team's best player (who doesn't make much) your main priority unless you're willing to do whatever it takes to get him.

AGAIN.........Choo is arbitration eligible. He is due a pretty good raise.

I'd trade anyone of the young starting pitchers except Travis Wood. I'd give Cleveland their pick of Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, or Leake. I'd give them Alonso. That's a quality starting major league pitcher and a quality former #1 draft pick that put up good numbers last year after fully recovering from his previous injuries. We have no place for Alonso to play. I'd even trade them one of the triple A outfielders, such as Dorn or Sappelt. That's a pretty good haul. I'd even throw in one of the triple A relievers who can't stay up with the major league club such as Fisher. Cueto, Alonso, Sappelt, Fisher to Cleveland for Choo. Other than Cueto, who are you going to miss? Alonso will never play full time with the Reds as long as Votto is here or as long as Joey isn't hurt, but Yonder is a sure-fire major leaguer. Sappelt has too many people ahead of him. Fisher can't stay up either. That's a proven major league starter, a triple A player with nothing left to prove along with being a former #1 pick, and 2 guys with potential, one that blew through the minors last year to triple A with solid stats, and another reliever who has tasted the major leagues.

Frankly, I'm not so sure it's not paying too much, but I'm willing to do it, because I'd only miss Cueto. Our major league outfield is stacked, so no room for Sappelt, but he's a good prospect headed to the majors with someone. Our first base is stacked with Votto, but Alonso will play in the majors with someone.

Choo fills a HUGE need. And his price tag is going up with arbitration this year.

mattfeet
01-03-2011, 09:36 PM
Id deal Leake + Alonso for Choo. Im in the minority it seems, but I see Mike Leake as one of our most expendable SPs at the moment.

-Matt

Quatitos
01-03-2011, 10:11 PM
What is your opinion on Phillips after 2011? I don't know if his production will be worth the Salary he will want moving forward...

It will depend a lot on what Brandon can do this season. If we see the Brandon we saw last season in the #2 spot with a .306/.364/.472 then it would probably be worth it because of how important it is to get someone on in front of Votto. I don't know if Phillips can keep up that good of a line, but I do think he can pull off something in the neighborhood of .290/350/.450 especially being in front of Votto so he will get some good pitches to hit. I do really like Phillips in the #2 spot and think it works very well to keep him from trying to play outside his game, see my comments here for why: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2310670&postcount=22

Even if he plays about to his average, I might want to keep him around for his defense because of the young pitching staff. With the young pitching staff being relatively cheap, we might be able to afford paying Phillips more than his bat calls for to keep the infield defense together.

Walt might also try and give him a couple more years on his contract at a discount, and I think Phillips might have enough good will towards the team and community to accept a pay cut for a chance to stay with the team. If he can match his batting #2 split for a whole season then I can't complain for what he is paid, but if not then $12 million is a bit too much. If he puts up his overall line of .275/.330/.440 from the past 3 years then I would like Walt to work out something more like the extension he got Rolen to sign. If Walt could do that then I would like to see Phillips stay around.

Hondo
01-03-2011, 10:59 PM
I would sign Jeremy Hermida to a minor league contract and stand pat...

Wait!?

:cool:

mattfeet
01-04-2011, 09:46 AM
It will depend a lot on what Brandon can do this season. If we see the Brandon we saw last season in the #2 spot with a .306/.364/.472 then it would probably be worth it because of how important it is to get someone on in front of Votto. I don't know if Phillips can keep up that good of a line, but I do think he can pull off something in the neighborhood of .290/350/.450 especially being in front of Votto so he will get some good pitches to hit. I do really like Phillips in the #2 spot and think it works very well to keep him from trying to play outside his game, see my comments here for why: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2310670&postcount=22

Even if he plays about to his average, I might want to keep him around for his defense because of the young pitching staff. With the young pitching staff being relatively cheap, we might be able to afford paying Phillips more than his bat calls for to keep the infield defense together.

