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View Full Version : Late night thoughts.. Give me your best scenario for the bullpen next year.



Cedric
01-20-2011, 03:14 AM
Who you got? Obviously Cordero is going to be back there with Chapman, Bray, and Masset as locks. Ondrusek, Burton, LeCure, or Maloney for the middle relief and long relief roles? I'm assuming Jocketty keeps 7 bp arms.

I'm hoping that Arredondo gets work in and can help at some point. I'm honestly not expecting much from Ondrusek or Smith. There isn't anything more volatile in baseball than relief pitching and those guys don't miss near enough bats to be counted on, IMO.

I think the bullpen could be a serious strength if Chapman, Masset, and Bray continue developing and stay healthy. Getting depth and innings out of actual talented arms like Maloney and Burton could be huge in long relief spots.

corkedbat
01-20-2011, 03:43 AM
I'd love to see Willis thrive.

mth123
01-20-2011, 03:44 AM
Cordero, Chapman, Masset, Arredondo, Burton, Bray, with Lecure or Ondrusek as the long reliever/mop-up man. The Reds could make a spring deal by trading a relief arm or two. Willis could force his way in and I still like Carlos Fisher and right now he has no chance at a spot IMO. I think Burton at $750K and Arredondo at $1 Million, might be guys they look to move. I doubt the Reds will want to pay them that and stash them at AAA if somebody like Willis forces his way in front of them.

redsmetz
01-20-2011, 06:34 AM
Cordero, Chapman, Masset, Arredondo, Burton, Bray, with Lecure or Ondrusek as the long reliever/mop-up man. The Reds could make a spring deal by trading a relief arm or two. Willis could force his way in and I still like Carlos Fisher and right now he has no chance at a spot IMO. I think Burton at $750K and Arredondo at $1 Million, might be guys they look to move. I doubt the Reds will want to pay them that and stash them at AAA if somebody like Willis forces his way in front of them.

I think it's also possible that guys who have also been starters in the minors (and at the major league level too), such as Maloney & LeCure, may have more value on the trade market than in being in our pen. Some club or another may want a fifth starter type or a swing man that they'll pay something, even some decent (not great) prospects, to acquire. Some of this may shake out that way before the season starts.

PuffyPig
01-20-2011, 08:47 AM
I think it's also possible that guys who have also been starters in the minors (and at the major league level too), such as Maloney & LeCure, may have more value on the trade market than in being in our pen. Some club or another may want a fifth starter type or a swing man that they'll pay something, even some decent (not great) prospects, to acquire. Some of this may shake out that way before the season starts.



I'd rather have guys like Maloney and Lecure stashed at AAA for potential needed depth than traded for decent (not grest) prospects.

Caveat Emperor
01-20-2011, 09:24 AM
Who you got? Obviously Cordero is going to be back there with Chapman, Bray, and Masset as locks. Ondrusek, Burton, LeCure, or Maloney for the middle relief and long relief roles? I'm assuming Jocketty keeps 7 bp arms.

It continues to bother me that the Reds see fit to waste a 100+ MPH LHP as set up guy. At least give the guy a full year shot in AAA to see if he can be an effective starter before you cut his value off at the knees.

Heck, I don't even think the Reds NEED Chapman out there -- with Masset in the 8th and Ondrusek in the 7th, I think they've got the back end of things locked up nicely without him.

kbrake
01-20-2011, 09:24 AM
Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Ondrusek, Bray, Burton, Bailey if he doesn't make the rotation. Willis if Bailey does make the rotation.

lollipopcurve
01-20-2011, 09:30 AM
Very surprised that most folks seem to think Burton will be there. Assuming no trades and no ST meltdowns, I'd like to see:

Cordero
Masset
Chapman
Ondrusek
Bray
Arredondo
Willis

I'd rather see Lecure and Leake starting in AAA than logging long relief innings. Having Willis on my list assumes he's throwing strikes. I don't want him trying to figure it in the majors. If he goes to AAA, give me Maloney. He had some experience in relief last year and did OK.

1990REDS
01-20-2011, 11:03 AM
It continues to bother me that the Reds see fit to waste a 100+ MPH LHP as set up guy. At least give the guy a full year shot in AAA to see if he can be an effective starter before you cut his value off at the knees.

Heck, I don't even think the Reds NEED Chapman out there -- with Masset in the 8th and Ondrusek in the 7th, I think they've got the back end of things locked up nicely without him.

I agree. Lets give him a FULL year starting at AAA, get his IP up a little bit. Maybe develop a 3 and 4 pitch and see where hes at for next year.

edabbs44
01-20-2011, 11:33 AM
It continues to bother me that the Reds see fit to waste a 100+ MPH LHP as set up guy. At least give the guy a full year shot in AAA to see if he can be an effective starter before you cut his value off at the knees.

Heck, I don't even think the Reds NEED Chapman out there -- with Masset in the 8th and Ondrusek in the 7th, I think they've got the back end of things locked up nicely without him.

One of the trade-offs of having a successful team, you end up looking more at the bird in the hand at the major league level than the two in the bush in the minors. I think it is a tough decision and wouldn't disagree with either plan, but I wouldn't complain if Cincy thrives with Aroldis back there. And don't forget...Cordero could easily flop in April, leaving the bullpen with a gaping wound. Maybe he is the reason why Chapman will be in the bullpen this season.

Remember, Texas has done something similar with their Chapman.

