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View Full Version : It feels as if the paradigm shift is nearly complete



IslandRed
01-20-2011, 09:24 PM
For so long, it's felt like the Reds were doing things on the cheap. Marge spent some money on the major-league payroll but everything else was, if you'll pardon the expression, thoroughly minor league. After Marge, the major-league club was done on the cheap too.

Meanwhile, Moneyball came out, the analysis business boomed and we lapped it up. We were a small market in truth and in vision, and we assumed the only way we could ever succeed was to fully adopt small-market beat-the-odds orthodoxy.

So then Castellini buys the team, Cincinnati boy but did his owner internship in St. Louis. After a couple of years, he brings in his old St. Louis buddy, Walt Jocketty. Were we about to become Cardinals East? Well, for awhile, nothing much continued to happen. Like a good little small-market team, we were waiting on a wave of homegrown talent to mature.

Then Jocketty shocked everyone by trading for a veteran like Rolen instead of trading away veterans like Harang and Arroyo.

Then the Reds shocked everyone by signing Chapman.

Then they shocked everyone by winning the NL Central.

Now they're shocking... well, not everyone, but many, by locking up nearly everyone in the core for the next three seasons, at least.

The Reds are not a rich team, and won't ever be. But it's clear the brain trust is not thinking small-market now. What they are doing, in fact and finally, is this:

They're running the organization as if they are the St. Louis Cardinals.

A somewhat less rich version of the Cardinals, mind you, but instead of waving turned-out pockets at us, they're rolling up the sleeves and finding ways to get stuff done.

Plus Plus
01-20-2011, 09:52 PM
Hear, here.

westofyou
01-20-2011, 09:55 PM
For so long, it's felt like the Reds were doing things on the cheap. Marge spent some money on the major-league payroll but everything else was, if you'll pardon the expression, thoroughly minor league. After Marge, the major-league club was done on the cheap too.

Meanwhile, Moneyball came out, the analysis business boomed and we lapped it up. We were a small market in truth and in vision, and we assumed the only way we could ever succeed was to fully adopt small-market beat-the-odds orthodoxy.

So then Castellini buys the team, Cincinnati boy but did his owner internship in St. Louis. After a couple of years, he brings in his old St. Louis buddy, Walt Jocketty. Were we about to become Cardinals East? Well, for awhile, nothing much continued to happen. Like a good little small-market team, we were waiting on a wave of homegrown talent to mature.

Then Jocketty shocked everyone by trading for a veteran like Rolen instead of trading away veterans like Harang and Arroyo.

Then the Reds shocked everyone by signing Chapman.

Then they shocked everyone by winning the NL Central.

Now they're shocking... well, not everyone, but many, by locking up nearly everyone in the core for the next three seasons, at least.

The Reds are not a rich team, and won't ever be. But it's clear the brain trust is not thinking small-market now. What they are doing, in fact and finally, is this:

They're running the organization as if they are the St. Louis Cardinals.

A somewhat less rich version of the Cardinals, mind you, but instead of waving turned-out pockets at us, they're rolling up the sleeves and finding ways to get stuff done.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42380

The dreamers and optimists may see this as a faint glimmer of hope that the new owners might have an inkling of what they are going to do to when they are in control. There is a world of difference between the Reds and the Cardinals organizations at this point and time, is it possible that someone from the St. Louis Cardinals could help Reds fix their lingering problem?

We shouldnít be surprised, itís not as though it hasnít happened numerous times before.

OnBaseMachine
01-20-2011, 09:57 PM
Nice post, IslandRed. :)

TheNext44
01-20-2011, 10:29 PM
This team right now reminds me of the 90's Indians. Lots of young talent, with the keys locked up for a few years. Even though the Indians never won the World Series, I would be very happy if the Reds were as successful as the Indians were back then.

Matt700wlw
01-20-2011, 10:32 PM
:reds: Let's go win one! :reds:

GAC
01-21-2011, 08:11 AM
I was listening to a local, yet popular, radio sports program the other day while driving home from work. They cover a myriad of topics, but being located here in Ohio they focus mainly on the various Ohio teams. The discussion turned to the Reds off-season. Now these two guys love what the Reds are doing and think they are on the right track... BUT..... they felt they pretty much are standing pat, with very little improvement in the off-season - I guess it's because they didn't really go out and sign any really big, brand name player(s) - while their competitors within the division (Cards, Cubs, Brewers) have made some improvements going into 2011.

