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OnBaseMachine
01-21-2011, 03:21 PM
From John Fay:


But the Reds are working on a deal with Volquez as well.

“We’re looking at both — one-year and multi-year,” Walt Jocketty said. “We’re hopeful that we’ll get something done.”



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/01/21/what-about-volquez/

I would love to see the Reds sign Volquez to a multi-year deal too. I was very impressed with his post-Tommy John surgery stuff, and he really seemed to get back in the groove of things the last month of the season. When healthy, his stuff is ace caliber. I really think he's going to be very good this season and in the future. Signing him now would be a smart move, IMO.

reds44
01-21-2011, 03:25 PM
Is there anyway Mike Leake starts the season in the majors? I just don't see how he fits in.

Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Volquez
Bailey (who is out of options)
Leake

I just don't see how he starts the year up here.

The Operator
01-21-2011, 03:26 PM
Locking up Volquez this winter, if the price is right, could turn out to be a major steal.

I'll be interested to see how this progresses.

camisadelgolf
01-21-2011, 03:26 PM
Is there anyway Mike Leake starts the season in the majors? I just don't see how he fits in.

Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Volquez
Bailey (who is out of options)
Leake

I just don't see how he starts the year up here.
He was put in the bullpen to keep his innings down last year, and I would be surprised to see him start the year there. Also, don't rule out the possibility of injury forcing him into a spot.

reds44
01-21-2011, 03:37 PM
He was put in the bullpen to keep his innings down last year, and I would be surprised to see him start the year there. Also, don't rule out the possibility of injury forcing him into a spot.
They put him in the bullpen after he started pitching poorly. The reason they gave for him pitching so poorly was he hit the innings wall. He only made an appearance or two out of the pen and those were bad too.

I'm not saying they won't need Leake at some point during the season, because they will. One of our strengths last year was the depth of our rotation. Somebody will go down and he'll be needed.

I just don't think he's a bullpen pitcher. If they're going to keep both him and Bailey up here and pitch one out of the pen, Bailey makes more sense than Leake. I think sending Leake down and keeping him stretched out makes the most sense, though.

camisadelgolf
01-21-2011, 03:41 PM
They put him in the bullpen after he started pitching poorly. The reason they gave for him pitching so poorly was he hit the innings wall. He only made an appearance or two out of the pen and those were bad too.

I'm not saying they won't need Leake at some point during the season, because they will. One of our strengths last year was the depth of our rotation. Somebody will go down and he'll be needed.

I just don't think he's a bullpen pitcher. If they're going to keep both him and Bailey up here and pitch one out of the pen, Bailey makes more sense than Leake. I think sending Leake down and keeping him stretched out makes the most sense, though.
As far as I can tell, Bailey only makes more sense in the sense that he throws harder. It's been said that he's hardly a bullpen option due to how long it takes for him to warm up. He has almost zero bullpen experience, and the Reds don't seem all that interested in trying it out, which is understandable since his upside is widely considered to be higher than Leake's. I'm not saying it's impossible for Bailey to start the year in the bullpen, but I definitely wouldn't say it 'makes more sense'.

Kc61
01-21-2011, 03:44 PM
I think Mike Leake will be in the Reds' rotation. Just a belief I have. I think his stuff is more suitable to starting than relieving.

I don't know who the odd man out will be, my guess is Homer, but it's only a guess.

But I wouldn't write off Leake for 2011 just yet. He pitched great before hitting the "wall".

TRF
01-21-2011, 03:56 PM
I think Mike Leake will be in the Reds' rotation. Just a belief I have. I think his stuff is more suitable to starting than relieving.

I don't know who the odd man out will be, my guess is Homer, but it's only a guess.

But I wouldn't write off Leake for 2011 just yet. He pitched great before hitting the "wall".

no he didn't. He had a good May. maybe even very good. but he was lucky in April and stunk it up in June, July...

No SP should hit a wall the first week of June.

A year in AAA should help him understand pitching at a high level better.

redsfandan
01-21-2011, 03:57 PM
I think Mike Leake will be in the Reds' rotation. Just a belief I have. I think his stuff is more suitable to starting than relieving.

I don't know who the odd man out will be, my guess is Homer, but it's only a guess.

But I wouldn't write off Leake for 2011 just yet. He pitched great before hitting the "wall".
Leake will be either in the rotation, traded, or starting in AAA. My bet is starting in AAA until they need him.


Now, back to the thread topic (how'd it veer off so quickly?), this could be an opportunity for the Reds to buy low on Volquez. With the way this offseason has gone I wouldn't be surprised by another multi-year deal.

MikeS21
01-21-2011, 03:59 PM
So, did Leake "hit the wall" or did batters just figure him out?

camisadelgolf
01-21-2011, 04:30 PM
So, did Leake "hit the wall" or did batters just figure him out?
I think it's both combined with regressing to the mean. He was pretty lucky early in the season.

edabbs44
01-21-2011, 04:45 PM
This is one that scares me.

reds44
01-21-2011, 04:45 PM
I think it's both combined with regressing to the mean. He was pretty lucky early in the season.
Agreed. Mix of both.

RedsManRick
01-21-2011, 05:06 PM
This is one that scares me.

Me too. He reminds me a bit of Oliver Perez. Tantalizing talent including great strikeout potential. However, always plagued by control issues. Had a great year early in his career which was supported by some good batted ball luck and/or good defense.