Scrap Irony
01-20-2011, 11:45 AM
Cordero-- Closer
Massett-- Set-Up
Arredondo-- Set-Up
Bray-- LOOGY
Willis-- LOOGY
Ondrusek-- Long/ Middle relief
Chapman-- Long/ Middle relief

Chapman makes this 'pen truly special. He can come in at any time in the game and completely alter the complexion of it. He'll get innings while learning how to get major league hitters out and working on his third pitch (which was a real plus pitch early in Spring Training and Louisville, remember. It's not as if he can't throw the change; it's that he needs to continue to "feel" it.) He could vey well garner 120-140 IP this season while still being babied a bit. He could also very well match the numbers of any starting pitcher on the roster in terms of K rate, WHIP, and ERA, while affecting 30-40 more games in the season.

This use of Chapman would mean everyone else in the pen has a specific spot that wouldn't change. Ondrusek would pitch on days that Chapman couldn't and as a middle reliever for the sixth and seventh innings.

If you needed a LOOGY, you'd have two to choose from, Bray and Willis. Bray could pitch innings rather than batters, but wouldn't be needed to. Willis, IMO, is pretty much only going to be a LOOGY until he finds a consistent release point.

Arredondo and Masset make up the set-up crew. Both have exceptional arms and pedigrees good enough to close, should Cordero get dealt or really struggle. (Neither would be used in place of Chapman, however, if the starter goes seven or eight innings.)

Cordero is the worst reliever in this particular 'pen (aside from perhaps Willis). That actually makes sense as to his closer role, IMO, as he's going to consistently come in with no one on base and only three outs to get.

Leake and Maloney go to AAA and are brought up as starting depth. LeCure is the third starter in AAA, but could swing to the 'pen in the majors as needed. (And be a decent option as a middle reliever.) Add in long range depth like Smith, Burton, Fisher, Herrera, Joseph, Kllinker, Horst, and Valiquette, and the Reds could very well have two solid to above average major league bullpens.

It'd be a great idea, IMO, to deal a few of these guys for either some major league help or lower level prospects. (My favorite dream scenario is some combination of pitching depth and Gomes or Heisy prying Alex Gordon away from Kansas City.) Apparently, however, they have little trade value.

dfs
01-20-2011, 03:25 PM
Very surprised that most folks seem to think Burton will be there.

I think Burton is as likely to be successful this year as Bray is.

That's not really meant as praise for either player, just commentary.

lollipopcurve
01-20-2011, 04:02 PM
I think Burton is as likely to be successful this year as Bray is.

That's not really meant as praise for either player, just commentary.

They have different roles. Bray is clearly the #2 lefty out of the pen, making it highly likely he makes the team. What has surprised me is that folks are putting Burton ahead of several other RHs -- guys like Ondrusek, Smih, Lecure, Arredondo -- most of whom were ahead of him last year.

camisadelgolf
01-20-2011, 04:08 PM
They have different roles. Bray is clearly the #2 lefty out of the pen, making it highly likely he makes the team. What has surprised me is that folks are putting Burton ahead of several other RHs -- guys like Ondrusek, Smih, Lecure, Arredondo -- most of whom were ahead of him last year.
It's no surprise to me at all, personally. Unless he's cut in spring training, Burton's contract is guaranteed, and he has a much longer history of success, relatively speaking, than the rest of those guys.

lollipopcurve
01-20-2011, 04:18 PM
he has a much longer history of success, relatively speaking, than the rest of those guys.

Burton has not shown any sustained success in years.

Blitz Dorsey
01-20-2011, 05:06 PM
I don't look for it to be a strength or a weakness. I think it will be average. Good at times, struggle at times, OK at times ... that sort of thing.

We all know what we have in Cordero. He is what he is. A middle-of-the-road closer and nothing more. Not terrible; not good. He'll probably get a lot of saves again because the Reds play a lot of close games, the Reds win a lot of games and the Reds have good defense for the most part.

Chapman is the wild card. If he becomes a star, I could easily be proven wrong and the bullpen would be a strength of this team. If he's inconsistent, I expect that to be the case for the bullpen as a whole. He is the one guy with star power. Can he harness it this year? Even though it was a cameo, I was impressed with what I saw last year. He'll struggle with command, but overall he has the chance to be dominant as early as this season.

Masset has the chance to be very good, but I wouldn't say he has star capability. I am optimistic that he will have a solid year though as the right-handed version of the set-up man.

Bray is going to be solid if he stays healthy, but I wonder about his durability. He doesn't have the stuff to be great, but he can be solid.

I think Ondursek is a lock to make the team (barring a spring training meltdown) and the experience he picked up as a rookie will be very valuable this season. If you look at his numbers as a whole, he didn't pitch bad as a rookie at all. Have to think he'll only get better.

From there ... anyone's guess. I would like to see Arredondo make the team because that would probably mean his lightning arm is back. Very intrigued to see what happens there. I also think Burton has a better chance to make the team than some people seem to believe.

I don't think Maloney or LeCure will be used as long relievers. They will be starters in AAA. Also, don't forget the Reds basically go into spring training with a six-man pitching rotation set: Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Wood, Leake and Bailey. Chances are good that things will work themselves out and one of the guys will have an injury or something, but what if all of them stay healthy and look good? One of them will have to go to the bullpen in long relief, or to AAA. I can't imagine any of them in that role right now (not even Leake has some have opined) but we shall see what happens. I just like the fact that the Reds are six-deep at starting pitcher ... giving them the luxury to put a flamethrower like Chapman in the pen. We're talking about the hardest-throwing man on the planet. He could blow up this year. I tend to think it will take another year before everything clicks, but man would it be fun to see everything come together this year.