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Scrap Irony
01-09-2011, 12:48 PM
Nate Silver, NY Times columnist, wrote an article (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/05/is-the-hall-of-fame-too-small/?hp) on the HoF and its guidelines and poor choices of 1930 members. While that's interesting, IMO, the most interesting part of the article was the following:


Other than the indulgences that the veterans committee made for players from the Depression era, the number of Hall of Famers is reasonably consistent from the birth of the American League in 1901 onward — provided that one accounts for the fact that many players who were active from about 1980 onward have yet to exhaust their eligibility. Generally, there have been about 30 or 35 Hall of Famers active in the majors at any given time.

So, Redszone, let's assume this is a 35-year HoF year. Who ya got? (Remember, this is a look ahead, not a list of the 30-35 best players of today.)

Mine:
Albert Pujols
Jim Thome
Joey Votto (Homer pick)
Justin Morneau
Chase Utley
Dustin Pedroia
Omar Vizquel
Derek Jeter
Troy Tulowitzki
Alex Rodriguez
Scott Rolen
Chipper Jones
Kevin Youkiliss
Evan Longoria
Manny Ramirez
Vlad Guerrerro
Ichiro
Jay Bruce (Homer pick)
Jason Heyward
Mike Stanton
Justin Upton
Carl Crawford
Clayton Kershaw
Tim Lincecum
Mariano Rivera
Roy Halladay
Adam Wainwright
Aroldis Chapman
Stephen Strasburg
CC Sabathia
David Price
Felix Hernandez
Buster Posey
Joe Mauer
Ivan Rodriguez

RedEye
01-09-2011, 01:33 PM
Strictly off the top of my head:

Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Pedro Martinez
Roy Halladay
CC Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
Ichiro Suzuki
Manny Ramirez
Tim Lincecum
Jim Thome
Derek Jeter
Miguel Cabrera
Chipper Jones
Vladimir Guerrero
Johan Santana
Chase Utley
Joe Mauer
Scott Rolen
Ryan Howard
Mark Teixeira
Adam Dunn
Mariano Rivera
David Wright
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner

kaldaniels
01-09-2011, 01:42 PM
Nice thread topic.

The only names on the list that I would disagree with are Vizquel and Youkiliss.

kaldaniels
01-09-2011, 01:47 PM
I can't sit down and make a list today but I would add Matt Cain.

Cliff Lee ain't bad either. But the clock is ticking.

PuffyPig
01-09-2011, 01:55 PM
I don't think Carl Crawford, other than a HOF salary, is anywhere close to a HOF'er.

Scrap Irony
01-09-2011, 02:05 PM
Vizquel has 2800 hits. I'm betting he'll get to 3000. That plus 11 Gold Gloves puts him in, IMO. Youkiliss is a tough call, but I'm thinking he'll settle in at 3B for the majority of his career, is young enough to play another decade at an extremely high level, and, with the AL East bias, he'll be voted in.

I forgot Trevor Hoffman, but don't know who to get rid of.
Chapman, perhaps? (Though I get a Randy Johnson vibe from the young southpaw, plus he's already lights out in the 'pen, which should add to career numbers instead of those early career struggles that typically drag down careers.)
Buster Posey? (A little bit of a late start, and a catcher, so his career stats will be less than stellar compared to others of his era.)
Mike Stanton? (Lots of K's, but I love his D and his power so early in a career.)
Jay Bruce? (Needs to really ramp up his numbers for inclusion. I'm talking near MVP level.)
Joey Votto? (Started a little late, though if his numbers stay this good for a decade, he should be in. Position both helps and hurts, as he'll likely stay at 1B for a long time, but he'll need to really slug to keep it.)
David Wright is another good choice, Redeye. I'd move Youkilis out for Wright. Another possible 3B could be Ryan Zimmerman (though he'll have to really slug highly for more support)
Andruw Jones is another that's a tough call.

Joseph
01-09-2011, 02:12 PM
I think its impossible to speculate on a Bruce, a Posey, a Stanton, a Votto even at this point.

Arod, Pujols, no-brainers. Wagner maybe. Hoffman sure. Jeter ok. Chipper Jones, likely. Rivera of course.

I don't think I could come up with 35 guys playing now that would make my HOF though. Doesn't mean there aren't 35, especially counting guys with less than 4 years who you just don't know about yet.

