PDA

View Full Version : LF of the future



mth123
03-26-2011, 09:34 AM
With Sappelt's coming out party, attempts to get Alonso and Francisco time in LF, Todd Frazier's conversion, a potential late blooming from a failed prospect in Jeremy Hermida and Chris Heisey looking like a possibility down the line, the Reds' OF situation could get pretty crowded as soon as later this year. I have to think that Bruce and Stubbs are going to man a couple of those OF spots for a while leaving just one spot for these guys when they arrive. Guys like Frazier and to a lesser extent Francisco could probably carve out a supersub role, but the Reds will need to decide to move one or two of these guys soon to keep them from going stale and losing their value. Down the road guys like Y-Rod, Duran or Lamar might enter the picture, but for the next four or five years it would seem that the stopgaps could be moved aside and the role filled fairly well from within.

Who is the LF of the future?

mth123
03-26-2011, 09:42 AM
David Sappelt is flashing images of Kirby Puckett in my mind. Chris Heisey seems like a Cody Ross grinder. Frazier and Francisco seem to be suited for bench play at a lot of positions and a transitioning at 3B when Rolen calls it quits, but IMO, if Yonder Alonso can play defense to at least the Gomes standard, he's the man for the job.

cinreds21
03-26-2011, 12:15 PM
I'm not sure who it'll be, but I think this season will determine what direction they go.

dougdirt
03-26-2011, 01:59 PM
I would put my money in the Sappelt or Alonso basket. Not sure which one it is yet, but as cinreds21 says.... I think this season will determine where they go.

cinreds21
03-26-2011, 02:00 PM
For some reason, I still think Frazier is the answer, rather it be left or third. Big bounce-back candidate for me.

AtomicDumpling
03-26-2011, 02:33 PM
Yonder Alonso. I will roll with the best bat and live with the subpar fielding. Stubbs and Bruce cover so much ground that they can shade a bit towards left to help compensate for Alonso's lack of range. Alonso is also likely the one with the most trade value on this list. I would be very tempted to see what we could get for him and possibly pull the trigger on a deal if the return is good enough.

I think Juan Francisco is the future at third base rather than left field. Frazier will be the utility guy and Sappelt & Heisey will be top rate extra outfielders worthy of starting for most MLB teams.

redsof72
03-26-2011, 04:47 PM
Alonso will never improve enough defensively to play left field. They know they need to try to make him a decent first baseman rather than wasting time trying to make him something he is not. Frazier is still the best bet on this list with Heisey a close second.

Mario-Rijo
03-26-2011, 06:18 PM
Well Dusty is basically in charge of this as Walt will likely defer to him so what is it that Dusty likes most? He loves aggressiveness, contact hitters, speed on the basepaths and defense. Heisey or Sappelt is what it comes down to and if Heisey gets himself straightened out at the plate I give him an edge with his power being a little better as well as his arm but until that time comes (I haven't seen it yet) I'll go with Sappelt.

I see the immediate future (after '11) like this at the moment...

Sappelt LF
Cozart 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Mes C
Janish SS

Hanigan C
Heisey OF
Francisco COF/CIF
Valaika IF
Frazier UT (until Rolen is done and then to 3rd)

Yonder Alonso being the odd man out...

mth123
03-26-2011, 06:28 PM
Well Dusty is basically in charge of this as Walt will likely defer to him so what is it that Dusty likes most? He loves aggressiveness, contact hitters, speed on the basepaths and defense. Heisey or Sappelt is what it comes down to and if Heisey gets himself straightened out at the plate I give him an edge with his power being a little better as well as his arm but until that time comes (I haven't seen it yet) I'll go with Sappelt.

I see the immediate future (after '11) like this at the moment...

Sappelt LF
Cozart 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Mes C
Janish SS

Hanigan C
Heisey OF
Francisco COF/CIF
Valaika IF
Frazier UT (until Rolen is done and then to 3rd)

If that is Dusty's MO, why Gomes over Lewis?

