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View Full Version : Time to move Bailey?



malcontent
01-07-2011, 06:05 PM
With Willis, Leake and Maloney as 5th starter options, do the Reds move Bailey for a LH-hitting LF or a prospect or two?

brm7675
01-07-2011, 06:30 PM
I have no problem moving Bailey, but right now i don't see his overall value being that high, he would have to be part of a multiple player deal.

DocRed
01-07-2011, 07:10 PM
Bailey has dominating stuff...I wouldn't move him yet. Just my opinion.

757690
01-07-2011, 07:26 PM
Just for the record, Willis is coming into camp as a LOOGY option, not as a starter.

nmculbreth
01-07-2011, 07:29 PM
With Willis, Leake and Maloney as 5th starter options, do the Reds move Bailey for a LH-hitting LF or a prospect or two?

I wouldn't move him unless I got an incredible offer. With Chapman being put in the pen for the 2011 season, the Reds aren't quite as deep at SP as many people assumed and I think Bailey is poised for a breakout season.

malcontent
01-07-2011, 07:31 PM
Just for the record, Willis is coming into camp as a LOOGY option, not as a starter.
That's what we've been led to believe.

But what if Dontrelle continues to wow Price?

brm7675
01-07-2011, 07:38 PM
That's what we've been led to believe.

But what if Dontrelle continues to wow Price?

Wow with what? He has nothing left to wow with. Price unlike our manager seems to have a better understanding of talent and aging talent. Willis won't even be on the ML roster when it breaks camp...:thumbup:

brm7675
01-07-2011, 07:39 PM
I wouldn't move him unless I got an incredible offer. With Chapman being put in the pen for the 2011 season, the Reds aren't quite as deep at SP as many people assumed and I think Bailey is poised for a breakout season.

i would move him in a heartbeat for the right return. Bailey is all hype and no go.

Vottomatic
01-08-2011, 05:00 AM
Bob and Walt don't think that way. They won't trade anybody because they don't want to increase payroll, and frankly they aren't interested in winning it all. They're only interested in selling tickets and making a profit. They are Mike Brown-lite.

Votto will be gone in 3 years. And this team will only tease us the next 2 or 3 years. They will never win it all because ownership won't go for it all.

Mark it down.

Cant Touch This
01-08-2011, 10:23 AM
i would move him in a heartbeat for the right return. Bailey is all hype and no go.

He's thrown 304 major league innings. It's too early to tell if he's all hype and no go. If you don't believe me, go look at the first 304 innings of any ten top-of-rotation pitchers (current or former) and tell me how many of them were achieving top-of-rotation stats.

In the year 2000, a 23-year old right hander out of Denver was entering into his second full season with Toronto. He had thrown 165 major league innings to date. Lots of hype - but the results were only so-so. In the year 2000, he started 13 games and posted an ERA of 10.64. He gave up 107 hits and 42 walks in 67 innings while striking out only 44 hitters. That's a WHIP of 2.2, my friends and a hits/9 of almost 15!

At the end of 2000, his MLB service had totalled 236 innings pitched. His career ERA to that point was 5.58 and WHIP was 1.67.

Today, Roy Halladay is the ace of the Philadelphia staff and threw a no hitter against the Reds in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS.

(By contrast, Bailey's career ERA is 5.09 and WHIP is 1.52. His numbers have improved each of the last three seasons, showing a positive trend.

Fans can be impatient, and I understand that. Especially fans who haven't seen winning baseball in a long time. But if Toronto had given into the "all hype, no go" theory, they would have traded a 7-time All Star who would eventually win two Cy Young Awards (one with Philly last year).

Are you ready to make the trade?

wlf WV
01-08-2011, 10:49 AM
This organization is able to sustain success as is.I believe we will add needs,when the right trade is available,by dealing from strength,not desperation.I think this is the position of the front office,and it is something other teams are only now beginning to realize.

redsfanmia
01-08-2011, 12:40 PM
Bob and Walt don't think that way. They won't trade anybody because they don't want to increase payroll, and frankly they aren't interested in winning it all. They're only interested in selling tickets and making a profit. They are Mike Brown-lite.

Votto will be gone in 3 years. And this team will only tease us the next 2 or 3 years. They will never win it all because ownership won't go for it all.

Mark it down.

