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cinreds21
03-16-2011, 10:29 PM
Just thought I'd let you guys know that from what I've heard (as in just a text,) that Brad Boxberger will stay as a reliever this season for Double-A Carolina.

cinreds21
03-16-2011, 11:50 PM
And by the way, it wasn't a player saying "I think" it was someone else from them saying that's what was going to happen.

dougdirt
03-17-2011, 12:21 AM
I don't like the idea. At least not yet. The Reds have a ton of bullpen options for 2011 still. Let the guy start and see if he can make it as a starter. If its July and you don't think he can, then move him back to the pen and you don't really set back the franchise in terms of needing his arm to help the big league club. He was clearly much better as a starter last season, and while he did need to improve his stamina, I still think its a tad early to make such a move given where the franchise is at in terms of its pitching.

camisadelgolf
03-17-2011, 12:33 AM
Here's my theory about Reds closers for the next few years:
Francisco Cordero -> Nick Masset -> Brad Boxberger

cinreds21
03-17-2011, 12:58 AM
Yea, I wasn't too sure about the move last year because he did really well for Lynchburg. (4-6, 3.19, 70/20 K/BB ratio in 62 innings in 14 games, 13 starts) but I guess they feel that the guys they have now in the big leagues is going to be there for a while.

Benihana
03-17-2011, 09:15 AM
Cue the "We should have drafted Scheppers"

Slyder
03-20-2011, 10:17 PM
Cue the "We should have drafted Scheppers"

We should have drafted Linec... oh wait thats another guy.

Blitz Dorsey
03-21-2011, 01:41 AM
I don't like the idea. At least not yet. The Reds have a ton of bullpen options for 2011 still. Let the guy start and see if he can make it as a starter. If its July and you don't think he can, then move him back to the pen and you don't really set back the franchise in terms of needing his arm to help the big league club. He was clearly much better as a starter last season, and while he did need to improve his stamina, I still think its a tad early to make such a move given where the franchise is at in terms of its pitching.

I agree. Boxberger should be a starter at this point in his career. He can always transition to the pen if need be.

RedLegsToday
05-25-2011, 09:24 AM
Brad Boxberger, through May 24, 2011

21.2 IP, 1.25 ERA, 11h, 9bb, 36k, gets more groundballs than flyballs, opposition is hitting .151 against him for the year.

Nice turn around from his time in AA last year.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2011, 09:31 AM
21.2 IP, 1.25 ERA, 11h, 9bb, 36k, gets more groundballs than flyballs, opposition is hitting .151 against him for the year.

Nice turn around from his time in AA last year.

Very much so. I haven't been a believer, but it's hard to be anything but optimistic about his chances as a reliever now. Slight question with the walks, but it's too early to tell if that's significant. I guess he's had a problem staying strong over the course of a season. Hopefully working exclusively out of the pen will resolve that.

Benihana
05-25-2011, 10:30 AM
Now that it's pretty clear his future is going to remain in the 'pen, do most see him as a future closer?

It's hard to get really excited about a guy who's ceiling is a setup guy, and the Reds have hit some bumps in the road lately with those types (Joseph, Roenicke, Watson). I'll be upfront and say that I wasn't enamored with the BBox pick when it happened, but it's nice to see him having some success in AA.

It will be interesting to see who has a better career, Boxberger or Zach Stewart...

The DARK
05-25-2011, 01:20 PM
Now that it's pretty clear his future is going to remain in the 'pen, do most see him as a future closer?

It's hard to get really excited about a guy who's ceiling is a setup guy, and the Reds have hit some bumps in the road lately with those types (Joseph, Roenicke, Watson). I'll be upfront and say that I wasn't enamored with the BBox pick when it happened, but it's nice to see him having some success in AA.

It will be interesting to see who has a better career, Boxberger or Zach Stewart...

Does Joseph not have closer stuff? I know he's struggling, but I was under the impression that his fastball is good and his slider is top of the line. He looks like more of a closer to me than Box (who seems like more of an electric setup guy, like Masset).

I've always been wary of converted starters, though. Sure, maybe their stuff profiles better that way, but it carries a lot of risk and diminishes their value; clubs with a dearth of starting prospects shouldn't be playing that game, especially they are succeeding at starting.

cinreds21
05-25-2011, 02:20 PM
He's done both for Carolina this year. (B-Box) but I think setup might be more his forte.

Benihana
05-25-2011, 02:26 PM
Does Joseph not have closer stuff? I know he's struggling, but I was under the impression that his fastball is good and his slider is top of the line. He looks like more of a closer to me than Box (who seems like more of an electric setup guy, like Masset).

