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Kc61
02-04-2011, 04:53 PM
What's your early February view of the Reds roster? Here's mine.

Position players. Perhaps this will change, but right now I see a set roster.

Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Lewis, Stubbs, Bruce, Hernandez as the basic starting team against righties.

Gomes, Heisey, Cairo, Renteria, Hanigan as the basic, all right handed, five-man bench.

I don't see much room for change on this barring injury. I think Heisey is a lock because he plays CF. It's possible Cairo or Renteria could be dropped, but I doubt it. No, I think this could well be a set group.

If the Reds go with an extra hitter for awhile (usually a short while), it would be Hermida.

Pitching - much more confusing at this point.

The following are the likely candidates for the rotation: Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Leake.

The following are the likely locks for the pen:

Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Bray, Ondrusek.

The following are the likely contenders for two bullpen spots:

Arredondo, Burton, Willis, Smith, Lecure, and starters who do not make the rotation (say Leake or Bailey).

The following are long-shots for the bullpen:

Herrera, Fisher.

For the pitching staff, I'll go with: Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Leake, Bailey, Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Bray, Ondrusek, and Jared Burton. If Reds go with 11 pitchers for awhile, Burton or Leake would start at AAA.

I know it's early, but fire away.

Griffey012
02-04-2011, 07:44 PM
Leake will not end up in the bullpen under any scenario. It just doesn't make sense due to the type of pitcher he is and that he has options and can go to AAA and start. It would be a HUGE negative/waste to have Leake in the bullpen.

I really think Leake starts in AAA and the rotation is Arroyo Cueto Volquez Wood and Bailey. Barring an awful spring I think Bailey is a near lock to get one last shot to perform in the rotation and hold down a spot, if he can't it is onto the bullpen for the long man spot and enter Mike Leake. As far as the bullpen I would guess Arredondo and Willis both start in AAA regardless of their springs, unless the rest of the group really craps out. This is because Arredondo is coming off injury and Willis is still in the midst of his huge breakdown and needs to prove he can be effective in game situations consistently before he gets a spot on the team.

I agree the hitting portion looks set.

My guess on pitchers:
Starters: Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Wood, and Bailey
Relievers: Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Bray, Ondrusek, Lecure (long man), and Burton depending on if they go 12 pitchers or 11.

cinreds21
02-04-2011, 09:00 PM
I may be wrong, but isn't Burton out of options?

mth123
02-04-2011, 09:28 PM
The Reds signed Burton to a $750K contract to avoid arb. I'm guessing he's a lock or he would have been non-tendered.

Danny Serafini
02-04-2011, 09:43 PM
The Reds signed Burton to a $750K contract to avoid arb. I'm guessing he's a lock or he would have been non-tendered.

$750K isn't that much over the minimum. If he's not one of the seven best relievers coming out of Spring Training I doubt they'll have any qualms about sending him down.

mth123
02-04-2011, 10:11 PM
$750K isn't that much over the minimum. If he's not one of the seven best relievers coming out of Spring Training I doubt they'll have any qualms about sending him down.

I don't think its the money as much as the willingness to risk arb in the first place. I'm guessing they wouldn't have done that if he didn't already have a job. I'd guess he could lose his spot if he's awful and somebody else is great, but I'd say if he's ok, he's in.

Kc61
02-05-2011, 12:51 AM
The Reds signed Burton to a $750K contract to avoid arb. I'm guessing he's a lock or he would have been non-tendered.

If Burton is out of options and a near lock, then the pitching staff is almost set, as is the position player group.

You'd have Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Wood, Bailey, Cordero, Bray, Chapman, Masset, Ondrusek, Burton. That's 11 locks or near locks.

IMO Leake is the twelfth pitcher and fifth starter, with Bailey sliding into the pen.

Or Leake goes down to AAA with one more reliever kept, probably Smith, Lecure or Willis.

The point being that this team is nearly set, barring injury, on February 4.

Danny Serafini
02-05-2011, 02:00 AM
I don't think its the money as much as the willingness to risk arb in the first place. I'm guessing they wouldn't have done that if he didn't already have a job. I'd guess he could lose his spot if he's awful and somebody else is great, but I'd say if he's ok, he's in.

