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Kingspoint
03-08-2011, 02:34 PM
Baker continues to show his cluelessness as a Manager.

Kingspoint
03-08-2011, 02:35 PM
As one fan so aptly puts it over at cincinnati.com :

From commentor:

Say it ain't so...

First of all, if Rose was not a prototypical leadoff hitter, who was? Davey Lopes??? Rose hit >.300 FIFTEEN times in his career. He had an OB% >.380 twelve times. He never hit more than 10 HR's in a season after he turned 31. He'd normally get 10-20 SB in a season, but do you really want to steal a lot with THREE hall of famers plus George Foster hitting behind you? In addition, Morgan had a lifetime OB% of almost .400. Griffey Sr's OB was around .380 while he and Rose were teammates. That automatically puts Rose at second most of the time he singled or walked. Almost 25% of his hits were for extra bases and did not give him an opportunity to steal second. Maybe if you're successful at stealing 81% of the time like Joe Morgan it would be ok to run more, but it would have been foolish for Sparky to risk getting Rose thrown out any more than he did.

After Aug 8 in 2010 Bruce's slugging pct was almost .800. He had 15 HR's in the last two months despite missing two weeks to injury. Over that same time period Stubbs hit >.300 and had an OB% of almost .400. Long time announcer Marty Brennaman calls Stubbs "the fastest player I've ever seen in a Reds uniform outside of Deion Sanders". He's been successful on 40 of 50 SB attempts in his career. Joe Morgan is on the Reds payroll as a special advisor and I can't think of any better advice he could contribute than helping Stubbs put up those kind of numbers over the course of an entire season.

Brandon Phillips was on his way to being a .300AVG/.350OB% man in 2010 until his arm was hit by a pitch in late July. He's a good base stealer too. Also, Fred Lewis has a lifetime OB% >.350 against right handed pitching and he's been successful on >70% of his SB attempts. If he platooned with Gomes in LF he would get most of the action. The Reds are a small market team and there's no way they sign him if Walt Jocketty didn't think he would be a better leadoff option than moving Jay Bruce up there.

Bruce has never stolen more than 5 bases in a season and there's three options to consider before leading him off.

A final comment: They made a list of Reds leadoff failures in the past and I do not argue they've had some bad ones. Freel's OB was >.350 and he stole 150 bases (successful 75% of attempts) while with the Reds. It now looks like Hopper will be one of the unique players that retires with a lifetime batting average >.300. His career numbers are .316 AVG/.367 OB% in over 400 career plate appearances. He had some speed too. I know that stats sometimes don't tell the whole story, but I'll go on records as saying that even the worst .316 hitter would still be a pretty good option for leadoff. He only had 50 AB's after Baker arrived in Cincy and failed to make it back to the bigs since. Meanwhile the Reds suffered through two horrible seasons of leading off from Patterson and Taveras after they traded him.

R_Webb18
03-08-2011, 03:21 PM
Baker continues to show his cluelessness as a Manager.

maybe you should apply

DirtyBaker
03-08-2011, 03:53 PM
maybe you should apply

What an obnoxious reply. If you want to defend Dusty or Bruce leading off, do it.

defender
03-08-2011, 04:03 PM
Baker is judged on sabermetrics, but he is making his decisions based on people. If Baker bats Bruce leadoff, it is because he thinks Bruce will hit better there. Batting first lets him focus on getting on base, and not also worry about clutch hitting and slugging.

New York Red
03-09-2011, 12:03 AM
As one fan so aptly puts it over at cincinnati.com :

From commentor:

Say it ain't so...

First of all, if Rose was not a prototypical leadoff hitter, who was? Davey Lopes??? Rose hit >.300 FIFTEEN times in his career. He had an OB% >.380 twelve times. He never hit more than 10 HR's in a season after he turned 31. He'd normally get 10-20 SB in a season, but do you really want to steal a lot with THREE hall of famers plus George Foster hitting behind you? In addition, Morgan had a lifetime OB% of almost .400. Griffey Sr's OB was around .380 while he and Rose were teammates. That automatically puts Rose at second most of the time he singled or walked. Almost 25% of his hits were for extra bases and did not give him an opportunity to steal second. Maybe if you're successful at stealing 81% of the time like Joe Morgan it would be ok to run more, but it would have been foolish for Sparky to risk getting Rose thrown out any more than he did.

