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View Full Version : Who would have thought that Mike Leake would be the team's ACE through April?



Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 01:00 PM
Our best starting pitcher, the ACE of our staff, is going tonight to show once again why he's the best pitcher on this starting staff through April.

Everybody wear a T-shirt to the game.

Make it T-shirt night.

brm7675
04-26-2011, 01:09 PM
Why do you feel he has been the ACE? Please tell me it's not just because of his record?

signalhome
04-26-2011, 01:15 PM
Leake (3.84 FIP) and Arroyo (3.58 FIP) have both pitched really well. However, I'll give the edge to Bronson since he sports a better K/9 and a better BB/9.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 01:15 PM
Why do you feel he has been the ACE? Please tell me it's not just because of his record?His OPS Against mainly, and his innings pitched per game.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 01:17 PM
Leake (3.84 FIP) and Arroyo (3.58 FIP) have both pitched really well. However, I'll give the edge to Bronson since he sports a better K/9 and a better BB/9.

Arroyo's OPS-Against is an absolutely horrible .810.

Leake's is a very, very good .650.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 01:22 PM
And, at a time when the REDS needed it the most, Leake, in his last start, earned a 7-4 victory over Arizona last Thursday after going seven innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits while striking out seven. He retired 16 of the last 17 batters he faced, including his last eight, and threw first-pitch strikes to 17 of 27.

Wins do matter, though Felix Hernandez couldn't get any last season.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 01:25 PM
Arroyo digs in and gets the pitch when he needs it, though. That's how "Aces" do it. So, Arroyo could be the Ace, too, when you add that FIP in there and some other things.

Actually, Sam LeCure pitched better than anyone, to be honest.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 01:32 PM
Leake has had 9.3 runs scored for him per game. (5.1) (2010 runs scored per game in Parentheses)

Arroyo 5.9. (4.8)
Volquez 5.1. (5.2)
LeCure 4.3. (4.5)
Wood 3.3. (4.8)


Kyle Lohse (.440 OPS-Against!!!; and, 6.4 Runs scored per game for him)
Aaron Harang (.564 OPS-Against!!!; and, 5.0 Runs scored per game for him)

Krawhitham
04-26-2011, 01:34 PM
Our best starting pitcher, the ACE of our staff, is going tonight to show once again why he's the best pitcher on this starting staff through April.

Everybody wear a T-shirt to the game.

Make it T-shirt night.

I think you meant Arroyo has been the ACE in April

for starters

He has 3 wins which leads the team
He has the lowest ERA
He has the most innings pitched
He has the fewest walks

Leake has close to a 5 ERA, not what anyone would call ACE stuff

Grouse
04-26-2011, 02:18 PM
We don't have an Ace, or a # 2 man IMO.

bounty37h
04-26-2011, 02:19 PM
We don't have an Ace, or a # 2 man IMO.

Countdown to BRM post of "what is an ace" 3, 2,.....

krm1580
04-26-2011, 02:20 PM
"It always fun to pitch when you get that many runs early. It makes it that much easier to pitch with less effort." Bronson Arroyo

Mike Leake has pitched with large leads almost the entire season. In fact the 11-2 win at Pittsburgh was the only game he pitched all season where the Reds did not score at least 4 runs in the first 2 innings.

You can throw out whatever stats you like, when you have a "command guy" that is walking nearly 4 guys per 9 in situations that would dictate he should go right after people I really don't have a lot of confidence in him making pitches in close games. And as such I would not label him an ace by any stretch.

If on the other hand he is some sort of lucky talisman that causes the offense to score 9 runs a game when he starts play him at SS on the days he does not start.:D

signalhome
04-26-2011, 03:31 PM
Arroyo's OPS-Against is an absolutely horrible .810.

Leake's is a very, very good .650.

