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View Full Version : Jose Bautista at an average of $13 million a year



savafan
02-19-2011, 09:02 PM
For this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bautijo02.shtml the Blue Jays have signed Bautista to a 5 year $64 million extension. At 30 years old after stops with five major league organizations and one good season, Bautista has apparently "earned" this.

I imagine that Blue Jays fans have to be thrilled now that Vernon Wells' contract is gone and management can be smart about how they spend money. I don't know, I think I would have waited until after this season just to see if 2010 was a fluke.

The Operator
02-19-2011, 09:05 PM
Yea, I think I would have wanted a little more evidence that he was for real.

RedsManRick
02-19-2011, 10:30 PM
I'll never understand moves this like. Is the guy going to get better? Why lock yourself in to a deal when the guy is at the absolute peak of his value?

hebroncougar
02-19-2011, 10:37 PM
Especially after just finding a sucker to take the Wells contract. They need to save money to chase Votto in 3 years, you know he wants to go there.

Razor Shines
02-19-2011, 11:06 PM
Especially after just finding a sucker to take the Wells contract. They need to save money to chase Votto in 3 years, you know he wants to go there.

Well as much as a lot of us thought the Wells move set them up at a run at Votto, maybe this cancels that out. One less team for the reds to contend with?

Johnny Footstool
02-20-2011, 02:32 AM
But he's clean! He said so in interviews!

Griffey012
02-20-2011, 03:13 AM
I'll never understand moves this like. Is the guy going to get better? Why lock yourself in to a deal when the guy is at the absolute peak of his value?

Which is potentially what the Reds did with Arroyo and Votto.

KronoRed
02-20-2011, 03:44 AM
Time for him to get off the juice and sit back and relax.

kpresidente
02-20-2011, 10:39 AM
I imagine that Blue Jays fans have to be thrilled now that Vernon Wells' contract is gone and management can be smart about how they spend money. I don't know, I think I would have waited until after this season just to see if 2010 was a fluke.

Of course, if you wait and he repeats, you're never going to get him for $13M/year. I think that's a good contract, the uncertainty seems accounted for. After all, it's the same amount we're paying for Arroyo. I don't think the guy's going to hit 54 HRs ever again in his career, but even if he only averages 30 home runs, I'd rather have that in LF than Arroyo on the mound.

PuffyPig
02-20-2011, 10:50 AM
I'll never understand moves this like. Is the guy going to get better? Why lock yourself in to a deal when the guy is at the absolute peak of his value?

He repeats his year (or anything close) and you will see his "absolute peak value" take a huge upward jump like a rocket. He might then be a $20m player.

$13M could be a huge steal, but if he regresses into the .850 OPS range, it's still an OK deal.

traderumor
02-20-2011, 11:35 AM
Call it the "Brady Anderson" effect.

This can also be used as an example whenever one needs it to support the stupidity that resides in professional sports franchise front offices. I am usually first in line to give management the benefit of the doubt, but the Jays front office is on their own here.

Tom Servo
02-20-2011, 01:01 PM
He grows a sweet beard.

Big Klu
02-20-2011, 04:07 PM
I still can't get past him being a below-average utility infielder for the Pirates.

traderumor
02-20-2011, 05:20 PM
I still can't get past him being a below-average utility infielder for the Pirates.
He just had to embrace the aggressive hitting style taught by the Jays hitting coach. That's all there was to it.

Ghosts of 1990
02-21-2011, 02:15 PM
Which is potentially what the Reds did with Arroyo and Votto.

It was a little different. Arroyo has been consistent for a while, not just one season that jumps off the page and whole bunch of other mediocre seasons.

Votto's contract was a raise in good faith that he'll remember he was treated right when he's heading for free agency in a short amount of time. Also, Votto is only 27 this year and is coming off an MVP season--possibly still building to his peak while Mr. Bautista is already older than that and has probably reached his peak.

dougdirt
02-21-2011, 02:56 PM
Dave Cameron at Fangraphs had this to say last week on the deal (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jose-bautista-cashes-in/):
Let’s start with what the Jays are not paying for – this deal does not pay for the expectation that Bautista will hit like he did in 2010 again. He was a +7 win player last year, and if they were paying for that kind of performance going forward, they would have had to add another $100 million to get a deal done. At $65 million over five years, we essentially come up with the following expectation:

2011 – +3.4 WAR, $5 million per win, $17.5 million value
2012 – +2.9 WAR, $5.25M $/win, $15.23 million value
2013 – +2.4 WAR, $5.51M $/win, $13.23 million value
2014 – +1.9 WAR, $5.69M $/win, $11.00 million value
2015 – +1.4 WAR, $6.08M $/win, $8.51 million value

Total: +12 WAR, $64.96 million value

You can read the rest of the article at the link above, but there is an argument to be made that the contract isn't really a poor one.