There's not much risk in offering arb to a guy who threw 3 1/3 innings in the Major Leagues last season. He wasn't going to get a big money deal. I actually agree in that I think he's got a pretty good chance to make the team, I just don't see his contract figuring much into it.

camisadelgolf
02-05-2011, 04:53 AM
I may be wrong, but isn't Burton out of options?
Nope! Quite the opposite.

mth123
02-05-2011, 07:24 AM
I don't see Ondrusek or Heisey as locks. Leake is also a question. These three are all guys who didn't really complete their minor league development. Leake skipped the minors and his inning building phase. Heisey really never had much success in AAA and Ondrusek only had 73 innings between AA and AAA. With roster spots scarce and the roster out of balance, I could see them all starting in AAA.

Lewis LF
Philips 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B (I'd hit him lower or 2nd)
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Hernandez C
Janish SS

Hanigan C
Gomes LF
Renteria IF
Cairo IF

The last position spot would ideally go to a LH bat. I still say Francisco makes the most sense - pop off the bench and allows Rolen more rest. With Renteria being more of a utility guy, he and Cairo still seems like a poor use of a spot IMO. One or the other is needed, but having both will leave the Reds short either in the OF or in LH bats on the bench. Renteria's $2.1 Million and Cairo's two year deal says the team has already decided that both are here. I realy hated the rush to bring back Cairo just becuase it was pretty easy to see that the Reds were locking themselves into this very situation. Ideally, they would only have one of these guys and both Heiesy and Francisco would go north.

Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood
Bailey

Cordero
Chapman
Masset
Bray
Arredondo
Burton

the last spot is between Willis and Ondrusek IMO. Willis being LH, capable of longer stints and "a name" gives him an edge IMO. Another possibilty might be Arredondo starting on the DL. As stated earlier, I think the team has already decided Burton has a job. The fact that they offered him arb IMO indicates that they already made that decision. The money isn't so great that they can't change their mind and cut him loose, but I think they already determined that he's going north at the end of spring and they wouldn't cut bait before Memorial Day.

The Reds certainly can fill in with quality depth in case of injury or if they could put a package together for a real upgrade somewhere. A package with say Gomes and Burton included would free a couple million to allow for a decent player in return. The Reds would probably need to add a prospect or two to get one though.

Kc61
02-05-2011, 01:01 PM
I don't see Ondrusek or Heisey as locks. Leake is also a question. These three are all guys who didn't really complete their minor league development. Leake skipped the minors and his inning building phase. Heisey really never had much success in AAA and Ondrusek only had 73 innings between AA and AAA. With roster spots scarce and the roster out of balance, I could see them all starting in AAA.

The Reds certainly can fill in with quality depth in case of injury or if they could put a package together for a real upgrade somewhere. A package with say Gomes and Burton included would free a couple million to allow for a decent player in return. The Reds would probably need to add a prospect or two to get one though.

I disagree with you on Heisey and Ondrusek, who I think are highly likely to go north, barring injury or a disastrous spring.

However, I strongly agree with you that the Reds' bench set up is a problem. With both Cairo and Renteria there is no lefty bat off the bench (except Lewis when he doesn't start). Room for either Hermida or Francisco should be available, but at this point it doesn't appear to be.

As for Leake, I'm probably in the minority, but I think he will be with the big club, either as the fifth starter or a swing man.

mth123
02-05-2011, 02:02 PM
I just don't get it with Heisey. I like him and would be happy to see him on the team at Cairo's expense, but if its down to the last spot, what makes him a better choice than Francisco?

Major League PA - Heisey 226, Francisco 84;

Major League OPS+ - Heisey 103 (fueled by 4 PH HR which IMO is a bit flukey), Francisco 122;

AAA Stats - Heisey 360 PAs with a .269/.319/.457/.776 Francisco 428 PAs with a .303/.339/.573/.911.

If Francisco is generally viewed as "not ready and needs to play every day," how is it that Heisey is ready when JF has basically outperformed him in all four slash stats? It may come down to what the Reds need most. Heisey provides a defender in CF and RF, Francisco provides a LH bat. Cairo can play an OF corner if need be. Bruce or Lewis could get by in CF for a day. It wouldn't be ideal, but the Reds could move guys around and cover those positions, but they really can't reshuffle a bench of Cairo, Renteria, Hanigan, Heisey and Gomes to come up with a LH bat. Its not like Heisey would be unavailable should Stubbs or Bruce be out for an extended period. He could always be recalled if one of those guys is to miss multiple games and he's really needed. But day-in, day-out the Reds will be lacking that LH bat should the team go with Heisey in the last spot.