Walt might also try and give him a couple more years on his contract at a discount, and I think Phillips might have enough good will towards the team and community to accept a pay cut for a chance to stay with the team. If he can match his batting #2 split for a whole season then I can't complain for what he is paid, but if not then $12 million is a bit too much. If he puts up his overall line of .275/.330/.440 from the past 3 years then I would like Walt to work out something more like the extension he got Rolen to sign. If Walt could do that then I would like to see Phillips stay around.

Good post. Hit the nail on the head, IMO.

-Matt

Tadasimha
01-04-2011, 10:29 AM
why would TB make that deal?

TB might be looking to dump salary and Garza is apparently available for the right deal. TB gets pitcher and outfielder for less money and the Reds get a TOR pitcher.

Cant Touch This
01-04-2011, 10:51 AM
I do not want the Reds to part with Wood nor Leake. I know they've each completed one season of service, so it's far too premature to assign them labels, but if these two can develop into this decade's version of Glavine and Maddux, I want the Reds to be in control of that duo.

I know it's a huge "IF," but it's an intriguing one. Again, Wood is only 100 innings into his MLB career, but his numbers are remarkably better than Glavine's first 100 innings. (In fact, with the exception of 1988, it took Glavine about 3.5 seasons to really hit his groove - but when he did, he was fantastic.)

Same with Maddux. His first 180 innings were unimpressive and his rise to stardom began with his third season (second full season.) Still, it wasn't until his 5th season until he produced All-Star type numbers, and then once he got traded to Atlanta those All-Star numbers transformed into Hall of Fame numbers.

I'm not suggesting Travis Wood and Mike Leake are locks to become Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux. I'm not suggesting either one of them has a spot reserved for them in Cooperstown. But I am saying that both of them put up better numbers in their first full season of work than the duo of Glavine and Maddux.

Given the potential, I don't want to see that tandem broken up for a one-year rental like Choo who will likely become too expensive for Cincinnati in 2012. If the Reds can land someone like Choo without sacrificing Leake, Wood, Cueto, Chapman, or Masset - then I may be more supportive. I think those guys represent the core of our rotation and bullpen for this season and beyond (with Chapman potentially moving into a starter's role in 2012.)

I think Volquez can be trade bait, but probably not yet. His perceived value is likely not going to return to its peak unless he demonstrates a full recovery from surgery. Given that, I'd rather see him wearing Cincinnati Red and hope he returns to 2008 form.

Bailey is the biggest question mark in my opinion. He has shown flashes of the brilliance that warranted the 7th overall selection in 2004, but really only one stretch that suggested he could sustain that brilliance over a significant period of time - and that was the last two months of the 2009 season. One thing to keep in mind is that while it seems like Bailey has been around for awhile - he has logged only 300 major league innings. Comparing his first 300 innings to pitchers such as Glavine and Maddux - he's right in line. It's just not that uncommon for pitchers to hit their stride during their 4th or 5th full season of work, and I'd hate for Bailey to start achieving his star potential wearing a Cleveland uniform.

Potential is a big word and the Reds staff is loaded with it. I think the Front Office is wise to exercise patience with our young core of starters. Outside of Arroyo, the SP with the most major league innings in our rotation is Cueto.

Innings Pitched:
Cueto - 531 (3 seasons)
Volquez - 388 (6 seasons)
Bailey - 304 (4 seasons)
Leake - 138 (1 season)
Wood - 102 (1 season)

I've used Maddux and Glavine, two elite pitchers, as a basis for comparison for Leake and Wood. Here are some others:

Nolan Ryan: Put up good, but not stellar numbers his first 4 seasons. Really hit his stride in his 5th full season when traded to California. He went from an ERA of 3.97 and WHIP of 1.586 in 1971 to an ERA of 2.28 and WHIP of 1.138 in in 1972. His K total jumped from 137 (his career high to that point) all the way up to a whopping 329. Granted he threw more innings, but his K/9 increased from 8.1 to 10.4 and his hits/9 dropped from 7.4 to 5.3.

