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View Full Version : What is Homer Bailey's ceiling?



mlh1981
02-15-2011, 12:38 PM
He has had his moments in each of the past two year, but we are still waiting for him to put it all together. I think he has a good shot this year, as he has gained invaluable experience, and we all know he has the stuff. The question is, what do you guys expect out of him this year, and what present/past players does he compare to? I've always been intrigued by Bailey. I really like his demeanor on the mound, but he just has to fine tune a few things.

Kingspoint
02-15-2011, 09:35 PM
Homer Bailey's ceiling is still that of a #1 pitcher.

He's very young, has had a lot of Major League experience for someone his age already, has not had arm problems of any major variety, and he throws hard. That says #1 Starter still as a ceiling. We'll see if he takes another step forward this Spring and this season to get closer or further away from that ceiling.

Major League Baseball is all about adjustments at this point of his career. We'll find out what adjustments he made over the Winter.

lonewolf371
02-15-2011, 10:01 PM
His ceiling is very high. But to be honest, I'm expecting a modest 3.8-3.9 ERA this year and around 150 IP. If he does that, I'll be happy.

JKam
02-15-2011, 11:59 PM
If Homer Bailey can put up an era 3.8-3.9 this year, I'd be extremely happy. You'd have to say that would be a breakout year for Bailey. While it isn't necessarily #1 starter stuff, that is a huge improvement from what he's done before.

signalhome
02-16-2011, 12:45 AM
It's arguably higher than any other pitcher on the team, Chapman excluded. I don't think anyone projects Wood or Leake to be a TOR guy, though both have the potential to be very, very good pitchers. Cueto maybe, but Bailey was viewed all throughout the minors to be an ace, and he's shown flashes of it since his time in the bigs. He just needs to put it all together into one solid season.

As for the 3.80-3.90 ERA projection, I'd be thrilled with that. We all get impatient with him (me included) because it seems like he's been up in the bigs forever, but he's still just 24 years old. The potential to be a #1 guy is still there.

Krawhitham
02-16-2011, 01:25 AM
According to Pitch FX his fastball which he throws 73% of the time averages 92.71 MPH

http://www.joelefkowitz.com/pitch.php

He has no hammer to go with his fastball, and he never did come up with a good 3rd pitch


He is a #3 at best

Roush's socks
02-16-2011, 01:54 AM
It's arguably higher than any other pitcher on the team, Chapman excluded. I don't think anyone projects Wood or Leake to be a TOR guy, though both have the potential to be very, very good pitchers. Cueto maybe, but Bailey was viewed all throughout the minors to be an ace, and he's shown flashes of it since his time in the bigs. He just needs to put it all together into one solid season.

As for the 3.80-3.90 ERA projection, I'd be thrilled with that. We all get impatient with him (me included) because it seems like he's been up in the bigs forever, but he's still just 24 years old. The potential to be a #1 guy is still there.

Volquez was #2 in the 2008 Cy Young, and could return to that form. We can all hope that Bailey does better than that.

signalhome
02-16-2011, 02:50 AM
Volquez was #2 in the 2008 Cy Young, and could return to that form. We can all hope that Bailey does better than that.

Good call, if Volquez can keep his walk rate even below average and not terrible, he'll be great. His K/9 is good enough that he can have a bad BB/9 and still be effective. Last year he also really improved his GB% (though that was in a very small number of starts), that has me kind of excited about him this year. He can't have a walk rate over 4.50 (5.07 last year, 5.80 in nine starts in 2009; by comparison, 4.27 in 2008) and be the pitcher we want him to be, though. That's just too many free passes.

Forgot about Volquez, he's definitely got the potential to be a #1 guy if he can keep the walks down. I guess since we've seen so little of him the past two years, he slipped right through my mind.

bounty37h
02-16-2011, 02:13 PM
The thing Homer Baileys walls hold up.
Sorry, just dont have much more to add that hasnt been said above.

757690
02-16-2011, 02:32 PM
Being an Ace is not always about velocity.

Halliday
Lee
Carpenter
Wainwright
Hudson

are all guys who throw around 90-92 and are Aces.

Being an Ace is as much about pitching smarts as it is ability. That's why any of the Reds young starting pitchers could become a true #1, and why I think Homer never will be.

UPRedsFan
02-16-2011, 02:57 PM
I can't say I've ever been really impressed with Homer's stuff just from watching on tv. Volquez and Cueto have better stuff to my amature eye.

Cueto's slider and Volquez' change up look pretty unhittable at times.

Now, if Homer can use that split finger this year with more frequency, and cut down on his pitch count, maybe he jumps into that category.

Roush's socks
02-16-2011, 06:18 PM
I can't say I've ever been really impressed with Homer's stuff just from watching on tv. Volquez and Cueto have better stuff to my amature eye.

Cueto's slider and Volquez' change up look pretty unhittable at times.

Now, if Homer can use that split finger this year with more frequency, and cut down on his pitch count, maybe he jumps into that category.

Agree that Homer needs the split finger or some other 3rd pitch if he wants to be a TOR pitcher.

mroby85
02-16-2011, 11:22 PM
I think Bailey has a really high ceiling, unfortunately I think he has a really low basement as well. Based on his demeanor on the mound, and things i've read about him, I think the biggest determining factor in what he turns into is between his ears. He needs to learn to keep his composure, and not completely flip out on the mound when a couple things go wrong. That being said, I really like him and hope he reaches his potential. He seems to have matured a little bit of the last couple years so hopefully that trend continues. He looked very impressive out of the pen in the playoffs.

Kingspoint
02-17-2011, 07:46 AM
If Homer Bailey can put up an era 3.8-3.9 this year, I'd be extremely happy. You'd have to say that would be a breakout year for Bailey. While it isn't necessarily #1 starter stuff, that is a huge improvement from what he's done before.

I agree. I think lonewolf's numbers are a fair hope/expectation for Bailey.

RedsLvr
02-18-2011, 01:17 PM
His potential is very high..but that's just what it is, potential.