PDA

View Full Version : Reds Sign Fred Lewis



RedsManRick
01-10-2011, 05:52 PM
1 year, $900k. Great signing, IMO.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/reds-sign-fred-lewis.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter



Reds Sign Fred Lewis
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 10, 2011 at 4:43pm CST]
The Reds announced that they signed Fred Lewis to a one-year deal (Twitter link). It's a $900K major league deal, according to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon (on Twitter). The team also officially announced its one-year deal with Edgar Renteria.

Until last week, Jay Bruce was the lone left-handed hitter in the Reds' outfield. Drew Stubbs, Jonny Gomes and Chris Heisey all bat from the right side, so the team signed Jeremy Hermida and Lewis, two left-handed hitters.

Lewis, 30, hit .262/.332/.414 in 480 plate appearances for the Blue Jays after they acquired him from the Giants early in the season. Though he mostly played left field, Lewis did play some center and right in 2010. He contributed 31 doubles and 17 steals, mostly as Toronto's leadoff hitter, before the Blue Jays cut ties with him at last month's non-tender deadline.

The signing presumably eliminates the possibility that the Reds sign Scott Podsednik.

I wonder, does Hermida sign if Lewis had signed first?

kaldaniels
01-10-2011, 05:52 PM
It is now complete.

kaldaniels
01-10-2011, 05:53 PM
Rick beat me. Shut it down mods. I sat on it for 3 minutes knowing this would happen.

Brutus
01-10-2011, 05:54 PM
Sweet fancy Moses. I like it!

Not a game-changer, but an upgrade and on the cheap at that. He's a guy that gets on base better than average and won't hurt the Reds defensively. Decent leadoff option. I like this. Not a ton of upside, but definitely not much downside either.

Redsfan320
01-10-2011, 05:57 PM
For 900K, that's awesome!

320

RedsManRick
01-10-2011, 05:59 PM
I'm guessing he's the primary starter vR and will leadoff when he plays. Then Stubbs/Phillips can leadoff vL.

Fangraphs has him at league average in LF defensively for his career. Fan Scounting Report is less generous, giving him decent range but a crap arm.

kaldaniels
01-10-2011, 05:59 PM
Maybe Lewis and Gomes will make a nice 2 Headed Monster in LF for a cool 3 Million.

Cedric
01-10-2011, 06:00 PM
Like this move a lot. Gives the Reds balance in their lineup and probably takes away a ton of at bats from Gomes.. Can't argue at all with this.

Redsfan320
01-10-2011, 06:00 PM
Hats off to Walt. This makes us front-runners in the division again. Our bench has improved a lot with RR/SoftJ and Gomes on it.

320

Homer Bailey
01-10-2011, 06:02 PM
Less Gomes vs. RHP, and very cheap. I'm guessing it's going to be him and Renteria hitting 1-2 in front of Votto.

Do we have any idea why his walk rate dipped last year? I'd love to see him post his OBP #'s from his SF era:

2007: .374
2008: .351
2009: .348

Bill James projecting him at a .353 OBP and a .338 wOBA. I can get behind this, assuming his defense is league average or better, and the decline in his numbers isn't indicative of an actual decline.

redsfandan
01-10-2011, 06:03 PM
It is now complete.

Yep. We can probably pass judgement on the offseason now cuz I doubt there's anymore moves on the horizon.

Homer Bailey
01-10-2011, 06:03 PM
Hats off to Walt. This makes us front-runners in the division again. Our bench has improved a lot with RR/SoftJ and Gomes on it.

320

No team signs Fred Lewis and BECOMES the front runner in their division.

RedsManRick
01-10-2011, 06:05 PM
Less Gomes vs. RHP, and very cheap. I'm guessing it's going to be him and Renteria hitting 1-2 in front of Votto.

Do we have any idea why his walk rate dipped last year? I'd love to see him post his OBP #'s from his SF era:

2007: .374
2008: .351
2009: .348

Bill James projecting him at a .353 OBP and a .338 wOBA. I can get behind this, assuming his defense is league average or better, and the decline in his numbers isn't indicative of an actual decline.

I don't know if this is the reason, but Toronto coaching staff has advocating a swing hard philosophy. They may have encouraged a more aggressive approach. Though we're only talking about something like 8-10 walks. Could be a bit of random variation.

Mario-Rijo
01-10-2011, 06:05 PM
Less Gomes vs. RHP, and very cheap. I'm guessing it's going to be him and Renteria hitting 1-2 in front of Votto.

Do we have any idea why his walk rate dipped last year? I'd love to see him post his OBP #'s from his SF era:

2007: .374
2008: .351
2009: .348

Bill James projecting him at a .353 OBP and a .338 wOBA. I can get behind this, assuming his defense is league average or better, and the decline in his numbers isn't indicative of an actual decline.

I'd say this is probably the case unless they are true to their word and Renteria is a backup in which case I suspect it'll be Lewis and BP at the top. But yes fantastic move and got him a whole lot cheaper than I thought.

HeatherC1212
01-10-2011, 06:06 PM
Nice pickup for the Reds! I'm on board for sure. :thumbup:

RedsManRick
01-10-2011, 06:06 PM
2011 would have been his first year of arb eligibility. Does that mean we've got him for 2 more arb-eliglble years after this?

Blitz Dorsey
01-10-2011, 06:09 PM
Nice. The final piece of the puzzle. Walt said he was looking for a leadoff hitter/LF -- I knew he wasn't going to stand pat after saying that publicly.

The Operator
01-10-2011, 06:10 PM
I can dig this. Maybe that Walt guy hasn't been asleep all winter. :cool:

edabbs44
01-10-2011, 06:18 PM
Not a bad signing, low risk and likely to provide value. If he lives up to the RZ hype, he'll be gold.

edabbs44
01-10-2011, 06:19 PM
I can dig this. Maybe that Walt guy hasn't been asleep all winter. :cool:

I called him Mr January a week ago, maybe that name isn't that off?

lollipopcurve
01-10-2011, 06:25 PM
Solid, solid signing.

RedsManRick
01-10-2011, 06:38 PM
FWIW, Jays fans on MLBTradeRumors are glad to be rid of him, claiming he's a diva who whined for more playing time.

Edd Roush
01-10-2011, 06:44 PM
FWIW, Jays fans on MLBTradeRumors are glad to be rid of him, claiming he's a diva who whined for more playing time.

If he plays well enough to beat out Hermida for the left-handed portion of the left field plattoon in Spring Training, he should be getting plenty of playing time vs right-handed starters.

Will M
01-10-2011, 06:44 PM
1) Lewis fits the Reds need for a LH hitting outfielder who could fit in the budget. He also comes cheaper than I would have thought. I expected the team to have to pay $2M considering the Ms offered Nix $1.5M and Podsednik turned down a $1.75M option from the Dodgers.
2) I liked the Renteria signing as well. $2M base salary & incentives. I liked bringing Ramon back fairly cheaply. Gomes can provide $1.8M worth of value if used properly. Even Cairo was too good to pass up for $1M/year for 2 years. Willis & Hermida were fine minor league signings. All in all Walt has done a fine job this offseason bringing in cheap talent to the 25 man roster. It allows him to keep guys at AAA that he feels need more developmental time. If they actually do then its good not to rush them to the bigs.
3) however, i am still disappointed with the approach this offseason (as well as at last years trade dealine). i suspect the payroll is limiting Walt's options a lot. as an example the As traded lower grade prospects for DeJesus & Willingham. Both are better than what the Reds ended up with. however, the Reds payroll wouldn't allow them to add a 2.5 WAR player that cost $6M in salary. is that Walt's fault? no. its the owners.

RANDY IN INDY
01-10-2011, 06:56 PM
I'm not sold. I hope I am wrong.

RedsManRick
01-10-2011, 07:34 PM
I'm not sold. I hope I am wrong.

Sold on?

TRF
01-10-2011, 07:37 PM
any signing that forces Gomes to the bench when ANY RH pitcher is on the hill is a good thing. Now if only Heisey can force him into another uniform...

RANDY IN INDY
01-10-2011, 07:47 PM
Sold on?

Fred Lewis as a platoon partner with Gomes.

RANDY IN INDY
01-10-2011, 07:48 PM
Maybe he'll go all George Foster or something. Personally, I wish they would have addressed the left field situation in a bigger way. I could have lived with Janish at short if they would have picked up a better option in left. Lewis will have to prove it on the field.

RedsManRick
01-10-2011, 07:49 PM
Fred Lewis as a platoon partner with Gomes.

But what does that mean? That he won't be used that way? That he won't be successful in that role (defined as performing at his historical level)? That he will perform as he has but that he won't provide much additional value?

Scrap Irony
01-10-2011, 07:53 PM
Career (1200 AB) line of .280/.354/.442/.796 versus RH pitching. Solid, that.

Gomes' career line against LHP: .276/.371/.507/.878 More than solid, that.