StubbsFan#6
03-26-2011, 06:28 PM
IF next year we still are in desperate need of a leadoff hitter and are strapped for cash then I would go with Sappelt. That being said if Yonder is ripping AAA apart then there shouldn't be a disscusion. If Dusty insists on throwing Gomes out there then defense shouldn't be part of the issue

Mario-Rijo
03-26-2011, 06:33 PM
If that is Dusty's MO, why Gomes over Lewis?

Why do you think, also Dustys M.O. proven to him is proven. If (a big if at this point) and when Lewis proves himself to Dusty as being that guy I described he will take Gomes' job.

Mario-Rijo
03-26-2011, 06:38 PM
IF next year we still are in desperate need of a leadoff hitter and are strapped for cash then I would go with Sappelt. That being said if Yonder is ripping AAA apart then there shouldn't be a disscusion. If Dusty insists on throwing Gomes out there then defense shouldn't be part of the issue

Well in that case better get ready for an interesting summer because I believe Yonder is indeed ready to lay waste to AAA pitching this year, just not sure that means he is ready for the show if he hasn't shortened that swing up a bit. Both he and Heisey need to get their hands into hitting position before the pitch is out of the pitchers hand, not during or just after (way too slow to react).

corkedbat
03-26-2011, 08:39 PM
I think Sappelt could be a place-holder ubtil YRod is ready. Maybe longer if the were to deal Stubbs

corkedbat
03-26-2011, 08:39 PM
I think Sappelt could be a place-holder ubtil YRod is ready. Maybe longer if the were to deal Stubbs

corkedbat
03-26-2011, 08:41 PM
I think Sappelt could be a place-holder until YRod is ready. Maybe longer if they were to deal Stubbs

camisadelgolf
03-26-2011, 10:31 PM
Good job on the triple post. That's difficult to pull off.

GOYA
03-26-2011, 10:57 PM
I went with Heisey. I think he's got a jump in performance in him yet. And I already know the power is there. I'd just like to see him get more ABs. I like Sappelt a lot but he won't have the power of a modern LF. I might rate him over Stubbs in CF though.

RedsManRick
03-27-2011, 01:35 PM
I love what I've seen with Sappelt and I think both he and Heisey could be starters. But I don't think our long term LF is current in the picture.

camisadelgolf
03-27-2011, 01:41 PM
I love what I've seen with Sappelt and I think both he and Heisey could be starters. But I don't think our long term LF is current in the picture.
What do you think of Todd Frazier? I'd like to see him as Rolen's heir apparent, too, but defensively, he's better in left field than at third base if you ask me. And further down the line, what do you think of Juan Duran?

RedsManRick
03-27-2011, 02:09 PM
What do you think of Todd Frazier? I'd like to see him as Rolen's heir apparent, too, but defensively, he's better in left field than at third base if you ask me. And further down the line, what do you think of Juan Duran?

I'm not convinced that Frazier's bat is all that great and I don't know much about his OF defense. Looks like more like a utility type guy to me, a Mark DeRosa type.

For guys in the lower minors, I think it's silly to project any of them on to the major league roster. It's like projecting a 4th grader to get in to Harvard. Sure, you can identify the smart ones, but there are a bunch of hurdles of various kinds between here and there.

camisadelgolf
03-27-2011, 02:57 PM
This is Mark DeRosa in his prime: .291/.368/.453/.820
That's not exactly a superstar, but I'd be happy with that in left field if it's combined with good defense, which Frazier provides.

Vottomatic
03-27-2011, 03:10 PM
I think Francisco should be planted at third base at Louisville, told to work on his defense and taking pitches. He could be the heir apparent to Rolen if he improved those aspects of his game. I don't see him in LF at all.

Alonso's only ticket to the bigs is to hit. If he tears it up at Louisville, they will find a position for him and live with his defensive struggles. Personally, I'm not that high on the guy. I'm not crazy about defensive liability's.

Frazier? Hmmm. Had a hot season, got his name mentioned as a future major leaguer and hasn't shown much since. I'm in wait and see mode with him.

Sappelt flew through the minors. Always a good sign. How long has this team needed a leadoff hitter? Send him down and tell him to work on his OBP and stealing bases. If he does well, bring him up eventually this season and give him the job to lose. We don't have anybody else suited primarily for that role.

Heisey is my guy. But I feel the Reds are keeping him on the back burner for some weird reason.