TheNext44
02-21-2011, 03:07 PM
Dave Cameron at Fangraphs had this to say last week on the deal (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jose-bautista-cashes-in/):
Let’s start with what the Jays are not paying for – this deal does not pay for the expectation that Bautista will hit like he did in 2010 again. He was a +7 win player last year, and if they were paying for that kind of performance going forward, they would have had to add another $100 million to get a deal done. At $65 million over five years, we essentially come up with the following expectation:

2011 – +3.4 WAR, $5 million per win, $17.5 million value
2012 – +2.9 WAR, $5.25M $/win, $15.23 million value
2013 – +2.4 WAR, $5.51M $/win, $13.23 million value
2014 – +1.9 WAR, $5.69M $/win, $11.00 million value
2015 – +1.4 WAR, $6.08M $/win, $8.51 million value

Total: +12 WAR, $64.96 million value

You can read the rest of the article at the link above, but there is an argument to be made that the contract isn't really a poor one.


It might not be a poor one, but the problem with analysis like that is that it assumes that paying a player what he is worth is a good thing.

Teams, especially the Blue Jays who have to compete against the Yanks and Sawks, have to get maximum value out of nearly every contract. They can't afford to play every player what he's worth, no team can, except maybe the Yankees.

That means if they are paying certain players what they are worth, which you have to with elite, older talent, you have to make sure it's the right players.

The question is not how smart is that contract, but whether Bautista is the right player to give it to.

dougdirt
02-21-2011, 03:13 PM
It might not be a poor one, but the problem with analysis like that is that it assumes that paying a player what he is worth is a good thing.

Teams, especially the Blue Jays who have to compete against the Yanks and Sawks, have to get maximum value out of nearly every contract. They can't afford to play every player what he's worth, no team can, except maybe the Yankees.

That means if they are paying certain players what they are worth, which you have to with elite, older talent, you have to make sure it's the right players.

The question is not how smart is that contract, but whether Bautista is the right player to give it to.

Sure, but what if Bautista goes down to a 4 win player in 2011, and ages appropriately? Then the Blue Jays absolutely are getting more value than their buck. There is some risk involved and a chance he turns into Rich Aurilia (one huge season, then a bunch of 1.5-3 win seasons). Maybe even a higher risk than normal given his complete and utter lack of a good season before last year. But I think there is also plenty of reason to think that last years breakout was pretty real (not to the extent of expecting 50 HR's in the future, but a good amount of power moving forward).

TheNext44
02-21-2011, 03:17 PM
Sure, but what if Bautista goes down to a 4 win player in 2011, and ages appropriately? Then the Blue Jays absolutely are getting more value than their buck. There is some risk involved and a chance he turns into Rich Aurilia (one huge season, then a bunch of 1.5-3 win seasons). Maybe even a higher risk than normal given his complete and utter lack of a good season before last year. But I think there is also plenty of reason to think that last years breakout was pretty real (not to the extent of expecting 50 HR's in the future, but a good amount of power moving forward).

I completely agree. I'm just pointing that is where the argument for and against hum lies, in who he really is, not details of the contract. Still solid analysis by Cameron again, as usual.

REDREAD
02-21-2011, 03:27 PM
It might not be a poor one, but the problem with analysis like that is that it assumes that paying a player what he is worth is a good thing.
.

I have a big problem with this type of analysis though.
WAR is a flawed stat.
5 million per "win" (per WAR) might be the market rate, but it's not exactly a bargain.

In 2008, Harang gave us 184 innings of 4.78 ERA pitching. WHIP was 1.38. That somehow was worth 2 WAR. Does anyone seriously believe that Harang gave us 10 million of production that year? He was really average at best that year. I appreciate him eating innings, but if we signed a pitcher to a one year, 10 million dollar deal, and he turned in that performance, most on this board would not be happy.

I understand that on the free agent market, premium talent commands a premium, but IMO calling 5 million/WAR as "fair" is not a good evaluation.

dougdirt
02-21-2011, 03:35 PM
I have a big problem with this type of analysis though.
WAR is a flawed stat.
5 million per "win" (per WAR) might be the market rate, but it's not exactly a bargain.

In 2008, Harang gave us 184 innings of 4.78 ERA pitching. WHIP was 1.38. That somehow was worth 2 WAR. Does anyone seriously believe that Harang gave us 10 million of production that year? He was really average at best that year. I appreciate him eating innings, but if we signed a pitcher to a one year, 10 million dollar deal, and he turned in that performance, most on this board would not be happy.

I understand that on the free agent market, premium talent commands a premium, but IMO calling 5 million/WAR as "fair" is not a good evaluation.

It is roughly the going rate though, so fair or not, that is what teams are paying for it. The other things with pitching and evaluating it by ERA/WHIP is that some of that is out of his control. The defense behind you has to get things done too.

medford
02-21-2011, 03:49 PM
Isn't Arroyo's deal done by the time Joey's 3 year deal is up? I thought Bronson had 3 years on his deal, including this season. I know some money is deferred, but I didn't think it was all that much.

bucksfan2
02-21-2011, 03:59 PM
It is roughly the going rate though, so fair or not, that is what teams are paying for it. The other things with pitching and evaluating it by ERA/WHIP is that some of that is out of his control. The defense behind you has to get things done too.

