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View Full Version : FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]



camisadelgolf
01-05-2011, 01:19 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-chat-12510/
Here are the Reds highlights:

12:24
[Comment From Dane]
I love the new FanGraphs Leader board. Found this yesterday . . . Joey Votto's infield flyball rate last year was 0.0%. He hit NO infield flys!
12:24
Dave Cameron: Mauer did this a couple of years ago too, I think. It's crazy.


12:34
[Comment From Captain]
best/worst deal or extension of this offseason?
12:34
Dave Cameron: The Bronson Arroyo contract still looks awful to me. Aaron Harang for $3 million to San Diego was a freaking steal.


12:37
[Comment From Chris Cwik]
Now that the Reds have announced Chapman will remain in the pen, how does that affect your outlook on their rotation? Still the best in the Central?
12:37
Dave Cameron: Maybe a touch behind the other two teams, but I still am bullish on their quantity of good arms.


12:44
[Comment From camisadelgolf]
Can you think of an example of a pitcher whose fastball had a noticeable decline in velocity but became more effective due to the increased movement?
12:44
Dave Cameron: We don't have historical measures for movement, but Randy Johnson became a better pitcher when he stopped throwing 100 and started throwing strikes.
I might start a contest with myself to see how many consecutive weeks I can get a question in the chat.

RedsManRick
01-05-2011, 03:10 PM
I was in there too. Go me.


[Comment From Rick]
To what extent do you think HOF debates come off as about which measures to use given an accepted set of criteria, when the real disagreement lies at a more fundamental level of what criteria should be used to begin with?
12:33
Dave Cameron: I do think there's a pretty large percentage of people talking past each other. There are some folks who just have no interest in systematic ways of thinking, and trying to convince them to use a consistent set of rules to guide their voting is just never going to fly.

camisadelgolf
01-05-2011, 03:12 PM
Rick, I often see you on various baseball websites, and it sometimes gives me the urge to give you a virtual nod.

Superdude
01-05-2011, 04:13 PM
That's nuts about Votto. A lot of people, including me, thought his batting average would drop a few years ago due to his high BABIP, but an infield flyball percentage of zero is pretty good evidence that he's giving away much fewer easy outs than the average hitter.

kaldaniels
01-05-2011, 04:15 PM
I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?

REDREAD
01-05-2011, 05:05 PM
I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?

Yea, that's a head scratcher to me too. Of course if Harang bounces back to his former self, it's a steal, but IMO, the odds are against that. He's more likely to have a Fogg like season.

Berkman's deal seems incredible risky to me. 8 million for a guy you know is going to be a huge defensive liability and also he had his bat totally disappear. He's getting old. Unless I am missing some information (did he have an injury that might have healed over the winter). I think Arroyo's deal is much less riskier, even though it is for more total $$ and years.

Oh yea, and there's that deal the Nats gave to a former Philly OF.. How can they say Arroyo's deal is worse than that one?

dougdirt
01-05-2011, 05:44 PM
Yea, that's a head scratcher to me too. Of course if Harang bounces back to his former self, it's a steal, but IMO, the odds are against that. He's more likely to have a Fogg like season.

If Harang keeps the ball in the park, he is going to be a good pitcher. Petco is going to help him do that quite a bit.

HeatherC1212
01-05-2011, 05:55 PM
Oh yea, and there's that deal the Nats gave to a former Philly OF.. How can they say Arroyo's deal is worse than that one?

IMO, anyone who thinks Bronson's deal is worse than Jayson Werth's deal may not be playing with a full deck. Wow. :confused: :eek:

redsfandan
01-05-2011, 06:03 PM
I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?

It can be debated whether Arroyo should've been extended. But, if you look at the contract, it's not a bad deal for the Reds. I wouldn't have expected it to be structured in a way that helps the team so much.

TheNext44
01-05-2011, 06:17 PM
I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?

I love Cameron, think he's the best of the advanced stat writers out there, but to be honest, this smells like a defensive reaction to the whole value of DIPS (defense independant stats) argument.

Harang vs. Arroyo really encapsulated the argument into two pitchers pitching for the same team at the same time. Harang was providing solid DIPS, high K rate, low BB rate, decent HR rate, but was getting hit hard for the last few years. According to the DIPS fans, he was due for a positive correction and a good year each year. Arroyo, on the other hand, was providing weak DIPS, but solid ERA and wins, so according to DIPS fans, he was due for a negative correction and some down years.

However, as we all know, Harang continuted to decline, or at least not improve, while Arroyo continued to succeed and provide some excellent production.

These results really don't mean much in terms of the validity of the value of DIPS, as it was just two pitchers. But I think some DIPS fans are still trying to fight this war, still arguing that Arroyo will have a negative correction, and that Harang will be an effective pitcher. It seems like Cameron is one of those based on those statements.

TheNext44
01-05-2011, 06:19 PM
It can be debated whether Arroyo should've been extended. But, if you look at the contract, it's not a bad deal for the Reds. I wouldn't have expected it to be structured in a way that helps the team so much.

