PDA

View Full Version : Reds sign SS Edgar Renteria, 1 year deal



Pages : [1] 2

aubashbrother
01-06-2011, 02:33 PM
per mlbtraderumors

cinreds21
01-06-2011, 02:34 PM
This will push everyone back on the depth chart. That, or a trade is in order.

Always Red
01-06-2011, 02:34 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5995660

Starter or backup insurance to Janish?

aubashbrother
01-06-2011, 02:34 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5995660

The Cincinnati Reds will announce the signing of shortstop Edgar Renteria to a one-year contract Thursday afternoon, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.

The deal could be worth as much as $3 million with an incentive package.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 02:35 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5995660

Starter or backup insurance to Janish?

A little of both.

Homer Bailey
01-06-2011, 02:36 PM
Do. Not. Like.

RedsManRick
01-06-2011, 02:38 PM
I like it. I'm as big a Janish advocate as there is, but we have no other guy who has played SS at an above replacement level on the roster. A 70/30 split to keep both guys fresh makes a lot of sense to me.

As FA go, $3M is buying less than 1 win. He produced 1.3 wins in 267 PA last year.

pedro
01-06-2011, 02:39 PM
I think he could get a decent uptick in his hitting from playing half his games in GABP too.

camisadelgolf
01-06-2011, 02:40 PM
In other words, Renteria will be paid less for 2011 than Cabrera was for 2010. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but I'm glad Renteria's joining the team on these terms.

lollipopcurve
01-06-2011, 02:46 PM
I like it. Been a fan of Renteria for a long time.

Ron Madden
01-06-2011, 02:49 PM
I'm not a fan of signing declining players in their mid 30's but I guess I can live with it.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 02:50 PM
As FA go, $3M is buying less than 1 win. He produced 1.3 wins in 267 PA last year.

This is a statement for the WAR discussion on the other thread. :)

OnBaseMachine
01-06-2011, 02:51 PM
I don't mind it as long as he isn't the everyday starter at SS.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 02:52 PM
A little of both.

Now I wonder if, at that money, he is being viewed as more of the starter.

Wheelhouse
01-06-2011, 02:53 PM
I'm not a fan of signing declining players in their mid 30's but I guess I can live with it.

Me too, but Walt did OK with Rolen.

Ron Madden
01-06-2011, 02:53 PM
I don't really like this move but I guess I can live with it.

I hope PJ gets a fair chance to be the starting SS.

camisadelgolf
01-06-2011, 02:54 PM
I'm sure he'll be wearing #16.

Griffey012
01-06-2011, 02:54 PM
I am pretty happy to see the pickup. If he can put up numbers similar to what he did last year in SF he will bring his money's worth of value. I like Janish, but just don't trust him to take care of the full season of SS duties. Hopefully we will see a pretty even split between the two.

lollipopcurve
01-06-2011, 02:57 PM
I know vets have a hard time gaining acceptance on this board, but this guy has been a really, really good major league SS. That counts for something with me. Better hitter against tough pitching than the other vets we've had -- OCab and AGon.

Griffey012
01-06-2011, 02:57 PM
I like it. I'm as big a Janish advocate as there is, but we have no other guy who has played SS at an above replacement level on the roster. A 70/30 split to keep both guys fresh makes a lot of sense to me.

As FA go, $3M is buying less than 1 win. He produced 1.3 wins in 267 PA last year.

It could be worth 3 million based on incentives. If we end up paying him 3 million it is likely the case that he provides a chunk more than 1 WAR also.

Don't see much not to like with the deal. Janish/Renteria is much more solid than just Janish.

Plus Plus
01-06-2011, 02:58 PM
I don't mind it as long as he isn't the everyday starter at SS.

A number of different sources and analyst opinions state that they expect Renteria to be the backup at SS and 2b. Because of his injury history last season and his incentive-based salary, I think that he will at best be a 50/50 timeshare with Janish.

pedro
01-06-2011, 02:59 PM
It's good to have depth. If Janish were to get hurt the Reds would be screwed at SS.

As with Cabrera last year I view it basically as a push between Janish & Renteria with the potential of Renteria's bat mitigating the loss in defense.

The Operator
01-06-2011, 02:59 PM
I'm neutral on this move. Sure do feel bad for Paul Janish, though.

Ron Madden
01-06-2011, 03:03 PM
I wonder if it's a one or two year deal?

pedro
01-06-2011, 03:12 PM
I'm neutral on this move. Sure do feel bad for Paul Janish, though.

It's a team sport. This move likely improves the teams chances of winning. I have a hard time feeling bad for Janish under those circumstances. No one is due anything, go out and win the job.

lollipopcurve
01-06-2011, 03:18 PM
It's a team sport. This move likely improves the teams chances of winning. I have a hard time feeling bad for Janish under those circumstances. No one is due anything, go out and win the job.

100% agree.

Heath
01-06-2011, 03:19 PM
A number of different sources and analyst opinions state that they expect Renteria to be the backup at SS and 2b. Because of his injury history last season and his incentive-based salary, I think that he will at best be a 50/50 timeshare with Janish.

If this is the deal, I'm all for it.

Let's say Janish wins the job at SS and goes all John Vukovich-like at the plate in April/May. Renteria historically can provide the bump in offense.

I also think Renteria is going to like hitting GABP. Not really really like. But Really Like.

Reds Freak
01-06-2011, 03:19 PM
I'm neutral on this move. Sure do feel bad for Paul Janish, though.

He'll get plenty of opportunities and be a very important part of this team given Renteria's and Rolen's age and injury histories...

The Operator
01-06-2011, 03:21 PM
It's a team sport. This move likely improves the teams chances of winning. I have a hard time feeling bad for Janish under those circumstances. No one is due anything, go out and win the job.I agree, but I'd imagine it has to be frustrating to feel like the job is yours two straight winters and then - it isn't.

But whatever helps the team's chances of winning is ultimately more important than satisfying individual components of the team.

westofyou
01-06-2011, 03:21 PM
Sure do feel bad for Paul Janish, though.
He'll end up with a pension, he'll get no sympathy on how he gets it from me.

IslandRed
01-06-2011, 03:21 PM
It's good to have depth. If Janish were to get hurt the Reds would be screwed at SS.

Yep. Renteria + Janish > Janish + prayer, and the price is right.

I know we have other guys around, but I would rather leave Cozart in the minors to play every day, because I think he has everyday-shortstop potential. And I don't think they view Valaika's defense as major-league caliber at short.

Ron Madden
01-06-2011, 03:22 PM
It's a team sport. This move likely improves the teams chances of winning. I have a hard time feeling bad for Janish under those circumstances. No one is due anything, go out and win the job.

I don't expect them to hand the job to PJ, I just want him to be given a fair shot.

Ghosts of 1990
01-06-2011, 03:23 PM
I like it. It's something. In an offseason that has been so quiet, it's nice to add a clutch hitter like Renteria. He's one of those guys who is pretty ageless.

Tom Servo
01-06-2011, 03:24 PM
I've always liked Renteria dating back to his days with the Marlins and I think he's a solid addition for depth. Not like we're breaking the bank or committing long term.

I(heart)Freel
01-06-2011, 03:27 PM
One hopes there's still some money to play with. I'd like another LF signed in this vein. Then it wouldn't be a bad offseason for me.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 03:32 PM
Seems like Walt gets going after the ball drops.

marcshoe
01-06-2011, 03:40 PM
Not bad. After all, why Renteria when you can buy one?

westofyou
01-06-2011, 03:42 PM
Seems like Walt gets going after the ball drops.

Must get refreshed during his vacation.

Edd Roush
01-06-2011, 03:46 PM
I like Renteria splitting time backing up short and second and providing a safety net if Janish falters next year. Depth is always a good thing and Zach Cozart is not ready for the bigs IMO. I love the .416 SLG from a SS, but a .310 OBP is just not going to cut it in AAA. Let's hope Cozart takes some walks in AAA next year and remains our SS of the future.

This move makes the 2011 Cincinnati Reds better (as long as this does not preclude a move to improve left field).

camisadelgolf
01-06-2011, 03:46 PM
Must get refreshed during his vacation.
Yes, I also noticed that a lot of his transactions are announced in the mid-afternoon. I'm thinking his early-afternoon naps are a big factor in this.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 03:48 PM
Must get refreshed during his vacation.

New Year's Resolutions

1) Lose 10 pounds
2) Stop drinking
3) Fill out roster

camisadelgolf
01-06-2011, 03:48 PM
I always kind of liked the idea of obtaining Jason Bartlett or Marco Scutaro if the price were right, but those guys would've cost money and prospects. This is a better situation for the Reds imho.

Eric_the_Red
01-06-2011, 03:58 PM
Adds depth, reduces risk. Addition by addition, IMO.

Redsfan320
01-06-2011, 03:59 PM
If he's a backup I like it. But with Dusty that will NEVER happen. Combine his normal vet. love with his Janish-hate...

PJ must be the most devastated person in the baseball world right now.

320

Brutus
01-06-2011, 03:59 PM
If he's a backup I like it. But with Dusty that will NEVER happen. Combine his normal vet. love with his Janish-hate...

PJ must be the most devastated person in the baseball world right now.

320

Here I was just getting ready to ask if I was the only one that doesn't see a possible way Renteria won't start with Dusty around....

pedro
01-06-2011, 04:03 PM
If he's a backup I like it. But with Dusty that will NEVER happen. Combine his normal vet. love with his Janish-hate...

PJ must be the most devastated person in the baseball world right now.

320

Cry me a river.

I've never seen a player who fans were more concerned about upsetting than Paul Janish. He must be a real wuss.

He can go out and win the job if he's so entitled to it. As for Dusty's "vet love" what great young player has he passed over to play a vet? Please tell me.

Tommyjohn25
01-06-2011, 04:04 PM
I don't get the "Dusty vet love" thing. I think he's played the youngsters plenty. Janish just isn't the kind of bat you can have in your lineup every day. IMO it's time to move on from "Dusty vet love".

fearofpopvol1
01-06-2011, 04:07 PM
I see many assuming Edgar will be "backing up" Janish. One must not forget who manages the Reds and what tendencies said manager has when it comes to starting position players.

Tom Servo
01-06-2011, 04:11 PM
There's a certain degree of truth in "Dusty's veteran love" but it's definitely overblown. He didn't run Hatteberg out there instead of Votto and younger guys like Heisey, Janish, and Hanigan have all gotten as much playing time as the veterans they have split time with. Plus he stuck with Bruce in spite of his struggles.

osuceltic
01-06-2011, 04:18 PM
There's a reason guys play long enough to become "veterans."

Personally, I don't care if a player is 60 as long as he produces. And I don't care what he might do next year as long as he produces this year. Best man plays.

As for Janish, he's going to fill the role he is best suited for and destined to play -- backup infielder. Neither he nor anyone else is entitled to anything.

Renteria has been a good shortstop on a lot of winning teams -- just like Cabrera. I've said it before -- there is more to that position than can be measured by range factor.

redsfan30
01-06-2011, 04:19 PM
Cry me a river.

I've never seen a player who fans were more concerned about upsetting than Paul Janish. He must be a real wuss.

He can go out and win the job if he's so entitled to it. As for Dusty's "vet love" what great young player has he passed over to play a vet? Please tell me.

Bravo.

I(heart)Freel
01-06-2011, 04:19 PM
My more acute concern is that Dusty will run Renteria and Rolen out there too much in the early season and then use the "back of their baseball card" excuse to explain why he's sticking with them when they're worn out.

Well used and well-rested, those guys can be definite pluses in the Reds '11 campaign.

Hoosier Red
01-06-2011, 04:22 PM
If he's a backup I like it. But with Dusty that will NEVER happen. Combine his normal vet. love with his Janish-hate...

PJ must be the most devastated person in the baseball world right now.

320

ugh. When will this myth die.
Is it too much to ask for any proof at all of his vet love?

For every time he's played Orlando Cabrera over Paul Janish, he's also ridden through the early career slumps of Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs.

For every old reliever he's taken north, he's also taken a player like Nick Masset(who had no success previous) or Logan Ondrusek and has turned them into legitimate bullpen arms.

This is to say nothing of the multitude of starting pitchers who he has guided through the early season ups and downs.

Seriously, since he joined the Reds, what evidence is there that Dusty will play veterans over younger players?

RedsManRick
01-06-2011, 04:23 PM
As a noted Dusty critic, I think his approach is pretty straightforward. He wants to put guys in situations where they can succeed, limit their exposure to getting embarrassed and expects them to earn their opportunities.

I'm not defending him, but I don't think that he dislikes young players. He's just not willing to give a mediocre young guy a bunch of chances when he's got a mediocre veteran available who has put in his time.

I think both Janish and Renteria will get a good deal of playing time.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 04:24 PM
I've never seen a player who fans were more concerned about upsetting than Paul Janish. He must be a real wuss.

He can go out and win the job if he's so entitled to it. As for Dusty's "vet love" what great young player has he passed over to play a vet? Please tell me.

Agree 100%. I have no idea why Janish gets so much love around here.

reds44
01-06-2011, 04:25 PM
Dear God are you people related to Paul Janish? Keep "feeling bad" for him, meanwhile the Reds will be trying to win baseball games.

Brutus
01-06-2011, 04:28 PM
Cry me a river.