As for Ondrusek, he was pretty good in 2010. I'd like to see him stick, but I don't think they signed Willlis to pitch in AAA. If Willis shows anything, I think he gets a spot, somebody has to go down and I think Ondrusek is the low man on he totem pole. If they are all healthy, Burton and Arredondo have both proven themselves as more accomplished arms in the past.

I'd really like to see the Reds deal a package of kids and bottom of the roster guys like this for one clear upgrade somewhere. Guys like Maloney, Lecure, Fisher and Smith probably all deserve a shot to stick at this point too and I see no realistic way short of some kind of disaster that takes out three or four pitchers.

Will M
02-05-2011, 03:31 PM
Heisey is a key IMO.

A great spring wins him the job in left field vs a left handed starter.
Lewis/Heisey is the leadoff hitter the Reds need & Heisey's defense is vastly superior to Gomes's. While his splits vs left handed pitching weren't good in limited ABs in the majors his minor league OPS vs left handed pitching is ~931 (if I recall correctly). This pushes Gomes to the 5th outfielder spot where his usefullness isn't good. Basically a pinch hitter vs a left handed pitcher. While he would be a better option than Cairo/Renteria/etc in this spot it would likely not be a good use of a roster space. A trade to an AL team needing a right handed DH would open up the 25th roster spot for Francisco or Hermida.

A poor spring by Heisey sends him back to AAA & also opens up the 25th roster spot for Francisco or Hermida.

Now. This is what I would do if I ran the team. I actually don't expect the Reds to do so. I'll bet Gomes & Heisey are both on the team. Gomes gets the ABs in left. Heisey is a 5th outfielder & the team is short a left handed bat which seems to rear its ugly head in several big spots early on in the season. I hope I am wrong.

lollipopcurve
02-05-2011, 04:02 PM
They'll carry a LH bat off the bench -- count on it. Probably Hermida. Heisey and Gomes battle for the RH portion of the LF platoon with Lewis. Loser could get dealt. Heisey can always go get regular ABs in Louisville.

BP: Cordero (if he isn't dealt), Masset, Chapman, Bray, Ondrusek, loser of 5th starter competition (health permitting), and pick 'em for the last spot (Willis, Arredondo, Maloney, Burton, Lecure, etc.).

backbencher
02-05-2011, 05:28 PM
They'll carry a LH bat off the bench -- count on it. Probably Hermida. Heisey and Gomes battle for the RH portion of the LF platoon with Lewis. Loser could get dealt. Heisey can always go get regular ABs in Louisville.

BP: Cordero (if he isn't dealt), Masset, Chapman, Bray, Ondrusek, loser of 5th starter competition (health permitting), and pick 'em for the last spot (Willis, Arredondo, Maloney, Burton, Lecure, etc.).

This looks right to me.

Francisco gets regular ABs in AAA and gets called up as the regular 3B if Rolen goes down. Cairo/Renteria get the AB's as Rolen's caddy.

Extra lefty bat comes with the 5th OF. Hermida's signing looks a lot like Gomes, just two years later.

Griffey012
02-06-2011, 03:25 AM
Heisey is a key IMO.

A great spring wins him the job in left field vs a left handed starter.
Lewis/Heisey is the leadoff hitter the Reds need & Heisey's defense is vastly superior to Gomes's. While his splits vs left handed pitching weren't good in limited ABs in the majors his minor league OPS vs left handed pitching is ~931 (if I recall correctly). This pushes Gomes to the 5th outfielder spot where his usefullness isn't good. Basically a pinch hitter vs a left handed pitcher. While he would be a better option than Cairo/Renteria/etc in this spot it would likely not be a good use of a roster space. A trade to an AL team needing a right handed DH would open up the 25th roster spot for Francisco or Hermida.

A poor spring by Heisey sends him back to AAA & also opens up the 25th roster spot for Francisco or Hermida.

Now. This is what I would do if I ran the team. I actually don't expect the Reds to do so. I'll bet Gomes & Heisey are both on the team. Gomes gets the ABs in left. Heisey is a 5th outfielder & the team is short a left handed bat which seems to rear its ugly head in several big spots early on in the season. I hope I am wrong.

Heisey will never win the duel with Gomes against LHP. An .878 OPS is hard to beat. Sure Heisey's D may make up the difference but not enough for the coaches and management to realize that.

reds44
02-06-2011, 03:44 AM
How can you possibly have Burton and Arredondo as locks and have Ondrusek competing for the last spot? How does that make sense at all?

redsfandan
02-06-2011, 10:52 AM
I'm not crazy about this but it looks like Chapman isn't the only starting pitcher that could be in the Reds bullpen.

