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camisadelgolf
02-14-2011, 11:13 AM
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_v0.6_and_still_too_early_2011_mlb_projected_ standings

Really though, there’s a three-way tie at the top, with only 0.6 wins separating Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St. Louis. The Cubs appear to have a stranglehold on fourth place. I think there are two other teams in the Central as well.
There's still plenty of time for things to change, but as of the new roster updates of February 8th, CAIRO projects a 41.8% chance of the Reds making it to the playoffs. Basically, the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals are all seen as equal with a very slight edge going to the Reds.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Reds 87.2 74.8 746 689 31.8% 10.0% 41.8%
Cards 86.6 75.4 744 689 31.0% 9.9% 40.9%
Brewers 86.6 75.4 746 688 26.5% 9.4% 35.9%
Cubs 75.8 86.2 722 768 7.3% 3.8% 11.1%
Astros 66.9 95.1 604 740 1.5% 1.0% 2.5%
Pirates 66.6 95.4 663 796 1.9% 1.1% 3.0%

redsfan30
02-14-2011, 11:18 AM
I'd hope Miguel would project his own team to do well.

;)

Ron Madden
02-14-2011, 11:18 AM
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_v0.6_and_still_too_early_2011_mlb_projected_ standings

There's still plenty of time for things to change, but as of the new roster updates of February 8th, CAIRO projects a 41.8% chance of the Reds making it to the playoffs. Basically, the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals are all seen as equal with a very slight edge going to the Reds.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Reds 87.2 74.8 746 689 31.8% 10.0% 41.8%
Cards 86.6 75.4 744 689 31.0% 9.9% 40.9%
Brewers 86.6 75.4 746 688 26.5% 9.4% 35.9%
Cubs 75.8 86.2 722 768 7.3% 3.8% 11.1%
Astros 66.9 95.1 604 740 1.5% 1.0% 2.5%
Pirates 66.6 95.4 663 796 1.9% 1.1% 3.0%

Thanks for sharing.

Looks to be an awful close three team race.

Edd Roush
02-14-2011, 12:33 PM
I'd hope Miguel would project his own team to do well.

;)

Lol, I made the same stupid joke inside my head when I read the thread title, but knew what was actually meant.

Anyone else think it's curious that CAIRO predicts the Pirates to have a better chance than the Astros to make the playoffs? Granted, both team's chances are very small, but I still found that interesting.

muddie
02-14-2011, 12:40 PM
CAIRO Projects Reds to Win NL Central


Three days removed from Mubarek and they're already picking baseball winners. Wow, that is progress.

Razor Shines
02-14-2011, 12:41 PM
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_v0.6_and_still_too_early_2011_mlb_projected_ standings

There's still plenty of time for things to change, but as of the new roster updates of February 8th, CAIRO projects a 41.8% chance of the Reds making it to the playoffs. Basically, the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals are all seen as equal with a very slight edge going to the Reds.

TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Reds 87.2 74.8 746 689 31.8% 10.0% 41.8%
Cards 86.6 75.4 744 689 31.0% 9.9% 40.9%
Brewers 86.6 75.4 746 688 26.5% 9.4% 35.9%
Cubs 75.8 86.2 722 768 7.3% 3.8% 11.1%
Astros 66.9 95.1 604 740 1.5% 1.0% 2.5%
Pirates 66.6 95.4 663 796 1.9% 1.1% 3.0%

I think that's pretty close to how it will shake out.

Homer Bailey
02-14-2011, 12:44 PM
CAIRO Projects Reds to Win NL Central


Three days removed from Mubarek and they're already picking baseball winners. Wow, that is progress.

LOL.

VR
02-14-2011, 01:45 PM
CAIRO Projects Reds to Win NL Central


Three days removed from Mubarek and they're already picking baseball winners. Wow, that is progress.

Let's not skim over this post too quickly, very high quality for pre-Spring Training.

mth123
02-14-2011, 06:34 PM
Who is better Miguel CAIRO or Bill PECOTA?

I wonder what Mario Mendoza would have to say about it?

Will M
02-14-2011, 09:39 PM
The 2010 Reds were 91-71. Their Pythag was 92-70. Cairo has them at 5 less wins. Hmmm.

1) I'll knock 1.2 wins off due to Ramon's decline. This would we consistent with the 'fans' projections on fangraphs but worse than Bill James or Marcel predictions.
2) I'll knock 1.6 wins off due to Rolen's decline. This would we consistent with the 'fans' projections on fangraphs, Bill James predictions & Marcel predictions.
3) Other players may outperform 2010 (Bruce?, Stubbs??). Maybe an improvement in one player is wiped out by a decline in another. However, other than Hernandez & Rolen I don't see any other positions where a big decline is expected. A pessimist would wipe out Cairo's 0.9 WAR.
4) There will be a lot of similarities from 2010 to 2011. Lewis replaces Nix. Renteria replaces Cabrera. Chapman replaces Rhodes. These for the most part seem to wash out.
5) Harang overall had a 1.6 whip & a 5.32 era. He made 20 starts for the Reds. The team actually went 9-11 in those games. If these starts are made by a pitcher who can have an era one run less (~4.32) I'd gather that they would win more than 9 games. Plugging a 4.32 era into Harang's 111.67 IP for 2010 gives 13 less runs over those innings. I am going to make what I feel is a reasonable estimate & say that replacing Harang in the rotation nets +2 wins.

