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View Full Version : What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?



OnBaseMachine
01-31-2011, 03:34 PM
I know we have some Chapman discussions going on currently but this thread is a bit different - what are you expecting out of Chapman this season now that it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he will spend the season working out of the bullpen. I think it will be similar to what we saw in September - low ERA, a ton of strikeouts, and a lot of excited fans.

My projection:

85 IP, 115 K's (12.2 K/9), 3.50 BB/9, 2.25 ERA

I think at times we'll see him get six or seven outs if needed.

OnBaseMachine
01-31-2011, 03:36 PM
By the way, here are the fans projections for Chapman from Fangraphs. They have him making 10 starts.

98 IP, 42 walks, 127 K's, 2.95 ERA, 2.7 WAR

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10233&position=P

mth123
01-31-2011, 06:10 PM
I know we have some Chapman discussions going on currently but this thread is a bit different - what are you expecting out of Chapman this season now that it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he will spend the season working out of the bullpen. I think it will be similar to what we saw in September - low ERA, a ton of strikeouts, and a lot of excited fans.

My projection:

85 IP, 115 K's (12.2 K/9), 3.50 BB/9, 2.25 ERA

I think at times we'll see him get six or seven outs if needed.

I think that's about right.

alexad
01-31-2011, 10:28 PM
14 wins. 20 saves. ROY award.

WVRedsFan
01-31-2011, 10:32 PM
I think he'll be starting some by the AS break. Ten sounds about right. I don't see him getting many saves with Codero around (and Dusty's stuborness about giving the ball to his closer), but OBM's numbers are about right.

dougdirt
01-31-2011, 11:35 PM
Does anyone honestly believe that he is going to get save chances before Masset? Outside of one month in the last two seasons, Nick Masset has been lights out dominant (heck, you can say he has been even with his terrible April as over the last two seasons he has a 2.89 ERA with 156 strikeouts in 152.7 innings). If we excuse his April of 2010, the guy has posted a 2.12 ERA over the last two seasons.

Scrap Irony
02-01-2011, 12:27 AM
Does anyone honestly believe that he is going to get save chances before Masset?

I do.

Dusty can spin it as a match-up thing, allowing Cordero to save face and keep his confidence up. Masset stays in the same role that allowed him to be that dominant pitcher of the past two seasons. And Chapman becomes another face of the franchise.

I'm guessing he vultures 10 wins, has a K rate of around 12.5, a miniscule ERA, and about 15 saves. His control will desert him at times (a 3.5 BB rate seems low to me), but his H/IP will be the lowest in the game. Some votes for ROY, but he won't win. (Unless the rest of the candidates are average, at best.)

dougdirt
02-01-2011, 03:54 PM
I do.

Dusty can spin it as a match-up thing, allowing Cordero to save face and keep his confidence up. Masset stays in the same role that allowed him to be that dominant pitcher of the past two seasons. And Chapman becomes another face of the franchise.

I'm guessing he vultures 10 wins, has a K rate of around 12.5, a miniscule ERA, and about 15 saves. His control will desert him at times (a 3.5 BB rate seems low to me), but his H/IP will be the lowest in the game. Some votes for ROY, but he won't win. (Unless the rest of the candidates are average, at best.)

So you think that Dusty is going to give a rookie "match up" saves over a guy who has been utterly dominant for the Reds the last two seasons? Regardless of how good Chapman's stuff might be, I would take Masset all day out of the bullpen for 2011.

Scrap Irony
02-01-2011, 04:13 PM
So you think that Dusty is going to give a rookie "match up" saves over a guy who has been utterly dominant for the Reds the last two seasons? Regardless of how good Chapman's stuff might be, I would take Masset all day out of the bullpen for 2011.

Absolutely. Masset's right-handed. So's Cordero.

Chapman, OTOH, is a lefty.

Might not mean much in terms of effectiveness, but it would smooth over a lot of possible hard feelings from Chapman (the future) and Cordero (the present) if Baker sold it that way. And Dusty is all about a harmonious clubhouse.

As for Masset's possible hurt feelings, Baker can explain that he's needed in that set-up role and is right-handed just like Cordero.