I've always been wary of converted starters, though. Sure, maybe their stuff profiles better that way, but it carries a lot of risk and diminishes their value; clubs with a dearth of starting prospects shouldn't be playing that game, especially they are succeeding at starting.


He's done both for Carolina this year. (B-Box) but I think setup might be more his forte.

Unfortunately as I expected. Hard to get all jazzed up about a 24 year old setup man in AA, especially as a former first round (sandwich) pick. Hopefully he can become the next Logan Ondrusek.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2011, 02:39 PM
Unfortunately as I expected. Hard to get all jazzed up about a 24 year old setup man in AA, especially as a former first round (sandwich) pick. Hopefully he can become the next Logan Ondrusek.

Go back and check out the history of success of sandwich picks. Coming up with a solid setup man at that point in the draft is a win.

Benihana
05-25-2011, 02:43 PM
Go back and check out the history of success of sandwich picks. Coming up with a solid setup man at that point in the draft is a win.

Right, which is his ceiling/best-case scenario, which is why I'm not all that jazzed.

Nice to see his success this year. Still say we should have drafted someone with at least a bit more upside. Also why I'm not in favor of drafting a reliever in the first two rounds unless you think they can be an absolutely dominant closer. There's just not enough margin for error.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2011, 02:55 PM
Right, which is his ceiling/best-case scenario, which is why I'm not all that jazzed.

Nice to see his success this year. Still say we should have drafted someone with at least a bit more upside. Also why I'm not in favor of drafting a reliever in the first two rounds unless you think they can be an absolutely dominant closer. There's just not enough margin for error.

I understand not getting excited about certain types of draft picks. But once guys get into the system and start performing, it's a different thing altogether. You cannot expect many players from a single draft to turn into big leaguers, so when any of them starts to shine in the high minors, it's something to get enthused about, IMO.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 03:06 PM
Unfortunately as I expected. Hard to get all jazzed up about a 24 year old setup man in AA, especially as a former first round (sandwich) pick. Hopefully he can become the next Logan Ondrusek.

Boxberger is 22 and turns 23 on Friday, slightly ahead of where Daniel Bard was in his career at this stage with better numbers.

I can get a little jazzed up right now. Still a ways to go, but AA is where many of the frauds start to get exposed.

Benihana
05-25-2011, 03:14 PM
Boxberger is 22 and turns 23 on Friday, slightly ahead of where Daniel Bard was in his career at this stage with better numbers.

I can get a little jazzed up right now. Still a ways to go, but AA is where many of the frauds start to get exposed.

Fair enough. I too like to see Reds minor leaguers having success.

camisadelgolf
05-25-2011, 04:29 PM
If Boxberger displays enough control, he has the stuff to be an effective closer imho.

Scrap Irony
05-25-2011, 04:32 PM
Right, which is his ceiling/best-case scenario, which is why I'm not all that jazzed.

Nice to see his success this year. Still say we should have drafted someone with at least a bit more upside. Also why I'm not in favor of drafting a reliever in the first two rounds unless you think they can be an absolutely dominant closer. There's just not enough margin for error.

No.

His ceiling/ best-case scenario is as a TOR starter. (He still has that "talent".) However, his likely area is between closer and middle reliever, and he profiles best (at this point) as set-up guy, a la Massett/ Ondrusek.

A nice draftee if he makes it to that level (though not one I would have grabbed).

Benihana
05-25-2011, 04:34 PM
No.

His ceiling/ best-case scenario is as a TOR starter.

Disagree. There is a no-case scenario where Boxberger would ever be a TOR starter- not even the day he was drafted.

His ceiling as a starter (which he wasn't for most of college) was as a back of the rotation guy. And seeing as how his numbers have been atrocious as a starter in the minors, I think that possibility has since been dismissed (hence the original post of this thread.)

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 04:42 PM
Disagree. There is a no-case scenario where Boxberger would ever be a TOR starter- not even the day he was drafted.

His ceiling as a starter (which he wasn't for most of college) was as a back of the rotation guy. And seeing as how his numbers have been atrocious as a starter in the minors, I think that possibility has since been dismissed (hence the original post of this thread.)

His numbers as a starter in the minors weren't anywhere near atrocious. They were actually pretty darn good.

camisadelgolf
05-25-2011, 04:47 PM
His numbers as a starter in the minors weren't anywhere near atrocious. They were actually pretty darn good.
True. His only notable struggles came as a reliever last year. At that point, he just looked tired to me.

