Gomes leads the league in walks ....

[Tony Cloninger]

As of this morning....April the 4th of 2011. I took a photo of it with my camera.
I guess when they say that the world will end in late 2012....this would be the 1st sign of it?


Bases on balls
NAME TEAM BB
Gomes Cincinnati 5
Morrison Florida 4
Belt San Francisco 4
Heyward Atlanta 3
Rasmus St. Louis 3
Coghlan Florida 3
Ludwick San Diego 3
Hudson San Diego 3
Ibanez Phidelphia 3
Pena Chicago 3

[RBA]

No Brewers in the top 10, that's good for Reds Pitching
2 Padres in top 10, bad for Cardinals pitching
1 Cub on list, bad for Pittsburgh pitching
1 Phillie on list, bad for Astros
No Pirates, good for Cubs.

[Benihana]

Where does Hanigan rank in OPS? Gotta be near the top.

[Tom Servo]

YouTube - Requiem for a Dream - Clint Mansell (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSY4Yi2ypno)

[Tony Cloninger]

Where does Hanigan rank in OPS? Gotta be near the top.

He is tied for 2nd with several players for RBI....but only Stubbs shows up as a monster ...as he is showing in runs scored and Slugging at 1.000.

It's over at USA Today stats if you want to check them out and save for prosperity.

[medford]

so he's on pace for like 270 walks? That's gotta be a record or something, who's going to start the tracking thread :)

[lollipopcurve]

He's done a nice job of laying off the breaking pitch away so far. I have a feeling that being able to run more may help Gomes take more walks. If he shows he can hurt other teams on the bases now and then, he might get more pitches to hit. First order of business, of course, is show he won't consistently chase balls off the plate.

[NDRed]

This is the 6 weeks of production that justify Gomes starting the rest of the year.

[bellhead]

The biggest hole in Gomes swing last year was the breakin ball down and out. I think I heard myself say it's like he has never seen that pitch before. Pitchers in the 2nd half of the year set him up for it at least once a game. It got to be a joke. If he wants to keep his job then he needs to lay off of it.

[WebScorpion]

This is the 6 weeks of production that justify Gomes starting the rest of the year.
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-laughing017.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

[_Sir_Charles_]

Another nice stat, the Reds bats are leading the league in OPS. A nice, tidy 1.053....as a TEAM. :O)

[_Sir_Charles_]

Speaking of Gomes....the MLB network has started a new show that comes on around 4 or 5 pm called "Intentional Talk" with Chris Rose and Kevin Millar. Anyway, today is their second show and their guest is going to be Gomes. Yesterday's was pretty funny with the Nick Swisher interview. I'm kinda looking forward to it. They were joking about whether they could get Gomes to do the interview without his shirt on (so they could see the tattoos). Kinda hoping THAT doesn't happen though.

[edabbs44]

Jonny now with 7 BBs in 3.33 games. More than he had in 4 of the 6 months last year.

Weird stuff.

[westofyou]

Gomes has 2 more walks than the whole Astro team.

[edabbs44]

Jonny has 7 walks in 17 PAs this season. He has 31 in his career in September, in 421 PAs.

[Chip R]

Are they hard or soft walks?

[CTA513]

Are they hard or soft walks?

:thumbup:

[RedsManRick]

Are they hard or soft walks?

Well, he's not exactly fighting off a bunch of pitches, but he's also not swing at stuff off the plate. His current approach is a good example of not looking for walks but not being afraid to take them either.

[kaldaniels]

Nice job by Jonny so far. Let the early 2011 scouting reports on him say that he is taking a bunch of pitches. Then, let the pitchers who read said reports try to get ahead of him with a first pitch fastball down Broadway. Which of course, would then be deposited over the outfield wall. Sounds like a plan.

But once again, nice approach so far.

[jojo]

Nice job by Jonny so far. Let the early 2011 scouting reports on him say that he is taking a bunch of pitches. Then, let the pitchers who read said reports try to get ahead of him with a first pitch fastball down Broadway. Which of course, would then be deposited over the outfield wall. Sounds like a plan.

But once again, nice approach so far.

I think pitchers are afraid of his defensive reputation. They'll figure out he doesn't play defense for them after the second round of scouting reports get around.

[757690]

I think pitchers are afraid of his defensive reputation. They'll figure out he doesn't play defense for them after the second round of scouting reports get around.

:laugh:

[757690]

In 1984, Alfredo Griffin walked 4 times all season. He then walked 5 times in the first 15 games of 1985. I always liked that stat for some reason.

[Ron Madden]

Are they hard or soft walks?

:bowrofl::bowrofl::bowrofl:

[Degenerate39]

After watching two Reds games my girlfriend says: "Johnny Gomes isn't a very good hitter, is he?"

[PuffyPig]

In 1984, Alfredo Griffin walked 4 times all season. He then walked 5 times in the first 15 games of 1985. I always liked that stat for some reason.

He ended up walking 20 times that season, around his career average.

His 4 in 1984 was the abberation of sorts.

[RedsManRick]

Add another walk in his first PA today.

What do people think? Are we seeing a new approach from Jonny or just some nice randomness? Subjectively, he certainly seems to be laying off pitches that he had offered at in the past. With his power, increased discipline could go an awfully long way to making up for his deficiencies in the field.

[edabbs44]

Add another walk in his first PA today.

What do people think? Are we seeing a new approach from Jonny or just some nice randomness? Subjectively, he certainly seems to be laying off pitches that he had offered at in the past. With his power, increased discipline could go an awfully long way to making up for his deficiencies in the field.

Jonny seems like a guy who may be willing to change his approach. He appears to love the game and I don't doubt that he didn't hear the commentary during last summer.

It might be randomness, but I wouldn't be shocked if he is trying a different approach.

[Puffy]

Add another walk in his first PA today.

What do people think? Are we seeing a new approach from Jonny or just some nice randomness? Subjectively, he certainly seems to be laying off pitches that he had offered at in the past. With his power, increased discipline could go an awfully long way to making up for his deficiencies in the field.

I would guess he is seeing the ball well and thus is laying off the breaking pitches he recognizes as down in the zone.

Once he starts not seeing the ball well those walks will probably become strikeouts. We just hope a player is seeing the ball well more often than not over the course of the season.

[jojo]

Seriously? He's had all of 20 PAs.....

[lollipopcurve]

Seriously? He's had all of 20 PAs.....

So, what CAN one say? The 20 PAs mean nothing? He's not swinging at pitches that he has often chased because some random swing-generator in his synapses is firing weird?

Look, 20 PAs mean something. He could very well have made a conscious decision to change his approach. He could be recognizing pitches easily at the moment. Whatever it is, he's not swinging at many balls out of the zone, and that's a much different-looking hitter than we saw for much of last year.

[bellhead]

Did he get lasik eye surgery done in the off season?

Maybe that's the difference.

[Tony Cloninger]

I think in 06 was it? hat the whole team was walking and scoring a bunch of runs in April.....taking pitches....and then as it moved to May.....the people who always hacked reverted back to hacking. I hope it keeps up and they all realize...at least the ones who are not selective...that this approach works, but it would be hard just to all of a sudden turn into Eddie Yost.

Speaking of Yost and Joost...and even Gaedel...Eddie's who all knew how to take a walk.....but Willie Bloomquist leads the league in SB's with 5...while hitting leadoff for Arizona. Fun times await in AZ.

[jojo]

So, what CAN one say? The 20 PAs mean nothing? He's not swinging at pitches that he has often chased because some random swing-generator in his synapses is firing weird?

Look, 20 PAs mean something. He could very well have made a conscious decision to change his approach. He could be recognizing pitches easily at the moment. Whatever it is, he's not swinging at many balls out of the zone, and that's a much different-looking hitter than we saw for much of last year.

Twenty PAs mean nothing. Twenty PAs says Nick Hundley should be the most feared hitter in baseball given his major league leading wOBA of .594.

[edabbs44]

He is saying the right things...maybe he does have a different approach.


“We’ve got a lot faith in our lineup – the guys hitting in front of us, the guys hitting behind us,” Gomes said. “I think a really successful hitter has to do with who’s hitting ahead of him and who’s hitting behind him. We’re really stacked."

Gomes says the theory is simple.

“If you want to tell someone how to hit in the big leagues, you say: ‘Swing at strikes and take balls,’” he said. “I think that’s what we’re doing.”




http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110406/SPT04/304060146/Walks-propelling-Reds-season-opening-run?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CSports%7Cs

[edabbs44]

Jonny Gomes is the best example of the turnaround. Last season, the free-swinging outfielder walked only 39 times. After four games, he leads the league with seven walks. During an 8-2 win over the Astros on Tuesday night, Gomes drew a pair of walks with the bases loaded, laying off close pitches.

"If you taught every kid to hit in the big leagues, I think all you'd have to say is swing at strikes and take balls and you'll be successful,'' Gomes said. "That's what we're doing. I don't think it's any more than that. And we could go the other way: When we're slumping, what's going on? Well, swinging at balls and taking strikes.

"Basically, it's that simple.''



Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/wires/04/06/2010.ap.bbn.walkin.reds.1st.ld.writethru.0738/index.html#ixzz1IwYode5S

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/wires/04/06/2010.ap.bbn.walkin.reds.1st.ld.writethru.0738/

[lollipopcurve]

Twenty PAs mean nothing. Twenty PAs says Nick Hundley should be the most feared hitter in baseball given his major league leading wOBA of .594.

It's a matter of what you're looking for. If you're focused on the play of the game, not the outcomes, you see something meaningful in what has been happening with Gomes. Whether it's a streak of "seeing the ball well" or making a conscious adjustment remains unknown. But we should find out eventually, and then we'll know more than we did.

Maybe you take the position that Gomes cannot change, cannot learn. Maybe you feel we only learn about him when we gaze at a spreadsheet with a sufficiently high number in the plate appearances column. If so, we disagree.

[Chip R]

Twenty PAs mean nothing. Twenty PAs says Nick Hundley should be the most feared hitter in baseball given his major league leading wOBA of .594.


At the end of the season, you're right. But right now, it appears he's being more selective. That could and probably will change.

[Raisor]

Are they hard or soft walks?

you owe me a new keyboard. I was drinking coffee when I read this.

[Caveman Techie]

Seriously? He's had all of 20 PAs.....

If you are looking at the outcome, then yes you are correct 20 PAs is a small sample. However looking at approach it is a good indicator that Gomes is not swinging out of his shoes at curve balls low and outside anymore. Will it stick around? Who knows, but at least now we know he is capable of a patient approach.

In his 20PAs this season he has already taken more than 1/5th of the BBs he had all last season in 571 PAs

Hope he keeps it up.

[RedsManRick]

Twenty PAs mean nothing. Twenty PAs says Nick Hundley should be the most feared hitter in baseball given his major league leading wOBA of .594.

It's a question of process, not results. Yes, you don't make any conclusions of a sample of 20 PA. But those 20 PA can cause you to ask a question that can be answered more definitively through means other than the PA outcomes.

Personally, all I was looking for was some commentary from Gomes on whether or not he's trying to do anything differently. If he says he's taking more or less the same approach and just being more successful so far, well, there you have it.

[jojo]

It's a matter of what you're looking for. If you're focused on the play of the game, not the outcomes, you see something meaningful in what has been happening with Gomes. Whether it's a streak of "seeing the ball well" or making a conscious adjustment remains unknown. But we should find out eventually, and then we'll know more than we did.

Maybe you take the position that Gomes cannot change, cannot learn. Maybe you feel we only learn about him when we gaze at a spreadsheet with a sufficiently high number in the plate appearances column. If so, we disagree.

I take the position that a player doesn't have a walk rate of roughly 7% over 900 PAs as a red and then suddenly have a legitimate walk rate of 36% at the age of 31 unless he's prematurely aged to the point where sluggers just walk their way quietly into retirement.

You can put strawmen in momma's basement but all I'm doing is evoking common sense and a little bit of stats concerning the unreliability of extremely small sample sizes.

[RichRed]

In his 20PAs this season he has already taken more than 1/5th of the BBs he had all last season in 571 PAs

Hope he keeps it up.

But he even had a stretch like this last year. He drew 7 BBs in 22 PAs during a 6-game stretch from 8/8 to 8/15 (4 came in one game against the Cubs), but only 32 BBs in his remaining 549 PAs.

I hope he keeps it up too and that this really is a change in approach but I'm a little skeptical. If he proves me wrong, that's good news for all of us.