True, but a lot of that has been influenced by BABIP. Arroyo's is .323 while Leake's is .265. That's a pretty wide split, especially when you consider hitters are hitting line drives at a rate of 22.4% against Leake and only 18.8% against Arroyo; Leake has been extremely fortunate with his BABIP while Arroyo has been unlucky. K/9 and BB/9, the two things the pitcher has the most control over, are much more in Arroyo's favor.

signalhome
04-26-2011, 03:35 PM
Arroyo digs in and gets the pitch when he needs it, though. That's how "Aces" do it. So, Arroyo could be the Ace, too, when you add that FIP in there and some other things.

Actually, Sam LeCure pitched better than anyone, to be honest.

I do agree that LeCure has arguably pitched better than anyone on the team. If you just look at ERA or even FIP, you may think he's been pretty bad. However, his numbers are greatly inflated due to an unbelievable 21.1% HR/FB. Batters are only hitting line drives off him at a 9.1% rate (which supports the .214 BABIP on the year, though the line drive rate will certainly normalize to an extent), he's striking out 8.83 per 9, and is sporting a 2.08 BB/9. That's pretty impressive stuff, and it's why his xFIP (which normalizes HR/FB) is 3.05.

signalhome
04-26-2011, 03:38 PM
And, at a time when the REDS needed it the most, Leake, in his last start, earned a 7-4 victory over Arizona last Thursday after going seven innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits while striking out seven. He retired 16 of the last 17 batters he faced, including his last eight, and threw first-pitch strikes to 17 of 27.

Wins do matter, though Felix Hernandez couldn't get any last season.

Chris Carpenter has given up 2, 1, 8, 0, and 2 ER in his five starts this season. He has an 0-2 record to show for it, even though he has pitched very well in four games. Wins is the most overblown statistic in baseball.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 06:11 PM
I think you meant Arroyo has been the ACE in April

for starters

He has 3 wins which leads the team
He has the lowest ERA
He has the most innings pitched
He has the fewest walks

Leake has close to a 5 ERA, not what anyone would call ACE stuff

I care a lot less about ERA than I do about OPS-Against. I'm more interested in how much a guy has been getting pounded, and Bronson Arroyo has been getting pounded and Mike Leake has not.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 06:12 PM
We don't have an Ace, or a # 2 man IMO.

That's so true.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 06:14 PM
And as such I would not label him an ace by any stretch.



Never said anything about him being a "real" ACE, just pitching as the best pitcher of the REDS so far in April. He gives up fewer total bases per nine innings than any other starter, and nobody else is even a close second.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 06:16 PM
I do agree that LeCure has arguably pitched better than anyone on the team. If you just look at ERA or even FIP, you may think he's been pretty bad. However, his numbers are greatly inflated due to an unbelievable 21.1% HR/FB. Batters are only hitting line drives off him at a 9.1% rate (which supports the .214 BABIP on the year, though the line drive rate will certainly normalize to an extent), he's striking out 8.83 per 9, and is sporting a 2.08 BB/9. That's pretty impressive stuff, and it's why his xFIP (which normalizes HR/FB) is 3.05.

He needs more starts because he's earned them.

He's giving the team a chance to take their time with Cueto and Bailey and Willis.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 06:20 PM
Chris Carpenter has given up 2, 1, 8, 0, and 2 ER in his five starts this season. He has an 0-2 record to show for it, even though he has pitched very well in four games. Wins is the most overblown statistic in baseball.

I think Wins are overblown on a one, two or three-year basis, but over the course of more than that, it becomes pretty obvious when a pitcher is able to pitch "well-enough" to win. If he's a 4.50 ERA pitcher normally, a smart pitcher can get you the 3.00 ERA on a night when his team scores just 4 runs, or a 2.50 ERA on a night when his team scores just 3 runs, and then he has a 6.00 ERA on a night where his team scores 7 runs. There are plenty of pitchers like that. Bronson is one of them.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 06:24 PM
I do expect Mike Leake to be consistent tonight with his OPS-Against, even though it's in the GAB AND it's the Brewers' Offense. I'd be surprised if he has an Arroyo-esque [or Wood-esque or Volquez-esque (.875)] OPS-Against above 8.00 tonight.