Not sure if I believe everything you say, I think if the fans come then Big Bob will increase payroll. I don't think Votto will last 3 years, I think the time to trade him is at the deadline this season or in the off season after this year. I don't think Votto is interested in anything long term with the Reds and he should be dealt while his value is highest.

mroby85
01-08-2011, 01:21 PM
Not sure if I believe everything you say, I think if the fans come then Big Bob will increase payroll. I don't think Votto will last 3 years, I think the time to trade him is at the deadline this season or in the off season after this year. I don't think Votto is interested in anything long term with the Reds and he should be dealt while his value is highest.

Just reading this made me about half sick. Absolute joke.

PeteRoseBelongs
01-08-2011, 03:10 PM
uggghhhh, If you look at it Votto is just doing what the players union wants done. He won't give a break because the players union isn't about to see a rising star like Votto give one. Joey is not a bad dude, and while I wouldn't know him from a hole in the wall if I ever met him, I think he will be more loyal than most. The organization has stood beside him when he was having problems adjusting and they stood by him when he was going through problems. Joey strikes me as being one that doesn't forget those things. At the end of the day its a business. Joey deserves the money.

and since this thread was about Homer. No way in hell you deal him right now. Bronson Arroyo maybe but Homer no. Homer will never command huge money, too inconsistant but he is a good young pitcher. No way you give up on him.

gedred69
01-08-2011, 05:25 PM
He's thrown 304 major league innings. It's too early to tell if he's all hype and no go. If you don't believe me, go look at the first 304 innings of any ten top-of-rotation pitchers (current or former) and tell me how many of them were achieving top-of-rotation stats.

In the year 2000, a 23-year old right hander out of Denver was entering into his second full season with Toronto. He had thrown 165 major league innings to date. Lots of hype - but the results were only so-so. In the year 2000, he started 13 games and posted an ERA of 10.64. He gave up 107 hits and 42 walks in 67 innings while striking out only 44 hitters. That's a WHIP of 2.2, my friends and a hits/9 of almost 15!

At the end of 2000, his MLB service had totalled 236 innings pitched. His career ERA to that point was 5.58 and WHIP was 1.67.

Today, Roy Halladay is the ace of the Philadelphia staff and threw a no hitter against the Reds in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS.

(By contrast, Bailey's career ERA is 5.09 and WHIP is 1.52. His numbers have improved each of the last three seasons, showing a positive trend.

Fans can be impatient, and I understand that. Especially fans who haven't seen winning baseball in a long time. But if Toronto had given into the "all hype, no go" theory, they would have traded a 7-time All Star who would eventually win two Cy Young Awards (one with Philly last year).

Are you ready to make the trade?

This is one of the most realistic posts I have seen on this site in a long time. A+.

cbowen2112
01-08-2011, 05:28 PM
This is one of the most realistic posts I have seen on this site in a long time. A+.

+ 1....I like to keep things in perspective too.

Cant Touch This
01-08-2011, 07:34 PM
+ 1....I like to keep things in perspective too.

Thanks.

Like I said, I understand the desire to win now. I understand the frustration when a 5-star prospect comes into the league and takes his licks. Some of them don't ever mature into what the experts said they would (see: Ryan Wagner).

It's easy for fans to jump on a guy who didn't handle himself and say the right things to the press at age 21. (and then suddenly you remember the things you did and said at age 21 and it all starts to seem familiar...)

It's easy to see a young highly-touted pitcher lose his cool on the mound at age 22 or 23, and think - what have we gotten ourselves into? What was all the hype?

What's not easy is to remain patient and realize that we may still be one or two full seasons before pitchers like Bailey hit their career stride. The direction his numbers are trending is encouraging, so I'm inclined to ride that wave for awhile.

Finally, what's impossible is to look into the crystal ball and know for sure that Homer Bailey is going to be a bust, average, or top-quality pitcher for the bulk of his major league career. There is no such thing as a sure thing on either end of the spectrum. So to label someone a bust at this stage of his career is nothing more than conjecture. Just as it is to label him an eventual top-of-rotation starter. Nobody knows. Not you, not me, not Walt, not Bob. And not even Homer.

So the question becomes one of a gamble. Do you risk giving up a potential TOR guy for an average outfielder? That's what the Mets did when they traded Nolan Ryan to the Angels for Jim Fregosi. Not saying that the gamble would turn out that way, because it all comes back to that crystal ball. Nobody knows.

