So, how you feeling about the 2011 Reds Season now?

[Vottomatic]

Thought I'd start a thread about it, since we're all thinking about it. Considering all the upheaval in the Reds starting rotation and Chapman getting blown up yesterday.

It's a long season, but the beginning of this one doesn't look to be too bright.

I see a rough couple of months to start the season, with alot of complaining and jumping off the bandwagon from Reds fans. Then I look for the pitching to settle down or be answered and the Reds to make their move.

We shall see.

[will5979]

Don't know yet, the team is very unpredictable. Lets see what happens this Spring, then evaluate, but I would rather come out the gate smoking.

[Kingspoint]

The Cardinals lost Wainwright for the season, but the REDS lost just as much, if not more with Bronson's mono (recovery time more likely 3 months taking it all the way into July), Bailey and Cueto's beginning the season on the DL, Volquez, Leake and nearly every other pitcher being mostly ineffective.

The REDS have been brought down to the rest of the pack and it's no longer their division to lose as it was one month ago. It's now the Brewer's division to lose with the REDS, Cardinals, and more than likely one surprise team sneaking in to challenge the Brewers.

It kind of puts the REDS in a better position, as they won't have the target on their back all season now. Every game they'll have to struggle and fight to win. It should keep them hungry and allow them to improve as the season moves along each month.

I fully expect to see a completely different REDS team every month. The team we see in April won't be similar to the one we see in May, and the same goes for June, July, August and September. This will be Baker's most difficult season, yet. He'll really have at the top of his game as a Manager. If he wins the Division this year, he really will have earned it. Last year everything sort of fell into place and Dusty was just along for the ride. It should make for a very entertaining season as 88 wins might take the Division. The REDS would have won it last year with 88 victories. Watching the growth of the team should be exciting for everyone.

And, since 88 wins means 74 losses, the 74 losses ought to be plenty to allow all of the "Chicken Littles" around here to scream every week that the sky is falling. There's laughable entertainment in and of itself.

I'll do another golf thread, and when I thought before the pitching mess that par for the season would be tougher than it was from last season, I still think that way, but that it will be more difficult to reach par. A month ago, I had thought that shooting under par this season would be a no-brainer. Last season, par was 81-81 (4-5 for each of the first nine holes and 5-4 for each of the last nine holes). This season, par will be 90-72 (5 Wins and 4 Losses for every nine holes). That's about 2 wins more than what I think this team will likely finish with because of all of the problems with pitching we're going into the season with, but needing those extra 2 wins to make par will be enough of a carrot to reach for that, should we finish the season "Par-of-better", then we should at least finish in a tie or win our division. I can't picture any of the other teams finishing more than 18 games above .500.

"Play Ball!"

[PedroBourbon]

The Cardinals lost Cartwright for the season,!"

hilarious!!!!

[Kingspoint]

hilarious!!!!

Oops!...I'll correct that. Been watching too much "Bonanza". I've got it on The Western Channel right now while I'm typing this.

Adam Cartwright, Adam Wainwright...Carpenter starts with "Car..." I morphed some names together. Not the first time I've done that. Not the best at multi-tasking.

[PedroBourbon]

Oops!...I'll correct that. Been watching too much "Bonanza". I've got it on The Western Channel right now while I'm typing this.

Adam Cartwright, Adam Wainwright...Carpenter starts with "Car..." I morphed some names together. Not the first time I've done that. Not the best at multi-tasking.

Thought maybe it was too much Southpark

[texasdave]

I'd feel better if they started Heisey and left him alone. I know he struggled at the end of last season, but how many rookies come up and just play well right from the start without any bumps in the road? I'd venture to guess very few.

[knoonan991]

I thought we'd at least get into the regular season before this started. :rolleyes:

I feel great about this season. The Reds schedule is pretty light in April, allowing the pitchers time to recover.

We have plenty of depth at AAA to make moves if necessary. No need to be on the ledge yet. Remember, this is a winning ball club.

[Kingspoint]

Remember, this is a winning ball club.

I thought their record was 0-0?

[knoonan991]

I thought their record was 0-0?

They won the division last year. ;)

Am I wrong about the schedule or depth though, since that was the support for why I'm feeling positive?

[CelticFC]

Aren't some of the other clubs in the NL Central beat up as well?

[bshall2105]

I'm not sure how this is the Brewers division to lose. Maybe Dusty is going to sell the team on that, but Milwaukee wasn't that much of a threat last year. I know they upgraded their rotation and the Reds' seems to have gotten much worse, but right now, In order to be the champ you have to beat the champ. The Reds should still be the favorite.

[The DARK]

We're really not in all that much trouble, even with these pitching injuries. As of right now, we've got our rotation consisting of

Volquez
Arroyo (injury risk perhaps, but still in play)
Wood
Leake
Lecure
...and Maloney as a backup.

We're not desperately scraping the dregs for starters. Willis will be stretched out, just in case. Perhaps Chapman will as well (which could be a good thing in the long run). Bailey and Cueto don't have major injuries that will put them out more than 4 starts. Even if a complication develops, Leake will remain in the rotation, which isn't so bad at all. Here's to depth! Meanwhile the Brewers have lost their #1 starter for several games and the Cards have lost theirs for the entire season, meaning that they will have to start someone far less potent than Lecure, Leake, and Maloney. Here's to depth!


In addition, no position players have taken anything more than a minor hit yet (knock on wood). Other than Gomes (who is improving) and Rolen (who has little to prove in spring training and many able replacements waiting in AAA), the entire squad looks to be primed for the season. AAA is loaded with potential trade pieces and midseason callups.