I'll post here Leake's OPS-Against tonight and see if it doesn't translate into a performance where his ERA is below 4.00, because his current ERA (about 5.00) doesn't correlate to how many total bases he's been giving up per nine innings.

FYI, only 4 of 12 baserunners have scored that have been left on base by the Starters this season. I think that's a decent number. 2 of 6 have scored off of Wood, 1 of 2 off of Volquez, 1 of 3 off of Arroyo, 0 of 1 off of Leake, and LeCure hasn't left a game with runners on base (another mark of a good pitcher, or bad, I suppose, if they'd crushed a three-run homer).

Reds
04-26-2011, 06:32 PM
I consider Arroyo our ace because I feel like he's the most mature, smartest, and is responsible for eating the most innings with the absence of Harang. Arroyo has never missed a start in the majors, I dig that. Leake, once again, is off to a good start though.

signalhome
04-26-2011, 06:44 PM
I think Wins are overblown on a one, two or three-year basis, but over the course of more than that, it becomes pretty obvious when a pitcher is able to pitch "well-enough" to win. If he's a 4.50 ERA pitcher normally, a smart pitcher can get you the 3.00 ERA on a night when his team scores just 4 runs, or a 2.50 ERA on a night when his team scores just 3 runs, and then he has a 6.00 ERA on a night where his team scores 7 runs. There are plenty of pitchers like that. Bronson is one of them.

So you're trying to say that certain pitchers actively decide to pitch better or worse depending on the score of the game? Why would anyone do that? This argument has never made sense to me. What makes much more sense is that pitchers who get good run support get more wins than pitchers who don't. Roger Clemens went 20-3 while sporting a 3.51 ERA in 2001 because the Yankees had a 5.9 RS/IP (runs scored/27 outs while player is pitching) for him. In 2005, he only went 13-8 even though his ERA was a mind-numbing 1.87 because the Astros only had a 3.0 RS/IP for him. Clemens didn't just turn into a dumb pitcher once he went to the Astros -- he went to a team with a significantly worse offense, and as a result, his Wins suffered for it. In seasons where he received 4.0 RS/IP or worse (seven seasons), his W/L% was 0.516 (63-59); when he received >4.0 RS/IP (seventeen seasons), his W/L% was 0.700 (291-125). That's a big difference.

brm7675
04-26-2011, 06:47 PM
He needs more starts because he's earned them.

He's giving the team a chance to take their time with Cueto and Bailey and Willis.

Willis who?

signalhome
04-26-2011, 07:06 PM
I do expect Mike Leake to be consistent tonight with his OPS-Against, even though it's in the GAB AND it's the Brewers' Offense. I'd be surprised if he has an Arroyo-esque [or Wood-esque or Volquez-esque (.875)] OPS-Against above 8.00 tonight.

I'll post here Leake's OPS-Against tonight and see if it doesn't translate into a performance where his ERA is below 4.00, because his current ERA (about 5.00) doesn't correlate to how many total bases he's been giving up per nine innings.

FYI, only 4 of 12 baserunners have scored that have been left on base by the Starters this season. I think that's a decent number. 2 of 6 have scored off of Wood, 1 of 2 off of Volquez, 1 of 3 off of Arroyo, 0 of 1 off of Leake, and LeCure hasn't left a game with runners on base (another mark of a good pitcher, or bad, I suppose, if they'd crushed a three-run homer).

