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texasdave
01-19-2011, 01:12 PM
NAME SYSTEM GM IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
Arroyo CAIRO 32 202 191 96 27 56 127 4.28
Arroyo ZIPS 32 201 195 94 27 60 127 4.21
Arroyo JAMES 32 209 206 91 28 60 137 3.92

Arroyo AVE-P 32 204 197 94 27 59 130 4.14
Arroyo 2010 33 216 188 93 29 59 121 3.88

Bailey CAIRO 20 114 115 58 13 43 96 4.53
Bailey ZIPS 27 155 155 77 148 63 124 4.47
Bailey JAMES 24 142 148 71 16 62 119 4.50

Bailey AVE-P 24 137 139 69 59 56 113 4.50
Bailey 2010 19 109 109 54 11 40 100 4.46

Cueto CAIRO 32 187 186 91 24 61 150 4.36
Cueto ZIPS 32 191 183 85 23 62 156 4.01
Cueto JAMES 29 176 174 81 23 57 146 4.14

Cueto AVE-P 31 185 181 86 23 60 151 4.17
Cueto 2010 31 186 181 75 19 56 138 3.64

Leake CAIRO 24 147 156 71 20 52 107 4.37
Leake ZIPS 27 168 174 81 20 54 109 4.34
Leake JAMES 24 155 158 71 19 50 112 4.14

Leake AVE-P 25 157 163 74 20 52 109 4.28
Leake 2010 24 138 158 65 19 49 91 4.23

Volquez CAIRO 21 117 109 58 14 58 108 4.49
Volquez ZIPS 19 108 90 44 11 55 115 3.66
Volquez JAMES 32 182 157 79 18 94 181 3.91

Volquez AVE-P 24 136 119 60 14 69 135 4.02
Volquez 2010 12 63 59 30 6 35 67 4.31

Wood CAIRO 19 109 102 52 13 42 87 4.32
Wood ZIPS 30 178 161 72 17 62 147 3.64
Wood JAMES 24 149 135 59 13 52 126 3.56

Wood AVE-P 24 145 133 61 14 52 120 3.84
Wood 2010 17 103 85 40 9 26 86 3.51

ERA CAIRO 4.38
ERA ZIPS 4.07
ERA JAMES 4.02

ERA AVE-P 4.14
ERA 2010 3.94

Projecting how a player will perform in the upcoming season is of vital importance to a ballclub and I am sure all teams attempt to project performances in some manner. It seems pretty straight forward. You project what the players you have under control will do and then work to shore up any projected weaknesses.
I decided to look at how three projection systems viewed the Reds' starters. Most people expect the starters to improve. This improvement would go a long way towards the team's effort to defend their NL Central title.
Projection systems are really just educated guesses so keep that in mind.
I feel the starters - aside from Arroyo - are both talented and young. And improvement was almost inevitable. The resulting numbers did not meet that expectation. I used Zips, James and Cairo and averaged the three.
I looked at the six pitchers that one would assume will garner nearly all of the team's starts. Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, Leake, Volquez and Wood.
Of these six pitchers only one showed projected improvement - Edinson Volquez. Two stayed about the same - Homer Bailey and Mike Leake. And three took a step backwards - Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Travis Wood.
If you total all three systems separately and compare them to the 2010 numbers, all three systems project these six pitchers, as a group, to not perform as well as in 2010, using ERA as the measuring stick. Cairo was particularly bearish for the upcoming season.
Cairo has a huge dropoff, while Zips and James project a more modest decline.

***Time will tell but I strongly believe, as a group, the starters will improve in 2011. I just thought I would post the results in case anyone was interested.***

JKam
01-19-2011, 06:02 PM
I'm expecting some mixed results, but overall improvement by the starting pitching. By that I mean maybe 1 or 2 of the potential pitchers don't live up to their expectations, but the other 3-4 will perform to expectations or exceed them. I'm looking at Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey to improve. I see Arroyo largely the same. I like Wood a lot, but he could take a small step backwards and still have a good year. Leake I think will be the odd man out and may suffer being shuttled back and forth between AAA and the big leagues.

I find Zip's projection of Bailey the most interesting. Bailey gives up 148 HRs and still has an ERA of less than 5.00. (I know there is a typo somewhere, but couldn't resist making fun of it.)

texasdave
01-19-2011, 06:06 PM
They were all solo homers. :) Went back and checked and ZIPS has Bailey at 18 bombs.
Here are all the ZIPS projections, offense, defense and pitching. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2011_zips_projections_-_cincinnati_reds/

And here are the Cairo projections. http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/2011_cairo_projections_v0.3

Quatitos
01-19-2011, 10:32 PM
I don't think you will see any of these projections predict an improvement for the younger players since they are based off of past performance. So for the younger players, they may have had a rocky first exposure to the majors (Bailey for example 7.93 ERA in 08) or have a year that they had trouble adjusting to a new minor league level (Wood in 2008, 7.09 ERA in 17 starts at AA). We all know these kind of events shouldn't really be counted against these guys but the computer will use that when it makes it predictions. So for these younger guys, I would take all of the predictions with a grain of salt and realize that these guys are working on improving their stuff, getting stronger, and gaining confidence from their success last season.

Nice job on compiling all the projection data up :)

MikeThierry
01-19-2011, 11:56 PM
Texas, I don't know about that prediction site. They have Votto only hitting .301 They have Matt Holiday hitting .296 so I don't know what to think of that analysis.

I always tend to find the Bill James projections the most reliable. Is he exactly right? No but he is generally within striking distance from being right.

That said, Bill James has projected a triple crown year for Pujols hitting .336 41 HR 120 RBI's and Lance Berkman to have a .275/.393/.486 line with 22 HR and 77 RBI's, so he might be a little off this year.