High strikeout, high walk guys always scare me because they walk such a fine line. Throw in a TJ surgery resulting from a mechanical issue and color me scared. The guy is high risk, high reward. And that's the type of guy I go year to year with.

TRF
01-21-2011, 05:35 PM
Volquez is listed at 6'0" tall, but I'd put him at 5'11'', making him about an inch or two taller than Cueto listed at 5'10"

Another smallish RH starter that throws really hard. Let someone else pay him when he gets expensive. I'd do 3 years if I were forced, but year to year is good too.

I'm betting Jocketty offers him a contract similar to Cueto's but one less year, and possibly fewer dollars per. That'd be the best Volquez should hope for before the season starts. I'm betting EV gambles he turns in a monster year and takes a one year deal instead.

WVRedsFan
01-21-2011, 06:19 PM
Me too. He reminds me a bit of Oliver Perez. Tantalizing talent including great strikeout potential. However, always plagued by control issues. Had a great year early in his career which was supported by some good batted ball luck and/or good defense.

High strikeout, high walk guys always scare me because they walk such a fine line. Throw in a TJ surgery resulting from a mechanical issue and color me scared. The guy is high risk, high reward. And that's the type of guy I go year to year with.

My thoughts exactly.

TheNext44
01-21-2011, 06:25 PM
Me too. He reminds me a bit of Oliver Perez. Tantalizing talent including great strikeout potential. However, always plagued by control issues. Had a great year early in his career which was supported by some good batted ball luck and/or good defense.

High strikeout, high walk guys always scare me because they walk such a fine line. Throw in a TJ surgery resulting from a mechanical issue and color me scared. The guy is high risk, high reward. And that's the type of guy I go year to year with.

And then add in a drug suspension, which means that he could miss a whole season with another failed test, and then suspended for life with a third failed test. A long term contract for Volquez is about as risky as one can be.

The Operator
01-21-2011, 06:30 PM
And then add in a drug suspension, which means that he could miss a whole season with another failed test, and then suspended for life with a third failed test. A long term contract for Volquez is about as risky as one can be.
The Reds don't have to pay him during a suspension, however.

WebScorpion
01-21-2011, 07:40 PM
I have faith that Walt knows how to quantify Volquez's value...I'm not too worried about the contract. I'd like to see as many players signed long-term as they can afford...I just wouldn't put a no-trade clause in many of them.

Pre-injury Volquez had a sweet fastball with late movement and a change-up that could buckle the knees of even veteran ML hitters. I thought his third pitch was a slider though...or is my memory faulty?
Post-injury he came out with a nasty hammer that dropped off the table...where did that come from? Has he always had a curve, but polished it up during rehab? I don't know, but once he gets his location back to normal, (which comes with repetition,) he will be better than he has ever been. I'd call that 3 plus pitches, and he shows signs of a true ace...he continues to change his repertoire and works on his pitches even when they aren't game ready. I liked that about Bailey too when he added the sinker...I hope he continues to work on other things too. It could be a real pitcher's culture around Cincy, with all the young guys learning from each other and trying different things out. It could get real nasty for hitters in the NL Central. :D

I SO love going into a season with too many qualified starters. Whoever has the hardest time knocking the rust off should start in AAA. I'm sure we'll need them at some point. I just never thought I'd see this day... abundant starting pitching in Cincinnati! Who'da thunk it? :beerme:

pedro
01-21-2011, 07:59 PM
I'd put the odds of Volquez failing another test for PED's at about zero. There are certainly risks with him but I don't think that is one of them. He may have intentionally taken something to aid his recovery, or maybe his story is the truth, but I don't think he was the typical juicer.

OnBaseMachine
01-21-2011, 08:17 PM
I'd put the odds of Volquez failing another test for PED's at about zero. There are certainly risks with him but I don't think that is one of them. He may have intentionally taken something to aid his recovery, or maybe his story is the truth, but I don't think he was the typical juicer.

I agree 100%.

Danny Serafini
01-22-2011, 02:23 AM
I'm betting EV gambles he turns in a monster year and takes a one year deal instead.

That's what I would bet on. Signing long term now would be buying low, if he's confident in his abilities then it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for him.

REDREAD
01-24-2011, 05:01 PM
This is one that scares me.

Yes, I doubt Volquez would be willing to sign a long year deal for the $$ that I would be willing to risk.

The guy has flashes of brilliance and has talent, but his lack of consistency is maddening. He's the type of guy that could be an ace pitcher or a journeyman in 2 years.

I wouldn't want to risk more than 3-4 million/year on him in a multiyear deal. Doubt that Volquez would agree to that.

muddie
01-24-2011, 05:39 PM
Yes, I doubt Volquez would be willing to sign a long year deal for the $$ that I would be willing to risk.

The guy has flashes of brilliance and has talent, but his lack of consistency is maddening. He's the type of guy that could be an ace pitcher or a journeyman in 2 years.

I wouldn't want to risk more than 3-4 million/year on him in a multiyear deal. Doubt that Volquez would agree to that.

Agreed. I would be cautious with this guy.

Cedric
01-24-2011, 05:47 PM
I think this is the perfect time to sign Volquez long term. He has the best pure talent of any starter on the roster and yet is at his lowest value point.

The Reds can use his failed test in bargaining an even better long term deal. The Reds don't have anyone other than maybe Chapman that could reach his ceiling.