I've never seen a player who fans were more concerned about upsetting than Paul Janish. He must be a real wuss.

He can go out and win the job if he's so entitled to it. As for Dusty's "vet love" what great young player has he passed over to play a vet? Please tell me.

Was the "cry me a river" portion of your response really necessary?

To answer your question, it's not about the "great young play" that he's passed over. It's the many veterans that weren't producing where better or slightly better (though younger) options existed on the bench.

It's not that any specific great young player was wronged. It's just too many veterans weren't getting the job done and was played anyhow.

camisadelgolf
01-06-2011, 04:29 PM
Any guesses on where Renteria fits in the lineup? Is he the new #2 hitter with Stubbs trying to lead off again?

Brutus
01-06-2011, 04:29 PM
Dear God are you people related to Paul Janish? Keep "feeling bad" for him, meanwhile the Reds will be trying to win baseball games.

Consider that perhaps people are upset because they feel Janish can help win games...

Hmm....

reds44
01-06-2011, 04:31 PM
Consider that perhaps people are upset because they feel Janish can help win games...

Hmm....
No, no, no. Go read the thread, people are saying they like this signing but they "feel bad for Paul Janish."

The Voice of IH
01-06-2011, 04:32 PM
I absolutely hate this. Renteria is not a veteran like Ocab or Rolen is. He will not be a team leader, This is the first head scratcher of Walt's IMO

camisadelgolf
01-06-2011, 04:33 PM
I absolutely hate this. Renteria is not a veteran like Ocab or Rolen is. He will not be a team leader, This is the first head scratcher of Walt's IMO
I'm not saying you're wrong, but are you saying that the World Series MVP is not a team leader?

Homer Bailey
01-06-2011, 04:33 PM
I should clarify why I dislike.

Janish starts, he bats 8th. Renteria starts (which he will), he bats 2nd or 1st.

That's a .316 OBP (over the last 3 years) batting at the top of your lineup. I originally liked the OC move, and soured on it. This feels about the same to me, but I'm not going to be fooled this year.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 04:35 PM
It's not that any specific great young player was wronged. It's just too many veterans weren't getting the job done and was played anyhow.

Too many vets were playing and not getting the job done and yet, the team won the division.

Incredible.

Brutus
01-06-2011, 04:37 PM
No, no, no. Go read the thread, people are saying they like this signing but they "feel bad for Paul Janish."

I did read the thread. One person in the entire thread commented they "feel bad" for him, and that person also qualified it by saying the move itself they were indifferent on it.

My point is: I don't think anyone is basing their opinion on the move because of how Paul Janish feels. But it's OK to feel bad for him separately of that.

The Voice of IH
01-06-2011, 04:38 PM
I'm not saying you're wrong, but are you saying that the World Series MVP is not a team leader?

Yes, I do not see him becoming one of the Vets that will help the youngsters grow. in fact, as I see it he is holding them down.

pedro
01-06-2011, 04:38 PM
Was the "cry me a river" portion of your response really necessary?

To answer your question, it's not about the "great young play" that he's passed over. It's the many veterans that weren't producing where better or slightly better (though younger) options existed on the bench.

It's not that any specific great young player was wronged. It's just too many veterans weren't getting the job done and was played anyhow.

I'm not buying it. Please provide examples that don't include guys like Heisey and Janish who haven't actually proven yet that they were indeed better options.

And why should anyone feel bad for Paul Janish. God forbid he might actually have to compete for a starting position.

Brutus
01-06-2011, 04:38 PM
Too many vets were playing and not getting the job done and yet, the team won the division.

Incredible.

So you can't disagree with certain personnel decisions that may have made the team better just because they won the division?

That, sir, is incredible.

oneupper
01-06-2011, 04:38 PM
It seems that Renteria is an upgrade over Cabrera.

What is his health status? Why did he miss time the last few years?

RBA
01-06-2011, 04:39 PM
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090831175041AA3S983

reds44
01-06-2011, 04:39 PM
So you can't disagree with certain personnel decisions that may have made the team better just because they won the division?

That, sir, is incredible.
What personnel decisions are you talking about?

kpresidente
01-06-2011, 04:39 PM
My only thing about all these nickel and dime moves (Rentaria, Cairo, Gomes) is that they add up, and we maybe could've gotten a decent LFer for the same cost.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 04:40 PM
So you can't disagree with certain personnel decisions that may have made the team better just because they won the division?

That, sir, is incredible.

"Too many people not getting the job done" would make me think that the team failed.

Tommyjohn25
01-06-2011, 04:40 PM
Yes, I do not see him becoming one of the Vets that helped the youngsters grow. in fact, as I see it he is holding them down.

That's a fairly strong opinion. Is there any particular reason you feel this way?

Homer Bailey
01-06-2011, 04:41 PM
My only thing about all these nickel and dime moves (Rentaria, Cairo, Gomes) is that they add up, and we maybe could've gotten a decent LFer for the same cost.

I was thinking the exact same thing.

Brutus
01-06-2011, 04:43 PM
I'm not buying it. Please provide examples that don't include guys like Heisey and Janish who haven't actually proven yet that they were indeed better options.

And why should anyone feel bad for Paul Janish. God forbid he might actually have to compete for a starting position.

Why doesn't Janish count? He was out playing Cabrera last year and still not getting a sniff when Cabrera was healthy. No one cares that Janish has to "compete" for the job. The problem is that the people feeling bad for him don't believe he'll get a fair chance to win the job. If it's even remotely close a competition, guarantee you Renteria will be starting. It's not that he has to compete, it's that he won't be given a fair shot. He sure wasn't last year. Statistically, he was better than Cabrera.

Jonny Gomes played last year despite better options existing (not just Heisey who did struggle mightily the second half of the year).

Wily Taveras was playing pretty much every day despite anyone with a pulse being a better option. It wasn't until Jocketty brought up Stubbs and disabled Wily that Dusty was forced to play someone else regularly.

That's just a few examples. I'm sure if we dug into his past in Chicago or San Francisco we could find several more.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 04:43 PM
My only thing about all these nickel and dime moves (Rentaria, Cairo, Gomes) is that they add up, and we maybe could've gotten a decent LFer for the same cost.

Such as?

You'd also get a weakened bench and, if you are talking about a trade, weakened farm.

pedro
01-06-2011, 04:43 PM
I was thinking the exact same thing.

While I would really like a top notch LF I'm not sure going into the season thin at SS (and catcher as was discussed in other threads when Hernandez was resigned) is a good strategy either.

Brutus
01-06-2011, 04:44 PM
"Too many people not getting the job done" would make me think that the team failed.

We're talking about Dusty over the course of his being a manager, not just one particular team in one particular year. So it goes to reason that I wasn't just referring to 2010.

Griffey012
01-06-2011, 04:44 PM
Any guesses on where Renteria fits in the lineup? Is he the new #2 hitter with Stubbs trying to lead off again?

I would be willing to put money down he goes in as the #2 hitter. He may see some time at lead-off depending on how they feel about Stubbs hitting there.

Him and Phillips are going to be about the same as far as OBP, so it would make sense to put Phillips power in the 2 spot.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 04:45 PM
Jonny Gomes played last year despite better options existing (not just Heisey who did struggle mightily the second half of the year).

Who deserved to start over Gomes and didn't? Because everyone I saw either fell on their faces or got injured. And those guys were vets as well.

redsmetz
01-06-2011, 04:45 PM
If he's a backup I like it. But with Dusty that will NEVER happen. Combine his normal vet. love with his Janish-hate...

PJ must be the most devastated person in the baseball world right now.

320

I'm amazed it took four pages for this tired old canard to show up. This isn't your daddy's Dusty Baker anymore. That supposed DB hasn't shown up in the recent vintage Reds (although Janish is reaching the age where he can hardly be called a youngster either).

reds44
01-06-2011, 04:47 PM
I swear this board would be against any signing of a player over 30.

kpresidente
01-06-2011, 04:49 PM
Such as?

You'd also get a weakened bench and, if you are talking about a trade, weakened farm.

We've got plenty of pitching plus a blocked 1B. I don't know who exactly. Maybe nobody, maybe somebody. I don't have the luxury of calling GMs to find out who might be available. If nobody's available, then so be it. But usually somebody's available. And a weakened bench or farm is definately worth not starting a replacement level player in LF.

pedro
01-06-2011, 04:50 PM
Why doesn't Janish count? He was out playing Cabrera last year and still not getting a sniff when Cabrera was healthy. No one cares that Janish has to "compete" for the job. The problem is that the people feeling bad for him don't believe he'll get a fair chance to win the job. If it's even remotely close a competition, guarantee you Renteria will be starting. It's not that he has to compete, it's that he won't be given a fair shot. He sure wasn't last year. Statistically, he was better than Cabrera.

Jonny Gomes played last year despite better options existing (not just Heisey who did struggle mightily the second half of the year).

Wily Taveras was playing pretty much every day despite anyone with a pulse being a better option. It wasn't until Jocketty brought up Stubbs and disabled Wily that Dusty was forced to play someone else regularly.

That's just a few examples. I'm sure if we dug into his past in Chicago or San Francisco we could find several more.

I think this says more about your hate for Dusty baker than it does about Baker himself.

Griffey012
01-06-2011, 04:50 PM
My only thing about all these nickel and dime moves (Rentaria, Cairo, Gomes) is that they add up, and we maybe could've gotten a decent LFer for the same cost.

Renteria 2.75 mil (estimate), Cairo 1 mil, Gomes 1.75 mil. That's 5.5 million for 3 players. Subtract the fact that we have to pay their replacements at least league minimum, let's say roughly 500K (we would have likely added some sort of veteran utility guy if we didnt add Cairo), that leaves us with 4.5 million to sign a LF'er with. Note: I did not subtract the replacement cost for Gomes because the LFer we signed would be getting that money.

4.5 Million is not going to sign us much in LF.

Brutus
01-06-2011, 04:51 PM
I'm amazed it took four pages for this tired old canard to show up. This isn't your daddy's Dusty Baker anymore. That supposed DB hasn't shown up in the recent vintage Reds (although Janish is reaching the age where he can hardly be called a youngster either).

It's not?

Janish 1 WAR in 228 plate appearances which was almost as much as Cabrera (1.3 WAR) in over 500 plate appearances. Now reverse those plate appearances and imagine how much better production the Reds could have got out of SS.

Heisey & Nix combined on 2.8 WAR in 400 PAs in the outfield. Gomes had -0.1 WAR in 570 PAs in left.

So by playing the vets Gomes & Cabrera, it could be argued the Reds lost out on nearly 4 wins by Dusty's love for the seasoned players. Now consider 4 more wins would have made the Reds have home field advantage and avoid the Phillies, and who knows what may have happened.

Brutus
01-06-2011, 04:53 PM
I think this says more about your hate for Dusty baker than it does about Baker himself.

LOL hate? Where do you get "hate" out of that? Perhaps you should go back and check the archives. I'm someone that was defending the extension of Dusty last year. So if you're suggesting I "hate" Dusty, then you've already made up your mind about this subject without listening to anything else.

If I were you, I'd tone down the rhetoric. It's not really helping the conversation much.

kpresidente
01-06-2011, 04:54 PM
4.5 Million is not going to sign us much in LF.

Willingham's making $4.6M.

TRF
01-06-2011, 04:57 PM
I'm not buying it. Please provide examples that don't include guys like Heisey and Janish who haven't actually proven yet that they were indeed better options.

And why should anyone feel bad for Paul Janish. God forbid he might actually have to compete for a starting position.

I'm actually indifferent on the signing, but...

If Janish was in competition for the starting SS job last ST, he got jobbed. He was CLEARLY the better player. Then he proved he was the better player during the season. Then he's told, AGAIN, that the job is his. And AGAIN it suddenly isn't. I don't buy the Dusty vet love myth, but I don't believe you spend 3M on Paul Janish's backup.

I do think the Reds, especially Jocketty AND Dusty were concerned about the idea of Cozart as the primary backup at SS. I wouldn't be, not with BP and Rolen on either side of them to help with things like positioning and how to carry ones self at this level. But that's just me.

Superdude
01-06-2011, 04:58 PM
Defensive stats still kind of puzzle me. Where does Renteria rank the past few years..average?

BuckeyeRedleg
01-06-2011, 04:58 PM
It's not?

Janish 1 WAR in 228 plate appearances which was almost as much as Cabrera (1.3 WAR) in over 500 plate appearances. Now reverse those plate appearances and imagine how much better production the Reds could have got out of SS.

Heisey & Nix combined on 2.8 WAR in 400 PAs in the outfield. Gomes had -0.1 WAR in 570 PAs in left.

So by playing the vets Gomes & Cabrera, it could be argued the Reds lost out on nearly 4 wins by Dusty's love for the seasoned players. Now consider 4 more wins would have made the Reds have home field advantage and avoid the Phillies, and who knows what may have happened.


Spot on.

redsfan30
01-06-2011, 04:58 PM
If it's even remotely close a competition, guarantee you Renteria will be starting. It's not that he has to compete, it's that he won't be given a fair shot.
If it's even remotely close, I want Renteria over Janish anyday of the week. If Janish blows everyone away in Arizona this spring, of course he should be the starter. But if all things are equal, absolutely give me the guy who has been there, done that in October and done it quite well as his World Series MVP would suggest.

westofyou
01-06-2011, 05:01 PM
PJ must be the most devastated person in the baseball world right now.

