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Roush's socks
02-01-2011, 09:06 PM
There is a nice discussion on the ORG about the battle between Leake, Wood and Bailey for the 5th rotation spot. I could see Leake starting at AAA since Wood already has pitched in the minors and maybe has less to learn there. On the other hand, I believe Leake is special and all of the fans dissing him have forgotten his story. The guy can pitch and has success at all levels. So the MLB figured him out last year after seeing him pitch a few times? That happens to nearly every pitcher their 1st time through the league. Then they have to develop another pitch or change up their routine a little. That is part of the cat-and-mouse game of baseball.

The point I would like to make is that almost always one of your 5 starters is going to be injured/arm trouble/ineffective , so what seems like a surplus now will probably work out just fine. When was the last time you saw a team have the same 5 starters pitch 32 games each in a season? Never. The truth is that at some point everyone will get a chance including even Lecure and maloney.

gedred69
02-01-2011, 10:29 PM
Listening to the Hot Stove League tonight, Tom Brennaman stated he thought beyond Arroyo, Volquez, and Cueto being locks, he considered Wood to be mostly a lock as well. I think I agree. That leaves Bailey and Leake, with Maloney and Lecure waiting for someone to stumble. Bailey I believe is out of options, and even though he did well in his relief appearance in the playoffs, he is said to be a guy that takes a long time to "get ready". If so, not conducive to the pen. Leake however, I think could pitch well out of the pen or anywhere asked. Oh well, that's what ST is for. Figure out who can do what.

757690
02-01-2011, 10:39 PM
I think it won't matter much, as all six will get plenty of starts in 2011. Teams usually use around 7-8 starting pitchers a season.

I could see Bailey go to the pen in a Micah Owings type role. He supposedly takes a while to warm up, and long relievers usually don't have to hurry into games. He pitched fine in relief in the playoffs. If he ever learned how to warm up quickly, I could see him as a dominant closer. He's crazy enough, that's for sure. ;)

naptown
02-02-2011, 08:47 AM
The point I would like to make is that almost always one of your 5 starters is going to be injured/arm trouble/ineffective , so what seems like a surplus now will probably work out just fine. When was the last time you saw a team have the same 5 starters pitch 32 games each in a season? Never. The truth is that at some point everyone will get a chance including even Lecure and maloney.

Exactly. There is not a team in the league that does not end up needing 7 or 8 starters before the season is over. What matters is that we have quality depth to get us through when a starter goes down. Not who the opening day starting 5 are.

How many teams in the league wish they had 8 quality starters coming into spring training?

PhatHead
02-02-2011, 09:55 AM
I believe that Wood locks up #4 and since Bailey is out of options ( and barring a trade ) he gets #5. Leake starts the season at AAA and comes up when needed ( injury or trade ). Of course all of this goes out the window if Leake lights up spring training again. If that happens, Homer goes into long relief out of the pen, and we try to make a trade.

Vottomatic
02-02-2011, 10:08 AM
I'd go with a 6 man rotation.

Girevik
02-02-2011, 10:17 AM
If Wood is in the mix at #5, who is the 4th starter? I think it will be Wood at 4 and Bailey at 5...it looked to me like Homer was really getting it figured out twoards the end of last year.

Sure is good to have this problem, though, isn't it? On the hot stove leage last week they were saying that a few years ago Leake would be comming in as the #1 after the year he had last year.

Captain13
02-02-2011, 12:28 PM
I'd go with a 6 man rotation.

I'm not sure this is a terrible idea. Seriously with pitch counts and inning caps, would it be so bad to start the season with a 6 man rotation. When the inevitable injury strikes, you go to five. If someone needs to skip a start with a sore elbow or dead arm (or flu or blister...)it is not a major concern. I like this idea, a lot.

dougflynn23
02-02-2011, 01:02 PM
:) It has to be Arroyo-Cueto-Volquez-Wood-Bailey unless a Bailey trade happens. Leake is an MLB starter, but he needs innings and AAA might be how he has to get them.

wlf WV
02-02-2011, 01:56 PM
I might rather use 4 man rotation,have 2 really good long men,and a Y2K+ Sparky hook.This is opposed to 6 man rotation.

Girevik
02-02-2011, 02:48 PM
Yeah, I'm not a fan of the 6-man rotation idea. It used to be guys would not only pitch in a 4 man rotation, but also complete almost all of their games. In today's era when 7 innings is a pretty good start, I'd like to see a team go back to a 4 man rotation and see what happens.

