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View Full Version : Which two starters would you leave out of the rotation?



Will M
01-08-2011, 09:45 AM
Pick which two starting pitchers YOU would leave out of the 2011 rotation. Then let us know why & what you would do with them. AAA? Bullpen? Trade? If you want to trade a pitcher state a reasonable trade or two. Just to clarify: its not what you think the Reds will do. Its what YOU would do if you ran the team.

Will M
01-08-2011, 09:48 AM
My choices:
1) Arroyo is in. Fairly straightforward.
2) Wood is in. The team controls him for six more years. He is a lefty. He can give us 200 innings in 2011. He had a great rookie season.
3) Leake is in. I suspect most will pick to send Leake to AAA. I would keep him in Cincinnati. I think he got beat up late in Cincinnati because of arm fatigue. The team shut him down which was a good move. Now lets build his arm up a bit. So why not do that in AAA? I think Leake isn't going to learn much in AAA. I think he is a major league pitcher & needs to learn here in the bigs. He has a fantastic mentor in Bronson who has a similar style. The two are close. Bronson took Mike on vacation with him this offseason.
4) Cueto is in. IMO he is our 2nd best pitcher plus he still has some upside.
5) The last spot goes to Homer. why Homer & not Volquez? The Reds control Homer for 4 more years & Volquez (and Cueto and Arroyo) only for three more. Its a bit looking ahead. The team is not bursting with pitching in the minors. I wouldn't want to have 3 starters in the rotation that all leave at the same time. I know its three years away but a smaller market team like the Reds needs to plan ahead.
Both Homer & Volquez are a bit enigmatic. Both have TOR potential but haven't gotten there. I think Homer has more chance to get there than Volquez. Thats just my opinion.

6) Volquez is traded for a outfielder (if possible). David Murphy seems an odd man out in Texas with Cruz in RF, Hamilton in CF & Young at DH. He'd be a target. I'm not sure I'd trade Volquez stright up for him due to Volquez's potential. I'd try to get Murphy for less (say Ondrusek). Maybe we trade Volquez, Gomes & prospects/bullpen arms for Cruz. The Rangers could move Hamilton to RF & use Murphy/Gomes in LF. They would get a potential TOR starter plus other players they might need. The Reds sure have a lot of guys stacking up in AAA. Nick Swisher seems to be a reasonable target in a Volquez trade (although the money wouldn't work). An even better move is to trade Cordero for Swisher/Fukodome/expensive outfielder & move Volquez to the bullpen. We would truly have a 'nasty boys II' pen if Walt could pull that off.
7) Chapman goes to the pen in 2011. Its been discussed a lot here. Three reasons stand out. One is that we have seven guys for five spots. Two is that I don't want two innings challenged guys in the rotation. Three is that we know he can be a light out reliever yet we don't know how effective a starter he can be.

kbrake
01-08-2011, 10:17 AM
If they're confident Willis can be very solid arm out of the bullpen I'd send Chapman to AAA to work as a starter.

The last spot I'd have Bailey and Leake compete for it. If Bailey wins Leake goes to AAA if Leake wins Bailey goes to the bullpen.

Redsfan320
01-08-2011, 10:37 AM
Champan, he's in the Reds pen.

Volquez, I think his command keeps him out of the top 5. He starts in AAA and keeps working on it, and if Homer, Leake, etc. falters, he comes up.

320

reds1869
01-08-2011, 10:44 AM
I would put Chapman and Bailey in the pen for 2011. It allows both to throw full effort 100% of the time and use their best asset--nasty stuff--to the greatest advantage. Either one can be moved back into the rotation if needed.

camisadelgolf
01-08-2011, 10:45 AM
Leake is the only one I'm sure of, and that's just because I think he has some things he could learn in AAA. The other guy would become trade bait. I don't want to see Volquez convert to relief just yet. The same goes for Chapman, but if he can prepare to become a starter while in the bullpen, so be it. Cueto's salary relief could come in handy, and who knows how much longer he'll be effective anyway? If someone's willing to pay a good price for Bailey, I'd be willing to flip him in a deal for an impact bat in left field. I think Wood may be overrated on RZ, and it wouldn't bother me as much as others to see him go.