Guys like Wright, Utley, Andruw Jones....they just don't 'feel' like HoFers to me.

pedro
01-09-2011, 02:14 PM
I can't sit down and make a list today but I would add Matt Cain.

Cliff Lee ain't bad either. But the clock is ticking.

Cain's an intriguing dude. Had he spent his early seasons on a team with a better offense he might already have 100 wins and he's what ? 26 years old?

edabbs44
01-09-2011, 02:19 PM
Cain's an intriguing dude. Had he spent his early seasons on a team with a better offense he might already have 100 wins and he's what ? 26 years old?

He has 57 right now, so I'd say you could get him to 75. Not 100. But yeah, he's lost out on some wins definitely.

pedro
01-09-2011, 02:33 PM
He has 57 right now, so I'd say you could get him to 75. Not 100. But yeah, he's lost out on some wins definitely.

Yeah, 100 is a little high but if he'd been on the Yankees and not the Giants i don't think it's unreasonable to think he could have 85-90 wins by now. He's really gotten jobbed on a couple of years when he pitched great and the Giants scored almost no runs for him.

OnBaseMachine
01-09-2011, 02:40 PM
No Hanley Ramirez? Through his age 26 seasons, Ramirez has a career statline of .313/.385/.520 - .905 OPS with a 135 OPS+. 934 hits, 198 doubles, 124 homers, Rookie of the Year, and three All-Star appearances. If he stays healthy he's going to put up some scary good numbers.

redsmetz
01-09-2011, 02:59 PM
I think its impossible to speculate on a Bruce, a Posey, a Stanton, a Votto even at this point.

Arod, Pujols, no-brainers. Wagner maybe. Hoffman sure. Jeter ok. Chipper Jones, likely. Rivera of course.

I don't think I could come up with 35 guys playing now that would make my HOF though. Doesn't mean there aren't 35, especially counting guys with less than 4 years who you just don't know about yet.

Guys like Wright, Utley, Andruw Jones....they just don't 'feel' like HoFers to me.

This is the nub - it's not knowable at a particular time as to who all of those players are. Take a look back 50 years ago, 1961 season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_batting.shtml

[to see them in order, click on the "From" column twice to see most recent starting years back]

In 1961, Yaz and Lou Brock debuted. Frank Robinson was going to have his 1st MVP season. Still playing were Early Wynn (whose career began in 1939), Stan Musial, Robin Roberts, etc. So those longstanding players might be suggested, but who knew that Yaz and Brock and Robinson would have the careers they did (Robby had been NL ROY, but that's not a given for entry into the HOF).

It's a nice exercise and there will be good input about players somewhere in the middle of their careers, but we can't possibly know those younger players yet. Think of guys whose careers were wrecked like Dwight Gooden or Darrell Strawberry (by their own devices) or by injury etc. One never knows.

RedsManRick
01-09-2011, 03:04 PM
Using Baseball-Reference's play index, here are all the active players with at least 2 5.0+ WAR seasons. That's not to say you're not a future HOF if you're not on this list -- nor that you are one if you are, but I think it's a pretty good pool to choose from. It does miss relievers, who generally don't produce the volume of production of other players. FWIW, 26 players have at least 4 5.0 WAR seasons. Man, I had forgotten how great Carlos Delgado was for a long stretch of time.



Positions Players (34)
Alex Rodriguez 12
Manny Ramirez 11
Jim Thome 11
Carlos Delgado 9
Albert Pujols 9
Ken Griffey 8
Vlad Guerrero 7
Adam Dunn 7
Miguel Cabrera 6
Mark Teixeira 6
Jason Giambi 6
Andruw Jones 6
Alfonso Soriano 5
Troy Glaus 4
Todd Helton 4
Ryan Howard 4
Prince Fielder 4
Paul Konerko 4
Lance Berkman 4
Jim Edmonds 4
David Ortiz 4
Chipper Jones 4
Carlos Beltran 3
Aramis Ramirez 3
Travis Hafner 2
Ryan Braun 2
Raul Ibanez 2
Pat Burrell 2
Miguel Tejada 2
Matt Holliday 2
Jason Bay 2
Derrek Lee 2
Carlos Pena 2
Adrian Gonzalez 2

Pitchers (20)
Roy Halladay 7
Javier Vazquez 4
Johan Santana 4
Roy Oswalt 4
Andy Pettitte 3
CC Sabathia 3
Jamie Moyer 3
Jon Lester 3
Mark Buehrle 3
Tim Hudson 3
Adam Wainwright 2
Carlos Zambrano 2
Chris Carpenter 2
Cliff Lee 2
Dan Haren 2
Felix Hernandez 2
Josh Johnson 2
Livan Hernandez 2
Tim Lincecum 2
Ubaldo Jimenez 2

RedsManRick
01-09-2011, 03:09 PM
I think its impossible to speculate on a Bruce, a Posey, a Stanton, a Votto even at this point.