You have to wonder if Cameron even knows about the deferred money, which was the key to the extension. I can't imagine anyone knowing about that and thinking that the extension was "awful."

jojo
01-05-2011, 08:43 PM
You have to wonder if Cameron even knows about the deferred money, which was the key to the extension. I can't imagine anyone knowing about that and thinking that the extension was "awful."

Dave is not an Arroyo fan and sees him as a back end starter. The deferred money is still an overpay in his eyes.

lollipopcurve
01-05-2011, 08:48 PM
But I think some DIPS fans are still trying to fight this war, still arguing that Arroyo will have a negative correction, and that Harang will be an effective pitcher.

Yep. Still. It's been years.

jojo
01-05-2011, 09:06 PM
I love Cameron, think he's the best of the advanced stat writers out there, but to be honest, this smells like a defensive reaction to the whole value of DIPS (defense independant stats) argument.

These results really don't mean much in terms of the validity of the value of DIPS, as it was just two pitchers. But I think some DIPS fans are still trying to fight this war, still arguing that Arroyo will have a negative correction, and that Harang will be an effective pitcher. It seems like Cameron is one of those based on those statements.

Dave is a big proponent of evaluating pitchers based upon their peripherals and he also considers projection systems useful. He likely sees a guy with above average krates and bb rates going to a pitchers environment. Rather than fighting a battle, his opinion is very consistent with his philosophy. If you asked him, he'd argue there isn't a battle. DIPs theory has already carried the day

jojo
01-05-2011, 09:12 PM
Arroyo hasn't consistently outperformed his FIP. He has Pounded the strike zone and benefitted from his defense the last two seasons.

TheNext44
01-05-2011, 09:54 PM
Dave is a big proponent of evaluating pitchers based upon their peripherals and he also considers projection systems useful. He likely sees a guy with above average krates and bb rates going to a pitchers environment. Rather than fighting a battle, his opinion is very consistent with his philosophy. If you asked him, he'd argue there isn't a battle. DIPs theory has already carried the day

I would think that no matter how much you believe in DIPS and projection systems, both Arroyo and Harang have shown that DIPS just doesn't work well in projecting their performance for long enough, that a reasonable person would at this point have to admit that they can't use DIPS to accurately to predict these guys future performance.

This reminds me of a friend who to this day is convinced that The Jam would out sell Journey if just given the same breaks. No matter how much you believe that the Jam is a better band, or even a more commercial band, at some point you have to concede that Journey is always going to outsell The Jam. The actual results are just too strong to ignore.

kaldaniels
01-05-2011, 10:30 PM
Arroyo hasn't consistently outperformed his FIP. He has Pounded the strike zone and benefitted from his defense the last two seasons.

How bad has Harang been the past 2 seasons then, given the same defense?

redsfandan
01-06-2011, 05:35 AM
You have to wonder if Cameron even knows about the deferred money, which was the key to the extension. I can't imagine anyone knowing about that and thinking that the extension was "awful."

Exactly. I didn't want him to get an extension either. But when those are the terms? Cmon. Some of the young guys in the rotation would likely fetch more in a trade anyway. As good as Cameron is, for him to call the extension "awful" just means he's lost a little credibility in my eyes. I have to hand it to Walt though. He's made some nice contracts.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 07:23 AM
How bad has Harang been the past 2 seasons then, given the same defense?

I think I read somewhere that Gomes was Harang's personal LFer. :)

jojo
01-06-2011, 10:25 AM
I would think that no matter how much you believe in DIPS and projection systems, both Arroyo and Harang have shown that DIPS just doesn't work well in projecting their performance for long enough, that a reasonable person would at this point have to admit that they can't use DIPS to accurately to predict these guys future performance.

This reminds me of a friend who to this day is convinced that The Jam would out sell Journey if just given the same breaks. No matter how much you believe that the Jam is a better band, or even a more commercial band, at some point you have to concede that Journey is always going to outsell The Jam. The actual results are just too strong to ignore.

Has Harang's ERA consistently been out out of whack with his FIP-when not injured?

Arroyo has had two seasons where his ERA has outperformed his FIP and they have been seasons in which his BABIP has been significantly below his career norms and he's essentially induced contact at much greater rates than his career norms (at significantly below average rates) while playing in front of great defenses.

There hasn't really been as much pudding as suggested by the above argument that there's solid proof.

kaldaniels
01-06-2011, 10:48 AM
How does the great defense of 2009-10 come into play when evaluating other pitchers on the staff then...especially as asked earlier, Harang?

RedsManRick
01-06-2011, 11:13 AM
I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?

Well, if you're a FIP believer (and I know many around here aren't), Harang put up a 4.60 FIP last year. Arroyo? 4.61.

So if you believe in FIP as a predictor of future ERA, you're looking at two very similar, mediocre pitchers, one of whom will get $13M and one of whom will get $3M.