Griffey012
01-08-2011, 10:57 AM
Chapman has already shown value in another role, so let him stay in the pen for now. Leake has not shown enough to warrant a big league spot at this point in time. It would be between Leake and Homer for the last spot, but Homer showed a lot towards the end of last year, whereas Leake was a good story, but his number really were nothing special.

Don't get me wrong, Leake will be a very, very good MLB pitcher.

muddie
01-08-2011, 10:59 AM
If they're confident Willis can be very solid arm out of the bullpen I'd send Chapman to AAA to work as a starter.

The last spot I'd have Bailey and Leake compete for it. If Bailey wins Leake goes to AAA if Leake wins Bailey goes to the bullpen.

My expecatations for Willis are zero. Detroit gave this guy every chance to rediscover himself and he never could get it together. Got no problem with a minor league contract and am pulling for the former Mudcat but I believe he is done.

camisadelgolf
01-08-2011, 11:06 AM
I'm going to call out redsmetz as the jerk who didn't follow directions in the voting. I DEMAND TO KNOW YOUR OTHER OMISSION!

kpresidente
01-08-2011, 11:06 AM
There was some talk about a six-man rotation in Boston last year. I'd try that, although I also wouldn't have brought Arroyo back in the first place, or I would have tried to move somebody if I did. I just can't figure out why you'd keep six legit starters with holes elsewhere and solid depth waiting in Louisville.

RANDY IN INDY
01-08-2011, 11:06 AM
I would leave Chapman out of the rotation and in the bullpen. I think his future is as a closer, and he may get that opportunity this season. The other will depend a lot on Spring Training and what transpires there. There are often circumstances that make these decisions for you. Injury, trades, effectiveness, etc. I think that Travis Wood needs to be in the rotation as he is a lefty and based on his effectiveness last season. If there are no injuries/trades, I think the final spot will boil down to Leake and Bailey. The Reds definitely are in a good position with an abundance of good starting pitching

dougdirt
01-08-2011, 12:25 PM
Simple, the two who aren't quite ready for a full MLB workload. Chapman and Leake.

hebroncougar
01-08-2011, 12:45 PM
I took out Bailey and Chapman. I love swing and miss guys, and power arms for the pen. I could see Volquez going to the pen after about 20 starts, and moving Bailey in, to save Volquez's arm since he's on the mend.

Scrap Irony
01-08-2011, 12:58 PM
Simple, the two who aren't quite ready for a full MLB workload. Chapman and Leake.

This. Though I'd amend it to Leake and Chapman while looking to deal at least one starter (and a couple prospects)-- I'd prefer Leake, though, really, anyone aside from Chapman would be okay, depending on return-- looking for a cleanup LFer with a few years left on a small-ish contract.

kaldaniels
01-08-2011, 01:49 PM
I'm not ready to make my decision on this. But I bet EV makes it in the rotation....he was the Game 1 starter....the Reds think highly of him for sure.

RED VAN HOT
01-08-2011, 01:51 PM
I voted for only one also, Chapman. Nor would I put him in the pen. If he is going to be a starter eventually, then let him go to AAA and work on command of his secondary pitches. The major league pen is deep enough.

Obviously, the one of the six remaining that does not start the season in the starting five will be determined by health, performance in the spring, suitability for the pen, and options remaining. If I had to name someone today, I think Leake is most likely to be left out. He has options, doesn't fit into the pen well, and faded during the second half of the season. He would seem to benefit most by a demotion.

I see no need to trade anyone. Experience indicates that the Reds will need them all plus Maloney and LeCure before its over.

PuffyPig
01-08-2011, 02:05 PM
This is what spring training is for.

This poll is a little ahead of its time, and therefore a gigantic waste of time.

camisadelgolf
01-08-2011, 02:39 PM
This is what spring training is for.

This poll is a little ahead of its time, and therefore a gigantic waste of time.
Until this point, I'd say that the poll was actually doing a pretty good job of producing discussion. :p:

PuffyPig
01-08-2011, 04:20 PM
Until this point, I'd say that the poll was actually doing a pretty good job of producing discussion. :p:


You can produce dicussion all you want about who everyone might think will win a spot, but for the most part, what happens in spring training will be the main factor.