So:
-1.2 decline from Ramon
-1.6 decline from Rolen
-0.9 decline from Cairo
+2.0 no Harang

Thats 92 wins minus 1.7 or 90.3 wins. IMO Cairo's 87.2 seems too low.
I am curious as to what others think. Why would the 2011 team be 5 wins worse than 2010? Are there any obvious things I am missing?

oneupper
02-14-2011, 09:48 PM
What is CAIRO (what does it stand for?).
What did they predict last year in the NL CENTRAL?

blumj
02-14-2011, 10:19 PM
What is CAIRO (what does it stand for?).


That's why I decided to come up with my own projection system, which I've code-named CAIRO after my favorite bad baseball player. It will eventually stand for something but I'm not quite sure what yet.

From '07: http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_projections_v01

Last year: http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/02/2010-cairo-projections-v03.html

Screwball
02-14-2011, 10:43 PM
From '07:
Last year: [url]http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/02/2010-cairo-projections-v03.html

They had Philly and San Fran pegged as basement dwellers. Solid.

:ughmamoru

Quatitos
02-15-2011, 12:51 AM
Thats 92 wins minus 1.7 or 90.3 wins. IMO Cairo's 87.2 seems too low.
I am curious as to what others think. Why would the 2011 team be 5 wins worse than 2010? Are there any obvious things I am missing?
Lets take a look at the specific numbers that CAIRO v0.6 used for each of the position players that I consider will start the year with the Reds.

Votto 2010: 1.024 OPS, .439 wOBA
Votto CAIRO: .923 OPS, .398 wOBA
Low considering he has a career .958 OPS .409 wOBA and is just entering his prime.

Bruce 2010: .846 OPS, .363 wOBA
Bruce CAIRO: .808 OPS, .348 wOBA
Probably fair based on just looking at his past major league numbers, but I think most people that watched him last year would agree that Bruce's stats from last season are likely to be the floor for what you can expect Bruce to produce in 2011.

Phillips 2010: .762 OPS, .332 wOBA
Phillips CAIRO: .756 OPS, .328 wOBA
Fair projection, maybe a bit low considering the projected numbers are lower than 4 out of his last 5 seasons.


Stubbs 2010: .773 OPS, .345 wOBA
Stubbs CAIRO: .767 OPS, .334 wOBA
A lot of people are probably more optimistic about Stubbs, but his past Major and Minor League stats don't really indicate he would produce more than around a .770 OPS and .350 wOBA. I personally think Stubbs could post upwards of a .800 OPS and .360 wOBA.

Janish 2010: .723 OPS, .315 wOBA
Janish CAIRO: .671 OPS, .299 wOBA
Fair prediction, although I personally think Janish can keep his OPS in the .700's.

Rentaria 2010: .707 OPS, .314 wOBA
Rentaria CAIRO: .709 OPS, .314 wOBA
Fair, old guy not gonna see much improvement there.

Cairo 2010: .763 OPS, .343 wOBA
Miguel CAIRO: .702 OPS, .311 wOBA
Fair, see Rentaria

Gomes 2010: .758 OPS, .330 wOBA
Gomes CAIRO: .777 OPS, .337 wOBA
Gomes will probably see an improvement over his struggles from last season, especially if used in more of a platoon role where his favorable lefty splits boost his numbers. I think he will end up somewhere between his 2009 and 2010 numbers, around .800 OPS and .350 wOBA.

Lewis 2010: .745 OPS, .331 wOBA
Lewis CAIRO: .753 OPS, .333 wOBA
Possibly a bit low since Lewis will likely end up as a platoon partner for Gomes, and his favorable righty splits improve his overall stats in that role.

Heisey 2010: .757 OPS, .328 wOBA
Heisey CAIRO: .761 OPS, .325 wOBA
Probably a bit low, but could be a good prediction if Heisey does not see regular at bats and continues to have trouble adjusting to Major League pitching. James predicts him putting up a .814 OPS and .354 wOBA

Rolen 2010: .854 OPS, .367 wOBA
Rolen CAIRO: .816 OPS, .353 wOBA
Probably a good prediction considering Rolen is aging as we saw in the second half of last year.

Hernandez 2010: .792 OPS, .350 wOBA
Hernandez CAIRO: .714 OPS, .316 wOBA
Ramon had a good season last year, and its questionable whether he could repeat again this year. The prediction matches his 07-09 seasons pretty closely.

Hanigan 2010: .834 OPS, .368 wOBA
Hanigan CAIRO: .738 OPS, .333 wOBA
I think this might be a little low, Ryan has a career average .752 OPS and .335 wOBA. With a couple seasons under his belt I would probably see something in the .770 OPS and .350 wOBA area.


So to go along with the declines in Ramon, Rolen, and Cairo that you pointed out, CAIRO suggests that Votto and Hanigan will lose 100 points off his OPS and a 50 point loss for Bruce and Janish. So Cairo is suggesting that the 3, 4, 5 hitters for the Reds will regress and the 6, 7, and 8 hitters will either stay the same or get worse. Cairo also does not predict that any of the batters will see a markable increase in statistics.