Harang has always been a flyball pitcher. He's maintained a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Pecto will do wonders for keeping more of his flyballs in the ballpark. I would not be surprised in the least if Harang had a better ERA next year than Arroyo. I'm not saying I'd bet on it, but I think there's a reasonable chance of it happening.

The Arroyo is really a 3.90 ERA pitcher argument is predicated on the belief that he can sustain a BABIP that is equal or better than the best pitchers of all-time at inducing poor conduct, such as Mo Rivera. I can appreciate that he's better than most pitchers are inducing poor contact, but find it very hard to believe he's historically great.

lollipopcurve
01-06-2011, 11:42 AM
Arroyo was a much, much better pitcher than Harang in 2010. If you watched them, this would have been drop-dead obvious. In the overwhelming majority of his starts, Harang simply could not throw anything except his fastball with any effectiveness.


So if you believe in FIP as a predictor of future ERA, you're looking at two very similar, mediocre pitchers, one of whom will get $13M and one of whom will get $3M.

In reality, you're looking at one pitcher who sat out most of the year and another who took the ball every time it was his turn, like he does every year.

The Belisle-Arroyo comparisons being drawn a few offseasons ago were pretty ludicrous. But trying to say Harang is as good as Arroyo now trumps those, I have to say.

TheNext44
01-06-2011, 02:28 PM
Well, if you're a FIP believer (and I know many around here aren't), Harang put up a 4.60 FIP last year. Arroyo? 4.61.

So if you believe in FIP as a predictor of future ERA, you're looking at two very similar, mediocre pitchers, one of whom will get $13M and one of whom will get $3M.

Harang has always been a flyball pitcher. He's maintained a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Pecto will do wonders for keeping more of his flyballs in the ballpark. I would not be surprised in the least if Harang had a better ERA next year than Arroyo. I'm not saying I'd bet on it, but I think there's a reasonable chance of it happening.

The Arroyo is really a 3.90 ERA pitcher argument is predicated on the belief that he can sustain a BABIP that is equal or better than the best pitchers of all-time at inducing poor conduct, such as Mo Rivera. I can appreciate that he's better than most pitchers are inducing poor contact, but find it very hard to believe he's historically great.

Nice analysis. Lots of good points.

But my only point is that for the last three seasons, people have made similar strong arguments about why Harang will be better the next season and Arroyo will be worse the next season, and each year it's been the reverse. It might be time to just admit that these guys are outliers when it comes to predicting their performance.

Big Klu
01-06-2011, 02:42 PM
I would think that no matter how much you believe in DIPS and projection systems, both Arroyo and Harang have shown that DIPS just doesn't work well in projecting their performance for long enough, that a reasonable person would at this point have to admit that they can't use DIPS to accurately to predict these guys future performance.

This reminds me of a friend who to this day is convinced that The Jam would out sell Journey if just given the same breaks. No matter how much you believe that the Jam is a better band, or even a more commercial band, at some point you have to concede that Journey is always going to outsell The Jam. The actual results are just too strong to ignore.

Don't stop believin'.

redsfandan
01-06-2011, 04:56 PM
So if you believe in FIP as a predictor of future ERA, you're looking at two very similar, mediocre pitchers, one of whom will get $13M and one of whom will get $3M.


Huh? :confused:

WebScorpion
01-08-2011, 01:32 AM
Huh? :confused:
I think his numbers are $6.5Mil in 2011, $7Mil in 2012, $6.5Mil in 2013, and the rest in deferred payments through 2020, so yeah I'm flummoxed by the $13Mil statement too. :dunno:

redsfandan
01-08-2011, 02:08 AM
I think his numbers are $6.5Mil in 2011, $7Mil in 2012, $6.5Mil in 2013, and the rest in deferred payments through 2020, so yeah I'm flummoxed by the $13Mil statement too. :dunno:

Yep, I think people are thinking of his last contract:

2 years/$25M (2009-10), plus 2011 club option
-signed extension with Cincinnati 2/07
-$2.5M signing bonus (paid 2008)
-09:$9.5M, 10:$11M, 11:$11M club option ($2M buyout)
-2011 option may increase to $13M based on IP
-agreed to give up 2008 performance bonuses as part of deal
-Cincinnati exercised 2011 option at $11.5M 11/3/10

which was replaced by his new contract:

3 years/$35M (2011-13)
-signed extension with Cincinnati 12/4/10, reworking option year in previous contract
-$15M deferred without interest, paid through 2021, reducing present-day AAV to $28.9M
-11:$6.5M, 12:$7M, 13:$6.5M
-if traded, deferrals are voided and paid up-front

He's not getting $13M this year. And this is why the extension doesn't bother me as much anymore. Low salaries each year (providing some financial flexibility for the Reds) plus deferred money reducing the overall value of the contract. A team friendly contract and probably less than he would've received as a FA. But the escalator clause means that he's more likely to be a Red for the duration of the contract.