You don't need a poll to produce discussion. Discussing posters opinion of what might happen is never a waste of time. The poll is the waste. The question is "what two starters would you leave out of the rotation". Why answer a question in which the information to answer isn't yet available? I'm not sure how anyone could honestly answer anything other than "I don't know yet".

Ron Madden
01-08-2011, 04:45 PM
Simple, the two who aren't quite ready for a full MLB workload. Chapman and Leake.

Yep. I'd have them both starting games in AAA to build up their IP.

camisadelgolf
01-08-2011, 04:50 PM
You can produce dicussion all you want about who everyone might think will win a spot, but for the most part, what happens in spring training will be the main factor.

You don't need a poll to produce discussion. Discussing posters opinion of what might happen is never a waste of time. The poll is the waste. The question is "what two starters would you leave out of the rotation". Why answer a question in which the information to answer isn't yet available? I'm not sure how anyone could honestly answer anything other than "I don't know yet".
The poll question asks which pitchers you would leave out of the rotation. A lot can happen by then, and I'm sure nearly all of our answers will change over the course of the next couple months, but in the meantime, if I were the GM and forced to make a decision today, I would put Chapman in the bullpen and option Leake. The discussion is about what we would do, and I don't see it as a waste of time, personally. In my eyes, a waste of time is when you criticize something without posing solutions to improve it.

Reds1
01-08-2011, 04:53 PM
I answered the pole with the info I had, but I think a lot depends on the offseason work and spring training. Dusty goes with the hot hand so lets see if Chapman can hold runners on and still keep in the strike zone. Let's see if Leake just had fatique, etc. etc.

Ghosts of 1990
01-08-2011, 05:10 PM
Leake and Chapman

Caveat Emperor
01-08-2011, 06:00 PM
Leake and Cueto.

In a perfect world, I'd have Leake at AAA refining his skills and I'd move Cueto for an impact LF or SS bat.

Captain Hook
01-08-2011, 06:13 PM
I think it's Chapman and Leake to AAA.

To those that could see the team actually keeping Volquez out of the rotation.What is it that you feel that has changed between game one of the NLDS, when the brain trust decided Edison would be the starter when they could've chose anyone, and now.Even if you right, what does the team do with EV?

Mario-Rijo
01-08-2011, 06:17 PM
Bailey and Chapman. Chapman logging innings in Louisville and Bailey in Texas (with other farmhands) making up for Nelson Cruz's departure.

Will M
01-08-2011, 07:06 PM
Leake and Cueto.

In a perfect world, I'd have Leake at AAA refining his skills and I'd move Cueto for an impact LF or SS bat.


Bailey and Chapman. Chapman logging innings in Louisville and Bailey in Texas (with other farmhands) making up for Nelson Cruz's departure.

It seems to me that a deal involving a Reds pitcher & a Ranger's outfielder makes sense for both teams. I suspect Texas would be more interested in Cueto than Bailey, Leake or Volquez (all have question marks). Would Cueto plus Gomes net Nelson Cruz? If so thats a deal the Reds should make. The team plugs a major hole in left field & can hopefully fill Cueto's shoes from within. Even if Chapman went to the bullpen we would still have Arroyo, Wood, Bailey, Volquez & Leake in the rotation.

mth123
01-08-2011, 07:11 PM
Simple, the two who aren't quite ready for a full MLB workload. Chapman and Leake.

Exactly right. The Reds don't really have excess starters at this point unless you count Matt Maloney or Sam Lecure.

GADawg
01-09-2011, 08:40 AM
Simple, the two who aren't quite ready for a full MLB workload. Chapman and Leake.

i'm with you here....Chapman in the pen(where we can anticipate his appearance EVERY night) and Leake to AAA where they can hopefully bring him along slowly and possibly have him peak late in the season when the big club will need him most.

Alot of people are down on Volquez but I don't think we're cutting him enough slack here considering he just got back(and early)from the surgery. That said I'll admit if I had to trade one of these guys it'd be him but mostly due to fiscal considerations

RANDY IN INDY
01-09-2011, 09:09 AM
Exactly right. The Reds don't really have excess starters at this point unless you count Matt Maloney or Sam Lecure.