[RedsManRick]

I take the position that a player doesn't have a walk rate of roughly 7% over 900 PAs as a red and then suddenly have a legitimate walk rate of 36% at the age of 31 unless he's prematurely aged to the point where sluggers just walk their way quietly into retirement.

You can put strawmen in momma's basement but all I'm doing is evoking common sense and a little bit of stats concerning the unreliability of extremely small sample sizes.

Just curious, Jojo. But has anybody suggested he now has a legitimate (by which I assume you mean "true talent" or "sustainable") walk rate of 36%? Talk about strawmen....

[jojo]

Just curious, Jojo. But has anybody suggested he now has a legitimate walk rate of 36%? Talk about strawmen....

Not even close to a strawman Rick....not even close....several have suggested a change in approach that is real.... 36% is the actual magnitude of the "change"....again if one argues this is real, then they need to appreciate just how unreal it really is when they talk about mom's basement versus baseball common sense.

From Aug third to Aug 24 of last year, Gomes had a walk rate of 20% over 55 PA's. Surely if 20 PAs signals a true change in approach than 55 is very solid footing.

He had a walk rate of 4.9% the rest of the season (143 PA's). You know what....just as those 55 PA's weren't accurately capturing his true skill, the following 143 weren't either as they would underestimate his ability to walk.

This beast has a name and thy name is random.

[edabbs44]

I don't think anyone has said that he has definitely changed his approach or that he will carry this approach through the Fall, but is it impossible that he could do that? Where he goes from a 40 BB guy to a 60 or so BB guy? Which he did eclipse once in his career?

[RedsManRick]

Not even close to a strawman Rick....not even close....several have suggested a change in approach that is real.... 36% is the actual magnitude of the "change"....again if one argues this is real, then they need to appreciate just how unreal it really is when they talk about mom's basement versus baseball common sense.

From a purely stats perspective, the hypothesis testing is this: If our null hypothesis is 9% and we observe a 36% over 22 PA, what are the chances that the true value is greater than 9%. It is not asking whether that new value is 36%.

Suggesting that a change in approach is real is NOT the same as suggesting that the specific change in results is real. You're creating a direct equivalence that others are not.

The logic goes thusly:
- His current 36% walk rate could be an indicator of a new approach
- A new approach could result in an increase in his long-term walk rate

Now, I agree with you 100% that a sample of 22 PA is not sufficient to even dismiss the null hypothesis in the test above. Anybody who thinks it is enough evidence is wrong. But I, for one, am suggesting that it is enough to suggest that we should seek out other evidence. If all we had were stats, we'd be at a dead end. Luckily, Gomes can talk and describe whether or not he's changed his approach.

I have very little confidence in any sort of assertion that he will significantly increase his walk rate in 2011. But to frame the discussion as one that can only be assessed in terms of statistics is the kind of myopia that gives Sabermetrics a bad name.

What we've seen so far is in no way proof of a new approach that will result in more walks. But it certainly raises the possibility and merits continued observation. Evoking unreliability is one thing; Mis-characterizing the conversation is another.

[Patrick Bateman]

I don't think anyone has said that he has definitely changed his approach or that he will carry this approach through the Fall, but is it impossible that he could do that? Where he goes from a 40 BB guy to a 60 or so BB guy? Which he did eclipse once in his career?

That's how I interpreted it too.

If he really has a change of approach, it might result in some type of increase, even if not to the degree of 36%. An increase by just a few percent could help Gomes become an above average on base threat.

I remember Phillips a few seasons ago started with a similar pace of walks, I was hopeful it was a change of approach, but Phillips quickly went back to his old ways, and the truth was the streak at the beginning was simly randomness.

I do believe that there is room to suggest that Gomes might be continuing to work on a more patient approach as it is clearly something he is aware of, however, at the same time, it is more than likely that Gomes fits under the "can't teach an old dog new tricks" mantra, however, like most anything else, time will tell whether Gomes can be a guy who bucks the normal trends. I'm guessing it's something he has likely always strived to improve, however, he might just not have the pitch recognition ability to improve his walk rate without a hinderance to the rest of his offensive game.

[Scrap Irony]

Oddly, last season, Phillips had a similar epiphany about taking walks. And it worked until he hurt his hand late in the season.

I'm extremely hopeful both Phillips and Gomes will take the cue of Rolen, Votto, Hanigan and others in the lineup.

[jojo]

From a purely stats perspective, the hypothesis testing is this: If our null hypothesis is 9% and we observe a 36% over 22 PA, what are the chances that the true value is greater than 9%. It is not asking whether that new value is 36%.

Suggesting that a change in approach is real is NOT the same as suggesting that the specific change in results is real. You're creating a direct equivalence that others are not.

The logic goes thusly:
- His current 36% walk rate could be an indicator of a new approach
- A new approach could result in an increase in his long-term walk rate

Now, I agree with you 100% that a sample of 22 PA is not sufficient to even dismiss the null hypothesis in the test above. Anybody who thinks it is enough evidence is wrong. But I, for one, am suggesting that it is enough to suggest that we should seek out other evidence. If all we had were stats, we'd be at a dead end. Luckily, Gomes can talk and describe whether or not he's changed his approach.

I have very little confidence in any sort of assertion that he will significantly increase his walk rate in 2011. But to frame the discussion as one that can only be assessed in terms of statistics is the kind of myopia that gives Sabermetrics a bad name.

What we've seen so far is in no way proof of a new approach that will result in more walks. But it certainly raises the possibility and merits continued observation. Evoking unreliability is one thing; Mis-characterizing the conversation is another.

Did his May of last year warrant continued observation? As I'm sure you agreed at the time, of course not. Seriously, we've seen this time and time and time again in players. BTW, NOTHING has been mischaracterized by my posts in this conversation especially if this was the argument:


The logic goes thusly:
- His current 36% walk rate could be an indicator of a new approach
- A new approach could result in an increase in his long-term walkrate

We know ANYTHING is possible in 20 PAs. Forget sabermetrics-especially since no one has argued the this discussion can only be framed by statistics (to argue otherwise is actually a mischaracterization). Albert Pujols' walk rate is almost half of his career rate as is his current ISO. Could this be an indicator of a new approach? He's looked really, really bad thus far. Should we expect Albert to hit like a pitcher from now on? Should we expect that the Padres will eventually erect a bronze statue of Nick Hundley? He's been the new Bench thus far.

[Scrap Irony]

No one argued that Gomes' approach is set in reality. Mischaracterizing that (by attempting to conflate it with Pujols' struggles or Hundley's fast start) is, by all accounts on this thread aside from yours, incorrect.

Most posters on this thread are merely suggesting Gomes BB totals are a nice sign of a possible new approach. (The same approach he commented on-- and was quoted on-- earlier in this thread.

Is it possible that this is merely random noise? I think everyone on the thread buys that. Not only possible, but probable.

Only you seem to think there's some kind of paper tiger worth chasing here.

[jojo]

No one argued that Gomes' approach is set in reality. Mischaracterizing that (by attempting to conflate it with Pujols' struggles or Hundley's fast start) is, by all accounts on this thread aside from yours, incorrect.

Most posters on this thread are merely suggesting Gomes BB totals are a nice sign of a possible new approach. (The same approach he commented on-- and was quoted on-- earlier in this thread.

Is it possible that this is merely random noise? I think everyone on the thread buys that. Not only possible, but probable.

Only you seem to think there's some kind of paper tiger worth chasing here.

I responded to a specific assertion:

Look, 20 PAs mean something.

My response. No they don't. They can't be a tell for Gomes but some kind of a logical fallacy if the same standard is applied to Pujols.

Again, it simply isn't a mischaraterization to point out a glaring inconsistency in an argument.

As an aside, it's also a shame how that can be so easily misconstrued as a bias due to saber.

[Scrap Irony]

20 ABs DO mean something, jojo. It's 3-4% of a player's overall ABs in a season.

It can also be a precursor to a discussion about a player finding a new way of doing something. That's what this discussion was. It certainly wasn't saber, nor did it pretend to be. No one said this is what Gomes is going to be going forward. Most called it a small sample, but a good sign of a player's patience at the beginning of the season.

IMO, Gomes has focused on swinging only at "pitches he can handle". He recognized that he had a problem last season swinging at a pitcher's pitches. That approach-- certainly visible in 20 ABs at the beginning of the season-- can't be anything but good, even if he doesn't walk the rest of the month.

In short, Gomes has a problem, but at least he recognizes it. He's taking steps to correct his problem. That's what this discussion (and these 20 ABs) are all about.

The saber viewpoint aside can be argued in another thread, IMO. (One that I will ignore, as we've gone through that particular discussion every year for a decade now.)

[jojo]

20 ABs DO mean something, jojo. It's 3-4% of a player's overall ABs in a season.

It can also be a precursor to a discussion about a player finding a new way of doing something. That's what this discussion was. It certainly wasn't saber, nor did it pretend to be. No one said this is what Gomes is going to be going forward. Most called it a small sample, but a good sign of a player's patience at the beginning of the season.

IMO, Gomes has focused on swinging only at "pitches he can handle". He recognized that he had a problem last season swinging at a pitcher's pitches. That approach-- certainly visible in 20 ABs at the beginning of the season-- can't be anything but good, even if he doesn't walk the rest of the month.

In short, Gomes has a problem, but at least he recognizes it. He's taking steps to correct his problem. That's what this discussion (and these 20 ABs) are all about.

The saber viewpoint aside can be argued in another thread, IMO. (One that I will ignore, as we've gone through that particular discussion every year for a decade now.)

If we were actually seeing the manifestation of a new approach then Gomes is in big trouble. Sure he has laid off pitches that were outside of the strikezone at a dramatically greater rate but he's also significantly reduced the number of pitches inside the strikezone he's swung at and unfortunately also reduced the number of times he actually hits balls he swings at. What Gomes has done thus far is basically glue his bat to his shoulder.... When he has decided to swing, he hasn't hit the ball as much as in the past.

Lets assume this 20 PAs actually were meaningful. They'd suggest he's in big, big trouble concerning his batting eye.....

So basically, my argument again is, "no, 20 PA's are simply not enough to inform anything let alone a meaningful change in true talent" and further, "even if they were, what we've seen from Gomes thus far, is NOT a good thing as it really isn't a recipe for long term success".

But seriously, there is zero room for anything other than anecdotal evidence in a discussion such as this?

[IslandRed]

20 ABs DO mean something, jojo. It's 3-4% of a player's overall ABs in a season.

It can also be a precursor to a discussion about a player finding a new way of doing something. That's what this discussion was. It certainly wasn't saber, nor did it pretend to be. No one said this is what Gomes is going to be going forward. Most called it a small sample, but a good sign of a player's patience at the beginning of the season.

IMO, Gomes has focused on swinging only at "pitches he can handle". He recognized that he had a problem last season swinging at a pitcher's pitches. That approach-- certainly visible in 20 ABs at the beginning of the season-- can't be anything but good, even if he doesn't walk the rest of the month.

In short, Gomes has a problem, but at least he recognizes it. He's taking steps to correct his problem. That's what this discussion (and these 20 ABs) are all about.

The saber viewpoint aside can be argued in another thread, IMO. (One that I will ignore, as we've gone through that particular discussion every year for a decade now.)

Good post.

If this were a 20-30 PA sample randomly placed throughout the season, then it's pretty easily tossed in the "just one of those things" bin. But if a player comes into the season with a specific goal of improving his plate discipline, and actually does it once the real games start, that's not a bad thing. It at least leaves open the possibility that some level of improvement will stick, even though we all expect the walk rate to go back much closer to his career norms as the season goes along.

[Chip R]

But seriously, there is zero room for anything other than anecdotal evidence in a discussion such as this?

No one has suggested that it's anything else but anecdotal evidence. everything I've read has had the disclaimers "so far" and "for now" in them. No one has suggested he's turned into Adam Dunn all of a sudden and most people have suggested he will probably revert to his norm.

[Caveat Emperor]

I don't think anyone has said that he has definitely changed his approach or that he will carry this approach through the Fall

I am -- even got my official Johnny "BB" Good t-shirt to wear when he breaks the walk reacord this September.

[Patrick Bateman]

I am -- even got my official Johnny "BB" Good t-shirt to wear when he breaks the walk reacord this September.

Prettay, prettay, prettaaaay good.

[REDREAD]

I remember Phillips a few seasons ago started with a similar pace of walks, I was hopeful it was a change of approach, but Phillips quickly went back to his old ways, and the truth was the streak at the beginning was simly randomness.
.

It could be a legitimate adjustment (for both Phillips and Gomes this year).