Vottomatic
02-02-2011, 06:02 PM
Yeah, I'm not a fan of the 6-man rotation idea. It used to be guys would not only pitch in a 4 man rotation, but also complete almost all of their games. In today's era when 7 innings is a pretty good start, I'd like to see a team go back to a 4 man rotation and see what happens.

I'd go with a 6 man rotation and limite their innings to 5. Then I'd overwork the bullpen. :D

malcontent
02-02-2011, 07:12 PM
No one has mentioned him, so I will.

I think Willis could well be in the mix, if not during spring training maybe later in the year if one of the other starters is injured or ineffective.

Krawhitham
02-02-2011, 07:49 PM
I do not think Volquez is a lock

wlf WV
02-02-2011, 10:23 PM
I do not think Volquez is a lock

I hope he is,he cost a lot and had dominant stuff.To me 4 vs.6 man rotation ,is similar to batting your best hitter 3rd.It maximizes their potential,not saying I would go to 4,saying I would not go to 6.

Girevik
02-03-2011, 01:06 PM
Volquez has the best stuff on the team, except for maybe Chapman. No way does he not start the season in the rotation.

Pete4prez
02-03-2011, 02:12 PM
Not for sure if Volqez is a lock, that being said, the fifth spot has to be Bailey, he is out of options.

brm7675
02-03-2011, 02:12 PM
To me both Wood and Leake are more of a lock over Bailey and Volquez..

Girevik
02-03-2011, 04:41 PM
I would be beyond shocked if Arroya, Volquez, Cueto, and Wood aren't inthe rotation. No way is the guy they started in the first game of the playoffs not going to make the rotation unless he's hurt.

lonewolf371
02-03-2011, 08:32 PM
Volquez is a lock.

757690
02-03-2011, 10:48 PM
Volquez is a lock... until he isn't. :p:

Krawhitham
02-04-2011, 02:36 AM
He has had 3 good months his whole career, his 1st 3 months in a new league where no one had saw him before. The 2nd time teams saw him they started hitting him hard, and by the 3rd time he faced a team he was getting rocked. Texas had given up on him, and the Texas media was flabbergasted when they got Hamilton for him. My guess is that he that he started using when Texas had given up on him and the 3 good month we got were due to the roids and the fact no one had faced him before.

so, not a lock

Roush's socks
02-04-2011, 02:52 AM
He has had 3 good months his whole career, his 1st 3 months in a new league where no one had saw him before. The 2nd time teams saw him they started hitting him hard, and by the 3rd time he faced a team he was getting rocked. Texas had given up on him, and the Texas media was flabbergasted when they got Hamilton for him. My guess is that he that he started using when Texas had given up on him and the 3 good month we got were due to the roids and the fact no one had faced him before.

so, not a lock

You're putting a negative slant on it all, and you could be right. But in his defense, he has one of the highest SO/9 of any Reds pitcher. When people say "he has the best stuff of any Reds starter" there is a statistical basis for that. As well as the fact that those of us who watch him pitch can see that he makes people miss a lot.
Also, in 2008 he didn't drop off completely and he had good starts in August and September. And he has looked effective at times in 2009 and 2010. As someone else said on this thread, the fact that he started the 1st game of the playoffs should point to where the Reds see him.

Girevik
02-04-2011, 09:13 AM
He has had 3 good months his whole career, his 1st 3 months in a new league where no one had saw him before. The 2nd time teams saw him they started hitting him hard, and by the 3rd time he faced a team he was getting rocked. Texas had given up on him, and the Texas media was flabbergasted when they got Hamilton for him. My guess is that he that he started using when Texas had given up on him and the 3 good month we got were due to the roids and the fact no one had faced him before.

so, not a lock

Even IF all that is true, it won't have any affect on whether or not he makes the rotation at the start of the year. That may be an argument that he won't be there at the END of the year, but there is simply no way the Reds will give up on him in spring training.

Old NDN
02-04-2011, 11:27 AM
I think the $1.6 they just paid him makes him a lock to start in the rotation. His effectiveness will determine how long he stays there. Bailey is out of options, so he becomes the fifth starter, with Leake to the pen as long relief/fill-in if Bailey or Volquez fail.

naptown
02-04-2011, 11:31 AM
Barring a complete meltdown or injury, Volquez is in the starting rotation coming out of Spring Training. He was 21-8 in the two seasons with the Reds prior to his injury. And I am going to be as kind as possible here, those 2008 and 2009 teams were not even .500 ball clubs

The guy is 27 years old with legit #1/#2 stuff. The only way to see if he can get back to that kind of consistency is to get him starts. He has earned that much.