320

Hahahaha Kills me, just freaking kills me.

Plus Plus
01-06-2011, 05:02 PM
Renteria 2.75 mil (estimate), Cairo 1 mil, Gomes 1.75 mil. That's 5.5 million for 3 players. Subtract the fact that we have to pay their replacements at least league minimum, let's say roughly 500K (we would have likely added some sort of veteran utility guy if we didnt add Cairo), that leaves us with 4.5 million to sign a LF'er with. Note: I did not subtract the replacement cost for Gomes because the LFer we signed would be getting that money.

4.5 Million is not going to sign us much in LF.

IIRC, Gomes also had a $1mil buyout on his contract, so you are talking more like 3.5m rather than 4.5m.

And on the Willingham front, he still has to go through arbitration, so 4.6m for his 2011 salary probably isn't accurate.

muddie
01-06-2011, 05:04 PM
I don't like this signing...actually I hate it. I'll always prefer going with guys already in the organization that are capable. I believe those guys exist now.

Brutus
01-06-2011, 05:04 PM
If it's even remotely close, I want Renteria over Janish anyday of the week. If Janish blows everyone away in Arizona this spring, of course he should be the starter. But if all things are equal, absolutely give me the guy who has been there, done that in October and done it quite well as his World Series MVP would suggest.

Orlando Cabrera had "been there" in October, but he also had a .500 OPS in the playoffs in his career and was not producing as much as Janish.

Do you know what Renteria's career playoff OPS is in 278 PAs? It's .666.

But because he has a subjective WS MVP based on a memorable game 7 hit, thereby he's supposed to start over a younger, better player?

I love signings like this. Mind you, I think the Reds SHOULD have signed Renteria. But as a backup. I think Janish is a terrific defensive player and a guy that has slowly become capable with the bat. One memorable hit in the world series doesn't change who should start.

MartyFan
01-06-2011, 05:05 PM
Our most valuable trading chip right now is Brandon Phillips....he is a big ticket player too.

Is there any team that needs a 2B that could take on his salary and return to us a leadoff hitter, younger 2B with a couple of other pieces?

just curious...I don't think Walt is done.

Will M
01-06-2011, 05:06 PM
I like Renteria splitting time backing up short and second and providing a safety net if Janish falters next year. Depth is always a good thing and Zach Cozart is not ready for the bigs IMO. I love the .416 SLG from a SS, but a .310 OBP is just not going to cut it in AAA. Let's hope Cozart takes some walks in AAA next year and remains our SS of the future.

This move makes the 2011 Cincinnati Reds better (as long as this does not preclude a move to improve left field).

+1

Its unclear what the base salary is. If he makes $3M due to incentives then its likely that he would be worth it after all is said and done. ie, he only gets paid the extra money if he has a good season.

I have felt the entire offseason that Cozart was going to start 2011 in AAA. One thing that I have noticed about Jocketty is that he doesn't seem to want to rush prospects. If Cozart still has some things to work on (ie getting on base) then keep him in AAA. Rushing a guy to the bigs is a good way to ensure that he won't be successful.

Griffey012
01-06-2011, 05:06 PM
Willingham's making $4.6M.

And he was not a free agent.

Griffey012
01-06-2011, 05:08 PM
IIRC, Gomes also had a $1mil buyout on his contract, so you are talking more like 3.5m rather than 4.5m.

And on the Willingham front, he still has to go through arbitration, so 4.6m for his 2011 salary probably isn't accurate.

Forgot about the buyout, 3.5 mil makes it even harder to find someone suitable.

pedro
01-06-2011, 05:16 PM
It's not?

Janish 1 WAR in 228 plate appearances which was almost as much as Cabrera (1.3 WAR) in over 500 plate appearances. Now reverse those plate appearances and imagine how much better production the Reds could have got out of SS.

Heisey & Nix combined on 2.8 WAR in 400 PAs in the outfield. Gomes had -0.1 WAR in 570 PAs in left.

So by playing the vets Gomes & Cabrera, it could be argued the Reds lost out on nearly 4 wins by Dusty's love for the seasoned players. Now consider 4 more wins would have made the Reds have home field advantage and avoid the Phillies, and who knows what may have happened.


First, I think it's a huge assumption to extrapolate Janish's WAR based on an inflated value increased by the best month of his career which was very likely an outlier. Second, much of Heisey's value came as a PH and when given the opportunity to play everyday, he didn't do all that well. Third, Nix's playing time was limited by injuries. I don't want to see Gomes out there anymore than anyone else but I think you are overstating the cumulative potential value of his possible replacements.

also regarding Nix, his lifetime OPB is under .300, just because he was doing well last year in 165 AB's doesn't mean that was his new level of production.

KronoRed
01-06-2011, 05:19 PM
This is great, I thought we would end up going after Renteria.

He isn't going to play more then 125 games so Janish will get his shot.

reds44
01-06-2011, 05:23 PM
I can't wait to see the reaction when we sign Podsednik too.

edabbs44
01-06-2011, 05:24 PM
I can't wait to see the reaction when we sign Podsednik too.

It will even out, since he'll be taking away time from both Heisey and Gomes.

Or, wait a minute...what if he takes away time from Stubbs and Bruce?

;)

Blimpie
01-06-2011, 05:31 PM
I can't wait to see the reaction when we sign Podsednik too.Or when Dontrelle Willis is named the #5 starter....

:D

Brutus
01-06-2011, 05:43 PM
First, I think it's a huge assumption to extrapolate Janish's WAR based on an inflated value increased by the best month of his career which was very likely an outlier. Second, much of Heisey's value came as a PH and when given the opportunity to play everyday, he didn't do all that well. Third, Nix's playing time was limited by injuries. I don't want to see Gomes out there anymore than anyone else but I think you are overstating the cumulative potential value of his possible replacements.

also regarding Nix, his lifetime OPB is under .300, just because he was doing well last year in 165 AB's doesn't mean that was his new level of production.

How much extrapolating is it really? He was 27 years old -- the age players often start putting it together.

As an example, his BABIP noramlized (it was previously in the 'unlucky' territory the year before), his walks were up, strikeouts were down and isolated power increased. To me, it's not an extrapolation but rather an example of a guy that was improving the and overall OPS was supportive of those things.

With the other two, their numbers weren't really far-fetched. Their final offensive numbers weren't indicative of players that overachieved. But their WAR was comprised largely because they were far better defensive players than Gomes. And that counts too.

Homer Bailey
01-06-2011, 05:50 PM
Bill James is projecting a .317 wOBA for ER, and .288 for PJ.

Captain Hook
01-06-2011, 05:52 PM
If age hasn't caught up to Renteria and last year was just a fluke this could end up being a very good deal.At his age it's not impossible that he couldn't repeat what he did in 08 with Atl. As far as him leading off.Four out of the last eight years he had a OBP over .360 with one year over .390. It's possible he could hit almost anywhere.That can't be said about Paul.

I like Janish but I don't think that over the course of a full season he could ever put up the kind of numbers that Edgar has and hopefully still can numerous time during his career.

MikeS21
01-06-2011, 06:03 PM
Regardless of the feelings toward Renteria, it is obvious that the Reds think Janish's pre-All Star break numbers were a fluke, and that his post All-Star break numbers were closer to the norm. Janish is one of those guys who performs best in a reserve role.

While it would be nice to land a SS who has Hanley Ramirez's bat and Elvis Andrus's defense, there aren't too many of those available. So the Reds are left with the Renterias and Caberas to fill in.

westofyou
01-06-2011, 06:06 PM
While it would be nice to land a SS who has Hanley Ramirez's bat and Elvis Andrus's defense, there aren't too many of those available. So the Reds are left with the Renterias and Caberas to fill in.

It's simply the hardest position to fill within and outside of ones organization.

And currently the Reds have a 27 year old glove man with a handful of AB's and weak showing with the stick at the upper level of the game.

That's not saying he can't take the position and run with it, but if he gets hurt the Reds are in for a world of hurt if he's the only man in house.

PuffyPig
01-06-2011, 06:19 PM
Regardless of the feelings toward Renteria, it is obvious that the Reds think Janish's pre-All Star break numbers were a fluke, and that his post All-Star break numbers were closer to the norm.



I don't agree that it's obvious that the Reds felt his first half numebrs were a fluke.

They may well have just not wanted to take that chance.

Renteria is a safety net that's good to have around even if it was felt that Janish could do the job.

traderumor
01-06-2011, 06:36 PM
I think it says more about the Reds opinion on Cozart, which they apparently share with me. I am relieved to see someone we know can hit and field major league SS vs. having a backup that has not shown much stick in the minors. Cozart almost seems like a poor man's Janish, and we certainly don't need 2 of that as our hope at the most important position in the field.

RedsManRick
01-06-2011, 06:40 PM
I think it says more about the Reds opinion on Cozart, which they apparently share with me. I am relieved to see someone we know can hit and field major league SS vs. having a backup that has not shown much stick in the minors. Cozart almost seems like a poor man's Janish, and we certainly don't need 2 of that as our hope at the most important position in the field.

My thoughts as well. Even if Renteria is replacement level, Cozart is a guy who put up a .310 OBP in AAA last year. Negron has 21 PA in AAA. Nobody else on the 40 man, excluding Phillips, can play a capable SS. We needed a SS and of the available ones, Renteria is hardly a bad choice.

pedro
01-06-2011, 06:53 PM
How much extrapolating is it really? He was 27 years old -- the age players often start putting it together.

As an example, his BABIP noramlized (it was previously in the 'unlucky' territory the year before), his walks were up, strikeouts were down and isolated power increased. To me, it's not an extrapolation but rather an example of a guy that was improving the and overall OPS was supportive of those things.

With the other two, their numbers weren't really far-fetched. Their final offensive numbers weren't indicative of players that overachieved. But their WAR was comprised largely because they were far better defensive players than Gomes. And that counts too.

I'd say small sample size with Janish. Nothing he ever did in the high minors or his other time in the majors supports the results he got in June/July of last year.

As for Nix? You aren't honestly claiming that that .350 OPB he put up last year in 165 AB's outweighs the .291 OBP he put in in over 1300 ab's in the majors are you?

Joe Charboneau had a hell of a rookie season. So did Ben Grieve. That didn't make them locks for the hall of fame. Extrapolation is dicey business.

Big Klu
01-06-2011, 07:09 PM
I swear this board would be against any signing of a player over 30.

http://www.boingboing.net/logan.jpg

Brutus
01-06-2011, 07:18 PM
I'd say small sample size with Janish. Nothing he ever did in the high minors or his other time in the majors supports the results he got in June/July of last year.

As for Nix? You aren't honestly claiming that that .350 OPB he put up last year in 165 AB's outweighs the .291 OBP he put in in over 1300 ab's in the majors are you?

Joe Charboneau had a hell of a rookie season. So did Ben Grieve. That didn't make them locks for the hall of fame. Extrapolation is dicey business.

Who's putting anyone in the Hall of Fame? Extrapolation might be dicey, but so is building a strawman.

Janish had a .723 OPS. Higher than one would expect in a full season, absolutely. But not terribly outrageous.

Even if it's .690 ish, with his defense, he's a better option than Cabrera or modern day Renteria.

Also, as far as Nix... I said 'far-fetched.' Surely you can recognize the difference between surmising that was what I would expect out of him and not being terribly far off. Still, citing his OBA and ignoring the other factors that were involved in his production (fielding, power, etc.)... it's cherry-picking.

_Sir_Charles_
01-06-2011, 07:26 PM
I'm actually indifferent on the signing, but...

If Janish was in competition for the starting SS job last ST, he got jobbed. He was CLEARLY the better player. Then he proved he was the better player during the season. Then he's told, AGAIN, that the job is his. And AGAIN it suddenly isn't. I don't buy the Dusty vet love myth, but I don't believe you spend 3M on Paul Janish's backup.

I do think the Reds, especially Jocketty AND Dusty were concerned about the idea of Cozart as the primary backup at SS. I wouldn't be, not with BP and Rolen on either side of them to help with things like positioning and how to carry ones self at this level. But that's just me.

You and I sir,are on the same page here. Agree 100%.

membengal
01-06-2011, 07:44 PM
I sure don't hate going into 2011 with Renteria and Hermida on this team.

Caveat Emperor
01-06-2011, 08:04 PM
I'd say small sample size with Janish. Nothing he ever did in the high minors or his other time in the majors supports the results he got in June/July of last year.

As for Nix? You aren't honestly claiming that that .350 OPB he put up last year in 165 AB's outweighs the .291 OBP he put in in over 1300 ab's in the majors are you?

Joe Charboneau had a hell of a rookie season. So did Ben Grieve. That didn't make them locks for the hall of fame. Extrapolation is dicey business.

I had Ben Grieve on my fantasy team his rookie year. Burned me badly over the course of the next few.

As for Renteria, I like the signing. I guess I understand people wanting to give Janish a shot, but I just don't think he's an answer (short or long term) for a playoff team.

Griffey012
01-06-2011, 08:25 PM
Another reason this is a good and important move is that Janish can play 3rd Base if Rolen goes down, and in all honesty we probably were pretty lucky with Rolen last year, I won't be surprised if he see's the DL a few times this season.

Having Janish at 3b and Renteria at SS sounds a lot better than Cairo at 3b and Janish at SS

Kc61
01-06-2011, 08:27 PM
IMO Reds still haven't advanced the ball very much this off-season.