For example, Gomes might be saying.. "Hey, I strike out a lot on those low and away breaking balls. I am going to stop swinging at them until pitchers consistently get called strikes on them".. That's just an example. I have not seen the Reds on TV this year, so I don't know what Gomes is doing different (if anything). The thing is, over time, the pitchers will notice the hitters new approach and they will also adjust.

So I guess my point is that an improvement like this might not necessarily been random.. it might be a serious effort to by the player to change his approach, but it's hard to sustain an improvement like that.

[jojo]

No one has suggested that it's anything else but anecdotal evidence. everything I've read has had the disclaimers "so far" and "for now" in them. No one has suggested he's turned into Adam Dunn all of a sudden and most people have suggested he will probably revert to his norm.

That was the point of the comment. Several now have bristled at the notion that anything close to a stat-based comment might be helpful in this discussion.

Heck, as pointed out, just because a batter has a dramatically increased total of walks, it doesn't mean he's improved his plate discipline. The only thing it proves is that a batter has seen more balls.

[edabbs44]

I am -- even got my official Johnny "BB" Good t-shirt to wear when he breaks the walk reacord this September.

Have at it.

http://shop.mlb.com/product/index.jsp?productId=4161457&cp=11315767.11315796

[edabbs44]

Heck, as pointed out, just because a batter has a dramatically increased total of walks, it doesn't mean he's improved his plate discipline. The only thing it proves is that a batter has seen more balls.

Or has swung at less of them.

[jojo]

Or has swung at less of them.

He's swung at less of everything and missed more of what he has swing at. That is the point. As changes in approach go, such a strategy isn't likely to track well for a guy like Gomes.

[westofyou]

Or has swung at less of them.

Or perhaps he used.... dare I say it?

Magic!

Small sample arguments are the best thing to lean on until the large samples are built, but in the end they are awash in the fallacies inherent to small sample sizes .

But nevertheless they are fun... I mean Gomes has 224 lifetime BB's and so far this season he's projected for 216!!!

[edabbs44]

He's swung at less of everything and missed more of what he has swing at. That is the point. As changes in approach go, such a strategy isn't likely to track well for a guy like Gomes.

You were speaking generally in your post. Not Gomes specific.

[jojo]

You were speaking generally in your post. Not Gomes specific.

I was speaking specifically about Gomes' first 22 PA's and how he has arrived at his 8 walks.

[edabbs44]

I was speaking specifically about Gomes' first 22 PA's and how he has arrived at his 8 walks.

Didn't come through in your post from your wording. But I get it.

[757690]

If we were actually seeing the manifestation of a new approach then Gomes is in big trouble. Sure he has laid off pitches that were outside of the strikezone at a dramatically greater rate but he's also significantly reduced the number of pitches inside the strikezone he's swung at and unfortunately also reduced the number of times he actually hits balls he swings at. What Gomes has done thus far is basically glue his bat to his shoulder.... When he has decided to swing, he hasn't hit the ball as much as in the past.



Funny quirky stat, but Gomes currently this season, with his "new approach", is OPS'ing almost his exact career OPS.

[mbgrayson]

Gomes continues to hold the MLB lead with 10 walks. See HERE (http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_stats&statType=1&teamPosCode=All&c_id=mlb&section1=1&noHighlight=true&timeFrame=1&baseballScope=mlb&statSet1=1&timeSubFrame=2011&&sortByStat=BB).

[LvJ]

Make that 11.

[The Voice of IH]

Gomes is quickly becoming a Billy Bean type of guy! :eek:

[Ron Madden]

Gomes is quickly becoming a Billy Bean type of guy! :eek:


LOL, I don't think so.

[reds44]

He still can't hit righties or play defense. Or really do anything but walk, which you know won't last.

[The Voice of IH]

LOL, I don't think so.

lol, I'm about 40 pages through the book right now, so give me a few to read and I'll be able debate this issue :cool:

[Degenerate39]

I just want Heisey or Lewis or anyone in left field every day. This has got to stop Dusty

[Big Klu]

LOL, I don't think so.

Well played, sir. :cool:

[Razor Shines]

I just want Heisey or Lewis or anyone in left field every day. This has got to stop Dusty

Well we'll probably get our wish. I'm sure all these walks are quickly putting Gomes in Dusty's doghouse. :D

[Griffey012]

I just want Heisey or Lewis or anyone in left field every day. This has got to stop Dusty

It is pretty funny that Gomes is getting on base at a .462 clip and people are still blaming Dusty for not having Heisey in Left Field. We all know Gomes will not keep it up the walks, but as long as he is getting on base this often, he should be playing LF.

[Caveman Techie]

It is pretty funny that Gomes is getting on base at a .462 clip and people are still blaming Dusty for not having Heisey in Left Field. We all know Gomes will not keep it up the walks, but as long as he is getting on base this often, he should be playing LF.

Even last night Thom and Brantley were asking why Gomes was still out there in the bottom of the 8th inning in a one run game. Top of the 9th and Gomes was the one to get the big hit to break it open for the Reds. As long as he is hot, Dusty should continue to use him.

[Big Klu]

Even last night Thom and Brantley were asking why Gomes was still out there in the bottom of the 8th inning in a one run game. Top of the 9th and Gomes was the one to get the big hit to break it open for the Reds. As long as he is hot, Dusty should continue to use him.

I also questioned it (and I'm a bigger Gomes fan than most are on RZ), but I was thinking about defense. Late in a one-run game, I want to bolster the defense without crippling the offense. Substituting Heisey for Gomes in LF accomplishes that. It's a matter of range--I don't like having Gomes in LF in the big outfields in the NL West, particularly Arizona and Colorado.

[RedsManRick]

Another RBI walk from the league leader.

[Big Klu]

How long before we start seeing the "Jonny Walker Red" t-shirts at GABP? :D

[kaldaniels]

Another RBI walk from the league leader.

I thought for sure he'd be hacking on that 3-1 pitch with the bases loaded. Color me very impressed.

[kaldaniels]

How long before we start seeing the "Jonny Walker Red" t-shirts at GABP? :D

You better trademark that one. Nice.

[The Operator]

How long before we start seeing the "Jonny Walker Red" t-shirts at GABP? :DTop notch stuff right there. :thumbup:

[fearofpopvol1]

Johnny has had a great day today.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

Impressive the Gomes leads the league in walks ... and he's not even getting to face Nick Masset and the rest of the Reds bullpen.

[edabbs44]

Impressive the Gomes leads the league in walks ... and he's not even getting to face Nick Masset and the rest of the Reds bullpen.

How about Volquez?

[bucksfan2]

From my perspective Gomes is laying off those pitches on the outside of the plate. The pitches pitchers use to pound him with. He is taking some for strikes but a great number more are balls. If Gomes continues to do that he will continue to walk which will lead to more pitches over the heart of the plate. IMO it was a great adjustment that he has made. Hopefully he can continue it as the season goes along.

[edabbs44]

Jonny with 12 BBs in his first 35 PAs. Last year his monthly high was also 12 (August)...in 84 PAs. He also has more right now than he did in Mar/April, June and July combined.

One thing I was worried about with his "new" approach was where he would become too selective and start to K more.

2011: One K for every 5.83 PAs
2010: One K for every 4.64 PAs

Maybe not. Also, so far it doesn't seem like being in a hole has been killing him either.

After a 1-0 count: .375/.688/.875
After an 0-1 count: .181/.400/.455

In 2010, here was his line after falling behind 0-1: .238/.298/.335

Small sample size for sure. No one is claiming that this will continue because it obviously will not. But I am happy to see the approach. And I don't think that we can claim anymore that the sample is the reason for the increase in BBs. Maybe Jonny really took the 2nd half of 2010 to heart and researched what was keeping him down. Either way, it seems like there is a difference and I think everyone is refreshed to see that. I think a key for JG will be to hit some bombs early on since I would guess that if he continued to BB at a good clip w/o some "tangibe" production, you may see him revert to the swinging freely days. That's why I was really happy to see him murder that pitch yesterday. Would have been even better if Masset didn't implode.

[Edd Roush]

Thanks for the research, edabbs. Interesting stuff for sure.

[westofyou]

Pitch Analysis

Gomes, Jonny
2011




Pitches Seen 142
Taken 102 72%
Swung At 40 28%

Pitches Taken
Taken for a Strike 28 27%
Called a ball 74 73%

Pitches Taken by Pitch Location
In Strike Zone 28 30%
High 12 13%
Low 22 24%
Inside 7 8%
Outside 24 26%

Swung At
Missed 14 35%
Fouled Off 8 20%
Put in Play 18 45%

Swung At by Pitch Location
In Strike Zone 22 63%
High 2 6%
Low 4 11%
Inside 3 9%
Outside 4 11%

[edabbs44]

You have that for last year?

[westofyou]

Overall 2010

Pitches Seen 2010
Taken 994 49%
Swung At 1016 51%

Pitches Taken
Taken for a Strike 301 30%
Called a ball 693 70%

Pitches Taken by Pitch Location
In Strike Zone 301 30%
High 107 11%
Low 238 24%
Inside 84 8%
Outside 262 26%

Swung At
Missed 270 27%
Fouled Off 334 33%
Put in Play 412 41%

Swung At by Pitch Location
In Strike Zone 588 58%
High 58 6%
Low 146 14%
Inside 73 7%
Outside 147 15%

[edabbs44]

Interesting...ball/strike ratios are very similar, but seeing more than a half a pitch more per PA this year. Swinging less as well, which may be due to him seeing more balls or him just showing more discretion early in the count. Will be interesting to see if this carries fwd or if things change.

[lollipopcurve]

Swinging less as well, which may be due to him seeing more balls or him just showing more discretion early in the count.

He's swinging WAY less -- 28% vs. 51%. Now that's significant.

I have to say, I don't give a lot of credence to one set of these stats WOY has posted. Someone is making a judgment about whether a ball that's been hit or fouled would have been a ball or a strike. Way too many of those are too close to call with any certainty.

[kaldaniels]

He's swinging WAY less -- 28% vs. 51%. Now that's significant.

I have to say, I don't give a lot of credence to one set of these stats WOY has posted. Someone is making a judgment about whether a ball that's been hit or fouled would have been a ball or a strike. Way too many of those are too close to call with any certainty.

Ignorant question by me here...doesn't pitchfx know?

[edabbs44]

He's swinging WAY less -- 28% vs. 51%. Now that's significant.

I have to say, I don't give a lot of credence to one set of these stats WOY has posted. Someone is making a judgment about whether a ball that's been hit or fouled would have been a ball or a strike. Way too many of those are too close to call with any certainty.

Swinging way less sure. But the ratios are somewhat similar.

[lollipopcurve]

Ignorant question by me here...doesn't pitchfx know?

I don't know how the technology works. But an umpire needs to see the full flight of the pitch before he knows if it's a ball or strike, right? A struck ball interrupts that.

[lollipopcurve]

Something else to keep in mind here, though it may not be statistically that significant....

Lots of strikes are not good pitches to hit. Some balls are good pitches to hit.

[Far East]

Has anybody else noticed that Gomes, as much as, and probably more than any other Red, gets pitches out of the strike zone that should be called balls but are called strikes by the ump?

In a perfect world he would have even more walks than his record shows, or at least have more "hitters counts" to work with --- and thus perhaps better hiting stats all around.

Additionally, Jonny seems pretty philosophical about those "bad" calls -- a little body language and then just "shakes it off" and gets back in the batter's box for the next pitch.

[dougdirt]

I don't know how the technology works. But an umpire needs to see the full flight of the pitch before he knows if it's a ball or strike, right? A struck ball interrupts that.
Most pitches are hit within a foot of the plate. You know whether a pitch is a ball or strike at that point.

And yes, Pitch F/X knows whether it was a strike or not. Or at least if it should have been as designated by the rulebook strikezone.

[lollipopcurve]

Most pitches are hit within a foot of the plate. You know whether a pitch is a ball or strike at that point.

Not sure I buy that. At the very least, there are a lot of borderline balls/strikes in the major leagues. No electronic system is an authority on those, much less on those close pitches that never reach the plate.

[fearofpopvol1]

Gomes has looked good so far. However, Gomes had an awfully hot start last year as well and pretty much tanked the last half of the year. But by all means, right the hot bat.

[edabbs44]

Gomes has looked good so far. However, Gomes had an awfully hot start last year as well and pretty much tanked the last half of the year. But by all means, right the hot bat.

He actually had a crap April and got hot from May to the middle of June.

[bucksfan2]

Gomes has looked good so far. However, Gomes had an awfully hot start last year as well and pretty much tanked the last half of the year. But by all means, right the hot bat.