Benihana
05-25-2011, 05:06 PM
Sorry, I got mixed up- I knew he had a terrible 2nd half, and thought for some reason that was when he was starting (it was the other way around).

Either way, clearly most people (including those that matter) believe his future is as a reliever, which led to my question of whether or not he could be closer material. In general, I personally don't get overly excited about relief prospects who don't project as closers. Clearly most people tend to feel the same way, as people were pretty underwhelmed when Ben Badler from BA forecasted last week that Zach Stewart's future appeared to be middle relief.

I like that Boxberger is doing well now and would like to continue to see him do well (I put him back on my prospect radar earlier this month). I'm just disappointed that a guy who we drafted in the first (sandwich) round less than two years ago now appears destined for middle relief/setup duty while cautioning that the last few Reds "top prospects" to follow the similar "reliever but not closer" profile did not turn out so well.

Hillsdale87
05-25-2011, 05:10 PM
Disagree. There is a no-case scenario where Boxberger would ever be a TOR starter- not even the day he was drafted.

His ceiling as a starter (which he wasn't for most of college) was as a back of the rotation guy. And seeing as how his numbers have been atrocious as a starter in the minors, I think that possibility has since been dismissed (hence the original post of this thread.)

In 13 starts in A+ he had a 3.19 ERA with 70 Ks in 62 IP. Pretty solid numbers. What was the rationale to moving him out of that role? I may be remembering wrong, but I thought at the time it was to keep his innings down. If that was the case, why did they decide to keep him in the bullpen instead of continuing as a starter. Obviously he would seem to have more value as a starting pitcher than as an 8th inning guy

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 05:10 PM
Sorry, I got mixed up- I knew he had a terrible 2nd half, and thought for some reason that was when he was starting (it was the other way around).

Either way, clearly most people (including those that matter) believe his future is as a reliever, which led to my question of whether or not he could be closer material. In general, I personally don't get overly excited about relief prospects who don't project as closers. Clearly most people tend to feel the same way, as people were pretty underwhelmed when Ben Badler from BA forecasted last week that Zach Stewart's future appeared to be middle relief.

His numbers this year would lead me to believe that he has closer potential.

Benihana
05-25-2011, 05:13 PM
His numbers this year would lead me to believe that he has closer potential.

That's why I asked the question, and it seemed the answer from most was that he would not be a closer.

dougdirt
05-25-2011, 05:49 PM
Does Joseph not have closer stuff? I know he's struggling, but I was under the impression that his fastball is good and his slider is top of the line. He looks like more of a closer to me than Box (who seems like more of an electric setup guy, like Masset).

I've always been wary of converted starters, though. Sure, maybe their stuff profiles better that way, but it carries a lot of risk and diminishes their value; clubs with a dearth of starting prospects shouldn't be playing that game, especially they are succeeding at starting.

Joseph does not have closer stuff. Low 90's fastball isn't going to cut it as a closer in most cases. Boxberger on the other hand has closer stuff. He has a fastball that has gotten up to 98 MPH in the past and his breaking ball can be quite good when it is on. He needs to continue to show good control (he struggled with control in April, been better in May), but in terms of pure stuff, Boxberger can be a closer.

muddie
05-25-2011, 06:04 PM
Joseph does not have closer stuff. Low 90's fastball isn't going to cut it as a closer in most cases. Boxberger on the other hand has closer stuff. He has a fastball that has gotten up to 98 MPH in the past and his breaking ball can be quite good when it is on. He needs to continue to show good control (he struggled with control in April, been better in May), but in terms of pure stuff, Boxberger can be a closer.

Agreed. Donnie Joseph is a big question mark right now. His ERA is above 10. His confidence has to be shot right now. The best I've seen him do on the clock this year, and I know they are unreliable, is 91. This kid has hit a wall at AA.

Boxberger and Chritiani are the only reliable arms out of the pen in Carolina. Right now, Boxberger is exactly what this team needs in the ninth inning. If this is what works for him, stay with it.

fearofpopvol1
05-28-2011, 02:16 AM
Right, which is his ceiling/best-case scenario, which is why I'm not all that jazzed.

Nice to see his success this year. Still say we should have drafted someone with at least a bit more upside. Also why I'm not in favor of drafting a reliever in the first two rounds unless you think they can be an absolutely dominant closer. There's just not enough margin for error.

I pretty much agree with this. I would have personally loved to have seen him continue starting to see what he could do. But maybe the org just didn't see him in that role. At this point, hopefully he can contribute at The Show. As long as he is good at his job, whether he relieves or is a closer, I think it will still turn out to be a solid pick.