Renteria replaces Cabrera.

Hermida likely replaces Nix.

Decent moves to replace guys from last year's team, modest contracts. Not complaining about them.

But still would like to see something that pushes the envelope a bit.

Razor Shines
01-06-2011, 09:30 PM
Another reason this is a good and important move is that Janish can play 3rd Base if Rolen goes down, and in all honesty we probably were pretty lucky with Rolen last year, I won't be surprised if he see's the DL a few times this season.

Having Janish at 3b and Renteria at SS sounds a lot better than Cairo at 3b and Janish at SS

I was going to come on here and post that I hope Renteria better take a bunch of ground balls at 3rd in ST. It would be kinda silly to move Janish to 3rd instead of Renteria, IMO.

Griffey012
01-06-2011, 09:53 PM
I was going to come on here and post that I hope Renteria better take a bunch of ground balls at 3rd in ST. It would be kinda silly to move Janish to 3rd instead of Renteria, IMO.

That would also work, I really do not know much about Renteria or his capability of playing 3b. I made my assumption of Janish would be at 3b because he made a couple of starts their last season.

I am with you though, I would rather have Renteria at 3rd.

Razor Shines
01-06-2011, 09:57 PM
That would also work, I really do not know much about Renteria or his capability of playing 3b. I made my assumption of Janish would be at 3b because he made a couple of starts their last season.

I am with you though, I would rather have Renteria at 3rd.

He's never played there, but many SS's make the switch pretty easily.

Hoosier Red
01-06-2011, 10:45 PM
All right, I tried my best to look objectively at what we'd consider Dusty's vet love.
So I broke it down by year. Please let me know if I missed anyone.
2008
Paul Bako and David Ross over Ryan Hanigan
Corey Patterson over Chris Dickerson
Jeff Keppinger and Jerry Hairston Jr over Danny Richar, Wilkin Castillo, Adam Rosales

Mitigating Factors?
Jerry Hairston Jr had a great season, Richar, Rosales, and Janish combined for an OPS+ of 30.
Dusty did play Jay Bruce in all but 10 games after he was called up, Joey Votto played in 151 games,
Edwin Encarnacion played in 146 games despite making 23 errors.

2009
Alex Gonzalez over Soft J
Wily Taveras over everyone
Ramon Hernandez started season over Hanigan
Encarnacion for Rolen
Mitigating Factors?
Everyone played a lot. 18 different position players had more than 100 AB.
Paul Janish had more starts than anyone else at SS. Rosales had the most starts
at 3b. Because Hernandez filled in at 1b, Hanigan had the most starts at Catcher.
Drew Stubbs came up in July and played in every game but 1. Starting all but 4 times.

2010
Orlando Cabrera over Soft J
Hernandez over Hanigan?
Gomes over Nix/Heisey
Miguel Cairo first guy off bench.
Mitigating Factors?
Cairo had an incredible season.
Nix was constantly injured(no less a vet than Gomes) and Heisey struggled when put in lineup.
Stubbs and Bruce allowed to play through slumps.
Everyone on team seemed to respect Cabrera's clutchy veteranness.
Janish did play in 82 games, so it's not like he was completely unused.

RED VAN HOT
01-06-2011, 10:58 PM
I like the signing. He has been to the postseason 7 times and WS three. I think he is an improvement over Cabrera at this stage in their careers. The Reds will start the season better off at SS than last year.

It is also consistent with WJ's history. ER played for him in St Louis. WJ seems to be building the team largely from within the system. Those players that he has brought in have been on short term, affordable contracts in order to provide depth and experience until a clear successor emerged from the minors. Even Rolen had his contract reworked in such a way that it fit the longer term strategy. IMO he is trying to build a core of largely home grown players who want to play in Cincinnati.

The move makes it likely that Valaika is either traded or sent back to Louisville. The latter move would result in a bit of middle infield congestion at AAA.

WVPacman
01-07-2011, 12:02 AM
I don't mind it as long as he isn't the everyday starter at SS.


I agree OBM,I think its time to give Janish a chance to start atleast to see if he can handle being in the spotlight.He might not be able to handle it but I think he deserves a shot.

camisadelgolf
01-07-2011, 01:05 AM
In the history of MLB, only 9 shortstops have posted the following slash line over 2,000 games: .280/.340/.400.
Just think about that. Less than 10 shortstops have given that production over the course of 2,000 games. I'm not saying the guy's a future HoF'er, but that's pretty darn impressive.

corkedbat
01-07-2011, 01:08 AM
I said a week or two ago that there would be a LH bat and a veteran INF who could play SS. We are at that bare minimum.

I really don't mind this signing because they weren't gonna deal for a solid SS in his prime and Renteria is pretty much as good as anyone left.I'm not gonna pass judgement on the SS competition. I wanna see how it plays out in zona.

Not sure were Renteria will hit (my guess is 1st, 2nd or 8th). He's certainly not my idea of an ideal leadoff hitter, but I'd rather have he, Phillips or Stubbs than the signing of Posednik I fear is coming. I'd be OK with Lewis, but I'm not even sure his OBP would be worth sacraficing power in LF. I'm still holding out hope that WJ has a bat with pop up his sleeve in left.

Ron Madden
01-07-2011, 03:00 AM
No, no, no. Go read the thread, people are saying they like this signing but they "feel bad for Paul Janish."

No, No, No. I Never said a word about PJ's feelings.

I said that I don't expect them to just hand the starting SS job to Janish, I just hope PJ is given a fair shot to win the job.

reds44
01-07-2011, 03:02 AM
No, No, No. I Never said a word about PJ's feelings.

I said that I don't expect them to just hand the starting SS job to Janish, I just hope PJ is given a fair shot to win the job.
I didn't realize you were the only person posting in this thread...

Ron Madden
01-07-2011, 03:26 AM
I didn't realize you were the only person posting in this thread...

Didn't mean it that way.

I guess I like Renteria better than OCab or Seabass though. ;)

mth123
01-07-2011, 04:41 AM
I like ER as an alternative to Cairo. I don't really like having them both and pushing Juan Francisco to AAA. I think the Reds need more than 1 LH bat on the bench and like the idea of having somebody who can play 3B a couple times a week who can provide some production that might drop off considerably when Rolen sits.

This signing in and of itself isn't bad, it just points to what a bad idea that bringing Cairo back on a two year deal was.

GAC
01-07-2011, 04:45 AM
To those that don't like this signing - and we needed another SS as a backup to Janish - if not ER at 3M, then who? The SS market is pretty lean.

Will M
01-07-2011, 05:18 AM
I like ER as an alternative to Cairo. I don't really like having them both and pushing Juan Francisco to AAA. I think the Reds need more than 1 LH bat on the bench and like the idea of having somebody who can play 3B a couple times a week who can provide some production that might drop off considerably when Rolen sits.

This signing in and of itself isn't bad, it just points to what a bad idea that bringing Cairo back on a two year deal was.

Either:
A) 11 man pitching staff
B) Francisco goes to AAA & Cairo starts at 3B when Rolen can't play
C) we go with 4 outfielders & use Cairo as the emergency outfielder

My personal preference (if at all possible) would be to get a left handed bat for left field & trade Gomes to an AL team needing help at DH. Then go with 4 outfielders. That would let us have a six man bench. I'd prefer to deal an excess starter & get a solid bat. However even Fred Lewis would help. IMO the team needs 2 more left handed bats to go with Votto & Bruce.

reds44
01-07-2011, 05:21 AM
Didn't mean it that way.

I guess I like Renteria better than OCab or Seabass though. ;)
Oh this place loved the Seabass nickname...lol.

mth123
01-07-2011, 05:44 AM
Either:
A) 11 man pitching staff
B) Francisco goes to AAA & Cairo starts at 3B when Rolen can't play
C) we go with 4 outfielders & use Cairo as the emergency outfielder

My personal preference (if at all possible) would be to get a left handed bat for left field & trade Gomes to an AL team needing help at DH. Then go with 4 outfielders. That would let us have a six man bench. I'd prefer to deal an excess starter & get a solid bat. However even Fred Lewis would help. IMO the team needs 2 more left handed bats to go with Votto & Bruce.

I'd be happy if the team acquied an established player to start or at least platoon in LF, but I'm OK with Hermida as one of the OF and as a LH bat for the bench (I think Hermida might win the LF job at some point). That leaves:

5 OF with Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, Heisey and Hermida

2 Catchers in Hanigan and Hernandez

6 IF in Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Janish, Renteria and Cairo

Add 12 pitchers and the 25 man is full.

I think that still isn't enough LH bats on the bench and I'm not thrilled with Cairo getting as much playing time as I think the team should be giving to Rolen's caddy. It pushes Francisco back to AAA, clogs 3B there and prevents Todd Frazier getting his once and for all season to see how he does as an every day 3B. It also makes it difficult to give Hermida a shot at winning the LF job because if he's in the line-up there is no LH bat for the bench.

Signing Renteria is a good move, but the rush to lock in mediocrity by bringing back Cairo (and Ramon) is a part of the off-season I still don't understand.

Will M
01-07-2011, 06:07 AM
I'd be happy if the team acquied an established player to start or at least platoon in LF, but I'm OK with Hermida as one of the OF and as a LH bat for the bench (I think Hermida might win the LF job at some point). That leaves:

5 OF with Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, Heisey and Hermida

2 Catchers in Hanigan and Hernandez

6 IF in Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Janish, Renteria and Cairo

Add 12 pitchers and the 25 man is full.

I think that still isn't enough LH bats on the bench and I'm not thrilled with Cairo getting as much playing time as I think the team should be giving to Rolen's caddy. It pushes Francisco back to AAA, clogs 3B there and prevents Todd Frazier getting his once and for all season to see how he does as an every day 3B. It also makes it difficult to give Hermida a shot at winning the LF job because if he's in the line-up there is no LH bat for the bench.

Signing Renteria is a good move, but the rush to lock in mediocrity by bringing back Cairo (and Ramon) is a part of the off-season I still don't understand.

I think I added wrong. IF the team could get a real left fielder then move Gomes we could go with four outfielders with a five man bench & a 12 man pitching staff.

I think I am not as big of a fan of Hermida as others. I look at him as a guy who might turn it around as a bench player whereas others look at him as possibly a starter. The guy was really bad last year.

I really hope Walt has some sort of plan. AAA could be stacked with guys like Leake, Lecure, Maloney, Francisco, & several decent bullpen arms. Yet we might see Gomes get 450 PAs & Cairo start 50 games at 3B. A trade or two would seem to have been the better offseason plan then adding middling guys to the major league team.

cumberlandreds
01-07-2011, 07:51 AM
Pretty much a lateral move from Cabrera to Renteria. Jocketty has been good with these deals for the last year and half. So I will trust him on this one. He has plenty of playoff and World Series experience so he knows what it takes to get things done on a daily basis. Also you really can't go wrong with picking up the current World Series MVP.

Edd Roush
01-07-2011, 08:40 AM
I like ER as an alternative to Cairo. I don't really like having them both and pushing Juan Francisco to AAA. I think the Reds need more than 1 LH bat on the bench and like the idea of having somebody who can play 3B a couple times a week who can provide some production that might drop off considerably when Rolen sits.

This signing in and of itself isn't bad, it just points to what a bad idea that bringing Cairo back on a two year deal was.

mth, I usually agree with you on most topics, but I have to disagree that pushing Juan Francisco to AAA is a bad thing. Juan is clearly developing and showing flashes of being an above average ballplayer. I do not believe he is ready to be a major league starter at this time, but I do think he can get there one day. For him to get to this level, I believe he will need consistent ABs, which would not be available to him when Rolen is healthy in Cincinnati (unless we make him the left hander in the plattoon in left field, which then takes his focus off third base, which leaves us without a third baseman of the future). I like the idea of letting Juan Francisco beat around AAA pitching for another year while focusing on his third base defense. If Rolen goes to the DL (likely), than Francisco can come up and start every day. I just don't see the value of him on the bench when he could continue developing at AAA.

The same is true with Cozart which is why I think this Renteria signing is probably good for Cozart's long-term prospects.

BTW Alonso-Valaika-Cozart-Francisco is a helluva AAA infield

PuffyPig
01-07-2011, 08:53 AM
Signing Renteria is a good move, but the rush to lock in mediocrity by bringing back Cairo (and Ramon) is a part of the off-season I still don't understand.

I think Ramon was brought back becuase the team prefers to carry two catchers.....;)

SEriuosly, Hernendez and hannigan together formed one of the most productive catching situatuions in the majors. With Mess needing more development time, it looks like a positive move.

BTW, I expect to see Francisco in AAA but will be recalled and installed as a regular at third when Rolen (invariably) goes on the DL from time to time.

Heath
01-07-2011, 09:18 AM
I just did my household bills for the month and this popped into mind.

If Arthur Rhodes is signed by the Reds, do we even get EdRen?

Is this signing of ER to $3M part of the $6M that's was "allegedly" saved, or was this a budget item from before?

wheels
01-07-2011, 09:35 AM
I just did my household bills for the month and this popped into mind.

If Arthur Rhodes is signed by the Reds, do we even get EdRen?

Is this signing of ER to $3M part of the $6M that's was "allegedly" saved, or was this a budget item from before?