You think when a GM sits down to do a contract he uses WAR as the baseline for the contract?

Even the most ardent supporters have to realize that its a flawed stat based upon its reliance on defensive metrics that aren't exact enough. To me its more food for thought. You can throw it around to add in comparisons but how much it really plays into contracts is very debatable.

As for Bautista I would not have extended him. IMO its very difficult to predict what he will do not only in the future but even in the near future. I don't think anybody thinks he will hit 50 HR's next season, but what happens if he hits 40? What is he worth then?

What I would have done is stuck with the arb figure and then attempted to trade him as the season goes along. When you traded (gave away) a lot of your talent over the course of the past few seasons, collecting prospects may have been the best way for the Blue Jays to operate. I don't think this contract will be as bad as the Rios or Wells contracts, but it will be a difficult one to move. And FWIW I don't think Bautista is the kind of player you build around.

dougdirt
02-21-2011, 04:06 PM
You think when a GM sits down to do a contract he uses WAR as the baseline for the contract?
No, I don't think they do. But even with that said, it sure works out pretty well that they end up paying like that on the large scale.



Even the most ardent supporters have to realize that its a flawed stat based upon its reliance on defensive metrics that aren't exact enough. To me its more food for thought. You can throw it around to add in comparisons but how much it really plays into contracts is very debatable.
WAR, to me, is a general baseline. There is no be all end all stat out there. There likely never will be.



As for Bautista I would not have extended him. IMO its very difficult to predict what he will do not only in the future but even in the near future. I don't think anybody thinks he will hit 50 HR's next season, but what happens if he hits 40? What is he worth then? That certainly depends on what else he does, but if he hits 30 HR's, he is very likely going to be worth more than he is paid.

Sea Ray
02-21-2011, 04:19 PM
Dave Cameron at Fangraphs had this to say last week on the deal (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jose-bautista-cashes-in/):
Let’s start with what the Jays are not paying for – this deal does not pay for the expectation that Bautista will hit like he did in 2010 again. He was a +7 win player last year, and if they were paying for that kind of performance going forward, they would have had to add another $100 million to get a deal done. At $65 million over five years, we essentially come up with the following expectation:

2011 – +3.4 WAR, $5 million per win, $17.5 million value
2012 – +2.9 WAR, $5.25M $/win, $15.23 million value
2013 – +2.4 WAR, $5.51M $/win, $13.23 million value
2014 – +1.9 WAR, $5.69M $/win, $11.00 million value
2015 – +1.4 WAR, $6.08M $/win, $8.51 million value

Total: +12 WAR, $64.96 million value

You can read the rest of the article at the link above, but there is an argument to be made that the contract isn't really a poor one.

According to BB Ref he was a 5.6 WAR player last year and a combined 5.9 over his 7 yr career. Prior to last year he'd had one 2.0 WAR year and the next best was 0.5. So to expect +12 WAR over the next 5 yrs seems to be particularly optimistic

dougdirt
02-21-2011, 04:22 PM
According to BB Ref he was a 5.6 WAR player last year and a combined 5.9 over his 7 yr career. Prior to last year he'd had one 2.0 WAR year and the next best was 0.5. So to expect +12 WAR over the next 5 yrs seems to be particularly optimistic

BR and FG use different WAR formulas.

But the player that Bautista was before he changed his approach isn't likely coming back. At the very least, his power output should be quite a bit better than it was before he made the change in approach.

TheNext44
02-21-2011, 04:23 PM
I have a big problem with this type of analysis though.
WAR is a flawed stat.
5 million per "win" (per WAR) might be the market rate, but it's not exactly a bargain.

In 2008, Harang gave us 184 innings of 4.78 ERA pitching. WHIP was 1.38. That somehow was worth 2 WAR. Does anyone seriously believe that Harang gave us 10 million of production that year? He was really average at best that year. I appreciate him eating innings, but if we signed a pitcher to a one year, 10 million dollar deal, and he turned in that performance, most on this board would not be happy.

I understand that on the free agent market, premium talent commands a premium, but IMO calling 5 million/WAR as "fair" is not a good evaluation.

WAR has some flaws, especially with pitchers, but if want, you can come up with another system of ranking the value players have each year, even one based on counting stats, and you'll find the results very similar.

Sea Ray
02-21-2011, 04:27 PM
That certainly depends on what else he does, but if he hits 30 HR's, he is very likely going to be worth more than he is paid.

If you use the figure of $8mill then I agree with you, but the devil in this deal are the $14mill salaries due the next 4 yrs.

dougdirt
02-21-2011, 04:36 PM
If you use the figure of $8mill then I agree with you, but the devil in this deal are the $14mill salaries due the next 4 yrs.

Triple slash line wise (considering defensively he is a little below average), what would he need to do to be worth that much money in your opinion?

REDREAD
02-21-2011, 04:56 PM
It is roughly the going rate though, so fair or not, that is what teams are paying for it. The other things with pitching and evaluating it by ERA/WHIP is that some of that is out of his control. The defense behind you has to get things done too.