A strict platoon would be around a 280/360/475 835 line with decent speed and poor defense. (Though not as bad as last season.)

If both continue to hit their career averages, Red fans can expect something along the line of Dmitri Young.

Not a bad deal at all.

The Operator
01-10-2011, 08:00 PM
A strict platoon would be around a 280/360/475 835 line with decent speed and poor defense. (Though not as bad as last season.)

If both continue to hit their career averages, Red fans can expect something along the line of Dmitri Young.

Not a bad deal at all.Indeed.

I was not wild at all about Gomes coming back but if he and Lewis are used correctly in a platoon, I'd be just fine.

reds44
01-10-2011, 08:09 PM
Love it. Jocketty said he's probably done now too. Is it Opening Day yet? Lets go get it.

RED VAN HOT
01-10-2011, 08:13 PM
a good signing. Of the FA players available to fill the LF and IF spots, I think Walt got the best ones and at reasonable prices. Also, the farm system has not been depleted in the process of shoring up the holes. That leaves some attractive trading chips as well as salary cap for the Reds to use in going after a critical piece at the trade deadline.

The Reds are going to face TOR starters many times this season, not only within the division, but also in the two four game series with the Phils. They are not going to beat them with three run HR's. They will need an ability to manufacture runs. The Lewis signing is a step in that direction. I don't believe that any player has a lock on the LF spot. IMO, Heisey has the best all around combination of defense, speed, and power. Then again, I am a long time Heisey booster. Let the competition begin.

redsmetz
01-10-2011, 08:13 PM
Love it. Jocketty said he's probably done now too. Is it Opening Day yet? Lets go get it.

37 days until Pitchers & Catchers report! :beerme:

MartyFan
01-10-2011, 08:33 PM
Love it. Jocketty said he's probably done now too. Is it Opening Day yet? Lets go get it.

I know he says that but I do not believe him.

I SERIOUSLY believe there is some sort of trade in the cards (no pun) for the Reds that will see a high dollar salary leave town to open salary flexibility.

wheels
01-10-2011, 08:43 PM
What I like about all these signings as a whole is that they will more than likely have very little negative impact, if any.

Nice, high floor off season. Nothing fancy. Very Walt.

Oh...And how amazing would it be if D Train and Hermida somehow find it again?

Scrap Irony
01-10-2011, 08:44 PM
I know he says that but I do not believe him.

I SERIOUSLY believe there is some sort of trade in the cards (no pun) for the Reds that will see a high dollar salary leave town to open salary flexibility.

A deal of a starter and Cordero wouldn't shock me at all, but who to? And for what?

Dunno.

Oxilon
01-10-2011, 08:48 PM
Still would have preferred to have DeJesus in LF.

Will M
01-10-2011, 08:51 PM
the farm system has not been depleted in the process of shoring up the holes. That leaves some attractive trading chips as well as salary cap for the Reds to use in going after a critical piece at the trade deadline.




I know he says that but I do not believe him.

I SERIOUSLY believe there is some sort of trade in the cards (no pun) for the Reds that will see a high dollar salary leave town to open salary flexibility.

Right now Walt does not HAVE to make a move. He can take the roster as it is & plan to start the season without any changes. There are positions we would all like to see improved but there are no gaping holes. If a good deal either comes to him or he works to put one together then the team certainly can make a trade. Nobody in the left field or shortstop mix is an everyday player.
Janish, Leake (or Alonso) & a prospect for Stephen Drew? make it so.
Heisey & Leake (or Alonso) & a prospect for Justin Upton? make it so.
Gomes, a pitcher & a prospect for Nelson Cruz? make it so.
Its not like Edgar Renteria, Gomes or Fred Lewis wouldn't make decent bench players. Sure they would be disappointed if the team traded for an everyday solution at their position. But its part of the game.

My suspicion is that Walt won't make a deal prior to spring training. Its possible a deal is made prior to the season. I would be suprised if a solid trade isn't made by the dealine.

mth123
01-10-2011, 08:59 PM
Chris Dickerson with less defense and a little more consistency on offense. Good move for 900K. Lewis is not a very good defender, but he is capable of filling the lead-off role. If this pushes Stubbs to a power spot, I wonder if Gomes might be moved leaving the platoon to lead-off types Lewis and Heisey (and maybe Sappelt down the road).

I'd still like to see Hermida make the team somehow, but can't see how unless Gomes is moved. I also think Heisey may be in danger of being optioned if he has a poor spring.

HokieRed
01-10-2011, 09:18 PM
Chris Dickerson with less defense and a little more consistency on offense. Good move for 900K. Lewis is not a very good defender, but he is capable of filling the lead-off role. If this pushes Stubbs to a power spot, I wonder if Gomes might be moved leaving the platoon to lead-off types Lewis and Heisey (and maybe Sappelt down the road).

I'd still like to see Hermida make the team somehow, but can't see how unless Gomes is moved. I also think Heisey may be in danger of being optioned if he has a poor spring.

This move's fine but it does make the Hermida move a little hard to understand if Heisey really fits in the plans.

TheNext44
01-10-2011, 09:32 PM
This move's fine but it does make the Hermida move a little hard to understand if Heisey really fits in the plans.

I'll be surprised if Gomes, Heisey, Lewis and Hermedia are all on the Reds opening day roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gomes as the odd man out.

membengal
01-10-2011, 09:37 PM
What I like about all these signings as a whole is that they will more than likely have very little negative impact, if any.

Nice, high floor off season. Nothing fancy. Very Walt.

Oh...And how amazing would it be if D Train and Hermida somehow find it again?

It would be delightful.

I am still disappointed that the Reds did not make a move from the surplus to really solidify the team in LF or at SP. But that they did not speaks to the limits of the budget. Don't like it, but so be it.

So....if they couldn't make a move for an Upton or a Grienke, then at least under Plan B I really like the signings Walt made and the guys he targeted in making the signings. Love Lewis a LOT more than Podsednik. Like Renteria as veteran insurance or starter at SS. Really pleased with the option of a Hermida instead of a Nix. If they were not going to make a splash, then what Walt ended up doing was a good fallback.

I feel like the club is improved over last year's edition. Will it be enough? Got me. A lot will depend on the kind of step forward again we've all talked about needing from the core of youngsters. But Lewis/Renteria/Hermida/Willis is a nice set of potential veteran help to the club for not much money. Really nice set of moves.

wheels
01-10-2011, 09:48 PM
It would be delightful.

I am still disappointed that the Reds did not make a move from the surplus to really solidify the team in LF or at SP. But that they did not speaks to the limits of the budget. Don't like it, but so be it.

So....if they couldn't make a move for an Upton or a Grienke, then at least under Plan B I really like the signings Walt made and the guys he targeted in making the signings. Love Lewis a LOT more than Podsednik. Like Renteria has veteran insurance or starter at SS. Really pleased with the option of a Hermida instead of a Nix. If they were not going to make a splash, then what Walt ended up doing was a good fallback.

I feel like the club is improved over last year's edition. Will it be enough? Got me. A lot will depend on the kind of step forward again we've all talked about needing from the core of youngsters. But Lewis/Renteria/Hermida/Willis is a nice set of potential veteran help to the club for not much money. Really nice set of moves.


I really don't think it's gonna be enough to repeat, but as you said....So be it. They've put themselves in the position to captalize on some "Ya never know" types, all without compromising the young core.

The team is on solid footing, so who really knows? If they get a couple of lucky breaks with some acquisitions, and if a youngster (Bruce...Cough!) or two breaks out.... I think they've got a chance.

Should make for some interesting Baseball.

Heath
01-10-2011, 10:33 PM
Gosh, when Hermida had that nice 2007 in Florida, he had Uggla, Miggy Cabrera, and Hanley Ramirez in the lineup. Replace that with Phillips, Bruce, Votto, and a short porch in RF in GABP could be the RX to Hermida.

corkedbat
01-10-2011, 10:47 PM
Meh. At least it wasn't Posednik and getting it done for less than a Million is certainly a good thing. I personally don't like weakening another corner, but better production at the top of the order could certainly help the offense.

Anything less than a .350 OBP is probably a fail, IMO. He at least needs to get on base at a higher clip than Stubbs, Renteria and Phillips. Maybe platooning the leadoff spot (Lewis v. RH/Stubbs v. LH) could lead to a decent bump at the top of the order. We can hope.

I still thing this lineup needs to add a middle of the order from outside of the organization, but clearly resources are just not there. Here's hoping for a bump in attendance and possible change to that situation come the trade deadline (or sooner).

Caveat Emperor
01-10-2011, 10:59 PM
I'll be surprised if Gomes, Heisey, Lewis and Hermedia are all on the Reds opening day roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gomes as the odd man out.

I put the odds of Gomes missing the final roster (barring injury) at less than 0%.