Mesoraco and Cozart's spring training really impressed me. Triple A is going to be REALLY interesting this year.

Probably need to start following double and triple A starting pitching, with the way things are going with the major league club.

GOYA
03-28-2011, 12:30 AM
Triple A is going to be REALLY interesting this year.

Yep. And we said that last year. The Bats proceeded to start the season by falling on their faces. But we did see all that talent come together for a hell of a stretch run for the division championship.

This season I'm very much not confident of pitching at Louisville. But offensively, the Bats should be very strong

lollipopcurve
03-28-2011, 08:13 AM
This season I'm very much not confident of pitching at Louisville. But offensively, the Bats should be very strong

Yeah. I'm hoping Scottie Carroll continues to ride his solid spring training showing into the regular season. Could be a sleeper out of the rotation.

bucksfan2
03-28-2011, 10:22 AM
I am not sold on Francisco as a major league player. I don't think he ever becomes consistent enough at the plate to warrant an every day job. At this point I would use him as a trading piece.

I tend to think that the current LF vacancy is filled from the outside. Sappelt has the eye of the organization and fans because of a hot spring but Im not ready to hitch my wagon to him as the incumbent. At some point this FO needs to make a splash and get someone to fill that position.

Mario-Rijo
03-28-2011, 11:40 AM
I went with Heisey. I think he's got a jump in performance in him yet. And I already know the power is there. I'd just like to see him get more ABs. I like Sappelt a lot but he won't have the power of a modern LF. I might rate him over Stubbs in CF though.

I like Heisey and hope he straightens himself out because he brings alot to the table.

But this bolded part always gets my ire up, not to be disrespectful to you but whomever started this whole idea of a player having to stack up to some lame standard to play a position is ludicrous. It's a team sport and this team has plenty of pop without LF, and that's even with the SS & C positions being a bit light. What it lacks as a unit is (as always) usable on base percentage. Sappelt has a really good chance to provide that right now and in the near future (where it'll be every bit as important if not moreso). The Reds had a NL leading 188 HR's last season and I believe the only guys on the team who got in the neighborhood of what they are capable of is Votto, Rolen & Gomes. I don't see Votto falling off much, Rolen could (say by 8, a reasonable #), Gomes (could by 12 if he was just a backup). So let's say 5 for Votto, that's 25. I think Stubbs, Bruce and Phillips could make that up and then anything Sapp brings is gravy.

edabbs44
03-28-2011, 11:49 AM
What it lacks as a unit is (as always) usable on base percentage. Sappelt has a really good chance to provide that right now and in the near future (where it'll be every bit as important if not moreso). The Reds had a NL leading 188 HR's last season and I believe the only guys on the team who got in the neighborhood of what they are capable of is Votto, Rolen & Gomes. I don't see Votto falling off much, Rolen could (say by 8, a reasonable #), Gomes (could by 12 if he was just a backup). So let's say 5 for Votto, that's 25. I think Stubbs, Bruce and Phillips could make that up and then anything Sapp brings is gravy.

The Reds were 5th in MLB in OBP last year, 2nd in the NL by one point. Why do you think they lack OBP "as a unit"?

lollipopcurve
03-28-2011, 11:51 AM
But this bolded part always gets my ire up, not to be disrespectful to you but whomever started this whole idea of a player having to stack up to some lame standard to play a position is ludicrous. It's a team sport and this team has plenty of pop without LF, and that's even with the SS & C positions being a bit light. What it lacks as a unit is (as always) usable on base percentage. Sappelt has a really good chance to provide that right now and in the near future (where it'll be every bit as important if not moreso). The Reds had a NL leading 188 HR's last season and I believe the only guys on the team who got in the neighborhood of what they are capable of is Votto, Rolen & Gomes. I don't see Votto falling off much, Rolen could (say by 8, a reasonable #), Gomes (could by 12 if he was just a backup). So let's say 5 for Votto, that's 25. I think Stubbs, Bruce and Phillips could make that up and then anything Sapp brings is gravy.

Excellent post. The offense as a whole is what matters, not where it comes from.

