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View Full Version : Are we going to be content with mediocrity in LF this year?



takealeake
02-07-2011, 07:22 PM
I really hope not. I hope we try to make a deal if this potential Gomes/Lewis platoon doesn't work out. Anyone have any predictions?

arkimadee
02-07-2011, 07:32 PM
We had a pretty good year last year with the Gomes/Nix platoon. I'm not worried

Kingspoint
02-07-2011, 09:26 PM
I expect Chris Heisey to take over that spot with his play on the field and at the plate. Dusty won't have any choice but to play Heisey.

Vottomatic
02-07-2011, 09:44 PM
I expect to acquire Chin-Soo Choo at any moment. :D

webbbj
02-07-2011, 10:22 PM
i think fred lewis could be a fun player. if neither of the 3 workout, which i seem to think would be unlikely then im sure they will look for a hot player, on an expiring deal thats on a bad team to come in if the price is right.

lonewolf371
02-07-2011, 11:52 PM
It will be a platoon with Lewis and Gomes getting starts depending on the SP each night. I expect average to above average production, similar to what we had at catcher last year. The Reds won't be adding any more stars, so you all can calm down.

NeilHamburger
02-08-2011, 12:16 AM
I think if the Reds play well, and draw big crowds you'll see a trade for a Grady Sizemore or someone like that for left. Just my hunch.

Quatitos
02-08-2011, 12:19 AM
It will be a platoon with Lewis and Gomes getting starts depending on the SP each night. I expect average to above average production, similar to what we had at catcher last year. The Reds won't be adding any more stars, so you all can calm down.
I would definitely predict above average production as long as they are used in a platoon role.

Using Gomes' splits for his career (slightly higher than his down year in 2010) he hit .276/.371/.507/.878 against LHP. Fred Lewis' splits for his career .280/.354/.442/.796. Assume in a platoon split that Lewis would play more just because there are more right handed pitchers in the league, lets say a 3/5 to 2/5 split of PAs. That would give you a line somewhere around .278/.360/.468/.828, which would be an above average line and an improvement over the production from the LF spot last year.

Last year the LF position produced a .275/.335/.441/.776 line. This was about average for the LF position with a sOPS+ of 101. So a ~50 point increase in OPS would be a nice upgrade to the LF position.

texasdave
02-08-2011, 12:34 AM
I would definitely predict above average production as long as they are used in a platoon role.

Using Gomes' splits for his career (slightly higher than his down year in 2010) he hit .276/.371/.507/.878 against LHP. Fred Lewis' splits for his career .280/.354/.442/.796. Assume in a platoon split that Lewis would play more just because there are more right handed pitchers in the league, lets say a 3/5 to 2/5 split of PAs. That would give you a line somewhere around .278/.360/.468/.828, which would be an above average line and an improvement over the production from the LF spot last year.

Last year the LF position produced a .275/.335/.441/.776 line. This was about average for the LF position with a sOPS+ of 101. So a ~50 point increase in OPS would be a nice upgrade to the LF position.

Nix and Gomes weren't used in a straight platoon. Even after it was evident that Gomes had come back to earth and Nix was en fuego.
It may be different this year who knows. But I doubt it.

Quatitos
02-08-2011, 01:05 AM
Nix and Gomes weren't used in a straight platoon. Even after it was evident that Gomes had come back to earth and Nix was en fuego.
It may be different this year who knows. But I doubt it.I think you will see Lewis used more than Nix since Lewis has shown his ability in the leadoff spot (although nix had a career high .350 OBP to his next highest season average of .293). I'm also sure that Nix was going to start getting more playing time if he hadn't gotten injured near mid/late august.

Last year Gomes was also being given more of a chance to try and be an every day player instead of a platoon player. Gomes showed that his labeling as a platoon player was right and I think this year you will see a lot more of him being platooned since the Jonny Gomes everyday player experiment is over.

gilpdawg
02-08-2011, 04:53 AM
I think if the Reds play well, and draw big crowds you'll see a trade for a Grady Sizemore or someone like that for left. Just my hunch.

If Sizemore has a bounce back year, which I don't really see happening, with all the problems he's had staying healthy, he still probably isn't worth 7.5 million, which is what he's set to make this year. If he's a 5-7 WAR player, then yeah, sure, go for it, but sadly, because I think he's a good player, that ship has sailed. Guy's had three surgeries in the past two years, including a microfracture surgery, and that's hard to come back from full speed.

The Indians are a prime example of the dangers in signing your young players to long term deals. They have 20.5 million tied up on Hafner and Sizemore alone, and both guys have been next to worthless for two years now, although Hafner did produce when he played last season, he only had 396 ABs, which is not worth 13 million bucks.

lonewolf371
02-08-2011, 11:10 AM
I would definitely predict above average production as long as they are used in a platoon role.