Last year Gomes looked he went into a tailspin that corresponded pretty closely with him hitting 99 HR's. He was one HR away from 100 and it appeared as if he was swinging for the fences in every at bat. He may have been pressing to get that milestone and his game went down hill from that point. Its something that I noticed last year and his appearance at the plate looks much different this year. It may be nothing, but I think there is some validity to it.

[lollipopcurve]

Last year Gomes looked he went into a tailspin that corresponded pretty closely with him hitting 99 HR's. He was one HR away from 100 and it appeared as if he was swinging for the fences in every at bat. He may have been pressing to get that milestone and his game went down hill from that point. Its something that I noticed last year and his appearance at the plate looks much different this year. It may be nothing, but I think there is some validity to it.

Excellent point.

[lollipopcurve]

Last year Gomes looked he went into a tailspin that corresponded pretty closely with him hitting 99 HR's. He was one HR away from 100 and it appeared as if he was swinging for the fences in every at bat. He may have been pressing to get that milestone and his game went down hill from that point. Its something that I noticed last year and his appearance at the plate looks much different this year. It may be nothing, but I think there is some validity to it.

Excellent point.

[westofyou]

Gomes hit his 95th HR on 6-12, he had 2hr's that night and had a line of .307/.372/.547

His 96th HR was on 7-4 by then he had this as a line .287/342/.490

By the time he his 99th on 7-19 his line was .283/.332/.488

On 8-25 he hit his 100th and his line was .262/.327/.432


Looks to me like he started to lose it after 95, dropping 30 OB points and 57 SLG points

The wait from 99 to 100 affected his slugging for sure, but his OB% only 5 points, he had 39 BB last season and 13 of them came when he was sitting on 99. So if he was "pressing" he was also taking more walks (like now) than when he was hitting the ball hard.

[OnBaseMachine]

I like this quote from Gomes. From John Fay:

Gomes did not hear Latos say anything after HR. "I heard he did. That's why I ran by him later. I gave him the opportunity. He declined"

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

[reds44]

That's awesome.

[Boss-Hog]

I like this quote from Gomes. From John Fay:

Gomes did not hear Latos say anything after HR. "I heard he did. That's why I ran by him later. I gave him the opportunity. He declined"

http://twitter.com/johnfayman
:lol:

[Tommyjohn25]

I like this quote from Gomes. From John Fay:

Gomes did not hear Latos say anything after HR. "I heard he did. That's why I ran by him later. I gave him the opportunity. He declined"

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

Gotta love it. I wonder who would win in a fight between Gomes and Farnsworth in his prime?

[Spitball]

Gotta love it. I wonder who would win in a fight between Gomes and Farnsworth in his prime?

Whose prime? For the sake of Paul Wilson, I am going to say Gomes wins every time and any time. :beerme:.

[RedsManRick]

Johnny Walker Red at it again. For what it's worth, I asked about Gomes in a chat at BP today.


Rick (Chicago): Jonny Gomes is hitting .231/.432/.615 despite a .176 BABIP and second only to Youkilis in walks in MLB. He's only swinging at 29% of the pitches he sees (compared to a career 47%). Sure, the sample size is tiny and his results are not predictive. But at what point can you use the stats as reasonable jumping off point for a more qualitative assessment? It's tough to completely ignore something seemingly so drastic!

Ben Lindbergh: Gomes is weird. Last year he suddenly started racking up infield hits, and this year he's turned into the [insert ethnicity here] God of Walks. I wouldn't expect his newfound patience to prove any more enduring than his Ichiro act from 2010. That said, swing rate stabilizes early, around 50 PA. Walk rate takes a little longer (200 PA). There's a large body of evidence to suggest that Gomes isn't this kind of hitter, and free swingers don't generally become big walkers all at once (or at all, really).


In other words, this is starting to get to a point where it's at least somewhat "real" -- but expect some heavy regression.

[Homer Bailey]

Thanks, Rick.

The rate at which it continues is certainly to be determined, but I don't think anyone will disagree with the statement that Gomes certainly is at least making a very hearted effort to adjust his approach. I'm liking it a lot.

[reds44]

Thanks, Rick.

The rate at which it continues is certainly to be determined, but I don't think anyone will disagree with the statement that Gomes certainly is at least making a very hearted effort to adjust his approach. I'm liking it a lot.
Yep. Gomes' slugging percentage is always going to keep his OPS respectable. If he can just find a way to get on base a little bit more, he could be (GASP) a viable everyday option.

You've gotta give him credit for trying. And it looks like it's a team wide effort to see more pitches. That can only be good.

[Patrick Bateman]

I actually really enjoy watching him right now.
Even if it stops working, the guy is trying a new approach, has owned up to his faults, and so far it's working. I wish him the best, and will have a lot of respect for him even if it doesn't work.

[OnBaseMachine]

I actually really enjoy watching him right now.
Even if it stops working, the guy is trying a new approach, has owned up to his faults, and so far it's working. I wish him the best, and will have a lot of respect for him even if it doesn't work.

I agree. As the ringleader of the relegate Gomes to 4th/5th outfielder camp, even I admit his approach in the first 11 games has impressed me. The slider down and away has always been his nemesis and so far, that's the pitch he's laying off of. I have my doubts it will hold up for the whole season but right now I'm enjoying it.

Now...about his defense...;) He about gave me a heart attack in the bottom of the 10th inning last night.

[edabbs44]

I agree. As the ringleader of the relegate Gomes to 4th/5th outfielder camp, even I admit his approach in the first 11 games has impressed me. The slider down and away has always been his nemesis and so far, that's the pitch he's laying off of. I have my doubts it will hold up for the whole season but right now I'm enjoying it.

Now...about his defense...;) He about gave me a heart attack in the bottom of the 10th inning last night.

And as the ringleader of the "Give Jonny a Chance" camp, it is refreshing to see this approach as well. Hopefully it continues. If it does, that could bring this lineup to a ridiculous level. Last summer was a disaster for him, it is good to see him look a little more like '09.

The two Gomes camps getting along? What has this world come to?

[Homer Bailey]

And as the ringleader of the "Give Jonny a Chance" camp, it is refreshing to see this approach as well. Hopefully it continues. If it does, that could bring this lineup to a ridiculous level. Last summer was a disaster for him, it is good to see him look a little more like '09.

The two Gomes camps getting along? What has this world come to?

Haha, it's been 11 games. Give it a chance!

[edabbs44]

Haha, it's been 11 games. Give it a chance!

True. If he dropped that fly ball last night I am sure we wouldn't be sitting around the fire singing kum-ba-ya and making smores.

But it is my dream to get there.

[757690]

There's a large body of evidence to suggest that Gomes isn't this kind of hitter, and free swingers don't generally become big walkers all at once (or at all, really).

If this is the argument against Gomes actually changing his approach for the whole season, I don't buy it. Yeah, generally a lot of things don't happen... except when they do.

I think it's hard to watch Gomes so far this year, and not conclude that he is at least trying to be more selective at the plate. If he continues to have success with this, I find it hard to believe that he would revert back to his old free swinging ways.

[edabbs44]

Big Jonny G up to .263/.453/.632 with a dinger in the 2nd today.

Here's your JG fun fact of the day. We all know that Jonny historically hits LHP much better than RHP. But, since becoming a Red, check this out:

HR vs RHP: 30
HR vs LHP: 12

Not what you would think.

[dougdirt]

Big Jonny G up to .263/.453/.632 with a dinger in the 2nd today.

Here's your JG fun fact of the day. We all know that Jonny historically hits LHP much better than RHP. But, since becoming a Red, check this out:

HR vs RHP: 30
HR vs LHP: 12

Not what you would think.

Sure it is. He gets a lot more at bats against righties than he does lefties.

[edabbs44]

Sure it is. He gets a lot more at bats against righties than he does lefties.

vs RHP: 1 HR every 20.6 PAs
vs LHP: 1 HR every 26.6 PAs

Maybe that is a better way to go about it.

[dougdirt]

vs RHP: 1 HR every 20.6 PAs
vs LHP: 1 HR every 26.6 PAs

Maybe that is a better way to go about it.

It is. Different than expected, but, what does he do all around vs RHP is really what matters.

But, to get on the topic of Gomes this year.... if he keeps walking like this, he can start all season for me.

[edabbs44]

It is. Different than expected, but, what does he do all around vs RHP is really what matters.

But, to get on the topic of Gomes this year.... if he keeps walking like this, he can start all season for me.

Of course, but with his dramatic splits I would have expected more power vs LHPs. And I agree on the topic as well. Would love to see him keep this up.

[WrongVerb]

Two things. First I hope this is a change in approach at the plate for Gomes. And second, how about we start calling him Gone-y Gomes?

[LvJ]

He is really really killin' it. He's been fun to watch.

[Caveat Emperor]

As of today, Jonny Gomes has more BBs and more HRs than Joey Votto.

[REDREAD]

I actually really enjoy watching him right now.
Even if it stops working, the guy is trying a new approach, has owned up to his faults, and so far it's working. I wish him the best, and will have a lot of respect for him even if it doesn't work.

I expect to see a decline in Gomes walks even if it is a legit change.
Pitchers are going to realize that he's stopped swinging at that low and outside pitch. Then they are going to throw him more strikes. Hopefully that leads to a spike in batting average and power (vs his career numbers)

Gomes has really been awesome so far this year.. Yea, odds are that he will regress, but I'm really enjoying him at the plate.

[Blitz Dorsey]

vs RHP: 1 HR every 20.6 PAs
vs LHP: 1 HR every 26.6 PAs

Maybe that is a better way to go about it.

Very interesting. Never would have guessed that and I don't miss a game. For some reason I thought even HR-wise that Gomes hit lefties a lot better. He hits lefties overall better, but it's very intriguing that he actually has a higher HR rate against righties.

Gomes is turning into a complete hitter right before our eyes.

[Caveat Emperor]

Very interesting. Never would have guessed that and I don't miss a game. For some reason I thought even HR-wise that Gomes hit lefties a lot better. He hits lefties overall better, but it's very intriguing that he actually has a higher HR rate against righties.

Gomes is turning into a complete hitter right before our eyes.

Gomes is more than capable of looking like an MVP candidate for a month. I'm going to reserve judgment on his "transformation" until a few months deeper into the season, at the earliest. I'll enjoy the ride while it lasts, but I've seen this act before.

If he's still producing at a high level come June, I'll reassess my position.

[jojo]

Gomes is turning into a complete hitter right before our eyes.

A statement that will live in infamy...

[edabbs44]

Gomes is more than capable of looking like an MVP candidate for a month. I'm going to reserve judgment on his "transformation" until a few months deeper into the season, at the earliest. I'll enjoy the ride while it lasts, but I've seen this act before.

If he's still producing at a high level come June, I'll reassess my position.

I'm not sure that you have actually seen this exact act. Here are some key May 2010 stats versus this year's first 2+ weeks:

May 2010 - .364/.420/.636 with 5 HRs and 22 RBI. .443 BABIP. 10/24 BB/K ratio.

2011: .268/.456/.683 with 5 HR and 13 RBI. .222 BABIP (going into today). 15/10 BB/K ratio.

This is different and we shouldn't really say that "we've seen this before", because we haven't. You could argue that May 2010 was formed by some randomness and I don't think that anyone would disagree. What can we blame this on?

And, believe me, I'm not disagreeing that this could all collapse like a house of cards. Anything is possible. I just don't think that it is fair to say that this has happened before. Because I'm not sure that it has.

[jojo]

I'm not sure that you have actually seen this exact act. Here are some key May 2010 stats versus this year's first 2+ weeks:

May 2010 - .364/.420/.636 with 5 HRs and 22 RBI. .443 BABIP. 10/24 BB/K ratio.

2011: .268/.456/.683 with 5 HR and 13 RBI. .222 BABIP (going into today). 15/10 BB/K ratio.

This is different and we shouldn't really say that "we've seen this before", because we haven't. You could argue that May 2010 was formed by some randomness and I don't think that anyone would disagree. What can we blame this on?

And, believe me, I'm not disagreeing that this could all collapse like a house of cards. Anything is possible. I just don't think that it is fair to say that this has happened before. Because I'm not sure that it has.

Technically Pale Rider was a different movie too but ya realize that you're just watching Shane by about ten minutes in and the ending comes as no surprise.

[757690]

Technically Pale Rider was a different movie too but ya realize that you're just watching Shane by about ten minutes in and the ending comes as no surprise.