Of course the one guy said the Cards are greatly improved with the addition of Berkman, who he thinks is going to have a MONSTER year. Kinda laughed at that. Rumor is that he will "patrol" LF, with Holliday moving to RF, and Jay becoming that 4th (supporting) OFer.

It's been a few years since Berkman has played the OF, and even then he wasn't that good. Now he's going back out there with two bad wheels? And Holliday has never played RF.

I think statistically the Cards's defense will suffer even more if they put Ryan Theriot at SS. I've read a couple articles making the comparison to David Eckstein, and that he's simply a clone. And while it's true that DE was the starting SS on two WS teams, he had a better "supporting cast" (team) behind him. I currently don't think that's the case with this Card's team.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/article_8279154e-fcea-11df-a01c-00127992bc8b.html

I personally think they are hoping Berkman and Theriot will rebound more offensively, and give them that added punch that will overcome their lack in defense.

redsfandan
01-21-2011, 09:21 AM
The Reds are not a rich team, and won't ever be. But it's clear the brain trust is not thinking small-market now. What they are doing, in fact and finally, is this:

They're running the organization as if they are the St. Louis Cardinals.

Without all the arrogance.

Roy Tucker
01-21-2011, 09:41 AM
What's really nice is that they are running the franchise like a team who is deadly serious about winning. And doing it in a smart, organized, and wiley way.

We ain't seen that kind of thinking in these here parts since the early 90's. This team was lost in the woods for quite a while. I think the winning really does start now.

bucksfan2
01-21-2011, 10:07 AM
What's really nice is that they are running the franchise like a team who is deadly serious about winning. And doing it in a smart, organized, and wiley way.

We ain't seen that kind of thinking in these here parts since the early 90's. This team was lost in the woods for quite a while. I think the winning really does start now.

Bob is pretty much as advertised from day one. He said some things and made some moves that were mocked and contested. But the reality is he put his money where his mouth was. He is pretty much doing what us Reds fans have called on ownership to do for a decade plus. :thumbup:

edabbs44
01-21-2011, 10:24 AM
Yep, I have to agree with this thread. The FO weathered the storm over the past few years and properly managed the roster and payroll. We are now reaping the rewards.

westofyou
01-21-2011, 12:00 PM
Without all the arrogance.

Success is the first step towards arrogance, the Reds are just learning to walk.

Hoosier Red
01-21-2011, 12:01 PM
Of course the one guy said the Cards are greatly improved with the addition of Berkman, who he thinks is going to have a MONSTER year. Kinda laughed at that. Rumor is that he will "patrol" LF, with Holliday moving to RF, and Jay becoming that 4th (supporting) OFer.

It's been a few years since Berkman has played the OF, and even then he wasn't that good. Now he's going back out there with two bad wheels? And Holliday has never played RF.


The Cardinals off season to me looked like a typical Cubs off season. Sign/Trade for guys who have name value. It's arguable whether the actual dollar figures being paid to Berkman and Theriot will correctly reflect their value. However it's inarguable in my mind that the "name value" is way above the "actual value" they're providing.

Because people who aren't particularly close to baseball have heard of Berkman and Theriot, those are good trades. In a name recognition battle, Lance Berkman is more valuable to the Cards than Colby Rasmus. Ryan Theriot(the Chicago Ryan Freel) is more valuable than Brendan Ryan(who ever heard of him.)

Thus "improving" your team in the eyes of the out of town media reflects, signing guys who the hosts have heard of.
The sure fire way to not be any good is to sign your RF to a long term contract when he "hasn't really done anything," or sign a young starting pitcher who "hasn't even won 15 games in a season yet."
That's standing pat and that will get you passed.
In January.
The good news is that games don't begin until spring, and they aren't really influenced by the name recognition of the players.

wolfboy
01-21-2011, 12:36 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42380

The dreamers and optimists may see this as a faint glimmer of hope that the new owners might have an inkling of what they are going to do to when they are in control. There is a world of difference between the Reds and the Cardinals organizations at this point and time, is it possible that someone from the St. Louis Cardinals could help Reds fix their lingering problem?