GOYA
03-28-2011, 12:28 PM
But this bolded part always gets my ire up, not to be disrespectful to you but whomever started this whole idea of a player having to stack up to some lame standard to play a position is ludicrous.

Believe me, I agree with you. But it doesn't seem like the Reds do.

AtomicDumpling
03-28-2011, 02:10 PM
Excellent post. The offense as a whole is what matters, not where it comes from.

True, but we are discussing who should play left field. It doesn't make sense to say that since our other bats are good we don't want or need good production from left field. We shouldn't accept mediocre production in left field just because the rest of the offense is good -- it could always be better.

GOYA
03-28-2011, 02:46 PM
I think the point is you don't have to be a power bat to be productive.

dougdirt
03-28-2011, 02:49 PM
Honest question.... outside of the steals and the throwing arm, does much separate Dave Sappelts skillset from that of Carl Crawford? I am not sure the differences are that big.

edabbs44
03-29-2011, 03:34 PM
Honest question.... outside of the steals and the throwing arm, does much separate Dave Sappelts skillset from that of Carl Crawford? I am not sure the differences are that big.

Really?

Tadasimha
03-29-2011, 03:46 PM
If Sappelt continues to perform at the highest level in AAA, it's his job in left. Even if Stubbs does not continue to improve with the bat, his defensive range in center is so large that he's going to be the center fielder for some time to come. Unless there's an injury to either of these guys, Heisey is going to be the 4th outfielder.

Francisco or Frazier look like the immediate future after this season at 3rd. Frazier looks better in the outfield than Francisco ever will - Juan needs to focus on 3rd and pay attention to what Rolen tells him this season.

Puffy
03-29-2011, 04:37 PM
Good job on the triple post. That's difficult to pull off.

Maybe he just really believes what he is saying and wants to re-re-reiterate it

dougdirt
03-29-2011, 07:56 PM
Really?

That doesn't answer the question at all. Tell me what the differences are.

GOYA
03-29-2011, 08:19 PM
Honest question.... outside of the steals and the throwing arm, does much separate Dave Sappelts skillset from that of Carl Crawford? I am not sure the differences are that big.

Well, Crawford hits for more power, plays better defense and reached the MLB at a younger age. Sappelt can learn to play the outfield better but I don't see him gaining much more power. At least not around 20 HR/season power. Sappelt might hit for better average though but we won't know until he faces a steady stream of big league pitchers.

edabbs44
03-29-2011, 08:27 PM
That doesn't answer the question at all. Tell me what the differences are.

Firstly, you made the claim so I'd be interested why you would compare a guy with somewhat limited success in professional baseball to a guy who just got a nine figure contract from the Red Sox.

But here's my take. I admit that I haven't scouted them and my take is mostly from what one can see using what is publicly accessible. And I know you qualified your statement by talking about "skillset". But to me there are some key differences in each player:

1) You didn't mention defense, and Crawford is known as one of the best fielders in baseball. Maybe Sappelt is a good defender (unsure as to his prowess), but is he known as potentially the best in the game?

2) Crawford was a first rd talent. Sappelt was a middle rounder. Obviously there were some skill differences at that time for each. If not, I would assume that Sappelt wouldn't have lasted as long as he did.

3) When Sappelt was in his 22 year old year, he was struggling in A ball. When Crawford was 22, he made the all-star team in the majors.

Interested to hear your take.

Mario-Rijo
03-29-2011, 08:48 PM
The Reds were 5th in MLB in OBP last year, 2nd in the NL by one point. Why do you think they lack OBP "as a unit"?

It was IMO BA driven largely and I believe we were as a team a bit BABIP lucky.

Mario-Rijo
03-29-2011, 08:50 PM
True, but we are discussing who should play left field. It doesn't make sense to say that since our other bats are good we don't want or need good production from left field. We shouldn't accept mediocre production in left field just because the rest of the offense is good -- it could always be better.

Production is right I agree, power doesn't necessarily equate to production.

dougdirt
03-29-2011, 08:55 PM
Firstly, you made the claim so I'd be interested why you would compare a guy with somewhat limited success in professional baseball to a guy who just got a nine figure contract from the Red Sox.

