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bucksfan2
02-15-2011, 04:56 PM
With Spring training set to start tomorrow lets get some predictions going. Lets try and make them surprising but possible. Here are a couple of mine:

- Mesoraco almost forces his way onto the big league club. I see Mesoraco in a similar situation as Posey last year. Good enough to head north/east with the club but starts the season in AAA.

- Valakia makes the club as a utility INF and Cairo is cut.

- Todd Frazier wins the LF platoon job with Lewis, Gomes is traded.

- Willis wins the LH bullpen slot, Chapman is sent to AAA to be a starter.

Surprises: Willis, Frazier, Mesoraco, Hamilton
Disappointments: Alonso, Francisco, and Gomes

TRF
02-15-2011, 05:05 PM
Leake sent to minors, vows to prove management wrong.

Trade rumors swirl during ST about Bailey, nothing happens and he breaks camp as #4 starter. Because he's out of options he's the #4 instead of the team's #5 starter, Travis Wood.

Danny Dorn OPS's .950+ in ST and is eventually traded to the (Insert team name here).

Janish, afraid to relax in ST posts the same numbers he did last ST, except this time getting the majority of starts at SS.

OnBaseMachine
02-15-2011, 05:26 PM
Weird. I nearly started a thread with the same exact title just a few hours ago and decided to wait until tonight to do it. No need to now.

I agree with you on Mesoraco. I think he has a big spring and nearly forces his way onto the Opening Day roster.

Donnie Joseph has a great spring but in the end is one of the last players cut due to the Reds having an abundance of lefties in the pen (Bray, Chapman, Willis).

David Sappelt has an impressive spring. The only question is whether the Reds will deal Gomes to make room for him. My guess is no since the Reds seem to be in love with him.

Travis Wood and Homer Bailey win the 4th and 5th starter spots with Mike Leake going to Louisville to pitch every fifth day. I really like Leake a lot but I think Wood deserves to be in the rotation and he's more prepared to pitch a full season right now and I think Bailey is primed for a breakout. Leake will see plenty of time in Cincy this season though.

Ron Madden
02-16-2011, 05:26 AM
I'd love to see Todd Frazier take Miguel Cairo's job.

Not much of a chance of that happening but I hope it does.

Dan
02-16-2011, 11:41 AM
Saw a couple pictures of Billy Hamilton. I bet he forces his way up to high-A to start the season. Just have a feeling he's going to come on quickly.

RedsManRick
02-16-2011, 01:02 PM
I don't see any big surprises:

- Bailey and Wood make the rotation
- Leake to AAA
- Reds start the season without a lefty on the bench (other than Lewis)
- Arredondo makes the club
- Janish has a good spring and puts an Renteria rumors to rest
- Final bullpen battles are between Ondrusek vs. Burton (for RH middle relief) and Smith vs. LeCure (for long man)
- Sappelt makes a really good impression and the Heisey trade rumors start up

Edd Roush
02-16-2011, 02:40 PM
Saw a couple pictures of Billy Hamilton. I bet he forces his way up to high-A to start the season. Just have a feeling he's going to come on quickly.

I don't see this happening. The Reds have been pretty good about getting all of their guys a year in Dayton, especially kids drafted out of high school, to keep the Dayton management happy and for the players to experience a special minor league environment. The Dragons are much more likely to be a winning ballclub than the Blaze and while Billy is certainly a promising prospect, there is no reason to absolutely skip a level that most players enjoy playing at.

As for my own Spring Training Predictions, I hope and I am also pretty sure Walt won't make any snap judgments on a small sample size.

I look for Bailey and Wood to round out the rotation. Leake will be upset he will be sent to AAA, but he will see time when a starter is put on the DL.
I think one of the biggest battles this Spring Training is between Hermida and Heisey for the fifth outfield spot. If Hermida can show the ability to play centerfield in spring training and hits a little bit, I can see Walt bringing him up the big club so we have a lefty on the bench against a right-handed starter.
I also see a pretty big battle for the last two spots in the bullpen between Burton, Arredondo, LeCure, Smith and Willis. I see Burton and Arredondo coming out on top.
I also see Walt sticking with Janish as his Opening Day starting shortstop unless Janish gets hurt during Spring Training.
The number one goal of Spring Training is to get the guys playing as a team and hope for as few injuries as possible.

