SI: Jay Bruce leads list of breakout players to watch in 2011

[OnBaseMachine]

From Sports Illustrated:



He turns 24 in early April and will once again team with NL MVP Joey Votto to form a potent middle-of-the-order tandem and the core of what should once again be one of the best offenses in the National League.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/01/20/glicksman.breakout/index.html#ixzz1BhndMsww

I would love to see Redszoners projections for Jay Bruce in 2011. I've already gone on record as saying I think Bruce is a darkhorse candidate to win the NL MVP this season.

My projections:

.295/.380/.540 with 35 homers, 30+ doubles, and Gold Glove caliber defense again.

[icehole3]

I think Jay will hit 40 homers and 40 doubles at least, he was only lacking confidence IMO

[Benihana]

My projections:

.295/.380/.540 with 35 homers, 30+ doubles, and Gold Glove caliber defense again.

I like those, although I'd take BA and OBP down 10-15 points each.

.280/.365/.540 with 35 dingers and GG defense. I'll take it!

[reds1869]

I think Jay will hit 40 homers and 40 doubles at least, he was only lacking confidence IMO

He certainly has the ability. If he does that while Votto also has another MVP caliber season, look out!

[westofyou]

I think Jay will hit 40 homers and 40 doubles at least, he was only lacking confidence IMO

Just confidence?

FWIW 40 HR's and 40 2b's has only been accomplished 34 times in the history of the game.

No Red has ever had a 40/40 season, also considering that the GAB is not a big doubles park I'll be happy with 25 from Bruce.

[Johnny Footstool]

I think his BB rate will improve slightly, and he'll see a big uptick in SLG.

.280/.360/.525 w/ 30 HR

[Razor Shines]

Makes me think of the Cyclone Rule. Jay nearly eclipsed that BB% of 10 last year, I bet he kills it this year.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71867&highlight=walk+threshold

[VR]

I just hope his consistency is improved this year.....no extended slumps will = 30/100.

His defense and demeanor alone are worth the contract.....he's the new mayor imho.

[UKFlounder]

With potential to be "the governor" :thumbup:


I just hope his consistency is improved this year.....no extended slumps will = 30/100.

His defense and demeanor alone are worth the contract.....he's the new mayor imho.

[Big Klu]

I dunno...he's pretty unlucky.

[RedsBaron]

No Red has ever had a 40/40 season

Frank Robinson came awfully close in 1962, with 51 doubles and 39 HRs.

[Mario-Rijo]

.287/.373/.527 - 33 HR's, 28 doubles, 90+ RBI

[Scrap Irony]

.287/.373/.527 - 33 HR's, 28 doubles, 90+ RBI

If he pulls off that line off, he'll get more than 90 RBI. Think 110 RBI at least.

My prediction seems to be a bit pessimistic: 270/350/535. 30 homers or so. Solid season, but not MVP-like. Combine that with a slight Rolen decline (800-ish OPS) and a slight Votto decline (950-ish OPS) and, IMO, the middle of the order will struggle slightly. However, I fully expect the leadoff, number two hitters, and Gomes to do MUCH better (a 350-ish obp, 800 OPS, and 875 OPS respectively), improving where the middle of the order will not.

The keys to the season, IMO, are Stubbs and the catchers. If they can OPS around 800 between them (as they did last season), the offense will be okay. If they can't, the offense goes from excellent to merely average.

[Ghosts of 1990]

will dusty be hitting him 2, 4, and 5 or is he going to be hitting 6th and 7th the majority of the time? If he's hitting 6th and 7th it will just be a gradual increase from last year's numbers at best or possibly a short decline. He needs to be hitting 2nd, 4th (best spot for him) or 5th. The days of Hanigan and Janish protecting him need to end.

[mth123]

will dusty be hitting him 2, 4, and 5 or is he going to be hitting 6th and 7th the majority of the time? If he's hitting 6th and 7th it will just be a gradual increase from last year's numbers at best or possibly a short decline. He needs to be hitting 2nd, 4th (best spot for him) or 5th. The days of Hanigan and Janish protecting him need to end.

The line-up should be Votto/Bruce 3/4. Why give the pitcher a break by separating them? The biggest issue is finding somebody to hit 5th. There really isn't a good candidate. If they could keep Rolen's shoulder relatively pain free by giving him lots of rest, he may be capable for 110 games spread out over the season. That would suggest a guy like Francisco on the other days with his playing time strategically chosen against RHP that he can handle. Its why I really hate the Cairo signing. Rolen and Francisco could combine to be that third member of the middle of the order if the PT was doled out wisely, but at this point, I don't see Francisco making the team.

[Mario-Rijo]

If he pulls off that line off, he'll get more than 90 RBI. Think 110 RBI at least.

My prediction seems to be a bit pessimistic: 270/350/535. 30 homers or so. Solid season, but not MVP-like. Combine that with a slight Rolen decline (800-ish OPS) and a slight Votto decline (950-ish OPS) and, IMO, the middle of the order will struggle slightly. However, I fully expect the leadoff, number two hitters, and Gomes to do MUCH better (a 350-ish obp, 800 OPS, and 875 OPS respectively), improving where the middle of the order will not.