Judging from all these regressions for the hitters, its easy to see why CAIRO sees the Reds scoring 44 less runs next season. CAIRO also basically predicted that 4 more runs would be allowed next season, so it is basically predicting that the pitchers overall will stay about the same, which given the amount of promising young arms might also be a bit conservative. No Reds starter has a predicted ERA above 4.28 (Arroyo), but no Reds starter has a predicted ERA above 4.50 (Bailey) of the 6 starters considered in the running to begin the season with the team. I won't go over each one specifically since they are all predicted to be within 0.20 points of each other. This may be a problem with CAIRO not predicting young pitchers very well, I am not very knowledgeable about how good of a job it does in general, but for the Reds it does not appear to be very kind to our younger pitchers. Bill James predictions for the Reds starters seem to be more in line with what I would expect.

So with some of the unfavorable (in my opinion) projections for many Reds players, it is easy to see why it predicts the reds losing 5 more games next season.

Blitz Dorsey
02-15-2011, 12:58 AM
I always though of Miguel as the strong and silent type. I don't like him trash talking like this.

mth123
02-15-2011, 02:47 AM
Lets take a look at the specific numbers that CAIRO v0.6 used for each of the position players that I consider will start the year with the Reds.

Votto 2010: 1.024 OPS, .439 wOBA
Votto CAIRO: .923 OPS, .398 wOBA
Low considering he has a career .958 OPS .409 wOBA and is just entering his prime.

Bruce 2010: .846 OPS, .363 wOBA
Bruce CAIRO: .808 OPS, .348 wOBA
Probably fair based on just looking at his past major league numbers, but I think most people that watched him last year would agree that Bruce's stats from last season are likely to be the floor for what you can expect Bruce to produce in 2011.

Phillips 2010: .762 OPS, .332 wOBA
Phillips CAIRO: .756 OPS, .328 wOBA
Fair projection, maybe a bit low considering the projected numbers are lower than 4 out of his last 5 seasons.


Stubbs 2010: .773 OPS, .345 wOBA
Stubbs CAIRO: .767 OPS, .334 wOBA
A lot of people are probably more optimistic about Stubbs, but his past Major and Minor League stats don't really indicate he would produce more than around a .770 OPS and .350 wOBA. I personally think Stubbs could post upwards of a .800 OPS and .360 wOBA.

Janish 2010: .723 OPS, .315 wOBA
Janish CAIRO: .671 OPS, .299 wOBA
Fair prediction, although I personally think Janish can keep his OPS in the .700's.

Rentaria 2010: .707 OPS, .314 wOBA
Rentaria CAIRO: .709 OPS, .314 wOBA
Fair, old guy not gonna see much improvement there.

Cairo 2010: .763 OPS, .343 wOBA
Miguel CAIRO: .702 OPS, .311 wOBA
Fair, see Rentaria

Gomes 2010: .758 OPS, .330 wOBA
Gomes CAIRO: .777 OPS, .337 wOBA
Gomes will probably see an improvement over his struggles from last season, especially if used in more of a platoon role where his favorable lefty splits boost his numbers. I think he will end up somewhere between his 2009 and 2010 numbers, around .800 OPS and .350 wOBA.

Lewis 2010: .745 OPS, .331 wOBA
Lewis CAIRO: .753 OPS, .333 wOBA
Possibly a bit low since Lewis will likely end up as a platoon partner for Gomes, and his favorable righty splits improve his overall stats in that role.

Heisey 2010: .757 OPS, .328 wOBA
Heisey CAIRO: .761 OPS, .325 wOBA
Probably a bit low, but could be a good prediction if Heisey does not see regular at bats and continues to have trouble adjusting to Major League pitching. James predicts him putting up a .814 OPS and .354 wOBA

Rolen 2010: .854 OPS, .367 wOBA
Rolen CAIRO: .816 OPS, .353 wOBA
Probably a good prediction considering Rolen is aging as we saw in the second half of last year.

Hernandez 2010: .792 OPS, .350 wOBA
Hernandez CAIRO: .714 OPS, .316 wOBA
Ramon had a good season last year, and its questionable whether he could repeat again this year. The prediction matches his 07-09 seasons pretty closely.

Hanigan 2010: .834 OPS, .368 wOBA
Hanigan CAIRO: .738 OPS, .333 wOBA
I think this might be a little low, Ryan has a career average .752 OPS and .335 wOBA. With a couple seasons under his belt I would probably see something in the .770 OPS and .350 wOBA area.


So to go along with the declines in Ramon, Rolen, and Cairo that you pointed out, CAIRO suggests that Votto and Hanigan will lose 100 points off his OPS and a 50 point loss for Bruce and Janish. So Cairo is suggesting that the 3, 4, 5 hitters for the Reds will regress and the 6, 7, and 8 hitters will either stay the same or get worse. Cairo also does not predict that any of the batters will see a markable increase in statistics.

