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View Full Version : Tonight is a big night for EV



SidneySlicker
04-11-2011, 02:17 PM
Volquez needs to start to prove that he's worthy of a top of the rotation spot. He needs to come out and immediately challege hitters. Quit trying to paint the edges of the zone at the begining of the game. Keep the ball down and rely on your stuff. You have a plus fastball and some decent offspeed. Make the batters earn their bases.

If he can't start to control his pitches then I think they should consider moving him down to the 3rd spot. Arroyo and Wood have shown not only strong pitching, but consistency which is what a contending team needs in order to compete for a pennant like this team is capable of.

I'll get off of my soap box now.

FloridaBuckeye
04-11-2011, 02:23 PM
If his struggles continue, then it will be interesting to see how the rotation changes when we add Bailey and Cueto back in the mix

SidneySlicker
04-11-2011, 02:30 PM
If his struggles continue, then it will be interesting to see how the rotation changes when we add Bailey and Cueto back in the mix

Yep. The scary thing is I dont have a great deal of confidence Bailey or Cueto can separate themselves from Volquez at this point. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I'm begining to lean with people in the corner of finding a top of the rotation arm at the trade deadline and leaving the offense well enough alone. I'd be fine with a solid 2 or 3 who will give quality starts most outings, as I'm not confident there will be a true #1 available or one at a reasonable price anyway.

Oxblood
04-11-2011, 02:42 PM
Complete game 5 hitter. Reds win 2-1

FloridaBuckeye
04-11-2011, 02:43 PM
Yep. The scary thing is I dont have a great deal of confidence Bailey or Cueto can separate themselves from Volquez at this point. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I'm beging to lean with people in the corner of finding a top of the rotation arm at the trade deadline and leaving the offense well enough alone. I'd be fine with a solid 2 or 3 who will give quality starts most outings, as I'm not confident their will be a true #1 available or one at a reasonable price anyway.

Im sure we'd be able to land a quality arm.... we have good young talent and could package something with Yonder Alonso in order to help our pitching staff

SidneySlicker
04-11-2011, 02:52 PM
Complete game 5 hitter. Reds win 2-1

That would be a great start and provide some momentum in getting his pitching back in order.

brm7675
04-11-2011, 03:10 PM
I am still shocked that people think that either Cueto or Bailey will be able to come back and provide any kind of long term help. We are talking arm issues here and both are hard throwers. Bailey's issue clearly means he is heading for major arm issues and with how bad of a motion cueto has, i would be shocked if either see more then 5-6 games this season.

malcontent
04-11-2011, 04:06 PM
Complete game 5 hitter. Reds win 2-1
You may want to consider this alteration of sig-line:

CRACK, THE FOUNDATION

;)

redssince75
04-11-2011, 04:14 PM
Volquez needs to start to prove that he's worthy of a top of the rotation spot. .......

If he can't start to control his pitches then I think they should consider moving him down to the 3rd spot. Arroyo and Wood have shown not only strong pitching, but consistency which is what a contending team needs in order to compete for a pennant like this team is capable of.


Now that we're into a season and a rotation, how the heck would Dusty do this? Skip Volquez's turn to shuffle Arroyo and Wood up two games each on short rest, then drop Volzuez in behind them instead of ahead of them?

Truth is at this point there is no "number one" starter, there are just guys taking their turns in the rotation. Until the All-Star break, the only place to tinker is at the back end (sometimes the #5 guy starts, sometimes he gets skipped, depending on off days and rain outs).

FlightRick
04-11-2011, 04:23 PM
Obviously, I crave a strong outing for Volquez tonight. But if I don't get it, I'm not prepared to panic. Tonight alone shouldn't carry anymore weight with Volquez's status than any other night.

And I may be in the minority, but whatever happens tonight, even after you combine it with what has happened previously this season, doesn't carry enough weight to seriously indicate that Volquez's spot in the rotation is in any danger.

Looking at the numbers, it sure looks like there's something wrong with Volquez so far this year. But looking deeper at the numbers, it seems like there's something specific that's wrong. Something that should be addressable/fixable:

Volquez in the 1st inning: 2 innings pitched, 7 runs (31.50 ERA), 7 hits, 4 walks (5.50 WHIP), and 5 strikeouts (1.25:1 K-to-BB ratio).

Volquez after the 1st inning: 9 IP, 2 R (2.00 ERA), 5 H, 3 BB (0.89 WHIP), 8 K (2.7:1 K-to-BB).

His ability to suck for brief spurts indicates there may be concentration issues. His numbers after he stops sucking indicates that he's still got the arm of a potential ace. You don't give up on that combination after 3 games.

Between last year's story arc of slow-starting followed by ace-like numbers in September and this spring's story of Volquez falling behind due to visa issues, time should more than be on EV's side. The arm is there, and the mental part of the game should follow...