The Mets traded Nolan Ryan (and three others) to the Angels for Jim Fregosi. (Fregosi went on to hit .232 with 5 dingers and 32 RBIs for the Mets in 1972.)

Roger Clemens blossomed in his third full season of work. (He was 232 innings into his career). He was good right out of the gate, but became incredibly good in his third season.

With the exception of one All-Star selection season, it took Randy Johnson nearly 1000 innings before he became a perennial Cy Young Award candidate.

Pedro Martinez won the ROY with L.A. in 1993. He then put up very good numbers with the Expos in 1994. Over the next two years (95-96) he was good, but not "Pedro Martinez" good. He hit his stride in 1997, and that stride documented 7 trips to the All Star Game and 3 Cy Young awards. He was 669 innings into his career when he exploded.

So yes, I'm hand plucking some huge, huge names from the past, but the point is this: Not many pitchers reach their stride before the 500-inning mark (or later.) Not one single pitcher in our starting rotation outside Arroyo has reached even the 400-inning mark.

I think it's simply too early to give up hope on any of these guys. Could you imagine what it would be like if all of them hit that stride this year or next? It would be quite possibly the most menacing starting rotation in all of baseball, and yes, that includes Philly, San Fran, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. Maybe I'm too optimistic when I envision the days of Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Neagle, and Avery, but the core of that Atlanta rotation won a whole lot of ballgames. I'd like to see what our guys can do over the next year or two before cutting one (or more) loose for a LF.

My solution? Chris Heisey. Like our pitchers, he's young. He needs innings. If the Reds want to spell him on occasion with Hermida (a lefty) - then that's fine. But I'd like to see him get substantial playing time this Spring and well into the season to further his development. His defense combined with Stubbs and Bruce would round out a very, very good outfield, and I may be in the minority here, but I think he can be special at the plate, too - given enough time to develop.

I'm torn about SS. I think Janish's defense is tremendous and in my opinion he's earned the opportunity to prove himself the starter. If the Reds are somehow able to land someone like Jose Reyes who could be inserted at the top of the lineup, then that's a different story. I'm not excited about someone like Renterria taking Janish's innings where he could be developing like Heisey. So I guess in my opinion, at the SS position, it's either go big or stay put with Janish.

That's all I have to say about that.

bounty37h
01-04-2011, 11:08 AM
Id deal Leake + Alonso for Choo. Im in the minority it seems, but I see Mike Leake as one of our most expendable SPs at the moment.

-Matt

I honestly think Leake has the most potential in our organization to be honest with you. I personally would keep him over any SP we have.

Vottomatic
01-04-2011, 02:34 PM
I do not want the Reds to part with Wood nor Leake. I know they've each completed one season of service, so it's far too premature to assign them labels, but if these two can develop into this decade's version of Glavine and Maddux, I want the Reds to be in control of that duo.

I know it's a huge "IF," but it's an intriguing one. Again, Wood is only 100 innings into his MLB career, but his numbers are remarkably better than Glavine's first 100 innings. (In fact, with the exception of 1988, it took Glavine about 3.5 seasons to really hit his groove - but when he did, he was fantastic.)

Same with Maddux. His first 180 innings were unimpressive and his rise to stardom began with his third season (second full season.) Still, it wasn't until his 5th season until he produced All-Star type numbers, and then once he got traded to Atlanta those All-Star numbers transformed into Hall of Fame numbers.

I'm not suggesting Travis Wood and Mike Leake are locks to become Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux. I'm not suggesting either one of them has a spot reserved for them in Cooperstown. But I am saying that both of them put up better numbers in their first full season of work than the duo of Glavine and Maddux.

