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View Full Version : Reds Offense 2010 and Cairo Projections



texasdave
01-20-2011, 05:20 AM
Player PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SH SF SB CS GIDP
Phillips 687 627 91 163 29 5 24 97 45 94 7 2 7 29 9 24
CDick 45 39 6 9 2 0 1 4 5 12 0 0 0 2 1 1
Heisey 226 207 30 53 12 1 7 23 17 35 3 2 1 8 1 6
Miller 79 69 8 16 3 0 2 10 7 13 2 1 1 0 0 2
Stubbs 583 529 80 137 20 2 24 57 50 125 2 3 1 25 9 6
Bruce 573 524 73 122 27 4 38 79 49 117 3 1 4 8 6 13
Votto 648 572 86 163 37 2 32 100 76 120 4 0 3 10 5 13
Gomes 571 503 70 116 28 1 28 79 55 154 11 0 4 11 4 11
JFran 59 56 6 13 3 0 3 8 2 14 0 0 0 1 0 1
Nix 182 167 24 39 10 1 9 26 13 43 1 0 2 1 1 4
Janish 228 205 26 47 13 1 4 20 19 36 4 4 1 2 0 6
RazorH 352 315 35 81 16 1 11 47 33 42 4 2 3 1 0 9
Hanigan 243 214 25 54 9 0 3 20 26 30 3 2 2 0 0 7
Alonso 29 26 3 6 2 0 1 4 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rolen 537 474 71 127 32 2 12 66 48 71 8 0 7 6 3 11
Cairo 226 207 30 51 10 1 2 21 12 33 3 3 1 6 1 6
Cabrera 537 490 68 133 27 1 5 55 32 58 1 3 7 13 3 16
WillieB 18 16 2 4 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 0
Sutton 3 3 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Valaika 40 38 3 10 1 0 1 2 1 9 0 2 0 0 0 2
Edmonds 32 29 6 6 2 0 3 3 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pitchers 387 336 20 58 5 1 3 23 11 137 1 38 1 2 2 5

Team-C 6285 5646 764 1410 288 23 214 749 508 1159 57 63 45 126 45 144
Team-10 6285 5579 790 1515 293 30 188 761 522 1218 68 66 50 93 43 113

I decided to take a look back at how the projection systems fared in 2010. I found the Cairo Projections for 2010 and used them. I think the main problem with projection systems is trying to figure out how much playing time a player will receive in any given years. To adjust for this a ratio was created between the number of PA a player had in 2010 and the number of PA Cairo projected. I then took this ratio and multiplied the remaining Cairo Projections to get the numbers for each player. I could not find Cairos for
Edmonds, Valaika, and Sutton so I used their actual numbers. They had so few PA that it wasn't going to make a substantial difference. I also simply used the total 2010 season numbers for the pitchers as a group, because I am lazy and that would have been double the work.

In any case, in the 2009 season the Reds scored 673. I think most people felt the pitching would get better in 2010. But would the team score enough? Surprisingly, the Cairo Projections were fairly optimistic, projecting the Reds would score 764 runs. I think this is probably more than most fans would have counted on. And in 2010 the Reds offense did come alive, scoring 790 runs. If you look down the line I think the total projections are pretty much in line with what actually happened, after adjusting the PA.

Maybe it was luck, but there it is.