Leake, Wood or Bailey could end up in the bullpen
Posted by jfay 02/04/11, 4:22 pm

The pitcher who finishes sixth in race for the five rotation spots could end up in the bullpen. Homer Bailey, Travis Wood and Mike Leake are competing for the fourth and fifth starter spot.

“One of them could definitely end up in the bullpen,” Walt Jocketty said. “We’re going to need someone down there to give us some innings. They are all capable of doing that.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/02/04/leake-wood-or-bailey-could-end-up-in-the-bullpen/

Griffey012
02-06-2011, 01:04 PM
I'm not crazy about this but it looks like Chapman isn't the only starting pitcher that could be in the Reds bullpen.

If Leake and Wood win the rotation spots I will not be mad at all to see Bailey in the pen. I don't know how I would feel about Wood in the pen, but I just cannot see him not making the rotation. As I stated earlier I think Leake in the pen would be a trainwreck.

However, with Bailey in the pen he could be groomed as Cordero's replacement, leaving Chapman to take a run at the rotation because we do not need another hammer in the pen if Bailey emerges. Many, many starting pitchers with good stuff and a power arm have turned into excellent closers, and Bailey could do just that.

Will M
02-06-2011, 03:05 PM
Heisey will never win the duel with Gomes against LHP. An .878 OPS is hard to beat. Sure Heisey's D may make up the difference but not enough for the coaches and management to realize that.

you could be right but i'll point out two things:

1) Gomes's defense was just beyond awful at times last year. if i recall didn't he contribute to the game 1 playoff loss where Volquez gave up 4 runs early yet really could have only given up 1 run? things like that stick in peoples minds.

2) the team has repeatedly said that they want a leadoff hitter. Lewis/Heisey fits the bill. If Gomes is in left field vs a left handed starter then Stubbs will have to move up in the order & the team may not want to do that.

PuffyPig
02-06-2011, 04:27 PM
you could be right but i'll point out two things:

1) Gomes's defense was just beyond awful at times last year. if i recall didn't he contribute to the game 1 playoff loss where Volquez gave up 4 runs early yet really could have only given up 1 run? things like that stick in peoples minds.

2) the team has repeatedly said that they want a leadoff hitter. Lewis/Heisey fits the bill. If Gomes is in left field vs a left handed starter then Stubbs will have to move up in the order & the team may not want to do that.

FWIW, the Reds lead the league last year in runs scored without a "leadoff hitter".

kpresidente
02-06-2011, 06:08 PM
Heisey will never win the duel with Gomes against LHP. An .878 OPS is hard to beat. Sure Heisey's D may make up the difference but not enough for the coaches and management to realize that.

Heisey has a huge split as well.

Kc61
02-06-2011, 07:29 PM
Heisey has a huge split as well.

Heisey has a huge reverse split for a RH batter. He had a .546 OPS against lefty pitching last season. His OPS against righties was .925.

He's a righty hitter who, so far, in limited at bats, hits righties and not lefties.

This is why I think Gomes is a lock. When the Reds face a lefty pitcher, Lewis will sit and Gomes will play left.
But I still think Heisey is also a favorite to make the team because he plays the outfield so well, and was a good clutch hitter last year. He plays CF well, and can relieve Stubbs when needed.

The only other outfield possibility is Lewis backing up CF and Hermida as the fifth outfielder. I guess that's a possibility too, with Heisey being sent down or traded. My view, though, is that Heisey will make it north along with Gomes.

If a lefty bat is to serve on the bench, it will probably be at the expense of Cairo. But he has a two-year deal. So I think it will be tough for the Reds to find a spot for a lefty bench bat, because Heisey, Gomes, Cairo, Renteria and Hanigan all seem likely to go north.

mth123
02-06-2011, 07:42 PM
Heisey has a huge reverse split for a RH batter. He had a .546 OPS against lefty pitching last season. His OPS against righties was over .900.

He's a righty hitter who, so far, hits righties and not lefties.

This is why I think Gomes is a lock. When the Reds face a lefty pitcher, Lewis will sit and Gomes will play left.

But I still think Heisey is also a favorite to make the team because he plays the outfield so well, and was a good clutch hitter last year. He plays CF well, and can relieve Stubbs when needed.

The only other outfield possibility is Lewis backing up CF and Hermida as the fifth outfielder. I guess that's a possibility too, with Heisey being sent down or traded. My view, though, is that Heisey will make it north along with Gomes.

