PDA

View Full Version : Reds a .500 team???



texasdave
02-16-2011, 09:30 AM
NL Central W L WPct RS RA AVG OBP SLG
St. Louis 88 74 0.543 763 695 0.271 0.347 0.409
Milwaukee 85 77 0.525 767 730 0.262 0.332 0.428
Cincinnati 81 81 0.500 740 740 0.263 0.331 0.415
Chicago 80 82 0.494 768 780 0.264 0.332 0.425
Pittsburgh 71 91 0.438 706 810 0.258 0.322 0.406
Houston 68 94 0.420 628 755 0.252 0.305 0.389


According to one prominent baseball website they are.

Redsnake
02-16-2011, 09:42 AM
WOW!?
Only one game better than the Cubs? This team is closer to 4th than 1st?
Let the season begin.

Todd Gack
02-16-2011, 09:59 AM
WOW!?
Only one game better than the Cubs? This team is closer to 4th than 1st?
Let the season begin.

If we're going off last year, I don't see how it's that incredulous the team could end up there. We feasted off some really bad teams. The NL Central will end up being better than last year which means we have to be better. Scott Rolen has to stay healthy. CoCo has to save games. Bailey has to step up. Leake can't have 1 good half of a season. Jonny Gomes needs to play well more than 1 month this year. We have a lot of questions to answer too.

CySeymour
02-16-2011, 12:19 PM
If we're going off last year, I don't see how it's that incredulous the team could end up there. We feasted off some really bad teams. The NL Central will end up being better than last year which means we have to be better. Scott Rolen has to stay healthy. CoCo has to save games. Bailey has to step up. Leake can't have 1 good half of a season. Jonny Gomes needs to play well more than 1 month this year. We have a lot of questions to answer too.


I agree. I don't think the projection is that outlandish. But hey, they play the games for a reason, so we shall see.

mroby85
02-16-2011, 12:27 PM
I think Scott Rolen is a big question mark. He was a subpar cleanup hitter last year in my opinion, and seemed to be less effective later in the year. I liked him, and think he was solid, but I'm talking about him in terms of a cleanup hitter to protect Votto which will most likely be his role. I would feel so much better about this team going into the year if they would've dropped 2-3 million on Manny, and had Votto, Manny, Bruce, Rolen in the order instead of Votto, Rolen, Bruce. They also lose Arthur Rhodes, who was a staple in the late innings in the bullpen. Even if he wouldn't have been as good resigned, its hard to imagine them having someone as effective as he was last year. You have to hope for Stubbs, and Bruce getting better along with the young rotation of Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Wood, etc.

brm7675
02-16-2011, 12:32 PM
Anything is possible in a season...predictions are like well you know...everyone has one..

New York Red
02-16-2011, 03:56 PM
No chance this team, with so much young talent and the playoff chase experience of a year ago, goes backward. No way.

brm7675
02-16-2011, 04:32 PM
No chance this team, with so much young talent and the playoff chase experience of a year ago, goes backward. No way.

You can't say that, injuries can ruin and team and with that you never know whom will get struck down or for how long.....

757690
02-16-2011, 04:50 PM
You can't say that, injuries can ruin and team and with that you never know whom will get struck down or for how long.....

But that is true with all the teams, and has to be considered when making projections. To be honest, if the writer did include the possibility of injury, he would have ranked the Reds in first, as they have by far the best depth of any team in the division.

Sure the Reds could finish below .500 in last place. The point of making projections is saying what is likely to happen, not what could happen.

I don't see how the likelyhood of the Reds finishing at .500 is as good as the likelyhood of the the Cardinals winning 88 games.

757690
02-16-2011, 04:53 PM
If we're going off last year, I don't see how it's that incredulous the team could end up there. We feasted off some really bad teams. The NL Central will end up being better than last year which means we have to be better. Scott Rolen has to stay healthy. CoCo has to save games. Bailey has to step up. Leake can't have 1 good half of a season. Jonny Gomes needs to play well more than 1 month this year. We have a lot of questions to answer too.

Every team in the division has similar if not greater questions.

You are right, it's not incredulous that the Reds finish at .500, but I don't think it's likely that they will either.

Redsnake
02-16-2011, 04:53 PM
I understand that it's not to far fetched that the Reds could slide in games won.
However, Make the case that the Cards and Brewers are that much better than the Reds.

