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View Full Version : Is Chapman to the rotation possible in 2011?



Pony Boy
04-13-2011, 04:48 PM
Chapman's performance last night renewed my hope that he will eventually move into the rotation. It was only three batters, but he flashed being a pitcher that can be effective without relying on a 100+ fastball.

I checked out MLB.com's pitch-by-pitch tracking of Chapman's outing and I was surprised to see that, according to MLB.com, 5 of his 11 pitches were listed as changeups, all sitting at 92-94 mph. Is MLB correct? Price said he was not going to throw his changeup often if at all during games.

So setting aside the question of whether there is any chance that the Reds will move him into the rotation in 2011 for a moment, my question is what would be the best way to make the transition in season? Move him into a longman role for a month or 2? Send him to AAA for a few starts? What is the track record for teams moving a reliever to the rotation mid-season?

Sean_CaseyRules
04-13-2011, 05:10 PM
My only question is, who do you take out?

Leake has had 2 good starts (IMO Dusty left him in too long when he gave up the 3-Run HR).

LeCure and Arroyo have been studs.

Wood had one REALLY good game, and one REALLY bad game, too early to send him out.

And Edinson has terrible 1st innings, and then shows why he can/will be our ACE.

I like Chapman in the pen right now. He's doing a helluva job, and why not keep it going. BTW, we still have Homer and Cueto coming back from injuries. There's just no room for Chapman in the rotation this year, as of right now.

krm1580
04-13-2011, 05:37 PM
While I would love to see him as a starter, I don't see them making Chapman a starter any time soon if ever. They have a lot of starting options already and with Cordero gone at the end of this season I think the writing is kind of on the wall he is going to be the closer.

My take on last night is they are trying to get him dial back a bit to harness his control. His walk rate has been terrible so far this year and I think they are trying to get him to understand 98 on the black is better than 102 out of the strike zone.

The other thing is I think his stuff straightens out as it hits higher speeds. Watching him in the playoffs last year against the Phillies and his appearance in Houston this year I am really surprised that right handers get pretty good cuts against him even when he hits triple digits.

Pony Boy
04-13-2011, 05:43 PM
We may have a lot of pitchers, but we certainly don't have a lot of top of the rotation pitchers. The Reds are 21st in the majors in team ERA. The Reds' top priority should be to find a staff ace. If one or two don't emerge from the 7 candidates currently on the roster within the next month or two, then they would be foolish to not look at Chapman as a starter.

Sean_CaseyRules
04-13-2011, 05:52 PM
We may have a lot of pitchers, but we certainly don't have a lot of top of the rotation pitchers. The Reds are 21st in the majors in team ERA. The Reds' top priority should be to find a staff ace. If one or two don't emerge from the 7 candidates currently on the roster within the next month or two, then they would be foolish to not look at Chapman as a starter.

Who takes his spot in the pen then?

I guess Willis could, but I doubt he'd be as dominate in there as Chapman would be.

I still think we should leave the starters alone, for now, at least. They are doing a fine job right now.

Simon Rhymon
04-13-2011, 05:53 PM
I'd rather see him stay in the bullpen. From what I have read about his history in Cuba, it sounded like he lost concentration at times in the middle of games. He'd be breezing and all of a sudden give up 3 or 4 runs, but then regain his composure and be dominant again. If that's true, that characteristic would seem to lend itself to suggesting short stints would be the better option. My memory may not be totally accurate in what I remember reading awhile ago, but that was the impression I was left with at the time.

krm1580
04-13-2011, 06:05 PM
We may have a lot of pitchers, but we certainly don't have a lot of top of the rotation pitchers. The Reds are 21st in the majors in team ERA. The Reds' top priority should be to find a staff ace. If one or two don't emerge from the 7 candidates currently on the roster within the next month or two, then they would be foolish to not look at Chapman as a starter.

Pony, I completely agree with you. His ceiling as a starter is higher than anybody else on the staff and if he were to reach that and become a Randy Johnson type guy it would be huge for this team.

I just think the Reds take is they have a good offense with solid starting pitching and if they can get through 6 with the lead, their bullpen will slam the door. And I think that strategy will work really well....in the regular season. I think they need dominant starting pitching to win World Series, especially if they need to go through staffs like they have in Philly and SF.

The DARK
04-13-2011, 06:08 PM
I think he'll be a full-time bullpen arm in 2011. He has to get used to MLB hitting and a full season before he can think of making that transition. And as sparingly as he gets used being in the bullpen, he still has a hard time throwing 100%. He simply needs to build up that durability before he tries to make that transition in 2012.

However, if the Reds are either out of contention or have clinched before the end of the season, I wouldn't be surprised for him to get a start or two there at the end.

The DARK
04-13-2011, 07:06 PM
My bad. Double post.