I wouldn't call it "excess," but should one, even two starters go down, they are in a much better position to fill that void from within with quality and a little experience than most teams.

mth123
01-09-2011, 09:22 AM
I wouldn't call it "excess," but should one, even two starters go down, they are in a much better position to fill that void from within with quality and a little experience than most teams.

Agreed, But with two of the rotation guys not really ready for the workload, two others coming off major arm injuries and another with just 100 major league innings, they really shouldn't be trading any away unless they bring somebody else in.

TheNext44
01-09-2011, 10:33 AM
Simple, the two who aren't quite ready for a full MLB workload. Chapman and Leake.

First, I would argue that Bailey is Reds starter least ready for a full workload, but that has nothing to do with his physical condition. lol

Second, Leake clearly wasn't ready for a MLB workload last season, but I am sure glad that that logic wasn't used to keep him out of the rotation.

Why not let them build up their arm strength in the majors? If they have the ability to succeed at the MLB level, why waste their innings in Louisville. If they are only going to pitch, let's say 150 innings, why shouldn't those be in the majors, then shut them down just like they shut down Leake last season?

I say start the season with the best five starting pitchers starting in the majors. If one or two of them have to be shut down later in the season due to an innings limit, then just use the guys who didn't win a spot.

kpresidente
01-09-2011, 11:00 AM
Exactly right. The Reds don't really have excess starters at this point unless you count Matt Maloney or Sam Lecure.

Yeah, but I do count them. Both guys have significant stints and have done well enough. They're not really big question marks at this point. Obviously, they don't have the upside that you think of from Bailey, Wood, Volquez, etc, but for this year at least, but I could easily see either of them being just as effective as those guys, and a lot of playoff caliber teams would be totally satisfied with the two of them battling for a 5th spot in the rotation.

mth123
01-09-2011, 02:25 PM
Yeah, but I do count them. Both guys have significant stints and have done well enough. They're not really big question marks at this point. Obviously, they don't have the upside that you think of from Bailey, Wood, Volquez, etc, but for this year at least, but I could easily see either of them being just as effective as those guys, and a lot of playoff caliber teams would be totally satisfied with the two of them battling for a 5th spot in the rotation.

Maybe if they had four established guys in the other spots, but the Reds have a guy coming off of TJ without much success so far, a guy who missed three months with shoulder issues, a guy with 100 major league innings and two kids who aren't ready for the workload. Contenders usually have guys with that profile competing for the 5th spot as well. The Reds need to get three starters from that group and they really need at least one to assert himself as a TOR arm.

This group has a lot of upside and more promise of any group of young home grown starters since Gary Nolan, Don Gullett, Wayne Simpson and Milt Wilcox were coming along, but I think there is a general sense of denial on here concerning the ton of uncertainty involved. I'm sure some of these guys will pass with flying colors, but some will disappoint and not work out as well. If the Reds were to deal one, IMO it should be the guy who they think they can count on least for 2011. IMO that is Mike Leake, but it would have to involve getting an impact guy in return and not just a guy to fill a hole.

mth123
01-09-2011, 02:32 PM
First, I would argue that Bailey is Reds starter least ready for a full workload, but that has nothing to do with his physical condition. lol

Second, Leake clearly wasn't ready for a MLB workload last season, but I am sure glad that that logic wasn't used to keep him out of the rotation.

Why not let them build up their arm strength in the majors? If they have the ability to succeed at the MLB level, why waste their innings in Louisville. If they are only going to pitch, let's say 150 innings, why shouldn't those be in the majors, then shut them down just like they shut down Leake last season?

I say start the season with the best five starting pitchers starting in the majors. If one or two of them have to be shut down later in the season due to an innings limit, then just use the guys who didn't win a spot.

Because in the majors you can't really control the workload so well w/o completely burning out the pen or over-taxing the starter the day before or the day after. If the Reds had a bunch of Arroyo's in the other spots it would be easier, but young and/or rehabbing guys like Cueto, Bailey, Wood and Volquez need to be protected as well.

IMO, too many kids in the rotation ends up leading to too many kids on the DL (many times with their careers down the drain as well).

Jpup
01-09-2011, 03:26 PM
I can't decide. I like them all.