So Gomes gets in a shootout at the end of the season? I actually can see that happening. :cool:

[WebScorpion]

Two things. First I hope this is a change in approach at the plate for Gomes. And second, how about we start calling him Gone-y Gomes?
We call the 2011 version Jonny Walker. Red, of course! :thumbup: :D

[edabbs44]

Technically Pale Rider was a different movie too but ya realize that you're just watching Shane by about ten minutes in and the ending comes as no surprise.

Earlier in this thread you said that 20 PAs was nothing to get fired up about. Which is fair. We are now at 57 PAs. Have you changed your assessment at all? His walk rate has "plummeted" from 36% (11 in first 31 PAs) to 15% (4 in his next 26 PAs), which is still pretty good. His BABIP is really, really low. In all honesty, do you have a detailed take on this? I'd like to see what that is and why you don't believe that maybe this is, at least, kind of real.

[Far East]

Dusty deserves some of the credit for Gomes' early success.

Over the winter and in ST, Dusty's constant praise of Jonny had to have been a great confidence builder for Gomes.

The off-season acquisition of the left-handed hitting Lewis and Hermida made it look like Gomes was destined to being platooned, but when Baker was asked about one of them being his lead-off hitter, the manager's reply was something like that they had to make the team first.

It reminds me a bit of the almost fatherly way that Leo Durocher handled the struggling rookie Willie Mays at the start of the 1951 season.

One could argue what is the cause and what is the effect (considering Bruce's slow start), but Baker has -- I think gradually -- seated Gomes ahead of the higher-priced Bruce, foregoing Dusty's typical R-L-R lineup following Votto in the order against RHP.

[jojo]

Earlier in this thread you said that 20 PAs was nothing to get fired up about. Which is fair. We are now at 57 PAs. Have you changed your assessment at all? His walk rate has "plummeted" from 36% (11 in first 31 PAs) to 15% (4 in his next 26 PAs), which is still pretty good. His BABIP is really, really low. In all honesty, do you have a detailed take on this? I'd like to see what that is and why you don't believe that maybe this is, at least, kind of real.

We had this conversation last season as well and my take is unchanged. Gomes is a wOBA=.340 guy who can't play defense...not a wOBA=.483 guy. He'll regress to his true talent level over enough PAs.

If he pulls a Jose Bautista for 1000+ PAs then it might be time to redefine his true talent.

[lollipopcurve]

We had this conversation last season as well and my take is unchanged. Gomes is a wOBA=.340 guy who can't play defense...not a wOBA=.483 guy. He'll regress to his true talent level over enough PAs.

If he pulls a Jose Bautista for 1000+ PAs then it might be time to redefine his true talent.

How many PAs establish "true talent"?

It's great news that you have this information, because it will make understanding baseball so much easier. We can all be right about every player!

[jojo]

How many PAs establish "true talent"?

It's great news that you have this information, because it will make understanding baseball so much easier. We can all be right about every player!

The most exciting part is that someone has already done the research! That's even greater news because it's that much easier for the truly curious to look up-for free!!!!!!

[membengal]

Earlier in this thread you said that 20 PAs was nothing to get fired up about. Which is fair. We are now at 57 PAs. Have you changed your assessment at all? His walk rate has "plummeted" from 36% (11 in first 31 PAs) to 15% (4 in his next 26 PAs), which is still pretty good. His BABIP is really, really low. In all honesty, do you have a detailed take on this? I'd like to see what that is and why you don't believe that maybe this is, at least, kind of real.

He did this with Josh Hamilton in his return to baseball spring and hot early start to that season too. It's a fair question, since it is not, every time, as simple as saying, a certain player will be what he always has been. Sometimes, players change approach. Even improve. And a zombie-like recitation of "he is what he is" isn't appropriate in those situations.

I also have no idea if this is a real change for Gomes or not, but as a fan, it is heartening as all get out to see this particular hot streak, for the reasons you laid out last page. This streak built on some noteworthy plate discipline, well, that's just delightful as opposed to a BABIP fueled hot streak. I am happy to enjoy watching it and see where this goes, and also happy, if it does fall apart, the Reds have options.

[jojo]

He did this with Josh Hamilton in his return to baseball spring and hot early start to that season too. It's a fair question, since it is not, every time, as simple as saying, a certain player will be what he always has been. Sometimes, players change approach. Even improve. And a zombie-like recitation of "he is what he is" isn't appropriate in those situations.

My argument relating to Hamilton centered upon the risk of penciling Josh in as the starting centerfielder based upon the first two weeks of spring training. Josh didn't magically transform his true talent. We had no idea how to predict what his true talent would be. Gomes has a track record.

[membengal]

My argument relating to Hamilton centered upon the risk of penciling Josh in as the starting centerfielder based upon the first two weeks of spring training. Josh didn't magically transform his true talent. We had no idea how to predict what his true talent would be. Gomes has a track record.

Your posts that spring were dismissive of what he was showing, and you were steadfast that it was, at best, a mirage. Again, sometimes, it is okay in baseball to allow for the fact that, even though rare, players can change approach, and such changes might yield different results than what has come before.

Edabbs did some nice work last page showing that this current streak does look quite a bit different than other streaks we have seen from him in the past. I am not invested enough in this to go looking to see if he ever had a similar OBP/walk fueled hot streak when he was in Tampa or not, but this is new to his Cincy experience to my recollection. So, over 60 at-bats, it is of interest. I think every person who has asked the question about change in approach in this thread has acknowledged the SSS, but it remains a discussion point, I would hope, whether he has in fact changed approach and if this is a sign of that change.

Otherwise, why even watch the games unfold? Or is it only more fun/appropriate to check back in December after 500 at-bats? Because, if so, yuck. The game is on the field as well as on the back of the baseball card, at least for me, and the journey to the stats on the back of the baseball card is where the fun is.

[jojo]

Your posts that spring were dismissive of what he was showing, and you were steadfast that it was, at best, a mirage. Again, sometimes, it is okay in baseball to allow for the fact that, even though rare, players can change approach, and such changes might yield different results than what has come before.

Here are my "dismissive" thoughts on Hamilton:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1276436&postcount=

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1276484&postcount=12

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1276609&postcount=30

I guess someone could argue that the opinions in the links were "wrong" but they certainly were not dismissive or intractable to the notion he could be a legit starter. What position they illustrate is actually that we don't know. Again, that's an example of "absolutism" or a dogmatic, slavish approach to player worth? Also, the obvious position in March of 2007 was that clearly Hamilton was a 5 win talent over a full season?

Seriously.

In this thread, I was asked specifically for my thoughts concerning 57 PAs from Gomes. Sorry you disagree with them but don't act like my argument has been jammed down your throat. Also don't act like my argument was that players can never change. Clearly, I think Bautista is one such player. And again, the Hamilton case doesn't help yours.

[membengal]

The isssue was tone and allowing for the possibility of the unexpected. I don't have the time to go back through all of that early season but I know when you wrote to me about it, and dismissive it was. And yes, that he became a 5 win player one of those wonderful random things that makes baseball interesting. And something unseen but that was hinted at over a SSS that spring.

[Red Leader]

I definitely like what I'm seeing from Gomes, and the BB/K ratio we're seeing this year might be the result of an adjustment or different approach from Jonny. However, I have seen Jonny start the season out on a tear before. He had a great month of May last year. He started off hot in Tampa in 2006 and stayed hot pretty much the whole first half of the season. The difference with those two years is that his BB/K rate was no where near what it is this year. He walked 39 times last year. Total. He already has 15 BB's this year and it's April 17th. Some other interesting stats for this year:

Against LHP: 4-10, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4/1 BB/K ratio. .400/.571/1.100/1.671
Against RHP: 7-31, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 11/9 BB/K ratio. .226/.419/.548/.967

Jonny has always hit lefties pretty well. What I'm most impressed by is his approach vs RHP this year. His BB/K rate is good, his power is there and he hasn't been extremely "hit lucky". His average is actually kind of low compared to his career.

[jojo]

The isssue was tone and allowing for the possibility of the unexpected.

Then is there is no issue. In a response to a direct question, I apparently simply disagree with your position concerning the likelihood Gomes has significantly changed his true talent level.

But one is left wondering, why it isn't considered stifling the discussion to suggest such arguments shouldn't be made?

[lollipopcurve]

The most exciting part is that someone has already done the research! That's even greater news because it's that much easier for the truly curious to look up-for free!!!!!!

So, you don't know? Because I don't. Please either share this knowledge or let me know where to find it.

Keep in mind that what might be considered "true" by any statistical rendering is a generalization that need not apply to all players. What is clearly going on in this thread is that posters who are watching Gomes closely are theorizing that he may be one of the players who is undergoing a renaissance in his approach that would veer his performance away from his previously established norms. The observations have included both observed and statistical data. You've dismissed these observations as having no merit, based on the assumption that the "true talent" marker has been reached for Gomes, which seems to attribute an infallibility to a statistical generalization that, in the real world of baseball, it does not deserve.

[membengal]

Then is there is no issue. In a response to a direct question, I apparently simply disagree with your position concerning the likelihood Gomes has significantly changed his true talent level.

But one is left wondering, why it isn't considered stifling the discussion to suggest such arguments shouldn't be made?

I have no position on whether he has changed or not. I thank you to not assign views to me that I have not taken.

I am allowing for the possibility that people/players can make changes. And that possibility intrigues me. You seem to not be so allowing. And I don't seen an "argument" from you, I see dismissive "he is what he is" posts. And that's not particularly compelling. And, you have gone down that similar road in the past. It's not a good look, whether stat based or not. Sometimes players change. Sometimes they try to change. Infrequently, the attempted change results in a changed performance. The question that has been asked is if this might be happening here. I have no idea, myself, if it will take, but I, at least, allow for the possibility of the unexpected.

You, at least, appear not to, as your series of posts in this thread have been dismissive of anyone trying to have that conversation and can be summed up as "he ain't gonna change so why bother looking at it". If that's what you think, fine. But why spend so much time trying to keep others from looking at the question? That's what I don't get. And, in looking at it, in no way am I (or I think, most people) signing on that there is a definite improvement here that will sustain. Just curious if there can be.

[TheNext44]

Then is there is no issue. In a response to a direct question, I apparently simply disagree with your position concerning the likelihood Gomes has significantly changed his true talent level.
?

One thing to consider about a baseball player's true talent level, is that it involves many things, including his approach to the game. Statistically and Socialogically, true changes in a players approach to the game are rare.

But they do happen, and unlike their true skill level, the changes in approach can lead to significant difference in performance.

It's way too early to tell if Gomes really has changed his approach, but it is possible that if he does, his production could be drastically improved. I think it's premature to dismiss it, just as it's premature to proclaim it.

[jojo]

So, you don't know?

I've clearly told you that the research exists and its easy to find. Given the snark of the original question, it's perfectly fair to suggest you do some heavy lifting if you indeed are truly curious (especially since finding the answer doesn't really require heavy lifting).

If you really want a shortcut, just search my posts in the archive.


Keep in mind that what might be considered "true" by any statistical rendering is a generalization that need not apply to all players. What is clearly going on in this thread is that posters who are watching Gomes closely are theorizing that he may be one of the players who is undergoing a renaissance in his approach that would veer his performance away from his previously established norms. The observations have included both observed and statistical data. You've dismissed these observations as having no merit, based on the assumption that the "true talent" marker has been reached for Gomes, which seems to attribute an infallibility to a statistical generalization that, in the real world of baseball, it does not deserve.

All I've done is disagree with you.

Statistical analysis? There really can't be any yet. Observational analysis? Well last May kind of suggest lets wait before begging the question there too.

That this has to be cast as a "battle against an infallible ideology" is actually somewhat of a tell.

Could Gomes be a changed man? Clearly I think players can change. Should we readily accept the conclusion that we should dramatically change our expectations of him going forward? Uh.... that dish needs a lot more proof in the pudding to be ready for the menu. Why? Because it's a pretty rare thing for a guy to hit thirty and undergo a renaissance.

It's not even like I'm stepping out on a limb here. You even admit it. I'm not sure what you're actually having issues with to be honest. We're not swimming in a sea of never before here. At this very early point, it's more like we're embarking upon a trail of tears-one us Reds fans know all too well.

I'm not telling you to give up your love of romance. Just quit chastising me as if its some kind of tell because I prefer different genres-history and biography.

[jojo]

I think it's premature to dismiss it, just as it's premature to proclaim it.

Anything can happen. We have a lot of experience with what most likely will happen. That's not a pejorative to entertain.

[RedsManRick]

Statistical analysis? There really can't be any yet. Observational analysis? Well last May kind of suggest lets wait before begging the question there too.