30.1% of Arroyo's batters have reached base as opposed to 30.7% of Leake's. As I already touched on, it's very fluky that Leake hasn't allowed more, as he has given up a very high percentage of line drives yet maintains a very low BABIP. The biggest thing that separates their OPS against is 2B%. Leake has only allowed 3 doubles on the year in 101 PA as opposed to Arroyo's 15 doubles in 130 PA. While this is to be somewhat expected since Arroyo has allowed a much greater number of fly balls, the fact that Leake has given up so many line drives says that he should have given up more than three doubles in the season. Only two of Leake's 15 liners have been extra-base hits (13.3%). Arroyo, on the other hand, has allowed four doubles on his 18 liners (22.2%). When you look at fliners (a mix of fly ball and line drive), you'll find that Arroyo has given up quite a few more thanks to his higher FB rate, but again, a higher percentage of Arroyo's fliners have been XBH (9 out of 28, 32.1%) than have Leake's (3 out of 13, 23.1%).

Leake and Arroyo have both pitched well, but a bit of luck has been on Leake's side.

brm7675
04-26-2011, 07:12 PM
To me the problem is that Leake and Bronson are very similar style of pitchers, I would hope if and when Bailey returns he gets sandwiched in between those two.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 07:57 PM
So you're trying to say that certain pitchers actively decide to pitch better or worse depending on the score of the game?
They are able to dig down deeper and get to another level that's beyond their normal capabilities. It's a warrior attitude. Men like this have been around for millenniums.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 08:02 PM
So you're trying to say that certain pitchers actively decide to pitch better or worse depending on the score of the game? Why would anyone do that? This argument has never made sense to me. What makes much more sense is that pitchers who get good run support get more wins than pitchers who don't. Roger Clemens went 20-3 while sporting a 3.51 ERA in 2001 because the Yankees had a 5.9 RS/IP (runs scored/27 outs while player is pitching) for him. In 2005, he only went 13-8 even though his ERA was a mind-numbing 1.87 because the Astros only had a 3.0 RS/IP for him. Clemens didn't just turn into a dumb pitcher once he went to the Astros -- he went to a team with a significantly worse offense, and as a result, his Wins suffered for it. In seasons where he received 4.0 RS/IP or worse (seven seasons), his W/L% was 0.516 (63-59); when he received >4.0 RS/IP (seventeen seasons), his W/L% was 0.700 (291-125). That's a big difference.You can't pick an individual season to make a point. That's the point. One season of wins or losses makes no difference.

You also can't pick "seasons below 4 runs of support" or "seasons above 4 runs of support" as each one of those seasons have to be taken into account. Did they happen to be seasons where he was more or less juiced than others? Were they seasons earlier in his career? Were they seasons where he hardly participated because of injuries or age (sounds like it when a guy who regularly led the league in complete games only averages 17 decisions in those "seven" seasons that you picked out where his winning percentage was less.)

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 08:07 PM
As I already touched on, it's very fluky that Leake hasn't allowed more, as he has given up a very high percentage of line drives yet maintains a very low BABIP.

When you take away the notion that someone is being "fluky" or "unlucky" or "lucky" because it doesn't fit the mold of some stat, then you've found the reason why you don't understand it. You put too much value on the stat, and not enough value on the human element. As a pitcher you can control "where" a line drive is hit. One line drive hit to Stubbs or Bruce is an out or a single, where another line drive hit to Gomes is a single, Double or a Triple (or an error).

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 08:10 PM
Willis who?

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=425883

signalhome
04-26-2011, 08:52 PM
They are able to dig down deeper and get to another level that's beyond their normal capabilities. It's a warrior attitude. Men like this have been around for millenniums.

If you believe that, then we're never going to agree on any of this, so I'll just back out of this discussion. I had a bit more data to use regarding the fallacy of Wins in regards to RS/IP, but I'll just put it on the back-burner. I will say, though, that you're right, I do everything I can to place way more importance on stats than on human elements, such as my own perception. What I see can be swayed by any number of things. By focusing on stats, I minimize the element of human error.

A good example of how we make big errors in perception is how Kobe Bryant is considered to be a demi-god in clutch situations. However, when you break it all down, even with simple stats like FG%, you see that he is actually right around league average in these situations and far from being the best.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 10:10 PM
Leake ended up with an Arroyo-esque OPS-Against tonight of .815.