Vottomatic
01-09-2011, 10:19 AM
My problem is that Reds management seems to be relying SOLELY on the core group of young studs to improve even more next year. I think they will improve also, BUT........even if they improve we still have weaknesses and management fails to address them.

It's really frustrating.

mlh1981
01-09-2011, 10:34 AM
We will regret the day we trade Homer Bailey, in my opinion.

You don't let young power arms get away.

As an organization, we can never have enough pitching. Just when you think you have enough depth, is when that depth gets seriously tested,

TheBigLebowski
01-09-2011, 10:51 AM
He's thrown 304 major league innings. It's too early to tell if he's all hype and no go. If you don't believe me, go look at the first 304 innings of any ten top-of-rotation pitchers (current or former) and tell me how many of them were achieving top-of-rotation stats.

In the year 2000, a 23-year old right hander out of Denver was entering into his second full season with Toronto. He had thrown 165 major league innings to date. Lots of hype - but the results were only so-so. In the year 2000, he started 13 games and posted an ERA of 10.64. He gave up 107 hits and 42 walks in 67 innings while striking out only 44 hitters. That's a WHIP of 2.2, my friends and a hits/9 of almost 15!

At the end of 2000, his MLB service had totalled 236 innings pitched. His career ERA to that point was 5.58 and WHIP was 1.67.

Today, Roy Halladay is the ace of the Philadelphia staff and threw a no hitter against the Reds in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS.

(By contrast, Bailey's career ERA is 5.09 and WHIP is 1.52. His numbers have improved each of the last three seasons, showing a positive trend.

Fans can be impatient, and I understand that. Especially fans who haven't seen winning baseball in a long time. But if Toronto had given into the "all hype, no go" theory, they would have traded a 7-time All Star who would eventually win two Cy Young Awards (one with Philly last year).

Are you ready to make the trade?

Quality internet posting. I agree 110%.

You want to move Bailey? Sell high. I would hate to see some of your portfolios.

Oxblood
01-09-2011, 03:50 PM
I'd move Cueto & Volquez before Homer. Equal ability but they would have a better return.

brm7675
01-09-2011, 04:07 PM
My problem is that Reds management seems to be relying SOLELY on the core group of young studs to improve even more next year. I think they will improve also, BUT........even if they improve we still have weaknesses and management fails to address them.

It's really frustrating.

How can they address these "weaknessess" if there is no talent out there to get?

PeteRoseBelongs
01-09-2011, 09:54 PM
Quality internet posting. I agree 110%.

You want to move Bailey? Sell high. I would hate to see some of your portfolios.


I totally agree. great post.

Hondo
01-10-2011, 05:22 PM
How can they address these "weaknessess" if there is no talent out there to get?

There are and have been players available, the FO and/or GM did nothing... Or if they tried made it very difficult...

IMO you don't go to the winter meeting to re sign Miguel Cairo to a 2 year deal. What a joke.

I am saying Cairo could have been resigned before or after that week. The fact that they wasted any energy on it during that week is contemptible.

Hey Meat
01-11-2011, 01:47 PM
Just for the record, Willis is coming into camp as a LOOGY option, not as a starter.

Thanks, That post about him as a 5th starter option was kind of scary for me.

R_Webb18
01-12-2011, 12:15 AM
Cueto

no just stop

smixsell
01-12-2011, 12:31 AM
With Willis, Leake and Maloney as 5th starter options, do the Reds move Bailey for a LH-hitting LF or a prospect or two?

NO!

Oxblood
01-12-2011, 12:31 PM
no just stop

Vas es de problemo?

R_Webb18
01-13-2011, 08:23 PM
Vas es de problemo?

english?

brm7675
01-13-2011, 08:40 PM
There are and have been players available, the FO and/or GM did nothing... Or if they tried made it very difficult...

IMO you don't go to the winter meeting to re sign Miguel Cairo to a 2 year deal. What a joke.

I am saying Cairo could have been resigned before or after that week. The fact that they wasted any energy on it during that week is contemptible.

Were you AT the winter meetings? You are assuming that "since" no 'major' move was made, that the Reds did nothing. I find that hard to believe. I think the obvious thing tha happen was that Walt and company went down there with a plan to do their best to strengthen our weak spots for the right price or right deal and at those meetings neither of that occured.

What players have been or are available that you speak of would have helped improve our "weak" areas?