I think that if they signed Rhodes, we wouldn't see Renteria or Hermida in a Reds uniform.

I'm not great guns about either of them, but like them better than Rhodes alone.

REDREAD
01-07-2011, 09:46 AM
It's good to have depth. If Janish were to get hurt the Reds would be screwed at SS.


That's the best summary and reason for doing this. It's nice to be a contending team and have to worry about depth :)

I think Renteria has the inside track on the starting job. My guess is that the Reds think Janish is a backup at best. Yes, I'm a bit biased, as I think that too.

If you compare how they handled Stubbs to how they handled Janish, it's pretty clear they had much more confidence in Stubbs becoming a solid player. Nix was brought in to be the fallback plan in CF. So Walt's backup plan for CF was a waiver wire pickup (Nix).. That shows a lot of confidence in Stubbs. In contrast, Walt felt the need to get Returia/OCab to cover for Janish.

I guess, I'm saying we should expect Returia to get the bulk of the playing time.

REDREAD
01-07-2011, 09:51 AM
New Year's Resolutions

1) Lose 10 pounds
2) Stop drinking
3) Fill out roster

:lol:

I know everyone is joking, but I think Walt has a great feel for the market.
He probably approached Renteria months ago, and it took Renteria time to decide that he wasn't going to get a better offer than Cincy. He wisely waited out Gomes a long time last year.

I'd like to thank the Giants for dissing Edgar with that 1 million contract offer.

REDREAD
01-07-2011, 10:00 AM
My only thing about all these nickel and dime moves (Rentaria, Cairo, Gomes) is that they add up, and we maybe could've gotten a decent LFer for the same cost.

That's a fair point. Even though we signed Hermedia, I'd argue that Walt still needs to look for an OF of at least backup quality.

The thing is.. if you don't sign Renturia, Cario, Gomes, you still need bodies to fill those roles. Sure, we'd have someone like Willingham in LF, but we'd still need 3 players to fill those backup roles.

At this point, I am going to guess that there's still some money left to upgrade LF, if the ideal target is found. For example, if we could trade for an OF making maybe 4 milion/year, I think Cast would sign off on it.

REDREAD
01-07-2011, 10:12 AM
Heisey & Nix combined on 2.8 WAR in 400 PAs in the outfield. Gomes had -0.1 WAR in 570 PAs in left.
.


That's certainly a fair statement to support your argument. I am starting to think though that WAR overvalues defense. Most of the time defense is underrated, but I think WAR goes too far the other way.

Gomes has his warts, that's for sure, but he was a solid part of an offense that lead the league in runs scored (or at least we were toward the end of the season)..

Gomes got extremely hot early in the season. He and Rolen really got the contention jump started. I think that warrants a little extra patience.

Nix and Heisley are better defensively. There is no doubt about that. But they are bottom of the order bats. Gomes was a RH power source that the team really needed and benefited from.

I guess my point is that one can't always look at WAR in a vacuum. Heisley was given a lengthy audition as a starter and failed. Heisley really contributed off the bench, and I appreciate that. He will get another opportunity this year to win a job, I am pretty certain of that. I do not want Nix as an everyday player, despite what WAR says.

Historically, teams have accepted poor defense in LF in order to get some slugging in the lineup. IMO, there's a reason for that. Not a whole lot of impact defenders in LF. Nix gets almost all his WAR from defense (I would guess).. Not sure how that translates on the field.

There was another thread, when Dunn left.. Someone picked two backup OF (I think Dickerson was one of them), and their projected combined WAR was either greater or close to Dunn's WAR, largely because of defense.. Obviously, replacing someone like Dunn is not that simple.

Kc61
01-07-2011, 10:33 AM
I think that still isn't enough LH bats on the bench and I'm not thrilled with Cairo getting as much playing time as I think the team should be giving to Rolen's caddy. It pushes Francisco back to AAA, clogs 3B there and prevents Todd Frazier getting his once and for all season to see how he does as an every day 3B. It also makes it difficult to give Hermida a shot at winning the LF job because if he's in the line-up there is no LH bat for the bench.

.


This post makes an important point.

Right now, the Reds have a grand total of two lefty hitters (Bruce and Votto) definitely on the team, excluding pitchers of course.

Hermida would be a third, still a very small number. And Hermida is unlikely to play very much.

The bench currently is Cairo, Renteria, Hanigan, Heisey -- all righty hitters -- and possibly Hermida.

Let's assume the Reds add Lewis or Posdednik, pushing Hermida to AAA.

Then the Reds would have an all righty bench of Gomes, Heisey, Renteria, Hanigan, and Cairo. Not a lefty among them.

This is probably just how it is, the Reds will be overly right handed, and so be it. But it would be good to have a bit more balance.

And the Reds almost never keep just 11 pitchers, so I don't see the bench expanding to 6 players.

REDREAD
01-07-2011, 10:35 AM
All right, I tried my best to look objectively at what we'd consider Dusty's vet love.
So I broke it down by year. Please let me know if I missed anyone.
2008
Paul Bako and David Ross over Ryan Hanigan
Corey Patterson over Chris Dickerson
Jeff Keppinger and Jerry Hairston Jr over Danny Richar, Wilkin Castillo, Adam Rosales




Patterson got off to a fast start, then struggled. He was benched and only got playing time later due to injuries. IIRC, Dickerson was hurt quite a bit that year. We can say that Dusty gave Patterson 6 weeks when he should've only given him a 4 week audition (not exact numbers, making a point), but that is Dusty. He shows patience with his players. Sometimes too much. It has burned him by leaving a young starting pitcher in too long, but that's just Dusty. He does that to everyone, not just vets. I think he feels that confidence is a big thing.

Keppinger was a bad SS, but the best of the bunch. The rest of those young players simply stunk.

Hannigan wasn't even on the roster until Aug 10, 2008 http://bigredmachinefans.blogspot.com/2008/08/ryan-hannigan-finally-called-up.html , so that's not Dusty's fault.




2009
Alex Gonzalez over Soft J
Wily Taveras over everyone
Ramon Hernandez started season over Hanigan
Encarnacion for Rolen
Mitigating Factors?
Everyone played a lot. 18 different position players had more than 100 AB.
Paul Janish had more starts than anyone else at SS. Rosales had the most starts
at 3b. Because Hernandez filled in at 1b, Hanigan had the most starts at Catcher.
Drew Stubbs came up in July and played in every game but 1. Starting all but 4 times.



As you said, when Stubbs came up, he played.
That team had poor depth in OF. Darnell McDonald was the backup CF.
Dickerson had a slow start (662 OPS in Apr/March).. He did well as a part time player, but based on his career, he seems like one of those guys that does better as a backup. But yes, I will agree that he was a better option than Wily. The point is that Dickerson was no Drew Stubbs.

As for 2010, I think they did an excellent job with Hannagan and Hernadez sharing the job. Janish out OPSed OCab, but OCab was a pretty good contributor early in the season, before he got hurt. I agree that running OCab out there before he was fully recovered did not pay off.. but again, these are human beings, not a computer game. Dusty does not want to upset the apple cart. The players wanted OCab out there.

So, I think you have a solid case that Dickerson should've played more over Wily. How Dusty handled the SS last year is a toss up, IMO. I can acknowledge that Janish might've been a better choice in the second half, but it's not a certainty.

I get reminded when Kearns was traded, how it was announced that "it's Deno's time now" and Deno fell on his face. Freel did too. Both these guys were good bench players (when healthy). I think Dusty and Walt think that some players bench production just does not translate if they are started every day.

Hoosier Red
01-07-2011, 10:46 AM
Thanks for the analysis Redread.

More than anything it seems more than a "vet love" is that Dusty simply trusts who he trusts and all evidence to the contrary be damned. That's probably not good news if you're Paul Janish, because Janish has apparantly not gotten into the circle of trust as best as I can tell.

But I think with the Reds at least, Dusty's vet love myth is wildly overstated. A number of the "vet love" cases I made were barely older than the guys they were replacing. For instance, Taveres and Dickerson were roughly the same age(born less than 4 months apart.) Granted Taveres and Patterson were major leaguers long before Dickerson, so they're considered veterans as opposed to to Dickerson, but it's not like those two were 37 year old has beens who were rookies when Baker was still playing.

dfs
01-07-2011, 11:06 AM
So....Anybody think the reds are going to fill out the roster by trading for J.D. Drew? I think it looks like a lock at this point. If they bring back Edmonds Walt will have pretty much recreated the 2003 cardinals as best as he can.

OnBaseMachine
01-07-2011, 11:53 AM
From Jon Heyman:

word is, renteria is getting $2 mil guaranteed plus up to $1 mil in perf bonuses from #reds. great veteran presence (obvs)

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

pedro
01-07-2011, 12:11 PM
T

I think Renteria has the inside track on the starting job. My guess is that the Reds think Janish is a backup at best. Yes, I'm a bit biased, as I think that too.

If you compare how they handled Stubbs to how they handled Janish, it's pretty clear they had much more confidence in Stubbs becoming a solid player. Nix was brought in to be the fallback plan in CF. So Walt's backup plan for CF was a waiver wire pickup (Nix).. That shows a lot of confidence in Stubbs. In contrast, Walt felt the need to get Returia/OCab to cover for Janish.

I guess, I'm saying we should expect Returia to get the bulk of the playing time.

I think that's a fair assumption.

Raisor
01-07-2011, 12:26 PM
Edgar's three year slash line.

.264/.316/ .360/.676

yippie

pedro
01-07-2011, 12:57 PM
Edgar's three year slash line.

.264/.316/ .360/.676

yippie

He's a SS, plus he's been playing in SF and Detroit which aren't exactly hitters havens.

Not sure who you expect the Reds are going to get for 2 million that would be any better.

TRF
01-07-2011, 01:07 PM
He's a SS, plus he's been playing in SF and Detroit which aren't exactly hitters havens.

Not sure who you expect the Reds are going to get for 2 million that would be any better.

That ain't the issue. Why spend 2Mil when you likely have the same player offensively, and likely better (at this stage) defensively for about 1/4th the price.

I don't mind it from a depth pov, but as a starter? why bother?

And without rehashing the vet love myth, we do know when OCab was in the lineup, he batted 1st or 2nd, Janish batted 8th. Any guesses how he'll handle ER/PJ?

pedro
01-07-2011, 01:16 PM
That ain't the issue. Why spend 2Mil when you likely have the same player offensively, and likely better (at this stage) defensively for about 1/4th the price.

I don't mind it from a depth pov, but as a starter? why bother?

And without rehashing the vet love myth, we do know when OCab was in the lineup, he batted 1st or 2nd, Janish batted 8th. Any guesses how he'll handle ER/PJ?

Well, we don't know that he'll be the starter, he may be but at this point we don't know for sure. As for why bothering? Janish isn't exactly a lock to produce even that level of offense and if he returns to the .595 OPS "monster" many of us, including the Reds apparently, think he is, where does that leave the Reds?

If Janish hits in ST like many of his proponents think he will then he'll probably be the starter, if not, then the Reds have a semi reasonable alternative. That's good IMO.

westofyou
01-07-2011, 01:16 PM
That ain't the issue. Why spend 2Mil when you likely have the same player offensively, and likely better (at this stage) defensively for about 1/4th the price.

I don't mind it from a depth pov, but as a starter? why bother?

And without rehashing the vet love myth, we do know when OCab was in the lineup, he batted 1st or 2nd, Janish batted 8th. Any guesses how he'll handle ER/PJ?

Because they have no faith in PJ to fulfill the job by himself

edabbs44
01-07-2011, 01:22 PM
Edgar's three year slash line.

.264/.316/ .360/.676

yippie

For those PJ fans:

Janish 3 year slash line

.226/.308/.326

Razor Shines
01-07-2011, 01:32 PM
For those PJ fans:

Janish 3 year slash line

.226/.308/.326

I guess you have to decide whether or not you believe that Paul Janish is entering his prime years and last year was representative of his offensive value.

I think we can agree that ER's last 3 years is pretty much a good representative of his offensive value...with a perhaps a slight bump for switching to GABP.

IMO, ER and PJ hit about the same this year and I give an edge to PJ on defense.

BUT I would rather see ER playing 3rd base than Cairo when Rolen inevitably goes down.

Wheelhouse
01-07-2011, 01:35 PM
According to the ESPN.com announcement, one of Renteria's reasons for signing with the Reds is that he was lead to believe he will start...

Will M
01-07-2011, 01:44 PM
does anyone know his health status? i have read that he had a torn biceps tendon last year.

The Operator
01-07-2011, 01:44 PM
From Jon Heyman:

word is, renteria is getting $2 mil guaranteed plus up to $1 mil in perf bonuses from #reds. great veteran presence (obvs)

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeymanI like that better than 3M guaranteed. Not much difference, but better IMO.

OnBaseMachine
01-07-2011, 01:47 PM
From Mark Sheldon:


"I feel happy for the opportunity to keep playing shortstop full-time," Renteria said. "That was the main reason to accept the offer from the Reds."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110106&content_id=16400942&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

pedro
01-07-2011, 01:52 PM
From Mark Sheldon:



http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110106&content_id=16400942&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

"Opportunity" doesn't necessarily equate to "guarantee" but it does lead one to believe the Reds definitely aren't sold on the idea that Janish's offensive step forward last year represented a new level of production.