But, he handled it well, not allowing the Triple to score, and both homeruns were of the solo type.

7IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 6K, 2.57ERA (and one of only two hits that the REDS got in 7 innings)...

As I write this, I was expecting a pinch-hitter, but Dusty's going with Leake... (He's at 98 pitches w/ 60 for strikes). Dusty's having him bunt Janish over...or at least try to do so, as he strikes out swinging.

Kingspoint
04-26-2011, 10:27 PM
A good example of how we make big errors in perception is how Kobe Bryant is considered to be a demi-god in clutch situations. However, when you break it all down, even with simple stats like FG%, you see that he is actually right around league average in these situations and far from being the best.

As much as I hate Kobe Bryant, there isn't an NBA Player, past or present, who wouldn't want him taking the last shot of all the people who are active NBA players right now, despite his low success at hitting "game-winning" shots. But, Michael Jordan's wasn't very good, either.

LeDoux
04-27-2011, 10:25 AM
They are able to dig down deeper and get to another level that's beyond their normal capabilities. It's a warrior attitude. Men like this have been around for millenniums.

This brings me back to basic training days.

"I am an American soldier. I am a warrior and member of a team."

lonewolf371
04-27-2011, 10:51 AM
That's so true.
So why the obsession with labeling Leake, or by extension Wood, the staff ace? There is no ace on this team. There's just a bunch of major-league quality pitchers. None of them have anything that particularly sets them apart and none of them are awful (although Volquez showed some amazing stuff in his last start against the Cards before tweaking his leg). Just sit back in watch, no need to get into declarations.

Kingspoint
04-28-2011, 03:08 AM
So why the obsession with labeling Leake, or by extension Wood, the staff ace? There is no ace on this team. There's just a bunch of major-league quality pitchers. None of them have anything that particularly sets them apart and none of them are awful (although Volquez showed some amazing stuff in his last start against the Cards before tweaking his leg). Just sit back in watch, no need to get into declarations.

Just trying to give props to Leake for the Good April he's had, while taking a jab at the rest of the Starting Staff for allowing him to be at the head of the class after the first month.

Several of us knew that Volquez was never ready as he's still recovering from the injury. Whether it's mechanical or mental at this point, he's still recovering, and it will probably be at least another month before he shows the signs that he's our true ACE, our best chance at defeating Cliff Lee and/or Roy Halladay (and dem Gint's) come October.

I'm not the least bit worried that we're going to win the Division. But, I wasn't the least bit worried in 1971, either. I heavily over-estimated how good that '71 Club was going to be. They then went and made "the Great Trade", along with picking up George Foster that off-season (I think they picked up Foster late in the '71 season, but I'm not going to look it up, but they got Morgan and the "lefty" Norman during the off-season.).

Hondo
04-28-2011, 03:14 AM
This team desperatley needs to acquire an Ace to go deep in the playoffs.

lonewolf371
04-28-2011, 09:29 AM
Just trying to give props to Leake for the Good April he's had, while taking a jab at the rest of the Starting Staff for allowing him to be at the head of the class after the first month.

Several of us knew that Volquez was never ready as he's still recovering from the injury. Whether it's mechanical or mental at this point, he's still recovering, and it will probably be at least another month before he shows the signs that he's our true ACE, our best chance at defeating Cliff Lee and/or Roy Halladay (and dem Gint's) come October.

I'm not the least bit worried that we're going to win the Division. But, I wasn't the least bit worried in 1971, either. I heavily over-estimated how good that '71 Club was going to be. They then went and made "the Great Trade", along with picking up George Foster that off-season (I think they picked up Foster late in the '71 season, but I'm not going to look it up, but they got Morgan and the "lefty" Norman during the off-season.).
Well that's fine, giving him props and all. I don't mean to rag on that or anything.