Hondo
01-13-2011, 09:53 PM
Were you AT the winter meetings? You are assuming that "since" no 'major' move was made, that the Reds did nothing. I find that hard to believe. I think the obvious thing tha happen was that Walt and company went down there with a plan to do their best to strengthen our weak spots for the right price or right deal and at those meetings neither of that occured.

What players have been or are available that you speak of would have helped improve our "weak" areas?

So far not been traded:

Grady Sizemore, Jose Reyes, Chone Figgins, Travis Snider

Benn traded already:

Zach Greinke, Josh Willingham, Jason Bartlett

Free Agents:

Johnny Damon (Could probably be had for the combided Salaries of Lewis & Renteria)



Now go ahead and tell me why the Reds could never trade for any of the players, or why the team wouldn't do the deal

Or why Johnny Damon is too old...

This team did minor changes and blew what money it did have.

Hernadez 3 Million
Cairo 1 Million
Renteria 2.1 Million + 900K in Bonus
Lewis 900K

7 Million Could have went towards 1 piece that would have truley made an Impact... Maybe added another 4-5 Million but still that would have been in the teams budget to stretch.

malcontent
01-14-2011, 11:48 AM
Whole lotta love for Homer in this thread. At least a lot more than I was expecting. Hope y'all are right.

Me...I hear the D-Train a comin'.

Quatitos
01-14-2011, 12:54 PM
This team did minor changes and blew what money it did have.

Hernadez 3 Million
Cairo 1 Million
Renteria 2.1 Million + 900K in Bonus
Lewis 900K

7 Million Could have went towards 1 piece that would have truley made an Impact... Maybe added another 4-5 Million but still that would have been in the teams budget to stretch.

Who would you replace those 4 players with? And once again since you ignore the fact players would have to be signed for those positions, you would only save ~$6million at most and probably less because Renteria probably won't get every single one of his performance bonuses.

According to fangraphs, for 2010, each point of WAR was worth about $4 million. Ramon Hernandex was worth 2.6 WAR last season, I wouldn't predict him to perform that well again, but I would believe his floor is around 1.5.
Cairo was worth .9 wins and I would say has a floor of .5 WAR. Renteria was injured a lot last season and still put up 1.4 WAR and I would say his floor is 1 WAR. Fred Lewis put up .9 WAR last season and I would probably say that is his floor is 1 WAR if he is used in a strict platoon like has been suggested.

Thats 4 WAR (conservatively estimated in my opinion, if you disagree feel free to say what you think they will be worth in terms of WAR) for a max salary of $8 million spent on them. That would be $2 million spent per WAR. Basically Walt paid half market price for these guys, and overall these signings are a great value for the team to shore up the holes that the reds had.

Lets look at one of the trades you wanted the reds to make. Probably the best value trade you argued for was the Brewers picking up Zach Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt for $17 million. Greinke was worth 5.2 WAR last season and I would say his ceiling is probably 6. They also added Yuniesky Betancourt who was worth .6 WAR last season and I would predict he is worth 0 WAR next season. So that is 6 WAR for $17 million, or $2.83 million per WAR. That also doesn't take into effect the 1.9 WAR that the brewers traded away which was making the league minimum, or $1.1875 million per WAR.


Also, if you assume we trade for Greinke, his WAR addition to the team would be decreased by the fifth starter he is kicking out of the rotation. The candidates to be replaced would be Mike Leake (1.1 WAR), Homer Bailey (1.9), Travis Wood(2.2), and Edinson Volquez(0.9).

DirtyBaker
01-15-2011, 02:22 PM
Also, if you assume we trade for Greinke, his WAR addition to the team would be decreased by the fifth starter he is kicking out of the rotation. The candidates to be replaced would be Mike Leake (1.1 WAR), Homer Bailey (1.9), Travis Wood(2.2), and Edinson Volquez(0.9).

Haven't thought about a Greinke acquisition like that. However, wouldn't you figure one of those guys listed would be traded for similar guys we landed in FA? I think that it would be a move that would pay most of the dividends in the playoffs, assuming Reds get there.

Kingspoint
01-16-2011, 04:46 PM
How many ways can I say, "NO!"?

Quatitos
01-16-2011, 05:02 PM
How many ways can I say, "NO!"?

A lot! (http://www.wolfestone.co.uk/no.php)