Griffey012
01-24-2011, 07:43 PM
I would be all for a deal along the lines of 4 yrs $20 million. 2,4,6,8 over the next 4 seasons with some pretty hefty incentives that if they were hit along the way would bump ump the salary during his final season.

Ron Madden
01-25-2011, 04:27 AM
In my humble opinion, Edinson Volquez is the most under rated and least appreciated Pitcher on the Reds pitching staff. (according to the fans)

bucksfan2
01-25-2011, 08:34 AM
In my humble opinion, Edinson Volquez is the most under rated and least appreciated Pitcher on the Reds pitching staff. (according to the fans)

One Tommy John Surgery
One PED Suspension
One Game 1 shellacking
One good half of the season

IMO Volquez is one of the most overrated pitchers in the Reds organization.

edabbs44
01-25-2011, 08:37 AM
One Tommy John Surgery
One PED Suspension
One Game 1 shellacking
One good half of the season

IMO Volquez is one of the most overrated pitchers in the Reds organization.

I tend to agree, mostly b/c of point 4.

PuffyPig
01-25-2011, 08:56 AM
One Tommy John Surgery
One PED Suspension
One Game 1 shellacking
One good half of the season

IMO Volquez is one of the most overrated pitchers in the Reds organization.

(1) Most pichers come back strong from JT surgery, and if last year is any indication, Volquez will be no exception;

(2) PED suspension? The HOF should be full of HOF'ers who took PEDS;

(3) Small sample size, totally irrelevant;

(4) Only excellent half season; most of balance is injury related, but promising.

He likely has more upside than any pitcher we have.

bucksfan2
01-25-2011, 09:08 AM
(1) Most pichers come back strong from JT surgery, and if last year is any indication, Volquez will be no exception;

That is a good point. Does that mean Volquez will come back stronger than ever? Does that mean Volquez's control will get better? Does that mean Volquez will quit walking batters at a high rate? Does that mean his delivery will be better?


(2) PED suspension? The HOF should be full of HOF'ers who took PEDS;

He cheated when there were clear cut rules against it. No matter what excuse he gave he cheated. It irks me that people are perfectly ok with this.


(3) Small sample size, totally irrelevant;

Absolutely. But it is still fresh in my memory and it is Volequz to a tee.


(4) Only excellent half season; most of balance is injury related, but promising.

He likely has more upside than any pitcher we have.

He also has more downside than any pitcher the Reds have. He can dazzle one day and then get bombed the next. IMO he doesn't have a higher upside than Chapman. And because of his delivery I like both Wood and Bailey better as long term solutions.

Volquez is a huge risk in my opinion. He may go out and dominate like he did in the first half of 08 or he may be the pitcher we have seen since. Not a bad thing, but hardly a guy who you want to invest in long term, especially with the issues he has.

Ghosts of 1990
01-25-2011, 09:31 AM
Is there anyway Mike Leake starts the season in the majors? I just don't see how he fits in.

Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Volquez
Bailey (who is out of options)
Leake

I just don't see how he starts the year up here.

I hope so. But if push comes to shove I could see Bailey coming out of the pen too.

REDREAD
01-25-2011, 09:34 AM
Volquez is a huge risk in my opinion. He may go out and dominate like he did in the first half of 08 or he may be the pitcher we have seen since. Not a bad thing, but hardly a guy who you want to invest in long term, especially with the issues he has.

This is what I agree with. He had a nice 1/2 season stretch when he totally dominated (hopefully he wasn't taking PEDs then). He's been inconsistent the rest of his career.

He's more likely to be the next Ron Villone (who could dominate on occasion too) then the next Nolan Ryan.

I have a lot of trouble guaranteeing a lot of money to the guy, although I do have hope that he'll be better this season, due to recovery time from TJ.

Cedric
01-25-2011, 02:57 PM
One Tommy John Surgery
One PED Suspension
One Game 1 shellacking
One good half of the season

IMO Volquez is one of the most overrated pitchers in the Reds organization.

So let me try and understand this rationale. You want to throw out a half season but look in depth at one single playoff game?

How in any baseball world does that make any sense?

Scrap Irony
01-25-2011, 03:35 PM
That is a good point. Does that mean Volquez will come back stronger than ever? Does that mean Volquez's control will get better? Does that mean Volquez will quit walking batters at a high rate? Does that mean his delivery will be better?


1) Perhaps. Enough TJ survivors have to make it interesting.
2) Control usually returns the year after TJ return.
3) He was extremely effective for half a season while walking batters at a high rate. Other successful pitchers also walk batters at a high rate. That doesn't mean he won't be successful.
4) His delivery is much cleaner now than before.

pedro
01-25-2011, 04:14 PM
He cheated when there were clear cut rules against it. No matter what excuse he gave he cheated. It irks me that people are perfectly ok with this.



Without knowing the specifics of the situation, it's also possible a doctor gave him something he didn't know was against the rules and he took it on good faith that it was ok. Does that resolve him of repsonsibilty? No. But let's stop with the soap box portrayals that he intentionally cheated and therefore is somehow a scumbag.

westofyou
01-25-2011, 04:17 PM
I read this last night, Don Drysdale ate so many pain killers to pitch during his last two seasons (cause he tore his rotator cuff) that the scoreboard was unreadable to him.

Is that cheating?

traderumor
01-25-2011, 06:45 PM
This conundrum with Volquez seems somewhat similar to the dilemma when there was a good argument to try to lowball Dunn after his bad season. The Reds failed to do it, they ended up unable to afford him. LT to Volquez would be risky, but then if they wait and see this year, they may find someone coming off a big season wanting paid and now willing to talk LTC.