But a few words of warning to everyone that makes the starting rotation coming out of Spring Training. Dont be in an extended slump of any kind come the end of May. You will be replaced and you may not get the opportunity to get your job back.

bounty37h
02-04-2011, 03:30 PM
Hmm, really not sure, I am guessing Bailey stays due to options, but maybe in the pen? All I know is its a couple weeks till we start hearing more, and love that we have this problem now instead of "who could be out number 1 let alone #5" as past years have been. We may not have the names and aces of the Phils, but our depth is nasty!

757690
02-04-2011, 03:34 PM
He has had 3 good months his whole career, his 1st 3 months in a new league where no one had saw him before. The 2nd time teams saw him they started hitting him hard, and by the 3rd time he faced a team he was getting rocked. Texas had given up on him, and the Texas media was flabbergasted when they got Hamilton for him. My guess is that he that he started using when Texas had given up on him and the 3 good month we got were due to the roids and the fact no one had faced him before.

so, not a lock

Those are good points. But you have to wonder when his injury started to affect his performance.

Now that he's healthy, Volquez could be back to being very good again.

My main worry is his walk rate. He's never, even during his strong 3 months, been able to get that under control.

757690
02-04-2011, 03:37 PM
Hmm, really not sure, I am guessing Bailey stays due to options, but maybe in the pen? All I know is its a couple weeks till we start hearing more, and love that we have this problem now instead of "who could be out number 1 let alone #5" as past years have been. We may not have the names and aces of the Phils, but our depth is nasty!

Considering that Chapman is going to take over a starting spot next year, and no one in the rotation is leaving soon, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bailey traded if he doesn't win a starting job in spring. That would still leave the Reds with 6 starters for next season, and Chapman available for spot starts as the first in line to fill in when someone has to miss a start.

bounty37h
02-04-2011, 04:43 PM
Considering that Chapman is going to take over a starting spot next year, and no one in the rotation is leaving soon, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bailey traded if he doesn't win a starting job in spring. That would still leave the Reds with 6 starters for next season, and Chapman available for spot starts as the first in line to fill in when someone has to miss a start.

I wouldnt be surprised either, although I would bet they would wait til closer to deadline if can still afford to let him go and he has value.

757690
02-04-2011, 05:10 PM
I wouldnt be surprised either, although I would bet they would wait til closer to deadline if can still afford to let him go and he has value.

He's out of options so they might not have that luxury. It would be best if he just matured enough to be a reliable starter, but if he doesn't show signs of that in spring training, they might have to trade him.

bounty37h
02-04-2011, 05:35 PM
He's out of options so they might not have that luxury. It would be best if he just matured enough to be a reliable starter, but if he doesn't show signs of that in spring training, they might have to trade him.

Yeah, and theres the catch. If he pitches well enough to make the starting 5, do you trade him still (I might would as you dont know how long it lasts)? If he doesnt make it, then is he valuable enough you get a good trade return? Thats why i think he might make it if shows worth it and showcase him for awhile and put one of the others in the pen or AAA and bring him up after a trade. Interesting weeks ahead!!

lonewolf371
02-06-2011, 11:42 AM
Those are good points. But you have to wonder when his injury started to affect his performance.

Now that he's healthy, Volquez could be back to being very good again.

My main worry is his walk rate. He's never, even during his strong 3 months, been able to get that under control.
Well he did just come back from Tommy John Surgery, so the chances of him having a good walk rate when he came back last year were slim to begin with. However, when you have a high strikeout rate as Volquez does, you can make up for the lack of walks. That plus his GB% was actually way up, his HR/FB% was probably too high, and his BABIP was a ways above his career mark, and I think most signs point to Volquez having a much better 2011 than 2010.

As for Bailey, I expect him to be the 5th starter. He actually pitched much better than his ERA last year. In fact, last year he bested Leake in every stat except IP, ERA, GB%, and BB/9 (although BB/9 was within 0.1 of each other).

Kingspoint
02-06-2011, 04:54 PM
From Rotoworld via The Cincinnati Enquirer w/ Rotoworld comments:

Reds GM Walt Jocketty said whoever of Homer Bailey, Travis Wood and Mike Leake that doesn't win a rotation spot could pitch out of the bullpen rather than as a starter at Triple-A.

The trio will fight for the final two spots in the rotation, with Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney also part of the discussion. "One of them could definitely end up in the bullpen," Jocketty said. "We’re going to need someone down there to give us some innings. They are all capable of doing that." The Reds also, of course, have a potential high-upside starter in Aroldis Chapman, but with their starting pitching depth, they're expected to keep him in the bullpen for now.