But here's my take. I admit that I haven't scouted them and my take is mostly from what one can see using what is publicly accessible. And I know you qualified your statement by talking about "skillset". But to me there are some key differences in each player:

1) You didn't mention defense, and Crawford is known as one of the best fielders in baseball. Maybe Sappelt is a good defender (unsure as to his prowess), but is he known as potentially the best in the game?

2) Crawford was a first rd talent. Sappelt was a middle rounder. Obviously there were some skill differences at that time for each. If not, I would assume that Sappelt wouldn't have lasted as long as he did.

3) When Sappelt was in his 22 year old year, he was struggling in A ball. When Crawford was 22, he made the all-star team in the majors.

Interested to hear your take.

1. Sappelt has plus range in center field. That translates incredibly well to left field. So range wise, I imagine they are very similar.

2. Kyle McColloch was first round talent too, but he isn't anymore. Likewise, is Chris Heisey a 17th round talent now compared to when he was drafted? Draft status years ago (for both) means very little to the conversation to their current skills.

3. Guys progress at different ages. Crawford was clearly the better player at younger ages, but that doesn't mean he will continue to be. Sappelt at 22 was nothing close to the same player as Sappelt at 23.

Lets look at their skills.

Defense - Range wise, I would honestly say they are close to even. Arm wise, Sappelt isn't on the same level.

Base running - Sappelt isn't on the same level.

Speed - Sappelt is a notch below, but he is an above average speed guy.

Hitting ability (average) - Crawford is a career .296 hitter, peaking at .315. That is pretty strong. Is Sappelt a .300 guy? Is he close to it? I think he could be.

Hitting ability (power) - Crawford is a career .444 slugger and has never hit 20 HR's in a season, and averages just 14 per 162 games. I think Sappelt has 15-20 HR power, so I don't think there is a distinct advantage here.

Plate discipline - Crawford has a career 2.62 K/BB rate in the majors. In the minors it was just over 3.00. Sappelt is at 1.96 in the minors. He of course started in the minors at an older age, but I see his discipline being at least on par, if not better than Crawford in the majors.

Contact rate - Crawford has a MLB career K rate of 14.3%, with a minor league one of 16.6%. Sappelt has a minor league K rate of 13.4% (K/PA). I don't see a distinct advantage here.

So is Crawford better? Yeah, he probably is. But is he marginally better across the board? I am not so sure.

dougdirt
03-29-2011, 08:57 PM
Well, Crawford hits for more power, plays better defense and reached the MLB at a younger age. Sappelt can learn to play the outfield better but I don't see him gaining much more power. At least not around 20 HR/season power. Sappelt might hit for better average though but we won't know until he faces a steady stream of big league pitchers.

Does Crawford really hit for more power? He has a career .444 SLG and has never hit 20 HR's in a season despite 650+ PA in 6 seasons in the majors. Crawford averages 14 HR's per 162 games.

GOYA
03-29-2011, 09:09 PM
Crawford hit 19 last year. I just don't see Sappelt ever hitting 19.

GOYA
03-29-2011, 09:16 PM
Defense - Range wise, I would honestly say they are close to even. Arm wise, Sappelt isn't on the same level.

There's more to defense than range and arm. There's choice of routes. If a ball is going to land laterally or in front of him and it's just a sprint to get to it, Sappelt looks pretty good. If it's over his head then I'll take Crawford all day.

dougdirt
03-29-2011, 09:17 PM
Crawford hit 19 last year. I just don't see Sappelt ever hitting 19.

I could in his best year. But I do think he is more likely to be a 15 HR guy, but that is what Crawford has been for his career too.

edabbs44
03-29-2011, 09:32 PM
1. Sappelt has plus range in center field. That translates incredibly well to left field. So range wise, I imagine they are very similar.

2. Kyle McColloch was first round talent too, but he isn't anymore. Likewise, is Chris Heisey a 17th round talent now compared to when he was drafted? Draft status years ago (for both) means very little to the conversation to their current skills.

3. Guys progress at different ages. Crawford was clearly the better player at younger ages, but that doesn't mean he will continue to be. Sappelt at 22 was nothing close to the same player as Sappelt at 23.

Lets look at their skills.

Defense - Range wise, I would honestly say they are close to even. Arm wise, Sappelt isn't on the same level.