Given the potential, I don't want to see that tandem broken up for a one-year rental like Choo who will likely become too expensive for Cincinnati in 2012. If the Reds can land someone like Choo without sacrificing Leake, Wood, Cueto, Chapman, or Masset - then I may be more supportive. I think those guys represent the core of our rotation and bullpen for this season and beyond (with Chapman potentially moving into a starter's role in 2012.)

I think Volquez can be trade bait, but probably not yet. His perceived value is likely not going to return to its peak unless he demonstrates a full recovery from surgery. Given that, I'd rather see him wearing Cincinnati Red and hope he returns to 2008 form.

Bailey is the biggest question mark in my opinion. He has shown flashes of the brilliance that warranted the 7th overall selection in 2004, but really only one stretch that suggested he could sustain that brilliance over a significant period of time - and that was the last two months of the 2009 season. One thing to keep in mind is that while it seems like Bailey has been around for awhile - he has logged only 300 major league innings. Comparing his first 300 innings to pitchers such as Glavine and Maddux - he's right in line. It's just not that uncommon for pitchers to hit their stride during their 4th or 5th full season of work, and I'd hate for Bailey to start achieving his star potential wearing a Cleveland uniform.

Potential is a big word and the Reds staff is loaded with it. I think the Front Office is wise to exercise patience with our young core of starters. Outside of Arroyo, the SP with the most major league innings in our rotation is Cueto.

Innings Pitched:
Cueto - 531 (3 seasons)
Volquez - 388 (6 seasons)
Bailey - 304 (4 seasons)
Leake - 138 (1 season)
Wood - 102 (1 season)

I've used Maddux and Glavine, two elite pitchers, as a basis for comparison for Leake and Wood. Here are some others:

Nolan Ryan: Put up good, but not stellar numbers his first 4 seasons. Really hit his stride in his 5th full season when traded to California. He went from an ERA of 3.97 and WHIP of 1.586 in 1971 to an ERA of 2.28 and WHIP of 1.138 in in 1972. His K total jumped from 137 (his career high to that point) all the way up to a whopping 329. Granted he threw more innings, but his K/9 increased from 8.1 to 10.4 and his hits/9 dropped from 7.4 to 5.3.

The Mets traded Nolan Ryan (and three others) to the Angels for Jim Fregosi. (Fregosi went on to hit .232 with 5 dingers and 32 RBIs for the Mets in 1972.)

Roger Clemens blossomed in his third full season of work. (He was 232 innings into his career). He was good right out of the gate, but became incredibly good in his third season.

With the exception of one All-Star selection season, it took Randy Johnson nearly 1000 innings before he became a perennial Cy Young Award candidate.

Pedro Martinez won the ROY with L.A. in 1993. He then put up very good numbers with the Expos in 1994. Over the next two years (95-96) he was good, but not "Pedro Martinez" good. He hit his stride in 1997, and that stride documented 7 trips to the All Star Game and 3 Cy Young awards. He was 669 innings into his career when he exploded.

So yes, I'm hand plucking some huge, huge names from the past, but the point is this: Not many pitchers reach their stride before the 500-inning mark (or later.) Not one single pitcher in our starting rotation outside Arroyo has reached even the 400-inning mark.

I think it's simply too early to give up hope on any of these guys. Could you imagine what it would be like if all of them hit that stride this year or next? It would be quite possibly the most menacing starting rotation in all of baseball, and yes, that includes Philly, San Fran, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. Maybe I'm too optimistic when I envision the days of Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Neagle, and Avery, but the core of that Atlanta rotation won a whole lot of ballgames. I'd like to see what our guys can do over the next year or two before cutting one (or more) loose for a LF.

My solution? Chris Heisey. Like our pitchers, he's young. He needs innings. If the Reds want to spell him on occasion with Hermida (a lefty) - then that's fine. But I'd like to see him get substantial playing time this Spring and well into the season to further his development. His defense combined with Stubbs and Bruce would round out a very, very good outfield, and I may be in the minority here, but I think he can be special at the plate, too - given enough time to develop.