Arod, Pujols, no-brainers. Wagner maybe. Hoffman sure. Jeter ok. Chipper Jones, likely. Rivera of course.

I don't think I could come up with 35 guys playing now that would make my HOF though. Doesn't mean there aren't 35, especially counting guys with less than 4 years who you just don't know about yet.

Guys like Wright, Utley, Andruw Jones....they just don't 'feel' like HoFers to me.

The whole "feel" approach seems to end up leaving out players who were either extremely well rounded or obtained a lot of their value through defense. Additionally, I think it's sad that guys like Utley get under-appreciated during their peak and then doubly so in retrospect because people don't remember them ever standing out as great.

Not that your particular choices are right or wrong, just an observation about the more qualitative approach in general.

I do agree with the point that a good chunk of that 35 probably are part of a large pool of excellent pre-peak guys who could go on to HOF careers but who could just as easily fade out Dale Murphy style, like Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones. If they can put together 3 or 4 really solid seasons, they'll be there. But they could just as easily never be above average players again.

Scrap Irony
01-09-2011, 04:30 PM
No Hanley Ramirez? Through his age 26 seasons, Ramirez has a career statline of .313/.385/.520 - .905 OPS with a 135 OPS+. 934 hits, 198 doubles, 124 homers, Rookie of the Year, and three All-Star appearances. If he stays healthy he's going to put up some scary good numbers.

I thought about him, but he's going to have to move off the position sooner rather than later, he has attitude issues, and I question whether he'll be good long enough (another seven - ten years) to get in the discussion.

As to the young players, that's part of the fun with discussion. (I hope.) Pick the ones you think will be not only great, but truly Hall worthy. Tell why.

Doesn't mean you're right or wrong-- just something to talk about on a long winter's day.

Dan
01-09-2011, 05:24 PM
Jon Lester and to a lesser extent Clay Bucholz look like they're embarking on strong careers. Wouldn't surprise me to see either one get in 20 years from now.

medford
01-10-2011, 08:55 AM
I wonder if ARod is a no-brainer. Not that his stats don't make him automatic, but throw in the Steriod issue, along with a lot of people just not liking him and feeling that he's "fake" may cost him a good share of votes (right or wrong)

Personally, I think the steriod era, and the players accused (rightly or wrongly) during that time frame will come to pass, and guys like Big Mac, Bonds, A-Rod, etc.. will get the call. A-rod will get the benefit of coming up for election well after Bond's voting is played out, and presumably elected into the Hall, but you know its going to cost him multiple votes.

Ghosts of 1990
01-10-2011, 09:47 AM
Vizquel has 2800 hits. I'm betting he'll get to 3000. That plus 11 Gold Gloves puts him in, IMO. Youkiliss is a tough call, but I'm thinking he'll settle in at 3B for the majority of his career, is young enough to play another decade at an extremely high level, and, with the AL East bias, he'll be voted in.

I forgot Trevor Hoffman, but don't know who to get rid of.
Chapman, perhaps? (Though I get a Randy Johnson vibe from the young southpaw, plus he's already lights out in the 'pen, which should add to career numbers instead of those early career struggles that typically drag down careers.)
Buster Posey? (A little bit of a late start, and a catcher, so his career stats will be less than stellar compared to others of his era.)
Mike Stanton? (Lots of K's, but I love his D and his power so early in a career.)
Jay Bruce? (Needs to really ramp up his numbers for inclusion. I'm talking near MVP level.)
Joey Votto? (Started a little late, though if his numbers stay this good for a decade, he should be in. Position both helps and hurts, as he'll likely stay at 1B for a long time, but he'll need to really slug to keep it.)
David Wright is another good choice, Redeye. I'd move Youkilis out for Wright. Another possible 3B could be Ryan Zimmerman (though he'll have to really slug highly for more support)
Andruw Jones is another that's a tough call.