Natty Redlocks
04-13-2011, 08:25 PM
Chapman/ Bailey for Felix. Doitdoitdoitdoit

ruREaDy2
04-13-2011, 08:50 PM
Chapman/ Bailey for Felix. Doitdoitdoitdoit

No way. Chapman could very well turn into the modern day Randy Johnson. Bailey should continue to blossom into a reliable #3 starter.

Chris Sabowned
04-13-2011, 09:58 PM
As good as Chapman is as a reliever, I would much rather have him for ~200 innings a year instead of just ~70 innings a year.

Natty Redlocks
04-14-2011, 04:38 PM
No way. Chapman could very well turn into the modern day Randy Johnson. Bailey should continue to blossom into a reliable #3 starter.

Wow, I expected to be ridiculed for thinking Seattle makes that trade. Nobody knows what Chapman or Bailey will be; everyone knows Hernandez is possibly the best pitcher in baseball.

LeDoux
04-14-2011, 04:45 PM
Wow, I expected to be ridiculed for thinking Seattle makes that trade. Nobody knows what Chapman or Bailey will be; everyone knows Hernandez is possibly the best pitcher in baseball.

They may be some money and player control issues you may be overlooking.

Girevik
04-14-2011, 05:13 PM
How much time would Chapman have to spend in the minors streching out his arm to start again? I think he's too valuable to the Reds to have in in Lousiville for an extended period of time. He's a releiver this year.

LeDoux
04-14-2011, 06:10 PM
How much time would Chapman have to spend in the minors streching out his arm to start again? I think he's too valuable to the Reds to have in in Lousiville for an extended period of time. He's a releiver this year.

I really don't think he would need to be sent down to Louisville in order to be stretched out. Start by having him pitch 2 consecutive innings with 2 days off, then 3 with 3, then 4 with 4. There should be plenty of opportunities for 4 inning outings when Cueto and Bailey return. This would drop Chapman out of a setup role, and it would have him pitching in some save situations, but I think it would be worth it.

Reds
04-14-2011, 06:25 PM
"Around the Horn" thinks Dusty is overusing/too often using Chapman. Michael Smith said it was like trying to take a Lambo on a cross country drive.

Kingspoint
04-14-2011, 08:30 PM
"Around the Horn" thinks Dusty is overusing/too often using Chapman. Michael Smith said it was like trying to take a Lambo on a cross country drive.

Four out of five days is too much to use a guy who throws the way he throws the ball, which is what Baker's done with Chapman from Saturday through Wednesday.

Dr. K confirmed he has inflammation in the arm and that the REDS will shut him down for a few days.

Ramon Hernandez also thinks that pitching him in back-to-back days puts an abnormal strain on his arm more than it does on a normal pitcher's because of how hard Chapman throws.

Masset and Cordero were both overused, especially in April and May, last year. Now, Masset is struggling badly, while Cordero struggled badly last September/October. Go figure.

bigredmechanism
04-14-2011, 11:58 PM
Four out of five days is too much to use a guy who throws the way he throws the ball.


Agree with that.

Also, can people quit calling it a changeup? It was his fastball; he never throws changeups. To my recollection, he hasn't thrown one in his MLB career. All of a sudden, 3 days ago, he decides to only go to changeup/slider? No way.

Something is wrong, and it may be the workload. I'm surprised that this isn't a big deal to some of people, because I don't like it one bit.

R_Webb18
04-15-2011, 12:04 AM
i dont really know the answer to this question but if chapman was put as a starter now would he be ready this year? They tried it last year it was not going as fast as they thought so why would that change now? Also if he has wild days he could go like 2 innings don't this concern people? yes he can throw 105 but if throws it 2 feet off the plate and walks 8 people it does us no good? once again I have no clue on how this change works.

Girevik
04-15-2011, 10:03 AM
I really don't think he would need to be sent down to Louisville in order to be stretched out. Start by having him pitch 2 consecutive innings with 2 days off, then 3 with 3, then 4 with 4. There should be plenty of opportunities for 4 inning outings when Cueto and Bailey return. This would drop Chapman out of a setup role, and it would have him pitching in some save situations, but I think it would be worth it.

I don't think there's anyway you could do that in the bigs. When you use your pen is based totally on game situations. You don't want to be forced to make a change becuse you need to get a guy work to strech him out. Plus that basically makes you a man short in the pen for as long as it takes to get him in shape.

Pony Boy
04-15-2011, 11:15 AM
I don't think there's anyway you could do that in the bigs. When you use your pen is based totally on game situations. You don't want to be forced to make a change becuse you need to get a guy work to strech him out. Plus that basically makes you a man short in the pen for as long as it takes to get him in shape.

I agree. You might be able to start pitching him two innings in a row with 2 or 3 days of rest in between, but anymore than that and you start planning your game around stretching him out.

I think the best, and maybe only way, to make the transition within the season is to send him to AAA for 2 or 3 starts. Let him throw 50-60 pitches in his first start and increase by 10 pitches for the next two starts.