I mean, he's got a bobblehead day scheduled...

marcshoe
01-10-2011, 11:25 PM
The two cheap outfielders I advocated signing were Lewis and Hermida, so yeah, I'm satisfied with this. Not jumping-up-and-down-happy, but satisfied. Lewis is a servicable guy who can contribute to wins. Hermida, I think, is still a possible breakout. I would've loved a big power guy, but it's been pretty clear that wasn't going to happen, so I think this move improves the team.

Wheelhouse
01-10-2011, 11:33 PM
The two cheap outfielders I advocated signing were Lewis and Hermida, so yeah, I'm satisfied with this. Not jumping-up-and-down-happy, but satisfied. Lewis is a servicable guy who can contribute to wins. Hermida, I think, is still a possible breakout. I would've loved a big power guy, but it's been pretty clear that wasn't going to happen, so I think this move improves the team.

A player who hits 15 HRs a year and gets into the good environment of the Reds/the good lineup of the Reds /the dimensions of GABP can become a "power guy" IMO. It's smart to pay less for the guys who hit 10-15 HRs who have the potential to become 20-25 HR guys on the Reds. Why pay huge dollars for a guy who hits the ball 425 feet all the time? You don't need that to hit it out of the Reds ballpark. I like the moves Walt is making the best moves under the circumstances...

IslandRed
01-11-2011, 01:04 AM
This move's fine but it does make the Hermida move a little hard to understand if Heisey really fits in the plans.

I don't think the Hermida signing has anything to do with anything quite yet. He's a reclamation project. He needs to rake at Louisville for awhile before he rates a discussion of who he'll bump from the 25-man in Cincinnati. Just my opinion, of course.

Ron Madden
01-11-2011, 03:14 AM
Good.

I'd much rather have Lewis at his age/price than Podsednik at his age/price.

I still have faith in Heisey and Sappelt though.

mth123
01-11-2011, 03:29 AM
So, if I understand it, Lewis and Renteria signed big league deals. That puts the 40 man roster at 41. Who goes? Danny Rae gets my vote.

Topcat
01-11-2011, 03:36 AM
Excellent move! This and adding Hermidia pleases me a lot. Low cost players with up sides are a delicious treat. Walt I applaud your efforts.

redsmetz
01-11-2011, 06:18 AM
So, if I understand it, Lewis and Renteria signed big league deals. That puts the 40 man roster at 41. Who goes? Danny Rae gets my vote.

I just counted and it's right at 40 players. Don't see any mention under transactions of anyone being dropped.

camisadelgolf
01-11-2011, 08:13 AM
I just counted and it's right at 40 players. Don't see any mention under transactions of anyone being dropped.
Lewis is the 40th. No moves need to be made atm.

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 08:22 AM
Not a bad signing, low risk and likely to provide value. If he lives up to the RZ hype, he'll be gold.

Just a pre-emptive rebut here to the inevitable disappointment when the guy doesn't set the world on fire. The expectations from those who like him are that he is a solid option with the potential for a better than normal year by his standards, lets not get carried away with the hyperbole. Besides Walt Jocketty signed him so he must be awesome right?

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 08:26 AM
Chris Dickerson with less defense and a little more consistency on offense. Good move for 900K. Lewis is not a very good defender, but he is capable of filling the lead-off role. If this pushes Stubbs to a power spot, I wonder if Gomes might be moved leaving the platoon to lead-off types Lewis and Heisey (and maybe Sappelt down the road).

I'd still like to see Hermida make the team somehow, but can't see how unless Gomes is moved. I also think Heisey may be in danger of being optioned if he has a poor spring.

Just curious as to how you come to this conclusion? And is "very good" in your terms mean he just isn't Carl Crawford in LF? Because to be fair you have a really high standard when it comes to defenders IMO. He has to be better than Gomes and by alot I would think. As far as LF's go I can't imagine how he couldn't be in the upper echelon of them.

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 08:33 AM
Meh. At least it wasn't Posednik and getting it done for less than a Million is certainly a good thing. I personally don't like weakening another corner, but better production at the top of the order could certainly help the offense.

Anything less than a .350 OBP is probably a fail, IMO. He at least needs to get on base at a higher clip than Stubbs, Renteria and Phillips. Maybe platooning the leadoff spot (Lewis v. RH/Stubbs v. LH) could lead to a decent bump at the top of the order. We can hope.


I still thing this lineup needs to add a middle of the order from outside of the organization, but clearly resources are just not there. Here's hoping for a bump in attendance and possible change to that situation come the trade deadline (or sooner).

No doubt about it the biggest problem we are gonna have is teams walking Joey to get to Rolen (and whoever else). Rolen is a solid guy in these instances but when he struggles the Reds will (which could be more and more now) and then there is the times he isn't in the lineup at all. And now we likely have our LF (hoping it's a Lewis Heisey split frankly) so now we would have to get that pop from SS, Hanley Ramirez is about it there.

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 08:35 AM
I don't think the Hermida signing has anything to do with anything quite yet. He's a reclamation project. He needs to rake at Louisville for awhile before he rates a discussion of who he'll bump from the 25-man in Cincinnati. Just my opinion, of course.

Completely agree, IslandRed. Hermida has an uphill battle to make the 25 man roster. The only way he makes the Opening Day Roster, IMO, is if Lewis or Bruce get hurt in Spring Training. He will need to rake for a while in AAA for him to get the call. BTW, this signing is also a major boon to Lousiville. Their starters are now likely C Mesoraco, 1B Alonso, 2B Valaika, SS Cozart, 3B Francisco, LF Hermida, CF Sappelt, RF Barton. If Leake and Chapman start out in that rotation with Maloney like I want them to, that team could take 3 of 10 from the Pirates. That's some solid depth and that cannot be discounted.

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 08:40 AM
Completely agree, IslandRed. Hermida has an uphill battle to make the 25 man roster. The only way he makes the Opening Day Roster, IMO, is if Lewis or Bruce get hurt in Spring Training. He will need to rake for a while in AAA for him to get the call. BTW, this signing is also a major boon to Lousiville. Their starters are now likely C Mesoraco, 1B Alonso, 2B Valaika, SS Cozart, 3B Francisco, LF Hermida, CF Sappelt, RF Barton. If Leake and Chapman start out in that rotation with Maloney like I want them to, that team could take 3 of 10 from the Pirates. That's some solid depth and that cannot be discounted.

Just 3 out of 10? ;)

But seriously I could see Gomes missing the cut if he struggles mightily in Goodyear though that is tough to do for any offensive player. He too could get hurt as well opening the door for Hermida. But if he did I would like this OF a lot better...

Lewis/Heisey LF
Stubbs CF
Bruce RF

Hermida on the bench.

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 08:52 AM
Just 3 out of 10? ;)

But seriously I could see Gomes missing the cut if he struggles mightily in Goodyear though that is tough to do for any offensive player. He too could get hurt as well opening the door for Hermida. But if he did I would like this OF a lot better...

Lewis/Heisey LF
Stubbs CF
Bruce RF

Hermida on the bench.

Mario, I usually agree with most of what you post, but I gotta disagree here. When Gomes is used correctly (ie strictly as a plattoon player vs left-handed pitching), he is a very valuable player. These numbers have been already posted, but I will repost them again for emphasis. Gomes is a .276/.371/.507 player against lefties. He murders them. That's a pretty legit sample size of 796 major league plate apearances. He has a lot of value against lefties. Now let's look at Heisey, in a very small sample size of 100 major league plate appearances, he has a .169/.242/.303 line against lefties. I know that's a small sample size, but woof. He absolutely cannot be counted on being a plattoon partner for Lewis with that line. I don't care how much he rakes in Spring Training. Unless Gomes gets hurt, he should be a lock for the Opening Day roster.

Strikes Out Looking
01-11-2011, 09:06 AM
I like the move for a number of reasons that really have nothing to do with Fred Lewis:

1. It was very cheap. The Reds will have salary room at mid-season to make a move if needed for a push if they need to make a Cliff Lee type trade.

2. The Reds cupboard is still loaded. They didn't give up one prospect in a trade to get someone to leadoff, at least part of the time. There are still prospective lead off hitters coming up in the system -- this deal gives them more time to develop.

3. Walt continues to build for the long term. Even if the Reds take a step back in '11, they have a strong nucleus going forward -- unlike the Brewers who are all or nothing in '11 and the Cardinals who are trying to stay strong as long as 'la Genius blesses them with his presence.

TRF
01-11-2011, 09:09 AM
In 50 games and 107 AB's as a LF, Laynce Nix posted this line: .308 .362 .495 .857

overall vs RH's it was .289 .346 .450 .795 in 83 games and 149 AB's.

And yet, it was not a strict platoon was it?

Why do we think all of a sudden it will be now?