Brewers added Marcum and Greinke? There nice additions, but Marcum is maybe a 15 game winner if lucky. Grienke is still a sub .500 pitchers in wins (60W and 67L) . It's cool to pick them, but I don't see it.
The offense produced career years for McGehee, Weeks and Hart.
Braun had a Braun type of year.
Fielder can only go up from last year.

Cards got older and worse defensivley.

JeremiahHorsley
02-16-2011, 05:03 PM
I understand that it's not to far fetched that the Reds could slide in games won.
However, Make the case that the Cards and Brewers are that much better than the Reds.

Brewers added Marcum and Greinke? There nice additions, but Marcum is maybe a 15 game winner if lucky. Grienke is still a sub .500 pitchers in wins (60W and 67L) . It's cool to pick them, but I don't see it.
The offense produced career years for McGehee, Weeks and Hart.
Braun had a Braun type of year.
Fielder can only go up from last year.

Cards got older and worse defensivley.

Honestly, I could see the Reds winning 95 games this year, I don't see the Brewers being any better than they were last year, Can't agree more about the Cards. Only real addition was Berkman and if you ask me he's old and dried up at this point.

DirtyBaker
02-16-2011, 05:39 PM
There's a lot of depth on this 2011 team. I don't see the inevitable 15-day DL trips hurting production at all. It would take multiple injuries to one position before we'll have to worry about injuries costing us wins.

Mutaman
02-16-2011, 06:10 PM
The Reds are not a .500 team- too much pitching. This is the time of year when national media types who don't know what they're talking about make dumb predictions. Like those who predicted the Cowboys would be in the Super Bowl. Which websight is this from?

texasdave
02-16-2011, 06:16 PM
I really think they are off-base with this prediction. Last year the Reds gave up 685 runs. In this prediction they have the Reds giving up 740 runs - an increase of about 10% actually. I would think, if anything, the Reds pitching would be better this year. We shall see.

Oxblood
02-16-2011, 06:23 PM
We need to remember that the division is much stronger this season. Last year it was the worst in the NL, this year it might possibly be the best.

Cuban_Missile
02-16-2011, 06:44 PM
We need to remember that the division is much stronger this season. Last year it was the worst in the NL, this year it might possibly be the best.

We still proved last year however that we are a good enough team to be pre ranked better than a .500 team. I find this a bit embarrassing really.

signalhome
02-16-2011, 07:43 PM
Honestly, I could see the Reds winning 95 games this year, I don't see the Brewers being any better than they were last year, Can't agree more about the Cards. Only real addition was Berkman and if you ask me he's old and dried up at this point.

They added Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to go with Gallardo. Their rotation is right up there with the Cards.

I don't agree with the Cards being higher than the Reds, though. I think the division comes down to the Reds and the Brewers. The Cubs will finish right there with the Cards, somewhere around third place. The trade they made for Garza was foolish, but it does help their chances of winning this year. Carlos Pena is another good addition. There's no way he hits .196 again (his BABIP was .222 last year, that's extremely unlucky), and thanks to his absurd walk rate and power, he only has to hit around .230 to be a very effective player. The Cubs did as good of a job as they could at filling their hole at 1B with Lee gone.

LeDoux
02-16-2011, 11:20 PM
NL Central W L WPct RS RA AVG OBP SLG
St. Louis 88 74 0.543 763 695 0.271 0.347 0.409
Milwaukee 85 77 0.525 767 730 0.262 0.332 0.428
Cincinnati 81 81 0.500 740 740 0.263 0.331 0.415
Chicago 80 82 0.494 768 780 0.264 0.332 0.425
Pittsburgh 71 91 0.438 706 810 0.258 0.322 0.406
Houston 68 94 0.420 628 755 0.252 0.305 0.389


According to one prominent baseball website they are.

Which website is this? I am curious about their reasoning.

RedsLvr
02-16-2011, 11:30 PM
Sure, the division got better..but so did the Reds..

Roush's socks
02-17-2011, 02:30 AM
I don't see the Reds pitching giving up 740 runs. That would be a disappointment. If anything I think it is more likely that their hitting takes a step backwards from last year. If Rolen is done and can't come back to form, and Lewis is a loser, Hernandez comes back to his career numbers, and Bruce doesn't have the big season we are all hoping for, this offense becomes kind of average.

This prediction is too low for the Reds. The CAIRO pre-season predictions which are computer simulations based on current rosters show the Reds in a three way race with the Cards and Brewers all pretty even.

The Reds are hard to predict because they have so many young players who are on the verge of becoming stars. A lot to look forward to this year.