If a lefty bat is to serve on the bench, it will probably be at the expense of Cairo. But he has a two-year deal. So I think it will be tough for the Reds to find a spot for a lefty bench bat, because Heisey, Gomes, Cairo, Renteria and Hanigan all seem likely to go north.

Heisey's splits in 2010 are based on a small sample size skewed by 4 flukey PH HR.

In 2009 in the minors vs RHP:

.305/.364/.510/.874

and VS LHP:

.362/.454/.567/1.021

He was a much better hitter vs lefties in the minors than he was vs. righties. I wouldn't put much weight in his major league splits in 2010.

Kc61
02-06-2011, 07:47 PM
Heisey's splits in 2010 are based on a small sample size skewed by 4 flukey PH HR.

In 2009 in the minors vs RHP:

.305/.364/.510/.874

and VS LHP:

.362/.454/.567/1.021

He was a much better hitter vs lefties in the minors than he was vs. righties. I wouldn't put much weight in his major league splits in 2010.

Sure. But if the Reds are going to keep a righty masher to platoon in the outfield, Gomes has the track record, Heisey doesn't. So I think Gomes is a lock to make the team, to play that role.

Reds also like Gomes' clubhouse role.

It's too bad it shapes up with such a righty dominated bench, I would prefer at least one lefty bench bat. Reds only have three lefty hitting position players, too few IMO.

But I see both Gomes and Heisey on the team, despite their right handedness.

As others have said, it would have made more sense to have a lefty or switch hitter in the infield. Cairo and Renteria seem to be carbon copies at this point, although ER can still play some shortstop.

Scrap Irony
02-06-2011, 08:09 PM
you could be right but i'll point out two things:

1) Gomes's defense was just beyond awful at times last year. if i recall didn't he contribute to the game 1 playoff loss where Volquez gave up 4 runs early yet really could have only given up 1 run? things like that stick in peoples minds.

2) the team has repeatedly said that they want a leadoff hitter. Lewis/Heisey fits the bill. If Gomes is in left field vs a left handed starter then Stubbs will have to move up in the order & the team may not want to do that.

According to BIS, over the course of his playing career, Gomes is worth around -1.2 dWAR per season. If he only plays around a third of the season as a platoon player and his OPS remains in the 880-ish range (and Baker uses him as a PH late against the other team's LOOGYs in games started by RH), his defensive issues might not be as hard to stomach as they were last season when he was given more playing time.

As to leadoff issues, those matter less against LH, as Phillips, Gomes, Rolen, and Votto have all historically hit very well against southpaws. Plug in Phillips as the leadoff guy and you get a guy who's career OPS is just south of 850.

If the Reds get that from their leadoff hitters, they'll again lead the league in runs.

mth123
02-06-2011, 08:14 PM
Sure. But if the Reds are going to keep a righty masher to platoon in the outfield, Gomes has the track record, Heisey doesn't. So I think Gomes is a lock to make the team, to play that role.

Reds also like Gomes' clubhouse role.

It's too bad it shapes up this way, because I would prefer one lefty bench bat. Reds only have three lefty hitting position players, too few IMO.

But I see both Gomes and Heisey on the team, despite their right handedness.

As others have said, it would have made more sense to have a lefty or switch hitter in the infield. Cairo and Renteria seem to be carbon copies at this point, although ER can still play some shortstop.

You're prbably right in what will happen, I just think its a mistake. IMO, Heisey never finished his AAA prep time. Those PH HR made 2010 look better than it really was. I kind of expect his 2011 against both sides to look a lot more like his 2010 vs. lefties. I think Heisey is the guy that needs to go to AAA and play every day. I think he needs it more than Francisco or Cozart or Valaika. Heck, even Alonso may be more ready to hit in the big leagues even with all the time he's missed. When Heisey was in the line-up, he wasn't very good (.656 OPS in 175 PAs as a starter). The 4 PH HR are really what put his OPS in the league average range. That's probably not anything we should count on repeating and w/o those, the entire board would probably be calling for him to spend more time in AAA. Those stats are probably still from pretty small samples, but his AAA OPS wasn't really anything to write home about (.737 in 89 2010 PAs and .789 in 271 PAs in 2009). Given the Reds other needs and other options, I think Heisey should have to hit his way onto the roster and not off of it.