This is a really tough call, but I think I'd take a wait and see approach if I'm the Reds and if I'm Volquez. For the Reds, a low ball 3-4 year contract may never get earned in production, which is probably a higher likelihood than him becoming a TOR starter over the next year. For Volquez, he will probably get paid the same for average production in arbitration than any Reds offer right now, so why lock in the dollars that are likely to not dry up and might just pay tenfold to wait.

RedsManRick
01-25-2011, 07:30 PM
I read this last night, Don Drysdale ate so many pain killers to pitch during his last two seasons (cause he tore his rotator cuff) that the scoreboard was unreadable to him.

Is that cheating?

I don't know if it's cheating, but it most definitely enhanced his performance.

Griffey012
01-25-2011, 07:51 PM
This conundrum with Volquez seems somewhat similar to the dilemma when there was a good argument to try to lowball Dunn after his bad season. The Reds failed to do it, they ended up unable to afford him. LT to Volquez would be risky, but then if they wait and see this year, they may find someone coming off a big season wanting paid and now willing to talk LTC.

This is a really tough call, but I think I'd take a wait and see approach if I'm the Reds and if I'm Volquez. For the Reds, a low ball 3-4 year contract may never get earned in production, which is probably a higher likelihood than him becoming a TOR starter over the next year. For Volquez, he will probably get paid the same for average production in arbitration than any Reds offer right now, so why lock in the dollars that are likely to not dry up and might just pay tenfold to wait.

To build on your points, I think if EV has a great season next season, or one similar to his '08, it will still be more risky to extend him LT. He is probably still the same effectively wild pitcher with a great moving fastball, devastating change, solid curve, and a tendency to be inconsistent. The only problem is he will cost a lot more money coming off a good season then he will right now. And his failure/injury rate is likely just the same.

PuffyPig
01-25-2011, 11:29 PM
So let me try and understand this rationale. You want to throw out a half season but look in depth at one single playoff game?

How in any baseball world does that make any sense?

Welcome to Redszone......

Will M
01-25-2011, 11:46 PM
one thing that folks tend to miss is the risk that Volquez takes by NOT signing an eight figure multi year contract & just going year to year with the hopes to maximize his earnings. lets say he signs for one year at $1.5M vs 4 years at $15-20M. the downside to taking the one year deal is that he is a major injury away from going home to the Dominican Republic & having to get a 'real' job. while the odds of this are small they are not insignificant & an injury of this type would be life altering to Volquez. the downside to taking the 4 year deal is that he could be richer than 99.99% of the planet vs just being richer than 99.9% of the planet.

Ron Madden
01-26-2011, 04:01 AM
One Tommy John Surgery
One PED Suspension
One Game 1 shellacking
One good half of the season

IMO Volquez is one of the most overrated pitchers in the Reds organization.

I disagree that Volquez is the most overrated pitcher in the organization.

I strongly disagree with the reasons you listed to support your opinion.

I agree the Reds now have some depth with their stable of young starting pitchers. I really like Travis Wood but the thing that leaves me scratching my head is the fact the broadcast/print media and most fans are willing to trade or give up on Volquez and Cueto because they haven't proven themselves in order to take their chances with Homer, Leak, Maloney and LeCure who are all less proven.

traderumor
01-26-2011, 06:59 AM
one thing that folks tend to miss is the risk that Volquez takes by NOT signing an eight figure multi year contract & just going year to year with the hopes to maximize his earnings. lets say he signs for one year at $1.5M vs 4 years at $15-20M. the downside to taking the one year deal is that he is a major injury away from going home to the Dominican Republic & having to get a 'real' job. while the odds of this are small they are not insignificant & an injury of this type would be life altering to Volquez. the downside to taking the 4 year deal is that he could be richer than 99.99% of the planet vs just being richer than 99.9% of the planet.This is a risk any young player has anytime they don't have a multiple year guaranteed contract. It all comes down to one's risk tolerance level, I suppose. EV seems to be on the riskier end of the scale.

I am curious why he doesn't have a "real" job now? Is it because of the money? I think ballplayers work as hard as anyone, if not harder, to be able to perform at the level needed to earn their keep. They also travel a lot, are away from their family a lot, that's all pretty hard work.

Will M
01-26-2011, 07:03 AM
This is a risk any young player has anytime they don't have a multiple year guaranteed contract. It all comes down to one's risk tolerance level, I suppose. EV seems to be on the riskier end of the scale.

I am curious why he doesn't have a "real" job now? Is it because of the money? I think ballplayers work as hard as anyone, if not harder, to be able to perform at the level needed to earn their keep. They also travel a lot, are away from their family a lot, that's all pretty hard work.

by 'real' job i mean one that doesn't pay 6 or 7 figures. if Edinson (or most players) weren't playing baseball they would make a lot less money. the average yearly salary in the US is ~$27K. i suspect its less in the Dominican Republic.

bucksfan2
01-26-2011, 08:30 AM
So let me try and understand this rationale. You want to throw out a half season but look in depth at one single playoff game?

How in any baseball world does that make any sense?

Ah it was more of just a comment. He failed miserably in his biggest game. It doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things but it was the most recent Volquez thing in my head. So you can strike that from the record as one of my points.