Using Gomes' splits for his career (slightly higher than his down year in 2010) he hit .276/.371/.507/.878 against LHP. Fred Lewis' splits for his career .280/.354/.442/.796. Assume in a platoon split that Lewis would play more just because there are more right handed pitchers in the league, lets say a 3/5 to 2/5 split of PAs. That would give you a line somewhere around .278/.360/.468/.828, which would be an above average line and an improvement over the production from the LF spot last year.

Last year the LF position produced a .275/.335/.441/.776 line. This was about average for the LF position with a sOPS+ of 101. So a ~50 point increase in OPS would be a nice upgrade to the LF position.
That's just the offensive side, though. Keep in mind that both guys have shown below average to terrible ability to field their position. This resulted in Gomes being rated below replacement level and Lewis being rated barely above replacement level. And with Gomes, even in a platoon role he's managed a UZR lower than -5 the past few years. Lewis had -6.1 with only 480 PA.

The defense could still better when averaged in with Lewis. If Gomes gets 40% of the starts against lefties and Lewis gets 60% of the starts against righties, we may be looking at something in the range of -13 UZR over the season. Probably a little bit better, since last year was most likely Lewis' low point. If Lewis improves back to his old average fielding level, then we may be looking at -7 or so. That's going to knock off a lot of runs produced by their offense.

Quatitos
02-08-2011, 01:31 PM
That's just the offensive side, though. Keep in mind that both guys have shown below average to terrible ability to field their position. This resulted in Gomes being rated below replacement level and Lewis being rated barely above replacement level. And with Gomes, even in a platoon role he's managed a UZR lower than -5 the past few years. Lewis had -6.1 with only 480 PA.

The defense could still better when averaged in with Lewis. If Gomes gets 40% of the starts against lefties and Lewis gets 60% of the starts against righties, we may be looking at something in the range of -13 UZR over the season. Probably a little bit better, since last year was most likely Lewis' low point. If Lewis improves back to his old average fielding level, then we may be looking at -7 or so. That's going to knock off a lot of runs produced by their offense.

Last year was really the only time Lewis had a bad UZR in the past 3 years, and if you average out the last 3 years he is -0.4 for UZR in LF, so right about at 0. I would assume that Gomes gets about half of the time in the field as last year, so you can probably chalk him up for about somewhere between -6 to -9 UZR. Assuming Heisey gets in the mix as well, depending on how much playing time he gets you could see something around 2-4 UZR (bad me since there isn't a bunch of data to back this up but he is a good fielder) from him. So depending on injuries, and who gets how much playing time you could see from -2 to -7 UZR, a bit better to a lot better than the reds LF situation last year with a -9.1 UZR from left field. So I guess I would see something like -7 as the low point as opposed to you seeing it as the high point, but if thats attained it will be a net improvement from last year, along with an offensive improvement

Numbers aside (I'm sure we could argue about specifics all day), it is pretty safe to say that the defensive situation is more addition by subtraction in that Gomes will get a less innings in left field (hopefully) and that is a good thing for defense as well as offense.

Fangraphs also had a segment on this about a month ago, and it was linked in some other thread already, but it is pertinent to the conversation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lewis-and-gomes-perfect-platoon-partners/

OGB
02-08-2011, 02:33 PM
I expect Chris Heisey to take over that spot with his play on the field and at the plate. Dusty won't have any choice but to play Heisey.

I think if Heisey gets enough consistent ABs between the 3 outfield spots, that he will really blossom this season. I could definitely see him as the primary LF by year's end unless Gomes/Lewis exceed their career averages this year.

A starting OF of Bruce, Stubbs, and Heisey gives the Reds one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.

brm7675
02-08-2011, 04:55 PM
I really hope not. I hope we try to make a deal if this potential Gomes/Lewis platoon doesn't work out. Anyone have any predictions?

While it's not great, I personally am more concerned about our Left side of the infield. If Dusty goes the AARP route with Edgar and Rolen playing the majority of time we could really be in BIG trouble.:(

naptown
02-08-2011, 05:15 PM
While it's not great, I personally am more concerned about our Left side of the infield. If Dusty goes the AARP route with Edgar and Rolen playing the majority of time we could really be in BIG trouble.:(

I guess you are not aware that Rolen was the second best fielding 3rd baseman in the NL last year? I dont have any concerns at all about our defense in the infield.

PhillipsHead
02-09-2011, 11:09 AM
Are we done complaining about last years LF production? Seriously.....Gomes did fine, had excellent power numbers, and Nix filled the rest. Enough about this topic...

Pony Boy
02-09-2011, 12:30 PM
I am not convinced that Dusty will actually platoon Lewis and Gomes. But if he did a strict platoon, based on 2010 numbers, we would see a .776 OPS versus righties, and an .856 OPS versus lefties. And Lewis' numbers probably get a bump moving to GABP.