TheNext44
01-07-2011, 01:54 PM
That's the best summary and reason for doing this. It's nice to be a contending team and have to worry about depth :)

I think Renteria has the inside track on the starting job. My guess is that the Reds think Janish is a backup at best. Yes, I'm a bit biased, as I think that too.

If you compare how they handled Stubbs to how they handled Janish, it's pretty clear they had much more confidence in Stubbs becoming a solid player. Nix was brought in to be the fallback plan in CF. So Walt's backup plan for CF was a waiver wire pickup (Nix).. That shows a lot of confidence in Stubbs. In contrast, Walt felt the need to get Returia/OCab to cover for Janish.

I guess, I'm saying we should expect Returia to get the bulk of the playing time.

Except Dusty himself has said that Janish is ready to start at SS after backing up Cabrera last season, and Jocketty said before the Renteria signing that they were looking only for a backup to Janish, which is why it took so long for Reneria to sign. He was looking for a starting job somewhere.

I hate to dissappoint you, but Janish will the Reds starting SS until he loses the job.

westofyou
01-07-2011, 01:56 PM
I hate to dissappoint you, but Janish will the Reds starting SS until he loses the job.

Which looks like it might occur at the presser announcing the signing eh?

Homer Bailey
01-07-2011, 01:56 PM
I hate to dissappoint you, but Janish will the Reds starting SS until he loses the job.

I severely, severely doubt that.

Sig bet says ER is the opening day starter, barring injury.

RedsManRick
01-07-2011, 01:58 PM
Perhaps the emphasis on that quote should be on "shortstop" rather than "full-time". It's possible the other offers were for him to be explicitly a utility guy, if not a 3B or 2B. Thus, he sees this as an opportunity to continue to be a SS when he plays.

TheNext44
01-07-2011, 01:58 PM
According to the ESPN.com announcement, one of Renteria's reasons for signing with the Reds is that he was lead to believe he will start...

Just for the record, that is completely different than what they told Cabrera. He was told he would be the starting SS, not lead to believe.

I guess we'll have to wait to hear what they officially say.

pedro
01-07-2011, 01:59 PM
Perhaps the emphasis on that quote should be on "shortstop" rather than "full-time". It's possible the other offers were for him to be explicitly a utility guy, if not a 3B or 2B. Thus, he sees this as an opportunity to continue to be a SS when he plays.

It could also be that this the only offer where he was told he would have the opportunity to even compete for the starting job.

The Operator
01-07-2011, 02:01 PM
Which looks like it might occur at the presser announcing the signing eh?Well played, sir.

15fan
01-07-2011, 02:03 PM
162 games is a long season. Especially when you're a SS.

Renteria + Janish is good by me.

edabbs44
01-07-2011, 02:04 PM
Perhaps the emphasis on that quote should be on "shortstop" rather than "full-time". It's possible the other offers were for him to be explicitly a utility guy, if not a 3B or 2B. Thus, he sees this as an opportunity to continue to be a SS when he plays.

Possibly, this is from the same article


On Monday, when discussions with Renteria were ongoing, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty was asked if he still planned on Janish being his regular shortstop.

"Absolutely," Jocketty said. "Whoever we sign will be more of a complementary player able to play different positions and have experience."

TheNext44
01-07-2011, 02:04 PM
I severely, severely doubt that.

Sig bet says ER is the opening day starter, barring injury.

We've already bet our reputations on it by simply stating our beliefs on the matter. I don't see the need to do anything else.

We will learn soon enough, but if the Reds do announce Renteria as the new starting SS, it will contradict what they have been saying all off season.

Roy Tucker
01-07-2011, 02:04 PM
grammar boy says "led" and not "lead".

The Voice of IH
01-07-2011, 02:06 PM
That's a fairly strong opinion. Is there any particular reason you feel this way?

Its just another Jocketty old timers. He is way pass his prime (take a look at the stats,)and is not nearly as good with the glove as he used to be. Janish and Valaika would be better candidates. this is IMO, a waste of money because 3 million eats what most think is half of the available money.

TheNext44
01-07-2011, 02:07 PM
Which looks like it might occur at the presser announcing the signing eh?

Lol. We'll see. :)

pedro
01-07-2011, 02:11 PM
Its just another Jocketty old timers. He is way pass his prime (take a look at the stats,)and is not nearly as good with the glove as he used to be. Janish and Valaika would be better candidates. this is IMO, a waste of money because 3 million eats what most think is half of the available money.

Janish and Valaika's stats don't exactly scream "better candidates". Is it possible? perhaps, but it's also a big risk. Plus I'm not sure the Reds consider Valaika's glove of ML SS caliber.

Will M
01-07-2011, 02:16 PM
162 games is a long season. Especially when you're a SS.

Renteria + Janish is good by me.

agree. Lost a bit in looking at Renteria specifically is a couple of things.
while some folks here are ready to sink or swim with Janish & Cozart the Reds braintrust is not. Janish could turn into a pumpkin. Cozart might struggle to make contact & get on base. if EITHER of those things happened the Reds could be in a world of hurt. the remaining guy could just hit a wall in the heat of August & then the team has a big big hole. add to this my suspicion that the Reds think Cozart needs more AAA time & it makes sense for the team to add a shortstop to share the position with Janish. competition is good. depth is good. last year the Reds were about league average in WAR at SS. this signing makes me think they will be the same in 2011. shortstop is a tough position to fill via trade or free agency. add to this the teams budget constraints & the pickings are fairly slim.

I am ok with Janish/Renteria with Cozart in AAA if (bif if) Walt fixes left field. i have thought all along that my fantasies of trading for Stephen Drew were just fantasies. However, if the team is going to go cheap at SS then they need to do better than Gomes/Heisey/Hermida in left. other ORG members were pounding the drum for a TOR starter early in the offseason. i thought that this was the 'icing on the cake' with the cake being an everyday left fielder. Its January 7th. I want my cake!

edabbs44
01-07-2011, 02:18 PM
Its just another Jocketty old timers. He is way pass his prime (take a look at the stats,)and is not nearly as good with the glove as he used to be. Janish and Valaika would be better candidates. this is IMO, a waste of money because 3 million eats what most think is half of the available money.

If Jocketty keeps producing winners, he can make these signings all day.

westofyou
01-07-2011, 02:20 PM
Its just another Jocketty old timers.

Next signing?

http://www.acegames.us/forum/attachments/free-mp3-ringtones/53799d1233210381t-herbert-family-guy-oldman.jpg

TRF
01-07-2011, 02:29 PM
http://www.zokacoffee.com/blog/images/simpsons.jpg

better glove man.

westofyou
01-07-2011, 02:31 PM
New LF

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Wr6RQ1OrNEQ/SoOnaFWucLI/AAAAAAAAA0g/6VHHTFVLe08/s400/Mr.Burns.baseball.jpg

TRF
01-07-2011, 02:36 PM
New LH reliever.
http://tvmedia.ign.com/tv/image/article/109/1095877/futurama-season-6-20100609103054764.jpg

REDREAD
01-07-2011, 02:47 PM
Except Dusty himself has said that Janish is ready to start at SS after backing up Cabrera last season, and Jocketty said before the Renteria signing that they were looking only for a backup to Janish, which is why it took so long for Reneria to sign. He was looking for a starting job somewhere.

I hate to dissappoint you, but Janish will the Reds starting SS until he loses the job.

Well, we can have a friendly wager :) I think Renteria will get more playing time, barring an injury.

I don't remember the exact words Walt and Dusty used, but they need to be careful. Entering this offseason, there's no guarantee that Walt could get what he percieved as an upgrade to Janish. Walt can't come out and say "Well, Janish just isn't going to cut it as the starting SS, we need to get something better".. I guess my point is that you can only put so much stock into what the GM and manager says to the press. They have PR to manage, as well as player's egos.

edabbs44
01-07-2011, 02:48 PM
Oh boy, another one of these threads.

Maybe it's a good sign.

REDREAD
01-07-2011, 02:50 PM
Possibly, this is from the same article


On Monday, when discussions with Renteria were ongoing, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty was asked if he still planned on Janish being his regular shortstop.

"Absolutely," Jocketty said. "Whoever we sign will be more of a complementary player able to play different positions and have experience."



Sure, at the time, that was the plan. Things change though.
I mean, obviously if Walt was able to swing a deal for Hanley Ramerez tommorrow, plans would change again.

BuckeyeRedleg
01-07-2011, 02:53 PM
I'm okay with this. Between Janish, Cozart, and Renteria we're out $3 to $4mil (at most) and any combination of those three over 162 games should get the job done. Renteria is a neutral defender at SS. He OPS'd .707 last year in 267 PA, good for the bottom of the middle of the pack at SS and Bill James projects an OPS of .714 over 479 PA's this year. Bill James projects Janish at an OPS of .643 over 300 PA's, even though he has better glove. Fact is, you're going to need a couple solid SS's over 162 games and we have that. It's obviously not one of our strengths, but so what?

How I'd rank the gloves:

1. Janish
2. Cozart
3. Renteria

Bats:

1. Renteria
2. Cozart
3. Janish

Oh one more thing. He's slightly below Ocabs as a defender, but is a year younger, and is a better hitter. Not an exciting move, but at least it buys Cozart another year of development and makes the club stronger.

Homer Bailey
01-07-2011, 02:57 PM
We've already bet our reputations on it by simply stating our beliefs on the matter. I don't see the need to do anything else.

We will learn soon enough, but if the Reds do announce Renteria as the new starting SS, it will contradict what they have been saying all off season.

True.

However, you do still owe me a sig bet from 2009 :cool::beerme:

reds1869
01-07-2011, 03:03 PM
Well, we can have a friendly wager :) I think Renteria will get more playing time, barring an injury.

Reneria thinks so , too.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/01/07/report-renteria-says-hell-start-at-shortstop (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/01/07/report-renteria-says-hell-start-at-shortstop/)/

TheNext44
01-07-2011, 03:11 PM
True.

However, you do still owe me a sig bet from 2009 :cool::beerme:

No memory of it or what it was about. But I'll change my sig to whatever I agreed to, no problem. Just let me know what I agreed to change it to. :)

Homer Bailey
01-07-2011, 03:18 PM
No memory of it or what it was about. But I'll change my sig to whatever I agreed to, no problem. Just let me know what I agreed to change it to. :)

Haha. I brought it up awhile ago and tried to find the exact posts, but could never find it.

The wager was over the Reds offense in 2009 (or 2008, don't remember). I was being my typical negative self, and if I remember right, the Reds were averaging 4.2 runs per game, and you bet me that by the end of the year, they would be averaging 4.45 runs per game.

(How I can remember this worthless information and can't pass the CPA exam is beyond me).

I'm not sure what the statute of limitations is on these wagers, and since I can't really think of anything funny or creative, I'd say its safe to say you're off the hook. ;)

RedsManRick
01-07-2011, 03:20 PM
I'm okay with this. Between Janish, Cozart, and Renteria we're out $3 to $4mil (at most) and any combination of those three over 162 games should get the job done. Renteria is a neutral defender at SS. He OPS'd .707 last year in 267 PA, good for the bottom of the middle of the pack at SS and Bill James projects an OPS of .714 over 479 PA's this year. Bill James projects Janish at an OPS of .643 over 300 PA's, even though he has better glove. Fact is, you're going to need a couple solid SS's over 162 games and we have that. It's obviously not one of our strengths, but so what?

How I'd rank the gloves:

1. Janish
2. Cozart
3. Renteria

Bats:

1. Renteria
2. Cozart
3. Janish

Oh one more thing. He's slightly below Ocabs as a defender, but is a year younger, and is a better hitter. Not an exciting move, but at least it buys Cozart another year of development and makes the club stronger.

I'm not sure I understand why people seem so convinced Cozart's bat would play in the majors at this point. Yes, he's got some power, but he also hit .255/.310/.416 in AAA. In other words, Janish hit better in the majors than Cozart did in AAA.

I agree with conclusion though. The Reds were not satisfied with Cozart backing up Janish. Regardless of who starts, the Reds are better off with Renteria on board.

Unassisted
01-07-2011, 03:42 PM
Dusty tells the Enquirer that there's no "quarterback controversy" at SS.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/01/07/baker-no-quarterback-controversy-at-short/


Everybody plays on my team. They’re both going to play.

Raisor
01-07-2011, 03:45 PM
If Walt and Dusty are wanting to upgrade over Janish, I'm fine with that. I just don't think Renteria is the guy to do it with.

It's OCab all over again.

westofyou
01-07-2011, 03:54 PM
If Walt and Dusty are wanting to upgrade over Janish, I'm fine with that. I just don't think Renteria is the guy to do it with.

It's OCab all over again.
The position is hard to fill, and despite ocab, the Reds succeeded eh?

TheNext44
01-07-2011, 03:55 PM
Haha. I brought it up awhile ago and tried to find the exact posts, but could never find it.

The wager was over the Reds offense in 2009 (or 2008, don't remember). I was being my typical negative self, and if I remember right, the Reds were averaging 4.2 runs per game, and you bet me that by the end of the year, they would be averaging 4.45 runs per game.

(How I can remember this worthless information and can't pass the CPA exam is beyond me).

I'm not sure what the statute of limitations is on these wagers, and since I can't really think of anything funny or creative, I'd say its safe to say you're off the hook. ;)

Well maybe this will work for now. :)

TheNext44
01-07-2011, 03:58 PM
If Walt and Dusty are wanting to upgrade over Janish, I'm fine with that. I just don't think Renteria is the guy to do it with.