Will M
01-09-2011, 04:54 PM
I have a question for those who want to 'hoard' all seven of the Reds starters.
Lets say Leake goes to AAA & Chapman goes to AAA or the pen. That gives us a rotation of Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, Volquez & Bailey. We have Leake and Chapman in reserve if an injury hits. And we have Lecure & Maloney as emergency starters. Sound pretty awesome to me. Until I look out in left field.
So my question is something like this: don't you think the team would be better taking some risk by dealing a starter but by doing so improve the major league team by adding a real everyday left fielder? Assuming it could be done would this be a better plan than hoarding all seven guys & going with Gomes, Heisey & Podsednik/Lewis/etc in left field?

mth123
01-09-2011, 06:09 PM
I have a question for those who want to 'hoard' all seven of the Reds starters.
Lets say Leake goes to AAA & Chapman goes to AAA or the pen. That gives us a rotation of Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, Volquez & Bailey. We have Leake and Chapman in reserve if an injury hits. And we have Lecure & Maloney as emergency starters. Sound pretty awesome to me. Until I look out in left field.
So my question is something like this: don't you think the team would be better taking some risk by dealing a starter but by doing so improve the major league team by adding a real everyday left fielder? Assuming it could be done would this be a better plan than hoarding all seven guys & going with Gomes, Heisey & Podsednik/Lewis/etc in left field?

I think the Reds could acquire an adequate LF option w/o dealing one of the top 7 arms. If you want to package Maloney with some other kids fine.

Now if your talking about somebody like Justin Upton, then I'd be all for including Leake as a part of the deal, but only for somebody who can have an impact for multiple seasons.

I'd guess that somebody from the top 5 out of spring training will spend a lot of time being uavailable due to injury or ineffectiveness. Just last season Harang, Bailey, Volquez and Leake all spent multiple months being unavailable.

TRF
01-09-2011, 06:40 PM
I chose Leake and Wood for different reasons. My #4-5 starter is Chapman. If he falters in such a way as to need to be sent to AAA, Wood can step in. But I want to see a hammer in the rotation. Volquez COULD be a hammer, he has been one in the past. But I like the odds with two starters that can throw 97+

As for Leake, I just don't see it. No way do i attribute his dismal June to fatigue. The league figured him out pretty quick. I see his upside as a #4, maybe a #3 starter. Look at the facts so far. He doesn't throw hard, doesn't miss bats and is defense dependent to a greater extent because of his lack of stuff. I think Leake will be in AAA in 2011, and I don't think he'll have significantly better numbers than Matt Maloney there.

a 1-5 of Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey and Chapman can rush out of the gate with Wood, Leake and Maloney as depth. LeCure needs to start his career as the long man in the pen this season.

Will M
01-09-2011, 06:42 PM
I think the Reds could acquire an adequate LF option w/o dealing one of the top 7 arms. If you want to package Maloney with some other kids fine.

Now if your talking about somebody like Justin Upton, then I'd be all for including Leake as a part of the deal, but only for somebody who can have an impact for multiple seasons.

I'd guess that somebody from the top 5 out of spring training will spend a lot of time being uavailable due to injury or ineffectiveness. Just last season Harang, Bailey, Volquez and Leake all spent multiple months being unavailable.

fair enough.

i too wouldn't deal one of the starters for some generic left handed bat. i've mentioned David Murphy as a target. i'd trade a reliever for him but not a starter. should Texas want one of our starters it would have to be for Cruz.
i'd deal Leake as part of a deal for Justin Upton not for Matt Joyce.

if Walt can't get a real honest to goodness left fielder for one of the starters then i am all for holding onto all of them and starting the season.

reds44
01-09-2011, 09:03 PM
I would put Chapman and Bailey in the pen for 2011. It allows both to throw full effort 100% of the time and use their best asset--nasty stuff--to the greatest advantage. Either one can be moved back into the rotation if needed.
Agreed.

PuffyPig
01-09-2011, 09:10 PM
Maybe if they had four established guys in the other spots, but the Reds have a guy coming off of TJ without much success so far, a guy who missed three months with shoulder issues, a guy with 100 major league innings and two kids who aren't ready for the workload. Contenders usually have guys with that profile competing for the 5th spot as well. The Reds need to get three starters from that group and they really need at least one to assert himself as a TOR arm.