I can't wait to follow some of the younger guys in these Spring Training games and see how they can do against major league talent. I'm particularly looking forward to seeing Mesoraco, Frazier, Alonso and Francisco as those guys could make a major impact in 2011 in the case of an injury.

I hope those of you calling for a Posey-like 2011 out of Mesoraco are correct. An All-Star catcher would certainly be a major shot in the arm down the stretch.

lollipopcurve
02-16-2011, 02:58 PM
I don't quite see the Mesoraco-Posey thing. People often make the mistake of thinking the last-big-thing will come again. I don't think Mes has the overall polish Posey did. But I do think Mes will open some eyes with his bat, primarily his power.

I think Alonso will settle down and hit better than he ever has in a big league environment. If nothing else, he's due.

In general, I think it will be a good camp for those guys getting ready to repeat a full year in AAA.

Willis will start great, but fade.

bucksfan2
02-16-2011, 03:35 PM
I don't expect Mes to be Posey good. Just expect Mes to play well enough to force himself onto the Reds earlier rather than later this season. Just see some parallels between Posey/Mes and Molina/Hernandez.

reds44
02-16-2011, 04:14 PM
Mes has the ability to force his way up here and be the everyday catcher by July.

edabbs44
02-16-2011, 04:48 PM
Mes has the ability to force his way up here and be the everyday catcher by July.

Can't see it. 2012 is his time, IMO.

dunner13
02-16-2011, 04:54 PM
I think Janish will struggle to hit in spring and renteria will end up getting the opening day start although the reds will say its split playing time, but after a few weeks renteria will get the majority of the starts.

Hermedia will have a huge spring and many will be pushing for him to win the LF job.

Mes will have a very nice spring but will be sent down until ramon gets hurt in june.

Chapman will absolutely dominate and make everyone wish coco would retire, and follow in the footsteps of Gil Meche by giving his money back because he didn't earn it.

TRF
02-16-2011, 06:18 PM
just tossing this out there... Janish ST 2010 numbers:



PLAYER AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI
------ --- - -- - - -- -- -- -- ---
P Janish .350 20 40 4 14 23 3 0 2 9

Razor Shines
02-16-2011, 09:44 PM
With Spring training set to start tomorrow lets get some predictions going. Lets try and make them surprising but possible. Here are a couple of mine:

- Mesoraco almost forces his way onto the big league club. I see Mesoraco in a similar situation as Posey last year. Good enough to head north/east with the club but starts the season in AAA.

- Valakia makes the club as a utility INF and Cairo is cut.

- Todd Frazier wins the LF platoon job with Lewis, Gomes is traded.

- Willis wins the LH bullpen slot, Chapman is sent to AAA to be a starter.

Surprises: Willis, Frazier, Mesoraco, Hamilton
Disappointments: Alonso, Francisco, and Gomes
I like all of that and I hope you're right. I'm skeptical, but I again I really hope you're right.

hebroncougar
02-16-2011, 10:11 PM
Didn't the Reds give Cairo a two year deal?

redsmetz
02-17-2011, 10:30 AM
Didn't the Reds give Cairo a two year deal?

Yes, it is a two year deal at $1M/year. Keep in mind that if we cut him next year, we eat the remaining contract less the ML minimum. If he plays for someone else next season, we're out $600K with the new team paying the $400K minimum (or whatever the COLA raises it to).

Homer Bailey
02-17-2011, 11:32 AM
Yes, it is a two year deal at $1M/year. Keep in mind that if we cut him next year, we eat the remaining contract less the ML minimum. If he plays for someone else next season, we're out $600K with the new team paying the $400K minimum (or whatever the COLA raises it to).

Is that the case? I always thought that $400K was just "extra" money earned by the player. I could obviously be wrong.

camisadelgolf
02-17-2011, 12:10 PM
Is that the case? I always thought that $400K was just "extra" money earned by the player. I could obviously be wrong.
Yes, redsmetz is correct about that.

redsmetz
02-17-2011, 12:33 PM
Is that the case? I always thought that $400K was just "extra" money earned by the player. I could obviously be wrong.