It's OCab all over again.

I don't think they wanted an upgrade over Janish, just one over Cozart.

Janish/Renteria/Cozart in AAA to develop is worth at least $3M more than Janish/Cozart in the majors, imo.

traderumor
01-07-2011, 03:58 PM
Janish and Valaika's stats don't exactly scream "better candidates". Is it possible? perhaps, but it's also a big risk. Plus I'm not sure the Reds consider Valaika's glove of ML SS caliber.Valaika barely had enough range to pass at 2b from what I saw in his cup of coffee last year.

Raisor
01-07-2011, 04:14 PM
The position is hard to fill, and despite ocab, the Reds succeeded eh?


I keep hearing about all the surplus pitching the Reds have. Time to use some of it to upgrade the position. For next year now, I guess.

edabbs44
01-07-2011, 04:47 PM
Dusty tells the Enquirer that there's no "quarterback controversy" at SS.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/01/07/baker-no-quarterback-controversy-at-short/

I like this quote better for those on the ledge.


“I don’t know. We don’t have a quarterback controversy at short. Everybody plays on my team. They’re both going to play. Janish is younger. Edgar is more experienced. Janish deserves a chance to be my shortstop.”

Caveat Emperor
01-07-2011, 04:56 PM
Dusty tells the Enquirer that there's no "quarterback controversy" at SS.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/01/07/baker-no-quarterback-controversy-at-short/

So, to put it another way --

They got Edgar Renteria, but they ain't got no crystal ball.

Raisor
01-07-2011, 04:59 PM
So, to put it another way --

They got Edgar Renteria, but they ain't got no crystal ball.

They had 2.1 million dollars, but they spent it all.

camisadelgolf
01-07-2011, 05:03 PM
So, to put it another way --

They got Edgar Renteria, but they ain't got no crystal ball.
That's what they got. I said remember that.

BuckeyeRedleg
01-07-2011, 05:11 PM
I'm not sure I understand why people seem so convinced Cozart's bat would play in the majors at this point. Yes, he's got some power, but he also hit .255/.310/.416 in AAA. In other words, Janish hit better in the majors than Cozart did in AAA.

I just think Cozart is a tad better offensively than Janish. While he did go for an OPS of .723 in 2010, PJ's career OPS is .634 (Bill James even projects him at to be at .643 in 2011) so the fact that he was .723 over 200 PA's doesn't mean he's a lock to duplicate or even improve on it.

Cozart isn't that much better in the minors, I understand. Cozart has a .739 career OPS compared to .730 for Janish. I just think he's better. It's close, but if I had to rank them, I'd go with Cozart, who also has a higher ceiling IMO.

15fan
01-07-2011, 09:44 PM
The position is hard to fill

This.

There isn't a Larkin or Concepcion in the pipeline. It may be another quarter of a century before there is. With all of the young pitching on the roster, I'm ok with some solid play from the SS. It can't always be spectacular.

I think it's also worth mentioning (if it hasn't already been), that he's a native Spanish speaker. Not a bad thing to have one of those guys anchoring the IF D with young pitchers like Cueto, Volquez, & Chapman on the mound on any given day

Wheelhouse
01-07-2011, 09:50 PM
If Walt and Dusty are wanting to upgrade over Janish, I'm fine with that. I just don't think Renteria is the guy to do it with.

It's OCab all over again.

I agree, but I think it's a little different in this: Renteria was the World Series MVP, OCab was a nonfactor in the playoffs.

jojo
01-07-2011, 10:11 PM
That's certainly a fair statement to support your argument. I am starting to think though that WAR overvalues defense. Most of the time defense is underrated, but I think WAR goes too far the other way.

Gomes has his warts, that's for sure, but he was a solid part of an offense that lead the league in runs scored (or at least we were toward the end of the season)...

Gomes was a league average bat last season. A league average bat with significant defensive deficiencies isn't a solution in LF. It's actually barely a compromise at DH.

Ron Madden
01-08-2011, 05:12 AM
Gomes was a league average bat last season. A league average bat with significant defensive deficiencies isn't a solution in LF. It's actually barely a compromise at DH.

But.. but.. but what about all those RBI? ;)

GAC
01-08-2011, 05:57 AM
If Walt and Dusty are wanting to upgrade over Janish, I'm fine with that. I just don't think Renteria is the guy to do it with.

It's OCab all over again.

I understand where you're coming from Phil, and I haven't read this entire thread, but what was your solution to the "situation" at SS? Should we have a back-up to Janish, who we all know is a fine defensive SS, but whose bat is pretty BLECH over the long haul? Yes? No? And who should that back-up be , if any?

There just aren't any really sound, quality SS's in the FA market to be had right now. And even if so, who can afford them? Not the Reds.

And who do we hand the job to if PJ gets hurt?

mth123
01-08-2011, 06:17 AM
mth, I usually agree with you on most topics, but I have to disagree that pushing Juan Francisco to AAA is a bad thing. Juan is clearly developing and showing flashes of being an above average ballplayer. I do not believe he is ready to be a major league starter at this time, but I do think he can get there one day. For him to get to this level, I believe he will need consistent ABs, which would not be available to him when Rolen is healthy in Cincinnati (unless we make him the left hander in the plattoon in left field, which then takes his focus off third base, which leaves us without a third baseman of the future). I like the idea of letting Juan Francisco beat around AAA pitching for another year while focusing on his third base defense. If Rolen goes to the DL (likely), than Francisco can come up and start every day. I just don't see the value of him on the bench when he could continue developing at AAA.

The same is true with Cozart which is why I think this Renteria signing is probably good for Cozart's long-term prospects.

BTW Alonso-Valaika-Cozart-Francisco is a helluva AAA infield

You might be right about these things, but I want the Reds to win the World Series in 2011. That isn't going to happen if Rolen has to start 145 games at 3B and it isn't going to happen if the Reds have a punch and judy caddy for him like Cairo getting 50 starts per year. It also would probably help if the team would have additional LH bats off the bench preferably with some power who could be available when the need arises.

As for the future, Rolen is already in decline and filling 3B is going to be one of the major tasks facing this team if the contention window is to extend beyond 2012 like most of us hope. IMO, if that is to be done from within, the best way to do that would be to give Francisco a whirl in a part-time role in the major leagues so that he can see some higher quality pitching and learn to adjust to it, so that he can be evaluated as an option for the future and to free-up 3B in AAA so that the team can decide once and for all if Todd Frazier is an option there. I think Francisco on the roster in 2011 helps the current team and the future about as much as anything the Reds could do when putting its bench together.

camisadelgolf
01-08-2011, 10:30 AM
But.. but.. but what about all those RBI? ;)
It's page 6 (on my template), and that's the first mention of RBIs. Way to pick up the slack, Ron! :)

Heath
01-08-2011, 10:43 AM
I don't think this is the last signing for the Reds before opening day. There's one more coming.

/random baseless speculation

RedsManRick
01-08-2011, 11:05 AM
I know this is sacrilege around here, but Concepcion's skill set may have been closer to Paul Janish than Barry Larkin. I know it was a different era, but he did have a career OPS of .679 and OPS+ of just 88. Elite defenders at SS who can hit "good enough" at the major league level don't grow on trees.

Will M
01-08-2011, 11:16 AM
I don't think this is the last signing for the Reds before opening day. There's one more coming.

/random baseless speculation

I'll bet thats it is Fred Lweis or Scott Podsednik for $2M. This would make a less than ideal & very uncreative offseason for the Reds Braintrust.

pedro
01-08-2011, 11:17 AM
I know this is sacrilege around here, but Concepcion's skill set may have been closer to Paul Janish than Barry Larkin. I know it was a different era, but he did have a career OPS of .679 and OPS+ of just 88. Elite defenders at SS who can hit "good enough" at the major league level don't grow on trees.

Paul Janish isn't an elite level defensive player.

RANDY IN INDY
01-08-2011, 11:19 AM
I know this is sacrilege around here, but Concepcion's skill set may have been closer to Paul Janish than Barry Larkin. I know it was a different era, but he did have a career OPS of .679 and OPS+ of just 88. Elite defenders at SS who can hit "good enough" at the major league level don't grow on trees.

While I will agree with you that Concepcion was never an elite type hitter, only time will tell if Janish can ever hit at Concepcion's level. Davey got better as his career went on and his body filled out. Concepcion was fortunate not to have to be an offensive force in the lineup, particularly early in his career. He carried a little bigger load later in his career.

As far as defense is concerned, I have never seen anyone better than Concepcion. His range was tremendous, his arm was strong and he made everything look very easy in a fundamental way, which may have been his biggest downfall where the legacy is concerned. Always made the routine play and made the exceptional play look routine.

westofyou
01-08-2011, 11:20 AM
Paul Janish isn't an elite level defensive player.

Let's throw him on plastic 75% of the season and see how he fares.

Redsfan320
01-08-2011, 11:22 AM
How's ER been as a PH historically? He seems to be pretty clutch, and could be a decent righty-RBI weapon off the bench.

320

westofyou
01-08-2011, 11:26 AM
How's ER been as a PH historically? He seems to be pretty clutch, and could be a decent righty-RBI weapon off the bench.

320

Teams traditionally don't PH for their SS in most cases, that's why the majority of SS's are RH hitters, so they aren't susceptible to loogy's. They also won't waste many PH opps on key defensive BU (if they aren't taking the field) It's like sacrificing a pawn too soon in most case.

RR has 4 PH appearances (all last year) in his last 1300 ab's

pedro
01-08-2011, 11:28 AM
While I will agree with you that Concepcion was never an elite type hitter, only time will tell if Janish can ever hit at Concepcion's level. Davey got better as his career went on and his body filled out. Concepcion was fortunate not to have to be an offensive force in the lineup, particularly early in his career. He carried a little bigger load later in his career.

As far as defense is concerned, I have never seen anyone better than Concepcion. His range was tremendous, his arm was strong and he made everything look very easy in a fundamental way, which may have been his biggest downfall where the legacy is concerned. Always made the routine play and made the exceptional play look routine.

I agree. Concepcion was phenominal.

Redsfan320
01-08-2011, 11:31 AM
Teams traditionally don't PH for their SS in most cases, that's why the majority of SS's are RH hitters, so they aren't susceptible to loogy's. They also won't waste many PH opps on key defensive BU (if they aren't taking the field) It's like sacrificing a pawn too soon in most case.

The rest of what you said makes sense, but I wouldn't be PHing for the SS. I'd be PHing for the P, then subbing out ER for another P. True that we'd have no backup SS for the rest of the game, but what are the odds we'd need one really. Even I wouldn't be all that upset if we had to use Cairo at SS for an inning or two.


RR has 4 PH appearances (all last year) in his last 1300 ab's

Ah, so historically he hasn't been a PH at all. Huh.

320

RedsManRick
01-08-2011, 11:38 AM
While I will agree with you that Concepcion was never an elite type hitter, only time will tell if Janish can ever hit at Concepcion's level. Davey got better as his career went on and his body filled out. Concepcion was fortunate not to have to be an offensive force in the lineup, particularly early in his career. He carried a little bigger load later in his career.

As far as defense is concerned, I have never seen anyone better than Concepcion. His range was tremendous, his arm was strong and he made everything look very easy in a fundamental way, which may have been his biggest downfall where the legacy is concerned. Always made the routine play and made the exceptional play look routine.

Don't get me wrong, Randy. I'm not suggesting Janish is as good as Concepcion. However, both guys produce the bulk of their value through their defense. I was simply highlighting than even when we cite the examples of great shortstops, we end up citing guys who weren't exactly big threats at the plate. Larkin has really spoiled us.

Unassisted
01-08-2011, 11:58 AM
I don't think this is the last signing for the Reds before opening day. There's one more coming.

/random baseless speculationIf the determination is made that the Votto LTC is a lost cause, I could imagine that money going toward more than one signing.

PuffyPig
01-08-2011, 02:07 PM
If the determination is made that the Votto LTC is a lost cause, I could imagine that money going toward more than one signing.

Whether we sign Votto to a long term contract or not, his salary should be about the same this year. In fact there may well be less money with no signing, as I assume if he signs there will be some back loading to the end.

mth123
01-08-2011, 06:46 PM
I know this is sacrilege around here, but Concepcion's skill set may have been closer to Paul Janish than Barry Larkin. I know it was a different era, but he did have a career OPS of .679 and OPS+ of just 88. Elite defenders at SS who can hit "good enough" at the major league level don't grow on trees.

From age 25 to age 34, Concepcion's OPS+ was over 100 6 times, it was 97 once and in his bad years was in the 83 to 87 range.

Concepcion came-up at age 22 before he was grown up and put up years of 70, 44 and 59 which skew his overall totals. Janish was already 25 when he debuted and even last season when he was protected from wearing down with extended playing time and matched favorably was still below 100 (I'd take 96 from him each year though). I'd guess that Janish would have a hard time matching Concepcion's 88 number in any individual season with full-time play.

As for defense, Janish defense is way over rated on this board. He's a solid and capable infielder and I've no problems with his defense, but he isn't special or elite. You say we've been spoiled by Larkin, but I think the opposite has happened. We've lived through Larkin's decline, Felipe Lopez, Jerry Hairston, Jeff Keppinger and Rich Aurilia and we've reached the point of mistaking competence for greatness.