Judging from all these regressions for the hitters, its easy to see why CAIRO sees the Reds scoring 44 less runs next season. CAIRO also basically predicted that 4 more runs would be allowed next season, so it is basically predicting that the pitchers overall will stay about the same, which given the amount of promising young arms might also be a bit conservative. No Reds starter has a predicted ERA above 4.28 (Arroyo), but no Reds starter has a predicted ERA above 4.50 (Bailey) of the 6 starters considered in the running to begin the season with the team. I won't go over each one specifically since they are all predicted to be within 0.20 points of each other. This may be a problem with CAIRO not predicting young pitchers very well, I am not very knowledgeable about how good of a job it does in general, but for the Reds it does not appear to be very kind to our younger pitchers. Bill James predictions for the Reds starters seem to be more in line with what I would expect.

So with some of the unfavorable (in my opinion) projections for many Reds players, it is easy to see why it predicts the reds losing 5 more games next season.

Nice post. Welcome to the ORG.

I generally see things the way Cairo does:

1. Drops from Votto, Rolen, the Catchers, Cairo and Janish.

2. Phillips and Stubbs stay about the same.

3. A little bump in LF due to the platoon advantage.

I only differ in that I think that Bruce is in for a monster year, Rolen's drop will be a lot bigger and I think Heisey could drop quite a bit.

On the pitching side, I see a drop from Arroyo to the 4.20 ERA range, Cueto back to the 4.00 range. I see the pen as being real good and the unproven starters as key. If I were betting, I'd say Bailey rises to the top, Wood puts up a solid year in the low 4's, Volquez disappoints and Leake takes a huge step back.

Managing Rolen's PT with lots of rest to keep his production up (and providing reasonable production while he's resting) and having one of the question marks in the rotation rise to the top with at least one other turning in solid starter numbers is key to the season IMO. Overall a drop in run production of 50 or so with the pitching staying about the same overall seems reasonable. If I had to predict today, 86 wins seems like a really good number. If all goes well (again) the Reds could win 95+, but counting on all to go well is foolish IMO. The Reds need another mid-order bat to offset the across the board corrections that seem likely (at this point I'm hoping for Mesoraco to make a Buster Posey type mid-season impact) and at least one starter to emerge that can push Cueto and Arroyo back to the middle of the rotation. If two starters emerge and make Cueto amd Arroyo the 3 & 4 guys. the team can be a championship contender IMO.

Will M
02-15-2011, 03:08 AM
Lets take a look at the specific numbers that CAIRO v0.6 used for each of the position players that I consider will start the year with the Reds.

Votto 2010: 1.024 OPS, .439 wOBA
Votto CAIRO: .923 OPS, .398 wOBA
Low considering he has a career .958 OPS .409 wOBA and is just entering his prime.

Bruce 2010: .846 OPS, .363 wOBA
Bruce CAIRO: .808 OPS, .348 wOBA
Probably fair based on just looking at his past major league numbers, but I think most people that watched him last year would agree that Bruce's stats from last season are likely to be the floor for what you can expect Bruce to produce in 2011.

Phillips 2010: .762 OPS, .332 wOBA
Phillips CAIRO: .756 OPS, .328 wOBA
Fair projection, maybe a bit low considering the projected numbers are lower than 4 out of his last 5 seasons.


Stubbs 2010: .773 OPS, .345 wOBA
Stubbs CAIRO: .767 OPS, .334 wOBA
A lot of people are probably more optimistic about Stubbs, but his past Major and Minor League stats don't really indicate he would produce more than around a .770 OPS and .350 wOBA. I personally think Stubbs could post upwards of a .800 OPS and .360 wOBA.

Janish 2010: .723 OPS, .315 wOBA
Janish CAIRO: .671 OPS, .299 wOBA
Fair prediction, although I personally think Janish can keep his OPS in the .700's.

Rentaria 2010: .707 OPS, .314 wOBA
Rentaria CAIRO: .709 OPS, .314 wOBA
Fair, old guy not gonna see much improvement there.

Cairo 2010: .763 OPS, .343 wOBA
Miguel CAIRO: .702 OPS, .311 wOBA
Fair, see Rentaria

Gomes 2010: .758 OPS, .330 wOBA
Gomes CAIRO: .777 OPS, .337 wOBA
Gomes will probably see an improvement over his struggles from last season, especially if used in more of a platoon role where his favorable lefty splits boost his numbers. I think he will end up somewhere between his 2009 and 2010 numbers, around .800 OPS and .350 wOBA.

Lewis 2010: .745 OPS, .331 wOBA
Lewis CAIRO: .753 OPS, .333 wOBA
Possibly a bit low since Lewis will likely end up as a platoon partner for Gomes, and his favorable righty splits improve his overall stats in that role.

Heisey 2010: .757 OPS, .328 wOBA
Heisey CAIRO: .761 OPS, .325 wOBA
Probably a bit low, but could be a good prediction if Heisey does not see regular at bats and continues to have trouble adjusting to Major League pitching. James predicts him putting up a .814 OPS and .354 wOBA

Rolen 2010: .854 OPS, .367 wOBA
Rolen CAIRO: .816 OPS, .353 wOBA
Probably a good prediction considering Rolen is aging as we saw in the second half of last year.

Hernandez 2010: .792 OPS, .350 wOBA
Hernandez CAIRO: .714 OPS, .316 wOBA
Ramon had a good season last year, and its questionable whether he could repeat again this year. The prediction matches his 07-09 seasons pretty closely.