I think ERA for a starting pitcher that had 180 IP is a fair measure.
Sure, it's somewhat dependent on the team's bullpen and defense, but it's the actual number of runs he was charged with. It's more solid than FIP and all these other theoretical measures.

In any event, Harang was mediocre that year, yet WAR claims that production would be worth 10 million on the free market and it would be a "fair deal"..

Here's another example. In 2009, with the Nats, Dunn OPSed 928, over 668 plate appearances, was only worth .9 WAR.. That means he's only worth 4.5 million? How does that make any sense? The 2008 version of Harang was worth more than twice as much? Then the following year, Dunn was moved to 1b, had lesser offensive numbers, but since he was moved to 1b, his WAR jumped to 3.6, despite losing .036 of OPS.. It's the same guy, yet WAR now says he should be paid 18 million instead of 4.5 million.

Do you see my point, about how WAR is flawed?

dougdirt
02-21-2011, 05:32 PM
I think ERA for a starting pitcher that had 180 IP is a fair measure.
Sure, it's somewhat dependent on the team's bullpen and defense, but it's the actual number of runs he was charged with. It's more solid than FIP and all these other theoretical measures.
Not really. Do you think Aaron Harang, throwing the exact same pitches to the exact same hitters, but with the 2010 Reds defense behind him doesn't perform quite a bit better than he did with the 2008 Reds defense behind him?



Here's another example. In 2009, with the Nats, Dunn OPSed 928, over 668 plate appearances, was only worth .9 WAR.. That means he's only worth 4.5 million? How does that make any sense? The 2008 version of Harang was worth more than twice as much? Then the following year, Dunn was moved to 1b, had lesser offensive numbers, but since he was moved to 1b, his WAR jumped to 3.6, despite losing .036 of OPS.. It's the same guy, yet WAR now says he should be paid 18 million instead of 4.5 million.

Do you see my point, about how WAR is flawed?
Defense, defense, defense! In left field, Adam Dunn was beyond atrocious even among other very bad defenders. At first base, he wasn't as bad, thus his value actually improved because he was helping his team more. Batting wise, he was worth roughly the same those two seasons. Defensively, he went from beyond terrible, to roughly average.

Sea Ray
02-21-2011, 05:43 PM
Triple slash line wise (considering defensively he is a little below average), what would he need to do to be worth that much money in your opinion?

I want to see at least a .900 OPS to be worth $14mill a year. I'd be willing to risk (and I do consider this a risky proposal) a three yr, $8-$14-$14 mill contract on Bautista but that'd be as nutty as I'd get. I'd no more give him a 5 yr deal like this than I would Ibanez or Burrell.

Boss-Hog
02-21-2011, 05:58 PM
Defense, defense, defense! In left field, Adam Dunn was beyond atrocious even among other very bad defenders. At first base, he wasn't as bad, thus his value actually improved because he was helping his team more. Batting wise, he was worth roughly the same those two seasons. Defensively, he went from beyond terrible, to roughly average.
You buy that moving from a season of horrible defense to below average defense the next season at a different position warrants quadrupling your salary (according to the dollar amount of a win, per WAR) when the hitting numbers got slightly worse from one season to the next? Respectfully, that makes no sense to me.

TheNext44
02-21-2011, 06:55 PM
You buy that moving from a season of horrible defense to below average defense the next season at a different position warrants quadrupling your salary (according to the dollar amount of a win, per WAR) when the hitting numbers got slightly worse from one season to the next? Respectfully, that makes no sense to me.

Normally, it wouldn't make much sense. But Dunn's fielding in 2009 was extraordinary.

He put up a -37 UZR. Close to 90% of outfielders had a a UZR in single digits, plur or minus. The next worse was Jermaine Dye who had a -21 UZR. No other starting outfielder was above -20.

So Dunn was nearly twice as bad as the next worst guy, who was in class by himself already.

He wasn't just horrible, he was unworldly horrible. It would be somewhat equivalent to a pitcher walking 200 batters in a season. Really no matter what he did with the rest of the batters he faced, he would have a hard time being above average in terms of overall production.

kaldaniels
02-21-2011, 07:01 PM
You buy that moving from a season of horrible defense to below average defense the next season at a different position warrants quadrupling your salary (according to the dollar amount of a win, per WAR) when the hitting numbers got slightly worse from one season to the next? Respectfully, that makes no sense to me.

At glance it doesn't, but maybe this helps. WAR doesn't provide your expected value. It provides what happened. Dunn's LF defense really hurt the team, hence he did not provide nearly the production as he did in 2010. I don't go exactly by the book with those WAR salary figures, but I can absolutely see how moving Dunn to first reaped huge dividends in terms of how he produced.

kaldaniels
02-21-2011, 07:02 PM
Elephant in the room. What caused Bautista to suddenly hit 54 home runs last season?

savafan
02-21-2011, 07:04 PM
Elephant in the room. What caused Bautista to suddenly hit 54 home runs last season?

Bingo, that's the 64 million dollar question.

dougdirt
02-21-2011, 07:12 PM
Elephant in the room. What caused Bautista to suddenly hit 54 home runs last season?