No the player will only earn what is left on the contract. Now if he is waived and someone claims him straight up, they're taking on the entire contract. But if he clears waivers and becomes a free agent, then the new team only pays the pro-rated share of the minimum with the Reds picking up the balance. So again, worst case is we're out only $600K (or somewhat less, there's supposed to be a COLA adjustment to the min in 2011 according to the CBA).

redsmetz
02-17-2011, 12:41 PM
I don't have any direct predictions, but I think the contract status of some players will impact things. The two best possibilities of non-roster players making the club are Willis and Hermida. For them to make the club, roster spots will have to be cleared. To do so, we may well see a player moved. Herrara's good candidate for that. It's possible too, someone like Heisey may be traded, etc. I think that Arredondo is the only 40 man player who is out of options, so he'll have a leg up. Does someone know if that is correct though?

I don't think Mesoraco or Joseph or Sappelt have much of a chance of making the club out of spring whether they're lights out or not. There may come time during the season that one or another gets a shot if someone goes on the 60 day DL, but that's not a factor right now. I don't know of anyone who is eligible as things stand now (Thompson's healthy again, right?).

I do think we could see someone or another moved, whether it's Herrara, LeCure or Maloney. I can't recall what the answer was about who else will be in the rotation at Louisville, although I suspect that the loser of the final starter spot here will be one. I just don't think there's room for that person to be in the pen here, but I could be wrong.

The Operator
02-18-2011, 10:18 AM
I think that Arredondo is the only 40 man player who is out of options, so he'll have a leg up. Does someone know if that is correct though?I believe Homer Bailey is out of options.

Homer Bailey
02-18-2011, 11:04 AM
I believe Homer Bailey is out of options.

Good, because I'm not a very good decision maker.

camisadelgolf
02-18-2011, 01:57 PM
I believe Homer Bailey is out of options.
This is correct.

JaxRed
02-19-2011, 09:53 AM
I'll say that Wood goes to the minors rather than Leake. I just think the Reds are now fixated on the "never been in the minors" thing.

Essentially zero roster surprises in the final run.

Chances of Non-40 man guys Mesaraco, Joseph, Sappelt making roster? None
I'll say Mesaraco and Yonder have average to below average springs.
None of the minor leaguers like Frazier, Valaika, Francisco make the team.
Willis despite poor numbers makes the team (because I think it was promised to him)

Danny Ray is the one that loses his 40 man spot unless their is an injury.

mth123
02-19-2011, 10:20 AM
Agree mostly with Jax. Here is what I think happens:

1. Alonso hardly gets a look in LF, is sent out early and plays in the minor league games.

2. Francisco's OPS will be in the 1.000 range and Cairo will struggle badly, but Juan gets sent down and Cairo spends a lot of time showing that last season's cinderella year for him is over. Its past midnight and the Reds clogged the roster with a pumpkin and not the nice carrieage that he appeared to be in 2010.

3. In what may be the move that would most be considered a surprise, Willis, Arredoindo and Burton all make the team. Logan Ondrusek is optioned to AAA.

4. Heisey goes down. Hermida wins the 5th OF spot.

5. Leake to AAA. Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Wood, Bailey is the rotation. I think you could see a shuttle up and down with Leake and Wood and some use of the DL to get them all at least 15 starts. The Reds may even go to the 6 man rotation for short stretches during the year, but Leake goes down to start the season IMO.

6. Rolen struggles with his shoulder and his power looks like a thing of the past.

7. Lewis impresses, but Gomes stays in the job full-time anyway. The Reds point to the need for another lefty bat on the bench. Lewis ends up taking more PT from Stubbs than Gomes. Its won't be a straight platoon, but Lewis plays CF say 3 times in a two week period and he or Stubbs lead-off.

membengal
02-19-2011, 10:56 AM
I don't think Walt and Reds care two cents for never-been-in-the-minors and that will have zero bearing on how the decisions on the pitching staff shake out.