The keys to the season, IMO, are Stubbs and the catchers. If they can OPS around 800 between them (as they did last season), the offense will be okay. If they can't, the offense goes from excellent to merely average.

I say 90+ because I am not sure where Bruce will actually hit in the order if he hits behind Rolen and Gomes I'm not so sure he will get much more than 90, not to mention I think teams will start to pitch around him in favor of Stubbs.

[Raisor]

I would love to see Redszoners projections for Jay Bruce in 2011. I've already gone on record as saying I think Bruce is a darkhorse candidate to win the NL MVP this season.

My projections:

.295/.380/.540 with 35 homers, 30+ doubles, and Gold Glove caliber defense again.


he wouldn't win the MVP with those numbers, since Joey is going to be in the 400/575 area .

[TheNext44]

he wouldn't win the MVP with those numbers, since Joey is going to be in the 400/575 area .

That would be fun. Votto and Bruce battling it out for MVP votes one of these next few seasons.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I think that Bruce will ultimately be a monster by the time he is Votto's age. Bruce is a guy who continues a stead, but slight incline from year to year. I think that he is a complete ball player and his eventual ceiling is Matt Holliday type power numbers with an average from .285 to .295 and a few more stolen bags each year.

[RED VAN HOT]

I would like to see Votto/Bruce bat back to back against some of the tough RHP's. I can't see a manager walking Votto to get to Bruce....less opportunity for a DP than Rolen. Both Votto and the second place hitter would see better pitches. If the opponent brings in a LHP and takes his ace out of the game, that is a sort of win anyway. Besides, Bruce is starting to hit lefties and Votto has no problem with them.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Why do I get the feeling that Dusty Baker is going to make him earn his way out of the 6th area? Someone tell me that it won't be that way. Please?

[Scrap Irony]

He'll bat fifth. Last season, he moved into the fifth spot as he got really hot in August and September. He'll start there this season. The real question is who will bat second v. LH (Phillips, Rolen, or Stubbs) and who will bat sixth v. RH (Stubbs or Phillips)?

[Ghosts of 1990]

He'll bat fifth. Last season, he moved into the fifth spot as he got really hot in August and September. He'll start there this season. The real question is who will bat second v. LH (Phillips, Rolen, or Stubbs) and who will bat sixth v. RH (Stubbs or Phillips)?

Would personally love Phillips 6th protecting Bruce and give Drew a shot at 2nd with his bunting ability. Think of the speed at the top of the lineup the nights that Lewis is leadoff and stubbs second. That is havoc on opposing teams. Gives the 3/4 hitters more fastballs to hit or you allow the running game to take over. Pick your poison opposition. I'd bet my teeth that it doesn't go that way though. Phillips will bat 2nd. It's so Dusty (even though I am a Dusty supporter)

[Scrap Irony]

Would personally love Phillips 6th protecting Bruce and give Drew a shot at 2nd with his bunting ability. Think of the speed at the top of the lineup the nights that Lewis is leadoff and stubbs second. That is havoc on opposing teams. Gives the 3/4 hitters more fastballs to hit or you allow the running game to take over. Pick your poison opposition. I'd bet my teeth that it doesn't go that way though. Phillips will bat 2nd. It's so Dusty (even though I am a Dusty supporter)

Stubbs' bunting ability? You lost me there, Dude.

I'm guessing it goes:
v. RH
Lewis LF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Hernandez/ Hanigan C
Renteria/ Janish SS

v. LH:
Phillips 2B
Stubbs CF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Hernandez/ Hanigan C
Renteria/ Janish SS

There might be some movement during the season, depending on who's struggling/ mashing. (If Bruce breaks out, a la a 900 OPS, he'll move up to the cleanup spot, especially if Rolen struggles a bit, as many are predicting, for example.) And that lineup is within a couple runs of what you'd expect any manager to trot out there, IMO. Can't bag on Dusty for that, in other words. (Well, you could, but you'd be wrong in doing so. Won't keep many from doing just that, of course.)

[Will M]

Stubbs' bunting ability? You lost me there, Dude.

I'm guessing it goes:
v. RH
Lewis LF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Hernandez/ Hanigan C
Renteria/ Janish SS

v. LH:
Phillips 2B
Stubbs CF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Hernandez/ Hanigan C
Renteria/ Janish SS

There might be some movement during the season, depending on who's struggling/ mashing. (If Bruce breaks out, a la a 900 OPS, he'll move up to the cleanup spot, especially if Rolen struggles a bit, as many are predicting, for example.) And that lineup is within a couple runs of what you'd expect any manager to trot out there, IMO. Can't bag on Dusty for that, in other words. (Well, you could, but you'd be wrong in doing so. Won't keep many from doing just that, of course.)

those lineups are exactly what i expect Dusty to do, at least early on in the season.