Hanigan 2010: .834 OPS, .368 wOBA
Hanigan CAIRO: .738 OPS, .333 wOBA
I think this might be a little low, Ryan has a career average .752 OPS and .335 wOBA. With a couple seasons under his belt I would probably see something in the .770 OPS and .350 wOBA area.


So to go along with the declines in Ramon, Rolen, and Cairo that you pointed out, CAIRO suggests that Votto and Hanigan will lose 100 points off his OPS and a 50 point loss for Bruce and Janish. So Cairo is suggesting that the 3, 4, 5 hitters for the Reds will regress and the 6, 7, and 8 hitters will either stay the same or get worse. Cairo also does not predict that any of the batters will see a markable increase in statistics.

Judging from all these regressions for the hitters, its easy to see why CAIRO sees the Reds scoring 44 less runs next season. CAIRO also basically predicted that 4 more runs would be allowed next season, so it is basically predicting that the pitchers overall will stay about the same, which given the amount of promising young arms might also be a bit conservative. No Reds starter has a predicted ERA above 4.28 (Arroyo), but no Reds starter has a predicted ERA above 4.50 (Bailey) of the 6 starters considered in the running to begin the season with the team. I won't go over each one specifically since they are all predicted to be within 0.20 points of each other. This may be a problem with CAIRO not predicting young pitchers very well, I am not very knowledgeable about how good of a job it does in general, but for the Reds it does not appear to be very kind to our younger pitchers. Bill James predictions for the Reds starters seem to be more in line with what I would expect.

So with some of the unfavorable (in my opinion) projections for many Reds players, it is easy to see why it predicts the reds losing 5 more games next season.

thanks. very nice post.

Votto doesn't seem to get much respect. He OPSed 981 in 2009 before his MVP season in 2010. He was not a one year wonder last year. How does Bruce take a step back at the age of 24? Thats an odd prediction.

It seems Cairo has pretty low estimates on what the Reds players will do in 2011. I think their 87 win estimate is low. Not only do I think the Reds will win ~90 games but I think the over/under is on the upside not the downside. The Reds have talented guys who have either not reached their potential (Bruce) or haven't 'put it together' (Volquez, Bailey). A couple of them could bust out & make 2011 another nice year to be a Reds fan.

Guacarock
02-15-2011, 03:15 AM
CAIRO Projects Reds to Win NL Central


Three days removed from Mubarek and they're already picking baseball winners. Wow, that is progress.

Well, these are the Cairo projections. Until we hear from Alexandria, I'll remain in a state of De-Nile-Al.

Will M
02-15-2011, 03:17 AM
Nice post. Welcome to the ORG.

I generally see things the way Cairo does:

1. Drops from Votto, Rolen, the Catchers, Cairo and Janish.

2. Phillips and Stubbs stay about the same.

3. A little bump in LF due to the platoon advantage.

I only differ in that I think that Bruce is in for a monster year, Rolen's drop will be a lot bigger and I think Heisey could drop quite a bit.

On the pitching side, I see a drop from Arroyo to the 4.20 ERA range, Cueto back to the 4.00 range. I see the pen as being real good and the unproven starters as key. If I were betting, I'd say Bailey rises to the top, Wood puts up a solid year in the low 4's, Volquez disappoints and Leake takes a huge step back.

Managing Rolen's PT with lots of rest to keep his production up (and providing reasonable production while he's resting) and having one of the question marks in the rotation rise to the top with at least one other turning in solid starter numbers is key to the season IMO. Overall a drop in run production of 50 or so with the pitching staying about the same overall seems reasonable. If I had to predict today, 86 wins seems like a really good number. If all goes well (again) the Reds could win 95+, but counting on all to go well is foolish IMO. The Reds need another mid-order bat to offset the across the board corrections that seem likely (at this point I'm hoping for Mesoraco to make a Buster Posey type mid-season impact) and at least one starter to emerge that can push Cueto and Arroyo back to the middle of the rotation. If two starters emerge and make Cueto amd Arroyo the 3 & 4 guys. the team can be a championship contender IMO.

IMO thats a pretty pessimistic view across the board. Everybody except Bruce & maybe Bailey either stays the same, gets worse or gets a lot worse.
there are positions that could suprise. Gomes will hit very well vs RHP. Maybe Lewis really takes to Dusty and the LF platoon produces 3 WAR. Maybe Stubbs breaks out. The guys could steal as many bases as he wants. Votto could add to his OPS, especially if Bruce becomes a major threat. Bailey, Cueto, Volquez & Wood could all post ERAs under 3.50 . Just a few pleasant upside suprises could push this team into the mid 90s wins. Not everything has to go right. 86-87 wins seems to think that just about everything will go wrong.

mth123
02-15-2011, 05:43 AM
IMO thats a pretty pessimistic view across the board. Everybody except Bruce & maybe Bailey either stays the same, gets worse or gets a lot worse.
there are positions that could suprise. Gomes will hit very well vs RHP. Maybe Lewis really takes to Dusty and the LF platoon produces 3 WAR. Maybe Stubbs breaks out. The guys could steal as many bases as he wants. Votto could add to his OPS, especially if Bruce becomes a major threat. Bailey, Cueto, Volquez & Wood could all post ERAs under 3.50 . Just a few pleasant upside suprises could push this team into the mid 90s wins. Not everything has to go right. 86-87 wins seems to think that just about everything will go wrong.