A drastic change in approach. His timing is much better, among other things. It actually started in late 2009, when he hit 10 HR's in September (after only 3 the rest of the season).

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/24/altered-swing-mechanics-key-to-jose-bautistas-home-run-binge/

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/bluejays/2010-09-16-jose-bautista_N.htm

jojo
02-21-2011, 08:43 PM
Do you see my point, about how WAR is flawed?

Not really.

Granted a flaw in WAR is that it only uses 1 estimate of defensive value and in 2008, UZR hated Dunn more than a germaphobe hates cockroaches, but why can't a guy's value fluctuate from year to year and why doesn't the position he plays influence his value?

jojo
02-21-2011, 08:47 PM
A drastic change in approach.

This.

Still Toronto is assuming risk by extending him for so long but as Doug pointed out, they aren't paying him like they think he'll ever be 2010 good again. They weren't fooled by a "Brady Anderson effect". They clearly think he's a different player due to a tangible change in approach that will result in repeatable differences.

I guess we'll see if they're right. They may be wrong but it wont be because they were Steve Phillips-like when coming to the conclusion that they did.

Brutus
02-21-2011, 09:01 PM
Bingo, that's the 64 million dollar question.

Man... this is poetic. I would like to say "no pun intended," but this is perfect placement :)

Brutus
02-21-2011, 09:03 PM
A drastic change in approach. His timing is much better, among other things. It actually started in late 2009, when he hit 10 HR's in September (after only 3 the rest of the season).

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/24/altered-swing-mechanics-key-to-jose-bautistas-home-run-binge/

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/bluejays/2010-09-16-jose-bautista_N.htm

I can accept that as a possibility, though I don't personally believe that to be the case.

I will say, though, if this kind of jump can happen at 30 years old, then we should never again utter the phrase "true talent" on the basis of past results. As this, exception or not, shows that it's not always indicative of talent but getting the most out of it.

Boss-Hog
02-21-2011, 09:26 PM
Thanks for the responses, guys. It's still hard for me to imagine that even if Dunn was a historically bad left fielder in 2009, it's not like he became a gold glove caliber fielder the next year at first, either. Even if you account that moving from horrendous to below average is a drastic difference in terms of his defense, quadrupling his WAR based on that measurement and accounting for slight downgrade at the plate seems too much, IMO.


Normally, it wouldn't make much sense. But Dunn's fielding in 2009 was extraordinary.

He put up a -37 UZR. Close to 90% of outfielders had a a UZR in single digits, plur or minus. The next worse was Jermaine Dye who had a -21 UZR. No other starting outfielder was above -20.

So Dunn was nearly twice as bad as the next worst guy, who was in class by himself already.

He wasn't just horrible, he was unworldly horrible. It would be somewhat equivalent to a pitcher walking 200 batters in a season. Really no matter what he did with the rest of the batters he faced, he would have a hard time being above average in terms of overall production.


At glance it doesn't, but maybe this helps. WAR doesn't provide your expected value. It provides what happened. Dunn's LF defense really hurt the team, hence he did not provide nearly the production as he did in 2010. I don't go exactly by the book with those WAR salary figures, but I can absolutely see how moving Dunn to first reaped huge dividends in terms of how he produced.

Sea Ray
02-21-2011, 11:33 PM
This.

Still Toronto is assuming risk by extending him for so long but as Doug pointed out, they aren't paying him like they think he'll ever be 2010 good again.

No but they're paying him to perform better than any of his other years in the major leagues...

jojo
02-22-2011, 12:02 AM
No but they're paying him to perform better than any of his other years in the major leagues...

Who expects him to perform like his pre 2009?

savafan
02-22-2011, 12:35 AM
Who expects him to perform like his pre 2009?

Well, you'd have to say the track record shows that his career prior to 2009 shows more consistency than the last 12 months of baseball.

dougdirt
02-22-2011, 02:26 AM
Well, you'd have to say the track record shows that his career prior to 2009 shows more consistency than the last 12 months of baseball.

But what do you actually expect him to do? The question isn't what did he do before 2010, its what do you think he is going to do in 2011-2016?

edabbs44
02-22-2011, 10:22 AM
The Jays have a unique perspective into Bautista's performance. They obviously think his production was legit. I doubt that they would have done this if they suspected PED usage, especially at this time.

Huge bargain if he is close to what he was last year.

Sea Ray
02-22-2011, 10:23 AM
Who expects him to perform like his pre 2009?

Actually it's pre 2010. In 2010 he had an OPS of .995. Prior to that his highest OPS ever was .757. So the question is do you expect him to perform like 2010 or like his other 6 seasons? This is a classic case of buying high.

Sea Ray
02-22-2011, 10:31 AM
But what do you actually expect him to do? The question isn't what did he do before 2010, its what do you think he is going to do in 2011-2016?

If you don't look at pre 2010 then you don't believe in the adage of "a player plays to his baseball card."

REDREAD
02-22-2011, 11:02 AM
Not really. Do you think Aaron Harang, throwing the exact same pitches to the exact same hitters, but with the 2010 Reds defense behind him doesn't perform quite a bit better than he did with the 2008 Reds defense behind him?