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 09:09 AM
Mario, I usually agree with most of what you post, but I gotta disagree here. When Gomes is used correctly (ie strictly as a plattoon player vs left-handed pitching), he is a very valuable player. These numbers have been already posted, but I will repost them again for emphasis. Gomes is a .276/.371/.507 player against lefties. He murders them. That's a pretty legit sample size of 796 major league plate apearances. He has a lot of value against lefties. Now let's look at Heisey, in a very small sample size of 100 major league plate appearances, he has a .169/.242/.303 line against lefties. I know that's a small sample size, but woof. He absolutely cannot be counted on being a plattoon partner for Lewis with that line. I don't care how much he rakes in Spring Training. Unless Gomes gets hurt, he should be a lock for the Opening Day roster.

I don't completely disagree with you on this actually. My thought process on Heisey (and for that matter my hope for Hermida as well though not sure his issues completely) is that if he gets his swing mechanics right he is a completely different producer than what we have seen. He is likely a 20/20 guy or better who has a line something like BP has had only with more IsoD (more walks and thus a higher OBP%) and of course I think he is a good defender and baserunner.

If Heisey doesn't get his swing mechanics right then he should be at best what he was last season if he can even beat out Hermida/Barton/Sappelt/Perez etc.

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 09:14 AM
In 50 games and 107 AB's as a LF, Laynce Nix posted this line: .308 .362 .495 .857

overall vs RH's it was .289 .346 .450 .795 in 83 games and 149 AB's.

And yet, it was not a strict platoon was it?

Why do we think all of a sudden it will be now?

Well because unlike Nix Lewis has a different role on the team, Nix was just a better defending version of Gomes from the left side. Another thing, I have always felt one thing Dusty cannot stand is a lack of contact and Nix was probably even worse at that than Gomes is, Lewis is not. I don't know their K numbers but I think Dusty recognized that Nix had bigger holes in his swing than Gomes whereas Gomes was just less disciplined and therefore had a slight advantage in making contact. Easier to be disciplined than to sew up that big 'ole hole one has.

lollipopcurve
01-11-2011, 09:17 AM
And yet, it was not a strict platoon was it?

It was going in that direction. Around the time Nix sprained his ankle, Baker was talking about getting him more ABs. Then they got Edmonds, and he was getting some ABs over Gomes -- until he got hurt.


Why do we think all of a sudden it will be now?


I think they'll platoon Gomes more often than not because he took a steep dive vs righties in the latter part of the year, played iffy defense, and the team lacks punch off the bench.

TRF
01-11-2011, 09:18 AM
Well because unlike Nix Lewis has a different role on the team, Nix was just a better defending version of Gomes from the left side. Another thing, I have always felt one thing Dusty cannot stand is a lack of contact and Nix was probably even worse at that than Gomes is, Lewis is not.

.289 BA vs RH pitching in 2010

That doesn't suggest a lack of contact. His 2010 overall numbers: .291 .350 .455 .805

And he's a better defender than Lewis.

The problem was, Dusty did not use them as a strict platoon. Of course, Nix was nicked up a bit last year, but give him 350-400 AB's against RH pitching, and he's be fine.

edabbs44
01-11-2011, 09:20 AM
In 50 games and 107 AB's as a LF, Laynce Nix posted this line: .308 .362 .495 .857

overall vs RH's it was .289 .346 .450 .795 in 83 games and 149 AB's.

And yet, it was not a strict platoon was it?

Why do we think all of a sudden it will be now?

You broke down Gomes' monthly production yesterday, have you seen Nix's?

April - .638
May - .852
June - .457
July - 1.304
August - .859
Sept - .730

He started seeing more time in August, then got hurt. But did he really do much before the 2nd half to warrant any kind of playing time?

1st half line - .234/.268/.411

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 09:24 AM
You broke down Gomes' monthly production yesterday, have you seen Nix's?

April - .638
May - .852
June - .457
July - 1.304
August - .859
Sept - .730

He started seeing more time in August, then got hurt. But did he really do much before the 2nd half to warrant any kind of playing time?

1st half line - .234/.268/.411


Beat me to the point, edabbs. To add to it, Nix has a career .251/.293/.445 line against righties in 1264 plate appearances. Last year's July was just a blip of success in a small sample size over a very mediocre (and poor OBP) career. Give me Lewis's .280/.354/.442 every day. In addition, Lewis will likely get a bump in those aggregate stats for playing in GABP. I wouldn't be surprised with a .285/.360/.450 line from him next year. Sounds like a lead-off hitter to me.

TRF
01-11-2011, 09:25 AM
You broke down Gomes' monthly production yesterday, have you seen Nix's?

April - .638
May - .852
June - .457
July - 1.304
August - .859
Sept - .730

He started seeing more time in August, then got hurt. But did he really do much before the 2nd half to warrant any kind of playing time?

1st half line - .234/.268/.411

Sure. I see a total package here. I see a better defender than Gomes or Lewis. I see a strict platoon player too. You want to break it down by halfs like I did with Gomes, BUT Gomes got 511 AB's. and he sucked for 2/3 of those AB's. Here is his line for 346 AB's: .257 .301 .408 .709. Y-A-W-N.

Now you might see the issue. Nix was better than Lewis against RH pitching. He's a better defender. Why would anyone think Gomes is going to get less than 500 AB's after Jocketty signed a player that isn't as good as who he is letting walk?

TRF
01-11-2011, 09:28 AM
Beat me to the point, edabbs. To add to it, Nix has a career .251/.293/.445 line against righties in 1264 plate appearances. Last year's July was just a blip of success in a small sample size over a very mediocre (and poor OBP) career. Give me Lewis's .280/.354/.442 every day. In addition, Lewis will likely get a bump in those aggregate stats for playing in GABP. I wouldn't be surprised with a .285/.360/.450 line from him next year. Sounds like a lead-off hitter to me.

To be fair, Nix has been an injury prone player. That may have played into Jocketty's decision to let him walk.

Past that, I still see Gomes getting 500+ AB's in 2010. It won't matter one bit what Hermida or Lewis do in ST. Gomes is the starter. oh. joy.

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 09:29 AM
Sure. I see a total package here. I see a better defender than Gomes or Lewis. I see a strict platoon player too. You want to break it down by halfs like I did with Gomes, BUT Gomes got 511 AB's. and he sucked for 2/3 of those AB's. Here is his line for 346 AB's: .257 .301 .408 .709. Y-A-W-N.

Now you might see the issue. Nix was better than Lewis against RH pitching. He's a better defender. Why would anyone think Gomes is going to get less than 500 AB's after Jocketty signed a player that isn't as good as who he is letting walk?

Nix isn't a leadoff hitter, and we need one. Now you can debate the statistics but it's my opinion that Dusty sees a leadoff hitter a certain way and Lewis fits in that idea and Nix doesn't come close.

westofyou
01-11-2011, 09:30 AM
I wish I could tell the future, but I can't.

However I like this move and have faith that they know that Gomes is not a 500PA a year player.

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 09:31 AM
Past that, I still see Gomes getting 500+ AB's in 2010.

I really don't believe this will happen. Walt wouldn't bring in two corner outfielders and give them a chance to compete for a major league job if Gomes was a lock for 500 ABs. The only reason he got so many PAs last year was injuries to Nix and Edmonds.

Speaking of Edmonds, does this signing signal the end of the Jim Edmonds era in Cincinnati? I would still love him back as a coach, but there is no room any more for him as a player.

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 09:31 AM
To be fair, Nix has been an injury prone player. That may have played into Jocketty's decision to let him walk.

Past that, I still see Gomes getting 500+ AB's in 2010. It won't matter one bit what Hermida or Lewis do in ST. Gomes is the starter. oh. joy.

And that is the other thing with Dusty and Walt, if you show a penchant for ending up on the DL you'll be gone as soon as they can deal ya or let ya walk (Ocab included).

lollipopcurve
01-11-2011, 09:33 AM
To be fair, Nix has been an injury prone player. That may have played into Jocketty's decision to let him walk.


Absolutely. It's a critical component of a player's profile.

The Reds had Nix for a couple years. They know what they had.

Redsfan320
01-11-2011, 09:35 AM
Man, Redszone is hoppin' this weekday morning. Is everyone off work/school because of the snow?

320

chicoruiz
01-11-2011, 09:38 AM
So how would you guys compare Lewis to Chris Dickerson? Maybe slightly more OBP, slightly less defense?

edabbs44
01-11-2011, 09:40 AM
I wish I could tell the future, but I can't.

However I like this move and have faith that they know that Gomes is not a 500PA a year player.

I think that became apparent of their thoughts on Gomes as we got deeper into the summer last year. I don't think that it was a coincidence that he saw his 2nd lowest PA total in August last year, when the lowest was in April when he was splitting time with the white hot Chris Dickerson.

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 09:46 AM
So how would you guys compare Lewis to Chris Dickerson? Maybe slightly more OBP, slightly less defense?