But back to my original point of his one good first half. After that first half it has been a roller coaster ride with Volqeuz. Even with his time in the Rangers organization it was never a smooth ride with Edinson. Sure he possesses a lot of top end talent, but that doesn't mean he would realize it. And you could even make the argument that he was fortunate to put up the first half numbers he did with his high walk rate and propensity to put batters on base. He will dazzle you one day and then implode the next day. All of use Reds fans are hoping he reverts to the first half of 08 but I don't know if that will happen. If it doesn't then give me someone with more consistency and trade him to some team who is willing to take on the risky player.

edabbs44
01-26-2011, 08:33 AM
One Tommy John Surgery
One PED Suspension
One Game 1 shellacking
One good half of the season

IMO Volquez is one of the most overrated pitchers in the Reds organization.

I disagree that Volquez is the most overrated pitcher in the organization.

I strongly disagree with the reasons you listed to support your opinion.

I agree the Reds now have some depth with their stable of young starting pitchers. I really like Travis Wood but the thing that leaves me scratching my head is the fact the broadcast/print media and most fans are willing to trade or give up on Volquez and Cueto because they haven't proven themselves in order to take their chances with Homer, Leak, Maloney and LeCure who are all less proven.

Have people really said that they are willing to trade EV and Cueto because of guys like Maloney and LeCure? And that EV and Cueto aren't proven?

OnBaseMachine
01-26-2011, 06:25 PM
From Joe Kay:

#Reds GM Jocketty talked to Edinson Volquez's agent today, says club has offered 1-yr and multiyear deals. Nothing imminent.

http://twitter.com/apjoekay

Ron Madden
01-27-2011, 03:52 AM
[QUOTE=Ron Madden;2318532]

Have people really said that they are willing to trade EV and Cueto because of guys like Maloney and LeCure? And that EV and Cueto aren't proven?

Nobody has suggested trading both but go back and check some older threads since the end of the 2010 season, there have been plenty of post stating that one or the other should be the odd man out of our depth of young starters.

But I think you knew what I was trying to say all along.

OnBaseMachine
01-29-2011, 11:54 AM
From John Fay:

Jocketty expects to get a deal done this weekend with Volquez. Most likely a one-year deal. #Reds

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

I'm hoping Fay is wrong and it's a multi-year deal.

Will M
01-29-2011, 05:48 PM
one year deal

http://twitter.com/Enrique_Rojas1/status/31478688981721088#

Homer Bailey
01-29-2011, 06:02 PM
$1.6 million. Some folks wanted more years, but as a one year deal, I'd say that's a very fair dollar amount.

fearofpopvol1
01-29-2011, 06:24 PM
My guess is he and his agent didn't sign for longer because they think Volquez will outperform whatever dollar amount the Reds were offering. The jury is still out on that...but 1.6M for next year is peanuts.

traderumor
01-29-2011, 06:54 PM
My guess is he and his agent didn't sign for longer because they think Volquez will outperform whatever dollar amount the Reds were offering. The jury is still out on that...but 1.6M for next year is peanuts.It would be malpractice by the agent to not recommend that. That is what I've thought all along.

OnBaseMachine
01-30-2011, 03:47 PM
From Mark Sheldon:


"We'll see if they're up for doing more later," Jocketty said Sunday from a Reds Caravan stop in Lexington. "We tried to do a multiyear deal. They just wanted to concentrate on the one year now. [Volquez's agent] had a few cases and wanted to get the arbitration thing out of the way."



http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110129&content_id=16531742&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

remdog
01-30-2011, 04:11 PM
In my humble opinion, Edinson Volquez is the most under rated and least appreciated Pitcher on the Reds pitching staff. (according to the fans)

That comment is exactly on the money, Ron. Yet, Volquez has a great chance to turn into 'a beast'.

This summer is going to be very interesting (and, IMO, very fun) to watch. The Reds starting pitching depth should serve them well for the regular season---it's something that bodes well for that type of grind. If a couple of guys grow their game to TOR guys (and my picks are Cueto and Volquez) then, if the Reds make the playoffs, they will be lined up great for that sprint.

Throw in a bully that can bring in a Chapman or Masset and you've got the makings of a Cincinnati chilli three way: hitting, pitching and defense.

Rem

redsmetz
01-30-2011, 05:24 PM
That comment is exactly on the money, Ron. Yet, Volquez has a great chance to turn into 'a beast'.

This summer is going to be very interesting (and, IMO, very fun) to watch. The Reds starting pitching depth should serve them well for the regular season---it's something that bodes well for that type of grind. If a couple of guys grow their game to TOR guys (and my picks are Cueto and Volquez) then, if the Reds make the playoffs, they will be lined up great for that sprint.

Throw in a bully that can bring in a Chapman or Masset and you've got the makings of a Cincinnati chilli three way: hitting, pitching and defense.

Throw in the Rally Onion, and it'll be a 4 Way!

WVRedsFan
01-30-2011, 05:53 PM
I'm glad it's a one-year deal. Maybe it was the result of the TJ surgery or maybe he just wasn't ready, but it looked to me like EV was reverting back to his days in the Texas organization. That concern has me wanting to see what he can do and hope we can sign him for longer if things work out. As many of you know, long term contracts for pitchers worry me.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2011, 07:08 PM
Nicely stated, Rem. The best thing about the Reds' pitching is that it has both monster upside and a high floor.

If only the floor is reached, the team should have slightly above average pitching, a la last season. And a rotation full of #3 starters is likely enough to stay even with or ahead of most of the NL Central.

Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, and even Wood could very well blossom into a TOR starter as early as this season. All have shown flashes. Heck, all four could blossom into aces. If 2010 Bronson Arroyo is your fifth starter (and he very well could be), you know your rotation is good.

PuffyPig
01-30-2011, 07:26 PM
Nicely stated, Rem. The best thing about the Reds' pitching is that it has both monster upside and a high floor.

If only the floor is reached, the team should have slightly above average pitching, a la last season. And a rotation full of #3 starters is likely enough to stay even with or ahead of most of the NL Central.

Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, and even Wood could very well blossom into a TOR starter as early as this season. All have shown flashes. Heck, all four could blossom into aces. If 2010 Bronson Arroyo is your fifth starter (and he very well could be), you know your rotation is good.

I know its not a popular opinion around here, but I think Wood has pretty much a zero chance of being a TOR starter.

He can certainly be a good #3 starter, but I don't see him with that type of upside.

TIme will tell.

OnBaseMachine
01-30-2011, 07:40 PM
I'm glad it's a one-year deal. Maybe it was the result of the TJ surgery or maybe he just wasn't ready, but it looked to me like EV was reverting back to his days in the Texas organization. That concern has me wanting to see what he can do and hope we can sign him for longer if things work out. As many of you know, long term contracts for pitchers worry me.

What exactly made you think Volquez "was reverting back to his days in the Texas organization"? The long hair?

Control is one of the last things to return after Tommy John surgery. It's unfair to expect him to come back and immediately set the world on fire. He pitched really well for the Reds in his final four starts after going to the minors to work on his mechanics (27.2 IP, 8 BB/31 K, 1.99 ERA).

savafan
01-30-2011, 07:42 PM
I know its not a popular opinion around here, but I think Wood has pretty much a zero chance of being a TOR starter.

He can certainly be a good #3 starter, but I don't see him with that type of upside.

TIme will tell.

Really? He gave up 3 hits or less in about a third of the games he pitched last season, including a 9 inning 1-0 loss to the Phillies.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2011, 07:48 PM
I know its not a popular opinion around here, but I think Wood has pretty much a zero chance of being a TOR starter.

He can certainly be a good #3 starter, but I don't see him with that type of upside.

TIme will tell.

Perhaps he won't be a TOR arm, but he's shown enough flashes to be given the benefit of the doubt.

savafan
01-30-2011, 07:58 PM
Perhaps he won't be a TOR arm, but he's shown enough flashes to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Agreed, he's shown more flashes than any of the other young pitchers not named Johnny Cueto.

Ron Madden
01-30-2011, 08:01 PM
I have more faith in Travis Wood than I do in Mike Leake and I really like Mike Leake.

mth123
01-30-2011, 08:02 PM
I was impressed by Wood's poise and fearlessness more than his stuff. Based on that, I'm pretty confident that he'll be successful. IMO, successful means strong #4 to solid #3 range. No way is he a TOR arm.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2011, 08:03 PM
I don't know if Wood's shown more flashes than others. I'd argue each of the four has shown a 10-start streak of ace-level performance. I doubt all become aces, but two or three is certainly possible as early as next season.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2011, 08:04 PM
I was impressed by Wood's poise and fearlessness more than his stuff. Based on that, I'm pretty confident that he'll be successful. IMO, successful means strong #4 to solid #3 range. No way is he a TOR arm.

Perhaps.

If he approaches last year's numbers, he's a #2 at least.

You think last season was a mirage, mth?

Blitz Dorsey
01-30-2011, 08:06 PM
Travis Wood might not be an ace, but he has all the makings of a very good #2 starter IMO.

mth123
01-30-2011, 08:07 PM
Perhaps.

If he approaches last year's numbers, he's a #2 at least.

You think last season was a mirage, mth?

First time around the league. I always take that with a grain of salt.

savafan
01-30-2011, 08:11 PM
First time around the league. I always take that with a grain of salt.

Pitched against the Cubs three times. Pitched against the Rockies twice. Pitched against the Astros twice. Pitched against the Brewers twice. Pitched against the Diamondbacks twice.

edabbs44
01-30-2011, 08:22 PM
First time around the league. I always take that with a grain of salt.

Yep. 100 times yep. Do it over a full season and I'll think differently but, for now, he is still a middle of the rotation guy. In my opinion.

mth123
01-30-2011, 08:29 PM
Pitched against the Cubs three times. Pitched against the Rockies twice. Pitched against the Astros twice. Pitched against the Brewers twice. Pitched against the Diamondbacks twice.

He was never projected as a TOR guy during his 5 years in the minors. IIRC, he never even made a top 100 prospect list. I'm not going to get delusions of grandeur based on 100 innings of major league debut - almost all of it in the second half of the season and a lot of it against teams that were already out of it and playing out the string.

kaldaniels
01-30-2011, 08:29 PM
While we are on the subject. Perfectish against Phillies in July. Shut them down after the Volquez debacle in the Wildcard.

Love his potential.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2011, 08:37 PM
He was never projected as a TOR guy during his 5 years in the minors. IIRC, he never even made a top 100 prospect list. I'm not going to get delusions of grandeur based on 100 innings of major league debut - almost all of it in the second half of the season and a lot of it against teams that were already out of it and playing out the string.

FWIW, he was talked about as a possible ace level arm his first year in the league. He then got hurt and struggled moving up. After working with Cliff Lee in the offseason, he found a new pitch and became dominant afterward.