That isnt mediocre.

krm1580
02-09-2011, 02:44 PM
I guess you are not aware that Rolen was the second best fielding 3rd baseman in the NL last year? I dont have any concerns at all about our defense in the infield.

I don't think he was necessarily was referring to the defense of the guys on the left side as much as their total production.

SS for me is not that big of a deal. I think a Janish/Renteria platoon can easilly match a Janish/Ocab platoon. Lets face it, the bar is not very high.

3B on the other hand is the single biggest concern for me coming into this season. Is the 2011 Scott Rolen going to be the pre-All Star Scott Rolen or the post All-Star Scott Rolen? How many games will be play? Who is the back up.

If Stubbs and Bruce play the full season similar to they way they played from August on this is not as much a concern. But if Rolen is a .750OPs guy in the cleanup spot and they don't step up I think this offense struggles.

Natty Redlocks
02-09-2011, 04:06 PM
I guess we could move Stubbs over to left if it'll make you feel better

defender
02-09-2011, 04:40 PM
Walt did bolster the OF last August with Edmonds. It is was also reported that he tried to land Cliff Lee. I think if the Reds are in contention, they will be able to make a trade.

brm7675
02-09-2011, 04:51 PM
I guess you are not aware that Rolen was the second best fielding 3rd baseman in the NL last year? I dont have any concerns at all about our defense in the infield.

Your kidding right? Rolen is great at things hit right at him...but ask him to make the tough play or move to his left or right....please winning the GG means nothing.

brm7675
02-09-2011, 04:52 PM
Are we done complaining about last years LF production? Seriously.....Gomes did fine, had excellent power numbers, and Nix filled the rest. Enough about this topic...

Gomes was not if the worse near the bottom for LF last year, R U okay with that?

malcontent
02-09-2011, 05:51 PM
Your kidding right? Rolen is great at things hit right at him...but ask him to make the tough play or move to his left or right....please winning the GG means nothing.
I have to agree with you on this, brm7675.

Dude had ZERO flexibility/range out there, at least the last few months.

Unless Walt hired a full-time physical therapist for Rolen over the winter, I think we may have real trouble at 3rd this year.

brm7675
02-09-2011, 06:44 PM
I have to agree with you on this, brm7675.

Dude had ZERO flexibility/range out there, at least the last few months.

Unless Walt hired a full-time physical therapist for Rolen over the winter, I think we may have real trouble at 3rd this year.

I like Rolen but at his age he is not going to get better.

VottoFan54
02-10-2011, 12:19 AM
Rolen will be fine if we use him correctly, he shouldn't be playing 133 games like he did last year at 35 years old you are going to wear down with that type of playing time as evidenced by his decline in production after the all star break.

The other 162 games should be split up between Janish and Cairo. IMO what third base will come down to is weather or not we overuse Rolen and how Janish and Cairo will perform, in extended playing time last year Cairo did a great job filling in, but it is a long shot that he repeats that again this year.

757690
02-10-2011, 03:40 AM
Walt did bolster the OF last August with Edmonds. It is was also reported that he tried to land Cliff Lee. I think if the Reds are in contention, they will be able to make a trade.

The Reds are in an even better position that last year when it comes to a mid season acquisition.

They'll have Alonso, Francisco, Frazier, Valaika, one of the starting pitchers, one of Mes and Grandel, and maybe even Cordero if one of the young bullpen arms is able to convince the FO that they can close. Not too many teams will have more talent available than the Reds.

Tadasimha
02-10-2011, 10:57 AM
Gomes was not if the worse near the bottom for LF last year, R U okay with that?

Looking at the Sporting News baseball preview and checked some stats:

Gomes' fielding percentage was .981 and he made 5 errors. Ryan Braun, the starting left-fielder in the All-star game had a fielding percentage of .990 with 3 errors. Matt Holliday was .989 with 3 errors. Carlos Lee was a .969 with 6 errors. Soriano was .968 with 7 errors. There are 23 outfielders with averages in the .980s out 50 OFs with 147 or more total chances.

He's really right in the middle of the pack.

bounty37h
02-10-2011, 11:57 AM
Walt did bolster the OF last August with Edmonds. It is was also reported that he tried to land Cliff Lee. I think if the Reds are in contention, they will be able to make a trade.

I dont know that I would call adding Edmonds last year "bolstering" anything, but I do hope your right they will make moves when/if needed.

bounty37h
02-10-2011, 11:59 AM
Gomes was not if the worse near the bottom for LF last year, R U okay with that?

uhm, I might be ok if I knew what in the world this means?

bounty37h
02-10-2011, 12:02 PM
The Reds are in an even better position that last year when it comes to a mid season acquisition.