Jojo, do you really see no difference statistically between a player who experiences a standard BABIP spike and one who is walking at 3 times his career rate?

Yes, both sample sizes are too small to reach any conclusions, but as indicators of true talent, BB% / Swing Rate stabilize much, much more quickly than BABIP.

Are we at the point where we can unequivocally conclude a change has occurred? No. But we are substantially closer to being able to do so now than we were last May.

What I think we've seen is Gomes recognize that pitchers were getting him to chase way too much last year and he was going out of his comfort zone to make contact, sapping him of power. In response he's gone back to a smaller personal zone.

I don't think he's going to keep swinging just 30% of the time. But then again, I don't think pitchers will keep throwing him just 43% strikes. I do think he'll finish the season with a walk rate north of 10% and probably closer to his 2006 figure of 13.2%.

[jojo]

I have no position on whether he has changed or not. I thank you to not assign views to me that I have not taken.

I am allowing for the possibility that people/players can make changes. And that possibility intrigues me. You seem to not be so allowing

That seems like an articulated opinion to me.....


And I don't seen an "argument" from you, I see dismissive "he is what he is" posts. And that's not particularly compelling. And, you have gone down that similar road in the past.

I call shenanigans if you're going to vaguely use that as a premise. You need to back that up with specifics especially since we're talking about Gomes and it's not like this almost identical discussion didn't play out last year.



It's not a good look, whether stat based or not. Sometimes players change. Sometimes they try to change. Infrequently, the attempted change results in a changed performance. The question that has been asked is if this might be happening here. I have no idea, myself, if it will take, but I, at least, allow for the possibility of the unexpected.

I've answered the question by arguing its unlikely. I have not said it is impossible. Again, where is the beef in the beef if it's not simply that my position isn't congruent with the best case scenario for the Reds?


You, at least, appear not to, as your series of posts in this thread have been dismissive of anyone trying to have that conversation and can be summed up as "he ain't gonna change so why bother looking at it".

It actually sounds like disagreeing with an opinion is being defined as being dismissive. By they way, the above statement simply isn't a logical extension of my posts.


If that's what you think, fine. But why spend so much time trying to keep others from looking at the question? That's what I don't get. And, in looking at it, in no way am I (or I think, most people) signing on that there is a definite improvement here that will sustain. Just curious if there can be.

It's not really a question if only one answer is acceptable.

[jojo]

Jojo, do you really see no difference statistically between a player who experiences a standard BABIP spike and one who is walking at 3 times his career rate?

Yes, both sample sizes are too small to reach any conclusions, but as indicators of true talent, BB% / Swing Rate stabilize much, much more quickly than BABIP.

Are we at the point where we can unequivocally conclude a change has occurred? No. But we are substantially closer to being able to do so now than we were last May.

What I think we've seen is Gomes recognize that pitchers were getting him to chase way too much last year and he was going out of his comfort zone to make contact, sapping him of power. In response he's gone back to a smaller personal zone.

I don't think he's going to keep swinging just 30% of the time. But then again, I don't think pitchers will keep throwing him just 43% strikes. I do think he'll finish the season with a walk rate north of 10% and probably closer to his 2006 figure of 13.2%.

So we both agree he is going to regress to his mean. Seriously, that's my position and it's that straightforward.

[757690]

This whole debate reminds me of a female friend I have. She's 32 and wants to get married and have kids.

For the past two years, she's been dating a former college basketball player, five years younger than her, who still loves to go out clubbing and flirts with other girls on a regular basis.

She has caught him either cheating on her or lying to her at least once a month for the past two years. Every time he is caught, he changes his way, becomes very romantic, very loyal and passess all of her tests... until he lies or cheats again. And every time he "changes" she is convinced this time it's for real and that he will propose to her.

It's easy to change over a short period of time. It's nearly impossible for longer than that.

[lollipopcurve]

I've clearly told you that the research exists and its easy to find. Given the snark of the original question, it's perfectly fair to suggest you do some heavy lifting if you indeed are truly curious (especially since finding the answer doesn't really require heavy lifting).

If you really want a shortcut, just search my posts in the archive.

I can find nothing online or in your posts that reveals that there is a certain number of PAs that establishes "true talent." What I can find reveals that "true talent" is really a shifting landscape that can be redrawn often, depending on the player's performance. Which is not the way you use it (to refute others' perceptions of players ipso facto).



All I've done is disagree with you.

Do you disagree that Gomes' approach (i.e., laying off more pitches) has differed? Do you disagree that Gomes' increase in BBs could be the result of either a) a "streak" of seeing the ball well or b) an intentional shift in approach?

I don't think you do. I think you're simply saying, "it doesn't matter."


Statistical analysis? There really can't be any yet.

Stats were posted re: his swing percentage that indicated a strong shift in Gomes' approach.


Could Gomes be a changed man? Clearly I think players can change.

Problem being, you can't accept the possibility that others may see it before you do.


I'm not sure what you're actually having issues with to be honest.

Read on.


I'm not telling you to give up your love of romance. Just quit chastising me as if its some kind of tell because I prefer different genres-history and biography.

This passive-aggressive way of saying, I dwell in truth and you dwell in fantasy.

[jojo]

I can find nothing online or in your posts that reveals that there is a certain number of PAs that establishes "true talent." What I can find reveals that "true talent" is really a shifting landscape that can be redrawn often, depending on the player's performance. Which is not the way you use it (to refute others' perceptions of players ipso facto).




Do you disagree that Gomes' approach (i.e., laying off more pitches) has differed? Do you disagree that Gomes' increase in BBs could be the result of either a) a "streak" of seeing the ball well or b) an intentional shift in approach?

I don't think you do. I think you're simply saying, "it doesn't matter."



Stats were posted re: his swing percentage that indicated a strong shift in Gomes' approach.



Problem being, you can't accept the possibility that others may see it before you do.



Read on.



This passive-aggressive way of saying, I dwell in truth and you dwell in fantasy.

Seriously, just start sending this kind of language via PMs please.

[RedsManRick]

So we both agree he is going to regress to his mean. Seriously, that's my position and it's that straightforward.

I've not seen a single person suggest that he's going to finish the year leading the league in walks. Every thinks he's going to regress. I think the question is one of degree.

I think we're seeing a temporary spike AND a change in approach and that he will regress back towards a higher level than the ~7.5% he's been so far in his time as a Red. You seem to be dismissing the latter nearly out of hand b/c of how hard he regressed from his BABIP spike last May.

Put a number out there -- what walk rate do you think we should expect from him moving forward?

[jojo]

I think the question is one of degree. I think we're seeing a temporary spike AND a change in approach. You seem to be dismissing the latter nearly out of hand.

I'm obviously very skeptical that the mean he'll regress too is substantially different than that of a wOBA=.340-.350. I just have a hard time convincing myself that pitchers won't exploit a 30% swing rate as arms get into full season form.

[jojo]

Put a number out there -- what walk rate do you think we should expect from him moving forward?

One might expect his numbers to be a *tick* above what they were projected to be (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88105&highlight=2010+projected+reds) prior to 13 games ago...

[757690]

In 2009, Willie Taveras, in the month of April, had a walk rate of 1.0, nearly double his career rate. Same thing happened with Corey Patterson in April of 2008. Baseball history if littered with other examples.

Also, when I watch Gomes, I see him just not getting a lot of good pitches to hit early in the count. Maybe he would have swung at some of those earlier, but it's hard to tell right now whether it's him or the pitchers that are most responsible for his increase in walks.

[jojo]

I've not seen a single person suggest that he's going to finish the year leading the league in walks. Every thinks he's going to regress. I think the question is one of degree.

I have not suggested that those who think he's a changed man are arguing he will lead the league in walks.

It absolutely is a question of what to realistically expect from Gomes going forward. Some think Gomes should be significantly better than his true mean has been and some think going forward he'll most likely resemble what his true talent mean has been estimated to be.

It would be a pretty rare thing if Gomes has significantly altered his repeatable true talent level. I've just suggested that 57 PAs isn't enough to buy stock in that start up.

[westofyou]

Whatever happens, he'll still tug on his helmet numerous times at bat, go 1st to 3rd on a single when the chance arises and field goofy.

Currently Gomes also has a swing and miss rate of 8.5%, pretty good Ichiro and Votto are 5% and 7.5%. Guys like Mark Reynolds are around 14.5%.

If Gomes keeps making contact (and outliers in increased OB% are almost universally batting average driven) then his walk rate could stay at an increased rate due to the power factor he brings.

As for changing an approach and increasing ones walk rate the best example to my knowledge is found in Frank Howard who became a BB machine when Ted Williams took over the Senators in 1969.


YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1967 Senators 30 149 519 71 133 20 2 36 6.94 89 60 155 0 1 .256 .511 .338 .849
1968 Senators 31 158 598 79 164 28 3 44 7.36 106 54 141 0 0 .274 .552 .338 .890
1969 Senators 32 161 592 111 175 17 2 48 8.11 111 102 96 1 0 .296 .574 .402 .976
1970 Senators 33 161 566 90 160 15 1 44 7.77 126 132 125 1 2 .283 .546 .416 .962

[lollipopcurve]

Some think Gomes should be significantly better than his true mean has been and some think going forward he'll most likely resemble what his true talent mean has been estimated to be.

Not true. That debate is not happening. People are saying, "Interesting that Gomes is taking a different approach so far this year. Hopefully it continues."

[jojo]

Not true. That debate is not happening. People are saying, "Interesting that Gomes is taking a different approach so far this year. Hopefully it continues."

Then if its not even a discussion, all of the bruhaha about infallibility is even more confusing.

[kaldaniels]

So what would be your plan jojo from today moving forward. Would Gomes be your everyday starter (or at least 75 percent of the time)? Or do you prefer Heisey to be out in left most days? I get that you don't buy into Gomes change as a permanent thing, I don't either on a permanent basis...I need to see more. But I'd sure keep playing the guy.

[jojo]

So what would be your plan jojo from today moving forward. Would Gomes be your everyday starter (or at least 75 percent of the time)? Or do you prefer Heisey to be out in left most days? I get that you don't buy into Gomes change as a permanent thing, I don't either on a permanent basis...I need to see more. But I'd sure keep playing the guy.

I see Gomes as a platoon player who if used in that role could be a valuable piece of their production.

Also there is nothing profound about the position i've taken on his first 13 games. In a lot of ways it's simply the default position.

[kaldaniels]

I see Gomes as a platoon player who if used in that role could be a valuable piece of their production.

Also there is nothing profound about the position i've taken on his first 13 games. In a lot of ways it's simply the default position.

Of course there is nothing profound about your position...it is 13 games. But would you platoon him 50/50, more/less???

[kaldaniels]

Do I dare bring this up. Gomes has 0.9 already for his WAR. Now bear in mind WAR is laughable over such a short period of time. But the fact is he has 0.9 WAR in his back pocket that is going to count towards his end of season total regardless.

[jojo]

Do I dare bring this up. Gomes has 0.9 already for his WAR. Now bear in mind WAR is laughable over such a short period of time. But the fact is he has 0.9 WAR in his back pocket that is going to count towards his end of season total regardless.

That will be adjusted when UZR begins getting added this season.

[jojo]

Of course there is nothing profound about your position...it is 13 games. But would you platoon him 50/50, more/less???

He'd start against all lefties and then get considerably fewer starts against RHers.

[edabbs44]

I have not suggested that those who think he's a changed man are arguing he will lead the league in walks.

It absolutely is a question of what to realistically expect from Gomes going forward. Some think Gomes should be significantly better than his true mean has been and some think going forward he'll most likely resemble what his true talent mean has been estimated to be.

It would be a pretty rare thing if Gomes has significantly altered his repeatable true talent level. I've just suggested that 57 PAs isn't enough to buy stock in that start up.

Maybe the whole "talent level" thing is inaccurate, since maybe we have seen less than his "true talent level" due to a poor approach, injuries and other circumstances.

This isn't like Paul Janish all of a sudden finding an .850 OPS season. JG has had sustained success before.

[kaldaniels]

:D Make it 6 HR.

[edabbs44]

This isn't like May of last year. This isn't even like Mar/April of 2006, right before he injured his shoulder. Kind of similar but the K/BB ratio and BABIP factor is in his favor for this year.

Still unsure that we can categorize this as "we've seen this before".

[membengal]

This isn't like May of last year. This isn't even like Mar/April of 2006, right before he injured his shoulder. Kind of similar but the K/BB ratio and BABIP factor is in his favor for this year.