Rick

SidneySlicker
04-11-2011, 04:30 PM
Obviously, I crave a strong outing for Volquez tonight. But if I don't get it, I'm not prepared to panic. Tonight alone shouldn't carry anymore weight with Volquez's status than any other night.

And I may be in the minority, but whatever happens tonight, even after you combine it with what has happened previously this season, doesn't carry enough weight to seriously indicate that Volquez's spot in the rotation is in any danger.

Looking at the numbers, it sure looks like there's something wrong with Volquez so far this year. But looking deeper at the numbers, it seems like there's something specific that's wrong. Something that should be addressable/fixable:

Volquez in the 1st inning: 2 innings pitched, 7 runs (31.50 ERA), 7 hits, 4 walks (5.50 WHIP), and 5 strikeouts (1.25:1 K-to-BB ratio).

Volquez after the 1st inning: 9 IP, 2 R (2.00 ERA), 5 H, 3 BB (0.89 WHIP), 8 K (2.7:1 K-to-BB).

His ability to suck for brief spurts indicates there may be concentration issues. His numbers after he stops sucking indicates that he's still got the arm of a potential ace. You don't give up on that combination after 3 games.

Between last year's story arc of slow-starting followed by ace-like numbers in September and this spring's story of Volquez falling behind due to visa issues, time should more than be on EV's side. The arm is there, and the mental part of the game should follow...


Rick

I never said that I though Volquez should get dropped out of the lineup, just down in the order of pitching. If he continues pitching the way he has, then he should be dropped down. I don't think he gives this team a chance against other 1's and 2's despite the Reds offense.

I've always believed he's had the "stuff" to be a #1, but at what point do you call a spade a spade? He's always suffered from mental lapses where he blows up.

bshall2105
04-11-2011, 04:32 PM
I am still shocked that people think that either Cueto or Bailey will be able to come back and provide any kind of long term help. We are talking arm issues here and both are hard throwers. Bailey's issue clearly means he is heading for major arm issues and with how bad of a motion cueto has, i would be shocked if either see more then 5-6 games this season.

I'm still shocked that you're still questioning Cueto. He has shown solid improvement each year in the bigs. He was our second most consistent starter behind Arroyo last season, and he had an ERA well under 4 last year. And finally that has to be the biggest over reaction to an injury I've ever seen, he has started over 30 games the last 3 years!!!!

swaisuc
04-11-2011, 04:47 PM
I am still shocked that people think that either Cueto or Bailey will be able to come back and provide any kind of long term help. We are talking arm issues here and both are hard throwers. Bailey's issue clearly means he is heading for major arm issues and with how bad of a motion cueto has, i would be shocked if either see more then 5-6 games this season.

Pretty obvious hyperbole here.

I think the facts of the situation all point to 20+ starts from Cueto barring a new injury. I can at least see where you're coming from on Bailey due to his injury track record, but 5-6 is still an extremely pessimistic view the way things stand today.

Cueto starting on the DL is simply a case of the Reds babying their young investment with their eyes on the long haul IMO.

Roush's socks
04-11-2011, 05:06 PM
Nobody knows right now how bad Cueto's issues are. He could come back and have a great season or he could he headed to TJ surgery. He has been durable over the years so I think he has a better chance than Bailey. Either way, if LeCure can hold down the #5 spot then they might not be in a rush to bring either one back.

Todd Gack
04-11-2011, 05:29 PM
This might be a big night, I don't know. But at the same time, I'm not worried about the guy yet. I just want to see improvement. If you take away both first innings of his starts, he's actually done well (as has probably been pointed out multiple times.) I think him getting into camp late has a lot to do with his struggles thus far so I'm willing to give him his due.

brm7675
04-11-2011, 06:18 PM
I'm still shocked that you're still questioning Cueto. He has shown solid improvement each year in the bigs. He was our second most consistent starter behind Arroyo last season, and he had an ERA well under 4 last year. And finally that has to be the biggest over reaction to an injury I've ever seen, he has started over 30 games the last 3 years!!!!

Your arm doesn't have the pain he is having if there isn't issues. Given his motion and that he flars when he pitches, haveing arm issues isn't or should not be a surprised. Again I will be shocked if arm problems don't derail this season for him...

brm7675
04-11-2011, 06:20 PM
Pretty obvious hyperbole here.

I think the facts of the situation all point to 20+ starts from Cueto barring a new injury. I can at least see where you're coming from on Bailey due to his injury track record, but 5-6 is still an extremely pessimistic view the way things stand today.

Cueto starting on the DL is simply a case of the Reds babying their young investment with their eyes on the long haul IMO.

He couldn't throw without pain, they had no choice. Again pitching especially hard throwers are bound for arm issues at somepoint because the body just isn't ment to do that and unless you are very lucky, you will be going under the knife at somepoint and i think it's just silly to think a brief "rest" is going to solve arm issues...