They'll have Alonso, Francisco, Frazier, Valaika, one of the starting pitchers, one of Mes and Grandel, and maybe even Cordero if one of the young bullpen arms is able to convince the FO that they can close. Not too many teams will have more talent available than the Reds.

I do agre withthis, w ehave lots of trade chips for when they are needed. I dont think I would include Mes in that list though, as we dont have much else in the catching dept in our system (not sayig right trade wouldnt use if needeed, but I think we need a real catcher in our system for post Hernandez days to help Hanny. Dont come at me with Grandel.

PhillipsHead
02-10-2011, 12:28 PM
Gomes was not if the worse near the bottom for LF last year, R U okay with that?

When compared to regular NL Left Fielders...

Jonny Gomes hit .266, 6th
Jonny Gomes hit 18 HR, 7th (on a down power year)
Jonny Gomes drove in 86 runs, 5th (T-20th in the entire NL)
Jonny Gomes OPS'd .758, 5th (47th in NL)

The jury is out on his defense (middle of the pack - at best), but when you add into the fact that he didn't even play a full season in LF and his numbers are only topped by the Matt Holidays, CarGos, Ryan Brauns and Jayson Werths of the league, that's pretty damn impressive.

So seriously everyone needs to get off Jonny Gomes jock. The guy gives 110%, is a team player and has a great work ethic...leave the guy alone...

brm7675
02-10-2011, 04:06 PM
When compared to regular NL Left Fielders...

Jonny Gomes hit .266, 6th
Jonny Gomes hit 18 HR, 7th (on a down power year)
Jonny Gomes drove in 86 runs, 5th (T-20th in the entire NL)
Jonny Gomes OPS'd .758, 5th (47th in NL)

The jury is out on his defense (middle of the pack - at best), but when you add into the fact that he didn't even play a full season in LF and his numbers are only topped by the Matt Holidays, CarGos, Ryan Brauns and Jayson Werths of the league, that's pretty damn impressive.

So seriously everyone needs to get off Jonny Gomes jock. The guy gives 110%, is a team player and has a great work ethic...leave the guy alone...

Take those numbers and look at WHEN they happened. What kind of numbers did he post after July 1?

OGB
02-10-2011, 04:24 PM
So seriously everyone needs to get off Jonny Gomes jock. The guy gives 110%, is a team player and has a great work ethic...leave the guy alone...

Giving more than 100% is a mathematical impossibility.

lonewolf371
02-10-2011, 06:31 PM
Giving more than 100% is a mathematical impossibility.
Good thing it's a figure of speech rather than a calculation.

Roush's socks
02-11-2011, 01:21 AM
Take those numbers and look at WHEN they happened. What kind of numbers did he post after July 1?

Gomes has been around for a few years now and I don't think he forgot how to hit. At this point he is what he is. And what he is, is a average offensive LF and a below average defensive LF. I think people are too harsh on him. He had a nigh BA with runners on last year, even later in the year when he was struggling. That is why he had high RBI's. He hit in the clutch. I know the SABR people say that is luck, but I still believe that baseball like every other sport has some players who are clutch and some who aren't.

RadfordVA
02-11-2011, 01:46 AM
Take those numbers and look at WHEN they happened. What kind of numbers did he post after July 1?

He was streaky, no doubt about that. However people act like he fell on his face after his ridiculous May. Don't forget he was pretty good down the stretch. These are his numbers in Sept/Oct.

.280 .325 .421 .745

The main attribute the guy has his ability to get a clutch hit. Would hate to see where the Reds wouldve been without him last year. He was clearly behind Votto as the second best guy to have up with men on base. Until Bruce and Stubbs become more of an impact in those situations I wouldnt wanna go without Gomes. You cant just plug in anybody and get this production with men on.

.295 .358 .484 .843

signalhome
02-11-2011, 05:44 AM
Looking at the Sporting News baseball preview and checked some stats:

Gomes' fielding percentage was .981 and he made 5 errors. Ryan Braun, the starting left-fielder in the All-star game had a fielding percentage of .990 with 3 errors. Matt Holliday was .989 with 3 errors. Carlos Lee was a .969 with 6 errors. Soriano was .968 with 7 errors. There are 23 outfielders with averages in the .980s out 50 OFs with 147 or more total chances.

He's really right in the middle of the pack.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0

I think this is what he's referring to. Sort it by UZR and you'll find Gomes was the third-worst outfielder in all of baseball. You can't just use fielding percentage, as you can't make errors on balls you don't get to -- you have to also include a fielder's ability to make it to the ball. That's where Gomes is really, really terrible. He has no range.

signalhome
02-11-2011, 05:56 AM
He was streaky, no doubt about that. However people act like he fell on his face after his ridiculous May. Don't forget he was pretty good down the stretch. These are his numbers in Sept/Oct.