Chris Dickerson may be a good comp. Dickerson certainly plays better defense and has a better arm, but Lewis has been better about staying healthy. I don't know if Lewis has much more OBP, but he should be on the field more.

REDREAD
01-11-2011, 09:55 AM
however, i am still disappointed with the approach this offseason (as well as at last years trade dealine). i suspect the payroll is limiting Walt's options a lot. as an example the As traded lower grade prospects for DeJesus & Willingham. Both are better than what the Reds ended up with. however, the Reds payroll wouldn't allow them to add a 2.5 WAR player that cost $6M in salary. is that Walt's fault? no. its the owners.

This is an interesting question though.

It appears from a $ standpoint, hypothetically, the Reds might have been able to get Willingham, if they were willing to not get Renturia, Lewis, Hermida, and Gomes. I am going to assume for the sake of argument that Hermida gets about 1-1.5 million if he makes the team.

Assuming that is true, would you rather get Willingham?

I think I would not, mainly because I love the Renturia move (I don't have confidence in Janish being the lone SS) . Also, IIRC, isn't Willingham a year away from free agency?

Willingham is not exactly a complete LF either, he is not exactly a great defender either.

Walt believes in depth.. with this Lewis signing, we have some nice depth in the OF. I also think that Heisley is going to really have to fight for a job now (if he's not traded before ST, the Reds may already have concluded he's another Dickerson and best used as trade bait).

TRF
01-11-2011, 10:06 AM
I thought Gomes got a little rest late last year because of injury. Not enough to put him on the DL, but enough to give him quite a few days off.

So now the Reds know he doesn't need 500+ PA's? after giving him 500+ PA's? ok that is possible.

But I don't think it is likely.

IF this is a strict platoon, fine. It does upgrade the leadoff spot. However, the Reds scored 106 runs from the leadoff spot, 7th in the NL 12 behind league leader Florida. A better OBP would be great there. I'm not sure how much difference 12 runs over the course of a season makes, given the power of this offense. (Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Stubbs)

REDREAD
01-11-2011, 10:08 AM
I wish I could tell the future, but I can't.

However I like this move and have faith that they know that Gomes is not a 500PA a year player.

Yes, if they had faith that Gomes was an everyday starter, I doubt they bring in both Hermedia and Leiws. IMO, this is also a no confidence vote to Heisley, who is going to have to re-earn his lineup spot.

I think we have to give Walt some credit here. He's not dumb. He knows that LF and SS were the weaknesses going into this winter, and he did something about it, without giving up any prospects. If a good trade presents itself, I am sure he will pull the trigger, but he's at the point now where he doesn't really HAVE to do anything.

Will M
01-11-2011, 10:09 AM
This is an interesting question though.

It appears from a $ standpoint, hypothetically, the Reds might have been able to get Willingham, if they were willing to not get Renturia, Lewis, Hermida, and Gomes. I am going to assume for the sake of argument that Hermida gets about 1-1.5 million if he makes the team.

Assuming that is true, would you rather get Willingham?

I think I would not, mainly because I love the Renturia move (I don't have confidence in Janish being the lone SS) . Also, IIRC, isn't Willingham a year away from free agency?

Willingham is not exactly a complete LF either, he is not exactly a great defender either.

Walt believes in depth.. with this Lewis signing, we have some nice depth in the OF. I also think that Heisley is going to really have to fight for a job now (if he's not traded before ST, the Reds may already have concluded he's another Dickerson and best used as trade bait).

IMO if Walt has a very limited budget then Gomes, Lewis, Renteria, Cairo, Ramon, etc is a better way to spend it than by trading for Willingham or DeJesus. In the latter scenarion the Reds bench is AAAA guys like Corky Miller, reclamation projects like Hermida or guys like Cozart who the team feels need more time to develop. plus there is no depth at AAA. it reminds me a bit of Reds teams in the past. i said in a different thread that i feel Walt has done a fine job this offseason considering his budget limitations.

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2011, 10:14 AM
As said before, I am not sold on Lewis as an answer for the LF situation, but it's just a one year deal and I trust Jocketty's judgement and think he has a long term plan for the team. This kind of deal fits into that kind of thinking.

Will M
01-11-2011, 10:14 AM
Yes, if they had faith that Gomes was an everyday starter, I doubt they bring in both Hermedia and Leiws. IMO, this is also a no confidence vote to Heisley, who is going to have to re-earn his lineup spot.

I think we have to give Walt some credit here. He's not dumb. He knows that LF and SS were the weaknesses going into this winter, and he did something about it, without giving up any prospects. If a good trade presents itself, I am sure he will pull the trigger, but he's at the point now where he doesn't really HAVE to do anything.

I agree with everything you state.

I (and I think other folks here) am not sure what to make of Heisey & maybe the team isn't either. Heisey had a great 2009. He was not playing well in AAA in 2010 but got a callup due to injuries. He started off hot then cooled down. He seemed lost at times. Maybe he needs to go back to AAA. Maybe he tears it up in Arizona & everyone concerns disappear. Its one of the things to watch in spring training.

Gallen5862
01-11-2011, 10:22 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Reds Sign Fred Lewis


Lewis has less than four years of big league service time, so the Reds can keep him through 2013 by offering arbitration.

OnBaseMachine
01-11-2011, 10:39 AM
Good.

I'd much rather have Lewis at his age/price than Podsednik at his age/price.

I still have faith in Heisey and Sappelt though.

Agreed. I preferred Lewis over Podsednik too. He's younger and has more pop in his bat.

lollipopcurve
01-11-2011, 10:43 AM
IMO if Walt has a very limited budget then Gomes, Lewis, Renteria, Cairo, Ramon, etc is a better way to spend it than by trading for Willingham or DeJesus. In the latter scenarion the Reds bench is AAAA guys like Corky Miller, reclamation projects like Hermida or guys like Cozart who the team feels need more time to develop.

Exactly.

RedsManRick
01-11-2011, 10:56 AM
As said before, I am not sold on Lewis as an answer for the LF situation, but it's just a one year deal and I trust Jocketty's judgement and think he has a long term plan for the team. This kind of deal fits into that kind of thinking.

I'm not sure that anybody views as "the answer", if that means a long term solution. But as a short term solution and with 2 team options (arb years), it's not bad.

Hoosier Red
01-11-2011, 11:02 AM
I thought Gomes got a little rest late last year because of injury. Not enough to put him on the DL, but enough to give him quite a few days off.

So now the Reds know he doesn't need 500+ PA's? after giving him 500+ PA's? ok that is possible.

But I don't think it is likely.

IF this is a strict platoon, fine. It does upgrade the leadoff spot. However, the Reds scored 106 runs from the leadoff spot, 7th in the NL 12 behind league leader Florida. A better OBP would be great there. I'm not sure how much difference 12 runs over the course of a season makes, given the power of this offense. (Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Stubbs)

I think the idea was always to have Gomes be a platoon player. Two things changed that. 1) He was so ridiculously hot in May and even a little in to June that it made sense to play him against LHP and RHP just to see if he could keep it up, and 2) Dickerson was hurt, on the DL starting at the end of April, Nix was struggling(a sub .500 OPS from middle of May to the middle of July) and Heisey- also right handed- didn't play particularly well when he started. Also important to note that Bruce and Stubbs were scuffling at the same time so there were a few chances where Dusty was trying to give each of them a break.
With that said, the Reds didn't really have a lot of OF options better than Gomes last year. This year I hope they do.

Scrap Irony
01-11-2011, 11:33 AM
I thought Gomes got a little rest late last year because of injury. Not enough to put him on the DL, but enough to give him quite a few days off.

In 2009, Gomes dropped a near 900 OPS on the Reds (including an 849 OPS against RH), hitting RH for the first time in his career. That Baker stuck with him in April instead of platooning him makes sense, especially considering the needs of the Red offense.

In May, he really caught fire, becoming not only a Red offensive leader, but, or a short time, the NL RBI leader and a top ten OPS slugger. No one would leave that bat out of the lineup. His scorching May only reinforced the idea that Gomes had finally figured out RH pitchers, so, after he began struggling in June, Baker kept with him.

In July, Nix went white hot (after an absolutey horrid first half) and his AB and starts doubled in that month. The only reason Gomes played more is because of the five game rest Jay Bruce received after floundering in his own June funk.

From July on, Gomes was basically platooned with Nix and Edmonds.

The reason he got 500 ABs, then, had more to do with his excellent offensive 2009, his teammates' struggles, and his teammates' injuries.



So now the Reds know he doesn't need 500+ PA's? after giving him 500+ PA's? ok that is possible.

But I don't think it is likely.


Jocketty signed Hermida to a minor league invite even though Louisville doesn't really need him. He then signed Fred Lewis, who started last season in Toronto.

He talked about the need to add a LH bat to the mix. That LH bat isn't going to play in front of Bruce or Stubbs. Those ABs have to come from Gomes.