Perhaps the prospect guys didn't notice, but, then again, it wouldn't be the first time.

This is not to say I think he's a sure-fire ace. I don't. At this point, none of them are aces.

But he has the results you'd look for in an ace and to discount him simply because someone at Baseball America didn't like his build or his fastball strikes me as a poor baseball decision. (Not that you're necessarily doing that, mth.)

mth123
01-30-2011, 08:46 PM
FWIW, he was talked about as a possible ace level arm his first year in the league. He then got hurt and struggled moving up. After working with Cliff Lee in the offseason, he found a new pitch and became dominant afterward.

Perhaps the prospect guys didn't notice, but, then again, it wouldn't be the first time.

This is not to say I think he's a sure-fire ace. I don't. At this point, none of them are aces.

But he has the results you'd look for in an ace and to discount him simply because someone at Baseball America didn't like his build or his fastball strikes me as a poor baseball decision. (Not that you're necessarily doing that, mth.)

I certainly don't think BA is the end all be all, but usually TOR arns don't sneak-up on everybody. Last year at this time, I didn't think Wood was a great bet at all, so he's already converted me quite a bit, but I still don't see TOR stuff. Add that to the fact that nobody outside of hopeful Reds fans seems to either and I guess I just don't buy it.

OnBaseMachine
01-30-2011, 08:47 PM
He was never projected as a TOR guy during his 5 years in the minors. IIRC, he never even made a top 100 prospect list. I'm not going to get delusions of grandeur based on 100 innings of major league debut - almost all of it in the second half of the season and a lot of it against teams that were already out of it and playing out the string.

He was also said to be an 86-89 mph guy in the minors. With the Reds, he was 88-92 mph. His average fastball velocity in 2010 was 89.9 mph, which is pretty good for a lefty. Oh, and he didn't have that nasty cutter in the minors until 2009, the year he posted a 1.77 ERA between AA and AAA. The current Travis Wood throws harder than what was reported in the minors and he has an additional plus pitch that he didn't have earlier in his minor league career. I was very impressed with Wood last season - I think he projects as a very solid No. 2 starter.

Edit - when Wood was first drafted he was rumored to throw in the low 90's but then reports started coming out that he down in the 86-89 range. This year his velocity was back in the low-90s.

PuffyPig
01-30-2011, 09:08 PM
He was also said to be an 86-89 mph guy in the minors. With the Reds, he was 88-92 mph. His average fastball velocity in 2010 was 89.9 mph, which is pretty good for a lefty. Oh, and he didn't have that nasty cutter in the minors until 2009, the year he posted a 1.77 ERA between AA and AAA. The current Travis Wood throws harder than what was reported in the minors and he has an additional plus pitch that he didn't have earlier in his minor league career. I was very impressed with Wood last season - I think he projects as a very solid No. 2 starter.

Edit - when Wood was first drafted he was rumored to throw in the low 90's but then reports started coming out that he down in the 86-89 range. This year his velocity was back in the low-90s.

At the end of the day, he could become a TOR starter, much like Lee has.

But the odds are long.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2011, 09:27 PM
Yeah, it looks like either he found another mph or two on his fastball or the prospect guys didn't project him all that well after a dominant season in 2009. Part of it was the injury from 2007, I'm sure. Part of it was the stinker of a season he put up after that in 2008.

I can see why they may have missed him.

But his periphials both his rookie season and in 2009 scream ace-level stater.

WVRedsFan
01-30-2011, 09:30 PM
What exactly made you think Volquez "was reverting back to his days in the Texas organization"? The long hair?

Control is one of the last things to return after Tommy John surgery. It's unfair to expect him to come back and immediately set the world on fire. He pitched really well for the Reds in his final four starts after going to the minors to work on his mechanics (27.2 IP, 8 BB/31 K, 1.99 ERA).And that's what I meant. His control was iffy, but it resembled his problems in the Texas organization. Hopefully, it is the healing process and not some return to those days. The hair doesn't matter. Mine is longer than it was in the 70's these days. I just don't like to give long contracts to pitchers.

Caveat Emperor
01-30-2011, 09:31 PM
To bring the focus back on Volquez -- I'm glad the Reds didn't go multi-year with him. He still has more than a bit to prove coming back in his first full year from TJ surgery.

kaldaniels
01-30-2011, 11:01 PM
I can't get past this, and it is a good thing to me...

If EV knew his arm was toast/or was having problems with the TJ surgery....he would have signed a longer deal.

WebScorpion
01-30-2011, 11:54 PM
I can't get past this, and it is a good thing to me...

If EV knew his arm was toast/or was having problems with the TJ surgery....he would have signed a longer deal.
Yeah, when I heard it was a one year deal, that was what immediately occurred to me too. Edinson thinks he's going to have a better year than Jocketty can reasonably assume he will. It's a good thing IMO. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-gen078.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

WVRedsFan
01-31-2011, 12:18 AM
I can't get past this, and it is a good thing to me...

If EV knew his arm was toast/or was having problems with the TJ surgery....he would have signed a longer deal.

Good point I hadn't thought of . My hope is he comes back and wins 20 games, but I don't know...

Matt700wlw
01-31-2011, 12:33 AM
This means the Reds avoided arbitration with everyone eligible.

That is a good thing too.



I'm ready for baseball.

remdog
01-31-2011, 05:56 AM
I'm ready for baseball.

Ain't that the truth!