.280 .325 .421 .745

The main attribute the guy has his ability to get a clutch hit. Would hate to see where the Reds wouldve been without him last year. He was clearly behind Votto as the second best guy to have up with men on base. Until Bruce and Stubbs become more of an impact in those situations I wouldnt wanna go without Gomes. You cant just plug in anybody and get this production with men on.

.295 .358 .484 .843

Got to remember that hits with RISP is a very fluky statistic. It wavers a lot from year to year. In the last year Gomes had over 340 ABs (2007), his slash line was .202/.292/.371/.663. Not exactly the 1.000+ OPS he had last year.

A good person to bring up in this conversation is Edwin Encarnacion. In 2007, EE posted a slash line of .360/.447/.500/.947 with RISP. This led to a lot of people going on about EE being a clutch producer, someone you want up with RISP. However, as tends to happen, those numbers severely regressed in the next year. In 2008, his slash line was .234/.370/.346/.716. That's still a really nice OBP, but the rest of his numbers were way down. 2009: .214/.326/.386/.712.

Gomes very well may repeat last year's performance with RISP, but keep in mind that RISP numbers tend to wildly fluctuate year-to-year. Definitely not a statistic I'm willing to hang my hat on.

Let us say, though, that some players are better with RISP and some are better with nobody on (I don't believe this to be true). Isn't getting a hit with nobody on just as important? After all, that great RISP guy can't knock anyone in if they're not on base. Getting on base with nobody on is every bit as important as getting a hit with RISP, because you have to get people on base in order to knock them in.

RadfordVA
02-11-2011, 07:07 AM
Got to remember that hits with RISP is a very fluky statistic. It wavers a lot from year to year. In the last year Gomes had over 340 ABs (2007), his slash line was .202/.292/.371/.663. Not exactly the 1.000+ OPS he had last year.

A good person to bring up in this conversation is Edwin Encarnacion. In 2007, EE posted a slash line of .360/.447/.500/.947 with RISP. This led to a lot of people going on about EE being a clutch producer, someone you want up with RISP. However, as tends to happen, those numbers severely regressed in the next year. In 2008, his slash line was .234/.370/.346/.716. That's still a really nice OBP, but the rest of his numbers were way down. 2009: .214/.326/.386/.712.
.

I'm not willing to concede that production with men on base is any more flukey than another stat. You quote edwins dropoff with risp yet his numbers across the board plummeted. So how does that show runners on stat was flukey? That would make every stat flukey. His average in general went .289 to .251 to .225 in those years you quoted. Seems his case was someone who had a good year, teams figured him out and he never adjusted.

Gomes may revert back to his tampa days or the fact that he is getting regular at bats now he will stay the course. After all in 2009 he produced great numbers in cincy with runners on as well.

Some people will always consider clutch stats like that flukey because they don't wanna factor in human element. I'm on the other side. I pulled Adam Dunns OPS with runners on the last few years to see how consistent it was and even for a streaky guy it didnt seem very flukey.

2010 .952
2009 .904
2008 .911
2007 .936
2006 .997
2005 .949


I think his overall numbers probably moved around more than that. But to the point I can pull guys whose numbers stayed around same area and someone else can pull numbers of guys who had drop-offs. Same could go for any stat.

DannyB
02-11-2011, 08:53 AM
Erardi's look at LF

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110209/SPT04/302090092/Baker-faces-tough-decisions

And here's why: A platoon might work … or it might not. Gomes hits lefties much better than Lewis hits righties, a fact that is likely going to hurt the offense the more a straight platoon is followed.

texasdave
02-11-2011, 09:16 AM
Erardi's look at LF

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...ough-decisions


And here's why: A platoon might work … or it might not. Gomes hits lefties much better than Lewis hits righties, a fact that is likely going to hurt the offense the more a straight platoon is followed.

In which universe does this make any sense at all? If Lewis hits righties better than Gomes and Gomes hits lefties better than Lewis; then a strict platoon makes the most sense. Maybe I am missing something here. But a lot of time Erardi's articles don't make a whole lot of sense to me.

DannyB
02-11-2011, 06:23 PM
Erardi's look at LF

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...ough-decisions



In which universe does this make any sense at all? If Lewis hits righties better than Gomes and Gomes hits lefties better than Lewis; then a strict platoon makes the most sense. Maybe I am missing something here. But a lot of time Erardi's articles don't make a whole lot of sense to me.

I think what he was trying to say was: Lewis isn't as good at his specialty as Gomes at his but Lewis will get more playing time because there are more RH pitchers.
He goes on to say Lewis is not the greatest outfielder defensively.