I don't remember anyone saying they thought Volquez was an ace, only that he was the only one that had the potential to be one. "Ace" and "best pitcher on the team" are two totally different things. Maybe Leake has been the best pitcher on the team, but he's by no means an ace.

Hondo
04-28-2011, 02:36 PM
Well that's fine, giving him props and all. I don't mean to rag on that or anything.

I don't remember anyone saying they thought Volquez was an ace, only that he was the only one that had the potential to be one. "Ace" and "best pitcher on the team" are two totally different things. Maybe Leake has been the best pitcher on the team, but he's by no means an ace.

This team needs to keep Leake in the rotation and he will quietly win 16-18 games this season...

They guy is crafty and pitches to contact... Love him on the mound... Just not in Macys...

Kingspoint
04-28-2011, 04:36 PM
Maybe Leake has been the best pitcher on the team, but he's by no means an ace.

No argument there.

Like most people have said, we have a bunch of 3's...not even a legitimate 2.

But, because they're all young, someone is going to bust out and rise above the others.

brm7675
04-28-2011, 04:50 PM
This team desperatley needs to acquire an Ace to go deep in the playoffs.

No...no they don't. Our pitching staff is fine, our pitching staff was NOT the reason we didn't advance in the playoff last year. How many runs did our pitching staff surrender total to the Phils over the 3 games?

brm7675
04-28-2011, 04:53 PM
No argument there.

Like most people have said, we have a bunch of 3's...not even a legitimate 2.

But, because they're all young, someone is going to bust out and rise above the others.

Outside of maybe 3-4 pitchers in the NL right now, I will put our guys up against anyone. Halliday and Lee and the two kids in SF have great stuff, but outside of that I don't see any other pitcher in the NL that is better then what we have on staff

Hondo
04-28-2011, 04:55 PM
No...no they don't. Our pitching staff is fine, our pitching staff was NOT the reason we didn't advance in the playoff last year. How many runs did our pitching staff surrender total to the Phils over the 3 games?

No offense, but you are completely 100% Incorrect.

Hondo
04-28-2011, 04:56 PM
Outside of maybe 3-4 pitchers in the NL right now, I will put our guys up against anyone. Halliday and Lee and the two kids in SF have great stuff, but outside of that I don't see any other pitcher in the NL that is better then what we have on staff

Josh Johnson is pretty darn good...

brm7675
04-28-2011, 05:42 PM
No offense, but you are completely 100% Incorrect.

How am i wrong? Again what were the run totals we gave up SP wise in the 3 game set with Philly? We "lost" because we didn't score any runs, not because our pitching failed us. How has the studly pitching done for Philly so far this season? I mean with 2 great pitchers and 2 very good pitchers they should be running away with that division...yet wait, they just go punked by the D-backs with their studs pitching. They are struggling because their offense is not producing because Utley is hurt, Rollins isn't the Rollins of a few years back, they lost Werth and so on. Yes you must have quality pitching to be successful, and the Reds do.

brm7675
04-28-2011, 05:43 PM
Josh Johnson is pretty darn good...

Yes he is, but I will take Bronson or Wood over his at this point.

signalhome
04-28-2011, 05:56 PM
Yes he is, but I will take Bronson or Wood over his at this point.

You would seriously take Arroyo or Wood over Josh Johnson? We're talking about someone who has been one of the five or so best pitchers in baseball over the past couple of seasons. Just looking at ERA, Johnson is #1 in the NL so far this season and was #2 last season. From the start of 2010 until today among NL pitchers, here are his rankings in some of the more relevant pitching stats:

ERA: #1
WAR: #3 (behind Halladay and Lee)
xFIP: #3 (same)
FIP: #1
K/9: #6 (Lincecum, Kershaw, Latos, Hamels, Gallardo)
HR/9: #1

He also has posted a very good 2.36 BB/9 and a middle-of-the-pack 46.5% GB%.