Rem

redsmetz
01-31-2011, 06:19 AM
Yeah, when I heard it was a one year deal, that was what immediately occurred to me too. Edinson thinks he's going to have a better year than Jocketty can reasonably assume he will. It's a good thing IMO. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-gen078.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

I think Jocketty's clearly aware that he may have a good year. My guess is, now that arbitration is out of the picture, they'll still work on a longer deal down the pike. Whether that will occur, who can say. We've still got two more arb years to go.

WebScorpion
01-31-2011, 09:51 AM
I think Jocketty's clearly aware that he may have a good year. My guess is, now that arbitration is out of the picture, they'll still work on a longer deal down the pike. Whether that will occur, who can say. We've still got two more arb years to go.
I agree with that. I think Jocketty is almost certain EV is going to have a great year, but he can't reasonably pay him for that. Baseball salaries have always seemed sort of strange to me. The only time they'll pay you for 'potential' is when you are drafted, and often they grossly overpay. It's gotta be confusing for the young guys coming in because after that all your salaries (including arbitration) are based on your past performance. They won't pay you as an Ace until you perform as an Ace...unless you are drafted as a potential Ace. Weird, huh? http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-confused002.gif[/url]

Ron Madden
01-31-2011, 03:16 PM
It's official.

http://reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110129&content_id=16531742&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

Ron Madden
02-01-2011, 10:20 AM
From Hal McCoy.

http://www.foxsportsohio.com/02/01/11/Edinson-Volquez-presence-to-strengthen-R/landing_reds.html?blockID=401594&feedID=3800

RedsManRick
02-01-2011, 10:43 AM
And that's what I meant. His control was iffy, but it resembled his problems in the Texas organization. Hopefully, it is the healing process and not some return to those days. The hair doesn't matter. Mine is longer than it was in the 70's these days. I just don't like to give long contracts to pitchers.

"Return" suggests he had control to begin with. Sure, last year was worse than in the past, but let's not kid ourselves - he's never demonstrated reliable control. If he does find it, look out - but I'm not holding my breath.

OnBaseMachine
02-10-2011, 03:05 PM
According to this Spanish article below, the Reds offered Volquez a four year contract but he turned it down in hopes of having a big 2011 season and then signing a long-term deal next offseason. Volquez says he's been working out and his weight is down to 175 pounds.

http://mlb.mlb.com/es/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110210&content_id=16608882&vkey=news_mlb_es&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

RedsBaron
02-10-2011, 04:12 PM
175 pounds? That sounds awfully light to me.

RichRed
02-10-2011, 04:23 PM
175 pounds? That sounds awfully light to me.

"Best shape of my life!"

OnBaseMachine
02-11-2011, 01:12 PM
From MLB Trade Rumors:


"Having a good year this season is my mission. Depending on my performance, we'll seek a contract of at least four years with the team," he predicted. "I can't define the amount we're going to seek following the next year, but it's going to be for that quantity of years." And should he have second thoughts, the 27-year-old pitcher (three years older than Cueto) indicated that some manner of offer is still on the table, saying, "The parties remain open in case I want to sign during Spring Training or in the middle of the season, whenever I want."



http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/volquez-rejected-four-year-extension.html

Jpup
02-11-2011, 01:53 PM
From MLB Trade Rumors:



http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/volquez-rejected-four-year-extension.html

Yeah, I'm sure the Reds are open to it, but "whenever" he wants is probably not likely.

OnBaseMachine
02-11-2011, 04:57 PM
This is one of my favorite stats on Volquez: He had the highest swing-and-miss rate among every pitcher in baseball with at least 60 IP in 2010. His SwStr% was 13.0%, just ahead of Stephen Strasburg at 12.5%. Just goes to show how nasty his stuff is.

hebroncougar
02-11-2011, 06:12 PM
I'd have done the deal if I were him........that's a lot of guaranteed money, and he's already had one surgery.

dougdirt
02-11-2011, 07:00 PM
I'd have done the deal if I were him........that's a lot of guaranteed money, and he's already had one surgery.

Sure, but if he goes out and throws a full season and has solid results, he will get a lot more.

Superdude
02-11-2011, 08:07 PM
175lbs?! Why did he feel the need to lose 50 pounds? that scares me

savafan
02-11-2011, 10:28 PM
175lbs?! Why did he feel the need to lose 50 pounds? that scares me

Well, there was the PEDs suspension...

WVRedsFan
02-12-2011, 12:44 AM
Remember when Harang lost that weight? Scary. Hope it works out for the best unlike Aaron's situation.

Superdude
02-12-2011, 01:07 AM
Remember when Harang lost that weight? Scary. Hope it works out for the best unlike Aaron's situation.

Yea, there's just no way to drop that much weight that quickly without losing some strength and muscle along with it. Why not lose like 10 pounds?

Matt700wlw
02-12-2011, 03:21 AM
He is hoping he has a monster year so he can go somewhere else.

OnBaseMachine
02-12-2011, 03:42 AM
He is hoping he has a monster year so he can go somewhere else.

No, he's hoping he can have a monster year so he can sign a bigger contract with the Reds. I don't blame him for wanting to wait. If he has a big year it could earn him a lot more money.

Ron Madden
02-12-2011, 04:21 AM
No, he's hoping he can have a monster year so he can sign a bigger contract with the Reds. I don't blame him for wanting to wait. If he has a big year it could earn him a lot more money.

Exactly. I don't see how anyone can blame him.

.