Blitz Dorsey
01-09-2011, 03:05 AM
Concepcion was much-better defensively than Janish. To suggest that Davey and Janish are on the same level defensively is an immense sign of disrespect to Davey. Janish is very good, but Davey was on a different level.

GAC
01-09-2011, 06:26 AM
While I will agree with you that Concepcion was never an elite type hitter, only time will tell if Janish can ever hit at Concepcion's level. Davey got better as his career went on and his body filled out. Concepcion was fortunate not to have to be an offensive force in the lineup, particularly early in his career. He carried a little bigger load later in his career.

As far as defense is concerned, I have never seen anyone better than Concepcion. His range was tremendous, his arm was strong and he made everything look very easy in a fundamental way, which may have been his biggest downfall where the legacy is concerned. Always made the routine play and made the exceptional play look routine.


I agree. Concepcion was phenominal.

:thumbup:

DC was probably the best athlete on that team. An all-star 9 times, GG winner 4 times.

Janish has been with the club 3 years (2008-1010). So lets look at a 3 year comparison, age 25-27, on the two. Davey's numbers are first.....


AGE GAMES BA OB% SLG% OPS

25 89 .287 ,327 .432 .760
26 160 .281 .335 .397 .732
27 140 .274 .326 .353 .679



25 38 .188 .270 .250 .520
26 90 .211 .296 .305 .601
27 82 .260 .338 .385 .723

There is no comparison. And as far as defensive numbers go, how can one do a fair comparison between two SSs when one spent most of his career playing on artificial turf vs natural grass?

Janish, IMO, is another example of taking a utility player, a great guy to have on your bench, a good glove, and trying to make him a starter.

remdog
01-09-2011, 08:18 AM
From age 25 to age 34, Concepcion's OPS+ was over 100 6 times, it was 97 once and in his bad years was in the 83 to 87 range.

Concepcion came-up at age 22 before he was grown up and put up years of 70, 44 and 59 which skew his overall totals. Janish was already 25 when he debuted and even last season when he was protected from wearing down with extended playing time and matched favorably was still below 100 (I'd take 96 from him each year though). I'd guess that Janish would have a hard time matching Concepcion's 88 number in any individual season with full-time play.

As for defense, Janish defense is way over rated on this board. He's a solid and capable infielder and I've no problems with his defense, but he isn't special or elite. You say we've been spoiled by Larkin, but I think the opposite has happened. We've lived through Larkin's decline, Felipe Lopez, Jerry Hairston, Jeff Keppinger and Rich Aurilia and we've reached the point of mistaking competence for greatness.

:clap:

And GAC and Blitz: :clap: to you two also.

Rem

remdog
01-09-2011, 08:30 AM
I know this is sacrilege around here, but Concepcion's skill set may have been closer to Paul Janish than Barry Larkin. I know it was a different era, but he did have a career OPS of .679 and OPS+ of just 88. Elite defenders at SS who can hit "good enough" at the major league level don't grow on trees.

No, Rick that's not just sacrilege. It shows an inability to observe a players' ability without looking at numbers. Maybe you aren't old enough to have seen Concepcion play but, as others have pointed out, numbers won't tell the story here.

Davy should be in the HOF, IMO. To suggest that Paul Janish is, somehow, even close to DC's abilities is to either denigrate Davy or elevate Janish to the extreme.

Rem

PuffyPig
01-09-2011, 08:37 AM
I know this is sacrilege around here, but Concepcion's skill set may have been closer to Paul Janish than Barry Larkin. I know it was a different era, but he did have a career OPS of .679 and OPS+ of just 88. Elite defenders at SS who can hit "good enough" at the major league level don't grow on trees.

It was a different era, and that makes all the difference.

RANDY IN INDY
01-09-2011, 09:14 AM
I would take that "different era" Concepcion guy on my team in any era.

GAC
01-09-2011, 09:16 AM
Whether we sign Votto to a long term contract or not, his salary should be about the same this year.

He's arb eligible, and made only $525,000 last year. After his 2010 NL MVP performance, look for something in the 7M range from arbitration. Jocketty states they have had preliminary talks with Votto's agents, but they haven't talked hard numbers yet.

Mainspark
01-09-2011, 10:38 AM
I'm aware there's some 21st century theory that there's really no such thing as "clutch" hitting, but there was in the 1970s.
And Concepcion had a knack for it. When a game was on the line in late innings, he ranked near the top of the guys on that incredibly talented team you wanted to see coming to the plate.
It's not to criticize Paul Janish to suggest that's not likely to ever be the case with him.

traderumor
01-09-2011, 01:09 PM
Don't get me wrong, Randy. I'm not suggesting Janish is as good as Concepcion. However, both guys produce the bulk of their value through their defense. I was simply highlighting than even when we cite the examples of great shortstops, we end up citing guys who weren't exactly big threats at the plate. Larkin has really spoiled us.I gotta chime in. The athlete/shortstop was just evolving, and he bridged the gap between the Roger Metzger types that dotted the landscapes in the early part of and throughout the 70s and the 80s athlete/shortstop genre that Larkin is a member of. For a SS who was excellent defensively, he also had a stick.

In his era, teams were settling for even average D/poor stick SSs, like a Chris Speier, more often than they were getting a Larry Bowa. Add to that a lot of his D came on turf that was fast and required enormous range, and it is laughable that Ozzie is in the HOF and Davey is not. Call it eyes bias or whatever, but Concepcion was a pioneer and showed that you could have an athletic player as the anchor of your defense. It is a travesty that he is not in the HOF yet.

Tony Cloninger
01-09-2011, 01:20 PM
I'm aware there's some 21st century theory that there's really no such thing as "clutch" hitting, but there was in the 1970s.
And Concepcion had a knack for it. When a game was on the line in late innings, he ranked near the top of the guys on that incredibly talented team you wanted to see coming to the plate.
It's not to criticize Paul Janish to suggest that's not likely to ever be the case with him.

I was just about to say that.....he was really good with coming up with that dreaded "clutch" hit ...that does not exist but he seemed to do a good job of it.
Perez rubbed off on Davey in more ways than just getting adjusted to life in the US.

mth123
01-09-2011, 02:41 PM
Paul Janish should aspire to be Dal Maxvill or Gene Michael. For now he's still Gary Greene IMO.

He is in no way shape or form in the same universe as Dave Concepcion offensively or defensively.

RedsManRick
01-09-2011, 03:33 PM
No, Rick that's not just sacrilege. It shows an inability to observe a players' ability without looking at numbers. Maybe you aren't old enough to have seen Concepcion play but, as others have pointed out, numbers won't tell the story here.

Firstly, BS. It might not be the numbers I've cited, but if what we're talking about is relative production, they will. They won't tell me the warm fuzzies he gave you or what he meant to a clubhouse, but for the point I'm making, they're fully sufficient.



Davy should be in the HOF, IMO. To suggest that Paul Janish is, somehow, even close to DC's abilities is to either denigrate Davy or elevate Janish to the extreme.

Passion can blind, I guess. I never suggested he was close to Davey. That's your overreaction. Concepcion was a top notch defender who was also league average hitter in his prime -- a 101 OPS+ from '73 to 82 -- making him one of the best SS in baseball in an era when few SS hit that well. But outside of his prime, he was a relatively weak hitter. You can'd deny that.

People love to remember to the best of times and forget the worst, but Concepcion also spent his early 20s and from age 35 on, a good 1/3 of his career, being something less than average, but abovereplacement. I never said Janish's career would be close to Concepcion's nor that his overall talent level was similar. I said both were guys who primarily provide value through their defense. And I've suggested that Janish could be decent offensively in his prime -- ~700 OPS. I realize most people don't agree with me on that and I said as much. You can knock my assumptions all you want, but don't knock a logical conclusion based on them.

And that was my point. It was merely that when a bulk of a player's production comes from his defense, he can be a productive player without being a good hitter. It's that if Janish can hit like I believe he can, he can provide value similar to that of what Concepcion provided OUTSIDE of his prime, fulling admitting that that's Janish at his peak.

Remind me to stay off you people's lawns. The Big Red Machine was awesome. But the players who comprised it didn't walk on water (save perhaps for Little Joe in the mid 70s). Sorry if I've offended people for referencing that fact.

remdog
01-09-2011, 03:44 PM
If you want to compare Janish to anyone from the BRM era, Paul is Darrell Cheney, part two.

At the end of the '75 season the Reds traded Cheney to the Braves for Mike (bleepin') Lum. I seriously doubt the Reds could get something that good for Janish on 1/9/11.

Rem

westofyou
01-09-2011, 03:45 PM
BR has Janish most similar player as Gordon Slade (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sladego01.shtml), who was the Reds SS in 1934. he eventually lost his job to Billy Meyers, just like Woody Woodward lost his job to Davey.

That's how I see Janish, as a transitional piece, not an integral piece.

TheNext44
01-09-2011, 03:49 PM
I am big Janish fan, but I have to agree that Janish is not the answer at SS. I don't think he'll be a question in 2011 either, but he's not a long term solution at SS.

mth123
01-09-2011, 03:51 PM
If Janish could put up an OPS+ in the 80s over a full season of PAs he could be a decent starting caliber SS. There is no denying that. That would be a cut above a guy like Jack Wilson and he's a pretty decent starting caliber SS (who makes too much dough). If Janish could do that while he's in his cheap seasons we'd have nothing to complain about really.

The problem I have is that its a huge if and I personally see little chance of it happening. I think a .600 OPS (or less) would be more likely.

Scrap Irony
01-09-2011, 04:23 PM
Janish'd have to have a 90+ OPS+ to be good enough to stop looking for his replacement, IMO.

Ron Madden
01-09-2011, 04:28 PM
I know Paul Janish doesn't quite measure up to Concepcion or Larkin, but IMHO he is the best option the Reds have on the roster to start at SS.

remdog
01-09-2011, 07:59 PM
I know Paul Janish doesn't quite measure up to Concepcion or Larkin, but IMHO he is the best option the Reds have on the roster to start at SS.

I'm sure that you've heard the phrase, "damned by faint praise...." Ron :)

Rem

GADawg
01-09-2011, 09:09 PM
i definitely pre-date Zone Ratings, etc. so I'm not gonna try to argue with any of the stat guys around here about Janish' defensive abilities but I have seen alot of baseball on every level and if I'm a pitcher I'm feeling pretty comfortable with Janish in the middle of that infield. The other thing too is that the little dude has a cannon! Larkin and Davey were both definitely more aesthetically pleasing to watch but Janish can flat get the ball over to first.

TRF
01-09-2011, 09:27 PM
Well, IMO there isn't a better option at SS on the market. Renteria is not an upgrade, but he's nice for depth.

But he's not there for depth. You don't pay Paul Janish's backup 3M. So the question becomes does ER provide roughly 2.5M more in production than Paul Janish?

Do the Reds at 3M have a similar amount of production at SS as Chicago (league minimum) STL (3.3M for Theriot plus league minimum for Tyler Greene) HOU Barmes (arb eligible, last year made 3.3M plus the backups about 400K) and MIL Yuniesky Betancourt (3.3M last year. Did every SS make 3.3M? Plus the backup about 400K)

Looking this list over, I'd say the defensive edge is in Cincinnati or possibly Chicago. There may be no offensive edge in this division but I'd give a nod again to Chicago. And I'm going out on a limb here, but the best overal SS in the Central might be Zack Cozart. Defense, and some pop. the OBP is a bit low, but 16 HR's from the SS would be nice.

traderumor
01-09-2011, 09:29 PM
Firstly, BS. It might not be the numbers I've cited, but if what we're talking about is relative production, they will. They won't tell me the warm fuzzies he gave you or what he meant to a clubhouse, but for the point I'm making, they're fully sufficient.



Passion can blind, I guess. I never suggested he was close to Davey. That's your overreaction. Concepcion was a top notch defender who was also league average hitter in his prime -- a 101 OPS+ from '73 to 82 -- making him one of the best SS in baseball in an era when few SS hit that well. But outside of his prime, he was a relatively weak hitter. You can'd deny that.

People love to remember to the best of times and forget the worst, but Concepcion also spent his early 20s and from age 35 on, a good 1/3 of his career, being something less than average, but abovereplacement. I never said Janish's career would be close to Concepcion's nor that his overall talent level was similar. I said both were guys who primarily provide value through their defense. And I've suggested that Janish could be decent offensively in his prime -- ~700 OPS. I realize most people don't agree with me on that and I said as much. You can knock my assumptions all you want, but don't knock a logical conclusion based on them.

And that was my point. It was merely that when a bulk of a player's production comes from his defense, he can be a productive player without being a good hitter. It's that if Janish can hit like I believe he can, he can provide value similar to that of what Concepcion provided OUTSIDE of his prime, fulling admitting that that's Janish at his peak.

Remind me to stay off you people's lawns. The Big Red Machine was awesome. But the players who comprised it didn't walk on water (save perhaps for Little Joe in the mid 70s). Sorry if I've offended people for referencing that fact.I think that is very unfair, as if the only thing people have argued is religious-like fervor. It is very simple--if Ozzie Smith is a HOFer, then Davey certainly is. That is not romanticism, that has facts, some statistical, some anecdotal, but nevertheless, facts.