I guess I think everybody except Bruce and a couple of the pitchers played at or over their heads last year.

Do you think Votto really leads the league in OBP, Slugging and OPS next year?

Do you expect Rolen to OPS .850 again with his degenerative shoulder and the obvious signs that the pain that had left him alone for a couple months in the productive 1st half had returned in the second half?

Do you expect 37 Y/O Miguel Cairo with the career .678 OPS to give 225 PAs in the .760 range again?

Do you expect Janish whose OPS high in AA and AAA as a regular player was .711 and mostly in the .650 range to OPS .720ish as a regular player?

Do you expect Ramon Hernandez who put up an OPS of .714, .714 and .699 in 2007 - 2009 to repeat his OPS of .792?

Do you expect Ryan Hanigan to OPS .830+ again or will he return to his .690ish ways of 2009 or more likely come in somewhere around his minor league career line in the .750 range?

Do you expect anything other than a repeat from Phillips after three straight years of him basically performing as he did in 2010?

Do you really expect more than a .773 OPS from Stubbs when he was basically a .765 guy in the minors with a .713 at AAA?

Do you expect Arroyo to repeat his 3.88 ERA from 2010 even though it took a .239 BABIP for it to happen?

One or two of those guys might repeat or even improve on 2010, but if they don't it won't be because things went wrong. It will simply be guys coming back to normal. Things went extraordinarily right in 2010 and its mostly downside for these guys. The team's upside comes from Jay Bruce and from the young pitchers. I'm actually expecting a big year from Bruce and counting on a break-out from Bailey and solid seasons from Cueto and Wood. I'd say that's pretty optimistic. All 5 of those young pitchers won't likely come through and 3 doing so (it doesn't matter so much which 3) is a pretty good outcome. Expecting more strikes me as "pie in the sky" thinking.

blumj
02-15-2011, 09:08 AM
I always though of Miguel as the strong and silent type. I don't like him trash talking like this.
I guess Chone learned his lesson last year, haven't even heard a peep out of him.

Will M
02-15-2011, 04:39 PM
I guess I think everybody except Bruce and a couple of the pitchers played at or over their heads last year.

Do you think Votto really leads the league in OBP, Slugging and OPS next year?

Do you expect Rolen to OPS .850 again with his degenerative shoulder and the obvious signs that the pain that had left him alone for a couple months in the productive 1st half had returned in the second half?

Do you expect 37 Y/O Miguel Cairo with the career .678 OPS to give 225 PAs in the .760 range again?

Do you expect Janish whose OPS high in AA and AAA as a regular player was .711 and mostly in the .650 range to OPS .720ish as a regular player?

Do you expect Ramon Hernandez who put up an OPS of .714, .714 and .699 in 2007 - 2009 to repeat his OPS of .792?

Do you expect Ryan Hanigan to OPS .830+ again or will he return to his .690ish ways of 2009 or more likely come in somewhere around his minor league career line in the .750 range?

Do you expect anything other than a repeat from Phillips after three straight years of him basically performing as he did in 2010?

Do you really expect more than a .773 OPS from Stubbs when he was basically a .765 guy in the minors with a .713 at AAA?

Do you expect Arroyo to repeat his 3.88 ERA from 2010 even though it took a .239 BABIP for it to happen?

One or two of those guys might repeat or even improve on 2010, but if they don't it won't be because things went wrong. It will simply be guys coming back to normal. Things went extraordinarily right in 2010 and its mostly downside for these guys. The team's upside comes from Jay Bruce and from the young pitchers. I'm actually expecting a big year from Bruce and counting on a break-out from Bailey and solid seasons from Cueto and Wood. I'd say that's pretty optimistic. All 5 of those young pitchers won't likely come through and 3 doing so (it doesn't matter so much which 3) is a pretty good outcome. Expecting more strikes me as "pie in the sky" thinking.

My '90 win scenario' counts:
1. Rolen dropping off to what Bill James predicts
2. Ramon dropping off to below what Bill James predicts
3. Cairo becoming a replacement level player
4. Harang's replacement having an ERA of ~4.32
5. everything else washing out. for example a slight dropoff in one player being balanced by a slight uptick in another.

I guess we disagree on part #5. You feel that even after dropoffs 1, 2 & 3 there are more players that are ready to underperform their 2010 numbers that those that are ready to outperform them.

mth123
02-15-2011, 07:28 PM
My '90 win scenario' counts:
1. Rolen dropping off to what Bill James predicts
2. Ramon dropping off to below what Bill James predicts
3. Cairo becoming a replacement level player
4. Harang's replacement having an ERA of ~4.32
5. everything else washing out. for example a slight dropoff in one player being balanced by a slight uptick in another.

I guess we disagree on part #5. You feel that even after dropoffs 1, 2 & 3 there are more players that are ready to underperform their 2010 numbers that those that are ready to outperform them.

