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BluegrassRedleg
04-29-2011, 11:20 PM
10th HR in April. The guy is en fuego. :eek:

bounty37h
05-02-2011, 02:21 PM
Who was it on here a few months ago that was talking about how bad and overrated he is?

signalhome
05-02-2011, 06:37 PM
Who was it on here a few months ago that was talking about how bad and overrated he is?

Don't believe I ever said as much on here, but I thought the extension was a bit much for someone who has never been more than a 4.9 WAR player. However, he's definitely crushing the ball this year, as well as nearly doubling his BB%. I'm eager to see if he can put up a better UZR once he makes the inevitable move to 1B (maybe next year, since Fielder will be gone). Though his bat won't be as valuable at 1B as it is in LF, if he can play much better defense at 1B than in LF, his value could rise quite a bit. Of course, if he continues to post a .494 wOBA and 1.153 OPS (extremely unlikely, but .440/1.050 are definitely possible, as he nearly posted that in his rookie season), his value will be sky high no matter what.

lonewolf371
05-03-2011, 12:33 AM
Who was it on here a few months ago that was talking about how bad and overrated he is?
That was probably me. I saw declining power numbers for three straight years and I felt like he had traded power for average. He's totally turned that around this year, and I don't think he'll stop. There's nothing, except possibly the raw ISO, that's out-of-line with what he's capable of. The 35-40 HR range with .310 BA projected by ZiPS seems right. I'll admit my wrongness.

EDIT: Walk rate is way high. His OBP will come down below .400.

signalhome
05-03-2011, 01:25 AM
That was probably me. I saw declining power numbers for three straight years and I felt like he had traded power for average. He's totally turned that around this year, and I don't think he'll stop. There's nothing, except possibly the raw ISO, that's out-of-line with what he's capable of. The 35-40 HR range with .310 BA projected by ZiPS seems right. I'll admit my wrongness.

EDIT: Walk rate is way high. His OBP will come down below .400.

A 26.2 LD% is probably unsustainable, and so is his walk rate, so I expect to see some regression there (though, to be honest, his BABIP should be a bit higher than .351 given his LD%). Like you said, his peripheral power numbers should also take a hit; I don't think he's going to sustain a 32.3 HR/FB% on the year. All that being said, he's absolutely capable of producing just under his current numbers, so I don't expect a major regression. His defense is still hampering his overall value, though. UZR/150 of -25.1 so far, which isn't very surprising.

I can actually see him ending up a little ahead of his updated ZiPS. I hope he doesn't, considering he plays for a division rival, but I can easily see him putting up a .430 wOBA.

lonewolf371
05-03-2011, 04:54 PM
A 26.2 LD% is probably unsustainable, and so is his walk rate, so I expect to see some regression there (though, to be honest, his BABIP should be a bit higher than .351 given his LD%). Like you said, his peripheral power numbers should also take a hit; I don't think he's going to sustain a 32.3 HR/FB% on the year. All that being said, he's absolutely capable of producing just under his current numbers, so I don't expect a major regression. His defense is still hampering his overall value, though. UZR/150 of -25.1 so far, which isn't very surprising.

I can actually see him ending up a little ahead of his updated ZiPS. I hope he doesn't, considering he plays for a division rival, but I can easily see him putting up a .430 wOBA.
That's Pujols and Votto territory. I don't see him ending at .430; he won't have the OBP.

signalhome
05-03-2011, 07:53 PM
That's Pujols and Votto territory. I don't see him ending at .430; he won't have the OBP.

Probably should have worded it better; I think .430 is the ceiling for him, even with this amazing start (said .440 earlier in the thread, that was way too high). I don't think he'll end up that high, but I think it's in play. If he ends with the 9.3 BB% that ZiPS projects, and his BA is somewhere around his rookie year (.325), I think it's within reach. It's definitely much more likely that he ends up pretty close to .400.

I just realized his park adjusted batting runs above average is already over half of what it was in all of last year (16.8 so far, 33.4 last year).

Hondo
05-04-2011, 12:16 AM
That is what happens when you have protection for your #3 hitter (Prince Fielder)

Votto would have 10 HR if there was any kind of presence batting behind him...