In the end, a starting pitchers job is to prevent runs from scoring.
Of course, a better defense helps. But the bottom line is that there's more to pitching than FIP or XFIP. FIP is a good tool, but it is not the end of all of analysis.. At some point, a pitcher has to be held accountable for the runs that actually score.. Over 180 IP, Harang was below average that year.



Defense, defense, defense! In left field, Adam Dunn was beyond atrocious even among other very bad defenders. At first base, he wasn't as bad, thus his value actually improved because he was helping his team more. Batting wise, he was worth roughly the same those two seasons. Defensively, he went from beyond terrible, to roughly average.

But this is the whole problem with using WAR to set the "fair salary" of players. Here's a better example.. Last year, Heisey had a WAR of .7
IIRC, around midseason, he had a WAR of around 1.. Anyhow, that means that in 2010, Heisey was more valuable in a part time role than Dunn was in 660+ plate appearances, while OPSing 923 (from memory, but you get the point)..

That just does not pass the smell test. Sure, Dunn is a bad fielder and should be penalized in value for that. Good defenders should be rewarded. If WAR wants to say that Dunn is worth 5 times more as a 1b than a LF, I am going to question that.. But, let's say that I accept that.. It's the same player, so you can't use WAR to determine a player's salary.. Dunn had a better offensive year when in 2009, yet his WAR went up approximately 4 fold just by changing positions. It's not Dunn's fault that the team put him in LF in 2009. So if WAR wants to penalize him, that's fine, but that means you can't correlate WAR to fair market salary. The system is flawed when the same player is given a range of between 4.5 million and 18 million, depending on the position he plays.

REDREAD
02-22-2011, 11:07 AM
Not really.

Granted a flaw in WAR is that it only uses 1 estimate of defensive value and in 2008, UZR hated Dunn more than a germaphobe hates cockroaches, but why can't a guy's value fluctuate from year to year and why doesn't the position he plays influence his value?

I'm saying you can't tie WAR to "fair market salary". It makes no sense.
I'm going to assume Dunn would've played 1b for the Nats in 2009 if they asked him. According to WAR, Dunn deserves a 14.5 million dollar paycut for agreeing to play LF, as the team requested him to.

No one is debating that Dunn's defense in LF is poor. But as I said in the other post, saying that Dunn in 2009 was worth about as much as Heisey was in 2010 is just absurd. Likewise, it's crazy to say that in 2008, Harang was worth over twice as much as Dunn was in 2009. IMO, WAR is flawed, and I am a believer in defense being important.

Quatitos
02-22-2011, 02:33 PM
I'm saying you can't tie WAR to "fair market salary". It makes no sense.
I'm going to assume Dunn would've played 1b for the Nats in 2009 if they asked him. According to WAR, Dunn deserves a 14.5 million dollar paycut for agreeing to play LF, as the team requested him to.

No one is debating that Dunn's defense in LF is poor. But as I said in the other post, saying that Dunn in 2009 was worth about as much as Heisey was in 2010 is just absurd. Likewise, it's crazy to say that in 2008, Harang was worth over twice as much as Dunn was in 2009. IMO, WAR is flawed, and I am a believer in defense being important.

For the record, Dunn played 540 innings at first and put up a -14.3 UZR, 505 innings in left and put up a -15.4 UZR, and 180 innings in right and put up a -7.4 UZR.

Dan
02-22-2011, 03:41 PM
It was a little different. Arroyo has been consistent for a while, not just one season that jumps off the page and whole bunch of other mediocre seasons.

Votto's contract was a raise in good faith that he'll remember he was treated right when he's heading for free agency in a short amount of time. Also, Votto is only 27 this year and is coming off an MVP season--possibly still building to his peak while Mr. Bautista is already older than that and has probably reached his peak.

Also keep in mind that Votto's numbers weren't entirely out of line with his career up to that point. It was like he made another step up in his abilities, not a 5-6 step jump like Bautista made.

TheNext44
02-22-2011, 03:56 PM
I feel like I'm in bizzaro land with this debate. Lol

It seems that a few of the more stat minded guys are presenting a scout based argument, that Bautista has changed his swing and his approach, which should translate into future production more similar to his 2010 numbers than his career numbers. On the other hand, a few of the more scout minded posters are presenting a stat based argument that Bautista is more likely in the future to produce numbers like his career numbers.

I just find it mildly amusing and a bit refreshing.

Brutus
02-22-2011, 04:07 PM
I feel like I'm in bizzaro land with this debate. Lol

It seems that a few of the more stat minded guys are presenting a scout based argument, that Bautista has changed his swing and his approach, which should translate into future production more similar to his 2010 numbers than his career numbers. On the other hand, a few of the more scout minded posters are presenting a stat based argument that Bautista is more likely in the future to produce numbers like his career numbers.

I just find it mildly amusing and a bit refreshing.

I was noticing that as well. Very surreal.