Base running - Sappelt isn't on the same level.

Speed - Sappelt is a notch below, but he is an above average speed guy.

Hitting ability (average) - Crawford is a career .296 hitter, peaking at .315. That is pretty strong. Is Sappelt a .300 guy? Is he close to it? I think he could be.

Hitting ability (power) - Crawford is a career .444 slugger and has never hit 20 HR's in a season, and averages just 14 per 162 games. I think Sappelt has 15-20 HR power, so I don't think there is a distinct advantage here.

Plate discipline - Crawford has a career 2.62 K/BB rate in the majors. In the minors it was just over 3.00. Sappelt is at 1.96 in the minors. He of course started in the minors at an older age, but I see his discipline being at least on par, if not better than Crawford in the majors.

Contact rate - Crawford has a MLB career K rate of 14.3%, with a minor league one of 16.6%. Sappelt has a minor league K rate of 13.4% (K/PA). I don't see a distinct advantage here.

So is Crawford better? Yeah, he probably is. But is he marginally better across the board? I am not so sure.

The difference is that you are saying that Crawford is x, and Sappelt could be close to x. And a lot of your comparisons are Sappelt in the minors vs Crawford in the majors.

I think this is an extremely aggressive comparison. IMO, way too aggressive. Sappelt wasn't on the radar last year at this time. Had a breakout year and still didn't even make the BA Top 10 Reds prospect list and came in at #10 on the RZ list. Blows up in ST and now his skillset compares to one of the best players in the game? And the guy hasn't even had 125 PAs above AA?

Wow.

dougdirt
03-29-2011, 09:43 PM
The difference is that you are saying that Crawford is x, and Sappelt could be close to x. And a lot of your comparisons are Sappelt in the minors vs Crawford in the majors.

I think this is an extremely aggressive comparison. IMO, way too aggressive. Sappelt wasn't on the radar last year at this time. Had a breakout year and still didn't even make the BA Top 10 Reds prospect list and came in at #10 on the RZ list. Blows up in ST and now his skillset compares to one of the best players in the game? And the guy hasn't even had 125 PAs above AA?

Wow.

Quit looking at what he did and look at what he does. What are his skills right now? I don't care what they were before 2010. Heck, I don't even care much what they were then either. What are they today? Here is what we know, from scouts, from this spring. His hit tool is a 60, which is above avearge. His defense is above average (even with his blips in ST).

Those were from scouts who watched him this spring. So really, now we are just looking at his power/plate discipline as the "sticking" points.

Now I will give you that I don't think Sappelts full skills are on par across the board, but I think mostly they are pretty close.

edabbs44
03-29-2011, 09:50 PM
Quit looking at what he did and look at what he does. What are his skills right now? I don't care what they were before 2010. Heck, I don't even care much what they were then either. What are they today? Here is what we know, from scouts, from this spring. His hit tool is a 60, which is above avearge. His defense is above average (even with his blips in ST).

Those were from scouts who watched him this spring. So really, now we are just looking at his power/plate discipline as the "sticking" points.

Now I will give you that I don't think Sappelts full skills are on par across the board, but I think mostly they are pretty close.

Scouts who saw a guy get 50 or so PAs in ST are putting his skills on par with Crawford? I noticed OBM make this post earlier today, but it's funny how we see this when defending the Reds pitching yet don't put it in play when talking up Heisey and Sappelt.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2338420&postcount=20

Has Sappelt even faced any top pitchers in ST?

dougdirt
03-30-2011, 01:52 AM
Scouts who saw a guy get 50 or so PAs in ST are putting his skills on par with Crawford? I noticed OBM make this post earlier today, but it's funny how we see this when defending the Reds pitching yet don't put it in play when talking up Heisey and Sappelt.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2338420&postcount=20

Has Sappelt even faced any top pitchers in ST?

Scouts are saying his hit tool is above average and so is his range. You seem to believe that there is absolutely no projection involved in baseball. Either you have done it or you can't until you have. It doesn't quite work that way. Sappelt doesn't need to have faced top pitchers in ST for scouts to grade his hit tool. And sure, he probably has faced some top pitchers in ST. He played quite a bit.