I think Janish may have us longing for Willy T offensively. I don't see either catcher coming close to last season. I see Rolen with a .775 OPS and Votto at about .950. That would still make Votto elite and Rolen very solid, but both would be pretty big drops from last season. Since I expect big drops at C and SS too with really only RF improving significantly, I see the run production dropping. The fix is to get production from some kids like Francisco and Mesoraco (who have actual upside) but I think the Ramon and Cairo signings (who have nothing but downside) mean they won't get the chance. I'm optimistic that Bruce will OPS above .900 in 2011, but it won't be enough to offset 75 point drops at 1B, 3B and C and a potential black hole at SS. If 2010 is the baseline, I think it would be pretty optimistic to expect anything but a drop.

MikeThierry
02-15-2011, 07:44 PM
The thing that kind of jumped out at me (if I'm reading the CAIRO projections correctly) is the RA for the different teams in the division. I don't see how the Pirates allow 70 less runs. I also don't see the Brewers allowing 116 less runs. I know their pitching has gotten significantly better but I don't know if its 116 runs better. The other one I am scratching my head at is the Cardinals allowing 48 more runs. Maybe they are accounting for Garcia to have a slow sophomore year but allowing 48 more runs seems like a large increase considering they still have the same solid pitching that they had last year.

Homer Bailey
02-15-2011, 07:47 PM
The thing that kind of jumped out at me (if I'm reading the CAIRO projections correctly) is the RA for the different teams in the division. I don't see how the Pirates allow 70 less runs. I also don't see the Brewers allowing 116 less runs. I know their pitching has gotten significantly better but I don't know if its 116 runs better. The other one I am scratching my head at is the Cardinals allowing 48 more runs. Maybe they are accounting for Garcia to have a slow sophomore year but allowing 48 more runs seems like a large increase considering they still have the same solid pitching that they had last year.

Defense, defense, defense.

RedsManRick
02-15-2011, 07:58 PM
Thats 92 wins minus 1.7 or 90.3 wins. IMO Cairo's 87.2 seems too low.
I am curious as to what others think. Why would the 2011 team be 5 wins worse than 2010? Are there any obvious things I am missing?

Regression to the mean. The best way to project a guy's performance (aka true talent) is to use some percentage of his last few years and some of what we know about guys who similar. Various projection systems go about this differently, but that's the guts of it. I know it feels a bit wrong, but when you run the models, that's what works best. Even 3 years of performance only gives us so much information about a guy's true talent. Including information about guys like him makes the projections more accurate.

Guys who coming off their best year tend to regress back towards their previous level of performance and towards league average and the Reds had a lot of guys with their best year to date. I know it "feels" wrong, especially with young guys, but all you have to do is look at copious amounts of history and, on balance, it tends to be true.

That's not to say each guy will regress as much as CAIRO thinks (and if you think CAIRO is tough, you should see PECOTA!), but chances are some of the guys we think will sustain their gains or get better, won't. And some guys with think will hold on or just slip a little will slip a lot. I tend to think that Jay Bruce, for example, is going to be severely underrated by projection systems in large part because the gains he made in 2009 were hidden by some bad luck. But the systems can't adjust for every little unique thing.

It's important to remember that projection systems are designed to total minimize error across the population they're projecting. That is, on balance, they want to be as little wrong as possible. I highly recommend this thread on Tango's blog if you want to learn more: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/testing_the_2007_2010_forecasting_systems_official _results/

Homer Bailey
02-15-2011, 07:58 PM
We've all been making Lance Berkman in the outfield jokes for months now, but in looking at his fangraphs page, I just realized something.

He hasn't played the outfield regularly (never more than 25%) since 2004.

RedsManRick
02-15-2011, 07:59 PM
We've all been making Lance Berkman in the outfield jokes for months now, but in looking at his fangraphs page, I just realized something.

He hasn't played the outfield regularly (never more than 25%) since 2004.

Yup. And he wasn't a particularly good OF. Heck, he was just an average 1B. I can't wait to see him out there.

Homer Bailey
02-15-2011, 08:01 PM
Yup. And he wasn't a particularly good OF. Heck, he was just an average 1B. I can't wait to see him out there.

I think the Cardinals have a very respectable organization, but for the life of me, I can't see how they see this working.

RedsManRick
02-15-2011, 08:07 PM
I think the Cardinals have a very respectable organization, but for the life of me, I can't see how they see this working.

It seems like they gave Tony the keys and he just went out and got guys whose personalities fit. They are going to be a very rough defensive squad. As others have said, I'm more worried about the Brewers than I am the Cards.

Imagine if the Cards are struggling in early August and Pujols' regular nagging arm and heel issues are more problematic than usual. What are the chances he shuts it down early?

Will M
02-15-2011, 08:15 PM
I think Janish may have us longing for Willy T offensively. I don't see either catcher coming close to last season. I see Rolen with a .775 OPS and Votto at about .950. That would still make Votto elite and Rolen very solid, but both would be pretty big drops from last season. Since I expect big drops at C and SS too with really only RF improving significantly, I see the run production dropping. The fix is to get production from some kids like Francisco and Mesoraco (who have actual upside) but I think the Ramon and Cairo signings (who have nothing but downside) mean they won't get the chance. I'm optimistic that Bruce will OPS above .900 in 2011, but it won't be enough to offset 75 point drops at 1B, 3B and C and a potential black hole at SS. If 2010 is the baseline, I think it would be pretty optimistic to expect anything but a drop.

