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View Full Version : Fast forward 1 year: Who will be the Reds closer in 2012?



redsfandan
02-14-2011, 07:43 PM
Cordero is likely gone after this year and these guys will be the top contenders to take over the role.

The question isn't who you'd like to end up as the closer but who do you think the Reds will make the closer in 2012?

Tornon
02-14-2011, 07:52 PM
I didn't have a specific name in mind when I picked someone else, just none of those names struck me as someone who might have the job next year

Superdude
02-14-2011, 08:25 PM
that's gotta be Chapman. It seems Walt & Co. are set on him being a reliever, so they're going to validate the hype and signing bonus somehow. Don't see anyway he's setting up Masset unless he completely bombs this year.

edabbs44
02-14-2011, 09:32 PM
Chapman.

TheNext44
02-14-2011, 09:45 PM
Arrendondo, who I think will be the Reds closer sometime in 2011 as well.

A long shot favorite of mine is Jordan Smith. He has that closer mentality and "intentional fortitude" as Brantley puts it.

Unassisted
02-14-2011, 10:28 PM
IMO, it'll be Masset. Chapman's going to be converted to full-time starter eventually.

OnBaseMachine
02-14-2011, 11:06 PM
I went with Arredondo. I hope and pray it's not Chapman as he should be starting in 2012.

fearofpopvol1
02-15-2011, 12:09 AM
I don't think it will be any of these guys. I wonder if it ends up being a guy like Ondrusek or Smith.

Ghosts of 1990
02-15-2011, 01:19 AM
I'm going with a dark horse. I think it will be Homer Bailey by the end of this season.

Will M
02-15-2011, 01:38 AM
honestly, any of the pitchers mentioned could end up as the Reds closer. Sometimes a guy just falls into the role, has success & stays there.
However, my crystal ball would say Chapman is the Reds closer after Cordero.

1) since i doubt the Reds are going outside the system to pay for an expensive closer I am guessing Cordero's successor is already here

2) Chapman can get some closing experience this year without ruffling Cordero's feathers. Dusty can use Chapman to close against a 9th inning lineup full of lefties. Masset can't do that. I suspect Dusty would hesitate using Masset to close a game unless Cordero had literally pitched the prior 3 days.

3) The Reds are going to pay Chapman a fair amount of money the next few years no matter what. There will be a lot of temptation to let him close in 2012 if he is successful in the pen in 2011. The 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' mentality could make the team keep him in the pen rather than converting him into a starter. Then if he is in the pen he should close. Massett is a lot cheaper to pay as an 8th inning guy than as a 9th inning guy.

I personally would like the team to keep an open mind on Chapman. How well does he adjust to life in America? Adjust to the bigs? How does his 3rd pitch look? If he doesn't really develop a 3rd pitch & feels comfortable in the pen then I'd keep him there. If he adjusts well, the team thinks he can handle the transition to starter and he develops that 3rd pitch then he should start in 2012. Its too soon to get too worked up one way or the other.

dougdirt
02-15-2011, 01:47 AM
2) Chapman can get some closing experience this year without ruffling Cordero's feathers. Dusty can use Chapman to close against a 9th inning lineup full of lefties. Masset can't do that.

Nick Masset vs lefties last year: .196/.257/.351 with 30/8 K/BB in 106 PA. I would say that Nick Masset would do just fine against all lefties.

Will M
02-15-2011, 04:24 AM
Nick Masset vs lefties last year: .196/.257/.351 with 30/8 K/BB in 106 PA. I would say that Nick Masset would do just fine against all lefties.