Still unsure that we can categorize this as "we've seen this before".

That was nice work from you a few pages back, and I am certainly persuaded it appears to be new for Cincy. Curious if he ever had a stretch like it in Tampa with that kind of walk rate, but, yeah, absolutely heartened by his apparent attempt to evolve a bit as a hitter.

[RedsManRick]

That was nice work from you a few pages back, and I am certainly persuaded it appears to be new for Cincy. Curious if he ever had a stretch like it in Tampa with that kind of walk rate, but, yeah, absolutely heartened by his apparent attempt to evolve a bit as a hitter.

He did post a 13.2% BB rate in 2006 in 461 PA.

[membengal]

He did post a 13.2% BB rate in 2006 in 461 PA.

Well, I guess I hope he has found that elixer again for 2011 then.

[Hoosier Red]

Well, I guess I hope he has found that elixer again for 2011 then.

It's like Haley's comet, except it comes 70 years more often.

[OesterPoster]

Jeff Passan's "10 Degrees" with a Jonny Gomes mention:



Gomes hit his sixth home run Sunday. He’s on one of his jags right now where he hits everything hard, and even better, he seems to have picked up a new skill over the winter. Gomes’ walk rate was always decent; this year it’s been insane: a major league-leading 15 free passes against 46 at-bats. His .261/.435/.696 isn’t as gaudy as Joey Votto’s(notes) .444/.544/.667, but then neither is his salary.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Aq1qDOeQrV7uxAa61cYa0z0RvLYF?slug=jp-10_degrees_041711

[edabbs44]

From PDoc today


“The hardest thing in this game to break is a reputation. I was a free swinger. I’ve allowed myself to not live for the moment. I have 15 walks, and six or seven of them I didn’t swing," Gomes said. “If I’m 0-for-2 with two walks this year, I can take it into tomorrow."

Gomes didn’t follow his own rules on Sunday. He did hit his sixth homer. He also swung at the first pitch twice, flying out and grounding to third. It’s a delicate dance a hitter must do. Often, the best pitch he sees in an at-bat is the first one. And yet, making pitchers work is beneficial to the whole team. As Gomes says, “If you have a 10-pitch at-bat, it possibly takes a whole inning off a starter."


http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110417/COL03/304170029/Doc-Gomes-learns-walk-walk?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cs

[OnBaseMachine]

Maybe Gomes is this years version of Jose Bautista. :D I'm still not getting my hopes up yet, but I'm definitely encouraged by his plate approach. I hope it lasts for the whole season and not just a month or two.

[Red Leader]

Yeah, that's my fear is that Jonny goes into a little funk and ditches the whole plan and reverts to his previous approach to get out of the funk. Even though he's getting plenty of playing time, it's got to still be in his head that he's getting pressure from Heisey and to a lesser extent Fred Lewis. When you're not playing free and easy and have pressure, things can break down real quick.

[traderumor]

If he wants to take more pitches, lay off the curve or learn how to foul it off, because he sure can't hit it ;)

[Homer Bailey]

If he wants to take more pitches, lay off the curve or learn how to foul it off, because he sure can't hit it ;)

Really? The HR he hit yesterday was off a breaking ball, and the one hit off Latos was for sure a breaking ball. Since joining the Reds, Fangraphs has him at a slightly above average hitter on curveballs, and slightly below average on sliders.

[Razor Shines]

Yeah, that's my fear is that Jonny goes into a little funk and ditches the whole plan and reverts to his previous approach to get out of the funk. Even though he's getting plenty of playing time, it's got to still be in his head that he's getting pressure from Heisey and to a lesser extent Fred Lewis. When you're not playing free and easy and have pressure, things can break down real quick.

Yes. That's when we're going to find out how much he believes in this new approach.

I love the quotes from Jonny though, it seems as if he's buying in. I really hope he sticks with this new approach even during rough patches.

[Caveman Techie]

Really? The HR he hit yesterday was off a breaking ball, and the one hit off Latos was for sure a breaking ball. Since joining the Reds, Fangraphs has him at a slightly above average hitter on curveballs, and slightly below average on sliders.

It was always my impression (and it could be wrong) that it was the low outside breaking stuff that he would always swing out of his shoes at.

[oneupper]

If he wants to take more pitches, lay off the curve or learn how to foul it off, because he sure can't hit it ;)

Hang one. He'll hit it. :)

[traderumor]

Really? The HR he hit yesterday was off a breaking ball, and the one hit off Latos was for sure a breaking ball. Since joining the Reds, Fangraphs has him at a slightly above average hitter on curveballs, and slightly below average on sliders.Yea, now that you mention it, it is the slider, down and away, doesn't have to be in the strikezone.

[membengal]

From PDoc today



http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110417/COL03/304170029/Doc-Gomes-learns-walk-walk?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cs

Really, really interesting edabbs. Thanks. Had not seen that.

Add one more arrow to the he-really-is-trying-to-change-approach quiver.

[kaldaniels]

That will be adjusted when UZR begins getting added this season.

My bad. His 0.5 UZR to this point puts him up to 1.0 WAR. :D

Small sample size of course, but my point stands, he is 1.0 WAR in the bank.

[jojo]

My bad. His 0.5 UZR to this point puts him up to 1.0 WAR. :D

Small sample size of course, but my point stands, he is 1.0 WAR in the bank.

That war isn't in the bank....it can vanish.

[kaldaniels]

That war isn't in the bank....it can vanish.

Whatever WAR Gomes accumulates (or negatively accumulates) from this pont on, add 1.0 to it and that is his season total. To me that 1.0 is "in the bank". To argue against that is simply contraian.

[jojo]

Whatever WAR Gomes accumulates (or negatively accumulates) from this pont on, add 1.0 to it and that is his season total. To me that 1.0 is "in the bank". To argue against that is simply contraian.

It's not contrarian to point out WAR is essentially a rate stat and his .9 value right now is largely influenced by a UZR value that is unreliable. His war will become more trustworthy as the inputs into WAR begin to stabilize. There is nothing bank about war at this point.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

IMO, a 1.0 WAR will be where Gomes ends up at the end of the season.

His D in LF will outweigh an OPS hovering around .800. And I don't think he will be above .800 when it's all said and done.

[fearofpopvol1]

It was nice while it lasted, but in the month of May, that is nearly halfway over, Gomes has a whopping 2 walks.

Gomes also has an OPS of .491 in the month of May. Should it be Heisey's time to assume more of the LF responsibilities?

[dougdirt]

Gomes also has an OPS of .491 in the month of May. Should it be Heisey's time to assume more of the LF responsibilities?
It should be someones time other than Gomes.

[Cooper]

Something's gotta give with Gomes. He's so completely messed up at the plate. He's getting himself out. I rarely feel sorry for a player, but in this case it's become painful to watch. He needs to sit and then play a couple games against LHers to see if he can get it back.

Heisey and Lewis are a good platoon though Heisy seems to hit better against RHers than lefties. He has a little hitch in his swing that allows him to hit a RHers breaking stuff. That hitch gives him trouble when facing lefties. The lefties ride in on him and he cannot get his hands extended.

[OldXOhio]

Something's gotta give with Gomes. He's so completely messed up at the plate. He's getting himself out. I rarely feel sorry for a player, but in this case it's become painful to watch. He needs to sit and then play a couple games against LHers to see if he can get it back.

Heisey and Lewis are a good platoon though Heisy seems to hit better against RHers than lefties. He has a little hitch in his swing that allows him to hit a RHers breaking stuff. That hitch gives him trouble when facing lefties. The lefties ride in on him and he cannot get his hands extended.

Gomes starting in LF today.

[Will M]

Gomes is at DH & hitting 2nd vs the Indians today. I know Dusty is trying to get Jonny on track but I don't think Jonny is ever going to hit right handed pitching well enough to justify him starting vs a right hander. The team is using him in a role that he just isn't going to succeed at. Now he continues to crush lefties. His role in the bigs is left field/DH vs lefties and bench bat vs righties. He has value in that role. Why the team insists on trying to make him something he is not is puzzling to me.

I suspect something will change prior to ~July 1rst. I would be suprised if we were still seeing Jonny in this role mid season. It seems that the team doesn't view Heisey or Lewis as an everyday starter. Hence the recent mix & match approach to left field. However Sapplet or Alonso could force their way onto the team by mid season.

[PuffyPig]

However Sapplet or Alonso could force their way onto the team by mid season.


Or, perhaps, Frazier. Which would give us another option at 3rd also.

[CTA513]

Votto is now the league leader in walks with 36 and the next guy behind him has 26.
I was surprised to see Pujols 17 behind him with only 19.

[mbgrayson]

Votto is now the league leader in walks with 36 and the next guy behind him has 26.
I was surprised to see Pujols 17 behind him with only 19.

I think Pujols has fallen back in walks because he is hitting fairly poorly (by Pujols standards) and Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman have been hitting well behind him.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Gomes made a rear end out of himself before the game when he acted like he was taking one for the team by DH'ing.

"I'm willing to do it for Dusty and the team. It's something I'm willing to do."

He's WILLING to do it? How 'bout he's lucky to do it. What a joke. Can't take any more Gomes in the lineup. He is killing this team.

[reds44]

It's time for him to be cut.

[The Operator]

Please, Walt! End the madness!

[757690]

I rarely make statements like this, but with every Gomes AB, I'm hoping it's his last.

[CesarGeronimo]

Gomes made a rear end out of himself before the game when he acted like he was taking one for the team by DH'ing.

"I'm willing to do it for Dusty and the team. It's something I'm willing to do."



Jonny being willing to be in the lineup without playing left field and just hitting is like Eric Clapton agreeing to be in a band without playing guitar and just singing. It's an incredible sacrifice by a maestro.

[edabbs44]

Jonny being willing to be in the lineup without playing left field and just hitting is like Eric Clapton agreeing to be in a band without playing guitar and just singing. It's an incredible sacrifice by a maestro.

That's good stuff.

[alloverjr]

I rarely make statements like this, but with every Gomes AB, I'm hoping it's his last.

Walt's not going to release Gomes IMO. Baker has no confidence in Heisey and probably not much more in Lewis. Gomes is going to play 5 days a week for this club IMO like it or not. I just hope to jesus his stint in the 2 hole lasts only one game.

[alloverjr]

Jonny being willing to be in the lineup without playing left field and just hitting is like Eric Clapton agreeing to be in a band without playing guitar and just singing. It's an incredible sacrifice by a maestro.

This made no sense to me so I had to look this up. I didn't know Eric Clapton sang!

[edabbs44]

Gomes made a rear end out of himself before the game when he acted like he was taking one for the team by DH'ing.

"I'm willing to do it for Dusty and the team. It's something I'm willing to do."

He's WILLING to do it? How 'bout he's lucky to do it. What a joke. Can't take any more Gomes in the lineup. He is killing this team.

You sure you got that quote right? Fay's blog has it a bit different.


“It doesn’t help you when you’re looking for hits,” he said. “In this day and age, it’s almost like a position. It’s not like the unathletic guy is made a DH. I think a big part of having success in the DH role is to be willing to DH. I’m willing to DH."

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

Gee, who could have possibly imagined that Johnny Gomes would do absolutely nothing tonight ... despite hitting in one of the most favorable spots in all of baseball (directly in front of Joey Votto)

[Patrick Bateman]

Gomes tried hard this year.

I wish him well.

But his time is at an end.

We have enough options to make him either last man on the bench or off the team. No kore starts.

[Cedric]

Gomes tried hard this year.

I wish him well.

But his time is at an end.

We have enough options to make him either last man on the bench or off the team. No kore starts.

He won't be around much longer. Walt has too much baseball smarts to continue allowing Dusty to ruin a lineup every night.

[Ron Madden]

I wanted the Reds to resign Jonny Gomes.

I thought he'd be a decent RH bat off the bench.

I didn't expect Gomes to be a starting Out Fielder.

I never dreamed Dusty would bat him second vs a RH Pitcher. :(

[edabbs44]

He won't be around much longer. Walt has too much baseball smarts to continue allowing Dusty to ruin a lineup every night.

If Gomes doesn't kick it into gear soon I think you are correct. Moving him to #2 might be a last ditch effort to get him going. But let's not overreact by saying that he ruins the lineup by playing. At worst, he does allow some posters to focus their anger on him while giving a pass to others.

If JG is booted, some other guys better look out.

[Tony Cloninger]

Walt's not going to release Gomes IMO. Baker has no confidence in Heisey and probably not much more in Lewis. Gomes is going to play 5 days a week for this club IMO like it or not. I just hope to jesus his stint in the 2 hole lasts only one game.