REDREAD
02-22-2011, 04:43 PM
For the record, Dunn played 540 innings at first and put up a -14.3 UZR, 505 innings in left and put up a -15.4 UZR, and 180 innings in right and put up a -7.4 UZR.

Do you mean in 2009? So I guess his defense at 1b killed his WAR that year too? Was just trying to figure out what you are trying to say.

Quatitos
02-22-2011, 05:10 PM
Do you mean in 2009? So I guess his defense at 1b killed his WAR that year too? Was just trying to figure out what you are trying to say.

Yes, sorry I forgot to list the year, I had to run and do something so I submitted it before posting everything I meant to say. And yes, I was trying to point out that Dunn did not gain that value from leaving LF for 1B in 2010, since he spent roughtly 2/5 of his time at 1B in 2009 and that dragged his value down that year as well. I guess my point is that the argument that Dunn gained all that value simply from moving to 1B is not really true since he did the same thing in 2009 and did not receive a similar bump.

I also wonder where people are getting their WAR and Salary/Dollars info from. On fangraphs Dunn in 2010 saw an increase of 3.25 times his 2009 WAR and a Dollars increase in 2010 of 2.85 times his 2009 Dollars value. Much closer to 3 times than 4, so the change is not as dramatic as some posters are making it out to be.

REDREAD
02-24-2011, 09:30 PM
Yes, sorry I forgot to list the year, I had to run and do something so I submitted it before posting everything I meant to say. And yes, I was trying to point out that Dunn did not gain that value from leaving LF for 1B in 2010, since he spent roughtly 2/5 of his time at 1B in 2009 and that dragged his value down that year as well. I guess my point is that the argument that Dunn gained all that value simply from moving to 1B is not really true since he did the same thing in 2009 and did not receive a similar bump.

I also wonder where people are getting their WAR and Salary/Dollars info from. On fangraphs Dunn in 2010 saw an increase of 3.25 times his 2009 WAR and a Dollars increase in 2010 of 2.85 times his 2009 Dollars value. Much closer to 3 times than 4, so the change is not as dramatic as some posters are making it out to be.


I am getting Dunn's WAR from here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

If he played roughly 1/2 his games at 1b in 2009, then I honestly don't understand how his WAR quadrupled, despite his OPS going down.
Would that mean if Dunn had played all his games in the OF in 2009, he'd have a negative WAR?

So Fangraphs says Dunn had a WAR of 1.2 instead of 0.9.. It's basically the same argument.. Fangraphs said he went from 1.2 to 3.9, despite declining offensive numbers, just because he played 1b more.

I guess the people that invented WAR are free to make it however they want, but IMO, this proves that WAR is a poor yardstick.

It's easy to pull out WAR inconsistencies by comparing two players.. The WAR numbers do not pass the sniff test.. I know that some people that love WAR will claim that the GMs are idiots since they overpay based on WAR, but I think it's more likely that WAR is flawed as a stat for determining $$ value of a player.

jojo
02-24-2011, 10:20 PM
I am getting Dunn's WAR from here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

If he played roughly 1/2 his games at 1b in 2009, then I honestly don't understand how his WAR quadrupled, despite his OPS going down.
Would that mean if Dunn had played all his games in the OF in 2009, he'd have a negative WAR?

So Fangraphs says Dunn had a WAR of 1.2 instead of 0.9.. It's basically the same argument.. Fangraphs said he went from 1.2 to 3.9, despite declining offensive numbers, just because he played 1b more.

I guess the people that invented WAR are free to make it however they want, but IMO, this proves that WAR is a poor yardstick.

His overall value didn't triple because he played more first base in 2010. It dramatically increased in 2010 because he played much better defensively in 2010 than he did in 2009. He's not an outfielder. Clearly the move to first base full time helped him. But he also played better first base in 2010 than he did in 2009.

This is not an example of why WAR is a poor yardstick.


It's easy to pull out WAR inconsistencies by comparing two players.. The WAR numbers do not pass the sniff test..

Yes they do.


I know that some people that love WAR will claim that the GMs are idiots since they overpay based on WAR, but I think it's more likely that WAR is flawed as a stat for determining $$ value of a player.

But what if WAR actually predicted a team's pythag record?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1969096&postcount=185

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1969882&postcount=369

Given such relationships it's seems entirely appropriate to tie WAR to payroll.

Quatitos
02-24-2011, 10:46 PM
I am getting Dunn's WAR from here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

If he played roughly 1/2 his games at 1b in 2009, then I honestly don't understand how his WAR quadrupled, despite his OPS going down.
Would that mean if Dunn had played all his games in the OF in 2009, he'd have a negative WAR?

So Fangraphs says Dunn had a WAR of 1.2 instead of 0.9.. It's basically the same argument.. Fangraphs said he went from 1.2 to 3.9, despite declining offensive numbers, just because he played 1b more.


That is not right at all? I don't think you are understanding the numbers involved at all. The difference in Adam Dunn's WAR does not come from playing 1B more. It comes solely from his UZR (or whatever defensive metric BR uses) increasing to -3.1 from -37.1. Dunn's positional adjustment was actually worse from playing at first base (2010: -10.9 vs 2009: -8.8) since first is penalized the most except for DH.

