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View Full Version : Reds better off than @ this time last year



Ron Madden
01-03-2011, 11:58 AM
So says John Fay.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110102/SPT04/301020057/1062/SPT/Reds-figure-to-be-better-in-2011

Do you agree ?

edabbs44
01-03-2011, 12:00 PM
I agree.

TRF
01-03-2011, 09:18 PM
I agree too. It is amazing what can happen when high end talent gets a chance to mature. Hopefully Bailey matures into at least a solid #3.

Cedric
01-03-2011, 09:44 PM
Who in the world would dispute this? Of course the Reds are better with their own talent maturing, guys like Chapman, Wood, Stubbs, and Bruce.

I think people are just worried that other teams in the division have gotten much better. Doubt anyone is arguing the Reds are worse today than this time last year.

Ghosts of 1990
01-04-2011, 12:46 PM
At best, Push. While some youngsters have matured a little bit; Rolen is a year older. Phillips has more wear and tear on the tires. Rhodes is now gone. Cordero is a ticking time bomb in some folks eyes. Of course, I think that Harang isn't going to be pitching against #1 guys is a plus. Some would say the fact he won't be pitching at all is a plus. I don't think we're necessarily better than last year--but when you look at the beginning of seasons like 2005, 2006, 2007, etc. we are A LOT further along. We are in the mix, we are relevant. But heading into last year I knew we would be pretty tough to beat.

PuffyPig
01-04-2011, 01:58 PM
Of course, I think that Harang isn't going to be pitching against #1 guys is a plus.

When has he ever pitched agaisnt the other team's #1 starter, other than on a random basis?

Pitchers pitch against the other team's rotation on a random basis. Harang has pitched against the other team's best pitcher about 20% of the time.

PuffyPig
01-04-2011, 02:02 PM
But heading into last year I knew we would be pretty tough to beat.


So tough to beat that you predicted we would go 83-79?

Ghosts of 1990
01-04-2011, 02:11 PM
When has he ever pitched agaisnt the other team's #1 starter, other than on a random basis?

Pitchers pitch against the other team's rotation on a random basis. Harang has pitched against the other team's best pitcher about 20% of the time.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=haranaa01&t=p&year=2010

Carpenter, Zambrano, Josh Johnson to open the season. Carpenter again three starts later. And you're right rotations get jumbled because of staggered off days, injuries, etc.

You might be in the camp that Harang wasn't that bad. I don't think he should have faced a #1 starter even 1% of the time. Every 5th time out or 20% of the time (possibly reduced from 25% or 30% because he didn't end up making a full seasons worth of starts) it was nearly a guaranteed loss because he couldn't hang with #1's. So from this standpoint we're better already.

Ghosts of 1990
01-04-2011, 02:14 PM
So tough to beat that you predicted we would go 83-79?

The fact that I even predicted a team who hadn't had a winning record in how many seasons to have a winning record means I thought they would be pretty tough. How many people were gun shy? I was one of them. People did it every year with the Reds. I was trying to make a wise and conservative yet accurate prediction. It was probably also before the rosters were finalized. I still didn't see them as being better than the Cardinals, no. But heading into last year, 83 wins qualifies as pretty tough to me with the way things had went in the previous decade.

PuffyPig
01-04-2011, 03:17 PM
The fact that I even predicted a team who hadn't had a winning record in how many seasons to have a winning record means I thought they would be pretty tough. How many people were gun shy? I was one of them. People did it every year with the Reds. I was trying to make a wise and conservative yet accurate prediction. It was probably also before the rosters were finalized. I still didn't see them as being better than the Cardinals, no. But heading into last year, 83 wins qualifies as pretty tough to me with the way things had went in the previous decade.

Saying a team is "pretty tough to beat" means you consider them the odds on favorite to win.

Yet you expected the Cards to be better?

PuffyPig
01-04-2011, 03:22 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=haranaa01&t=p&year=2010

Carpenter, Zambrano, Josh Johnson to open the season. Carpenter again three starts later. And you're right rotations get jumbled because of staggered off days, injuries, etc.



Only Johnson was his team's #1 starter last year.

It's an old wives tale that #1 starters face #1 starters etc.

It gets mixed up almost immediately.

Ghosts of 1990
01-04-2011, 04:29 PM
Saying a team is "pretty tough to beat" means you consider them the odds on favorite to win.

Yet you expected the Cards to be better?

That's not what "pretty tough to beat" means to me. In terms of the NL Central its being in the hunt, being within 5 games of the team that wins the division.

Ghosts of 1990
01-04-2011, 04:48 PM
Only Johnson was his team's #1 starter last year.

It's an old wives tale that #1 starters face #1 starters etc.

It gets mixed up almost immediately.

Only guy who ended up with the #1 best number on his respective team but Chris Carpenter was a #1, as was Zambrano and if you want me to dig I'll find some more #1's who Harang pitched against. But does it really matter? Him throwing against a 2 or 3 was still a huge disadvantage whether it was Jaime Garcia or Rowland Smith or Hiroki Kuroda (twice), etc.

He also pitched against Roy Halladay.

PuffyPig
01-04-2011, 10:17 PM
Only guy who ended up with the #1 best number on his respective team but Chris Carpenter was a #1, as was Zambrano and if you want me to dig I'll find some more #1's who Harang pitched against. But does it really matter? Him throwing against a 2 or 3 was still a huge disadvantage whether it was Jaime Garcia or Rowland Smith or Hiroki Kuroda (twice), etc.

He also pitched against Roy Halladay.

No it doesn't matter, as pitchers pitch randomly against other teams' starters.

Sure he pitched agaisnt some #1 starters, randomness ensures that.

corkedbat
01-05-2011, 01:28 AM
Are they better than this time last year? Yeah, somewhat. Is that good enough to win the division again? Debateable.

Alot rests on the shoulders of Rolen and Gomes, IMO. If they get near the same perfornance for each, then they should be fine. I would prefer that they add on more piece from the outside that is a clear upgrade. Probably won't happen, but I've had a feeling that Walt will still make a move on par with the Chapman signing (or even more surprising) - I may be wrong, but that feeling is still there.