.

Becuase that group, with one years less experience, certainly couldn't bring a division winner to the team, could they?

I'd suggest that the starting group going into 2011 looks better than the starting group who ended the season winning the division.

Scrap Irony
01-09-2011, 09:17 PM
I'd suggest that the starting group going into 2011 looks better than the starting group who ended the season winning the division.

Definitely agree with this. Replacing Harang with any of the seven possible starters would be an improvement over 20 starts. Volquez should be improved a year after TJ surgery.

Only Arroyo is likely to go backward.

kpresidente
01-09-2011, 10:07 PM
Maybe if they had four established guys in the other spots, but the Reds have a guy coming off of TJ without much success so far, a guy who missed three months with shoulder issues, a guy with 100 major league innings and two kids who aren't ready for the workload. Contenders usually have guys with that profile competing for the 5th spot as well. The Reds need to get three starters from that group and they really need at least one to assert himself as a TOR arm.

This group has a lot of upside and more promise of any group of young home grown starters since Gary Nolan, Don Gullett, Wayne Simpson and Milt Wilcox were coming along, but I think there is a general sense of denial on here concerning the ton of uncertainty involved. I'm sure some of these guys will pass with flying colors, but some will disappoint and not work out as well. If the Reds were to deal one, IMO it should be the guy who they think they can count on least for 2011. IMO that is Mike Leake, but it would have to involve getting an impact guy in return and not just a guy to fill a hole.

It's not denial, I just think that everything is going to have to go right for the Reds to improve on last season (since everything went right last season), so I just ignore anything except a reasonable best-case scenario. If we get hit by an injury bug, or if certain players regress, we're not going to compete with the better teams anyway, so why worry about it?

From that reasonable best-case scenario perspective, the gaping hole in LF becomes especially problematic. Better to solve this in a strong way than limp around like we did for a number of years with CF. At best we've got essentially a replacement level player out there, and plenty of depth and talent in the rotation. It's only natural then to move players from that position of strength to a position of weakness. So I would've looked to move one of the starters, or better yet, let Arroyo walk and spend his salary on the big bat. Uncertainty be damned, we don't have enough talent or resources to hedge our bets.

Obviously, WJ doesn't see it that way, but I think he may be overrating the team or underrating the competition.

PuffyPig
01-09-2011, 10:29 PM
It's not denial, I just think that everything is going to have to go right for the Reds to improve on last season (since everything went right last season), so I just ignore anything except a reasonable best-case scenario.

That is simply not accurate.

We had many injuries last year.

Our starting rotation took many hits, but the depth at the end of the day saved us.

Harang was horrible over 20 starts, then got injured. Bailey started in the DL. Leake was fatigued by the 2nd half. Volquez missed 2/3rds of the season.

Gomes OPS went down .129, and about .030 below his career average.

Phillips had his average year. Stubbs, Bruce and Votto had good years, but as talented yoiung players, that was to be expected.

Cordero at cloaser had his worse year in quite some time. Bray and Burton were hurt for lots of the season. Masset was ineffective for the early part of the season.

Who is expected to regress? I'd say Arooyo and Rolen. But we have tons of young talent that should only get better.

Scrap Irony
01-09-2011, 10:47 PM
The catchers should regress. Rolen, too. Arroyo and Votto, perhaps.

But Bruce and Stubbs look like they might be the real deal. Phillips had something going until he got his hand broken against San Francisco in late August. Volquez should be completely healthy and ready for the long haul. The young pitchers look like they could blossom. (Or at least a couple of them.) Chapman will be in Cincinnati all year. Ondrusek, Masset, and Bray should be over their struggles. Mesoraco, Frazier, Sappelt, Alonso, Francisco, and one of Maloney or LeCure should be ready to help in either LF, C, or P.

kpresidente
01-09-2011, 11:30 PM
Cordero at cloaser had his worse year in quite some time. Bray and Burton were hurt for lots of the season. Masset was ineffective for the early part of the season.

At the same time, we had a career-year from Rhodes, and I don't see Burton and Bray being any more effective than Smith and Herrera were (both of whom probably overachieved). So even though those guys missed time, having them back doesn't really represent an improvement. You could say we'll see a boost from having Chapman all year, but really, that's 60-70 innings, and we had Chapman at the end of the year and that didn't get us beyond the first round (keep in mind, my whole point was about eclipsing last season, not just repeating it).