Maker_84
04-11-2011, 06:22 PM
there will be no coming back in this game if Volquez gets shelled again early on

FlightRick
04-11-2011, 08:04 PM
I never said that I though Volquez should get dropped out of the lineup, just down in the order of pitching. If he continues pitching the way he has, then he should be dropped down. I don't think he gives this team a chance against other 1's and 2's despite the Reds offense.

In that case, the guy who posted just before me pretty much has pre-made my response for me. Once you get a few off days or rain outs worked into the schedule, there really is no such thing as a "#1 starter"... by May 1, it's just 5 guys pitching every fifth day. Our "#1" has just as much of a chance of facing another team's #3 (or 2, or 4, or 5) as he does of facing their #1. Change Volquez to our #3, and he has just as much of a chance of STILL facing the #1 or #2 on other teams as he does facing their #3 or #4. It's just the way of things.

I mean, tonight, Volquez is facing off against Latos, who may be SD's #1 starter (it's between him and Richard), but who has been on the DL all season, and is pitching tonight in a slot that would have been SD's #4 starter (Stauffer) if Latos hadn't been cleared to return tonight. So is it Our #1 vs. Their #1, and now SD's #4 is their #2, and the guy who had been their #1 until tonight drops down to #3, and proof that those match-ups always line-up? No. It's "Our Guy Who Started on Opening Day" against "Their Guy Who Might Have Started on Opening Day, But Tonight is Coming Off the DL in the Spot Previously Occupied by the Guy Who Started Their 4th Game."

If that previous paragraph is mind-bendingly complicated, I apologize. But it sort of HAS to be complicated, because if you started trying to always pair our pitchers up against their counterparts on other teams, you'd have to shuffle the rotation for EVERY SINGLE SERIES, since different teams will all be in different spots in their order, and you'd have your own guys pitching on the wrong days and getting all screwed up and it'd be incredibly complicated (even more so than the paragraph above) to try to make sure Volquez never faces anybody but the other team's #3. Or make sure that our hot hand always faces the other team's hot hand. Or whatever. Not worth the trouble.

Maybe use the All-Star Break to tweak things, if you want... or if you see a particularly huge series coming up against a division rival, skip ONE guy ONE time in order to set your rotation in a favorable manner for that ONE series. But more realistically, the next time there's a legit strategic reason for trying to change the order of your rotation, it's gonna be October, and we'll be debating who should be our #1 in the NLDS. THAT is when it'll matter...


Rick

gilpdawg
04-12-2011, 06:05 AM
In that case, the guy who posted just before me pretty much has pre-made my response for me. Once you get a few off days or rain outs worked into the schedule, there really is no such thing as a "#1 starter"... by May 1, it's just 5 guys pitching every fifth day.
Rick
I've posted that very same thing on there on numerous occasions, but nobody seems to listen. Heck, our "fifth" starter follows our opening day starter. Does that mean that Sam LeCure is our number two starter? Nope. It doesn't matter.

BigJohn
04-12-2011, 07:18 AM
Baker had to remove Volquez after he twisted his right big toe.

How bad?

gilpdawg
04-12-2011, 08:09 AM
Volquez said after the game that it was no big deal.

Girevik
04-12-2011, 08:31 AM
Baker had to remove Volquez after he twisted his right big toe.

How bad?

You can't pitch without Sgt. Hulka!!

SidneySlicker
04-12-2011, 09:13 AM
I've posted that very same thing on there on numerous occasions, but nobody seems to listen. Heck, our "fifth" starter follows our opening day starter. Does that mean that Sam LeCure is our number two starter? Nope. It doesn't matter.

Understood. When I talk about pitcher slotting its based on the standpoint of who they are being matched up against more than what day they are pitching. I thought EV did a great job staying ahead in the count and keeping the ball down after the first inning. I think he's just cooming out a little too amped for the first pitch and starts overthrowing rather than staying loose and trusting his stuff. Hopefully time will cure this because he has dominant #1 stuff.

lonewolf371
04-12-2011, 09:16 AM
Understood. When I talk about pitcher slotting its based on the standpoint of who they are being matched up against more than what day they are pitching. I thought EV did a great job staying ahead in the count and keeping the ball down after the first inning. I think he's just cooming out a little too amped for the first pitch and starts overthrowing rather than staying loose and trusting his stuff. Hopefully time will cure this because he has dominant #1 stuff.
I don't think managers consider who a guy is matched up against. They consider how recently the guy has pitched, and what type of beating his arm can take. The other team's guy on the mound has nothing to do with it. Will you probably lose games when you put your #5 out against their #1? Yeah, but that also means that you'll probably put your #1 out against someone else's #5 in another game and it all balances out.

gilpdawg
04-13-2011, 07:36 AM
Understood. When I talk about pitcher slotting its based on the standpoint of who they are being matched up against more than what day they are pitching.
I know that's what you were talking about. I just don't agree with that theory. I just don't believe that you can (or should, because it could be counter-productive if you're bringing guys back on short rest and stuff like that) set up a rotation to play matchups because team's rotations aren't static.