After Aug 8 in 2010 Bruce's slugging pct was almost .800. He had 15 HR's in the last two months despite missing two weeks to injury. Over that same time period Stubbs hit >.300 and had an OB% of almost .400. Long time announcer Marty Brennaman calls Stubbs "the fastest player I've ever seen in a Reds uniform outside of Deion Sanders". He's been successful on 40 of 50 SB attempts in his career. Joe Morgan is on the Reds payroll as a special advisor and I can't think of any better advice he could contribute than helping Stubbs put up those kind of numbers over the course of an entire season.

Brandon Phillips was on his way to being a .300AVG/.350OB% man in 2010 until his arm was hit by a pitch in late July. He's a good base stealer too. Also, Fred Lewis has a lifetime OB% >.350 against right handed pitching and he's been successful on >70% of his SB attempts. If he platooned with Gomes in LF he would get most of the action. The Reds are a small market team and there's no way they sign him if Walt Jocketty didn't think he would be a better leadoff option than moving Jay Bruce up there.

Bruce has never stolen more than 5 bases in a season and there's three options to consider before leading him off.

A final comment: They made a list of Reds leadoff failures in the past and I do not argue they've had some bad ones. Freel's OB was >.350 and he stole 150 bases (successful 75% of attempts) while with the Reds. It now looks like Hopper will be one of the unique players that retires with a lifetime batting average >.300. His career numbers are .316 AVG/.367 OB% in over 400 career plate appearances. He had some speed too. I know that stats sometimes don't tell the whole story, but I'll go on records as saying that even the worst .316 hitter would still be a pretty good option for leadoff. He only had 50 AB's after Baker arrived in Cincy and failed to make it back to the bigs since. Meanwhile the Reds suffered through two horrible seasons of leading off from Patterson and Taveras after they traded him.
Good stuff!

JeremiahHorsley
03-09-2011, 01:32 AM
Baker is judged on sabermetrics, but he is making his decisions based on people. If Baker bats Bruce leadoff, it is because he thinks Bruce will hit better there. Batting first lets him focus on getting on base, and not also worry about clutch hitting and slugging.

It's also just spring training, he's not saying Bruce is going to be a regular at leadoff. If this is some crazy idea, you might think Tony LaRussa batting a pitcher in the 8 hole is also crazy. But, that worked for Tony for a time. I have to agree here with you experimenting in the spring is no problem even tho I don't think Bruce has hit leadoff yet, I may stand corrected there tho. You make a very good point tho.

bounty37h
03-09-2011, 10:58 AM
What an obnoxious reply. If you want to defend Dusty or Bruce leading off, do it.

I dont think it was any more obnoxious then the constant Dusty bashing that takes place here either.

Hey Meat
03-09-2011, 12:49 PM
After that Cubs series this last summer when Bruce just tore it up I kept asking myself why Bruce isn't leading off on a regular basis? I know there are reasons as far as RBI and other things, but he sure looked good that series.

DirtyBaker
03-10-2011, 12:56 AM
I dont think it was any more obnoxious then the constant Dusty bashing that takes place here either.

Thats fair. I don't think it warrants bashing Dusty either to tell you the truth. I'd rather Bruce audition for leadoff in the spring then in the middle of the regular season. His OBP was tremendously better last year (.353) compared to years prior (.303, .314) and should improve with another year under his belt.

Kingspoint
03-10-2011, 01:54 AM
I dont think it was any more obnoxious then the constant Dusty bashing that takes place here either.

If the shoe fits....

Kingspoint
03-10-2011, 01:55 AM
Chris Heisey would be a better leadoff (than Bruce) and get Gomes out of the lineup completely, and DFA Lewis.

Though, the only logical leadoff hitter is Stubbs.

Heisey is hitting .333 so far this Spring, plays outstanding Defense, and has some speed.

There shouldn't even be a question of who the every day Left Fielder should be nor who the leadoff hitter should be.

Dusty is just disturbingly fascinated with not having his #4 and #5 hitters both bat from the left side, though history has proven that it's completely irrelevant as long as they are both good hitters.