Will M
02-06-2011, 08:51 PM
Couple of thoughts:

1) mth123 - i agree with you about Heisey. he hasn't proved he belongs in the bigs. however, he hasn't proved he doesn't. what to do with him (starter, bench, AAA, trade, etc) is decision that the Reds will have to make this spring. i suspect the 25th spot will come down to Heisey or Hermida. if its Heisey then the team only has 3 lefty bats. if its Hermida then the team doesn't have a true beckup in CF. thats why i would love to see Heisey bust out in Arizona & win the starters job (at least vs LHP) over Gomes. it ould allow the team to have both a 4th lefty bat and a true backup centerfielder.(Gomes being the odd man out).

2) the love for Hermida baffles me. He OPSed 619 last year. Yet there seem to be a ton of folks who want him on the 25 man roster. to me he sounds like a guy who really has something to prove. sure he could turn into Nelson Cruz. but he's more likely to be one of many top prospects who didn't pan out.

3) depth is a good thing to have. the team looks like it should have some troops in reserve in AAA in case injuries hit.

4) IMO the screwup Walt made was bringing back Cairo. Yes the guy was great on the bench in 2010. Yes he is a good clubhouse guy. Yes he is pretty cheap. However, he is basically a backup at 1B/3B. Looking at the Reds roster when he was brought back Walt should have realized that either the backup 1B/3B or the backup 2B/SS really needed to hit left handed. Since a lefty hitter is easier to find as a corner infielder then I think Walt should have tried to find an Eric Hinske type of player. Basically find a guy who hits left handed, can play 3B adequately & can fill in at 1B/LF. When Cairo was signed the die was cast: a pure right handed bench was a very strong possibility.

Blitz Dorsey
02-06-2011, 11:44 PM
Here's a breakdown on how the roster might shape up (and a prediction for the team's final record) from a Reds blog:

http://www.threewaychili.com/reds-2011/january/presenting-your-2011-cincinnati-reds.html

I tend to think Arredondo will be in there instead of Burton, but I agree with most of the rest of it. The good news this year is there really aren't many question marks/jobs up in the air. Two bullpen spots ... and they need to figure out who is going to be the odd-man-out in the 6-man battle for the 5 spots in the rotation. I think that will work itself out though. No way all of them will stay healthy throughout the year -- all six of those starters will be needed. And who knows, if two of them have injury problems, or are ineffective, I fully expect Chapman to be moved into the rotation. But as it stands, I like him in the bullpen for now. With him in the mix, there would be 7 legit starting pitchers. Might as well give him 1 more year in the pen (or a half-year) if possible. The Reds for once have an abundance of quality pitching depth. That can disappear real quick, but things sure look good heading into ST.

Orenda
02-07-2011, 12:08 AM
I think Heisey is the guy that needs to go to AAA and play every day. I think he needs it more than Francisco or Cozart or Valaika.

I see you have a preference for hackers.

PuffyPig
02-07-2011, 11:28 AM
Heisey's splits in 2010 are based on a small sample size skewed by 4 flukey PH HR.



You can argue "small sample size" all you want, and its valid, but what makes the 4 HR's flukey?

Were they all routine FB's that that caught caught in a wind draft only to hit the LF's head and bounce out?

If you remove the word "flukey" from your sentence it makes more sense.

edabbs44
02-07-2011, 11:43 AM
Couple of thoughts:

1) mth123 - i agree with you about Heisey. he hasn't proved he belongs in the bigs. however, he hasn't proved he doesn't. what to do with him (starter, bench, AAA, trade, etc) is decision that the Reds will have to make this spring. i suspect the 25th spot will come down to Heisey or Hermida. if its Heisey then the team only has 3 lefty bats. if its Hermida then the team doesn't have a true beckup in CF. thats why i would love to see Heisey bust out in Arizona & win the starters job (at least vs LHP) over Gomes. it ould allow the team to have both a 4th lefty bat and a true backup centerfielder.(Gomes being the odd man out).

While it isn't exactly "proof", Heisey's performance down the stretch did nothing positive for him at all. He looked like a HS kid. If he was at least hitting the ball hard, it would be easy to excuse him. But he was pretty much useless.


2) the love for Hermida baffles me. He OPSed 619 last year. Yet there seem to be a ton of folks who want him on the 25 man roster. to me he sounds like a guy who really has something to prove. sure he could turn into Nelson Cruz. but he's more likely to be one of many top prospects who didn't pan out.

Agree 100%. I think you can point to 2 reasons:

1) Some posters have been screaming for this guy for years, so they feel obligated to root for him on the board at this time. And, if he works out, they can pat themselves on the back.