As to the argument of Masset or Chapman, it's a red herring. I'd take both over Cordero, but it's his job to lose, largely. He could only lose it two ways:

1) Season-ending injury
2) A complete blowup of epic proportions. (Think an 8+ ERA in June.) At the same time, the Reds would still have to be be close enough for there to be a reason to make the switch (even an ineffective closer is more valuable on the trade market than many middle relievers).

dougdirt
02-02-2011, 01:53 AM
If someone is going to start taking away saves from Cordero, based on everything we know right now, it absolutely should be Nick Masset and it shouldn't even be a debate. He has two full seasons of near dominance under his belt, very good stuff and he has been there done that in terms of pitching late in games over a long period of time.

camisadelgolf
02-02-2011, 02:16 AM
Talking to Nick, I get the impression that he believes he's the heir apparent to Cordero. It's definitely a job he wants to have and is really excited about. If the Reds extend Cordero (anything's possible, right?), that could change things, but based on what I've heard from inside sources, Masset is seen as the closer of the future.

OnBaseMachine
02-02-2011, 02:34 AM
I think Masset is the leading candidate to replace Cordero as the closer once he leaves town, but keep an eye on Jose Arredondo too. When healthy, his stuff is filthy. 94-96 mph fastball, a splitter that drops off the table, and a nice slider too. According to Jocketty, he is recovering nicely from Tommy John surgery. I think he'll be a key contributor to the Reds bullpen this season. Another darkhorse candidate to replace Cordero someday is Donnie Joseph. His minor league numbers are sick - 2.40 ERA and 39 BB/145 K (13.4 K/) in 97.1 innings.

jojo
02-02-2011, 07:47 AM
Does anyone honestly believe that he is going to get save chances before Masset? Outside of one month in the last two seasons, Nick Masset has been lights out dominant (heck, you can say he has been even with his terrible April as over the last two seasons he has a 2.89 ERA with 156 strikeouts in 152.7 innings). If we excuse his April of 2010, the guy has posted a 2.12 ERA over the last two seasons.

I kind of get the sense that the Reds don't trust Chapman enough yet.

bucksfan2
02-02-2011, 08:15 AM
I kind of get the sense that the Reds don't trust Chapman enough yet.

The question is should anybody?

Chapman has great stuff and looks great, almost unhittable at times. But he tends to come unraveled when people work the count and get on base. Until he learns to pitch in less than perfect situations (part of the maturing process) I don't think anybody should trust him fully.

GoReds
02-02-2011, 09:19 AM
I think Masset is the leading candidate to replace Cordero as the closer once he leaves town, but keep an eye on Jose Arredondo too. When healthy, his stuff is filthy. 94-96 mph fastball, a splitter that drops off the table, and a nice slider too. According to Jocketty, he is recovering nicely from Tommy John surgery. I think he'll be a key contributor to the Reds bullpen this season. Another darkhorse candidate to replace Cordero someday is Donnie Joseph. His minor league numbers are sick - 2.40 ERA and 39 BB/145 K (13.4 K/) in 97.1 innings.

I'll admit I don't know much about Arredondo, but from what I have seen Tommy John participants take some time to recover their stuff - particularly control. In any case, I don't expect him to be more than league average this year. Next year may be a different story.

jojo
02-02-2011, 09:29 AM
The question is should anybody?

Chapman has great stuff and looks great, almost unhittable at times. But he tends to come unraveled when people work the count and get on base. Until he learns to pitch in less than perfect situations (part of the maturing process) I don't think anybody should trust him fully.

I'd suggest that where's he's at right now is "until he learns to pitch". In other words, developing his pitchability is a need in his development into a starter. Command is a big one too. His stuff is just so good and his contract is ticking so the Reds are in a spot where it's tougher to justify him not being on the 25 man roster than perhaps another pitcher with similar stuff.

Can he learn to pitch against dramatically over matched hitters in the minors? I don't know.

But the Reds are also in a position roster-wise where they are competitive. They very well may legitimately decide they have 5 starters that give them a better chance of winning right now than Chapman. In other words, they;re a bit of a victim of their own success. They may not have the luxury of letting him learn by lumps in the rotation.

Chapman is a fascinating crucible for the Reds in a lot of ways the least of which being just his presence.