I have a more optimistic view of several players than you do. I have bought into the idea Janish added weight & now hits the ball with more authority. I think Hanigan's drop off won't be as bad as some think. I also feel he will get more playing time in 2011 as he will be both the better hitter & better defender. I think Votto's numbers & Rolen's numbers will be a touch better than you predict. We'll have to see how it plays out. For me its been a long winter. I was ready for opening day six weeks ago & spring training hasn't even started.

As you mention the Reds do have players in AAA who could step in. If Ramon flops replace him with Mes. If Janish/Renteria flop replace them with Cozart. If Cairo flops replace him with Frazier or Francisco. I don't think these guys have big enough contracts to last all season if they bomb & a guy in AAA plays well.

Homer Bailey
02-15-2011, 08:29 PM
It seems like they gave Tony the keys and he just went out and got guys whose personalities fit. They are going to be a very rough defensive squad. As others have said, I'm more worried about the Brewers than I am the Cards.

Imagine if the Cards are struggling in early August and Pujols' regular nagging arm and heel issues are more problematic than usual. What are the chances he shuts it down early?

I think the Brewers have many of the same defensive issues that the Cardinals do. Just no big glaring weakness like Berkman. Brewers clearly have the better offense, IMO.

mth123
02-15-2011, 08:44 PM
I have a more optimistic view of several players than you do. I have bought into the idea Janish added weight & now hits the ball with more authority. I think Hanigan's drop off won't be as bad as some think. I also feel he will get more playing time in 2011 as he will be both the better hitter & better defender. I think Votto's numbers & Rolen's numbers will be a touch better than you predict. We'll have to see how it plays out. For me its been a long winter. I was ready for opening day six weeks ago & spring training hasn't even started.

As you mention the Reds do have players in AAA who could step in. If Ramon flops replace him with Mes. If Janish/Renteria flop replace them with Cozart. If Cairo flops replace him with Frazier or Francisco. I don't think these guys have big enough contracts to last all season if they bomb & a guy in AAA plays well.

If Hernandez OPS is at .717 (see 2007 through 2009) and Hanigan is at .760 (see his minor league career) that is a 75 point drop at catcher. Rolen at .775 and Votto at .950 both represent 75 point drops. That is three spots dropping 75 points each without any player dropping well below reasonable expectations. I just won't believe that Janish will OPS above .625 as a starter for a full season until he does it.

This isn't a thread about hopes, but about expectations. I think expecting more isn't realistic. It might happen, but that is different than expecting it to or planning on it.

Quatitos
02-15-2011, 09:47 PM
I think the Brewers have many of the same defensive issues that the Cardinals do. Just no big glaring weakness like Berkman. Brewers clearly have the better offense, IMO.
I dunno, it might be a competition of who can be worse between Berkman and Betancourt, both look like they will be pretty bad.

Ron Madden
02-16-2011, 03:42 AM
[B]It seems like they gave Tony the keys and he just went out and got guys whose personalities fit. They are going to be a very rough defensive squad. As others have said, I'm more worried about the Brewers than I am the Cards.

Imagine if the Cards are struggling in early August and Pujols' regular nagging arm and heel issues are more problematic than usual. What are the chances he shuts it down early?

I believe there may be a whole lot of truth in that first paragraph.

mth123
02-22-2011, 06:39 PM
Bumping this thread because I just found my old BP Password and looked at the PECOTA projections for the 2011 Reds. In this thread I predicted 86 wins with the Pitching/Defense/Runs Allowed staying pretty status quo and the offense dropping about 50 runs from last year.

PECOTA has the Reds at 81-81 scoring 743 runs (a 47 Run drop from 2010) and Allowing 738 Runs (53 more than last season). I completely can see where the offensive side is coming from (reasons posted earlier in this thread), but I'm having a tougher time seeing that big drop on the pitching/defense side. Status Quo in the Runs allowed seems about right IMO. Regression from Arroyo is likely to some extent and a full season from Wood probably won't match what he did in 2010, but probably will match the combined numbers that he and Leake provided. Cueto probably topped out last year. I'd say a break-even is optimistic maybe a slight drop. But Bailey and Volquez will likely outperform what Bailey/Volquez/Harang provided last year, so overall, I'd say the Rotation breaks even. In the Pen, Chapman will be a stud, but that just replaces the studly work they got from Rhodes in 2010. Masset is likely to repeat and Bray probably matches or betters what he and Danny Rae combined to do in 2010. IMO, Cordero improves a little from 2010 and the others probably combine to be about the same though Arredondo could add a big improvement (though that may just offset a possible drop from Ondrusek). Overall, I just don't see the staff being that much worse in 2011. I don't see the pie in the sky improvement that some are projecting, but 53 runs worse seems a little pessimistic even for me.

Can somebody with more access give a clue how the Runs Allowed projection is so poor? Is there one guy that they predict will stink-up the place? Is everyone slightly worse? Who is the Eric Milton of the 2011 Reds per PECOTA? Is there more than one?