2) Others may still feel as if this team should be in the business of looking for reclamation projects, when in fact they should be looking at how to improve a playoff team. If Hermida earns it, he should be there. If not, ba bye.


3) depth is a good thing to have. the team looks like it should have some troops in reserve in AAA in case injuries hit.

That's for sure.


4) IMO the screwup Walt made was bringing back Cairo. Yes the guy was great on the bench in 2010. Yes he is a good clubhouse guy. Yes he is pretty cheap. However, he is basically a backup at 1B/3B. Looking at the Reds roster when he was brought back Walt should have realized that either the backup 1B/3B or the backup 2B/SS really needed to hit left handed. Since a lefty hitter is easier to find as a corner infielder then I think Walt should have tried to find an Eric Hinske type of player. Basically find a guy who hits left handed, can play 3B adequately & can fill in at 1B/LF. When Cairo was signed the die was cast: a pure right handed bench was a very strong possibility.

I think the screwup Walt made last year was having this guy on the team as well. Or at least some may feel that way. From a pure numers standpoint, this is probably accurate. But from an overall team standpoint, we may not be in the position to make that determination.

RedsManRick
02-10-2011, 05:55 PM
Agreed on the Cairo point. In a bubble, he's fine. But Fransisco would be a much better fit as a 1B/3B/LF coming off the bench.

backbencher
02-10-2011, 06:21 PM
Agreed on the Cairo point. In a bubble, he's fine. But Fransisco would be a much better fit as a 1B/3B/LF coming off the bench.


Not so sure about the LF.

Either way, signing Cairo tells us that the team wants a little more development out of Francisco, and perhaps harbors some hope that he will either be a long-term player or a valuable trade chip. Francisco as the bench guys stunts his development.

I have no doubt that if Rolen gets DL'ed, then Francisco would get the call to play everyday.

RedsManRick
02-10-2011, 07:47 PM
Not so sure about the LF.

Either way, signing Cairo tells us that the team wants a little more development out of Francisco, and perhaps harbors some hope that he will either be a long-term player or a valuable trade chip. Francisco as the bench guys stunts his development.

I have no doubt that if Rolen gets DL'ed, then Francisco would get the call to play everyday.

I could agree with that. Given that, I'd say that bringing Gomes back was the mistake. Because it basically means you either have to go without a lefty bat on the bench most days or you have to completely waste Chris Heisey.

TheNext44
02-10-2011, 07:58 PM
Personally I think neither Cairo nor Gomes are locks to make the team or be with it the whole season. If Francisco or Heisey out plays them, the Reds won't hesitate to move them. The key to their signings was that their contracts are easy to move/eat.

Griffey012
02-10-2011, 08:15 PM
I would rather have my 25th man be a washed up veteran who knows his role and make others around him better than a young player with potential who has yet to come close to tapping that potential and is going to have a very limited number of opportunities.

Cairo > Francisco at the end of the bench, easy decision.

edabbs44
02-10-2011, 09:23 PM
I could agree with that. Given that, I'd say that bringing Gomes back was the mistake. Because it basically means you either have to go without a lefty bat on the bench most days or you have to completely waste Chris Heisey.

I'm not sure that you actually need a lefty bat on the bench the way you need a righty. RHPs don't neutralize righties the way LHPs do to lefties.

mth123
02-11-2011, 04:30 AM
I would rather have my 25th man be a washed up veteran who knows his role and make others around him better than a young player with potential who has yet to come close to tapping that potential and is going to have a very limited number of opportunities.

Cairo > Francisco at the end of the bench, easy decision.

Problem is that the Reds don't need a guy to be at the end of the bench. They need a guy to start twice per week at 3B. Rolen probably shouldn't start more than three days in a row as a general rule of thumb. He could play more in short stints in important series or against a run of pitchers that might be a tough match for Francisco, but there are enough ham and eggers in the majors that Francisco could be spotted in twice per week and do pretty well while getting some major league experience and providing more of a threat when Rolen sits. I'd rather have .850 OPS Rolen starting 110 games or so than .750 OPS Rolen starting 140 games. Since a lefty bat for that role and as a PH and occassional starter at 1B would probably get 300 PAs, I think we're overstating how much more he would develop in AAA. Francisco will probably go down, use the same approach as he's been using and OPS .900 again. No real development there. Just wasted time fooling with Cairo.

lollipopcurve
02-11-2011, 07:54 AM
Problem is that the Reds don't need a guy to be at the end of the bench. They need a guy to start twice per week at 3B.