IF this is a strict platoon, fine. It does upgrade the leadoff spot. However, the Reds scored 106 runs from the leadoff spot, 7th in the NL 12 behind league leader Florida. A better OBP would be great there. I'm not sure how much difference 12 runs over the course of a season makes, given the power of this offense. (Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Stubbs)

You can't assume Votto, Rolen, Gomes (hello, irony), and Bruce will knock in as many guys with two out hits as they did last season. (Leading the league, IIRC, by a wide margin.) More guys on base mean an easier time scoring runs.

Red leadoff hitter OBP was less than 330 in 2010. If Lewis can OBP at career averages (around 350), he adds serious value (around 1.5 wins over the course of a season) just as a leadoff hitter. Add in his better defense (half a win improvement from a full season of Gomes) and you're talking a two-win improvement from last season.

(BTW, 12 runs is typically couted as around a win and two-tenths.)

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2011, 11:54 AM
I'm not sure that anybody views as "the answer", if that means a long term solution. But as a short term solution and with 2 team options (arb years), it's not bad.

I'm not as "giddy" about Lewis, as some seem to be, but I agree with the last part of your post. The stats, that a lot of people like, seem to be there but he has quite a few warts to go along with it. I hope he proves himself in Cincinnati. That would be a good thing. He's always had the athletic tools to be a good major league player.

Edd Roush
01-11-2011, 01:29 PM
I'm not as "giddy" about Lewis, as some seem to be, but I agree with the last part of your post. The stats, that a lot of people like, seem to be there but he has quite a few warts to go along with it. I hope he proves himself in Cincinnati. That would be a good thing. He's always had the athletic tools to be a good major league player.

Randy, what particular warts are you worried about? His weak arm? His lack of power from a corner outfielder? I am just trying to grasp what kind of downside is present with Lewis. Thanks.

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2011, 02:43 PM
I know that the stat guys love Lewis. Good OBP, patient at bats and will take a walk etc. He seems to be athletic, with good speed, but hasn't used it to better himself in the categories where speed can be a plus, one of them being defense. Reputation for bad routes to the ball. Guys with the kind of tools Lewis has should be able to work at defense and make themselves good outfielders, but you gotta want to. He strikes out a lot, despite having little power for a corner outfielder. The Reds need a leadoff type guy, and it's great that Lewis will take a walk, but in my opinion, nobody is going to pitch around Fred Lewis to get to the Reds 2, 3, and 4 hitters. He will have to put the ball in play and hit at a decent clip to be a fit at the top. I hope he can do that.

Another thing that bothers me is despite those stats that message board guys love, neither the Giants nor the Blue Jays have seen fit to keep the guy around. He is no spring chicken either. The good thing is that he is not breaking the bank, is not signed to a multi-year deal, and the Reds have Gomes, Heisey, and Hermida should it not work. I hope he turns a corner and makes Jocketty look like a genius. He has the tools. I hope it's a good fit for Lewis and the Reds.

Will M
01-11-2011, 02:55 PM
Lewis seems to be a guy who has a little pop in the bat, but not enough for a true corner outfielder. has a little speed, but despite the speed can't really play CF. seems like a classic tweener. it seems he will fit the Reds needs of finding a LH bat to pair with Gomes until a loger term solution for left field can be found.

i was thinking of an ex Red who might be comparable to Lewis & I thought of Michael Tucker. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckemi01.shtml

RedsManRick
01-11-2011, 05:33 PM
I know that the stat guys love Lewis. Good OBP, patient at bats and will take a walk etc. He seems to be athletic, with good speed, but hasn't used it to better himself in the categories where speed can be a plus, one of them being defense. Reputation for bad routes to the ball. Guys with the kind of tools Lewis has should be able to work at defense and make themselves good outfielders, but you gotta want to. He strikes out a lot, despite having little power for a corner outfielder. The Reds need a leadoff type guy, and it's great that Lewis will take a walk, but in my opinion, nobody is going to pitch around Fred Lewis to get to the Reds 2, 3, and 4 hitters. He will have to put the ball in play and hit at a decent clip to be a fit at the top. I hope he can do that.

Another thing that bothers me is despite those stats that message board guys love, neither the Giants nor the Blue Jays have seen fit to keep the guy around. He is no spring chicken either. The good thing is that he is not breaking the bank, is not signed to a multi-year deal, and the Reds have Gomes, Heisey, and Hermida should it not work. I hope he turns a corner and makes Jocketty look like a genius. He has the tools. I hope it's a good fit for Lewis and the Reds.

I think you might be up against a bit of a straw-man here, Randy. Your critique seems predicated on a belief that some people see Lewis as a major addition that significantly impacts our chances to win this year and in to the future. I don't think many of us, if any, "love" him that much. Your assessment focus on the fact that his production does not live up to his skill set, on what he's not rather than on what he is and how he meets the Reds' needs.

He is not a long term solution for LF. He's not that guy I wanted us to pursue back in November. But given where we're at today, with Jonny Gomes in desperate need for a platoon partner and Jeremy Hermida the best current in house option, Lewis is a solid, budget friendly compliment to the roster. Lewis got plenty of warts, as you've highlighted. His speed is wasted both in the field and on the bases. He strikes out too much. He may not have the greatest attitude. However, instead of focusing on the player we wish he could be given his natural talents, let's look at the player he is.

While not a good defender, he's certainly better than Gomes. While not the ideal middle of the order type you'd like in LF, he's not bad at all against righties (.280/.354/.442) and better across the board than Gomes (.233/.309/.438). On balance, he was offensively equal to Gomes last year (.331 wOBA to .330). That OBP is especially useful for a team that got a collective .306 OBP out of its leadoff hitters last year. I don't care if they aren't pitching around him - his contact rate isn't great, but he's been batting leadoff most of his career, so I don't see why we should expect significantly different results in 2011.

When most of us say that we're excited about the move or happy about the signing, I don't think that should be taken as we think it's the best possible long term move. Rather, it's that the Reds are a better team today than they were 5 days ago and it didn't cost much at all to make it happen.

Hoosier Red
01-11-2011, 05:45 PM
Lewis seems to be a guy who has a little pop in the bat, but not enough for a true corner outfielder. has a little speed, but despite the speed can't really play CF. seems like a classic tweener.


It's things like this where I think Jocketty excels in building the team to sort of complete each other rather than a stereotypical X position needs these traits and Y position needs these traits.

For instance, A team generally wants a Center Fielder who can lead off, get on base a whole lot, and generally to be a spark to the top of the order. A team generally wants a Left Fielder who can be a big bopper, and hit at least 20 home runs. He may not be great defensively, but you can bat him anywhere from 3rd to 6th and let him drive in runs by the bunches.

The Reds have a Centerfielder who while very fast, is not really the prototypical lead off hitter. He doesn't get on base as much as you'd like, but he can hit home runs, and he can drive in guys if he's batting in the 5th or 6th hole.
In Lewis the Reds have a Left Fielder who's not a great defender, but can lead off pretty well. He'll get on base, but won't hit a lot of home runs.

In this way, the Reds have the relative strengths and weaknesses covered, just in ways you wouldn't expect. I think it speaks well of Dusty that he allowed Stubbs to blossom as a 7th hitter last year and didn't try to keep pounding square peg(Stubbs) into a round hole(Leadoff hitter)

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2011, 06:24 PM
I think you might be up against a bit of a straw-man here, Randy. Your critique seems predicated on a belief that some people see Lewis as a major addition that significantly impacts our chances to win this year and in to the future. I don't think many of us, if any, "love" him that much. Your assessment focus on the fact that his production does not live up to his skill set, on what he's not rather than on what he is and how he meets the Reds' needs.

He is not a long term solution for LF. He's not that guy I wanted us to pursue back in November. But given where we're at today, with Jonny Gomes in desperate need for a platoon partner and Jeremy Hermida the best current in house option, Lewis is a solid, budget friendly compliment to the roster. Lewis got plenty of warts, as you've highlighted. His speed is wasted both in the field and on the bases. He strikes out too much. He may not have the greatest attitude. However, instead of focusing on the player we wish he could be given his natural talents, let's look at the player he is.

While not a good defender, he's certainly better than Gomes. While not the ideal middle of the order type you'd like in LF, he's not bad at all against righties (.280/.354/.442) and better across the board than Gomes (.233/.309/.438). On balance, he was offensively equal to Gomes last year (.331 wOBA to .330). That OBP is especially useful for a team that got a collective .306 OBP out of its leadoff hitters last year. I don't care if they aren't pitching around him - his contact rate isn't great, but he's been batting leadoff most of his career, so I don't see why we should expect significantly different results in 2011.

When most of us say that we're excited about the move or happy about the signing, I don't think that should be taken as we think it's the best possible long term move. Rather, it's that the Reds are a better team today than they were 5 days ago and it didn't cost much at all to make it happen.