JeremiahHorsley
02-12-2011, 01:39 PM
I see the Fred Lewis/Jonny Gomes platoon going pretty good. Fred is a really good athlete and I think he can produce from the leadoff position. If he doesn't produce, we are going to fall back on Stubbs/Phillips for leadoff. Which I don't see as a viable long term option. I like the idea of pursueing a Grady Sizemore if he proves he's healthy enough to play. He has played solid defense throughout his career and can hit leadoff. In the end, as long as mediocracy isn't holding the team back, the team will be content with it. Whether the fans like it or not.

lonewolf371
02-12-2011, 01:46 PM
I see the Fred Lewis/Jonny Gomes platoon going pretty good. Fred is a really good athlete and I think he can produce from the leadoff position. If he doesn't produce, we are going to fall back on Stubbs/Phillips for leadoff. Which I don't see as a viable long term option. I like the idea of pursueing a Grady Sizemore if he proves he's healthy enough to play. He has played solid defense throughout his career and can hit leadoff. In the end, as long as mediocracy isn't holding the team back, the team will be content with it. Whether the fans like it or not.
Grady Sizemore might fit. He would fetch a fairly high price if he plays well, but with Alonso blocked and the excess starting pitching that the Reds have, a deal could be possible.

Quatitos
02-12-2011, 04:15 PM
Grady Sizemore might fit. He would fetch a fairly high price if he plays well, but with Alonso blocked and the excess starting pitching that the Reds have, a deal could be possible.

I don't know if Alonso would be the perfect fit since Cleveland is giving Matt Laporta his chance at first base this year. Now Laporta can be moved into LF if the indians wanted to get Alonso, but in the minor leagues Laporta showed a lot more promise than Alonso although he has not been able to show it at the major league level. Neither has Alonso either, but thats more for lack of time to show it. The Indians DH is also occupied by Travis Hafner primarily so neither of them is likely to move him out of that spot with the money he is being paid.

As for Grady Sizemore, I don't know if the Indians really have anyone to replace him this year. The Indians last year had the worst CF offensively with a mighty OPS of .619 and a -2 WAR. Defensively they were second worst with a whopping -25.7 UZR. With that big of a hole in their lineup without Sizemore and no good replacement apparent, it would probably take a lot to get them to give him up.

Someone I might target if the Gomes/Lewis does not work out is David DeJesus for a midseason trade. If the A's are out of it by the trade deadline, the cost for Dejesus would not be nearly as high as for Sizemore, along with not having to worry about Sizemore's lingering injury concerns. Since Oakland didn't give up too much to aquire Dejesus, taking him off their hands at the trade deadline if they are out of it should be about just as cheap, especially compared to what it would take to get Sizemore.

Fun fact I saw while I was writing this, in 2005, David Dejesus had a 3.5 WAR, while Kansas City as a whole put up a 2.9 WAR (including Dejesus).

signalhome
02-12-2011, 07:11 PM
I'm not willing to concede that production with men on base is any more flukey than another stat. You quote edwins dropoff with risp yet his numbers across the board plummeted. So how does that show runners on stat was flukey? That would make every stat flukey. His average in general went .289 to .251 to .225 in those years you quoted. Seems his case was someone who had a good year, teams figured him out and he never adjusted.

Gomes may revert back to his tampa days or the fact that he is getting regular at bats now he will stay the course. After all in 2009 he produced great numbers in cincy with runners on as well.

Some people will always consider clutch stats like that flukey because they don't wanna factor in human element. I'm on the other side. I pulled Adam Dunns OPS with runners on the last few years to see how consistent it was and even for a streaky guy it didnt seem very flukey.

2010 .952
2009 .904
2008 .911
2007 .936
2006 .997
2005 .949


I think his overall numbers probably moved around more than that. But to the point I can pull guys whose numbers stayed around same area and someone else can pull numbers of guys who had drop-offs. Same could go for any stat.

That's exactly my point -- usually someone's production with RISP mirrors their actual numbers. A major stray from that is usually an anomaly. The main reason for Dunn's improved production, if you look, is a major increase in walks in those situations. That is very likely the result of pitchers pitching around him. I'm looking at RISP, not just runners on, and Dunn's numbers are pretty much exactly what you'd expect. His BA/SLG are on par with what he did in other situations while his OBP receives a major boost -- again, this is likely due to pitchers pitching around him. Dunn was ridiculously good with RISP in 2009. However, this was an anomaly, as throughout the rest of his career he has been exactly the same as he was in other situations (that is, still very good, but not the otherworldly numbers he posted in 2009).

Even if I were to concede that Gomes' is better with runners on (I'm not), there is no way he is better to the tune of 0.170 OPS (.672 OPS last year with nobody on, .842 with runners on). That is an absurd leap. And you ignored my other point. What about that .672 OPS with nobody on? Again, even if I were to surrender that Gomes is just a god with runners on, why is it okay to simply discount how pathetic he is with the bases empty? Getting on base is just as important with the bases empty as it is with runners on. As I said, runners have to be on base in order to be driven in.