Kingspoint
02-06-2011, 04:56 PM
As far as Volquez last year, anything other than another injury was just gravy. There's nothing but positives to look forward to regarding Edison.

Quatitos
02-06-2011, 05:37 PM
Well he did just come back from Tommy John Surgery, so the chances of him having a good walk rate when he came back last year were slim to begin with. However, when you have a high strikeout rate as Volquez does, you can make up for the lack of walks. That plus his GB% was actually way up, his HR/FB% was probably too high, and his BABIP was a ways above his career mark, and I think most signs point to Volquez having a much better 2011 than 2010.

As for Bailey, I expect him to be the 5th starter. He actually pitched much better than his ERA last year. In fact, last year he bested Leake in every stat except IP, ERA, GB%, and BB/9 (although BB/9 was within 0.1 of each other).

I wonder if Volquez can keep that GB/FB ratio he showed last season. I wonder if it is a product of his increasing the use of his curve in his repertoire, or merely just some good luck. He had a low LD% of 15.2% which might regress back to his career average of ~20%. His GB% was 53.9% vs. his career average of 46.0% and his FB% was 30.9% vs. his career average of 34.3%. I doubt you will see him maintain a 1.75 GB/FB ratio over a whole season, but if this increase is more than just a statistical outlier and he can keep it at 1.50+ it would be a very good improvement, especially when you consider his high walk rate since ground balls cause double plays and don't lead to extra base hits..

I would assume that with more time removed from surgery, and a whole spring training under his belt that we can expect him to go back to the mid to low 4's for his BB/9, and you can always hope for better but I can't imagine him making that big of a step in one season. Mix that with a K/9 of ~9 and its not that bad. With his ground ball tendencies that helps alleviate some of the damage caused by his high walk rate, since it gives a lot of chances for double plays.

As for Bailey, I talked about it in another thread, but he had some bad luck last year and pitched a lot better than his W/L record and ERA would show. One of the easiest things to see in terms of his bad luck would be how many of his runners he left on when he got pulled ended up scoring. Last season Bailey left 11 runners on when he got pulled, and 7 of them scored. Leake on the other hand left 11 runners on and 4 of them scored. If you have Bailey match Leake's "luck" with runners left on, his ERA would drop down to 4.21, which is an improvement over 2009 and he can hopefully keep improving and put up an even better 2011. Both of them also have GB/FB ratios on the GB side, with Leake's 1.58 to Bailey's 1.12. I like the fact that the Reds could have a rotation where every pitcher has a >1 GB/FB ratio, especially with the high caliber of the Red's infield defense (assuming Janish is playing that is).

I personally think that Bailey has a lock on the #4 spot, just because of being out of options, and #5 will come down to Leake and Wood. I would personally like to see Wood get a look at starting the whole year at the major league level, and give Leake a year to build up his innings in AAA and be the first one to come up if a starter is injured. Wood gives you a very good level of control with a 7.54 K/9 and 2.28 BB/9 for a 3.31 K/BB last season with the ability to go 200+ innings. The only thing that scares me about Wood is his high FB%. Wood got by last season with a 48.1% FB ratio with only a 6.3% HR/FB rate. Now he might be able to keep those numbers up, since his minor league average HR/9 was .7 vs. his .8 HR/9 last season in the majors. So if he can keep those kind of numbers up through a whole season, he could easily put up something like a 3.5 ERA and 200+ innings, which is something I don't see Leake being able to keep up through a whole season just because he hasn't put up that many innings before.

Roush's socks
02-06-2011, 10:34 PM
It seems like the majority see leake as the odd man out. Of course it will all depend on how they look in ST.

Kingspoint
02-07-2011, 01:39 AM
I just can't see Travis Wood not being one of the best 3 pitchers for the REDS this season.

lonewolf371
02-07-2011, 11:35 AM
I just can't see Travis Wood not being one of the best 3 pitchers for the REDS this season.
He's good. Only 100 IP, though. Let's wait for him to pitch a full season before we say he's better than Cueto, Volquez, and Arroyo.

Chris Sabowned
02-07-2011, 07:04 PM
I don't see what Edinson has done to leap frog Travis Wood and keep himself safe from this discussion.

Here's my prediction for our rotation:
1. Arroyo
2. Cueto
3. Wood
4. Volquez
5. Bailey
BP. Leake

Someone will probably get hurt and Leake will get a chance, so if he pitches well while he's in there things should work themselves out. They usually do.