Once again, Dusty has no idea what the heck he is doing, and we'll win again, in spite of Dusty Baker.

Looking forward to a great season no matter who Dusty again tries to mistakenly bat leadoff for the 4th (or is it the 5th?) season in a row.

Kingspoint
03-10-2011, 01:56 AM
Thats fair. I don't think it warrants bashing Dusty either to tell you the truth. I'd rather Bruce audition for leadoff in the spring then in the middle of the regular season. His OBP was tremendously better last year (.353) compared to years prior (.303, .314) and should improve with another year under his belt.

Bruce is a guy who should be driving in runs, not setting the table. It's nonsense to think otherwise.

It'd be like having Cordero pitch the 1st Inning of a baseball game followed by Chapman pitching the 2nd inning. Then bring in a Starter to pitch the 3rd through 8th innings. It just doesn't make any sense.

DirtyBaker
03-10-2011, 03:00 AM
Bruce should be driving in runs, but who is the best leadoff hitter if Phillips misses an extended period of time?

Stubbs may need more time to mature as a hitter. I'm hoping this is the year but he may need more time.
Gomes is out of the question.
I'm not crazy about Janish or Renteria with that role either.
As for Heisey, his OBP last year was lower than Stubbs, but he's still not a bad option.
I see Lewis as a very good candidate (.348 career OBP). Only problem is, Gomes is going to be the everyday starter in left.

texasdave
03-10-2011, 12:11 PM
Bruce should be driving in runs, but who is the best leadoff hitter if Phillips misses an extended period of time?

Reds' leadoff hitters were horrible last year. They compiled (according to ESPN) a .306 OBP. This ranked 14th in NL. Yet still they managed to lead the league in runs scored. If Votto and Rolen are getting on-base at a healthy clip don't you want someone behind them driving them in?

I agree that a high OBP out of your leadoff batter would be nice. But moving Bruce to leadoff seems to me to be a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Kingspoint
03-11-2011, 01:29 AM
But moving Bruce to leadoff seems to me to be a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Couldn't have been said better. Ruin two spots in the order in an attempt to fix one.

DirtyBaker
03-11-2011, 03:41 PM
nm

mattwellsey
03-11-2011, 04:17 PM
Instead of trying to assemble some sort of gigantic mathematical equation that solves the Reds biggest offensive dilemma, it is more important to assign the leadoff position to the player that allows the lineup to assemble in its most productive form. There are four guys on this team that have the capability to leadoff. Let's see how the lineup falls below them.

To see the rest (it is a long piece), go to: http://tapthoseshinguards.blogspot.com/

Kingspoint
03-12-2011, 04:34 PM
Instead of trying to assemble some sort of gigantic mathematical equation that solves the Reds biggest offensive dilemma, it is more important to assign the leadoff position to the player that allows the lineup to assemble in its most productive form. There are four guys on this team that have the capability to leadoff. Let's see how the lineup falls below them.

To see the rest (it is a long piece), go to: http://tapthoseshinguards.blogspot.com/

Nice article, except he's wrong when he says that Brandon Phillips is due for a big year, and stating it's because it's a contract year for him. It's not a contract year for Brandon. Brandon will be paid $12 Million by the REDS if they keep him or $12M by any other team that they trade him to. They could release him and pay him $1M, but Walt isn't that stupid. He's not going to let Brandon walk for nothing (well, not nothing, as he'd get 1st Round compensation pick for him), when he can trade him and get a good return of talent.

Kingspoint
03-12-2011, 04:37 PM
Instead of trying to assemble some sort of gigantic mathematical equation that solves the Reds biggest offensive dilemma, it is more important to assign the leadoff position to the player that allows the lineup to assemble in its most productive form. There are four guys on this team that have the capability to leadoff. Let's see how the lineup falls below them.

To see the rest (it is a long piece), go to: http://tapthoseshinguards.blogspot.com/

Cons: It (Bruce leading off) takes away a lot of the power from traditional positions in the lineup. I think Jay Bruce really found a home in the five-spot last year. His success is so critical to this team's final result this year because team's will start taking Joey Votto more seriously.