UPRedsFan
02-12-2011, 08:12 PM
Here's some data to try and answer the question of this thread.

Based on last year's stats...

Gomes against left handed pitching: .378 .479

Lewis against right handed pitching: .338 .440

That's a range of .778 - .857 OPS from the left field position.

I think I'll be content with that.

Roush's socks
02-13-2011, 01:27 AM
Given past performance and accounting for the platoon factor, Lewis/Gomes should wind up with a combined 2.5-3.5 WAR. To find a single player who is going to go significantly above that would be hard pressed. The numer of 5-7 WAR guys out there is pretty slim. So to trade away a promising young player for someone who is only going to make you slightly better isn't worth it. I'm sure if the FO could trade Yonder and Lecure + garbage for an Allstar they would do it.

naptown
02-13-2011, 11:36 AM
Even if I were to concede that Gomes' is better with runners on (I'm not), there is no way he is better to the tune of 0.170 OPS (.672 OPS last year with nobody on, .842 with runners on). That is an absurd leap. And you ignored my other point. What about that .672 OPS with nobody on? Again, even if I were to surrender that Gomes is just a god with runners on, why is it okay to simply discount how pathetic he is with the bases empty? Getting on base is just as important with the bases empty as it is with runners on. As I said, runners have to be on base in order to be driven in.


Some guys are simply clutch in crunch time. Jordan, Bird and Reggie Miller for example. Joe Montana, Adam Vinatieri and Carson... errrrr, Peyton Manning to name a few others. Guys that thrive in the big moment.

There is no rhyme or reason for it other than that some people's mental make up was born for the big moment. They relish it.

One season does not make greatness, but there is no denying Gomes had a great season in crunch time in 2010.

OGB
02-14-2011, 09:11 PM
Good thing it's a figure of speech rather than a calculation.

So, what was it like growing up without a sense of humor?

lonewolf371
02-15-2011, 12:20 AM
Some guys are simply clutch in crunch time. Jordan, Bird and Reggie Miller for example. Joe Montana, Adam Vinatieri and Carson... errrrr, Peyton Manning to name a few others. Guys that thrive in the big moment.

There is no rhyme or reason for it other than that some people's mental make up was born for the big moment. They relish it.

One season does not make greatness, but there is no denying Gomes had a great season in crunch time in 2010.
In baseball there's so much more luck involved than other sports. It's a lot harder to judge "clutchness", I'd prefer to discount it in baseball.


So, what was it like growing up without a sense of humor?
Don't you be talking about my childhood.

In all seriousness, I thought my comment was just as obviously over-uptight as yours.

naptown
02-15-2011, 09:29 AM
In baseball there's so much more luck involved than other sports. It's a lot harder to judge "clutchness", I'd prefer to discount it in baseball.

Lmao. Whatever you say there, Sparky.

signalhome
02-15-2011, 04:27 PM
Some guys are simply clutch in crunch time. Jordan, Bird and Reggie Miller for example. Joe Montana, Adam Vinatieri and Carson... errrrr, Peyton Manning to name a few others. Guys that thrive in the big moment.

There is no rhyme or reason for it other than that some people's mental make up was born for the big moment. They relish it.

One season does not make greatness, but there is no denying Gomes had a great season in crunch time in 2010.

Montana's playoffs numbers are right in-line with his regular season numbers, same for Reggie Miller. Bird was actually much less efficient in the playoffs than in the regular season. Vinatieri's playoffs FG% is 0.6% higher than his regular season FG%. Manning's numbers are slightly worse in the playoffs, but not enough that I'd call it statistically significant.

If you're specifically talking about end-of-game situations, a lot of perceived greatness in those situations is remembering the ones they make and not remembering the ones they miss. Take Kobe Bryant for example. Most people think he is the greatest clutch player alive. However, Kobe is only slightly above league average with the game on the line, and is well below a lot of other big name players (reference: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/24200/the-truth-about-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time).

naptown
02-15-2011, 10:55 PM
C'Mon Man!

LeDoux
02-15-2011, 11:09 PM
Giving more than 100% is a mathematical impossibility.

Not for Mr. Gomes. He give's 100% of himself - add the ragelust bonus he gains from the gallon of human blood he consumes every full moon= total ~110%.

Roush's socks
02-15-2011, 11:44 PM
Montana's playoffs numbers are right in-line with his regular season numbers, same for Reggie Miller. Bird was actually much less efficient in the playoffs than in the regular season. Vinatieri's playoffs FG% is 0.6% higher than his regular season FG%. Manning's numbers are slightly worse in the playoffs, but not enough that I'd call it statistically significant.