GOYA
03-30-2011, 03:16 AM
Quit looking at what he did and look at what he does. What are his skills right now? I don't care what they were before 2010.

Then why do you care what Carl Crawford did before 2010?

You want to use Crawford's season average of HRs hit but not his 19 from 2010. Sappelt hit 10 HRs in 2010 and want to project that he adds 50% to that. Against much better pitchers? Sappelt got 9 of his 10 against AA pitching.

edabbs44
03-30-2011, 07:36 AM
Scouts are saying his hit tool is above average and so is his range. You seem to believe that there is absolutely no projection involved in baseball. Either you have done it or you can't until you have. It doesn't quite work that way. Sappelt doesn't need to have faced top pitchers in ST for scouts to grade his hit tool. And sure, he probably has faced some top pitchers in ST. He played quite a bit.

Of course there is projection in baseball. CC is one great example of someone who fit that projection mold.

Benihana
03-30-2011, 08:15 AM
To me, Alonso is the only player with the stick to start in LF on a playoff team. Unfortunately, he also has the most questions surrounding his ability to play the position defensively. I see Heisey and Sappelt as 4th OFs, and Francisco and Frazier as super subs.

In summary, Id put Alonso ahead of anyone on this list as the LF of the next five years, but I would not be surprised if it ended up being someone not on this list (or the current 40-man for that matter).

lollipopcurve
03-30-2011, 09:19 AM
Sappelt. Team needs a leadoff hitter, there's going to be plenty of power elsewhere in the lineup, and he's good defensively (which matters to Jocketty). Not just the best fit, but there's a good chance he's the best all-around player, too.

dougdirt
03-30-2011, 09:32 AM
Then why do you care what Carl Crawford did before 2010?

You want to use Crawford's season average of HRs hit but not his 19 from 2010. Sappelt hit 10 HRs in 2010 and want to project that he adds 50% to that. Against much better pitchers? Sappelt got 9 of his 10 against AA pitching.

Crawford's top HR season isn't much different than his season average. I don't really think its a big deal here.

As for Sappelts power, between age and another 100 PA (that he will get by playing in the majors longer season), I think he can add a handful of HR's in the majors.

Benihana
03-30-2011, 10:05 AM
Sappelt. Team needs a leadoff hitter, there's going to be plenty of power elsewhere in the lineup, and he's good defensively (which matters to Jocketty). Not just the best fit, but there's a good chance he's the best all-around player, too.

I agree with the premise and hope that you're right. I'm just not sure if I believe he has the bat to stick in LF. I think getting the best bats in your lineup are more important than slotting someone in because of the batting order. Not saying the LF has to hit 30 HR, but I do question whether Sappelt's defensive value is high enough (in LF) to keep his bat in the everyday lineup for a playoff team. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm seeing flashes of Chris Heisey in the summer of '09.

Mario-Rijo
03-30-2011, 10:16 AM
Crawford hit 19 last year. I just don't see Sappelt ever hitting 19.

I can see it, Sapp hit what 10 last season and in 2 home parks where his swing wasn't conducive to getting the loft necessary. You should know better than most that the guys who hit alot of HR's in Louisville (and Carolina, with those towers of wood all around the OF) are guys who have more upper cut based swings than Sappelt has. In his prime in GABP (not to mention this division), yeah I can definitely see it. And in the big parks he is gonna eat up those gaps. As long as he maintains some semblance of selectivity/discipline and keeps his current mechanics I like him to be an absolutely pivotal player and he really only can fill one spot for the next 4+ years or so, LF.

Don't think for a moment that after what he has done with his game he is gonna be denied for much longer and then once he makes the team good luck getting him out of the lineup. I wish I had known sooner the kid had so much determination and ability to adapt I would have been on the bandwagon then. Perhaps he has a weakness that S/T didn't uncover but I'm now willing to bet that won't stand in his way if and when we come to that bridge. Guys like he and Cozart & Heisey really make me further appreciate the drafting and development the Reds are doing these days, I need to take a step back and give them more benefit of the doubt. Like Todd Frazier (a guy I have always championed) they keep drafting guys with high work ethics and competitive spirit who turn good talent into phenomenal skills.