Lets get this fact straight, Dunn did not get magical points added to his WAR statistics from simply moving to 1B. In fact, by playing at 1B Dunn loses points from his WAR because the positional adjustment is -12.5 runs/600 PA as opposed to -7.5 runs/600 PA for LF. Dunn's WAR increased because in 2010 he did not have horrible defense at first base, as opposed to 2009 where he lost just about as many runs at first as he did from playing in the OF.

Maybe Dunn has finally found his defensive position and he can become and stay an average to slightly below average defender. Or it could always just be a lucky spike and his defensive stats will fall back down to their normal level next year. Well actually it will be hard to tell since he will probably spend a lot of time in the DH spot where he belongs from now on. Honestly your problem is more with UZR than WAR since all of the things you are complaining about stem from the UZR values Dunn put up.


I guess the people that invented WAR are free to make it however they want, but IMO, this proves that WAR is a poor yardstick.

It's easy to pull out WAR inconsistencies by comparing two players.. The WAR numbers do not pass the sniff test.. I know that some people that love WAR will claim that the GMs are idiots since they overpay based on WAR, but I think it's more likely that WAR is flawed as a stat for determining $$ value of a player.
Inconsistencies in stats happen all the times with any stat. Do you think that Willy Taveras is a .320/.367/.382 hitter? Well the slugging is believable, but neither the average or OBP are. He still pulled off that line for one season. Inconsistencies happen in all stats, so being able to find them does not make a stat flawed. I could probably find a better example of how all traditional stats have fluctuations like this but I just picked the first one off the top of my head and it was good enough.

You try and use Adam Dunn as an example that WAR is a bad estimate for how much a player should get paid, but when you look at what Dunn produced and what he has been paid, his salary is not too far from what WAR says he produces.

Looking at the Dollars stat given by fangraphs what WAR "predicts" he is worth is close to what he was actually paid.


Yearly Actual
2010 15.7 12
2009 5.5 8
2008 5 13
2007 12.8 10.5
2006 6.9 7.5
2005 11.4 4.6
2004 16.1 0.45
2003 4 0.4
2002 11.2 0.25


For his arbitration years Dunn was getting paid like he was a $11-12 million player and over the average of those years that is about what he was worth according to WAR ($11.8 per year from 2004-2007). The first major discrepancy is in 2008, and obviously the Reds did not want to keep Dunn around and got rid of him, so they felt like he was not worth the money he was getting paid. The Nationals signed him to a contract that was 2 year $10 million a year average, and they got just above that according to the average cost per WAR over those years.

I honestly don't see where, aside from 2008 where he got traded away, that Dunn's salary differed that much from what WAR said he was worth. Like most stats, WAR is not always best when viewed as a single year and looking at multiple years removes a lot of the noise that might happen from year to year.

I also personally do not view WAR as a tool to predict how much someone is worth, its mostly just useful as a rule of thumb to estimate it more so than an accurate tool. I see it as something along the lines of "Dunn underperformed his contract a bit in 2009 and outperformed it in 2010". I think that this explains it a bit better than I can: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-seven

I personally find that fangraphs WAR numbers fit more with what I see than baseball reference's do. I also like that it is easier to find an explanation of how fangraphs does their calculations (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/) so I have more insight into what is driving the numbers and when there is an anomaly or not.

Blitz Dorsey
02-25-2011, 01:03 AM
Bust-ista. (If you're into fantasy baseball, that is. Dude is getting taken in the 3rd round of 12-team leagues.... haha.)

Homer Bailey
02-25-2011, 02:36 AM
Lets get this fact straight, Dunn did not get magical points added to his WAR statistics from simply moving to 1B. In fact, by playing at 1B Dunn loses points from his WAR because the positional adjustment is -12.5 runs/600 PA as opposed to -7.5 runs/600 PA for LF. Dunn's WAR increased because in 2010 he did not have horrible defense at first base, as opposed to 2009 where he lost just about as many runs at first as he did from playing in the OF.



Do you have a link to these numbers? This interests me a lot, and never knew it was calculated that way.

jojo
02-25-2011, 02:40 AM
Do you have a link to these numbers? This interests me a lot, and never knew it was calculated that way.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/position-adjustments/

edabbs44
04-27-2011, 12:05 PM
ESPN.com featuring Jose Bautista today...


We know more about baseball than we could dissect in a thousand lifetimes. Every pitch is tracked, every ball in play analyzed, every number computerized. Every player is rated, projected and graded.

We know everything.

Except we don’t. Which brings us to the amazing Jose Bautista ... the most feared hitter in baseball. There, I said it. Yes, more feared than Albert Pujols or Joey Votto or Josh Hamilton.



Anyway, back to my bold statement: After going 1-for-3 with a double and two more walks in Toronto’s 10-3 victory over Texas on Tuesday, Bautista has an insane .362/.522/.783 (BA/OBP/SLG) line, including an MLB-leading eight home runs.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/9710/be-very-afraid-of-jose-bautista