We shouldnít be surprised, itís not as though it hasnít happened numerous times before.

I really enjoyed your post when it was originally made. Thanks for posting it again - it's a thoroughly enjoyable read.

Screwball
01-21-2011, 01:14 PM
Because people who aren't particularly close to baseball have heard of Berkman and Theriot, those are good trades. In a name recognition battle, Lance Berkman is more valuable to the Cards than Colby Rasmus. Ryan Theriot(the Chicago Ryan Freel) is more valuable than Brendan Ryan(who ever heard of him.)

Thus "improving" your team in the eyes of the out of town media reflects, signing guys who the hosts have heard of.
The sure fire way to not be any good is to sign your RF to a long term contract when he "hasn't really done anything," or sign a young starting pitcher who "hasn't even won 15 games in a season yet."
That's standing pat and that will get you passed.
In January.
The good news is that games don't begin until spring, and they aren't really influenced by the name recognition of the players.

I think this is an excellent point, and dead on accurate. It's also the main reason I don't care much for sport talk radio anymore. Too much fallacious reasoning bandied about as though it were the Word of God frustrated me to no end.

The Reds way of doing things this offseason (and for the foreseeable future) won't involve anything sexy. Their moves will barely get a mention on Sportscenter, and as a result will be dismissed with a wave of the hand by 90% of the talking heads you'll find on AM radio. But the foundation they're laying and continuing to build upon is going to build a consistent winner for the next several years, IMO. It's an exciting time to be a Reds fan, and after having to put up the slop we just endured for the last 10 years, I have a hard time thinking of a more deserving fan base.

Roy Tucker
01-21-2011, 01:37 PM
Having said all this and drank the kool aid and sang Kumbaya, as soon as the Reds start to lose, all of these warm and fuzzies will melt away and RZ will go bonkers again. We're baseball fans, we can't help it.

;)

RedEye
01-21-2011, 02:05 PM
I certainly share some of this optimism, but I'm not ready to proclaim all of this a success just yet. A whole heck of a lot went just right to make this team a 91-win team in 2010, and it probably won't all happen like that again in 2011. I think the team still has reason to believe that a lot of its young players to improve going forward (Bruce, Stubbs, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman, etc.) and it has more depth in the minors than at any time I can remember. But that next step--to consistent, formidable winner--is a steep one. I'm excited to see whether they can do it.

Ghosts of 1990
01-21-2011, 02:28 PM
I think we're better than last year; but the division is also better. I could see us winning 88 and finishing third but still being really good. I don't think we're going to make the playoffs this year. But we're definitely going to have a say in things. Teams aren't going to get fat off the Cincinnati Reds in 2011. It's a good feeling. We're in the mix.

REDREAD
01-21-2011, 03:00 PM
The Reds did pretty good this offseason.. They didn't add any sure things, but Lewis/Hermida should give a boost.. In all honesty, even with economics aside,
a platoon of Gomes/Lewis has a great chance to outproduce Berkman, especially when defense is factored in.

I agree that some regression from last year should be expected, but the Reds have potential reinforcements in Lewis, Hermedia, Willis, Chapman. If Renturia stays healthy, he probably outproduces OCab. Janish and the young pitchers all have another year of experience. There's plenty of room for growth to offset the loss of Rhodes and the possible regression of a couple players.

Walt has made this incredibly deep. Over the course of the season, this is going to give us the edge over StL and Mil.

GAC
01-22-2011, 05:27 AM
I look at it this way.....

We won the division last year, and the other guys didn't, so they are the ones who have to try and make those moves to improve and catch us. Now sure, we were a 1st round exit from the post-season, which shows we also need to make improvements (get better) in order to play competitively at the level of teams like the Phillies. But some of that improvement could also be younger players maturing too, and this squad gaining another year of experience playing together as a unit.

But we've kept that winning 2010 team intact for the most part, other then "trading" off OCab for Renteria, signing Lewis, losing Rhodes. But when I look at the payroll they had to work with, the players that were eligible for arb and/or needed to be signed, I think this FO did a good job.