Thanks for filling me in.

mth123
01-11-2011, 06:41 PM
I just counted and it's right at 40 players. Don't see any mention under transactions of anyone being dropped.

I see that now. In my rush to cut Danny Rae, I actually had him on my list twice.

Mario-Rijo
01-11-2011, 07:00 PM
I would like to add that I think Dusty will be a good influence for Lewis. I definitely have my issues with the way Dusty does some things but what I have always liked about him since he has been here is he does a pretty good job of getting the best out of his players. Additionally despite his distaste for taking a walk he seems to have a pretty good grasp on hitting.

Edit* Unecessary commentary.

RedsManRick
01-11-2011, 07:04 PM
Thanks for filling me in.

No problem. I'm happy to step in any time you feel compelled to mis-characterize the view of the "stat guys" as completely ignorant to and dismissive of anything that doesn't have numbers in it.

Orenda
01-11-2011, 07:53 PM
heard the news this morning and was a little disappointed, not because I don't like Lewis, but because I'm biased towards Hermida and hoped he might get a chance in Cincy. Still, Jocketty got good value for what it cost so it's hard to argue with the deal.

Maybe they'll trade Gomes and open up a spot?

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2011, 07:55 PM
No problem. I'm happy to step in any time you feel compelled to mis-characterize the view of the "stat guys" as completely ignorant to and dismissive of anything that doesn't have numbers in it.

That's an interesting reply and I'm really not sure why you felt the need to "step in," as you put it. I don't think that anywhere in my posts that I characterized the views of anyone as being ignorant or dismissive of anything that doesn't have numbers in it. I was asked, by Edd Roush about my concerns about Lewis. I replied to that. I have talked to quite a few stat people that I converse with, regularly, outside of this message board, and they seem to like the same things that I mentioned about Lewis in my post. Those things are legitimate things to like. I will not fault anyone for liking them or pointing them out. Good OBP, patient at bats, good speed, etc. I mentioned my concerns to them, about Lewis, and they saw them as legitimate and certainly didn't react as if I was banging on them for pointing them out. They certainly didn't talk down to me and try to tell me how I should view the signing. I'm not trying to tell you, or anyone else, how to view Lewis's skill set or the signing. I have posted, repeatedly, that Lewis has the tools and that I hope he proves what he can do, on the field, and makes a good contribution to the Reds in 2011. I'm just not ready to say it is a good or "great" signing for 2011 because of my concerns and that at this time, I just don't feel that Lewis is a proven commodity. He very well may meet the Reds needs in 2011. He very well may not. My opinion. Only my opinion. Time will tell. That's why they play the games.

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2011, 07:57 PM
I would like to add that I think Dusty will be a good influence for Lewis. I definitely have my issues with the way Dusty does some things but what I have always liked about him since he has been here is he does a pretty good job of getting the best out of his players. Additionally despite his distaste for taking a walk he seems to have a pretty good grasp on hitting.

Not to mention I think Lewis' comfort factor in Cincy will be better than maybe even he expects it to be. The Reds being a more racially diverse team than any Fred has been on. I think that may play a small role in his comfort and when a guy is comfortable he plays his best IMO.

I think that is one thing that may be a plus for Lewis in Cincinnati.

Plus Plus
01-11-2011, 08:45 PM
No problem. I'm happy to step in any time you feel compelled to mis-characterize the view of the "stat guys" as completely ignorant to and dismissive of anything that doesn't have numbers in it.

I think that statements like this lead to the widening of the perceived gap between "stat guys" and "traditionalists" rather than closing that gap and progressing the conversation.

Matt700wlw
01-11-2011, 09:10 PM
Not sure if this was posted anywhere in here (if so, I appologize)

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=lewis

GADawg
01-11-2011, 09:42 PM
anyone else have a hard time getting excited about a guy named "Fred"? Neon Deion!(screams speed)....Jay Bruce(screams strength)....Cesar Geronimo(just screams)! but Fred Lewis sounds like the guy that runs the hardware store

membengal
01-11-2011, 10:10 PM
Not sure if this was posted anywhere in here (if so, I appologize)

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=lewis

Good gravy, Matt. Had not seen that and had no idea. Thanks for the heads up.

11larkin11
01-11-2011, 10:23 PM
I'll throw this out there. Whenever we get a pitcher with a good fastball and breaking ball but lacking a 3rd pitch, the consensus is "stick him with Soto and he'll be an ace!" Well, we have a guy that was pretty good at stealing bases that can teach Lewis some ins and outs of base stealing, to utilize that speed, as well as routes to the baseball. I'm talking, of course, of Eric Davis

traderumor
01-11-2011, 10:46 PM
I think you might be up against a bit of a straw-man here, Randy. Your critique seems predicated on a belief that some people see Lewis as a major addition that significantly impacts our chances to win this year and in to the future. I don't think many of us, if any, "love" him that much. Your assessment focus on the fact that his production does not live up to his skill set, on what he's not rather than on what he is and how he meets the Reds' needs.

He is not a long term solution for LF. He's not that guy I wanted us to pursue back in November. But given where we're at today, with Jonny Gomes in desperate need for a platoon partner and Jeremy Hermida the best current in house option, Lewis is a solid, budget friendly compliment to the roster. Lewis got plenty of warts, as you've highlighted. His speed is wasted both in the field and on the bases. He strikes out too much. He may not have the greatest attitude. However, instead of focusing on the player we wish he could be given his natural talents, let's look at the player he is.

While not a good defender, he's certainly better than Gomes. While not the ideal middle of the order type you'd like in LF, he's not bad at all against righties (.280/.354/.442) and better across the board than Gomes (.233/.309/.438). On balance, he was offensively equal to Gomes last year (.331 wOBA to .330). That OBP is especially useful for a team that got a collective .306 OBP out of its leadoff hitters last year. I don't care if they aren't pitching around him - his contact rate isn't great, but he's been batting leadoff most of his career, so I don't see why we should expect significantly different results in 2011.

When most of us say that we're excited about the move or happy about the signing, I don't think that should be taken as we think it's the best possible long term move. Rather, it's that the Reds are a better team today than they were 5 days ago and it didn't cost much at all to make it happen.The only strawman I see is the one you created with the bolded statement. I don't see that coming out in Randy's comments at all.

Will M
01-12-2011, 03:09 AM
It's things like this where I think Jocketty excels in building the team to sort of complete each other rather than a stereotypical X position needs these traits and Y position needs these traits.

For instance, A team generally wants a Center Fielder who can lead off, get on base a whole lot, and generally to be a spark to the top of the order. A team generally wants a Left Fielder who can be a big bopper, and hit at least 20 home runs. He may not be great defensively, but you can bat him anywhere from 3rd to 6th and let him drive in runs by the bunches.

The Reds have a Centerfielder who while very fast, is not really the prototypical lead off hitter. He doesn't get on base as much as you'd like, but he can hit home runs, and he can drive in guys if he's batting in the 5th or 6th hole.
In Lewis the Reds have a Left Fielder who's not a great defender, but can lead off pretty well. He'll get on base, but won't hit a lot of home runs.

In this way, the Reds have the relative strengths and weaknesses covered, just in ways you wouldn't expect. I think it speaks well of Dusty that he allowed Stubbs to blossom as a 7th hitter last year and didn't try to keep pounding square peg(Stubbs) into a round hole(Leadoff hitter)

1. i do realize what you are saying

2. the Reds have the relative strengths & weaknesses covered as best Walt can do with his budget. left field is Lewis vs RHP & Gomes vs LHP. Lewis has a career OPS of ~796 vs RHP & plays neutral defense. Gomes has a career OPS vs LHP of ~878 vs LHP & plays terrible defense. this platoon should be servicable but i'd like better production from the position. for example even if you think Rolen can be a MOR hitter (see below) it seems there were better options for leadoff than Fred Lewis. however all of them were not available to Walt due to his tight budget.

3. IMO one problem with the Reds focus on the leadoff spot is the fact that Rolen may look a lot like a #6 hitter in 2011 rather than the #4 hitter he was last year. If the Reds want to repeat as division champs they will need a 3-4-5 punch where all three of these hitters can OPS+ 120 or better. The complementary hitters hit 1rst, 2nd & 6th. Cather hits 7th & shortstop hits 8th. So IF Rolen can hit next year like he hit last year then Lewis can leadoff vs righties & maybe Stubbs moves up in the batting order vs lefties. Brandon can hit 2nd where he did well last year until the hand injury. However, if Rolen falters then the team has one too few boppers & one too many complimentary players. what could Walt have done if he had more money to play with? maybe get a bopper for left field & plan to hit him 4th. pencil in Brandon for leadoff & Rolen for the #2 spot. get a left handed hitter who can play 2b & 3B and play him when Rolen need rest (maybe 40-50 games) & when Brandon needs rest or is scuffling.
the lineup could have been...
2B Phillips or LH infielder
3B Rolen or LH infielder
1B Votto (L)
LF bopper
RF Bruce (L)
CF Stubbs
C Hanigan/Hernandez
SS Janish/Renteria

IMO thats a LOT better than the Reds have now. Again, this is expressing my disappointement with the offseason approach in general. its the budget. with Walts limited budget i think he did quite well. i just wish the owner had upped the payroll more.