Edit: Scratch that, he wasn't #2 in NL ERA last season, he was #1. For some reason I thought Wainwright finished with a better ERA.

brm7675
04-28-2011, 06:16 PM
You would seriously take Arroyo or Wood over Josh Johnson? We're talking about someone who has been one of the five or so best pitchers in baseball over the past couple of seasons. Just looking at ERA, Johnson is #1 in the NL so far this season and was #2 last season. From the start of 2010 until today among NL pitchers, here are his rankings in some of the more relevant pitching stats:

ERA: #1
WAR: #3 (behind Halladay and Lee)
xFIP: #3 (same)
FIP: #1
K/9: #6 (Lincecum, Kershaw, Latos, Hamels, Gallardo)
HR/9: #1

He also has posted a very good 2.36 BB/9 and a middle-of-the-pack 46.5% GB%.

Edit: Scratch that, he wasn't #2 in NL ERA last season, he was #1. For some reason I thought Wainwright finished with a better ERA.

Johnson has also had arm issues and at some point will miss action due to it, Bronson is a work horse, will go out and pitch and more times then not keep you in games and eat innings. I see the same from Wood, someone who isn't flashy but eats innings, keeps you in games and wait...can swing a bat. Yep sure Johnson throws hard, I want someone I can trust to get me 200+ innings year in and year out and peform.

Hondo
04-28-2011, 06:16 PM
You would seriously take Arroyo or Wood over Josh Johnson? We're talking about someone who has been one of the five or so best pitchers in baseball over the past couple of seasons. Just looking at ERA, Johnson is #1 in the NL so far this season and was #2 last season. From the start of 2010 until today among NL pitchers, here are his rankings in some of the more relevant pitching stats:

ERA: #1
WAR: #3 (behind Halladay and Lee)
xFIP: #3 (same)
FIP: #1
K/9: #6 (Lincecum, Kershaw, Latos, Hamels, Gallardo)
HR/9: #1

He also has posted a very good 2.36 BB/9 and a middle-of-the-pack 46.5% GB%.

Edit: Scratch that, he wasn't #2 in NL ERA last season, he was #1. For some reason I thought Wainwright finished with a better ERA.

Dude, you cannot reason with BRM7576

He actually thinks Paul Janish is Derek Jeter and Bronson is Josh Johnson...

I actually hope the Reds can swing a deal for Johnson or Felix Hernadez this year...

brm7675
04-28-2011, 06:18 PM
Dude, you cannot reason with BRM7576

He actually thinks Paul Janish is Derek Jeter and Bronson is Josh Johnson...

I actually hope the Reds can swing a deal for Johnson or Felix Hernadez this year...

right now Janish is leaps and bounds better then Jeter is. As for comparing Bronson and Johnson, still take Bronson...

brm7675
04-28-2011, 06:21 PM
You would seriously take Arroyo or Wood over Josh Johnson? We're talking about someone who has been one of the five or so best pitchers in baseball over the past couple of seasons. Just looking at ERA, Johnson is #1 in the NL so far this season and was #2 last season. From the start of 2010 until today among NL pitchers, here are his rankings in some of the more relevant pitching stats:

ERA: #1
WAR: #3 (behind Halladay and Lee)
xFIP: #3 (same)
FIP: #1
K/9: #6 (Lincecum, Kershaw, Latos, Hamels, Gallardo)
HR/9: #1

He also has posted a very good 2.36 BB/9 and a middle-of-the-pack 46.5% GB%.

Edit: Scratch that, he wasn't #2 in NL ERA last season, he was #1. For some reason I thought Wainwright finished with a better ERA.

I will sacrifice a bit on ERA and WAR and all those other numbers because of durability. I want a pitcher I can count on to give me inings and provide the team with a consistancy. Hard throwers like Johnson may make you go WOW when he throws, but odds are at some point he will be having his arm repaired by some great doctor....count on it.

brm7675
04-28-2011, 06:25 PM
Dude, you cannot reason with BRM7576

He actually thinks Paul Janish is Derek Jeter and Bronson is Josh Johnson...