Our starting rotation took many hits, but the depth at the end of the day saved us.

Harang was horrible over 20 starts, then got injured. Bailey started in the DL. Leake was fatigued by the 2nd half. Volquez missed 2/3rds of the season.

Look at what you're saying, though. Would we have won significantly more games if the rotation had been healthy all year? Probably not, since the fill-ins were effective. That's your point.

So back to what I was sayin, all you've really shown is that we have depth in the rotation. But that's my whole point. Having that depth exactly where we needed it didn't get us past the first round last year, so how will it get us past the first round next year? At the same time, the position players were pretty much healthy all year, and yet we had a gaping hole in LF. Clearly that hurt us. So, if you're looking to improve the team (not just maintain the status quo), and you have limited resources, which area does it make sense sacrifice? Obviously, you want to move from the area that was pretty good even under a bad-luck scenario. It doesn't matter that there's still some uncertainty there. It would have been a lot worse if the injuries/ineffectiveness had played out among the position players. And if you keep the team as currently constructed, even if we have great luck and nobody gets hurt, it can't get any better. There's no room for improvement.

Edd Roush
01-10-2011, 10:59 AM
I went with Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman, because I don’t expect any starters to be dealt in the remainder of this off-season. If Willis shines as a LOOGY during Spring Training and Billy Bray stays healthy until Opening Day, I would move Leake and Chapman to the head of the Louisville rotation and go with a bullpen of Willis/Bray/Cordero/Masset/Ondrusek/Burton and Smith would be my 12th if the Reds are to go 13 position players and 12 pitchers as they have in the past. I agree that the 2011 Reds may be better off with Chapman in the bullpen instead of a guy like Willis or Smith, but I think we sap a lot of Chapman’s long-term value by having him in the bullpen. 200 innings of ace potential pitching is much more valuable than 80 out of the pen (even if they are all in the 9th inning). I really think Jocketty is thinking about the long-term potential of this club and the Reds will be much more successful in 2012 and beyond if Chapman is allowed to develop in AAA. Furthermore, if my rotation of Arroyo/Volquez/Wood/Bailey/Cueto shines in the bigs and Chapman is tearing up AAA, Leake will be a great chip to move at the 2011 deadline. I guess I am much more bearish on Leake than most and a lot more bullish on Bailey. I definitely think Volquez deserves all of 2011 to see if he can re-gain his control post Tommy John and Cueto was definitely our best pitcher by traditional statistics last year. Arroyo is the rock of the rotation and I think Wood can be something special. With all of that added up, I am going to have Leake and Chapman miss the rotation out of spring training in 2011 with Leake the first one called up for an injury.

Jpup
01-10-2011, 11:57 AM
Anyone interested in trading Aroldis Chapman for Justin Upton? That's a real tough call IMO.

OnBaseMachine
01-10-2011, 12:21 PM
I think Volquez is going to have a very good 2011 season. I'm predicting a 3.50ish ERA and 200 K's. I really liked what I saw from him late in the season. His post surgery curveball was filthy - a legit swing and miss pitch to go along with his plus changeup and fastball.

Slyder
01-10-2011, 12:52 PM
I just don't think the stardom is going to be there for Edison Volquez, if he comes out on fire I try and find a team who "falls in love" with him and trade him if the value is there. We have the depth to "risk" it. In a perfect world Leake probably starts fresh at AAA working on getting his routine down so that he doesn't tire as quickly as last year out of the spotlight should he struggle like he did toward the end of the year. But this isn't a perfect world so right now he would be in the rotation and Chapman would be STARTING at Louisville, his contract losses a lot of value if you keep him in the pen, he has not had the opportunity to extend his arm to a MLB starter standards. Being in the pen will not be conducive to working on his secondary stuff as he will likely be a high pressure reliever where he will just rare back and fire that fastball and then make people look just absolutely foolish with the slider. We need him to become more than a dominant closer.

When September rolls around we can always give him a callup (just like last year) if he has not reached his ceiling of innings and have a dominant arm to add to the pen for the stretch run not many can say that.