I think if Vizquel gets 3,000 hits and never wins a gold glove he is in. That many hits is automatic.

westofyou
01-10-2011, 10:05 AM
I think if Vizquel gets 3,000 hits and never wins a gold glove he is in. That many hits is automatic.

Unless you're Harold Baines

George Anderson
01-10-2011, 11:06 AM
Unless you're Harold Baines

Do you think Baines would have been snubbed if he reached 3,000?

RedsManRick
01-10-2011, 12:31 PM
I think if Vizquel gets 3,000 hits and never wins a gold glove he is in. That many hits is automatic.

Raffy Palmiero disagrees. And it will be interesting to see how Craig Biggio is handled.

That said, he needs 201 hits -- the same number he has hit in the last 3 seasons combined. Even playing full-time, he's going to need 2 more years. He would be the only 3000+ hit guy in MLB history with an OBP under .340 and the only one with a SLG under .400 (and OPS under .700). Though obviously he'd be getting in under the Ozzie Smith logic.

FWIW, Jay Jaffe at BP sees Vizquel as solidly not a HOF, but rather a solidly average player on balance over his career -- significantly behind Ozzie offensively and defensively. That said, I think he'll get enough support to stay on the ballot for awhile, though he wouldn't make it even with 3,000 hits.



Car Peak JAWS TAv RARP RAP FRAA
Ozzie Smith: 90.9 50.2 70.6 .261 554 219 255
Omar Vizquel: 47.8 27.8 37.8 .247 334 -16 84
AVG HOF SS: 70 47.9 59 .274 477 204 105

Car: Career WARP
Peak: Peak WARP
JAWS: Jay Jaffe's WARP Score (the average of career and peak -- used to assess HOF worthiness)
TAv: True Average (like wOBA, but average)
RARP: Runs Above Replacement Player
RAP: Runs Above Position (compared to an average player at the position)
FRAA: Fielding Runs Above Average

kaldaniels
01-10-2011, 02:46 PM
Omar Vizquel...3 All-Star games. Best MVP finish was 16th. One of the best ever with the glove. He will be 44 in April...I don't see him ever getting to 3,000 hits.

Hall of Stat Accumulators? Yes.

Hall of Fame? No.

Redsfan320
01-11-2011, 10:16 PM
Speaking of Trevor Hoffman, a HOF lock IMO, he's retiring, (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/trevor-hoffman-retires.html) starting his countdown to eligibility.

320

Ghosts of 1990
01-11-2011, 11:07 PM
Unless you're Harold Baines

Baines didn't get 3,000 hits

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baineha01.shtml

RedEye
01-11-2011, 11:29 PM
Hanley Ramirez should probably have been on my list, but for some reason I have this feeling his career will pull an Eric Davis.

Guys like Votto and Braun just feel too early in the process to make my random list at this point. A few years down the road, they'd probably make it.

I honestly had no clue that Omar Vizquel had 2,800 hits. He's the Jamie Moyer of position players, I suppose. I'm really rooting for them to get to 3,000 and 300 respectively, but don't think those numbers should qualify them for the Hall.

kaldaniels
01-11-2011, 11:43 PM
The fun part of making a list like this is taking a stab at the young guys.

Aroldis Chapman.

Yachtzee
01-12-2011, 04:55 PM
Baines didn't get 3,000 hits

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baineha01.shtml

And spent a lot of time as a DH.

westofyou
01-12-2011, 05:13 PM
Baines didn't get 3,000 hits

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baineha01.shtml

The point was if he did get to 3000 hits he likely doesn't get in because he was a DH, he was pretty close.

George Anderson
01-13-2011, 10:16 AM
The point was if he did get to 3000 hits he likely doesn't get in because he was a DH, he was pretty close.

See I think if Baines got 3,000 hits regardless if he was a DH he gets in. I know he didn't get much support for the HOF but had he hit that magic number, the writers who are very weird and quirky about things would have put him in.

westofyou
01-13-2011, 10:33 AM
See I think if Baines got 3,000 hits regardless if he was a DH he gets in. I know he didn't get much support for the HOF but had he hit that magic number, the writers who are very weird and quirky about things would have put him in.

It's possible, he was also a quality guy.

Place a prickly personality in that situation and we might see a different result