You misunderstand me. If Dusty lets Masset (a right handed pitcher) close games while Cordero (also a right handed pitcher) sits then Cordero is getting disrespected. This is my take on the "Dusty as a player's manager" style. So I just don't see Dusty letting Masset close unless Cordero just can't go. However, if he lets Chapman close then he can tell Cordero "well you needed a day of rest & the 9th inning lineup had some lefties. you are still my closer". Chapman gets some 9th inning experience & Dusty doesn't feel that Cordero's ego is bruised.

reds44
02-15-2011, 05:42 AM
You misunderstand me. If Dusty lets Masset (a right handed pitcher) close games while Cordero (also a right handed pitcher) sits then Cordero is getting disrespected. This is my take on the "Dusty as a player's manager" style. So I just don't see Dusty letting Masset close unless Cordero just can't go. However, if he lets Chapman close then he can tell Cordero "well you needed a day of rest & the 9th inning lineup had some lefties. you are still my closer". Chapman gets some 9th inning experience & Dusty doesn't feel that Cordero's ego is bruised.
Unless Cordero struggles MIGHTLY (even more than last year), you're not going to see anybody but him close games, no matter what hand the batters hit with. That's just not the way Dusty does thing. Rhodes was one of the best LHRP in baseball last year, and he never got a chance to close a game.

One way or another, Cordero is gone after this year. I voted Chapman, but it would be very Dusty of Dusty to give Masset the job. If Chapman is going to stay in the pen after this year, he needs to be closing.

I also see no logical reason why it would be Arredondo unless Chapman is moved into the rotation and Masset's arm falls off.

edabbs44
02-15-2011, 09:12 AM
Unless Cordero struggles MIGHTLY (even more than last year), you're not going to see anybody but him close games, no matter what hand the batters hit with. That's just not the way Dusty does thing. Rhodes was one of the best LHRP in baseball last year, and he never got a chance to close a game.

One way or another, Cordero is gone after this year. I voted Chapman, but it would be very Dusty of Dusty to give Masset the job. If Chapman is going to stay in the pen after this year, he needs to be closing.

I also see no logical reason why it would be Arredondo unless Chapman is moved into the rotation and Masset's arm falls off.

I have to disagree. I think Cordero's leash is very short this year. One year left on the contract plus the way he was treated last year makes me think that they have little confidence in him for 2011.

Caveat Emperor
02-15-2011, 09:25 AM
If David Weathers can be a 30 SV guy, that tells you the organization shouldn't waste too much time or money worrying about the issue.

My guess? Someone who isn't in the organization right now.

edabbs44
02-15-2011, 09:26 AM
If David Weathers can be a 30 SV guy, that tells you the organization shouldn't waste too much time or money worrying about the issue.

My guess? Someone who isn't in the organization right now.

David Weathers can be a 30 save guy on a 70 win team, but I think I'd rather have legit talent at the back end of the bullpen in Sept/Oct than Weathers.

_Sir_Charles_
02-15-2011, 09:36 AM
Well, I fully expect the Reds to be solid contenders again in 2012, so I don't see Walt & Co. going with someone unproven in the closers role. Sure, Chapman, Masset and even Homer have the stuff for it...but it's too soon for any of them with us in a competing role. They'll go out and get somebody fairly cheap to fill the void.

Now as to the individuals mentioned....yes, Chapman looks to be pen-bound again this season, but that is NOT their long-term vision for him. He's too talented to be relegated to less than 100 innings per season. I fully expect this season to be his last in the bullpen.

Masset certainly has the look & the stuff to be successful as a closer. But he's totally unproven up to this point. Now if he actually gets some considerable action in that role this season....maybe. But otherwise, he'll stay in the role he's in.

Homer is a bit of a wild card here in all this. He's certainly got the stuff for a closer, but he's also got the stamina and the stuff for a starter. If he fails to take another step forward this season, I think they'll try him in the bullpen next season. If he does step up, he's got the stuff to be a top of the rotation kind of pitcher. I firmly believe that this season is his make-or-break season in regards to his future as a starter or bullpenner. The lack of options simply solidifies this thinking for me.

Something not to be overlooked is the possibility of them re-signing Cordero to a much more modest contract for a shorter time-frame. If he does well this season and the team is successful, I could see it happening. I just can't envision Walt going with a young, unproven closer while in contention. I'm not saying I'd like this solution, just that I can easily see it happening.