Will M
01-10-2011, 01:25 PM
I just don't think the stardom is going to be there for Edison Volquez, if he comes out on fire I try and find a team who "falls in love" with him and trade him if the value is there. We have the depth to "risk" it. In a perfect world Leake probably starts fresh at AAA working on getting his routine down so that he doesn't tire as quickly as last year out of the spotlight should he struggle like he did toward the end of the year. But this isn't a perfect world so right now he would be in the rotation and Chapman would be STARTING at Louisville, his contract losses a lot of value if you keep him in the pen, he has not had the opportunity to extend his arm to a MLB starter standards. Being in the pen will not be conducive to working on his secondary stuff as he will likely be a high pressure reliever where he will just rare back and fire that fastball and then make people look just absolutely foolish with the slider. We need him to become more than a dominant closer.

When September rolls around we can always give him a callup (just like last year) if he has not reached his ceiling of innings and have a dominant arm to add to the pen for the stretch run not many can say that.

could the team have him start in Louisville & get ~125 innings as a starter then bring him to Cincinnati as a reliever ~8/1/11. Then add 25 innings in Cincinnati as a reliever & he would pitch ~150 innings in 2011. Then pencil him in for ~175 innings as a starter in Cincinnati in 2012 & a full workload for 2013. Its a bit of a compromise however it is a way for him to build up to being the starter we all want him to be but also help the major league team in 2011. The team moves Bray into Rhodes' late innings role & uses Willis or Herrera as the 2nd lefty in the pen (until Chapman arrives late in the year).

Edd Roush
01-10-2011, 01:31 PM
could the team have him start in Louisville & get ~125 innings as a starter then bring him to Cincinnati as a reliever ~8/1/11. Then add 25 innings in Cincinnati as a reliever & he would pitch ~150 innings in 2011. Then pencil him in for ~175 innings as a starter in Cincinnati in 2012 & a full workload for 2013. Its a bit of a compromise however it is a way for him to build up to being the starter we all want him to be but also help the major league team in 2011. The team moves Bray into Rhodes' late innings role & uses Willis or Herrera as the 2nd lefty in the pen (until Chapman arrives late in the year).

Sounds like a good plan to me. Financially, this also pushes his arbitration clock back one year since he would not be accumulating major league service time. I really think we may be wasting Chapman's talents by sticking him in the bullpen full-time in 2011.

Captain Hook
01-11-2011, 08:25 PM
could the team have him start in Louisville & get ~125 innings as a starter then bring him to Cincinnati as a reliever ~8/1/11. Then add 25 innings in Cincinnati as a reliever & he would pitch ~150 innings in 2011. Then pencil him in for ~175 innings as a starter in Cincinnati in 2012 & a full workload for 2013. Its a bit of a compromise however it is a way for him to build up to being the starter we all want him to be but also help the major league team in 2011. The team moves Bray into Rhodes' late innings role & uses Willis or Herrera as the 2nd lefty in the pen (until Chapman arrives late in the year).


While I like this idea, what happens if Bray,Willis or anyone else the Reds decide to throw in there fails to fill the void left by Rhodes?A handful of games blown in the late innings would have everyone in Cincinnati(and RZ for that matter)screaming for Chapman to be brought back up.I don't think there's anyway management doesn't listen.Hopefully if the team decides to adopt this type of strategy all goes well and they have a difficult time even finding room for Chapman come August.If I had to bet though, the more likely scenario is the one where Chapman is back in the pen way sooner then planned.

WebScorpion
01-13-2011, 06:41 PM
I also went with Chapman and Leake...and I would put them both in AAA as starters. In the long term, Chapman may be the most valuable player on the team and I want him coddled. Bring him slowly...I'd handle him just like last year; A full season in the AAA rotation with a late season call up just in time to qualify him for the playoff roster.
If any pitcher falters I have Leake up to fill in...he's basically just getting his work in at AAA to get used to the heavier workload. I'd alter the whole plan and keep him on the ML roster out of Spring Training if he grossly outperforms one of the other starters in ST, but it would have to be way over the top.

I'm pretty sure Reds management will want Chapman on the ML team though...they saw the gate draw that he can be last season. They won't forget that. I hope they don't screw him up.