Yes he will ...at this pace. And No way does he continue playing and he has not been playing 5 days a week.

[jojo]

If Gomes doesn't kick it into gear soon I think you are correct. Moving him to #2 might be a last ditch effort to get him going. But let's not overreact by saying that he ruins the lineup by playing. At worst, he does allow some posters to focus their anger on him while giving a pass to others.

If JG is booted, some other guys better look out.

Oh come now. Based upon objective projection systems, we knew coming into the season that Gomes was gonna be a hole in left. Guess what? He's been a hole. Gomes isn't a martyr, he just a player with limited use who has played like he is useless.

[Kc61]

If Gomes doesn't kick it into gear soon I think you are correct. Moving him to #2 might be a last ditch effort to get him going. But let's not overreact by saying that he ruins the lineup by playing. At worst, he does allow some posters to focus their anger on him while giving a pass to others.

If JG is booted, some other guys better look out.

Which other guys are you referring to?

Janish? He's playing because of his glove, he doesn't need to "look out".

Anyone else? Bruce is hitting much better.

Gomes is now hitting .176 in 125 official at bats. I don't see an overreaction. To put it mildly, the Reds should be getting a far better offensive performance from LF.

[kbrake]

This is part of what makes Dusty a good manager. I know people hate to hear that but Dusty has been pretty good with this team and he is loyal until the bitter end with guys and I think today will be the end for Gomes. Dusty said last night he already had today's lineup and Gomes was in it. I don't think Gomes will continue to be put out there 5 days a week. I know its not popular here and with Gomes for good reason but this has paid off with Stubbs, Bruce, and Masset twice. This team will be alright but its time to move forward without Gomes. If the organization isn't comfortable with a Heisey/Lewis combination its time to give Yonder a shot or go get a LF that they are comfortable with.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Jonny being willing to be in the lineup without playing left field and just hitting is like Eric Clapton agreeing to be in a band without playing guitar and just singing. It's an incredible sacrifice by a maestro.

Haha! :beerme:

[Blitz Dorsey]

You sure you got that quote right? Fay's blog has it a bit different.


“It doesn’t help you when you’re looking for hits,” he said. “In this day and age, it’s almost like a position. It’s not like the unathletic guy is made a DH. I think a big part of having success in the DH role is to be willing to DH. I’m willing to DH."

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/

Yes, I'm sure I got it right. Gomes said it during the Reds Live pregame show while being interviewed by Jeff Piccoro. Gomes was honestly behaving as if he were "taking one for the team" by DH'ing. I couldn't believe what I was hearing. You would think he had just washed everyone's car on the team by the way he was talking. Hey Jonny, you're not doing anyone any favors by DH'ing. Dusty is doing YOU a favor.

[kaldaniels]

I don't want Gomes anywhere near this lineup right now. But unless I see him make that statement, I can't believe he would say it "egotistically". Everything he has ever said that I've seen is with a "good soldier" attitude. I bet it just came out wrong or was taken out of context.

Having said that, if he was cut today, I would not mind. He is being totally misused.

[mbgrayson]

Yeah, I think we are giving away at bats to put Gomes in the two hole against a right handed pitcher. This weekend, when we face three righties, is the perfect example of why we could use another strong LH bat on the roster.

[RedsManRick]

Take Gomes 2011 and multiply it by 3. You basically have his 2006 season. Just thought that was interesting.



Year G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2006 117 461 385 53 83 21 1 20 59 1 5 61 116 0.216 0.325 0.431 0.757 95
2011*3 120 459 375 57 66 15 0 21 57 15 6 69 117 0.176 0.314 0.384 0.698 93
2011 40 153 125 19 22 5 0 7 19 5 2 23 39 0.176 0.314 0.384 0.698 93

[kaldaniels]

Guess who is batting 2nd today?

[jojo]

Guess who is batting 2nd today?

Taveras?

[edabbs44]

Oh come now. Based upon objective projection systems, we knew coming into the season that Gomes was gonna be a hole in left. Guess what? He's been a hole. Gomes isn't a martyr, he just a player with limited use who has played like he is useless.

We are a third of the way through the season and we "know" that Gomes is/was going to be a hole in LF? Are these the same projection systems that also nailed Janish's offensive performance to date? How about Ramon's? BP's? Stubbs'?

Interesting take on what our projections have told us so far. Taken from your annual preseason projection thread, actual vs projected:

Gomes: .698 vs .774
Ramon: .981 vs .720
Janish: .560 vs .662
BP: .858 vs .756
Stubbs: .796 vs .738

Someone better tell Dusty that Ramon is going to be a hole as well and to stop playing him asap.

[kaldaniels]

Edabbs44...one thing at a time here. What would you do with Gomes?

I've said myself I'd love to have him on the team if used properly, but this is ridiculous.

[alloverjr]

Someone better tell Dusty that Ramon is going to be a hole as well and to stop playing him asap.

He's not playing today, which seems odd. Hanigan in again. Maybe at Bailey's request. Gomes is back in the 2 hole today while Heisey gets banished back to the bench in favor of Lewis.

[Will M]

It sounds like some people are calling for Gomes to be DFAed. IMO he has value as a right handed part of a platoon in left field or DH. Used in this role he is fine. One problem with this role is that it is difficult to find a team that can use this type of player because of the five man bench. Its a big reason I preferred we let Gomes go last off season & used Heisey as a right handed hitter for the left field mix. The team would have had more flexibility with say Heisey/Lewis/Nix than Heisey/Lewis/Gomes. So if Gomes is simply benched or used exclusively vs right handed pitchers then the team still doesn't have a solid solution for left field. I do suspect that there is an AL team that could use Gomes. Maybe we get a PTBNL based on how well he does on the new team. Then call up Alonso for left field. Heisey plays vs some lefty pitchers and comes in for defense. Lewis is a bench bat. Seems a better option than the status quo.

[oneupper]

Gomes hitting second again today.

FAY thinks it's his last go-round.


I talked about this with Marty Brennaman on the air last night, but a lot of people around the club think this is basically Gomes last go-round. If he doesn’t hit in this series, you’ll see him as strictly a platoon player.

[westofyou]

Gomes has seen 580 pitches, swung at 226 of the (35%) and of those he put 92 into play (40%) of those in play, 22 have been hits and 12 of them are EBH.

That's 1 EBH every 10 ab's, which not good for a guy who's other parts of the game are limited. Gomes may have a role as a RH role player, but as of now he's a drag on the team and is completely lost at the dish.

[jojo]

We are a third of the way through the season and we "know" that Gomes is/was going to be a hole in LF?

Clearly projection systems pegged Gomes as a liability and clearly he's been a liability. This was not a mystery.

Are you honestly surprised?

He's probably a better hitter than he's shown thus far assuming his "new" approach hasn't put the final nail in the coffin of his career by robbing him of the limited value he actually did provide (as a platoon DHer and bench role player). But even if he was hitting his projection, he'd be a hole in left.

Again, you honestly think that's not true or that it was impossible to predict????


Are these the same projection systems that also nailed Janish's offensive performance to date? How about Ramon's? BP's? Stubbs'?

Interesting take on what our projections have told us so far. Taken from your annual preseason projection thread, actual vs projected:

Gomes: .698 vs .774
Ramon: .981 vs .720
Janish: .560 vs .662
BP: .858 vs .756
Stubbs: .796 vs .738

Someone better tell Dusty that Ramon is going to be a hole as well and to stop playing him asap.

It's confusing why you're acting like small samples (Ramon doesn't even have 100 PAs) refute projections of a player's true talent level given the several conversations you've participated in where these topics have been discussed especially relating to Gomes, a guy whose shoulder theory didn't hold up, whose changed approach hopes didn't hold up, and on and on etc....

Anyone think Ramon will post an OPS closer to .981 or .720 over is next 200 PAs? Should Dusty bat Hernandez cleanup because that's the logical extension of arguing Ramon is a true talent bat that should be expected to continue OPSing .981.

How about BP? Has he magically transformed into a +30 run bat or is he really just the league average bat he's been the last three seasons who happens to be on a hot streak (not unlike some stretches in each of the last three seasons)?

Calling scoreboard after a little over a quarter of a season obfuscates things though like projection systems suggested a combination Hanigan/Hernandez would be a plus for the Reds, or that Phillips would again be an above average player or that Gomes would be almost exactly a replacement level player in the aggregate.

This was not a mystery.

BTW, here's a link to the projection thread:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88105&highlight=2011+reds+projected

[757690]

Gomes hitting second again today.

FAY thinks it's his last go-round.

Standard Dusty. Gives a player every chance and then some to prove himself before finally giving up. It takes too long, but he finally gets it right.

[oneupper]

He's not playing today, which seems odd. Hanigan in again. Maybe at Bailey's request. Gomes is back in the 2 hole today while Heisey gets banished back to the bench in favor of Lewis.

I think with two straight day games, Hanigan catches Bailey and Hernandez catches Volquez.

[HokieRed]

I'm starting to think some of the responsibility for the continuation of the Gomes absurdity lies with WJ, too. I see no reason anybody in the org. not named Alonso should be DHing in this series.

[edabbs44]

Edabbs44...one thing at a time here. What would you do with Gomes?

I've said myself I'd love to have him on the team if used properly, but this is ridiculous.

I agree with what Fay and Marty are saying...this is Jonny's last stand. And I wouldn't really argue there. He's been given a chance and then some. April/May is too early to be throwing everything against the wall (Alonso, Heisey, Sappelt, Lewis, Frazier, etc). June is a different story. You would think that the babip should start to straighten out and we might see a May 2010 on its way, but I guess at some point you have to pull the plug. It's been 5-6 weeks now. Cannot argue with making a change at this point.

Unless he blows up very soon, he should be moved into a platoon with either Heisey or Lewis and see if either of them take the job and run with it.

[oneupper]

Gomes will be in there for the PHI series, especially if we face Lee or Hamels.

BTW Gomes is 2 for 25 vs. Cliff Lee.

Teams are starting to make these cuts.
Russel Branyan released today.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/05/21/diamondbacks-release-russell-branyan-to-make-room-for-micah-owings/

[edabbs44]

Calling scoreboard after a little over a quarter of a season obfuscates things though like projection systems suggested a combination Hanigan/Hernandez would be a plus for the Reds, or that Phillips would again be an above average player or that Gomes would be almost exactly a replacement level player in the aggregate.

Weren't you calling scoreboard on Gomes? If you agree that it is too early to be doing that, then you kind of proved my point.

[Caveat Emperor]

I'm starting to think some of the responsibility for the continuation of the Gomes absurdity lies with WJ, too. I see no reason anybody in the org. not named Alonso should be DHing in this series.

I'd be shocked if either Alonso or Frazier isn't up and in LF soon, but not before June 1st. It's hard to rip a guy's gig from him, especially a clubhouse "glue guy" like Gomes, in mid-May.

[jojo]

Weren't you calling scoreboard on Gomes? If you agree that it is too early to be doing that, then you kind of proved my point.

Rather than calling scoreboard I'm suggesting arguments that Gomes would consistently be anything other than a needed upgrade in left aren't compelling because his true talent has been pegged. Rather than calling scoreboard, i'm arguing calling scoreboard doesn't change that reality.

[nate]

I think one could reasonably expect this kind of line from Gomes going forward:



Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Last 365days 596 .236 .320 .395 .716


Has anyone run his "with and without mohawk" splits?

[edabbs44]

Rather than calling scoreboard I'm suggesting arguments that Gomes would consistently be anything other than a needed upgrade in left aren't compelling because his true talent has been pegged. Rather than calling scoreboard, i'm arguing calling scoreboard doesn't change that reality.

This isn't calling scoreboard?


Oh come now. Based upon objective projection systems, we knew coming into the season that Gomes was gonna be a hole in left. Guess what? He's been a hole. Gomes isn't a martyr, he just a player with limited use who has played like he is useless.

Or is it only calling scoreboard when the projection isn't accurate?

[jojo]

This isn't calling scoreboard?



Or is it only calling scoreboard when the projection isn't accurate?

Again, staying on point-Gomes was projected to be a hole and he's been a hole. This is not a surprise and Gomes' true talent is no mystery.

Using small sample sizes to argue otherwise is a flawed argument.

[jojo]

Or is it only calling scoreboard when the projection isn't accurate?

It actually was arguing that just because he's been a much larger gaping hole offensively than projected over the young season doesn't mean projections systems haven't captured his true talent level.

Rather than calling scoreboard, the statement you've highlighted largely ignores scoreboard....