If you're specifically talking about end-of-game situations, a lot of perceived greatness in those situations is remembering the ones they make and not remembering the ones they miss. Take Kobe Bryant for example. Most people think he is the greatest clutch player alive. However, Kobe is only slightly above league average with the game on the line, and is well below a lot of other big name players (reference: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/24200/the-truth-about-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time).

There are guys in the NBA who hit game ending shots at a higher %, Kobe just isn't one of them.

This whole "there is no such thing as clutch" thing is ridiculous. All of the players you referred to like Peyton having lower #'s in the playoffs is meaningless, because teams play harder defense in the playoffs, and by definition you are playing playoff quality teams, while the regular season is much easier against good and bad teams. The comparison of regular season vs. playoff statistics shows nothing.

Anyone who has played sports knows there is such thing as clutch.

A lot of "clutch" actually refers to being able to perform against a good defense. In other words, a mistake hitter who only can hit bad pitches, will not do well against a great pitcher who has his stuff. Just like in basketball a guy who makes open 3's may become very ineffective in the playoffs once his open shots vanish and a defender has a hand in his face the whole time. So to me "clutch" mjeans being able to perform well even against the highest level of competition. That has nothing to do with "luck" or "small sample sizes."

signalhome
02-16-2011, 01:36 AM
There are guys in the NBA who hit game ending shots at a higher %, Kobe just isn't one of them.

This whole "there is no such thing as clutch" thing is ridiculous. All of the players you referred to like Peyton having lower #'s in the playoffs is meaningless, because teams play harder defense in the playoffs, and by definition you are playing playoff quality teams, while the regular season is much easier against good and bad teams. The comparison of regular season vs. playoff statistics shows nothing.

Anyone who has played sports knows there is such thing as clutch.

A lot of "clutch" actually refers to being able to perform against a good defense. In other words, a mistake hitter who only can hit bad pitches, will not do well against a great pitcher who has his stuff. Just like in basketball a guy who makes open 3's may become very ineffective in the playoffs once his open shots vanish and a defender has a hand in his face the whole time. So to me "clutch" mjeans being able to perform well even against the highest level of competition. That has nothing to do with "luck" or "small sample sizes."

I wasn't downing Peyton Manning, I was saying his playoff performance equates with his regular season performance (thus the "not statistically significant"). I think Peyton's bad reputation in the playoffs is completely unfounded.

We're just gonna have to agree to disagree on clutch existing, though. I'm not saying with absolute certainty clutch doesn't exist; I'm saying there is no statistical evidence to back it up. Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence, but since the studies so far have shown there to be no existence of clutch, I find it hard to believe. When a well-researched study comes out five years from now that shows, without a doubt, that certain players have some special ability to perform better with the game on the line, I'll be the first person to believe it. However, everything so far has shown that players who perform better in the clutch are players who perform better all the time, with these players showing no discernible difference based on situation.*

*Left-handed hitters who face a shift almost always have much better slash lines with runners on, because the shift is taken away. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11861 is a really good article about that. Also, most hitters (especially lefties) should feature a slight increase in numbers with runners on, as defensive positioning is not optimal (first baseman holding runner on first, middle infielders at double play depth).

Roush's socks
02-16-2011, 02:50 AM
I wasn't downing Peyton Manning, I was saying his playoff performance equates with his regular season performance (thus the "not statistically significant"). I think Peyton's bad reputation in the playoffs is completely unfounded.

We're just gonna have to agree to disagree on clutch existing, though. I'm not saying with absolute certainty clutch doesn't exist; I'm saying there is no statistical evidence to back it up. Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence, but since the studies so far have shown there to be no existence of clutch, I find it hard to believe. When a well-researched study comes out five years from now that shows, without a doubt, that certain players have some special ability to perform better with the game on the line, I'll be the first person to believe it. However, everything so far has shown that players who perform better in the clutch are players who perform better all the time, with these players showing no discernible difference based on situation.*

*Left-handed hitters who face a shift almost always have much better slash lines with runners on, because the shift is taken away. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11861 is a really good article about that. Also, most hitters (especially lefties) should feature a slight increase in numbers with runners on, as defensive positioning is not optimal (first baseman holding runner on first, middle infielders at double play depth).

Robert Horry

goreds2
02-19-2011, 12:03 AM
Alonso getting his feet wet in the outfield

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110218&content_id=16677774&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

Girevik
02-19-2011, 12:13 AM
Alonso getting his feet wet in the outfield

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110218&content_id=16677774&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

I hope it works out, but from what I've heard he barely has range for 1B. Hopefully those reports are wrong. Even if they are, I don't think that will come into effect this year at the major league level. At leat not until well into the season.