Ron Madden
01-12-2011, 04:07 AM
Not sure if this was posted anywhere in here (if so, I appologize)

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=lewis


Thanks for sharing this article with us Matt.

Always Red
01-12-2011, 10:02 AM
Not sure if this was posted anywhere in here (if so, I appologize)

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=lewis

Wow, that explains a lot of negative things I recently read on a Blue Jays message board about Lewis' supposed poor attitude.

It's not attitude; the man is literally still suffering, every single day.

RedsManRick
01-12-2011, 01:33 PM
Thanks for sharing, Matt. Quiet, reflective players often get the labels of bring selfish and/or having a bad attitude . Just ask Junior and Rolen. It's hard to draw any conclusions from the here-say of Jays fans and a single article, but it definitely puts Lewis in a different light.

membengal
01-13-2011, 03:12 PM
Just a heads up, there is a nice little read from sheldon on reds.com on lewis w/ some quotes from lewis. Posting from blackberry or I would link it.

TRF
01-13-2011, 03:14 PM
Just a heads up, there is a nice little read from sheldon on reds.com on lewis w/ some quotes from lewis. Posting from blackberry or I would link it.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110113&content_id=16431812&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

pedro
01-13-2011, 03:35 PM
I have a good feeling about this signing.

membengal
01-13-2011, 03:47 PM
Thanks for the assist, trf, and I sure do agree w/ you pedro. This just feels like a potentially nice blend of team need matched w/ what lewis does well in a situation that may be a good fit for lewis.

TRF
01-13-2011, 03:49 PM
I see Lewis as Alex Ochoa. Or Michael Tucker. Jon Nunnaly? He's better than Reggie Taylor.
He's a guy that is as good or bad as his surroundings.

I think his surroundings in this case are pretty good.

camisadelgolf
01-13-2011, 03:55 PM
I see Lewis as Alex Ochoa. Or Michael Tucker. Jon Nunnaly? He's better than Reggie Taylor.
He's a guy that is as good or bad as his surroundings.

I think his surroundings in this case are pretty good.
Don't forget about Jeffery Hammonds. :thumbup:

medford
01-13-2011, 04:01 PM
Is there any player in the majors, past or present that doesn't have some sort of connection with Dusty? Dude has a story about everyone.

REDREAD
01-13-2011, 04:06 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110113&content_id=16431812&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

Nice article.. Lewis certainly seems to have a great attitude.

lollipopcurve
01-13-2011, 05:20 PM
I have a good feeling about this signing.

So do I.

TRF
01-13-2011, 05:40 PM
Don't forget about Jeffery Hammonds. :thumbup:

I had forgotten about Hammonds.

Teams sign Fred Lewis every year, just with different names. A low risk flyer with a skillset that fills a need. This isn't a special move by Jocketty, as any number of Redszone posters were calling for this weeks ago.

But it is good to know he apparently reads Redszone. :)

Griffey012
01-13-2011, 06:58 PM
I had forgotten about Hammonds.

Teams sign Fred Lewis every year, just with different names. A low risk flyer with a skillset that fills a need. This isn't a special move by Jocketty, as any number of Redszone posters were calling for this weeks ago.

But it is good to know he apparently reads Redszone. :)

I have to disagree, this is a special move. Fred Lewis is not a flyer, he was signed and is going to be expected to come in and OBP .350+ against RHP while batting leadoff. The low risk of his 900k salary, combined with him being under team control makes this a move an absolute steal. It is similar to buy stock options on google at the height of the financial crisis, the odds of you making money is basically a given and it has the potential to make you a lot of money.

Hermida fits the definition of a low risk flyer that fills one need (potential LHB off the bench). Lewis fill multiple needs (leadoff hitter, platoon partner with Gomes, outfield depth and LH bat of the bench when Gomes starts). A lot of GM's focus so much on the starting 8 and the starting 5 they piece together a pretty horrid bench and rotation. Thus far, I can't think of anyone in the NL Central signing a Fred Lewis type player.

corkedbat
01-13-2011, 11:37 PM
I've not made it any secret that I wanted a more potent bat for LF, but I really like what I've read about Lewis and hope he does well. If he goes to the top of the order and can OBP nearly .350 (or better), I will come around very quickly.

Who knows? Maybe Rolen won't suffer the drop off I fear and Mes can catch fire in L'Ville adding some unexpected power to the catching spot, taking up some of the power slack in LF.

Lewis
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Stubbs
Hannigan/Mesoraco
Renteria/Janish

Might not be that bad afterall. ;)

Mario-Rijo
01-14-2011, 12:21 AM
I see Lewis as Alex Ochoa. Or Michael Tucker. Jon Nunnaly? He's better than Reggie Taylor.
He's a guy that is as good or bad as his surroundings.

I think his surroundings in this case are pretty good.

Hey, who you callin' Tucker? :cool:

Captain Hook
01-14-2011, 12:28 AM
I've not made it any secret that I wanted a more potent bat for LF, but I really like what I've read about Lewis and hope he does well. If he goes to the top of the order and can OBP nearly .350 (or better), I will come around very quickly.

Who knows? Maybe Rolen won't suffer the drop off I fear and Mes can catch fire in L'Ville adding some unexpected power to the catching spot, taking up some of the power slack in LF.

Lewis
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Stubbs
Hannigan/Mesoraco
Renteria/Janish

Might not be that bad afterall. ;)

It seems like every year the closer we get to ST the more I feel this way about every deficiency that earlier in the offseason I knew the team needed to address and didn't(at least up to my expectations).Your probably right though.It won't be that bad.

Ron Madden
01-14-2011, 03:09 AM
If it actually came down to either Lewis or Podsednik, I honestly believe The Reds have made the right decision no matter what happens.

VR
01-15-2011, 06:12 PM
375 ab's at a .709 OpS from Gomes in left is one of the biggest areas of potential upgrades for the Reds offense. Let's hope they recognize that.

edabbs44
01-15-2011, 06:20 PM
Question on Lewis...he has a crazy Babip over his career (.348 overall) and basically the same vs RHP .349). Anyone see a reason why this is normal for him?

Normalize that versus Gomes' numbers vs righties (.282 Babip) and is there a difference? Could there be a dip this year for Lewis?

Thoughts?

PuffyPig
01-15-2011, 06:45 PM
Question on Lewis...he has a crazy Babip over his career (.348 overall) and basically the same vs RHP .349). Anyone see a reason why this is normal for him?

Normalize that versus Gomes' numbers vs righties (.282 Babip) and is there a difference? Could there be a dip this year for Lewis?

Thoughts?

Hitters BABIP varies between hitters. Hitters with lots of speed tend to have higher BABIPs as they get more infield hits.

Expect something within his normal career range. The fact that it'a higher than most isn't too concerning. Worry when it's higher than his career norm.

WebScorpion
01-19-2011, 01:01 AM
A couple things from that article stood out to me. First there was this: Perhaps that's a reason Lewis has always played well against the Reds, batting .415 (17-for-41) with two homers in 16 games. That includes a .350 average at Great American Ball Park.

If he can be one of those guys that gets a big boost from our ballpark, this could be a much bigger move than it appears at first glance.

...and then there was this from Fred himself:
"I'm improving with age. Every year, I find something to work on."

I've always heard he was a prima donna...this doesn't sound like a prima donna. Maybe they're confusing him with his predecessor in SF. ;)
Like lollipop and pedro, I have a really good feeling about this guy too. I don't think he's ever hit his full stride...if he can do that this year, he may be more than just a platoon partner for Gomes. :thumbup:

Ron Madden
01-19-2011, 03:30 AM
A couple things from that article stood out to me. First there was this: Perhaps that's a reason Lewis has always played well against the Reds, batting .415 (17-for-41) with two homers in 16 games. That includes a .350 average at Great American Ball Park.

If he can be one of those guys that gets a big boost from our ballpark, this could be a much bigger move than it appears at first glance....and then there was this from Fred himself:
"I'm improving with age. Every year, I find something to work on."

I've always heard he was a prima donna...this doesn't sound like a prima donna. Maybe they're confusing him with his predecessor in SF. ;)
Like lollipop and pedro, I have a really good feeling about this guy too. I don't think he's ever hit his full stride...if he can do that this year, he may be more than just a platoon partner for Gomes. :thumbup:

I really like the potental of this move. I'm glad Walt went with Fred Lewis instead of Scott Posednick or Laynce Nix.

Often though, I find myself wondering if some of the lofty numbers put up by opposing hitters inside GABP in the past had more to do with our Pitching than the Ballpark it's self ?