I actually hope the Reds can swing a deal for Johnson or Felix Hernadez this year...

I am willing to guarentee, baring any horrible injury the Reds WON'T be trading for any starting pitching this season. IN fact I would not be shocked to see them maybe trade a starter for a LF bat if the chance arose, but no new SP will be traded for, there is no need.

lonewolf371
04-28-2011, 07:15 PM
I will sacrifice a bit on ERA and WAR and all those other numbers because of durability. I want a pitcher I can count on to give me inings and provide the team with a consistancy. Hard throwers like Johnson may make you go WOW when he throws, but odds are at some point he will be having his arm repaired by some great doctor....count on it.
You're not sacrificing a "little bit" on ERA and WAR. 150 IP of Josh Johnson is more valuable than 220 IP of Arroyo.

brm7675
04-28-2011, 07:27 PM
You're not sacrificing a "little bit" on ERA and WAR. 150 IP of Josh Johnson is more valuable than 220 IP of Arroyo.

Not if he is hurt or only giving you 110-140 innings. Durability and dependability is just to valuable in today's game. Also with a pitcher like JJ it is not a question of will he get hurt, but just when and how long will he be out of action. How many starts did he miss last year?

signalhome
04-28-2011, 08:10 PM
Not if he is hurt or only giving you 110-140 innings. Durability and dependability is just to valuable in today's game. Also with a pitcher like JJ it is not a question of will he get hurt, but just when and how long will he be out of action. How many starts did he miss last year?

He missed five starts, and he missed zero the year before that. He missed his final five starts last year due to back pain; I imagine that if Florida had been in serious contention (they were around ten games back at the time), he would have pitched through it. As far as I know, the only significant injury Johnson has had was in 2007, when he suffered elbow problems and underwent Tommy John surgery. Even if Johnson was a serious injury risk, which I don't totally buy, as lonewolf said, Johnson can miss quite a few starts and still be more valuable than Arroyo. I'll take 183.2 innings of 2.30 ERA/2.41 FIP ball over 215.2 innings of 3.88 ERA/4.61 FIP any day.

AintlifeGrande
04-28-2011, 08:45 PM
That aint saying a whole lot for this staff if Leake is the ace.

lonewolf371
04-28-2011, 09:40 PM
Not if he is hurt or only giving you 110-140 innings. Durability and dependability is just to valuable in today's game. Also with a pitcher like JJ it is not a question of will he get hurt, but just when and how long will he be out of action. How many starts did he miss last year?
He hasn't pitched that few innings since 2008.

brm7675
04-29-2011, 11:05 AM
That aint saying a whole lot for this staff if Leake is the ace.

Why?

AintlifeGrande
04-29-2011, 09:20 PM
Why?

We have two good starters on the shelf right now to proclaim Leake the ace.Volquez has ace stuff,and is begining to get it together.

lonewolf371
04-30-2011, 11:17 AM
Why?
Because he has the stuff of a #4 or a #5. There aren't that many aces with a 88 MPH fastball.

Maker_84
04-30-2011, 04:39 PM
This team desperatley needs to acquire an Ace to go deep in the playoffs.

or to even make the playoffs, at this pace we won't come close

Krawhitham
05-04-2011, 12:41 AM
Well the ACE and just lost his job, "Cueto to start, Leake to ‘pen"

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/05/03/cueto-to-start-leake-to-pen/

Krawhitham
05-04-2011, 12:42 AM
or to even make the playoffs, at this pace we won't come close

same record as last year

Reds
05-04-2011, 12:49 AM
Leake to bullpen, is going to be the long man, that's where he should have been from the start of the year if we were healthy. That said, this was the first game Leake ever lost in april/may during his career.. and he did a pretty good job of holding down the fort until our supposed big guns return.