Kingspoint
02-07-2011, 09:33 PM
I don't see what Edinson has done to leap frog Travis Wood and keep himself safe from this discussion.

Here's my prediction for our rotation:
1. Arroyo
2. Cueto
3. Wood
4. Volquez
5. Bailey
BP. Leake

Someone will probably get hurt and Leake will get a chance, so if he pitches well while he's in there things should work themselves out. They usually do.
I agree. He didn't throw enough innings last year coming off of his major injury to justify saying that he can go 200+ innings this year, which is what a #3 Starter needs to be able to do.

And, I'm a firm believer of what you said,....."These things have a way of working themselves out."

Quatitos
02-07-2011, 10:00 PM
I agree. He didn't throw enough innings last year coming off of his major injury to justify saying that he can go 200+ innings this year, which is what a #3 Starter needs to be able to do.

And, I'm a firm believer of what you said,....."These things have a way of working themselves out."

Good point there, with only throwing a combined 108 innings last season, it is definitely questionable whether he could be able to reach the 200 inning mark, with his career high set at 196 in 08 and 178 2/3 in 07. On the other hand Arroyo, Cueto, and Wood will all have the ability to throw 200 innings next season. It would probably be safe to say (in my opinion) that Volquez can put up 160-180 innings which is not that far under 200. How much that should actually determine the order of the pitchers is another question.

malcontent
02-18-2011, 03:13 PM
By HAL McCOY
FOXSportsOhio.com

When a discussion about the battle for the starting rotation surfaced in Baker's office the first day of camp, he said: "Don't forget, we have Dontrelle Willis in there. There is always a surprise Leake in there somewhere. Last year, Mike Leake wasn't on the radar, so you always leave some space for a surprise guy."

Willis won 68 games in five years as a starter for the Marlins, including a 22-10 record in 2005.

Willis officially on the rotation radar.

:)

texasdave
02-18-2011, 03:14 PM
By HAL McCOY
FOXSportsOhio.com

When a discussion about the battle for the starting rotation surfaced in Baker's office the first day of camp, he said: "Don't forget, we have Dontrelle Willis in there. There is always a surprise Leake in there somewhere. Last year, Mike Leake wasn't on the radar, so you always leave some space for a surprise guy."

Willis won 68 games in five years as a starter for the Marlins, including a 22-10 record in 2005.

Willis officially on the rotation radar.

:)

If he earns it more power to him. Competition is a good thing.

Kingspoint
02-18-2011, 08:36 PM
He's good. Only 100 IP, though. Let's wait for him to pitch a full season before we say he's better than Cueto, Volquez, and Arroyo.

You were counting just the Major League innings. Don't know if you meant for stamina reasons or from Major League experience.

Stamina-wise, he's good to go for the regular rotation all year long.

Major League experience-wise, the way he's thrown the ball, and when you listen to him through interviews and how he's become so successful lately, he isn't prone to the same adjustments that one has to make going from their rookie year to their sophomore season. There isn't any reason to believe that the adjustments which he will make won't continue to let him be just as successful this season as he was last season.

Kingspoint
02-18-2011, 08:37 PM
Good point there, with only throwing a combined 108 innings last season, it is definitely questionable whether he could be able to reach the 200 inning mark, with his career high set at 196 in 08 and 178 2/3 in 07. On the other hand Arroyo, Cueto, and Wood will all have the ability to throw 200 innings next season. It would probably be safe to say (in my opinion) that Volquez can put up 160-180 innings which is not that far under 200. How much that should actually determine the order of the pitchers is another question.

I'm thinking the same thing....160-180 innings, or about 24-27 starts. He's going to need some starts skipped throughout the year. Would hate to see him re-injure himself. And, we also want him to be good-to-go for the playoffs, where he could end up making another 5-6 starts.

Vottomatic
06-16-2011, 04:42 PM
I'd go with a 6 man rotation.

I said it back in the Spring and now Mo Egger is been pushing this all week.

Maybe I should have my own radio show? :D

brm7675
06-16-2011, 05:44 PM
I said it back in the Spring and now Mo Egger is been pushing this all week.

Maybe I should have my own radio show? :D

It won't happen, pitchers are creatures of habit and want to pitch every 4th day...Mr. Wood will be heading southwest...

Roush's socks
06-16-2011, 11:03 PM
There seems to be a consensus in MLB that 6th man rotations are a bad idea. Whether this is right I don't know. I think they should give Arroyo a little time off if/when Bailey is ready and if everyone else is still pitching well. He could benefit from the rest since he is still battling the effects of mono.