They've been talking about Renteria filling in at 3B.

Griffey012
02-11-2011, 08:38 AM
Problem is that the Reds don't need a guy to be at the end of the bench. They need a guy to start twice per week at 3B. Rolen probably shouldn't start more than three days in a row as a general rule of thumb. He could play more in short stints in important series or against a run of pitchers that might be a tough match for Francisco, but there are enough ham and eggers in the majors that Francisco could be spotted in twice per week and do pretty well while getting some major league experience and providing more of a threat when Rolen sits. I'd rather have .850 OPS Rolen starting 110 games or so than .750 OPS Rolen starting 140 games. Since a lefty bat for that role and as a PH and occassional starter at 1B would probably get 300 PAs, I think we're overstating how much more he would develop in AAA. Francisco will probably go down, use the same approach as he's been using and OPS .900 again. No real development there. Just wasted time fooling with Cairo.

I am with lollipop here, I was under the belief Renteria would play some 3rd or else Janish would scoot over while Renteria played short. I fully understand Rolen needs all kinds of rest, we saw that last year.

Francisco looked pretty all or nothing last season and it was clear he has some major holes in his swing. Outside of an occasional bomb, he doesn't provide much more offensively than Cairo at this point.

bucksfan2
02-11-2011, 10:05 AM
I could agree with that. Given that, I'd say that bringing Gomes back was the mistake. Because it basically means you either have to go without a lefty bat on the bench most days or you have to completely waste Chris Heisey.

What exactly are they wasting in Chris Heisey? I am still waiting on him to become the player that many thought he would be. He is a nice player to have in your organization but not someone to count on for a full season. If he is sent to AAA to start the season it really isn't a bad thing. The baseball season is full of injuries and players moving from AAA to the bigs. Its not big deal if you ask me.

IMO the roster is pretty much a forgone conclusion with only a handful of spots up in the air. Mainly who becomes the 5th OF, who are the 4th and 5th starters as well as maybe a bull pen spot.

Far East
02-11-2011, 10:20 AM
I'm not sure that you actually need a lefty bat on the bench the way you need a righty. RHPs don't neutralize righties the way LHPs do to lefties.
I was wondering that also. Dusty is unlikely to use a lefty PH for most of his righty-hitting position players -- Phillips, Stubbs, Rolen, Hernandez/Hannigan.

Most pinch-hitting is for the pitcher. It might be nice to have a LH PH, but basically what you need is anybody better in the batter's box than the pitcher to improve the offense's chances.

Kc61
02-11-2011, 11:22 AM
Most pinch-hitting is for the pitcher. It might be nice to have a LH PH, but basically what you need is anybody better in the batter's box than the pitcher to improve the offense's chances.


The idea is not just to have someone better than the pitcher.

The idea is to have somebody on the bench who can pinch hit against a righty hurler and have the percentages on his side. That is typically a lefty bat.

The Reds have only three lefty hitters among their projected 13-man group of position players. There should be more.

The three slots at issue here are Heisey, Cairo and Renteria. One of these slots should be filled by a lefty hitter. If not, it's a deficiency.

Not the end of the world, but a deficiency nevertheless.

mth123
02-11-2011, 07:58 PM
I am with lollipop here, I was under the belief Renteria would play some 3rd or else Janish would scoot over while Renteria played short. I fully understand Rolen needs all kinds of rest, we saw that last year.

Francisco looked pretty all or nothing last season and it was clear he has some major holes in his swing. Outside of an occasional bomb, he doesn't provide much more offensively than Cairo at this point.

I'm under the belief too and I hate the idea. Basically a line-up with any two of Renteria, Janish and Cairo is at least one lousey hitter too many.

Like I said, spot Francisco against the right pitchers, and he'll hit. He's basically hitting those same crummy pitchers in AAA. I wouldn't play him against a lefty or Halladay or some real deceptive guy, but he can match up with power arms and weak fifth starter types. With Rolen out, too much is lost with Cairo, Renteria or Janish at 3B. I'm guessing because of it, Rolen will play more than he should making him less effective when he's in there. When he sits, I want somebody who can be a threat in the 5 or 6 hole in there.

CesarGeronimo
02-11-2011, 08:54 PM
Heisey will never win the duel with Gomes against LHP. An .878 OPS is hard to beat. Sure Heisey's D may make up the difference but not enough for the coaches and management to realize that.

I'm not sure how much this stat will matter in determining roles on the team. I asked Dusty about the value of OPS. He said he prefers FedEx.