I'm torn about SS. I think Janish's defense is tremendous and in my opinion he's earned the opportunity to prove himself the starter. If the Reds are somehow able to land someone like Jose Reyes who could be inserted at the top of the lineup, then that's a different story. I'm not excited about someone like Renterria taking Janish's innings where he could be developing like Heisey. So I guess in my opinion, at the SS position, it's either go big or stay put with Janish.

That's all I have to say about that.

Good fact-filled post. I'm somewhat convinced that patience might be the answer.

I already agreed about giving Heisey the minutes in LF.

Hondo
01-04-2011, 04:21 PM
TB might be looking to dump salary and Garza is apparently available for the right deal. TB gets pitcher and outfielder for less money and the Reds get a TOR pitcher.

I would rather go with the Pitchers the team has right now and deal for a Starting Shortstop who can lead off... I really think there must be some 3 way trade to send Cordero out of here and get Reyes from the Mets here...

brm7675
01-04-2011, 04:24 PM
I would rather go with the Pitchers the team has right now and deal for a Starting Shortstop who can lead off... I really think there must be some 3 way trade to send Cordero out of here and get Reyes from the Mets here...

Cordero is going no where right now, maybe and it is a big maybe that at the trading deadline they can trade him, but at that point why would the Reds. As for Reyes, please, he is overpriced and has way to many injury issues to warrent giving up anyone for him. The starting SS on opening day is going to be either Edgar or Orlando with janish backing one of them up. Your leadoff man will either be Stubbs or Phillips.

Hondo
01-04-2011, 04:26 PM
Cordero is going no where right now, maybe and it is a big maybe that at the trading deadline they can trade him, but at that point why would the Reds. As for Reyes, please, he is overpriced and has way to many injury issues to warrent giving up anyone for him. The starting SS on opening day is going to be either Edgar or Orlando with janish backing one of them up. Your leadoff man will either be Stubbs or Phillips.

Phillips needs to stay in the 2 hole where he bats .055 points higher than in the Lead off Role...

Stubbs at this point is the only player that fits the lead off bill so far...

brm7675
01-04-2011, 04:47 PM
Phillips needs to stay in the 2 hole where he bats .055 points higher than in the Lead off Role...

Stubbs at this point is the only player that fits the lead off bill so far...

You didn't like my other choice of Ryan Hannigan...not sure wise because the objective of the leadoff hitter is to get on base and Ryan does that pretty well...

Hondo
01-04-2011, 04:55 PM
You didn't like my other choice of Ryan Hannigan...not sure wise because the objective of the leadoff hitter is to get on base and Ryan does that pretty well...

How about instead of putting a Round Peg into a Square hole, the Reds actually acquire a Lead Off Hitter...

Crazy Idea I know...

bounty37h
01-05-2011, 04:37 PM
How about instead of putting a Round Peg into a Square hole, the Reds actually acquire a Lead Off Hitter...

Crazy Idea I know...

Corky?

brm7675
01-05-2011, 04:47 PM
How about instead of putting a Round Peg into a Square hole, the Reds actually acquire a Lead Off Hitter...

Crazy Idea I know...

A) Because there are few out there
B) We have in house players who can fill the bill

Hondo
01-05-2011, 04:51 PM
A) Because there are few out there
B) We have in house players who can fill the bill

A) True.
B) You are Wrong.

brm7675
01-05-2011, 04:53 PM
A) True.
B) You are Wrong.

What do you think a leadoff hitter must have numbers wise and how do say Stubbs or Phillips or even Hannigan don't have that make the possible lead off hitters?

Hondo
01-05-2011, 05:00 PM
What do you think a leadoff hitter must have numbers wise and how do say Stubbs or Phillips or even Hannigan don't have that make the possible lead off hitters?

Be duriable and at least a .375 OBP and have Speed...

brm7675
01-05-2011, 05:30 PM
Be duriable and at least a .375 OBP and have Speed...

i agree with the first two...but why is speed important in this slot and not others?