[Roush's socks]

Since the Reds have Maloney and Lecure their rotation problems aren't that bad. Maloney is ready for the bigs and he had some success last year. The Reds had 8 options for the starting rotation not counting Chapman. So even without Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey to start the season they have plenty of depth. I wouldn't be surprised if Maloney pitches well enough to stick. It depends on how serious Cueto and Bailey's issues are.

The Reds are still in a great position. They had the best offense in the NL last year with everyone returning. They have AAA players at nearly every position who can step in and play.
1B- Alonso
2B- Valaika
ss- Cozart
3B-Francisco
C- Mesoraco
OF- Sappelt
SP- Leake, Maloney, Lecure

That gives them a great chance to compete. Also, the Reds defense should be one of the best again this year, maybe better than last year if Janish plays a lot. That will help their pitching.

[Vottomatic]

Since the Reds have Maloney and Lecure their rotation problems aren't that bad. Maloney is ready for the bigs and he had some success last year. The Reds had 8 options for the starting rotation not counting Chapman. So even without Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey to start the season they have plenty of depth. I wouldn't be surprised if Maloney pitches well enough to stick. It depends on how serious Cueto and Bailey's issues are.

The Reds are still in a great position. They had the best offense in the NL last year with everyone returning. They have AAA players at nearly every position who can step in and play.
1B- Alonso
2B- Valaika
ss- Cozart
3B-Francisco
C- Mesoraco
OF- Sappelt
SP- Leake, Maloney, Lecure

That gives them a great chance to compete. Also, the Reds defense should be one of the best again this year, maybe better than last year if Janish plays a lot. That will help their pitching.

Good post. But I'm still nervous about the outset. I know it's a long, long season and alot can happen.

But I think the first month is going to be a rocky road unless the offense just carries this team.

[Krawhitham]

We're really not in all that much trouble, even with these pitching injuries. As of right now, we've got our rotation consisting of

Volquez
Arroyo (injury risk perhaps, but still in play)
Wood
Leake
Lecure
...and Maloney as a backup.

Volquez & Leake have been nothing but pinatas in spring training
Arroyo may be one too now thanks to the mono.

Coming out the spring training we have one solid pitcher Wood. Volquez will look good for one game, ok for 2 games and like s**t for 2 more. Only 1 out of 5 starts is he on target.

Once the league had faced leake more than once or when the his film started making the rounds he got beat like a red headed step child, and that has continued this spring

Lecure was never any good.

If this was football we would be screwed, but it is 162 games. Cueto & Homer will be back. With luck Arroyo will be 100% in a couple months.

This team has the hitting to carry the pitching for a month or so. To start the season they will have to out slug teams for a while because that starting rotation is junk

[texasdave]

Maloney should be in the rotation instead of LeCure. And if Willis ever gets a start heaven help us. The bats better be en fuego to start the season.

[Roush's socks]

Maloney should be in the rotation instead of LeCure. And if Willis ever gets a start heaven help us. The bats better be en fuego to start the season.

Agree. Maloney has always been ahead of LeCure IMO. They are both qualified to pitch in the majors. Pitching is always a ??? in the MLB even with the best teams. Even the Yankees who have all the money in the world don't have 5 starters who are locks, so why would any other team?

[Hey Meat]

What is the possibility of a last minute signing of someone who has been released or a trade of one of our prospects to shore up this situation?

[OGB]

The Cardinals lost Wainwright for the season, but the REDS lost just as much, if not more with Bronson's mono (recovery time more likely 3 months taking it all the way into July), Bailey and Cueto's beginning the season on the DL, Volquez, Leake and nearly every other pitcher being mostly ineffective.


Symptoms of mono typically last 2 to 4 weeks.
Volquez and Leake being ineffective is unfortunate, but I don't know how you chalk that up to something the Reds have "lost."
The Brewers will have Greinke, Latroy Hawkins, and Manny Para on the DL to start the season, and Corey Hart is also likely to miss time at the beginning of the year.
The Cardinals lost one of the 5 best SP in the National League for the season.
37 of the Reds first 46 games are against teams with losing records in 2010.

They're in as good of shape as anyone as far as I'm concerned. If Cueto or Bailey go down for the year, that's a different story.

[Tadasimha]

Symptoms of mono typically last 2 to 4 weeks.
Volquez and Leake being ineffective is unfortunate, but I don't know how you chalk that up to something the Reds have "lost."
The Brewers will have Greinke, Latroy Hawkins, and Manny Para on the DL to start the season, and Corey Hart is also likely to miss time at the beginning of the year.
The Cardinals lost one of the 5 best SP in the National League for the season.
37 of the Reds first 46 games are against teams with losing records in 2010.

They're in as good of shape as anyone as far as I'm concerned. If Cueto or Bailey go down for the year, that's a different story.

The performance Mike Leake had yesterday has boosted my optimisim for the rotation. He went out and had a solid performance against a good offenseive club and looked like he had solved his control issues.

[DaytonFlyer]

The Brewers look like the team to beat? Because of their great additions to the pinata-esque bullpen from last year? What's that? They only added 41 year old Takashi Saito to the bullpen?

Their bullpen is still LOLbad, and Greinke won't be able to pitch complete games every time once he comes back in late April. Marcum and Gallardo should be solid, but I still fail to see how they are suddenly the presumed favorites just because we have a couple of starting pitcher health problems.

I am not saying we will definitively win the division, but I still have to think we are the favorites.

[Kingspoint]

With Zach Greinke now out until at least May, I no longer see us chasing Milwaukee.